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Transcript

Wyndham Championship PGA Leverage Lane | DraftKings & FanDuel DFS | Single-Entry GPP Strategy · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:02
  Speaker 1: All systems going clear, the lift up. What's up everyone?
• 0:34
  Speaker 2: Tyler Temaline here aka Totag and Tambo back for another
• 0:38
  Speaker 2: edition of Leverage Lane here on the ship at Nation
• 0:40
  Speaker 2: YouTube Station. PGA edition this week the Windom Championship, and
• 0:44
  Speaker 2: we'll break down all things as usual. We'll go into
• 0:47
  Speaker 2: the chalk build of the week, how you can leverage
• 0:49
  Speaker 2: that one and done betting segment that the breakdown there,
• 0:52
  Speaker 2: and then of course we'll have our leverage Lane at
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: the end from a single entry perspective for all you
• 0:56
  Speaker 2: playing less lineups out there.
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: But it's all about the process, not about the picks.
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: And my man Alex Blickel here with me as always
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: and Alex, how you doing, my friend. It's a it's
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: a big week ahead.
• 1:04
  Speaker 2: We're excited we're getting the last regular season events of
• 1:07
  Speaker 2: the PGA season.
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: But some crazy winners thore.
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: Last week, the week with Yo coyven the week before
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: where I was at Live and we've seen some pretty
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: fun stuff these last couple of weeks.
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: So it's still interesting.
• 1:16
  Speaker 3: We have we're we're almost like an almost exactly a
• 1:20
  Speaker 3: week or a full month I should say, away from
• 1:23
  Speaker 3: the NFL starting. I think it's a week from today
• 1:26
  Speaker 3: will be a month away, so it's a it's a
• 1:30
  Speaker 3: very exciting time of the season. We have seen Week
• 1:34
  Speaker 3: one NFL satellites have been in some PGA lobbies for
• 1:37
  Speaker 3: a couple of weeks now. They've also now made their
• 1:39
  Speaker 3: way into the MLB lobbies. So this is just like
• 1:42
  Speaker 3: a really fun DFS time to to really be going
• 1:45
  Speaker 3: after it. And I think, you know, you reference kind
• 1:47
  Speaker 3: of lazy weeks a lot. I think this is a
• 1:49
  Speaker 3: lazy time of year where people aren't really really you know,
• 1:53
  Speaker 3: putting their best put forward in their DFS play and
• 1:55
  Speaker 3: so if we are doing that, uh, there's a there's
• 1:58
  Speaker 3: a pretty large edge and no better time to table
• 2:01
  Speaker 3: our judgement when you're trying to get Week one tickets.
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: One hundred percent. I think the Saddy streets are the
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: place to be as usual.
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: We talk about it all the time, but I know,
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: like you know, being a contrarian player this time of year,
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: like we are during DFS and not just playing all
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: the chalk. And that's why this show becomes so important
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: because that's what it is. We know what people are
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: doing this week, and I love that about golf. Whereas
• 2:19
  Speaker 2: I talk about it all the time in NFL and
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: in NBA and those types of things, you're like, well,
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: the ownership looks like it's going to be this the contest,
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: Simms might push something else and then all of a sudden,
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: the ownership is swayed way further than you think. Typically
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: in PGA, we've got a pretty good setup on that,
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: and that's what I think is this week. We saw
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: contrarian players win the lottery. Last week with Jeremy over
• 2:40
  Speaker 2: at etr shut up to him, and then the mesh
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: my boy got the job done too. They chopped it
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: up for one hundred and fifty cage. I had a
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: lot of close calls last week. I know Gim bounced
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: back for the boys last week, so we were on
• 2:51
  Speaker 2: the Doug Gim training again. You can't let those things
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: bother You got to get back in. So it's another
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: fun week ahead. Was there anything else about last week
• 2:57
  Speaker 2: with thor and sort of how the lineup shrik out
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: that you wanted to recap on. I think today is
• 3:00
  Speaker 2: going to be more of a straightforward approach. But anything
• 3:03
  Speaker 2: you wanted to talk about with last week's event before
• 3:05
  Speaker 2: we move on to this.
• 3:05
  Speaker 3: One, I don't think so nothing really stood out One
• 3:09
  Speaker 3: thing I will say though, is there's a lot of
• 3:11
  Speaker 3: carryover between these two golf courses. So I do think
• 3:15
  Speaker 3: that like and actually not just these two golf courses,
• 3:17
  Speaker 3: but also TBC Twin Cities. These are like the biggest
• 3:21
  Speaker 3: difference that the renovation made from a course fit perspective
• 3:24
  Speaker 3: is it took most of the advantage that Bombers had
• 3:28
  Speaker 3: previously had at Detroit Golf Club. So we now have
• 3:32
  Speaker 3: back to back weeks with TBC Twin Cities and then
• 3:35
  Speaker 3: last week at Detroit Golf Club on golf courses that
• 3:38
  Speaker 3: really diminish the predictive value of driving distance. Both kind
• 3:42
  Speaker 3: of enhanced the accuracy predicted signals. Certainly TBC Twin Cities did.
• 3:47
  Speaker 3: This is a golf course that really kind of accentuates
• 3:50
  Speaker 3: accuracy off the tee. So this is also a time
• 3:53
  Speaker 3: of year where I think, or at least like a
• 3:56
  Speaker 3: series of events where recent form probably matters a little
• 3:59
  Speaker 3: bit more than you because we've had similar tests week
• 4:03
  Speaker 3: after week. It's not like you're going you know, there's
• 4:06
  Speaker 3: there's a time in the season where you go from
• 4:08
  Speaker 3: Quail Hollow and and Durral to golf courses where it's
• 4:14
  Speaker 3: like Bomber's paradise. Everything's about how good you are off
• 4:18
  Speaker 3: the tee, and then you get to a bunch of
• 4:20
  Speaker 3: golf courses like Heritage, where that's not the case at all,
• 4:23
  Speaker 3: and so all of a sudden, recent form shouldn't matter
• 4:25
  Speaker 3: a ton. This is a part of the schedule where
• 4:27
  Speaker 3: it really does because they're being tested in the same
• 4:30
  Speaker 3: way week after week after week, and so the guys
• 4:32
  Speaker 3: who are informed on those golf courses should be informed
• 4:35
  Speaker 3: for this golf course as well.
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and I love that. You're gonna have more on that.
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: Probably get to the course fit and the weather and
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: applying it and bring it over to some of the
• 4:41
  Speaker 2: options this week in ways that we can leverage the field.
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: So stay tuned for that.
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: If you guys haven't yet done so, make sure to
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: hit that thumbs up subscribe to the channel. Like they said,
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: football is right around the corner. We've got a lot
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: of good people in the chat here. Our man wins
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: a lot, our man Gary, Timmy Dubbs is in the
• 4:55
  Speaker 2: building again.
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: The NFL conversation is already happening. Jordan's in here.
• 4:59
  Speaker 2: Shout out the to Jordan again and then Cowboy mets
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: I brought it up earlier, but nineteen eighty six, my
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: fellow forty year old friend. I'm assuming, but we're close
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: to one born eighty six. Gotta be close say his
• 5:08
  Speaker 2: favorite show of the week. FG so love to see
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: all that. Jason Turner notes, we appreciate all you guys.
• 5:14
  Speaker 2: Want to remind everyone quickly before we get into this,
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: just fast. The Big Guy Event is right around the corner,
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: so if you guys haven't yet heard about it or
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: seen it, our friend the degenerate seventy five, who sadly
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: passed away last year after his battle with cancer, he
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: had a GoFundMe that we'd set up and we wanted
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: to do something special with it and make sure that
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: everybody could come together as one community. Is for the
• 5:35
  Speaker 2: entire DFS community. I know not everybody will be able
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: to make it, but there's ways to get involved. Nation
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: dot com Slash the Dash pre Slash Guy Dash event.
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: Just hit me up at totag and tambo tm me
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: tambo dot com. Whatever you want to do, the event
• 5:48
  Speaker 2: will be helped. Friday, August twenty first in the evening
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: is going to before before our true one one DJN
• 5:54
  Speaker 2: seventy five. We have the Detroit Ballroom rented out. We've
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: had some of these events in the past, were always
• 5:59
  Speaker 2: a lot of fun with This is open to everybody
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: who's more like Shipper Nation events. So just so you
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: guys know, everybody is welcome. But it's the Detroit Ballroom,
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: the twelfth floor, the d Las Vegas Casino and hotel,
• 6:10
  Speaker 2: the partner of Circa and so if you want to
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: get in, there's you can get your seat, drink tickets.
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: Advertisers, games, the watch party. There's a collectible.
• 6:17
  Speaker 2: You can get just one of the collectible future big
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: Guy events, and then you can do donations at the
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: bottom as well. You want to support the cause and you
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: buy the colombo. It's the best deal. But if you
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: guys can make it out, we'd love to have you
• 6:29
  Speaker 2: out there. So I just want to bring that up, Alex.
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: As far as getting back to this Windom, let's talk
• 6:35
  Speaker 2: about the sports fit then for a second. You did
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: talk about it in that a little bit there, and
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: I love have you been watching by the way side note,
• 6:41
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna go on a quick tangent, but have you
• 6:43
  Speaker 2: watched so you think you couet out with by Pete
• 6:45
  Speaker 2: Overzet the challenge and the events and all the teams
• 6:48
  Speaker 2: kind of on YouTube that he did.
• 6:50
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I've seen a few of them. Bryant made a
• 6:53
  Speaker 3: comment in the chat, by the way, your your audio
• 6:54
  Speaker 3: is kind of going in and out again.
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: But Mike and I've been off air for like you're perfect.
• 7:01
  Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, apologies guys getting back from vacation swing and
• 7:05
  Speaker 2: the Fantasy Golf World Championship, So apologies on that.
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: But I was saying, have you seen the finale? Was recent?
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: But the so you think you can tout it's been
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: spoiled already, so I don't mind.
• 7:14
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I watched a few of the early ones. I haven't.
• 7:16
  Speaker 3: I haven't watched much lately because I like, as soon
• 7:20
  Speaker 3: as I, you know, really kind of dove into my
• 7:23
  Speaker 3: my own discord and building out the new sites, like
• 7:25
  Speaker 3: it's the only thing I've been able to do every day.
• 7:27
  Speaker 3: So I haven't watched any of the recent ones, but
• 7:31
  Speaker 3: early on, like it's it's such a cool concept, so
• 7:33
  Speaker 3: go get for Pete to to do that, and yeah,
• 7:36
  Speaker 3: it punds like.
• 7:37
  Speaker 2: Very entertaining, and you know, as an onlooker, you know,
• 7:40
  Speaker 2: at another site and finding people and looking for new
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: talent and things like that all the time. I think
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: there's definitely gonna be something from that. But the A
• 7:46
  Speaker 2: and Alex stands for analytics. And the funniest thing is,
• 7:50
  Speaker 2: you know the guy Alex cups shout out to him, congrats,
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: he got the job done. You know, Pete was saying,
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: that's my quant And this guy brings like analytical data
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: takes with charisma, good on camera.
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: And he's able to break them down in layman's terms.
• 8:03
  Speaker 2: And the reason I bring that up and those that
• 8:05
  Speaker 2: have watched us a ton and we're getting later in
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: the season, so everybody knows what you do and how
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: well you do it, and I'm always super excited to
• 8:10
  Speaker 2: be on with you because of that.
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: But you do the same thing, and it's funny you're
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: both named Alex.
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: You both do the you know, kind of the exact
• 8:15
  Speaker 2: same approach, and so I'm excited because for those that
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: don't know, Alex and I also do this for NFL,
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: and I know you've been working in your discord a
• 8:22
  Speaker 2: ton on NFL behind the scenes on top of all
• 8:25
  Speaker 2: the stuff you're doing with MLB and pickums and golf
• 8:28
  Speaker 2: and splits and you name it. So if you want
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: to talk about that a little bit. But I think
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: the NFL stuff, for those that mentioned in there, it's
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: going to be pretty exciting. With the roster construction. Again,
• 8:36
  Speaker 2: just what we focus on is that, like, oh, how.
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: Did you land on this pick or this play or whatever?
• 8:40
  Speaker 3: Said?
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: The roster construction can lead you down the path the
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: picks and plays are a result of the process. But
• 8:46
  Speaker 2: maybe hit on that a little bit and then I'll
• 8:47
  Speaker 2: get into the next segment.
• 8:49
  Speaker 3: I think the biggest theme of it is there's so
• 8:52
  Speaker 3: much with DFS for like week to week we're kind
• 8:54
  Speaker 3: of guessing what's right. We're hoping that the decisions that
• 8:59
  Speaker 3: we're making our really good and are going to lead
• 9:01
  Speaker 3: to two wins and all that stuff, but we rarely
• 9:05
  Speaker 3: are able to know that what we're doing is without
• 9:08
  Speaker 3: question a winning strategy, and if we just do this
• 9:11
  Speaker 3: type of thing over and over and over again, we're
• 9:13
  Speaker 3: going to make money in DFS. That's largely what the
• 9:16
  Speaker 3: roster construction analysis that I've done is allowing us to
• 9:20
  Speaker 3: do where we're able to say, I know, beyond a
• 9:22
  Speaker 3: shadow of a doubt that this type of roster construction wins,
• 9:25
  Speaker 3: and if week in week out, I stick to this formula.
• 9:30
  Speaker 3: I know that you know, in time. It doesn't mean
• 9:32
  Speaker 3: that every single week we're going to do well, of
• 9:34
  Speaker 3: course not, but in time throughout the season, throughout the
• 9:36
  Speaker 3: next five NFL seasons, if I continue to do this
• 9:39
  Speaker 3: type of analysis and build lineups accordingly, I'm going to
• 9:41
  Speaker 3: be a profitable NFL DFS player. And that's just like
• 9:44
  Speaker 3: a really exciting thought because NFL DFS can be so
• 9:47
  Speaker 3: difficult at times. But the other aspect of that too
• 9:50
  Speaker 3: is it allows you to play your own convictions. Right, Like,
• 9:53
  Speaker 3: if the thought is I have to pick the right team,
• 9:57
  Speaker 3: I have to find the right players and just be
• 10:01
  Speaker 3: better than everybody else at identifying the players that are
• 10:04
  Speaker 3: going to have huge games, it's a really really hard
• 10:07
  Speaker 3: thing to do and a really intimidating thing to do,
• 10:09
  Speaker 3: especially if you're trying to build one line up at
• 10:11
  Speaker 3: a time. Whereas if you just know, like I can
• 10:14
  Speaker 3: play whichever team I feel best about, whatever conviction I have,
• 10:18
  Speaker 3: whatever contrarian running back I like, whatever contrarian stack I like,
• 10:22
  Speaker 3: as long as I build it in the right way,
• 10:24
  Speaker 3: I'm going to have success. Like that's really really empowering,
• 10:27
  Speaker 3: and I think it just makes DFS a lot more
• 10:28
  Speaker 3: fun while we're at it.
