Latest / Football Junkies podcast / Ep.60: The battle of the cold tundra

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Ep.60: The battle of the cold tundra · Football Junkies podcast

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  Friends and foes, we have another battle this weekend.
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  On one hand you have the ravens of Baltimore, and on the other hand you have the bills of
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  Buffalo, all being fought on the cold Tundra, and on the other hand you have the Texans
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  of Houston and the Chiefs of Kansas City, and on the other hand you have the Eagles
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  of Philadelphia and the Rams of LA, as well as the Commanders of Washington, even though
• 0:37
  they are in Maryland technically speaking.
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  Do not argue with thee, but argue with thine self, and on the other hand you have the Lions
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  of Detroit, all fighting for one goal, and that is to be a champion.
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  Who will win these battles?
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  Who will advance to the next round of the tournament?
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  We will all find out on this weekend.
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  So until then, I am your host with the most.
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  Your GM who currently is not on a team right now, but don't you worry your very minds about
• 1:20
  that, my dear fellow people.
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  Now I am also your GM, your Bagro Domus, the one who gives predictions of all things related
• 1:34
  to the bag as well as things connected to the National Football League.
• 1:41
  I am your host Kale.
• 1:43
  Yes, my tone is a little bit different.
• 1:46
  We're going to do something a little bit different because this is the 60th episode of the Junkies
• 1:52
  Football Podcast, or as we say it in layman's term, the Football Junkies Podcast.
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  I am your host Kale.
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  You already know what we've already said.
• 2:05
  Prior to this point, so on three, let us all say it in a joyous way.
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  One, two, three, lock in, we shall.
• 2:41
  All right, folks, let's just get into the meat and potatoes and everything that is going
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  on in the league right now.
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  Yes, I decided to switch things up a little bit just to keep you guys on your toes.
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  Okay, I'm letting you know right now this episode is going to be fairly short, simply
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  because outside of all the coaching interviews and whatnot, there's really not a lot going
• 3:05
  on.
• 3:06
  Honestly, I could talk about what happened with Mike Tomlin, but don't nobody really
• 3:09
  care about that.
• 3:10
  I'll save all of my opinions and all those different types of things.
• 3:15
  Once we get to the episode when I talk about the entire offseason for all 32 teams, I'll
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  probably break it down division by division just so we can stress things out a little
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  bit because these episodes are going to be fairly pretty long because I'm going to be
• 3:30
  doing an in-depth analysis of every single team, cap space, positional needs, where they
• 3:36
  are on the draft, what they should do in free agency, all those different types of things
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  and more.
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  Once the season is completely over, that's when we'll do it.
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  But until then, we still got some games that we have to talk about.
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  Let's get into all the playoff games that are going on right now.
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  Let us start with the Ravens and Bills.
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  For me personally, I think this is going to be a really good game.
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  On top of that, apparently it's supposed to be snowing.
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  You already know.
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  Snow games, especially in the playoffs, legendary.
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  Now, it may not be the best for the players, but for us as the consumers, we're probably
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  going to want to love it.
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  But let's just get into these junky nuggets that I found on Pro NFL.
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  Shout out to them.
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  In-zone coverage.
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  Lamar threw for 2,989 passing yards, 23 touchdowns and 3 picks and 9.5 yards per 10.
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  The Bills played 76.3% of snaps in-zone coverage, which is the eighth highest rate in the league
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  and allowed 17 touchdowns and intercepted 12 passes.
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  And the Bills have loaded the box 43.1%, which is a little bit low compared to the league
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  average, which is about 45.7%.
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  Now this is what I will say.
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  For the Bills, you have a tough task and that is to try to limit both Lamar Jackson and Derek
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  Henry.
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  And the reason why I say that is because this is a type of game for someone like a Derek
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  Henry, those bigger, powerful running backs.
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  Okay.
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  It may not be the best for the Lucidbacks, but someone that's a old school downhill runner,
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  I'm going to put you in the ground type of running back.
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  Oh, this is perfect for them.
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  But even when we go a little bit more in depth with these junkie nuggets, okay, since 2018,
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  the Ravens averaged 7.1 yards per play when using motion.
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  And in week four, when the receivers were open, Lamar Jackson was 12 for 13, 144 yards
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  and 2 touchdowns.
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  I'm just going to be honest here.
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  If it was me personally, I wouldn't let Zay Flores play this game.
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  I would save him for the AFC championship.
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  Most likely you're either going to go up against the Chiefs or the Texans.
