Latest / Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar / 3/19/26: Energy Infrastructure Burns, Trump Wants $200 Billion For War, Energy Prices Spike, Mearsheimer Exposes US Disaster

Transcript

3/19/26: Energy Infrastructure Burns, Trump Wants $200 Billion For War, Energy Prices Spike, Mearsheimer Exposes US Disaster · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Hey guys, Saga and Crystal here.
• 0:01
  Speaker 2: Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election,
• 0:05
  Speaker 2: and we are so excited about what that means for
• 0:07
  Speaker 2: the future of this show.
• 0:08
  Speaker 3: This is the only place where you can find honest
• 0:10
  Speaker 3: perspectives from the left and the right that simply does
• 0:13
  Speaker 3: not exist anywhere else.
• 0:14
  Speaker 2: So if that is something that's important to you, please
• 0:17
  Speaker 2: go to Breakingpoints dot com. Become a member today and
• 0:19
  Speaker 2: you'll get access to our full shows, unedited, ad free,
• 0:22
  Speaker 2: and all put together for you every morning in your inbox.
• 0:25
  Speaker 3: We need your help to build the future of independent
• 0:27
  Speaker 3: news media and we hope to see you at Breakingpoints
• 0:29
  Speaker 3: dot com. Good morning, everybody, Happy Thursday. I have an
• 0:35
  Speaker 3: amazing show for everybody today.
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: What do I have, Crystal?
• 0:37
  Speaker 2: Another monster show? A lot, a lot, a lot going on.
• 0:40
  Speaker 2: Israel in the US massively escalating the iron Warnow energy
• 0:44
  Speaker 2: infrastructure throughout the Middle East is on fire predictably, the
• 0:48
  Speaker 2: economy is tanking and oil prices are spiking.
• 0:51
  Speaker 4: So we'll get into all of that.
• 0:52
  Speaker 2: John Meerscheimer is joining us this morning to break down
• 0:55
  Speaker 2: his view on what is happening and where things are headed.
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: Tulci Gabbard to testifying yesterday pretty revealing in not a
• 1:03
  Speaker 2: great way. Joe Kent having just resigned, just tod a
• 1:07
  Speaker 2: bombshell interview with Tucker Carlson. We will bring you all
• 1:09
  Speaker 2: of the highlights of that, some absolutely earth shattering revelations,
• 1:14
  Speaker 2: so a lot to break down there, and then Professor
• 1:16
  Speaker 2: Pape is going to be back with us to explain
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: where we are now in the escalation trap. So truly
• 1:23
  Speaker 2: a massive show today.
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: I do get through, that's right.
• 1:25
  Speaker 3: Thank you everybody who's been supporting us at Breakingpoints dot com.
• 1:29
  Speaker 3: As of now, the current plan is that I will
• 1:31
  Speaker 3: be doing an interview with Joe Kent tomorrow. Obviously that's tentative,
• 1:35
  Speaker 3: and who knows, considering now that the Trump administration is
• 1:37
  Speaker 3: potentially trying to indict him, whether he's even able to
• 1:40
  Speaker 3: do that, But as I said, that's current plan, and
• 1:42
  Speaker 3: we're going to have a section on locals. We're going
• 1:44
  Speaker 3: to post some suggested questions where you can suggest some
• 1:48
  Speaker 3: if you would like, you can comment there and leave
• 1:50
  Speaker 3: anything that you think you would like to get from
• 1:53
  Speaker 3: Joe Kent, So please go ahead and do so. To
• 1:54
  Speaker 3: all of our Premium sbscribers, and if you want to participate,
• 1:56
  Speaker 3: in that you can Breakingpoints dot com. Thank you again
• 1:58
  Speaker 3: to everybody who's support the show at this time for
• 2:01
  Speaker 3: all of this incredible growth that you have given to us,
• 2:04
  Speaker 3: your trust in this immense and very very difficult and
• 2:07
  Speaker 3: dark time I think for the entire world.
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: But yeah, of course, with that, what do we have.
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: So the US and Israel escalating massively yesterday in the
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: Iran war. We can put these images up on the screen.
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: They struck Israel specifically, but apparently with the US's cooperation.
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: Ascent struck Iran's South Pars gas field. Drop site says
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: this is the world's largest natural gas field. It is
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: a core pillar of Iran's energy supply. You can see
• 2:33
  Speaker 2: some of the images of the smoke rising there on
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: your screen. They go on to say the major escalation
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: comes alongside reported impacts on other oil and petrochemical facilities.
• 2:43
  Speaker 2: According to multiple reports, IRGC linked Hasnim News issued in
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: urgent warning urging people to immediately leave major oil and
• 2:52
  Speaker 2: gas sites in Saudi the UAE and Katar, saying they
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: had become direct and legitimate targets that could be struck
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: within hours, and then followed up on that threat, striking
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: in particular in Qatar, in Saudi.
• 3:05
  Speaker 4: And in Kuwait.
• 3:06
  Speaker 2: Let's go ahead and put the Katari images up on
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: the screen.
• 3:10
  Speaker 4: Here.
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: This is Qatar Energy's ros Lafon industrial city to the
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: north of Doha. This is their main site for the
• 3:18
  Speaker 2: production of LNG, which is gas to liquid, as well
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: as the largest export terminal for LNG in the world.
• 3:25
  Speaker 2: So that is a massive deal. Let's go ahead and
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: put this next one up on the screen. This is
• 3:31
  Speaker 2: the strike in Riod that you can see here. And
• 3:35
  Speaker 2: according to drop site News, they say four injured in
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: Riod after debris from an intercepted ballistic missile fell near
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: refinery in Saudi Arabia. For foreign Asian residents were injured
• 3:45
  Speaker 2: limited material damage. But so you have, you know, strikes
• 3:48
  Speaker 2: here in Riod, which is pretty extraordinary. Inside of Saudi Arabia,
• 3:53
  Speaker 2: you also had some strikes inside of Kuwait. And then
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: this is the big one. Let's put this next tear
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: sheet up on the screen. From the eight Saudi Arabia
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: said a drone hit the country's sam Raf refinery in
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: the port city of Yanbu on the Red Sea. And
• 4:09
  Speaker 2: there is a reason why I say this one is
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: extremely significant. You know, We've been following Rory Johnston. Oil
• 4:15
  Speaker 2: and gas analyst Arnold Bertrand has also been talking about
• 4:18
  Speaker 2: how significant this is as well. If you can put
• 4:21
  Speaker 2: this map up on the screen, you can see so
• 4:23
  Speaker 2: on one side we have the straight Offoe moves, which
• 4:27
  Speaker 2: of course Ron has locked down, so that's one way
• 4:30
  Speaker 2: to ship oil out of the region. On the other
• 4:33
  Speaker 2: side you have the Red Sea where so far the
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: Houthis have not engaged, and so Saudi has been shipping
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: oil in this East West pipeline to the Red Sea
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: so that they can continue.
• 4:44
  Speaker 4: To export you know, some proportion of the oil there.
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: And now that area, that port and right where that
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: pipeline is, that has been struck as well. Last thing,
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: sider before I get your reaction here, because Rory Johnston
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: was tweeting about this, so he was warning this is
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: a really big deal when the reports were unconfirmed. Now
• 5:05
  Speaker 2: this Saudi Ministry of Defense, he says, now confirming that
• 5:08
  Speaker 2: one ballistic missiles were launched at the port of Yanbu
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: which were intercepted. A drone has fallen on an oil
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: refinery in Yanbu. Knew the lack of denial was weird,
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: not great. That Iran is turning its attention to the
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: Red Sea. So we don't have full information about the
• 5:23
  Speaker 2: extent of the damage, but if you're looking at cutting
• 5:26
  Speaker 2: off both of those pathways to export oil from the region,
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: this is an earth shattering mood.
• 5:32
  Speaker 3: Right exactly for everybody who took a look at the
• 5:34
  Speaker 3: map the Red Sea Saudi Arabia, the East West Pipeline
• 5:37
  Speaker 3: is able with that pipeline to get about seventy to
• 5:40
  Speaker 3: eighty percent of the oil the previously would go through
• 5:42
  Speaker 3: the Straits of Hormud. So seventy eighty percent, by the way,
• 5:44
  Speaker 3: is still a catastrophe for global oil supply, but seventy
• 5:47
  Speaker 3: to eighty is a lot better than zero. So the
• 5:49
  Speaker 3: striking of that refinery is a message not only are
• 5:52
  Speaker 3: we going to be able to try and target the pipeline,
• 5:54
  Speaker 3: the refineries and some of the loading to be able
• 5:56
  Speaker 3: to get all of that out. Now, don't forget this
• 5:59
  Speaker 3: was an I Range Union state action. This was not
• 6:02
  Speaker 3: yet the Huthis, who also have the ability with Yemen
• 6:05
  Speaker 3: to be able to try and close and choke off
• 6:07
  Speaker 3: the Red Sea, which is what would be a genuine
• 6:09
  Speaker 3: catastrophe for oil returning to llng Roslafan is twenty percent
• 6:15
  Speaker 3: of global leg What's even more important about Roslafan is
• 6:19
  Speaker 3: actually the amount of LNG and gas that it provides
• 6:22
  Speaker 3: to Europe and to Asia. Already, European markets are panicking
• 6:27
  Speaker 3: as of this morning, twenty five percent increase in natural gas.
• 6:31
  Speaker 3: So I saw a British analyst who are predicting genuine
• 6:34
  Speaker 3: catastrophe for their economy. Twenty five hundred pounds they're looking
• 6:37
  Speaker 3: at in terms of their heating bills next winter if
• 6:40
  Speaker 3: things continue.
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: To go on the track that they are.
• 6:42
  Speaker 3: And remember they're not a rich country right Their GDP
• 6:44
  Speaker 3: per capital is like thirty three thousand dollars, so that
• 6:47
  Speaker 3: would be a disaster for the average British household. Pakistan
• 6:51
  Speaker 3: gets the vast majority of its LNG from Qatar. You're
• 6:54
  Speaker 3: going to see rolling blackouts in that country if you
• 6:56
  Speaker 3: continue to see this. The Roslofan facility has had quote
• 7:00
  Speaker 3: extensive damage according to the Katari authorities. Remember I used
• 7:04
  Speaker 3: to live in Doha. I drove past Rostlofan. It's shocking
• 7:08
  Speaker 3: to see the images like this because I know not
• 7:11
  Speaker 3: only the amount of Americans, the amount of investment that
• 7:13
  Speaker 3: went into that.
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: I mean, we're talking about tens of billions.
• 7:16
  Speaker 3: I think the current price tag on Roslofan was seventy billion,
• 7:19
  Speaker 3: and it went up like this in flames. Not to
• 7:22
  Speaker 3: mention that they had an evacuation. Qatar has declared declared
• 7:25
  Speaker 3: force majeure on a ton of its contracts out until April.
• 7:29
  Speaker 3: Taiwan is the number three recipient of Katari LNG Qatar. Also,
• 7:33
  Speaker 3: let's not forget that Rostofan and the facilities around it
• 7:36
  Speaker 3: produced about thirty percent of global helium supply critical to
• 7:39
  Speaker 3: chips manufacturing the Taiwanese economy.
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: This is earth shattering, I mean for all.
• 7:44
  Speaker 2: Without trying to put on a statement say hey, your
• 7:46
  Speaker 2: energy problems will be over if we just.
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: Have a this story exactly.
• 7:49
  Speaker 3: I also would be remiss if I didn't just talk
• 7:51
  Speaker 3: about the climate situation here. What do you think the
• 7:54
  Speaker 3: entire all of Asia is doing right now? Burn and
• 7:57
  Speaker 3: cole They're saying, okay, well we've got it. You gotta
• 8:00
  Speaker 3: have electricity, So what are you going to do? They
• 8:03
  Speaker 3: are going to burn more coal as a result of
• 8:05
  Speaker 3: this this energy crisis than probably at any time in
• 8:08
  Speaker 3: the last twenty years. That's what they're currently turning towards
• 8:11
  Speaker 3: and even with that, we are predicting a massive spike.
• 8:15
  Speaker 3: So here in the United States we're largely insulated from this.
• 8:17
  Speaker 3: For now, we have produced a ton of our own LNG.
