Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / PGA DFS | Travelers Championship | 6/17/25 | DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process
Transcript
- 0:09Speaker 1: All systems going clear, the lift up? What's up everyone?
- 0:41Speaker 1: Tyler Tamberline here aka TOTEG and Tambo back for another
- 0:44Speaker 1: episode of the PGA Show. Here on the ship at
- 0:46Speaker 1: Nation YouTube station. Got my guy Hoopster here with me
- 0:49Speaker 1: as always, gonna break down all things Travelers Championship. We
- 0:53Speaker 1: have a no cut signature event. Seventy two golfers. Corey
- 0:57Speaker 1: Connors who had the wrist injury last week and had
- 0:59Speaker 1: the WD from the US Open w D today got
- 1:01Speaker 1: Johnny Vegas into the pool. So seventy two golfers gonna
- 1:05Speaker 1: break it all down, Bring up Saber, sim talk through
- 1:07Speaker 1: the roster construction and more. Hoopster, how was your US
- 1:11Speaker 1: Open week? JJ spawn US Open Champion?
- 1:13Speaker 2: Yeah, uh, not as good as yours. You had a
- 1:15Speaker 2: good week. I know you had multiple sweats going. I
- 1:17Speaker 2: think you kind of hit the bare minimum of the
- 1:21Speaker 2: end result. But a win's a win. Green is green
- 1:23Speaker 2: is good, as they say, so you take the win,
- 1:25Speaker 2: you move on. So it's always fun to have sweat
- 1:28Speaker 2: going at the majors. I unfortunately didn't. It was one
- 1:30Speaker 2: of those weeks like I was overweight everyone at the top,
- 1:33Speaker 2: but just had no combinations. I only did. I did
- 1:35Speaker 2: my one fifty pool, just didn't have the right combinations.
- 1:38Speaker 2: Like very I was somehow overweight on spawn. I didn't
- 1:41Speaker 2: even necessarily like the guy, but overweight on him. I
- 1:44Speaker 2: had a bunch of Sam Burns, I had a lot
- 1:47Speaker 2: of the guys at the top. Just not the right combination.
- 1:50Speaker 2: So that's how it goes. Sometimes. I've had, you know,
- 1:53Speaker 2: two or three really solid weeks in a row, so
- 1:56Speaker 2: you know, feeling pretty good about the process and everything,
- 1:58Speaker 2: and just you know, not the right combine. But I mean,
- 2:01Speaker 2: I like that sort of golf man Like I I've
- 2:04Speaker 2: always said this, like if you don't hit the fairway,
- 2:06Speaker 2: there should be some sort of penalty. There should be
- 2:08Speaker 2: something like these events where there's no trees, no water,
- 2:13Speaker 2: you know, short rough, Like if you don't have trees,
- 2:16Speaker 2: you don't have water, you better have really long rough.
- 2:18Speaker 2: There has to be some sort of penalty. And obviously
- 2:21Speaker 2: the US opened a little more extreme in regards to
- 2:24Speaker 2: the penalty, but there should be a penalty, like you
- 2:26Speaker 2: shouldn't be able to just randomly hit it three point
- 2:29Speaker 2: fifty wherever you want, knowing that it doesn't matter where
- 2:33Speaker 2: you're at, because you're gonna have a good lot, like
- 2:35Speaker 2: there should be some sort of penalty. I hope, you know,
- 2:38Speaker 2: maybe we see this more at other courses. Really grow
- 2:40Speaker 2: out the rough a little bit. I doubt that these
- 2:42Speaker 2: guys are A lot of them are Prima Donna's man,
- 2:44Speaker 2: you can tell. Like the Rory stuff, Rory continues to
- 2:46Speaker 2: be a little bitch. Like his comments or guys really
- 2:48Speaker 2: starting to till me. Man, I feel I've earned the
- 2:51Speaker 2: right to avoid the media at this point or whatever is.
- 2:53Speaker 2: His recent statement was like, I just I just can't
- 2:56Speaker 2: with that guy anymore. He's a little bitch and we're
- 2:59Speaker 2: sticking with that. But yeah, us open is fun to watch, man,
- 3:03Speaker 2: It's fun to see these guys struggle because we're not
- 3:05Speaker 2: We're not used to them struggling unless there's like extreme
- 3:08Speaker 2: wind or something like that. It's the only time these
- 3:10Speaker 2: guys struggle, like extreme wind or weather. It's it's cool
- 3:14Speaker 2: to see them struggle. And and you know, good shots
- 3:17Speaker 2: are rewarded, bad shots are heavily penalized. I like seeing
- 3:20Speaker 2: that sort of golf. And yeah, we're back at it
- 3:24Speaker 2: though this week and signature events. I love them. I mean,
- 3:27Speaker 2: I know people hate the no cut format, but it's
- 3:29Speaker 2: only only opportunity outside the majors to get the top
- 3:32Speaker 2: guys in the world playing, and that's kind of what
- 3:33Speaker 2: we got this week. So looking forward to talking through
- 3:36Speaker 2: it today.
- 3:36Speaker 1: Yeah, you love the signature events. I forgot about that.
- 3:38Speaker 1: I thought Jay Monahan is going to be, you know,
- 3:42Speaker 1: coming off the commissioner at the PJ Tour and they
- 3:45Speaker 1: got their new guy from the NFL and all that,
- 3:47Speaker 1: and his first comment is I think they really struck
- 3:50Speaker 1: gold here with these signature events and da da da da.
- 3:52Speaker 1: Yet all there's been a bunch of players that have
- 3:55Speaker 1: been against them, obviously for for many different reasons. But yeah,
- 3:58Speaker 1: we'll see. He's got to, you know, take over the
- 3:59Speaker 1: sh and see how it goes. But it can't be
- 4:01Speaker 1: worse than Jay Moahan, so we'll see.
- 4:03Speaker 2: And they have to imagine that has something to do
- 4:05Speaker 2: with like the live thing as well. This guy play
- 4:08Speaker 2: has a better chance to bring it all together. And
- 4:10Speaker 2: that's my take on it because we need it. I mean,
- 4:12Speaker 2: we need Bryson out there, we need John Raum out
- 4:15Speaker 2: there on a weekly but we need some of these
- 4:16Speaker 2: guys to come back. Like again, that's the reason I
- 4:19Speaker 2: love the signature events because the only opportunity. We get
- 4:22Speaker 2: anything that's not a major or not a signature event,
- 4:24Speaker 2: you're getting a shitty feel. There's no way around it. Oh,
- 4:26Speaker 2: there's a huge edge in these random PGA Tour events
- 4:30Speaker 2: because I'm doing the deep dive and I'm finding these
- 4:32Speaker 2: random scrubs that are gonna break out. No, they're not
- 4:35Speaker 2: like people are telling you, that's bullshit. It's not true, Like,
- 4:37Speaker 2: not true at all. So yeah, give me the give
- 4:40Speaker 2: me the signature events and all that.
- 4:43Speaker 1: Yeah, talking about the upcoming US opens, A lot a
- 4:45Speaker 1: lot of these opens like that. When you see them
- 4:47Speaker 1: play that way, it's it's fun. We have the Open
- 4:49Speaker 1: coming up next month will be the final major of
- 4:52Speaker 1: the year, so there's still a ton of golf left.
- 4:53Speaker 1: We're gonna break this one down. Signature event, big event,
- 4:56Speaker 1: lots of good contests. I feel like the process is
- 4:58Speaker 1: solid to last week with some close calls I had there,
- 5:00Speaker 1: but I definitely feel like it's coming together. Maybe two
- 5:02Speaker 1: hundred K this week in the twenty five dollars, that's
- 5:05Speaker 1: what I'm going for. But just to say this too,
- 5:07Speaker 1: last week, the Scotti price, like we talked about, atrocious,
- 5:10Speaker 1: no problem to make it work. He was up there.
- 5:12Speaker 1: You had Spaw and you had Bert, Like you could
- 5:14Speaker 1: just build the nuts any any way you wanted, and
- 5:17Speaker 1: even though Scotty came what T eighth or something, it
- 5:19Speaker 1: was still ending up on the winning line.
- 5:21Speaker 2: Some of the stupid week for roster construction. I mean,
- 5:23Speaker 2: I think I had texted you. I don't know. I
- 5:25Speaker 2: think we were probably on the phone. We chat a lot.
- 5:27Speaker 2: I think we're on the phone, and I was like, yeah,
- 5:29Speaker 2: I just did my first run at golf and literally
- 5:31Speaker 2: didn't have to make any sacrifices to get exactly what
- 5:34Speaker 2: I wanted in my team. That didn't pan out, but
- 5:36Speaker 2: you could just tell the first run that it was
- 5:39Speaker 2: there wasn't I mean that's saying it wasn't skill involved,
- 5:42Speaker 2: but you could get whatever you wanted. Like I played
- 5:44Speaker 2: sixty percent Scotti. I think sixty maybe sixty five percent Scotty.
- 5:49Speaker 2: I knew I wanted a ton with Scotty. I had
- 5:51Speaker 2: to make zero sacrifices to get a bunch of Scotty.
- 5:53Speaker 2: I was able to play the other top end guys
- 5:55Speaker 2: in there as well. I could tell on the first
- 5:58Speaker 2: build like that this week it would be kind of
- 6:01Speaker 2: like a I guess random type week. It's just easy
- 6:03Speaker 2: to make teams, easy to make fit. You're want to
- 6:06Speaker 2: do Scotty with a big price site, great, please do it,
- 6:08Speaker 2: but do not include the five K range. I'm fully
- 6:10Speaker 2: now I'm anti five K range. I think it's so stupid,
- 6:13Speaker 2: and we talked about it on the shows. A ton
- 6:15Speaker 2: has nothing to do with the five K rage. You
- 6:18Speaker 2: and I have hammered this from day one, and everyone
- 6:20Speaker 2: else in the industry. I hear their comments, but all
- 6:22Speaker 2: the five k's and that's great, let's go. But no,
- 6:24Speaker 2: the five K is not good for anyone because again
- 6:27Speaker 2: we've said it a million times, where the first one
- 6:29Speaker 2: is beating this drum. It's not about the five K rage.
- 6:32Speaker 2: It's about the six K range and the seven K range,
- 6:34Speaker 2: where those guys are all typically one thousand dollars more expensive.
- 6:37Speaker 2: It makes roster construction just way too easy. When there's
- 6:41Speaker 2: a five KR range, it doesn't matter what price you
- 6:43Speaker 2: put on Scotty. At that point. You could make them
- 6:45Speaker 2: fifteen thousand, doesn't matter because all the six K, all
- 6:48Speaker 2: the seven K guys are now six K, all the
- 6:51Speaker 2: eight K guys are now seven K. So I like
- 6:54Speaker 2: the aggressive prices on some of these high end guys,
- 6:57Speaker 2: but you get got to get rid of that five
- 6:58Speaker 2: K range.
- 6:59Speaker 1: Now, this week's smaller field, but it will be interesting
- 7:01Speaker 1: to see because it is thirteen to three Scotty. They
- 7:04Speaker 1: did bring back more nines and eights overall. If you
- 7:06Speaker 1: remember last week, there was nine guys total in there.
- 7:08Speaker 1: This week there's six nine k's alone, and then eight
- 7:12Speaker 1: to nine or something in the in the eight K range,
- 7:14Speaker 1: so you you've got a decent number overall. The seven
- 7:17Speaker 1: k range is a bit smaller and then the six k's.
- 7:19Speaker 1: Obviously it's a smaller field, but you could still easily
- 7:22Speaker 1: fit Scotty the way the pricing went this week, just
- 7:23Speaker 1: because of the field. So we'll look and see what
- 7:26Speaker 1: Saber sim does. Is there anything else that you wanted
- 7:28Speaker 1: to talk about before we hop into anything else you
- 7:29Speaker 1: want to break down here with this event, No cuts,
- 7:32Speaker 1: smaller fields, anything in general marketing, any of that stuff
- 7:35Speaker 1: you want to get into before we start.
- 7:37Speaker 2: Oh, not too much, man, We're gonna have some pretty
- 7:39Speaker 2: big announcements coming up relatively soon. I mean, we got
- 7:42Speaker 2: we got a lot of a lot of things we're
- 7:44Speaker 2: working on behind the scenes, so we're gonna have a
- 7:47Speaker 2: lot of big announcements coming up pretty pretty soon, I'd
- 7:51Speaker 2: say so. I gues it's a little teaser, a little
- 7:53Speaker 2: bit of a teaching, like.
