Latest / DEEP INSIGHT / Political Pulse The question of foreign interference in Alberta's referendum

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Political Pulse The question of foreign interference in Alberta's referendum · DEEP INSIGHT

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Well, a new challenge is brewing for Prime Minister Mark
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: Carney as Quebec elects a sovereignist government.
• 0:08
  Speaker 2: We want to be at the table and not on
• 0:10
  Speaker 2: the menu.
• 0:11
  Speaker 3: Now, certain things are not negotiable.
• 0:16
  Speaker 2: No one can defend Quebec's specificity better than Quebec itself.
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: But while a separatist referendum in Quebec is put on
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: the back burner, there are signs of foreign interference in
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: that other separatist referendum that's just 10 days away.
• 0:32
  Speaker 4: The future of Canada will be decided by Canadians. We
• 0:35
  Speaker 4: can live our lives as we choose and free from
• 0:39
  Speaker 4: interference from foreign governments and large tech firms that think
• 0:44
  Speaker 4: they can tell us what to do.
• 0:45
  Speaker 5: We need to spend less time worrying about silly tweets
• 0:49
  Speaker 5: by people who have no power over what Canadians do.
• 0:52
  Speaker 5: Canadians control their own destiny.
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: All of this as the possibility of a major legal
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: fight over the future of the Hamilton Steel Plant simmers.
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: I expect them to keep the jobs, period.
• 1:04
  Speaker 3: They need to comply. If not, we will use the
• 1:07
  Speaker 3: full force of the law.
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: If the private sector is going to be manipulating and
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: taking taxpayer dollars and then running away, then maybe the
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: government should step in.
• 1:17
  Speaker 5: File the lawsuit at 5 a.m. on Monday morning to
• 1:21
  Speaker 5: fight for the jobs of Stelco workers.
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: All of those battles as the economy sheds thousands of jobs,
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: wiping out all of the employment gains made throughout this
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: entire year.
• 1:32
  Speaker 6: There's a lot facing the government, and we're going to
• 1:34
  Speaker 6: talk about it all, or at least most of it.
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: With our party insiders. Greg McEachran is here. He's a
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: former liberal ministerial advisor. Fred Delory is a former conservative
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: campaign manager.
• 1:42
  Speaker 6: And Emma Grath is a former director of the New
• 1:45
  Speaker 6: Democratic Party. Lots on the menu this week. Greg, your
• 1:51
  Speaker 6: thoughts on Quebec.
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: A 28% vote share delivering minority PQ government. Sovereignty pushed
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: off until Trump leaves, but another challenge for the Prime
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: Minister with a new issue at the First Minister's table.
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: The clip you played about the table and menu, very familiar.
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, even en français.
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: So the premier and premier-elect won a minority with 28%
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: of the vote. And Keir Starmer won a majority with
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: 33% of the vote. And I think if I was
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: advising the premier-elect.
• 2:29
  Speaker 6: Of Quebec, I would... Premier-designate, I have to say. Premier-designate.
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: Sorry.
• 2:32
  Speaker 6: Thank you. The purists will come at me, so go ahead. Apologies, nerds.
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: And also, go outside. I would look at that, where
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: a case of people in the U.K. wanted to change...
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: But Keir Starmer didn't seem to be the change that
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: they wanted. 88% of Quebecers in a poll by Main
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: Street Company after the Annexit online poll said that they
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: said it was very important that Quebec get along with
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: the federal government, with Prime Minister Carney.
• 3:05
  Speaker 6: He did play a.
• 3:05
  Speaker 2: Little bait and switch, I feel, by saying that he
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: would not call for a referendum as long as... Trump
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: was in the White House. So you've got a little
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: bit of everything. You could hear what you wanted there.
• 3:18
  Speaker 2: If you're a hardcore separatist, he wasn't putting it off.
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: But a lot of people thought that he was recognizing
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: that it was very unpopular. Even some of his own
• 3:26
  Speaker 2: supporters aren't in favor of that. The other thing is,
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: you know, he was talking this week about trying to
• 3:32
  Speaker 2: prevent the lieutenant governor from going to a swearing-in. That
• 3:35
  Speaker 2: is not what Quebecers care about right now.
• 3:37
  Speaker 6: Well, we'll see where that goes.