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  So you want to be prepared for that ensemble.
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  Now the expectation for the Bills is most likely they are going to load up the box and
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  they're going to try to limit Derek Henry in the beginning of the game.
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  But we all know Derek Henry being the battering ram that he is.
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  At some point he's going to break through and he's going to make that big run.
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  And when he does, that is going to be the start of many.
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  Now the question is how exactly are they going to try to mitigate Derek Henry?
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  There is no answer because it's not going to happen because as of right now, in my eyes,
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  I feel like the Bills defense is not equipped to stop Derek Henry.
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  If it was someone like a Justice Hill or somebody else, yeah, they could definitely do the thing.
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  But someone like a Derek Henry that's going to wear down on defenses.
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  They may start out perfectly fine at first.
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  But as the game continues to go on, they're going to get more tired and worn down.
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  And before you know it, guess what?
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  Those gaps get a little bit more open and he's hitting the home run every single time.
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  He is going for the touchdown straight up the middle or somewhere else.
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  And guess what? most likely he is stiff arming somebody before he gets to the end zone.
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  So the Bills have a tall task ahead of them.
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  When it comes to Derek Henry, I think they'll be able to hold their own against, you know,
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  Isaiah likely and Mark Andrews and Rashad Bateman.
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  But only time will tell.
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  Now when we shift things over to the Bills, though, I think the Bills are going to be
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  playing catch up this entire game simply because for one, they don't have the secondary to
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  compete with the Ravens, as well as we all know that if Josh Allen does not have a really
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  good game, oh, they're screwed.
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  So they're going to have to try to put as many points as they can on the board every
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  chance that they get instead of going for, you know, the fourth and one or instead of
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  trying to make, you know, a crazy pass or whatever, just get the three or just try to,
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  you know, get the touchdown and just, just do the routine things.
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  Just try to put as many points on the board because you already know once the Ravens get
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  into a rhythm, once they figure out, okay, this works in this situation.
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  Okay, we got a little bit of traction.
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  Oh, that's it.
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  Because again, I want people to understand this.
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  The Ravens are just as dangerous on offense as they are on defense.
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  And that defense is built to put a lot of pressure on someone like a Josh Allen.
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  Okay, those patch rushers, they're cooking right now.
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  Kyle Van Noy, he's cooking right now.
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  So you have a mixture of that on top of Kyle Hamilton may either be put in the box or he's
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  going to pay or he's going to play in the backfield.
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  Now if he plays in the box, that's going to limit James Cook.
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  But if he plays more in the backfield, that keeps a lid over any deep passes that that
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  the bills may try to do me personally, I think they're going to try to put a lid on a Mario
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  Cooper because we all know a Mario Cooper is still dangerous.
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  I don't care, you know, what this stat says or what that stat says.
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  When you need a Mario Cooper, a Mario Cooper is going to make a play.
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  So if they can limit a Mario Cooper and force Josh Allen to rely on Mack Hollins, Curtis
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  Samuel, Keon Coleman and company, I think things could be in the Ravens favor.
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  Just being honest, now there's probably a whole bunch of people that are saying, well,
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  you're rooting for the Ravens more than anything.
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  No, but what I realize is the Ravens as a whole is better equipped for this game than
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  what the bills are.
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  Now granted, the bills, they are a really good team.
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  I'm not taking that away from them.
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  But me personally, I don't see anybody on the bills team that can try to mitigate Derek
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  Henry, that can try to limit Mark Andrews and Isaiah likely and Rashad Bateman.
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  They don't have the secondary that they used to have where they used to have Trey White
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  and you know, both of the safeties and Tremaine Edmonds and company, they don't have that
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  no more.
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  So again, this is going to be a team effort for the bills.
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  It really is and they're going to have to keep things close.
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  If they can keep things close, they could possibly win this game.
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  But if the distance starts to, you know, stretch out a little bit, little by little, hold on,
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  no, that's it.
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  That is if that is a wrap.
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  Folks, get ready to go to Cancun.
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  One, two, three, Cancun.
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  Now for the commanders and Lions game, this game is a little bit more interesting for
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  me personally.
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  And the reason why I say that is because here you have someone in Jaden Daniels who continues
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  to be a magician, game in and game out.
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  You're going up against the Lions.
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  Now granted, I understand there are people are saying, well, I think the Lions can beat
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  the commanders.
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  Oh, hold on there.
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  Pause the breaks.
