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Scouting the Fins-12-4-25 · 3 Yards Per Carry - Miami Dolphins

0:31
[SPEAKER_02]: What's up everybody and welcome to another episode of Scouting The Fins right here on the three-ish precarious podcast feed, also part of the five reason sports network.
0:42
[SPEAKER_02]: The dolphins are fresh off of a win coming.
0:46
[SPEAKER_02]: off of a win.
0:47
[SPEAKER_02]: Again, I'm just really out of it.
0:50
[SPEAKER_02]: It's been a while since I've podcasted since last since Thanksgiving at least.
0:55
[SPEAKER_02]: But yeah, fresh off of a win.
0:57
[SPEAKER_02]: The Norlene Saints looks like the Dolphins team had a little bit too much stuffing and turkey and ham where they got sleepy towards the end, but they won the game.
1:10
[SPEAKER_02]: However, this game could have been a major, major accident where they could have lost an eighth game.
1:19
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1:44
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1:56
[SPEAKER_02]: Once again, ThomsonSugar.com, gentlemen, coach and Eric.
2:03
[SPEAKER_02]: Well boy, that game was uh, that game up against the Saints was uh, was too close for it was
2:14
[SPEAKER_00]: That is the the kindest way that you can put that game.
2:20
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I didn't get a chance to watch the post game show.
2:27
[SPEAKER_02]: I was at work unfortunately, but I could tell you guys were a little bit mad.
2:33
[SPEAKER_02]: little bit angry, very, very surprised and just still coming off of that game where you're like, what the heck just happened?
2:43
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, they had it in the bag in the first half.
2:48
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I mean, you know, I was a little worried watching that game because it kind of felt eerily similar to what happened against the Panthers and other NFC South opponent.
2:58
[SPEAKER_01]: You were up
3:03
[SPEAKER_01]: And it kind of just felt like, oh, my God, here we go again, but you know, throughout this dolphins, little resurgence here in this run, and we're going to talk about this, I'm sure at Nazium today.
3:18
[SPEAKER_01]: The guy that's really been carrying them and,
3:26
[SPEAKER_01]: And I mean, carrying with a capital C is Devon H and I mean, he's just, he's just thrown on the Superman cape in the last three to four weeks here and put together a stretch of games that, you know, we haven't seen since, you know, at least Jay and Jay and then going back even further Ricky Williams with the kind of performances he's putting up in the way that he's been able to kind of take over games here.
3:55
[SPEAKER_01]: I, you know, I don't even want to think about where they'd be if it wasn't for for him at the moment.
4:01
[SPEAKER_01]: And to give credit to the offensive line, I think the offensive line is jelled in the last four or five weeks pretty nicely, especially going to the heavy packages with Daniel Brunskill.
4:13
[SPEAKER_01]: It hasn't been a really nice, wrinkle added to the offense, but yeah, I mean, I mean, that's
4:24
[SPEAKER_02]: Thank God the dolphins have the Von H. Yeah, since the by week, they've leaned on him and the offensive line, the specifically in the run game, a lot more out of 12 personnel, 21, 22, 23, and 13.
4:42
[SPEAKER_02]: Personnel, a lot of jumbo and heavy looks.
4:44
[SPEAKER_02]: We've talked a lot about that.
4:46
[SPEAKER_02]: And that's kind of coaching to distort it the defensive spacing a little bit.
4:54
[SPEAKER_02]: team in terms of EPA per rush, or to EPA per play, I'm sorry, out of 12 personnel.
5:02
[SPEAKER_02]: That was in the case two or three years ago with Mike McDaniel, and we're seeing that directly translate onto the field.
5:11
[SPEAKER_02]: And Eric, you said at the entire star of that approach, is Devon Hain.
5:17
[SPEAKER_02]: He's been on an absolute tear the last four weeks.
5:20
[SPEAKER_02]: He's number one in yards per rush with almost eight yards per carry.
5:25
[SPEAKER_02]: Number one in Rush EPA with a positive 0.53.
5:30
[SPEAKER_02]: Number one in yards, your contact per attempt.
5:38
[SPEAKER_02]: He's getting after he gets touch, he gets hit.
5:43
[SPEAKER_02]: And number one in New York's before contact, which is almost two of your precarious.
5:48
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, that's insane for a guy with his stature and his weight.
5:58
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, the numbers he's been putting up lately are absolutely ridiculous.
6:02
[SPEAKER_00]: They're going to be tough to be able to sustain those numbers.
6:07
[SPEAKER_00]: through these last five games, he gets a lot of, you know, the after contacts that we talked about, being one, he gets those big explosive plays where you break a tackle and then, you know, you're in the open field and once you're in the open field, like that can really amplify those numbers, right?
6:24
[SPEAKER_00]: Cause he's gonna score a lot of times and he gets into that secondary.
6:28
[SPEAKER_00]: But he also for a back that's his size and the coaches have talked about this.
6:32
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, we we talk about the bigger backs right the 230 pound backs being able to finish forward right running behind their pads that type of stuff, but the coaches have talked about Devon HN and the way that he avoids taking those big hits right that's why he's been able to stay healthy, why he's able to handle this type of workload, but that also contributes to those yards after contact because he might not be, you know, meeting a linebacker in the hole and running over that linebacker.
7:00
[SPEAKER_00]: and getting those two, three, four yards after contact.
7:04
[SPEAKER_00]: But you know, when he's that little slippery guy that, you know, can get more of a glancing hit and can fall forward with it.
7:11
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, he's finishing forward in a different way.
