Latest / The Extra Point / Week 6 Preview | Florida State-Miami, Alabama-Vandy, and more

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Week 6 Preview | Florida State-Miami, Alabama-Vandy, and more · The Extra Point

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What's up y'all? You're listening to the Extra
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Point College football podcast. I'm your host Jacob Car and
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joined as always by my Co host Daniel Hammock.
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Daniel, this week on the episode we're going to go through our in
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season 4 quarters of our show just like football.
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In the first quarter. We're going to talk about one
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thing we learned, including some teams that won on the road this
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weekend and what's the state of Mississippi dealing with college
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football. In the second quarter of this
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episode, we're going to two questions we have heading into
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this week. I want to talk about some parody
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that's going on. Who in the world is going to win
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the SEC? What do we think about Georgia?
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What do we think about Miami and Florida State heading into this
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week? That's coming up in the second
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quarter. At halftime, we'll go through
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our BCS like rankings, our extra point rankings.
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The XPR will update that for you with our top 25.
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The third quarter, we'll talk about three games we've got our
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eye on this Week 3U matchups to watch.
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And then in the fourth quarter, it all comes out of the fourth
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quarter, we'll talk about Week 6's best games, the four picks
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against the spread. That's what's coming up in the
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next hour or so. Daniel, how you doing?
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Great dude, this is what it's all about.
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Excited for week 6. Huge week 5.
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Huge viewership numbers coming off this past weekend.
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He knew that, you know, this is, I know Fox gets a lot of crap.
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I thought this is interesting. This is why fit fox took the new
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window is it's still hard to go and compete with ABC in that in
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that prime time window. And you saw that Georgia Bama
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did 2,000,000 more than the than the white out.
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But viewership overall highest number since week 1.
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It's 4 million on a Friday night game, which is kind of crazy
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between FSU and Virginia. So lot of people are watching
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the sport which you and I are fans of.
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It's the best sport in the world.
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Come on, pull up a chair. Enjoy Daniel, as we we we kick
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things off first quarter this episode.
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What's one thing you learned after watching the games this
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past weekend? Yeah, one thing I learned is the
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SEC is going to run through the state of Mississippi.
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OK. Some people watched obviously
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the, the big game, Georgia and Alabama, which of course, every
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year that's a monumental matchup.
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It seems like Georgia is just going to cede to Alabama every
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time unless they play maybe in a national championship game.
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It is what it is. But the I think because of that,
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that magnitude of that game, some people may have, I don't, I
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don't want to say devalued, but maybe have, you know, like the
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shine has come off of that Ole Miss win versus LSU, which was
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huge. And Mississippi State taking a
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very, very good Tennessee team to double was double overtime.
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They say at least overtime. I can't remember if it was
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double or not. But that being said, like that,
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that to me, I was more impressed with Mississippi State and like,
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because it doesn't make me think less of Tennessee in that game
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because Tennessee is who we think they are as far as I think
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they they have a really high ceiling and other floor, I don't
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think is as low as people had expected.
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So with the change of quarterback, I think they
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improved with change of quarterback.
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So Mississippi State, reason I say the SEC runs through there,
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not necessarily that you're going to get the national
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champion. You might.
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Ole Miss is looking very, very good.
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They're #3 in our XPR. We'll get to that in a little
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bit. Look at the remaining schedules
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for both of these teams. They have a lot to say.
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You've got Mississippi State against Texas A&M this week.
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You've got them playing Texas in a couple of weeks, you got them
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playing Ole Miss. Of course, towards the end of
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the year, they also host Georgia and they just showed Tennessee
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that it's an easy place to play. So Georgia going on the road
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there. We talked about how Georgia
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doesn't have as many Rd. tests or they're just different than
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they were last year. One that nobody's talking about
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is Mississippi State. Georgia, of course, went to
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Tennessee and goes to Auburn in a couple weeks.
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Everybody's got that. Mississippi State one is an
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afterthought. Conversely, Ole Miss, of course,
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they just played old, they played LSU, but they play
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Georgia in Athens in a few weeks, they play Oklahoma,
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another top ten team in our XPR, and then of course they play
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Mississippi State at the end of the year.
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So I think both of those schedules, you could do that
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with just about every SEC schedule.
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So I do understand what I'm saying, but I think that both of
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those teams are going to have a hand in what the SEC does this
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year one way or the other if they help determine the SEC.
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And obviously that's going to lead to potential national, you
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know, national championship implications as well.
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I love it. The state of Mississippi going
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to have this is 2014. Remember those those first CFP
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rankings in 2014 having both teams in the top four.
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It's great. Daniel, one thing I was this.
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Is the first year that Georgia Tech since 2014 has been 5 and O
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so you know, it does feel like 2014 a little bit.
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Who knows A. Little bit my one thing I
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learned, it's hard to win on the road in college football.
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So I'm going to have three takeaways here.
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One, you've got teams that went on the road and lost.
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I think we did hit the under on Chris Falika's over under 3 1/2
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ranked teams to go on the road and lose.