- 7:53Speaker 1: The teaser on the week after. Only the diehards watching live.
- 7:57Speaker 1: Some people will watch it back whatever, But yeah, we're not.
- 8:00Speaker 1: But we always say that we don't take anything lightly.
- 8:02Speaker 1: It's not like the I don't know. We'll see how
- 8:04Speaker 1: it gets perceived, but it's something that nobody else has
- 8:06Speaker 1: ever done, nobody else is doing, and we're working diligently
- 8:09Speaker 1: on it. We're gonna spend about a month still on
- 8:12Speaker 1: this project before we ever even come close to announcing it.
- 8:14Speaker 1: So there's gonna be something big coming up here for
- 8:18Speaker 1: this year, and it's gonna be a lot of fun. Obviously,
- 8:20Speaker 1: NFL just around the corner, but a ton of golf.
- 8:22Speaker 1: Left one note just while Hoop's pulling up sabers in
- 8:24Speaker 1: if you want to grab it up there, Hoop, I'll
- 8:26Speaker 1: leave this while you're getting it ready to share. PGA
- 8:28Speaker 1: seventy five is the code. If you are just sort
- 8:31Speaker 1: of checking things out for the summer, trying to see
- 8:33Speaker 1: how things go, and you're not a member yet, you
- 8:35Speaker 1: can use PGA seventy five on the ninety nine dollars
- 8:39Speaker 1: all access core plan. Go to ship at nation dot
- 8:41Speaker 1: com go to join the Nation. You'll be able to
- 8:43Speaker 1: see the ninety nine dollars plan. Use this code twenty
- 8:46Speaker 1: four dollars for your first month. That gets you discord,
- 8:49Speaker 1: that gets you the education courses, that gets you all
- 8:51Speaker 1: the content, not just for PGA, but for all of
- 8:54Speaker 1: the sports. To see what we're all about. We talk,
- 8:56Speaker 1: we talk about this, put our money where our mouth is.
- 8:58Speaker 1: Twenty four dollars is less than the PGA only, and
- 9:01Speaker 1: this includes the ability to use Saber Score and the
- 9:03Speaker 1: Saber Sim optimizer we're about to bring up there. So
- 9:06Speaker 1: do you have sabersim ready? Who?
- 9:08Speaker 2: Yeah, Booma, let's sure the dry run already available for us. Yeah,
- 9:17Speaker 2: I just changed a couple of I don't.
- 9:19Speaker 1: Know, peg junk. But hey, there's not a single time
- 9:22Speaker 1: we've said this that it wasn't a huge win for
- 9:25Speaker 1: the community. So we don't. We don't just say it
- 9:26Speaker 1: to say it. That's the difference. Every other site is
- 9:28Speaker 1: all we got this big thing, or we're bringing this
- 9:30Speaker 1: person on, or we're doing all these things. Any anytime
- 9:33Speaker 1: we bring on something, you know it's gonna be good.
- 9:36Speaker 1: And that's the key here.
- 9:37Speaker 2: He's on our side. Will trust me. It's big. And
- 9:44Speaker 2: let's say you said it was it was big, I'll
- 9:46Speaker 2: say big and different.
- 9:48Speaker 1: Sick differ might be sick, yeah, tignature event big sick,
- 9:52Speaker 1: could be solid. I'm excited for it. But it's gonna
- 9:55Speaker 1: be good.
- 9:55Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely, Uh yeah, I just had to. You know,
- 9:59Speaker 2: this is Saber projection, Sabers ownership. I'd change a little
- 10:02Speaker 2: bit just to get the run going. So it just
- 10:04Speaker 2: changed shouty from forty seven point five.
- 10:07Speaker 1: It said that's what she It'll be big.
- 10:09Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, big and different, big and different. Yeah, that
- 10:13Speaker 2: is what she said for sure. Uh so at the top,
- 10:17Speaker 2: got scotti. I haven't even looked at how much we
- 10:19Speaker 2: wait wait before we get started, though, I'm messout.
- 10:23Speaker 1: You gotta bring that time.
- 10:25Speaker 2: Gott to bring this puppy over next to the price.
- 10:28Speaker 1: Yeah, there we go. We're looking at ranges. Yeah, I
- 10:33Speaker 1: like this all right. Right out of the gate, we're
- 10:36Speaker 1: getting the sixty six percent you bumped into one fifty
- 10:40Speaker 1: we went off. Do you want to change it to
- 10:41Speaker 1: projected score?
- 10:42Speaker 2: Yeah, let's go to projected score.
- 10:45Speaker 1: Yeah. For those that don't know it runs in two seconds,
- 10:47Speaker 1: but we want to look at that just because a
- 10:48Speaker 1: lot of these dry runs that people are using are
- 10:50Speaker 1: taking sort of what the projections are giving them, and
- 10:53Speaker 1: so this will give us a better idea. And then
- 10:54Speaker 1: you see it when we switch that one hundred percent
- 10:57Speaker 1: Scotty just like and.
- 10:59Speaker 2: The main thing here as you see the big number
- 11:01Speaker 2: basically one hundred and twelve fantasy points for Scotty and
- 11:04Speaker 2: then no one's within essentially twenty five What is that?
- 11:09Speaker 2: That's uh yeah, I guess correction, sorry, fifteen, So fifth
- 11:13Speaker 2: Scotty's fifteen lower. Then it just continues to dwindle. So
- 11:18Speaker 2: it's going to be easy, obviously to just play Scotty
- 11:21Speaker 2: despite a eighteen hundred dollars difference between Scotty and uh
- 11:28Speaker 2: Rory here. So he's one hundred percent. So we'll we'll
- 11:31Speaker 2: change some things here obviously, just to see what else
- 11:34Speaker 2: we can get. I do want to see is there
- 11:37Speaker 2: any like so we're getting sixty percent Davis Thompson. I mean,
- 11:40Speaker 2: we're not probably playing sixty percent Davis Thompson, uh fifty.
- 11:44Speaker 2: So these are the sort of builds that projected score
- 11:47Speaker 2: is gonna like, and you can see them over here,
- 11:49Speaker 2: Scotty with a bunch of essentially seven K guys. Scotty
- 11:54Speaker 2: a couple six K guys. It's going to be just
- 11:56Speaker 2: very aggressive, which you can obviously tell when we sort
- 11:58Speaker 2: if I said, we're getting zero Rory, zero Xander, zero, Morikawa, zero,
- 12:04Speaker 2: can't lay zero lute veg the first name, we're actually
- 12:08Speaker 2: getting some decent on. Yeah, Keegan Bradley at eighty five.
- 12:12Speaker 1: When you're in Connecticut, we're gonna get Keegan. Anything on
- 12:15Speaker 1: the northeastern side is always gonna involve Keegan. But I
- 12:18Speaker 1: will chime in for two seconds because I think this
- 12:20Speaker 1: is an interesting point. A lot of people bring this up,
- 12:22Speaker 1: and obviously our show isn't the picks and the plays
- 12:24Speaker 1: and the tears in the pockets. It's all just kind
- 12:26Speaker 1: of going through and seeing this stuff. But so many
- 12:28Speaker 1: people do a dry run and think, well, don't you
- 12:31Speaker 1: guys say a dry run is literally just that and
- 12:33Speaker 1: you stop. I personally have no problem to Hoop's point
- 12:37Speaker 1: here of saying, Okay, I've checked into it, I've seen
- 12:40Speaker 1: where this lands. Not many people are gonna run one
- 12:43Speaker 1: hundred percent Scottie and sixty percent Davis Thompson. So I
- 12:47Speaker 1: mark that in the back of my mind that very
- 12:49Speaker 1: clearly we're going to see Scotty and Davis Thompson lineups
- 12:52Speaker 1: quite quite common. So you could choose to separate that
- 12:55Speaker 1: yourself if you want to do whatever you want or
- 12:57Speaker 1: limit it. But for me, Hoop, I would definitely be
- 12:59Speaker 1: okay just capping my total ownership even in a dry
- 13:02Speaker 1: run to sixty five percent. It's still going to max
- 13:05Speaker 1: me out Scotty, but it's probably more realistic to what
- 13:08Speaker 1: the public does. And then on someone like Davis Thompson,
- 13:11Speaker 1: when I see that spot check, maybe I go twenty
- 13:13Speaker 1: five or thirty percent because it's not too many people
- 13:16Speaker 1: are going to play sixty percent on one hundred and
- 13:19Speaker 1: fifty line.
- 13:19Speaker 2: Yes, and I've capped Scotti here and just going to
- 13:23Speaker 2: rerun its. I plugged in that sixty five percent number.
- 13:26Speaker 2: I want to rerun it because a large majority of
- 13:28Speaker 2: my pool included all Scotty. So we go through here
- 13:33Speaker 2: and then let's see it should bring down that should
- 13:36Speaker 2: naturally bring down yere So Davis Thompson's now it's only
- 13:38Speaker 2: a twenty team, so it'll be changed one fifty yeah,
- 13:43Speaker 2: down to like forty four. I'd still cap it. I'm
- 13:45Speaker 2: not going to play forty four percent Davis Thompson. So
- 13:47Speaker 2: there's a lot of different ways you can go go
- 13:49Speaker 2: about doing this. I do want to check though and
- 13:52Speaker 2: see saverscore how does this change. This is just based
- 13:56Speaker 2: on projections. Saver score is going to incorporate more game
- 14:01Speaker 2: theory stuff. They're going to incorporate ownership a little bit more.
- 14:05Speaker 2: Let's just see how this changes. When we go to
- 14:07Speaker 2: sabers score, We'll keeping the big thing. Just all the
- 14:10Speaker 2: Scottie down to seat. Now you're starting to see so
- 14:12Speaker 2: Scotty down to forty five percent. Kala, yeah, Davis Thompson down.
- 14:18Speaker 2: So that's the that's the big difference obviously, and then
- 14:20Speaker 2: again we always talk about it. But then you get
- 14:22Speaker 2: to contest sims and it's going to take you to
- 14:24Speaker 2: another level as well. So to me, there's like they say,
- 14:27Speaker 2: there's levels to it, there's levels of sabersim. Projected score
- 14:31Speaker 2: is simply projected score. Any optimizer is going to build
- 14:34Speaker 2: you teams based on projected score. Saberscore starts to take
- 14:39Speaker 2: into consideration some of the other things, and then you
- 14:41Speaker 2: get to the contest sims and you're at it like
- 14:44Speaker 2: a whole nother level essentially, so you can see the
- 14:47Speaker 2: big difference though, I mean a Sabers score starts to
- 14:50Speaker 2: balance things out a little bit. You get twenty five
- 14:53Speaker 2: percent more of kwatt.
- 14:55Speaker 1: For a second now, just so, this is why I
- 14:57Speaker 1: do this, because now see how like Xander, all of
- 14:59Speaker 1: a sudden se een cow up to twenty five, you're
- 15:02Speaker 1: still getting ten lineups each of Can'tlan and Oberg You're
- 15:05Speaker 1: getting Sep Straw at ninety two. All these guys were
- 15:08Speaker 1: essentially nothing before. Now you're getting the different variations. This
- 15:12Speaker 1: is the way Saber does the It's not who you play,
- 15:15Speaker 1: it's how you play them. Yeah, goes and finds this
- 15:17Speaker 1: for you via Saber score to get you some good
- 15:20Speaker 1: lineups with leverage built in, and starts pairing people accordingly
- 15:24Speaker 1: so that you're not landing on the same thing everybody
- 15:26Speaker 1: else is in the same way they are.
- 15:28Speaker 2: Can you explain this because you understand it a little
- 15:32Speaker 2: more than I do. So if right now I got
- 15:34Speaker 2: unique set at one, like if I changed it to two,
- 15:37Speaker 2: what exactly does that do to my lineups?
- 15:39Speaker 1: Well, it's going to make sure you have at least
- 15:40Speaker 1: two different in every line right now, one v ones.