7:15
[SPEAKER_00]: And you know, like you guys have said, like he's the, the engine behind everything that's going on right now, like we've talked before about, you know, while I'm being a number one receiver being, you know,
7:25
[SPEAKER_00]: you know, having star type capabilities, but it's been shown that, you know, a team really wants to focus on model, they can take model out of the game and make somebody else have to beat them.
7:36
[SPEAKER_00]: Devon HN on the other hand, like teams have to be trying to take him out of the game as much as possible, and he's still making plays every week.
7:45
[SPEAKER_00]: So, you know, he's a pro board for sure, you know, probably should be in all
7:55
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, and I think Devon Hain heavily, heavily matters specifically for this run game no matter who is in the offensive line because with Devon Hain in the game, Miami's run game is actually more efficient.
8:13
[SPEAKER_02]: one that dolphins are expecting.
8:15
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, I mean, sorry, when the dolphins opposing defense is, are expecting a run.
8:22
[SPEAKER_02]: They're the number, you know, top five team and rushing yards on first down.
8:30
[SPEAKER_02]: Not as efficient on second down and they're above average on third down and
8:35
[SPEAKER_02]: That's where the meat and the potatoes is made.
8:39
[SPEAKER_02]: Now, you might not use Devon H and all the time on third-notch run, you could use Ollie Gordon, Jalen Wright, which has been successful.
8:46
[SPEAKER_02]: And that's where the other parts of the offensive land, the other parts of their run game comes in.
8:51
[SPEAKER_02]: I feel like against the saints, they leaned a bit too much on outside zone.
8:56
[SPEAKER_02]: They went a little bit away from inside zone, which is why some of the runs were unsuccessful
9:06
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I mean, you know, when when you have this heavy look and you have a guy like like HN, I think it's a lot of people think when you play that heavy style of football that you need to running back that kind of matches that, but on the contrary, when you bring in this heavy personnel, you have a guy like HN who has such a unique skill set when it comes to being able to kind of get skinny inside the holes and navigating.
9:31
[SPEAKER_01]: those those really tight spaces with all those big bodies around.
9:36
[SPEAKER_01]: It allows for him to why he's such a good inside runner.
9:41
[SPEAKER_01]: And it sounds counterintuitive.
9:44
[SPEAKER_01]: You want to get him in space.
9:45
[SPEAKER_01]: Absolutely you do as much as you can.
9:47
[SPEAKER_01]: But the other thing that you want and the other thing that I think the heavy personnel kind of leads into is
9:57
[SPEAKER_01]: We talked about the numbers with the yards before contact and then the yards after contact.
10:03
[SPEAKER_01]: Those two things are actually really closely linked together.
10:07
[SPEAKER_01]: Devon HN is an elite accelerator at the running back position.
10:12
[SPEAKER_01]: If you're giving him two yards before he's contacted, he's already at max speed.
10:18
[SPEAKER_01]: And so he's running full momentum and a lot of the times you are getting those little arm tackles that they're just trying to slip him up and he's a smaller guy, but it's still 2-10 moving really fast and that's going to be difficult to take down.
10:37
[SPEAKER_01]: But all that to say, I think when you, when you look at what the dolphins do in terms
10:47
[SPEAKER_01]: there are some things that seem a little counterintuitive with what Devonation should be able to do.
10:52
[SPEAKER_01]: What he is able to do, there's nothing that he's not able to do as a running back.
10:56
[SPEAKER_01]: But I think the effectiveness on the inside zone is I think he's more effective running inside than a lot of people give him credit for on a weekly basis.
11:08
[SPEAKER_01]: And we've been saying that for a long time, but he's just a stigma that he's had to kind of get over
11:16
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, let's move on to this actual game between the dolphins and the jet.
11:23
[SPEAKER_02]: So let's talk about, you know, the worst team in the NFL to ever exist.
11:33
[SPEAKER_02]: Number one, this team is very, very confusing.
11:36
[SPEAKER_02]: This team is very, very confusing, especially on the defensive side of the ball.
11:41
[SPEAKER_02]: They're, they're kind of hard to evaluate.
11:45
[SPEAKER_02]: Okay.
11:46
[SPEAKER_02]: In terms of defensive EPA per play, they rank 27th, which is bad.
11:51
[SPEAKER_02]: Near bottom of the league.
11:53
[SPEAKER_02]: but their eighth in success rate allowed, which is good.
11:58
[SPEAKER_02]: Now look, which means they give up explosives, a lot of the time here and there, but on a down by down basis, they're kind of efficient, especially on first down and second down, it's more so the third down is which the jet's defense really, really deteriorates.
12:19
[SPEAKER_02]: Now we know for the Miami Dolphins,
12:21
[SPEAKER_02]: Really good, I'm running the ball on first down.
12:24
[SPEAKER_02]: Second down, you could argue that they're below average or towards the bottom of the league.
12:30
[SPEAKER_02]: So these second downs for the Miami Dolphins is gonna be really crucial.
12:35
[SPEAKER_02]: And this matters because this Dolphins offense thrives on early down explosives, especially with their heavy personal package, the types of motions.
12:45
[SPEAKER_02]: They run, obviously they use the motion at 70% just the highest in the NFL.
12:49
[SPEAKER_02]: and they're the best EPA team out of 12 personal when they're using two tight ends.
12:56
[SPEAKER_02]: So, if they use Darren Waller, if they use Greg Dolcech, if they use Julian Hill on those plays, you could potentially get a combination of, okay, you could be running
13:07
[SPEAKER_02]: either towards Darren Waller side, you could be running towards Greg Dulse at your side.
13:11
[SPEAKER_02]: You could be getting PA boot actions on first down, maybe second down.
13:15
[SPEAKER_02]: If they get, you know, seven eight yards on first down, there's a lot of things that could happen with this dolphins offense, especially if they succeed.