• 8:20
  Speaker 3: This is part of the reason for those who are
• 8:22
  Speaker 3: wondering why there is a discrepancy between Brent oil prices
• 8:26
  Speaker 3: and West Texas oil prices. So West Texas oil is
• 8:29
  Speaker 3: not yet at one hundred of barrel. Brent is currently
• 8:31
  Speaker 3: trading around like one hundred and fifteen dollars per barrel.
• 8:33
  Speaker 3: I've had to learn a little bit about the differences,
• 8:36
  Speaker 3: but I don't think we can. We don't think we
• 8:38
  Speaker 3: can adequately explain the consequences of taking this Katari facility
• 8:44
  Speaker 3: and the Red Sea action together to show that genuine
• 8:48
  Speaker 3: oil energy catastrophe is here. It's here now. It's only
• 8:53
  Speaker 3: a question of can we roll any of this back,
• 8:56
  Speaker 3: And considering the initial reaction of the President of the
• 9:00
  Speaker 3: United States and Israeli authorities, I am not optimistic to say.
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: The least well, and that Iran matches their energy, you know,
• 9:07
  Speaker 2: and they're like, okay, you want to ask eight game
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: one where this is our whole goal is to make
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: you suffer and bet that we can withstand more pain
• 9:16
  Speaker 2: than you can. I just want to read our nose
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: analysis here just to underscore the severity of what we
• 9:22
  Speaker 2: are waking up to this morning. He said yesterday, I
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: hate to be the bearer of bad news, but if
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: infrastructure like this and he's talking about the Katari facility
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: specifically gets blown up as of this moment, it will
• 9:34
  Speaker 2: take at least a decade to recover from this war. Already,
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: he's saying, with what's already been done, it will take
• 9:41
  Speaker 2: a decade to recover. And the truth is, the world's
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: energy picture is probably changed forever. This single facility produced
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: roughly twenty percent of global LG supply and as of
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: twenty eleven, had taken seventy billion dollars to build. What
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: makes this even worse is that Iran strike on this
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: was retaliation after Israel attack their South Pars gas field,
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: which draws from the same natural gas reservoir, which is
• 10:06
  Speaker 2: the world's largest reservoir by far. It's about the size
• 10:10
  Speaker 2: of Qatar itself. Heck, on the list of the twenty
• 10:13
  Speaker 2: five largest natural gas fields, this single reservoir holds roughly
• 10:17
  Speaker 2: forty percent of their combined recoverable reserves. It is nearly
• 10:21
  Speaker 2: six times bigger than the second biggest field in the world.
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: Unlike many of the others on the list, it's only
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: at ten percent depletion, meaning ninety percent of the gas
• 10:29
  Speaker 2: is still there, which means that probably for many years,
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: a huge share of the gas from the world's largest
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: reservoir simply will not be extractable. As infrastructure on both
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: sides Qatars and Irons has now been blown up. From
• 10:43
  Speaker 2: a global energy supply perspective, we are deep into worst
• 10:47
  Speaker 2: case scenario. So that is from Arno to your point
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: about the President and the Israelis. So immediately we get
• 10:56
  Speaker 2: the Axios reports. Let's put this up on the screen
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: because you know.
• 10:59
  Speaker 4: The question is.
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: Was Trump down with this right? Was this just the
• 11:03
  Speaker 2: Israelis freelancing? Was this Trump's idea? Was this Israel's idea?
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: Did they work in concert? I mean, you always have
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: to assume they're working in concert hand and glove, but
• 11:13
  Speaker 2: in any case, that was what was given to Axios.
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: Here Israel strikes around natural gas facility in coordination with
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: the US. The Israelis said, basically, yeah, we executed, but
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: were sending an American message. That was their language, that
• 11:25
  Speaker 2: you have to reopen these straight of hormones or else
• 11:28
  Speaker 2: we are going to continue to decimate your domestic energy supply,
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: so they said explicitly. The Israeli officials who spoke to
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: Brock revealed that the strike was coordinated with and approved
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: by the Trump administration, and a US defense official confirmed
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: that as well. So then let's put a to b
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: up on the screen here. So now you have this
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: wild post from Donald Trump, which seems to be a
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: reaction to the fact of him realizing like, oh shit,
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: this thing is escalating out of control and the impact
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: on the economy is going to be devastating. So he says, Israel,
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: out of anger for what has taken place in the
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: Middle East, has violently lashed out at a major facility
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: known as South Pars gas Field in Iran. So here
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: he's shifting the blame to Israel that they lashed out.
• 12:18
  Speaker 2: He says, a relatively small section of the whole has
• 12:21
  Speaker 2: been hit. The US knew nothing about this particular attack,
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: and the country of Qatar was in no way, shape
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: or form involved with it, nor did it have any
• 12:29
  Speaker 2: idea that it was going to happen. He's talking about
• 12:31
  Speaker 2: Quitar because Qatar was the first to get hit aid
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: in response. Unfortunately, Iran did not know this or any
• 12:37
  Speaker 2: of the pertinent facts pertaining in the South Pars attack.
• 12:40
  Speaker 2: An unjustifiably an unfairly attacked a portion of Qatar's LG
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: gas facility. In all caps, no more attacks will be
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: made by Israel pertaining to this extremely important and valuable
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: South Pars field, unless Iran unwisely decides to attack a
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: very innocent in this case Qatar, in which instance, the
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: United States of America or without the help or concent
• 13:01
  Speaker 2: of Israel, will massively blow up the entirety of the
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: South Pars gasfield at an amount of strength and power
• 13:06
  Speaker 2: that Iran has never seen or witnessed before. I do
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: not want to authorize this level of violence and destruction
• 13:12
  Speaker 2: because the long term implications that it will have in
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: the future of Iran. But if Qatar's energy is again attacked,
• 13:17
  Speaker 2: I will not hesitate to do so. Thank you for
• 13:20
  Speaker 2: your attention to this matter of soccer, your thoughts on that.
• 13:22
  Speaker 3: This is the closest evidence that we have right now
• 13:26
  Speaker 3: of a person who is genuinely spiral like this is
• 13:29
  Speaker 3: an actual crisis because the current I mean, look, somebody's
• 13:32
  Speaker 3: lying right. So the US officials who talked to Axios,
• 13:35
  Speaker 3: the Wall Street Journal and the Pentagon and everybody else
• 13:38
  Speaker 3: said that they not only knew for the strike, they
• 13:41
  Speaker 3: basically asked Israel to do it or were okay with
• 13:44
  Speaker 3: it if they had advanced knowledge, which according to them,
• 13:47
  Speaker 3: they did. It's pretty obvious why this happened, because the
• 13:50
  Speaker 3: world freaked out as a result. The Kataris were putting
• 13:53
  Speaker 3: out statements. Obviously at the beginning, this is the thing
• 13:57
  Speaker 3: about Qatar. They expelled those Iranian diplomats.
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: Do you know who?
• 14:00
  Speaker 3: The first person they blamed was Israel. They were like,
• 14:02
  Speaker 3: Israel has unleashed this. They have struck the South bar
• 14:05
  Speaker 3: As gas field. We know that we're going to get
• 14:06
  Speaker 3: struck as a result of this, and now they have
• 14:08
  Speaker 3: brought hell upon the region, descending it all into chaos,
• 14:11
  Speaker 3: destroying our economy, destroying Iranian infrastructure, and showing the or
• 14:16
  Speaker 3: basically leading us farther up the escalation spiral.
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: It's very obvious.
• 14:19
  Speaker 3: And this is what I've talked about with magical thinking,
• 14:22
  Speaker 3: the way that presidents like this who are in a
• 14:25
  Speaker 3: bunker mentality, they are very susceptible to magical thinking of
• 14:30
  Speaker 3: miracle strikes LBJ. This is the classic LBJ model for
• 14:34
  Speaker 3: anybody who's ever read any history. Sir, if we just
• 14:38
  Speaker 3: take out this Vietcong facility, if we just take out
• 14:42
  Speaker 3: this North Vietnamese corridor where the weapons go, then the
• 14:45
  Speaker 3: entire war went.
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: He goes, Okay, let's do it. Roll in thunder right,
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: We're gonna go.
• 14:48
  Speaker 3: We're gonna do this massive operation, and that is going
• 14:51
  Speaker 3: to break the back of the North Vietnamese and of
• 14:54
  Speaker 3: the viet Cong, and then they'll finally surrender. And what
• 14:56
  Speaker 3: ends up always happening is that deepens the existentialism on
• 14:59
  Speaker 3: the other side. They always find a way around it,
• 15:01
  Speaker 3: and then what happens we're deeper into the war. That's
• 15:04
  Speaker 3: exactly what happened with this strike.
• 15:06
  Speaker 2: At least in that instance, it was our own military
• 15:09
  Speaker 2: and intelligence that was pushing I mean, according to not
• 15:12
  Speaker 2: just Joe Kent, we'll get to that later in the show,
• 15:14
  Speaker 2: but Marco Rubio and others. I mean, it is the
• 15:17
  Speaker 2: Israelis who are pushing this direction. I mean, think about
• 15:20
  Speaker 2: how stupid, how absolutely insanely stupid this action by the Israelis.
• 15:26
  Speaker 2: I mean, from a US perfect from their perspective, it's
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: great you know they want the chaos.
• 15:30
  Speaker 4: They're down for all of it.
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: But from our perspective and from a global perspective, like
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: the you know, developing countries around the world, they're going
• 15:36
  Speaker 2: to be the ones who are already suffering the most.
• 15:39
  Speaker 2: It's completely insane. Aron's whole thing is to make us
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: pay economically. The economic warfare is the whole point. They're
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: not shy about. They explain it quite clearly. We need
• 15:49
  Speaker 2: you to feel pain, We need you to understand that
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: we have a choke hold on the global economy.
• 15:54
  Speaker 4: We have a choke hold on these Gulf Arab states.
• 15:57
  Speaker 4: We can destroy their economy.
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: We probably already have destroyed their countries, in large part
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: because nobody's going to be going back to Dubai and
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: thinking the same of it after all that has happened.
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: So you play right into their hands. Yes, it's going
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: to hurt them that this. You know that the South
• 16:11
  Speaker 2: pars Field was damaged. That is going to hurt run,
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: no doubt about it. Who do you think is willing
• 16:18
  Speaker 2: to take more pain the country that is in an
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: existential battle for its life or Americans who don't even
• 16:25
  Speaker 2: want this war to begin with. Who do you think
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: is going to be able to accept more pain, so
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: you have given them the green light. Who can really
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: justifiably complain about Iran striking this oil infrastructure now throughout
• 16:37
  Speaker 2: the region. Of course, Western countries will do so, completely
• 16:41
  Speaker 2: ignoring who started this war, completely ignoring who ignited this
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: round of escalation.
• 16:46
  Speaker 4: But everybody who is.
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: Looking at this nos that it is completely reasonable response,
• 16:51
  Speaker 2: and it was telegraphed and in advance it was utterly,
• 16:54
  Speaker 2: utterly predictable. You knew that when you took this step
• 16:59
  Speaker 2: up the escal ladder how they would respond. And so
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: now you know, you have markets that are following, you
• 17:06
  Speaker 2: have the oil price continuing to go up, and you
• 17:08
  Speaker 2: have really opened Pandora's box. Here we have more reporting
• 17:13
  Speaker 2: about you know what Trump thought about this in advance.
• 17:15
  Speaker 2: Blah blah blah. You can put a three up on
• 17:17
  Speaker 2: the screen. The Wall Street Journal has similar report from
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: Barack Revide saying he wants no more strikes on Iranian
• 17:23
  Speaker 2: energy sites after Israel's Wednesday attack. But Trump did know
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: about the Israeli strike on South Pars and advance supported
• 17:31
  Speaker 2: it as a message to Tehran over its block of
• 17:34
  Speaker 2: the Strait of Hormuz. President believes Iran got the message
• 17:38
  Speaker 2: lappable and is now against attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure.
• 17:42
  Speaker 2: But Trump could once again be open to targeting more
• 17:44
  Speaker 2: Iranian energy facilities depending on Tehran's future actions in the
• 17:48
  Speaker 2: Strategic Waterway. So yeah, so he is scrambling, is concerned
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: about putting boots on the ground, but also has this
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: conundrum of the of hor moves, which are not going
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: to be reopened with and without a major fight. It's
• 18:05
  Speaker 2: going to take more than you know, sending a message
• 18:07
  Speaker 2: through another bombing campaign for that to go in your direction.
