Latest / Connor with Honor: AI, Real Estate and Real Life / Santa Clarita Q&A: 7.07% Rates, Price Cuts, Cash and VA Offers

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Santa Clarita Q&A: 7.07% Rates, Price Cuts, Cash and VA Offers · Connor with Honor: AI, Real Estate and Real Life

• 0:00
  SPEAKER_00: You got questions I got answers.
• 0:02
  SPEAKER_00: So rate went up 7.07%.
• 0:05
  SPEAKER_00: That's what's happening.
• 0:06
  SPEAKER_00: Then should I wait for them to come back down?
• 0:09
  SPEAKER_00: Wait for what exactly?
• 0:11
  SPEAKER_00: Traders are pricing roughly 69% odds that the Fed raises a quarter point on September 16th, not cuts.
• 0:20
  SPEAKER_00: And that's coming up here in very few days.
• 0:23
  SPEAKER_00: That's a bet.
• 0:24
  SPEAKER_00: And bets have been wrong all year, however.
• 0:26
  SPEAKER_00: So you can't build a purchase on the opposite of a bet.
• 0:30
  SPEAKER_00: But let me give you some kind of a let me give you some numbers.
• 0:33
  SPEAKER_00: On a$640,000 loan, every tenth of a point is about$43 a month.
• 0:39
  SPEAKER_00: So you decide on the payment that's in front of you.
• 0:43
  SPEAKER_00: What's the pump tax mean?
• 0:45
  SPEAKER_00: It is my name for what happened this morning.
• 0:47
  SPEAKER_00: Gasoline is up 27.4% over 12 months, and energy is up 16.3%, while shelter in the same government report is up only 3.0.
• 0:57
  SPEAKER_00: Headline inflation printed 3.4%.
• 1:01
  SPEAKER_00: Now that headline moves the bond market, and the bond market moves your mortgage rate.
• 1:05
  SPEAKER_00: So a housing cost got set at a gas station, and no house, offer, or agent is able to change it.
• 1:12
  SPEAKER_00: The valley says 4.1 months of supply is that good or bad?
• 1:15
  SPEAKER_00: It's balanced on paper and it describes almost nobody.
• 1:19
  SPEAKER_00: Single family homes are at 3.3 months, which is a seller's market.
• 1:24
  SPEAKER_00: Condominiums are at 8.5 months, which is a buyer's market.
• 1:28
  SPEAKER_00: Same valley.
• 1:29
  SPEAKER_00: Town homes are at 4.6.
• 1:31
  SPEAKER_00: A house and a condo a mile apart are living in completely opposite markets this morning.
• 1:38
  SPEAKER_00: So use your type, not the headline.
• 1:40
  SPEAKER_00: My house has been listed 40 days.
• 1:41
  SPEAKER_00: Is something wrong with it?
• 1:43
  SPEAKER_00: No.
• 1:44
  SPEAKER_00: Days on market, that's a check-in point.
• 1:46
  SPEAKER_00: It's not a verdict.
• 1:47
  SPEAKER_00: And a house does not go bad on a calendar.
• 1:50
  SPEAKER_00: The homes that close under asking in the last 30 days took a median of 40 days, and the ones that closed over took 13.
• 1:58
  SPEAKER_00: That gap is information about buyer behavior in your price ban, not a grade on your home.
• 2:03
  SPEAKER_00: Look at showings feedback and what actually closed near you, then you decide.
• 2:07
  SPEAKER_00: Well, almost half sold under asking, so is the market failing side.
• 2:11
  SPEAKER_00: 46.8% sold under asking in the last 30 days, and the median amount was 16,999.
• 2:20
  SPEAKER_00: But the 90-day and 180-day splits are nearly identical.
• 2:23
  SPEAKER_00: So this is the shape of the valley, and that shape is held all year, not a new break.
• 2:28
  SPEAKER_00: And the 90-day valley median went from 800,000 to 800,000, 0% flat is the right word.
• 2:36
  SPEAKER_00: And flat is by no means a crap.
• 2:39
  SPEAKER_00: Should I cut my prime?
• 2:40
  SPEAKER_00: Now that's your call.
• 2:41
  SPEAKER_00: I'm not gonna make it happen from a microphone.
• 2:43
  SPEAKER_00: Now here's the other thing that uh data says over 12 months for 456 of 1,316 sellers adjusted a median of$30,000 and they were on the market a median of 63 days against 13 for the ones who never adjusted.
• 3:00
  SPEAKER_00: So plenty of things set a spark starting number besides an opinion.
• 3:04
  SPEAKER_00: So if you're gonna check in on price at all early, it's worth more than late.
