Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 9 - 3/26/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 9 - 3/26/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:19
Hello and welcome to episode nine of the All Systems Go
0:24
Sports Betting podcast Powered by Rhythm.
0:28
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on?
0:33
Everyone? Happy Tuesday?
0:35
Another day here in the arena, guys.
0:37
One day closer to Opening Day. Major League Baseball.
0:40
That's right. I'm starting to get excited.
0:42
I tell you what, guys. Baseball was my first love, my
0:44
first true passion. Growing up as a Red Sox fan,
0:47
idolizing Nomar Garcia Para and Pedro Martinez and MO Von and
0:51
hoping that Rodger Clemens wouldn't leave the Red Sox.
0:53
When I was, I want to say I don't even know.
0:55
I was like, you know, six years old.
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Seven years old actually wrote a letter to Rodger Clemens saying
0:59
don't leave. Then he took steroids and turned
1:02
his career around. I remember Dan Duquette said he
1:03
was in the twilight of of his career.
1:05
So anyway, I'm a big Red Sox fan.
1:08
I'm down on my team right now because the ownership won't
1:10
spend money. But I am very excited for
1:12
opening day of MLB starting on Thursday.
1:15
So now only two days away. Remember I mentioned this
1:17
yesterday, but we will have win total Wednesday.
1:19
So I actually have been looking at quite a few win totals here
1:22
as well as some divisional odds. I got a new batch of data from
1:26
Ben MGM for my buddy John Ewing looking at bets and dollars to
1:29
win for division champion. So I actually have two
1:32
divisional bets, I have some win totals, I have some early awards
1:35
taking a shot on those. So get ready.
1:37
If you are a baseball seam, head a fan here of MLB betting and
1:41
grinding each day. And MLB to me is just so kind of
1:44
unique because it's such a long season, so many games every
1:47
single day. But therefore you have a lot of
1:49
opportunities to pick your spots and make some money.
1:51
So the true OG grinders get ready.
1:53
Baseball is back, which is music to our ears.
1:55
So I'll talk a lot of baseball for tomorrow.
1:58
Looking toward today, guys, I have a six pack of sweats for
2:00
you. I have one college basketball
2:02
bet. I have two in the NBA.
2:04
Also have three NHL bets, big night on the ice, including one
2:07
player prop because I want to incorporate some shots on goal
2:10
props. And there's one player in
2:11
particular who has a really good matchup and he's been flying
2:14
over this total recently. So I'm going to go over 2 1/2
2:16
shots for this particular player.
2:18
I also want to mention a little bit of the NFL draft because we
2:21
had some movement and changes here.
2:23
I tweeted out about a week ago some of the odds not only to go
2:26
you know 1-2 and three. We all know it's going to be
2:27
Caleb Williams number one. Caleb Williams to go number one
2:30
at this point is -4000. So that's happening.
2:33
But there's been movement on the number two pick.
2:35
There's also been movement on a plot.
2:36
That prop that we targeted the over under 4 1/2 quarterbacks.
2:40
Hopefully you listened. We talked about on the pod last
2:42
week because there's been movement in our direction and
2:44
then also there's another prop that which have my eye on which
2:46
I'm not betting yet but it's trending in a direction with
2:49
some plus money that may be worth monitoring here.
2:51
So a lot to get to on today's pod.
2:53
Now looking back toward yesterday guys nothing went our
2:56
way. O and 3 -, 3 units.
2:58
The Montana, Arkansas State over over 141 1/2 sailed under the
3:03
biggest goal tonight. Saint Louis total over six.
3:05
It was a 2 to one game. Then the King 76ers over 222
3:08
stayed under. So pretty much everything that
3:10
went wrong and didn't go our way ended up happening.
3:13
So it was a tough day yesterday. But of course, as always, you
3:16
grind, you stick with it, you don't get down on yourself.
3:19
You have consistent discipline bankroll management bet to risk
3:22
first bet to win always risking 1 unit.
3:24
We're going to turn around and have a winning day here today.
3:26
So as I mentioned a lot to get to including a big six pack
3:29
college hoops NBANHL. We're going to talk about it all
3:32
on today's 9th edition of the all Systems Go sports betting
3:35
podcast powered by Rhythm. So before we dive in our sweats
3:38
here for today, guys, just want to mention a little bit of NFL
3:41
draft talk because I believe the draft is the 27th, so we're
3:45
almost exactly one month away. When is it the 28th?
3:48
I know it's coming up. Just double check this here, put
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in the old Google machine. When is the NFL draft?
3:54
It is the 25th. Yeah, the 25th actually.
3:59
So the 25th of April, which is now it's a Thursday.
