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Episode 76 - 7/15/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:19
Hello and welcome to episode 76 of the all Systems Go sports
0:25
betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:28
I'm your host Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
0:35
Happy Monday. A new week begins and it is a
0:38
very weird, interesting, rare day in the sports betting
0:42
calendar because we do not have a ton of sweats today.
0:45
There's no Major League Baseball, although there is the
0:48
Home Run Derby tonight. I do have a bet on the Home Run
0:50
Derby, and I'm going to tell you why.
0:52
You should just kind of forget about who's going to win.
0:55
And again, maybe you pick the winner and you might cash, but
0:57
I'm going to look toward a prop bet because it's hard to pick
0:59
the winner and you could have a better opportunity to cash a
1:01
prop bet, which if we can cash that during the All Star break
1:05
would be it would be great to add to our bankroll.
1:07
But then also no WNBA today. So I woke up today and I said,
1:11
hey, what am I going to talk about on today's All Systems Go
1:14
Sports Betting Pod episode 76? And I said, you know what, let's
1:18
talk a little bit of football as well.
1:19
So we're going to talk obviously the Home Run Derby and I do a
1:22
prop bet for you, but we're also going to get into our futures
1:26
card here for the NFL because I wrote about for today for
1:29
visen.com, some NFL wind totals and looking at wind totals from
1:33
a bet splits perspective the same way we look at, you know,
1:37
UFC biting, which by the way, kind of a bad beat over the
1:40
weekend with Al Hassan, our guy. Did you guys see what happened?
1:43
He came out guns blazing and was able to jump all over Brundage,
1:48
but unfortunately he hit him in the back of the head and they
1:51
kind of stopped the fight and they said, Brundage, do you want
1:53
to continue or not? So Brundage said he can't
1:56
continue. And what happened was it was
1:58
ruled a no contest. So at first I'm like, this is,
2:00
you know, this stinks. Al Hassan, who you guys
2:03
remember, we were worried about a little bit of his lack of
2:06
youth advantage and didn't have the height, but had a great bet
2:08
split in a line move and actually beat the closing line
2:10
because I got 160 -, 165. I think he closed -175 -, 180.
2:16
But I'm like, OK, this stinks. He he dished out all the
2:19
punishment had Brundage on the ropes and they called about a no
2:22
contest. But I was actually watching
2:25
because they were almost going to call it a DQA
2:27
disqualification because if you hit the guy intentionally in the
2:30
back of the head, it's a DQ and you lose and he wins by
2:33
disqualification. You're the opponent does So on
2:36
the one hand I'm like, oh, this thinks we couldn't get the win,
2:37
but then I'm also like, oh, at least we didn't get a loss and
2:40
again ended up being a no contest.
2:42
So we're still undefeated. We can look at it in a positive
2:44
way. Glass half half full, not half
2:46
empty. We're still undefeated in our
2:48
last, I believe 6 UFC belts. So either way, wanted to address
2:52
Al Hassan, but and mention that because we're going to use the
2:55
same blueprint that we do for UFC to attack some NFL win
2:58
totals bets, dollars, line movement, juice movement,
3:02
banking on teams that are stable and are returning a lot of
3:05
starters and betting against teams who have new coaches, new
3:08
quarterbacks and have a lot of turnover.
3:09
So if today was the day where you said, what the hell am I
3:12
going to bet on? Well, you're going to bet on the
3:13
Derby with me. And then if you want to place a
3:15
futures bet, we're going to talk some NFL because before you know
3:18
it, guys, football's right around the corner to me.
3:20
When you get to the All Star break, it's like the dead, you
3:23
know, middle dead part of the summer.
3:25
But then once the All Star breaks over football's right
3:27
around the corners. Training camps open in a couple
3:30
weeks and then we're going to pre season games and before you
3:32
know, it'll be week 1. So I don't think it's a bad time
3:35
to talk some NFL win totals and have hopefully put a good could
3:39
put a few good bets into our into our account so we can root
3:43
for them and have a rooting interest all season long.