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: It also makes a little bit easier.
• 10:31
  Speaker 2: We always say how much of a struggle it is
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: to sometimes explain the foundation and the basics of it.
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: And I had conversations with some of the reps in
• 10:38
  Speaker 2: Minneapolis when we were talking about that of like, yes, DFS,
• 10:41
  Speaker 2: someone will win a million dollars this weekend playing fantasy golf.
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: There's a guy that's here that got in from five dollars.
• 10:47
  Speaker 2: He won from five bucks into a four to thirty
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: eight satellite, turned the four thirty eight into the ticket,
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: got the ticket all the way through, and then won
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: like thirty seven thousand across both tournaments.
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: Like that's a cool story.
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: It doesn't make the game easier to understand or play
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: for the complexities of it, and that is what we
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: try and do. Like you and I talk about this
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: a ton. You just talked about your discord. But I'll
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: use this as the last spot just to bring this up.
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: But dfsmastermind dot com is now live and ready to go.
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: The revamp is done.
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: Alex and I have talked about this a ton, some
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: cross promotion like this is where you want to learn
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: how to play, and then you could take that foundation
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: and really stack it with everything that Alex is doing
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: over in his discord, and we'll have more on that
• 11:26
  Speaker 2: in the future. A little tease for you guys, We've
• 11:28
  Speaker 2: got some stuff upcoming. But if you want to learn
• 11:30
  Speaker 2: how to actually play the game, I mean, you get in.
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: It's a one time payment. You can get in for
• 11:34
  Speaker 2: less than fifty bucks to get started, and you could
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: do in a nine to five shift if you will.
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: For those work in the.
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: Day to day job, I mean everybody is it's nine
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: to five, eight hours. You can get in seven hours
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: or less. These two modules, get the premium podcast feed.
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: You have it forever.
• 11:49
  Speaker 2: You can take notes, circle back, do whatever, and then
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: if you want to upgrade, there's even the two payment
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: option two forty nine twice, but it's just it's done.
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: It's a one time option.
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: You can get in and get all the interviews, all
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: the extras, everything goes with it. You can hit me
• 12:00
  Speaker 2: up if you have any questions, but I think that's
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: key to remember if you want to get the foundations
• 12:04
  Speaker 2: of the game.
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: A lot of people say, like.
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: You know, I learned to play the game differently, and
• 12:08
  Speaker 2: that's what we're trying to talk about, right here on
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: this show every week, so you guys tune in for
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: the rest of these and for NFL quick programming. Note
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: on that segue, we won't have a show next week
• 12:18
  Speaker 2: for the BMW Championship, Alex or sorry for the FedEx
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: Saint Jude, Alex has a special place to be all
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: at him talk about. But for the BMW Championship, we
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: will be back to round out the PGA DFS season
• 12:31
  Speaker 2: of Leverage Lane, and then of course we'll get some
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: preview stuff going for NFL. We've got some really fun
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: stuff planned, like I said, so stay tuned. We have
• 12:37
  Speaker 2: some waitlists, watch some things like that. But Alex, what
• 12:39
  Speaker 2: do you got going on next week?
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: My friend?
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: And then we'll get into the actual conversation here. This
• 12:43
  Speaker 2: is just instead of the recap this week.
• 12:45
  Speaker 3: Yeah, just playing the Pennsylvania Open, so hopefully hopefully can
• 12:49
  Speaker 3: make some noise there. I haven't been able to play
• 12:51
  Speaker 3: much golf this summer at all, even to like some
• 12:54
  Speaker 3: of the tournaments that I was supposed to play. Had
• 12:57
  Speaker 3: a bad ankle sprain, so I wasn't able to get
• 12:59
  Speaker 3: on the golf course. I wasn't able to get through
• 13:01
  Speaker 3: US Open local qualifying. Then I had a tournament of
• 13:04
  Speaker 3: Vermont get canceled because like they had such an extended
• 13:07
  Speaker 3: winter that the golf course wasn't ready. So I'm coming
• 13:11
  Speaker 3: in playing far less golf than ever before before the Pennsylvania.
• 13:14
  Speaker 3: But the last time I played, I played really, really well,
• 13:16
  Speaker 3: so I do feel some confidence. But yeah, I got
• 13:20
  Speaker 3: to go up to Pittsburgh for this one, so just
• 13:22
  Speaker 3: it's gonna be too tough, too tough to find a
• 13:25
  Speaker 3: time to actually do the leverage lane show.
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and you go, what is it? Two tea times?
• 13:29
  Speaker 3: You go one year early Monday morning and then late
• 13:33
  Speaker 3: Tuesday afternoon and then hopefully I make the cut and
• 13:36
  Speaker 3: play Wednesday to close it out.
• 13:38
  Speaker 2: What type of number do you think you got to
• 13:40
  Speaker 2: get to? You know from the past history and kind
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: of weather and things like that, but what do you
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: think you got to get to?
• 13:43
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't know because I haven't seen this golf
• 13:45
  Speaker 3: course yet, but from everything that I've heard, it's a
• 13:48
  Speaker 3: really good golf course. I know the greens are going
• 13:50
  Speaker 3: to be running at like fourteen, They're going to be firm,
• 13:52
  Speaker 3: so it it will probably take something like, I don't know,
• 13:57
  Speaker 3: a few under par to be in the mix when
• 14:00
  Speaker 3: when I won Philly Cricket, I got into a playoff
• 14:03
  Speaker 3: ait even par I don't think it's gonna.
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: Be that tough.
• 14:06
  Speaker 3: There was also there was also a winning score was
• 14:08
  Speaker 3: even at Oakmont when it held the Pennsylvania Open. So
• 14:13
  Speaker 3: that's usually like the you know, the highest end of
• 14:15
  Speaker 3: the scores most of the time winners four under six,
• 14:19
  Speaker 3: under eight under, something like that. I think last year,
• 14:22
  Speaker 3: I'm trying to remember exactly how low it got. I can't.
• 14:26
  Speaker 3: I think it was again like six to eight or
• 14:28
  Speaker 3: something like that. So maybe in that range for the
• 14:31
  Speaker 3: for the win.
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm sure you'll do the data analytics on that
• 14:34
  Speaker 2: too and get the course fit going for over there.
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: But we wish you the best, my friend. Hopefully it
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: goes well for you.
• 14:38
  Speaker 2: It's always exciting just to have that like as an
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: added thing that you know most known about you but
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: not everybody does. It's like it's not a hobby, it's
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: like something you're actually really good at and something you
• 14:46
  Speaker 2: could do and make some noise with. So hopefully it
• 14:49
  Speaker 2: goes well for you. Definitely gonna be rooting for you.
• 14:51
  Speaker 2: Talk to me about the course fit for this week.
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: I know you do the analysis going in, Uh, how
• 14:56
  Speaker 2: do you see that working for the Windom Championship this year?
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: The field like we're gonna ge to in a second,
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: and the way it sets up and the pricing and all,
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: you kind of can do whatever you want. I feel
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: like the seven Gay range is large and all that,
• 15:05
  Speaker 2: but when you're talking about it from a course fit perspective,
• 15:08
  Speaker 2: talk to me about that, and then anything with the
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: weather you can follow up with as well.
• 15:12
  Speaker 3: One last thing in the Pennsylvania Open here or Oracle
• 15:15
  Speaker 3: asked if there is live scoring. Yes, there is. Just
• 15:17
  Speaker 3: go to pa golf dot org the day of so
• 15:21
  Speaker 3: Monday you'll see some some like gigantic links for the
• 15:25
  Speaker 3: live scoring, so it's hard to miss there. As far
• 15:27
  Speaker 3: as this golf course goes, I don't see a ton
• 15:30
  Speaker 3: in the weather. One thing I noticed was I was
• 15:33
  Speaker 3: doing some like as part of the splits, I wanted
• 15:36
  Speaker 3: to look to see if soft conditions were a potentially
• 15:40
  Speaker 3: predictive split. They're really not. Despite the fact that this
• 15:44
  Speaker 3: is I think it was like the the single highest
• 15:48
  Speaker 3: average amount of rain for the three lead in weeks
• 15:52
  Speaker 3: of any tournament on tour. So they typically have soft conditions.
• 15:57
  Speaker 3: It's just that soft conditions apparently aren't a predictive split
• 16:01
  Speaker 3: in any way, shape or form. Aaron Rye made a
• 16:03
  Speaker 3: good point as well. He talked about how on Donald
• 16:06
  Speaker 3: Ross courses. We'll talk more about this in a bit,
• 16:09
  Speaker 3: but on Donald Ross courses, the typical green shape is
• 16:12
  Speaker 3: a severe back to front slope, and so that also
• 16:16
  Speaker 3: helps to stop balls coming in with you know, on
• 16:20
  Speaker 3: a long iron for example, And so ry pointed to
• 16:23
  Speaker 3: that as one of the reasons why he might do
• 16:24
  Speaker 3: well on Donald Ross courses, since he doesn't hit the
• 16:26
  Speaker 3: ball very high or with a ton of spin, so
• 16:29
  Speaker 3: that helps him stop the ball in a way that
• 16:31
  Speaker 3: he otherwise can't, you know, on flatter, firmer surfaces. But
• 16:37
  Speaker 3: the course fit this week is actually really straightforward. On
• 16:41
  Speaker 3: any golf course, the dominant factor when we talk course
• 16:45
  Speaker 3: fit is how rewarding is the golf course to driving distance,
• 16:50
  Speaker 3: And this is one of, if not the single least
• 16:52
  Speaker 3: on tour. Driving distance is seventy percent less predictive than
• 16:56
  Speaker 3: usual this week, and a reminder for just what that means,
• 17:01
  Speaker 3: like take I'll use Marco Penge and Eric Cole as
• 17:05
  Speaker 3: the example because I used these guys in my article
• 17:07
  Speaker 3: earlier for ftn. But point four one is Peinge is
• 17:14
  Speaker 3: driving distance, so per round he gains point four to
• 17:17
  Speaker 3: one strokes through distance alone. Eric Cole is at zero
• 17:21
  Speaker 3: point zero, So just very easy kind of comparison here,
• 17:25
  Speaker 3: that point four to one stroke difference per round in
• 17:28
  Speaker 3: talent between Penge and Coal is only worth point one
• 17:33
  Speaker 3: two strokes here. Point three of the skilled difference actually
• 17:38
  Speaker 3: carries over here at Sedgefield. So that's a massive, massive
• 17:43
  Speaker 3: course fit factor, And then you also get an increase
• 17:45
  Speaker 3: in the predictive value of driving accuracy. The other thing
• 17:48
  Speaker 3: with distance is distance is even more predictive at the
• 17:51
  Speaker 3: tail end. So how high your floor is in a
• 17:54
  Speaker 3: given week, how high your ceiling is a given week.
• 17:56
  Speaker 3: So essentially like short and accurate play have a significantly
• 18:02
  Speaker 3: higher ceiling here at Sedgefield than they do on a
• 18:04
  Speaker 3: typical week. And the longest hitters in the field, I
• 18:09
  Speaker 3: wouldn't necessarily the necessarily say they have muted ceilings. It's
• 18:13
  Speaker 3: just like you're bringing in you know, typically if a
• 18:17
  Speaker 3: really long hitter has to compete with forty guys in
• 18:19
  Speaker 3: the field to win this week, because there are so
• 18:21
  Speaker 3: many guys who are short and otherwise wouldn't have the
• 18:24
  Speaker 3: ceiling to compete with them. Now they have to compete
• 18:26
  Speaker 3: with eighty to one hundred guys who actually have a
• 18:28
  Speaker 3: real chance to win. So it's just a very different
• 18:32
  Speaker 3: kind of skill profile that can really succeed here. And
• 18:36
  Speaker 3: that's that's intriguing because even when the field is on that,
• 18:39
  Speaker 3: I don't think the field totally understands like how impactful
• 18:42
  Speaker 3: course fit can really be.
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: Absolutely and the point one line that you said that
• 18:45
  Speaker 2: it's critical, I believe, especially when we talk about the
• 18:47
  Speaker 2: lazy week, and the lazy weeks typically mean condensed ownership
• 18:50
  Speaker 2: in spots like when we go to build the chalkbeild,
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: I feel very comfortable we're going to land on the
• 18:54
  Speaker 2: variation that's pretty accurate. So that's the case when you
• 18:57
  Speaker 2: say eighty to one hundred guys can do it because
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: of this, the decrease and like the driving distance and
• 19:03
  Speaker 2: like the guys that mashed off the tee are not
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: gonna be as you know, powerful as what it normally
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: is in value to this field. It's saying, why is
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: everyone condensing into like the same ten guys and some
• 19:13
  Speaker 2: variation off of those ten guys, there's ninety they're leaving
• 19:16
  Speaker 2: out of like actually playable dudes, you have a bigger
• 19:19
  Speaker 2: player pool to work with them. From a DFS perspective,
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: that matters, and we talk about it all the time.
• 19:23
  Speaker 2: I talk about it a DFS mastermind about like getting
• 19:25
  Speaker 2: your like, how do you get your player pool down?
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: How do you make that work for you? Building in
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: sets and things like that.
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: So those types of things and foundation pieces are what
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: can help you build up and then be able to
• 19:35
  Speaker 2: get to something where you can find an edge on
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: a week like this. Now, speaking of eighty to one
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: hundred guys, how many people are in.
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: The PA Open?
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: I gotta go back to this for two seconds. I
• 19:44
  Speaker 2: got two questions. How much how many people get in
• 19:46
  Speaker 2: this thing?
• 19:47
  Speaker 3: I think it's probably like one hundred and forty, okay,
• 19:50
  Speaker 3: And if.
• 19:52
  Speaker 2: The best golfer in it is Cam Young ten four pricing,
• 19:55
  Speaker 2: where would Alex Blickle be priced at?
• 19:58
  Speaker 3: Hmmm? Were the year that I won, I probably would
• 20:02
  Speaker 3: have been at like upper seven's eight thousand. In the
• 20:06
  Speaker 3: couple years after, I probably would have gone up to
• 20:11
  Speaker 3: ninety five something like that. Now I would probably say
• 20:15
  Speaker 3: I'm like, I'm eighty five hundred, but I'm like, I'm
• 20:17
  Speaker 3: the eighty five hundred dollars justin Rose at the Masters,
• 20:20
  Speaker 3: where it's like all the projections won't like me, but
• 20:24
  Speaker 3: you'd only be taking me because you've seen me have
• 20:27
  Speaker 3: success in this tournament before.
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: Wow.