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: But, you know, Fred, I have no idea who's going
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: to be in the White House after Trump. You know,
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: maybe it could be worse for Quebec.
• 3:44
  Speaker 6: I mean, I have no idea.
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: But he has the opportunity, Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon, now to
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: take that 28 percent.
• 3:49
  Speaker 6: Try to drive it up.
• 3:50
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 3:51
  Speaker 6: And he's got the big chair and the big platform
• 3:53
  Speaker 6: by which to do it.
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: So how should Mark Carney and others approach him?
• 3:57
  Speaker 6: To not make it worse on the sovereignty front.
• 3:59
  Speaker 4: Right.
• 4:00
  Speaker 7: Yeah, when you have the levers of power, you have
• 4:02
  Speaker 7: the ability to start doing stuff. And typically when a
• 4:05
  Speaker 7: government comes in, even if they weren't that high in
• 4:07
  Speaker 7: the polls, they do rise up their first year and
• 4:09
  Speaker 7: they have that honeymoon period. For the Prime Minister and
• 4:12
  Speaker 7: all the other premiers, you know, we are all in
• 4:15
  Speaker 7: this together and dealing with a major trade issue and
• 4:18
  Speaker 7: they've got to find common ground on what works. And
• 4:20
  Speaker 7: it seems, you know, the premier-designate is saying the right
• 4:24
  Speaker 7: things in terms of Putting this referendum aside, the thing
• 4:29
  Speaker 7: is with the referendum, it's not popular at all, Trump
• 4:32
  Speaker 7: or no Trump. It was near historic lows. His party
• 4:36
  Speaker 7: got 28%. This was not a resounding victory. There's five, well,
• 4:41
  Speaker 7: I guess four parties now that the CAAC didn't even
• 4:43
  Speaker 7: win a seat. That party looks like it's probably dead.
• 4:47
  Speaker 7: So the game there, I mean, it's a minority government.
• 4:49
  Speaker 7: They're going to have to make deals with the Quebec solidaire,
• 4:52
  Speaker 7: the conservatives, the liberals. So even in his own backyard,
• 4:56
  Speaker 7: him dealing with Carney is one thing. He's got to
• 4:58
  Speaker 7: deal with his own parliament.
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: It is amazing to see an election where nobody broke 30%.
• 5:02
  Speaker 7: It is.
• 5:03
  Speaker 6: In Canada. So it gives the PQ the win and
• 5:07
  Speaker 6: gives them the government.
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: You don't really have that big, powerful mandate to go
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: with your full agenda like that, right?
• 5:14
  Speaker 6: Even if you wanted to do it.
• 5:15
  Speaker 3: Yeah, he's going to have to work with the other parties.
• 5:17
  Speaker 3: He's going to have to work with the federal government. And,
• 5:20
  Speaker 3: you know, I mean, I may regret saying this, but
• 5:22
  Speaker 3: I find it highly unlikely that there will be a
• 5:25
  Speaker 3: sovereignty referendum in Quebec. It's a minority, as we've said, it's,
• 5:30
  Speaker 3: you know, with a very low plurality. or not even,
• 5:34
  Speaker 3: and generally speaking, minority governments don't last much beyond about
• 5:38
  Speaker 3: two years. I don't see any party in that legislature,
• 5:42
  Speaker 3: in that House of Assembly, that is likely to make
• 5:45
  Speaker 3: any kind of a deal with them.
• 5:47
  Speaker 6: None of them will make it. I think you'll see
• 5:49
  Speaker 6: issue-by-issue deals, right? Yes, exactly.
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: It's going to be very much pre-supply and confidence type parliament, right?
• 5:55
  Speaker 3: It'll be case-by-case. None of the other parties are going
• 5:57
  Speaker 3: to want to go to an election right away, but
• 5:58
  Speaker 3: there comes a point in a minority government where... there
• 6:01
  Speaker 3: are parties that do want to go to an election.
• 6:03
  Speaker 3: And that will likely happen before there's any possibility of
• 6:06
  Speaker 3: him putting a referendum forward if he keeps his word
• 6:09
  Speaker 3: and doesn't trigger anything while Trump is still in office.
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: Well, there's a world, and just to close the loop
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: on this, where you could see the Liberals at 40
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: and the Conservatives in Quebec having 40 seats.