3:45
Now looking back to yesterday, last day of the MLB calendar
3:49
before the break, hope you guys had some winners cuz I wrote
3:51
about the sharp report I tweeted out at Josh under score
3:54
insights. A three and O with the Red Sox,
3:57
the Rays and the G men. G men had a 2 nothing lead, blew
4:00
it in the 9th and came back in the bottom of the ninth and Yaz
4:02
had a triple and a throwing error able to win that game
4:05
three to two. So maybe you had a good end to
4:07
your first half of the MLB season.
4:09
But anyway, guys, let's dive right in and we're going to talk
4:11
about first our sweat for tonight.
4:13
I'm going to tell you why you should maybe bypass the winner
4:16
of the of the Home Run Derby and get down on a prop.
4:19
And then we're going to finish up with some NFL win totals.
4:22
So talking about the Home Run Derby for tonight, a lot to get
4:26
to. And I want to kind of explain to
4:28
you guys the way I look at the Home Run Derby because I might
4:30
look at it a little bit differently than other people.
4:32
You know, Home Run Derby. Obviously, it's really the only
4:35
thing to bet on. So it's a bit of a public event.
4:37
Of course, if you didn't know, the Home Run Derby tank will be
4:40
at Globe Life Field, which is in Arlington, TX, home of the
4:43
Rangers. But I think when you get to the
4:45
Home Run Derby, everyone focuses on who's going to win the thing.
4:48
So going into it right now, Pete Alonzo, who I believe is making
4:52
his fifth straight Home Run Derby appearance, and he's won
4:55
two of them. He's your favorite, plus 320.
4:57
Marcelo Zuna plus 425, he's tied with Henderson and Bobby Witt.
5:02
All three of them are 425. Then Adolis Garcia, the hometown
5:06
guy, +600 to Oscar Hernandez plus 1100, Jose Ramirez plus
5:10
1400 and Alec Bone plus 1800. So obvious bet here would be
5:15
say, hey, take Alonzo, he's got the experience, he's done it
5:17
before. But then you get all these other
5:19
guys bunched up pretty close. It's not like we have one
5:22
somebody at -120 and everyone else is, you know, plus 500.
5:25
So between Alonzo Ozuna, Wit, Henderson, I mean, you can kind
5:29
of take a pick here. So the way I look at it is, even
5:32
though the vast majority of betters tonight are just going
5:34
to bet on who's going to win it, to me, it's difficult.
5:38
For many years I'll pick a winner.
5:39
I rarely ever won. I think I only won one of them.
5:42
It was the Josh Hamilton year. But I feel like I don't have
5:45
much success picking the winner. But I feel like I've had some
5:48
good success over the last few years focusing on a specific
5:51
prop bet. So I'm going to liken this
5:53
little bit to golf. And by the way, shout out to
5:55
Rhythm, who powers this pod and does a great job with their AI
5:58
caddy as well as their projections, which help you win
6:02
your bets not only hole to hole with the caddy, but one thing
6:05
they're really good at is predicting and recommending top
6:07
five, top ten and top 20s. So when you're betting golf
6:11
again, a lot of people just want to bet who's going to who's
6:13
going to win it. But among eight participants in
6:16
the Derby tonight, among, you know, dozens and dozens in a PGA
6:19
Tour, it's hard to predict the winner.
6:21
So instead of taking a long shot hoping I win on the winner, I'm
6:25
looking toward the prop market. So the prop market that I'm
6:28
going to focus on here for tonight is going to be the total
6:31
number of home runs. Now, what I noticed here is
6:35
first thing I did was I looked at the movement because to me
6:38
you always start off with what is the market telling you?
6:41
The market is an efficient market.
6:43
It's constantly moving and changing, and it's moving and
6:45
changing based on smart money coming in, causing the odds
6:48
makers to adjust. So the first thing I noticed was
6:51
total home runs. Now I woke up this morning and
6:54
you had total home runs at a couple different books I looked
6:57
at. And here's one thing you got to
6:58
know. If you're going to bet the Derby
6:59
tonight, whether it's the winner, whether it's the
7:02
finalists, whether it's over, under homers, whatever it's
7:05
going to be, you got to shop around because I'm going to give
7:07
you an example here where three different books have three
7:09
vastly different numbers. And if it lands right in that
7:12
vicinity, you know, you could, you could win or lose depending
7:15
on getting the the best number or not.
