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The perils of the campaign trail · Inside Politics

• 0:02
  S1: From the newsrooms of the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.
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  S1: This is inside politics. I'm Jacqueline Maley, it's Monday, March 31st.
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  S1: As you would know by now, an election date has
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  S1: finally been called and we have a five week campaign
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  S1: before voting day on May the 3rd. Here, from the
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  S1: newsrooms of The Age and the Sydney Morning Herald, we're
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  S1: going to bring you our humble podcast twice a week
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  S1: for the duration of the campaign. So today we're going
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  S1: to bring you news of the latest polling, which is
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  S1: very interesting indeed. And we will also have the lovely
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  S1: Tony Wright talk us through the art of political campaigning
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  S1: and the best and worst moments from campaign trails past.
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  S1: First of all, let me welcome Jim Reid, the director
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  S1: of the SMH and The Age's pollster resolve. Welcome to
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  S1: the pod, Jim.
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  S2: Good to be back with you.
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  S1: The latest results of the RPM poll suggest that Albanese
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  S1: has gained a bit of an upper hand. 42% of
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  S1: voters now think that he will win, while only 34%
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  S1: expected Dutton's victory. So what has changed? Exactly.
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  S2: Yeah, it's been a really big turnaround in our polling, which, uh,
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  S2: our latest poll has used a larger than normal monthly
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  S2: sample of over 3000 people. Um, so it's pretty accurate. Um,
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  S2: it was looking like a minority government leaning towards the coalition.
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  S2: But in the last five weeks that's turned back towards
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  S2: labor somewhat. And most other polls are now showing the
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  S2: same trend this month as well. So we have, you know,
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  S2: quite a bit of confidence that that trend is real. Um,
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  S2: that expectation you mentioned of who's going to win is,
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  S2: is actually really important because it tells people, uh, it
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  S2: tells us how many people are gauging the relative importance
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  S2: of the parties, which isn't always reflected in, in votes
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  S2: straight away. And it also tells us what people are
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  S2: hearing from their social circle as well about who might win.
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  S2: So it's kind of a an early proxy for for vote,
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  S2: if you like, an early warning system. I think what's
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  S2: changed is that people have stopped just judging Albanese on
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  S2: the cost of living and the referendum, as they have
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  S2: been for the last two years, on distraction and and
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  S2: relative competence. And they've started comparing him to Dutton in
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  S2: an election context. And in the in the last few weeks,
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  S2: the government have looked focused while the opposition have been,
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  S2: you know, defending themselves on on Dutton's past dealings, on
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  S2: announcing and then debating and retracting policy and, and generally, uh,
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  S2: you know, flapping around like stunned mullets in certain circumstances.
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  S1: Yeah, yeah. So the polls still show that labor is
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  S1: very much neck and neck with the coalition in terms
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  S1: of the two party preferred vote, which is just literally
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  S1: sitting on 50 over 50. That's better than it was
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  S1: for Albanese, for the for the labor government. But it
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  S1: still puts us firmly in minority government territory, doesn't it?
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  S2: Yeah. That's right. Our poll is exactly right on 50
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  S2: over 50. Um, our latest poll. And that result tells
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  S2: us that the major parties are kind of starting at
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  S2: the same starting line for, for the five week campaign ahead. Um,
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  S2: so there's everything to play for if you like. But
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  S2: it also shows us that momentum is with Labour. After
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  S2: the first five weeks of what has turned out to
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  S2: be an extended ten week campaign. Um, and I think the,
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  S2: you know, the delay caused by Cyclone Alfred has actually
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  S2: been very kind to, to labour in allowing them a
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  S2: budget in that extra time reflection on Dutton. But what
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  S2: I would emphasize to you, to, to your listeners here
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  S2: is that it's really unpredictable right now because we have
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  S2: that close result of 50 over 50. Um, the trend
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  S2: is all over the place. We've got a third of
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  S2: voters that are still uncommitted, and we have a huge
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  S2: crossbench as well. So that makes the campaign really important.
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  S2: It wasn't so important in recent state elections like WA,
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  S2: like Queensland and in the territory in the Act. We
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  S2: kind of knew the outcome with some certainty before the campaign,
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  S2: but here the campaign really counts.
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  S1: So Albanese has also gained a considerable lead on Dutton
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  S1: in the preferred PM stakes. I just wonder with this measure,
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  S1: obviously it's not a bad thing if you're the preferred
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  S1: Prime minister, but how does it play into or interact
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  S1: with how people actually vote in their electorates? Like, is this,
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  S1: you know, is this a particularly meaningful measure of who's
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  S1: going to win the election?
