Latest / Money Grows on Trees / #302 - How To Make A FORTUNE From Trumps Takeover

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#302 - How To Make A FORTUNE From Trumps Takeover · Money Grows on Trees

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  Trump just gave you a way to make a fortune, and 99% of investors
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  will completely miss it. Most people hear Trump
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  and Venezuela, and they think politics, they think chaos, and
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  they think it's got nothing to do with them. But if you knew what to look for,
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  you'd see something completely different. you'd see oil, you
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  would see power, you would see sanctions lifting, and
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  you'd see one company, just one, that's positioned better than
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  anyone else on the planet to make billions from this
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  shift. I'm talking about the largest proven oil reserves in
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  the world. a company that's already on the ground and a political realignment that
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  just changes absolutely everything. So in this video,
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  I'm going to show you exactly why this company is about to print
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  money and how you can position yourself to profit before the
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  rest of the market wakes up. It isn't speculation, this is
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  structure, this is positioning and this is incentives. I'm
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  Lloyd James Ross, seven figure investor and entrepreneur and I've helped thousands
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  of business owners and professionals turn financial stress into
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  success. If you're stuck in old money habits, overwhelmed by investing
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  or unsure where to start, this is for you. I'll give you the mindset
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  and strategies to take control, grow your wealth and achieve
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  financial freedom. It's time to make your money work for you.
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  Why Venezuela suddenly matters again. So
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  Venezuela isn't just another struggling country. It sits on
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  the world's largest proven oil reserves of heavy crude
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  on the planet. Here's the problem. Years of
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  sanctions by the states have crushed the oil production there. The
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  infrastructure has been dilapidated, it's collapsed, capital has fled, and
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  oil output fell from three to four million barrels a day to a fraction of that.
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  But here's the reality. The oil is still there. The
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  US still wants energy security, particularly against China. And
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  global supply remains tight, and demand's going up and
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  up and up and up. A political shift changes everything when it
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  comes to oil. So why has the Trump administration changed
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  the game here? Well, Trump's always been energy first. You
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  know, drill, baby, drill. And certainly America first. So
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  here's why that matters. Trump's prioritizing cheap,
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  reliable oil supply. And he's far
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  more willing to cut deals and enforce a long-term isolation of that than anyone else.
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  He wants to weaken it geopolitically against China and
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  Russia by controlling energy flows, particularly in Venezuela. So
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  if Venezuela reopens under a Trump framework, which it looks like it will be,
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  it won't be charity. It will be absolutely transactional. And
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  that means the US companies get in first. And he just recently had
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  a meeting with those US companies, and he had them all
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  in the Oval Office. He brought them in, and they're all there. Mobil, Exxon
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  Mobil, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, all the major oil companies,
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  particularly in the United States. And so he's
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  wanting, and he said this many times in the past, he's
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  wanting oil to be cheap. And
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  so that's better for the everyday American, who
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  he stands for, right? But most importantly, he also knows
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  that if he didn't do what he did with Venezuela, China
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  was about, in fact, China was already there on the ground. They'd
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  already sent diplomats to negotiate oil deals with Venezuela as
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  they bombed, sorry, as they kidnapped the
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  dictator of Venezuela. So he
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  made a mark. And the reason why he wanted to do that is because he knew if he didn't do it,
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  China was about to take the oil. If you think about this, what has happened
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  in the world is there's a massive race to AGI, basically
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  artificial general intelligence. And everybody knows that
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  the country who achieves AGI first wins. What's
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  this got to do with oil, right? And the reason why it's got
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  to do with oil is because you can't build data centers. You can't build,
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  well, you can't really build anything and develop anything without oil. A
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  lot of people don't realize that feedstock, which is all the things required to create
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  plastics and build anything
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  in the world, is all about oil. If we look at who produces the most oil,
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  it's the United States. So they're very oil-thirsty. However, China
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  is certainly oil-thirsty as well. So China's
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  intention was to take or do a deal with
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  Venezuela to take all the heavy crude and send
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  it out to China. So China was buying the heavy crude from Venezuela. And of
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  course, they're buying it from Russia. So both the United States and China
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  have got this thirst, endless thirst for oil. And
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  so Trump and the administration is like, well, if Venezuela is in our backyard, it's
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  right below us. This is our backyard. And China's coming to
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  take the oil from our own backyard. Are you kidding me? That ain't going to happen. So
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  what they did was they took matters in their own hands. They went and they kidnapped
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  the dictator of Venezuela. in
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  an incredible move by the special forces. And they
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  then now have taken over effectively Venezuela. And
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  Venezuela was sending oil money to Cuba. So now Cuba's in trouble and
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  it's destabilized that region in terms of the deals that were
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  happening. And it certainly put a wrench in the