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  I think the commanders may have a chance of beating the Lions.
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  I really do.
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  And the only reason why I say that is because this commander's team, I don't know what it
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  is, but it's just something special about them.
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  I don't know.
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  I don't know if it's Jaden Daniels.
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  I don't know if it's just, you know, their story this entire season.
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  I don't know what it is, but it's something special about them that I think they can try
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  to do the impossible and beat the Lions.
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  And I'm not saying that the commander's going to go to the Super Bowl, but what I am saying
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  is this could be a very close game.
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  When we look at these junkie nuggets, okay, when facing man coverage, Jarragov completed
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  71.3% of his passes and through 20 touchdowns and no picks.
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  So you already know if he sees man coverage, oh, barbecue chicken, barbecue chicken alert,
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  barbecue chicken alert, barbecue chicken alert already.
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  All right.
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  Now, when we look at, you know, these other junkie nuggets on design runs under center,
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  the Lions gained 1,801 rushing guards.
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  Okay.
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  So expect for them to be under center a lot in this game.
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  Now the question is how effective will this run game be against the commander's defensive
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  line?
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  Because remember, you got Franky Louvue, you got Dante Fowler, June, you got Jonathan
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  Allen, you got Durand Payne and you got Johnny Newton.
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  So I think this defensive line could try to limit the run game for the Lions.
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  Now I'm not saying they're going to try to, you know, disable it completely, but I do
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  think they do have the personnel that can try to limit them as much as they can.
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  If they do, you can keep this game fairly close.
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  Now when we look at things for the commanders though, when targeting Goal Rouse, Jaden Daniels
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  throws the most touchdowns without any interceptions and the commanders utilize man blitzes 21.1
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  0.9% of pass rushes this season.
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  So expect for them to blitz at some point in this game.
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  Now the question is how is the blitz going to look like?
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  Because we've seen them blitz with Franky Louvue, we've seen them blitz with Dante
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  Fowler, Jr.
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  We've seen them blitz with slot corners.
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  So prepare for the blitz.
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  I can already tell you right now, Jerichoff probably has that written on a notepad or
• 13:31
  something to watch out for the blitzes because they're going to try to put pressure on Jerichoff.
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  Now the question is, will that pressure convert into interceptions or, you know, fourth announce
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  or whatever?
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  Who knows?
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  But I will say this is going to be a really good game.
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  I'm not saying it's going to be a high scoring game, but I think as long as the commander's
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  defense keeps them in this game, I think there's a fair, there's a fair enough chance.
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  I'm not saying, you know, the commander's going to come in and just destroy the Lions.
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  No.
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  But what I am saying is this, they can do something.
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  They can do something.
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  I'm just, I'm just saying, I keep on saying it.
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  The commanders might do something crazy.
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  And if they do, man, oh man.
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  Now let's get into this Texans in chiefs game.
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  Okay.
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  So the game that me personally, I feel like it's going to be another upset.
• 14:30
  Now you're probably thinking, why do you think all these upsets?
• 14:33
  Because when we look at things from a broader perspective, right, especially for the Texans,
• 14:39
  the Texans defense, especially their patch rushers can create enough pressure on my homes
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  because let's be real here.
• 14:47
  Those tackles, they know they can't get off super early because you already know most
• 14:53
  likely it's going to get called.
• 14:55
  And you're going to be going up against the Neil Hunter and will Anderson.
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  That's a tough, a tough, tough, tough assignment.
• 15:04
  And I don't think they're going to be prepared for it.
• 15:07
  Not to mention the chiefs are going to have a tough decision that they're going to have
• 15:10
  to make either use Travis Kelsey for extra blocker or try to see if they can get the
• 15:16
  ball off as super quick as possible.
• 15:19
  Because as of right now, either the Neil Hunter is going to get through or will Anderson is
• 15:23
  going to get through or the both of them want to get through.
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  And if the both of them get through, Patrick Mahomes is going down.
• 15:30
  Just saying.
• 15:31
  But when we look at these junkie nuggets here, okay, Patrick Mahomes is six and no in divisional
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  round matchups.
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  Okay, Will Anderson and the Neil Hunter, as we just talked about, combined for 24 and
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  a half sacks a season, that is tied for the most of any duo in the league right now.
• 15:48
  Since their week 11 loss against the bills, Mahomes has thrown for 11 touchdowns and no
• 15:54
  picks.
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  That is the most passing touchdowns without a pick in the league over a span.