• 6:18
  Speaker 6: I'm talking about the Quebec Liberals.
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: And 19 for the surging Quebec Conservatives. They may very
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: well want to do it because they see a chance
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: to consolidate and grow from where they're at, and the
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: Liberals might have a shot at government.
• 6:31
  Speaker 3: You mean the Liberals joining with the Conservatives?
• 6:34
  Speaker 6: No, no, no, bringing it down. You know what I mean? Eventually,
• 6:37
  Speaker 6: that's a scenario that could play out.
• 6:39
  Speaker 3: I absolutely can see that. I can see them wanting
• 6:41
  Speaker 3: to do that. That's actually a very likely scenario, I think.
• 6:46
  Speaker 3: I think it's very possible that that could happen. In
• 6:48
  Speaker 3: the meantime, I believe that focusing so much on the sovereignty...
• 6:54
  Speaker 3: you know, threat in a lot of ways is I
• 6:57
  Speaker 3: hope it doesn't give the PQ carte blanche on some
• 7:01
  Speaker 3: of the other things that we don't pay enough attention
• 7:04
  Speaker 3: to other things like their restrictions on immigration, like what
• 7:08
  Speaker 3: they end up doing with the health care system, which
• 7:10
  Speaker 3: is in a bit of a crisis, health and education
• 7:12
  Speaker 3: are in a crisis in Quebec. And that's, I think,
• 7:15
  Speaker 3: what people should be, I'm hoping, will be focused on
• 7:17
  Speaker 3: more than the illusory referendum.
• 7:20
  Speaker 5: Right.
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: So, Greg, we have a scenario now where the prime minister,
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: once the premier-designate becomes the premier, will have, as Jean-Francois
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: Lisée said to me the other day, the former leader
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: of the PQ, if you thought Daniel Smith was a.
• 7:31
  Speaker 6: Tough customer, just wait. He's going to have to deal
• 7:34
  Speaker 6: with both.
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: And we have the referendum coming up in Alberta in
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: about 10 days. All of this online and in person,
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: meddling by foreign actors. What does the Prime Minister.
• 7:44
  Speaker 6: And his government need to do in the next 10 days?
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: Do you think we see Mark Carney hit the road,
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: go to Alberta, hold some rallies, give some speeches, make
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: the case? How do you push back against the nefarious
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: online stuff?
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  Speaker 2: The challenge in both cases, Quebec and Alberta, is if
• 7:58
  Speaker 2: the enemy is the federal government, does any action create
• 8:03
  Speaker 2: the repercussions create an even worse scenario? It's really challenging
• 8:10
  Speaker 2: in Alberta because You feel that the premier has not
• 8:13
  Speaker 2: been fully engaged on this? I mean, she did talk,
• 8:16
  Speaker 2: I think, in August about foreign interference. But if we
• 8:18
  Speaker 2: go back to March of 2025 and her interview with Breitbart,
• 8:22
  Speaker 2: her reasoning for telling the Trump government to cool it
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: with tariffs was that that was going to aid the
• 8:29
  Speaker 2: Liberal government into being reelected. So her motivation was not
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: about the impact of what the tariffs were going to
• 8:36
  Speaker 2: do to the economy in her province and to the country.
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: It was more that she did not want to have
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: a Liberal government And so when you have somebody that partisan,
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: you really wonder how fixated they are on this. I mean,
• 8:47
  Speaker 2: Jason Kenney opened the door to this with the referendum
• 8:50
  Speaker 2: style and the separatists have walked through it. And they
• 8:53
  Speaker 2: have said no matter what the premier says about the future,
• 8:57
  Speaker 2: you know, the separatist leaders have said, well, it doesn't
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: matter what the result is. We're not giving up.
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: Yeah. And they may, you know, make efforts to take
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: over riding associations, force leadership challenges. But, you know, Fred,
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: we're a long way from March 2025 in terms of
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: the relationship between Daniel Smith and Mark Carney. I mean,
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: he may have the highest approval rating of any politician
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: in Alberta right now, and he's getting the matching set
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: of pipelines, you know, if everything goes ahead. So there's
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: proof points and credibility he can bring to us. I mean,
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: what would you advise, you know, any prime minister to
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: do in the time that's left to let vote?