• 18:11
  Speaker 2: Someone convinced him, oh, well, this will send him a message.
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: Then they'll really buckle, Then they'll they're going to be
• 18:16
  Speaker 2: able to negotiate with you. Then Steve Witkoff will have
• 18:19
  Speaker 2: his text messages answered or whatever. And so they go
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: forward with this, and of course it only leads to
• 18:24
  Speaker 2: more escalation. Could put a six up on the screen
• 18:28
  Speaker 2: because this speaks to you know, how he's thinking about this,
• 18:31
  Speaker 2: this conflict right now. Apparently there's a consideration of sending
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: Americans in to seize nuclear material, something we had talked
• 18:38
  Speaker 2: about before. Hasn't made up his mind on that yet,
• 18:41
  Speaker 2: Whether he wants to send American forces into Iran to
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: seize that nuclear material.
• 18:46
  Speaker 4: We can also, you.
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: Know, look to There is a report that there are
• 18:50
  Speaker 2: more marines, some five thousand more marines that are being
• 18:54
  Speaker 2: sent to the region as well. They're evaluating options about
• 18:58
  Speaker 2: you know, carg Island.
• 18:59
  Speaker 4: Could we seize that?
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: What can we do to be able to reopen the
• 19:03
  Speaker 2: Strait of Hormus? The UK is in sending any ships,
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: but they are sending some military advisors to help game
• 19:08
  Speaker 2: ount what could possibly be done here. None of these
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: are easy answers, sager whatsoever? None of these things would
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: be easy to accomplish, and all of them would lead
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: to American service members being put at grave, grave risk
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: and in massive numbers.
• 19:22
  Speaker 3: A good friend of mine asked me yesterday, said what's
• 19:24
  Speaker 3: the best case scenario? And I said, the best case
• 19:27
  Speaker 3: scenario is that we leave today, which would mean several things.
• 19:31
  Speaker 3: Number One, the Iranian regime remains totally intact, with a
• 19:35
  Speaker 3: bloodlust and a desire to become North Korea. Yesterday, as in,
• 19:40
  Speaker 3: we will never make a deal with the United States.
• 19:42
  Speaker 3: We don't care about economic sanctions. If our population must
• 19:45
  Speaker 3: be a miserated, starved, and famine.
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: So be it.
• 19:47
  Speaker 3: We will destroy or we will have the capacity to
• 19:52
  Speaker 3: establish a credible deterrent to hit the continental United States.
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: And that is all in.
• 19:56
  Speaker 3: That's all we can possibly do to guarantee their security,
• 20:00
  Speaker 3: and there is no point in negotiating with these people.
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: That's the best case scenario.
• 20:05
  Speaker 3: Because they would maybe temporarily stop and in the interim
• 20:08
  Speaker 3: some oil would flow.
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: Katari LNG Roslafon.
• 20:11
  Speaker 3: God only knows how much time it's going to take
• 20:14
  Speaker 3: to rebuild that facility, to get.
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: The months of oil and LNG and helium and.
• 20:20
  Speaker 3: Fertilizer of the backlog that's already been created back to normal.
• 20:24
  Speaker 3: What we could survive it. We could all survive it.
• 20:25
  Speaker 3: We're a very rich country. We'll be able to support it.
• 20:29
  Speaker 3: The third World everybody's going to suffer as a result,
• 20:31
  Speaker 3: and of course there's all the missile stockpiles, interceptors, etc.
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: That's the best case scenario.
• 20:36
  Speaker 3: The worst case scenario, we're not even close there, but
• 20:39
  Speaker 3: you can see it, and we're we're all starting to
• 20:41
  Speaker 3: see it. Katar LNG, closure of the Red Sea oil
• 20:44
  Speaker 3: at two to three hundred dollars a barrel, a broad
• 20:47
  Speaker 3: export ban here in the United States, lines for even
• 20:51
  Speaker 3: and odd numbers like the Boomers had to live through
• 20:53
  Speaker 3: during the OPEC crisis.
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: That's what that's that's.
• 20:56
  Speaker 3: Really what it's going to look like to eight dollars
• 20:58
  Speaker 3: a gallon, seven eight dollars Allen, ten dollars a gallon
• 21:01
  Speaker 3: in California, no missile interceptors, boots on the ground, boys
• 21:06
  Speaker 3: coming back home in coffins. And by the way, the
• 21:08
  Speaker 3: problem is is that the more of a crisis point
• 21:11
  Speaker 3: that we reach for the US economy, that means the
• 21:13
  Speaker 3: more of an extreme that the President and his team
• 21:15
  Speaker 3: will reach for. Because the amount of courage it would
• 21:18
  Speaker 3: take at this point, courage, cowards, you could call it
• 21:21
  Speaker 3: whatever you want, but I think courage to say we're done.
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: Here, we're done.
• 21:25
  Speaker 3: And yes, Trump made this of his own making, but
• 21:27
  Speaker 3: I promised you if he finally has this, I will
• 21:29
  Speaker 3: give one of those thank you, you know, the most
• 21:31
  Speaker 3: I'll go on Fox News and say this is the
• 21:33
  Speaker 3: most courageous decision and it would be true.
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I do it. I wouldn't really mean most of it,
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: but like I would, I.
• 21:39
  Speaker 3: Would say, Joe if fluff his own ego and to
• 21:40
  Speaker 3: provide the support and all of that that they would need.
• 21:43
  Speaker 3: But that is what it would take, and we from Look,
• 21:45
  Speaker 3: we're going to.
• 21:46
  Speaker 4: Talking about it.
• 21:46
  Speaker 2: Look, it would be the end of his presidency if
• 21:49
  Speaker 2: he did that, and it is also the end of
• 21:51
  Speaker 2: his presidency if he continues exactly.
• 21:53
  Speaker 3: I mean, that's that's where it is, right, might as
• 21:56
  Speaker 3: well fight this is the internal logic.
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: You might as well fight this.
• 21:59
  Speaker 2: Might as well Ambler at the table, I'm already down.
• 22:02
  Speaker 4: I'm in the hole.
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: You know, my you know, my house is going to
• 22:05
  Speaker 2: be taken. I have to put it all in the line.
• 22:07
  Speaker 2: That's the mentality that exists now. And let's say to Sager.
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: Let's say let's say that he does that. Let's say
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: he walks away, you know, even gives the iranis some
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: kind of concession or I will do a little sanctionus
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: reliever something right so that they stop as well. What
• 22:23
  Speaker 2: is going to stop Israel?
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: Nothing?
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: Nothing, And and you're so right, and this is something
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: we've been warning about and we're not the only ones
• 22:30
  Speaker 2: that the logic for Iran.
• 22:33
  Speaker 4: Is to pursue a nuclear weapon, now, you.
• 22:35
  Speaker 2: Know, and you've taken out the guy you killed, the
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: Iotolu dishes.
• 22:37
  Speaker 4: The thought was we're not going to do this.
• 22:39
  Speaker 3: That guy oh gone, just man, that's so, can of
• 22:41
  Speaker 3: let me expound on that. So for example, everyone says, oh,
• 22:44
  Speaker 3: well they never closed it straight before.
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: Because of the Iyahtola. Everything you're told about the Iatola
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: was a lie. He was a cautious, doddering old man.
• 22:53
  Speaker 3: He couldn't commit fully to the nuke and he couldn't
• 22:55
  Speaker 3: commit fully to peace. He had to try and do
• 22:58
  Speaker 3: some looks, he's old, he was eighty nine, right, and
• 23:00
  Speaker 3: we all know somebody like that, they're literally doddering. Well,
• 23:03
  Speaker 3: guess what he's dead now we created him in a martyr.
• 23:06
  Speaker 3: His son literally has got scars on his face and
• 23:08
  Speaker 3: is hiding in a bunker the IRGC people. We have
• 23:11
  Speaker 3: killed every you know lar Jani, we just killed him.
• 23:13
  Speaker 3: Apparently he was Look, he was an asshole. Yeah, he
• 23:16
  Speaker 3: definitely wanted to kill a lot of people. Definitely hated America.
• 23:19
  Speaker 3: Highly educated. You know, his daughter was a professor I
• 23:22
  Speaker 3: think down at.
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: Versity.
• 23:24
  Speaker 3: Okay, until but yeah, right, But my point is just
• 23:28
  Speaker 3: that's who what we That was one side of the ledger.
• 23:31
  Speaker 3: Guess what, he's dead, So who do you have left?
• 23:33
  Speaker 3: At every turn, the modern ilergy ce has said, we
• 23:36
  Speaker 3: cannot negotiate with these people in good faith and Rahani,
• 23:39
  Speaker 3: all of these people. They said, no, we can, Let's
• 23:41
  Speaker 3: avoid the war. And remember I had told it back
• 23:43
  Speaker 3: that decision. He said, oh, let's do diplomacy, let's do this,
• 23:46
  Speaker 3: even though they would still chant dead to America, great state,
• 23:49
  Speaker 3: and all that's over.
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: It's over.
• 23:51
  Speaker 3: The Kim logic, the Kim family's logic is the only
• 23:54
  Speaker 3: logic in the world that makes any sense. And like
• 23:56
  Speaker 3: I said, that's the best case scenario. That's why we
• 23:58
  Speaker 3: should never have done this in the first So now
• 24:00
  Speaker 3: the nightmare.
• 24:01
  Speaker 4: Let's say Trump walks away.
• 24:02
  Speaker 2: Let's say he tacos, he does it, he manages to
• 24:04
  Speaker 2: extricate for the moment. Well, guess what's going to happen
• 24:07
  Speaker 2: down the road. Is girls going to come back and
• 24:08
  Speaker 2: they're going to say they're building.
• 24:09
  Speaker 4: On nuclear wabel, what are you going to do?
• 24:12
  Speaker 2: And this is you know, this is what we warned
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: about with the Twelve Day War, wherever, oh, this was
• 24:17
  Speaker 2: so great and we got in and we got down.
• 24:18
  Speaker 2: You guys were such haters and you didn't understand that,
• 24:21
  Speaker 2: you know, the glory of our president, et cetera, et cetera.
• 24:23
  Speaker 2: What did we warn and again, not just us right.
• 24:26
  Speaker 2: This was many many people who could see the riding
• 24:28
  Speaker 2: on the wall. You have now opened up Pandora's box,
• 24:31
  Speaker 2: and it is almost inevitable that we end up back
• 24:33
  Speaker 2: in a hot war with a run.
• 24:35
  Speaker 4: And that is exactly exactly where we are.
• 24:38
  Speaker 2: And now, yeah, I mean it's it's hard to see
• 24:43
  Speaker 2: how he walks away.
• 24:44
  Speaker 4: It's hard to see how this end.
• 24:46
  Speaker 2: The off ramps are being murdered by the Israelis with
• 24:49
  Speaker 2: the ascent again, I always want to put blame wore
• 24:51
  Speaker 2: belongs with the ascent of Trump.
• 24:52
  Speaker 4: It's not like he objects any of this.
• 24:54
  Speaker 2: He's happy to see, you know, these assassinations, happy to
• 24:56
  Speaker 2: see the escalation, happy to green light it. So so
• 25:00
  Speaker 2: off ramps are literally being murdered. The Iranians have been
• 25:04
  Speaker 2: very clear, we are going to make you pay, and
• 25:08
  Speaker 2: you are going to come to us and beg for
• 25:10
  Speaker 2: mercy and you are going to accept our terms of
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: your defeat. That has been their message. And now where
• 25:19
  Speaker 2: do we go next? I mean, very likely boots on
• 25:21
  Speaker 2: the ground. I think, you know, he's reluctant to do it,
• 25:24
  Speaker 2: but I think that's probably what's going to happen next.
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: And you're going to have a lot more dead service members,
• 25:29
  Speaker 2: God forbid. And you know we're going to continue to
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: have oil prices go up, the global economy crash. I mean,
• 25:36
  Speaker 2: the bottom is it is truly bottomless. How bad things
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: could ultimately get here. Let's go ahead and move on
• 25:44
  Speaker 2: to the next part because it's you know, the economic
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: damage is already showing up, and it's not like the
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: US economy was in a great spot to begin with. Guys,
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: let's put a eight up on the screen. So something
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: Trump has been desperately wanting, as for the Federal Reserve
• 25:58
  Speaker 2: to cut interest rates, Well, guess what, we just had
• 26:01
  Speaker 2: a hot inflation report come in. Now you have oil
• 26:04
  Speaker 2: prices skyrocketing. That is going to not only increase prices
• 26:08
  Speaker 2: at the pump, it's going to increase all prices because
• 26:11
  Speaker 2: that is the way our economy runs on fossil fuels
• 26:14
  Speaker 2: and the reverberating effects. We got a little taste of
• 26:17
  Speaker 2: that during COVID, So it's not too hard to imagine
• 26:20
  Speaker 2: where we are headed with all of this. Not to mention,
• 26:23
  Speaker 2: and again, this is all before we even started this war.