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  S2: Oh, it really does count. We're not a presidential system
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  S2: like the like like the US, for example. But people
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  S2: do vote on the leaders and they use the leaders
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  S2: names interchangeably with the parties. When we talk to people
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  S2: in focus groups and interviews. So it is very, very important.
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  S2: They they sort of personify the parties. It's interesting they
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  S2: don't do that for minor parties often. They don't do
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  S2: it for the Greens. They don't do it for the teals.
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  S2: They talk about their local candidates. But in this case
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  S2: we're seeing very strong movements on leadership. Albanese is now
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  S2: back to preferred prime minister. Um, he also equals Dutton
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  S2: on his, uh, performance for the first time in some months. Uh,
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  S2: and labor also gained, you know, almost across the board
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  S2: on things like communications delivery, having a strong team management
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  S2: on a number of policy fronts, and that that tells us,
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  S2: along with the trend starting before the budget, that this
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  S2: isn't a budget bounce, it's actually a competence bounce. Um,
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  S2: after the rate rise, the cyclone and and the budget
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  S2: included in that.
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  S1: Okay. And strangely, though, Dutton is still considered the better
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  S1: leader to deal with Donald Trump. Tell us about that
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  S1: and whether you think it's an important measure.
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  S2: They do. They do. They do say Dutton is preferred
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  S2: to deal with Trump. In fact, Dutton in the coalition
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  S2: still hold a lead on a on a number of things.
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  S2: The difference in the last poll is that they don't
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  S2: lead on everything. They they share those leads with labor,
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  S2: which is why we have 50 over 50. The Trump
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  S2: lead is an interesting one because it's not necessarily positive.
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  S2: The rest of our polling is now telling us that
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  S2: Trump is is is pretty toxic. Um, he wasn't popular
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  S2: in Australia anyway. Our politics tends to skew more to
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  S2: the left or more more to the centre, depending on
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  S2: your your your frame of reference. But at least there
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  S2: is kind of an openness to see what what what
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  S2: he was doing when he was first elected before he
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  S2: was Inaugurated in the last few weeks, we now have 60%
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  S2: of Australians saying Trump is bad for Australia, and in
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  S2: fact he's considered more of a threat than Russia to Australia.
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  S2: And our polling, which is which tells you a great deal.
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  S2: But the metric being best able to deal with Trump
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  S2: isn't necessarily the positive attribute it once was. You know,
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  S2: that is. Does it mean he could be better on
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  S2: dealing with tariffs and other things? Or does it mean
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  S2: people believe that he would bring Trump esque policies here on,
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  S2: you know, tariffs on cuts on not supporting Ukraine anymore,
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  S2: for example. And that's a little bit up in the air.
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  S2: A bit of a question mark.
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  S1: Yeah. Okay. Thank you so much for joining us Jim
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  S1: I really appreciate it. We might have you back again
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  S1: before the end of the campaign to to check in again.
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  S3: I'd love to. Thanks. Thanks very much.
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  S1: And now we're going to welcome our very own Tony Wright,
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  S1: coming to us live from Melbourne. Tony, it is such
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  S1: a pleasure to have you on.
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  S4: Thanks very much indeed, Jacqueline. Lovely to talk to you.
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  S1: Tony, our leaders hit the campaign trail over the weekend
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  S1: and of all the things we know they're desperate to do,
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  S1: the highest on that list is to avoid a campaign blunder.
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  S1: Capital C, capital B, and yet we love the blunders
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  S1: as voters or as viewers because they're entertaining and they're real.
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  S1: They're actually moments of authenticity. I just wanted to get
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  S1: you to give us a sort of historical perspective on campaigns.
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  S1: First of all, because your first campaign that you covered
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  S1: was in 1983, wasn't it?
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  S4: It was, yes, quite a while ago now.
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  S1: And that was Hawke.
