Latest / Best of Business / Liam Dann: NZ Herald business editor at large on the NZX 50 going up 6 percent in the past month

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Liam Dann: NZ Herald business editor at large on the NZX 50 going up 6 percent in the past month · Best of Business

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  Speaker 1: You're listening to a podcast from News Talk SEDB. Follow
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: this and our wide range of podcasts now on iHeartRadio.
• 0:16
  Speaker 2: Liam Dan, the Herald's business editor at Larges, with me
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  Speaker 2: at the moment. Hey dam good. So the INSIDEX fifty
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  Speaker 2: is up about six percent in the past month.
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  Speaker 3: Why, Yeah, Well, I guess it's all to do with
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  Speaker 3: the interest rates starting to turn and all that optimism
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  Speaker 3: and green shoots that we're talking about. So what happens is,
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  Speaker 3: you know, the last time it really boomed was with
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  Speaker 3: all that COVID stimulus. Money was there and interest rates
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  Speaker 3: were extremely low, and it's been tracking sideways since about
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  Speaker 3: twenty twenty one. But yeah, it's finally gone past the
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  Speaker 3: point about twelve thousand odds on the index where it
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  Speaker 3: was on February twenty one, twenty twenty, when it collapsed
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  Speaker 3: you started going weird with COVID, and it's at its
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  Speaker 3: highest point in two years. And yeah, it's suddenly looking
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  Speaker 3: like a more interesting place. You've got the Warehouse takeover play. Obviously,
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  Speaker 3: Stephen Tindall's got a big plan and everything, but still
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  Speaker 3: the timing is not a coincidence. Warehouse was very cheap
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  Speaker 3: and you've got a vida, the retirement village operator that's
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  Speaker 3: often related to property retirement villages, and so that's a play.
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  Speaker 3: And look, there are people in the market suggesting that
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  Speaker 3: we may see more of this because you know, in
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  Speaker 3: these cycles of yeah, because what happens is the smart
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  Speaker 3: money sits on the sides during the bit when interest
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  Speaker 3: rates are high and you're doing it right with it
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  Speaker 3: sitting in the bank, and the share price the shares
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  Speaker 3: don't do so well, and then as soon as they
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  Speaker 3: see the first glimmer of hope that that's turning, which
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  Speaker 3: is ahead of you know, the economy is terrible still,
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  Speaker 3: but there are signs of life out there. The signs
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  Speaker 3: of life are what they're looking for in the turn
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  Speaker 3: of the cycle. And then countercyclical I guess is what
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  Speaker 3: you call it. They're starting to come in.
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  Speaker 2: Do we know what sectors we're going to be talking about.
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  Speaker 3: Well, I think anything with like people are talking about
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  Speaker 3: the retirement village sector or other players retail and property.
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  Speaker 3: These are sectors that have really struggled and there is
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  Speaker 3: presumably some bargains out there in the in the eyes
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  Speaker 3: of sheer market investors. It is complicated a little bit
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  Speaker 3: by the US because they've got a tech bubble. The
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  Speaker 3: same things happen in the US with the bulk of
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  Speaker 3: the stock. So if you look at the bulk of
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  Speaker 3: the S and P five hundred, it's also been in
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  Speaker 3: the doldrums and should start to pick up. But there's
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  Speaker 3: about seven stocks in the US and Video and Meta
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  Speaker 3: and Tesla and Google.
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  Speaker 2: Alphabet the amazing seven or magnificent magnificent seven.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, and they have really propped up everything for the
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  Speaker 3: last two years, and so they're unfortunately they're on the
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  Speaker 3: brink of everyone talking about a bubble, and so so
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  Speaker 3: you could see them collapse, but you should also hopefully
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  Speaker 3: they don't collapse. Hopefully they just come off gently and
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  Speaker 3: we see the real world stocks, you know, the retailers
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  Speaker 3: and the manufacturers and all that sort of thing ought
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  Speaker 3: to start coming back in the US as well. So yeah,
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  Speaker 3: it's just just suddenly noticed that there's a bit of
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  Speaker 3: action out there, and there's a bit of excitement in
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  Speaker 3: the markets about this because this is what this is
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  Speaker 3: what the sheer investors wait for, you know that the
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  Speaker 3: really sharp players.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, totally. Hey, listen, by the way, on interest rates,
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  Speaker 2: which you mentioned just before, when are you picking the
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  Speaker 2: cup then.
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  Speaker 3: Well, I don't think it can be August. I think,
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  Speaker 3: but I I look the just that the banks have
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  Speaker 3: moved already a little bit and that might have done
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  Speaker 3: a little bit of the job.
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  Speaker 2: Not August. Are you saying October could be? I just
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  Speaker 2: want to remind you that I've been saying November to you,
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  Speaker 2: Liam for the longest time. Me you'd be telling me
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  Speaker 2: I'm wrong, and now.
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  Speaker 3: Look, yeah, well, yeah, the things turn fad in No,
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  Speaker 3: I think.
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  Speaker 1: I think.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah. I mean, if you if you go through all
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  Speaker 3: the ups and downs, it's about where we started, where
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  Speaker 3: we thought it would be at the start of the year.
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  Speaker 2: Oh oh, is that what you're doing? Are you saying
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  Speaker 2: you called this ages go and then changed your mind
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  Speaker 2: Now you're going back to your original one.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah?
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, oh okay, yeah, absolutely.
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  Speaker 2: Well I can't disprove that, so I'm going to have to.
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  Speaker 3: Just probably could you'd probably go through all my columns.
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  Speaker 2: Actually, now that I've thought, now, I'm going to do
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  Speaker 2: a word search of your columns and find fine.
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  Speaker 3: No, I'll tell you what I did call. I called
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  Speaker 3: a seven percent interest rate peak about two years ago,
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  Speaker 3: and that's where we landed.
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  Speaker 2: Okay, Well, you can have that one then, thank you Len.
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  Speaker 2: I don't know why this has turned into a weird
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  Speaker 2: competition between us, but I am to blame for that. Liam.
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  Speaker 2: Thank you, Liam Dan, the Herald's Business editor at large.
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