• 26:27
  Speaker 2: Jerome pal says, we effectively have no job creation none.
• 26:31
  Speaker 2: Let's go ahead and take a listen to what he
• 26:32
  Speaker 2: had to say there.
• 26:33
  Speaker 5: But the thing that I think good number of people
• 26:37
  Speaker 5: in the committee are concerned about it is just a
• 26:39
  Speaker 5: very very low level of job creation. If you adjust
• 26:44
  Speaker 5: what has been the trend job creation over the past
• 26:46
  Speaker 5: let's say six months, If you adjust that for what
• 26:49
  Speaker 5: we think our staff thinks is the overstatement due to overcounting, effectively,
• 26:54
  Speaker 5: there's zero net job creation in the private sector. But
• 26:58
  Speaker 5: actually that looks like that's about what the economy needs
• 27:02
  Speaker 5: in terms of dealing with very very low, non existent
• 27:06
  Speaker 5: really growth in the labor force, which of course we've
• 27:08
  Speaker 5: never had in our history. So you've got a sort
• 27:11
  Speaker 5: of a zero employment growth equilibrium. Now that's balance, okay,
• 27:18
  Speaker 5: but you know, I would say it does have a
• 27:21
  Speaker 5: feel of downside risk and it's not kind of a
• 27:24
  Speaker 5: really comfortable balance.
• 27:26
  Speaker 4: So zero net job creation in the private sector.
• 27:30
  Speaker 3: ZEROS is a literal nightmare because this is literally the
• 27:33
  Speaker 3: nineteen seven Does this.
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: Stag oil shock?
• 27:35
  Speaker 3: Yeah, this is stagflation, high inflation, high unemployment, oil energy shock.
• 27:41
  Speaker 3: We lived through it. Take a look at the mortgage
• 27:44
  Speaker 3: rates continue to take up. Take a look at the
• 27:46
  Speaker 3: bond the yields. I mean, for they're climbing as of
• 27:50
  Speaker 3: this morning. And then let's talk about deficit spending. Now,
• 27:54
  Speaker 3: you know me, I'm not a deficit hawk or anything
• 27:56
  Speaker 3: like that, but I do believe in efficient allocation of resources.
• 28:00
  Speaker 3: Let's go ahead and put a ten up here on
• 28:02
  Speaker 3: the screen. Last story from our great friend Jeff Stein
• 28:04
  Speaker 3: for the Washington Post before he begins his new job
• 28:07
  Speaker 3: over at notice.
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: Look at this, guys.
• 28:09
  Speaker 3: The Pentagon has now asked the White House today for
• 28:12
  Speaker 3: a more than two hundred billion dollars supplemental for the
• 28:17
  Speaker 3: Iran War. Some White House aids think Congress moment's support
• 28:21
  Speaker 3: because it is so big it will tee up a
• 28:23
  Speaker 3: giant battle in Congress. Let me remind everyone that the
• 28:26
  Speaker 3: way that they currently think they'd have to pass this
• 28:28
  Speaker 3: is through reconciliation. To do reconciliation, you have to be
• 28:31
  Speaker 3: revenue neutral. To be revenue neutral, you have to cut
• 28:34
  Speaker 3: two hundred billion. That means something two hundred billion dollars.
• 28:36
  Speaker 3: And they've already cut this thing to the bone of
• 28:38
  Speaker 3: discretionary spending of what they've been able to medicaid, snap,
• 28:41
  Speaker 3: et cetera. Well, how are you going to find two
• 28:44
  Speaker 3: hundred billion? Also for all the Doge bros who have
• 28:47
  Speaker 3: come up to me now over the last year and
• 28:49
  Speaker 3: told me that I'm being unfair to Doge, even by
• 28:52
  Speaker 3: Doge's own math, by Doge math, which is like bullshit
• 28:56
  Speaker 3: math we all know.
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: Which is fake dozes Doze's most maximal math.
• 29:00
  Speaker 3: How much do you think they're claiming to save? Two
• 29:03
  Speaker 3: hundred and fifteen billion, so we would net net fifteen
• 29:06
  Speaker 3: and that is if you take their entire all of
• 29:09
  Speaker 3: their claims, everything that they ever said.
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: You can go to doz doc gov right now and
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: you can look at it.
• 29:13
  Speaker 3: Two hundred and fifteen billion, So we would net fifteen
• 29:16
  Speaker 3: billion after you pass this. Now here's I want to
• 29:18
  Speaker 3: prepare everybody for the attack, and they're going to specifically
• 29:21
  Speaker 3: come after people like me. They're going to say, you've
• 29:23
  Speaker 3: been bitching and moaning about interceptor stockpiles. This is what
• 29:25
  Speaker 3: this bill is about, because it is the vast majority
• 29:27
  Speaker 3: of the spending would be to replace many of the
• 29:29
  Speaker 3: munitions that we've just sent. And you know what my
• 29:31
  Speaker 3: logic would be, I am with you one hundred percent.
• 29:34
  Speaker 3: Let's end the war with Iran and then we'll do that.
• 29:37
  Speaker 3: And when we do that, we will make sure that
• 29:40
  Speaker 3: there is a specific language that this will not be
• 29:43
  Speaker 3: used for a war of choice for regime Jay, that
• 29:45
  Speaker 3: it will be congressionally authorized, and that we will be
• 29:49
  Speaker 3: an established, credible defense for the United States and for
• 29:52
  Speaker 3: its allies in a war where the nation itself has
• 29:56
  Speaker 3: been bought into the war. And we agree that this
• 29:59
  Speaker 3: is a proper use of our resources. But in the interim,
• 30:02
  Speaker 3: we will not be gas lit that we need a
• 30:03
  Speaker 3: ton more munitions to continue the war with Iran. The
• 30:06
  Speaker 3: war in Iran is a drain on the munitions, and
• 30:09
  Speaker 3: we're definitely not going to be paying rock Lockheed and
• 30:12
  Speaker 3: raytheon top dollar, you know, beyond top dollar, because what
• 30:16
  Speaker 3: you think, they're not going to gouge the shit out
• 30:17
  Speaker 3: of you whenever they need when you need those weapons
• 30:20
  Speaker 3: the most. No, no, no, no, no, We're not playing
• 30:22
  Speaker 3: this game because this is what they did with Iraq.
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: We got into a quagmire.
• 30:27
  Speaker 3: By the way, you know, this is two years of spending.
• 30:29
  Speaker 3: They've been a rack at Afghanistan. I remember those numbers.
• 30:32
  Speaker 3: The total the total amount that we spent on the
• 30:34
  Speaker 3: Afghan national security courses was one hundred billion. I sat
• 30:38
  Speaker 3: here how many times I sit here and preach against Ukraine.
• 30:40
  Speaker 3: This is more than Ukraine.
• 30:42
  Speaker 4: This is not total.
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: Ukraine is one to eighty.
• 30:44
  Speaker 2: This is not funding for a little excursion, as Trump
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: describes it. This is funding for a long war. So
• 30:51
  Speaker 2: you are being lied to. Not that you're surprised at
• 30:53
  Speaker 2: this point, but when Trump's oh, we already destroyed them,
• 30:56
  Speaker 2: we could declare victory, Dunning point.
• 30:57
  Speaker 4: In fact, we've already won. Love lies.
• 31:01
  Speaker 2: Don't listen to what they say. Look at the actions,
• 31:04
  Speaker 2: Look at the budget request two hundred billion. In to
• 31:08
  Speaker 2: your point about the interceptors, the Pentagon budget is already
• 31:11
  Speaker 2: a trillion dollars. Pass an audit and find some money
• 31:15
  Speaker 2: if you need to replace your minissions like this is insane.
• 31:19
  Speaker 2: Think of all the good that could be done with
• 31:22
  Speaker 2: that money. And instead we want to take this two
• 31:26
  Speaker 2: hundred billion dollars so that we can want bomb more
• 31:28
  Speaker 2: elementary schools and continue to sustain in a legal war
• 31:33
  Speaker 2: that is plunging us into deep economic crisis and potential
• 31:36
  Speaker 2: World War III.
• 31:38
  Speaker 4: That's what we're going to spend our precious tax dollars on.
• 31:41
  Speaker 2: It's absolutely sickening, and you know the talking points that
• 31:45
  Speaker 2: will come out to you got to support the troops
• 31:47
  Speaker 2: and if you don't, you're unpatriotic, blah blah blah.
• 31:51
  Speaker 4: So just wait.
• 31:52
  Speaker 2: But in terms of a political reckoning, can you imagine
• 31:55
  Speaker 2: anything that will be more disgusting to the American people
• 31:58
  Speaker 2: than two hundred billion dollars? And by the way, we're
• 32:01
  Speaker 2: going to pay for it, not by raising taxes on
• 32:03
  Speaker 2: the ridge or the you know, the contractors who are
• 32:06
  Speaker 2: war profiteering like, none of that. It's going to come
• 32:09
  Speaker 2: from your health care. It's going to be levied at
• 32:12
  Speaker 2: the gas pump when you pay more. That's who is
• 32:14
  Speaker 2: actually going to pay and suffer. These people in this
• 32:17
  Speaker 2: country who already pay and suffer the most. And those
• 32:20
  Speaker 2: are also the ones who are sent over, you know,
• 32:22
  Speaker 2: into the.
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: Meat grinder's already starting.
• 32:24
  Speaker 2: We'll put on some ship that's on fire and the toilets.
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: Don't work exactly. Let me read you a quote from
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: this morning.
• 32:28
  Speaker 3: While we're recording this, Pentagon is doing a press conference
• 32:31
  Speaker 3: sectary Hegseth. My thirteen year old son popped in my
• 32:33
  Speaker 3: office last night while I was editing these remarks. He
• 32:35
  Speaker 3: asked about the war and the families I met at Dover.
• 32:38
  Speaker 3: I looked at him and I said, they died for you, son,
• 32:41
  Speaker 3: so your generation doesn't.
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: Have to deal with a nuclear Iran.
• 32:45
  Speaker 3: You could copy and paste that out of what I
• 32:47
  Speaker 3: used to hear in two thousand and three and in
• 32:49
  Speaker 3: two thousand and four in Bush Country. We're back, we
• 32:52
  Speaker 3: are back. That's what they're going to do. You got
• 32:54
  Speaker 3: to support, to support the troops, you got to support
• 32:56
  Speaker 3: the war.
• 32:56
  Speaker 2: I also just have to say, let us not forget
• 33:00
  Speaker 2: we had a nuclear deal with Iran that they were
• 33:03
  Speaker 2: following that the first Trump administration took and tore up.
• 33:07
  Speaker 2: We had new negotiations with the Iranians where they were
• 33:11
  Speaker 2: willing to give even more concessions than they had originally
• 33:15
  Speaker 2: given in those negotiations. And guess what we did after
• 33:18
  Speaker 2: we got that offer diplomatically from them at the table,
• 33:22
  Speaker 2: we bombed them and murdered their leadership. So Pete Hagseth
• 33:25
  Speaker 2: can kindly shut the fuck up with your lies and
• 33:28
  Speaker 2: your deceit.
• 33:29
  Speaker 3: And you know what's even worse is that this, you
• 33:32
  Speaker 3: know what he Elsie said today will be the largest
• 33:34
  Speaker 3: strike on Iran today and just this is the trap.
• 33:37
  Speaker 3: We're going to talk about this, yeah, with Professor Pate,
• 33:40
  Speaker 3: because he literally wrote the book on it. But it's like,
• 33:43
  Speaker 3: you know, and nobody likes I don't. People are like, oh,
• 33:45
  Speaker 3: you must be loving. This is a nightmare. This is
• 33:49
  Speaker 3: a literal nightmare. Yeah, we're a rich country, We're gonna
• 33:53
  Speaker 3: be okay. But everybody else and know, the people who
• 33:57
  Speaker 3: have to fight in this war. The Pentagon said yesterday
• 34:00
  Speaker 3: that they're considering thousands of troops to be sent to
• 34:03
  Speaker 3: the Middle East. There's already fifty thousand, there's twenty five
• 34:05
  Speaker 3: hundred on their way there. You and I could easily
• 34:07
  Speaker 3: see some kakamanie scheme about you know, oh, we got
• 34:10
  Speaker 3: to seize the shoreline, and then once he sees the shoreline,
• 34:12
  Speaker 3: you got to seize the rear.