13:24
[SPEAKER_02]: But if they don't succeed, they're going to be put way past the sticks and this
13:36
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I mean, one thing is these teams both look very different, then they did back in week four when these two teams played, right?
13:45
[SPEAKER_00]: The jet's defense no longer has sauce gardener, no longer have quenium Williams.
13:51
[SPEAKER_00]: The dolphins offense, right?
13:53
[SPEAKER_00]: We have Austin Jackson back on the offensive line.
13:55
[SPEAKER_00]: That first game against the jet was co-stranges first game in the line.
14:00
[SPEAKER_00]: Darren Waller had not been activated at that point.
14:03
[SPEAKER_00]: Greg Dolce, which was still a giant at that point.
14:05
[SPEAKER_00]: So it's going to be very interesting to see how the jets react to it.
14:11
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, the roster is obviously very devoid of talent right now.
14:15
[SPEAKER_00]: Aaron Lenny is trying to, you know, put his stamp on it.
14:18
[SPEAKER_00]: It feels a lot like when Brian Flores was here and his first year with the dolphins.
14:23
[SPEAKER_00]: And it was an opportunity to name guys.
14:25
[SPEAKER_00]: And they were trying to find those core players to build off of that.
14:29
[SPEAKER_00]: That's what it feels like with the defense that they have right now.
14:33
[SPEAKER_00]: But you know, the dolphins should be able to lean into the stuff that they've been doing well, right, they should be able to go into those multiple tight ends that's damn brunt school was not being used as a six offensive line in that first time that they played right so this often should look very different than the last time that they played.
14:52
[SPEAKER_00]: And, you know, hopefully we do continue to see those multiple tight ends sets and as teams try to take away jail and water, you know, we're going to need the Darren Wallers to Greg Dolcech's to be able to open stuff up because you're going to, you know, until you get those safety used to start having to respect the tight ends in the middle of the field, then you're, you know, you're going to have those explosive plays being taken away again.
15:15
[SPEAKER_00]: But eventually, you know, teams are going to adjust, right, teams are,
15:19
[SPEAKER_00]: somebody's going to say we're not going to let Devon each and beat us right and then it's going to have to be somebody else that steps up whether it's water or whether it's, you know, Darren Waller, somebody like that.
15:31
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I mean, this is also a jet defense that has since traded away Quinn Williams and saws gardener, which, you know, makes a pretty massive difference on their
15:44
[SPEAKER_01]: I fully expect this game to kind of be played in the mud this week a little bit metaphorically speaking I don't I don't really see either offense operating all that well If or no other reason than than what you guys mentioned, I mean at some point someone is going to
16:08
[SPEAKER_01]: have some sort of success taking to bond H&O.
16:12
[SPEAKER_01]: Whether it's this week, next week, or a couple weeks down the road, at some point, it's going to happen.
16:17
[SPEAKER_01]: And it's going to be a matter of seeing whether the dolphins are capable to make, of making those adjustments.
16:23
[SPEAKER_01]: and making teams pay for for selling out in that way.
16:26
[SPEAKER_01]: Like you guys mentioned, with the play action, the boots.
16:30
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think that you have tight ends that are uniquely equipped to, you know, make teams pay for that, uh, in Darren Waller and Greg Dolcech, and what they can do kind of after they catch and over the middle of the field.
16:46
[SPEAKER_01]: But this is a game where the dolphins,
16:54
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a game where I think both teams know what the other one wants to do, and it's just going to come down to who's more physical.
17:00
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, and I know that that sounds extremely basic at a football level, but I mean, it's going to be a cold weather game.
17:07
[SPEAKER_01]: We know that the dolphins want to go heavy.
17:09
[SPEAKER_01]: We know that the jets want to stop the run.
17:12
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think it's really which team executes better than the trenches.
17:17
[SPEAKER_01]: And that's kind of the only the key to the game.
17:19
[SPEAKER_02]: It sounds like it's going to be a coach's favorite game this season based on the offensive line and how the defensive line performs and look running to the outside mind me as a seventh best rushing offense when they run to the outside and they use you know motions to stretch defenses horizontally now they don't do the same type of motions anymore.
17:40
[SPEAKER_02]: They don't do the orbits, they don't do the cross-orbits, they don't have these funky two-three motions happening anymore.
17:47
[SPEAKER_02]: It's just one, maybe two maximum with the tight end coming in line, Alec Engold going outside or the wider-severed motioning across the other side of the formation.
17:59
[SPEAKER_02]: And that's it.
18:00
[SPEAKER_02]: It's basic motions at that point.
18:03
[SPEAKER_02]: And we've seen the more basic the motion, the more effective it can be.
18:09
[SPEAKER_02]: Now, the jets, they struggle on outside runfits, and pretty much rely on their corners to force the edge, which plays directly into my mistakes with the offensive line with Austin Jackson getting out in space, Aaron Brewer getting out in space, Patrick Paul getting out in space, especially to the edges.
18:29
[SPEAKER_02]: And the jets are going to be down Jarvis Brown, the junior and another corner as well.
18:34
[SPEAKER_02]: So they could be playing a backup corners.
18:36
[SPEAKER_02]: which also leads to another point, the jets are also really bad at defending play action passes.
18:42
[SPEAKER_02]: They're 28th in EPA, whenever a play action pass is headed their way.
18:47
[SPEAKER_02]: So if they sell out to stop an outside zone run, but have a play action boot, you could have a play action waggle, or you could have one of those RPO glances to jail and model, that could go for 30, 40, 50 yards and gain a lot of yack through there.
19:04
[SPEAKER_02]: However, there is a different side to this story.