• 20:29
  Speaker 2: Do you know what's funny about everything you just said there?
• 20:31
  Speaker 2: And only my weird brain can work like this. But
• 20:33
  Speaker 2: do you know who's eighty five hundred this week?
• 20:36
  Speaker 3: Who's eighty five hundred this week?
• 20:38
  Speaker 2: He's brooks Koepka, a guy that we know can do it,
• 20:40
  Speaker 2: a guy that's been there in the past but will
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: not project well. But you know if he showed up
• 20:44
  Speaker 2: and be like, oh man, there's brooks Kopka, So you're
• 20:47
  Speaker 2: just as good as a super major winner in brooks Kopka.
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: My friend's eighty five hundred bucks very solid. I had
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: to ask that works out. We'll get to this stuff later.
• 20:55
  Speaker 2: Our guy Marquis Sports is here, must be getting close
• 20:57
  Speaker 2: to NFL.
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: That's that's what that's saying. But shut out to you.
• 21:00
  Speaker 2: And we will talk about Coyven later on, definitely, But
• 21:04
  Speaker 2: anything else you want to talk about when it comes
• 21:05
  Speaker 2: to course fit or whether, if not, let's get to
• 21:08
  Speaker 2: the chockfield of the week.
• 21:11
  Speaker 3: Uh No, because I think I'll talk I'll talk more
• 21:14
  Speaker 3: about the splits, which are certainly part of of course fit.
• 21:17
  Speaker 3: But as we kind of go into the players, so
• 21:21
  Speaker 3: I don't think there's I don't think there's anything else,
• 21:23
  Speaker 3: just like on the top. Oh, actually there's there's one
• 21:25
  Speaker 3: more aspect approach plays less predictive than usual here, but
• 21:30
  Speaker 3: that comes with the typical caveat that, like it's really
• 21:33
  Speaker 3: really difficult for approach play to have its usual predictive
• 21:37
  Speaker 3: value when accuracy is this much more predictive than usual,
• 21:40
  Speaker 3: Because what that's essentially saying is like every single player
• 21:45
  Speaker 3: starts at the same spot on the tea box, right,
• 21:48
  Speaker 3: So there's no other aspect of golf that affects how
• 21:51
  Speaker 3: a player drives the ball. But a player's ability to
• 21:54
  Speaker 3: gain strokes with his irons is somewhat dependent on his
• 21:57
  Speaker 3: ability to give him self opportunities to do so by
• 22:01
  Speaker 3: driving the ball well. So if a very good iron
• 22:04
  Speaker 3: player who isn't driving the ball well is in the
• 22:08
  Speaker 3: trees all day and chipping out or even just in
• 22:11
  Speaker 3: the rough and doesn't have the ability to control the
• 22:13
  Speaker 3: spin to get the ball close in that way, he
• 22:16
  Speaker 3: doesn't have the chance to actually take advantage of that
• 22:20
  Speaker 3: major skill set of his. So that's why we see
• 22:22
  Speaker 3: approach play less particulive than usual as a whole, But
• 22:26
  Speaker 3: amongst players who are accurate off the tee, I do
• 22:29
  Speaker 3: still think approach plays super super predictive here. And so
• 22:31
  Speaker 3: if you can find those players like an Aaron Rye
• 22:34
  Speaker 3: for example, who are great with his irons and has
• 22:38
  Speaker 3: the driving accuracy to actually be able to take advantage
• 22:40
  Speaker 3: of that skill set, that's like the not really a
• 22:44
  Speaker 3: double edged store, but like it has compounding benefits where
• 22:48
  Speaker 3: you can really get the most out of a player.
• 22:50
  Speaker 2: I also had a note in myself it's a good
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: point there because like for Showdown at this tournament, obviously
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: we're talking all things DFS and we just throw these
• 22:56
  Speaker 2: tidbits in as we go along. But for Showdown, it's
• 22:59
  Speaker 2: like if someone is like a lot of the secondary guys,
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: where it's like everyone will go to the guy with
• 23:03
  Speaker 2: the best approach in round two and be like, Okay,
• 23:05
  Speaker 2: I got it.
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: But and that's fine. They can lose.
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: If they're gaining two and a half on approach and
• 23:09
  Speaker 2: they lose zero point seventy five, they're still really going
• 23:12
  Speaker 2: to gain a ton and probably make have birdy opportunities
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: to make it happen. But there's a lot of guys
• 23:16
  Speaker 2: that you can find that out from once we get
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: a little bit more info, and if it's everyone sort
• 23:20
  Speaker 2: of who's accurate, is getting into the fairway, is giving
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: themselves a chance, and then those playing good on approach,
• 23:25
  Speaker 2: you could sort of tail that as the weekend goes on.
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: But again, people like to go just to the top
• 23:29
  Speaker 2: five guys and be like, oh, I built the lineup
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: with all the.
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: Best dudes, and like they might not have that good
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: a day in the next round.
• 23:34
  Speaker 2: But you got the secondary group where it's like they
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: were putting some stuff together, a few good shots here
• 23:38
  Speaker 2: and there, and other guys that had like one bad
• 23:40
  Speaker 2: shot but the rest of their stuff was pretty dialed in.
• 23:42
  Speaker 2: It's like, oh man, they're gonna have opportunities tomorrow. So
• 23:45
  Speaker 2: keep that in mind when you're playing Showdown this week.
• 23:47
  Speaker 2: It's a really fun tournament. I got to be at
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: this event the year Willie Z won it, and that
• 23:52
  Speaker 2: was incredible down the stretch. But it's a super hot course,
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: like all the time, like the boys are sweating out there,
• 23:57
  Speaker 2: so it's pretty crazy. Like Stepstraca was in the mix
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: that year and everything. But people that play good in
• 24:02
  Speaker 2: the beginning typically continue on playing well like either got
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: it or you don't. At this course, it's not one
• 24:07
  Speaker 2: to mess around with, So keep that in mind when
• 24:09
  Speaker 2: you're looking at Showdown, and if you're building for your
• 24:11
  Speaker 2: lineups for the classics, like Alex said, you can always
• 24:13
  Speaker 2: include that stuff as well. I'm going to go to
• 24:15
  Speaker 2: the stone too on shibernation dot com. Keep in mind
• 24:18
  Speaker 2: it is the rough draft. But Alex, where do you
• 24:21
  Speaker 2: want to start for the chalk build. We've got it
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: all here, we can build it in the lineup handbuilder.
• 24:27
  Speaker 2: Obviously Cam Young popping a little bit, but I think
• 24:29
  Speaker 2: it also matters what you're doing with like the value
• 24:31
  Speaker 2: plays down below.
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: I know Sung Jay can get some love.
• 24:35
  Speaker 2: You know there's some other guys down here too, But
• 24:37
  Speaker 2: how do you think the chalk build looks this week?
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: What's your thoughts?
• 24:40
  Speaker 3: I think it starts with Cam. It's worth noting like
• 24:44
  Speaker 3: off the top. For most of the season, we've had
• 24:48
  Speaker 3: two different types of events. Either Scott he's in the field,
• 24:52
  Speaker 3: in which case we see number one like a massive
• 24:56
  Speaker 3: break at the top when it comes to pricing, so
• 24:58
  Speaker 3: crazy separation in price, and then we also see the
• 25:01
  Speaker 3: crazy separation in projections that Scotti Schffler has versus the field,
• 25:05
  Speaker 3: or we've seen events like this one feels like this
• 25:09
  Speaker 3: where there isn't a ton of separation at the top
• 25:11
  Speaker 3: from a pricing perspective, like this week ten four to ten,
• 25:14
  Speaker 3: one to nine to five, Like that's nothing crazy, but
• 25:18
  Speaker 3: there is this week quite a bit of separation in projections.
• 25:23
  Speaker 3: When you look around the industry, typically you're gonna see
• 25:26
  Speaker 3: cam Young seven, ten, twelve points ahead of the second
• 25:30
  Speaker 3: highest projected player. So you get the projection separation without
• 25:35
  Speaker 3: the pricing separation. You also get like a a lower
• 25:39
  Speaker 3: top end price than we're a customed to seeing, Like
• 25:41
  Speaker 3: a lot of time, even in this type of field,
• 25:43
  Speaker 3: we'd see ten seven, eleven to one something like that
• 25:46
  Speaker 3: for the most expensive guy. It's just really easy to
• 25:48
  Speaker 3: fit him. So I'm expecting huge ownership on Cam Young,
• 25:54
  Speaker 3: the type of ownership that we saw a lot of
• 25:56
  Speaker 3: last year on scottis Scheffler.
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm seeing thirty plus.
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: I know we haven' quite got there on our stuff yet,
• 26:00
  Speaker 2: but it looks like that's coming. So I think it'll
• 26:03
  Speaker 2: hit guys like coyven a little bit, and it's just
• 26:05
  Speaker 2: the projection gap is too big to make up.
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: When people have three hundred bucks, they're not thinking about Coyven.
• 26:10
  Speaker 2: Now, listen at the Fantasy Golf World Championship, Coyven got
• 26:13
  Speaker 2: steamed up in a similar spot somehow, but.
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: He was also like ninety one or ninety two hundred.
• 26:17
  Speaker 2: It was a different range as opposed to being up
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: above that ten k threshold. I really do want to
• 26:22
  Speaker 2: build the chalk lineup, but I want to answer this quick
• 26:24
  Speaker 2: for Brian before heads out, says heading to a meeting,
• 26:26
  Speaker 2: Just curious if you guys have any guys who play
• 26:28
  Speaker 2: well above their baseline on bermuda.
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: I don't know if you will have this. I'm not
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: expecting you too, but I'm saying, do you even care?
• 26:34
  Speaker 3: I'll answer this in both ways. I have the data
• 26:37
  Speaker 3: on this, and the data says we should not care
• 26:40
  Speaker 3: about this. And to be clear, this doesn't mean that
• 26:45
  Speaker 3: there aren't players who are better on bermuda than on
• 26:48
  Speaker 3: other grass types, and who will continue to be better
• 26:50
  Speaker 3: on Bermuda than other grass types. What it instead says
• 26:54
  Speaker 3: is that we do not have the ability to separate
• 26:57
  Speaker 3: those few players with real signal from the large collection
• 27:02
  Speaker 3: of players who will have good Bermuda splits purely out
• 27:05
  Speaker 3: of randomness, and those good Bermudas splits will not continue
• 27:08
  Speaker 3: into the future. So that's what it means for it
• 27:10
  Speaker 3: to be not predictive. And I've made this point on
• 27:14
  Speaker 3: the show with Pat a few times, and I think
• 27:16
  Speaker 3: here as well with you Tambo. But one of the
• 27:18
  Speaker 3: reasons why grass splits are so unpredictive in golf is
• 27:23
  Speaker 3: just because of the way the schedule works on tour,
• 27:25
  Speaker 3: where you get like the Florida Swing, you get the
• 27:28
  Speaker 3: California Swing, you get pockets of the schedule where you're
• 27:31
  Speaker 3: playing similar grass types week in, week out, and so
• 27:35
  Speaker 3: particularly like with putting splits, especially if you go to
• 27:38
  Speaker 3: the Florida Swing where your alignment is out of whack
• 27:41
  Speaker 3: on the greens and you put poorly for four consecutive weeks,
• 27:45
  Speaker 3: not because you're bad on Bermuda, but because your alignment stinks,
• 27:49
  Speaker 3: You're gonna have bad Bermuda putting splits for the next
• 27:52
  Speaker 3: like five years, no matter what you do in those
• 27:55
  Speaker 3: other Bermuda events. It's just that powerful. The sample size
• 27:59
  Speaker 3: is that small that these like specific pockets can just really,
• 28:04
  Speaker 3: really overpower the data, and consequently you just get way
• 28:09
  Speaker 3: too much small sample variants in these splits and they
• 28:12
  Speaker 3: they're just not predictive at all.
• 28:14
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I got so many thoughts, but I won't give
• 28:15
  Speaker 2: them all just because it's not worth it. But I
• 28:17
  Speaker 2: was glad your stuff agreed, and I was gonna steal
• 28:20
  Speaker 2: the peed overseet lines that that's my quant My guy
• 28:22
  Speaker 2: comes through with the data in my favor for what
• 28:24
  Speaker 2: Usually I'm like hoping it's going my way and what
• 28:26
  Speaker 2: I want to say, and then Alex backs it up.
• 28:27
  Speaker 2: This one worked out in my favorite because he said
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: we've got it, but it also doesn't signal it.
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: So many things you said there were accurate and like
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: just how I felt about it.
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: And then the other thing is like from a skill
• 28:36
  Speaker 2: set lineup, I've seen people tell them I'm just gonna
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: take all guys that are good on Bermuta. It's like
• 28:40
  Speaker 2: you're maybe they are, and maybe their baseline says this,
• 28:42
  Speaker 2: that's all good stuff. I get it, I'm saying, but like,
• 28:45
  Speaker 2: if you're doing that, I mean you're still trying to
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: line up six great putters on this week in their
• 28:49
  Speaker 2: two days that make sure they get through and make
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: the cut, and they continued over the weekend, and all
• 28:52
  Speaker 2: that was that easy. I don't care how good a
• 28:55
  Speaker 2: sports better here like the books, will still take your
• 28:58
  Speaker 2: six man make the cut parlays.
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: If that that's what you want to fire off on
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: all day.
• 29:01
  Speaker 2: And if you really just had that and all you
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: need to do is put well enough to make a cut,
• 29:03
  Speaker 2: you could fire a bunch of money on that, and
• 29:06
  Speaker 2: now you have to worry about the top heavy or
• 29:08
  Speaker 2: the exact six right or all.
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: You could just do that.
• 29:10
  Speaker 2: So a skill build lineup around something like this is
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: also tricky for me when people say that. And I
• 29:15
  Speaker 2: know when I'm getting a text on Wednesday morning about
• 29:17
  Speaker 2: one and done from my dad saying I kind of
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: like Harmon this week, but he can't really put good
• 29:22
  Speaker 2: on Bermuda. I'm like, ah, tells me everything I need
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: to know about that situation, because I definitely like Brian
• 29:27
  Speaker 2: Harmon this week, and I'm not concerned about how he
• 29:29
  Speaker 2: puts on Bermuda because to me, that just won't be
• 29:31
  Speaker 2: the reason ever that it will fall back on. I
• 29:33
  Speaker 2: like your alignment example, somebody could just be off for
• 29:35
  Speaker 2: a bit and you know that on a swing and
• 29:38
  Speaker 2: it affects them because of that, because the Florida swing
• 29:40
  Speaker 2: or whatever it might be, or they're bad on Poe
• 29:41
  Speaker 2: because their Callie swing didn't go well this year and
• 29:43
  Speaker 2: it could have been something else completely.