- 15:43Speaker 1: So yeah, just for the sake of doing it, I
- 15:45Speaker 1: don't think you need to when you're doing the drive
- 15:48Speaker 1: run change much just to see it. This will usually
- 15:51Speaker 1: just change some of the exposures a little bit. You
- 15:53Speaker 1: might get a little bit more spread along the bottom
- 15:56Speaker 1: where there's different value plays now that are mixing and
- 15:58Speaker 1: matching versus just putting in the projected one. But that's
- 16:02Speaker 1: why you're seeing the So do this hoop, go back
- 16:04Speaker 1: to projected score for a second. This is the best
- 16:07Speaker 1: way to show it. We can use Davis Thompson as
- 16:08Speaker 1: the premier example. I'm go to one. Are we getting
- 16:11Speaker 1: sixty four percent right now?
- 16:13Speaker 2: Bind cap Scottie at sixty five, so we're still at
- 16:16Speaker 2: forty five percent.
- 16:18Speaker 1: Now change it to two uniques for a second and
- 16:19Speaker 1: apply it, just to see what that happens, just to
- 16:21Speaker 1: see if it changes.
- 16:24Speaker 2: He actually went up.
- 16:25Speaker 1: So yeah, so it didn't really do much. That's what
- 16:27Speaker 1: I was gonna say. It depends, but that's kind of
- 16:29Speaker 1: the thing. I would have thought we'd see a little
- 16:31Speaker 1: bit more spread. We didn't rebuild all the lineups just
- 16:34Speaker 1: to note it. It's it's not going to make a
- 16:36Speaker 1: huge difference. The thing I'm looking more in that is
- 16:38Speaker 1: like I said, is if I'm doing a dry run,
- 16:40Speaker 1: I try and make it realistic. For example, on a
- 16:42Speaker 1: week with a weather wave edge, and people are all
- 16:45Speaker 1: looking at that. Sometimes the projections at certain sites don't
- 16:49Speaker 1: don't adjust for that. Now we're spending time on Wednesday
- 16:52Speaker 1: evening going in and making the adjustments once we have
- 16:54Speaker 1: the final weather at ship a nation. That's the power
- 16:56Speaker 1: of having good, solid projections. But for other sites that
- 17:00Speaker 1: have projections that don't account for that, Hoop and I
- 17:02Speaker 1: have talked about this endless times on showdown slates where
- 17:06Speaker 1: you know can't lay an X. Were the two highest
- 17:08Speaker 1: priced golfers and in round two they're playing in the
- 17:11Speaker 1: afternoon and the edges in the morning. But Site not
- 17:15Speaker 1: to be named decides, let me just run them. Since
- 17:17Speaker 1: you're the highest price with the highest projection, Well, that's
- 17:20Speaker 1: not going to adjust for it, and you're gonna have
- 17:22Speaker 1: those guys in your pool more than the adjustment we're making.
- 17:25Speaker 1: So I will run dry runs off more of what
- 17:27Speaker 1: I think the public is actually doing. So I would
- 17:31Speaker 1: just say that, and in this case it didn't make
- 17:32Speaker 1: a huge change for this example, Hoop, but in general
- 17:36Speaker 1: there is some stuff coming from Sabersim that's gonna be
- 17:38Speaker 1: big on the men unique side of thing as well.
- 17:41Speaker 1: They're working on something behind the scenes, so can't really
- 17:43Speaker 1: know yet, but they do have something coming that we've
- 17:45Speaker 1: been privy to and seen. So I think they're comfortable
- 17:48Speaker 1: with us saying that much. Just like us, Sabersim always
- 17:51Speaker 1: working on stuff behind the scenes. They've got something cool
- 17:54Speaker 1: coming out that they're working on.
- 17:56Speaker 2: I mean, honestly, just it's gonna make it easier for
- 17:58Speaker 2: everyone to understand the process it. So, yeah, this should
- 18:01Speaker 2: be coming up pretty soon.
- 18:03Speaker 1: Yeah, so I think that's a good one to bring up.
- 18:06Speaker 1: And then you know, Jason said, I hope people play
- 18:08Speaker 1: sixty percent Thompson, So yeah, well we'll see how it
- 18:11Speaker 1: actually goes, but I definitely think people are playing Scotty
- 18:14Speaker 1: and Davis Thompson. And do you remember the week a
- 18:16Speaker 1: few weeks back now. We just talked about this today
- 18:19Speaker 1: and one of the discords there about it was like
- 18:21Speaker 1: Matti Schmid Week, and it was like seventy percent of
- 18:24Speaker 1: the lineups that had Matti Schmid, who was like a
- 18:26Speaker 1: value that crushed, had Scotty and Scotty did not crush. Yeah,
- 18:30Speaker 1: and it was like all those Matty Schmid lineups got
- 18:33Speaker 1: wasted versus if you go back to what's our current
- 18:38Speaker 1: ownership on David? Okay, do the plus sign on Davis Thompson. Now,
- 18:42Speaker 1: with where you're at your in saber score, you're down
- 18:44Speaker 1: to eighteen percent. How many of those lineups have Scotty
- 18:47Speaker 1: out of curiosity forty?
- 18:49Speaker 2: Which is pretty reasonable considering we're playing sixty five percent Scotty,
- 18:53Speaker 2: so it's not like a crazy number.
- 18:55Speaker 1: So the nice part about that is is like this
- 18:57Speaker 1: guy's down to what thirty, so he's still solid amount
- 19:01Speaker 1: of lineups where you'd get Davis Thompson without Scotty versus
- 19:04Speaker 1: clearly most of the field is playing him with Scotty.
- 19:07Speaker 2: Here's where I guess that will change quite a bit
- 19:09Speaker 2: and we'll see. I could be wrong, but I think
- 19:11Speaker 2: if we go back to projected score, we're getting a
- 19:14Speaker 2: lot of David Thompson. I'm guessing more Scotty will be
- 19:17Speaker 2: in these teams, let's see. Or to make a fool
- 19:19Speaker 2: out of myself, Yeah, made a fool out of myself.
- 19:21Speaker 2: It's the same with the projected score. I thought it
- 19:25Speaker 2: would be more, but I guess there's probably some logic
- 19:28Speaker 2: behind it that I wasn't thinking about.
- 19:29Speaker 1: Well, they're always they're gonna put somebody else in along
- 19:31Speaker 1: the bottom, They're gonna balance it out. You're not getting
- 19:33Speaker 1: full on, you know, just complete chalk. But it is
- 19:36Speaker 1: a better gauge to look at it. But that's I
- 19:37Speaker 1: wanted to bring it up because typically that's the case
- 19:40Speaker 1: with Saber score. Why I use the Maddi Schmid example
- 19:42Speaker 1: that week in the lottery, even though Maddy Schmid crushed it,
- 19:47Speaker 1: there was so few teams that you Schmid with non
- 19:50Speaker 1: Scotty lineups that nobody had the right. The best Schmid
- 19:53Speaker 1: lineup was like twelfth place and it had Scotty because
- 19:57Speaker 1: that was kind of the point, like, not many people
- 19:58Speaker 1: played it without. So you got to look at stuff
- 20:01Speaker 1: like this in your dry run and not just leave
- 20:03Speaker 1: it to chance. You should be reviewing before and after,
- 20:07Speaker 1: not just you know, after the lineup. You know the
- 20:10Speaker 1: week plays out and you go, oh, how'd I do?
- 20:11Speaker 1: You should know when you're submitting the answers to the
- 20:13Speaker 1: test for your test what they looked like going in
- 20:16Speaker 1: at least, and then see how it plays out from there.
- 20:18Speaker 1: So I like this exercise for that reason. But definitely
- 20:21Speaker 1: when you went to the new settings, you saw that
- 20:23Speaker 1: we incorporated a lot more of the nine K range.
- 20:26Speaker 1: You saw us on other eight K guys, not just
- 20:29Speaker 1: Kegan Bradley, because I think there is value across the
- 20:32Speaker 1: middle here, and there's enough plays down low that you're
- 20:35Speaker 1: able to make, like Scotty with two eight K lineups,
- 20:38Speaker 1: skip the sevens or majority of them, and get down
- 20:41Speaker 1: into the sixes and use some of these guys. And
- 20:43Speaker 1: that's one thing about signature events is you're getting whoever
- 20:47Speaker 1: you want to pick, Nick Taylor, Thomas Detree, Andrew Novac Bez,
- 20:52Speaker 1: who else, Davis Thompson, We looked at Kevin You, Lucas Glover,
- 20:56Speaker 1: Maddie Schmid who I mentioned. There's options people will be
- 21:00Speaker 1: very comfortable with, especially with the aspect of the no cut.
- 21:03Speaker 1: You think you think that's the same, Like, I don't
- 21:05Speaker 1: think itone's gonna be chalky, but I'm saying like there'll
- 21:07Speaker 1: be some that get a boost because of that.
- 21:09Speaker 2: Yeah, I definitely agree with you. I mean, it's let's
- 21:14Speaker 2: pull up. I just want to sort my salary and
- 21:16Speaker 2: just see like and this is Sabersims number, Like who
- 21:19Speaker 2: is there anyone down here that's getting more ownership than
- 21:23Speaker 2: like the group.
- 21:24Speaker 1: And Thompson, you Taylor.
- 21:26Speaker 2: It looks like, yeah, so Thompson's showing eighteen U ten,
- 21:33Speaker 2: Yeah it fits up is eleven, Grazerman nine eight. So
- 21:39Speaker 2: more times than not in these events, like it does
- 21:42Speaker 2: get spread out more than people are thinking. I don't
- 21:45Speaker 2: think this Davis Thompson number is gonna be eighteen percent.
- 21:49Speaker 2: Could be wrong. I just want a lot of times
- 21:52Speaker 2: you can tie it to how well the guy's playing
- 21:54Speaker 2: and you pull it up. He's missed three out of
- 21:56Speaker 2: last four cut. So for me, people are gonna look
- 21:58Speaker 2: at that and say, you know what, man, if this
- 22:00Speaker 2: guy's gonna be popular, I'm fine getting off. And that's
- 22:02Speaker 2: how I'm thinking too. If Davis Thompson's the guy down
- 22:05Speaker 2: here like no, thank you, I'll move on and can
- 22:08Speaker 2: kind of apply that a lot of times. And we
- 22:11Speaker 2: had a disagreement I think a couple of weeks ago
- 22:13Speaker 2: on Camp Young. It doesn't matter how it turned out.
- 22:15Speaker 2: There's different ways to do it. If you have faith
- 22:16Speaker 2: in a guy for sure playing like I liked him,
- 22:19Speaker 2: you didn't, he ended up doing all right? Not you know,
- 22:21Speaker 2: toot my own horn or anything. But he was the most.
- 22:24Speaker 2: But like to me, like, if you're gonna do it,
- 22:27Speaker 2: you gotta have reasoning behind it. If you're just gonna
- 22:29Speaker 2: stick with the crowd. Like to me, if the crowd
- 22:31Speaker 2: is going Davis Thompson, I'm going everyone else around him.
- 22:36Speaker 2: And I'd even take chances on a guy like Max
- 22:38Speaker 2: Homer right there, who I haven't played basically at all
- 22:40Speaker 2: this year. So like a lot of times, you can
- 22:43Speaker 2: apply the logic where, man, if someone cheap is going
- 22:45Speaker 2: to be popular, just go somewhere else. It was Keith Mitchell.
- 22:50Speaker 2: I think it might have been in the Major. I'm
- 22:52Speaker 2: so bad at remembering the events, but he was very
- 22:55Speaker 2: popular down here, and I think he missed the cut
- 22:58Speaker 2: and it was like sixty two hundred somewhere. I can't
- 23:00Speaker 2: remember where it was. But here's the popular guy. I
- 23:03Speaker 2: missed the cut. So if you went away from him there,
- 23:06Speaker 2: like you probably did, did it all right, So anyone
- 23:09Speaker 2: down here is gonna be popular, just you know, find
- 23:11Speaker 2: find someone else unless you really like the guy.
- 23:14Speaker 1: Though you just said the unless you really like him,
- 23:16Speaker 1: because that's funny. The logic you just said is the
- 23:19Speaker 1: exact same logic I had the Cam Young week, I
- 23:22Speaker 1: saw like twenty golfers around him and I was like,
- 23:23Speaker 1: got twenty percent Cam Young? Or I think he ended
- 23:25Speaker 1: up coming in an eighteen percent Like I'll just take
- 23:27Speaker 1: my chances. But to your point, he was playing really well,
- 23:31Speaker 1: he projected well, he fit every build. Sometimes you just
- 23:34Speaker 1: got to ride that. And I did an interview the
- 23:35Speaker 1: other day with our guy Shaloub and he had a
- 23:38Speaker 1: great one one of his rules. This guy came prepared
- 23:40Speaker 1: with rules. I'll share one of them. It was good.