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  S4: That was between Malcolm Fraser and Bob Hawke. Yeah, it
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  S4: was when Bob Hawke arrived. And in fact, the greatest
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  S4: blunder of that campaign was performed before the election actually
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  S4: began by, um, Malcolm Fraser, who, uh, well, he was
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  S4: caught with his pants down. Really? He, um, he went
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  S4: off to the governor general to call an election. Thinking
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  S4: he was being pretty smart because he'd heard a rumour
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  S4: around the place that it was fairly imminent, that the
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  S4: Labour Party wanted to get rid of Bill Hayden as
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  S4: its leader and replace him with, um, Bob Hawke. And
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  S4: so Malcolm Fraser thought, well, we'd better, better do something
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  S4: before that happens. And they so they can't get Hawke
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  S4: in and all the rest of it. So he went
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  S4: out to see Sir Ninian Stephen, who was the governor
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  S4: general at the time, and it took some time to
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  S4: get all the things in place and signed and all
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  S4: the rest of it. And by the time that Malcolm
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  S4: Fraser came back to the Parliament to call the election, Bill,
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  S4: Hayden had been forced to resign and Bob Hawke was leader. So, um,
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  S4: Malcolm Fraser and the liberals were caught very short indeed.
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  S4: And that showed right through the election, really, because Bob
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  S4: Hawke was a campaigner that, uh, you wouldn't want to
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  S4: come up against. Really. And at that time, of course, um,
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  S4: Bob Hawke was, uh, riding high. He'd been he'd been
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  S4: the ACTU chief. He'd been the white knight who fixed
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  S4: up all sorts of, uh, union, uh, problems and, and
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  S4: strikes and all the rest of it. And he had
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  S4: that larrikin streak in him that voters turned out to love.
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  S4: And Malcolm Fraser didn't.
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  S1: Yeah. I mean, that larrikin streak and his his popularity
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  S1: and the comment, I suppose what you might call the
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  S1: common touch is sort of well known now, but that
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  S1: would have been the first time that you'd saw it
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  S1: on display on such a large sort of platform. So
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  S1: what did he do in that campaign that was so brilliant?
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  S1: I mean, what was he like to watch up close?
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  S4: He had something of the common touch those days. Of course,
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  S4: you had things like outdoor rallies and people could, you know,
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  S4: fill a city square and and listen to a leader
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  S4: up close and see them. One of the things that
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  S4: Bob Hawke had that I've never seen any other leader, um, equal.
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  S4: And that was his memory for names. There was a
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  S4: period where he was walking through, um, a mall or
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  S4: I think in Brisbane. And, um, there were a couple
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  S4: of people, older people yelling out, oh, Bob, Bob, Bob!
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  S4: And he kept walking. He got to the end. And
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  S4: those around him, his minders, thought that they could feel
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  S4: him vibrating and listening to his own memory. And he
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  S4: turned around and came back and he said, oh, sorry, sorry.
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  S4: I walked straight past you. Bev and Cole, um, lovely
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  S4: to see you. He hadn't seen those people more than
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  S4: once in his life, and it was about ten years previously.
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  S4: And of course, everyone around them was astounded. They told
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  S4: all their friends and relatives and so forth, and those
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  S4: sort of things have a ripple effect. But Hawk just well,
• 11:08
  S4: we all know famously he he could get away with anything. Um, and, uh,
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  S4: he had this thing of the everyman. It's quite impossible
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  S4: to to put your finger right on it.
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  S1: Yeah. What of. I mean, you've covered campaigns since 1983.
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  S1: I can't do the maths because I'm a journalist and
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  S1: we're famously innumerate. But what are some of the best
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  S1: and the worst moments that you've seen? You know, the
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  S1: highlights and the low lights and a low light for
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  S1: a politician might be a highlight for us.
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  S4: Well, I guess one of the most recent was the
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  S4: last election when on the very first day of the campaign,
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  S4: Anthony Albanese went out and couldn't tell anybody what the
• 11:50
  S4: reserve Bank, um, cash rate was. The interest rate.
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  S5: National unemployment rate at the moment is, uh. I think
• 11:59
  S5: it's 5.4. Sorry, I'm not sure what it is. Yeah.
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  S4: And then couldn't, uh, name the unemployment rate.
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  S5: We can do the old, uh, old Q&A stuff. Over
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  S5: 50 different, uh, over 50, 50 different figures.
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  S4: And a lot of people thought it was fatal. First day.
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  S4: Couldn't remember the two most important, uh, figures, uh, about
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  S4: the economy. And he wanted to be, uh, prime minister. Well,
• 12:29
  S4: he was very fortunate, of course, because he was up against, uh,
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  S4: Scott Morrison, who by then was on the nose across
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  S4: the nation and, uh, who then created one of the greatest, uh,
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  S4: site blunders, I guess, of an election campaign when he, uh,
• 12:43
  S4: spear tackled a little kid at a soccer match and
• 12:46
  S4: torpedoed him into the ground. Um, this was at the
• 12:52
  S4: very time that that he's trying to, uh, shrug off
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  S4: his reputation for being a bulldozer.
