Latest / Best of Business / Bill Reinsch: former US Under Secretary of Commerce and Security on Trump imposing a 15 percent global tariff following Supreme Court ruling

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Bill Reinsch: former US Under Secretary of Commerce and Security on Trump imposing a 15 percent global tariff following Supreme Court ruling · Best of Business

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  Speaker 2: So yesterday's Supreme Court ruling has done little to deter
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  Speaker 2: President Donald Trump. Despite the court ruling his tariff hikes
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  Speaker 2: on all imports were illegal, Trump has doubled down on
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  Speaker 2: his trade war, immediately responding with a ten percent global
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  Speaker 2: tariff before today upping that to fifteen percent. To talk
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  Speaker 2: us through, at former US Under Secretary of Commerce and
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  Speaker 2: Security Bill ranch Is with US Now, Bill, good morning.
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  Speaker 3: Warning.
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  Speaker 2: You saw this coming, you said head on news talk
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  Speaker 2: s d B not too long ago, that the Supreme
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  Speaker 2: Court would vote against the tariff six to three. Well done.
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  Speaker 2: Do you think President Trump saw it coming?
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  Speaker 3: Yes? I think they did, because they've been same for
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  Speaker 3: months that they have a plan B to reimpose the
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  Speaker 3: tariff by the means, and they started implementing that, you know,
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  Speaker 3: within hours of the decision. So I think they knew
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  Speaker 3: it was coming and they were prepared.
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  Speaker 2: Is this a loss for Trump?
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  Speaker 3: Well? I think yeah, Well yes, I don't think it's
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  Speaker 3: that big a gain for business because I've been telling
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  Speaker 3: companies for months that if they think this is going
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  Speaker 3: to save them they're wrong. I mean, they may get
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  Speaker 3: a refund, but there's still going to be tariffs one
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  Speaker 3: way or the other. It's a loss for Trump in
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  Speaker 3: two ways. From the standpoint of other countries. It takes
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  Speaker 3: away his biggest stick, you know, it makes it much
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  Speaker 3: harder for him to threaten and bully other countries by
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  Speaker 3: threatening tariffs. He won't be able to do that anymore,
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  Speaker 3: and I think that's why he's really unhappy. It also
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  Speaker 3: is a significant limitation on presidential power. I mean, the
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  Speaker 3: real importance of this decision, which is historic. I mean,
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  Speaker 3: this is going to be one that people remember for
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  Speaker 3: fifty years, is a very firm rebuke by the Supreme
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  Speaker 3: Court that the president can't just impose tariffs because he
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  Speaker 3: feels like it. You know that if the power of
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  Speaker 3: taxation in the United States resides in the legislature and
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  Speaker 3: not with the president, a.
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  Speaker 2: Big would it be fair to say, Bill that this
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  Speaker 2: is the Supreme Court reminding the administration of their independence.
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  Speaker 3: Well, yes, yes, I mean it was. It was not unanimous,
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  Speaker 3: as you probably It was six' three And trump has
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  Speaker 3: already lashed out at his two appointees who voted against.
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  Speaker 3: Him but, YES i think they did exercise your. Independence
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  Speaker 3: what there's what people are speculating here now is is
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  Speaker 3: this one off or is this going to happen more
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  Speaker 3: often in the. Future there's several more big cases coming
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  Speaker 3: up and are nothing to do with trade where they're
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  Speaker 3: going to have an opportunity to do this, again and
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  Speaker 3: people are waiting to see how they how they.
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  Speaker 2: React, So, bill we had the ten percent global tariff
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  Speaker 2: come straight on and then that was apt to fifteen.
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  Speaker 2: Percived AM i correct in saying that these global tariffs
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  Speaker 2: can only be in place for one hundred and fifty.
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  Speaker 3: Days, yes, well, yes Unless congress votes to extend. That by,
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  Speaker 3: law the president can only do one hundred fifty. Days
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  Speaker 3: he can Ask congress to extend them longer than, that
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  Speaker 3: they would have to vote on. THAT i think the
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  Speaker 3: current assessment here is that he doesn't have the votes for.
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  Speaker 3: That that's very unlikely to. Happen what he's going to
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  Speaker 3: do is use one hundred and eight one hundred and
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  Speaker 3: fifty days as breathing space to come up with other
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  Speaker 3: things that will allow the. Tariffs and does he have.
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  Speaker 2: You, know excuse, me other laws in mind that he
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  Speaker 2: will use to do.
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  Speaker 3: That, well, YES i mean they're not as good from
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  Speaker 3: his point of, view but and the two that they've
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  Speaker 3: tended to focus on are well known to other countries
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  Speaker 3: because they've been victims of them and other. Texts one
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  Speaker 3: is section two thirty two of The Trades bash back
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  Speaker 3: in nineteen sixty. Two that's a national security provision where
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  Speaker 3: If trump besides there's a national security, threat which he's
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  Speaker 3: done in numerous cases so, far including middle mini needles
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  Speaker 3: and crochet, hooks WHICH i think is, strange and kitchen
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  Speaker 3: cabinets and bathroom, vanities but if you see the, threat
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  Speaker 3: he can impose. Tariffs the other one is section three h,
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  Speaker 3: one which is an old from nineteen seventy, four which
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  Speaker 3: allows him to basically retaliate if he identifies an unfair
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  Speaker 3: or unjustifiable foreign practice that burdens or RESTRICTS us, commerce
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  Speaker 3: and he used that so far mostly Against, china but
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  Speaker 3: it sounds like now they're going to starting pointed against
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  Speaker 3: other countries as. Well there's already an investigation underway with
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  Speaker 3: respect To. Brazil those that goes country by, country and
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  Speaker 3: that one is subject to a whole bunch of procedural,
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  Speaker 3: requirements including they have to announce. It it has some
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  Speaker 3: time for public. COMMENTS a bunch of speed bumps in
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  Speaker 3: the way.