- 23:42Speaker 1: He said, remember, ownership is leverage. And you've done this
- 23:46Speaker 1: for years. You've literally said this for years now, and
- 23:49Speaker 1: it's so key. Everyone sees ownership on a guy and
- 23:52Speaker 1: the immediate thing is to do is just fade. And
- 23:55Speaker 1: maybe with Davis Thompson that's the play. I'm just using
- 23:57Speaker 1: this as an example. I don't think he's gonna get
- 23:58Speaker 1: overly at a hand like you because of some of
- 24:00Speaker 1: the other stuff, but just to use this example. I
- 24:02Speaker 1: love the saying ownership is leverage. If someone's gonna be
- 24:05Speaker 1: twenty percent on Cam Young, you could take forty percent
- 24:08Speaker 1: of them. You love them, you don't care, and you're
- 24:10Speaker 1: gonna get leverage by going overweight. My leverage is I
- 24:13Speaker 1: think it's a bad play, and I'm gonna say, I
- 24:15Speaker 1: like the guys around him, I'm gonna get overweight on
- 24:17Speaker 1: all the guys. I'm gonna get leverage on the guys
- 24:19Speaker 1: around him and have negative percentages. In my leverage column
- 24:23Speaker 1: against Cam Young and Sabersim gives you the math calm.
- 24:26Speaker 1: It does all that work for you with your leverage calumn.
- 24:29Speaker 1: There's a column that says, l ev that's for leverage.
- 24:32Speaker 1: It'll tell you your exposure versus the ownership, and you could
- 24:36Speaker 1: start making some of those calls on how much leverage
- 24:38Speaker 1: do you really want or feel that you need, or
- 24:40Speaker 1: you can just let it run it for you. But
- 24:42Speaker 1: I really like that saying that he brought up, and
- 24:43Speaker 1: I think you just put a great example of it
- 24:45Speaker 1: on this Davis Thompson situation. Could take zero, you could
- 24:48Speaker 1: take twenty, you could take fifty. Like you should be
- 24:51Speaker 1: able to get leverage either way you want it.
- 24:54Speaker 2: Way fully convinced he's gonna be the guy that everyone
- 24:58Speaker 2: goes to here, it could be somebody else might being
- 25:00Speaker 2: might end up being Kevin. You sure don't. I just
- 25:03Speaker 2: don't believe it's going to be the eighteen. I think
- 25:05Speaker 2: it's probably a you know, ten ten to thirteen ish range.
- 25:10Speaker 2: But whoever it is, you can apply this logic to
- 25:13Speaker 2: anyone that ends up getting popular. That's cheaper and I love.
- 25:16Speaker 1: I mean, this is our guy Ryan. He said, no,
- 25:18Speaker 1: I know you're yawn. It's not his favorite event. We
- 25:20Speaker 1: don't got VR in the mix, but he said everyone
- 25:22Speaker 1: has their guy, and that's true. And Whop always mentions that.
- 25:24Speaker 1: I guess for me to rephrase now, because we've been
- 25:27Speaker 1: doing that. I've been saying it wrong for weeks to you,
- 25:29Speaker 1: and you keep, you know, clarifying it, and you're right,
- 25:31Speaker 1: but I want to clarify. I think this week is
- 25:34Speaker 1: a week where the six K roster construction is still
- 25:38Speaker 1: more is not more popular, Like it doesn't have to
- 25:40Speaker 1: mean it's more popular. Saying that it's easier to get
- 25:42Speaker 1: to people will be very comfortable using six K guys
- 25:46Speaker 1: to get s body because it's a no cut, because
- 25:49Speaker 1: it's a signature event and there's real dudes down there.
- 25:52Speaker 1: I don't think any of them get super chalky until
- 25:54Speaker 1: you get to like the Thunderdome or the thirty one
- 25:56Speaker 1: eighty or something like that, where you get inflated, but
- 25:58Speaker 1: these roster constructions involving a six K guy should be
- 26:02Speaker 1: way more popular at this event. It's just it's more likely.
- 26:05Speaker 2: Yes, I agree with you, And that's why we're seeing
- 26:08Speaker 2: the big number on Scotti because you come down here
- 26:10Speaker 2: in the six k range and there's just so many
- 26:12Speaker 2: Even if you don't love the guy like you don't
- 26:14Speaker 2: need to love a six K guy. You got to
- 26:16Speaker 2: just be able to logically make the case for this
- 26:18Speaker 2: person to finish in the top twenty, right, maybe top fifteen,
- 26:22Speaker 2: And there's a lot of guys down here where people
- 26:24Speaker 2: are gonna come down and say, you know what, Yeah,
- 26:26Speaker 2: I feel pretty good with Ran Gerard, who's been playing well.
- 26:31Speaker 2: Andrew Novak has won Bug Caley's playing well, Dtree's playing well.
- 26:36Speaker 2: Grazerman's had success this year, Davis Thompson, Kevin You, Benny
- 26:40Speaker 2: on all the way down at sixty three hundred. Eric
- 26:43Speaker 2: Cole missed a couple of cuts, but prior to that
- 26:46Speaker 2: was playing well. People always love Lucas Glovers. You can
- 26:49Speaker 2: go on and on. High Smith has had success this year.
- 26:52Speaker 2: Brian Campbell showed up in spots, so there's just a
- 26:54Speaker 2: pluthoro our guys down here that people are gonna say, yeah,
- 26:58Speaker 2: you know what, I feel pretty good with them. I'm
- 27:00Speaker 2: gonna play them with Scotty. And that's why Scotty's numbers
- 27:04Speaker 2: it just has to be high. And then you look
- 27:05Speaker 2: at the difference between how well he's playing versus Rory.
- 27:09Speaker 2: Xander hasn't really gotten into the top ten this year.
- 27:12Speaker 2: Marikawa has been like a top twenty guy, and that's
- 27:15Speaker 2: about it. These dudes in the upper nines haven't been great.
- 27:19Speaker 2: So it's gonna be a it's gonna be a high
- 27:21Speaker 2: owned Scotty week. There's just no there's no way around.
- 27:24Speaker 2: I don't know if it's like forty seven that we're
- 27:26Speaker 2: showing here, if it's a little lower, if it's a
- 27:28Speaker 2: little lower, like, I'm loving it because this could for
- 27:31Speaker 2: me personally, it could be a week where I just
- 27:34Speaker 2: I just hit it and move on, Just play it,
- 27:36Speaker 2: lock them in and move on.
- 27:37Speaker 1: Yeah. One thing we again, we don't spend a lot
- 27:39Speaker 1: of time on the ranges, but that Xander spot is
- 27:42Speaker 1: interesting just because Xander and Marikawa the ownership and the
- 27:46Speaker 1: it's projection base. But it's about like two or three points,
- 27:49Speaker 1: but it's enough to lean people in optimizers and in
- 27:52Speaker 1: general into Morikawa. But if you just go off the
- 27:55Speaker 1: last five weeks, Marikawa is twenty third, twenty fiftieth, seventeenth
- 28:01Speaker 1: miscut in this fifty fourth even I'll take out the
- 28:03Speaker 1: miscut because that's the team event. Go to the five events.
- 28:06Speaker 1: Him and Xander played them both together the last six. Actually,
- 28:09Speaker 1: Xander finished eighth and beat his fourteenth, eighteenth, and beat
- 28:13Speaker 1: his fifty fourth, eleventh, beat his seventeenth, twenty eighth, beat
- 28:17Speaker 1: his fiftieth, twenty five, and twenty was about the same,
- 28:21Speaker 1: and then just beat him again twelfth to twenty third.
- 28:23Speaker 1: Last year they both finished thirteenth here and before that,
- 28:27Speaker 1: Xander's got a better history of first nineteenth, twentieth fourteenth.
- 28:30Speaker 1: So interestingly enough, two points on a optimizer and in
- 28:35Speaker 1: projections is separating it. But if you want to just
- 28:38Speaker 1: flip those numbers yourself, you can do that, And to me,
- 28:41Speaker 1: that's an option. If you're not gonna go to Rory
- 28:43Speaker 1: and you want to get it on Scotty, I get that.
- 28:45Speaker 1: But if you want to split something real quick up
- 28:47Speaker 1: top for six hundred bucks, the six hundred bucks exists
- 28:50Speaker 1: everywhere throughout your lineup to get from a Morikawa to
- 28:53Speaker 1: a Xander, and it's a change like that that may
- 28:56Speaker 1: may be the difference maker. We'll see as the week
- 28:58Speaker 1: goes on. But I know projections right now like more
- 29:01Speaker 1: Kawa more than Xander.
- 29:03Speaker 2: I'll tell you. I mean, yeah, we're not, you know,
- 29:06Speaker 2: big into talking picks and plays, but give me Xander
- 29:09Speaker 2: over Mari Kawa all day. Mare Kawa should be like
- 29:15Speaker 2: Price is a top twenty guy, Like I don't know,
- 29:17Speaker 2: Like I just don't I get it. People like him,
- 29:20Speaker 2: people like playing, Like I just don't think he is
- 29:24Speaker 2: the fourth best or the fourth most likely to win
- 29:27Speaker 2: this golf eemn like in he's priced that way, Like
- 29:30Speaker 2: I just don't see it with the dude anymore. And
- 29:33Speaker 2: maybe he busts out of it, but he's like, uh,
- 29:35Speaker 2: he's like a Corey Connors to me, Like you're playing
- 29:38Speaker 2: him to get a top twenty, and at ten two
- 29:40Speaker 2: hundred dollars, I don't want to play a guy to
- 29:42Speaker 2: get a top twenty. I might fade.
- 29:44Speaker 1: Yeah. Sometimes they call Corey Connors w DD, of course,
- 29:47Speaker 1: but sometimes they call Corey Connors the Canadian Morikawa, like
- 29:51Speaker 1: just ball striker flusher. And that was at times when
- 29:53Speaker 1: Colin was struggling with this potter. Their ball striking is
- 29:57Speaker 1: both phenomenal when it's when it's on, but when they
- 29:59Speaker 1: get to a seven foot or you're not sitting there
- 30:01Speaker 1: being like damn, my guy, you're you're not excited that
- 30:03Speaker 1: my guy has a seven footer for bird you think
- 30:05Speaker 1: you are, and then you're like, damn, that's still seven ft.
- 30:07Speaker 1: That's kind of challenging for this guy.
- 30:09Speaker 2: I had to struggle with this is like when when
- 30:11Speaker 2: is the last time you've needed Colin Moricala in PGA
- 30:15Speaker 2: dfs and they listen, there's it's a high variant sport.
- 30:18Speaker 2: It could this could be the week that you need them.
- 30:20Speaker 2: I'm not saying it's not. It could be if you
- 30:21Speaker 2: like them playing, but like I'm just looking and it's
- 30:24Speaker 2: like one time this year you've needed them at the
- 30:27Speaker 2: Arnold Palmer Like I don't know, I'm just I don't know.
- 30:32Speaker 2: I don't see it with the dude anymore. To be
- 30:33Speaker 2: honest with you, so decided.
- 30:36Speaker 1: For three months since you even had to.
- 30:38Speaker 2: Consider, Yeah, yeah, and he's gonna be owned. He's definitely
- 30:41Speaker 2: gonna get ownership.
- 30:42Speaker 1: Where Scotty still beats all the guys around him like
- 30:45Speaker 1: a t eight from Scotty and he's still good, or
- 30:47Speaker 1: the way the place gets up, you still need Scotty.
- 30:49Speaker 1: And it's fine, you know, no need him because the
- 30:51Speaker 1: optimals forty five K. But because the optal is forty
- 30:54Speaker 1: five K, you've got Scotty still showing up on winners more.
- 30:57Speaker 1: How often, it's not often that he's been showing up,
- 31:00Speaker 1: so it's certainly possible he doesn't again. And that's just
- 31:02Speaker 1: a note. But I thought there still might.
- 31:05Speaker 2: I mean, with all that being said, it still might
- 31:07Speaker 2: play some more cow. I'm not saying I'm gonna gonna
- 31:10Speaker 2: fade him. I'm considering it, but I when I go
- 31:12Speaker 2: and build teams, I want to see, like, is do
- 31:15Speaker 2: I need to sacrifice Scotty teams to get in Marikao?
- 31:19Speaker 2: And if that's the case, I probably won't play him.
