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How Weight-Loss Drugs Could Reshape Global Crop Demand · Hydroponics Daily

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  Hello there, and welcome back to
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  Hydroponics Daily, your go-to podcast for everything soilless cultivation.
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  I'm your host, Dr. Russell Sharp. I am the founder of a company called Eutrema
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  Limited, and we make novel hydroponic fertilisers, biostimulants,
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  and organic biopesticides.
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  And I thought I'd do a trend topic today about where I think crop production is going.
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  Normally, you do these sorts of podcasts in January, but I think this is a good
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  one because I was just thinking around these GLP-1 inhibitor drugs that people
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  have been taking for weight loss.
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  And as far as I'm aware, they're going to be introducing an oral version soon,
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  so you don't have to inject it. No syringe is required.
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  You just take an oral drug. And a lot of people are adverse to injecting themselves.
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  They feel queasy about it, and so producing
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  an order could massively increase the number of people who take this and also
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  people think that if you take it orally it's going to be safer not necessarily
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  the case but people you know the general public will be of that opinion a lot
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  of them and so massively increasing the people
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  on these drugs because a lot of people are obese what's that going to happen
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  what's that do to crops that are in demand?
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  Which crops are going to benefit from that? Which crops are going to be vastly
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  reduced in the amount that's required?
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  And which crops are going to be unaffected? And you might think this is crazy,
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  it won't be affected at all, but this has already started to affect the share
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  price of fast food companies and convenience food companies. And so the,
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  If the shareholders think it's going to be an issue, then that could be something to take a look at.
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  So GLP-1 receptor antagonists like semaglutide, liraglutide,
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  or Zempic as it's commonly known. What's the other one?
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  Magiano, something like that.
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  So they reduce the appetite and food intake often by about 15 to 25%.
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  So if you said 30 of the the population
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  were on it and that's a significant reduction in calories
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  total now the one the big losers are going
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  to be corn and maize particularly because
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  that's used in animal feed for poultry pork and beef
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  and thought meat production would come down but also
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  it's used to produce starch and syrups for processed food
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  high fructose corn syrup in soft drinks and confectionery
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  candy things like this so people on
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  these glp1 drugs will have a lower consumption of fast
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  food sugary drinks and snack and so their
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  feed demand drops industrial corn demand drops
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  and corn is going to be one of the biggest losers so
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  don't set up your hydroponic corn production anytime soon same for
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  soya beans also large shares of
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  soya bean are used in high protein animal feed and as
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  vegetable oil in processed food so you don't tend to buy soya oil in certainly
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  not in the UK for cooking but it is used for processed foods less food less
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  meat fewer fried food less soya beans so I said soya beans an interesting one
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  for hydroponics in space but perhaps not one for hydroponics long term.
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  Even if it did become economical. And then, of course, you've got sugar crops
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  like sugarcane and sugarbeet.
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  Now, sugarcane is grown in tropical regions.
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  Sugarbeet is grown in temperate regions like the UK.
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  And obviously, if you are having less soft drinks or sugary drinks and confectionery
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  candy, then obviously sugar demand is going to be vastly reduced.
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  Biofuels may be less affected like the ethanol production
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  from the from sugarcane and things like that but that's policy driven
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  rather than than demand from
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  consumers now the problem with
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  that is that sugarcane and sugar beets rely on
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  a mill being operational in the local area and
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  enough being enough sugar farmers around so if demand for sugar
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  goes down then the economics of running the mill
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  might be reduced and therefore it might not be economical to
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  produce the ethanol then we've got our oil crops particularly
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  palm oil sunflower oil rapeseed or
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  canola as it's called in the north america now obviously fried food convenience
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  food that they're going to be massively hit so if say 30 people cut back heavily
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  on fast food fried food and demand for these would drop that's a good thing
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  for the rainforests especially in asia for what's left of them because palm oil has destroyed them.
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  And coconut oil and things like this will be reduced which potentially
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  could impact the supply of coia and
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  cocoa which fiber which we talked about in the past now what
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  about crops that are positively affected by this so by
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  positive here we mean relative advantage versus the big losers that we talked
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  about before and pulses and legumes potentially so with the exception of soya
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  bean so lentils chickpeas beans peas peanuts glp users and weight management
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  diets often emphasize high protein,
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  high fiber, low energy density,
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  and particularly high plant protein.
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  So those crops will be in demand.
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  And there's some interesting crops there for potentially for hydroponics.
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  If you could produce fresh legumes, that could be a good one,
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  like mange too, stuff like that.
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  Vegetables and fruits, especially those high in fiber, fiber is going to be a massive issue.
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  If people are consuming less food, the doctors
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  are really going to be pushing people to onto high fiber diets because just
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  as we've seen with people in the bodybuilding and weightlifting area
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  if you don't get that fiber if you just rely on protein intake
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  you get massive issues with bowel and bowel cancer so
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  micronutrient dense high fiber foods so your
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  brassicas leafy greens tomatoes peppers there should
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  be some winners and some whole fruits though very
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  sweet could see modest moderation in
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  their effect so overall fresh produce could be a great gain share in in the
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  i think so horticultural crops salads for soups vegetable focus dishes so in
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  in s in theory good thing for hydroponics vertical farms greenhouses glass houses
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  polytunnels and things that.
