Latest / The Fourcast / Mamdani and Polanski: can a new left undo Trump’s climate reversal?
Transcript
- 0:00This administration, the United States has completely shifted
- 0:02the dynamic around getting to Net 0 at all.
- 0:06Comments that Bill Gates made even in the past week about
- 0:10effectively a more moderate approach is a complete shift.
- 0:13Trump surrendering, going back to drill, baby drill, as he puts
- 0:16it. In doing so, he's could well be
- 0:18surrendering the greatest economic opportunity in the
- 0:21history of the human race to China.
- 0:23Let's just come then to the the big political development New
- 0:26York and and Zara Mandani. Is there a bigger trend here
- 0:30that might lead to something? Hello and welcome to the
- 0:36forecast. While COP 30 gets underway in
- 0:39Brazil, in the US, Donald Trump is ripping up climate policy,
- 0:43blasting his allies for falling for what he calls the world's
- 0:47greatest con job. And big business is working out
- 0:50whether or not to follow his lead.
- 0:51And yet in New York, Zoran Mandani, a left wing populist
- 0:55unafraid to tout a green agenda, has just won the mayoral race.
- 0:59And in the UK, the Green Party has surged under Zach Polanski.
- 1:03So is the direction of travel really a climate rollback?
- 1:06Or is a new left preparing to claim power and reclaim the
- 1:10climate argument? With me from COP in Belem is our
- 1:14chief correspondent, Alex Thompson, and in London, the
- 1:17financial journalist and author Andrew Ross Sorkin, whose new
- 1:20book 1929 investigates the Wall Street crash.
- 1:24Thank you both for joining us. Andrew, let's begin with you.
- 1:27I mean, to what extent is Trump trying to cast a shadow over COP
- 1:3330 and frustrate the whole, you know, the whole process?
- 1:37Oh, I don't think he's just trying.
- 1:39I think he is and and doing so quite successfully by I mean all
- 1:43of the rollback efforts that have been made already by this
- 1:48administration in the United States has completely shifted
- 1:50the dynamic around net getting to net 0 at all.
- 1:55And I think you're seeing it in terms of even the large big tech
- 1:57companies in America that made all sorts of pledges effectively
- 2:01stepping away from them. The comments that Bill Gates
- 2:03made even in the past week about effectively a more moderate
- 2:08approach towards those goals is a complete shift.
- 2:12And and despite frankly you know, the mayoral elect in in
- 2:16New York City, Zoran Mandami, I am not sure that the direction
- 2:21of travel is in, in cops favour, if you will, in this moment.
- 2:27Yeah, I mean, look, look, Trump is sort of is not sending a high
- 2:29level team to Brazil. America's coming out of the
- 2:33Paris climate agreement. But but just just focus on on
- 2:37that sort of corporate America story, if you like.
- 2:40I mean, you wrote about Bill Gates.
- 2:43I mean, how much of a real rollback is this?
- 2:47Or is there an element to which corporate America is getting on
- 2:50with what it was doing before Trump was re elected, but just
- 2:54not being as vocal about it as it was before so as not to annoy
- 2:59him, you know? Look, I think there's some level
- 3:03of of truth to that. I think one of the things that's
- 3:05happened in the United States is the the enormous amount of
- 3:07investment being made in artificial intelligence right
- 3:10now. And all of the, the, the sort of
- 3:14power and energy ecosystem around that that's required has
- 3:17raised real questions about how much carbon ultimately is going
- 3:21to be put out as a function of, of all of the new technology and
- 3:26investment that needs to be made and energy that needs to get
- 3:28made. So I think in some ways there's
- 3:30been a complete rethink even with an industry about how to
- 3:34approach these goals. I think there was a lot of good
- 3:37faith efforts that were made, you know, during the past
- 3:40administration before that around net 0 sum, you know,
- 3:44companies suggesting they were going to get to, you know, even
- 3:47even less than net 0 effectively going back in time.
