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Former Pentagon official on deaths of 2 U.S. service members · DEEP INSIGHT

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  Speaker 1: Joining me. Now we have former Pentagon official and seeingior
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  Speaker 1: fellow at the Washington Institute for Neary's Policy, Elizabeth Dent.
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  Speaker 1: Welcome back to the show, Elizabeth. So we have these
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  Speaker 1: tragic deaths today. Where do you anticipate the war is
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  Speaker 1: headed now?
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  Speaker 2: I mean, first of all, let me just say that
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  Speaker 2: my thoughts are with the service members and their families.
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  Speaker 2: This is a horrible and tragic development, and for the
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  Speaker 2: United States it represents very likely a red line. So
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  Speaker 2: my assumption is that now that this has occurred, these
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  Speaker 2: escalation threats that President Trump has been saying over the
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  Speaker 2: last several days are very likely to come to fruition
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  Speaker 2: because of these deaths. I think the United States will
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  Speaker 2: have to be very deliberate, lawful in their response and
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  Speaker 2: have it be tied to a very clear objective. But
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  Speaker 2: what is going to be most important moving forward is
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  Speaker 2: ensuring the safety of these service members, and that will
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  Speaker 2: also mean having additional defenses come in.
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  Speaker 1: When you talk about a precise objective, what might that
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  Speaker 1: look like?
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  Speaker 2: Well, unfortunately, the objective of this war has changed pretty
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  Speaker 2: frequently over the last six months. What I think originally
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  Speaker 2: what we were looking at was some sort of regime
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  Speaker 2: change war. President Trump said that he wanted to ensure
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  Speaker 2: the IVOLA was gone. That did occur, but that did
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  Speaker 2: not result in any sort of meaningful regime change in Iran.
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  Speaker 2: What I think we're looking at now is, before these
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  Speaker 2: service members died, we were looking at a place of
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  Speaker 2: getting back to the negotiating table, using the Memorandum of
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  Speaker 2: Understanding as a sort of basis to move forward right now,
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  Speaker 2: given the deaths of these service members and the fact
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  Speaker 2: that the United States is very likely to escalate now,
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  Speaker 2: Iran has also been on the record saying that they
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  Speaker 2: would also in turn escalate. So I think we're not
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  Speaker 2: out of the woods here. I think that right now
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  Speaker 2: the objective should be the United States will very likely respond,
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  Speaker 2: and then we'll need to try to find an off
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  Speaker 2: ramp to de escalate in the region.
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  Speaker 1: Again, in addition to all of that, in your correct
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  Speaker 1: senior advisor to around Supreme Leader had said that, indeed,
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  Speaker 1: if the US continues its attacks any further from a
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  Speaker 1: few days, around will start a full scale offensive operation.
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  Speaker 1: But then you have today. According to the Associated Press,
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  Speaker 1: an Iranian negotiator has said that Tehran is officially suspending
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  Speaker 1: its commitments under v MoU. But my question to you, Elizabeth.
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  Speaker 1: The President has repeatedly said he has destroyed Around's military.
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  Speaker 1: Of course we're seeing evidence that is not true today.
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  Speaker 1: But to what extent does Iran still have operations that
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  Speaker 1: can withstand that which the United States might launch their way?
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  Speaker 2: Now? I mean if Iran's capability has been reduced, which
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  Speaker 2: I think at this point we can say that it
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  Speaker 2: has been. It's not as if our airstrikes have not
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  Speaker 2: done anything that's worth acknowledging. But we thing capabilities is
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  Speaker 2: not the same as eliminating the threat and on the
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  Speaker 2: ability to conduct asymmetric warfare in a way that just
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  Speaker 2: simply poses a threat to the region, poses a threat
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  Speaker 2: to the economy. That's all they have to do. The
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  Speaker 2: United States is a more conventional military, so it is
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  Speaker 2: much more difficult for us to show sort of our
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  Speaker 2: progress moving forward. Asymmetric warfare is exactly how Iran imposes
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  Speaker 2: these costs. So even if they maintain the ability to
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  Speaker 2: launch drone swarms or some of the ballistic missiles or
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  Speaker 2: even just projectiles, their ability to threaten to be able
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  Speaker 2: to penetrate air defenses in Gulf countries, hit energy facilities,
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  Speaker 2: defalination facilities, which they have just done in Kuwait over
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  Speaker 2: the last twenty four hours. That's what poses this real threat,
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  Speaker 2: and that's a much harder thing to completely take care of.