7:18
So the best number is huge. And not all books have the same
7:20
numbers for the Home Run Derby, but that's kind of a microcosm
7:23
for all of betting because sometimes they have different
7:25
numbers regardless of the event. But anyway, first thing I look
7:28
at is what's the movement here? So I woke up this morning, total
7:32
number of home runs, I saw it one book, 267 1/2.
7:36
And again, this is the total combined home runs of all the
7:39
players tonight, all the contestants.
7:41
So woke up at 1, woke up this morning, one book had 267 1/2.
7:45
Now I see one book at 269 1/2. I see another book at 270 1/2
7:51
and I see another book, a third one at 272 1/2.
7:55
So right off the bat, what do we notice?
7:56
You notice that the total number of homers is going up.
7:59
We also notice a big discrepancy between these different books.
8:02
Like for example, if this lands on 270, you win.
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If you get the book that's offering over 269 1/2, you lose
8:10
if you get the over 270 on the 270 1/2 or the 272 1/2.
8:14
So again, shop around, try to find the best number.
8:17
Best number I see is 269 1/2. The other one at 270 1/2 and
8:22
I'll make it easy. The 269 1/2 right now is at
8:24
DraftKings. The 270 1/2 right now is that
8:28
ESPN bet and the third one 272 1/2.
8:31
That's either, I want to say FanDuel or Bet MGM, but either
8:34
way, shop around. So first thing I notice is this,
8:37
and again, you got to think of it this way.
8:38
How many people tonight are betting the overall total number
8:41
of home runs? It's probably a decent amount,
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but this is kind of an obscure prop bet that probably a lot of
8:46
people don't even know about, don't even know what's
8:48
available. Because when you go to your
8:49
sports book and you look at Home Run Derby, it's going to show
8:52
you the winner odds and then you got to click all these other
8:54
tabs to find these other prop bets.
8:57
I'll give you example to like the overall footage of the
9:00
longest home run. Tonight I saw one book open 480
9:03
1/2. Now it's up to 482 1/2 at one
9:06
shop. So that's moving up as well.
9:08
My concern there was the roof is going to be closed tonight.
9:12
So all right, looks like it's going to be closed.
9:14
I don't know if that's fully confirmed, but it's going to be
9:17
over 100° in Texas and they're going to close the roof and the
9:21
ball doesn't travel as far with the roof closed.
9:23
Now, when we're betting on the length, you know, we would need
9:27
the longest home run tonight to be 480-3484 at some shops.
9:33
The longest home run I noticed in the game at Globe Life was
9:35
Nomar Mazara back in 2019. He had a 505 foot home run.
9:41
I don't know if the roof was open or not.
9:42
But anyway, the roof being closed doesn't benefit the
9:46
length of the Homer. But it really shouldn't matter
9:48
with the total number of homers, Do you what I'm saying, Like you
9:50
should still put these balls out, but instead of traveling,
9:54
you know, 480, maybe it's 470. So kind of the roof being
9:57
closed. And again, I'm still rooting for
9:59
the longest home run to be over that number just because it has
10:01
risen. But that just scares me off.
10:03
And I say to myself, you know, do I want to take a shot with
10:06
the roof closed and going over 483 feet, or do I want to look
10:11
at the total number of homers, which I feel like I have a
10:14
better edge on? So anyway, total number of
10:16
homers back to the one we're betting tonight. 267 app up to
10:19
269 1/2. Some shops at 270 or 272 1/2.
10:24
Last year when we had the Home Run Derby at T-Mobile Park in
10:29
Seattle, there were 341 home runs, 341 total.
10:34
So if we're looking for just 270 or 271, can we get 275 and
10:39
everyone cashes easily? You got to say, oh, that looks
10:42
like obviously take the over. But one difference here in terms
10:48
of the total number of homers. There are going to be some rule
10:50
changes tonight. So you may want to Google Home
10:52
run Derby rule changes. I didn't notice anything that
10:56
could benefit greatly like less homers tonight, like instead of
10:59
seating and head and advancing based on seeds, I think it's
11:03
kind of a free for all. Like everyone gets their
11:05
opportunity and I want there are still swing offs.
