Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / CFB DFS - National Championship | College Football DraftKings & FanDuel Picks, Plays and Process
Transcript
- 0:04Speaker 1: All systems going clear the lift.
- 0:35Speaker 2: We've made it. We made it. What day is it?
- 0:38Speaker 2: It's a Monday morning and we are live talking college football.
- 0:42Speaker 2: How do you start the week off any better than this?
- 0:44Speaker 2: Welcome to the show everybody. We're breaking down the national
- 0:46Speaker 2: championship today. My name is Bill put a dollar in
- 0:48Speaker 2: front of it. You'll find me on Discord and Twitter
- 0:50Speaker 2: with me today. Two of the very best in the
- 0:53Speaker 2: college football streets from our ship at Nation College Football
- 0:56Speaker 2: Team Hamhock forty one and I am Robbins. How's it
- 0:59Speaker 2: going today, guys?
- 1:02Speaker 3: Great? You know, and finally kind of excited to see
- 1:06Speaker 3: this game come to Fruition. Definitely didn't think Miami was
- 1:09Speaker 3: going to be here, but it should be a blast.
- 1:12Speaker 4: Nonetheless, Yeah, super excited. It's been such a great college
- 1:17Speaker 4: football season. Bittersweet when you see coming to the MHB.
- 1:21Speaker 4: Really a good game, exciting game, you know, looking forward
- 1:26Speaker 4: to seeing what happens on the field.
- 1:29Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely. I just want to shout out go collect
- 1:31Speaker 2: is always seems to be the first one in here,
- 1:33Speaker 2: first one to comment. We got almost twenty people in
- 1:36Speaker 2: here already. Michael Rice in the comments as well, also
- 1:38Speaker 2: making a point that go collect is always here. Glad
- 1:41Speaker 2: you guys are with us. I know it's a weird time.
- 1:44Speaker 2: Maybe the holiday we'll get a few more people in here.
- 1:46Speaker 2: But yeah, like you said, Hamhock that the Miami story
- 1:51Speaker 2: in and of itself is a peculiar one. Just the
- 1:53Speaker 2: fact that they didn't make the ACC championship game, didn't
- 1:57Speaker 2: win their own conference, and then they almost lost to
- 1:58Speaker 2: Texas A and M in order to aim could have
- 2:00Speaker 2: easily been here. So maybe that adds a chip on
- 2:04Speaker 2: the shoulder to this Miami side. And then Indiana historically
- 2:06Speaker 2: the worst college football program in history, so uh quite,
- 2:11Speaker 2: there's there's a bunch of different storylines to go with.
- 2:13Speaker 2: Let's start off though, breaking down the captain spot. You know,
- 2:17Speaker 2: just just looking at this ownership that we have a
- 2:21Speaker 2: lot of it's flowing to Mendoza and that makes sense.
- 2:23Speaker 2: I think pricing is such that you can you can
- 2:26Speaker 2: get to Mendoza at captain and play it a bunch
- 2:28Speaker 2: of different ways. But we're we're looking at volume place here.
- 2:31Speaker 2: We're like, where are you guys going to captain? Kenny
- 2:34Speaker 2: will start with you just you know, there's one really
- 2:38Speaker 2: obvious play here. It seems like how are you, how
- 2:40Speaker 2: are you getting a little bit different or where are
- 2:42Speaker 2: you going? Are you getting that much different at captain?
- 2:46Speaker 3: I mean, you know, from an MME side, I mean,
- 2:49Speaker 3: you probably don't want to overload on Mendoza, but I
- 2:51Speaker 3: feel like that's the easiest way to build today, is
- 2:53Speaker 3: like started with a Mendoza captain and you know that
- 2:56Speaker 3: play some Indiana pass catchers. Like me personally, I think
- 2:59Speaker 3: Indiana kind of roles here. So I'm gonna build that
- 3:02Speaker 3: way a lot. I'm not gonna have much Miami, maybe
- 3:05Speaker 3: just a scatter of you know, some Miami captain here
- 3:07Speaker 3: and there, but yeah, just kind of starting with an
- 3:12Speaker 3: Indiana captain. It's uh, you know, Mendoza or Surat. It'll
- 3:16Speaker 3: be kind of interesting to see how these these uh
- 3:21Speaker 3: shakeout and if there will be like I I guess
- 3:24Speaker 3: starting Mendoza captain, it's gonna like there's gonna be kind
- 3:27Speaker 3: of like some obvious builds. But I don't think it's
- 3:29Speaker 3: impossible to get different, you know, playing like a Noah
- 3:31Speaker 3: Tawski or E. J. Williams with with a Mendoza. So
- 3:35Speaker 3: there is some ways there if you're going Indiana captain's side,
- 3:37Speaker 3: and I mean really, I think if you're going with
- 3:39Speaker 3: the Miami captain and building that way, I think you're
- 3:44Speaker 3: gonna just kind of automatically like get different. You know,
- 3:48Speaker 3: if you play a Tony or a Fletcher, you know,
- 3:51Speaker 3: playing cards with that captain seems pretty dang risky tonight,
- 3:54Speaker 3: you know, I don't think. I don't think, you know,
- 3:56Speaker 3: he's he's kind of been running like running well, like
- 3:59Speaker 3: running the bow well in these playoffs, and I don't
- 4:01Speaker 3: I don't necessarily think that comes to farision with Indiana's defense.
- 4:04Speaker 3: They do, Like I guess, not to pretend like I'm
- 4:07Speaker 3: some big analysis here, but I keep hearing on podcasts
- 4:11Speaker 3: and places talking about how much post snap movement Indiana
- 4:14Speaker 3: does and that could definitely confuse the crap out of
- 4:17Speaker 3: Carson Beck. And we've seen him have some massive interception games,
- 4:20Speaker 3: and I don't think that's out of the question here
- 4:21Speaker 3: at all.
- 4:23Speaker 5: But yeah, I guess, you know, I.
- 4:25Speaker 3: Prefer an Indiana captain, fine with kind of fine with
- 4:29Speaker 3: all of them, to be honest with you, But but yeah,
- 4:31Speaker 3: that's kind of how I'm approaching captain for this for
- 4:34Speaker 3: the slate. I don't know if you got anything much
- 4:36Speaker 3: different in.
- 4:36Speaker 4: Or Yeah, I mean I've talked a little bit from
- 4:40Speaker 4: my single lunchry cash perspective, I do think that Miami
- 4:44Speaker 4: has a chance in this game. I don't quite see
- 4:46Speaker 4: the ball out. I do have a I do have
- 4:49Speaker 4: one of those big future tickets on Miami that you
- 4:52Speaker 4: know right before the I did jump on that one.
- 4:57Speaker 4: I'm more of a blue blood kind of person too,
- 4:59Speaker 4: being just sec Florida background. But I think Miami has
- 5:05Speaker 4: the chops to stay in this game. Great time perspective,
- 5:09Speaker 4: But if I'm looking from a de best perspective, just
- 5:11Speaker 4: from a cash in luntry point of view, I'm looking
- 5:14Speaker 4: at people that are gonna be on the field. So
- 5:16Speaker 4: if you're throwing Mendoza as captain, which is the most
- 5:18Speaker 4: expensive guy on the plate, it's how do you fill
- 5:20Speaker 4: out the other five? And you know, we always talk
- 5:23Speaker 4: about volume. That's been our preaching point for years is
- 5:27Speaker 4: how do you find volume? Not just the upside, but
- 5:28Speaker 4: necessarily the volume of guys can be on the field.
- 5:31Speaker 4: And there's just a lot more value on the Miami
- 5:34Speaker 4: side for guys who are going to be on the
- 5:36Speaker 4: field as pass catchers and as runners. So if you
- 5:38Speaker 4: throw in Fletcher as the actual back and then you
- 5:42Speaker 4: throw in guys like Marion Daniels, even Alex Bowman, I
- 5:45Speaker 4: think is a key piece. With Lofton being hurt, you
- 5:49Speaker 4: know those guys would be on the field. They're gonna
- 5:51Speaker 4: be guys who can catch balls underneath. Creates some volume
- 5:53Speaker 4: and allow you to build out a lineup with some volume,
- 5:56Speaker 4: mister rat with Mendoza, with guys in Indiana that you
- 5:58Speaker 4: want to play as well.
- 6:00Speaker 2: Yeah, and a couple of things you guys touched on
- 6:03Speaker 2: that is gonna be key in this one. Hamhock, you
- 6:06Speaker 2: mentioned the movement on Indiana's defense. The two games that
- 6:10Speaker 2: Miami lost during the season were his interception games, and
- 6:15Speaker 2: so that's something to keep an eye on. Or maybe
- 6:18Speaker 2: since he hasn't been in class for two years and
- 6:21Speaker 2: he's coming up on thirty years old, he's old enough
- 6:25Speaker 2: to be able to work with those movements a little
- 6:27Speaker 2: bit better and catch some of the disguises. But yeah,
- 6:30Speaker 2: it comes down to volume, and just looking at the
- 6:33Speaker 2: volume on the Miami side, you get the value at
- 6:34Speaker 2: wide receivers. After Lofton went down, Alex Bowman played eighty
- 6:38Speaker 2: two offensive snaps. Keilan Marion only played fifty nine offensive snaps,
- 6:44Speaker 2: which is weird because he had you know, he's still
- 6:46Speaker 2: getting a ton of the target share when he's on
- 6:48Speaker 2: the field. But that's another thing that I'm kind of
- 6:51Speaker 2: considering too, is how many more plays Miami ran eighty
- 6:54Speaker 2: eight plays on offense against Ole Miss and Indiana scored
- 6:58Speaker 2: so quickly I think they ran sixty, so.