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  S1: Yeah. And we knew that they that they realized that
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  S1: they'd made that Morrison had made a big blunder because
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  S1: I think he tried to spin it in the next
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  S1: few days and say that, you know, he's he's a bull.
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  S1: He can be a bit of a bulldozer, but that
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  S1: means he gets things done or something.
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  S4: You never want to try to spin these things. If
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  S4: you've made a blunder, own up to it.
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  S1: What are the moments? I mean, have you ever sort of,
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  S1: when you're watching a campaign, have you ever thought, well,
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  S1: he's won it or she's just lost it when, you know,
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  S1: really pivotal moments that have actually turned a campaign, in
• 13:31
  S1: your opinion?
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  S4: Well, I guess you could say that when Howard, um, was, uh,
• 13:36
  S4: launching his campaign quite late. Late in the campaign, by
• 13:39
  S4: the way, they tend to leave their official launches late
• 13:42
  S4: because they don't have to pay for it up till then.
• 13:44
  S4: We do. Um, he was giving his, uh, speech to
• 13:49
  S4: the faithful, and he came out with that deathless phrase.
• 13:55
  S5: We will decide who comes to this country and the
• 13:57
  S5: circumstances in which they come.
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  S4: Well, if he hadn't won the election by then, he had,
• 14:05
  S4: I think. I think we all agreed as soon as
• 14:07
  S4: we heard that, because this was an election about national security,
• 14:11
  S4: it was about, um, boats and, and what to do about, uh,
• 14:16
  S4: asylum seekers and all the rest of it. And it,
• 14:19
  S4: it sort of created this, um, time of of fear,
• 14:23
  S4: I suppose, but getting the people on his side, we
• 14:27
  S4: will decide. That was a very big moment. That same election, um,
• 14:33
  S4: Kim Beazley really wasn't up to it. Um, I don't
• 14:36
  S4: think anyone could have been really the Tampa 911. All
• 14:40
  S4: those things happened that year. Um, just before the election. Really?
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  S1: Yeah. He really galvanized the nation with that, with that line,
• 14:49
  S1: didn't he? And he really defined, um, immigration policy and
• 14:52
  S1: national security policy for to generate, you know, the next
• 14:55
  S1: generation when he said that he did.
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  S4: Yeah. For good or for bad. And, um, then, of course,
• 15:01
  S4: it was years later. Mark Latham looming over John Howard
• 15:06
  S4: and crushing his hand in a handshake. And it just
• 15:10
  S4: made him look like a bully. And the election was over.
• 15:13
  S4: That was 2004. Really?
• 15:15
  S1: Yeah. That was that was a really powerful moment, wasn't it?
• 15:18
  S1: Because Mark Latham obviously, um, thought that he would come
• 15:22
  S1: out the better from that little display where he gave
• 15:25
  S1: that very hearty, overly hearty handshake to, um, to John Howard.
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  S1: And the cameras, of course, captured it all. But as
• 15:32
  S1: you say, he just came off looking like a bully
• 15:34
  S1: with possibly a fragile ego.
• 15:36
  S4: I think John John Howard played it rather well for himself, too,
• 15:39
  S4: by not taking a backward step and actually moving in
• 15:43
  S4: so that this great big looming figure, um, looked even
• 15:48
  S4: more bullying over John Howard's relatively, uh, small frame.
• 15:54
  S1: More diminutive frame in terms of the actual campaigns. I mean, we,
• 15:58
  S1: you know, it's only a few weeks and you think,
• 16:00
  S1: what does that really matter in the term of a government,
• 16:03
  S1: which is, you know, three years, but they can actually
• 16:06
  S1: turn elections, can't they? And, and, I mean, they can
• 16:09
  S1: actually turn people's opinions because it's when, you know, voters
• 16:13
  S1: really switch on and they actually size up one leader
• 16:15
  S1: against the other and one set of policies against the other.
• 16:18
  S1: What are some of the most powerful campaigns overall that
• 16:22
  S1: you've seen that have really changed opinion?
• 16:24
  S4: Well, I think, um, Paul Keating, 1993, he looked as
• 16:29
  S4: if he was, you know, gone for all money that
• 16:32
  S4: John Hewson was going to win and so forth. And
• 16:34
  S4: he sized up this, um, great big policy that I
• 16:38
  S4: spoke about fightback that John Hewson came out with. And
• 16:41
  S4: he was relentless.
