Latest / The Front / Island meltdown: China’s massive blow-up rocks the Pacific

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Island meltdown: China’s massive blow-up rocks the Pacific · The Front

• 0:05
  Speaker 1: From The Australian, here's what's on the front. I'm Claire Harvey.
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  Speaker 1: It's Tuesday, September 1, 2026. Trouble in paradise as China
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  Speaker 1: throws a huge tantrum about Pacific Island leaders meeting to
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  Speaker 1: discuss regional security. And suddenly a bunch of prime ministers
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  Speaker 1: are cancelling. So what's going on? Ben Packham's here in
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  Speaker 1: just a moment. Palau is one of the most beautiful
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  Speaker 1: places on Earth, and it's also one of the most
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  Speaker 1: strategically vulnerable. It was a base for Japan during World
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  Speaker 1: War II. Now it's a base for snorkelers and scuba
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  Speaker 1: divers who come to explore its beautiful waters. Also there
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  Speaker 1: are a bunch of journalists and politicians now, including Ben Packham,
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  Speaker 1: the Australian's foreign affairs and defence correspondent. Ben, this is
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  Speaker 1: the Pacific Islands Forum. It's a big deal, and this
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  Speaker 1: year there's a big stink on about Taiwan.
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  Speaker 2: Why?
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  Speaker 3: The problem is really just because Taiwan is here.
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  Speaker 4: China does not want any countries to have diplomatic relations
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  Speaker 4: with Taiwan. But there are three countries in the Pacific
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  Speaker 4: that do. And one of those is Palau. And Taiwan's
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  Speaker 4: foreign minister is in Palau to attend the PIF meeting.
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  Speaker 4: And that is causing some angst.
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  Speaker 1: Taiwan is a particular red rag to China because it
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  Speaker 1: believes that there's only one China and it's definitely not Taiwan.
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  Speaker 1: Now a bunch of prime ministers and delegations from the
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  Speaker 1: region are either pulling out or changing who's showing up.
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  Speaker 1: Do you detect some Chinese pressure on those countries, Ben?
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  Speaker 3: Well, absolutely. I mean, in particular, Solomon Islands.
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  Speaker 4: So no sooner had Solomon's prime minister, Matthew Wale, arrived
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  Speaker 4: in Palau on the weekend that he learned that his
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  Speaker 4: leadership was being challenged in a vote of no confidence
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  Speaker 4: or motion of no confidence, and he was forced to
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  Speaker 4: turn around very quickly. that challenge is seen as a
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  Speaker 4: sort of, particularly the timing of it, is seen as
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  Speaker 4: very much influenced by Beijing, which maintains very close relations
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  Speaker 4: to some members of the Solomon Islands government still. And
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  Speaker 4: so rather than be in Palau to advance his proposal
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  Speaker 4: for a region-wide security agreement, Solomon's prime minister, who's only
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  Speaker 4: been in for three months, has been forced to go
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  Speaker 4: back to Honiara to basically defend his position. So he's out,
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  Speaker 4: There's a number of other leaders out. Samoa's prime minister
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  Speaker 4: is not attending due to illness. Vanuatu's prime minister won't
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  Speaker 4: be here. Kiribati, very close to China, Kiribati has said
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  Speaker 4: it's not coming. It's sent an official rather than its leader.
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  Speaker 4: And there are also question marks over Nauru. We have
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  Speaker 4: not had a confirmation yet whether Nauru is here. Fiji's
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  Speaker 4: Siddhivani Rambuka may turn up for the final powwow, but
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  Speaker 4: tensions are pretty high in the region at the moment,
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  Speaker 4: particularly after that Chinese missile launch a few months back
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  Speaker 4: on which the forum was unable to get a consensus
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  Speaker 4: statement or agree to a consensus statement of condemnation because
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  Speaker 4: Kiribati and Nauru refused to sign.
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  Speaker 5: China's military has conducted a test launch of a ballistic
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  Speaker 5: missile with a dummy warhead in the South Pacific Ocean.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, it seems awfully coincidental that all these prime ministers
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  Speaker 1: are suddenly discovering they've got urgent parliamentary sittings at home
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  Speaker 1: or they're not feeling well. This does seem like a
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  Speaker 1: massive snub to the Pacific Islands Forum and to Palau,
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  Speaker 1: which is very sensitive in this region where face and
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  Speaker 1: manners are very important, Ben, right?
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  Speaker 4: Yeah, look, this is geopolitics up close and personal. I mean,
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  Speaker 4: the UN, it's all very sort of formal and at
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  Speaker 4: a distance. Once you get down to this level of architecture,
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  Speaker 4: you can see people up front. You're going to have
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  Speaker 4: the Taiwanese foreign minister and the Chinese Pacific envoy on
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  Speaker 4: this very small island. Great prospect for clashes and blowups.
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  Speaker 4: I suspect that these tensions will come to a head.
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  Speaker 4: during the week and we will see some sort of
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  Speaker 4: blow-up or another.