- 7:03Speaker 4: Just turn over short fields for any end. It was
- 7:05Speaker 4: kind of a wonky game offensively, but we kind of
- 7:09Speaker 4: know who they are. They got to split bad field
- 7:11Speaker 4: with three pass catchers.
- 7:14Speaker 2: Yeah yeah, and and that's we just know where the
- 7:17Speaker 2: volume is gonna go regardless of how many plays they run.
- 7:19Speaker 2: So let's kind of break down the quarterback position a
- 7:22Speaker 2: little bit with Beck and Mendoza. We know where ownership
- 7:27Speaker 2: is going to go. We know what name people are
- 7:29Speaker 2: going to click. Yeah, Carson Beck is scary, but if
- 7:33Speaker 2: this offensive line can protect some of that interior pressure
- 7:36Speaker 2: a little bit better, I think, you know, Carson Beck
- 7:40Speaker 2: has one of the fastest release times in all of
- 7:42Speaker 2: college football and for the most part, has taken care
- 7:44Speaker 2: of the ball this year, So I do think there's
- 7:47Speaker 2: opportunity there where people just aren't going to be playing him.
- 7:50Speaker 2: And then Mendoza, I mean I don't know how much
- 7:52Speaker 2: we need to talk about mendo Like, is there is
- 7:54Speaker 2: how what's the route to fading him? Like just that
- 7:57Speaker 2: Miami's ad rushers get to him constantly the entire game.
- 8:01Speaker 2: I know they're banged up in the secondary. So you
- 8:03Speaker 2: look at the first half, especially with that with Lucas
- 8:06Speaker 2: out on the Miami side, and you think, oh, Indiana
- 8:09Speaker 2: is your feast. So how are you guys approaching the
- 8:10Speaker 2: quarterbacks and are you fading Mendoza?
- 8:15Speaker 3: So I think, I mean, the easiest path for Mendoza
- 8:18Speaker 3: to fail. I think it's just like it's gonna I
- 8:21Speaker 3: don't think it's gonna be that Miami stops him. I
- 8:23Speaker 3: just think it's gonna be poor touchdown Variant's like if
- 8:26Speaker 3: him he gets two, a Black gets one, and Indiana's rolling,
- 8:29Speaker 3: then all of a sudden, I mean, let's say it's
- 8:32Speaker 3: Indiana puts forty two points up. You know it's there's
- 8:36Speaker 3: three touchdowns for the running backs, three for Mendoza. That
- 8:40Speaker 3: probably doesn't get you there in a captain scenario. I
- 8:42Speaker 3: mean a flex that's probably fine, But that's that's Mendoza's
- 8:46Speaker 3: path to player if he doesn't give the touchdowns and me.
- 8:48Speaker 3: He had five touchdowns last week to four different guys.
- 8:51Speaker 3: You know, that's kind of what I'm after. I could
- 8:54Speaker 3: see something like that happening again, I don't. I mean,
- 8:57Speaker 3: I I'm probably not gonna lock Mendoza across one hundred
- 9:00Speaker 3: and fifty lineups, like that's just too risky.
- 9:02Speaker 5: But I mean he's gonna be.
- 9:03Speaker 3: In about all of them, you know, in Carson Beck.
- 9:08Speaker 3: I mean, I'll play some.
- 9:10Speaker 5: And I don't.
- 9:11Speaker 3: I mean, and I don't want to play a five
- 9:12Speaker 3: to one Indiana with just Carson Beck, Like I don't
- 9:15Speaker 3: see that.
- 9:16Speaker 5: I don't think.
- 9:16Speaker 3: I don't see that succeeding. So I'm gonna want to
- 9:18Speaker 3: pair him with a pass catcher, you know. So let's say,
- 9:23Speaker 3: I mean, I almost don't even want to play back
- 9:26Speaker 3: unless I have a Miami Captain pass catcher because I
- 9:29Speaker 3: just I don't like, really see him succeeding in the
- 9:32Speaker 3: flex with the wide receiver that's a flex as well,
- 9:35Speaker 3: you know, pairing him, it's just yeah, it's tough today,
- 9:40Speaker 3: like with that, and and you know, as Chalky's Mendoza
- 9:44Speaker 3: is gonna be there's definitely paths to getting like different.
- 9:47Speaker 3: Like let's say you're building a five to one Indiana.
- 9:50Speaker 3: You go like Mendoza captain, he takes two best receivers,
- 9:53Speaker 3: you throw a running back in there, well, then you
- 9:56Speaker 3: got you need, you know, some two cheap pieces. Instead
- 9:59Speaker 3: of going like Marian and Daniels, which are gonna probably
- 10:02Speaker 3: garner the most ownership, you could go like Noah Tawski
- 10:05Speaker 3: and Luca Gilbert the number two tight end for Miami.
- 10:08Speaker 3: I like the tight ends for Miami tonight. But those
- 10:10Speaker 3: are just some ways to get different with, you know,
- 10:12Speaker 3: in a Mendoza captain lineup. But yeah, definitely hard to
- 10:17Speaker 3: fade Mendoza in any format today. I'll be kind of
- 10:21Speaker 3: curious to see if he runs a little more. If
- 10:22Speaker 3: Miami doesn't blitz, you know, if they're rushing for there
- 10:26Speaker 3: might be some lanes there that he can take off.
- 10:29Speaker 3: He's definitely not afraid to take off after that run
- 10:32Speaker 3: he had against Oregon where he was trying to spin
- 10:34Speaker 3: and do some Michael Vick stuff and ended up fumbling
- 10:37Speaker 3: the ball and luckily the center was jogging right behind
- 10:39Speaker 3: him to jump on it. But yeah, that's kind of
- 10:42Speaker 3: how I'm I guess I'm kind of viewing today as
- 10:45Speaker 3: far as like the quarterbacks go.
- 10:49Speaker 4: Yeah, there's a couple of pass I mean, Miami completely
- 10:52Speaker 4: shut down Julian San a couple of rounds ago against
- 10:56Speaker 4: Ohio State, and there's just different paths. If Marshall reed,
- 10:59Speaker 4: they they really took advantage of as well in the
- 11:01Speaker 4: first round. It's just a matter of Ken Mendoza fail.
- 11:07Speaker 4: If Miami gets there with their front four and they
- 11:10Speaker 4: have a spy as a linebacker, which I would anticipate,
- 11:13Speaker 4: I mean, have a really good defensive coordinator that he's
- 11:16Speaker 4: not bolting anywhere for another job. That's another thing is
- 11:19Speaker 4: these two teams for the first time have stability in
- 11:21Speaker 4: their coaching staff where guys are there, and so if
- 11:28Speaker 4: they had that game plan stout and they can get
- 11:31Speaker 4: there with their front four, which is what they've been
- 11:33Speaker 4: able to do which has allowed them to win these games,
- 11:36Speaker 4: then yeah, it's not like Chamberlains started running until the
- 11:39Speaker 4: fourth quarter last week, and he's a much better runner
- 11:42Speaker 4: than Mendoza is. So Mendoza's could end up with some
- 11:45Speaker 4: sack yardages that kind of take them back. If we
- 11:47Speaker 4: see a game like the Big Ten Championship game where
- 11:50Speaker 4: it was a thirteen to ten game, you know, the
- 11:52Speaker 4: Iowa game, they scored twenty points the Oregon game. They
- 11:56Speaker 4: didn't the regular seasonal Oregon game, then put up points.
- 11:58Speaker 4: Last week was kind of weird with a lot of
- 12:00Speaker 4: the short fields with pick six with this kind of
- 12:04Speaker 4: looked like Oregon kind of unraveled there.
- 12:08Speaker 5: So it's hard.
- 12:10Speaker 4: It's hard to see what the game state is because
- 12:12Speaker 4: this might be the first time Indiana gets overpowered on
- 12:15Speaker 4: the line of scrimmage man a man, which hasn't really
- 12:18Speaker 4: been the case before because Miami's built from the inside out.
- 12:22Speaker 4: They're built from the offensive line, the defensive line.
- 12:25Speaker 5: They hired.
- 12:27Speaker 4: They spent money at coordinators, just like they spend money
- 12:29Speaker 4: on their players, and that's the path that Mendoza can
- 12:33Speaker 4: have to fail. Now do I think it's going to happen?
- 12:36Speaker 4: Not necessarily. He's been so quick with his decision making.
- 12:38Speaker 4: He seems to get better, he seems to understand what's
- 12:40Speaker 4: going on to Indiana, has his stability and coordinator as well.
- 12:43Speaker 4: I'm sure the game plan will be to try to
- 12:44Speaker 4: get the ball out quickly. The chemistry he has with
- 12:49Speaker 4: Surat and Cooper and Becker has been tremendous. He's just
- 12:53Speaker 4: made every play, So how can you baths someone has
- 12:56Speaker 4: made every play, But that would be the path that
- 12:58Speaker 4: I say to take you at least maybe off captain line.