- 3:50But I think actually Bill Gates's comments are especially,
- 3:55you know, important in this moment because one of the things
- 3:57that he's effectively saying now is not the climate is an
- 4:01important, but especially in a moment where, you know, USAID
- 4:05money has effectively disappeared, that now there is a
- 4:09real debate about how resources get spent.
- 4:12And in a world of, of finite resources, is it going to be
- 4:16spent towards climate? Is it going to be spent towards
- 4:18other things? In this case, I think Bill Gates
- 4:20is now saying, I think we'll probably see this him deploy
- 4:23more money towards, you know, measles and polio and things
- 4:26like that. And and frankly, a way at least,
- 4:29or at least less than where he was on climate before.
- 4:33Alex, I mean, to what extent is this shadow being felt in Brazil
- 4:38as COP gets underway? Well, I think the the shadows
- 4:40clearly being felt in in Brazil as are being felt elsewhere
- 4:43across the whole climate world. But there is, dare I say it, a
- 4:46possibility that we might be getting America here and
- 4:49Trumpism a little bit out of perspective.
- 4:52There is the second industrial revolution on this planet going
- 4:55on. We started, the Brits LED it of
- 4:57course with coal 150 odd years ago.
- 4:59It's now happening with electricity, and it's now being
- 5:02LED very much by China. Now, that's impossible to
- 5:06ignore. And when you set that fact, and
- 5:09it is an economic fact against what Trump and other politicians
- 5:15of some parties may be saying elsewhere in the world, it comes
- 5:19close to being a little bit irrelevant.
- 5:21You know, I mean renewables outstripped fossil fuels for the
- 5:25first time last year by 4141%. The projection of of renewables
- 5:30roll out has exceeded the expectations and the projections
- 5:33of the International Energy Agency by 1500% since 2015.
- 5:39The amount of money going into renewables is now 2.1 trillion
- 5:43this year. That is twice the amount of
- 5:46money going into coal, oil and gas.
- 5:49More people last year for the first time were employed in
- 5:52renewables around the world energy sector than are employed
- 5:55in fossils. That is the reality.
- 5:57That is what is happening. And nothing that Donald Trump or
- 6:00anybody else politically can say about, you know, global warming
- 6:04being a con or net 0 being too expensive.
- 6:06They never tell you what not doing net 0 cost, by the way,
- 6:10none of that is going to make any difference because big
- 6:12business frankly sees the climate breakdown as an
- 6:15opportunity and they're going for it.
- 6:18And yet, you know, Europe is clearly divided.
- 6:22It's declarations at the beginning of COP have clearly
- 6:26been watered down. Their ambitions have been
- 6:30shrunk. They're delaying the start of
- 6:33the new European carbon market. You know, what do you think is
- 6:37going on there And, and, and, and what do you think we will
- 6:40then hope to get out of this COP by the end of it?
- 6:45Well, hope it's not hope. It's not exactly thick in the
- 6:49steamy Equatorial air here, Krishnan, to put it, to put it
- 6:52mildly. And the political reasons for
- 6:54that are obvious. But I mean, the cop is one
- 6:57thing, but it is apart from the House, it's fearsomely
- 7:00democratic. So one country, one country out
- 7:03of what is 194, whatever can stymie and sabotage the whole
- 7:07process. The Saudis want to sabotage
- 7:09things because they want to go on exporting oil.
- 7:11The biggest oil exporters on the planet, the Indians have a
- 7:14massive domestic coal interest. They want to keep that going.
- 7:18But at the same time, there is this extraordinary push towards
- 7:22renewables elsewhere. And don't forget, these cops do
- 7:25matter. If it wasn't for the cop
- 7:27process, we'd all still be talking about the ozone layer.
- 7:30It was a COP which put paid to that and stopped the CFCS going
- 7:34into the atmosphere. If it wasn't for cops, humans,
- 7:37humanity would be looking at a four Celsius rise in
- 7:41temperatures, average global temperatures by the end of the
- 7:43century. That's been pulled back to 2.6.