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: So I love that call there also, But.
• 29:49
  Speaker 3: It this reminds me of just the conversation we'll have.
• 29:50
  Speaker 3: We'll have this conversation again when we talk more about
• 29:53
  Speaker 3: some of the splits this week. But the other thing
• 29:56
  Speaker 3: that I'd say here is like, whenever you're using splits,
• 29:59
  Speaker 3: So I'm sure there are people out there who aren't
• 30:01
  Speaker 3: convinced yet they shouldn't be using Bermuda grass type splits.
• 30:04
  Speaker 3: So to those people, I would just say, make sure
• 30:06
  Speaker 3: you're using them in a directionally, in just a directional way.
• 30:09
  Speaker 3: And so what I mean by that is like, find
• 30:11
  Speaker 3: six players who project well. They check all the boxes anyway,
• 30:17
  Speaker 3: and the fact that they are quote unquote good on
• 30:20
  Speaker 3: bermuda is just a bonus. You're not taking someone who
• 30:23
  Speaker 3: projects poorly because the split works in their favor, he's
• 30:28
  Speaker 3: already a good play. If Bermuda happens to be predictive,
• 30:31
  Speaker 3: you just get that bonus, and it's a cherry on top.
• 30:34
  Speaker 3: So if you're gonna use splits like like a grass type.
• 30:38
  Speaker 3: That's the way to do it.
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 30:40
  Speaker 2: No, I love that call that it's not like this
• 30:42
  Speaker 2: or this is this and this and you get that set.
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: Up of it.
• 30:46
  Speaker 3: So we just got another question that is like this
• 30:50
  Speaker 3: is this is my favorite one to talk about this week.
• 30:53
  Speaker 3: If wanting to play well was predictive of success, how
• 31:01
  Speaker 3: would anybody ever play poorly? Right? Motive motivation. It's one
• 31:07
  Speaker 3: thing when you're talking about, you know, an NBA game
• 31:11
  Speaker 3: where there are five guys on the court and if
• 31:13
  Speaker 3: one guy is like super motivated to make the other
• 31:17
  Speaker 3: team pay and look silly and they want to go
• 31:19
  Speaker 3: out and usually they take fifteen shots a game, and
• 31:21
  Speaker 3: they want to take thirty shots a game, they can, right,
• 31:25
  Speaker 3: They can go out there and they can have more
• 31:26
  Speaker 3: volume than usual. It's not like somebody who needs to
• 31:30
  Speaker 3: do really well in the FedEx Cup can go out
• 31:32
  Speaker 3: and play one hundred holes this week instead of seventy two.
• 31:36
  Speaker 3: Motivation just doesn't have any effect whatsoever on golf performance.
• 31:41
  Speaker 3: And honestly, like, if anything, it's weird to me that
• 31:44
  Speaker 3: we talk so much about pressure and golf and people
• 31:47
  Speaker 3: are so quick to talk about guys who like can't
• 31:50
  Speaker 3: get it done under pressure, and then all of a sudden,
• 31:52
  Speaker 3: when they come up with the pressure of like needing
• 31:54
  Speaker 3: to play really well to make the FedEx Cup playoffs,
• 31:58
  Speaker 3: I'm surprised that the narrative isn't oh, he's got to
• 32:01
  Speaker 3: do well this week, but he sucks under pressure, so
• 32:02
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna fade him. It's it's always the only narrative
• 32:05
  Speaker 3: we hear here is like, oh, he's got to play well,
• 32:08
  Speaker 3: so I'm gonna play him this week, And I just.
• 32:10
  Speaker 2: Always only outside the line. They never talk about the
• 32:12
  Speaker 2: guy that just that they would be passing. Those guys
• 32:14
  Speaker 2: are good, they're good enough because they're inside the lines. Like, no,
• 32:16
  Speaker 2: they can fall out this week if this happens, and
• 32:18
  Speaker 2: no one talks about them either.
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: That's the other thing.
• 32:21
  Speaker 3: Mm hmm. It's a great point. I It confuses me
• 32:24
  Speaker 3: every year, but we see it, and I think, like,
• 32:28
  Speaker 3: just any time you're thinking about playing a narrative, just
• 32:32
  Speaker 3: ask yourself, like what is it that I'm actually asking?
• 32:34
  Speaker 3: And here you're asking, does wanting to play well under
• 32:38
  Speaker 3: this type of pressure make it more likely that he's
• 32:40
  Speaker 3: going to do so? Does it actually change, you know,
• 32:43
  Speaker 3: his motivation? For the week compared to what his motivation
• 32:46
  Speaker 3: was at the Heritage or the Waste Management Phoenix Open. No,
• 32:51
  Speaker 3: they wanted to play well those weeks too. A lot
• 32:53
  Speaker 3: of the time guys want to play well and they
• 32:56
  Speaker 3: can't play well because they're struggling. And this week is
• 32:58
  Speaker 3: no different.
• 32:59
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and to be fair, I gotta get my man
• 33:00
  Speaker 2: Sites five O one a little credit because he's a
• 33:03
  Speaker 2: veteran around here, says but how much is the public
• 33:07
  Speaker 2: going to look at this to make the playoff stuff?
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: I agree with Alex fullyo and everything he said.
• 33:11
  Speaker 2: I would have said it the same way, but at
• 33:12
  Speaker 2: least Sites was asking about what people actually do with it.
• 33:15
  Speaker 2: I think the DFS community plays less into this. Then
• 33:18
  Speaker 2: they do stuff like Bermuda putting splits and like certain
• 33:20
  Speaker 2: other factors as opposed to like this does get talked about.
• 33:24
  Speaker 2: To Scooter's point, on all the PG they have to
• 33:27
  Speaker 2: make their season end exciting, and it's like the last week,
• 33:30
  Speaker 2: even though they do a horrible job of it with
• 33:32
  Speaker 2: the camera crew, they've got a little bit better the
• 33:34
  Speaker 2: last couple of years, but like of actually following it,
• 33:35
  Speaker 2: they don't usually do a great job, but they kind
• 33:38
  Speaker 2: of get into it near the end of the round
• 33:39
  Speaker 2: four of like, Okay, we kind of here's this shot,
• 33:42
  Speaker 2: means this, and here's their position now, and but kind
• 33:44
  Speaker 2: of like the cut line, they're pretty bad with actually
• 33:46
  Speaker 2: predicting what it's going to be.
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: So you have a follow up, go ahead.
• 33:49
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 33:50
  Speaker 3: I'd also say, like, what we don't see the public
• 33:53
  Speaker 3: do is go play every single guy from like seventy
• 33:58
  Speaker 3: first through eightieth in the faedex. But what we do
• 34:01
  Speaker 3: typically see is one or two of those guys are
• 34:04
  Speaker 3: going to get steamed and end up being more popular
• 34:07
  Speaker 3: than what ownership projections around the industry say. So maybe
• 34:10
  Speaker 3: that's Meiser, maybe it's Keegan, maybe it's key for maybe
• 34:13
  Speaker 3: it's Coyven who's right on the edge, right, But like
• 34:16
  Speaker 3: obviously people who are playing Coyvin are doing so mostly
• 34:18
  Speaker 3: because the guy looks like an absolute superstar already, not
• 34:21
  Speaker 3: because they think he needs that extra remotivation. But somebody
• 34:25
  Speaker 3: in this range, maybe it's Matt Wallace at eighty or
• 34:28
  Speaker 3: Davis Thompson eighty one or super at eighty two, somebody
• 34:32
  Speaker 3: in this range is going to come in like five
• 34:34
  Speaker 3: percentage points more popular than people expected for this reason
• 34:37
  Speaker 3: because they're they just get like obsessed with this thought of, Oh,
• 34:40
  Speaker 3: he really needs it this week, so I think he's
• 34:42
  Speaker 3: gonna get it done.
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: Yeah, they really needed it.
• 34:45
  Speaker 2: They only really needed this week, though they didn't really
• 34:47
  Speaker 2: need it all season long.
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: Like you said earlier, that's my always thing.
• 34:49
  Speaker 2: You know, the reason they're on the outside is because
• 34:52
  Speaker 2: they weren't good enough to get on the inside yet. Yeah,
• 34:54
  Speaker 2: and maybe they do, maybe they don't, but they're trying
• 34:56
  Speaker 2: every week. I can assure you that. So, all right,
• 34:58
  Speaker 2: where do you want to go next this? I've seen
• 35:00
  Speaker 2: a little bit of love for.
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: Rio.
• 35:04
  Speaker 2: I've seen some Ben Coles, I've seen some Sung Jay.
• 35:07
  Speaker 2: They're both at seventy seven hundred. I've seen Aaron Rye
• 35:09
  Speaker 2: fits nicely into this at eighty eight hundred. I know
• 35:11
  Speaker 2: he looks quite popular for the eight k range Meisner
• 35:14
  Speaker 2: who you mentioned earlier. Maybe people do love Doug gim
• 35:16
  Speaker 2: and they're you know, they're with you and I on
• 35:18
  Speaker 2: the guy that sort of had to go back to
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: him in certain spots. But what else do you see
• 35:22
  Speaker 2: popping into the common build here?
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: As we build this up.
• 35:25
  Speaker 3: I think the next place to go this isn't necessarily
• 35:27
  Speaker 3: like the order in which people will build lineups. But
• 35:29
  Speaker 3: there's a collection of guys in the upper sevens that
• 35:31
  Speaker 3: I think I'll have a chance to be twenty or
• 35:34
  Speaker 3: more percent owned in single entries. Doug Gim seventy eight,
• 35:37
  Speaker 3: Ben Coles seventy seven, Sung j seventy seven. I've got
• 35:41
  Speaker 3: them all like basically twenty percent exactly in single entries.
• 35:44
  Speaker 3: So I think at least two of those guys are
• 35:48
  Speaker 3: probably in the common build. You can even put in
• 35:50
  Speaker 3: all three and then see what's left if I put.
• 35:53
  Speaker 2: In all three, which I don't think is crazy here.
• 35:55
  Speaker 2: I really think Rai is just the guy that fits
• 35:58
  Speaker 2: a lot of it. Like you build a balance build
• 35:59
  Speaker 2: with Tom Kim, you could fit Aaron Rye. If you
• 36:01
  Speaker 2: build a you could do anything you want pretty much
• 36:04
  Speaker 2: with Aaron Ryan. I'm not saying he's gonna get extremely steamed,
• 36:06
  Speaker 2: but I do see him like fifteen to twenty being
• 36:08
  Speaker 2: realistic and in the eight K range. That kind of
• 36:10
  Speaker 2: does pop, and then it also leaves you in the
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: range of the seventy six seventy five. Again, there's so
• 36:16
  Speaker 2: many guys this week, so you can leave a couple
• 36:18
  Speaker 2: hundred bucks, no problem.
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: We've talked about this in the past.
• 36:20
  Speaker 2: It's like, I don't care if you like Rasmus or
• 36:23
  Speaker 2: Smally or Wallace or Bez or JT. Post And I've
• 36:26
  Speaker 2: heard a lot of love for like if you build
• 36:28
  Speaker 2: something like that, Yep, maybe Chris Kirks your guy.
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 36:31
  Speaker 2: I'm just saying, like, do you feel like that's kind
• 36:33
  Speaker 2: of how people are building somewhere in this vicinity?
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: Or maybe it's Bud Cawley. I'm not sure, but we
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: only talk about leaving a little bit.
• 36:40
  Speaker 2: Like again, you don't have to go crazy. You've done
• 36:41
  Speaker 2: the data on this, but like, let's say it's even
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: rio you have three hundred bucks left, and that's to
• 36:46
  Speaker 2: say you could also.
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: Get now.
• 36:49
  Speaker 2: Aaron Rye to Ben Griffin, for example. But somewhere in
• 36:54
  Speaker 2: these builds, like maybe we got.
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: The four V four is what I'm feeling here.
• 36:57
  Speaker 3: Yes, I completely agree. I think Rai is probably that
• 37:02
  Speaker 3: guy in like the Upper Eights that everyone gravitates to
• 37:05
  Speaker 3: down here, Kali Hasatsune. Both I think have a chance
• 37:09
  Speaker 3: to be quite popular. Jordan Smith should get some, post
• 37:11
  Speaker 3: In should get some so I think we kind of
• 37:14
  Speaker 3: nailed it here. I think the second most popular type
• 37:17
  Speaker 3: of build then would just take like you could do
• 37:22
  Speaker 3: two things. Number one, you could get rid of one
• 37:24
  Speaker 3: of those seven k guys and go low where there
• 37:29
  Speaker 3: isn't a popular guy. It's just that there are so
• 37:32
  Speaker 3: many guys who are you know, below seventy three hundred,
• 37:35
  Speaker 3: call it that there are gonna be lines that have
• 37:38
  Speaker 3: like one guy. Pat's favorite guy was like David Chafield
• 37:41
  Speaker 3: at sixty three. He's certainly not gonna be popular.
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: But is the build where.
• 37:44
  Speaker 3: Someone takes one chance so that they can get a
• 37:48
  Speaker 3: third guy like in the Aaron Rye range, So maybe
• 37:52
  Speaker 3: it's Rye and Alex Fitzpatrick after Cam Young that will
• 37:56
  Speaker 3: be popular, and then the final build will be you
• 37:58
  Speaker 3: come down from Cam Jung to get three nine k
• 38:02
  Speaker 3: guys something like that, where maybe it's you know, hit
• 38:04
  Speaker 3: Decky Girard Rye as the start, and then you can
• 38:07
  Speaker 3: do something very similar to what we have here already.
• 38:10
  Speaker 3: So that's the sort of I think variations. But I
• 38:14
  Speaker 3: would also say, like we've made this point a bunch
• 38:18
  Speaker 3: in the last two weeks because we keep getting this
• 38:20
  Speaker 3: pricing When the most expensive guy is ten thousand dollars
• 38:24
  Speaker 3: four hundred, there's just not a whole lot that you
• 38:27
  Speaker 3: can do from a roster construction standpoint, that's gonna make
• 38:30
  Speaker 3: you different because all the roster constructions are like right there, right,
• 38:33
  Speaker 3: so you just you can't really get away from the
• 38:36
  Speaker 3: popular construction build. You have to do it through the
• 38:38
  Speaker 3: players you're using.
• 38:40
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's a different. Yeah, you said this
• 38:44
  Speaker 2: last time, and I agree with it. But now actually
• 38:45
  Speaker 2: we're gonna change just one thing in my opinion that
• 38:47
  Speaker 2: I would say like, but we're probably go saying the
• 38:49
  Speaker 2: same thing differently. But I think like you can't do
• 38:51
  Speaker 2: much from a roster composition. You can't do like the
• 38:55
  Speaker 2: I mean you could do the Cam Young Koivin then
• 38:57
  Speaker 2: yes you'll be different, but you also need to really
• 38:59
  Speaker 2: push Yeah, can that get there?