• 16:43
  S5: I asked the Prime Minister, if you are so confident
• 16:46
  S5: about your view of fightback, why won't you call an
• 16:50
  S5: early election? The member for Higgins might. Because I want
• 16:57
  S5: you slowly. I want to do this well.
• 17:01
  S4: Against all odds. Keating won. Keating didn't even think he
• 17:04
  S4: was going to win, I'm pretty sure. And certainly none
• 17:07
  S4: of the pollsters and none of the, uh, those of
• 17:10
  S4: us who were following. So that was a that was
• 17:12
  S4: a very powerful campaign when you look back at it.
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  S1: And okay, let's just end now with, um, Albanese v Dutton.
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  S1: We've obviously seen a little bit of Albanese last election campaign,
• 17:23
  S1: as you mentioned before. He was very shaky to begin with.
• 17:26
  S1: He got a few key figures wrong, and he was
• 17:29
  S1: really given a gift, I suppose, because Scott Morrison was
• 17:32
  S1: so unpopular and was very well known. What do you
• 17:35
  S1: expect from Albanese during this campaign in terms of energy, enthusiasm, messaging?
• 17:41
  S1: And also what about Dutton, because he's very much an unknown.
• 17:45
  S4: Well, that's the problem for Dutton. I suppose that he
• 17:47
  S4: is unknown. And people are going to have to, um,
• 17:49
  S4: to get to know him because, as you pointed out,
• 17:52
  S4: people really don't engage in Politics in huge numbers for
• 17:59
  S4: long periods, and then suddenly there's an election campaign and
• 18:02
  S4: people realise that they've got to actually vote at the
• 18:04
  S4: end of it. So they do become engaged and do
• 18:08
  S4: start looking at leaders. They've got a fair idea of
• 18:12
  S4: of Albanese. And while up to this point, uh, it's
• 18:17
  S4: probably best to say that, uh, a lot of people
• 18:21
  S4: aren't terribly impressed. But at the same time, he has
• 18:25
  S4: been very careful not to impress people with, uh, with
• 18:29
  S4: wild behaviour or otherwise. But I think we can go
• 18:34
  S4: to much about the leaders these days. Up to now, um,
• 18:40
  S4: it's generally been a horse race between two major parties.
• 18:47
  S4: Last election changed things a lot, and that is that
• 18:50
  S4: the major parties primary vote was appalling. And independence, teals
• 18:57
  S4: and others. Um, took over the slack, and it just
• 19:03
  S4: seems to me that this election will be less about
• 19:06
  S4: looking at leaders and more about looking at specific seats.
• 19:11
  S4: People have got a bit of an idea of them,
• 19:13
  S4: and I think that's why the the there was this
• 19:15
  S4: change in the polls because, um, suddenly they started looking at, uh,
• 19:20
  S4: Peter Dutton and started looking for policies and they weren't
• 19:23
  S4: finding very many. And he was also being described by those, uh,
• 19:30
  S4: with a sense of humor as a Teemu Trump, because
• 19:34
  S4: some of his policies getting rid of tens of thousands
• 19:39
  S4: of public servants, for starters, just didn't play.
• 19:44
  S1: Yeah, yeah. And certainly Albanese's been strongly implying that, um,
• 19:48
  S1: that Dutton has been stealing his policies for Donald Trump,
• 19:50
  S1: if not saying it outright. Tony, thank you so much
• 19:53
  S1: for joining us. Um, we might have you back again
• 19:55
  S1: once the campaign gets underway. Proper and hopefully people do.
• 19:59
  S1: You know, there's some crazy stuff. There's some unpredictable stuff.
• 20:01
  S1: Maybe a small child will be tackled again. You know,
• 20:05
  S1: we can hope for the best.
• 20:07
  S4: Thanks very much, Jacqueline. And there's no doubt that as
• 20:10
  S4: the campaign gets going, there'll be lots more to talk about.
• 20:13
  S1: Indeed. See you later, Tony.
• 20:15
  S4: Thank you.
• 20:18
  S1: Today's episode of Inside Politics was produced by Julia Katzel.
• 20:22
  S1: Our executive producer is Tammy Mills. Inside politics is a
• 20:26
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• 20:29
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• 20:47
  S1: in the show. Notes. I'm Jacqueline Maley, this is Inside politics.
• 20:50
  S1: Thank you for listening.