11:07
We got a root for swing offs. Remember in swing offs,
11:10
basically what that means is you're tied and you get extra
11:13
time, extra homers that we can. It's almost like going into
11:15
overtime when you're sweating a total gives you just more, more
11:18
opportunities to add more to the list.
11:20
But there are some rule changes. Again, nothing huge, obviously.
11:23
I feel like the rule changes probably will lead to less
11:27
homers than last year. But remember, last year was 341.
11:30
So even if you lose 41 homers, you're still at 300.
11:33
So rule changes are something you got to be aware of.
11:36
Also the configuration of the ballpark.
11:38
I was looking at the kind of the way the the ballpark is
11:41
structured, it's 329 to left field, 326 to right and 4:10 to
11:47
dead center. And that ranks basically in the
11:49
middle of the pack in terms of the biggest or smallest stadium.
11:53
Like smallest one in baseball obviously is, is Fenway Park,
11:56
even though the dead center it gets up to 420 in the alley.
11:59
But either way, and this should be a decent ballpark here where
12:03
we launched some homers because it's not huge relatively
12:06
speaking. So we're starting to build a
12:08
case here guys. This is going to be my bet shop
12:11
around. I got the over two well, 269
12:15
1/2. I'll be honest with you.
12:15
I can't bet at DraftKings because I work there or I work
12:19
for Visa and works for DraftKings, but I'm going to
12:21
play the over 270 1/2 that's available at ESPN bet.
12:25
So we're looking for 271 or more combined from all the players
12:30
here tonight. And one other advantage to Arias
12:33
making this a little bit fun. And a lot of people say, hey,
12:35
just bet the winner. It's fun.
12:37
It's, you know, about 5 bucks on it.
12:38
I get it. I hope you win, but I want to
12:40
have some fun in terms of every blast rooting for a Homer.
12:43
And I don't know if Chris Berman still does the Home Run Derby.
12:46
I don't know if he's retired or not.
12:48
Remember, Berman's always back. Back, back, back, back, back.
12:50
Gone. Back, back, back, back.
12:52
So you were able to tonight root for quite a few back.
12:55
Back, back, back, back backs. So that's my cap tonight.
12:58
I'm not going to mess around with the winner because I feel
13:00
like it's too hard to predict, but I'm going to isolate this
13:03
profit that I've seen rise up throughout the day as well as,
13:08
you know, kind of an advantage here based on the configuration
13:11
of the stadium as well as kind of a fun bet.
13:14
Rooting for an over. But again, 341 last year in
13:18
Seattle. Can we get 271 or more again?
13:23
Because maybe there's only one shop you have available at 272
13:26
1/2. That's the highest I saw, but
13:27
I'm going to go 270 1/2. So we need 271 tonight.
13:31
So that is my play. Let's see if we can get a, you
13:34
know, and that's at -115 juice. So can we, you know, risk a
13:38
unit, get .87 units back, something like that.
13:42
That's my play. I'm going total homers over 270
13:45
1/2. But again, if you bet at
13:47
DraftKings, you can probably get a 269 1/2 right now.
13:50
Keep on cruising. So that's our only bet for it
13:52
tonight. Again, there's nothing else to
13:54
bet on. I don't know if there's Russian
13:55
table tennis or whatever else you crazy kids bet on, but
13:59
that's it for the sweats. But let's look toward the NFL
14:02
guys, because the NFL, as you know, is a year round.
14:05
The betting situation obviously like betting on the games,
14:08
that's the best. But you can bet on the NFL
14:11
draft. You can bet on futures bets, and
14:14
you can bet on win totals. And I love betting win totals.
14:16
You've heard me say it before, probably because #1 just the
14:20
kind of act of betting a win total.
14:22
It, it means that you have to do some research.
14:24
So just from in the middle of the summer, researching some
14:26
teams re acclimating yourself to, you know, transactions, you
14:31
know, addition subtractions, just the act of, of, of
14:34
researching or learning about these teams is maybe going to
14:37
benefit you down the road. Like win or lose your futures
14:40
bet. You took some time in the summer
14:42
to learn about these teams that could benefit you later.