- 13:00Speaker 4: If you think this game is going to slog I
- 13:03Speaker 4: think that Miami has the horses, especially in the defensive line,
- 13:06Speaker 4: to get Aframandoza to get there with four, to have
- 13:10Speaker 4: the ability to spy him on the middle of the
- 13:12Speaker 4: field and prevent those big plays in a similar way
- 13:15Speaker 4: that they did against Marcel Reed, in a similar way
- 13:17Speaker 4: that the date against Julian Sane and really forced that
- 13:20Speaker 4: game out of their comfort zone on.
- 13:23Speaker 5: The beach side.
- 13:24Speaker 4: You guys made it, you guys mentioned it. Yeah, Miami
- 13:27Speaker 4: can definitely hang with no turnovers. You know, it's a mistake.
- 13:29Speaker 4: If they don't make mistakes. This is going to be
- 13:31Speaker 4: a game. If this is if they're going to make
- 13:34Speaker 4: the mistakes of the U and the crystal ball mistakes,
- 13:37Speaker 4: then Indiana's going to win by double digits. Beck's been there,
- 13:42Speaker 4: He's been in college for twenty four years. He makes
- 13:47Speaker 4: more money than half the coaches in the country. You'll
- 13:50Speaker 4: pay him for a reason. You know, he's got big
- 13:53Speaker 4: game upside. I don't think the stage is too bright
- 13:56Speaker 4: for him. We've seen him here before. A little bit
- 14:00Speaker 4: of revenge tour for him after getting hurt last year
- 14:03Speaker 4: in the semi finals. So you know, if he plays
- 14:05Speaker 4: within himself, he could definitely go win this game. Like
- 14:08Speaker 4: Bill mentioned, he's been running, so he's got a little
- 14:10Speaker 4: bit upside there. You know, he can push the ball downfield.
- 14:13Speaker 4: But that's where you start seeing killing maryon CJ. Daniels
- 14:16Speaker 4: kind of pop up a little bit because the attention
- 14:18Speaker 4: will be on Tony. So I definitely think there's a
- 14:20Speaker 4: path at Beck. You know, you could you play a
- 14:23Speaker 4: little stack Beck staff in there with some of the
- 14:26Speaker 4: cheaper receivers. You know, maybe that's how you approach it.
- 14:29Speaker 4: And I think Marion showed last week that he can
- 14:33Speaker 4: go off.
- 14:33Speaker 5: CJ.
- 14:33Speaker 4: Daniels has been a little banged up, but he's had
- 14:36Speaker 4: great games as well, especially if they're indiand is going
- 14:39Speaker 4: to put a.
- 14:40Speaker 5: Lot of attention on Malachai Tony, which why wouldn't you.
- 14:44Speaker 2: Yeah, and just looking at the usage throughout the playoffs,
- 14:47Speaker 2: it's it's kind of ben Keel and Marion is the
- 14:49Speaker 2: number two. The one thing that scus it last week
- 14:52Speaker 2: though you look and said Tony had ten targets, Marion
- 14:55Speaker 2: had ten targets. Daniels had seven targets, but Miami also
- 14:58Speaker 2: ran a ton of plays, which I just don't think
- 15:00Speaker 2: is going to happen in this game. Yeah, so you're
- 15:02Speaker 2: not necessarily looking at, you know, those ceiling scores, like
- 15:05Speaker 2: with the opportunity they're getting. But in showdown, it doesn't
- 15:09Speaker 2: matter if you score sixty five points or one hundred
- 15:12Speaker 2: and ten points, as long as you score more than
- 15:14Speaker 2: everybody else. So, you know, it like the way the
- 15:19Speaker 2: variance in how this game could go. You know, having
- 15:23Speaker 2: a captain that only scores twenty five points might be
- 15:26Speaker 2: enough tonight. So that's something that considers you're going in.
- 15:29Speaker 2: And you know, turnovers got brought up to Hamhock. We
- 15:32Speaker 2: were talking a little bit about turnovers before we jumped on,
- 15:35Speaker 2: just that the turnover variance has been insane throughout the
- 15:40Speaker 2: college football playoffs. Obviously we had Ponds with a pick
- 15:43Speaker 2: six to start the game last week, and then you
- 15:45Speaker 2: mentioned the the Mendoza fumble that his center just happened
- 15:48Speaker 2: to be right there. And then on the Miami side,
- 15:51Speaker 2: how many interceptions should they have had against Old miss
- 15:54Speaker 2: Like we talk about how there's a chance they're not
- 15:56Speaker 2: even like they're so close to not even being here.
- 15:58Speaker 2: But you know, miss they could have beat them by
- 16:01Speaker 2: two touchdowns.
- 16:01Speaker 4: It seems like they probably should have based on the
- 16:04Speaker 4: box score and the chances and opportunities that they had.
- 16:09Speaker 5: All Right, So, yeah, quarterback, you have lost the fumble
- 16:12Speaker 5: this year? Is that? Is that still? Was that the
- 16:14Speaker 5: little thing?
- 16:17Speaker 2: But I don't know, Uh, they have They lost one
- 16:24Speaker 2: to Old Dominion in Week one and they haven't lost one.
- 16:26Speaker 5: Since Old Joseph seventy five yard touchd around.
- 16:32Speaker 2: Yeah, that's crazy to think that's actually looking looking at
- 16:37Speaker 2: the box scores. That's one funny thing I've seen Old
- 16:39Speaker 2: Dominion tweeting about how close they were to being national
- 16:42Speaker 2: champions just based on how they played in Vienna.
- 16:46Speaker 4: So so that that fumble in last week, it seemed
- 16:48Speaker 4: like every break just went Indian his way as far
- 16:51Speaker 4: as fumble fumble recoveries. At any time that there was
- 16:53Speaker 4: something on the ground, it just kind of went that way.
- 16:58Speaker 4: And we saw how much kind of that skews. I
- 17:00Speaker 4: mean that that can massively be a football game, Miami.
- 17:04Speaker 4: You know that that's just kind of a that's the
- 17:06Speaker 4: word of the game. Turnovers and you just don't know
- 17:08Speaker 4: how that's going to be. Yeah, I think Indiana got
- 17:15Speaker 4: a little break this little cold front in Florida.
- 17:16Speaker 5: If it was one of those kind of hot human
- 17:18Speaker 5: nights where it.
- 17:19Speaker 4: Was in the seventies and the humidity is still there,
- 17:21Speaker 4: that's that's where Miami could have had a home field advantage.
- 17:25Speaker 4: The crowd is going to be more Indiana fans. I've
- 17:27Speaker 4: been to that stadium that I was, the stadium I
- 17:29Speaker 4: grow up going to. I'll tell you that much. For
- 17:30Speaker 4: a fact, Indiana will have more where we'll have more
- 17:33Speaker 4: fans in the stands.
- 17:36Speaker 5: That won't be a factor.
- 17:37Speaker 4: I think the home field factor in that stadium itself
- 17:39Speaker 4: is to heat the humidity, especially with teams from the
- 17:41Speaker 4: Midwest Northeast coming down that they can't they you can't
- 17:44Speaker 4: prep for that. But I think it's a little cooler
- 17:45Speaker 4: in Florida than it typically is, so they get a
- 17:49Speaker 4: little bit of a break there.
- 17:51Speaker 5: Yeah, what is the trustment?
- 17:53Speaker 2: Fifty five degrees in Florida? Sixty My mom's.
- 17:57Speaker 4: Complaining to me how cold is when she's golfing on it.
- 18:00Speaker 4: Get ten degrees out here where we are.
- 18:01Speaker 2: You known say, we haven't gotten to zero yet today?
- 18:05Speaker 4: Yeah, so you know, zero with snow on the Brown
- 18:08Speaker 4: one saw the Chicago game last night.
- 18:10Speaker 5: That's that's where I lived.
- 18:11Speaker 2: So so yeah, just looking so moving on to running back.
- 18:18Speaker 2: Now the the volume is there, we know where the
- 18:22Speaker 2: volume is going to go, Like Indiana's going to run
- 18:25Speaker 2: the ball as much as they can and if they
- 18:29Speaker 2: get ahead, they could split the Henby and Black so
- 18:32Speaker 2: many different ways. On the Miami side, is interesting because
- 18:35Speaker 2: Marty Brown had a little bit more run against Ole Miss.
- 18:39Speaker 2: Now is that a product of the opponent and how
- 18:42Speaker 2: many plays Miami ran and the fact that they could
- 18:46Speaker 2: run as much as they wanted to, Like he was
- 18:48Speaker 2: pretty effective too. You know, Fletcher still had twenty three carries.
- 18:53Speaker 5: But Brown here you mentioned Mardy Brown. It seems like
- 18:56Speaker 5: in this happened in the o House State game too.
- 18:58Speaker 5: He's kind of been the closer.
- 19:00Speaker 2: Right.
- 19:00Speaker 4: They're wearing down with Flesher, wearing down with Flesher, and
- 19:02Speaker 4: sometimes you get to the end of games like why
- 19:03Speaker 4: Fletcher not in there, especially in the goal line, and
- 19:05Speaker 4: it's because they got the fresh Marty Brown company in
- 19:08Speaker 4: Fletcher pounds and pounds and pounds them.
- 19:11Speaker 5: And if Marty Brown is seems like he's the kind
- 19:14Speaker 5: of closer guy right there.
