Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / MMA DFS - FIGHT NIGHT | January 11, 2025 | DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process

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MMA DFS - FIGHT NIGHT | January 11, 2025 | DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:04
  Speaker 1: Fall systems go clear, you lift on what's going on.
• 0:36
  Speaker 2: Everybody happy Thursday afternoon, Many watch Friday, many watch Saturday.
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: I'm pumped to be back though, with my man Big
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: Marley a month off, it's always nice.
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: I always enjoy the month off. I mean, man, UFC
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: is a.
• 0:48
  Speaker 2: Grind unlike any other because it's pretty much every single week,
• 0:51
  Speaker 2: whereas other sports you do get a couple months off.
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: I'm not gonna plain in those fights on the screen
• 0:56
  Speaker 2: on Saturdays, always make them a little better man. This
• 0:59
  Speaker 2: week NFL two six games. It's gonna be a heck
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: of a weekend, a lot of money to be made.
• 1:04
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna jump right right before I even throw it
• 1:06
  Speaker 2: to you. With so many sports going on, golf is
• 1:08
  Speaker 2: already back, the best deal we do have again, all
• 1:11
  Speaker 2: the sports going NBA, MLB will be here before you
• 1:14
  Speaker 2: know it, PGA and full force, no better team out there.
• 1:17
  Speaker 2: MMA is back in full action. NFL is still going on.
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: If you want to all our best deal one hundred
• 1:23
  Speaker 2: dollars off our annual package shift Tomizer is including that
• 1:26
  Speaker 2: deal if you want it. Also, if you don't want shipt,
• 1:29
  Speaker 2: Tomizer also can use this promo code. It is built
• 1:31
  Speaker 2: in weekly, monthly, six month packages. Also out there we
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: are sharing the stone. We have the stone for all
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: sports up here. As you can see, this is built
• 1:40
  Speaker 2: out ownership projections what they do.
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: Way in at the color coding.
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: You also get my slate plan, Big Marley's fight rankings,
• 1:48
  Speaker 2: tier rankings, Core Report, etc.
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: For MMA.
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: Super pumped to have it back. Fourteen Fights huge for
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: DFS next week. I'm definitely already looking forward to it.
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: I will be there even if I wasn't. It's one
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: of the best cards I think of the year. Can't
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: really paint a better one, but man, fourteen fights to
• 2:04
  Speaker 2: kick it back APEX for Eastern I think it's a
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: great DFS card.
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: What are you doing, Big Male? How you see it?
• 2:10
  Speaker 3: Yeah? Man, after a long break, we got to come
• 2:12
  Speaker 3: back to a WMA fight as the main event. Couldn't
• 2:15
  Speaker 3: ask for anything better, So hopefully it'll be good. DFS wise,
• 2:19
  Speaker 3: fourteen fights is pretty solid. I was doing ownership earlier
• 2:24
  Speaker 3: and I didn't put anyone above forty five percent. That's
• 2:27
  Speaker 3: the first time in a long time I feel like
• 2:29
  Speaker 3: it's been like that, So I think it's a pretty
• 2:32
  Speaker 3: good card. I mean, it's not like the best fan card,
• 2:34
  Speaker 3: but if we can win some money, I love it.
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's kind of how I wrote it up too,
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: like this by no means would been my main event
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: of choice to kick it back off. I do get it, though,
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: because next week, I mean two title fights Umar Islam.
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: You got sweet.
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: Dreams on the card gear, I mean that guy is
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: one of the best cards I've seen top to bottom,
• 2:52
  Speaker 2: So all eyes on that. But I'll never complain about
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: fourteen fights fingers crossed. Everyone does make weight thirteen isn't
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: even the worst ben he means, But of course all
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: of our content will be up tomorrow. I feel pretty
• 3:05
  Speaker 2: good about the card, though I've in twenty entry. I
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: have six fades right now. The main event I do
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: think is really strong, and I think the upper tier
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: there's a like I think you're gonna need probably one
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: oh five, one ten plus from these upper tier, a
• 3:18
  Speaker 2: lot of heavy wrestlers that can get there that way,
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: a couple of big inside the distance props as well,
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: so definitely have some fades up there.
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: I feel good about.
• 3:26
  Speaker 2: Maybe you're gonna have to talk me to some mid
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: tier lower tier stuff, but any initial broad state overview
• 3:31
  Speaker 2: before you go fight by flight.
• 3:33
  Speaker 3: Now, I think there's a I could probably find at
• 3:35
  Speaker 3: least six fades that I'll do on this card as well,
• 3:38
  Speaker 3: maybe even more, especially with twenty or less, I think
• 3:40
  Speaker 3: I could find more than that. With one hundred and fifty,
• 3:43
  Speaker 3: I feel like I can get close to six. To
• 3:45
  Speaker 3: be honest with you, on this card, I don't know
• 3:47
  Speaker 3: fo one hundred and fifty, I don't even think i'll
• 3:49
  Speaker 3: have time. I mean with with the NFL as well,
• 3:52
  Speaker 3: I don't know. We'll see. I'm just gonna wing it
• 3:53
  Speaker 3: on Saturday. I'm looking forward to it, just a full
• 3:55
  Speaker 3: day winning money hopefully. But yeah, just I want to
• 3:59
  Speaker 3: be heavy on the main event. I got a couple
• 4:01
  Speaker 3: other five stars on there as well, But really it's
• 4:04
  Speaker 3: just gonna be like a lot of mixing in lineups
• 4:06
  Speaker 3: and then like my fifth and sixth spot are what's
• 4:09
  Speaker 3: gonna make my lineup contrarian type of thing.
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: Yeah, No, I'm totally with you there with fourteen fights
• 4:14
  Speaker 2: like you can definitely eatch off. There's more combinations. I
• 4:17
  Speaker 2: don't think you'll see it too. Too crazy about to
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: jump in. But what's going on, Joel? No NBA today.
• 4:24
  Speaker 2: NBA will start on Thursdays. We have Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Friday,
• 4:27
  Speaker 2: not next week, but the week after. We're gonna add
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: in Thursdays as well. NFL still the main focus this week.
• 4:33
  Speaker 2: Next week, still a lot of NFL going on. Our
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: team is pretty small in the NBA. But after that
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: we will be going NBA.
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: Little neck. What's going on?
• 4:41
  Speaker 2: Sehn Sullivan go collect in here as well, appreciate everyone.
• 4:44
  Speaker 2: Oh we ask Blake, button, subscribe, button, hufs us out
• 4:47
  Speaker 2: a ton and again if you want to join us
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: at the nation chipinnation dot com, join the Nation and
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: then you can pick which package you would like.
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: I say, we jump right into it. Oh the one
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: thing I wanted to add as.
• 4:58
  Speaker 2: Well, So I do put these odds as you can
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: see that to win the inside the distance props, I
• 5:03
  Speaker 2: put that on Monday this week usually it's Tuesday. And
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: then I read off the current ones right now so
• 5:09
  Speaker 2: you can see where the line movement goes like this
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: first fight of the night, Neural Elia big favorite was
• 5:15
  Speaker 2: minus four fifty. Now he's minus seven hundred. Second vegas
• 5:18
  Speaker 2: on the card taken on Joe Selecti's plus five hundred.
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: This fight's plus two to fifteen to finish, Ali a
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: plus three fifty inside the distance Selecti plus five hundred
• 5:29
  Speaker 2: pretty easy for me, Like, no chance I'm playing Joe Seleti.
• 5:32
  Speaker 2: Maybe in even in one fifty he'd probably be one
• 5:35
  Speaker 2: of my fades. I will say he's plus five hundred
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: to win. His inside the dismal prop is also plus
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: five hundred. I'm bad online, so that is pretty interesting.
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: If he wins, they expect to finish and him by
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: sub plus five to fifty. Really really clear. If he,
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: Joe Selecki wins, it probably is my sub. Are you
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: chasing any Joe Selecti? I shouldn't say chasing, he'll be
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: very low on but A you're gonna play any in
• 5:58
  Speaker 2: twenty and below? And then talk about Aliev pretty expensive
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: that ninety five hundred.
• 6:03
  Speaker 3: I doubt I get to him in twenty in below.
• 6:05
  Speaker 3: If I did, it would be because I built a
• 6:08
  Speaker 3: lineup and then I had sixty seven hundred left for
• 6:11
  Speaker 3: my last spot and Aliev wasn't already in there. Then
• 6:14
  Speaker 3: I'd be okay with.
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: It, I guess.
• 6:17
  Speaker 3: But yeah, the only way I really see Seleti winning
• 6:19
  Speaker 3: this fight is an early guillotine while he's fresh, when
• 6:24
  Speaker 3: Aliev's going for a takedown. But if he's not getting
• 6:27
  Speaker 3: a guillotine, I just don't really see how he wins
• 6:29
  Speaker 3: the fight. Maybe it's a slow paced striking match, but
• 6:32
  Speaker 3: that's gonna suck for everybody. Hopefully that's not the case.
• 6:35
  Speaker 3: I do think it'll be a lot of grappling, but
• 6:37
  Speaker 3: it's probably gonna be Aliev initiating the grappling dictating where
• 6:40
  Speaker 3: the fight takes place, really and once he gets a takedown,
• 6:44
  Speaker 3: so Leki's just kinda kind of accept it and hunt
• 6:46
  Speaker 3: for submissions rather than get up and then allow Aliv
• 6:51
  Speaker 3: to get more and more takedown. So that's gonna take
• 6:53
  Speaker 3: away from the Aliyev side. And at ninety five hundred,
• 6:57
  Speaker 3: I just don't think I'm gonna get too a lot
• 7:00
  Speaker 3: of them because he's just not as active on the
• 7:02
  Speaker 3: ground as I would want him to be. He's not
• 7:04
  Speaker 3: throwing all those little baby punches like I would really
• 7:06
  Speaker 3: like him to be when he's in that dominant position,
• 7:09
  Speaker 3: So I probably won't get the whole out of alley
• 7:12
  Speaker 3: of either. This is a fight that I'd be fine
• 7:15
  Speaker 3: with with my one fifties on either side, but when
• 7:18
  Speaker 3: I'm handbuilding, I just don't see me clicking on this
• 7:21
  Speaker 3: fight very much, so I might have it as a four?
• 7:24
  Speaker 3: What do I have it as a three star? Okay? Good?
• 7:25
  Speaker 3: I was gonna say, if I have it as a
• 7:26
  Speaker 3: four star, I'm dropping it's it's closer to a two
• 7:29
  Speaker 3: star than a four star for me. What do you
• 7:31
  Speaker 3: think star wise? Where would you put it?
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: I think I agree with the three star, Like I'm
• 7:35
  Speaker 2: not playing Seleki, so he'd be a one and the
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: alley of stuff like, I agree with you. I'm telling myself,
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: like I said, we need one hundred and ten plus
• 7:44
  Speaker 2: in the upper tier.
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: A couple guys really stand out.
• 7:46
  Speaker 2: We're gonna get to Jacoby Smith for one hundred less
• 7:49
  Speaker 2: looks really really strong in this car. Now, I will say,
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: even if you leave zero dollars with an Alley of
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: Team or one hundred with Smith, the Alley of Team
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: will be lower owned. So in Chalkier teams, if I'm
• 8:00
  Speaker 2: playing the main events, I think I find doing that
• 8:02
  Speaker 2: because I do know he does have wrestling upside. That
• 8:05
  Speaker 2: is exactly what he wants to do. This line movement
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: is nice, but I like Jacobe Smith.
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: A lot more.
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: I like Tulia more. I like Bashiemore for cheaper and
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: then there's guys like I don't know. I'm curious that take.
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: When we get to g Godziazulav, there's meticch There is
• 8:23
  Speaker 2: plenty of guys down there for cheaper that you can
• 8:25
  Speaker 2: leave money. I don't love too many dogs on this card.
• 8:29
  Speaker 2: I'm definitely obviously have to play some. It's a game
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: theory game, but long story short, I'm with you. I
• 8:34
  Speaker 2: think it would be a three star. Aliev would be
• 8:36
  Speaker 2: all the stars since I'm not playing Silki, but ninety
• 8:39
  Speaker 2: five hundred you really need a big score. His ownership
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: will stay somewhat in check though, again because Smith for
• 8:44
  Speaker 2: one hundred less Tulio for one hundred more. I do
• 8:47
  Speaker 2: think it's a good amount of ownership, So I'm fine
• 8:50
  Speaker 2: with him as a pivot and chalkier teams. Not going
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: out of my way to play him is how I
• 8:53
  Speaker 2: see it. So pretty similar to you take down Brian, Joe, Anne,
• 8:57
  Speaker 2: what's going on? Appreciate all three of you, all the support,
• 9:01
  Speaker 2: always in here, much love, keep it rolling. Next fight
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: on the card you have it as a one star.