14:44
But to me, it's all about looking at the data, not letting
14:47
your bias seep in, but tell me where the smart money's going.
14:50
And that's where I want to place my futures bet.
14:52
So I have three win totals for you that I'm going to share with
14:55
you right now. Now, this one total I already
14:57
talked about maybe a week ago, week and a half ago.
14:59
It was my first win total bet. But just to rehash Houston
15:03
Texans over 9 1/2 wins now, I like the Texans, almost like the
15:07
Baltimore Orioles, a young team with a ton of talent that's just
15:10
getting better and better. So last year the Texans were a
15:13
huge surprise. They went ten and seven.
15:15
They won their division, the AFC S they, if you remember, cashed
15:19
a huge ticket for those of us who took them.
15:21
I think it was a fade the trendy dog play against the Browns and
15:24
then they lost in the division round to the Ravens.
15:26
I also took them there and I lost that bet.
15:28
But anyway, they're really making improvements here and the
15:31
wind total in the offseason has seen a huge almost dog to fave
15:35
or under to over flip. What do I mean by that?
15:38
The wind total open this year going to the offseason at 9 1/2
15:42
member. They won 10 games last year,
15:44
however, it opened at 9 1/2 under -120 Now it's 9 1/2 / -
15:50
140. So that is a dog to fave or a
15:52
flip of the juice where it's juiced up under, maybe it'll go
15:55
down to 9, but liabilities under now that nine and F may go up to
15:59
10 and liabilities on the over. So paying attention to the juice
16:02
is huge when you look at wind totals because it tells you
16:04
which direction the wind is blowing, also tells you if you
16:07
wait too long, you know, it could move to that number.
16:10
So we're seeing that under to over juice movement toward the
16:13
Texans over bet MGM. The over is getting 87% of bets
16:17
and 99% of money. So both the pro and Joe bets,
16:20
but we got to think they're not a lot of, you know, public
16:23
betters betting wind totals right now.
16:25
That's more of a wise guy bet. Usually with the win totals in
16:28
the public, it's just, hey, I'm going to bet my favorite team to
16:30
go over, win the Super Bowl, yadda, yadda, yadda.
16:32
So that tells me 87 percent, 99% money.
16:36
That's just an overwhelming majority of both bets and
16:39
dollars on the over with a low bets, higher dollars
16:42
discrepancy. I'm going to bank on #1 d'amico
16:45
Ryan's and CJ Stroud, coach, quarterback.
16:47
It's so huge in football, but they're now going to their
16:49
second year. Typically you don't want to bet
16:52
against rookie head coaches or quarterbacks.
16:54
Last year didn't matter, they had a great year.
16:56
But thinking of this year that being even better as a
16:59
sophomore, I think there's a a room for growth and experience
17:01
factor there. Also, you love the offseason
17:04
editions. This is probably why the Jews
17:05
move so much. Stefan Diggs.
17:07
Did you know that they picked him up from Buffalo?
17:09
Joe Mixon. Good running back out of the
17:11
backfield, Cash, quite a few Mixon yardage passing props last
17:16
year and they signed Daniel Hunter, a good defensive end.
17:19
Also, they play in a pretty weak division.
17:21
Texans win total is 9 1/2, Jaguars are 8 1/2, Colts are 8
17:25
1/2 and Titans are 6 1/2. So first win total that I've
17:28
already placed that put it in when we talked about it on the
17:30
pod. I don't know a week, week or two
17:31
weeks ago, but I am on the Texans over 9 1/2 wins.
17:36
Next step for you, the Atlanta Falcons over 9 1/2 wins.
17:40
That's right, I'm looking for the Falcons to win 10 games this
17:43
year. Falcons last year when a
17:44
disappointing 7 and 10 finished third in the NFC South, missed
17:48
the playoffs. But oddsmakers are thinking
17:51
maybe it's going to be a good year for the Falcons.
17:53
Their win total open at 9 1/2. The over was -125 now it's 9 1/2
17:58
/ - 135. So it's not as huge of a juice
18:02
discrepancy, you know, under versus over movement here with
18:06
the juice. But the ticket count is really
18:08
interesting because this is a bit of a contrarian over.