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: Absolutely?
• 39:01
  Speaker 2: You're like, you don't need much leverage on that composition
• 39:04
  Speaker 2: versus the field because not many people are going to
• 39:06
  Speaker 2: have it because it's bad. That's like overall, it's probably bad.
• 39:09
  Speaker 2: Anything can be good, the result.
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: Can be good, but the process can be bad.
• 39:13
  Speaker 2: But from a construction perspective, this is where I think
• 39:16
  Speaker 2: it gets people a little bit confused. Is like if
• 39:19
  Speaker 2: no one's playing a weather angle this week, but you
• 39:21
  Speaker 2: found six am guys that you like, well, your construction
• 39:24
  Speaker 2: is different even though your composition is similar. And that's
• 39:27
  Speaker 2: where we do so well pairing together of like I said,
• 39:30
  Speaker 2: with the dfsmastermind dot com, you get the foundation of
• 39:32
  Speaker 2: like that thought. But then I can take your data
• 39:35
  Speaker 2: and your splits and say like, well, actually I found
• 39:38
  Speaker 2: this as well. These guys all have these good splits
• 39:41
  Speaker 2: and they fit this and five out of six are
• 39:44
  Speaker 2: already in this wave. And Alex and I have talked
• 39:45
  Speaker 2: a ton all season long on PGADFS leverage lane of like,
• 39:49
  Speaker 2: if you're already going five guys in that ali, why
• 39:52
  Speaker 2: not go six?
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: Oh but it leaves three hundred bucks on the table?
• 39:55
  Speaker 2: Well, that still fits what Alex is talking about sot
• 39:57
  Speaker 2: A forty nine to seven and up like, wow, I've
• 39:59
  Speaker 2: put it all together.
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: Does it mean it will work?
• 40:02
  Speaker 2: No, But there's almost no care in the world beyond
• 40:06
  Speaker 2: you are picking the good guys that fit the splits
• 40:08
  Speaker 2: of like that's why they became your plays. I didn't
• 40:12
  Speaker 2: sit back and be like, well I need to have
• 40:13
  Speaker 2: this guy and I need have this guy. I thought
• 40:15
  Speaker 2: about construction and then applied it. Composition very similar to
• 40:19
  Speaker 2: what everybody else is doing. Construction different seems like they're
• 40:23
  Speaker 2: the same thing, but they're slightly different. So I think
• 40:24
  Speaker 2: that's kind of my angle. One note I'll say, is
• 40:27
  Speaker 2: just this lineup that you brought up. I definitely think
• 40:31
  Speaker 2: people are doing this. I was on the so Spencer
• 40:35
  Speaker 2: put put out the King of the Draft, right, and
• 40:37
  Speaker 2: he's doing this thing all season long, the sixty four bracket.
• 40:40
  Speaker 2: I was in the I'm down to the sweet sixteen
• 40:41
  Speaker 2: against PGA to out John Awesome. Dude, we put together
• 40:44
  Speaker 2: our lineups. He's got Ben Griffin winning this week, so
• 40:47
  Speaker 2: he had Ben Griffin, but he also had Davis Chatfield
• 40:50
  Speaker 2: and Cam Young. I have Aaron Ryan Sung Jam on
• 40:54
  Speaker 2: my bill.
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: Just it's one v one, like you can't take the
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: same dudes or anything.
• 40:57
  Speaker 2: So it's like I picked one, he picks two vice
• 40:59
  Speaker 2: versa type a snake back and forth. Davis Chatfield's not
• 41:03
  Speaker 2: gonna project the best, but I saw him live at
• 41:05
  Speaker 2: the three. I'm just a couple of weeks ago. Dude
• 41:07
  Speaker 2: hits it five, like I mean, obviously very talented. So
• 41:10
  Speaker 2: if he gets there even though the median is ten off,
• 41:13
  Speaker 2: That's where I think. Also people get confused, this is
• 41:15
  Speaker 2: not NBA. This eighty eight for Cam Young, that could
• 41:20
  Speaker 2: be forty and he somehow misses the cut.
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: Sounds crazy, but it's possible, very unlikely.
• 41:24
  Speaker 2: I get it and say, if he does, though you're
• 41:25
  Speaker 2: talking forty your last probably forty five or less.
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: If there's some scoring out there.
• 41:29
  Speaker 2: If he gets there all the way, that's one hundred
• 41:31
  Speaker 2: and twenty tow one hundred and thirty to whatever the
• 41:33
  Speaker 2: number is. So it's like that's where people confuse it,
• 41:36
  Speaker 2: Like ten is not mattering at all in this And
• 41:38
  Speaker 2: I think this would be the build you were talking about,
• 41:40
  Speaker 2: because this where you can kind of get to like
• 41:41
  Speaker 2: a Cam Young, Griffin and Rye and all you gotta
• 41:44
  Speaker 2: do is take a shot on Davis Chadfield and you
• 41:46
  Speaker 2: still land on Sung Jay and Cole's like, that's pretty
• 41:48
  Speaker 2: good lineup. If people will say, if Chatfield comes through
• 41:52
  Speaker 2: and then you know this thing will be five or
• 41:53
  Speaker 2: six with Cam Young like riding the cut line down
• 41:56
  Speaker 2: the stretch or something.
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: That's typically how this goes.
• 41:58
  Speaker 2: But do you have any other thoughts on just that
• 41:59
  Speaker 2: perspect before we go into the how to leverage it?
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: Yeah?
• 42:02
  Speaker 3: I mean you made an awesome point kind of separating
• 42:05
  Speaker 3: composition from construction Honestly, when I said construction, like I
• 42:08
  Speaker 3: was talking about the composition. The way that I'll wrap
• 42:12
  Speaker 3: a bow on this conversation is whenever we talk about
• 42:16
  Speaker 3: deviating from a construction perspective and not just the players
• 42:20
  Speaker 3: that you play, what we're getting at, Like, the concept
• 42:23
  Speaker 3: that we're pointing to is this concept of lower conditional ownership,
• 42:29
  Speaker 3: lower combinatorial ownership on two players, where you can play
• 42:32
  Speaker 3: a guy at fifteen percent and another guy at fifteen
• 42:35
  Speaker 3: percent and that be a unique combination of players. And
• 42:39
  Speaker 3: so when we're talking about deviating from a composition perspective,
• 42:44
  Speaker 3: when what we're talking about, like a lot of the
• 42:46
  Speaker 3: time this year, we've said, you know, oh, the eight
• 42:48
  Speaker 3: K range is just totally overlooked this week. Essentially, what
• 42:52
  Speaker 3: that means is there are so many guys playing the
• 42:54
  Speaker 3: nine K range and so many playing the seven K
• 42:55
  Speaker 3: range that when people get to the eight K range,
• 42:58
  Speaker 3: they're picking between players. So if you take two of
• 43:01
  Speaker 3: those guys, no one else has that combination. Everyone else
• 43:05
  Speaker 3: has just picked between the guys that you have, and
• 43:08
  Speaker 3: so you get that unique combination. It's the same thing
• 43:11
  Speaker 3: that you just talked about by saying, Okay, we don't
• 43:14
  Speaker 3: have a way to do that from a composition standpoint,
• 43:17
  Speaker 3: but we can through a wave stack when no one
• 43:19
  Speaker 3: else is wave stacking, so we can still find that
• 43:21
  Speaker 3: like unique combination of players because so few people are
• 43:24
  Speaker 3: going to have all six guys in one wave or
• 43:27
  Speaker 3: five of six in one wave. So that's what we're
• 43:30
  Speaker 3: getting out whenever we talk about being unique with our
• 43:33
  Speaker 3: roster construction, that's what we're pointing to. We're talking about
• 43:37
  Speaker 3: getting unique combinations of players who aren't as they're not
• 43:41
  Speaker 3: necessarily low owned. Sometimes it's hard to find really low
• 43:43
  Speaker 3: owned guys who have a high probability of success, but
• 43:46
  Speaker 3: we can find low owned combinations of players who are
• 43:49
  Speaker 3: both likely to succeed.
• 43:51
  Speaker 2: Yeah, can't stress it enough. That's the importance of this game.
• 43:54
  Speaker 2: And that's again it takes experience. You know, it's going
• 43:56
  Speaker 2: to read a book or watch a module or jump
• 43:58
  Speaker 2: into discord and figure it all out, but you have
• 44:01
  Speaker 2: to start somewhere and at some point. And for me,
• 44:02
  Speaker 2: it's always been about like being able to get a
• 44:05
  Speaker 2: personal trainer. They can definitely teach me a lot more
• 44:07
  Speaker 2: about nutrition and lifting weights and proper form and.
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: Ways to do things and get better. Like so I
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: would pay for that.
• 44:12
  Speaker 2: If I want to get good at golf, I can
• 44:14
  Speaker 2: keep hitting the course and just having fun with the boys,
• 44:16
  Speaker 2: or I can actually go out and get lessons and
• 44:19
  Speaker 2: then try and really have fun with the boys.
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: Because no, it's a lot more fun.
• 44:22
  Speaker 2: When you're having fun and hitting good shots. So it's
• 44:25
  Speaker 2: like there's there's always that, And that's the thing about DFS.
• 44:27
  Speaker 2: It always feels better when you're getting more shots on goal,
• 44:29
  Speaker 2: if you will, if you're getting more opportunities, and that's
• 44:32
  Speaker 2: what we're trying to help you, you know, get into
• 44:34
  Speaker 2: here and understand it a little bit better. But it's
• 44:36
  Speaker 2: a grand scheme overview my favorite line to say. But
• 44:38
  Speaker 2: it's like, that's really what we're looking at. All the
• 44:41
  Speaker 2: other stuff is in the weeds, and you got to
• 44:42
  Speaker 2: get in those weeds to be able to find this stuff.
• 44:44
  Speaker 2: But yeah, this is another way people will build this week.
• 44:47
  Speaker 2: What are some of the ways you're thinking? Just right
• 44:49
  Speaker 2: off the top, Like I mentioned it earlier, I'll think
• 44:51
  Speaker 2: of this one. You do still have seventy three hundred
• 44:55
  Speaker 2: left and change per player if you did do the
• 44:57
  Speaker 2: double stud build. But that also makes me think won't
• 45:00
  Speaker 2: shy away from it as much as I might think,
• 45:02
  Speaker 2: I don't think it'll be the popular build, but because
• 45:04
  Speaker 2: it's so possible. The other tricky for me is that
• 45:08
  Speaker 2: it does land you in the common build this week
• 45:10
  Speaker 2: is like three seven K guys plus because even the
• 45:12
  Speaker 2: Chatfield build only had two, but that took a chat Field.
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: If someone had a went with a higher.
• 45:18
  Speaker 2: You know, a lower seven K guy instead of him,
• 45:20
  Speaker 2: you still could have moved things around and drop Griffin
• 45:22
  Speaker 2: down to like Meisner or something and maybe made it work.
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: So that's my point.
• 45:26
  Speaker 2: Of three seven k guys is going to be popular,
• 45:31
  Speaker 2: But we have enough this week to play at all
• 45:35
  Speaker 2: different ranges of ownership and possibilities and combinations that you
• 45:38
  Speaker 2: can still do it no problem, which is I would
• 45:40
  Speaker 2: look at it from that perspective. But what are some
• 45:42
  Speaker 2: other ways you can think this week are out there
• 45:44
  Speaker 2: to leverage the Chalk build.
• 45:46
  Speaker 3: The one that comes to mind first of all, I
• 45:49
  Speaker 3: agree with all your points here on the seven K range,
• 45:51
  Speaker 3: but the first one that comes to my mind is
• 45:53
  Speaker 3: the ownership up top is massive, Cam Young, I've got
• 45:57
  Speaker 3: it forty eight percent in sing Luntries. I don't know
• 45:59
  Speaker 3: if it's gonna come down, And honestly, might even go
• 46:01
  Speaker 3: up with the With the final update tonight, we'll see
• 46:04
  Speaker 3: coyven around twenty five percent Hitdeki a little bit over
• 46:06
  Speaker 3: thirty percent. That's a ton of lineups that are starting
• 46:11
  Speaker 3: with either Kim Coiven or Hideki. What if you start
• 46:14
  Speaker 3: your lineup with like Girard and Tom Kim or JT
• 46:17
  Speaker 3: and Ben Griffin something like that. So to me, that's
• 46:20
  Speaker 3: the first one that comes to mind. Is just a
• 46:23
  Speaker 3: lower starting point where you can still then use It's
• 46:26
  Speaker 3: not like those guys are contrarian, right, but as the
• 46:29
  Speaker 3: first guy in, they probably are contrarian. So maybe you
• 46:31
  Speaker 3: get a unique combination of three if you go like
• 46:35
  Speaker 3: Gerard Griffin and Keigan Bradley or something like that. So
• 46:39
  Speaker 3: that's the first one that comes to my mind.
• 46:40
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and I look at stuff like this too, but like,
• 46:43
  Speaker 2: just real quick, if I'm gonna do the chalk version
• 46:45
  Speaker 2: of this after the fact, that I just want to
• 46:46
  Speaker 2: see because it leaves you around seventy eight to fifty.
• 46:48
  Speaker 2: But let's just say we could still get a guy
• 46:50
  Speaker 2: like maybe it comes down to Meisner in a second,
• 46:52
  Speaker 2: but I just want to see the like the Sung J.
• 46:54
  Speaker 2: Coles version, And then there's somebody at seventy two hundred
• 46:58
  Speaker 2: that yo, you mentioned key for early supers there like
• 47:01
  Speaker 2: whoever people end up playing Danny McCarthy, Billy Horschel. I
• 47:05
  Speaker 2: know you heard some feelings I think last week, but
• 47:07
  Speaker 2: just noting that, I'm just gonna plug in, who'd you
• 47:10
  Speaker 2: say earlier, Kiefer.
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: It's like getting twenty five points again. You get away
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: with it, you can do it totally. It's golf.
• 47:16
  Speaker 2: I'm not saying that the medians everything. I'm just saying
• 47:19
  Speaker 2: i'd be looking for a way to target this. This
• 47:22
  Speaker 2: to me is like not that much. You're putting yourself
• 47:24
  Speaker 2: in the same corner as everyone else here. By just
• 47:26
  Speaker 2: separating here in a single entry, higher dollars, smaller field,
• 47:30
  Speaker 2: this could be enough. You've dropped from almost one hundred
• 47:32
  Speaker 2: percent total ownership. It's not just about total by the way,
• 47:35
  Speaker 2: like Alex talks about, but just to note it, like
• 47:36
  Speaker 2: you've dropped almost twenty percent in total ownership, but you
• 47:40
  Speaker 2: also have a two percenter nobody over twenty Maybe things
• 47:44
  Speaker 2: like there's other ways that you can look at it,
• 47:47
  Speaker 2: but I think, like, do you have a thought around?