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: If those guys are going to be attacked.
• 34:15
  Speaker 3: I mean, do you even know the last amphibious assault
• 34:18
  Speaker 3: the United States did under fire?
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: It was the Korean War.
• 34:21
  Speaker 3: It's been adjustment, Douglas MacArthur that anything like that has happened.
• 34:25
  Speaker 3: Just think about it, like, that's the territory that we're
• 34:28
  Speaker 3: currently that's the territory that's currently that we're considering, and
• 34:31
  Speaker 3: that we shouldn't even have to consider it.
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: We should just get out. Two hundred billion.
• 34:35
  Speaker 3: Also, is nothing compared to what will happen if this
• 34:38
  Speaker 3: has to continue on. We spent I don't even know
• 34:40
  Speaker 3: what six trillion in Iraq, a cuff trillion or so
• 34:43
  Speaker 3: in Afghanistan. So two hundred billion, that's just the down payment,
• 34:47
  Speaker 3: not even a downpayment. It's a two percent down payment
• 34:49
  Speaker 3: on what we could be looking at in the future.
• 34:54
  Speaker 3: All right, let's get to oil. You know, it's a disaster.
• 34:58
  Speaker 3: What else can we say? Already you can start to
• 35:00
  Speaker 3: see a lot of the oil markets are really beginning
• 35:03
  Speaker 3: to wake up to what is happening. So let's start
• 35:05
  Speaker 3: first with what's happening here at home. A very viral
• 35:08
  Speaker 3: clip of a woman being interviewed who is Jonathan Allen?
• 35:11
  Speaker 3: Jonathan Allen Over at NBC News asked the three time
• 35:15
  Speaker 3: Trump voter at the pump what she thinks about him.
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: Let's take a listen.
• 35:18
  Speaker 4: If you could say something to President Trumbody was going
• 35:20
  Speaker 4: to hear you right now, what would it be?
• 35:23
  Speaker 5: You're a worthless pile of sh and your voted for him?
• 35:28
  Speaker 6: How many times? Three times?
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: That was my bad?
• 35:32
  Speaker 4: Apparently I'm an idiot.
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: So that's the sentiment. Pennsylvania is that an important state?
• 35:39
  Speaker 2: I forget I got to go back and check my
• 35:41
  Speaker 2: notes on that way.
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: Anyone, remember, Can anyone tell me about Pennsylvania? Anyone want
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: to know?
• 35:45
  Speaker 3: The price of gas today in Pennsylvania three eighty two
• 35:48
  Speaker 3: a gallon. National average right now is three eighty eight.
• 35:51
  Speaker 3: It will be four dollars a gallon probably by the
• 35:54
  Speaker 3: end of the week. Diesel is around five dollars a
• 35:56
  Speaker 3: gallon right now. That's just here in the US. Again,
• 35:59
  Speaker 3: as I say, at globally Japan, many other countries farester
• 36:02
  Speaker 3: passed already four dollars a gallon. Let's continue then for
• 36:06
  Speaker 3: the price of oil. B two guys to go and
• 36:08
  Speaker 3: put that one up there on the screen of the
• 36:11
  Speaker 3: current West Texas crude oil price is about ninety five
• 36:14
  Speaker 3: dollars per barrel, and then the Brent oil price is
• 36:18
  Speaker 3: about one hundred and six dollars a barrel as of
• 36:20
  Speaker 3: this morning. It's actually down a little bit from where
• 36:23
  Speaker 3: it was jumping I think to an eleven year high.
• 36:26
  Speaker 3: Is what somebody was saying here in some of the
• 36:28
  Speaker 3: oil analysis. But what we were watching is basically happen
• 36:33
  Speaker 3: is that oil swored past one hundred and ten dollars
• 36:36
  Speaker 3: has come down.
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: A little bit. This is the Brent oil price.
• 36:39
  Speaker 3: Then the West Texas one, you know, continues to hover
• 36:42
  Speaker 3: right around one hundred dollars per barrel. What is also
• 36:45
  Speaker 3: happening is that gas prices, European gas prices this morning
• 36:49
  Speaker 3: went up to at least twenty five to thirty percent
• 36:53
  Speaker 3: in their spike. So that will be a disaster for
• 36:57
  Speaker 3: a lot of the European economies. And this is just
• 36:59
  Speaker 3: the beginning because remember they were very reliant on Russian gas.
• 37:03
  Speaker 3: Now they're actually trying to buy Russian gas as a result,
• 37:06
  Speaker 3: you know, through a pipeline. Then most of what they
• 37:08
  Speaker 3: did is they booked long term contracts with Qatar. Now
• 37:11
  Speaker 3: the entire Katari facility is offline. God only knows how
• 37:14
  Speaker 3: long you know that's going to continue in the extensive
• 37:17
  Speaker 3: damage that's been suffered. Then you combine what we talked
• 37:20
  Speaker 3: about earlier with the potential strikes in the Red Sea,
• 37:24
  Speaker 3: and then I also think, you know, we have to
• 37:25
  Speaker 3: really figure here on the notion of like global energy
• 37:31
  Speaker 3: markets itself, because we're all we're about two weeks from
• 37:34
  Speaker 3: export banded conversation and I've been you know, looking into
• 37:37
  Speaker 3: the Biden administration floated it and a lot of Americans
• 37:40
  Speaker 3: may fairly say, hey, we are a net export of oil,
• 37:44
  Speaker 3: why don't we just not export it? Why don't we
• 37:46
  Speaker 3: just keep it all here? From what I have learned
• 37:48
  Speaker 3: reading and talking to a lot of the oil experts,
• 37:51
  Speaker 3: even though I would theoretically support and idea like that,
• 37:54
  Speaker 3: you basically don't want to do it because of refinery capacity.
• 37:57
  Speaker 3: So what I've learned is that the oil market, because
• 38:00
  Speaker 3: it was set up to be truly global, is that
• 38:02
  Speaker 3: even though the United States is a net exporter of oil,
• 38:05
  Speaker 3: we are not fully capable of refining all of.
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: The oil that we produce.
• 38:10
  Speaker 3: Various different refineries and various different parts of the region
• 38:13
  Speaker 3: are set up for very specific types of oil, and
• 38:17
  Speaker 3: redoing that would take a long time.
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: It would be incredibly difficult.
• 38:21
  Speaker 3: It would basically break the oil market as we know it.
• 38:24
  Speaker 3: You don't really want to do it unless you are
• 38:26
  Speaker 3: in a World War two like catastrophic total war type
• 38:31
  Speaker 3: of situation. To do it would basically destroy a current
• 38:35
  Speaker 3: global commodities market. It would undermine US oil companies, not
• 38:39
  Speaker 3: that I care that much about US oil companies, but
• 38:41
  Speaker 3: more importantly, it would put immense strain. You would effectively
• 38:46
  Speaker 3: have to nationalize the oil industry at that point with
• 38:48
  Speaker 3: an export band, try and get some private partnership, and
• 38:51
  Speaker 3: in the interim, the prices would just go sky high
• 38:53
  Speaker 3: because of refinery capacity, could have total shortages.
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: I think we're not that far away from an oil exports.
• 39:00
  Speaker 2: Especially in the short term, doesn't really solve the problem
• 39:03
  Speaker 2: because the refineries here are already pretty much maxed out
• 39:05
  Speaker 2: with regard to domestic crude. Our allies would be totally
• 39:11
  Speaker 2: fucked throughout the world Europe, Asia, etc. So, you know,
• 39:16
  Speaker 2: in terms of their appetite to right now, it's not
• 39:18
  Speaker 2: like they're like super excited about this war. But they're
• 39:21
  Speaker 2: not overtly like you have to stop this, and we're
• 39:23
  Speaker 2: you know, and doing whatever they can to get us
• 39:26
  Speaker 2: to stop. If we did an export band, then you
• 39:28
  Speaker 2: would very quickly get to that place because they would
• 39:31
  Speaker 2: be so screwed domestically. Like I said, it doesn't really
• 39:35
  Speaker 2: solve the problem because you don't have the refinery capacity,
• 39:38
  Speaker 2: so prices will continue to go up here in terms
• 39:42
  Speaker 2: of our domestic oil production.
• 39:44
  Speaker 4: You know, Trump, he tried was.
• 39:46
  Speaker 2: Trying to say drill, baby, drill the other day and
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: since study said dig we must, but anyway, dig we must.
• 39:51
  Speaker 4: Is his policy.
• 39:53
  Speaker 2: Well, how motivated do you think oil companies are going
• 39:55
  Speaker 2: to be to dig when they have this massive constraint
• 39:59
  Speaker 2: on their ability to export this oil capacity? So they're
• 40:04
  Speaker 2: going to cut back on their you know, their drilling
• 40:07
  Speaker 2: and their you know, their extraction activities. So yeah, then
• 40:11
  Speaker 2: I guess the next move is you nationalize them. Okay,
• 40:14
  Speaker 2: I'd be okay with that, but so that you you know,
• 40:17
  Speaker 2: you get to force them and compel them. But I mean,
• 40:19
  Speaker 2: we're just in we're in wild territory there. And then
• 40:22
  Speaker 2: again to the core point, it creates a whole bunch
• 40:24
  Speaker 2: of problems in the world and does not really solve
• 40:27
  Speaker 2: the problem here. But I think you're right that we
• 40:29
  Speaker 2: I'm sure those conversations are already happening in the White House,
• 40:32
  Speaker 2: There's no doubt about it. And Trump has already taken
• 40:35
  Speaker 2: some actions recognizing, you know what a big problem this
• 40:39
  Speaker 2: is for him. We can put before up on the screen.
• 40:41
  Speaker 2: So he's issuing some waivers for the the Jones Act.
• 40:47
  Speaker 2: This is a little bit esoteric. We've talked about it
• 40:49
  Speaker 2: here before, but basically, the idea of the Jones Act
• 40:51
  Speaker 2: is you have to use US ships in order to
• 40:56
  Speaker 2: you know, in order to uh exactly, yeah, entr US transit,
• 41:01
  Speaker 2: and so this was meant to bolster the US shipbuilding
• 41:06
  Speaker 2: domestic shipbuilding capacity. It hasn't really worked, but it still
• 41:09
  Speaker 2: has a lot of supporters in Congress, and it is
• 41:11
  Speaker 2: the way things are set up. So they are issuing
• 41:14
  Speaker 2: these waivers specifically for they say, vital research like oil,
• 41:17
  Speaker 2: natural gas, fertilizer, and coal to flow freely to US
• 41:19
  Speaker 2: sports for sixty days. Again, the analysis I saw soccer
• 41:23
  Speaker 2: is this is probably not going to make that much
• 41:24
  Speaker 2: of a difference because we just don't even have that
• 41:26
  Speaker 2: many of these you know, US ships that could you know,
• 41:30
  Speaker 2: could do this.
• 41:30
  Speaker 3: Work and foreign flag It's complicated, but basically, look, the
• 41:34
  Speaker 3: Jones Act is one of those wonk things that people
• 41:36
  Speaker 3: like Ezra Cline and them involved and obsessed with for
• 41:38
  Speaker 3: like ten years, and.
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: I sympathize, I actually do get it.
• 41:41
  Speaker 3: It's one of the only areas of protectionism where it's like, yeah,
• 41:44
  Speaker 3: thosen't really.
• 41:44
  Speaker 2: Well, it hasn't really worked, just because our shipbuilding is
• 41:47
  Speaker 2: so much more expensive than like, you know, China.
• 41:50
  Speaker 3: Really screws over California and Hawaii. Hawaii especially they get
• 41:54
  Speaker 3: destroyed by the Jones Act. But the point beyond like above,
• 41:58
  Speaker 3: is where our grassmen is strung. You want to know
• 42:00
  Speaker 3: what the Secretary of the Treasury said just this morning.