- 7:47And if you what I've just been saying about how the projections
- 7:50for renewables are outstripping, the reality is outstripping the
- 7:53projections for renewables, that 2.6 could come lower still.
- 7:58So they do make progress. It's just, as many people would
- 8:02say, too slow. Andrew.
- 8:04Well, look, I think they out this point, there's no question
- 8:07renewables are still, you know, on a trend line going in the
- 8:10right direction. But so much of that trend line
- 8:12is actually a function of what's happening in China uniquely.
- 8:15And actually one of the things that's going to be very
- 8:17interesting to watch over the next several years is how much
- 8:20the United States and frankly Europe want to compete
- 8:22effectively with China when it comes to renewables.
- 8:26That is a functional big question mark right now.
- 8:29But I do think I going back to this direction of travel in
- 8:33terms of what corporate America is looking at right now.
- 8:36You know, they're seeing a president that effectively is
- 8:39saying don't invest in these things.
- 8:41I mean, it's not just saying that they that this president's
- 8:44agnostic, This president is not agnostic about where where fuel
- 8:49and energy is going to come from in the future.
- 8:52That that has become an interesting point.
- 8:54And you have not seen the CEO community rise up and raise
- 8:58their hand and say, you know what, Mr. President, we disagree
- 9:00with you. In fact, they have been silent
- 9:02on this issue in large part, to be honest with you, because
- 9:05either they disagree with the president or frankly, they agree
- 9:08with the president or think that it's a cheaper option to go that
- 9:11approach, even if it's the short term approach.
- 9:14Do do they not fear, though, that America will just fall
- 9:17behind, that this is is a massive missed opportunity as
- 9:20China surges ahead with renewables and takes this sort
- 9:24of global leadership role, that America becomes, you know,
- 9:28partly irrelevant but also way behind in business terms?
- 9:33Well, look, the big question right this moment is actually a
- 9:36function of tariffs and how the tariff regime is changing
- 9:42everything. I mean, you know, the United
- 9:43States effectively has argued that these tariffs are some kind
- 9:46of national security or resiliency argument.
- 9:49But the truth of the matter is that if you are creating your
- 9:52own domestic economy, the competition becomes less
- 9:56important. Look, I like competition.
- 9:59You like competition. Actually, most CE OS think that
- 10:02they like competition, except when it's competition with
- 10:05themselves. So the so the global markets in
- 10:08renewable technology is not seen as the big opportunity that it
- 10:13was two years ago. I think that there is a real
- 10:17divide given that what given this idea of the fracturing of
- 10:20globalization right now, I think there's a real question mark
- 10:24within the CEO community, especially in the United States
- 10:27about what that really means anymore and what competition in
- 10:31around the globe is ultimately going to look like.
- 10:34And the truth is the United States, while we were creating
- 10:37some of this technology, we were not manufacturing it and
- 10:40exporting it. And so that's an interesting and
- 10:43important factor just to think about service, how U.S. business
- 10:46thinks about this. In fact, most of it was being
- 10:49imported. Alex, I mean, the other thing
- 10:51that's that may, you know, rear its head in these negotiations
- 10:55is the fear among some countries of Trump using his tariff policy
- 11:00to to thwart international agreements.
- 11:04We saw what happened at the IMO over the last few days where
- 11:08Trump basically blocked a, a, a, an attempt to make shipping more
- 11:13environmentally friendly. Could he do the same at COP 30?
- 11:19He could come to that in a minute, just to come back to
- 11:20what Andrew was saying a moment ago.
- 11:22I'm sure Andrew would agree with me.
- 11:23Don't read too much into the silence of CEOSCEOS.
- 11:26Don't pick fights with Heads of Government.
- 11:28That's not that. Therefore, the board doesn't
- 11:30like it. The markets don't like it.