4:02
I knew it was a Thursday, but it's now less than a full month
4:04
away. So couple updates here because
4:07
you know, to me, I love betting drafts because if you kind of
4:10
look at the the the market all year long and you especially pay
4:14
attention to how the market's moving, what you're hearing in
4:17
terms of mock drafts and then looking at, you know, reading
4:20
the tea leaves of where kind of different, you know, different
4:23
players are arising or falling. These are basically information
4:26
based bets. So if you do your homework, you
4:27
can again build your bankroll and make some money off of the
4:30
draft, whether it's NFL draft, NBA draft, NHL draft.
4:33
Now of course, you know this is always the the caution sign here
4:37
when it comes to, you know, putting too much stock into
4:39
media experts. I don't have to, I don't want to
4:41
go too far into the past, but I still have PTSD when Woj told me
4:45
Jabari Smith was going #1 and then he didn't.
4:47
And then big Steam game day came in on Paolo Bancaro.
4:50
So again, you can be, you know, can be tripped up here by by
4:54
media reports. But to me, if you follow the
4:56
trend lines, basically of which direction, you know players are
4:59
leaning and you look at the mock drafts from people who know what
5:01
they're doing, like a Mel Kiper, that's where you can take
5:04
advantage. So I just want to give you an
5:05
update here because again, now we're less than a full month
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away in terms of the draft. So some updates here.
5:11
I mentioned it first, not really an update.
5:13
Caleb Williams is going one, he's -4000.
5:15
But big movement here when it comes to who will be going
5:20
number two overall. So when I tweeted this out about
5:22
a week ago for my Twitter account at Josh under score
5:25
Insights, we had Jayden Daniels as the favorite.
5:27
I believe he was -170 -, 180 to go second overall.
5:30
Well, he's down to -130. And guess who's moving?
5:33
It's not Drake May, it's JJ McCarthy.
5:36
So maybe it's a smokescreen. But you did hear Harbaugh say
5:39
he's the best quarterback in the draft.
5:41
Obviously you're biased. He's your quarterback.
5:43
Who won you the national title? But you're also seeing the
5:46
betting market move in favor of JJ McCarthy, JJ McCarthy.
5:49
There's a a tweet that came out yesterday from, I think, NFL
5:52
Network saying they're hearing a lot of buzz of McCarthy going as
5:55
high as #2. So if that were to happen, you
5:58
know, whether Washington takes him or another team, you know,
6:00
like maybe Minnesota trades up and takes him, we have seen
6:02
movement toward JJ McCarthy #2. Now he was plus 2800 to go
6:07
second overall week ago. He's down to plus 250.
6:10
So on the one hand you're like, hey that's great movement toward
6:12
McCarthy. I'll look at it and say you know
6:15
on the one hand, yes, you're still getting plus money on
6:17
McCarthy, but he was 28 to one. Now he's 250 again, you've
6:20
missed the boat on that. A lot of the value is now gone.
6:22
So that's just something to monitor.
6:24
Daniel's may McCarthy, Daniel's is still the favorite.
6:27
Drake Mays plus 200, McCarthy plus 250.
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Let's keep our eye on the number two pick.
6:31
That's one big update that I wanted to mention.
6:34
Now the other updates that I want to hit on in particular was
6:37
the over under draft position or position totals.
6:40
Basically this is the way you can kind of look for bettable
6:42
numbers. Like I'll give you an example,
6:44
running back selected in the first round, it's a half running
6:47
back. You know -2000 to the unders
6:49
they're expecting no running back selected.
6:51
You can take a running back first round plus 1000, pretty
6:54
good payout, but they're saying it's probably not going to
6:56
happen. It's also not very bettable
6:58
based on that current number. I'll give you another angle, one
7:02
or another angle here in terms of one that's keeping kind of
7:06
interest. My interest here quarterbacks.
7:08
Now, how many quarterbacks will be selected in round one?
7:10
When I tweeted this out a week ago, it was 4 1/2 and when I
7:14
tweeted it, I said, hey, you know, we're going to get the
7:16
guys we expect Caleb Williams, obviously looking at May
7:21
McCarthy as well as Daniels. And then to cash that prop,
7:24
you're going to need either Pennix Junior or Bonex.
7:26
Well, when I mentioned that about a week ago, the over 4 1/2
7:29
quarterbacks in round one was -130 to the over, Well, who bet
7:32
the over 'cause now it's -230. So again, it's not very bettable
7:36
anymore, but that just goes to show you that we did our
7:39
homework a week ago and now we're feeling good about that
7:40
prop because we were kind of diagnosing and looking at mock
7:43
jobs and saying, hey, there's a lot of mock jobs that have 5 Q
7:46
BS going. So over 4, 1/2, -, 130.
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I hit that last week. Hopefully you guys did too.
7:50
That's a great update here today that the over 4 1/2 is now -230.
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The other one that caught my eye was total cornerbacks corners
7:59
selected in round 1/5 and 1/2. The under was -200 last week.
8:03
Now it's 5 1/2 under -225. So a little movement there
8:07
toward that under 225 is kind of a high number.