• 9:07
  Speaker 2: It's definitely my least favorite fight on the card. It's
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: a fight on both sides, but it is the biggest
• 9:11
  Speaker 2: favorite on the card. Fatimita climb to me foto MEA,
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: what is it? Fatima Fatima? That sounds that sounds better.
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: We'll go Fatima Client, Yeah, Fatima for sure, Fatima clein
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: minustein twenty five taking on Victoria. Due to COVIA plus
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: six twenty five, this fight is one of the most
• 9:33
  Speaker 2: likely to go the distance on the card plus one
• 9:34
  Speaker 2: eighty to finish Client's inside the distance prop has come
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: down just a little bit open plus two hundred now
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: plus one ninety five due to COVID plus nine hundred.
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: On the other side, I will say climb by submission
• 9:47
  Speaker 2: open plus four hundred now plus three hundred climbing round
• 9:51
  Speaker 2: one is plus, whereas I say climbing by submission in
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: round one plus five to twenty five is climb in
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: round one.
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: The problem is, even if Klient got a first round finish,
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: she's not even guaranteed to be optimal.
• 10:04
  Speaker 2: At ninety eight hundred like that is a big boy
• 10:06
  Speaker 2: price tag twenty entry and blow.
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: I can't get there.
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: But if I'm making one hundred and fifty teams, which
• 10:12
  Speaker 2: I doubt I will this week, the three dollars definitely.
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: I mean with NFL both contests. The flight ship twenty
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: dollars seventeen thousand people in it. Three dollars only has
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: like twenty nine thousand people in it, so I don't
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: see myself maxing either, so I doubt I get any client.
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: But if I were to play one fifty, I would
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: have client in there because she will be low owned.
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: But with twenty, teams are less, and when I'm building again,
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: I want to keep it more concentrated in the upper
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: tier if I can. The Smith's of the world that
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: it fascie et cetera. Ninety eight hundreds is too big
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: of a price tag gimme smith and leaving four hundred
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: dollars so people do use the salary, et cetera. So
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: I got nothing in this fight. Definitely no due to Covia.
• 10:51
  Speaker 2: I assume here the same with the one star.
• 10:54
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I definitely like Clin to win. I
• 10:57
  Speaker 3: think she's just better everywhere. She would really need to
• 11:00
  Speaker 3: wrestle heavily to have any chance at paying that off
• 11:04
  Speaker 3: that off, or get like, you know, a first sixty
• 11:07
  Speaker 3: second finish or like a last second first round finish
• 11:12
  Speaker 3: where she adds up all the points and then gets
• 11:14
  Speaker 3: the big bonus, but I just don't see that being
• 11:16
  Speaker 3: the case. I think this fight goes the distance, she
• 11:18
  Speaker 3: should just completely outclass due to Cova on the feet.
• 11:23
  Speaker 3: But my worry would be that if dood Tokova can
• 11:26
  Speaker 3: get a takedown, maybe she can control the fight long
• 11:29
  Speaker 3: enough to steal around, and if she can do that twice,
• 11:32
  Speaker 3: she could win the fight and she'll probably have enough
• 11:34
  Speaker 3: control time where she could score Okay, So I'd prefer
• 11:37
  Speaker 3: the dude to covid side just because if she wins,
• 11:40
  Speaker 3: I mean, she'll be low on two, but she can
• 11:42
  Speaker 3: allow us to get so much else in our lineup.
• 11:44
  Speaker 3: She should score ten x or more, so I'd be
• 11:46
  Speaker 3: fine with that, but more so for one point fifty.
• 11:49
  Speaker 3: I just don't see her winning. I think Fatima just
• 11:52
  Speaker 3: dominates her throughout the fight. She can go wherever she wants,
• 11:55
  Speaker 3: but I think her biggest edge in this fight is
• 11:57
  Speaker 3: on the feet. So keep it standing. You're probably not
• 11:59
  Speaker 3: gonna be able to pay off ninety eight hundred dollars.
• 12:01
  Speaker 3: So yeah, even if I can afford Cline, I want
• 12:05
  Speaker 3: somebody lower than her because that's my way of being
• 12:07
  Speaker 3: contrarian on this card. I just don't see me having
• 12:10
  Speaker 3: a lot of contrarian plays individually. But if I can
• 12:13
  Speaker 3: just leave salary on the table, hopefully that'll minimize my
• 12:16
  Speaker 3: my dupes.
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: I'm one hundred percent with you.
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: I'll spoil it the main event in twenty and below,
• 12:21
  Speaker 2: I did decide I'm going all in on he Boss
• 12:24
  Speaker 2: and Dern eighty five hundred and seventy seven hundred, Like
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: you can leave one thousand on the table, eight hundred
• 12:29
  Speaker 2: on the table with fourteen fights. I'm not going out
• 12:32
  Speaker 2: of my way to do that by any means, but
• 12:34
  Speaker 2: just naturally on this card, like I don't I think
• 12:37
  Speaker 2: ninety four hundred smith, I think bash yet eighty nine hundred.
• 12:40
  Speaker 2: In a win, I would score as a ninety eight
• 12:42
  Speaker 2: hundred fighter. So that does show you can leave heaps
• 12:45
  Speaker 2: the salary and to help get you different on this card.
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: Or you can take the approach to playing like some
• 12:51
  Speaker 2: well owned pivots that we will get to.
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: Then I'm I'm interested in a couple, but I'm with you,
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: like I don't love.
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: Too many of these, like we're gonna get to the
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: care skatess of the world, et cetera. That's just not
• 13:00
  Speaker 2: how I'm gonna get different on this card, I'd rather
• 13:02
  Speaker 2: get different I leaving money stuff like that. So you're like,
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: we're talking so first two fights, I will be fading
• 13:08
  Speaker 2: three of the four, so I definitely might know if
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: one of those break the slate, my night's over early.
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: But guess what football's on?
• 13:16
  Speaker 2: And MMA live betting, if you live in a legal
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: state and you're grinding it like me, I think I
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: think watching other fights, I think MMA live betting is
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: one of the biggest edge out theres. So keep that
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: in mind as well. If you do have the luxury
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: of doing that, keep it rolling. Next fight on the
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: card fourteen to talk about Migamed Gods Zuzula of taking
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: on Bruno Lopez minus two sixty four Migamed plus two
• 13:38
  Speaker 2: twenty four Lopez. This fights minus one seventy to finish
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: guys z Zula plus one twenty five inside the distance
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: Lopez plus two to seventy five. One thing I wanted
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: to point out, this was minus two hundred early in
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: the week, Now it's minus one seventy.
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: Some money has come.
• 13:54
  Speaker 2: In on the over also, Gayzia Azula has taken about
• 13:57
  Speaker 2: forty cents minus two twenty two earlier week, now minus
• 14:01
  Speaker 2: two to sixty. This is one of the fights I
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: really wanted your take on, so I'm gonna throw it
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: to you right away.
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: How do you see the fight going? How do you
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: like it for DFS?
• 14:09
  Speaker 3: I do like this fight for DFS because I think
• 14:13
  Speaker 3: both sides have a path to the optimal lineup. Gadzius,
• 14:17
  Speaker 3: who loves biggest edge in this fight is gonna be
• 14:21
  Speaker 3: his wrestling. If he can land takedowns. I think he
• 14:23
  Speaker 3: could land multiple takedowns. But I also think he could
• 14:26
  Speaker 3: control the fight for eight plus minutes and just put
• 14:30
  Speaker 3: up a pretty solid score, especially if he can win
• 14:33
  Speaker 3: every round. Lopez, I don't know if he has the
• 14:38
  Speaker 3: striking edge. I think he's the more dangerous striker, and
• 14:41
  Speaker 3: if he is gonna win the fights, I think it's
• 14:43
  Speaker 3: gonna come on the feet. He could win a three
• 14:46
  Speaker 3: round striking match, but I think that that would be
• 14:48
  Speaker 3: close either way. If it's three round striking match, I
• 14:51
  Speaker 3: don't even really know who wins that one. So I
• 14:53
  Speaker 3: just gotta lean towards Gadzius, who love winning the fight
• 14:56
  Speaker 3: just because he has way more ways to win. But
• 14:58
  Speaker 3: he's gonna have to wrestle heavily to be on the
• 15:00
  Speaker 3: optimal lineup and then the low Pez side. I think
• 15:04
  Speaker 3: he has a decent chance at knocking Gadziasulov out, so
• 15:07
  Speaker 3: I seventy four hundred dollars. I'm cool with him too.
• 15:10
  Speaker 3: I'd say this is even closer to a five star
• 15:14
  Speaker 3: than a three star for me. I do want it
• 15:16
  Speaker 3: in a good amount of my lineups, but I wouldn't
• 15:17
  Speaker 3: make a rule or anything. I could see seventy points
• 15:21
  Speaker 3: from either side anywhere from seventy to like one hundred
• 15:24
  Speaker 3: and ten, so I'd imagine I'm close to the field
• 15:28
  Speaker 3: on both sides. But my preferred play is the wrestler.
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: My preferred play is Lopez due to the salary, the
• 15:37
  Speaker 2: fourteen hundred.
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: I don't love too.
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: Too many dogs on this card, and he has one
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: of the best inside the distance props in that lower
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: tier plus two to seventy five. It looks like a
• 15:45
  Speaker 2: guy that'll fight for your dollar. But I am concerned
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: Gadjiazuolo of like, what do you have last fight? I
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: want to say, like five takedowns, eleven minutes of control time.
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: That's definitely in the cards. But he scored ninety seven points.
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: He doesn't do much damage when he is on top.
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: If I told you stores ninety seven points, big Marley,
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: how much exposure do you think you'd have?
• 16:05
  Speaker 3: I'd want a good amount, probably fifty, maybe sixty.
• 16:10
  Speaker 2: See, I don't think ninety seven will be enough on
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: this card right there, And again maybe I'm the Bashie upside,
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: the Jakobe Smith upside.
• 16:19
  Speaker 3: You could be right, but I would still prefer like
• 16:22
  Speaker 3: I don't think Klein's scoring ninety seven. I don't think
• 16:26
  Speaker 3: there's a handful, but yeah, the ones copy long character, yeah,
• 16:30
  Speaker 3: but I mean yeah, just cheaper than them. So it depends.
• 16:32
  Speaker 3: There's not a lot of underdogs I like on this
• 16:34
  Speaker 3: card too, and the ones that I think are more
• 16:36
  Speaker 3: live are more expensive. So maybe it's just like you
• 16:38
  Speaker 3: can't afford those other ones either. sEH. I don't really know,
• 16:41
  Speaker 3: but I would. I probably want a good amount.
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: Him or uh Medic him mediitch Metic.
• 16:48
  Speaker 3: I say, match but whoever that we're talking again.
• 16:53
  Speaker 2: We have a pretty almost the saving ownership right now
• 16:56
  Speaker 2: to eighty eight hundred and eighty seven. Mattich has a
• 16:59
  Speaker 2: little better side the distance promp minus one oh five,
• 17:01
  Speaker 2: god Zazuo plus one twenty five, but no wrestling upside
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: on the metach side, like the god Zia Azulu side. Yeah,
• 17:08
  Speaker 2: you talked me into I was wavering. I plan on
• 17:11
  Speaker 2: being around the field on god Jia Zuol. I still
• 17:13
  Speaker 2: think I will be. I do know Lopez is my
• 17:15
  Speaker 2: preferred play because we need dogs on this card, and
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: if he wins, I think he's putting off a good score,
• 17:20
  Speaker 2: more than likely optimal for the price. But the money
• 17:23
  Speaker 2: line is going against him, which I also don't love
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: to see.
• 17:26
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I guess. I mean so when I say Gadzi
• 17:29
  Speaker 3: suols my preferred play, I guess that's if I'm making
• 17:31
  Speaker 3: a handbuilt lineup, I see me clicking his name first.
• 17:34
  Speaker 3: But if I if I build one hundred and fifty
• 17:36
  Speaker 3: and the shift to miser gives me ten percent more
• 17:39
  Speaker 3: Lopez than Gadzy Su, I'm like, all right, I'm cool. Yeah,
• 17:41
  Speaker 3: that's like everything else, and that's why I don't have
• 17:44
  Speaker 3: a preferred play.
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I would agree. I'm kind of there.
• 17:48
  Speaker 2: I just when I have been messing with builds because
• 17:50
  Speaker 2: I am fading a good amount of Chief stuff too,
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: Like I'm like playing metics, I'm playing Bash.
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm playing uh Smith like Tulio.