18:11
The public is actually betting the Falcons under.
18:14
Currently 56% of tickets are going under, yet 57% of dollars
18:19
are going over. So think of it this way, the
18:21
over is only getting 44% of bets but 57% of the money and the
18:27
juice moved in favor of that low bets, higher dollars over.
18:30
So that tells us that the public is leaning over, yet the juice
18:33
and the money. Or sorry, the public is leaning
18:35
under yet the juice and the money is going over.
18:38
Now elephant in the room is Kirk Cousins.
18:41
Falcons have drafted quite a few, you know tight end, wide
18:45
receiver, running back, Drake London pits, Bejon Robinson.
18:49
They got a lot of really good skill players, but they had
18:51
terrible quarterback play whether it was Heinecke or
18:54
Desmond Ritter. Now you got Kirk Cousins.
18:57
Now he was banged up last year. He should be good to go this
18:59
year. But this win total and winning
19:01
10 games to me is all about Kirk Cousins.
19:04
If he gives you you know your regular Cousins play, this
19:06
should be A10 win team. Now they also drafted Michael
19:09
Pennix junior 8th overall, so insurance if Cousins get gets
19:13
hurt. They did add a couple good wide
19:15
receivers Darnell Mooney and Rondell Moore.
19:17
And they also play in another bad division.
19:19
Their win total is 9 1/2. Saints are 7 1/2, Bucks are 7
19:23
1/2 and Panthers are 5 1/2. And they also have the easiest
19:26
schedule in the NFL. Now there's different ways to
19:28
rank strength the schedule, but I just just tell me who are they
19:31
playing this year and what were their combined records last
19:33
year? Their opponents this year went a
19:35
combined 131 and 158 last year. That's a 453 win percentage.
19:41
So finally got a quarterback in Atlanta.
19:43
Can you win me 10 games? I'm going Falcons over 9 1/2
19:46
wins. I got that at -135 Last bet for
19:50
you, another over. We're going to go to the Windy
19:53
City, Chicago. Who's going to win a fight?
19:55
Deca or a hurricane? You got to go DECA.
19:58
RIP. But anyway, Chicago Bears over 8
20:01
1/2 wins. That's my play here.
20:02
Give me some background. The Bears go back two years ago.
20:05
They were 3 and 14. One of the worst teams in
20:08
football. Maybe the worst team.
20:10
I got to double check that year. Anyway, they went 7:00 and 10:00
20:13
last year. And who was their quarterback?
20:15
Justin Fields. Now they look to continue that
20:18
ascent after drafting Caleb Williams first overall, Roma
20:21
Dunsay 9th overall. So really your, your two, you
20:25
know, your two big players there at quarterback and wide
20:27
receiver, top 10 picks and really what you're banking on.
20:31
You know, historically, I mentioned this earlier, but if
20:33
you're looking for a rookie quarterback to go over a team's
20:36
win total, usually that's not a good idea because rookie
20:38
quarterbacks struggle and it's hard to go from college to the
20:40
NFL. The betting market disagrees.
20:43
Entering the offseason, the Bears win total was 8 1/2 and it
20:46
was -110 both sides. I love it when a win total opens
20:50
at -110 both sides because it's very easy to quickly give it
20:54
couple weeks, couple months and then say, OK, is it still -110
20:58
or do wise guys pick a A side here?
21:00
It's almost like when a game opens at a pick em and baseball,
21:03
you know, where's the early move?
21:04
Where, where does the money go? Because probably wise guys or
21:08
wise gals who's ever betting on these events, you know, they
21:11
don't have it as a pick up. You know, they have, they're
21:13
probably leaning one way or the other.
21:15
So in this situation, it looks like all the smart money is
21:18
leaning over because the 8 1/2 open -110 now it's -165 to the
21:23
over. That is a 55 cent jump.
21:26
That's pretty rare to see a 55 cent jump on a win total.
21:31
The overs getting 64% of bets, 83% of dollars.
21:35
So modest public support, but also sharp money in the form of
21:38
a 19% low bets, higher dollars bet discrepancy.