19:07
[SPEAKER_02]: And we got to talk about the history of Tua and Cold weather games and the New York Jets whenever they play Tua Tunga by Lua.
19:17
[SPEAKER_02]: It's either, it happens again, where Tua beats the Jets.
19:23
[SPEAKER_02]: Hasn't lost to the Jets at all.
19:26
[SPEAKER_02]: Or,
19:27
[SPEAKER_02]: less than 40 degree weather, and two ways again, winless.
19:32
[SPEAKER_02]: So which one is it going to be, Jens?
19:37
[SPEAKER_01]: Um, and this is this is the stoppable force versus the movable object.
19:41
[SPEAKER_01]: Um, if I had, if right now, if I had to, make a guess, um,
19:56
[SPEAKER_01]: I've gone back and forth on it a few times.
19:59
[SPEAKER_01]: I think I'm a little bit more intimidated by this Jets offense led by Tyrod Taylor than I am by the Jets offense led by Justin Fields.
20:09
[SPEAKER_01]: Not necessarily informed by any hard data, just experience losing to Tyrod Taylor a few times.
20:15
[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, you know, you know.
20:19
[SPEAKER_01]: But to Jets don't have a do on HN,
20:23
[SPEAKER_01]: And I don't know if they'll be able to stop him.
20:24
[SPEAKER_01]: As you mentioned, the jets on a down-to-down base are very good, but they do give up the occasional explosive play.
20:32
[SPEAKER_01]: Kind of feels like that's kind of been the Dolphins offense.
20:35
[SPEAKER_01]: Over the last few weeks is kind of struggling on a down-to-down basis, but eventually hitting that home run with the Von H.N., and I think that we kind of see a similar formula play out in the metal lands in a Dolphins win.
20:50
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, so I just pulled up the weather for Sunday and Sunday and East rather for it, you know, high of 40, right?
20:58
[SPEAKER_00]: So I mean, it's cold.
20:59
[SPEAKER_00]: I know it's cold for you guys, but it's not gonna be that bad.
21:04
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, especially once you got there and playing like, there's a difference, right?
21:08
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm not gonna say it's the same as playing in 60, 70 degree weather, but, you know, we're talking about 40 degree weather versus 25 degrees, that's a big jump there.
21:20
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, the windshield of 25 something like that, then I would be a little more concerned about the dolphins traveling up here and playing in this type of weather, but I don't think the weather is going to be a huge factor.
21:31
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think it does come down, you know, especially in a situation where, you know, we're talking about the dolphins.
21:48
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, I think that is where the key will be.
21:51
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think the dolphins are well equipped to win in those situations.
21:56
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, I think the key for me, we've had a couple of games now, like Eric said, where the dolphins have jumped out to early leads, and then kind of took their foot off the gas or didn't make the same adjustments, but then we end up at the end of the game, scrap and clawing for a victory.
22:14
[SPEAKER_00]: So I feel like this could be the same type of scenario where the dolphins come out and they find that early success Mike McDaniel and Anthony weaver, you know seem to have very good early game games most weeks, but then as they come out of half it feels like, you know, either they're being too conservative or other teams are making better adjustments.
22:39
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think that's going to be the key here.
22:41
[SPEAKER_00]: I think the dolphins will get out to an early lead again in this game, and then it'll just come down to, you know, how uncomfortable they make it at the end, whether or not they can maintain that lead or whether they let the jets claw back into it, they let Tyrod Taylor escape a sack and, you know, throw a bomb to, I don't even know who his wife or see was on this week, but, you know, something, something silly like that to get back into the game.
23:08
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, we're playing the Saints and it, you know, on side kick that they recover and then you know the ball falls through a lot of his hands, you know, something crazy like that.
23:17
[SPEAKER_00]: So I'd rather rather see them just handle business the whole way.
23:21
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, I'm not expecting a three score win, right, but let's not be in a scenario where Tyrod Taylor Hail Mary could win the game for him.
23:30
[SPEAKER_02]: I can't believe we got two predictions halfway to the show.
23:35
[SPEAKER_02]: It seems very confident that the dolphins will be at the jets.
23:39
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26:58
[SPEAKER_02]: Now look guys this uh this dolphin's
27:04
[SPEAKER_02]: It's been great, but only on the first half.
27:07
[SPEAKER_02]: Seriously, only in the first half.
27:10
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, we saw it in the Carolina game.
27:13
[SPEAKER_02]: We saw it in the Saints game.
27:14
[SPEAKER_02]: We saw it in the Commanders game.
27:18
[SPEAKER_02]: They were actually pretty dominant against the Buffalo bills, even though the bills tried to claw their way back and the Dolphins defense stopped it.
27:26
[SPEAKER_02]: But that Saints game kind of just really put me over the top
27:34
[SPEAKER_02]: can be really, really good early on, and then just completely fall off the Mariana trench in the second half.
27:42
[SPEAKER_02]: So I did some research, I did some deep diving, and oh my God, it is the tail of two defenses.
27:52
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, since we ate in the first half, which is the first and second quarter, obviously.
27:58
[SPEAKER_02]: The Miami Dolphins defense ranks first in almost every major metric except for past success where they ranked 12th, they ranked 4th in overall success and second in rush success.
28:15
[SPEAKER_02]: And that pretty much means that this Dolphins defense,
28:21
[SPEAKER_02]: can stop anything that comes their way.
28:24
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, they can stop defenses from getting first downs at like an 11% rate.
28:31
[SPEAKER_02]: They're down conversion for a get about it.
28:34
[SPEAKER_02]: They're the best in the league.