• 42:03
  Speaker 3: They are floating lifting sanctions on Iranian oil that is
• 42:07
  Speaker 3: currently at sea, just to pump more oil into the system.
• 42:10
  Speaker 3: So the imagine, imagine you're at war with Nazi Germany,
• 42:14
  Speaker 3: all right, the Nazis had a lot of oil. The
• 42:16
  Speaker 3: Nazis have oil and sea. You're so worried about energy prices.
• 42:19
  Speaker 3: You're like, you know what we're gonna do. We're gonna
• 42:21
  Speaker 3: let who's in neutral country, Switzerland something like that. We're
• 42:23
  Speaker 3: gonna let say Switzerland go ahead and just buy.
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: Then.
• 42:26
  Speaker 3: That is how screwed the oil market is. That's how
• 42:29
  Speaker 3: bad things are also for the Kremlin. Just so everybody understands,
• 42:32
  Speaker 3: the I think India yesterday just purchased like thirty million
• 42:36
  Speaker 3: dollars thirty million barrels of oil from Russia which was
• 42:39
  Speaker 3: all just floating at sea. They are floating more oil
• 42:42
  Speaker 3: sanctions relief. The Kremlin is rubbing their hands together like
• 42:45
  Speaker 3: that they haven't made this much money in years. You
• 42:48
  Speaker 3: already have the geopolitical situation on the continent, changing the
• 42:51
  Speaker 3: Belgian Prime Minister being like, listen, maybe we just got
• 42:53
  Speaker 3: our normalized relations with Russia.
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: I don't really see a way around it.
• 42:56
  Speaker 3: So, you know, for all the neocons who cared so
• 42:59
  Speaker 3: much about you, congratulations, you just bought the Russians five
• 43:03
  Speaker 3: six more years on the front to be able to
• 43:05
  Speaker 3: pay all the people who are currently fighting.
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: That's kind of a disaster.
• 43:08
  Speaker 3: Allegedly, we also should not rule out the immense variance
• 43:13
  Speaker 3: that's happening in the oil market. So for example, let's
• 43:16
  Speaker 3: put B five up here on the screen. This was
• 43:19
  Speaker 3: a very this is this is one of these analysts
• 43:22
  Speaker 3: who I follow.
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: He said.
• 43:23
  Speaker 3: The current spot price for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel
• 43:27
  Speaker 3: on the West Coast appear unhinged at one hundred and
• 43:30
  Speaker 3: forty seven dollars a barrel, one hundred and sixty two
• 43:32
  Speaker 3: dollars a barrel, and one hundred and eighty six dollars
• 43:35
  Speaker 3: a barrel, until one considers that refiners in China, India, Japan,
• 43:39
  Speaker 3: and South Korea face physical crude costs the top one
• 43:43
  Speaker 3: hundred and fifty to one hundred and fifty five.
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: Basically, what a.
• 43:46
  Speaker 3: Lot of these oil traders have been talking about is
• 43:48
  Speaker 3: about the actual physical price and then the future price,
• 43:51
  Speaker 3: which is what we're all looking at right with the
• 43:53
  Speaker 3: crude oil futures, et cetera. So if the physical price
• 43:56
  Speaker 3: is now currently trading at one hundred and fifty dollars
• 43:58
  Speaker 3: per barrel, the expectation is that without any change, is
• 44:01
  Speaker 3: that the current is that the future price will catch
• 44:04
  Speaker 3: up with what the actual physical price is trading at.
• 44:06
  Speaker 3: And again, just to put things in perspective, one hundred
• 44:09
  Speaker 3: and fifty a barrel, I mean it's roughly five fifty
• 44:13
  Speaker 3: six dollars a gallon nationally something like that. You know,
• 44:16
  Speaker 3: depending on where you live. That's a catastrophic. The highest
• 44:20
  Speaker 3: price reached under Biden was five h five and that
• 44:22
  Speaker 3: was a nightmare. I mean, I know you remember that
• 44:25
  Speaker 3: as well. Consumers were getting nuked by that one. And
• 44:28
  Speaker 3: the Biden administration they tried everything, what did they say,
• 44:31
  Speaker 3: Putin's price hike.
• 44:33
  Speaker 2: Well, and they also tried we had like more in
• 44:35
  Speaker 2: the strategic patrol in the reserve at that point too,
• 44:38
  Speaker 2: we had room to wiggle, you know, wiggle.
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: Rooms and SPR release.
• 44:41
  Speaker 3: I think after that we've already done the SPR release
• 44:44
  Speaker 3: and that's you know, so the market is taking that
• 44:46
  Speaker 3: into consideration. I just I think everybody really should prepare
• 44:49
  Speaker 3: for for future, like especially if these attacks continue, which
• 44:53
  Speaker 3: we should take the secretary at his word, today will
• 44:57
  Speaker 3: be the biggest day of strikes.
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: He basically says that every day.
• 45:00
  Speaker 6: I don't know.
• 45:00
  Speaker 3: But if he said today will be the biggest day
• 45:02
  Speaker 3: of strikes on iron, let's take the man at his word.
• 45:05
  Speaker 3: What does that mean? What are you striking in conjunction
• 45:08
  Speaker 3: with the Israelis? Maybe they learn their lesson not to
• 45:11
  Speaker 3: hit the gas or the South Paris gas field. Are
• 45:14
  Speaker 3: you going to hit other oil refineries or do we
• 45:16
  Speaker 3: have any real expectation these railies are going to fight
• 45:19
  Speaker 3: that way? I mean, we are in a genuine crunch,
• 45:21
  Speaker 3: and I think global the goal.
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: If we have a global.
• 45:24
  Speaker 3: Depression, it will begin in Asia because they are so
• 45:28
  Speaker 3: so heavily reliant on Middle Eastern oil and on Middle
• 45:33
  Speaker 3: Eastern gas.
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: The Chinese are going to be okay.
• 45:35
  Speaker 3: They have an immense amount of capacity of strategic reserve.
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: They've planned for things like this.
• 45:41
  Speaker 4: They have their own domestic have their.
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: Own domestic capacity, They have soul.
• 45:44
  Speaker 3: They have, by the way, no compunction about burning as
• 45:47
  Speaker 3: much coal or any of that.
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: If that they need to.
• 45:49
  Speaker 3: They will be fine and they will start to think
• 45:51
  Speaker 3: about it. The countries that will really suffer who also
• 45:54
  Speaker 3: will be fair to them. They have their own reserves
• 45:55
  Speaker 3: and they plan for this, but they're more reliant on
• 45:58
  Speaker 3: US Japan and South Korea. South Korea is a number
• 46:00
  Speaker 3: two buyer of Katari LNG. The Japanese Prime Minister, she's
• 46:04
  Speaker 3: here in Washington today, her entire meeting. Their whole meeting
• 46:08
  Speaker 3: with them, which was planned months in advance, was only
• 46:10
  Speaker 3: supposed to be about trade and our trade agreement and
• 46:14
  Speaker 3: what that was all going to look like. The whole
• 46:16
  Speaker 3: thing is now about Iran and Trump berating her for
• 46:19
  Speaker 3: being not sending their limited navy to the Straits of
• 46:22
  Speaker 3: horror moves. I mean, their economy is seriously is very precarious.
• 46:27
  Speaker 3: They've only got two hundred days or so of oil
• 46:29
  Speaker 3: that's in their strategic reserve.
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: They're going to have to be buying an immense price.
• 46:33
  Speaker 3: I checked yesterday the front page of the Yomiri Shudn't
• 46:36
  Speaker 3: Boon and it was like four fifteen or something a
• 46:39
  Speaker 3: gallon and leader price. It's a major it's the biggest
• 46:41
  Speaker 3: story in Japan that's happening right now. So like and
• 46:44
  Speaker 3: that's our number three trading partner. Like this is these
• 46:46
  Speaker 3: are the most important allies in the world, Japan and
• 46:49
  Speaker 3: South Korea.
• 46:49
  Speaker 2: Hegseth said that the European should be telling us thank
• 46:52
  Speaker 2: you this morning. I'm sure they're feeling really grateful for
• 46:55
  Speaker 2: the fact that we've completely once again destabilized their countries
• 46:58
  Speaker 2: and upended their economies. One more update on mister Hagsatz
• 47:02
  Speaker 2: and his briefing this morning. So we were talking earlier
• 47:06
  Speaker 2: about how Jeff Stein reported the request to Congress was
• 47:09
  Speaker 2: likely to be two hundred billion dollars. Well, he says
• 47:13
  Speaker 2: that's actually the that's like the low end. He says,
• 47:16
  Speaker 2: we're going back to Congress and our folks that'd ensure
• 47:18
  Speaker 2: we're properly funded. Quote, it takes money to kill bad guys.
• 47:23
  Speaker 2: And he said that that war funding request quote could move,
• 47:27
  Speaker 2: meaning it's it's not moving down, guys, it's only moving
• 47:30
  Speaker 2: in one direction.
• 47:31
  Speaker 4: So two hundred.
• 47:32
  Speaker 2: Billion dollars, I guess is the optimistic estimate of what
• 47:35
  Speaker 2: they're going to be asking Congress for. I mean, this
• 47:38
  Speaker 2: is just this is just a what else can you say?
• 47:40
  Speaker 2: It's an utter catastrophe.
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: You have two hundred Bill.
• 47:43
  Speaker 3: I mean, this is this is how it starts, this
• 47:45
  Speaker 3: is why you don't get into these situations in.
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: The first place. And the logic of it all.
• 47:50
  Speaker 3: It's so I'm so excited to talk to not excited,
• 47:52
  Speaker 3: but in a way depressed to talk to Professor Piate
• 47:55
  Speaker 3: because his framework and logic and steps, it all makes sense.
• 48:00
  Speaker 3: And once you can put that framework and evaluate events
• 48:04
  Speaker 3: through that, you're going to see exactly where things are going.
• 48:07
  Speaker 3: And that's why, oh panic in catastrophe. I remember so
• 48:12
  Speaker 3: Rory had a tweet on I think maybe day three
• 48:15
  Speaker 3: four and he said Oil is going to two hundred
• 48:17
  Speaker 3: dollars a barrel if the straits of horn Moves are closed,
• 48:20
  Speaker 3: and you know, people ridiculed him, They ridiculed me and
• 48:23
  Speaker 3: us whenever we had him here on the show. I
• 48:25
  Speaker 3: actually got multiple messages because Oil dropped a little bit
• 48:28
  Speaker 3: after that, and I said, did you not read it?
• 48:30
  Speaker 3: He said, if it remains closed for a prolonged period,
• 48:33
  Speaker 3: He's right, look at where things are currently trending. He
• 48:35
  Speaker 3: was totally vindicated on what that happened. So the initial
• 48:38
  Speaker 3: expectations of every single one of these people that were saying, listen,
• 48:42
  Speaker 3: this goes on more than three weeks. We're here now,
• 48:45
  Speaker 3: what is it, day nineteen, It's day nineteen the war.
• 48:47
  Speaker 3: We got two more days and we're at three weeks.
• 48:49
  Speaker 3: Nobody thinks that this is going to end. All of
• 48:51
  Speaker 3: those initial weeks conversations. They were correct, and that was
• 48:54
  Speaker 3: with the best case that they were laying out. We
• 48:57
  Speaker 3: already know that we're not in the best case scenario rendering.
• 49:00
  Speaker 3: There's no evidence whatsoever. Yesterday the Iranians actually fired more
• 49:04
  Speaker 3: missiles than they have in a long time, in like
• 49:07
  Speaker 3: two or three weeks.
• 49:08
  Speaker 2: And the penetration rate appears to be penetration hire well,
• 49:11
  Speaker 2: because they're running out.
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: The sympto interceptors are running out.
• 49:14
  Speaker 3: Oh shocking, we're getting I mean the Raslafon gas field.
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: Does nobody think about this Qatar?
• 49:20
  Speaker 3: There's ten thousand US troops station of that base at
• 49:23
  Speaker 3: the Aladid Air Force Base. We're supposed to have a
• 49:25
  Speaker 3: ton of air defense. Nobody thought that this was going
• 49:28
  Speaker 3: to be a target. You can't shoot it down.
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: What happened.
• 49:30
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a seriously serious, a serious problem which apparently
• 49:33
  Speaker 3: nobody's even talking about. We weren't even able to shoot
• 49:36
  Speaker 3: it down. What a nightmare?