21:41
Obviously you're banking on Williams and a Dunze playing
21:44
well as rookies, but they also picked up wide receiver Keenan
21:47
Allen, great veteran wide out DeAndre Swift, running back,
21:50
tight end Gerald Everett, and they still have DJ Moore, who
21:53
had a great connection. Obviously doesn't matter now
21:55
because Fields is gone, but DJ Moore has had a lot of bad
21:59
quarterbacks and still put up a lot of numbers.
22:00
So that offense could be pretty potent.
22:03
And the defense they spent a lot of money on last couple years in
22:06
free agency. What I like even more, the Bears
22:09
have the third easiest schedule next year.
22:11
Their opponents went 1:35 and 1:54 last year, a 467 win
22:16
percentage. And Matt Eberflus, I don't think
22:19
much of this guy, but he is entering his third season.
22:21
So you have some stability, some experience.
22:24
They have a new OC, Shane Waldron, who's taking over for
22:26
Luke Getzi. But if you're a Bears fan, DA
22:29
Bears think you have optimism this year.
22:31
I'm going to go Bears over 8 1/2.
22:32
Think of it this way. They won seven games with Justin
22:35
Fields last year. Can you win two more with
22:37
Williams, Dunze, Keenan Allen Everett, DeAndre Swift?
22:42
I think it's doable. So I'm going to go Bears.
22:44
DA Bears over 8 1/2 wins. So Bears over 8 1/2, Falcons
22:49
over 9 1/2 and Texans over nine and a half.
22:51
A little NFL win total talk for you on a very sleepy 15th of
22:56
July when all we got to the Home Run Derby.
22:58
So I think we made the most of a very slow day.
23:01
And really what they call this break here guys is the gamblers
23:05
holiday. What does that mean?
23:06
It means that not much is going on.
23:08
This is the time a lot of gamblers just don't bet, you
23:11
know, recharge the batteries, go to the beach, hang with the
23:13
family. When I used to work at Sports
23:15
Insights, I always remember we would always get this break off.
23:19
So you would usually get like Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday off
23:23
and maybe if you got Saturday, Sunday off, you could have a
23:25
long weekend. So I always think back to my
23:28
first job in the industry with all my buddies working at Sports
23:31
Insights. We love the All Star break
23:33
'cause we got a few days off. Even though I love my I am
23:35
working in betting, it's not like I'm a construction worker
23:38
and lucky to get three days off. But anyway, it always makes me
23:40
think of that. So anyway, guys making the most
23:43
of a sleepy Monday Home Run Derby.
23:45
Let's go over 270 1/2 total homers.
23:48
And then of course, the wind totals that we just spoke about,
23:51
the Texans, the Falcons, and the Bears over.
23:54
But with the end of this pod here imminent, there are a few
23:58
things I always got to tell you. First off, thank you for
24:00
listening. If you're listening to the
24:01
podcast on a Monday when nothing's going on, then I
24:05
salute you. You are an OG.
24:06
You are a grinder. I owe you be it.
24:08
But seriously, thank you for listening to the pod and also
24:12
could you please make my day? Could you please give this
24:14
podcast a 5 star review? If you're listening on iTunes or
24:18
Spotify, five stars, give it a follow.
24:20
It really, really make my day and make me happy as we can
24:23
continue to rise up the rankings with more five star reviews.
24:27
Of course, if you haven't done it yet, today's a good day
24:30
because you don't have much going on.
24:31
You can't tell me you're busy today.
24:32
There's nothing going on other than the Derby tonight.
24:35
But could you please, if you haven't done it yet, go sign up
24:39
for a rhythm and a juice Reel free trial.
24:42
Rhythm of course was great with their AI back predictions for
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right now, both WNBA and golf, as well as Juice Reel who does a
24:49
great job with their daily best bet picks from Robo Jackson,
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arbitrage opportunities, sharp mush plays and syncing your app
24:56
to your sports book so you get that immediately fed into your
25:00
apps. You can track your performance,
25:01
learn more about yourself as a better.