8:10
So again, I'm not, I'm not racing to go bet that right now,
8:12
but we're trying to look at trend lines, which direction
8:15
these position totals are moving.
8:16
But here's one that I wanted to mention today, wide receivers,
8:20
how many wide receivers will be selected in the first round?
8:23
Now the over under is 6 1/2. That's a pretty lofty number
8:26
here. You're hearing a lot of buzzer.
8:27
If you haven't heard, you know this is one of the best wide
8:29
receiver classes in quite a while.
8:31
I think there's 11. I've been hearing a trend number
8:34
of like 1011 wide receivers that could go on the 1st 2 rounds for
8:37
this prop. Obviously you're going to need 7
8:39
to go over. You're going to need 6 to go
8:40
under. Now I think we can pretty much
8:43
check off 5 or probably 4 guaranteed here.
8:46
Obviously, Marvin Harrison, junior neighbors Adonze and
8:50
Brian Thomas, Junior, also from LSU.
8:52
So there's four. So if you want to go over, you
8:54
know you're going to need three more.
8:56
So add and I Mitchell, Ladd Mcconkey, Xavier Worthy, Keon
8:59
Coleman's also in that conversation.
9:00
He went to Florida State, but as now it looks like it's going to
9:02
be under which it's still probably going to be under, but
9:05
you have seen a little bit of juice movement here trending
9:07
back toward the over. So basically I'm looking at is
9:10
there an opportunity to take some plus money in the over 6
9:13
1/2. Now I didn't bet it yet, but I
9:14
noticed that last week over 6 1/2 wide receivers was plus 190,
9:19
now over 6 1/2 receivers is plus 140.
9:22
So the payouts getting shorter or smaller.
9:25
Therefore, you know why is it getting shorter or smaller
9:27
because maybe it's becoming more likely that it may happen.
9:30
So when I'm looking at props and in particular draft bets, you
9:34
know, usually I'm looking at you know, minus numbers because
9:36
obviously the public wants to bet plus numbers.
9:38
That kind of parlay mentality to turn a little bit into a bit
9:41
into a lot of money. Like example you bet can there
9:43
be 1 running back selected in round one.
9:45
If that happens plus 1000, that's a good payout but -2000
9:48
under thinking that's probably not going to happen.
9:50
So I lean on, knows, I lean on unders.
9:52
But that's just one in terms of all these, you know, updated
9:56
positional totals where there's actually some money moving in on
9:59
the plus money side in favor of over 6 1/2 receivers.
10:03
Now it's still a minus number to go under.
10:05
That's just one that between last week and this week has
10:07
moved a little bit. So again, Harrison neighbors at
10:10
Denzai Thomas, you're going to get 4.
10:12
You need, you know, three more. Is it Mitchell Mcconkey worthy
10:15
Again, we're seeing some movement here toward the yes,
10:18
it's still a plus money unlikely to happen but it's moving in
10:21
that direction. So my whole point being is
10:23
between now and the draft, I want to like, I don't know, not
10:25
every day on the pod, but every other day, once a week.
10:28
Obviously we're going to pound this the last week of the draft.
10:29
That's when a lot of respected money comes in and a lot of, you
10:32
know, rumors start to become concrete and word leaks out and
10:35
you see a lot of movement because you know a lot of
10:37
positions are a lot of draft picks are kind of already in in
10:41
stone at that point. But I want to kind of just keep
10:43
an eye on the board because we're going to have a lot more
10:45
that pop up. Like still there's not a ton of
10:47
draft props out there. Like I'm waiting for the head to
10:49
heads. You know, first position
10:51
selected. Like when I'm looking at some
10:54
positional totals, a couple that caught my eye.
10:57
First running back selected, there's no clear cut favor.
11:00
Brooks is 225. Benson's 300, Jalen Wright 350,
11:04
Blake Corn +400. You know there's one of those
11:07
guys to go down to even money or flip to -120 that we can take
11:11
advantage of that. So that's one that I'm looking
11:12
at first. Running back, selected first
11:15
defensive player, Dallas Turner -220.
11:17
No one else is close. You know, do we play Turner
11:19
there First offensive lineman selected Joe Alt -300.
11:23
Little bit pricey, but again we have a few of these odds up.
11:25
We don't have them all up. They're going to start posting,
11:28
you know, closer and closer I would say with the last, you
11:30
know, 3-2 weeks before the draft.
11:32
So coming up here next couple weeks.
11:33
But anyway, I just thought that that was an easy way to start
11:36
the pod. Just giving you some updates on
11:38
the NFL draft. Any chance we can get seven wide
11:40
receivers with some plus money? That's what I'm looking at and
11:43
I'm very happy that that over 4 1/2 quarterback first round prop
11:47
is on the rise. So that's a good sign.