• 49:37
  Speaker 2: Not to mention one of our carriers having a limp
• 49:39
  Speaker 2: back to create for repairs because of the fire, which
• 49:43
  Speaker 2: they're also investigating whether crew members actually set that fire
• 49:47
  Speaker 2: because they were so desperate to get off of the ship.
• 49:49
  Speaker 4: Yeah, you didn't see that.
• 49:50
  Speaker 2: I mean, that's that's one possibility, and other possibilities were
• 49:52
  Speaker 2: being lied to about the source of fire. In any case,
• 49:55
  Speaker 2: whatever actually happened there, you know, it's being removed from
• 49:59
  Speaker 2: the region because has to go and undergo repairs. You know,
• 50:03
  Speaker 2: the other carrier thats in the region, you know, they
• 50:05
  Speaker 2: have to stay a good distance away because they are
• 50:07
  Speaker 2: worried about Iranian's Iranian attacks and being able to actually
• 50:11
  Speaker 2: strike them. So in any case, the landscape is pretty
• 50:16
  Speaker 2: dire here. And none of this was difficult to anticipate.
• 50:19
  Speaker 2: None of it was difficult to anticipate at all. But
• 50:22
  Speaker 2: you know, you had a president who decided that you know,
• 50:25
  Speaker 2: he was he knew better and just chose who he
• 50:28
  Speaker 2: wanted to listen to. He decided he liked the line,
• 50:31
  Speaker 2: he liked the lies that the Israelis were giving him,
• 50:33
  Speaker 2: and effectively continues to follow their lead based on what
• 50:36
  Speaker 2: we're saying in the battlefield.
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: Yeah, there you go. All right, we've have Professor John
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: Meihersheimer standing by. Let's get to it.
• 50:44
  Speaker 3: Joining us now is Professor John Meihersheimer, the University of Chicago,
• 50:47
  Speaker 3: great friend of the show. We're honored always to speak
• 50:49
  Speaker 3: to him. Thank you very much for joining.
• 50:50
  Speaker 6: Us, sir, my pleasure to be here.
• 50:53
  Speaker 3: So, professor, we haven't been able to speak with you
• 50:55
  Speaker 3: since the outbreak of the conflict. We have been reading
• 50:58
  Speaker 3: quite a bit and looking at realist scholars. First, we've
• 51:02
  Speaker 3: seen this piece from Foreign Affairs. Let's put this up
• 51:05
  Speaker 3: here on the screen. Curious for your reaction. He says,
• 51:08
  Speaker 3: how America's war on Iran backfired and Tehran will now
• 51:12
  Speaker 3: set the terms for peace. Your general reaction not only
• 51:17
  Speaker 3: to the war as where we are stand now, but
• 51:19
  Speaker 3: how if any way that this actual conflict could come
• 51:22
  Speaker 3: to a close.
• 51:24
  Speaker 6: Well, I think that starting this war was a colossal mistake.
• 51:29
  Speaker 6: And it's hard to believe that President Trump did this,
• 51:34
  Speaker 6: not simply because he had promised that he would not
• 51:37
  Speaker 6: start any more wars and certainly not get us into
• 51:40
  Speaker 6: a forever war. But if you're going to go to war,
• 51:43
  Speaker 6: this is the last war that you want to start,
• 51:46
  Speaker 6: and the reason is that the Iranians hold most of
• 51:49
  Speaker 6: the cards. If you think about where we are today
• 51:53
  Speaker 6: and you think more importantly about further marching up the
• 51:57
  Speaker 6: escalation ladder can do enormous damage to the international economy,
• 52:04
  Speaker 6: and there's nothing much we can do to prevent that.
• 52:08
  Speaker 6: So we're in a precarious situation right now, and I
• 52:11
  Speaker 6: would argue we don't have an exit ram, but as
• 52:14
  Speaker 6: we move forward, things only get worse.
• 52:16
  Speaker 2: We've been talking a lot this morning on the Israelian
• 52:20
  Speaker 2: US attacks on the South Pars gas field in Iran
• 52:23
  Speaker 2: and then Iranian retaliation both in Saudi and Kuwait and
• 52:27
  Speaker 2: in Qatar. What do you make of the significance of
• 52:30
  Speaker 2: these developments in this escalation.
• 52:33
  Speaker 6: I think it's hugely significant. And I think the fact
• 52:37
  Speaker 6: that President Trump issued this post where he made it
• 52:42
  Speaker 6: clear how angry he was at the Israelis for doing this,
• 52:47
  Speaker 6: is evidence of that. Look, President Trump is doing everything
• 52:51
  Speaker 6: he can to keep oil prices under one hundred dollars
• 52:55
  Speaker 6: at barrel, and that is not easy to do. And
• 53:01
  Speaker 6: I would note that he has taken sanctions off Russian
• 53:05
  Speaker 6: oil and he has allowed Iran to sell its oil.
• 53:10
  Speaker 6: It's very important to understand that Iran is selling its
• 53:13
  Speaker 6: oil on world markets. Iran has been allowed to send
• 53:17
  Speaker 6: oil through the Strait of Hormuz, and the reason that
• 53:20
  Speaker 6: Trump is allowing this is because he wants all the
• 53:23
  Speaker 6: oil he can possibly get in the world oil markets.
• 53:29
  Speaker 6: And he's been quite successful at least at keeping the
• 53:33
  Speaker 6: price of a barrel down under slightly less than one
• 53:38
  Speaker 6: hundred dollars. Well, what happened yesterday when the Israelis hit
• 53:43
  Speaker 6: this natural gas field in Iran and then the Iranians
• 53:50
  Speaker 6: retaliated first against Cutter and now apparently they're attacking Saudi
• 53:55
  Speaker 6: Arabian sites as well. Is that the price of a
• 53:58
  Speaker 6: barrel of oil is going I saw it was up
• 54:01
  Speaker 6: around one hundred and fifteen dollars this morning. This is
• 54:05
  Speaker 6: disastrous for the United States and for the world economy.
• 54:09
  Speaker 6: And if things continue to escalate, which is a real possibility,
• 54:13
  Speaker 6: the economic situation will only get worse. So what happened
• 54:18
  Speaker 6: yesterday really mattered, and that again is why President Trump
• 54:22
  Speaker 6: made it clear to the Israelies don't ever do this again.
• 54:26
  Speaker 3: Well, professor, what do you think the best and worst
• 54:28
  Speaker 3: case scenarios are at this point?
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: Start with the best.
• 54:31
  Speaker 6: The best case is that we work out some sort
• 54:34
  Speaker 6: of negotiated settlement. But I don't see how you can
• 54:36
  Speaker 6: do that. The fact is that to get Iran to
• 54:41
  Speaker 6: stop the war, you have to make major concessions to
• 54:45
  Speaker 6: the Iranians, and I find it hard to imagine the
• 54:48
  Speaker 6: United States and Israel making the sort of concessions that
• 54:53
  Speaker 6: are necessary to get Iran to stop. So I see
• 54:57
  Speaker 6: the war going on. In the worst case scenario is
• 55:00
  Speaker 6: that you continue to march up the escalation ladder, and
• 55:04
  Speaker 6: the consequences for the international economy are devastating. And you know,
• 55:09
  Speaker 6: we were just talking about oil, but it's not only oil.
• 55:12
  Speaker 6: One third of the world's fertilizer comes through the strait
• 55:16
  Speaker 6: of Hormuze, and it's quite clear that what's happening is
• 55:21
  Speaker 6: that without fertilizer, farmers all around the world, including in
• 55:26
  Speaker 6: the United States, are beginning to have major problems planting
• 55:32
  Speaker 6: and harvesting food. And what this means for the future
• 55:35
  Speaker 6: is that the price of food is going to go up.
• 55:37
  Speaker 6: So not only is the price of gas going to
• 55:39
  Speaker 6: go up and the price of oil going to go up,
• 55:41
  Speaker 6: but the price of food is going to go up,
• 55:43
  Speaker 6: and this is going to create major League inflation, which
• 55:46
  Speaker 6: is going to slow down growth and result in the
• 55:48
  Speaker 6: deaths of many people all around the world. So the
• 55:53
  Speaker 6: potential for disaster here is just not to be underestimated.
• 55:56
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 55:57
  Speaker 2: Well, and to your point about the unlikelihood of negotiated settlement,
• 56:01
  Speaker 2: not only do you have the Iranians that are like, no,
• 56:04
  Speaker 2: you haven't experienced enough paid yet, so we would demand
• 56:07
  Speaker 2: significant concessions in order to come to the table. At
• 56:10
  Speaker 2: this point, they don't seem interested in talking right.
• 56:12
  Speaker 4: Now at all.
• 56:13
  Speaker 2: You also have the Israelis that want the thing to
• 56:15
  Speaker 2: keep going. I wanted to get your reaction specifically to
• 56:18
  Speaker 2: the assassination of Ali Larjani. There's been a lot of
• 56:21
  Speaker 2: speculation that the Israelis are effectively trying to make sure
• 56:25
  Speaker 2: that any potential off ramps are taken off the table,
• 56:28
  Speaker 2: that anyone who could have been an interlocutor, could have
• 56:31
  Speaker 2: been a negotiator, is assassinated, so they are no longer available.
• 56:34
  Speaker 2: That you have more hardliners who are in place within
• 56:37
  Speaker 2: the Iranian government, I wonder if that's your assessment as well.
• 56:40
  Speaker 6: It certainly looks like that. I mean, anybody who is
• 56:45
  Speaker 6: moderate inside of the Israeli government.
• 56:48
  Speaker 4: Is taken out, but the Iranian government excuse me.
• 56:52
  Speaker 6: The Iranian government is taken out. But I think it's
• 56:55
  Speaker 6: quite clear that more generally, the Israelis have this theory
• 57:00
  Speaker 6: that if they can decapitate the regime, that's a quick
• 57:03
  Speaker 6: way to victory, and this is a fallacious strategy. It
• 57:08
  Speaker 6: just doesn't work. So the idea that they can kill
• 57:12
  Speaker 6: Iranian leaders and that's going to bring the war to
• 57:14
  Speaker 6: an end is not a smart idea. And again, I
• 57:18
  Speaker 6: think you're right that what the Israelis are trying to
• 57:21
  Speaker 6: do also is take out the moderates and see them
• 57:26
  Speaker 6: replaced by more hardliners, making it more difficult to get
• 57:30
  Speaker 6: a negotiated settlement. But I would argue Crystal that no
• 57:33
  Speaker 6: matter who's in charge in Iran, it's hard to see
• 57:36
  Speaker 6: how you get a deal. And the reason is that
• 57:38
  Speaker 6: we would have to make major league concessions to the
• 57:42
  Speaker 6: Iranians to put an end to this war, and that
• 57:45
  Speaker 6: would involve things like ending sanctions, or taking at least
• 57:50
  Speaker 6: most of the sanctions off the table, maybe paying reparitions,
• 57:55
  Speaker 6: and also just working out a deal where Iran is
• 58:00
  Speaker 6: guaranteed that it won't be attacked in another six months.
• 58:04
  Speaker 6: You want to remember that there was a war in
• 58:06
  Speaker 6: June where Israel in the United States attacked Iran, and
• 58:10
  Speaker 6: here we are not even a year later, and we're
• 58:14
  Speaker 6: back at it. The Iranians want this to be the
• 58:17
  Speaker 6: last attacked by is Real in the United States, so
• 58:20
  Speaker 6: we'd have to give them some sort of guarantees. I
• 58:23
  Speaker 6: find it hard to imagine the United States and is
• 58:26
  Speaker 6: Real doing that.
• 58:27
  Speaker 3: Right, you know, Professor, what do you also make now
• 58:30
  Speaker 3: of US alliances? And so I've been talking at nauseum
• 58:33
  Speaker 3: here on the show about the punishment that we're giving
• 58:35
  Speaker 3: to the Japanese, the South Korean, the Taiwanese economies, about
• 58:39
  Speaker 3: the GCC nations which are projected to contract fourteen fifteen percent.
• 58:44
  Speaker 6: Qatar.
• 58:45
  Speaker 3: Now, I mean, there's literal lifeblood is natural gas. Who
• 58:48
  Speaker 3: knows how long it will take to rebuild their own facilities.