- 11:31They get on. And in terms domestically of
- 11:33getting on, let's consider, if you will for a moment, what's
- 11:37happening in the United States. Where's the biggest roll out of
- 11:40renewables in the United States? Which state would you choose?
- 11:43The answer, of course, is Texas. Oil rich, gas rich Texas.
- 11:47They're people. They're absolutely forging
- 11:49ahead, and they're forging ahead with as much perhaps silence,
- 11:52subtlety and subterfuge as they can.
- 11:55Globally. It is said in some quarters, and
- 11:58there may be some grain of truth in this or it may be hyperbole
- 12:00that Trump surrendering on the issue of going back to drill,
- 12:05baby drill as he puts it. In doing so, he's could well be
- 12:08surrendering the greatest economic opportunity in the
- 12:12history of the human race to China to get on with it and
- 12:15perhaps the EU when they get their act together to come on in
- 12:17the curts in the coat tails. Certainly across the UK there
- 12:20are many of companies who are forging ahead in the renewables
- 12:24markets and selling right into markets like like the United
- 12:27States. We filmed in one last week,
- 12:29massive batteries, container sized batteries.
- 12:32Where are they penetrating the market in the US?
- 12:34Why? Because U.S. companies are being
- 12:36discouraged from doing so. But they need large batteries
- 12:40for when the wind don't blow. Now, as regards the IMO, yeah,
- 12:43the big fear you talked, we started this conversation
- 12:46worrying about the shadow of Trump hanging over.
- 12:48It's true Trump isn't sending a high level delegation.
- 12:51It's true he's trying to pull out of Paris, but that would
- 12:54still take many, many more months to achieve.
- 12:56It's also true that a lot of state interests, California and
- 13:00many states, are sending delegations here to say, look,
- 13:04bluntly, we're not listening to what the White House is saying.
- 13:06We're getting on with making money in renewables.
- 13:08But there is that fear at the end of the International
- 13:11Maritime Organization's conference where they were
- 13:14trying at last to find a globally agreed way of curbing
- 13:18emissions from bunker oil, from ships, chimneys, if you will.
- 13:22And they were close to it and they had it.
- 13:25Trump sent in his people, the saboteurs in suits to wreck
- 13:29that. There is they fear that that
- 13:31that could be attempted here at the cop.
- 13:34But at the moment Trump is saying that they're not sending
- 13:37any delegation of any real worth and they're sticking to that.
- 13:40But we shall see. Andrew wants to come in.
- 13:43Yeah, just one note. You know, during the first Trump
- 13:46administration, the CEO community spoke out and spoke
- 13:51out quite vocally about things that they disagreed with this
- 13:54with the president, including on climate, including on his views
- 13:58about the Paris climate accord and so many other issues.
- 14:02And and so to suggest that somehow the silence is somehow
- 14:05no different and that that that CE OS never speak out against,
- 14:10you know, people in power, I think is actually a a false
- 14:13choice. I think we saw it in action
- 14:16empirically between 2016 and 2020 repeatedly over and over
- 14:22and over again. And it's only now actually given
- 14:25some of the steps that this administration has taken against
- 14:28businesses, against universities and, and, and against his
- 14:31enemies in other ways, that we have now seen some of the
- 14:36wealthiest people in the United States who would otherwise raise
- 14:40their hand, not raise their hand out of fear, sure, but.
- 14:43What we can agree on, Andrew, what we can agree on is that
- 14:46they are by self getting on with it.
- 14:48You know they are still doing this stuff.
- 14:50Some, but I think it's I, I, I mean, I think that there is
- 14:53some, there is some of it still going on, but I think the, the
- 14:56the path of travel in terms of the ambitions that they had even
- 15:01two years ago is just so very different today than it was
- 15:04then. Can can you just and I say it's
- 15:06unfortunate I. Mean what is actually driving
- 15:10Trump, you know, is it is it just America first?