• 3:09
  SPEAKER_00: Where's the best deal for a buyer right now?
• 3:11
  SPEAKER_00: Attached product.
• 3:12
  SPEAKER_00: There are 213 condominiums and 1,100, no 111 townhomes active against 25 and 24 closings in the last 30 days, respectively.
• 3:23
  SPEAKER_00: New Hall alone has 54 condos active in two closings, which is 27 months of supply.
• 3:28
  SPEAKER_00: If you own one of those, your competition is the other 53.
• 3:32
  SPEAKER_00: If you're gonna be buying one, almost nobody is bidding against you, and that window may not be open in the spring.
• 3:38
  SPEAKER_00: How many open houses are there that are gonna be held this weekend?
• 3:41
  SPEAKER_00: And what time should I go?
• 3:43
  SPEAKER_00: Spring 22 today between 11 a.m.
• 3:46
  SPEAKER_00: and 4 p.m.
• 3:47
  SPEAKER_00: 11's uh 118 Saturday, 103 Sunday.
• 3:51
  SPEAKER_00: These are open houses, 221 so far across the weekend.
• 3:56
  SPEAKER_00: Santa Clita Open Houses has all of them.
• 3:58
  SPEAKER_00: Valencia has 94, Saugus 46, Canyon Country 42, and 154 of them sit inside the 12 to 2 window.
• 4:06
  SPEAKER_00: So go to 11 or go after 2 if you want an agent who can actually talk with you instead of managing a room.
• 4:13
  SPEAKER_00: Is a cash offer really worth more, worth less to the seller?
• 4:17
  SPEAKER_00: Actually, and that's the trade over 12 months.
• 4:20
  SPEAKER_00: Cash closed at 98.7% of list, while conventional FHA and VA closed at 100% all in.
• 4:29
  SPEAKER_00: Cash buys about a 1.3% discount in exchange for speed and certainty.
• 4:35
  SPEAKER_00: And that's the whole deal out loud, and both sides of the table know that number.
• 4:40
  SPEAKER_00: Should I be nervous about a VA offer?
• 4:42
  SPEAKER_00: The feed doesn't support that.
• 4:43
  SPEAKER_00: Over 12 months, VA was 137 sales closed at 100% of list in a median of 26 days.
• 4:50
  SPEAKER_00: That's the fastest and cleanest group for the entire board, and also the smallest at 5.4%.
• 4:56
  SPEAKER_00: So, whatever you were told about VA loans a decade ago, this valley zone record says something completely different.
• 5:03
  SPEAKER_00: How is Saugus doing against Valencia?
• 5:05
  SPEAKER_00: Closer than people think on price and not close on supply.
• 5:08
  SPEAKER_00: The 30-day medians are 817,500 in Saugus, 820,000 in Valencia, which is$2,500 apart, but Saugus is at 2.5 months of supply against Valencia, 3.2.
• 5:22
  SPEAKER_00: So Saugus is a much tighter board.
• 5:25
  SPEAKER_00: Now Valencia closed at a median of 22 days.
• 5:27
  SPEAKER_00: Saugus took 35.
• 5:29
  SPEAKER_00: So there's that trade-off.
• 5:30
  SPEAKER_00: Okay, what's the one thing I should do this week?
• 5:32
  SPEAKER_00: If you're buying, get that quote today rather in two weeks.
• 5:36
  SPEAKER_00: And at every open house, ask two things.
• 5:38
  SPEAKER_00: How many days has it been on the market and has the price moved?
• 5:42
  SPEAKER_00: 87 listings moved a price in the last seven days for a combined 2004 two million, two million four thousand four hundred and seventeen dollars.
• 5:55
  SPEAKER_00: If you're selling, put what actually closed within a mile of you in the last 30 days, put it side by side with your own number.
• 6:02
  SPEAKER_00: And I'm Connor with honor.
• 6:04
  SPEAKER_00: You have a fantastic day.
• 6:05
  SPEAKER_00: We'll see you tomorrow.
• 6:06
  SPEAKER_00: All the information I post up here, it's at Santa ClaritaOpenhouses.com.
• 6:11
  SPEAKER_00: Don't panic.
• 6:12
  SPEAKER_00: The seller side, buyer side.
• 6:14
  SPEAKER_00: Just be true to your number and it's going to happen.
• 6:18
  SPEAKER_00: Period.
• 6:18
  SPEAKER_00: It always does.
• 6:20
  SPEAKER_00: Nobody has ever sat forever anywhere, and no buyer has waited forever to buy either.
• 6:25
  SPEAKER_00: Be well.
• 6:26
  SPEAKER_00: Connor with honor.
• 6:27
  SPEAKER_00: We'll see you tomorrow.