• 58:52
  Speaker 3: Even if the war were to end today, and we
• 58:54
  Speaker 3: magically gave them sanctions, relief and somehow miraculously convinced them
• 58:59
  Speaker 3: not to pursue nuclear weapon, which I think they would
• 59:01
  Speaker 3: probably want to do at this point. Let's say all
• 59:04
  Speaker 3: of that happened, if everything ends today, what are the
• 59:07
  Speaker 3: state and strategic logic of actual US alliances which are
• 59:12
  Speaker 3: far more important to the US than Israel.
• 59:13
  Speaker 1: After this war, well.
• 59:15
  Speaker 6: We've done significant damages to our allies around the world.
• 59:19
  Speaker 6: There's just no question about that. If you look at
• 59:22
  Speaker 6: what's happening in Japan and in India and in South Korea,
• 59:28
  Speaker 6: this is disastrous. And the same thing is true with
• 59:31
  Speaker 6: regard to Europe. By the way, there have been all
• 59:33
  Speaker 6: sorts of reports that instability is returning to Iraq, that
• 59:39
  Speaker 6: the Iran war is spilling over into Iraq. We could
• 59:45
  Speaker 6: go on and on. I mean, the negative consequences of
• 59:48
  Speaker 6: this war are extensive, and the fact is we're not
• 59:52
  Speaker 6: going to get a negotiated settlement anytime soon. This war
• 59:57
  Speaker 6: is going to go on, and the Iranians, of course,
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 6: have a vested interest in keeping it going until the
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 6: United States is willing to make the concessions that they demand.
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 4: Let's go and put see four up on the screen here.
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 2: Israel has also used this as an opportunity to it appears,
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 2: annex additional territory in Lebanon, certainly to attack within Lebanon.
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 2: Here they are, you know, downing a complete apartment building
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 2: in central bea route they you know, are just also
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 2: warning residents, saying that they want to remove them permanently
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 2: from portions of south Lebanon. Here's another image of the
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 2: apartment building being destroyed and demolished in the middle of
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 2: a major city here. So, can you talk to us
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 2: about some of Israel's larger goals and what they're up to,
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 2: not only in Lebanon and West Bank in Gaza, and
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 2: what the project is.
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 6: Well, the Israelis, I think have two goals in Lebanon,
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 6: one which is to permanently defang has Belah, and then two,
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 6: I think they want to control all of the territory
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 6: in southern Lebanon up to the Latani River. Before this
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 6: war started on February twenty eighth, the conventional wisdom in
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 6: the West was that Hesballah had been defanged and was
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 6: no longer a serious threat to Israel. Well, we've been
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 6: watching hes lobb missiles into northern Israel, lob rockets into
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 6: northern Israel, and all the evidence is that Hesblah is
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 6: very much alive. I would also note to you that
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 6: the Iranians are coordinating with Hesbelah according to all the
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 6: reports I've seen, and the Iranians are lobbying missiles into
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 6: northern Israel where hes Blah is firing away. So in
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 6: northern Israel, the Israeli citizenry is getting bombed quite regularly,
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 6: which is disastrous for Israel. Furthermore, with regard to invading
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 6: southern Lebanon and going up to the Latani River, if
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 6: you look at the number of Hesbelah forces in that region,
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 6: you look at the terrain, I think it's extremely unlikely
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 6: that the Israelis are going to be successful. And again
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 6: I've been reading reports that the Israelis are losing lots
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 6: of mirkava tanks as you would expect in their attempts
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 6: to conquer war territory in southern Lebanon. So from an
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 6: Israeli point of view, what's happening visa Villa Hezbollah in
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 6: Lebanon is not good news. They are not doing well.
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 6: So they're not doing well against Iran and they're not
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 6: doing well against Lebanon.
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 1: Then why why do they continue to do this?
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 3: Mentaignaho is bragged about becoming a quote global superpower.
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 1: I believe you said that in Hebrew.
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 3: Is that really just about fulfilling his ambition to destroy
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 3: any potential regional threat, even at the cost of becoming
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 3: a global pariah and co opting the United States of America,
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 3: which itself may abandon it sometime in the future. Why
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 3: would they continue to expand this much blood and treasure
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 3: if it's really not in their interest or is it?
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 6: Well, I'd make two points. One is the Israelis are
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 6: addicted to war. The Israelis believe in a very profound way,
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 6: in big stick diplomacy. They believe that they can pound
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 6: countries into submission. They don't believe that you need political
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 6: settlements to solve wars. They think that you can settle
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 6: wars with the mailed fist. This is a foolish way
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 6: of thinking, but it is the way they think, and
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 6: that explains a lot of what's going on. The second
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 6: thing is that it's quite clear that Prime Minister net
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 6: and Yahoo is in political trouble and legal trouble inside
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 6: of Israel, and that his best strategy for surviving is
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 6: a constant state of war. So many Israelis believe that
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 6: as long as as Prime Minister nat Yao who is
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 6: in office, he's going to go to great lengths to
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 6: keep the war machine in action, to keep fighting wars,
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 6: because that's the best way he can achieve political survival.
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 6: So I think it's those two factors together that account
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 6: for what Israel is doing.
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 2: I wanted to get your reaction to some of the
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 2: allegations of Joe Kent, who just resigned from the Trump
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 2: administration over the Iran War, and his telling effectively, you know,
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 2: Israel came in and tricked effectively Trump into pursuing this path.
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 2: He told Tucker Carlson yesterday, and clips were going to
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 2: do a more fulsome review of this interview later in
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 2: the show, but he told Tucker Carlson effectively, they would
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 2: bring in what appeared to be faulty intelligence to try
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 2: to manipulate the president and his advisors, and that is
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 2: ultimately the reason why Trump launched this war. What do
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 2: you make of those allegations and how does that match
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 2: with the report the thinking you've done about the way
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 2: that Israel operates in the US.
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 6: I have no doubt that Joe Kent is correct that
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 6: it was Israel and the Israel lobby that led us
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 6: into this war. I mean Mark or Rubio, the Secretary
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 6: of State, and Mike Johnson, the Speaker of the House,
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 6: said as much immediately after the war started. They made
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 6: it clear it wasn't the United States that took the
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 6: initiative in starting this war. It was Israel that took
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 6: the initiative, and Israel in effect dragged us in. Furthermore,
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 6: you want to remember that Lindsey Graham has admitted that
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 6: he went to Israel and he coached Prime Minister Natanyahu
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 6: on how to convince President Trump to go to war
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 6: against Iran. You just want to think about that. Here's
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 6: a US senator saying that he was coaching Prime Minister
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 6: Dan Yahoo on had to get President Trump to go
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 6: to war against Iran. In other words, President Trump needed
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 6: coaching because his basic inclination was not to go to
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 6: war against Iran. And then if you look at what
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 6: was happening inside the United States, all you have to
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 6: do is look at the two principal individuals who were
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 6: advising Trump on whether or not he should go to war.
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 6: They were Jared Kushner and Steve Whitcoff, who are passionate Zionists.
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 6: In fact, Jonathan Powell, who is Britain's national security advisor.
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 6: This is Britain's national security advisor. He was president at
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 6: the negotiations that were taking place between Iran and the
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 6: United States right before the war, and he describes Kushner
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 6: and Witkoff as Israeli assets. Just think about that. The
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 6: two principal advisors to President Trump, and remember President Trump
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 6: that he was going to take his cue from those
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 6: two individuals as to whether or not he should go
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 6: to war against Iran were seen by the British National
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 6: Security Advisor as Israeli essence. Truly remarkable. This is just
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 6: the tip of the iceberg. I could point to all
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 6: sorts of other evidence that it was Israel and it
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 6: was the lobby that pushed President President Trump into this war.
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 2: And why do you think they succeeded with this president
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 2: where other with other presidents? Obviously, I mean who talked
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 2: about he is one of This war for forty years
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 2: is the fulfillment of his greatest fantasy. Trump is not
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 2: the first US president to get pressured towards a war
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 2: in Iran. What was it about him or his administration
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 2: or the tactics that they used that allowed them to
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 2: succeed here where they had failed in the past.
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 6: Well, first of all, there is the possibility that they
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 6: have information about President Trump's past behavior that they're using
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 6: to blackmail him. We have no hard evidence of that.
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 6: I want to make it clear, but just watching this unfold,
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 6: it does seem like that might be the case. Because
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 6: President Trump is so beholden to the Israelis. It's really
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 6: quite amazing. But I think the two other arguments that
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 6: you can put on the table are a number one,
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 6: that the Israelis actually convinced him that Iran was a
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 6: paper tiger and that it could be easily brought to
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 6: its knees. You want to remember that before the war started,
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 6: when President Trump had moved the Armada into the Middle East,
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 6: Steve Witkoff said that President Trump was surprised that the
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 6: mere presence of the Armada and the threat that that
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 6: Armada might be used against Iran didn't bring the Iranians
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 6: to surrender. He thought that the threat, the mere threat
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 6: of force, would coerce the Iranians into surrendering. That tells
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 6: you he thought that this regime was very weak. He
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 6: thought it would fail quickly. And this, by the way,
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 6: is why President Trump didn't accept the arguments that this
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 6: would be a long war and that the Iranians were
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 6: likely to shut the Strait of Hormuz. He has said
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 6: that he was told that the Iranians were likely to
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 6: shut the Strait of Hormuz, but he just didn't believe
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 6: it because he thought we would win a quick and
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 6: easy and decisive victory. So I think President Trump was primed,
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 6: mainly through the Israelis, to think that this was going
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 6: to be an easy victory. Then the other thing is
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 6: I think the Venezuela precedent gave him the impression that
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 6: he could felt like a butterfly and sting like a bay,
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 6: that what he did in Venezuela he could do in Iran.
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 6: I don't think he fully realized despite the fact that
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 6: the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff was telling
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 6: him that this was going to be an extremely difficult
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 6: operation and we really didn't have a good military option.
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 6: President Trump just disregarded that. He thought that the naysayers
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 6: said this before Venezuela. But I went out and proved that,
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 6: you know, we can do magical things in Venezuela, and
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 6: I'll just do magical things again against Iran. And I
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 6: think when you put Venezuela together with the stories he
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 6: was being told about how weak and how vulnerable the
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 6: Iranian regime was, I think it was easy for him
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 6: to pull the trigger.
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 3: The last question for you, sir, about the Straits of Hormuz.
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 3: It appears that some sort of ground operation is you know,
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 3: I wouldn't say potent, it seems potential. With the deployment
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 3: of all these troops. It would make sense in terms
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 3: of the escalation ladder. I believe you've compared it before
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 3: it potent Glipoli. What would that look like? What would
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 3: that draw us into any sort of ground control operation
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 3: on the streets of Urmuz or on Carg Island.
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 6: Well, Carg Island is different than the Strait because you
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 6: have to get through the strait to get to Carg Island,
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 6: unless you want to launch an attack from sweaty Arabia
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 6: across the Persian Gulf onto the beaches of Carg Island,
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 6: which I don't think we want to do. I think
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 6: it's almost impossible to get through the Strait of Hormuz.
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 6: I mean, it's very clear that you can't use naval
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 6: force alone to get through. The US Navy won't even
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 6: go near the strait, and all the precedents in this
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 6: regard say stay away ground forces. It would require a
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 6: major operation. And even if you brought ground forces in
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 6: and you controlled the terrain around the strait. The fact
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 6: is it would still be exceedingly difficult for the Navy
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 6: and for tankers and other kinds of ships, take cargo
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 6: ships to get through the strait, in large part because
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 6: there would still be mines at the bottom of the strait,
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 6: lots of mines which are easy for the Iranians to lay.
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 6: And furthermore, the Iranians have all sorts of cruise missiles,
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 6: ballistic missiles, drones, both sea based and air base that
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 6: they can use to attack any ships that come near
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 6: the strait. So I'm not sure that even if you
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 6: wanted to commit large scale ground forces to try and
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 6: surround the strait that that would solve the problem. And
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 6: most importantly here, once you commit large scale ground forces,
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 6: you're in a quagmire. I mean, this would be disastrous.
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 6: Trump clearly understands that that, you know, putting ground forces
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 6: anywhere inside of Iran, whether it's carg Island, whether it's
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 6: around the strait, whether you're talking about putting ground forces
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 6: inside of Iran to try and capture that enriched uranium
• 1:13:13
  Speaker 6: that they have, is a prescription for a big trouble.
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 1: Well, thank you so much. For joining us. Sir As always,
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 1: we appreciate your analysis.
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 6: You're more than welcome. It was my pleasure.
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 1: Thank you,