• 9:29
  Speaker 7: Well, I think they're doing it or have done it.
• 9:31
  Speaker 7: Good policy is good politics. The stuff they've done on
• 9:34
  Speaker 7: the pipelines, today I saw Premier Smith congratulating the government
• 9:39
  Speaker 7: on working with them on the appointment of judges in Alberta.
• 9:41
  Speaker 7: That was something that's been bothering a lot of the
• 9:44
  Speaker 7: government there, and they addressed it in some way. Things
• 9:48
  Speaker 7: like that go an incredibly long way. When you have
• 9:50
  Speaker 7: an issue with Ottawa, if that's the main enemy that
• 9:53
  Speaker 7: many of them see, and if Ottawa comes in as
• 9:55
  Speaker 7: a real partner and is doing things, it takes that
• 9:57
  Speaker 7: enemy away. So that shifts the game. You know, having rallies,
• 10:00
  Speaker 7: doing all that thing, I don't know if that's necessary
• 10:03
  Speaker 7: at all for the Prime Minister to do. I think
• 10:05
  Speaker 7: it's now there may be something coming together. There usually
• 10:07
  Speaker 7: is a few days before a referendum, at least in
• 10:10
  Speaker 7: Canada's history in Quebec. But again, good policy is good politics,
• 10:13
  Speaker 7: and they seem to be doing very well on that front.
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: The concern, though, and you've run way more elections than
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: I have, The concern for some of the remain, to
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: use the Brexit terms, is that motivation on that side
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: might not be there. So do you do these sort
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: of traditional get out the vote, rally the truth things,
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: if you're concerned about motivation?
• 10:31
  Speaker 7: Yeah, there's a number of groups organized in Alberta doing that.
• 10:34
  Speaker 7: I know Jason Kenney is a member of one that's
• 10:36
  Speaker 7: pushing out, you know, doing voter ID and doing GOTV.
• 10:39
  Speaker 7: Those are absolutely key things. And elections can flip very
• 10:42
  Speaker 7: easily if no one's paying attention, despite where the public
• 10:45
  Speaker 7: may be. So absolutely, there needs to be the ground
• 10:47
  Speaker 7: game performed.
• 10:48
  Speaker 6: Yeah, we're not talking about British Columbia, but that's a
• 10:50
  Speaker 6: good point. We've got an actual BC panel coming.
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: But, you know, and it is a rare moment in
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: history where a liberal prime minister... is an asset politically in.
• 11:01
  Speaker 6: The province of Alberta, right?
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: You know, and, you know, it seems weird to say
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: that out loud, but he is maybe the best argument,
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: maybe the best vehicle for the pro-Canadian argument right now.
• 11:12
  Speaker 3: Well, certainly for a Liberal prime minister to be this
• 11:15
  Speaker 3: popular for this long. I mean, I will say that
• 11:18
  Speaker 3: Justin Trudeau was fairly popular at the very beginning.
• 11:21
  Speaker 6: Yes, he had his moments.
• 11:22
  Speaker 3: And then incredibly unpopular after a certain period of time.
• 11:25
  Speaker 3: But he was, he certainly was at the very beginning.
• 11:28
  Speaker 3: I think that the SEP, pro-convoy separatist folks have already
• 11:32
  Speaker 3: taken over that party, taken over EDAs. And it's been
• 11:37
  Speaker 3: very well litigated that the reason that this is happening
• 11:41
  Speaker 3: is because Danielle Smith is trying to control, trying to
• 11:44
  Speaker 3: deal with her party. It's not because it's a massive
• 11:46
  Speaker 3: thing in Alberta and all the polling shows that. There
• 11:49
  Speaker 3: is also a lot of interest and a lot of motivation.