28:36
[SPEAKER_02]: This is like a Super Bowl caliber defense that produces, that is able to get off the field, that every series it's only four or maybe five plays in that series and then the offense comes and scores more points as much as they can, which has been the case for this dolphins offense in the first half as well.
28:58
[SPEAKER_02]: But in the second half, and again, since week eight, since the dolphins got onto this winning street, they've been bottom, they are bottom feeders, okay?
29:09
[SPEAKER_02]: 30th in success, right?
29:11
[SPEAKER_02]: 30th in past success, allowed 27th in overall EPA per play.
29:16
[SPEAKER_02]: 30 first and third down conversions, allowed 30th in first down rush,
29:22
[SPEAKER_02]: percentage allow 27th in EPA per play 24th in rush success allow this is a full on collapse like from an elite defense to someone that is a straight up non functional like this is ridiculous and why why is it happening I think that
29:50
[SPEAKER_00]: A lot of it has to do with the inability for the dolphins to be able to succeed rushing for, right?
29:59
[SPEAKER_00]: We don't have that stand-out past pressure that really scares you, right?
30:04
[SPEAKER_00]: Bradley Tubbs, been having a good season, but he doesn't, he's not a mile's Garrett or Mike Parsons or anything like that.
30:12
[SPEAKER_00]: Chop Robinson has not, you know, been the explosive past
30:19
[SPEAKER_00]: second season and then are, you know, the interior guys for the most part are more run-type defenders than they are, you know, past rushers.
30:29
[SPEAKER_00]: So to me, it feels like, you know, we see the early game stuff from Anthony Weaver and we see a lot of stunts, a lot of slants, a lot of blitzes, that type of thing and they are, you know, very fast playing defense and it's a very fine line
30:47
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, any time that you do that, you're opening up, you can't defend everything all at once, right?
30:53
[SPEAKER_00]: Any time that your blitz, you're leaving something else open, right?
30:57
[SPEAKER_00]: And a lot of times, if a offense diagnosis it properly, that could be something deep.
31:03
[SPEAKER_00]: So, you know, I understand why they kind of dial that back some when they do get a lead, but to me, it feels like maybe they're dialing it back.
31:13
[SPEAKER_00]: a little bit too much going a little too vanilla because we don't we don't have the guys up front that are just going to win on their own rushing for and playing coverage behind them right I think that they need to do a little better job of you know kind of keeping the you know the foot on the neck of the opponent there when they when they get up like that and you know not allow the quarterback to get comfortable you know early in games were
31:40
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, we're getting free rushers, we're making quarterbacks on comfortable, and you know, they're getting the ball out quicker, whereas again, like I don't have the numbers in front of me for, but it feels like as we get further in the games, that quarterbacks are able to be a little more comfortable in the pocket, they're able to move around a little more.
31:58
[SPEAKER_00]: And then if you do get one of those guys winning up front, you end up missing a sack.
32:04
[SPEAKER_00]: And we see a quarterback scramble out of the pocket, and then we're
32:10
[SPEAKER_00]: And you know, bad stuff happens when you ask guys to cover for that long.
32:15
[SPEAKER_00]: So for me, you know, especially with the dolphins jumping out to some of these leads, it just feels like Anthony Weaver is getting a little too conservative.
32:23
[SPEAKER_00]: And again, that's a fine line, right?
32:25
[SPEAKER_00]: You don't want to, you, you do have to dial it back some because you don't want to give up the big play that lets them back into the game quicker.
32:32
[SPEAKER_00]: But, you know, if the offense is not,
32:35
[SPEAKER_00]: continuing to extend that lead, then you have to be able to kind of, you know, flip that switch on and off as to when you need to dial up the pressure and heated up a little bit versus when you need to drop back and, you know, play a little bend but don't break defects.
32:53
[SPEAKER_01]: I think the point has been a little bit accentuated over the last few weeks because
32:58
[SPEAKER_01]: It's more obvious when you're playing teams like the Saints, like the commanders who have a Marcus Marioa, who have a Tyler Shuck at quarterback.
33:09
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, those are, those are teams that, now I'm not saying you should be blitzing and super aggressive all the time against anyone.
33:20
[SPEAKER_01]: However, I just think that there's a little bit
33:28
[SPEAKER_01]: those offences in some of these situations where you're playing with leads to where, you know, my priority is
33:38
[SPEAKER_01]: to attack a young quarterback in Tyler Schuck, rather than letting him sit back and get comfortable.
33:47
[SPEAKER_01]: Because I think you can afford to be more aggressive against those offenses, you know, all game long and not necessarily pay for it like you would versus
33:59
[SPEAKER_01]: you know, a LA Rams or, you know, a Dallas Cowboys, what have you teams that have really good quarterback play, I just this run that they've been on, I don't think they've really been playing teams that are equipped to at least consistently hurt them in that way.
34:21
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think that it makes it look more stark because you're seeing such a huge difference between, you know, you're playing these teams in the first half, like Washington, like New Orleans.
34:33
[SPEAKER_01]: And they look like their offenses have played for most of the season.
34:38
[SPEAKER_01]: And then, you know, you come into the second half and it's, well, boy, they're quarterback.
34:43
[SPEAKER_01]: Really has all day to throw.
34:45
[SPEAKER_01]: And then, you know, man, we really missed that sack there.
34:51
[SPEAKER_01]: Again, the dolphin secondary is being good, but it's just, you can't expect them to cover, you know, four, five, six seconds.
34:59
[SPEAKER_01]: You can't expect anyone to cover for that amount of time in the NFL.
35:03
[SPEAKER_01]: I just, I think Anthony Weaver has found something that really works in the first half, and I think maybe mixing a little bit more of that in the second half would be beneficial starting this week.