- 19:15Speaker 4: So I don't I think it's more of a trend
- 19:18Speaker 4: than an anomaly based on the place, because it did.
- 19:21Speaker 4: He was doing that in the Ohio State game as
- 19:22Speaker 4: well to close the game. I think he had the
- 19:24Speaker 4: last touchdown in the Ohio State game.
- 19:26Speaker 2: Yep. Yeah, he's got a touchdown in the last two games,
- 19:29Speaker 2: and last week he had fourteen carries. So the increased
- 19:33Speaker 2: usage is interesting. Like I said, I don't know if
- 19:35Speaker 2: they'll run enough plays for him to get fourteen carries
- 19:37Speaker 2: again this week. But fortunately that is that a spot
- 19:40Speaker 2: we can get a guy who's gonna get double digit
- 19:43Speaker 2: touches it low single digit ownership.
- 19:47Speaker 3: Yeah, like for me, I mean, I will say the
- 19:50Speaker 3: Miami sides like way more intriguing running back, like Indiana's
- 19:54Speaker 3: pretty cut and dry. I would say, like maybe Miami
- 19:59Speaker 3: like it probably have a stouter run defense than pass defense,
- 20:03Speaker 3: like at this point in the season, like Lacy had
- 20:05Speaker 3: that huge run, but other than that, he really didn't
- 20:07Speaker 3: do a ton. But like the Miami side, like Miami
- 20:10Speaker 3: or Indiana is good against the run, but they have
- 20:13Speaker 3: been beaten by some running backs. I kind of wish
- 20:15Speaker 3: Miami had. I mean, that's kind of like Malachi Toni's role.
- 20:17Speaker 3: But if they had like a scatback, like I would
- 20:20Speaker 3: really really be interested, like more interested than these two guys.
- 20:23Speaker 3: I think they're more like in the tackles, you know.
- 20:26Speaker 3: As far as like what Tamar Brown like against Ohio State.
- 20:29Speaker 3: He finished that game, but last week he played a
- 20:31Speaker 3: lot in the first half too, like he might have
- 20:32Speaker 3: had Like they kind of almost reversed it to where
- 20:35Speaker 3: they mixed Marty Brown in more in the first half
- 20:37Speaker 3: and had Fletcher close it. One thing that was super
- 20:41Speaker 3: impressive for Miami against All Miss is how many times
- 20:44Speaker 3: did they like get in a pile and that pile
- 20:46Speaker 3: just kept moving down the field.
- 20:48Speaker 2: I don't know.
- 20:49Speaker 3: I mean, I don't know if Miami's gonna out physical
- 20:52Speaker 3: Indiana like that in the run game, Like that's totally possible.
- 20:59Speaker 5: I don't know.
- 20:59Speaker 3: I don't know if that's how it's going to shake out.
- 21:01Speaker 3: I could definitely see it, but I I do, like,
- 21:05Speaker 3: you know, Marty Brown's not getting near the ownership Fletcher is,
- 21:08Speaker 3: and like even deer Hill, like last week that huge
- 21:10Speaker 3: run he had was like a sweep out of a
- 21:12Speaker 3: shotgun around the outside. I think if they can get
- 21:15Speaker 3: these running backs maybe on the perimeter in the passing game,
- 21:18Speaker 3: and I mean that kind of helps Tony as well.
- 21:19Speaker 3: That's the spot that they could beat Indiana, you know,
- 21:22Speaker 3: as far as like the trenches go. Like I mean,
- 21:25Speaker 3: I don't know, like wait wise where Miami shakes out
- 21:27Speaker 3: as far as national lee with their offense line, but
- 21:29Speaker 3: they might have the tallest offensive line. I mean that
- 21:32Speaker 3: Mark hal Bell guy is like just like he just
- 21:35Speaker 3: stands out. He's six foot nine. He's a monster monster
- 21:38Speaker 3: at left tackle, you know. And then like Indiana, they
- 21:41Speaker 3: had Stephen Day was one of their key pieces they lost,
- 21:44Speaker 3: you know down the stretch. But the replacement the duque
- 21:47Speaker 3: or don't know for sure how to pronounce that, but
- 21:49Speaker 3: he had two sacks and the block punt against Oregon.
- 21:53Speaker 3: So I don't think they've taken as much of a
- 21:54Speaker 3: step back as like people felt with their defensive line
- 21:57Speaker 3: when they started dealing with the injuries. And they've kind
- 21:59Speaker 3: of been banged up along the defensive front this year anyways.
- 22:03Speaker 3: But I think that's kind of an interesting spot that
- 22:05Speaker 3: I'm gonna take. Like with Miami, Miami shares getting definitely
- 22:08Speaker 3: getting some like Marty Brown being overweight there yeah, and
- 22:13Speaker 3: then I mean, I guess you know the other side,
- 22:15Speaker 3: like you know, Indian and it's so weird, like still
- 22:17Speaker 3: talk like even if Indiana wins the national championship, I
- 22:21Speaker 3: still don't know if I'm gonna be able to like
- 22:22Speaker 3: picture Indiana as like that Ohio State or that you know,
- 22:25Speaker 3: that blue blood. But I mean they have an All
- 22:28Speaker 3: American left tackle, first team all big ten center, Like
- 22:30Speaker 3: they're just as well equipped, you know, to go against
- 22:33Speaker 3: this Miami defensive line as anybody. It'll just be really
- 22:37Speaker 3: interesting to see how the battle the transits works out,
- 22:40Speaker 3: you know, for these like running games like just I
- 22:42Speaker 3: think that's gonna be a huge key piece to this game.
- 22:45Speaker 5: So but yeah, I.
- 22:46Speaker 3: Guess that's kind of all I have on on the
- 22:48Speaker 3: running the running backs. I mean, Indiana's just kind of
- 22:51Speaker 3: cut and dry. You're kind of hoping for the touchdown variants.
- 22:54Speaker 3: You know, last week it was Black, you know, they
- 22:57Speaker 3: got the tuddies, and I mean, I mean, to be fair,
- 23:00Speaker 3: Black looked way better.
- 23:01Speaker 5: Than Himby last week.
- 23:02Speaker 3: I made a comment that him himby has a vision
- 23:05Speaker 3: of Trent Richardson last week running right into his lineman's ass,
- 23:09Speaker 3: like over and over and over last week it felt like,
- 23:12Speaker 3: but yeah, that's kind of it's kind of where I'm
- 23:15Speaker 3: gonna go with the RBS.
- 23:18Speaker 4: Yeah, briefly, just about the old line D line matchup. Uh,
- 23:23Speaker 4: it's kind of crazy when you think about this matchup
- 23:25Speaker 4: in the NFL picks the future NFL players, Miam's got
- 23:28Speaker 4: two top ten picks and the line D line. I
- 23:32Speaker 4: don't you know, Indian will obviously get guys that are
- 23:34Speaker 4: drafted and playing in the NFL. Obviously Mendoz is gonna
- 23:36Speaker 4: go number one overall, but beyond that, I think Miami
- 23:39Speaker 4: is stacked with a lot more like top end NFL talent,
- 23:43Speaker 4: especially in the line, which is just kind of interesting
- 23:47Speaker 4: considering there's such a massive underdogs deservedly show they should
- 23:50Speaker 4: be underdogs. But just like on paper matchup, it's just
- 23:53Speaker 4: like it's just crazy to think about that way about
- 23:57Speaker 4: who's gonna believe who, and how we were looking at
- 23:59Speaker 4: it from a different perspective.
- 24:04Speaker 2: Yeah, Yeah, that's that's a little bit of a discussion,
- 24:06Speaker 2: is how it's gonna go in the trenches. Both teams
- 24:09Speaker 2: have been pretty stellar, and one of the reasons Miami's
- 24:12Speaker 2: had some success is, you know, they run pretty tight
- 24:15Speaker 2: splits and they just don't allow you to penetrate up
- 24:18Speaker 2: the middle on the Indiana side. Though you said it, Kenny,
- 24:23Speaker 2: just looking at the numbers, Hemby's been getting more snaps
- 24:26Speaker 2: in the playoffs, He's been getting more carries for the
- 24:28Speaker 2: most part. But Black is just running the ball so
- 24:30Speaker 2: much more effectively, like he's he's been the better running back.
- 24:34Speaker 2: You know. Henby seems like he has a little bit
- 24:36Speaker 2: more pass catching up side, but I don't know if
- 24:38Speaker 2: it's enough to sway me. But it seems like a
- 24:43Speaker 2: situation where maybe you can play both. I don't think
- 24:45Speaker 2: you're gonna get a ton of leverage playing one over
- 24:47Speaker 2: the other. I think their ownerships can probably be pretty
- 24:50Speaker 2: close because they're projecting similarly. They're around the same price.
- 24:56Speaker 2: And yeah, maybe a situation where you can play both.
- 25:00Speaker 5: One quick thing.
- 25:02Speaker 3: I want to just touch on the running backs real quick.
- 25:04Speaker 3: So Pringle didn't play it all last week. I kind
- 25:07Speaker 3: of feel like he's phased.
- 25:08Speaker 5: Out, you know.
- 25:09Speaker 3: I almost wonder if Marty Brown was a little dinged
- 25:11Speaker 3: up to in the year, because Pringle just kind of
- 25:12Speaker 3: came out of nowhere and now he's completely phased out.
- 25:15Speaker 3: And then the RB three on the Indiana side, Kobe Martin.