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: Those guys A man, the hebos I'm gonna have a
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: good amount of I just need dogs on this card,
• 18:04
  Speaker 2: so I just think I naturally end up with more
• 18:06
  Speaker 2: of them. But I don't want like thirty five percent
• 18:10
  Speaker 2: Lopez by any means, where I would be fine with
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: Gadzia Azula at that. But I could see myself maybe
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: like twenty five Lopez, twenty five guys Zizula or something
• 18:18
  Speaker 2: around there.
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: It's interesting.
• 18:20
  Speaker 2: I don't love the over taking money as well in
• 18:23
  Speaker 2: this fight too, Like minus two hundred and minus one
• 18:25
  Speaker 2: seventy is pretty steep, and I'd be shocked if either.
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: I shouldn't say either.
• 18:29
  Speaker 2: If Lopez wins a decision, like maybe it's enough, but
• 18:32
  Speaker 2: I don't even think so. I think a decision both
• 18:34
  Speaker 2: guys aren't getting there regardless of the winner.
• 18:37
  Speaker 3: I actually think I would be okay with like thirty
• 18:39
  Speaker 3: five percent Lopez because.
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: I'll be okay.
• 18:42
  Speaker 3: I won't have a ton of underdogs in my playerpool,
• 18:44
  Speaker 3: so it would probably just be like overweight to all
• 18:47
  Speaker 3: of them. Almost.
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that makes a lot of sense for sure.
• 18:50
  Speaker 3: I like it.
• 18:50
  Speaker 2: We spent a good amount of time on that fight,
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: but that was one that I'd highlighted on this on
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: this card, that I did want Big Marley's takes right there,
• 18:58
  Speaker 2: So I'm fine thirdwenty five, twenty five probably either side.
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: I guess I would maybe be fining thirty five Lopez.
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: Maybe I'd bump it down to thirty and try and
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: mix and mass some of those other dogs. I do
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: really love this comment. Shout out to you, Sam Pierce.
• 19:12
  Speaker 2: Appreciate the word. Finally caught you guys live. I want
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: to say thank you for the content winning money because
• 19:16
  Speaker 2: of you. Hey, gotta give yourself credit too. You are
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: clicking the buttons at the end of the day, but
• 19:20
  Speaker 2: we do try and help the game theory wise. When
• 19:23
  Speaker 2: you win, how much do you win? I'm glad you're
• 19:25
  Speaker 2: finding this content helpful. So shout out to Sam Pierce.
• 19:28
  Speaker 2: We appreciate that comments a lot. Keep it rolling. Next
• 19:32
  Speaker 2: fight on the card, Arnesta Karas Kate taking on Nicole
• 19:36
  Speaker 2: Calliari minus two sixty Karas Skate a plus two twenty
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: Kalari plus one seventy five for this fight to finish,
• 19:43
  Speaker 2: Karas Skates plus three hundred Kalari plus four to twenty
• 19:46
  Speaker 2: five very easy for me. We're talking upside in the
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: nine case. I don't think the striker in karas skates
• 19:52
  Speaker 2: A has that one hundred plus one hundred ten plus upside.
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: Of course anybody does at the end of the day.
• 19:58
  Speaker 2: But I just don't think out of ten times or
• 20:00
  Speaker 2: something like that, she's plus seven hundred and round one.
• 20:04
  Speaker 2: Just a striker, no wrestling upside, So she's a easy
• 20:07
  Speaker 2: fade for me, and naturally if I'm fading her, I
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: should have maybe some interest on the other side, but
• 20:13
  Speaker 2: I actually do. I will say this stands out right away.
• 20:16
  Speaker 2: Six inches in height ker skates is big for the division,
• 20:19
  Speaker 2: nine inches in reach. What I do like about Caliari
• 20:22
  Speaker 2: though she's a wrestler grappler, she if she wins, she's
• 20:26
  Speaker 2: gonna get takedown, She's gonna spend time on top. She
• 20:29
  Speaker 2: got a first round arm bar in her last fight.
• 20:32
  Speaker 2: I don't love many dogs. You have this as a
• 20:34
  Speaker 2: one star, so maybe you are fading it fully, but
• 20:37
  Speaker 2: I will be playing some Caliari in the lower tier again.
• 20:40
  Speaker 2: If she wins, I think she's getting multiple takedowns, maybe
• 20:43
  Speaker 2: six seven minutes on top.
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: Sign me up for that any single day.
• 20:47
  Speaker 2: And as always, women's MMA fights always seem to play
• 20:50
  Speaker 2: out closer than what the odds give so, Yeah, I'm
• 20:52
  Speaker 2: gonna play some Kaliari. I'm not gonna play any care
• 20:56
  Speaker 2: skate day. Are you gonna play any of this fight?
• 21:00
  Speaker 3: Yeah? I actually just change my stars on this one
• 21:03
  Speaker 3: to the four stars for Kaliar, because if I am
• 21:06
  Speaker 3: playing this fight, it would be her.
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: Uh.
• 21:08
  Speaker 3: But I just don't see me getting to any Kara Katy,
• 21:11
  Speaker 3: even if I have one hundred and fifty, I would
• 21:12
  Speaker 3: just rather x her out and make my player pool
• 21:15
  Speaker 3: smaller and let that one hundred and fifty come from
• 21:18
  Speaker 3: those players instead. So, uh, underdog or pass. But I
• 21:22
  Speaker 3: just think the issue is that I don't think Kaliar
• 21:25
  Speaker 3: is a good enough wrestler. She's gonna have to wrestle
• 21:27
  Speaker 3: in this fight. I don't think she has any chance
• 21:29
  Speaker 3: on the feet. She looks really sloppy on the feed.
• 21:31
  Speaker 3: I think she gets picked apart. And I actually, I mean,
• 21:34
  Speaker 3: if she can't get takedowns and she's just so sloppy,
• 21:37
  Speaker 3: maybe Kara Katy could get a TKO that way and
• 21:39
  Speaker 3: be on the optimal lineup, so it's not like.
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: She.
• 21:44
  Speaker 3: I mean, maybe I should put like five percent or
• 21:47
  Speaker 3: so just for the hell of it. But I'm also
• 21:50
  Speaker 3: not gonna max like the twenty dollars. If I max,
• 21:52
  Speaker 3: it's gonna be like the three dollars, So I'd rather
• 21:54
  Speaker 3: just x her out for that reason. But I would
• 21:56
  Speaker 3: play her a little bit for the TKO upside if
• 22:01
  Speaker 3: I was trying to play seriously with one hundred and
• 22:03
  Speaker 3: fifty and then Kliari. But if she is gonna win
• 22:06
  Speaker 3: the fight, it's gonna come to wrestling probably three plus takedowns,
• 22:11
  Speaker 3: and she's gonna score ten x or more. In my opinion,
• 22:14
  Speaker 3: I just don't think she's good enough to do that.
• 22:16
  Speaker 3: This fight's gonna stay on the feet more than not
• 22:18
  Speaker 3: in Karakaty should win.
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: I agree with you.
• 22:22
  Speaker 2: I think Karakaty wins a decision like I would be
• 22:24
  Speaker 2: shocked at a finish. But plus three hundred is not
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: good relative to a lot of those others in the
• 22:30
  Speaker 2: nine k range, And if the others have like a
• 22:32
  Speaker 2: worse finishing odds like Dashie like he has all the
• 22:35
  Speaker 2: restling upside in the world, there's just no takedown upside
• 22:38
  Speaker 2: in this. Again, I wont one hundred ten plus, I'm
• 22:41
  Speaker 2: telling myself. In the upper tier, I'd be shocked if
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: I were to play any she's plus seven hundred in
• 22:48
  Speaker 2: round one. What is that I've started to do that more.
• 22:50
  Speaker 2: I like, how like you plug it in. Let's see
• 22:53
  Speaker 2: twelve percent, which would be overweights. But do we have
• 22:57
  Speaker 2: Karos Tesch. We have her exactly twelve percent. I wouldn't
• 22:59
  Speaker 2: be some prize if it's like seven percent. So we
• 23:02
  Speaker 2: do have that overweight. But I mean i'd sign up
• 23:05
  Speaker 2: for a first round and finish any day at that ownership.
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: It's still not guaranteed to be enough, but yeah, it's
• 23:10
  Speaker 2: I'm not playing Karas Skates. I'm not playing one fifty
• 23:12
  Speaker 2: this week. I'll probably play like twenty or something and
• 23:16
  Speaker 2: the twenty dollars. That's how I make this late plan.
• 23:18
  Speaker 2: I'll have more action in NFL. The contests are absolutely huge,
• 23:21
  Speaker 2: but I think I can get different in enough ways
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: not to play Karas skatesy, but I will play some
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: of the other girl Caliari. Nothing for me else in
• 23:31
  Speaker 2: that one. We will keep it moving again. I appreciate
• 23:34
  Speaker 2: everyone watching Light Button Subscribe button does help us out
• 23:37
  Speaker 2: a ton. This one real simple for me. Jacoby Smith
• 23:40
  Speaker 2: picking on Preston Parsons. We have Jacoby Smith minus five
• 23:43
  Speaker 2: sixty five Parsons plus four fifteen minus two hundred for
• 23:47
  Speaker 2: this fight to finish Jacoby Smith minus one forty inside
• 23:50
  Speaker 2: the distance, Preston Parsons plus five twenty five. Couple things
• 23:54
  Speaker 2: that stand out right away. First of all, the pricing
• 23:57
  Speaker 2: seven eight hundred and ninety four hundred. You guys probably like,
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: what in the world's DraftKings doing Jacoby Smith is taking
• 24:03
  Speaker 2: this fight on short notice. Parsons was plus one fifty five. Dog.
• 24:08
  Speaker 2: I believe it was earlier in the week against blaking
• 24:11
  Speaker 2: on the name. Do you have an in front of you?
• 24:15
  Speaker 3: No, I didn't even know that. I got to it
• 24:17
  Speaker 3: after that.
• 24:18
  Speaker 2: So I can't remember who was I think it was
• 24:21
  Speaker 2: plus one fifty five. And then other dude steps or
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: drops out. Jacoby Smith steps in on short notice, making
• 24:27
  Speaker 2: his UFC debut. So the line opened right there at
• 24:31
  Speaker 2: minus three p fifty. Actually, I want to say it
• 24:33
  Speaker 2: even was smaller. Yeah, minus two ten immediately dropped to
• 24:37
  Speaker 2: the minus three forty range, and then now is minus
• 24:40
  Speaker 2: five sixty five. So a short notice guy making his
• 24:44
  Speaker 2: UFC debut, one of the biggest favorites on the card,
• 24:47
  Speaker 2: expected to finish at minus one forty. Parsons has foughts
• 24:50
  Speaker 2: of UFC calip He's fought the UFC three point five
• 24:54
  Speaker 2: to three takedowns, like he's not a bum by any means.
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: That shows how highly people think of Jacoby Smith and
• 25:00
  Speaker 2: watching him man the seven takedowns on Contender series Nasty Nasty,
• 25:04
  Speaker 2: ground and pound heavy hands. I mean, I think he's
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: the best play on the slate, like if ownership didn't matter.
• 25:11
  Speaker 2: That's part of the reason I'm telling myself I need
• 25:13
  Speaker 2: one hundred and ten plus because I think Jakobe Smith
• 25:15
  Speaker 2: is putting up a big boys score, so I'm not
• 25:18
  Speaker 2: getting a parsons. If I played one hundred and fifty,
• 25:21
  Speaker 2: I would definitely play some parsons because you get a
• 25:24
  Speaker 2: lot of leverage if he wins. It was similar to
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: SELECTI he's plus four to fifteen inside the dissans plus
• 25:30
  Speaker 2: five twenty five is so he's plus four fifteen money
• 25:35
  Speaker 2: line plus five to twenty five inside the dissans and
• 25:38
  Speaker 2: plus five fifty by sub if he wins. They think
• 25:41
  Speaker 2: it's just like Soelecki, it's by submission forty five percent
• 25:45
  Speaker 2: or whatever. Smith lineups are dead. Parsons by sub seventy
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: eight hundred though, is what really kept me back, Like
• 25:51
  Speaker 2: it's not seven k, he's not sixty eight hundred, He's
• 25:54
  Speaker 2: seventy eight hundred because they thought he was a plus
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: one fifty five underdog. So I'm not getting Parsons. I'm
• 26:00
  Speaker 2: not playing enough teams. Smith is the best player in
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: the Slight in my opinion.
• 26:04
  Speaker 3: That's because I didn't even notice his price tag. But
• 26:07
  Speaker 3: that just makes it easier for me to fade him.
• 26:09
  Speaker 3: I don't want any Parsons. Actually, I do think Parsons,
• 26:12
  Speaker 3: like in most other matchups, would be a pretty solid
• 26:16
  Speaker 3: play as an underdog because if he wins, he's a
• 26:18
  Speaker 3: pretty high paced wrestler, grinder, grappler type of guy where
• 26:22
  Speaker 3: he should put up a solid score if he if
• 26:24
  Speaker 3: he gets his hand raised. But Smith looks solid man.