• 11:52
  Speaker 3: I know people have been worried about that, about voter
• 11:53
  Speaker 3: turnout and whether or not the The federalist folks will
• 11:56
  Speaker 3: come out and vote. I think there's, I mean, there
• 11:58
  Speaker 3: were 670,000 mail-in ballots sent out. Now only half of
• 12:03
  Speaker 3: them have so far been returned, and today is sort
• 12:05
  Speaker 3: of the deadline for that. I also think that there
• 12:07
  Speaker 3: will be long lineups at the polling stations. My worry
• 12:11
  Speaker 3: is whether or not Elections Alberta is going to be
• 12:15
  Speaker 3: able to manage all of this, whether they can manage
• 12:18
  Speaker 3: the volume of the mail-in ballots, whether they can manage
• 12:21
  Speaker 3: the voting, and they have to vote, but they have
• 12:24
  Speaker 3: to count by hand and they have a deadline by
• 12:26
  Speaker 3: which they have to have the results ready. So there
• 12:28
  Speaker 3: could be chaos.
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: Yeah, there's 10 different ballots, and the voting happens on Monday,
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: but they don't have to have all the results until
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: the Wednesday. But they're going to count the referendum one first,
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: is my understanding, because that's the one people are going
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: to want.
• 12:42
  Speaker 3: But I think people are motivated to vote. I think
• 12:45
  Speaker 3: that it has to be made easy for them to
• 12:49
  Speaker 3: do so.
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: Yes, and some people, based on what we saw in
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: Calgary Shaw and what we're seeing in the top-line polling
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: numbers from Leger and Angus Reid and everything, they might
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: be vote-motivated to send a message to Daniel Smith as
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: much as to the federal government on the other side. So, look,
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: while all that is happening, the legitimate campaigning, Greg, there's
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: all of the, like, Elon Musk sent out a tweet
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: saying everybody should separate.
• 13:07
  Speaker 6: I don't think that changes anyone's minds. But, you know,
• 13:10
  Speaker 6: I was talking about this.
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: With Jody Thomas, a former national security advisor. It's the
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: weight of the algorithm that can be brought to an argument.
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: It's the weight of all the tech platforms that can
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: be brought to the argument. And, you know, Dominic Le
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: Bon was saying to me this week that, you know,
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: he was with Jean Chrétien in 1995 when the Quebec
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: referendum result was coming in. And now he wonders how
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: that could have been different with misinformation and disinformation, the
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: decline of media, the rise of social media. Don't know
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: if it matters on the 19th, but it is the
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: new reality. Everybody's got to figure out how to deal
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: with in these referendums in particular.
• 13:41
  Speaker 6: Yeah, I saw that interview.
• 13:43
  Speaker 2: I also picked up, I missed it the first time around,
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: but the book that Chantal Hébert and Jean-Lapierre wrote about,
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: you know, I think it's the day after, the morning after,
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: and it's a really good discussion of the referendum. And
• 13:57
  Speaker 2: there were lots of questions afterwards about how much the
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: federal government, the federal liberals should have been in or
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: should not have been in. I attended the referendum rally.
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: I still see differing views about whether or not all
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: Canadians should going to Montreal was a good thing or not.
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: I'm trying to think about, as a university student standing
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: in that referendum rally, and if we had all had
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: phones that we could, you know, speak to each other.
• 14:21
  Speaker 2: But on top of it, I mean, last month, you know,
• 14:25
  Speaker 2: the Premier of Alberta talked about how, you know, they
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: are seeing misinformation. The Conservative MPs were very, very quiet
• 14:34
  Speaker 2: on this until recently. It was only when Natural Resources...
• 14:38
  Speaker 2: was being brought up and spoken about as being on
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: the table that seemed to motivate some of them. So
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: there are, I think, a ton of missed opportunities where
• 14:49
  Speaker 2: misinformation and disinformation was allowed to creep.
• 14:51
  Speaker 6: Into this already.
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: And I do hope that Anne is right, that the
• 14:57
  Speaker 2: sense of the people of Alberta is where you think
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: it is, where I hope it is.
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: But, you know, Fred, I wonder about how You know,
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: in campaigning, you're building your narrative, you're making your arguments
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: and laying out.
• 15:08
  Speaker 6: The facts as you see them.
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: Facts are just, they're subjective now in the world of
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: social media and algorithms. So if this ability to just,
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: you know, flood the bloodstream of an election cycle with
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: whatever you want to pollute it with, which is what
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: we're seeing on some of these platforms, I mean, how
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: does that affect your ability to get the argument out,
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: to make the case, to reach the voters? Because they
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: may have a different set of algorithms, which means a
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: different reality than the one you're trying to campaign in.