- 25:18Speaker 3: If you think Indiana absolutely obliterates Miami, I don't mind
- 25:21Speaker 3: running Kobe Martin with four other Indiana guys, Like I
- 25:24Speaker 3: wouldn't play Kobe Martin in less there's four other Indiana guys.
- 25:27Speaker 3: But that's definitely a way to get unique where if
- 25:29Speaker 3: Martin gets like the last drive and has forty yards
- 25:32Speaker 3: in a touchdown like that could be enough to really
- 25:35Speaker 3: separate you. But those just quick couple of things I
- 25:37Speaker 3: want forgot to add.
- 25:38Speaker 4: Yeah, the build part of that is important, not kind
- 25:41Speaker 4: of on the island, right, You're talking about on a
- 25:43Speaker 4: complete Indiana onslot, right, Oh.
- 25:45Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, the only way I'm playing Martin is with
- 25:47Speaker 3: four other Indiana guys.
- 25:50Speaker 2: Yeah, and at thirty two hundred, you just look at
- 25:53Speaker 2: the likelihood if it is an Indiana onslot, what other
- 25:55Speaker 2: thirty two hundred guys going to get you more than
- 25:57Speaker 2: eight to ten points? So you know, Martin could be
- 26:00Speaker 2: that that little little difference maker. I mean, he's gonna
- 26:05Speaker 2: come in at what two to four percent owned, so
- 26:08Speaker 2: there's just nobody's gonna have him. Uh. And then the
- 26:12Speaker 2: wide receiver position might be the most interesting on the slate. Uh,
- 26:18Speaker 2: just looking. We know where it's where the ball is
- 26:20Speaker 2: gonna go for the most part, between Tony Marry and
- 26:22Speaker 2: Daniels Surat Cooper Becker. But the tight ends are interesting now,
- 26:28Speaker 2: Like we already mentioned that Lofton's out, Alex Bowman should
- 26:30Speaker 2: get a ton more run. You know, are we taking
- 26:35Speaker 2: dart throws like Joshua Moran, Jojo Trader? Are we gonna
- 26:39Speaker 2: like you already mentioned EJ. Williams two, Noah Kowski's there.
- 26:42Speaker 2: Like the ownership I would say, as a whole is
- 26:45Speaker 2: going to funnel to the top three guys for each team.
- 26:47Speaker 2: But no, I don't think there's really any ownership that's
- 26:51Speaker 2: gonna get too insane. I think it's pretty flat between
- 26:55Speaker 2: all six of these guys. So what are you what
- 26:57Speaker 2: are your thoughts on the wide receiver position here? And
- 27:00Speaker 2: I mean, do you do you just play full on
- 27:03Speaker 2: stacks and run back with wide receivers? Like it's I
- 27:07Speaker 2: want to play all six of these guys. It's kind
- 27:09Speaker 2: of what it's coming down to.
- 27:12Speaker 3: Yeah, And I you know, I mean, obviously Mary and
- 27:15Speaker 3: Daniels really really stand out from a value perspective. The
- 27:19Speaker 3: sun is really shifting throughout the day and the reflection
- 27:22Speaker 3: they're getting bad anyways, But I mean they're really obvious
- 27:25Speaker 3: from a value perspective, you know, the more in Trader
- 27:28Speaker 3: and like Gilbert, So let's see they're from a thousand
- 27:31Speaker 3: to two thousand dollars, Like I don't think like you
- 27:34Speaker 3: kind of want to watch in your build. Like if
- 27:35Speaker 3: you're building and you have three thousand dollars left off
- 27:38Speaker 3: the table and you're playing like Luca Gilbert over Marion,
- 27:43Speaker 3: that's like pretty tough, but that is something that would
- 27:46Speaker 3: separate you. Like if Gilbert Gilbert catches a ten yard
- 27:49Speaker 3: touchdown with that's eight points, and Marian just kind of
- 27:51Speaker 3: has like an average game, Like I mean he had
- 27:54Speaker 3: the best game of the season last week and a
- 27:56Speaker 3: better matchup for him like in m I mean well
- 28:01Speaker 3: that you know, like Alex Bowman is probably honestly the best,
- 28:06Speaker 3: like as far as matchups go, Like playing a tight
- 28:08Speaker 3: end against Indiana is probably like the best matchup. Maybe
- 28:14Speaker 3: I don't know, none of these guys like feel too wonderful,
- 28:17Speaker 3: but that's kind of how I do it. Like if
- 28:19Speaker 3: I'm gonna pay a cheap wide receiver for Miami, I
- 28:21Speaker 3: don't want to have a ton of salary left off
- 28:23Speaker 3: the board because you're already getting different enough. You know,
- 28:27Speaker 3: like I don't want to like cripple my lineup and
- 28:29Speaker 3: give up that much projection, you know, playing one of
- 28:32Speaker 3: those guys, if that makes if that makes any sense,
- 28:37Speaker 3: But yeah, definitely, I mean in MM settings, he's it's
- 28:40Speaker 3: not bad to have include these guys for sure, I guess. Yeah.
- 28:46Speaker 3: And then like Indiana, I mean, I love Riley Nowtowski tonight,
- 28:50Speaker 3: I think that he uh, I think like ownership, he's
- 28:53Speaker 3: on the field more than any other skill position player
- 28:56Speaker 3: for Indiana. I mean, I feel pretty confident saying he's
- 29:00Speaker 3: gonna get like a catch if he does turn maybe
- 29:04Speaker 3: like three catches and then also gets a touchdown. Like
- 29:06Speaker 3: that's a pretty competitive score to compete against Daniels and Marion.
- 29:10Speaker 3: So that's kind of where I like going for value
- 29:12Speaker 3: is the Indiana value. But yeah, and then I guess,
- 29:18Speaker 3: you know the big I guess Cooper Surrat for Indiana,
- 29:20Speaker 3: they've kind of been the guys all year. Cooper very
- 29:24Speaker 3: very specifically plays the slot, so he's not out there
- 29:27Speaker 3: as much, you know. That being said, he's had like
- 29:29Speaker 3: fourteen or fifteen touchdowns this year, so you know they
- 29:32Speaker 3: get inside the ten they I mean, I don't. I'm
- 29:35Speaker 3: not gonna pretend that I've watched every stap of Indiana,
- 29:38Speaker 3: but just looking at those numbers, it feels like like
- 29:41Speaker 3: they maybe scheme him touchdowns Indian zone, like from the
- 29:44Speaker 3: slot position.
- 29:47Speaker 5: But yeah, it's just.
- 29:48Speaker 3: Kind of you know, the one offs.
- 29:52Speaker 5: One offs in.
- 29:53Speaker 3: Your build are gonna get you a little a little
- 29:56Speaker 3: different here, you know, playing the Noatowski over the more
- 29:58Speaker 3: Marions and.
- 29:59Speaker 2: Stuff like that.
- 30:01Speaker 3: But yeah, and I guess one other thing that I
- 30:03Speaker 3: thought was kind of interesting is like the injuries in
- 30:06Speaker 3: the Miami secondary. So Xavier Lucas is out for the
- 30:11Speaker 3: first half because of a targeting penalty against Mississippi, and
- 30:16Speaker 3: Jamari Brown hasn't played at all in the playoffs. He's
- 30:19Speaker 3: expected to play, but game time decision. Don't know how
- 30:23Speaker 3: effective you know that's going to be. So the corner
- 30:25Speaker 3: that did get snaps because of Lucas getting that targeting call,
- 30:30Speaker 3: I think antone is maybe his last thing. He has
- 30:32Speaker 3: a really really poor pf F grade. I mean, that
- 30:35Speaker 3: could be a chance for Indiana in the first half
- 30:37Speaker 3: to take some shots with like Becker and Suratha play
- 30:40Speaker 3: on the outside. That would be facing that guy. You know,
- 30:43Speaker 3: just little little edges like that, the things I kind
- 30:45Speaker 3: of try to look for, and you know, in a
- 30:47Speaker 3: showdown slate, but just kind of something to think about
- 30:49Speaker 3: where you know, Miami is a little bit decimated in
- 30:52Speaker 3: the secondary. So but that's kind of kind of the
- 30:55Speaker 3: thoughts I have for now in my head here.
- 30:59Speaker 4: So yeah, I mean, from that like cash perspective, you'll
- 31:04Speaker 4: getting off of Tony scenes.
- 31:07Speaker 5: Kind of.
- 31:07Speaker 4: I don't know how you do that in that situation. Obviously,
- 31:11Speaker 4: if you're playing Indiana on slot, you're probably not going
- 31:13Speaker 4: back with Tony. I very much favore Serrat as the
- 31:19Speaker 4: cash receiver for Indiana. I just think he's possession guy,
- 31:24Speaker 4: cash pass catcher. I think he's the best receiver.
- 31:27Speaker 2: I know.
- 31:27Speaker 4: Cooper has had the touchdown variance, He's had some bigger games.
- 31:30Speaker 4: Sarat has been a little bit banged up the middle of
- 31:31Speaker 4: the year. But to me, Surrat's the number one guy.
- 31:38Speaker 5: With Parker Chair. Your targets per game seem to back
- 31:41Speaker 5: that up a little bit. Volume wise.