• 26:28
  Speaker 3: Smith looks really good. He's got some big power in
• 26:31
  Speaker 3: his hands. I think he dominates his fight on the feet.
• 26:34
  Speaker 3: I don't think Parsons is gonna like the shots that
• 26:36
  Speaker 3: Smith is thrown at him. And then I was like,
• 26:39
  Speaker 3: all right, well, Parsons chance is to wrestle, And then
• 26:41
  Speaker 3: I watched the Contender Series fight. I'm like, oh my god,
• 26:44
  Speaker 3: this guy's gonna he's a better wrestler than Parsons. Parson's
• 26:47
  Speaker 3: not gonna be able to wrestle him, and then I
• 26:49
  Speaker 3: heard that he actually does have a like a really
• 26:50
  Speaker 3: good wrestling background. It wasn't just that one fight, so
• 26:53
  Speaker 3: it's like, yeah, I'm I'm all in on Smith. Basically
• 26:57
  Speaker 3: I want him and more than sixty percent of my lineups,
• 27:03
  Speaker 3: maybe eighty percent of my lineups, Like he's my favorite
• 27:05
  Speaker 3: player on the card. I think he gets the first
• 27:07
  Speaker 3: round knockout. I don't think Parsons has anything for him.
• 27:10
  Speaker 3: I think the UFC saw him go one for nine
• 27:12
  Speaker 3: and takedowns in his last fight, and they're like, you know,
• 27:15
  Speaker 3: let's feed him to that that can send her city
• 27:17
  Speaker 3: stud So give me Smith first round knockout. One hundred
• 27:20
  Speaker 3: and ten and fifteen points.
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: To answer this question, my you donkey, what am I doing? Yeah?
• 27:30
  Speaker 2: To answer this question, Jacoby Smith would be my favorite captain.
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: I don't play the captain mode.
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: I do know like salary has to do with it,
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: so althwise it would be he Boss or Duran if
• 27:41
  Speaker 2: like it makes others fit.
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: Gun to my hat.
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: Who scores the most DraftKings points this week? It is
• 27:45
  Speaker 2: Jacoby Smith. Now to answer the other question, who would
• 27:48
  Speaker 2: be more likely for the first win bonus? I think
• 27:52
  Speaker 2: I would say Tulio. I don't see anyone doing it there.
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: I would say Tulio though, because ehor Petaria can come
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: out guns blazing. Tulio's got power. Sixty seconds is definitely quick,
• 28:02
  Speaker 2: but no strongly on that. Do you have an answer
• 28:05
  Speaker 2: to both these questions?
• 28:06
  Speaker 3: Smith?
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: For both you said Smith to both, Yeah, yeah, I
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: like it. I like it.
• 28:12
  Speaker 2: Let's keep it going. Next fight on the card one.
• 28:15
  Speaker 2: I do not have much interest. Only three fights in
• 28:17
  Speaker 2: the mid tier this week. Again, Parsons fight was gonna
• 28:20
  Speaker 2: be in the mid tier. I'm not counting it now,
• 28:22
  Speaker 2: even though he is seventy eight hundred. One of three fights,
• 28:25
  Speaker 2: it's this one. It's the main and the comain, and
• 28:27
  Speaker 2: this by far is my least favorite in the mid tier.
• 28:30
  Speaker 2: Tiaga moys is taken on Trey Ogden minus one eighty
• 28:33
  Speaker 2: Thiago Moysis plus one fifty five is Ogden plus one
• 28:37
  Speaker 2: ninety five for this fight to finish Moises plus two
• 28:39
  Speaker 2: eighty five inside the distance Ogden plus five point fifty.
• 28:43
  Speaker 2: You can see both guys definitely some experience. Thirty five
• 28:48
  Speaker 2: years old for Ogden, twenty nine for Moysis. My preferred
• 28:52
  Speaker 2: play is Thiago Moysis because mainly the upside like the
• 28:55
  Speaker 2: and sudden This is prop plus two eighty five versus
• 28:58
  Speaker 2: plus five to fifty. But what are both guys known
• 29:01
  Speaker 2: for grappling? What could happens when both guys are known
• 29:05
  Speaker 2: for the same thing and very well can negate itself.
• 29:08
  Speaker 2: If we get a striking match in this one, it
• 29:10
  Speaker 2: is going to be boring, like the Trey Ogden Zel
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: Hubert type stuff. I mean, Moiss has good leg kicks,
• 29:17
  Speaker 2: Ogden as a fine jab like. I think this fight
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: is gonna be boring. I hope it's maybe I should
• 29:23
  Speaker 2: circle back you guys, I won't have much in DFS.
• 29:25
  Speaker 2: I probably don't have hope it's a grappling match. It
• 29:27
  Speaker 2: would be a lot of fun to watch these two scramble.
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: It would actually score maybe in DFS, but yeah, I
• 29:33
  Speaker 2: don't want it to really score. I don't like this
• 29:35
  Speaker 2: fight Moisis if I had to pick, but I think
• 29:38
  Speaker 2: it mainly stays on the feet because I think they're
• 29:41
  Speaker 2: grappling and stuff can negave each other. But I guess
• 29:44
  Speaker 2: if someone were to dominate from top, I probably think
• 29:47
  Speaker 2: it's Ogden. But again, is Moiss is more dangerous and
• 29:53
  Speaker 2: that's what the inside of this is. Prop shows like
• 29:55
  Speaker 2: plus two eighty five versus plus five fifty is a
• 29:58
  Speaker 2: wide margin. Long stories show though I don't like this
• 30:00
  Speaker 2: fight much, what about you?
• 30:03
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't really care for it too much. I'm
• 30:05
  Speaker 3: fine with either side because of their grappling upside. Ogden's
• 30:12
  Speaker 3: coming off his best three performances. He looks like he's
• 30:15
  Speaker 3: in the prime of his career. But I mean, this
• 30:19
  Speaker 3: just isn't. This isn't who else even fighting Halla Bah
• 30:23
  Speaker 3: and freaking Nicholas. This is one of Thiago moist is
• 30:30
  Speaker 3: easiest matchups he's had in the UFC, and he's had
• 30:32
  Speaker 3: like ten plus UFC fights. So I have to side
• 30:35
  Speaker 3: with with Moises just to be the better grappler. My
• 30:38
  Speaker 3: issue with these guys that they don't wrestle as much
• 30:40
  Speaker 3: as I would like. But Ogden has been lately. I
• 30:43
  Speaker 3: just don't think it's gonna work as easy in this fight.
• 30:45
  Speaker 3: And you're not gonna be able to lay on Moises.
• 30:47
  Speaker 3: You might be in trouble on the ground against Moistest,
• 30:50
  Speaker 3: So give me Moises to win. I just don't know
• 30:52
  Speaker 3: how how he wants to win. I don't know what
• 30:55
  Speaker 3: his game plan is, and yeah, you're right. If this
• 30:57
  Speaker 3: is a striking matches, neither one of them hitting ten.
• 31:00
  Speaker 3: So that's kind of what I'm hoping for because I
• 31:03
  Speaker 3: will be underweight to the field, but with one hundred
• 31:05
  Speaker 3: and fifty, I'm fine sprinkling in both guys.
• 31:08
  Speaker 2: Yeah, one hundred percent, and like they will, this will
• 31:11
  Speaker 2: be a very low owned fight. Now, I don't like
• 31:14
  Speaker 2: if I was playing one to fifty and playing them,
• 31:16
  Speaker 2: I don't like just like, oh, I'm not going to
• 31:18
  Speaker 2: play Hebos, I'm gonna go Moises to get different. I
• 31:20
  Speaker 2: don't like the one v one pivots there. If I'm
• 31:22
  Speaker 2: playing this fight, I'm more than likely zeroing out my
• 31:24
  Speaker 2: salary or leaving like one hundred with the moistest and
• 31:29
  Speaker 2: my other line was pretty chalky, my other stuff in
• 31:31
  Speaker 2: the lineup, and then like that is how I get different.
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: But I don't want much of this fight.
• 31:36
  Speaker 2: Again, I won't be playing one hundred and fifty, so
• 31:38
  Speaker 2: I'm keeping them in my pool. I'm camping them at
• 31:41
  Speaker 2: both probably like thirteen percent, and I'd be fine if
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: I had zero as well. When it is all said
• 31:46
  Speaker 2: and done, I'm hoping for a striking match, but the
• 31:49
  Speaker 2: reason to keep them both in both out.
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: Both good grapplers.
• 31:53
  Speaker 2: If one were to be a lot better, which we
• 31:55
  Speaker 2: don't expect that, but if one to were to be
• 31:58
  Speaker 2: and they spend eleven minutes on top of get a
• 32:00
  Speaker 2: sub etctera, there is upside that way. Obviously, DraftKings better
• 32:04
  Speaker 2: fight or scoring favors fighters that can get it to
• 32:09
  Speaker 2: the mat with the top control, reversals, all that, et cetera.
• 32:12
  Speaker 2: Whereas fan duel more so weights on the early finishes
• 32:15
  Speaker 2: first round, second round does not help wrestlers very much.
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: Let's keep it rolling.
• 32:21
  Speaker 2: Next fight on the card one of the biggest favorites,
• 32:23
  Speaker 2: Marco Tulio taking on ehr Peteria, one of the most.
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: Likely to finish on the card.
• 32:28
  Speaker 2: I do believe the most likely it is, but you
• 32:30
  Speaker 2: see it open minus six hundred, Now it's minus.
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: Four to fifty to finish.
• 32:34
  Speaker 2: Tulio minus three fifteen inside the distance, the best on
• 32:37
  Speaker 2: the slate, ehrre Material plus six fifty. I see you
• 32:41
  Speaker 2: got it a five star and everything on the Tulio side.
• 32:44
  Speaker 2: So does that mean you are not playing any ehor.
• 32:49
  Speaker 3: So ehor due to Cova SELECTI are all really the
• 32:53
  Speaker 3: same to me? If they win, they I think they
• 32:56
  Speaker 3: all could break the slate. I just don't think they're
• 32:59
  Speaker 3: very likely lee to win, so I don't really want
• 33:04
  Speaker 3: much of them. I would be fine with any of
• 33:07
  Speaker 3: them if I loved the rest of my lineup. That's it.
• 33:11
  Speaker 3: That's the only way I get to him with a
• 33:12
  Speaker 3: handbuild with the shift to Miser, I'd probably set a
• 33:17
  Speaker 3: max at seven percent something like that, and and hope
• 33:22
  Speaker 3: I get five or under. Yeah, all three of them
• 33:26
  Speaker 3: i'd be fine with. I think if if Iwor wins
• 33:28
  Speaker 3: his fights, probably an early knockout, and if it goes
• 33:32
  Speaker 3: past the first round, I think, uh, Tulio starts to
• 33:36
  Speaker 3: take over. I also think Tulio is more likely to
• 33:37
  Speaker 3: win in the first round, so he's definitely my preferred play.
• 33:40
  Speaker 3: I like Tulio a lot. I don't love ninety six
• 33:43
  Speaker 3: hundred dollars because I prefer pay two hundred dollars less
• 33:46
  Speaker 3: for Smith, But I'm definitely cool getting over weight to
• 33:49
  Speaker 3: Tulio if I can. I just feel like for me
• 33:52
  Speaker 3: to get overweight to Tulio, I might have to get
• 33:55
  Speaker 3: a couple due to COVID lineups and a couple SELECTI lineups,
• 33:58
  Speaker 3: So I don't know. We'll see I haven't made line yet,
• 34:00
  Speaker 3: but I mean ideally I don't get to e or
• 34:04
  Speaker 3: and I'm overweight to U Tulio. I just don't know
• 34:06
  Speaker 3: how much I can fit with the underdogs that I
• 34:09
  Speaker 3: really like want to play.
• 34:12
  Speaker 2: I'm with you because I'm not playing due to COVID
• 34:14
  Speaker 2: or so lucky, like I'm gonna play some ehor maybe
• 34:18
  Speaker 2: like I'm gonna cap him at like thirteen percent, which
• 34:20
  Speaker 2: would be overweight, and I'd be fine if I got zero.
• 34:23
  Speaker 2: You do get some leverage off of Tulio. We got
• 34:25
  Speaker 2: him about thirty five percent.
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: Now.
• 34:28
  Speaker 2: He has by far the best inside of this is
• 34:30
  Speaker 2: prop on the site over minus three hundred. The best
• 34:32
  Speaker 2: round one prop on the site I plus one fifty.
• 34:35
  Speaker 2: I don't see wrestling upside too much, though, What about you?