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  The Texans have utilized 12 personnel on 31.7% this season, including the playoffs, which
• 16:07
  is the fifth highest in the league.
• 16:09
  So expect for the Texans to try to run, try to, you know, bring things down to their level.
• 16:17
  Because we all know the recipe for beating the Chiefs is you have to create a lot of
• 16:22
  pressure on Patrick Mahomes and you have to win the time of possession.
• 16:27
  Because the longer that you keep Mahomes on the bench, the better chance that you have
• 16:32
  it winning.
• 16:33
  Because if you don't let him sit, Patrick Mahomes is going to be a magician.
• 16:39
  We have seen it before.
• 16:41
  It's sort of the same thing with Brady.
• 16:43
  The only reason why certain teams were successful against Brady because why they controlled
• 16:48
  the time of possession.
• 16:50
  When you control the time of possession, you can basically control the trajectory of the
• 16:55
  game.
• 16:56
  Now, the problem that I do have with this game though is the Texans offensive line is
• 17:02
  not that strong.
• 17:03
  And you know, most likely Spax is going to have Chris Jones here or there everywhere.
• 17:07
  Okay.
• 17:08
  Probably going to have him lined up on the edge.
• 17:11
  Probably some, you know, sometimes in the middle, one on the other edge, he's going
• 17:15
  to be everywhere.
• 17:16
  Okay.
• 17:17
  So you know, you're going to have to keep a close eye on Chris Jones as well as George
• 17:21
  Coloftus.
• 17:22
  All right.
• 17:23
  But outside of that, I think this is somewhat of an even playing field for both teams.
• 17:29
  Because let's be real here.
• 17:31
  That game against the Chargers, the Texans were not doing well at first.
• 17:35
  It was mainly the defense that was keeping them in games.
• 17:38
  So CJ Stroud and that offense, especially the offensive line, they're going to have to step
• 17:43
  up.
• 17:44
  They're going to have to make plays because if not, the Chiefs are going to do Chiefs
• 17:49
  things.
• 17:50
  And before you know it, they're going to be headed to another AFC Championship.
• 17:53
  Now on to the final game that we have to talk about, and that is the Rams and the Eagles.
• 17:59
  Another game that I think it could be an upset, just saying, I understand there are people
• 18:06
  that are saying, why do you think so many upsets?
• 18:10
  It's because we have seen the underdogs come in and you're thinking, oh, they're not going
• 18:16
  to be able to hold their own against this team.
• 18:18
  Oh, they can't hold a candle with them.
• 18:20
  Next thing you know, that team that everybody was putting money on, guess what?
• 18:24
  They are heading to Cancun.
• 18:27
  But let's get into these junkie nuggets right now.
• 18:30
  So when AJ Brown, Devonte Smith and Jalen Hertz are all active, Jalen Hertz is 10 and
• 18:36
  0 with 27 touchdowns, 0 picks and a 112.5 passer rating.
• 18:44
  The Rams offense have the second highest rate of motion and 82.1%.
• 18:50
  The Eagles use four man fronts at 70.3% of plays, which is the sixth highest in the league.
• 18:57
  Matthew Stafford executed 67 ruleouts this season, which was the second most in the league.
• 19:04
  Now while he did this, he was 48 of 66 with his passes, which is 72.7% for 437 yards,
• 19:14
  which was the second most in the league, along with nine touchdowns without no picks.
• 19:21
  Expect this game to be offensively driven.
• 19:25
  Expect this game to be somewhat of a shootout.
• 19:29
  But I do think the Eagles do have the advantage over the Rams, only because defensively they
• 19:36
  have the corners and the defensive line that can create pressure on Matthew Stafford.
• 19:42
  When we look at things from the defensive side, though, especially for the Rams, the
• 19:48
  Rams secondary isn't strong enough to go up against this Eagles offense, especially,
• 19:54
  you know, AJ Brown and Devonte Smith and Jahan Dotson and company, I just don't see it.
• 20:01
  I really don't.
• 20:02
  I think the Eagles are going to come out guns blazing, create a lead and basically just
• 20:08
  put all of the pressure they can on the Rams.
• 20:12
  We already know what Seyquan Barkley is going to do.
• 20:14
  Okay, you already know, most likely at first he may have a little bit of some struggles,
• 20:20
  but as the game continues to go on, Seyquan is going to do Seyquan things.
• 20:25
  Okay, we've seen it before.
• 20:27
  Now the question is, what chapter is AJ Brown going to be on in this game?