• 15:35
  Speaker 7: You have to keep adjusting and finding ways through it.
• 15:37
  Speaker 7: Every campaign, there's an evolution in how it's done. My
• 15:40
  Speaker 7: first national campaign was 20 years ago. Very different than
• 15:43
  Speaker 7: my last one just a few years ago. We didn't
• 15:46
  Speaker 7: have cell phones, the first one. The game is constantly
• 15:49
  Speaker 7: changing and will always change. And you have to adapt
• 15:50
  Speaker 7: with the technology, for good or for bad. Wherever it's going,
• 15:53
  Speaker 7: you have to go in there and try to find.
• 15:55
  Speaker 7: And when it comes down to politics and campaigns, it's
• 15:57
  Speaker 7: very simple. Try to find who your voters are, talk
• 15:59
  Speaker 7: to them, and get them out. You have to break
• 16:01
  Speaker 7: through whatever walls are put up to do so.
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: And in a situation like a referendum, though, where it's
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: a binary, right? And it's really, you know, it's not
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: so much political parties, but a political choice being put
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: to the population. Tough to hack an election, multi-parties, regional variances,
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: and all these sorts of things. But a 50% plus
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: one winner takes all dynamic like a referendum becomes.
• 16:21
  Speaker 6: A thing you can influence.
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: I mean, do you think our electoral agencies and everything
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: are just equipped to deal with what could potentially happen,
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: especially once AI just goes completely nuclear?
• 16:30
  Speaker 3: Well, I think there's a danger that they aren't, for sure.
• 16:33
  Speaker 3: And that is definitely something that we have to pay
• 16:35
  Speaker 3: attention to in the Alberta referendum, because I do believe
• 16:40
  Speaker 3: that there are external forces who are trying to operate
• 16:44
  Speaker 3: in there. And, I mean, there's evidence of that, right?
• 16:46
  Speaker 3: And you're right that the, you know, I'm happy to
• 16:48
  Speaker 3: hear that there were no cell phones on Fred's first
• 16:50
  Speaker 3: campaign because I thought he was a lot younger than me. But,
• 16:55
  Speaker 3: you know, I mean, I remember when I thought that
• 16:58
  Speaker 3: the biggest advance in campaign technology was the Post-it note.
• 17:02
  Speaker 3: You know, it's like things have changed a lot and
• 17:05
  Speaker 3: there are, it is harder to interpret the results of
• 17:10
  Speaker 3: research on what voters are going to do and those
• 17:13
  Speaker 3: kinds of things. I mean, we see this in the
• 17:14
  Speaker 3: United States where, when people talk about how badly Trump
• 17:18
  Speaker 3: is going to do, but there is a kind of
• 17:20
  Speaker 3: a hidden Trump factor that sometimes doesn't show up, right?
• 17:24
  Speaker 3: And so, and that could be, there could be some
• 17:26
  Speaker 3: of that as well happening in Alberta.
• 17:27
  Speaker 6: Yeah.
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: I just wonder long-term about our ability to have like
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: a collective conversation about a common set of problems and
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: a common set of facts and then argue over the
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: solutions because we're arguing over whether a problem is a problem,
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: whether a fact is a fact and how do you
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: even get to, to fixing stuff, right?
• 17:41
  Speaker 6: And, uh, I don't know.
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: Maybe I'm too doom and gloom on that, but there
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: we are.
• 17:45
  Speaker 6: Look, I want to switch to something.
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: Conservative leader Pierre Palliev, he was out today, and he
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: was asked about the most recent member of Parliament to
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: leave his caucus.
• 17:52
  Speaker 6: This is Scott Aitchison.
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: And some reporting that others may be planning their exit
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: because of the prospect of a long period in opposition.
• 17:59
  Speaker 6: Take a listen to the response.