35:21
[SPEAKER_02]: with what you're already succeeding with.
35:24
[SPEAKER_02]: And as is the case with my big Daniel on the offense,
35:28
[SPEAKER_02]: The same should go for Anthony Weaver and this Dolphins defense and just look that up.
35:36
[SPEAKER_02]: All right.
35:37
[SPEAKER_02]: And Coach, you're absolutely right.
35:38
[SPEAKER_02]: And Eric, you're also absolutely right to the Miami Dolphins defense cannot generate pressure with four rushers.
35:46
[SPEAKER_02]: They have a 44% success rate when they rush only four pass rushers, which is the second worst in the NFL.
35:56
[SPEAKER_02]: And then in the second half, I looked at it, they are dead last in the NFL with less than a 37% success rate.
36:06
[SPEAKER_02]: Now look, without pressure, obviously the coverage is going to break down.
36:10
[SPEAKER_02]: So the dolphins are absolutely breaking down in zone coverage, because once again, this defense is primarily zone-based.
36:18
[SPEAKER_02]: They are the second worst defense in zone coverage when they play quarterbacks.
36:26
[SPEAKER_02]: In the second half, they're also second words like regardless of his own, they are bad up against the past.
36:33
[SPEAKER_02]: But they don't play more man because they don't have the personnel, they are changing their players all the time between.
36:41
[SPEAKER_02]: Jason Marshall Jr. Ethan Bonner, Resoul Douglas, Juju Brens, who's now out for the season, have Mink of Fitzpatrick playing primarily in the slot.
36:53
[SPEAKER_02]: Now like there's no consistent player in a specific position along the quarterback unit itself where they are rotating in guys.
37:05
[SPEAKER_02]: Like these guys cannot be consistent, they cannot continuously work.
37:09
[SPEAKER_02]: they cannot be part of the scramble drill and play effectively because the past rush of Bradley Chau, Matthew Juna, Chau Bravinson, Zack Seeler, Zieg Baders, Kenneth Grant, Jordan Phillips.
37:25
[SPEAKER_02]: They can't pressure the quarterback, they can't, you know, get the quarterback to move off his spot and then collapse the pocket itself.
37:33
[SPEAKER_02]: And now you're playing up against Tyrod Taylor, who ran 14 times up against Atlanta.
37:39
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm sorry, not 14 times.
37:42
[SPEAKER_02]: Eight times up against Atlanta.
37:44
[SPEAKER_02]: He ran for 44 yards on eight carries and a touchdown, which basically the game winning drive for the Jets.
37:53
[SPEAKER_02]: He scrambled to pick up 14 yards and lead the team like, it's gonna be those cases where if they're collapsing the pocket on Tyrod Taylor,
38:02
[SPEAKER_02]: can the linebackers like Tyrell Dodson, Jordan Brooks, Mink of Fitzpatrick, if you melafon can he contain him and limit him to three four yard rushes, like they need to be very disciplined and again, they're going to have to play zone against Tyrell Taylor.
38:18
[SPEAKER_02]: They're going to have to play Zona against Tyra Taylor because if they play man, Tyra Taylor may be able to find them.
38:24
[SPEAKER_02]: If he has time, if he's able to sit back, you know, he's a veteran quarterback.
38:28
[SPEAKER_02]: I'll be a, he's not a starting quarterback, but he's been a backup.
38:31
[SPEAKER_02]: He's been a veteran.
38:32
[SPEAKER_02]: He's bounce around the sleeves.
38:34
[SPEAKER_02]: He knows what to do.
38:35
[SPEAKER_02]: Like this actually could be a scary matchup for this dolphin's defense.
38:41
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, the other part about going more man heavy against a quarterback that can run like Tyrod Taylor's, you really don't want your secondary to turn their back to him either, because that's when he can hurt you the most with a lot of those plays outside of the pocket.
39:01
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, really, and Tyrod Taylor, he's a veteran in this league if you give him enough time in the pocket.
39:11
[SPEAKER_01]: Um, regardless of if the jets are running John Metchi and 80 Mitchell on the outside, uh, and then, you know, the other thing that kind of concerns me in, in this game in particular is when you do have those coverage breakdowns kind of downfield.
39:35
[SPEAKER_01]: you wonder a lot about kind of the safety valves and that's where I think that you can get hurt kind of the most here is with breeze haul out of the backfield with Mason Taylor.
39:49
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, kind of those guys more, more than anything.
39:54
[SPEAKER_01]: Cause those are the guys that are gonna be able to find the soft spot of the zone more likely than not if you're not able to generate that pressure.
40:05
[SPEAKER_01]: But as mobile as Tyrad Taylor is at this point, he's also not quite as big as some of the other guys that you've seen in the last few weeks.
40:17
[SPEAKER_01]: So I would be more worried about getting your hands on him in the first place and less worried about, you know, what happens if he breaks the tackle because as mobile as he is,
40:34
[SPEAKER_01]: If you can't bring down five, 11, you know, 210 pound Tyrod Taylor, you know, there's, there's some issues in the first place.
40:49
[SPEAKER_00]: All right, so I see I, I hear what you're saying there, but I see that a little bit different where you talk about that shorter mobile quarterback and I don't think it's as much about sacking it.
41:02
[SPEAKER_00]: Right, I don't,
41:04
[SPEAKER_00]: making him uncomfortable in that pocket, right, creating a cage type rush that doesn't give him those escape lanes.
41:13
[SPEAKER_00]: Not necessarily just letting him sit back there and play from the pocket, but not getting over aggressive, getting undisciplined with your rush lanes.