• 34:38
  Speaker 2: How much wrestling upside do you see for him?
• 34:41
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm not sure at the way I see the
• 34:44
  Speaker 3: fight going downs. He knocks him out in the first round,
• 34:46
  Speaker 3: so none, but I think he could if he wanted to,
• 34:49
  Speaker 3: he could play in four plus takedowns, So I don't know.
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 34:54
  Speaker 2: The thing is, I just love Jacobe Smith so much
• 34:56
  Speaker 2: more and like the Bashies of the world, like if
• 35:01
  Speaker 2: Bashi wins. He's I'm really curious on your take there
• 35:04
  Speaker 2: when we get to that fight. But I mean, he's
• 35:05
  Speaker 2: just gonna want to wrestle for days, Like there's cheaper
• 35:07
  Speaker 2: fighters that even if Tulio did get a first round
• 35:11
  Speaker 2: knockout and gets you one oh seven, that's not guaranteed
• 35:14
  Speaker 2: to be enough at ninety six hundred.
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: Now I would I would definitely take it.
• 35:18
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna play some Tulio, but I think because of
• 35:20
  Speaker 2: how much Jakobe Smith, I like, I'm not sure I'm
• 35:23
  Speaker 2: gonna be able to get overweight and Ihorr again because
• 35:27
  Speaker 2: I'm not playing due to COVID SELECTI I'm gonna play some,
• 35:30
  Speaker 2: but I like El Hassanmore, I like Colliari Moore, Chris
• 35:34
  Speaker 2: Curtis Moore, c Rod Moore, Lopez Moore, Sirehano Moore, Boonez More.
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: I just went up the list on pricing again.
• 35:41
  Speaker 2: He has a significant amount less than some of those guys,
• 35:45
  Speaker 2: But I just don't think he really wins at the
• 35:47
  Speaker 2: end of the day. So I don't know how many
• 35:48
  Speaker 2: lineups I want to plug in a guy that I
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: think gets you eight to twelve points. So yeah, it's
• 35:55
  Speaker 2: a it's a fight that I thought i'd have more
• 35:57
  Speaker 2: interest in going into it, especially being minus four fifty
• 36:00
  Speaker 2: to finish. But again I can see pass where first
• 36:03
  Speaker 2: round two yeo knockout still doesn't get there and ihor
• 36:06
  Speaker 2: plus four hundred dog, but I'm gonna.
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: Have some of both.
• 36:09
  Speaker 2: I imagine any final thoughts on that one before you it's.
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: The next.
• 36:14
  Speaker 3: Now that one U because of him mostly Smith, and
• 36:19
  Speaker 3: then the main event. Those are my my favorite tart
• 36:21
  Speaker 3: That's why they're all five stars. But for the two fights,
• 36:24
  Speaker 3: it's more because of the one side where.
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: You have a you have three just five saves.
• 36:30
  Speaker 3: Oh shit, I do like, yeah, well cool with both
• 36:33
  Speaker 3: sides of that matters, So we'll get to that soon.
• 36:34
  Speaker 2: Yeah, yep, what's up, Wins a Lot. Let's have a week. Indeed,
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: hope everything's going well with you. Was nice meeting you
• 36:40
  Speaker 2: in Arizona. You've had I think a couple couple of
• 36:44
  Speaker 2: nice screenshots. I believe in the NBA chants, So good
• 36:46
  Speaker 2: luck to you, Wins a Lot, appreciate your support.
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: Let's keep it going. Next fight on the card.
• 36:51
  Speaker 2: I expect this one to be pretty fun DFS wise,
• 36:54
  Speaker 2: though interesting minus one seventy five hose Johnson plus one
• 36:57
  Speaker 2: fifty Felipe minus one for this fight to finish, Johnson
• 37:01
  Speaker 2: plus one seventy five inside the distance, boon Yez plus
• 37:05
  Speaker 2: three sixty. I'm gonna throw it to you to start
• 37:07
  Speaker 2: to break it down. All I have to say is,
• 37:10
  Speaker 2: how in the world can you weigh one hundred and
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: twenty five pounds and be six feet tall? Obviously the
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: new cuts hellowwaight, but man, that is insane. That fly
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: away to be six feet tall? What's even almost as crazy?
• 37:21
  Speaker 2: You have that five and tight advantage, but the reach
• 37:23
  Speaker 2: is still only two inches. Take this one away, though,
• 37:26
  Speaker 2: I see you only have it as a three star.
• 37:29
  Speaker 3: Yeah, this one. I kind of am all right with
• 37:32
  Speaker 3: either side of it. I think Johnson does win because
• 37:37
  Speaker 3: both of them, I guess are primarily strikers. But I
• 37:41
  Speaker 3: like Johnson to have the striking edge. I like him
• 37:43
  Speaker 3: to be more dangerous. What is it, Boyne Bunees. He's
• 37:48
  Speaker 3: coming off of a TKO loss too, so that's not great.
• 37:54
  Speaker 3: Johnson's big issue is that he has no takedown defense.
• 37:58
  Speaker 3: So I think it would be really smart Boone's to
• 38:00
  Speaker 3: go out there and look to wrestle heavily and possibly
• 38:04
  Speaker 3: start to look for some chokes at some point. I
• 38:06
  Speaker 3: think he's very live to win this fight on the ground.
• 38:09
  Speaker 3: He just I don't think he's gonna wrestle as much
• 38:11
  Speaker 3: as I would like him to, and on the feed,
• 38:13
  Speaker 3: I think it could play out close. So that's what's
• 38:17
  Speaker 3: making me lean towards Boone as being my preferred play.
• 38:20
  Speaker 3: Is just like he could really win this fight anyway.
• 38:22
  Speaker 3: I don't see him knocking out Johnson, but I could
• 38:24
  Speaker 3: see him winning a striking match. I could definitely see
• 38:28
  Speaker 3: him win in the fight on the ground, but my
• 38:32
  Speaker 3: pick is Johnson to win by t KO. However, for DFS,
• 38:36
  Speaker 3: it's like t K O or Bus, like early TK
• 38:39
  Speaker 3: or BUS probably for Johnson. So I don't love him
• 38:43
  Speaker 3: for that reason. And on a card that I'm searching
• 38:45
  Speaker 3: for underdogs, I just have a feeling I'm gonna end
• 38:47
  Speaker 3: up overweight to Boone. Is just yelling at him to wrestle.
• 38:50
  Speaker 3: Wressell wrestle, and I doubt he does, but we'll see.
• 38:53
  Speaker 3: I'm picking Johnson to win, but I'm kind of hoping
• 38:55
  Speaker 3: that I'm wrong because I see me being overweight to
• 38:58
  Speaker 3: the underdog here.
• 39:00
  Speaker 2: The exact same way. But I do think Bunez wrestled
• 39:02
  Speaker 2: because I think he has to. Like I Johnson's a
• 39:04
  Speaker 2: slick striker, I not many want to stand with him.
• 39:07
  Speaker 2: I think early Bonez might feel that length, feel that power,
• 39:11
  Speaker 2: and like why wouldn't he wrestle, Like we've shown it
• 39:13
  Speaker 2: obviously a very small sample.
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: It's just the Joshua Ban fight, but another.
• 39:17
  Speaker 2: Very good striker he took on where he's like, screw that,
• 39:20
  Speaker 2: Like I need to get into the map easier path
• 39:23
  Speaker 2: to victory.
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: So I do think he wrestles.
• 39:25
  Speaker 2: And for that reason, one thousand dollars difference, we play
• 39:28
  Speaker 2: a salary based game, I will add more Bonez than
• 39:31
  Speaker 2: Jose Johnson. I will say our ownership right now, we
• 39:35
  Speaker 2: have Johnson at fifteen percent, Maniches one hundred more. Kebas
• 39:39
  Speaker 2: is one hundred less god Yezula Bashi a little bit more.
• 39:43
  Speaker 2: I mean that's really like, that is someone that is
• 39:47
  Speaker 2: a pivot that I will have in my pool and
• 39:49
  Speaker 2: chalk your lineups. His wrong one prop is plus five hundred.
• 39:52
  Speaker 2: That's sixteen point seven percent probability which we have over
• 39:56
  Speaker 2: his projected ownership.
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: And I do think that ownership is right.
• 39:59
  Speaker 2: Like people want he boss, people want Bashie, but minus
• 40:03
  Speaker 2: one seventy five for the price isn't great. So Johnson
• 40:06
  Speaker 2: is one of those guys in the top tier. He
• 40:08
  Speaker 2: has power. If he does get done in round one,
• 40:11
  Speaker 2: he can rate the slate. I will say in a
• 40:13
  Speaker 2: lot of my Johnson lineups, I don't think I want
• 40:15
  Speaker 2: to be leaving heaps the salary because I don't think
• 40:18
  Speaker 2: his upside like plus one hundred fifteen plus like some
• 40:21
  Speaker 2: of these wrestlers. Like you said, if not many dogs win,
• 40:25
  Speaker 2: we don't love the cheaper tier. It could be a
• 40:27
  Speaker 2: week where you leave zero dollars one hundred dollars and
• 40:30
  Speaker 2: with fourteen fights on the card, a fifteen percent of
• 40:33
  Speaker 2: Johnson could be enough where it's like a seven dupe
• 40:36
  Speaker 2: win something like that, which at the end of the day,
• 40:38
  Speaker 2: I'm fined with MMA is getting a lot sharper. You
• 40:40
  Speaker 2: give me less than ten dup win, I will take it. So, yeah,
• 40:44
  Speaker 2: Johnson in chalkier lineups and I probably won't leave much salary.
• 40:48
  Speaker 2: But Bunya is definitely my preferred play because I do
• 40:51
  Speaker 2: think he wrestles. He's one k cheaper and seventy six
• 40:54
  Speaker 2: hundred and below. He has the best odds on the
• 40:56
  Speaker 2: slate at plus one fifty money line, which isn't bad
• 40:59
  Speaker 2: at all. So yeah, I think it's a it's a
• 41:01
  Speaker 2: I think it's an interesting fight and one I am
• 41:03
  Speaker 2: excited to watch in real life.
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: Like Jose Johnson's got hands and he is so.
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: Big for the division, I think it'll be a pretty
• 41:10
  Speaker 2: interesting stylistic clash.
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: Keep it going.
• 41:13
  Speaker 2: I know you're pretty excited for this one, and I'm
• 41:15
  Speaker 2: excited for your take. Euros Metich taken on poona Helli
• 41:18
  Speaker 2: Soriano minus two twenty Medicic plus one eighty five Soriato
• 41:22
  Speaker 2: minus two hundred for this fight to finish metas one
• 41:25
  Speaker 2: oh five minus one oh five inside of this in
• 41:28
  Speaker 2: Soriano plus three thirty five. I'm gonna throw it to
• 41:31
  Speaker 2: you with a question, and it's not anything about the fight.
• 41:34
  Speaker 2: Is it Menich or a mid Beach? And then from
• 41:36
  Speaker 2: there take it away. I'm breaking down this fight.
• 41:39
  Speaker 3: I don't know what it is, but I call him
• 41:41
  Speaker 3: mediic alright, So that's what I'm gonna go with.
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: Cool.
• 41:46
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it's a great DFS fight, just both
• 41:48
  Speaker 3: sides of it. And that's why it's a five star.
• 41:50
  Speaker 3: I forgot because it's not a one side that I like.
• 41:53
  Speaker 3: It's just let me up. I'm cool on either side
• 41:55
  Speaker 3: of this one, but I put Poona as my preferred
• 41:58
  Speaker 3: play because I just think he has more ways to win.
• 42:02
  Speaker 3: Either one of these guys could get a first round
• 42:04
  Speaker 3: knockout score one hundred plus that way. I think that
• 42:07
  Speaker 3: Medicic is the better overall striker. I think he's got
• 42:11
  Speaker 3: more tools in a striking toolbox. There's a little more
• 42:14
  Speaker 3: talented overall on the feet, But Soriano could still win
• 42:19
  Speaker 3: a striking match in my opinion, not only with a knockout,
• 42:23
  Speaker 3: but I think he could win over the course of
• 42:25
  Speaker 3: three rounds too. But I also just loved Soriano's last performance,
• 42:29
  Speaker 3: especially with that wrestling, and I think he could do
• 42:32
  Speaker 3: that here too. So if he pulls off the wrestling,
• 42:35
  Speaker 3: even in a decision, I just have a hard time
• 42:37
  Speaker 3: seeing him score under ten x here, and it's probably
• 42:39
  Speaker 3: closer to one hundred than it is under ten x.