• 18:01
  Speaker 5: You know, the last year and a half, the media
• 18:03
  Speaker 5: has asked about me, but they don't ask Prime Minister
• 18:05
  Speaker 5: Carney about the people that left his caucus, the people
• 18:08
  Speaker 5: that are losing their jobs. the people who are on
• 18:11
  Speaker 5: the other side of the water, who don't know how
• 18:13
  Speaker 5: they're going to pay their bills. I think we have
• 18:15
  Speaker 5: to focus on the real lives of real people. Frankly,
• 18:19
  Speaker 5: some of this stuff might be very interesting, this smallitics
• 18:22
  Speaker 5: might be very interesting on Parliament Hill, but what we
• 18:25
  Speaker 5: need to do is focus on saving Canadians money and jobs,
• 18:29
  Speaker 5: giving young people hope that they'll be able to have
• 18:31
  Speaker 5: homes and start families, Those are the real problems of
• 18:35
  Speaker 5: real people, and it would be nice if Mark Carney
• 18:37
  Speaker 5: would actually get some real questions from the media about that.
• 18:41
  Speaker 6: And what do you make of that?
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: I mean, is there too much focus on small ball?
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: Is he just getting defensive there? Because the prime minister
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: takes a lot of questions and gets a lot of questions.
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: Just what do you make of what we saw there?
• 18:52
  Speaker 3: So I am kind of sympathetic to the idea that
• 18:55
  Speaker 3: sometimes you get asked questions that don't seem to be
• 18:57
  Speaker 3: about the most.
• 18:58
  Speaker 6: Important issues, right?
• 18:59
  Speaker 3: But he's the leader of a party, and he does
• 19:02
  Speaker 3: have people who are leaving, and he does have to
• 19:04
  Speaker 3: answer that question. What he did there, aside from, you know,
• 19:07
  Speaker 3: like turning on a reporter, as he has done many
• 19:09
  Speaker 3: times before, but what he did there was take something
• 19:12
  Speaker 3: that he could have easily batted away and turned it
• 19:15
  Speaker 3: into an issue. That actually sort of gives us more
• 19:19
  Speaker 3: of a display of who he is than what the
• 19:21
  Speaker 3: issues are that he was trying to highlight. And it's
• 19:23
  Speaker 3: also so much of it is not true. I mean,
• 19:25
  Speaker 3: you know, all leaders get asked when people leave their,
• 19:28
  Speaker 3: you know, No matter which party.
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: Stephen Guilbeault, Bill Blair, Christopher Freeland, Jonathan Wilkinson.
• 19:34
  Speaker 6: Yes, they were all passed on.
• 19:35
  Speaker 3: You get asked those questions and you have to answer
• 19:37
  Speaker 3: them and then find a way to answer them so
• 19:40
  Speaker 3: that you can then move on to what it is
• 19:41
  Speaker 3: that you really want to talk about instead of what
• 19:43
  Speaker 3: he did there, which was to actually make that the issue.
• 19:46
  Speaker 6: I do think small ethics is a clever turn of phrase.
• 19:48
  Speaker 6: I will give him that. Oh, he's a great... he's
• 19:50
  Speaker 6: great at turns of phrase. Greg, what are your thoughts
• 19:52
  Speaker 6: on that? I mean, I don't know how to interpret that.
• 19:56
  Speaker 6: What do you make of it?
• 19:58
  Speaker 2: I have no experience as a Liberal where the leader
• 20:01
  Speaker 2: would consistently get asked questions about, you know, and he
• 20:05
  Speaker 2: enjoyed that very, very much just, you know, two short
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: years ago. So I do think it speaks to the
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: way he became leader and that the fact that the
• 20:13
  Speaker 2: Liberals polling, you know, started to go very, very, very,
• 20:17
  Speaker 2: very down. And he benefited from that. But he still
• 20:19
  Speaker 2: sounds like 2024. When he was talking today about what
• 20:24
  Speaker 2: Minister Jolie has to do, and I thought, who are
• 20:26
  Speaker 2: you speaking on behalf of? An incredible shrinking caucus. You
• 20:29
  Speaker 2: have 28% in the polls. And you sound like these
• 20:33
  Speaker 2: demands are, you know, you're so forceful. It sounds exactly
• 20:36
  Speaker 2: like he was a couple years ago. And when people
• 20:38
  Speaker 2: wanted change, they would listen to short messages that just
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: were more about rhetoric. They don't listen to that now
• 20:45
  Speaker 2: in the same way. And look, in opposition, there are
• 20:48
  Speaker 2: plenty of things that you could do. And we've talked
• 20:50
  Speaker 2: a lot about how the Conservatives just make noise. Recently,
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: when seafood was going to be in a retaliatory tariff
• 20:59
  Speaker 2: and was removed... Justin Ling mentioned that in his column
• 21:03
  Speaker 2: last weekend. I talked to an Atlantic Liberal MP this week,
• 21:06
  Speaker 2: and they were working furiously internally to get that done.