- 15:14He thinks, you know, that, that, you know, that there is an
- 15:17easier way to prosperity from oil and gas in the short term.
- 15:21You know, is it some attempts to sort of thwart China by
- 15:26undermining the whole renewable energy, you know, process or is
- 15:31it that he he just doesn't understand this stuff?
- 15:35I think it's probably all of the above and some, you know, it's
- 15:38never black and white. I think it's a piece of all of
- 15:40the different components that you just described.
- 15:43You know, I think on the election trail when he was, you
- 15:46know, making pledges to to, you know, vast parts of America,
- 15:50especially in, in towns that had historically coal and other
- 15:53kinds of what what might describe as dirty energy and the
- 15:56like. Part of his appeal was he was
- 15:59saying that he was going to help those people get their jobs
- 16:02back. That's that's what he ran on.
- 16:05He's somebody who historically has not really believed in
- 16:08climate change unto itself that that that actually carbon even
- 16:12in his mind necessarily is the is the knob, if you will, that
- 16:17is going to change the dynamic over time.
- 16:20So I think there's a whole bunch of reasons why, you know, and he
- 16:23would put even climate in this sort of category of woke ISM,
- 16:27you know, a phrase that you know, has become the the phrase
- 16:30of the day in America, but that has sort of an amorphous meaning
- 16:33in lots of ways. Let's just come then to the the
- 16:36big political development of the day, which is New York and and
- 16:40Zara Mandani. Is New York just another country
- 16:44or, or, or is there a bigger trend here that might lead to
- 16:48something? Look, I think there's real
- 16:51questions about capitalism and socialism and that you're seeing
- 16:54that play out in New York. And I think it's it's
- 16:56representative of affordability crisis that's happening in
- 16:59America. I think both parties would agree
- 17:02that there's an affordability crisis in America.
- 17:04The question is how do you attack that issue of
- 17:06affordability. What I think we don't know, and
- 17:09it'll be great experiment, is to see what ultimately happens in
- 17:11New York and how much of his agenda, which includes things
- 17:17that are almost the antithesis for a place that's considered
- 17:20the capital of capitalism, whether that will work.
- 17:23And that's the experiment. Yeah, I mean, Alex, I mean,
- 17:28there are there are fewer Heads of Government going to cop than
- 17:32last year, aren't there? But I mean, what, what is the
- 17:34sort of, what is the political feeling?
- 17:36Do you think you know the the sort of if there was a sort of a
- 17:38centre of gravity politically that is moving to the right in
- 17:44lots of parts of the world, is that being felt at COP?
- 17:47I don't think it is. I mean, the swing of the
- 17:50political centre of gravity doesn't quite work like that
- 17:54when you've got this extraordinary sort of, as I
- 17:57said, democracy of 194 countries where everybody has got to agree
- 18:02on anything before anything is agreed at all.
- 18:05You can see from what we've been talking about, what Andrews just
- 18:08been explaining about the domestic shift.
- 18:10I'm in recent elections in in the US.
- 18:13Quite plainly, what people are seeing here and what they're
- 18:15looking to is China as a leader, as giving leadership in this.
- 18:20China has moved its move to address in its NDC nationally
- 18:25these national plans that countries are required to come
- 18:28up with. It has for the first time moved
- 18:30to talking indefinite, quantifiable terms about carbon
- 18:35reduction. It's doing more by scale than
- 18:39any other country on the planet in terms of rolling out
- 18:42renewables. Xi Jinping doesn't come to these
- 18:45things. And that's so there's nothing
- 18:47new there, but they send, there's almost the next best
- 18:49thing in terms of the sort of high command of the
- 18:51administration in Beijing. So they're looking at them to to
- 18:55to pick up the baton. And here's a slightly weird
- 18:58thing about China in terms of its NDC's, its plans to cut
- 19:02carbon, its plans to stop, curb its pollution.