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  Speaker 1: The last time we had you on the front was
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  Speaker 1: to talk about the Chinese ballistic missile test where they
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  Speaker 1: test-fired a nuclear-capable submarine-launched ballistic missile carrying a dummy warhead
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  Speaker 1: into international waters in the South Pacific.
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  Speaker 5: Despite Beijing describing it as a routine military exercise, it
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  Speaker 5: comes just hours after Australia and Fiji signed a significant
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  Speaker 5: defence treaty.
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  Speaker 1: Now, you broke that story before it even happened, Ben,
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  Speaker 1: which was pretty incredible. But the fallout from that is
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  Speaker 1: still resonating very strongly, isn't it? And Australia has made
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  Speaker 1: itself unpopular with China by leading the protests. How does
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  Speaker 1: Australia fit into this picture now with the Pacific Islands
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  Speaker 1: Forum kind of falling apart around Anthony Albanese?
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  Speaker 4: Australia is coming off some big Pacific winds. We've had
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  Speaker 4: a series of treaties, an alliance recently with Fiji. We've
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  Speaker 4: got The security agreement with Vanuatu in recent times, that
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  Speaker 4: was a little bit shaky to get there. The Puk
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  Speaker 4: Puk Treaty with Papua New Guinea. So Australia is on
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  Speaker 4: a high. I think probably the Australian government and the
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  Speaker 4: PM are a little bit resigned to the fact that
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  Speaker 4: there will be pushback. There is pushback. That missile test
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  Speaker 4: left a very bad taste in the mouth of most
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  Speaker 4: of the region. But these leaders, they're also very aware
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  Speaker 4: that China is, you know, a great power and it
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  Speaker 4: doesn't make sense necessarily to sort of single themselves out
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  Speaker 4: for Beijing's kind of anger. So this meeting, there's going
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  Speaker 4: to be a whole lot going on under the surface
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  Speaker 4: and the tensions are sort of palpable.
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  Speaker 1: Coming up, is Taiwan actually helping Australia achieve our ends
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  Speaker 1: in the Pacific? Matthew Wale is certainly someone who's put
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  Speaker 1: his head above the parapet and attracted China's attention.
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  Speaker 2: Matthew Wale says he will review the Pacific Nations security
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  Speaker 2: agreement with China. Before taking office, Wale was critical of
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  Speaker 2: the previous administration for prioritising ties with China.
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  Speaker 1: And at the forum, he was going to be leading
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  Speaker 1: a push for a region-wide security agreement that would have
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  Speaker 1: sidelined China. So what happens to that now?
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  Speaker 4: That proposal wasn't expected to sort of sail through or
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  Speaker 4: anything anyway, something Australia would very much like, but it
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  Speaker 4: sort of feels like a bit of overreach potentially at
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  Speaker 4: the moment, but that's certainly been something that's been noticed
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  Speaker 4: by China. Matthew Wale, he's very much shifted the focus
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  Speaker 4: of Solomon Islands foreign policy towards Australia from a position
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  Speaker 4: where Solomon's was one of China's closest friends in the region.
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  Speaker 4: So If they're not happy, they would laugh to see
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  Speaker 4: him get knocked off.
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  Speaker 6: We've committed to elevate our bilateral relationship. At the request
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  Speaker 6: of the Solomon Islands, this will be agreed in a
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  Speaker 6: new comprehensive treaty underpinned by mutual trust, respect and open dialogue.
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  Speaker 4: And interestingly, this challenge has also come only days after
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  Speaker 4: his foreign minister was in Adelaide beginning negotiations with Penny Wong.
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  Speaker 3: On a new bilateral treaty.
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  Speaker 4: So it's certainly the great game being played out in
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  Speaker 4: the Pacific at a very kind of micro level.
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  Speaker 1: Would it help Australia if Taiwan kind of backed off
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  Speaker 1: a little bit? I know that both Taiwan and Australia
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  Speaker 1: have the same interest in trying to secure the Pacific
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  Speaker 1: and not let it fall completely into Beijing's hands. But
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  Speaker 1: Australia has its own reasons for wanting that that are
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  Speaker 1: not just about the future of Taiwan. Do you detect
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  Speaker 1: some tension there?
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  Speaker 4: Well, look, Australia doesn't have formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan anyway.
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  Speaker 4: So Taiwan, by its mere presence, that is provocative to China.
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  Speaker 4: Could have stayed away, but that would have been not
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  Speaker 4: in its interests at all. It just wants to show
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  Speaker 4: that it can be a productive development partner to small
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  Speaker 4: Pacific Island states. Palau is one of its very few
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  Speaker 4: partners and it's not going to sort of cede that
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  Speaker 4: ground lightly.
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  Speaker 1: Well, Ben, I hope you get at least a little
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  Speaker 1: bit of time to look at a view, even if
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  Speaker 1: you don't get to dive into some glittering turquoise waters
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  Speaker 1: while you're there.
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  Speaker 3: It's going to be a very interesting week.
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  Speaker 1: Thanks so much.
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  Speaker 3: Thanks, Claire.
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  Speaker 1: Ben Packham is The Australian's Foreign Affairs and Defence Correspondent.
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  Speaker 1: You can read his updates live from the Pacific Island
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  Speaker 1: Forum