11:49
Anyway, guys, let's dive in our sweats here for today looking
11:51
for a bounce back day after not much went right.
11:54
I would say nothing went right last night.
11:56
I won three nights. Hey, you're going to strike out
11:58
sometimes. That's betting.
11:59
We're looking for a bounce back night here tonight.
12:01
So on a lead off with a big match up here tonight and a
12:05
chance to watch the big guy with the goggles.
12:08
If you haven't seen this guy, he doesn't look like an NBA player
12:10
at all. He probably looks like a guy the
12:12
nerd squad at Staples here that works on the computers.
12:14
I forgot his name. Alvari or Alvari.
12:17
I forgot his name anyway. The big guy with goggles, white
12:20
guy. He's pretty much, you know, kind
12:22
of taking over college basketball.
12:23
But anyway, he plays for Indiana State.
12:25
That's a long winded way of me saying I got a chance to sweat
12:27
this kid tonight. Cincinnati IN State.
12:30
This is your NIT quarterfinal. Cincinnati is 22 and 14.
12:34
They just beat Bradley 7457 in the second round of the NIT.
12:38
Indiana State, meanwhile, just missed out on the postseason,
12:40
the big dance, but they're 30 and six.
12:42
Just took down Minnesota 76 to 64 in the second round.
12:46
So what have you seen across the market here?
12:47
Well, I kind of gave it away, but I'm going Indiana State.
12:51
So Indiana State had a really sharp line with Indiana State
12:53
opened as a 2 1/2 point home favorite.
12:55
And a reminder this is a true home game.
12:57
NIT plays, true home games. Is that Indiana State's home
13:00
stadium? But Indiana State open -2 1/2.
13:03
When I woke up this morning they got to -3.
13:05
Now they're 3 1/2, -, 3 1/2 and they're even maybe moving up to
13:09
-4. So all one sided movement in
13:11
favor of Indiana State. No buyback whatsoever towards
13:14
Cincinnati. Now Indiana State, they are
13:17
getting 66% of spread bets, but 84% of spread dollars.
13:20
So great low bets, higher dollars, bet split.
13:23
We're getting a much larger share of dollars versus bets.
13:26
Tells us the bigger sharper wagers are in favor of Indiana
13:28
State, which jives with that line move toward the sycamores.
13:32
Indiana State, really we're going to bank on their offense
13:34
because they have a lot of offensive advantages.
13:36
They are 18th in the country in offensive efficiency.
13:39
Cincinnati is 82nd. They had the better effective
13:42
field goal percentage, actually number one in the country and
13:45
effective field goal percentage 60% versus 50%.
13:49
Better three-point shooting, 38% versus 33%, better free throw
13:53
shooting. Huge advantage here, 81% versus
13:56
69%. Now Ken Palm does have Indiana
13:58
State winning by three. It's not an edge here for Ken
14:01
Palm on the -3, 1/2 or even some books at -4.
14:04
So you guys know me by now. This is a money line play.
14:06
Just win the damn game. Indiana State.
14:08
I got Indiana State at -175. Of course that's bet Tris versus
14:12
bet twin like every bet we make. So we're not risking 1.75 units
14:16
to win one unit on on the Sycamores, we're just risking
14:18
our one unit trying to get a little more than half unit back.
14:22
As I mentioned, this is a true home game for Indiana State and
14:26
one thing that we've seen when it comes to NIT in particular is
14:31
home favorites do very well. Home favorites in the NIT are 16
14:35
and eight straight up this year 67%.
14:38
And they are, let's see, since this over the past decade
14:42
actually huge sample size. They're 187 and 77 straight up
14:47
71%. So we have the line moving
14:50
toward Indiana State. We have a good bet split on an
14:52
Indiana State. We have a much better offense
14:55
pretty much in every category. And you know home favorites.
14:58
Chalk have done well in a true home home game, not a neutral.
15:01
This is Indiana State Stadium. Maybe Larry Bird will be in
15:04
attendance, but I'm going Indiana State on the money line
15:07
-175 win the damn game. And by the way it's Robbie
15:11
Avila. Get ready to watch this guy.
15:13
He wears goggles. He does not look like a
15:14
basketball player. He's a little bit chubby, but I
15:16
can't wait to sweat this kid. I've actually never watched a
15:18
full game. I've I've seen like, you know
15:20
Twitter clips about him and he's kind of a, you know, he's a
15:23
different looking kid I must say.
15:25
But I guess apparently he's got a he he knows how to ball 610
15:29
leading scorer, great player almost like a yokich type guy.
15:32
So I'm excited to sweat him tonight but I'm going Indiana
15:35
State on the money line to win the game.
15:38
Let's win the damn game. Sycamores got him at -175.
15:43
Keep on cruising now let's go over to the NBA got a couple NBA
15:47
bets for you and I'm learning from maybe some of these overs
15:52
that aren't hitting. I'm like what's going on here.