- 19:06China's quite unusual, the broad brushes that most countries
- 19:09promise a lot but don't deliver to that extent.
- 19:13China has tended rather to do the opposite, be rather cautious
- 19:18in its approach, in its promises, in what it can deliver
- 19:21and actually in quite a number of different areas in terms of
- 19:25carbon reduction across the industrial piece has under has
- 19:28over delivered on these plans. So there's a source of hunch
- 19:33that that might happen here. I mean, the Trump effect
- 19:35obviously has disrupted things. But then again, we've been here
- 19:37before. You know, a few years ago it was
- 19:40Madrid, a cop conference, Trump first administration pulling out
- 19:44of the Paris Agreement, blah, blah, blah, and high level
- 19:47delegations. Nancy Pelosi was giving
- 19:49interviews to every local radio station, every local paper on
- 19:52the conference, on conference floor to make a point.
- 19:55That won't happen in the same way this time around.
- 19:58But yeah, the shift is to China. I mean, that's true, isn't it
- 20:01Andrew, that the pendulum is not going to generally go Trump's
- 20:05way because China and India are are not going to agree
- 20:10ultimately because they know it's in their interest to pursue
- 20:13a renewables, you know, agenda, not least for domestic economic
- 20:17reasons. Well, there's no question.
- 20:19And now we get back to the the question about tariffs.
- 20:23And, you know, if you live in a tariff world, what that
- 20:26ultimately looks like if, if there is this sort of breakdown
- 20:29in globalization, what does it mean for the United States to
- 20:32even compete with China or for China to compete with the US?
- 20:37And if you're implementing all these tariffs around, you know,
- 20:41it it, it fundamentally changes the dynamics of competition.
- 20:44You know, by the way, back in 19291930, we had tariffs in the
- 20:49United States and it reduced global trade by 60% within 12
- 20:54months. And when that happened, I think
- 20:56there was a real wake up call actually about globalization and
- 21:00about what you would actually want in the context of
- 21:02competition. Yeah, I mean, I'm glad, I'm glad
- 21:04you took us to to your book because I was about to do the
- 21:06same thing. I mean, wait, wait, you're
- 21:09looking at, you know, the, the circumstances that led to the,
- 21:13the crash of 1929, which is, which is probably not really
- 21:16widely understood by most people.
- 21:18We just kind of, we know there was a crash, but we're not
- 21:20really sure exactly why, you know, to what extent are the
- 21:25current circumstances similar? What was happening back then?
- 21:30Well. Unfortunately, you know, and it
- 21:32was not my intent when I started writing this book, I was trying
- 21:35to bring people inside the room so they could understand what
- 21:37that crisis looked like. The parallels are quite shocking
- 21:40because it was all of the same kind of euphoria that we're
- 21:43living with today. All of this excitement in the
- 21:45marketplace around new technology.
- 21:47Back then it was telecommunications and radio and
- 21:50automobiles. Today it's AI and this this view
- 21:53that it's going to change the world and it probably will
- 21:55change the world, but it's bringing in all of this
- 21:57investment that is almost indiscriminate to some degree.
- 22:00And as a result, it also comes with leverage.
- 22:03There's so much, there was so many loans being brought into
- 22:06play with AI, but back in the 1920s being brought into play
- 22:10because investors were actually taking out extraordinary loans
- 22:13to bet on all of the stuff in the stock market both in New
- 22:16York and and here in the UK and around the world.
- 22:18And so the real question today when we're looking at sort of
- 22:22where things are, by the way, this relates actually to some of
- 22:24the renewable efforts as well as how much leverage, how much debt
- 22:28is there in the system. And the truth is, right this
- 22:30moment, I don't think we know so.
- 22:33Do you think if we got towards another, well, I mean, you know,
- 22:36maybe not a crash, but a mini crash does that, does that, does
- 22:42that strangle off the climate agenda in developing countries?
