Latest / Rick Outzen: (we don’t) color on the dog / Why Florida Is Suddenly in Play
Transcript
- Rick Outzen: Welcome to We Don't Color on the Dog. We've got Jennifer Paul Mary, a good friend. jennifer: I'm already laughing. Rick Outzen: She was director of communications for the Obama administration. You may recognize her from Showtime, The Circus. And now she's got this great new series, The Long Play or Long Play. Tell us about Jen before we talk about you came to Florida, but before we talk about that, tell us about the the mission of long play. What what are y'all after? jennifer: So it is our theory is that the South is the political epicenter of the country, you know, and this the South I think is I think you probably will agree with this. It's where America America sort of reveals itself, right? It's like right. Rick Outzen: Yeah, right. jennifer: and also I think it's the cultural center of the country, but there is not there hasn't there's not a lot of attention on the changing politics of the region that's looking at it as a region. and you know, as you know, news there's just you know, there's a lot of pla places in the south that had that are news deserts. And so the idea of our show, which is produced by the same people who produced the circus, so it's like a premium doc series, but it's free on YouTube, which is fun. is to is to sort of meld changing politics, culture and cover not just races and politics, but the people sort of shaping what's happening in these states, how they're changing, the cultural underpinnings of music and art and literature and all the things that we love, sports, about the South, food, and how that shapes the culture too. Cause and as you know, I was born in Mississippi, you went to Vascagoula, Rick Outzen: Right. Pasker Goola. jennifer: you went to college with my sister. Rick Outzen: Yeah. jennifer: so I left the South when I was eleven, but I am always been kind of drawn to it. And my co host is Aaron Haynes, who's born and raised in Atlanta, still lives there. And we ha also have some contributions from Mitchell Andrew, who the former mayor of New Orleans. so it's the three of us and it's been pretty great. Rick Outzen: For our viewers, Jennifer's sister was my lab partner in zoology, my freshman year at OleMess. everything I learned about politics, I learned by studying the Roman Empire and being student body president at Ole Miss. Everything it it is such a small world, but it it is it so when I cover politics in Northwest Florida and in the state, a lot of the lessons I learned there. you know, Jennifer. You were recently in Tallahassee. Yeah, and and you're right. It it's it's I think people on the outside looking in think, well, this is just all red, red, red. It's jennifer: Right. Rick Outzen: Trump, Trump, Trump, and and it's all anti woke politics. But there's been some splintering and a certain amount in in Florida we've had a supermajority in the legislature. we haven't had a democratic governor since the mid-1990s. it is and people aren't happy necessarily. you know insurance is high, property insurance, jennifer: Yeah. Rick Outzen: affordability in homes, healthcare access, it's inflation, what's happening in libraries and public education, it it's a mess. from my side. What did you see when you went to Tallahassee? jennifer: The it's it's this is part of the reason for the show is that I think that people think it's a monolith. That the South that the the and I think particularly Democrats, Democrats who work in national politics, 'cause I used to be one of them, think the South is a monolith and it's like that whole SEC region has just been put in a box of something that we don't worry about because they're not going to vote for us. Which is a terrible way to run a country or try to lead or try to be elected president. and plus going forward, you just can't do that, right? Going forward. after the next census, all you know, so many states in the South, your state, Florida, Texas, North Carolina, Georgia, maybe more will gain seats, representation in Electoral College Rick Outzen: Mm-hmm. jennifer: and Congress. Like it's just you just can't, it's just not palatable as well as just being a bad idea. And of course, once you get into a state, you know, talk go back to Mississippi for a sec. I would talk to people in Mississippi who would say, I don't know any Democrats. Like I just Rick Outzen: Mm-hmm. jennifer: I just don't know Rick Outzen: Right. jennifer: any. And of course there of course there should be. There's people have different different opinions, different approaches. These things should should be able to, you know, foster kind of competition and discussion. So what we found in Florida is that even even with a because at the beginning of you know, when I looked at races that we would go to in 2026 and states that we would go to, I did not think Florida would be one of them. It felt the last time I had covered anything in Florida, I think was twenty three, twenty-two. after you know, and it was like the DeSantis culture magacultural lockdown. And I just thought Florida is its own sort of contained thing right now, and it's politically, culturally, even in some ways, seems economically with the woke Disney and the crypto bros maga. and then I know your state dem the state democratic