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  Speaker 2: So I think we can acknowledge that there has been progress,
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  Speaker 2: but clearly Iran still retains quite a few capabilities.
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  Speaker 1: So even though Donald Trump claims that Iran has been defeated,
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  Speaker 1: he said on Tuesday, the US is prepared to expand
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  Speaker 1: attacks next week, and that includes targeting Iranian power plants
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  Speaker 1: if diplomatic efforts fail. First of all, can diplomatic efforts
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  Speaker 1: even be underway under these circumstances anything that could produce
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  Speaker 1: anything substantive? And Reuters has also reported that Iran asked
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  Speaker 1: the Houthis to disrupt shipping in the Red Sea if
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  Speaker 1: power plants are hit by the United States. We know
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  Speaker 1: the US expanded strikes on bridges targets around the country
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  Speaker 1: as well, but let's add the implications of the Red
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  Speaker 1: Sea being impacted. So putting all of this together, where's
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  Speaker 1: this going.
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  Speaker 2: Certainly it's really concerning development. I think the United States
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  Speaker 2: is very likely to pursue targets in that arena. One
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  Speaker 2: thing that we didn't see yesterday when the Iranians asked
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  Speaker 2: the who they is to be on guard to close
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  Speaker 2: the Bobbleman dev which is in the Red Sea, which
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  Speaker 2: post October seven, twenty twenty three, they did start launching
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  Speaker 2: projectiles at shipping vessels that were transiting the Babblemanda, So
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  Speaker 2: it's very likely they could do something like that again.
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  Speaker 2: But what we didn't see from the Whovis was an
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  Speaker 2: acknowledgment or a commitment to do so if the Iranians
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  Speaker 2: actually asked them to. The Houthis are a little bit
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  Speaker 2: of a different proxy than some of the other proxies
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  Speaker 2: like Hsbala and Hamas. They see themselves as a little
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  Speaker 2: bit more independent. That's not to say that they won't
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  Speaker 2: cooperate with the Iranians. Certainly, I think that they will,
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  Speaker 2: but we just haven't seen that full on commitment to
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  Speaker 2: do so. So I think that there's still quite a
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  Speaker 2: few steps in the espilatory ladder. I think we're watching
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  Speaker 2: as they all sort of play out. I don't think
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  Speaker 2: we're off of it yet, and I don't expect us
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  Speaker 2: to step back anytime soon very quickly.
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  Speaker 1: Elizabeth, is there any reason to even talk about resuming negotiations?
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  Speaker 1: At this point, what would have to happen for them
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  Speaker 1: to be effective.
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  Speaker 2: Of course, I think diplomacy should always be the first
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  Speaker 2: instinct here. Now, obviously, given the status of what's going
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  Speaker 2: on in the region, that is much more difficult to do.
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  Speaker 2: But that doesn't mean that the countries who were helping
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  Speaker 2: to pull the United States and Iran together to the
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  Speaker 2: negotiating table can't be helpful this time around. Pakistan, Cutter,
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  Speaker 2: Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey. They can all step back in
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  Speaker 2: and either put pressure on Iran or put pressure on
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  Speaker 2: the United States in order to have them return to
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  Speaker 2: the negotiating table and restart those diplomatic agreements.
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  Speaker 1: Okay, Elizabeth Dent, we will have you back again because
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  Speaker 1: this shows no signs of letting up. Thank you very much.