• 42:42
  Speaker 3: So I'm gonna be overweight to Soriano for sure, and
• 42:46
  Speaker 3: then Mediic I want a lot of him too. It's
• 42:49
  Speaker 3: just that I got who we've talked about Smith Fash,
• 42:56
  Speaker 3: we got rebunds. There's so many other big favorites that
• 42:58
  Speaker 3: I like where it's it's probably gonna put me a
• 43:00
  Speaker 3: little bit underweight on the Medic side, but I'd still
• 43:03
  Speaker 3: be fine with as much as I can get of him,
• 43:05
  Speaker 3: because I think we're gonna get a big score on
• 43:08
  Speaker 3: either side. I could definitely see Mediic being more likely
• 43:11
  Speaker 3: to get that first round knockout, but I'm hoping Soriano
• 43:15
  Speaker 3: comes in here with the wrestling game plan.
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I like, I.
• 43:18
  Speaker 2: Think if I had to pick Medic a little more
• 43:20
  Speaker 2: than Goadziazulav how I kivas more. But I'm gonna be
• 43:25
  Speaker 2: playing like I'd be fine me in fifty to fifty Durnhibas.
• 43:30
  Speaker 2: I don't know where I'm like. I very well might
• 43:32
  Speaker 2: have my thirty five metach. I already know Soriano's one
• 43:34
  Speaker 2: of my favorite dogs on the card. We do have
• 43:36
  Speaker 2: him as the most popular below Dern, but a lot
• 43:39
  Speaker 2: of them is eating into each other's ownership, so all
• 43:42
  Speaker 2: of them below besides Dern, we have under twenty five percent.
• 43:45
  Speaker 2: I have fourteen fight card Like, I'm not worried about
• 43:48
  Speaker 2: playing thirty percent Soriano if he's twenty five percent, since
• 43:52
  Speaker 2: if he wins, there's plenty of ways to get different.
• 43:54
  Speaker 2: He has the wrestling upside, but yeah, minus one of
• 43:56
  Speaker 2: five for medic inside the distance, I think he's the
• 43:59
  Speaker 2: better striker. His punches come at different angles. He definitely
• 44:02
  Speaker 2: hits hard. The longer fighter. Soriano just more plots forward
• 44:07
  Speaker 2: head on the center line. I think Mattis knocks him out,
• 44:12
  Speaker 2: but Soriano with that twelve hundred dollars savings, I think
• 44:16
  Speaker 2: maybe it would be my preferred play regardless. So I
• 44:18
  Speaker 2: could see myself being overweight on both guys in this
• 44:21
  Speaker 2: fight and just being overweight to the fight in general.
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: Not really too much more to add.
• 44:27
  Speaker 2: It is what minus two hundred now where it opened
• 44:29
  Speaker 2: minus two fifty, So I don't love to see that,
• 44:32
  Speaker 2: but I do like seeing five point five one significant
• 44:35
  Speaker 2: strikes per minute metage four point eight nine Soriano and
• 44:38
  Speaker 2: man Baeza.
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: I mean just cheeks.
• 44:40
  Speaker 2: He was one guy was high on that absolutely did
• 44:43
  Speaker 2: nothing in the UFC, had no chin. His offense I
• 44:47
  Speaker 2: thought was good, his offensive striking, but yeah, he showed
• 44:49
  Speaker 2: he cannot stuff a take down to save his life.
• 44:52
  Speaker 2: So hopefully that gives Soriano confidence to try and go wrestle,
• 44:56
  Speaker 2: because that's what we want in this fight.
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: I do think Mediic has a strike advantage.
• 45:00
  Speaker 2: Anything else you want to add, I saw you laughing
• 45:02
  Speaker 2: up Baza before we get to the next.
• 45:05
  Speaker 3: My god, I mean, what a pathetic performance, and that
• 45:09
  Speaker 3: I like it. It was a really good performance from Soriano.
• 45:12
  Speaker 3: But it was just such a pathetic performance from Beza.
• 45:16
  Speaker 3: So yeah, I mean, hopefully we never see him again.
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: To be honest, I highly doubt we will see him
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: ever again.
• 45:21
  Speaker 2: To be honest, I might want him to now, just
• 45:22
  Speaker 2: to lock the other guy man, very very disappointing. All right,
• 45:26
  Speaker 2: let's keep it rolling. One of my favorite fights on
• 45:29
  Speaker 2: the car. And I'm very curious to hear your take.
• 45:30
  Speaker 2: Minus two seventy Austin Bashie plus two thirty Christian Rodriguez
• 45:35
  Speaker 2: plus one seventy for this fight to finish, Bashi plus
• 45:38
  Speaker 2: three hundred inside the distance Rodriguez plus four hundred. A
• 45:43
  Speaker 2: couple things that stand out. So Austin Bashie make his
• 45:46
  Speaker 2: UFC debut twenty three years old, thirteen and oh and
• 45:49
  Speaker 2: I gotta say, who shout out to who? Always in
• 45:52
  Speaker 2: the MMA streets. I mean, man, one of the best
• 45:54
  Speaker 2: mmade DFS players out there. He told me about this
• 45:57
  Speaker 2: Austin Bashi kid at my wedding back in August. He
• 45:59
  Speaker 2: was fighting that week on Contender Series. I never heard
• 46:02
  Speaker 2: of him. There's a billion UFC fighter fighters out there,
• 46:05
  Speaker 2: but he's from Detroit, Michigan. This guy is so Who've
• 46:08
  Speaker 2: seen him a little bit on the regional scene. I
• 46:10
  Speaker 2: think he watched him at the casino. He watches a
• 46:12
  Speaker 2: couple of fights and he's like, this dude is wrestling
• 46:15
  Speaker 2: for days, Cardio for days, just everything you would love
• 46:18
  Speaker 2: for DFS and man looking at it. He opened plus
• 46:22
  Speaker 2: one sixty seven in this fight. Sea Rod is a
• 46:26
  Speaker 2: really good USC maybe not really good. Sea Rod is
• 46:29
  Speaker 2: definitely a very competent, solid fighter. Ended the Roal Russas Junior.
• 46:33
  Speaker 2: Hype Train dominated Cameron Simon the Jonathan Pierce UFC debut
• 46:39
  Speaker 2: short notice up away class. He held his own in
• 46:41
  Speaker 2: that one. He had a tight choke in the third round.
• 46:45
  Speaker 2: Kenny d rail is Austin Bashi hype Train minus two
• 46:49
  Speaker 2: seventy debut against Sea Rod. Talk to me and then
• 46:52
  Speaker 2: talk about DFS wise too. It's an interesting one.
• 46:57
  Speaker 3: I mean, yeah, I don't know. I'm not but willing
• 47:01
  Speaker 3: to pay the price on Bashie because se Rod is
• 47:05
  Speaker 3: really good. He's good everywhere. But yeah, I'm picking Bashi
• 47:10
  Speaker 3: to win. I think Bashi's pretty good too. I think
• 47:13
  Speaker 3: Bashi's wrestling solid. I think he can keep it up
• 47:15
  Speaker 3: for three rounds. And Rodriguez, so on the ali of
• 47:21
  Speaker 3: SELECTI Fight, I was saying, how Select You'll get taken
• 47:24
  Speaker 3: down and he'll just start hunting for submissions. He'll stay
• 47:26
  Speaker 3: on his back where Rodriguez is gonna be trying to
• 47:29
  Speaker 3: get back up, and that's gonna allow Bashie to get
• 47:31
  Speaker 3: more and more and more takedown. So he has a
• 47:34
  Speaker 3: really high ceiling. If he does come in here with
• 47:37
  Speaker 3: the wrest will have the game plan. He could score
• 47:39
  Speaker 3: one hundred and thirty plus points. I think it's just
• 47:42
  Speaker 3: that it's a tough matchup. Man if it was not
• 47:46
  Speaker 3: anybody else, But like any other type of debut matchup
• 47:49
  Speaker 3: that they give to these guys, that he'd be somebody
• 47:52
  Speaker 3: I want to be super good, Like.
• 47:53
  Speaker 2: Minus seven hundred at this point, like minus two seventy
• 47:56
  Speaker 2: over Seero is crazy, like you they're done, like the
• 48:00
  Speaker 2: h be even stuff back in the day, like somehow
• 48:03
  Speaker 2: getting minus three fifties like they're not, They're they're over
• 48:06
  Speaker 2: pricing these guys at this point. They don't want money
• 48:09
  Speaker 2: to be taken on these guys like that. I mean
• 48:11
  Speaker 2: it got to minus three hundred a couple of days
• 48:13
  Speaker 2: ago too. Some money bought back on the Sea Rod side.
• 48:17
  Speaker 2: But this line is giving a lot of credit for
• 48:20
  Speaker 2: this twenty three year old.
• 48:21
  Speaker 1: And he has the perfect style.
• 48:22
  Speaker 2: Though, like the Dulgarian fight against Sea Rod, another hype
• 48:26
  Speaker 2: train he ended the thing is Dulgarian. In that fight,
• 48:29
  Speaker 2: Dulgarian came in finishing pretty much everyone in the first round.
• 48:32
  Speaker 2: Bashie has gone to decisions. He's shown he can do
• 48:35
  Speaker 2: it for three rounds.
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: So I'm with you. I'm picking Bashie.
• 48:39
  Speaker 2: That's part of the reason I'm telling myself I want
• 48:41
  Speaker 2: one ten plus from the upper tier is because if
• 48:44
  Speaker 2: he wins, I mean, I don't see how it's not
• 48:46
  Speaker 2: one hundred plus.
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: Like he's not striking with se Rod. If he does,
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: he's not winning.
• 48:51
  Speaker 2: Sea Rod's gonna try and get up like the Smiths
• 48:53
  Speaker 2: of the world now talk about Sea Rod a little
• 48:56
  Speaker 2: for DFS.
• 48:56
  Speaker 3: Though DFS wise, like I would like. I mean, I'm
• 49:03
  Speaker 3: fine with what ce Rod DFS was. I don't think
• 49:05
  Speaker 3: he scores great. I think Bashie not being on the
• 49:08
  Speaker 3: optimal could be just that Sea Rod steals around and
• 49:12
  Speaker 3: then Bashi can't get there with the other two. But
• 49:16
  Speaker 3: I mean Sea Rod has been taking down twenty one
• 49:18
  Speaker 3: times in the octagon. There's a reason they're given Bashie
• 49:23
  Speaker 3: this matchup, I think, and I like to side with
• 49:26
  Speaker 3: the UC, so I really don't like sea Rod that much.
• 49:29
  Speaker 3: For DFS, I would rather just like take a value
• 49:32
  Speaker 3: shot on a bet probably or maybe a lot best
• 49:36
  Speaker 3: see how it's playing out, because I feel like Sea
• 49:38
  Speaker 3: Rod's more likely to come late in the fight. But yes,
• 49:42
  Speaker 3: I like Bashie here. It's just the same thing on
• 49:45
  Speaker 3: the meta side, there's so many favorites that I like,
• 49:48
  Speaker 3: you just gotta throw Bashi in there with them all.
• 49:49
  Speaker 3: Where I like Smith more, I plan on having more Smith.
• 49:55
  Speaker 3: But if I got fifty percent Bashie, I'm cool with that.
• 49:58
  Speaker 2: If I had seventy five percent and Bashie, I'm cool
• 50:01
  Speaker 2: if it like because if he wins, I think the
• 50:03
  Speaker 2: ceiling's so high. And I'm also I'm playing less teams
• 50:06
  Speaker 2: like I'm fine being taking more stands.
• 50:09
  Speaker 1: Again, I have six phase right now.
• 50:10
  Speaker 2: If I had eight at the end of the day
• 50:11
  Speaker 2: in twenty entry, i'd be fine, there's fourteen fights, Like,
• 50:14
  Speaker 2: I want to make my path more narrow.
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: Three of my fades.
• 50:17
  Speaker 2: Are above nine K, so I can load up more
• 50:20
  Speaker 2: in the Bassies of the world, dismiss the world. Plug
• 50:22
  Speaker 2: in a lineup, plug climb in at ninety eight hundred drop,
• 50:25
  Speaker 2: climb down to Bashie lead nine hundred bucks. I like
• 50:29
  Speaker 2: Bashie more straight up than I like climb for the upside.
• 50:31
  Speaker 2: So there's just a lot of ways you can go
• 50:33
  Speaker 2: with Bassie lineups. Last thing I'll mention, I have a
• 50:36
  Speaker 2: little more interest in se Rod in DFS than you.
• 50:39
  Speaker 2: First of all, that just the leverage. I think Bashie
• 50:42
  Speaker 2: will be one of the highest zwned fighters on the
• 50:43
  Speaker 2: card if sea Rod wins, not only does a little
• 50:47
  Speaker 2: less than half of the field die with Bashie, you
• 50:50
  Speaker 2: get that leverage, but also I think Bashie will be
• 50:52
  Speaker 2: shooting for a lot of takedowns, which means if sea
• 50:55
  Speaker 2: Rod wins, does he have a lot of reversals? Does
• 50:58
  Speaker 2: he like end up on top of himself? Does he
• 51:01
  Speaker 2: knock out Bashie? Does like what happens for him to win?