leader in the Senate like left the party, said the party is dead because it was trying to it was coming too progressive. And then Things can only be dead right when it hits rock bottom. Something, this is just what humans do, is what the right Roman Empire and student body president and all miss. It's just something rises. And Rick Outzen: Right. Right. jennifer: it's so interesting to me that when I saw David Jolly was running for governor, I thought, good for him. You know, like almost like this is gonna be a placeholder, right? Bless his heart. Bless his heart. He knows that there needs to be a Democrat on the ballot. Rick Outzen: Bless his heart. Right. jennifer: And so he's a former Republican, he's gonna become a Democrat, he's a savvy guy, he'll run a scrappy race and he'll lose. And then Angie Nixon wins the Democratic primary, and it's the same thing. And it's like, and they're very on, they're on different ends of the spectrum of the Democratic Party. But what's interesting is that, are or are they are they at polar opposites or are they covering the spectrum between the two of Rick Outzen: Right. jennifer: that, And I found that I think Jolly is running a very savvy race. And then I think Angie Nixon is just a real I mean, I I didn't interview her, but I went especially to cover to just watch her rally. Erin Haynes was covering that just to see her in action and you're like, she's for real. Like she she can Rick Outzen: There's a lot of energy in that campaign. A lot of energy. jennifer: Yeah, yeah. So and you do and then also you're like there's something competitive here. And I just feel sort of everywhere. This is probably true in a lot of places in America, right? But particularly in the South, where so many of the states that we went to are at the third, you know, are at the end of 30 years of one party rule and things aren't going great. So Rick Outzen: Yeah. jennifer: when there's just one party that's responsible. you can just feel things start to change here and Georgia, excuse me, and Florida, is felt part of that. Rick Outzen: I I watched the the your interviews and I watched the show. And for our listeners on YouTube, I'll have the link here. and it's free, which is great. But, jennifer: Yeah. Rick Outzen: you you the governor's race is really so tight that even Northwest Florida is in play. We're solid red, have been solid red for a while, but jennifer: Yeah. Rick Outzen: it you're seeing Jolly spending a lot of time up here because he knows he's having to recruit the black vote. And and and that's an interesting dynamic, but he's seriously, you know, really very serious about doing it, not taking it for granted. jennifer: He it's a really that that call like if if Byron Donald's wiz wins, his coalition will be very different than a Ron DeSantis coalition, right? And what was so yeah, it was interesting. We just it happened to be that the week when we were there last week that everything was happening in Tallahassee. All you know, Nixon, Jolly, and Dire and Donalds were all there. Ashley Middy was, I think, was not in the state or she was in the South. But the I went to And and by and and Jolly, Republicans are good candidates. Usually they're very disciplined. They have a methodical plan. They don't let, they don't let niceties get in their way. So sometimes they're good candidates as as Democrats. And Jolly, the you know, when he understood his theory is the undecided vote is the undecided vote for the governor's race is the 10% of black voters are undecided. That may be true, that may not be true, but it's a very savvy thing to say. And Rick Outzen: Mm-hmm. Right, right. jennifer: it's a savvy thing because by saying it, are you manifesting undecided black voters that are willing to come your way? and he had I think he had Ben Crumpin and then who's the, you know, the attorney that has represented a lot of the families whose black families that had a family member killed In a police shooting, he had Reverend Al Sharpton and went to black churches with him. And then with when I was there, he campaigned with Jim Clyburn, the legendary black congressman from South Carolina, went to Famuew, went to Florida State University Black Student Association. And, so he's like showing up and doing the and and doing the work. And then on the Donald side, I think this is right, Rick, that he, I think. his approval rating with Republican people voted for Trump is only only one in seven of the s of the Republicans who people who voted for Trump are support one in seven of s of people who voted for Trump are not yet supporting him. And I think they're in your part of the state. Rick Outzen: Right, right. It's it's interesting. Yeah, it and and people forget that Donald started as a Democrat. So we're having jennifer: I know. Rick Outzen: which is interesting. jennifer: Yeah. Rick Outzen: and the the other thing that jumped out at me, and I haven't really thought about it, is the the the idea that these races in the South here in Texas and Georgia and the Carolinas, you're looking this shapes twenty twenty eight. That and that is a really talk about that because I've that is such a great insight. jennifer: yeah. So yeah. It I think it in in in a number of ways. First of all, just having Democratic governors in Tex you know, if you had