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  spoke of China's wheel on its bike. So now
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  the US does control Venezuela,
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  which has got arguably, in fact, it has, I think it's to the
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  tune of about three I want to say 300 billion
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  barrels of oil there. But it's heavy crude. And
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  what I mean by that is heavy crude is not easy to refine. And
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  heavy crude is more used in jet fuel, rocket fuel, and
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  feedstock. But it's super important. And so what's
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  interesting about that is that now that Venezuela has been taken over, Trump's
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  like, well, now how do we get the oil out of the ground? Because as I said, the infrastructure is
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  dilapidated. There's not a lot of security on the ground there. Even
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  ExxonMobil, the CEO of Exxon in the office of Trump the other day, said,
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  hey, it's actually uninvestable. And Trump's like, well, ExxonMobil is
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  not getting in there. So they went on board. But it tells you
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  that there's oil in the ground, but it's like, how do we get it
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  out? And so I think what's going to happen is
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  the companies that can successfully do that are going to
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  be best positioned right now. So out of all the oil companies, let's have a look at the oil companies
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  for a second. This is important for you to understand. There was a company once founded
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  by John D. Rockefeller, the richest man in the world. And he developed
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  and founded and scaled a company called Standard Oil. And Standard Oil,
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  at one point in time, cornered the market and really owned
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  85% of the refining market. Can you believe that? 85% of
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  the oil refining market was owned by John Deere Rockefeller. That's why he became the richest man in the world.
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  And once upon, well, about in the thirties or forties, they went through an antitrust.
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  It might've been in the early thirties. They went through an antitrust court case where
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  they broke up John D. Rockefeller's company, Standard Oil, and they broke it
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  up into different companies. And the companies that have
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  ventuated from that are ExxonMobil, Chevron,
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  I believe some versions of Shell, but basically it's all progeny
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  of Standard Oil. And so the largest oil companies in the States
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  are real progeny of Standard Oil. And Chevron is one of those. In
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  fact, Chevron is arguably one of the biggest. It's not quite as
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  big as ExxonMobil, which is the biggest, but Chevron would have to
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  be the second biggest and one of the most well-known brands when it comes to
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  oil. It's a very fully integrated oil company. And
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  it explores oil, drills for oil, it refines oil,
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  and it also distributes oil through its products and its service stations as well.
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  So it's what's called a fully integrated oil
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  producer and refiner. And it is a powerful company.
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  And here's why Chevron specifically is positioned perfectly
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  to actually take advantage of this Venezuela situation, right? Chevron
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  isn't just hoping to enter Venezuela, right? They're actually already there.
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  They're on the ground. In fact, Chevron has been in Venezuela for 100 years.
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  So even with the sanctions, Chevron decided to do some
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  deals there and stay on the ground, right? So Chevron's got lasting,
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  long-standing joint ventures in Venezuela already. It already understands the
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  fields. It already understands the geology. It already understands and has the logistics in
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  place. It's got existing relationships and obviously, as I said, it's
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  got a huge operating history there. So it can scale faster than any
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  new entrant straight away, right? So as the sanctions start to loosen, and
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  we all know speed wins, Chevron doesn't need to start from zero. So
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  as I said, what makes Chevron effective in that space is it's got
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  first mover advantage, but also it's an integrated fortress. So
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  it's got this massive advantage of not just being, not just pulling
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  the oil out of the ground there, which they're great at, right? It's going to be
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  the matter of they can take it, they can refine it, et cetera. So
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  here's what happens to Chevron. It produces oil. upstream
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  so up there's two parts of oil the oil industry
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  in oil companies there's upstream which does the exploration and
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  drilling extracts it from the ground and then there's downstream
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  which is actually the refining. So they take the crude, the core
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  product, and they refine it into multiple different things, incidentally. Just
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  to give you an explanation of what it can do, oil can be refined into what's
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  called heavy. If it's heavy crude, which is what's in Venezuela, they can
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  develop heavy crude for feedstock, for jet fuel, and
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  for aeroplane fuel and for plastics, et cetera, it's
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  really good. And bitumen, so asphalt and bitumen, which is a very important
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  part of the construction industry. So all of our roads, asphalt,
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  bitumen, so it comes from heavy crude oil. It's the hardest to refine, but
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  what it does as well, it takes the oil and it refines it into, it can refine
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  it into light crude as well, depending on the, beginnings
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  of what the product looks like and from there it can also develop it into kerosene
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  it can develop it into petrol as we know it like gasoline it
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  can also develop it into gas,
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  natural gas. So there's all these layers of the refining process that
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  it can develop and then you can sell all these products, right? So
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  the thing with Chevron is it produces upstream, so it drills and explores. Explores
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  and drills, I should say. Gets it out, refines it, which is the downstream. It
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  owns that too. And it also transports to markets and distributes it
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  across the globe. So it makes money. It's
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  fully vertically integrated as a oil company, which is
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  what makes it an absolute fortress in the world, right?