• 51:04
  Speaker 2: At Bashie shooting all these takedowns reversals top control, maybe
• 51:08
  Speaker 2: his own takedowns just random stuff. I think he can
• 51:11
  Speaker 2: gain points in a high paced fight with the other guy.
• 51:13
  Speaker 2: Shooting a lot is the only reason I'm thinking I
• 51:16
  Speaker 2: will be playing some sea rot. But I'm definitely on
• 51:18
  Speaker 2: the Bashie side, and I'll have a lot of Bashie
• 51:21
  Speaker 2: for sure.
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: Spends a lot of time on that one.
• 51:23
  Speaker 2: But I think it's one of the most interesting fights
• 51:26
  Speaker 2: on the card in terms of real life and DFS.
• 51:29
  Speaker 2: Going to a fight that and I love it. I
• 51:31
  Speaker 2: see Big Marley messing with some ownership. Always love doing
• 51:34
  Speaker 2: the show, and yeah, you tighten the stuff up how
• 51:37
  Speaker 2: you see it be, but always love that you get
• 51:39
  Speaker 2: it up pre show and helped me out as well.
• 51:41
  Speaker 2: Three fights left on the card. Four fights left, Actually
• 51:44
  Speaker 2: not much interest. Excuse me, still getting over the sickness.
• 51:50
  Speaker 2: Not much interest in this one for DFS. Copy lov
• 51:53
  Speaker 2: mitainus two fifteen Chris Curtis plus one eighty five plus
• 51:56
  Speaker 2: one thirty five for this fight to finish, plus two
• 51:59
  Speaker 2: to fifty five Copy Love plus three fifty for Curtis.
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: I'll keep it nice and sweet. Copy Love is a
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: fade for me.
• 52:05
  Speaker 2: If I need one hundred and ten plus, I think
• 52:07
  Speaker 2: that means Copulave would need a first round knockout. He
• 52:10
  Speaker 2: has plus seven hundred to win in round one. Chris
• 52:13
  Speaker 2: Curtis has never been knocked out. He's about as durable
• 52:16
  Speaker 2: as it gets. So for that reason, I'm not going
• 52:19
  Speaker 2: to copy Love. I do like you see Cocholof he
• 52:21
  Speaker 2: has some wrestling one point one to two. Thing is
• 52:24
  Speaker 2: Chris Curtis doesn't get taken down, so I do not
• 52:27
  Speaker 2: see coch Love having any wrestling upside. Curtis is more
• 52:31
  Speaker 2: of just very few dogs win. Curtis gets you seventy
• 52:35
  Speaker 2: six and he's on the winner because of pricing that way.
• 52:38
  Speaker 2: I don't like his upside compared to some of these dogs,
• 52:40
  Speaker 2: but he's a live dog. He's plus one eighty five.
• 52:44
  Speaker 2: That's really all I got. Curtis is fine for moneyline
• 52:48
  Speaker 2: value upside. I don't love this fight. How do you
• 52:50
  Speaker 2: see it?
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: Yeah?
• 52:54
  Speaker 3: Neat Yeah, I don't care for this fight. I think
• 52:58
  Speaker 3: it's gonna be a striking man. I'd be surprised if
• 53:02
  Speaker 3: either one of these guys landed one takedown. To be
• 53:04
  Speaker 3: honest with you, copy Love is just the better overall
• 53:09
  Speaker 3: striker at Raine. She's gonna need to keep it at
• 53:12
  Speaker 3: Rain though, because it's gonna be his kicks versus Curtis's punches.
• 53:16
  Speaker 3: But I think if Curtis can make this more of
• 53:18
  Speaker 3: just a brawl, just push the pace, get on the
• 53:22
  Speaker 3: inside and double or triple him up on volume, and
• 53:26
  Speaker 3: I think he can win this fight. And if anyone
• 53:28
  Speaker 3: is gonna wrestle in this fight, I think it will
• 53:30
  Speaker 3: actually be Curtis. So Curtis is my preferred play. I
• 53:34
  Speaker 3: probably will fade copy Love as well. With one fifty,
• 53:36
  Speaker 3: i'd keep him in there, and if I got zero,
• 53:39
  Speaker 3: I'd be fine with it, but I'll keep him in
• 53:41
  Speaker 3: my pool with one fifty. I'll x him out with
• 53:44
  Speaker 3: twenty or less, and then Curtis is an underdog I'm
• 53:47
  Speaker 3: picking to win, so that'll probably naturally put me overweight,
• 53:51
  Speaker 3: but I have it as a two star for a reason.
• 53:53
  Speaker 3: I really don't like Curtis either. Even if he wins,
• 53:55
  Speaker 3: I could see him scoring less than ten x here,
• 53:57
  Speaker 3: so it's just he's cheap. I'm picking them to win,
• 54:02
  Speaker 3: but you're not gonna check.
• 54:05
  Speaker 1: Me for that much.
• 54:06
  Speaker 2: Yeah, you see it the same as me, like a
• 54:08
  Speaker 2: live dog, but not much upside. If very few dogs win,
• 54:11
  Speaker 2: he can get there. If I mean, what did you
• 54:13
  Speaker 2: win an eight and nine points from one of your
• 54:15
  Speaker 2: dogs that one day on the optimal.
• 54:17
  Speaker 3: Martie and Andrew is like that something bad, something that
• 54:21
  Speaker 3: was thirteen.
• 54:22
  Speaker 2: I mean that's the reason though for Chris Curtis not
• 54:25
  Speaker 2: that thirteen is enough by any means on this car,
• 54:27
  Speaker 2: but that's seventy two is enough for seventy one hundred,
• 54:30
  Speaker 2: But don't love the upside compared to some of the
• 54:32
  Speaker 2: other cheaper dogs. Three fights left this one a pretty
• 54:36
  Speaker 2: interesting one for DFS. One of the most likely to
• 54:38
  Speaker 2: finish on the car. Caesar made a minus two to
• 54:41
  Speaker 2: fifty one. Abdul Razak Al hasan plus two to eleven
• 54:45
  Speaker 2: minus two hundred for this fight to finish, I'll made
• 54:48
  Speaker 2: a plus one oh five inside the distance al Hassan
• 54:51
  Speaker 2: plus two ninety.
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: Take this one away. What are you doing in DFS?
• 54:55
  Speaker 3: Uh? Yeah, you can lump al Hassan in there with
• 54:57
  Speaker 3: seleki E or do Dakova. If Alison wins, it's it's
• 55:01
  Speaker 3: gonna be a first round knockout. He's just gonna take
• 55:04
  Speaker 3: Almeida's head off. If this is a phone booth fight,
• 55:08
  Speaker 3: Alison is a better striker in this matchup, but it's
• 55:12
  Speaker 3: not Almeida has a lot more room to work with,
• 55:14
  Speaker 3: so he's just gonna be so much better than Alison
• 55:16
  Speaker 3: in the striking department. And I also think Alison is
• 55:19
  Speaker 3: this is actually one matchup where he's got the wrestling
• 55:22
  Speaker 3: slash judo edge in this fight. But if he comes
• 55:26
  Speaker 3: in and he wins the first round with wrestling, I
• 55:29
  Speaker 3: think he slows down after that. Almeida wins the second
• 55:31
  Speaker 3: and thirty the way is how I see it going down.
• 55:33
  Speaker 3: But Almeida could also knock him out in the first round.
• 55:37
  Speaker 3: So give me Almeida by knockout. I don't know what
• 55:39
  Speaker 3: round it comes in, but it's gonna it's a knockout
• 55:43
  Speaker 3: or bus for Almeida because he's not gonna be landing takedowns.
• 55:46
  Speaker 3: He's not gonna be super high volume. So and if
• 55:49
  Speaker 3: he loses the first round with Alison wrestling, then he's
• 55:51
  Speaker 3: probably off the optimal lineup. So I'm not gonna get
• 55:55
  Speaker 3: a whole lot of Alison, I mean, not a whole
• 55:58
  Speaker 3: lot of Almeida on DraftKings. I'm fine with what I
• 56:01
  Speaker 3: can get, I guess, but there's just people like there's
• 56:03
  Speaker 3: Bashi for cheaper, there's yeah, so I don't. I don't
• 56:09
  Speaker 3: even know that I need to get tal Mada, but
• 56:12
  Speaker 3: with one fifty, I definitely won't be exing them out.
• 56:15
  Speaker 3: And then Alissan, maybe I like him more than the
• 56:17
  Speaker 3: other three down there, but it's really just the same
• 56:20
  Speaker 3: thing for all of them. It's like a first round
• 56:22
  Speaker 3: win or lose for Alissan, Seleki, Andyhore. I see it
• 56:30
  Speaker 3: being the same for all three of them. And then
• 56:32
  Speaker 3: due to Covia, she's just gonna have to wrestle keep
• 56:34
  Speaker 3: top control for two plus rounds. She doesn't really have
• 56:37
  Speaker 3: that same upside, but she's the cheapest on the card,
• 56:41
  Speaker 3: so it's like, lump them all in there, give me
• 56:44
  Speaker 3: ten percent or less, but I better love the rest
• 56:48
  Speaker 3: of my lineup for for that to be the case.
• 56:50
  Speaker 2: Yeah, because I'm not playing the Seleties, the dude to
• 56:53
  Speaker 2: covid Is of the world. I'm gonna be overweight on Alissan.
• 56:55
  Speaker 2: He was plus two to fifty earlier this week that
• 56:58
  Speaker 2: I said this, said plus two thirty five.
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: Now he's plus two to eleven. Some money's came back
• 57:02
  Speaker 1: on him. Almeida's gonna get some.
• 57:04
  Speaker 2: Ownerships, you get a little leverage, but it's mainly he's
• 57:07
  Speaker 2: just a grown ass man. If he wins, I mean,
• 57:09
  Speaker 2: it could be a knockout at any single time, and
• 57:11
  Speaker 2: he completely breaks the slates with maybe some wrestling upside.
• 57:15
  Speaker 2: The problem is if this fight is at distance, Almeida
• 57:18
  Speaker 2: is just gonna pick him apart. The former kickbox are
• 57:20
  Speaker 2: way more technical. Alosaian's gotta get on the inside, make
• 57:23
  Speaker 2: it dirty, choose his power there. But I mean, we're
• 57:28
  Speaker 2: talking what twenty four hundred dollars price difference, Like we
• 57:31
  Speaker 2: play a salary based game. I don't know how much
• 57:33
  Speaker 2: Ameida I'm gonna be able to get because Jacobe Smith's
• 57:36
  Speaker 2: one hundred more, who I like a lot, but Bashi
• 57:40
  Speaker 2: Medicch like I would be fine dropping or building a
• 57:44
  Speaker 2: team with Almeida dropping him down a meticch. I'm leaving
• 57:46
  Speaker 2: six hundred and just going about that. Like both of
• 57:50
  Speaker 2: the inside the distance props are pretty much the same.
• 57:52
  Speaker 2: Metas is actually better minus one oh five Almeida's plus
• 57:55
  Speaker 2: one oh five. Almeida in round one is plus three
• 57:58
  Speaker 2: seventy five. I don't love Almeida. The more more I'm
• 58:02
  Speaker 2: talking about, I don't. I don't love him too too much.
• 58:04
  Speaker 2: Like I think I'm gonna load up Bashi in the
• 58:06
  Speaker 2: Smith's of the World. I have him overweight for right now.
• 58:09
  Speaker 2: Alisne's my preferred play though, like Almada's powerful, He's a
• 58:13
  Speaker 2: great kickboxer. He can definitely break Ali said if he
• 58:16
  Speaker 2: knocks him out, though I'm guessing it's more in realms
• 58:18
  Speaker 2: two or three unless you just hit some with a
• 58:21
  Speaker 2: nice nasty body shot or something. They don't even get
• 58:23
  Speaker 2: the knockdowns half the time for that. So give me
• 58:26
  Speaker 2: ali side is my preferred play.
• 58:28
  Speaker 3: Yeah, maybe, yeah, I don't hate that.
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: I like it.
• 58:30
  Speaker 2: Two fights left interesting interesting comain events, I mean thirty
• 58:34
  Speaker 2: eight years old Ponds thirty seven, Carlson Harris and the Comaine.
• 58:38
  Speaker 1: Interesting choice.
• 58:39
  Speaker 2: But first thing that sends out to me in this
• 58:41
  Speaker 2: one eighty two under Carlson Harris, the underdog taking on
• 58:45
  Speaker 2: a K Ponds. That does mean the line did flip.