- 31:44Speaker 4: The tight ends our key, whether it's Noah Kowski or Bomban,
- 31:48Speaker 4: they're gonna be involved, They'll be in the field. You
- 31:51Speaker 4: can score a touchdown. Will to score a touchdown. You know,
- 31:54Speaker 4: I think one of those two guys we're gonna see
- 31:56Speaker 4: with a score and then it gets you know, I'm
- 31:59Speaker 4: not gonna be the drum that much more. With the
- 32:02Speaker 4: talk about Mary and Daniels, I do think that Daniels
- 32:04Speaker 4: has a chance to.
- 32:07Speaker 5: To show up.
- 32:08Speaker 4: You know, he came into the year as the presumed
- 32:10Speaker 4: number one receiver. He had that crazy catch in the
- 32:13Speaker 4: first game of the year. He has been over hurt.
- 32:15Speaker 4: He's not you know, he's been getting targets. Marian obviously
- 32:20Speaker 4: had the good game last week, but they'll mention that
- 32:22Speaker 4: he had seven targets last week. He's running routes, he's
- 32:26Speaker 4: out there. If there's a lot of attention given to
- 32:29Speaker 4: Tony and the secondary piece is Daniels, that could just
- 32:32Speaker 4: be volume that that adds up at a much cheaper
- 32:35Speaker 4: price than anybody else on the board. When it comes
- 32:39Speaker 4: down to Daniels, Marion, you know, are you chasing last
- 32:42Speaker 4: week's game? Are you trying to go for some upside.
- 32:44Speaker 4: I'm not saying that, Marion, that Daniels will outscore Marian.
- 32:47Speaker 4: I'm not saying that that's going to play. I just
- 32:48Speaker 4: leaned that way, just kind of.
- 32:51Speaker 5: Following where the talent, where the targets has been all year.
- 32:57Speaker 2: Yeah, and you the point too is how much are
- 33:00Speaker 2: they on the field. You brought it up early in
- 33:02Speaker 2: the show. You want guys are gonna be out there. Obviously,
- 33:04Speaker 2: Malachai Toni was on the play for eighty four snaps
- 33:06Speaker 2: against Ole Miss Yeah. CJ. Daniels played seventy five, and
- 33:10Speaker 2: then Marian played fifty nine. So you get guys that
- 33:14Speaker 2: are on the field to get your opportunity. And then
- 33:17Speaker 2: on the Indiana side too, Surratt played fifty seven snaps
- 33:20Speaker 2: against Oregon and the next closest wide receiver was Charlie
- 33:23Speaker 2: Becker with forty. So Indiana will run some rotations and
- 33:29Speaker 2: they'll run some two tight end scheme and that just
- 33:32Speaker 2: takes away one wide receiver. And like we've talked about
- 33:35Speaker 2: the entire show and basically the entire season, if they
- 33:38Speaker 2: can get up and run the ball, they will. And
- 33:41Speaker 2: just to note, Elijah Urratt has two more touchdowns in
- 33:45Speaker 2: Omar Cooper in two fewer games, so I think he
- 33:49Speaker 2: still holds the He has fifteen and Cooper has thirteen.
- 33:53Speaker 2: But Cooper did have that one huge game against the
- 33:55Speaker 2: Sycamores early in the season. That helped him out quite
- 33:59Speaker 2: a bit. One thing I want to note though, is it, uh,
- 34:01Speaker 2: Miami does play a little bit more man defense, uh
- 34:05Speaker 2: than other teams that we've seen throughout the year. And
- 34:09Speaker 2: when Indiana faces man Elijah Surratt has such a significantly
- 34:13Speaker 2: higher target share than when they face zone defense, it
- 34:16Speaker 2: kind of flattens out a little bit. And that's where
- 34:17Speaker 2: we see Mark Cooper. Now. I don't know that we're gonna, like,
- 34:21Speaker 2: we can't sit here and predict how Miami's gonna scheme
- 34:24Speaker 2: their defense, especially with the injuries and the and the
- 34:26Speaker 2: guys out on the defensive side of the ball. But
- 34:29Speaker 2: if we do see them play a little bit more man,
- 34:31Speaker 2: I mean Surat, just Surrat to me, if you want
- 34:34Speaker 2: to play them and get different play him double the
- 34:36Speaker 2: field like in the captain spot, even triple the field
- 34:39Speaker 2: in the captain spot, and then you know, stack him
- 34:42Speaker 2: differently with you know, throwing a Noakowski with him, or
- 34:45Speaker 2: when you do your runbacks, take a chance on a
- 34:47Speaker 2: bowman in a few lineups, just get a ton of exposure.
- 34:50Speaker 2: So that's that's kind of how I'm looking at It's
- 34:52Speaker 2: not necessarily finding those dart throws that's gonna catch it,
- 34:57Speaker 2: like Luca Gilbert catching a touchdown. It's it's more so
- 35:00Speaker 2: I want to take those guys that I know are
- 35:02Speaker 2: going to be on the field and give volume. And
- 35:03Speaker 2: if I see their ownerships that you know, like Surat
- 35:06Speaker 2: is at forty in the flex, I'll play an eighty percent.
- 35:13Speaker 2: And now that's just that we all love might need
- 35:18Speaker 2: a kicker, So uh, I think the most important part
- 35:22Speaker 2: of college football DFS Showdown is just knowing who the
- 35:25Speaker 2: kickers are because they don't get talked about. I we
- 35:28Speaker 2: know a little bit more because of the playoff. There's
- 35:30Speaker 2: a lot more exposure. But Nico Radicich is the kicker
- 35:33Speaker 2: for Indiana. Carter Davis is the kicker for Miami. However, Indiana,
- 35:40Speaker 2: if he's healthy, Brendan Frankie will come out and kick
- 35:43Speaker 2: the fifty plus yard field goals for Indiana. So he's probable,
- 35:48Speaker 2: so it sounds like he's going to go. So that
- 35:50Speaker 2: if you know, if Indiana does get to the on
- 35:52Speaker 2: the other side of the fifty yard line, they might
- 35:55Speaker 2: take more chances, like take fewer chances on fourth down
- 35:58Speaker 2: and kick more field goals. But whether Frankie's been in
- 36:00Speaker 2: or out. Radicich has seven DK points or more in
- 36:03Speaker 2: every single game, and he's kicking field goals at a
- 36:07Speaker 2: ninety four percent clip, but that's probably partially because he
- 36:10Speaker 2: doesn't kick the long ones. And then Carter Davis is fine.
- 36:13Speaker 2: I mean, he's he's got some upside. He's had a
- 36:15Speaker 2: couple of mid teens games on DK. And if you
- 36:18Speaker 2: think Miami is not going to be able to move
- 36:20Speaker 2: the ball all the way down the field, that have
- 36:21Speaker 2: to settle for more field goals, Uh, they're just guys
- 36:24Speaker 2: in the in the four thousand dollars range forty eight
- 36:27Speaker 2: hundred and forty four hundred. I hate playing kickers. I
- 36:30Speaker 2: like I've played him before, Like there's some games I'll
- 36:32Speaker 2: play a kicker, but I just despise it. And it
- 36:36Speaker 2: just like in this game where it feels like we
- 36:38Speaker 2: know where the volume and where the usage is going
- 36:41Speaker 2: to go on the offensive side of the ball, it
- 36:42Speaker 2: just makes it a little bit more difficult for me
- 36:44Speaker 2: to play kickers. But like, how are you guys, like,
- 36:47Speaker 2: how do you guys approach kickers in general on showdown?
- 36:49Speaker 2: And how do you do tonight?
- 36:53Speaker 3: So for me, I think like the kickers tonight, Like
- 36:56Speaker 3: the way I'm going to use him, it's going to
- 36:58Speaker 3: be like a very specific builds, like it's gonna be
- 37:01Speaker 3: a low scoring game, you know, just a rule generally
- 37:04Speaker 3: I use for kickers, which is less true in college
- 37:06Speaker 3: as I don't play like the quarterback and the kicker
- 37:09Speaker 3: together from the same team. I don't mind that with
- 37:12Speaker 3: Indiana tonight, but I don't think i'd play Carson Beck
- 37:15Speaker 3: with Carter Davis, just because like Beck's gonna be pretty
- 37:17Speaker 3: dependent on touchdowns and if they're not, you know, if
- 37:20Speaker 3: they're kicking field goals instead of scoring touchdowns, that definitely. Boy,
- 37:24Speaker 3: this son is getting ridiculous. I can't imagine how annoying
- 37:27Speaker 3: it is watching watching me. But yeah, that's kind of
- 37:31Speaker 3: how I how I I'm gonna attack the kickers. I'm
- 37:34Speaker 3: definitely gonna have some, but it's gonna be like I'm
- 37:37Speaker 3: really gonna watch my construction with them, you know, like
- 37:41Speaker 3: just looking at projections, like they have a very very
- 37:44Speaker 3: comparable projection to like even Marian and Daniels. Granted, the
- 37:49Speaker 3: ceiling is never going to be as high for a
- 37:50Speaker 3: kicker as it is for a wide receiver, but just
- 37:53Speaker 3: like from a you know, projection standpoint, like the kickers
- 37:56Speaker 3: aren't that bad at plays at all, but I think
- 37:59Speaker 3: i'd be very careful how I construct them. So those Yeah,
- 38:02Speaker 3: that's my thoughts on kickers. Definitely viable, but just be careful.
- 38:08Speaker 5: Yeah, I also can say the same thing.