• 21:11
  Speaker 2: And they were sure that Conservative MPs were going to
• 21:13
  Speaker 2: beat them to the punch and make it a public issue,
• 21:17
  Speaker 2: which they could have easily done and taken credit for it.
• 21:19
  Speaker 6: But they never did.
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: There are things that they could be doing, concrete things,
• 21:24
  Speaker 2: and they don't seem to be.
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: Yeah, the reference to Jolie, Fred, just for people at home,
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: is Melanie Jolie has sent a letter to the parent
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: company of Stelco, giving them until Tuesday to rescind their
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: layoffs or face legal action.
• 21:37
  Speaker 6: Pierre Palaio says, sue them Monday.
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know if Monday, Tuesday makes a
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: big difference there, but it's like someone bids $ 1, 000 on
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: the prices, right, and you.
• 21:44
  Speaker 6: Bid $ 1, 001.
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: But the pushback there and the frustration, is that just
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: the inability to set the narrative anymore, set the agenda
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: come into play, or why do you think it is?
• 21:54
  Speaker 7: Yeah, look, it's All of our issues boiling to the
• 21:56
  Speaker 7: top right now. There's no question morale is very bad
• 21:59
  Speaker 7: in caucus. We've lost our eighth member, and there's rumors
• 22:02
  Speaker 7: of more to go. We're not in a good spot.
• 22:05
  Speaker 7: As Greg pointed out, 28% in the polls. Now, you
• 22:07
  Speaker 7: can't form government with 28%. Yes, you can. We're not
• 22:12
  Speaker 7: in a good spot, and it is frustrating to be
• 22:15
  Speaker 7: asked those questions. You are doing an important announcement that
• 22:18
  Speaker 7: you are trying to discuss and get people focused on.
• 22:23
  Speaker 7: but this is... When you don't have stability in your
• 22:26
  Speaker 7: own backyard, you're going to get asked these questions, and
• 22:29
  Speaker 7: that's the state of play right now for the Conservative
• 22:31
  Speaker 7: Party at a national level.
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: So how should they be dealing with it going forward? Because,
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: you know, Scott Aitchison, he's number eight. There's probably a
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: number nine. There's probably a number ten, right? Like, you know,
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: there's four elections now and still in opposition, and people
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: just may make choices. He's going to be asked it again.
• 22:47
  Speaker 6: I mean, what's the answer the next time? Because it
• 22:49
  Speaker 6: can't just be picking a fight.
• 22:51
  Speaker 7: He needs to find a path... to get his party
• 22:55
  Speaker 7: to be in a much better spot than they are now,
• 22:57
  Speaker 7: and to have caucus united with him to do that.
• 23:00
  Speaker 7: Until he does that, and he has not been doing that,
• 23:02
  Speaker 7: until he does that, this stuff is going to keep happening.
• 23:06
  Speaker 7: To your question about how he should answer these questions,
• 23:08
  Speaker 7: he should just pivot off of it quickly and get
• 23:09
  Speaker 7: back to the issue, as most politicians are very, very
• 23:12
  Speaker 7: able to do, and he should be able to do that.
• 23:15
  Speaker 7: But you could sense his frustration with this. But this
• 23:17
  Speaker 7: is frustration... It's directed at the media, but he must
• 23:19
  Speaker 7: be feeling it within his own caucus right now.
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I was seeing an answer where Scott Aitken is
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: leaving to pursue other opportunities, but he's making that choice.
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: The people here aren't being given a choice. They're just
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: being given a layoff and blah, blah, blah, right? You
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: can then pivot onto your core message, but I don't know.
• 23:34
  Speaker 6: We'll see. I mean, next time he's on the show,
• 23:36
  Speaker 6: we can go through it maybe, and we'll talk about
• 23:38
  Speaker 6: it together there. All right. We've got to say goodbye.
• 23:41
  Speaker 6: We're out of time. It's good to see you all.
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: Fred Delorey, Greg McEachern, and Anne McGrath filling in for
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: Mel this week.