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  Inarguably the most important product in the world. And if you don't think oil
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  matters, I have some news for you. If oil didn't
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  exist, we would all pretty much perish and die. Why? Because
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  not only are all the product like this desk, everything you
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  see on my desk has got oil in it. Everything, everything,
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  this oil, people don't realize this. And
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  they're like, oh, oil's bad, really? And the other thing too is it powers
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  all of the machinery for large-scale farming that creates
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  all of our food. So if you don't have oil, bye-bye food. Billions
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  of people starve. Just quickly, if you're ready to take control of your finances but
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  feel stuck on where to start, I have a solution. My
• 10:55
  book, Money Bias Happiness, simplifies investing and
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  wealth building with practical steps to help you achieve financial peace.
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  Get your copy via the link in the show notes and let's get your money working for
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  you. Now back to the episode. You have to understand that Chevron's got
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  a very long history. In fact, Chevron's been around since the 1800s effectively. very
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  long-standing company, very safe, very effective company,
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  which is why Warren Buffett, he's got 7% of
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  his portfolio allocated to Chevron stock and also in oxy. So about
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  11% to 12% of Warren Buffett's Berkshire portfolio, which is worth
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  a bank, the portfolio is about $280 billion. So $30 to
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  $40 billion is allocated to oil. So that's a little bit of a
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  little tip. That's why he sees Chevron as the
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  leader at the moment in the oil industry. So why
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  this matters for the likes of Venezuela, right? So
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  going back to the type of oil that's there, it is crude oil.
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  It's heavy and complex crude. So it requires very specialized refining.
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  So smaller players can't handle it efficiently, right? And so Chevron can,
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  because Chevron has got the ability to pull out heavy crude and refine
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  it. And so what that means for Chevron is if it already knows how to do it, it's
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  already there, they're already on the ground, more or less what's going to happen is they're going to have better
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  margins because there's less cost to extract it straight away. There's lower friction,
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  there's faster monetization. So they're way better positioned than
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  any other oil company to go and extract it and put and sell it and make money.
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  And the other thing too is that they're very, the
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  lower cost you can pull oil out of the ground and refine it and sell
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  it, because there's costs all along the way in that integrated business model.
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  But if you can have the lowest cost to extract it, you
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  literally just, you're untouchable, right? So
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  low cost producers in a commodity driven business, win
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  every single cycle, right? And oil is a commodity, right?
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  Oil, it is, it's a commodity. A barrel's a barrel. Like a barrel of
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  oil now is about 60 US dollars. And so it
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  will fluctuate. It can go up to a hundred, which it was. It can go, I mean, back
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  in 2020 after COVID, it actually went to negative. In fact, they were paying
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  you money to store oil as well. They've given it away. That's the
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  first time I think in recorded history that's happened like that. But with
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  commodity driven businesses, the lowest cost producer always wins. So Chevron's
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  strength, is extremely low breakeven
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  costs. Massive cash flow, even at the lowest oil prices.
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  So as all the juniors are starting to go bankrupt, which
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  they pretty well do, they pretty much go broke at like $50 to
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  $40 a barrel, which is kind of where it's oscillating at the minute. So a lot of them are struggling. They're not
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  even drilling right now. So a lot of the demand for oil is growing. It
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  is. The world needs more oil, especially with the AI boom. It's like this
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  thirst for oil like never seen before. But because the price
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  of oil at a barrel is low, no one's drilling, which means the supply
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  of oil is dwindling. And if you understand what that means, if
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  supply is low and demand is high, we're going to see a massive oil
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  boom. Warren Buffett says that when oil goes back
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  and booms, it goes to the next cycle, which he knows it will. That's why he's positioned there. He said it's
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  not going to go back to $100. He anticipates it's going to
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  go beyond $200 a barrel. There you go.