- 38:10Speaker 4: You know, I think the most important thing to take
- 38:11Speaker 4: away is that is think about if you're playing the kicker,
- 38:13Speaker 4: who else you're playing with it.
- 38:15Speaker 5: You know, kickers would probably mean no quarterbacks.
- 38:19Speaker 3: So if you think this, yeah, go ahead, but no,
- 38:22Speaker 3: if you think that's designing that point. If you think
- 38:25Speaker 3: this game is like like a teams score less than
- 38:28Speaker 3: twenty points, I think I want to kick her in
- 38:31Speaker 3: my lineup.
- 38:31Speaker 5: Like that's kind of how I another way i'd approach it.
- 38:34Speaker 3: You know, if it's going to be a twenty eight
- 38:37Speaker 3: to twenty four game, I don't think I want to
- 38:39Speaker 3: kick her. If it's going to be seventeen fourteen, I
- 38:41Speaker 3: think you want to kick her. So yeah, that's kind
- 38:43Speaker 3: of just you.
- 38:44Speaker 4: Yeah, kickers would seem like with sarat Tooni and some
- 38:48Speaker 4: running backs.
- 38:49Speaker 2: Oh yeah, yeah yeah, And it's one of the most
- 38:53Speaker 2: U said, is here a ship at nation? It's not
- 38:56Speaker 2: about who you play, it's how you play them. And
- 38:57Speaker 2: I think that's a really great point that you know,
- 39:00Speaker 2: if you think Miami's kicker is gonna do a lot,
- 39:02Speaker 2: that probably means their offense isn't doing quite as much,
- 39:05Speaker 2: specifically the quarterback. So that's that's a great point. So yeah,
- 39:10Speaker 2: that that kind of that covers every position in terms
- 39:14Speaker 2: of I guess we can if you guys have any
- 39:16Speaker 2: questions in the chat before we get out of here,
- 39:18Speaker 2: throw them in now. But otherwise, are there any like
- 39:21Speaker 2: extreme stands that either of you guys are taking, not
- 39:25Speaker 2: necessarily a one guy I'm playing, but because there you're
- 39:29Speaker 2: playing almost everybody, it seems like on a showtown a slate.
- 39:32Speaker 2: But what are some of the like the stronger stands
- 39:34Speaker 2: you're taking tonight.
- 39:36Speaker 4: I'll just say I think you guys want to I'm
- 39:38Speaker 4: kind of like to Miami side, I'm gonna play Daniels.
- 39:42Speaker 4: I do like him as the second receiver there, so
- 39:46Speaker 4: I'm you're gonna see him, you know, probably more captain
- 39:49Speaker 4: side for me than otherwise.
- 39:52Speaker 3: Yeah, I like that. I kind of thought you might
- 39:53Speaker 3: be saying something along those lines from what you've been,
- 39:56Speaker 3: you know, talking, and it's probably hard to have it,
- 39:57Speaker 3: Like when you've got a sick future like that, that
- 40:00Speaker 3: is probably kind of hard to not like pull for
- 40:02Speaker 3: Miami as well, you know too, Yeah is that.
- 40:04Speaker 4: We also we been talking through these things for years now,
- 40:08Speaker 4: so we probably know what you are to think in anyway.
- 40:11Speaker 3: Yeah, I guess, you know, for me, I don't I mean,
- 40:15Speaker 3: not anything like super hot takes, but like just running
- 40:18Speaker 3: like optimal builds from like different using different sets of projections.
- 40:22Speaker 3: I'm kind of guessing like the Indiana five ones are
- 40:24Speaker 3: going to be like the ten to fifteen percent range owned.
- 40:26Speaker 3: It might even be lower than that. Like I want
- 40:29Speaker 3: probably at least twenty five percent of my portfolio the
- 40:31Speaker 3: night to have five on Indiana, if not more than that.
- 40:33Speaker 3: Like that's just kind of like my stand that I'm taking,
- 40:37Speaker 3: you know, I I don't know. I kind of want to,
- 40:40Speaker 3: you know, do some more analysis today and see how
- 40:43Speaker 3: popular that we'll will get. But as of right now,
- 40:46Speaker 3: I think that that's a kind of a hot take
- 40:48Speaker 3: just I mean, a massive you know, Indiana portfolio. But yeah,
- 40:54Speaker 3: I don't know this game is going to be I
- 40:56Speaker 3: was definitely so I went to the World Chip Fantasy
- 40:59Speaker 3: College for a World Championship last week, and I was
- 41:01Speaker 3: very glad that we got to go to Miami Old
- 41:03Speaker 3: Miss game rather than the Indiana Oregon game because that
- 41:07Speaker 3: was way more entertaining, you know, you know, for being there.
- 41:10Speaker 3: So yeah, this should be an awesome game. I I Yeah,
- 41:15Speaker 3: my biggest I guess betting stand, I got Indiana minus
- 41:18Speaker 3: thirteen and a half. That's my that's my pick today.
- 41:21Speaker 3: So I guess me and Ian are going to be
- 41:22Speaker 3: rooting against each other.
- 41:23Speaker 5: But yeah, that's all right. I like that you did
- 41:26Speaker 5: the ALLT line though, I like you one on the thirteen.
- 41:28Speaker 3: Yeah, like what's the difference between what's the difference between
- 41:31Speaker 3: eight and a half and thirteen and a half? You know, right?
- 41:34Speaker 2: So yeah, and and this one. The one thing I
- 41:40Speaker 2: keep going back to is the Michigan Washington National championship
- 41:45Speaker 2: from a couple of years ago. Leading up to the game,
- 41:50Speaker 2: I felt like we were trying to find every different
- 41:52Speaker 2: way we could that Washington could win the football game,
- 41:56Speaker 2: knowing that Michigan was the better team, and knowing that,
- 41:59Speaker 2: you know, Michigan was a favorite for a reason. Like today,
- 42:02Speaker 2: Indiana is an eight and a half point favorite. That's
- 42:04Speaker 2: pretty heavy for a national Championship game. But I went
- 42:08Speaker 2: back and I was like, yeah, you know, if they
- 42:10Speaker 2: can get the ball they with dunesay this way, or
- 42:12Speaker 2: if Pennix can actually run the ball a little bit.
- 42:14Speaker 2: This is like coming up with all these different scenarios.
- 42:16Speaker 2: I'm like, yeah, if they can shut down this person
- 42:18Speaker 2: in this part, they should be able to win. And
- 42:20Speaker 2: then Michigan just came out and beat the brakes off
- 42:22Speaker 2: of them. So I just feel like it's going to
- 42:25Speaker 2: be an Indiana onslot and two. One thing we haven't
- 42:29Speaker 2: talked a ton about specifically is in that National Championship game,
- 42:33Speaker 2: it was Blake Korn. The entire season, We're like, what
- 42:36Speaker 2: happened to Donovan Edwards? And then Donovan Edwards comes out
- 42:39Speaker 2: and runs for one hundred and four yards and two
- 42:41Speaker 2: touchdowns in the National Championship game. So that's where I
- 42:44Speaker 2: think you can maybe get a little bit cute with
- 42:46Speaker 2: your lineups and take a shot on some of these guys.
- 42:49Speaker 2: And maybe we haven't seen like a whether it's a
- 42:51Speaker 2: Marty Brown or a Jojo Trader who they've talked about
- 42:54Speaker 2: all season, he just hasn't had the usage. I don't
- 42:57Speaker 2: know that i'd go super heavy on anything like that.
- 43:00Speaker 2: But that was a situation where it's like, oh, they
- 43:03Speaker 2: opened up the playbook a little bit more and ran
- 43:05Speaker 2: a couple of things that we haven't seen yet. And
- 43:07Speaker 2: that's certainly viable in this game too. I think, all right,
- 43:14Speaker 2: we do have a question. So thoughts on a one
- 43:16Speaker 2: to five Miami receiver captain assuming garbage time, if I
- 43:20Speaker 2: goes up big, if I'm understanding correctly, is this like
- 43:23Speaker 2: a Miami like Malachai Tony captain and then five Indiana guys.
- 43:27Speaker 5: I think that's how I read it.
- 43:30Speaker 3: I mean, yeah, I guess don't don't hate it. I
- 43:33Speaker 3: guess the only like receiver that I would do that
- 43:36Speaker 3: with is Tony just because, like I mean, he could
- 43:38Speaker 3: throw a touchdown, run a touchdown. Like you don't have
- 43:40Speaker 3: to have like a Beck to push Tony. I mean,
- 43:44Speaker 3: just from like my prediction of the game, I don't
- 43:46Speaker 3: I don't necessarily, I mean, yeah, I don't hate it.
- 43:49Speaker 3: In large field, for sure, it's it's it's definitely tells
- 43:52Speaker 3: a story.
- 43:54Speaker 2: Yeah, And I feel like in that scenario you're looking at,
- 43:58Speaker 2: you know, Indiana score ran six touchdowns, but both running
- 44:04Speaker 2: backs get a rushing touchdown and then Mendoza spreads it
- 44:07Speaker 2: out on short passes or you get maybe like a
- 44:10Speaker 2: tight end rushing touchdown or something weird like that where
- 44:13Speaker 2: you know you're getting you're getting production from the offense,
- 44:16Speaker 2: but it's so spread out that and obviously I think
- 44:18Speaker 2: you're gonna have Mendoza in the flex spot in that
- 44:20Speaker 2: scenario too.