• 20:32
  But on a serious note, though, I do think each and every one of these games are fairly
• 20:38
  balanced.
• 20:39
  I don't think one team or the other team, you know, has the advantage.
• 20:43
  I think these are going to be very close games down to the wire.
• 20:47
  And I think if I'm the rest for any of these games, I'm staying out of them.
• 20:51
  I am letting the players dictate the ending of this game.
• 20:56
  I am not trying to intervene as much.
• 20:59
  Now if it's something egregious, okay, yeah, fine, cool.
• 21:03
  Throw up the flag, but all that, you know, tip for tat and I'm going to call more flags
• 21:08
  on this team because I don't like this team.
• 21:11
  And my record shows that when I referee games with this team playing, I usually do it with
• 21:16
  them.
• 21:17
  No, call it down the middle, fair.
• 21:20
  And that's it.
• 21:21
  Just leave it alone because I'm telling you, if this game is handled by the refs, man,
• 21:27
  oh man, are you going to have some angry fans?
• 21:29
  I'm going to end this episode right here.
• 21:31
  I told you guys I was going to keep things light because again, there's not a whole lot
• 21:36
  to talk about.
• 21:37
  Sure, I can talk about all the interviews and whatnot.
• 21:40
  That really doesn't matter until people are actually hired, which that probably won't
• 21:44
  happen until the Super Bowl, maybe depending on who wins and who loses.
• 21:49
  But make sure you guys download the episode so I can recognize and see what you guys
• 21:55
  like so I can give you the fix that you guys need and love.
• 21:59
  Okay.
• 22:00
  Also, make sure that you guys leave a review and please five stars, please, please, please.
• 22:05
  I don't ask for a whole lot.
• 22:06
  Just please five stars and review.
• 22:08
  That means the world to me.
• 22:10
  Now, for my YouTube people, Football Junkies Pod, okay, Football Junkies Pod.
• 22:15
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• 22:19
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• 22:23
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• 22:28
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• 22:31
  YouTube, right?
• 22:32
  Now, for my TikTok people, Football Junkies Pod, okay, Football Junkies Pod.
• 22:37
  I'm going to try to see if I can crank out some clips this weekend, okay?
• 22:42
  Because I know you guys, you know, haven't missed some clips.
• 22:44
  Oh, I forgot as well for my TikTok people.
• 22:48
  I'm going to be posting mock drafts for every single team moving forward.
• 22:52
  So I did the Steelers yesterday.
• 22:55
  Let me know which team I should do today.
• 22:58
  All right.
• 23:00
  Now for my Instagram people, Football underscore junkies pod, okay, Football underscore junkies
• 23:05
  pod, junkies pod is not what it is together, not spaced.
• 23:12
  It is together, not spaced.
• 23:14
  Football underscore junkies pod, junkies pod is together, not spaced.
• 23:19
  Is there anything else that I'm missing?
• 23:21
  Oh, follow me on Twitter, GM underscore kale, okay?
• 23:25
  GM underscore kale.
• 23:27
  That's where I do all my arguing with fellow fans, especially Steelers fans about why we
• 23:32
  should draft defensive linemen and possibly corners in the first round instead of getting
• 23:36
  receivers.
• 23:37
  Man, oh man, have I been going back and forth with everybody this past week in the week
• 23:42
  prior.
• 23:43
  So, hey, you're going there.
• 23:46
  We're going to have a debate.
• 23:47
  Okay.
• 23:48
  I'm going to share my thoughts, I'm going to share my views, I'm going to share my opinions
• 23:50
  about where your team is, but it's all love at the end of the day.
• 23:54
  Now for my blue sky people, okay?
• 23:56
  GM kale blue sky.
• 23:58
  All right.
• 23:59
  GM kale blue sky.
• 24:00
  That's where you can find me on blue sky, post all of the episodes as well on there.
• 24:04
  I got to start posting more content on there as well.
• 24:07
  So as always, I hope I gave you guys the fixes you guys need.
• 24:11
  I love you guys.
• 24:12
  I appreciate you guys so much.
• 24:14
  Thank you for listening up until this point.
• 24:17
  60 episodes, folks.
• 24:19
  60 episodes.
• 24:20
  That means we are 40 episodes away from a hundred episodes, but I love you guys.
• 24:28
  I appreciate you guys so much.
• 24:29
  This is your GM kale signing out.
• 24:32
  Peace and love.
• 24:33
  Thanks so much for listening literature.