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  The ability for Chevron to operate, not only in Venezuela, but
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  in general, at a cost that's way below everyone
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  else of its competitors, it's going to survive. And it may even start buying up
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  the juniors that go broke. That's what's effective about that company. So
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  what happens? What does this mean when Venezuelan supply increases, right? Well,
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  firstly, Chevron survives this price pressure that's happening. And
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  that will happen if there's more supply come online, right? High cost
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  competitors don't survive, it wins market share, it consolidates. And
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  that's what makes it an incredible company. But here's the
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  hidden cash flow that nobody really understands and
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  talks about. Chevron already generates massive amounts of
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  free cash flow. In fact, they just did an investor day where Mike Worth,
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  who's the CEO of Chevron, incredible leader, they literally, and
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  you can find this on YouTube as well. It's like sending someone to another channel. If
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  you watch it, they talk about in the next five years, it's going to create substantial amounts
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  of free cash flow, give it back in dividends and share buybacks all to
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  the shareholders, because they don't have to use all this money to
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  drill new wells and explore. That's already
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  been done. All the cash flow has been spent. Now they just get to print money. And
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  if the price of oil doubles from here, they're going to print so much free
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  cash flow. It's going to be crazy. So as Venezuela then
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  reopens, it adds incremental production with that massive new R&D
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  spend for them, because they're already there. The existing infrastructure is pretty much on
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  the ground. It's going to reactivate it. And the cash flow growth, as
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  I said, will happen without balance sheet stress of having to spend any more money.
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  That's the holy grail. That's more cash without more
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  risk. and why this again benefits shareholders directly,
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  guess what? Chevron is so good at distributing
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  wealth to its shareholders. It doesn't waste cash. It's very capitally
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  disciplined. Is that a word, capitally disciplined? The capital priorities
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  are, and they've outlined this in the last presentation
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  to show, only like probably a month and a half ago. They'll grow the dividend. It's
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  already high. It's already almost 5%. In fact, the dividend is probably 4.5% right
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  now as I record this. That's
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  very high, four and a half, it's what you can get at the bank, right? And
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  they're going to grow it. And they've grown that dividend for something like, I
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  think it's off the top of my head, it's like 35 years they've had dividend growth,
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  consecutive yearly dividend growth. Wild, right? That's
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  something like a CAGR of like five or 6%, so more than the rate of inflation. So
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  it's going to get progressively better and better and better. They maintain a fortress
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  balance sheet, so they manage their debt really well. Of course, when they got free cash flow,
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  they'll buy back shares. So it eliminates the shares that are already there and makes your shares even
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  more valuable. And it acquires very high quality assets
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  at a very low cost. So, I mean, it's set to just
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  dominate, which is why Warren Buffett's got such a big position in the company, right? So,
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  more cash from Venezuela, which will happen for them. Higher dividend safety,
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  faster dividend growth, more buybacks and stronger long-term compounding
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  from the underlying shares, right? And this
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  is how oil wealth can turn into shareholder wealth
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  for you, right, as an example. And I think a lot of people mistakenly think
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  that if you're going to get into the oil business, you have to own the actual
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  commodity itself. That's not how I've seen the
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  major investors do it. That's not how I do it. If you ever want to be
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  in the commodity game, it's about owning the company that mines, refines
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  and sells. that particular commodity. That's how Warren Buffett plays the commodity,
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  I shouldn't say plays the commodity market, but positions to make money
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  from the commodity market. And that's what I'm talking about right now in this episode,
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  right? So why is Chevron still at a reasonable price? Why is it
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  still paying a 5% dividend? Why isn't it just exploiting, right? And what happens
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  is the market lumps all the oil companies together. They're
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  like, oh, it's just, they're all the same. And they're not, right? They also
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  obsess over ESG headlines. That's for like environmental safety
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  guidelines. Like it's the environmental impact. They're like, oh