15:54
I dip into the kind of the stats here a little bit more and we're
15:58
really seeing a lot of unders come through.
15:59
So if you look at Unders in the month of March, they're 54%,
16:03
they're 186. So pretty good angle here.
16:07
Maybe just getting toward the tail end of the season, defenses
16:10
are stepping up, offenses aren't you know, scoring as much,
16:13
producing as much. So as I'm as I'm watching, sadly
16:16
after a good first quarter, it was like pretty much stone cold
16:19
shooting the rest of the night last night in that game between
16:24
the Sixers and the Kings, digging a little bit deeper in
16:26
my, the database, I'm like, hey, unders, Unders.
16:28
There's something going on with Unders right now in the NBA.
16:30
So with that in mind couple sharp unders on a sweat tonight.
16:33
First one, Golden State in Miami.
16:35
I'm going under 218 or 217 1/2 depending on what number you can
16:40
get. I see a couple 2 eighteens out
16:42
there. It's mostly 217 1/2 but I'm
16:44
going to go under in this one. So the first thing I notice with
16:46
this Warriors and Heat under is that it's fallen quite a bit.
16:50
It open at 2:19. It's down to two 18217 1/2
16:54
through. Off the bat we're seeing sharp
16:55
money hit that under. Now that movement is notable
16:58
because the public's hammering. The over 66% of bets are going
17:01
over, yet the total fell. So dead giveaway If you have 2/3
17:05
of bets going over you know open 219 shouldn't be up to 2/22/21.
17:09
No, it's going the other way. It's falling.
17:11
Which tells us that smart money has come in on the under.
17:14
Now the under is only getting 34% of bets but 65% of the money
17:18
for warriors in heat. So hopefully another, you know
17:21
we're definitely a low bets higher dollar bet split toward
17:23
that under now in particular, Miami.
17:26
They're your number one under team in the NBA.
17:28
They're 45 and 26 to the under. They're eight and four to the
17:31
under in the month of March. Now you're gonna have to maybe
17:35
worry a little bit about this one because there's a lot of
17:37
injuries here. I feel like every Miami Heat
17:39
game, it's like, will Jimmy Butler play?
17:41
Will he not play? It's like every day you go
17:43
through this. But anyway, Tyler hero Duncan
17:45
Robinson, they're expected to be out.
17:47
Caleb Martin. Jaime Hawkez, you know, Kevin
17:50
Love, their questioner might be out.
17:52
Jimmy Butler might be out. So again, this may move a little
17:55
bit if you want to wait this thing out because you know, you
17:58
want to know whether or not these guys are going to play
18:00
like we did see a move to the Warriors.
18:01
The Warriors, at one point I want to say we're -1, 1/2, -, 2.
18:05
Now they're up to -3. So if you want some clarity or
18:08
you want to institute the 6:00 PM rule, which means wait until
18:10
6:00 to get injury information, so you know who's playing, who's
18:14
not, I totally get it, but I'm going to take a shot on this
18:16
under you. Look at the pace.
18:18
Miami is one of the slow. This is why they're a good under
18:20
team. They're one of the slowest pace
18:21
teams in the NBA. They're ranked 27th in terms of
18:23
tempo, they're 21st in offense, and they are #8 in terms of
18:27
defense. So they play good defense,
18:29
they're slow and they're not very good offensively.
18:33
And you do have a bunch of injuries here.
18:34
A lot of these guys who score a lot may not be playing tonight.
18:37
You also have a couple good under refs, in particular, Andy
18:40
Naggy, Josh Tiven, Jenna Schroeder, around 5152% to the
18:44
under. Nothing huge but they do lean
18:46
under. But you also look at again this
18:50
this the steam move under and and bet split to the under
18:53
really screams under to me So hopefully get a low scoring game
18:55
on this one. I'm going Warriors heat under.
18:58
If you can find a 218 that's great.
18:59
If not under 217 1/2 next one for you late night Dallas MAV
19:04
Sacramento Kings going under here as well.
19:07
This is an under 233 1/2 this total actually open as high as
19:11
two 36237. So we've seen it move quite a
19:14
bit. I saw another total open around
19:16
2:35 but either way it's definitely falling.
19:19
That's notable because 60% of bets are going over yet the
19:22
total fell. So another reverse line move
19:24
play. Looks to me like again really
19:26
Warriors Heat and and Mabs Kings are two sharp under plays today
19:29
so I'm going to try to get both of them.
19:31
But anyway only 40% bets but 54% of the money is on this MABS
19:36
Kings under so we got a low bets, higher dollar sharp
19:38
contrarian bet split. Have a pretty good betting
19:40
system match when the total is 230 or more.