- 31:21Speaker 2: But if I can comfortably play him, I might. But
- 31:23Speaker 2: I'm just not seeing it with him lately. I'm really not.
- 31:26Speaker 1: You just got to think about it when you're building,
- 31:27Speaker 1: like that's kind of thing if he's your main building block,
- 31:29Speaker 1: it's like, man, that's kind of tricky because you really
- 31:31Speaker 1: need something else to go right for it to be
- 31:32Speaker 1: the case. And guys like Xander Rory Scott. He can't
- 31:36Speaker 1: lay over all those guys to fail around him in
- 31:38Speaker 1: a sense, depending on how that build looks. But in general,
- 31:40Speaker 1: there is builds that it's gonna show, even that one
- 31:44Speaker 1: you got up on the screen right now. It's got Morikawa,
- 31:46Speaker 1: but you have Sabstraka, who's the guy that likes most
- 31:50Speaker 1: at the in the nine K range. It's got JJ
- 31:52Speaker 1: Spahng coming off the US Open win. It's got Sewu
- 31:55Speaker 1: Mab Michael Kim like it doesn't seem horrible, but there's
- 31:58Speaker 1: other guys that will be able to bolster up calling Morico,
- 32:02Speaker 1: And I think that's kind of the thought process. My
- 32:03Speaker 1: take is that's why I don't like committing to it,
- 32:05Speaker 1: because and people are like, oh, you said he was
- 32:07Speaker 1: a piece of shit, and then you play it. I
- 32:09Speaker 1: don't even want to commit to that. I'm just saying
- 32:11Speaker 1: a single entry thought or a just general thought that
- 32:14Speaker 1: I don't think enough people apply when they're looking at
- 32:16Speaker 1: this stuff. They just let the optimizer do it and say, well,
- 32:19Speaker 1: I thought I thought the projections were good, Like you
- 32:22Speaker 1: can still make your own spin on it. You are
- 32:24Speaker 1: who can easily go there right now and change Zander
- 32:28Speaker 1: to say ninety five point four to three and drop
- 32:31Speaker 1: calling more cow to ninety two point whatever, and make
- 32:35Speaker 1: that two point switch and give give and take from
- 32:37Speaker 1: exactly where he wants to give it and stay accurate
- 32:40Speaker 1: like you can do that. That's the whole point. It's
- 32:42Speaker 1: your money, you're investing it to play, you're trying to win.
- 32:46Speaker 1: You have the ability to move things around, so make
- 32:48Speaker 1: sure you're doing that if you're in there. So who else?
- 32:52Speaker 1: Who are some of the guys? I guess we'll do
- 32:53Speaker 1: some of the the tier by tier stuff today just
- 32:56Speaker 1: because I don't think we have too much else.
- 32:57Speaker 2: To show there.
- 32:58Speaker 1: There's there's obviously different lineup patterns you can see, but
- 33:01Speaker 1: like we said, it's quite quite easy for people to
- 33:03Speaker 1: get those six K guys into their lineup and it
- 33:05Speaker 1: just means more Scotty. So it's probably is better to
- 33:08Speaker 1: continue this. You mentioned Rory, it sounds like you're out
- 33:11Speaker 1: on him completely just because of you know, but what
- 33:14Speaker 1: what do you think.
- 33:16Speaker 2: Tough man? It's like it hasn't been there and golf
- 33:20Speaker 2: is clearly a mental mental game, and something obviously has
- 33:24Speaker 2: changed since he won the Masters, Like he's just not
- 33:28Speaker 2: the same player. I mean, if you're a statistics person,
- 33:31Speaker 2: there's a lot of stats you can point to that's like, Man,
- 33:33Speaker 2: after the Masters win, this is falling off a cliff.
- 33:36Speaker 2: This has falling off a cliff mentally, some of the
- 33:39Speaker 2: comments like if you're a Rory person, I get it, Like,
- 33:42Speaker 2: you know, he obviously has the ability to turn it
- 33:44Speaker 2: on and go out there and win this event, but
- 33:47Speaker 2: a lot of things, in my eyes would have to
- 33:49Speaker 2: change for that to happen. So I prefer Xander up
- 33:54Speaker 2: here and even Morikaw who I just shit on. So
- 33:57Speaker 2: for me, it's clearly like Scotty Heavy and Xander don't
- 34:02Speaker 2: really love you know, Rory or Morikawa nine K range, Like,
- 34:06Speaker 2: I just really like the dudes at the I'll take
- 34:08Speaker 2: the chances on the guys at the bottom of the
- 34:10Speaker 2: nine k range over the guys at the top. Patrick Cantlay,
- 34:13Speaker 2: I don't know, man, It's like kind of the same
- 34:15Speaker 2: thing as I just mentioned with Morikawa. When is the
- 34:19Speaker 2: last time you've needed Patrick Cantlay? And maybe it's been
- 34:22Speaker 2: one time this year and he's ninety eight hundred. If
- 34:25Speaker 2: you play him this week, you need him to be there,
- 34:28Speaker 2: you know, especially at No Cut event. He's gonna have
- 34:30Speaker 2: to be somewhere in the mix probably come Sunday, and
- 34:34Speaker 2: I just have zero confidence that he can be that guy.
- 34:38Speaker 2: Ludwig kind of same thing all over the place with
- 34:41Speaker 2: the results. You know, missed the cut last week. You're
- 34:46Speaker 2: playing him here, you have to have an idea or
- 34:50Speaker 2: a thought that you think the guy can win. I
- 34:52Speaker 2: don't know if that's the case. I'll take my chances
- 34:54Speaker 2: with like JT, who's been a disaster, but he's cheaper.
- 34:57Speaker 2: Stepstrak has been phenomenal, kind of been riding the Sam
- 35:01Speaker 2: Burns train, and I know he's in contention and kind
- 35:03Speaker 2: of fell apart a little bit at the US Open.
- 35:06Speaker 2: But it's not like he just shot out of nowhere
- 35:08Speaker 2: and played well last week. His game is trended and
- 35:10Speaker 2: he is one guy for sure. He is one guy
- 35:12Speaker 2: for sure that you know we follow the stuff on
- 35:15Speaker 2: a weekly basis. Like he gets hot and he gets cold,
- 35:19Speaker 2: and when he's cold, you definitely don't want to play him.
- 35:21Speaker 2: When he's hot, you do want to play him because
- 35:23Speaker 2: he goes boom boom boom. And if you think this
- 35:26Speaker 2: is the week he completely falls off, because he kind
- 35:28Speaker 2: of melted down a little bit at the US Open,
- 35:30Speaker 2: then don't play him, but I'm gonna stay on him
- 35:33Speaker 2: for sure this week. And then a guy I've played
- 35:36Speaker 2: like none of at all this year is Victor Hoflin.
- 35:38Speaker 2: I'd just rather take my chances on these low nine
- 35:41Speaker 2: K guys, specifically Straka, Burns and Hovelind over the guys
- 35:44Speaker 2: at the top. I will play some JT, though. I
- 35:46Speaker 2: mean I feel like with the JT stuff, and I
- 35:48Speaker 2: say this a lot with various guys. But if you've
- 35:51Speaker 2: been on him, you've been playing with him, I think
- 35:52Speaker 2: you just stick with it. The price is down, you
- 35:55Speaker 2: know this, This is not a driver heavy course. He
- 35:59Speaker 2: sucks with his right now, maybe clubs down and find
- 36:02Speaker 2: some success this week. He's obviously sucking with a lot
- 36:04Speaker 2: of different things. But you know, I'd be fine take
- 36:07Speaker 2: my chances on him. So like the lower nines than
- 36:10Speaker 2: the uppers.
- 36:11Speaker 1: Yeah. The thing about so I guess I'll go to
- 36:13Speaker 1: Cantlay first because easier is like, Yeah, it's been tricky.
- 36:16Speaker 1: Even the week that he had his big week and
- 36:18Speaker 1: finished fourth Straka one and JT was second, Like the
- 36:22Speaker 1: guys right around him still beat him, and this week
- 36:24Speaker 1: they're around him again. The you know his twelfth place,
- 36:27Speaker 1: his thirteenth place. JT won the week he came thirteenth,
- 36:30Speaker 1: similar price point the week he came twelve. Stroka came third.
- 36:33Speaker 1: So the guys that he's paired around have been the
- 36:35Speaker 1: guys that got him anyway, and this week they're cheaper
- 36:38Speaker 1: than him. But Kantle has played well at this course fifth, four, thirteen,
- 36:41Speaker 1: thirteenth to eleven. He just crushes this course. But again,
- 36:44Speaker 1: is that good enough for that price tag at ninety
- 36:46Speaker 1: eight hundred? That's the question. You know what you're sacrificing
- 36:49Speaker 1: to get to him. The JT thing I'm always fine with.
- 36:51Speaker 1: I like the boombust of him. It's win second or
- 36:55Speaker 1: like fifty six or thirty six. Yeah, you'll know pretty
- 36:57Speaker 1: quick probably, But at least I've taken a shot and
- 36:59Speaker 1: the guy that he's in it has the upside to
- 37:01Speaker 1: close it out, get up top, figure out his way
- 37:04Speaker 1: to be involved in a ninety three hundred. I think
- 37:06Speaker 1: that's possible. Straka has boombust as well, but it's the
- 37:10Speaker 1: Burns call for me. It's like what you said, Like,
- 37:12Speaker 1: first of all, everybody was imploding at that point except
- 37:16Speaker 1: jj' spawn, and even like the spawn shot at the
- 37:18Speaker 1: end he got the perfect read from the hovelin shot.
- 37:20Speaker 1: But Spawn played great after he didn't. Spawn shot forty
- 37:24Speaker 1: on the front nine out in forty and goes on
- 37:26Speaker 1: to win. It was anybody's game at one point. I
- 37:29Speaker 1: think there was nine guys or eight guys tied it
- 37:31Speaker 1: at one over, like everybody was there. And Burns did
- 37:34Speaker 1: get screwed like everybody, even the brock. Everyone looked at it.
- 37:37Speaker 1: He had two rulings. He had to hit it out
- 37:39Speaker 1: of that. He let that get in his head. But
- 37:41Speaker 1: Adam Scott said the whole thing was unplayable at the end.
- 37:43Speaker 1: Look at those shots from Scott and Hat and it
- 37:45Speaker 1: wasn't just the guys left on the court. It wasn't
- 37:47Speaker 1: just those guys, It was almost everybody left on the course.
- 37:50Speaker 1: So Burns has been hot, like you said, seventh, second, twelve, nineteenth, fifth, thirtyeth, thirteenth,
- 37:57Speaker 1: all those are good results. Keep riding them if you want,
- 38:00Speaker 1: like that's that's what I'd be doing, because if you're
- 38:02Speaker 1: playing them, why not just get back. But I'd rather
- 38:04Speaker 1: continue with him at now you one hundred and take
- 38:06Speaker 1: a shot that way. So the nines are appealing. I
- 38:11Speaker 1: think if you're going against Scotty, you got to load
- 38:14Speaker 1: up with these nines. A different build gets you there,
- 38:16Speaker 1: and that you end up getting a week like it
- 38:20Speaker 1: actually was a week Scotty wasn't there, of course, but
- 38:22Speaker 1: the week that Sep won. Sep came first, JT came second,
- 38:27Speaker 1: can't Ley came fourth, and everybody up top sucked. Rory
- 38:31Speaker 1: came seventh, but it was no Scotty, but there was
- 38:33Speaker 1: still Rory, Xander, Kawa, Ludwig. All those guys failed, and
- 38:37Speaker 1: you needed that sort of mid range build that that
- 38:39Speaker 1: would be the way that you could get after it
- 38:41Speaker 1: here and load up on some of these guys in
- 38:42Speaker 1: the nines or even the upper eights. I think that's
- 38:44Speaker 1: kind of how I would look at it.
- 38:46Speaker 2: But then you know people always ask this question. It
- 38:48Speaker 2: was somewhere in there. I can't find it, but you
- 38:51Speaker 2: know about balance builds, and I typically shit on him,
- 38:54Speaker 2: and I have shipped on him recently. But I do
- 38:56Speaker 2: think it's I think it's somewhat viable this week if
- 38:58Speaker 2: you're not going Scotty. Yeah, there it is, like, if
- 39:02Speaker 2: you're not going Scotty, I think it's viable because you know,
- 39:05Speaker 2: I'm not loving Rory Morikawa I don't love, and then
- 39:10Speaker 2: Xander I do like a little bit, but he's he's
- 39:13Speaker 2: got to turn it on like he's had decent results
- 39:15Speaker 2: but nothing phenomenal. So I'd be fine starting JT. Burns.