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  Then what about premium protein sources like poultry, eggs, fish,
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  dairy, and some plant-based proteins?
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  So people on GLP drugs eat less total food, but to preserve muscle,
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  they often advise to maintain an increased protein and things like omega fatty acids.
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  So if your feedstock goes into one of those healthy meats or plant proteins,
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  then it could be a benefit,
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  but on the whole animal feed will be reduced and then
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  crops that are largely unaffected relatively speaking
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  that's because even with big dietary shifts
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  some crop categories have a baseline human
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  needs need a staple amount of calories and so things thought that things like
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  rice you know it's a staple for billions especially in asia billions of people
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  and you know a lot of asians are not obese and so a lot of Haitian people are
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  not going to be going on to these drugs.
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  And so rice should be fine. It's embedded into cuisines. It's embedded into society and culture.
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  And so I can't see, you know, if anything, a very small downward pressure per
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  capita on rice production.
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  Wheat, widely used in breads and noodles and pasta. Wheat is a basic staple.
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  It's going to remain important. You think about
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  you know bakeries biscuits cakes will take a
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  hit but it's going to be a small that's a small share of
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  the total wheat volume most wheat goes into staple
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  food production and is a healthy crop most
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  of the time what about root and tuber crops cassava yams plantains potatoes
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  their core calories even if it you know it's going to be again with like rice
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  especially these are more in lower income countries,
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  especially cassava, yams, plantains,
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  so largely unaffected, and these areas are.
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  In these populations you're probably going to need more high quality
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  horticultural crops and high protein to to
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  complement these staple root vegetables
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  then what about like non-food crops beverage
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  crops coffee and tea modest effects
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  i think coffee and tea production will come up will go up
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  because people always want something to do they're not eating they're going to want to be drinking or
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  smoking or doing something else with their time exercising but
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  coffee and tea you know i can see increasing was cocoa chocolate production
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  i can see that taking a big hit it's not predicted to take a big hit but i can
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  see a bit taking a big hit and that's a good thing for worldwide cocoa production
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  long term because as the amount of areas increased the demand,
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  the pressure on the pesticide use and disease
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  pressure is going to increase so we can reduce cocoa
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  and reduce the disease pressure then that
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  could be a good thing and then cotton rubber
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  timber all really non-food crops most mostly
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  unrelated to human calorie intake it's largely unaffected so yeah i can't see
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  them having an effect on any of those so there you go league table if you had
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  a league table then the most negatively affected are going to be your corn maize
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  soybeans sugar cocaine, sugar, beet,
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  palm oil, and then your least affected,
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  your non-food crops and coffee, I would say.
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  So a really interesting one. This is going to be a massive one as soon as oral
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  GLP-1 drugs get approval.
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  I can see an awful lot of people in the UK, North America, Europe going on to them.
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  What do you think? Do you think this is overblown? Do you think this is all
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  hype? I think people are going to have a lot.
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  More money to spend eventually and
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  it's going to massively change the way the world
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  looks i mean pubs in the uk exist for
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  drinking but they also exist for food pub
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  food and so i think a lot of pubs will go out of business vastly
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  the number of pubs has decreased dramatically i think
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  the number of gyms will increase i think the number of leisure pursuits
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  will increase like you know we've already seen this massive increase in
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  the number of concerts that people go to with free
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  with disposable income when they've got it the haves and the have-nots obviously
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  the people who are poor are getting poorer but the
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  people who've got the money go to these concerts and things like that they can go
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  to gyms i think the number of the what
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  do you call it the something economy the experience economy
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  is going to increase so there's going to be a lot more like hyroxes and
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  crossfits and things like this because people are going to be fitter they're
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  not going to be dragging 30 kilos of blubber around with
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  them and so they're going to be up for doing more events they're
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  going to be skydiving and you know trail running and things like this so i think
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  it could have dramatically changed the way countries look and populations behave
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  so really interesting times ahead what do you think you know there are some
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  bad reports there from these drugs you know.
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  My sister is a doctor and she has said that in
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  liverpool one of the hospitals had to issue a
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  warning because people are injecting their kids with these drugs and they're
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  not designed for kids and then robbie williams said in they
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  made him go blind and he was an early adopter so yeah there's a very minor side
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  effect apparently serious eye problems but there you go who knows you know maybe
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  eye clinics will be the thing to invest in but yeah hopefully not so yeah oh and And as people say,
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  show me the drug with no side effects and I'll show you a drug that doesn't
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  work, whether that is legal cannabis or GLP-1 inhibitors.
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  On that bombshell, that is the end of the episode. Thank you very much for listening.
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  listening and until tomorrow goodbye.