- 22:47Well, look. Yes, arguably there's been an
- 22:49argument for years now that, you know, we've been living in, you
- 22:52know, anytime we have boom times, we're able to afford to
- 22:55do things that hopefully move, you know, the human race
- 23:00forward. Renewables may be one of those
- 23:02things, you know, when you get into a moment of a crash or some
- 23:06kind of austerity, investments in things like that seem to
- 23:10dissipate. The real question, and this has
- 23:12been the big issue at COP for years is can you make renewables
- 23:17more economically viable than some of these older, older, you
- 23:22know, CARB carbon fuels that we've been living with for
- 23:27years. And in some cases we have done
- 23:28that, in some cases we haven't. And that's really, I think,
- 23:31going to be a huge dynamic going forward.
- 23:33Yeah, I mean, Alex, I mean, the the promise of making renewables
- 23:38more economically viable than fossil fuels has been greater
- 23:45than the delivery, hasn't it, so far?
- 23:49Well, it depends which dimension you look at.
- 23:51I mean, Cop is the last place that you're going to look to
- 23:54affect a, an economically viable downgrade in the prices that
- 23:59solar panels costs or the blades for wind turbines and so forth.
- 24:02But the market and competition and technology will absolutely
- 24:06do that and absolutely is doing that.
- 24:07You only have to look at, well, anything you want to choose.
- 24:10Let's choose those two examples. The cost of a solar panel, for
- 24:13instance, the cost of a blade on a turbine, wind turbine, for
- 24:16instance. Look, just go and look at the
- 24:18cost of those and there's your answer.
- 24:20They're coming down, down, down and dare I say down as against
- 24:24oil and gas. I mean, oil and gas is a finite,
- 24:27filthy resource. We're going, it is running out.
- 24:29You know, certain parts of the British political establishment
- 24:32talk about getting North Sea oil and gas out of the North Sea.
- 24:35While a lot of it isn't in the North Sea, it's in the northwest
- 24:38Atlantic, West of Shetland. It's a long way out there.
- 24:40It's a long way down. There's hardly any oil anyway,
- 24:44so you're looking at gas. So that's, I just throw that out
- 24:46as an example of what is effectively just in resource,
- 24:50simple resource terms, forget economics and politics, simple
- 24:53resource terms some which is obviously mid long term a sunset
- 24:57industry. The exact opposite is happening
- 24:59in renewables. And Andrew is right, yeah,
- 25:01that's going to be likely impacted in some way should
- 25:06there be God forbid some kind of economic crash.
- 25:11However, the good news is as those prices have come down and
- 25:14that trajectory continues, we would hope there's some
- 25:17insulation to that attack. And Andrew, just finally, I
- 25:20mean, what would the big risk be that all it's the big
- 25:23infrastructure cost that could no longer be financed, You know,
- 25:26it's, it's building these things.
- 25:28Right. And and this is how, but it
- 25:29connects back to energy. So there's a huge infrastructure
- 25:32cost right now and a lot, you know, hundreds of billions of
- 25:35dollars moving towards building these data centers.
- 25:37It's not just the data centers themselves, it's actually the
- 25:39energy that's going to power these data centers.
- 25:41And so the real question is when you have, you know, large
- 25:45language model companies and these tech companies that have
- 25:47not become profitable yet effectively making commitments
- 25:51to buy things that they actually need cash for, whether they're
- 25:54going to be able to make those cash payments in the future.
- 25:56And if we get to a point where they can't make those payments
- 25:59and they've taken on extraordinary debt and there is
- 26:01a crash that actually will set back not just AI, but we'll set
- 26:06back, I would argue the the energy complex and some of the
- 26:10renewable efforts as well given given how connected those
- 26:14markets are. Well, we'll leave it there.
- 26:16Andrew Ross Sorkin, thank you very much indeed for joining us,
- 26:18Alex Hanlakop. And we'll speak again soon.
- 26:21That's the forecast. Bye bye.