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  Speaker 2: You mentioned. Refunds the companies have paid billions of dollars
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  Speaker 2: in TARIFF i think to see the figures hit the
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  Speaker 2: number at one hundred and thirty three, Billion does that
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  Speaker 2: money now legally need to be?
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  Speaker 3: Repaid, well that's a really good. QUESTION i think the
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  Speaker 3: legal consensus is, yes based on prior case law in other, situations,
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  Speaker 3: yes it needs to be. Refunded there is a process
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  Speaker 3: for that that is well, established that has been used for.
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  Speaker 3: Years because you, know everybody makes. Mistakes importers put down
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  Speaker 3: the wrong tariff, classification the customer service makes. Mistakes there
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  Speaker 3: are underpayments and overpayments all the, time refunds going back
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  Speaker 3: all the. Time so the process, exists it's never been
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  Speaker 3: employed on this. Scale my number is one hundred and seventy.
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  Speaker 3: Billion it's will the bigger than your est but you
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  Speaker 3: know it's a, lot and they never had to do
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  Speaker 3: it that way. Before my sense, is you, know the
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  Speaker 3: government can make it, harder they can make it, easy
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  Speaker 3: and they'll probably make it hard and that means it
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  Speaker 3: will be a lot of lawsuits and the burden will
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  Speaker 3: be on businesses to come in and demand a. Refund you,
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  Speaker 3: know if they just set there waiting for the payment
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  Speaker 3: to show, up you, know in their bank, accounts not
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  Speaker 3: going to. Happen they're going to have to file something
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  Speaker 3: and prove that they paid the tariff and that all
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  Speaker 3: the paperwork is in.
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  Speaker 2: Order what impact would repaying the money have on you With.
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  Speaker 3: That's an interesting, Question probably not a. Lot there's no
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  Speaker 3: expectation here that prices will go down as a. Result you,
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  Speaker 3: know prices in general are sticky upwards in, economists and
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  Speaker 3: nobody thinks that that retailers here who had to raise
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  Speaker 3: their who raise their prices because the tariffs are going
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  Speaker 3: to take them back down and give them money back to.
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  Speaker 3: Consumers but for companies it's good. News they'll get you,
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  Speaker 3: know collectively one hundreds of eventy billion dollars, back and
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  Speaker 3: the treasury will be that much. Poorer so it's not
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  Speaker 3: that great for the government government if the tariffs he
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  Speaker 3: puts in to replace them are amount to the same.
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  Speaker 3: Thing you, KNOW i think the effect on the economy
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  Speaker 3: will be overall will be.
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  Speaker 2: Minimal look, countries retailers they prefer not to have the,
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  Speaker 2: tariffs but even more so they hate the, uncertainty not
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  Speaker 2: knowing where we're going and what we're. Doing but at the,
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  Speaker 2: moment with you, know it's sort of still sitting around fifteen.
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  Speaker 2: PERCENT i imagine people are just going to keep calm
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  Speaker 2: and carry, on aren't. They? BILL i, mean how do
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  Speaker 2: you react to this when we don't know where it's
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  Speaker 2: going to.
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  Speaker 3: GO i think that's what they do in THE. UK
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  Speaker 3: i didn't know that's what they do In New zealand,
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  Speaker 3: too but, YES i, think you, KNOW i think the
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  Speaker 3: smart countries are going to wait and see what. Happens
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  Speaker 3: there are. Differences the administration is indicated that countries that
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  Speaker 3: have signed and concluded and signed a trade agreement with
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  Speaker 3: The United, states THE us argues that those terriffs stay in.
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  Speaker 3: Effect so if You're malaysia and you signed went Or
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  Speaker 3: indonesia a couple of days, ago and you signed an
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  Speaker 3: agreement with tariffs of nineteen, percent The american government, says
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  Speaker 3: you're at nineteen, percent you, know and you don't get
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  Speaker 3: to go to, well it's not ten. Fifteen as of this,
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  Speaker 3: morning The president has changed what he said. Yesterday if
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  Speaker 3: you haven't signed an agreement and concluded, ONE i think
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  Speaker 3: you're in a different, position AND i expect in those
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  Speaker 3: cases to negotiate the negotiation to slow. Down and if
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  Speaker 3: you are in a situation where your parliament has to
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  Speaker 3: approve the, agreement, we'll you, KNOW i expect that to slow.
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  Speaker 3: Down the Bell whether there Is European, parliament you, know
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  Speaker 3: who is supposed to take up that. AGREEMENT i think
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  Speaker 3: next week in committee and next month in the Full,
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  Speaker 3: parliament and we'll see if They if they cancel that
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  Speaker 3: that'll be. Significant but every government has got to be,
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  Speaker 3: thinking you, KNOW i only made this deal BECAUSE i
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  Speaker 3: was forced into it by. Tariffs if you can't force
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  Speaker 3: me into it, anymore MAYBE i should think about backing The.
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  Speaker 3: House but nobody's going to move quickly on. That they're
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  Speaker 3: going to see what he does and proceed very. CAREFULLY i.
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  Speaker 2: Think, Well, rynch thank you so much for your time this.
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  Speaker 2: Morning very much appreciate. It that was the FORMER Us
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  Speaker 2: Under secretary Of commerce And.
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