19:43
Take the under since February 1st 2:30 or more go under it's
19:48
85 and 5262% now also if you look at both teams played last
19:53
night so both teams on the second line go back-to-back take
19:56
the under if it's a conference game that's 15 and 10 to the
19:59
under 60% overall. I also get both these teams
20:03
they're pretty good in the month of March.
20:05
They're eight and four to the under the Mavs, and they're nine
20:08
and four to the under the Kings in terms of.
20:12
In terms of their style of play basically recently in the month
20:14
of March so we have a good steam move to the under totals fallen
20:18
great bet split 2:30 or more go under in February and March is
20:21
62% both back-to-back conference under 60% and both teams eight
20:26
and four nine and four to the under this month.
20:28
So I'm looking for a low scoring game or a lower scoring game.
20:31
Mavericks and Kings among Mavs. Kings under 233 1/2.
20:36
Now over to the NHL. Got a couple NHL bets for you
20:40
guys. Actually have three overall
20:42
because I have a few games here that caught my eye and I do have
20:44
a prop that for you. So stay tuned for that.
20:46
Let's start off with first game of the night that I'll be
20:48
sweating the Carolina Hurricanes, give me the Canes,
20:51
guys shop around. I got the Canes at -185 now
20:55
Carolina is on the road 7:00 against the Pittsburgh Penguins,
20:58
they open on -180, they've embed up to -185, even -190.
21:02
So pretty consistent movement in favor of Carolina here.
21:05
Now system match wise big angle. In terms of a favored off a win
21:10
versus an opponent who missed the postseason the previous
21:12
year, this system is 66% since two 2021.
21:17
It's 64% this year if you also look at arrested Rd. division
21:21
favorite. So at least two games, two years
21:23
between your last game you're on the road, you're favored
21:26
divisional matchup that is 77 and 33 this year 69%.
21:31
So I've a lot of variations of sweet spot, big favorite, fave
21:33
off a win versus opponent, missed the postseason, Rd., fave
21:36
off win, rested, Rd. division, fave.
21:38
They're all kind of variations of the same type of situation
21:41
which be which would be a rested Rd. fave with other factors
21:44
obviously plugged in. These are all 60, four, 6669% in
21:50
favor of Carolina. Now if you dig a little deeper,
21:52
one thing that I really like is the goaltending match up.
21:56
So hopefully an advantage here in favor of the Carolina
21:59
Hurricanes. Because if you look at the
22:01
starting goalies, we are likely to be Pietor Kochakov for the
22:06
Canes against Alex Nadalkovich for the Penguins.
22:09
And Kochakov has been really good.
22:10
He's a young goaltender, 2.46 goals against, nine O 9 save
22:14
percentage. Pittsburgh's Nadalkovich 2.99
22:17
goals against, 9O2 save percentage.
22:19
Kochakov is also rested. Last game was Frederick Anderson
22:22
in that hopefully he's rested. Ready to go.
22:25
Carolina. Better offense, 3.4 goals per
22:27
game versus 2.9 for Pittsburgh. Better defense.
22:30
They're giving up two point 6A game versus 3 for Pittsburgh.
22:34
Both power play and special teams PK in favor of Carolina
22:38
power play is 27% versus 15%. You also get penalty kill 85%
22:44
versus 80%. And recent play Carolina's been
22:47
red hot eight one and one their last ten.
22:49
Over that time they're scoring four goals a game.
22:51
Pittsburgh is 2/6 and two their last ten.
22:53
They're only scoring 2.6 goals per game.
22:56
I'm also looking at kind of what these teams, how they handled
22:58
the trade deadline. You had the Carolina Hurricanes
23:00
by and by and by and by the picking up Jake Gensel, who will
23:04
be coming back to Pittsburgh tonight, as well as Kuznetsov.
23:08
And really look at Pittsburgh. They sold a lot of guys.
23:10
They got rid of a lot of players.
23:11
So that just speaks to, you know, one team going for it, the
23:13
other team packing it in. And also I'm going to look at
23:16
motivation. You know, Carolina's a great
23:17
team, one of the best teams in hockey, but they're still one
23:20
point behind the Rangers for first place in the Metro.
23:22
They're tied right now looking for home ice throughout.
23:25
Same points as the Bruins in the Florida Panthers and the
23:27
Penguins. They're not technically
23:29
eliminated, but they're nine points back with 12 game games
23:32
left for the last wild card. So we have Carolina surging, we
23:35
have Pittsburgh struggling and we have a line move and a punch.
23:39
A bunch of good system matches for Carolina.
23:40
So I'm going to take a shot with the Carolina Hurricanes guys.
23:43
Let's go Canes. I got Canes at -185.
23:47
Next up for you, I'm going to bet against VGK.
23:50
Have a really good system match. Rest first, tired on the
23:52
Nashville Predators. Let's go Preds.
23:55
Shop around. I got the Preds at around -145.
23:59
Now the Predators at home against VGK tonight, 8:00 in the
24:01
opener on -140, then bet up again to -145 -, 150.