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  my god. One time, Exxon Valdez spilled oil. And it's not
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  great. It sucks. I
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  think you can go overboard with ESG, right? That's what happens. And so they underestimate
• 18:01
  how slow the energy transition actually moves. They
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  miss how, they certainly miss how durable oil demand still
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  is. In fact, it's going up from the AI boom, as I said, how critical heavy
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  crude remains with all the bitumen, all the asphalt required and all the other
• 18:16
  things in feedstock it's needed for. So it's like heavy crude
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  is the last oil that will ever not be needed. And I
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  would anticipate that we'll need it for another 100 years at least. I just
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  don't see it. It's not easily disrupted by
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  renewables. This is not. how advantaged Chevron's
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  position actually and truly is, because a lot of people don't even realize that they're the
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  only oil major that's on the ground in Venezuela. And how policy shifts
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  can be absolute asymmetric winners when you're investing. Okay, so this is
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  all the due diligence that you have to understand when you're investing. This is why most people should
• 18:47
  just buy an index fund and call it a day, because this is what's required. It's
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  so interesting to position yourself in a place where there's not much
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  competition, right? So Chevron's not just another oil company, it's best in
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  class. Yes. The risk everyone needs to acknowledge, though,
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  is this. It's not risk-free, right? Some
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  of the risks include this. The sanctions reversing,
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  okay? Political instability inside Venezuela, like,
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  you know, is it going to be secure for them to be on the ground? And again, the CEO of
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  Exxon said potentially it's not. Execution delays, right? It's
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  probably going to take four to five years to
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  rebuild the infrastructure to a point where they can even extract the oil. So it's going to take time as
• 19:25
  well, yeah? Faster than expected global energy transition. I
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  don't think that matters in this particular scenario. People are thinking about that like,
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  oh, will oil be needed? I don't even think there's a risk, to be honest, especially
• 19:36
  with the heavy crew. I just don't think that's going to be replaced, right? So
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  here's the key distinction. Chevron has the
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  balance sheet. the scale and the diversification to
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  absorb these risks better than almost anyone. All
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  right, so here's the big picture takeaway from this episode. As
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  Trump reopens Venezuela, that's his intention. Very obvious that's going
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  to happen. Oil flow, particularly heavy crude, will increase. The
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  US interests are prioritized. China's pushed away to the side. In
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  fact, the U.S. has said China can still take Venezuelan oil, but they'll be
• 20:09
  buying it off us. What a deal. This is
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  quite funny, too, because people don't realize. They're like, what? The U.S. dollar is not
• 20:16
  backed by anything. I'm like, really?
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  Well, it just secured the largest oil reserves in the world in
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  one day. So the US dollar is backed
• 20:26
  by the world's most powerful military that just takes what they want. So
• 20:29
  don't give me that it's not backed by anything, it's backed by that. How
• 20:33
  else can you create wealth so quickly, right? Imagine what happens
• 20:36
  if they take Greenland. They underestimate the
• 20:39
  U.S. dollar is backed by the U.S. military, right?
• 20:44
  Low-cost integrated majors win, and the one
• 20:47
  that's on the ground right now is Chevron. It sits at the intersection
• 20:51
  of the politics, so it's favored by Trump. It's
• 20:55
  energy security that the US needs. It's very much needed. The infrastructure is
• 20:59
  already there. The cash flow is going to increase already, even without Venezuela. And
• 21:02
  they're really good at giving it back to shareholders. So that's
• 21:05
  why Chevron stands to make more money than almost any other company from
• 21:09
  the Venezuelan reset. All right, so here's my final thought
• 21:13
  on this. The biggest fortunes, just so you know, aren't made by
• 21:16
  predicting headlines. They aren't. They're made by understanding
• 21:20
  a few things. What are the incentives? What's
• 21:25
  the structure? Who has the power? And where's the positioning?
• 21:30
  And if you look at all those things right now, Chevron's positioned exactly where
• 21:34
  the money flows as Venezuela reopens. And
• 21:37
  it even makes money even if it doesn't, right? So there's limited
• 21:41
  downside, massive upside. So if you want more deep dives like this,
• 21:44
  hit the subscribe button. Because most people you know,
• 21:47
  they're not gonna see opportunities like this unless they watch something like our
• 21:51
  channel So if you've enjoyed it hit the sub button share this with someone else and
• 21:54
  of course leave a comment in the comments below I'd love to know what do you
• 21:57
  think about Venezuela? Are you positioned to dominate the oil market? And
• 22:01
  most importantly I'm excited for it, too. I just shared on my stories yesterday in our on
• 22:05
  Instagram, our positions in oil. And so if you're interested in that,
• 22:09
  go follow me on Instagram as well. And I'd love to continue the conversation. Are
• 22:12
  you positioned in oil? What do you think is gonna happen? Leave us a comment. I'll come and
• 22:15
  talk to you then, and I'll see you in the next episode. Thanks for listening to Money Grows on Trees.
• 22:19
  If you enjoyed the episode, leave a five-star review on Apple Podcasts and
• 22:22
  Spotify and subscribe to us on YouTube so you never
• 22:26
  miss an episode. And if you're serious about building wealth, make sure to
• 22:29
  check out the links in the show notes and follow me on all social media
• 22:32
  platforms, Lloyd James Ross for more. See