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: Okay, you start with who's the other one? He said, JT. Griffin.
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: Let's say I think you mentioned.
• 47:54
  Speaker 2: And then you're off the beaten path with JT alone
• 47:59
  Speaker 2: against the guys around him.
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: Does he have double digit? Sure?
• 48:01
  Speaker 2: But we talk about some of the guys around him
• 48:03
  Speaker 2: having you know, potentially thirty plus in single entry. So
• 48:06
  Speaker 2: there's that, and then you're going with Ben Griffin next,
• 48:09
  Speaker 2: and that's fine, he's got a little bit of ownership.
• 48:11
  Speaker 2: But do you have any thought on like where you
• 48:12
  Speaker 2: go next when people are building out their single entry
• 48:15
  Speaker 2: do you stay off those popular plays because you're already
• 48:19
  Speaker 2: off the beaten path or do you try and just
• 48:21
  Speaker 2: tighten it up from there?
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: What's your thoughts around that?
• 48:24
  Speaker 3: Yeah? I think it. I think it depends on well, obviously,
• 48:30
  Speaker 3: like for one thing, it depends slate to slate, but
• 48:32
  Speaker 3: for this specific slate, I think it mostly just depends
• 48:35
  Speaker 3: on who you actually like where, Like where's your conviction.
• 48:40
  Speaker 3: Is your conviction on Doug gimm Sung JM and Ben
• 48:43
  Speaker 3: Coles as being by far the best plays in the
• 48:45
  Speaker 3: seven K range? If it is, okay, maybe you go
• 48:47
  Speaker 3: with two of them and now just make sure you
• 48:50
  Speaker 3: have one additional separator or something like that. If instead
• 48:53
  Speaker 3: you say, you know, I think that gim M and
• 48:57
  Speaker 3: Coles are solid plays this week, but I don't think
• 48:59
  Speaker 3: they're better than Alex Smalley at five percent or Blades
• 49:03
  Speaker 3: Brown at ten percent or Alex Norin at five percent.
• 49:06
  Speaker 3: Then you have no incentive to add all that ownership
• 49:10
  Speaker 3: to the lineup, so then you can just go off
• 49:11
  Speaker 3: the beaten pass. So I think that's the number one
• 49:14
  Speaker 3: way I would answer that is like, you're not getting
• 49:18
  Speaker 3: different from this point just for the sake of getting different.
• 49:22
  Speaker 3: But if you like more contrarian players, I have no
• 49:25
  Speaker 3: issue going to them because I don't think that the
• 49:29
  Speaker 3: chalk this week is like significantly more likely to succeed
• 49:33
  Speaker 3: than a lot of the contrarian options around them.
• 49:35
  Speaker 2: I think, yeah, I'd look at it that way completely.
• 49:37
  Speaker 2: And I would also like flip this exact setup where
• 49:40
  Speaker 2: it's like, if you true it's what you said about
• 49:41
  Speaker 2: the conviction, if you truly think that, like these are
• 49:45
  Speaker 2: just bad prices on these guys and they should be
• 49:47
  Speaker 2: so much more, and like, yeah, you get there's gonna
• 49:49
  Speaker 2: be ownership attached. This puts you with eighty nine hundred
• 49:52
  Speaker 2: and you say, Okay, Now you look at it and say, well,
• 49:54
  Speaker 2: I don't think I want to add more chalk in
• 49:56
  Speaker 2: Aaron Rye, I'm saying the upper seven K range is
• 49:59
  Speaker 2: good chalk again, teach hero on. Some of that's nuts,
• 50:01
  Speaker 2: that's donkey chalk. I'll flip it in a second. But
• 50:03
  Speaker 2: if that's what you truly think, then this is where
• 50:05
  Speaker 2: I think you could say.
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: Okay, I'm gonna look up and see.
• 50:09
  Speaker 2: Now I don't want to continue to pile chalk into
• 50:12
  Speaker 2: this lineup. I am gonna look at what does Justin
• 50:15
  Speaker 2: Thomas do for me. I'm kind of indifferent up top,
• 50:18
  Speaker 2: but I don't want to play the same guys everyone
• 50:19
  Speaker 2: else is. Now now that I've got Justin Thomas and
• 50:23
  Speaker 2: Ryan Girard, can I get away with.
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: A mac Meiser, who's gonna get a little bit?
• 50:28
  Speaker 2: It looks like way more people are on Keegan or
• 50:30
  Speaker 2: on Rye, and way more people are on these seven
• 50:32
  Speaker 2: K guys. Well, I'm with them on the seven K guys.
• 50:35
  Speaker 2: But now that I already have Girard and JT with
• 50:39
  Speaker 2: a JT start, and I don't have Cam Young, Coven, Hedeki, Rye, Fitzpatrick,
• 50:46
  Speaker 2: any of the low seven K guys, you know what,
• 50:50
  Speaker 2: I can click mac Meiser in there and I'm four seventeen,
• 50:54
  Speaker 2: I'm only twelve points off. I'm way lower on the
• 50:58
  Speaker 2: so I'm ten percent lower still on the total ownership.
• 51:01
  Speaker 2: I have some guys that are sort of right there.
• 51:03
  Speaker 2: It's a little bit more mediocre, like when it comes
• 51:06
  Speaker 2: to the mid range on ownership. But it's more about
• 51:08
  Speaker 2: who you're not playing and like Ryan Giarde should come
• 51:11
  Speaker 2: down to in my opinion, like I think Tom Kim.
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: Will be higher.
• 51:13
  Speaker 2: So these are rough draft ownership numbers, but just noting it.
• 51:17
  Speaker 2: When you're not playing any of these three and you're
• 51:19
  Speaker 2: not playing Tom Kim, and you're not playing Griffin, and
• 51:21
  Speaker 2: you're not playing Rye and you're not playing Fitzpatrick, it's
• 51:25
  Speaker 2: and again field size, contest, selection, all that's gonna matter,
• 51:28
  Speaker 2: But just to show it, it's where your conviction is.
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: On the flip side of that. It's what we said.
• 51:33
  Speaker 2: If you're like, I don't care what anyone says, it's
• 51:34
  Speaker 2: Cam Young time, Well you have seventy nine hundred.
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: What do most people do?
• 51:40
  Speaker 2: Doug am Sung Jay call everything we showed you off
• 51:42
  Speaker 2: the top. It might be where you have to say, okay,
• 51:45
  Speaker 2: let me go down here. Some of the guys I
• 51:48
  Speaker 2: like that nobody's talking about this week. Just using an
• 51:50
  Speaker 2: example is like, I'm not going away from Suber, I'm
• 51:54
  Speaker 2: not going away from McCarthy. I'm gonna try Billy Ho again. Well,
• 51:57
  Speaker 2: now you have nine thousand, you've got unique enough here
• 52:00
  Speaker 2: that you could go. I think you could fit like
• 52:02
  Speaker 2: ry Griffin pretty much and leave money on the table.
• 52:05
  Speaker 2: But realistically, this could also be where you say, okay,
• 52:08
  Speaker 2: Girard probably does come down some and you know Rye
• 52:12
  Speaker 2: fits in. Similarly, it's a little bit lower on the projection.
• 52:15
  Speaker 2: I just picked random guys down there. But again this
• 52:18
  Speaker 2: is a prime example to show you even at the
• 52:20
  Speaker 2: similar eighty eight like eighty nine percent was, while you
• 52:23
  Speaker 2: do have Cam Young, You've got three guys here in
• 52:27
  Speaker 2: single digit already. Girard probably comes down like I mentioned
• 52:31
  Speaker 2: you earlier. So it's really like young Rye not playing
• 52:34
  Speaker 2: that upper seven k range.
• 52:36
  Speaker 1: I'm giving Rye the credit.
• 52:37
  Speaker 2: Stick it with my guy Cam Young up top, and
• 52:39
  Speaker 2: then I'm piling in a bunch of guys below seven
• 52:42
  Speaker 2: percent down below.
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: That can work in your favor as well.
• 52:45
  Speaker 2: Anything else you want to add when it comes from
• 52:47
  Speaker 2: that perspective, I'm just using examples.
• 52:48
  Speaker 1: These aren't builds I would play, but just noting it from.
• 52:50
  Speaker 2: Like you know, what you can see stylistically of what
• 52:54
  Speaker 2: you can build when you're doing it that way.
• 52:56
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't really have any notes on the on
• 52:59
  Speaker 3: the line enough thoughts that you had there, but I
• 53:02
  Speaker 3: will say as I look at the the ownerships, I
• 53:05
  Speaker 3: actually don't think Girard's gonna go down. I think it's
• 53:07
  Speaker 3: more so that just like all your ownerships up top
• 53:12
  Speaker 3: kind of need to go up because there there's just
• 53:14
  Speaker 3: not enough salary owned in what you currently have projected.
• 53:17
  Speaker 3: I would guess so like basically as I go through
• 53:20
  Speaker 3: like what I've got for single entry, Cam forty eight,
• 53:23
  Speaker 3: Coven twenty four, Hitdeci thirty two, j T twenty, Gerard
• 53:28
  Speaker 3: twenty five, Tom Kim nineteen, Ben Griffin sixteen, Like, there's
• 53:32
  Speaker 3: just there's so much room for people to build lineups
• 53:35
  Speaker 3: with multiple of those guys that I think you're just
• 53:37
  Speaker 3: gonna see higher ownerships across the board up top. Yeah.
• 53:41
  Speaker 1: I think that's right.
• 53:43
  Speaker 2: I think it's also to your point, and what you're
• 53:46
  Speaker 2: talking about directly is single entry, where we are going
• 53:48
  Speaker 2: to see that and that's gonna change. And that's why
• 53:50
  Speaker 2: if you again you should know that for the game
• 53:52
  Speaker 2: that you're playing. Alex clearly does and that's important that
• 53:54
  Speaker 2: he's bringing it up for you guys to take advantage of.
• 53:56
  Speaker 2: That is that if that's the case, and it is,
• 53:59
  Speaker 2: that's the good thing about pgadfs and ownership. We won't
• 54:01
  Speaker 2: get it all exactly right, but we know that that
• 54:04
  Speaker 2: concept is definitely correct. And what we're going to see
• 54:06
  Speaker 2: this week that tells you something about the middle right,
• 54:10
  Speaker 2: that tells you that it can't be the same. Now
• 54:12
  Speaker 2: in large field, we often see a little bit different
• 54:14
  Speaker 2: because you know, if Scotty's forty percent and this week
• 54:17
  Speaker 2: could be Cam Young, Cam Young forty percent in single entry,
• 54:20
  Speaker 2: he could still be thirty one in the lottery. And
• 54:23
  Speaker 2: that's because more people went like the mid range or
• 54:25
  Speaker 2: the balance build or whatever it might be. And that's
• 54:27
  Speaker 2: just because there's so many lineups to average it across.
• 54:30
  Speaker 1: In the higher dollars smaller fields, people will tipics. Eh,
• 54:33
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna shy away from Cam Young.
• 54:34
  Speaker 2: I'll look for ways to get different there. But that
• 54:37
  Speaker 2: means what the now we know that Aaron Rye still
• 54:39
  Speaker 2: fits into those but that means anybody that you see
• 54:43
  Speaker 2: like a I'm just making up examples here, but like
• 54:45
  Speaker 2: a Harmon, a Speef, a Nora, and a blades brown
• 54:49
  Speaker 2: guys like that, they could all be a little bit
• 54:51
  Speaker 2: more overlooked because if people are going with that Cam
• 54:54
  Speaker 2: Young quote unquote safety up top, they could also be
• 54:57
  Speaker 2: saying I'm gonna be fine with the Aaron RhE to
• 55:00
  Speaker 2: stick more to these projections and go down from there
• 55:02
  Speaker 2: and then figure it out from that point. So I
• 55:05
  Speaker 2: think that's important to note as well, and that's why
• 55:06
  Speaker 2: contest selection and knowing the tournaments that you're playing in
• 55:09
  Speaker 2: are so important.
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: But I don't have too much else. I do want
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: to ask one last question though, just on this.
• 55:14
  Speaker 2: You know I'm gonna use McNeely and lump him in
• 55:16
  Speaker 2: because we know Griffin is gonna get love, we know Rye,
• 55:19
  Speaker 2: we know some secondary you guys like Fitz, Thompson and Meisner.
• 55:24
  Speaker 2: But what do you think about like this, like Norrin
• 55:27
  Speaker 2: up to McNeely, range of the guys that aren't being
• 55:30
  Speaker 2: talked about because there is McNeely, Keegan, Bradley, Brennan, Koepka,
• 55:34
  Speaker 2: English Harmon, Speeth, Mitchell, Norrin, they're all capable in a
• 55:39
  Speaker 2: field like this is who actually shows up.
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: So do you have any thoughts on as we usually
• 55:43
  Speaker 1: talk about.
• 55:43
  Speaker 2: The eight K range going a little bit overlooked and look,
• 55:47
  Speaker 2: I get rise getting the love and stuff, But my
• 55:49
  Speaker 2: point being, most items we've seen, especially the chalk builds,
• 55:52
  Speaker 2: have one eight K guy.
• 55:53
  Speaker 3: The one guy in this range that I really don't
• 55:56
  Speaker 3: know where to put him from an ownership perspective is
• 55:59
  Speaker 3: Harris English because around the industry he projects really well.
• 56:03
  Speaker 3: But in terms of just like all the psychological factors
• 56:07
  Speaker 3: that make people click on somebody, like everything's working against
• 56:10
  Speaker 3: Ari's English right now. So he could be eight percent owned,
• 56:13
  Speaker 3: he could be twenty percent owned. I won't be surprised
• 56:16
  Speaker 3: with either. I just really don't know what to do
• 56:18
  Speaker 3: with him. Outside of that, Myser's gonna get some ownership.
• 56:22
  Speaker 3: I think Davis Thompson will get some ownership. Alex Fitzpatrick
• 56:24
  Speaker 3: and Aaron Rye will definitely get ownership. But a lot
• 56:27
  Speaker 3: of these eight K guys, as you just said, are
• 56:29
  Speaker 3: going to be low owned. I can't imagine much going
• 56:31
  Speaker 3: to mcneelye, Keegan, Brennan, Brooks, Harmon, Speith, Keith and Norn,
• 56:39
  Speaker 3: Like all those guys should be under ten percent. I
• 56:42
  Speaker 3: would say maybe one or two could get to ten,
• 56:44
  Speaker 3: twelve something like that, but all these guys should be
• 56:47
  Speaker 3: held in check and to your point, like they're very capable,
• 56:50
  Speaker 3: and I think I think all of them are solid plays.