Democratic governors in Texas and Florida, Georgia, they're already there on North Carolina, South Carolina, that's not gonna be a possibility. that it it makes it it makes a big difference. Just it it usually in the business we say it's like worth plus two or three in a state. partly because the infrastructure, there's like an infrastructure there in the state, a fresh infrastructure in the state that just came off a Democratic win that's gonna remain active because there's a Democratic governor in charge. But then of course the other thing it's just implementing elections. So you're not relying Democrats aren't relying on counting on a Republican in Brian Kemp and a Republican in the Secretary of State in Georgia Brian Brad Raffensburger to stand up to Trump when things don't go their way, although those those two did, but it's a it's a big deal to have a it's just a big deal to have that infrastructure and to have those officials in place when tough calls and elections and campaigns need to be made. The other thing is is it's just the you know it's just that you are is talent having just one campaigns, good theory winning theories of how you do that, like all of that stuff. And I think it was really you know, that was important for Biden in 2020 that you know, sort of the older battleground of the blue wall, you had Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Democratic governors in all three of those states, like that mattered a lot. But it's also just telling you what's possible in the South and giving the Southern The people who are, running for president, a roadmap there. The other thing that's really interesting about the South is that the Democratic presidential the South will decide who the Democratic nominee is in 2028. South Carolina goes first. it's it was first in 2024, but it didn't really matter. But that will be the first primary contest. It's not Iowa anymore or New Hampshire, it's South Carolina goes first. And then it there's Virginia is the last state before Super Tuesday. So you have two southern states. Although do we call Virginia Southern? Rick Outzen: Well, you're in Maryland, so yeah. jennifer: I know. It is in some ways I think Maryland is more southern than New Jer than Virginia, but Southwest Virginia certainly is southern. You know, there are parts of Virginia that are southern. anyway, but then the big thing is so you're coming out you when you roll into Super Tuesday, it's all like, you know, Georgia Tex, you know, like it was for Biden in 2020. And so after the midterms end, like the next day, a battle, a new battle for the South. is going to commence on the democratic Rick Outzen: Mm-hmm. jennifer: side. and that's why I think you see so many people going, so many Democrats going to help Scott Colomb in Mississippi. I know Bill Clinton is is he's is he he's coming to help David Jolly already already has or yeah, people coming Rick Outzen: Right. He's already been here. Yeah, he's come here. Yeah. jennifer: to Florida, going to Mississippi, you know, Texas, love, you know, a lot of folks coming into Texas, but you know, I think they're trying the Potential twenty twenty eighters are just trying to get themselves known there. It's gonna be so fascinating. Rick Outzen: Yeah, it it's it it really yeah, for wonks like you and me, just to watch this unfold jennifer: Yeah. Rick Outzen: is is is it's you know, people keep asking me about it and I'm saying, this is too close to call. the other thing we have happen in Florida, and I'll just is jennifer: Yeah. Rick Outzen: that we've got all the cabinet positions, you know, and even Moody. The U they're they're all DeSantis appointees. They never were elected. The only one is the Commissioner of Agriculture. So this is somewhat gonna be a vote on DeSantis. This is his legacy, which is a whole jennifer: interesting, right. Rick Outzen: nother piece to this. and and so it it's gonna see how this all these races are fairly close. The Democrats have come up with good candidates that are working jennifer: Yeah. Yeah. Rick Outzen: hard. There's been an influx of money. From finally some millionaires, billionaires. Right. jennifer: There's been an influx of money. David Jolly raised a ton of money in the third quarter. or Ashley Moody made a lot of raised a lot of money in the third quarter. David just got an influx of money from the Democratic Government Association. Like, couldn't come too soon. It's getting a little late to buy airtime. Rick Outzen: no, it's right. It is crazy. It's crazy. So jennifer: The yeah, go ahead. Rick Outzen: Well, where where are you gonna be election night? Where are you gonna where where are y'all going next? jennifer: I think I have a story I have another story to tell you about Florida that you're gonna love though. but I Rick Outzen: Okay, all right. jennifer: think we're gonna so next we're going to we're going to Mississippi for the last week before the election. we had been there bef we went before in the in August and start Rick Outzen: Fascinating f fascinating episode. That was I'd love that. It really was. jennifer: Wasn't it good? Thank you. I love it was our it until Florida, it was our most popular episode, and now Florida is more popular. But I think people, it's interesting, Rick. We were surprised Mississippi did so well. But