25:02
If you haven't done it yet, do it now so you're ready to go
25:05
when everything starts to pick back up after the All Star
25:08
break. But you can sign up for those
25:10
free trials just by clicking the custom link located in the bio
25:13
description of this podcast. Lastly, if you enjoy the
25:18
breakdowns, you look forward to the all systems go pod each day
25:21
because you like talking sharp bets made with your head and not
25:24
your heart and looking at trying to beat the market and track the
25:27
market. To me, I love that challenge
25:29
each day. But if this style of betting has
25:32
maybe, you know, turn the light on in your head saying, hey, I I
25:35
can grind out some winners here if I make smart bets based on
25:38
what the markets telling me. Well, guess what?
25:40
I wrote a book that you can learn to be even a better
25:44
data-driven, sharp, contrarian sports better.
25:46
All you got to do is go to Amazon.com and type in the
25:48
everything guide to sports betting.
25:51
Pick up a copy for you or for a friend.
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It's got everything I've learned in the industry, guys.
25:54
How lines are set, how and why they move, how to read line
25:57
movement, how to locate sharp action, how to place a bet in
26:00
person or online, how to shop for the best line, how to set up
26:03
a bankroll management plan, all included in the everything guide
26:06
to sports betting. So pick one up for you or a
26:08
friend and I'll sign it for you and I'll buy you a beer or
26:11
ginger ale. If you don't drink, that's fine
26:13
too. When I see you at the book.
26:15
So that about does it everyone. Another part here in the books
26:17
got a little creative today because it's a little bit
26:20
different than our usual routine.
26:22
I do miss a full card of MLB bets, but hey, we'll get back to
26:26
what I want to say. Was it Thursday or Friday?
26:28
I think Friday we get back-to-back to the grind.
26:31
But anyway, guys, my parting words as always, whether I see
26:35
you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River and Rhode
26:37
Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan
26:40
Sundown in Connecticut, at the Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge
26:43
Park Casino or MGM Springfield and my neck of the woods in
26:46
Massachusetts. Or of course, out in the desert
26:48
where the true grinders get down, where Billy Walters sends
26:51
his number runners, where lowest juice possible is found at the
26:53
South Point or sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the
26:56
stadium swimming pool at Circa. However it may be, you're going
26:59
to walk up to me. Hopefully you made some of these
27:01
bets that I recommended yesterday, the Red Sox, the
27:03
Rays, the G men. Guess what?
27:06
First one's on me, next one's on you.
27:07
We're going to post about the book Sweatsharp Contrarian plays
27:10
all night long. So only one bet tonight, guys.
27:13
Let's see if we can get a ton, a plethora of home runs here
27:17
tonight. Let's go over to 70 1/2 in the
27:19
Derby and then I'll see you guys back tomorrow for another
27:21
episode of the All Systems Go Pod powered by rhythm.
27:25
Always. Of course, guys, I'll leave you
27:27
this. Stay sharp, stay contrarian, bet
27:29
against the public, place yourself on the side of the
27:31
house. Always be with the smart money,
27:33
never against it. Will smart money win every time?
27:35
Of course not, because again, we're betting an unpredictable
27:39
industry. But here's the thing, even
27:41
though there's one offs, crazy things can happen.
27:43
Upsets, backdoor covers, bad beats, that's going to happen.
27:47
That's part of betting, the unpredictable nature of it.
27:49
But you know, we can do, we can stay true to the model against
27:52
the public, with the house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid
27:56
parlays, get some closing line value.
27:57
If we can do that, we're going to be successful sports bettors.
28:00
So enjoy the Derby tonight, guys, be back at it tomorrow,
28:03
talk in the All Star game. What do you think?
28:05
Another lower scoring game. American League is right now
28:08
around -115 -, 120. I got some thoughts on that, but
28:11
let's let the the market matriculate a little bit here.
28:14
What we're talking the All Star game for tomorrow, but for
28:17
tonight, the Derby put in some NFL win totals.
28:19
Hope you have a great Monday night, everybody.
28:22
With that being said, I'll see you tomorrow for episode 77 of
28:25
the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast powered by
28:28
Rhythm. Back, back, back, back.
28:30
Back. Back, back, back.
28:31
Gone home. Run.
28:33
Enjoy the Derby everybody, good luck.