• 56:53
  Speaker 3: I don't think this is the type of week where
• 56:55
  Speaker 3: we want to say, okay, well I'm just gonna hammer
• 56:57
  Speaker 3: that range to get three or four of them, because
• 56:59
  Speaker 3: I think that they're are other very good plays that
• 57:02
  Speaker 3: are pretty much covered from an ownership perspective elsewhere. But
• 57:05
  Speaker 3: like adding one or two of those guys to any lineup,
• 57:08
  Speaker 3: I do think makes quite a bit of sense.
• 57:10
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and I wonder too, Like again it's the final version,
• 57:12
  Speaker 2: but like a balance build where if you go like
• 57:15
  Speaker 2: a Tom Kim Ben Griffin, but then you mentioned like
• 57:18
  Speaker 2: I'm not doing this, but just like a Keith Speith
• 57:20
  Speaker 2: we talked about they rhyme, I'm just making this up.
• 57:22
  Speaker 2: But it's like now most people will look at like
• 57:24
  Speaker 2: a seventy seven. Like again, you don't have to go
• 57:26
  Speaker 2: to Kohle's or IM or GIM. You could just say
• 57:29
  Speaker 2: I could actually get a third eight K guy in there,
• 57:32
  Speaker 2: and then a low seven K guy and still end
• 57:35
  Speaker 2: up with something pretty decent if these are the types
• 57:37
  Speaker 2: of guys that fit your mold. I'm just giving the
• 57:39
  Speaker 2: example of where the balance build that skips the ten
• 57:42
  Speaker 2: k guys or the upper guys like Hideki and those
• 57:45
  Speaker 2: and even Gerard, et cetera, and then it could still
• 57:48
  Speaker 2: skip Rye, and then it could still skip the upper
• 57:53
  Speaker 2: seven K range and you could almost skip those zones.
• 57:56
  Speaker 2: So it is a little bit different composition. But it's
• 57:57
  Speaker 2: also like playing the guys that you like for whatever
• 58:00
  Speaker 2: reason they fit within there. So find an angle or
• 58:02
  Speaker 2: a threshold you want to hit with and go that route.
• 58:04
  Speaker 2: I think something like that is fine as well. If
• 58:06
  Speaker 2: you do find a build like that, it could be interesting.
• 58:09
  Speaker 2: Also any other final thoughts when it comes to leveraging
• 58:12
  Speaker 2: the chalk build this week? If not, we can get
• 58:14
  Speaker 2: into the betting breakdown and the one and done segment.
• 58:16
  Speaker 3: Yeah, let's go betting breakdown.
• 58:18
  Speaker 1: One and done betting breakdown? What you got this week?
• 58:21
  Speaker 2: I know one that you got the number did drop
• 58:24
  Speaker 2: since you bet it and it was fifty five to
• 58:26
  Speaker 2: one by whatch one do you want to go with?
• 58:28
  Speaker 1: Maybe roll one out there this week?
• 58:29
  Speaker 3: Who moved?
• 58:31
  Speaker 2: Tom kim Okay, let me let me take a look
• 58:34
  Speaker 2: at where where both of them are at right now?
• 58:38
  Speaker 2: I think Tom Kim went to forty five three places
• 58:40
  Speaker 2: from fifty five.
• 58:42
  Speaker 3: Okay, yeah, wow, yeah, he went from thirty three is
• 58:46
  Speaker 3: the baseline down to twenty eight. Let's see where Aaron
• 58:49
  Speaker 3: Rye went. Ry Is rise at thirty for this baseline.
• 58:56
  Speaker 3: So I don't know what the one fifth each way
• 58:59
  Speaker 3: for three spots has met right now, but I can
• 59:01
  Speaker 3: talk about both of these guys like I think, for
• 59:04
  Speaker 3: one thing, both of them are extreme course fits. Where
• 59:08
  Speaker 3: you know they are. They are the two shortest guys
• 59:14
  Speaker 3: at eight k or above in this field, and they're
• 59:18
  Speaker 3: on a golf course where driving distance is probably diminished
• 59:20
  Speaker 3: more than like any other on tour. So that's a
• 59:23
  Speaker 3: huge point in their favor. They project really well, they
• 59:26
  Speaker 3: have really really high win odds, and part of that
• 59:29
  Speaker 3: is they also have the two highest contention performance scores
• 59:34
  Speaker 3: in this entire field. So actually not in the entire field,
• 59:38
  Speaker 3: but like in the entire field of seven and a
• 59:41
  Speaker 3: half k and above or something like that, you know
• 59:43
  Speaker 3: guys who have pretty decent win equity. So I just
• 59:47
  Speaker 3: really like both of them. I think they both have
• 59:49
  Speaker 3: a really good chance to win and I'm going to
• 59:51
  Speaker 3: talk more about splits when I get to my leverage lane,
• 59:54
  Speaker 3: but I will say ahead of time, Aaron Raie has
• 59:56
  Speaker 3: really really good splits this week. He's been out on
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 3: Donald Ross courses. He's been outstanding on golf courses that
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 3: are more accuracy dependent than distance dependent.
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Interesting point you made there too.
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 2: I think is so cool just with the contentent performance scores,
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 2: is like everyone has different win equity for guys and
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 2: the way they math it out in their formulas and
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 2: all of that. But it's like, I don't think that
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 2: is baked in because that's like a new data thing.
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 1: First of all, you invented it, so it's like that's
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 1: just like your own thing.
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 2: But second of all, and some will say what they
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 2: want to say about it, about my point being, it's
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 2: like it's got pretty good sample sizes on a lot
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 2: of it, and the data is strong, like there's some
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 2: signal there for sure, more than noise in my opinion,
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 2: And it's like that's not something that's baked in.
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 1: And also every site is already.
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 2: Different with that because like I don't know, use an example,
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 2: like what what makes McNeely more likely to win than
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 2: you know, double the the win equity of Rye, like.
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 1: Rise a freaking major winner, Like this is what we're
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: talking about.
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 2: Something again not bad on Earth, so like it's all
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 2: derived from a similar formula.
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 1: It's done quite well.
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 2: I'm just saying it's the idea of when every site
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 2: comes out with different things like that, and then you
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 2: in that's part of the reason he has that good score.
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 2: It's like, so that even adds to it. Now he
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 2: already projects better then MAV for less and will be
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 2: more owned because of that, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera.
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 2: But I'm saying, when you're adding that type of stuff in,
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 2: and if you're looking at the betting markets, it matters
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 2: that much more and we're in the betting breakdown.
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 1: So I think that's a key component for you to
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 1: have that added in.
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 2: And it's kind of also too, I know from your
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 2: splits and your other data that it's it's a bonus.
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 2: It's you're not doing it just because he has a
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 2: good contentent performance score. It's like everything lines up for Rye.
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 2: A lot of things look good on the splits that
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 2: you're looking at, and then there's a content so that
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 2: cherry on top we talked about earlier, like the Bermuda stuff.
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 2: It's like, well, if Rye is in contention, like well
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 2: ten when we took Billy Horschel at five hundred to
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 2: one that week or whatever and it didn't work out.
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 2: But the point was like people weren't understanding. It's like,
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 2: it's not because we think he's gonna win. It's like,
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 2: if he gets into the mix, he's got a chance
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 2: to pull it off.
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 1: And that's what we've seen in the data. So we're
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 1: gonna roll with that.
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 2: We thought we had it at the three M a
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 2: couple of weeks, so we had the opportunity, Like he
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 2: just has to go and post a number on Sunday.
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 2: That's all you can ask for waking up Sunday morning
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 2: with you know, a long odds bet like that. So
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 2: I think that's important to remember. But it's just a
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 2: note I wanted to add with CPS that I don't
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 2: think it's baked in.
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's it's it's a weird one because like what
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 3: CPS is doing is it's more directly measuring what a
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 3: lot of people I think indirectly include into their outright
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 3: betting and what what sports books are probably indirectly, including
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 3: in their pricing of outrights, where you know, certainly there
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 3: are people who you know their model is pointing to
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 3: Shane Lowry, but in their minds they say, but can
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 3: Shane Lowry actually win? No. In this case, the CPS
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 3: is right in line with that. The CPS says, Shane
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 3: Lowry is awful when he's in contention, but there are
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 3: other players for whom the the way that people like,
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 3: the impression that people have of a player winning contention
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 3: does not actually match how he's played in contention. Tommy Fleetwood,
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 3: i think, is a good example of that, where Fleetwood,
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 3: it's not that he's great in contention, but he's nowhere
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 3: near as bad as you would expect from somebody who's
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 3: come so close so often like he's he's also gotten
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 3: unlucky where he's played well will in contention and somebody
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 3: else who was, you know, two strokes behind him shot
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 3: like the round of their life to go beat Tommy
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 3: by one or something like that. So, uh yeah, it's
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 3: just a more direct measurement, but the application, like you
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 3: can really see it. So for example, you brought up
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 3: mav McNeely. McNeely in in my sim has a fourteen
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 3: point three percent chance of a top ten finish, Aaron
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 3: Rye fifteen point nine percent. So they are very similar
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 3: in how likely they are to give you a top
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 3: ten Rise at three point two percent to win, MAV
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 3: is at zero point four percent because MAV has one
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 3: of the absolute worst contention performance scores. I think only
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 3: Doug gimm is worse when in contention. So so yeah,
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 3: it's hugely impactful the closer you get to a a
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 3: winning outcome. And it also has DFS implications there, right,
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 3: Like Maverick McNeely can still be a very good low
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 3: owned DFS play because if he's nine percent owned and
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 3: gives you an eighth place finish, that's quite good. But
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 3: when you're betting it up right, you needed him to
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 3: actually cross the finish line and get the win to
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 3: make it a good bet. Yeah.
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 2: Also too, like you said, again, it's not baked in,
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 2: so I like it's in your data as an additional
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 2: added piece is because you think about Matt McNeely goes
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 2: to bed Saturday night in second place, very much in contention,
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 2: and he's got twenty position placement points to start the
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 2: day because he's in second place solo let's call it
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 2: and like, Okay, now he's into the mix.
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 1: Can it go his way? Absolutely?
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 2: We talked about it earlier about like chokers and chasers
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 2: and whatever, like all these different factors. But I'm just saying,
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 2: if he does not come through and the CPS stands
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 2: out and works against him that twenty not only is
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 2: he it's because of the bogies or whatever, the mistakes
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 2: are made along the way, or even just all pars
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 2: when others are scoring. So he's not scoring and he's
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 2: losing those twenty points solely, but surely as he drops
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 2: down the board. And again you talk about from a
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 2: different perspective like that for his low ownership and eight,
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 2: how much that's valuable. I'm just giving another example of
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 2: where he actually is in contention and people are like, whooh,
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 2: I got this guy. He's a bit lower own. I
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 2: got this. You lose those points quickly. If that happens,
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 2: then it adds up.
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 3: Yeah. Just for some added context here, I used Data
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 3: Golf's pressure tool to look at the last let's see one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight.
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 3: The last eight times McNeely has been fifth or better
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 3: entering the final round, he has lost strokes to his expectation.
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 3: In all eight he went from second to thirteenth, fourth
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 3: to T three, T one to the win at the
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 3: RSM when he was one point zero seven strokes below
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 3: his expectations. Just no one up top played well third
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 3: to T three, fourth to T nine, fifth to T twelve,
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 3: fifth to T eight. Those are his last eight times
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 3: in contention. So yeah, when he's been there, like, it's
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 3: not just that he's not getting the job done, it's
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 3: that he's playing well below his own expectation. And when
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 3: we talk about like, okay, when you're in contention, do
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 3: you get a win? Eight rounds is a small sample
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 3: when we changed the result that we're looking at to
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 3: from whether he won or not too how well he
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 3: played versus own expectation, all of a sudden, we're dramatically
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 3: increasing the effect of that sample. And so it's been
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 3: a really, really predictive tool. And like basically, event after event,
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 3: the final round, like the story of the final round
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 3: told could have been predicted by the contention performance score
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 3: ahead of time. Last week was one of those exceptions
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 3: where ahead of the round though, like I even put
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 3: in my discord, Hey, the top two guys have strong
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 3: contention performance scores, but their baselines are not good. So
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 3: the fact that they've outplayed their own baseline winning contention
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 3: doesn't mean that we should expect him to go shoot
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 3: three four under today Like they still might not be
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 3: that good, And that's what happened, and it allowed thorpe
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 3: Jornsen to make such a charge from way behind.
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's definitely good stuff. If you don't have any
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 2: access to that, you're not paying attention to it yet
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 2: you should be. I think it's like definitely something that's new, refreshing,
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 2: not baked in yet to the standard stuff that's out there.
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 2: So that's going to be important moving forward as well.
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 2: And Alex excited for all the other stuff that you're bringing,
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 2: especially when it comes to NFL or just around the corner.
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 1: But the PGA stuff has been awesome. One and done.
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 1: Who do we got left? What's the plan here? We
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 1: just got to just bomb it away.
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 2: Like I know, most people, if you're out of it,
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 2: you just can't play the popular guys, so you could
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 2: be out of it completely.
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 3: What did we what did we do last week? I
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 3: don't even remember. Do you remember who we ended up
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 3: with last week? I can't remember now, But yeah, I'm
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 3: not sure. I would say we have both Aaron Ryan
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 3: and Tom Kim available, we probably want to take one
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 3: of those two guys.
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think like the bigger thing is like for
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 2: somebody that's out of it, you want to be looking
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 2: down the board like if you're if you're not in
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 2: the mix, just taking the same guys there. But yes,
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 2: the money's not huge, as we you want to collect
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 2: what you can and I'm sorry you know the money saw,
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 2: but I'm saying like it's more about how you.
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 1: Fit on the board.
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 2: So what I'm trying to say is if you're way behind,
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 2: you're not really gonna pick up much if you go
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 2: with the same guy that everybody else has.
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 1: Most people know this by now.
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 2: But if you're up the board, I think you need
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 2: to be thinking about that with the playoffs just around
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 2: the corner and everything like that, because that's gonna matter.
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 2: You need to stay positioned, you need to stay live
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 2: because the real deal is going to start next week
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 2: with the you know the.
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 1: What is it next week? The FedEx Saint Jude or whatever, So.
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 3: Yeah, keep that in mind.
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 3: The only thing I'll add there is we are easily
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 3: at the point of the season where you can kind
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 3: of like map out the rest of the year, and
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 3: so just make sure you have enough guys for the
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 3: playoffs that you know you want to use. So, like,
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 3: let's say you only have two elite players left and
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 3: Cam Young is one of them, probably don't want to
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 3: use him this week because you want to make sure
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 3: you're using him in a higher perse event. If you
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 3: have four elite guys left and Cam Young is one
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 3: of them, you can use Cam this week because even
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 3: if other people have him like number one, a lot
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 3: of the people who are ahead of you probably had
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 3: him for one of his wins. And second of this
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 3: is a lower perse event and so you're not going
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 3: to be able to catch and pass that many people anyway.