- 44:21Speaker 3: Yeah, and like really the best like the yeah, the
- 44:25Speaker 3: best snary for that lineup working out is like check
- 44:28Speaker 3: pick sixes as well to where the Indiana offense isn't
- 44:30Speaker 3: like really having to you know, push it.
- 44:34Speaker 5: I guess so, uh oh Bill, all right, are we back?
- 44:41Speaker 5: We gotcha? We gotcha.
- 44:47Speaker 2: In terms of rules on Saber tonight, I don't like
- 44:52Speaker 2: Saber sets it up so well already for each specific slate.
- 44:55Speaker 2: I typically don't mess with it too much. Really, what
- 44:58Speaker 2: it comes down to when I'm built my pools out,
- 45:00Speaker 2: it's it's making sure that I have my exposures. Like
- 45:04Speaker 2: like I said earlier, like if I'm playing Sarat, I
- 45:06Speaker 2: probably want to be double the field on him, and
- 45:09Speaker 2: I am playing Sarat and probably will be double the
- 45:10Speaker 2: field on him. But I tend more toward like making
- 45:14Speaker 2: sure that my player exposures are right especially in a
- 45:19Speaker 2: single showdown game, and then making sure that you know,
- 45:24Speaker 2: I think it's going to be an Indiana on slot,
- 45:26Speaker 2: so I'll be I'll be pushing that side a little
- 45:29Speaker 2: bit heavier.
- 45:30Speaker 4: I think, what just just taking out a lot of
- 45:32Speaker 4: stuff that Hamhock said about when you're building, thing about
- 45:36Speaker 4: building if you're if you're taking a shot on a
- 45:38Speaker 4: cheap you know, Indiana option, it means it comes with
- 45:41Speaker 4: Indian onslought.
- 45:42Speaker 5: You can say the same thing with Miami.
- 45:45Speaker 4: If you think miam is going to win, you know,
- 45:46Speaker 4: maybe it's Marty Brown with a Miami.
- 45:49Speaker 5: On slot type deal.
- 45:49Speaker 4: If you're playing kickers, you know, maybe think about if
- 45:52Speaker 4: you're playing the quarterbacks with them. So in those specific scenarios,
- 45:57Speaker 4: it's the how you're building.
- 45:59Speaker 5: The narratives are important to think about when you're blowing out.
- 46:05Speaker 2: And then one final question before we get out of here,
- 46:09Speaker 2: afci Angelo, can you throw either of both him being
- 46:12Speaker 2: black into the Mendoza pass catching group. I don't know
- 46:15Speaker 2: that i'd necessarily consider them pass catchers, but I don't
- 46:19Speaker 2: mind playing I don't mind playing both of them with Mendoza,
- 46:22Speaker 2: especially if you're gonna do a five to one stack
- 46:24Speaker 2: and think it's a non slot if you get if
- 46:27Speaker 2: if like I said, if they score six touchdowns and
- 46:30Speaker 2: you know, two or three of them go to the
- 46:31Speaker 2: running backs, I think there's a very real scenario where
- 46:34Speaker 2: both of them can be in the optimal with Mendoza.
- 46:37Speaker 4: Yeah, in the cash I don't think I would do
- 46:38Speaker 4: that in cash the mil entry, but you know, playing
- 46:41Speaker 4: my game, I just think they're eating to each other
- 46:42Speaker 4: too much.
- 46:45Speaker 3: Yeah, Like I I mean, I think that's like you're
- 46:47Speaker 3: using Mendoza in the flex there. And I guess if
- 46:51Speaker 3: if I'm interpreting your question right like the way I
- 46:53Speaker 3: do it, like if I'm building Mendoza, like I'm not
- 46:56Speaker 3: gonna have just like just Black or just him be
- 47:00Speaker 3: it'll be like Surrat and himby Surat and Black like
- 47:03Speaker 3: they'll be the second pass catcher. I wouldn't play just
- 47:05Speaker 3: them with Mendoza, you know, as you're only out per se.
- 47:10Speaker 2: So yeah, yeah, and I think if you're playing both,
- 47:14Speaker 2: it's it's definitely more of a GPP play. And if
- 47:16Speaker 2: it's an Indiana onslot, it's at least a four to two,
- 47:19Speaker 2: if not a five, probably more likely a five to
- 47:21Speaker 2: one build in that scenario, all right, so before we
- 47:25Speaker 2: get out of here, though, Hammock, we just got a
- 47:27Speaker 2: comment about it too. You want to tell us about
- 47:29Speaker 2: your background.
- 47:31Speaker 3: So the last night of the event, they have like
- 47:34Speaker 3: these posters for DraftKings set up, and my guest went
- 47:37Speaker 3: up and asked one of the guys, like, hey, can
- 47:38Speaker 3: I have one of those? And they gave him one,
- 47:40Speaker 3: and they had another one. So I took the other one,
- 47:42Speaker 3: and then I had like some room in my like
- 47:44Speaker 3: I shipped my golf clubs down there, and so I
- 47:46Speaker 3: threw them back in with my golf clubs and shipped
- 47:48Speaker 3: them back home. And I was like, what better way
- 47:50Speaker 3: to you know, display them? You know, I don't know,
- 47:53Speaker 3: Maybe I should put one in my room. Wouldn't that
- 47:55Speaker 3: be cool?
- 47:57Speaker 5: You earned it, man, you earned it this year. Dominant,
- 48:00Speaker 5: I'm in the college football season.
- 48:01Speaker 2: Yeah, a heck of a season. He plays finished at
- 48:04Speaker 2: the College Football World Championship.
- 48:06Speaker 3: Yeah, and like that, I mean, I'm not going to
- 48:09Speaker 3: buy any means say like go for live events because
- 48:11Speaker 3: they definitely take some bank roll and you have to
- 48:14Speaker 3: like get first to qualify and then you have to
- 48:15Speaker 3: play through a playdown. But like that event was awesome.
- 48:18Speaker 3: There's only ten competitors, so it's a lot more intimate.
- 48:21Speaker 3: Like I've been to other stuff and it's like it's
- 48:23Speaker 3: just me and my guest kind of hanging out. Well,
- 48:25Speaker 3: this one there was like a whole group of us,
- 48:27Speaker 3: like you out the whole time. Just it made the
- 48:30Speaker 3: weekend really fun. Like it was definitely, I mean, the
- 48:32Speaker 3: game was awesome. Just getting to hang out with everybody
- 48:35Speaker 3: was just as you know, just as fun.
- 48:36Speaker 4: So yeah, it was.
- 48:38Speaker 3: It was a great live final. I definitely. You know,
- 48:40Speaker 3: if there's one that you're gonna pick in a sport,
- 48:42Speaker 3: that's definitely a good one, I think.
- 48:46Speaker 5: Yeah. And you get to be in at a game,
- 48:48Speaker 5: at a semi final game.
- 48:50Speaker 3: Right, That's what makes like the golf one in the
- 48:52Speaker 3: college football and so much better is because you actually
- 48:54Speaker 3: get to go to the event.
- 48:55Speaker 5: Yeah.
- 48:57Speaker 2: Yeah, that's definitely sweetens the pot for those sports. And
- 49:01Speaker 2: it was just awesome to see, uh see your name
- 49:05Speaker 2: up on the at the top of the charte to
- 49:07Speaker 2: know the ship in Nation was part of the College
- 49:09Speaker 2: Football World Championship. And then like I said, you got
- 49:12Speaker 2: you got the fun game of the semifinal game, more
- 49:15Speaker 2: more entertaining one. So uh, I think that's gonna do it, guys.
- 49:19Speaker 2: I appreciate you guys hopping on and joining me. It's
- 49:21Speaker 2: not often we get to do a live show, and
- 49:23Speaker 2: it's not often we get to have more than one
- 49:25Speaker 2: talking head up here. So to have three breaking it
- 49:27Speaker 2: down on a Monday morning, it's just awesome.
- 49:30Speaker 4: Yeah go look, everyone happy and last day of college
- 49:33Speaker 4: football season has been a great year.
- 49:34Speaker 5: Befoward again next year.
- 49:37Speaker 3: Oh yeah, who who? Who? Who's yours ready for You're
- 49:41Speaker 3: gonna be a lot of Yeah, we're gonna get I know.
- 49:44Speaker 4: What, pull my gaeor helmet out first. But you know,
- 49:51Speaker 4: I hope everyone wins some money.
- 49:53Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, that's that's the most important thing. Let's see
- 49:55Speaker 2: those ship in nation flags flying up top, and if
- 49:57Speaker 2: you're watching, you're not part of the nation. We have
- 49:58Speaker 2: this banner here on the screen five days for nineteen bucks.
- 50:01Speaker 2: If you want our college football content for tonight, it's
- 50:04Speaker 2: less than twenty bucks and you get five days so
- 50:06Speaker 2: you can get a peek into PGA season two, which
- 50:08Speaker 2: just started up, and just get the whole shebang. So
- 50:12Speaker 2: definitely a great time to join as we get as
- 50:14Speaker 2: we end football season and get into PGA. But like
- 50:17Speaker 2: I said, that's gonna do it for this college football show.
- 50:19Speaker 2: Let's go out there and ship them for the big
- 50:20Speaker 2: guy tonight.