41:22
[SPEAKER_00]: We've seen Zeeke Biggers be used a little more in passing downs, right?
41:27
[SPEAKER_00]: Get some of those big guys up there that can get those, get those hands up, kind of condense
41:34
[SPEAKER_00]: But you know, make him still beat you from the pocket, stay in those zone defenses like you said, if you do that, Tyrod Taylor is very experienced.
41:42
[SPEAKER_00]: He's going to know where his check downs are, but if you're in those zone coverages and you can condense his pocket, get him to check it down, right, then you can get two, three guys rallying up to tackle breeze, all tackle Mason Taylor and, you know, limit those games, right, it's going to.
41:58
[SPEAKER_00]: it's going to happen.
42:00
[SPEAKER_00]: It just scares me more to, you know, send a corner off the edge or send a lion back or through the A-gap and see him side step that step up.
42:09
[SPEAKER_00]: And then, you know, for every first good is a guy like her soul Douglas has been playing this year, right?
42:15
[SPEAKER_00]: He's lost the step, right?
42:17
[SPEAKER_00]: And we saw that against the Saints when he got beat for the touchdown there.
42:21
[SPEAKER_00]: So anything that we can do that's not going to involve Tyrod Taylor on the run,
42:26
[SPEAKER_00]: and somebody running away from one of our defensive backs, that's what I'm going to be looking me try to do.
42:31
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, and the thing is we're talking more so about this past rush in the passing game because the Dolphins deepens as proven at least since we gave that they could stop the run very early.
42:43
[SPEAKER_02]: And if the game script is the same as like the Panthers,
42:47
[SPEAKER_02]: as the jets against the commanders, against the Panthers, against the Saints, and even the bills if they stop the run, the jets are going to be looking to pass the ball a lot, like a lot, like early on, if the jets cannot run the ball effectively, they are going to pass.
43:06
[SPEAKER_02]: They live in a 11% or 67% of the time.
43:10
[SPEAKER_02]: The Dolphins defense is not good and low in the 11%
43:15
[SPEAKER_02]: The thing is, the jets run inside, they do a lot of insights on they do a lot of gap work, they run in between the A and B gaps around 54% of the time.
43:28
[SPEAKER_02]: You put Zika Bigger's, you put Jordan Phillips, you put Kenneth Grant, like you have those three down defensive tackles on first down maybe even second down, you clock up the holes.
43:38
[SPEAKER_02]: You're going to be in a third and long third and seven, third and six and you're asking Tyra Taylor to pass.
43:45
[SPEAKER_02]: You better make sure the back end is covered.
43:47
[SPEAKER_02]: You better make sure you're able to cage up Tyra Taylor.
43:51
[SPEAKER_02]: Okay, especially early on, you better make sure they're not able to get down the field and score a touchdown.
43:56
[SPEAKER_02]: You can limit them to field goals or just completely shut them down.
44:00
[SPEAKER_02]: At least the dolphins offense has shown early on they can score.
44:04
[SPEAKER_02]: But again, like the second half, they don't score as much.
44:07
[SPEAKER_02]: and we just told you guys, the dolphins deepens in the second half is a literal nightmare, they're abysmal.
44:16
[SPEAKER_02]: So if the dolphins can stop the jets strength which is inside runs, kind of like it was for the commanders, kind of like how it was for the saints, kind of like how it is for the bills and they won that game too.
44:30
[SPEAKER_02]: If they've stopped that, Miami's passing game needs to be on point for the offense and the secondary, the linebackers cannot bite in the past rush needs to get home.
44:43
[SPEAKER_02]: They need to make us coach said they need to make Tyra Taylor uncomfortable where he acts like Marcus Marriota in overtime where he throws an Aaron pass and Jack Jones is able to take it to a big six.
44:55
[SPEAKER_02]: where Tyler Schuff, as an experience as he was, he was driving the saints on that two-point conversion.
45:03
[SPEAKER_02]: The penalty happened.
45:04
[SPEAKER_02]: Mink of Fitzpatrick closes down, picks him off for a pick to which ended up changing the game for the Miami Dolphins.
45:13
[SPEAKER_02]: If that's able to happen, and Miami is able to even win the third quarter, they have a good chance to actually win this game by at least a seven to 10-point margin.
45:28
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
45:28
[SPEAKER_00]: I feel like the last couple of weeks we've talked about winning by a multiple, multiple scores and that's come back to, you know, kind of buddies in the butt.
45:37
[SPEAKER_00]: So I'm not going to certainly not going to predict a multiple score win.
45:42
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm going to predict a score what I am going to predict is something I wanted to predict last week.
45:46
[SPEAKER_00]: You didn't get a chance that it didn't happen.
45:48
[SPEAKER_00]: But someday we got to get a Daniel Brunskel catch, right?
45:54
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
45:55
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
45:57
[SPEAKER_02]: It, it, it could, it could happen.
46:00
[SPEAKER_02]: Okay.
46:01
[SPEAKER_02]: It could happen.
46:02
[SPEAKER_02]: Dars Brownlee, they're starting nickel is out just your tailor.
46:06
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't get that.
46:07
[SPEAKER_01]: We great praise reps in the slot.
46:09
[SPEAKER_02]: Exactly.
46:10
[SPEAKER_02]: I'll get great praise reps in the slot.
46:12
[SPEAKER_02]: Even a two yard three yard hit drop, just have them catch it to get the chains moving.
46:20
[SPEAKER_02]: But you know, outside of that, you know, once they play the judge, they might have to potentially face a Hall of Fame quarterback and Aaron Rogers Monday night in the cold elements of Pittsburgh.
46:35
[SPEAKER_02]: Then you have Joe Burrow coming to town on Sunday night football, prime time game.