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 3: You have to do that in the next two weeks,
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 3: So just keep that in mind as well. For sure.
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 2: All right, anything else that you want to talk about,
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 2: my friend, otherwise we can get to our leverage lane.
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 1: Do you have a lane selected?
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 3: I'm just confused, someone asked, nap, I don't think he's
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 3: playing this week, so question.
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I ignored him.
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 2: My guy Timmy Doves is coming off a long shift.
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 2: I'm assuming maybe an overnight, but there is no nap
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 2: in the field. Maybe you should take a nap, Timmy
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 2: and get collected, buddy, get ready to go. We got
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 2: a big week ahead, my friend. But hope to talk
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 2: to you soon, Timmy. Let's talk to Alex about his
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 2: leverage lane for the week. Let's talk about from a
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 2: single entry perspective, what are you thinking for this week?
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 3: I'm going to lean into splits and you have time
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 3: here for me to kind of go into the methodology
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 3: behind them and why I think they're really important.
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I got nothing good, good to go cool.
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 3: So this actually is born a little bit from a
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 3: thought that I had with with baseball and just MLB,
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 3: both props and DraftKings play, which was essentially like I
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 3: knew that there were pitchers who were more sensitive to
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 3: the matchup than others. Where you know, there are some
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 3: guys who they're pretty much the same picture each and
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 3: every start, and if they're playing against a bad offense,
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 3: they're going to do well. If they're playing against a
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 3: good offense, they're going to do poorly more often than not.
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 3: And then there are other pitchers who like their a
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 3: game is really good and the opponent, the quality of
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 3: the opponent doesn't matter so as much as does this
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 3: guy have his A game or does he have his
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 3: D game that day? And I want to then apply
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 3: that to golf and say, okay, well, this, like all
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 3: the course fit stuff that I do, treats every player
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 3: as equally course fit sensitive as the next. But surely
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 3: there are players who are more course fit sensitive than others.
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 3: And so a lot of what the splits are trying
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 3: to do is capture exactly that who is more course
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 3: fit sensitive and who is less course fit sensitive than
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 3: what the model is showing. And so, for example, everybody
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 3: knows that Brian Harmon is not long off the t
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 3: everybody knows that Brian Harmon is generally pretty accurate off
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 3: the tee. If he's more course fit sensitive than most,
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 3: then he's going to show up with really good splits
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 3: for his baseline on accuracy dependent golf courses. Sure enough,
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 3: that's exactly what we see. His splits this week are
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 3: far and away like the most extreme that I've seen
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 3: from anybody. So for context, what I'll use boom rate
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 3: and blow up rate as kind of the definition here,
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 3: where a boom round is you're gaining three point three
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 3: strokes or more versus the field, and a blow up
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 3: is you're losing one point seven or more to the field.
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 3: I use these cutoffs because they create very similar boom
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 3: and blow up rates for the better players in the field.
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 3: Harmon typically just his baseline, has a fifteen percent boom
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 3: rate and a seventeen percent blow up rate in one
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 3: hundred and forty eight. So this is a huge sample
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 3: on accuracy dependent golf courses, defining actually dependent as courses
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 3: where distance is less predictive than usual, accuracy is more
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 3: dependent than usual. Harmon has a twenty eight percent boom
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 3: rate and a twelve percent blow up rate. And like
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 3: the next question is okay, well, what caliber player typically
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 3: booms that much more often than they blow up? The
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 3: answer is nobody in this field. Cam Young is the
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 3: highest baseline boom rate in this field and only twenty
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 3: three percent. Within this split Harmon's at twenty eight percent.
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 3: Only three players have a blow up rate as good
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 3: as Harmon's twelve percent, So he becomes a truly elite
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 3: player on this type of golf course. And are there
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 3: are other splits that I'm looking at this week, like
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 3: Donald Ross courses where Aaron Raye also really stands out
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 3: and RAI was actually asked about this, like what is
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 3: it about Donald Ross courses that really allow him to
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 3: fit them and play well? His major championship win this
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 3: season at Ironomic is on a Donald Ross course. Ray
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 3: made a really cool point, which is, you know, I
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 3: don't hit the ball high, I don't spin the ball much.
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 3: It's hard for me to stop the ball on greens
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 3: from time to time. But Donald Ross courses tilt back
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 3: to front, so they helped me stop the ball, especially
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 3: on longer approach shots, which means his accuracy and his
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 3: ability to hit the ball where he wants has an
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 3: even larger benefit to him here because he can then
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 3: stop the ball where it's landing, and so he just
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 3: has even more control than usually does, and it just
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 3: fits his game that much more. I also think there's
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 3: an element of Ross courses are typically accuracy depending golf courses,
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 3: certainly like this one is, and now like Detroit is
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 3: as well. So we saw that at IRONOMK two and
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 3: just like Harmon, although to a lesser degree, Aaron Raye
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 3: has also really outperformed his own expectations, his own baseline
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 3: on actually dependent golf courses, so leaning to splits, Harmon
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 3: Rye and a handful of there's really gonna be kind
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 3: of at the forefront of my focus this week, and
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 3: you can find.
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 1: Those splits at Alex's discord. He'll bring it up at
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 1: the end.
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 2: I'll let you go through it all at then, but
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 2: I will talk about my leverage lane first.
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 1: It's gonna be a commitment to what we talked about earlier.
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 2: I talked about the difference between construction and composition, and
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 2: this is just a you know, inside the mind. One
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 2: of the things that I talk about a ton over
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 2: at DFS Mastermind is like how I think, and this
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 2: would definitely be.
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 1: How my mind works. It doesn't mean it's right, but
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 1: it's certainly interesting way to look at it.
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 2: But when you look at this week, Cam Young, Aaron Rai,
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 2: Tom Kim, Ben Coles, Alex Fitzpatrick, Sung, J M. Macnisner,
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 2: Bud Cowley, all the guys that we talked about that
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 2: fit the chalk bailed, they all play AM PM this week.
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 1: And I'm gonna run a complete opposite of that.
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 2: I have a ton of guys that I like in
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 2: the PM AM I'm gonna go after a I don't
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 2: care what the composition is, but my construction is gonna
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 2: be pm AM.
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 1: Avoid all of those, not because I think they're plays.
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 2: They'll be in portfolio, they'll be o on to talk
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 2: about the two dollars single entry. I'm gonna try and
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 2: attack it from that perspective. People know I always love
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 2: a good pm AM. I think there's something about just
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 2: being able to see how the course is playing, go
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 2: out and play it, and when there's not much wind
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 2: or anything difference anyway, kind of playing the same thing.
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 2: And then I also like about going out that next morning,
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 2: fresh off a good round, ready to rock and roll, saying, look,
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 2: if they're playing good already, they're gonna wanna play good
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 2: the morning, probably getting their best sleep. It doesn't mean
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 2: it's gonna work out, I'm saying, but then you get
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 2: to go out and play the course and set the
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 2: tone and you don't have to be like chasing a
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 2: number or any pressure down the stretch or anything like that.
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 2: So I do like that perspective for this week. And
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 2: when I get the chalk build lining up perfectly, all
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 2: I'm hoping is there's two or three chalk bombs and
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 2: a bunch of those lineups are now four or sixes.
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 2: I at least give myself a chance. And there's great
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 2: place in the PM that are also popular. You know,
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 2: Coven's there, Hideki is there, Ben Ben Griffin who we
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 2: talked about, is there. And you know the other side
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 2: is there's a lot of guys in the AM that
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 2: are popular for the same lineup.
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 1: But it gets me a little bit different.
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 2: And that's where people will say, like, oh, you didn't
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 2: really get that far off the beaten path.
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 1: All your guys were ten or twelve percent. You didn't
• 1:16:03
  Speaker 1: even have a single digit guy. I know, but I
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 1: didn't play a single guy from the AM set where
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 1: everybody is up there, and there's guys that are in
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 1: the thirties and forties in some of these tournaments.
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 2: So PMAM split is gonna be my way with no
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 2: weather talk at all, just for a reasoning of construction
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 2: versus composition.
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 3: You did this in one of the first events of
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 3: the year, I remember, and you had a lineup full
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 3: of six like fairly chalky guys and won a bunch
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 3: of tickets with it, and like I made a note
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 3: to myself, like I even went because I didn't even
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 3: notice that you did that until like we had until
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 3: we did leverage lane the following week. And so I
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 3: went back through the contest you were in. I was
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 3: looking like, well, you know, did he win a one
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 3: v one versus somebody to win that ticket? And the
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 3: answer was no, Like even though you had six popular guys,
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 3: I think the closest anyone in the top ten was
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 3: to you was like a three v three off of
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 3: your lineup. And so yeah, it's it's what we talked about,
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 3: Like coming to Fruition, what you did gave you lower
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 3: combinatorial ownerships even though you had all you know, not
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 3: they weren't all chalky players. There just wasn't anyone that
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 3: I otherwise would have called a separator. The separator in
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 3: the lineup was just the composition of it. Yeah, the
• 1:17:15
  Speaker 3: separator was the construction of playing a side. And it
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 3: was actually Tory Pines. I played six South North. Everyone
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 3: was playing the guys on the North course, and I know,
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 3: like it can go either way. You can have a
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 3: hot round on the North, play the tougher South and die,
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 3: And in the sense of golf terms.
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 1: You could the other way. You can flip it.
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 2: You can play a good round, grind it out on
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 2: the South and then be like, who, I can breathe
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 2: the North course tomorrow on it's decent weather like That's again,
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 2: I don't know how golfers think.
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 1: Nobody does.
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 2: That's why listening just for picks and plays doesn't always
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 2: help you. That's why Alex talking about playing the splits
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 2: can work because if it's guys that fit the splits,
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 2: they can go together. It's not just Bermuda putting splits
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 2: where it's like they all need a putt good at
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 2: the same time.
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 1: That could be a bonus on top.
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 2: But I talk about a ton of dfs as how
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 2: not who If you guys go to dfsmastermind dot com,
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 2: I want to check it out. Doing a ton with
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 2: this right now, I'm teasing it because Alex and I
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 2: actually have an upcoming video that we're going to be recording,
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 2: and then something beyond that that I'm teasing for sure.
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 2: We'll get to that later on, but we are going
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 2: to be recording on Friday, there will be a new
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 2: video that goes in. If you go to dfsmastermind dot com,
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 2: you can see some of the videos for free. You
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 2: can see all the options to get in. You could
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 2: see over two hundred testimonials of what people are actually saying,
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 2: and just a sneak peek behind the scenes. If you
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 2: go to this, this is the breakdown of getting in
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 2: behind the scenes. It's like YouTube meets Netflix for DFS.
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 2: If you want to look up single entry and you
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 2: type in single all the courses with single entry are
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 2: in there. If you're looking at just the main modules,
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 2: the less than fifty dollars one time cost to get in.
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 2: It covers secrets of satellites, qualifiers, It talks about optimizer benefits,
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 2: player pool creation. Then if in the part too, it's
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 2: a little bit more advanced, but you get roster construction
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 2: and lineup selection, things that people don't talk about a lot.
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 2: The sims explain single entry strategy, playing showdown all the
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 2: lessons I've learned over my main years I'm playing DFS.
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 2: It's just a jump start to get in and get ahead.
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 2: Of course, if you guys want the data, you can
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 2: go to ship at nation dot com. We had it
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 2: up here earlier, the Stone two point zero, everything that's
• 1:19:10
  Speaker 2: included with that. And then if you go to let
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 2: me see if I can share this tab for a second.
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 2: The promo at the top it's forty nine bucks. The
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 2: rest of golf and leading into football will be there,
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 2: and then we have some big NFL news and some
• 1:19:21
  Speaker 2: company news and that coming soon.
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 1: So lots of stuff going on over at ship at
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 1: Nation Alex.
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 2: What do you got going on over at Blick Analytics
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 2: dot com for those that don't know.
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I was gonna say the easiest place to find
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 3: everything now is blick Analytics dot Com. You won't subscribe there,
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 3: but it'll make the subscription process a lot more straightforward
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  Speaker 3: for people, which I'm very, very thankful for. And as
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 3: as a reminder, you know, prices are gonna go up
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 3: once the NFL season starts, since ownership and projections and
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 3: GPP scores are now in my discord on block analytics
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 3: dot com for the first time. But if you get
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 3: in in August, so before September, anytime in August, you'll
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 3: be locked into that price forever, and you can use
• 1:20:03
  Speaker 3: promo code leverage for ten percent off forever on top
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  Speaker 3: the Fedexs Cup playoffs and lock that fantastic price in
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 3: for the entire NFL season and beyond.
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's gonna be a lot of fun.
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 2: Man, we got, like I said, we got Next week
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 2: at the FedEx Saint Jude, we're gonna be we got.
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 1: That's the show we're gonna miss. And then we've got sorry.
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 2: The next week is the BNW Championship, will be our
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 2: final PGA and but instead we're recording a Mastermind course
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 2: before then for members over there. And then we also
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 2: have NFL previews and stuff coming up around the corner,
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 2: going to talk some construction data, make sure people know
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 2: that this is the show to watch during NFL as well.
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 2: We talk about a ton and we are tooting our
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 2: own horn. But we have to tell you like it is,
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 2: a lot of shows come out super early because there
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  Speaker 2: is more clicks and speaking analytics you get, you get
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  Speaker 2: the bigger numbers and the higher YouTube money and all
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 2: these different factors. But we want to come out when
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 2: it's most valuable to you so that you can use
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 2: this stuff to play your game, to get your own process,
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 2: to find your way around. If you like what we do,
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 2: you can find us a ship, a nation. Do youI
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  Speaker 2: have us Mastermind, Blick analytics, all of that. That's gonna
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 2: do it for this week, guys, we appreciate you. I
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 2: do got to shut out Timmy Dubbs. We gave him
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 2: a hard time. He's my boy, so I don't mind.
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 2: But he said, I'm talking about the guy you played
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 2: last week, and I said, yes, makes sense now, too sharp.
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 1: I do believe that is who we played last week.
• 1:21:14
  Speaker 2: So he's an avid watcher and fan and helpful guy
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 2: just to give us that information. So we certainly appreciate you, Timmy.
• 1:21:20
  Speaker 2: Good luck to you this week. Always grinding in the
• 1:21:22
  Speaker 2: DFS streets. That's gonna do it for this one guys,
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 2: for Alex and for myself. Totech and Tambo, good luck
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 2: in your contest this week and led ship it