- 39:21Speaker 2: You know, ninety three ninety one and you can hit
- 39:24Speaker 2: the eight k range for a bunch. I'd be fine
- 39:26Speaker 2: with it this week. I typically don't like it, but
- 39:28Speaker 2: this week I'm good with it. If you go JT. Burns,
- 39:30Speaker 2: it's just a random example still at seventy nine hundred
- 39:33Speaker 2: for four spots. You can load up if you like.
- 39:37Speaker 2: You know, we'll get to this range in a minute.
- 39:38Speaker 2: But if you like Ben Griffin, play one dude, play
- 39:42Speaker 2: Daniel Berger, then you're back in the eight k's again,
- 39:44Speaker 2: so you can really load up. And I do think
- 39:46Speaker 2: it is more viable this week than it's been in
- 39:48Speaker 2: a while.
- 39:49Speaker 1: Yeah, I will say this. You know another thing about it, too, Hoop,
- 39:53Speaker 1: is the size of the field and the guys down low. Well,
- 39:56Speaker 1: like you know, I was talking about the Yatzie Scheffler week,
- 39:58Speaker 1: so you can just click him and plug him in.
- 40:00Speaker 1: There's only so many guys down Like I said, people
- 40:02Speaker 1: feel very comfortable with it. But there's you do. The
- 40:04Speaker 1: other way it works is when Scotty doesn't win, he
- 40:07Speaker 1: just has a good week, but all the guys down
- 40:10Speaker 1: low sort of bust up. And when you need, like
- 40:12Speaker 1: when let's say three or four of the guys from
- 40:14Speaker 1: the sevens and eights are needed or would fit something
- 40:18Speaker 1: that is needed, well, then those mediocre or like you know,
- 40:21Speaker 1: top eight, top seven, top five results with a winner
- 40:24Speaker 1: from the nine, those can still work without Scotty and
- 40:27Speaker 1: still get there because you're not working with a full field,
- 40:29Speaker 1: a cut, all these other factors that can still make
- 40:32Speaker 1: those Scotty lineups turn good. In the end, you can
- 40:34Speaker 1: lose that pretty quickly if some of those guys down
- 40:36Speaker 1: load do bad and somebody beat Scotty plus the other
- 40:39Speaker 1: guys up the middle are what's needed. I know it
- 40:41Speaker 1: sounds like a lot of things, but it's really not.
- 40:43Speaker 1: In a seventy two man field, it's really not. Especially
- 40:46Speaker 1: if these eights and sevens come through and there is
- 40:49Speaker 1: three six there's nine guys just in the eight case
- 40:52Speaker 1: alone this week, and another twenty to twenty five in
- 40:55Speaker 1: the seven case, so we're talking about a pool of
- 40:57Speaker 1: thirty five to forty golfers between the and the Nines
- 41:01Speaker 1: this week out of seventy two, that's a large portion
- 41:04Speaker 1: of the field that's not Scotty, and some of them
- 41:06Speaker 1: fit with Scotty, So I get that. But just in general,
- 41:09Speaker 1: to echo what you were saying in the question asked,
- 41:10Speaker 1: I definitely think some of those lineups can get there
- 41:12Speaker 1: this week more so than some of the other weeks,
- 41:16Speaker 1: which is surprising to some. But it's just the way
- 41:17Speaker 1: the pricing and the event shake out. So I got
- 41:20Speaker 1: to know what you're playing.
- 41:21Speaker 2: Yeah, ak range, it's kind of similar to the Nines
- 41:24Speaker 2: for me, where I just prefer the lower range. I'm
- 41:26Speaker 2: not saying I'm fading Fleetwood or Henley. If I can
- 41:29Speaker 2: get him in, I'll get him in. JJ Spont at
- 41:31Speaker 2: eighty six hundred, I think is funny. Like I'm not
- 41:34Speaker 2: someone that says, oh, he won a major last week,
- 41:36Speaker 2: you have to fade him this week. But like at
- 41:37Speaker 2: eighty six hundred in a signature event, like, I think
- 41:40Speaker 2: it's easy for me to pass on them. I don't
- 41:42Speaker 2: care what the ownership is, none of that matters to me.
- 41:44Speaker 2: It's the price eighty six hundred for JJ Spont. I'll
- 41:47Speaker 2: give a shit what he did last week like win, lose,
- 41:51Speaker 2: miss cut, Like I don't think I could get there ever,
- 41:54Speaker 2: so that that will probably be a fade for me
- 41:56Speaker 2: for sure. But Keegan McIntyre, Lowry Man, Jordan Speth at
- 42:02Speaker 2: eighty two hundred, I'm not a speif guy. I think
- 42:05Speaker 2: he has a chance this week to win the event.
- 42:06Speaker 2: I love speed at eighty two. Ben Griffin has been
- 42:09Speaker 2: maybe like one of the best golfers and the PGA
- 42:12Speaker 2: Tour recently. Eighty one hundred, like one of those situations. Again,
- 42:17Speaker 2: I'm saying it again, and I think it's a lot.
- 42:19Speaker 2: It's always applicable. But if you've been playing Ben Griffin,
- 42:22Speaker 2: why the hell would you get off the train at
- 42:24Speaker 2: this point? Continue to ride it? He's uh, the averaged
- 42:29Speaker 2: what is it? Eighty one hundred, so like the average
- 42:31Speaker 2: cost of a salary spot this week average middle of
- 42:33Speaker 2: the past, Like right there, I'm in Maziama, like it
- 42:38Speaker 2: is a dude, just like falling off a cliff, Like
- 42:40Speaker 2: it's just it has not been there at all. So
- 42:45Speaker 2: Lowry Speef, Griffin, you know, I love those guys here.
- 42:49Speaker 1: Yeah, outside of the plays, I think it's more of
- 42:51Speaker 1: like the roster construction for me, like the things you
- 42:54Speaker 1: the cases you made for even two or three guys there.
- 42:58Speaker 1: That's what I'm trying to say, Like you could there's
- 43:00Speaker 1: gonna be Scotty lineups with Scotty Speithe Griffin. You could
- 43:03Speaker 1: play that for example, no problem whatsoever. And if Speth
- 43:06Speaker 1: and Griffin might be the guys that get it done
- 43:08Speaker 1: and Scotty does a his T four thing or his
- 43:10Speaker 1: T five thing, could still be pretty good based on
- 43:13Speaker 1: what the other stuff is and what you got in
- 43:15Speaker 1: your lineup. So I think this range is gonna get
- 43:18Speaker 1: spread out because everyone will make a case for their
- 43:20Speaker 1: own guy. But I think there's lots of options here
- 43:23Speaker 1: that you could plug in with some different constructions. What
- 43:25Speaker 1: if it is Xander up Top or JT or Burns
- 43:29Speaker 1: like we mentioned, but then you need some of these
- 43:31Speaker 1: eight K guys. So this eight K range definitely has options.
- 43:34Speaker 1: And the more you can stay in here, not to
- 43:37Speaker 1: say it's right, just to note the more you can
- 43:39Speaker 1: avoid some of the land mines that will probably find
- 43:42Speaker 1: in this larger seven K range where it's guys like
- 43:46Speaker 1: see Wu, Cam Young, Harris, English, who else, Mav all
- 43:51Speaker 1: these favorites that people always love Rye Mav Burger, Akshay,
- 43:55Speaker 1: Jason Day, you name it. Like, people always find a
- 43:57Speaker 1: way to play these guys. Harmon and his course history,
- 43:59Speaker 1: like all these different things will will be a thing.
- 44:03Speaker 1: So I definitely think staying in this sort of upper sevens.
- 44:06Speaker 1: Outside of maybe Cam Young, who's probably gonna pick up
- 44:09Speaker 1: Steel again, you can continue to play him too. I'm
- 44:11Speaker 1: just saying he'd be the one that probably doesn't get much.
- 44:13Speaker 1: He's the one that gets the ownership versus the guys
- 44:15Speaker 1: around and probably won't. But that eight K range mixed
- 44:18Speaker 1: with this upper seven k range, including the cover boy
- 44:22Speaker 1: for today, Sung JM. Maybe seventy nine hundred dollars for
- 44:26Speaker 1: Sung Jay. He was good till he wasn't. Last week.
- 44:28Speaker 1: Everyone was texting me, hope you stayed on your boy.
- 44:31Speaker 1: He's like, buddy, it's round one of the USO shot
- 44:35Speaker 1: plus sixteen after that or something.
- 44:37Speaker 2: It was horrible. Yeah, yeah, it was rough after that.
- 44:39Speaker 2: But I will be planning this week. I think it's
- 44:41Speaker 2: actually a good setup for him, So I mean on him,
- 44:45Speaker 2: you know, Cam Cam Young, Like, I'm gonna say it again.
- 44:49Speaker 2: I know I've said it a lot. Don't mean to
- 44:50Speaker 2: be super repetitive, but I just again, think it's applicable
- 44:53Speaker 2: in a lot of cases. If you've been playing Cam Young,
- 44:56Speaker 2: keep playing Cam Young. He it appears that he's found
- 45:00Speaker 2: on something at some point. And another solid performance last week,
- 45:04Speaker 2: fourth at the US Open composed playing solid golf. I
- 45:09Speaker 2: mean he's made six cuts in a row, three top tens.
- 45:15Speaker 2: You know, made the cut at the PGA Championship. These
- 45:17Speaker 2: are difficulty duns. The memorial made the cut that might
- 45:21Speaker 2: have been a no cutting bemp, but finished twenty fifth
- 45:23Speaker 2: there playing really good golf. And he was, you know,
- 45:27Speaker 2: up until like a year ago, one of the more
- 45:29Speaker 2: promising up and comers. So I'm gonna I'm staying on
- 45:32Speaker 2: him for sure. Adam Scott's name, I think you know
- 45:36Speaker 2: he was. He was right there last week. I think
- 45:38Speaker 2: this course actually sets up well for him. McNeely Berger.
- 45:41Speaker 2: But Tia, like, I really like JT posting here at
- 45:44Speaker 2: seventy three hundred, and I will admit I'm a JT
- 45:46Speaker 2: posting guy, So it's a little bit of a bias,
- 45:49Speaker 2: There's no doubt about it. But I think this is
- 45:50Speaker 2: a really good setup for him. Uh, Like you said,
- 45:53Speaker 2: the Brian Harming course history, if you're a believer in
- 45:56Speaker 2: that stuff. Seventy two hundred. I mean, you're not really
- 45:58Speaker 2: sacrificing much to play Ryan Harman at seventy two. You
- 46:01Speaker 2: can easily throw them in your playerpool. If you're playing
- 46:04Speaker 2: a bunch one other interesting name in the setup here,
- 46:09Speaker 2: it probably isn't good for his game. But Ryan Fox
- 46:12Speaker 2: has been playing really really well at seven k flat.
- 46:15Speaker 2: We've seen him play good on tracks that don't necessarily
- 46:18Speaker 2: set up well for him. But man, he's been phenomenal
- 46:21Speaker 2: his last five events. Nineteenth, win, twentieth at the Memorial,
- 46:26Speaker 2: twenty eighth at the PGA Championship, won that bullshit Myrtle
- 46:29Speaker 2: Beach event. So I'm good with him. Jason Day at
- 46:34Speaker 2: seven K, like, I'll definitely played j Day at j
- 46:38Speaker 2: Day at seven K, I'm in. I'm in seven k yeah,
- 46:42Speaker 2: and I'm that for sure. So there's a lot of
- 46:44Speaker 2: guys who are a lot of pivots. I mean, is
- 46:45Speaker 2: anyone looking popular. Let's see Aaron rye Berger might be
- 46:49Speaker 2: getting some.
- 46:52Speaker 1: So ry was just price and like it's best.
- 46:55Speaker 2: One just loves his ass every week.
- 46:57Speaker 1: It's gotta be just owgr like his rank. But you
- 47:00Speaker 1: know that's what it is is ranking versus his price.
- 47:03Speaker 1: You look at it because if not, he's never played
- 47:06Speaker 1: well here thirty third miscut miscut nineteenth, twenty third, eighteenth
- 47:10Speaker 1: in a team event thirty eighth, twenty seventh miscut. This
- 47:13Speaker 1: is Cam Young though from a couple of weeks ago.