46:41
[SPEAKER_02]: They have back to back prime time games.
46:44
[SPEAKER_02]: Then Baker may feel that that book's often just coming
46:52
[SPEAKER_02]: the potential MVP going up to New England facing Drake may.
46:58
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, the dolphins have played bottom of the barrel quarterbacks.
47:02
[SPEAKER_02]: Now they're going up against, you know, above average to elite quarterbacks.
47:07
[SPEAKER_02]: If the dolphins defense can't handle the business and they do the same exact thing as they did up against Marcus mario and commanders Tyler shot and the New Orleans Saints and if the same thing happens against Tyra Taylor and the New York Jets.
47:32
[SPEAKER_02]: really, really bad.
47:33
[SPEAKER_02]: And a lot of questions now, of course, the fans aren't really paying attention to this now, which is why we're telling you this by these metrics, by the film and the pattern, it's going to start getting noticed at least by the bangles game if the same thing happens.
47:54
[SPEAKER_02]: It could potentially put Anthony Weaver at risk.
47:56
[SPEAKER_02]: It could also put Mike McDaniel at risk too.
48:00
[SPEAKER_02]: So they better clean up this operation of against the New York judge.
48:04
[SPEAKER_02]: Gentlemen, what are your thoughts?
48:07
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, I'm actually gonna say that that's a concern, definitely.
48:17
[SPEAKER_01]: But again, I think against better teams, because I do think that there's an element of we can afford to take our foot off the gas against, you know, Marcus Marioa and Tyler Schuck.
48:36
[SPEAKER_01]: Whereas I don't think the approach would be the same in games against teams with better quarterback play.
48:43
[SPEAKER_01]: Like it wasn't versus the bills,
48:47
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think that there's a little bit of that mixed in with it.
48:52
[SPEAKER_01]: Obviously, I think that there's the inherent limitations of the past rush, not being able to get there in four.
49:00
[SPEAKER_01]: And that's, I think if there's anything that's going to be kind of the undoing of the defense, it's going to be that down the stretch.
49:08
[SPEAKER_01]: But I do think accounting for opponent and kind of just the natural, you know, human nature of
49:16
[SPEAKER_01]: you know, we're up 16 nothing at half.
49:20
[SPEAKER_01]: Let's just try not to make mistakes and kind of just just land this plane safely.
49:28
[SPEAKER_01]: So for the defense, that's not necessarily my biggest concern.
49:34
[SPEAKER_01]: I guess really my concern with this is the offense, particularly
49:43
[SPEAKER_01]: the passing game.
49:43
[SPEAKER_01]: We've had Mike McDaniel talk about it.
49:46
[SPEAKER_01]: They've just got to execute and be able to to make those plays down field because what they're doing with Devon H and as great as it is, as special as it is, it's not necessarily the most sustainable offense in the world, at least not in the way that you know, it's going to result in winning football.
50:09
[SPEAKER_01]: So, I mean, they're going to have to figure out ways to get the ball down field and kind of get that passing and going down stretch.
50:20
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I agree.
50:21
[SPEAKER_00]: I was going to go kind of down the same path of, you know, the the opponent you're playing and what you can afford to do.
50:28
[SPEAKER_00]: So, you know, one of the nice things about the way this season is playing out is that even though, you know, we're still not looking at.
50:38
[SPEAKER_00]: playoffs, right?
50:39
[SPEAKER_00]: We've been able to see this team improve from what they started as right there.
50:44
[SPEAKER_00]: And now they're they're winning these games, but they're winning against bad teams, but the the stigma has always been that the dolphins can be the bad teams, but you put them up against a good team and they fall apart.
50:58
[SPEAKER_00]: So the the nice part about
51:01
[SPEAKER_00]: the remainder of this season, and not necessarily because the jets are not a good team, but we will get to see what they look like against good teams as we go on further in this season.
51:13
[SPEAKER_00]: And we will get to see, you know, it is just a situation where we're playing teams that are not as talented and the coaching staff feels like they can back off a little bit and still essentially escape with a win,
51:30
[SPEAKER_00]: Um, you know, it's easy to to bash these game plans, but these games shouldn't have been as close as they were right if you do that if you if you keep the simple stuff simple right you recover on side kick and we're not talking about, you know, how close that game was right just do stuff like that and you can get by with those type of game plan.
51:53
[SPEAKER_00]: So it'll be interesting to see whether
51:56
[SPEAKER_00]: That is, you know, truly how they play it versus better teams, right, when they're, when they're against an Aaron Rogers or Joe Burrow, you know, Baker may field and, you know, Drake may nowadays, right, do they continue to back off in the second half or once they're playing quarterbacks that they feel a little more threatened by, do they continue to heat up through the game and keep that
52:23
[SPEAKER_00]: At least keep the foot on the pedal a little longer in the game, right?
52:27
[SPEAKER_00]: Not going in the half time getting your, you know, a pre-side and oranges and coming out to play some some pre-vent defense, right?
52:34
[SPEAKER_00]: Let's play deep into the third quarter, maybe into the fourth quarter, before we feel comfortable with a win against, you know, better quality teams.
52:43
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, well, let's, let's definitely hope that is the case where they're able to
52:52
[SPEAKER_02]: you know, make a case for the playoffs, get there and sneak in as a seven seed, not just be in the hunt, but are actually, you know, hunting for wins.
53:06
[SPEAKER_02]: And that's kind of what the dolphins need at this point.
53:09
[SPEAKER_02]: I recall those who sampled cell coach and Eric Stig with us here on scouting the fence part of the Theret's precary podcast feed, also part of the five reason sports network as always y'all go fans.