24:06
At some shops, Rick great bet split here toward the Nashville
24:09
Preds. They're getting 73% of money
24:12
line bets, but 90% of money line dollars.
24:14
So again, three out of four bets, but nine out of $10 tells
24:17
us, you know, not just public and again, public.
24:19
I'd be careful when you're talking hockey.
24:21
There's not much betting public in hockey.
24:23
So you know to me percentages. I'm more willing to be on a 70%
24:27
if it's in hockey because it's not a very high bet sport.
24:29
But anyway, my angle here is not just a line move because it's
24:33
not that drastic 5/10 five to $0.10 of steam in favor of
24:36
Nashville, but it's a rest first tired in particular, it's a
24:39
favorite against the team on the second leg.
24:41
Go back-to-back. If you're a favorite against the
24:43
team on the second leg, go back-to-back.
24:44
This year those teams are 131 and 6567% with a 6% ROI.
24:51
So that would match here with Nashville.
24:53
Nashville has been off since Saturday.
24:56
BGK obviously played last night and even though they couldn't
24:58
hit our over, they need to go to overtime.
25:00
So BGK played last night, went to overtime, now has to travel
25:04
to Nashville, you know, Saint Louis to Nashville.
25:06
Not a huge, you know, travel situation.
25:07
It's not like you're going cross country, but you go to overtime,
25:10
you got to play the next night. And by the way, Nashville is red
25:13
hot. They're 15 and two their last
25:15
seventeen games. Petrangelo is still hurt for
25:17
Nashville and I'm looking at the goaltenders here.
25:21
I'm not sure who it's going to be, if it's going to be Logan
25:23
Thompson, if it's Thompson, he played last night, so
25:26
back-to-back because he played two nights in a row.
25:28
Or do they go to the backup? It's not Aiden Hill because he's
25:31
hurt. It would be some kid Patera who
25:34
would be the third string goal. He's got a 3.75 goals against.
25:37
So either we are going up against the third string goalie
25:40
who hopefully we can light up, or going up against the goalie
25:42
who was playing the 2nd and back-to-back nights, second time
25:45
in two nights. That's what I want to bet
25:47
against. And by the way, UC Soros, the
25:49
stud goalie for Nashville. He's got a 1.99 goals against
25:53
average in the month of March. He's 11 and two his last
25:55
thirteen starts. So I'm looking toward Nashville
25:58
here. It's a favorite versus second
26:00
leg. Go back-to-back for BGK.
26:02
Hopefully an advantage in net. Good system matches, good bet
26:04
split, little line movement. I got the Nashville Predators at
26:07
-145. Then last bit of the night for
26:11
you guys. I got a player prop.
26:13
I want to give a shout out to my buddy Darush who's been making
26:16
money left and right betting player props.
26:18
I feel like he's got posternoc shots on goals over every night.
26:21
He catches every night and I said let's get in on this.
26:23
So I'm looking at the card here for tonight.
26:26
I still hold on a 1030 game, Dallas Stars and San Jose
26:28
Sharks. Now first thing I that I was
26:31
looking at is shots on goal props and who's giving up.
26:36
Basically who is giving up a lot of shots and then therefore who
26:38
can we bet against. So what I mean by that is San
26:42
Jose Sharks. Obviously they're one of the
26:44
worst teams in hockey. They might be the worst team
26:46
based on points. I got to double check they're
26:47
down there anyway. San Jose Sharks give up the most
26:50
shots on goal in the NHL. They're #1 most shots allowed or
26:54
or dead last. Whichever way you want to look
26:56
at it. They've given up something
26:58
ridiculous. 2400 and so many shots or 2166 anyway.
27:03
They give up the most shots on goal.
27:05
Tonight. Dallas is at San Jose.
27:06
Dallas is like a -, 400 favorite.
27:08
It's a huge number. Not I'm not laying that, but I
27:12
was looking at, OK, San Jose is giving up a ton of shots.
27:15
Therefore let's target a Dallas Stars player to their over shots
27:18
on goal. So I'm looking at their, you
27:20
know, DraftKings, looking at the, the the players here listed
27:24
with their props and you know I'm looking at juiced up overs.
27:27
You know where's their liability to the over.
27:29
And I stumble on Wyatt Johnston, former first round pick.
27:33
He's the third line I believe is the Center for Dallas.
27:36
But I'm looking at shots on goal, 2 1/2 / -, 135.
27:41
So first thing I'm noticing is again 2 1/2.
27:44
Can you get three or more? But it's juiced up to the over
27:46
-135. Juiced up overs are important to
27:48
me. Remember, obviously if you're
27:50
with me during the NFL season, you're looking at player props,
27:53
you know, receiving yards over juiced up.
27:55
Obviously that's important, you know, because it tells you that
27:58
there's liability. They make you pay a higher price
28:00
for reason, yada yada yada. But pretty good favorable match
28:03
up for Johnson to go over that number.