• 58:48
  Speaker 2: Carlson Harris open minus one fifty five, Pons plus one
• 58:52
  Speaker 2: thirty five the line almost completely flipp Now Ponds is
• 58:55
  Speaker 2: a minus one thirty five favorite, Carlson Harris a plus
• 58:58
  Speaker 2: one fifteen dog. What I do like to see though,
• 59:02
  Speaker 2: this fight open minus one thirty to finish now minus
• 59:05
  Speaker 2: one fifty five. So I do like to see that
• 59:08
  Speaker 2: both Ponds and Harris is inside the distance prop It's
• 59:11
  Speaker 2: gone the right way. Ponds open plus two to fifteen
• 59:14
  Speaker 2: now plus one ninety, Harris plus two to twenty five
• 59:17
  Speaker 2: now plus two hundred. I didn't mention only three fights
• 59:21
  Speaker 2: in the mid tier. That is the comain the main
• 59:23
  Speaker 2: events mid tier eighty five to seventy seven. We have it,
• 59:26
  Speaker 2: and then Voice is Ogden, which I did not like
• 59:29
  Speaker 2: at all. Man, I like this fight even a little
• 59:32
  Speaker 2: more than I initially thought. Seeing minus one thirty now
• 59:34
  Speaker 2: to minus one fifty five, it's definitely appealing. You can
• 59:39
  Speaker 2: leave money easier when you play them. This would make
• 59:42
  Speaker 2: me for sure not lock the main event if I
• 59:45
  Speaker 2: was playing like seventy five plus teams, because I'm playing
• 59:48
  Speaker 2: twenty unless like I'm going to lock the main event.
• 59:50
  Speaker 2: But you can definitely go this fight main event fights
• 59:55
  Speaker 2: four other spots after that, leave a little salary, et cetera.
• 59:58
  Speaker 2: So yeah, talk to me minus one fifty five. I
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 2: like the line movement on the under.
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't really, I'm I'm not gonna be heavy
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 3: on this fight. I don't even know. I think I
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 3: probably changed it to a two star already, but Yeah,
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 3: this is a fight I'm looking to avoid because I
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 3: really don't want to play Ponzi because he's knocked at
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 3: our bust just to have any chance at a high score.
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 3: He's what was he now? Thirty eight years? These last
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 3: eight fighters and step in the octagon are freaking all
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 3: thirty one.
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 1: Crazy, like what do they do? Like?
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 2: It was really interesting when I was going through this too,
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 2: I was like, what does the UFC really doing? They're
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 2: all focused on UFC three eleven next week, but yeah,
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 2: the same.
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 3: This is just to fight out I want to get
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 3: rid of and hope that it's a boring decision. Ponzie,
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 3: I do think is a better striker, but Harris the
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 3: better grappler. I think Harris has more ways to hit
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 3: one hundred points though, and now with the line moving
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 3: this way, I think Pons and Ubia should be higher owned.
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 3: Uh so it's Harris are passed for me. I'm not
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 3: gonna get any Pons Andibbio probably. That's what I said
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 3: on his last fight too, and I was worried about it.
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 3: It worked out. I'm just gonna run it back and
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 3: I really don't want much Harris either. But with the
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 3: line going the other way. His ownership coming down. That
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 3: does make me want a little bit of them. So
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 3: this is a two star for me. I'm definitely fine
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 3: if I get zero percent of it at all, but
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 3: it is right there in the mid range. I feel
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 3: like it's gonna it's gonna fit. I just don't want
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 3: any Pons and Nibbio, so give me, give me Harris.
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 3: And I was just hoping that he gets into the
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 3: ground or knocks Ponsanubio out. He knocked it out, I
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 3: think he could do it.
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 2: Yeah, no, yeah, I mean both guys. That's the reason
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 2: I'm playing it four. So I was gonna ask you
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 2: before I said it. But Ponds at four of his
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 2: eight losses have come by knockout. Three or six of
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 2: Harris's knock or losses have my knockout. Worried about both
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 2: their chins part of the reason I think the under
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 2: is getting hit. I like it in DFS. Would you
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 2: be surprised if I told you Harris has a better
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 2: knockout prop than a submission prop.
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean not surprised, I guess, but yeah, I
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 3: would have thought the other way.
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 1: Roun I did too.
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 2: And now right now it's plus four twenty five KO
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 2: plus four fifty sub, so like hardly anything but opening
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 2: Harris opened plus three fifty by Ko, now plus four
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 2: twenty five by some he opened plus eight fifty.
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 1: Now he's plus four fifty.
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 2: A lot of money came in the sub, and naturally,
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 2: in my mind it was like, I think Pons is
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 2: the better striker. Harris is very tricky when it does
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 2: hit the mat. I just naturally thought hit by sub
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 2: made more sense. But Pons's chin again knocked out four
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 2: of eight times three or six for Harris, like this
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 2: fight ending my knockout. The books do give a good
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 2: amount of possibility too, so I'm gonna play both. I'd
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 2: be like your thoughts on Harrit's being lower owned as
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 2: the dollar for two hundred more. But again i will
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 2: say people are getting sharp with game theory stuff, like
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 2: sometimes those odds or those ownerships are a lot closer
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 2: than I sometimes expect.
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 1: So I'm gonna play this fight more than you. I
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 1: do know that.
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 2: Preferred time I said was Harris, But I'd be fine
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 2: if I to be honest as like thirty twenty either
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 2: side at the end of the day. Main events, I
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 2: big Marley definitely excited for this one again last time.
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 2: Want to appreciate and thank everybody out there and now
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 2: many watch on Playback Monster Monster Weekend, NFL College Football MMA.
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 2: So much money to be made and look at that
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 2: college football MMA. NFL, NBA still goes on, NHL goes
• 1:03:39
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• 1:03:42
  Speaker 2: dot com. You want the best deal we have. PGA
• 1:03:46
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• 1:03:55
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• 1:03:58
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• 1:04:02
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• 1:04:05
  Speaker 2: had to overship a nation dot com like subscribe helps
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 2: us out. A ton man the bed time eighty five
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 2: hundred amanded. Heboss taking on McKenzie Dern minus one eighty nine.
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 2: He Boss plus one sixty four for Dern plus one
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 2: fifty five for this fight to finish.
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 1: He Boss plus three seventy.
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 2: Inside of this is McKenzie Dern plus two ninety a
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 2: rematch from twenty nineteen. That means absolutely nothing for me,
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 2: but I know people will mention it, so I will
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 2: as well.
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna throw it to you right away.
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 2: Eight hundred dollars pricing difference as you see on this
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 2: was minus two hundred early in the week, now minus
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 2: one eighty nine, so little little money buy back on
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 2: the DRN side, and the underdog in Dern more likely
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 2: to finish than he Boss plus two ninety versus plus
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 2: three seventy.
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 1: Take this one away.
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 3: Heah rematch from twenty nineteen where Rebust just won a
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 3: clear decision, and I really don't know that a ton
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 3: has changed since then. Both of them are good grapplers.
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 3: Durn's more dangerous in my opinion, She's probably one of
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 3: the most dangerous we've seen in WMMA, at least in
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 3: the UFC, But Rebus is the better striker. Durn's striking
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 3: has improved. I'd say the biggest improvement total since their
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 3: last fight on either side would be durn striking, and
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 3: Rebus has a portion. Durn could knock her out just
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 3: because she throws heat. Durren has a week chan two.
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 3: ReBs could knock her out, So I don't really know
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 3: how this is gonna play out, but I do think
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 3: Ribas has more ways to win. I like Rebas to win.
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 3: She scored seventy five in that last fight. Now she
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 3: has two more rounds to work with. Also, seventy five
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 3: is the least she's ever scored in a win, so
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 3: at eighty five hundred, i'd imagine she's scored ninety or
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 3: more ninety. I don't really I don't want to lie
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 3: into my lineups, but I'm fade.
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 1: I'm full fade.
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 2: If I knew ninety the problems, I just don't fait
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 2: because of ownership, we have this?
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 1: Can we have this fight?
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 2: Eighty five percent cumuli of ownership on a fourteen fight card,
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 2: I would just take my chances.
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 1: Yeah, problem is a you never know what you're.
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 2: Gonna get, and I think more than likely it's around
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 2: one hundred mark, which one hundred and.
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 1: Ninety are a lot different.
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 2: But yeah, you if I could see the future and
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 2: I got ninety, I would definitely play one hundred and
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 2: fifty teams and I would get absolutely none, just because
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 2: I know i'd be I'd be playing against a lot
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 2: less people if it did work.
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 1: But yeah, unfortunately it's not that easy.
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 3: I do think nineties super and play for her in
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 3: a win too, which is why I'm not going to
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 3: make a rule. But I do want this in most
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 3: of my lineup, so like probably eighty five plus percent
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 3: of my lineups. And the way I see me going
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 3: about it is, if I'm making a handbuild lineup, my
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 3: first pick in the lineup is going to be Rebus.
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 3: I'll start building from there, and if I need to,
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 3: I'll drop down to Dern if I need some salary.
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 3: And that's how I plan on doing almost every one
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 3: of my hand bills, and then we'll see how much
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 3: I can get of each one of them. And then
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 3: with one hundred and fifty, I'm gonna price Ribus up there,
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 3: like not as much as Bashi, but like close up there,
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 3: and then i'll have Durn priced more than everybody priced
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 3: below Ribus, so I'll just naturally end up with more
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 3: of both of them. And if I get fifty Durn
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 3: and thirty percent Rebus, I'd be okay with it. If
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 3: I got fifty percent Ribs thirty percent Durned, I'd be
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 3: okay with it. So don't really care how the fight
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 3: plays out, hoping that I could just have the nuts
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 3: either way, but give me ribus to win.
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 1: Yeah, wouldn't it be nice to have them outs either either.
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 1: I'll come that'd be pretty cool.
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 2: I will be making a role for twenty and below,
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 2: not for the fact that I don't think like I
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 2: could see it not being on the winner.
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 1: But if i'm I'm.
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 2: Trying to make my path as narrow as possible with
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 2: so many fights, I think there's enough ways I can
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 2: get different by doing that.
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 1: I think both of the he Boss.
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 2: And Dirt ownership will be similar, and I'm I just
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 2: don't want more than sixty five percent on either side
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 2: because I know I want a decent amount of both.
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 2: Sixty five durn thirty five he bos sure, sixty five
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 2: key Boss thirty five durn sure. I just know I
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 2: don't want eighty twenty because I don't really have a
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 2: strong enough lee that way, and it gets you a
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 2: different roster construction ways.
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 1: What would you said, hebos is takedown my net. She
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 1: got two in the first flight for one and a
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 1: half yeh.
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 2: She got two in the first fight yep, for one
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 2: and a half minutes of control time, two for three.
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 1: I want to say she went.
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I'd say one and a half or two and
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 3: a half.
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 2: Again, obviously that first fight was ten or fifteen minutes.
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 2: This one twenty five minutes. Yeah, she outstruck her seventy
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 2: four to twenty. She went two for two on takedowns
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 2: a minute forty six seconds of control time, one in each,
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 2: one in the first round, one in the second round.
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 1: Two and a half.
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 3: You said, uh, one and a half, four and a half. Honestly,
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 3: I'd probably do one and a half.
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 1: Yeah, do they have make sense? I don't know. I
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 1: think I'm usually when I do.
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 2: Look, it's an underdog two and a half, two and
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 2: a half, it is.
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's pretty.
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 2: She gets three takedown I mean that's why I'm also
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 2: going all it like three takedowns. I feel very good
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 2: about here scoring about one hundred. It's a fight I'm
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 2: gonna be all in on though for twenty teams or less.
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 2: If I was playing seventy plus, I probably would not
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 2: make that rule. I would sell have a ton of
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 2: this fight, no doubt about it though. Any final thoughts,
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 2: Big Marley fourteen fights, So happy to be back man,
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 2: and next week, uh oh, big boy card. I can't
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 2: wait for that one. But hey, fourteen fights for dfs.
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 2: This is a phenomenal car. Just wish prize pools were
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 2: a little bigger, but hey, NFL always takes center stage.
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 1: I ain't complaining at all. I love NFL too.
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 3: Hell yeah, man, NFL and UFC on the same night,
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 3: my two favorite sports. Can't complain there. Hopefully this is
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 3: a good bank roll builder for that pay per view.
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 3: Good luck to you title, good luck to everybody listening.
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 3: Let's ship it.
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 2: Appreciate everyone out there, good luck all the content, and
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 2: again we'll be up tomorrow. Ship nation dot com. Like bun, subscribe,
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 2: but on the way out helps the time. Be safe
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 2: out there, Big Maley. Let's make some cheese this week
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 2: for Big Marley.
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 1: Good luck
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 2: Steps