- 47:15Speaker 1: But Cam Young actually at least had something showing coming in.
- 47:18Speaker 1: But it's just a price and a ranking of player
- 47:20Speaker 1: that they're saying this guy, so he's gonna be super popular.
- 47:24Speaker 1: I think in high stakes at seventy five hundred, him
- 47:27Speaker 1: and Burger both could be. I don't know how it
- 47:28Speaker 1: gets split, but those two should get a little boost
- 47:31Speaker 1: just based off of that. I think there's guys like
- 47:34Speaker 1: you know, the guy's at the top that we talked about,
- 47:36Speaker 1: my guy Sung Jay, JT. Postin who you mentioned. I
- 47:39Speaker 1: think taking a shot on guys like Min Wu. Who's
- 47:42Speaker 1: the other guy that I was gonna say, Oh, Luke
- 47:44Speaker 1: Clanton another guy right there with JT. Poston, just below
- 47:46Speaker 1: the other popular guys. He's always a guy that I
- 47:49Speaker 1: like too. So there's there's some interesting names in the sevens.
- 47:52Speaker 1: But that's how you get different. You can play Scotty
- 47:54Speaker 1: with a bunch of these guys. At low ownership as
- 47:56Speaker 1: opposed to Scotty with all the popular guys and things
- 47:59Speaker 1: like that. But I definitely think that. And there's some
- 48:02Speaker 1: interesting pairings this week. I want to comment on this
- 48:04Speaker 1: because somebody brought it up earlier. So going back, JJ
- 48:07Speaker 1: Spawn is playing with Scheffler for the first two rounds.
- 48:11Speaker 1: Who cares like that? One's whatever, it's like the you know,
- 48:14Speaker 1: this guy just beats Schefler. He's on top of the
- 48:15Speaker 1: moon right now. You know, he doesn't give a shit.
- 48:17Speaker 1: But there is some other ones there is ry McElroy
- 48:21Speaker 1: is playing with Keegan Bradley, the Ryder Cup pair off
- 48:25Speaker 1: of like, you know, Keegan's obviously the coach now wants
- 48:27Speaker 1: to be on the team, but he's gonna have a
- 48:28Speaker 1: lot to prove. So if you think Rory doesn't give
- 48:31Speaker 1: a shit, that may be bet on Keegan versus Rory,
- 48:34Speaker 1: because Keegan in Connecticut.
- 48:36Speaker 2: Like when you give sports betting tips.
- 48:38Speaker 1: And they're usually wrong, but it's just my top hate
- 48:42Speaker 1: them if they want. I just think that's another interesting one.
- 48:44Speaker 1: I saw. Who else is there this week? It's uh,
- 48:48Speaker 1: you know, I forget all of them. But the other
- 48:49Speaker 1: one that's that's interesting is the the Battle of the
- 48:52Speaker 1: BC's and we're going to the six K range now anyway,
- 48:55Speaker 1: But someone earlier mentioned is it Bud Cauley week. Bud
- 48:58Speaker 1: Cauley has to defend the BC initials versus Brian Campbell
- 49:04Speaker 1: in rounds one and two, So Bud Colly versus Brian
- 49:07Speaker 1: Campbell is a big battle hoop to start this thing off.
- 49:10Speaker 1: What do you like here in the six K range?
- 49:12Speaker 1: Because I see Gerard Novak, Nick Taylor, your Canadian boy,
- 49:17Speaker 1: Davis Thompson, Kevin you who we talked about these guys
- 49:20Speaker 1: popping off the page a little bit early in projections.
- 49:23Speaker 1: What's your thoughts on this range?
- 49:24Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I'm I mean, no secret, I'm probably
- 49:27Speaker 2: playing a shit ton of Scotti this week, so like,
- 49:29Speaker 2: I have to play a lot of guys down here,
- 49:32Speaker 2: and luckily for me, there's a lot of guys that
- 49:34Speaker 2: like down here, and I'm fine. I mean, I'm fine
- 49:38Speaker 2: with a lot of them. I'm not gonna say like
- 49:39Speaker 2: this guy's my favorite. I'll be honest. I'm just gonna
- 49:42Speaker 2: be spreading out a lot of these guys down here.
- 49:43Speaker 2: That's how I'm gonna do it. I'm gonna probably be
- 49:45Speaker 2: overweight on a majority of it. It's just how it
- 49:47Speaker 2: works with roster construction. I'm playing a lot of Scotty.
- 49:50Speaker 2: I have to play a lot of guys down here,
- 49:51Speaker 2: and I have to be overweight on a lot of guys.
- 49:54Speaker 2: And I'm just gonna play, play, play what I need
- 49:58Speaker 2: to play, and I'm good. I'm gonna rattle off the
- 50:01Speaker 2: guys that I look at and say I'm good playing,
- 50:03Speaker 2: and it's gonna be a majority of them fits Grazor Mean,
- 50:06Speaker 2: Nick Taylor, Hogi d Trie, Wyndham Clark is one that
- 50:10Speaker 2: man that that's that could be a tough plick at
- 50:12Speaker 2: this point, what did he really? Is he the one
- 50:14Speaker 2: that messed up that locker room too? Is that legit?
- 50:16Speaker 1: Yeah, he messed up. It showed he messed up the
- 50:18Speaker 1: locker beside him on the left, beside him on the right,
- 50:20Speaker 1: but not his.
- 50:20Speaker 2: Own is what is he so mad about? Like, I mean,
- 50:23Speaker 2: it's not like he's been playing good golf and came
- 50:25Speaker 2: in and shipped the bet. He's been playing terrible golf.
- 50:27Speaker 1: Yeah, just mad that it's never coming back around again.
- 50:29Speaker 1: It's been whorey. You know, it was a miscut after
- 50:32Speaker 1: just horrible results recently, he had a ninth here last year. Hoop.
- 50:35Speaker 1: I don't know if that's so on your mind, but
- 50:37Speaker 1: he's been really bad for the short term.
- 50:39Speaker 2: Yeah, Cally Novak, Gerard Kim If Sam Stevens I like
- 50:44Speaker 2: quite a bit. I've been playing Sam Stevens. The results
- 50:46Speaker 2: have been solid for Stevens. Yeah, I mean you look
- 50:51Speaker 2: at I mean, he's been really good. It looks like
- 50:54Speaker 2: Devin straight made cuts a lot of top thirty results,
- 50:59Speaker 2: like take that all day at sixty six hundred Noorin.
- 51:04Speaker 2: We already talked about the Davis Thompson the thing. If
- 51:06Speaker 2: it's him that's getting the ownership down here, there's a
- 51:08Speaker 2: lot of different ways to go. I probably would still
- 51:10Speaker 2: play him, but not gonna try to get overweight by
- 51:13Speaker 2: any means you. Gary Woodland, Eric Cole. Lucas Glover is
- 51:19Speaker 2: the one guy people always love playing Lucas Glover and
- 51:22Speaker 2: unless something changed recently, he has been bad. Yeah, it
- 51:27Speaker 2: hasn't been good.
- 51:29Speaker 1: Yeah, is down here. There's no one that you can
- 51:32Speaker 1: really make a case for. And that's I mean, you
- 51:34Speaker 1: can make case for anybody I would say that's doing
- 51:35Speaker 1: content and shows and people. You'll go around the industry,
- 51:38Speaker 1: everyone will have their reasons, but I could go poke
- 51:40Speaker 1: holes in all the good reasons anyone there poking holes in.
- 51:44Speaker 1: I could give good reasons for it too. You can
- 51:46Speaker 1: go back and look it up and find stats or
- 51:47Speaker 1: make cases for it. But realistically, what most people look
- 51:51Speaker 1: at is recent form course history, and then projections, and
- 51:55Speaker 1: in this case, it's only projections guiding everything because not
- 51:58Speaker 1: much I mean outside of maybe Kevin you who people
- 52:00Speaker 1: can make a case for Matty Schmid. At least these
- 52:03Speaker 1: guys have shown some upside in some events, but now
- 52:06Speaker 1: it's a signature event with a better field and all
- 52:08Speaker 1: this other stuff. So if anybody's chalked down here, you
- 52:11Speaker 1: could almost make the reason to move on to somebody
- 52:13Speaker 1: else next to them, because there's not that much of
- 52:15Speaker 1: a difference between them in reality.
- 52:17Speaker 2: And that's the main point. So you monitor ownership, you know,
- 52:20Speaker 2: make make your Unless you love some they've already covered it.
- 52:22Speaker 2: Unless you absolutely love the guy that's gonna be you know,
- 52:25Speaker 2: owned down here, yeah stick with it. But if you
- 52:27Speaker 2: don't absolutely love them, a lot of different ways to go.
- 52:29Speaker 2: I mean, I'll be you know, I've been pretty clear,
- 52:31Speaker 2: I'm gona spread it out. Play a lot of these guys,
- 52:32Speaker 2: I'm gonna spread it out.
- 52:33Speaker 1: Yeah, that's what I'm gonna do as well. It's gonna
- 52:35Speaker 1: be more of a roster construction. That is the actual
- 52:37Speaker 1: pick or the play down here, it's like, what do
- 52:39Speaker 1: you need for your lineup? You can even apply that
- 52:41Speaker 1: if you play single entry and you get your first
- 52:43Speaker 1: four in that you love and you're comparing two v. Twos. Well,
- 52:45Speaker 1: if you've already got all guys that are heavily owned,
- 52:48Speaker 1: you may want to look for some leverage options. Or
- 52:49Speaker 1: if you're already in a zone that's pretty popular or
- 52:52Speaker 1: a popular construction, you may have to move off that.
- 52:54Speaker 1: If you can't move off Scotti and find a build
- 52:56Speaker 1: that's different, maybe you could find a different way. But uh,
- 53:00Speaker 1: you know, this is a good one that comes up.
- 53:01Speaker 1: Jason says, I usually have about thirty golfers. I don't know, Jason,
- 53:04Speaker 1: how many lineups you play. Maybe you could throw that
- 53:06Speaker 1: in there. But on a week to week basis, how
- 53:07Speaker 1: do you guys construct winning lineups with fifty plus golfers.
- 53:10Speaker 1: Golf is one of the sports where I'm more than
- 53:13Speaker 1: I'm more likely to leave the one offs that it
- 53:15Speaker 1: gives me, Meaning if it gives me like four percent
- 53:17Speaker 1: of a guy or five percent. I used to change that,
- 53:20Speaker 1: but I'm way more okay with it now because especially
- 53:23Speaker 1: with Sabersim. Again, to each their own, but we recommend Sabersim.
- 53:26Speaker 1: When you're using Saberscore or contest sims or whatever it
- 53:29Speaker 1: is you're using to build your lineups, it's usually putting
- 53:32Speaker 1: that golfer in for a roster construction reason, or for
- 53:35Speaker 1: a leverage reason, or for something else. So when you
- 53:38Speaker 1: just change them all to your more popular golfer, just
- 53:40Speaker 1: so you can say you had a smaller pool, that
- 53:43Speaker 1: could be the difference maker in your lineup that ends up,
- 53:46Speaker 1: you know, from the top versus the bottom based on
- 53:48Speaker 1: that one change that you made. So you got to
- 53:50Speaker 1: start trusting it a little bit more. But leverage pieces are.
- 53:53Speaker 2: There, great response and exactly where I'm at. I mean,
- 53:56Speaker 2: I used to try to narrow it down as much
- 53:58Speaker 2: as possible in my playerpool, and I've reversed course on that.
- 54:03Speaker 2: I've had success recently, just again trusting our partner Sabersim.