28:05
Now, Wyatt Johnston has gone over 2 1/2 shots on goal.
28:08
So he's had three shots on goal or more, and eight of his last
28:11
12 games. The last two times they played
28:14
San Jose, he had six shots on goal and five shots on goal.
28:18
So he's playing San Jose again. San Jose of course, again, as we
28:21
mentioned, gives us the most shots on goal among any team in
28:24
the NHL. And also you look at why
28:26
Johnston on the third line, he's playing the third line of San
28:29
Jose, so they're not very deep. So that's a pretty good match up
28:32
his third line against San Jose's third line.
28:34
Hopefully you know the most most zone time here in the offensive
28:38
zone of San Jose. So we can, you know, get three
28:40
shots on goal or more. But he's going to likely skate
28:43
with Jamie, Ben and Stan COVID. And I was actually looking at
28:46
Ben too. I think he was over 1 1/2 shots
28:49
on goal, like -190. But anyway, favorable match up.
28:52
Third line center juiced up over 2 1/2.
28:54
He's gone over 8, the last 12. He's had eleven shots on goal in
28:57
the last two games against San Jose.
28:59
San Jose gives up the most shots in the NHL.
29:02
We've built a case here to take Wyatt Johnston over 2 1/2 shots
29:06
on goal. That's my bet for tonight.
29:08
I got that at -135. So there you have it guys.
29:12
Episode nine of the All Systems Go pod is now in the books, but
29:16
I want to remind you guys of a few things.
29:18
Now, First off, the All Systems Go pod.
29:21
It's like, it's like a seedling. It just germinated.
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It's, it's green. It's poking its head out through
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Most important thing you can do? Give it five stars on Spotify.
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Listen, retweet, support the pod.
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But I really want to spread the word about approaching betting
29:45
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So if you want to give it five stars and give it a boost, that
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would mean a lot to me. Also, if you want to learn more
29:53
about data-driven betting, guess what?
29:55
I wrote a book. Go buy a copy of my book.
29:57
Go to Amazon.com, type in the Everything Guide to Sports
30:00
Betting. Pick up a copy for you or for
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friend. It's got everything I've learned
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in the industry. If you want to learn more about
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data-driven contrarian betting, I have a chapter on how to bet
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MLB. I have a chapter on March
30:09
Madness. Although I must say chalk
30:12
winning every game is definitely not we're used to.
30:16
But anyway, if you want to support the team, learn more
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about data-driven betting. Get the book.
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For someone who is interested in betting or is losing and wants
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to, you know, kind of bet with their head and not their heart
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anymore, then recommend my book. It's got everything.
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I've learned how lines are set, how and why they move, how to
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read line movement, how to locate sharp action, how to
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It's all included in the Everything Guide to Sports
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Betting. So if you want to buy one it's
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Then lastly, of course, support us on social media.
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That's at under score ASG, under score Podcast and of course I
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got to have you download the Rhythm app guys, this pod is
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powered by rhythm. There are a bunch of super sharp
31:01
mathematical quants, data scientists and machine learning
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engineers for went to MIT and Rhythm is a fantastic place and
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the number one place for data back props and pics.
31:10
The ultimate AI sports betting platform, the top sports betting
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predictive analytics app on the market.
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So give Rhythm a free day trial, a free seven day trial I should
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All you got to do is go to my Twitter page as I mentioned at
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31:42
Click that, sign up. That way they know that I
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referred you and start enjoying the Rhythm app, which is just
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another great resource to help you make smart bets.
31:50
But again, rhythm is awesome and I'm very proud to be teaming up
31:53
with rhythm. That about does it guys.
31:56
Another pod here in the books, my parting words.
31:58
As always, stay sharp, stay contrarian, Bet against the
32:01
public. Place yourself on the side of
32:02
the house. Always be with the smart money,
32:04
never against it. Will smart money win every time?
32:07
Of course not. Betting's hard.
32:08
Sometimes the brakes don't go your way.
32:09
They didn't go for our way last night, But if we can
32:11
consistently have a disciplined approach, Fearless but
32:14
disciplined against the public, with the house, with the pros,
32:18
flat bet, avoid parlays, get some CLB.
32:20
If we can do that, we're going to be successful sports bettors
32:22
long term, so enjoy the sweats. Everyone have a fantastic
32:26
Tuesday night. Tomorrow we got MLB win total
32:29
Wednesday. And then of course MLB season
32:32
starts Thursday and then we have March Madness returning
32:34
Thursday. So it's a great time to be
32:35
betting on sports. I'm very happy to be doing it
32:37
with you all every single day, but enjoy the pod.
32:41
And of course, thank you for listening to episode nine of the
32:43
All Systems Go Sports Betting Podcast.
32:46
Good luck everyone.