I think it's Wright Thompson, you know, who's in it and is a Mississippi sports writer, his theory is that the diaspora is everywhere. So no one stays in Mississippi. So people outside of Mississippi are really ex people who were born there are really Rick Outzen: Right. Right. jennifer: excited to, but also just that it's just sort of a place that America is confound loves but is also confounded by and Rick Outzen: That right. jennifer: wants to understand more. So it's great. So and Scott Colomb was doing, well, Donald Trump is coming to go campaign for Cindy Hydesmith. the Sunny the city senator, because that race is in play. And then I and then I think we're gonna end up in Texas and be in Texas on election night. But you know, were talking about the Ashley Moody being an a DeSantis appointed. This is also something interesting that's A lot of the races in the South are like that. And I think because Trump picks so many appointees from the South. So Cindy Hyde Smith, who is the sitting senator in Mississippi, that Scott Colomb is challenging, she was an appointee. because I forget who I forget which some some senator had Mississippi Senator left. She was an appointee at one point or died, maybe? I don't know. and then the same thing in Georgia, right? That That the Warnock seat, I think, was was a appointee. and Ashley Moody. And so then the people who are running for re-election are kind of untested in terms of candidates, and they're not people who earned that vote through the voters of Florida. And so, you know, they're not used to scrutiny, they're not used to getting attacked, they're not used to fighting, you know, and they're not necessarily the best candidates. And I see that. Lynn's Darling Graham. I mean, it's Rick Outzen: Mm-hmm. Right. jennifer: like happening across particularly across the South. But the other story I wanted to tell you is that we went to Monticello, right? Okay, so Monticello, Florida, Jefferson County, right? Yeah. Rick Outzen: Right, right. Right east of Tallahassee. Yeah. jennifer: 40 not far, 45 minutes, but pretty rural area, Rick Outzen: Yeah, yeah. jennifer: neat little town. Town itself, 43% black. Byron Donald still has their Confederate monument at the courthouse. Byron Donald's had an event at Florida, Georgia Citrus, barbecue, fantastic brisket. mostly, you know, big crowd, 500, 400 people there. mostly white, vast, vast majority white. And a guy, older guy, pulled me aside and he's You're with the media, right? And I was like, Yeah, and he said, let me tell you little something about this place. It's like everyone in that room that is over thirty was a Democrat at one point. Rick Outzen: Mm-hmm. Right. jennifer: And he said, I was Democratic County Chair here. And I was like, when? He was like, 20 years ago. And I'm like thinking, that wasn't 20 years ago. It's probably 30 years ago. That's Rick Outzen: That's it. jennifer: what my husband says too. 20 years ago. I'm like, it was 30 years ago. and he said, and you know, he's like, so understand, you know, talked about. He said, he's like, you know. He didn't say this on camera, but he said to me, He's like, I want national meeting to understand what a big deal this is. He said, Because at our county Republican dinners, we still don't talk about Lincoln. Okay. He's like, we talk about Reagan, we talk about Trump, we don't talk about Lincoln. We don't embrace him still. He said, but that man, and he's gesturing to this, you know, a black candidate in front of this very white rural audience. He said, We're gonna vote for him, and you need to understand what a big deal that is. And he said, and also it's because we're so frustrated with Democrats. and Donald's speech to that room, I mean, it really felt like I don't know, I think David Jolly may very well win this race. he just he's got a plan and he's got momentum and he's got money and he's a smart guy and he's like working it and all. But to see it did feel like I was witnessing something important. Rick Outzen: Mm-hmm. huh. jennifer: And Donald's, who's somebody who's not from Florida, told the story. His entire speech is like, I'm one of you, right? It was like how I went to Florida State. I went to FamU. I'm a Christian. I teach Sunday school. I and I said to this man, I said, Does he need to convince the people in this room? He's No, they're bought in, they're gonna vote for him. He's like, But you just need to understand this is something you're seeing something important here. So wins or lose, it was pretty that was a cool thing to say. Rick Outzen: It that's fascinating. I mean Yeah. jennifer: Isn't that I knew you would love that. Yeah. Rick Outzen: And it it rings true. That rings true from from jennifer: Mm-hmm. Rick Outzen: what I hear and what I see too. But Jim, we could keep talking. We Yeah, but thank you so much for doing that. jennifer: Yeah. my God. So such a pleasure. Thanks, Rick. Always love to see you. Rick Outzen: Always good to catch up with you. I love to watch what you're doing. And maybe we'll do a rehash in a couple weeks. So let's yeah, let's figure we'll figure that out. All right, we'll head out. You have a great day, Jen. Thank you. All right, bye. jennifer: Ooh, after the election, that'd be fun. Let's do that. Yeah. Okay. Okay. Okay. Okay. Thanks. All right. Bye.