- 54:08Speaker 2: You know, yes, there's guys I like, I'm gonna make
- 54:11Speaker 2: sure I'm gonna get those guys over. Guys I don't like,
- 54:13Speaker 2: you know that that are cheap. But I'm not gonna
- 54:15Speaker 2: exclude guys that I don't necessarily love just for the
- 54:19Speaker 2: sake of excluding them. There's a reason why they're probably
- 54:21Speaker 2: showing up in those lineups in terms of you know,
- 54:26Speaker 2: Saber score contests and roster construction. There's a reason these
- 54:30Speaker 2: guys are showing up, and I just kind of trusted
- 54:32Speaker 2: a little bit. Yeah, and I'm gonna include my takes
- 54:34Speaker 2: for sure, Like if I really like I'm gonna pull
- 54:38Speaker 2: up just two random names. If I really like Eric
- 54:41Speaker 2: Cole but I'm getting I'll use this. If I really
- 54:44Speaker 2: like Gary Woodland, and I'm getting a ton of Benny Benny,
- 54:47Speaker 2: and I'm gonna switch that around and make sure I
- 54:48Speaker 2: get more Woodland. I'm gonna make sure I get more
- 54:51Speaker 2: of the guy I trust. But I'm not gonna just
- 54:54Speaker 2: exclude someone and X them out just for the sake
- 54:56Speaker 2: of narrowing down my player. But you know, reverse course
- 54:59Speaker 2: on that maybe I don't know, maybe like a year ago,
- 55:02Speaker 2: and really it's probably lined up with the time that
- 55:04Speaker 2: we maybe six months ago was when we switched over
- 55:07Speaker 2: to Saber.
- 55:08Speaker 1: Yeah, Saber was definitely I'm more of an eye opener
- 55:10Speaker 1: for it for sure, And I think that's a key
- 55:12Speaker 1: and bonum that not many people really that they literally
- 55:14Speaker 1: are a bit like Saberscore contest sims. Even if you
- 55:17Speaker 1: only have the Core package, you can still get Saberscore
- 55:19Speaker 1: with us and try it out for twenty four dollars.
- 55:21Speaker 1: But that's the example where Saberscore will literally build the
- 55:25Speaker 1: version of what you want in your head once you
- 55:27Speaker 1: get your pool set up of it's not who you play,
- 55:29Speaker 1: it's how you play them. It takes that thinking out
- 55:32Speaker 1: of it and gets that in there for you so
- 55:34Speaker 1: that you can kind of have those builds where you're like, oh,
- 55:36Speaker 1: I wasn't even thinking about that guy, but they thought
- 55:38Speaker 1: about that guy. And again, because ninety percent of the
- 55:41Speaker 1: DFS world is so focused on like good play, bad play,
- 55:45Speaker 1: when they dial in and focus on DFS, which is
- 55:48Speaker 1: what we talk about on the show, and actually winning
- 55:50Speaker 1: a tournament, the plays are the end result, but it's
- 55:53Speaker 1: the process going in and that's how you built the lineup.
- 55:56Speaker 1: That's what we're talking about with this. It's letting golfers
- 55:58Speaker 1: slide in that you may not have picked, but it's
- 56:01Speaker 1: using them because they're doing something for your lineup that's
- 56:04Speaker 1: putting you in a position to be better going in
- 56:07Speaker 1: and hopefully better coming out long term. You gotta let
- 56:10Speaker 1: it play out. But that that's the focus, and that's
- 56:12Speaker 1: what the the idea is there.
- 56:14Speaker 2: So yeah, I do think you can extend your player
- 56:16Speaker 2: pool more so in these no cut Eventually. I see
- 56:19Speaker 2: it all the time. I mean you've played these for years.
- 56:22Speaker 2: I've played them for years. You see a guy that's
- 56:24Speaker 2: pretty dead for round one and two and then finds
- 56:26Speaker 2: a little bit of something round three and then just
- 56:28Speaker 2: goes off round four, and you need him to win
- 56:32Speaker 2: the event, and you can't predict that stuff. I mean,
- 56:34Speaker 2: you can't predict it. You know, these are high variant situations.
- 56:38Speaker 2: I mean pgad I has high variants. I can't predict
- 56:41Speaker 2: if a guy's gonna suck for two rounds then find
- 56:43Speaker 2: something round three, then just go off round four, and
- 56:46Speaker 2: then you need them in a GPP. So yeah, I
- 56:48Speaker 2: wanted to extend a little bit in these no cuts.
- 56:51Speaker 1: Yeah, for sure. And don't count your money the day up, like, yeah,
- 56:54Speaker 1: you know round one's over and you're winning money that
- 56:56Speaker 1: could all be far left by the time Sunday and
- 56:59Speaker 1: you could be far left on Friday when the round
- 57:02Speaker 1: starts off for round two, and then by Sunday you
- 57:04Speaker 1: can be crushing it again. So yeah, and music who
- 57:08Speaker 1: mentioned earlier that you just click whoever and then piece
- 57:10Speaker 1: you know you're good. I don't think that's the case.
- 57:13Speaker 1: I mean it feels like it, because that's a lot
- 57:14Speaker 1: of people are focused on who they pick and who
- 57:16Speaker 1: they click. If you will, but it's exactly what we're
- 57:19Speaker 1: talking about when you're building lineups, to put yourself in
- 57:21Speaker 1: a position to give your yourself opportunity to go in strong,
- 57:25Speaker 1: especially when you can actually maneuver it against the field
- 57:28Speaker 1: you're playing against. In a sport like PGA, where we
- 57:31Speaker 1: have good ownership and solid feel for what the field
- 57:35Speaker 1: is doing, there's a lot that you can do. And
- 57:37Speaker 1: we just talked about this. If you're throwing away a
- 57:39Speaker 1: bunch more darts just to have the you know, your
- 57:41Speaker 1: certain pool, just know what that means. Obviously, you're taking
- 57:45Speaker 1: a higher risk versus reward. When your pool does well
- 57:48Speaker 1: and you've got fifteen of those twenty golfers that crush it,
- 57:51Speaker 1: you probably do have some sort of combination that's really
- 57:53Speaker 1: solid and putting you in a lot of different positions
- 57:56Speaker 1: up top. But what we're saying, especially in the lotteries
- 57:59Speaker 1: and these hide all you know, these top heavy tournaments,
- 58:01Speaker 1: Like you know I was sweating last week in the
- 58:03Speaker 1: five dollar. It's like Victor Perez at some small percentage
- 58:07Speaker 1: and X me those guys, I wasn't talking about them
- 58:10Speaker 1: all week. I know Victor Perez is. I followed them
- 58:13Speaker 1: for years on the euro Tour, all these different factors
- 58:15Speaker 1: and DP World Tour, et Center, whatever you're gonna call
- 58:16Speaker 1: the real name of it. But I'm saying, like, you
- 58:18Speaker 1: follow these golfers and you know who they are, but
- 58:21Speaker 1: Saber sim is putting them into your lineup as a
- 58:24Speaker 1: It's a means to an end. It's to give you
- 58:26Speaker 1: what you're kind of looking to play against. And I'm
- 58:28Speaker 1: telling it, I'm playing against a very large field of
- 58:32Speaker 1: entries with a super top heavy prize pool. Put me
- 58:35Speaker 1: in the best position possible to take this down. And
- 58:38Speaker 1: that's where it's putting in it. It's not a click
- 58:40Speaker 1: of a button like everybody thinks. So don't just go
- 58:42Speaker 1: sign up and click it. But that's why we have
- 58:45Speaker 1: PGA seventy five. That's why you can go try out
- 58:48Speaker 1: Saberscore for twenty four dollars for a whole month, you'll
- 58:51Speaker 1: get four events that you'll get to try out, four
- 58:53Speaker 1: or five events, depending on how you shake it out.
- 58:55Speaker 1: For golf, you'll have the Travelers, the Rocket Classic, the
- 58:59Speaker 1: John Deere, the Genesis, and you might get the Open
- 59:02Speaker 1: right now? Am I right? Seven forty Yeah, you'll get
- 59:04Speaker 1: the Open right now if you sign up for a
- 59:06Speaker 1: month for twenty four dollars to leave include the Open,
- 59:09Speaker 1: which is another major, but that's just for golf. This
- 59:11Speaker 1: is all access what I'm saying. When you see what
- 59:13Speaker 1: Saberskim does and saber Score does for your lineups, that's
- 59:17Speaker 1: where you can get a better feel and we have
- 59:18Speaker 1: the ability to upgrade and pro rate at any time.
- 59:21Speaker 1: You can change your plan, but our our focus is
- 59:23Speaker 1: always the most affordable content at the most valuable price
- 59:26Speaker 1: that will let you see it.
- 59:27Speaker 2: Can I throw out the first teaser?
- 59:30Speaker 1: What is it?
- 59:32Speaker 2: You might want to make sure you get in before
- 59:34Speaker 2: NFL season starts.
- 59:36Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean that's gonna be a given, but they'll
- 59:39Speaker 1: that one will get hammered at the time, So definitely
- 59:41Speaker 1: can throw that out there. It's gonna be a key
- 59:43Speaker 1: to get in. I think now the thing is I
- 59:44Speaker 1: tell everybody because we know that everybody talks about it.
- 59:47Speaker 1: It's you know, not everyone watching this is playing golf,
- 59:49Speaker 1: so it's worth checking us out. But if you're good,
- 59:51Speaker 1: you want to get acclimated, get involved in the community.
- 59:53Speaker 1: Discord is so under the know how underrated that is.
- 59:57Speaker 1: That's the place you want to be is in the discord,
- 59:59Speaker 1: getting all the extra tid and people talking about getting better.
- 1:00:02Speaker 1: It's access to everybody, not about getting access to us.
- 1:00:05Speaker 1: It's about getting access to a community of like minded
- 1:00:08Speaker 1: individuals that are trying to get better at DFS and
- 1:00:10Speaker 1: focus solely on winning tournaments the process and not just
- 1:00:14Speaker 1: winning the lottery. It's winning different styles of tournaments. How
- 1:00:18Speaker 1: do we win it? Showdown, how do we win it?
- 1:00:19Speaker 1: That's just golf. Now you take it across all sports.
- 1:00:22Speaker 1: This is the time to get in, learn acclimate, educate
- 1:00:26Speaker 1: over the summer and then you'll definitely want to get
- 1:00:28Speaker 1: in before NFL. But that'll just you'll know where you
- 1:00:30Speaker 1: want to be when NFL comes back out and take
- 1:00:32Speaker 1: all the courses leading up. We're gonna have some more
- 1:00:34Speaker 1: bonuses along the way, but yeah, get it in, check
- 1:00:36Speaker 1: it out it's twenty four bucks. No one's selling you
- 1:00:38Speaker 1: it's twenty four bucks, Like it's literally nothing to try
- 1:00:41Speaker 1: it out. But that's the whole point to see what
- 1:00:44Speaker 1: we're executing on when we do these videos. It's so
- 1:00:47Speaker 1: much better when you can do it yourself and start
- 1:00:49Speaker 1: playing around with it and then have a community that
- 1:00:51Speaker 1: you can go to and say, hey, guys, I got
- 1:00:53Speaker 1: caught up with this, I landed here. What do you
- 1:00:56Speaker 1: suggest Boom, you go right back to it. You're gonna
- 1:00:58Speaker 1: learn so much faster when you do that and get better.
- 1:01:02Speaker 1: That takes off tons of time of your actual learning process,
- 1:01:06Speaker 1: which in DFS because it involves putting up your real
- 1:01:09Speaker 1: harder money. That saves you money. Time is money. We
- 1:01:12Speaker 1: always talk about it. Less is more. That's an example
- 1:01:15Speaker 1: where you can actually save time and money because you'll
- 1:01:18Speaker 1: get better faster and nobody can guarantee you winners will
- 1:01:22Speaker 1: be picked winners. Good for you. We would all love
- 1:01:24Speaker 1: to pick winners, and we'd all win every week. We
- 1:01:26Speaker 1: put you in the best position possible to be able
- 1:01:28Speaker 1: to pick, to be able to win consistently, and have
- 1:01:31Speaker 1: an actual process that can put you in the position
- 1:01:33Speaker 1: to win because nobody can guarantee you that you're going
- 1:01:36Speaker 1: to win Hoop. Any final thoughts before we get out
- 1:01:38Speaker 1: of here.
- 1:01:38Speaker 2: You nailed it. I don't even want to go on
- 1:01:40Speaker 2: top of what you just said because it was a
- 1:01:41Speaker 2: perfect outro.
- 1:01:44Speaker 1: All right, guys, good luck this week. I think it's
- 1:01:45Speaker 1: gonna be a great event. It's a signature event. Great field,
- 1:01:48Speaker 1: no cut, ton of strategy, a ton of fun. We'll
- 1:01:50Speaker 1: have all our content up over at the site. We
- 1:01:52Speaker 1: get a lot more coming along the way if you
- 1:01:54Speaker 1: want to get in check it out now. That's going
- 1:01:56Speaker 1: to do it for this one, guys, for Whop, for
- 1:01:57Speaker 1: myself to teg and tambo led Chipp