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You had Florida State to Virginia on the road, unranked
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TCU to Arizona State, which I know it was ranked to unranked.
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Arizona State was favored, USC to Illinois.
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You know, Illinois coming off of just getting body bagged by
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Indiana, turns around desperation mode beats USC.
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You had you had some close games, right?
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Like you had Tennessee over Mississippi State, close game on
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the road. Georgia Tech ever Wake Forest
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highway robbery by the refs, but close game on the road.
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And then teams that really impressed you because they won
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the road and won Alabama. You go to Stanford Stadium and
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win Saturday night. It's hard to do that.
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You come out on top like a one point victory is a one point
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victory. You go on the road to win, steal
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away from Georgia, like Oregon. You go to the white out.
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You dominate for most of the game.
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It goes to overtime. You steal, steal that win.
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And then, hey, Ohio State going to Washington kind of beat the
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brakes off of them. You know, it's weird that we're
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five weeks in and it's like, how good is Washington?
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I don't know. But they do what good teams do,
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Daniel. They go on the road and beat
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them. They cover their 9 1/2 point
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spread, kind of looked methodical.
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So yeah, I think it's hard to win in the room in college
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football. And so you see that in losses.
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And then you see I end up being really impressed with wins,
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especially with the lack of depth that all teams have now in
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college football. So it's hard to win on the road.
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You know, if you're losing the road, turn around and come back
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and get, you know, get a win. After that, take your loss and
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keep moving because losses don't mean as much in 2025.
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And you know, if you go on one of the road, it's really
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impressive because, you know, then you get to come back home
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and enjoy a game at home or someone else has to deal with
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your environment. So it's hard to one of the road
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and impress the teams that do. And you know, that's why we see
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teams losing college football. We head into the second quarter.
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Daniel, two thing or two questions we have heading into
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this week. Daniel, what's, what's, what's
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your first question you've got heading into Week 6?
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Yeah, mine is is it's retrospective, but yeah.
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Is this is this a cause for concern for Georgia or should
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this be treated as their one big loss per year?
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Family usually has their number. I think of the the quote from
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what was it The Dark Knight with the Joker is something about
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introduce a little anarchy and upset the established order.
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So this is the established order.
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Alabama Beach, Georgia. If George were to beat Alabama,
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I think people would have taken notice for Georgia, the lose.
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I don't think it's so crazy. I don't think that you know, it
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upsets anybody's, you know, thought process.
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I mean, I'm sure the Georgia fans were upset Saturday night,
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but you look and it's like it it's not like if I don't know
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Auburn Beach, Georgia or like Florida Beach, Georgia, I think
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you have to change how you think about Georgia.
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You have to change you know, who like what's your expectations of
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them are? If Tennessee would have been
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them a couple weeks ago, even though we see Tennessee as a a
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formidable, you know, strong, you know, top ten team in the
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XPR or, you know, just outside, I think that's something you got
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to consider like OK, is Georgia, did they take a step down?
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You know, are they are they? But they kind of seem like
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they're right where they're still supposed to be.
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We're going to have to see how they react coming out of this.
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But I I look at that game and I wonder like, is this, you know,
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cause for concern? Obviously, we've watched all of
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these Georgia and Alabama games very closely and it seems like
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Georgia kind of tries the they get out of their comfort zone
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and try to do things differently and it is usually blown up in
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their face one way or another. Whether that's, you know, a fake
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punt would you know back in was a 2018 or whenever that was or
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you know, this this year with on 4th down going hurry up instead
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of, you know, letting them review the previous play.
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Didn't see that Gunner Stockton perhaps got the first down and
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then maybe set up your best play possible to run on 4th and short
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to then, you know, eventually advance towards a touchdown.
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I think that, you know, you definitely have to kind of look
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at it and say, all right, what? Let's see if this is a big if
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George had gotten blown out, I think I'd be leaning more
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towards this is cause for concern. 3 point loss with some
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shots in the foot. I'm leaning more towards this
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is, you know, Georgia's one loss for the year that they're going
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to use to kind of rally themselves back.
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So a lot of football left. I think I want to answer your
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question and kind of go into my first question, which is, is
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this the most parody we've had in the sport since 2007?
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I've been reluctant to admit that changes are creating
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parody. I think that the people are not
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acknowledging the right changes that are causing the parody,
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right? A12 team playoff has not created
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any more parody. I was just talking with a friend
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this morning on look like I think more teams can get to the
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playoff and more teams can beat other teams.
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You know, like I, I feel more like let me saw last year, Vandy
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and Bama, Alabama beats Georgia. They're going to lose to Vandy.
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Like you're going to see more of those games in the regular
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season, I think. But those teams, you know,
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Arizona State almost beat Tex in the playoff last year.
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They were never going to go and beat Texas and then Ohio State
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and then, you know, Penn State, Notre Dame in the championship,
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right? Like you got to win multiple of
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this games in the playoff. But I do think it's creating
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more parity in the regular season.
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And it's the transfer portals. What's done it is especially
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these top teams, their their depths been cut out from under
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them. And so you have very young teams
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that are going to lose more games.
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And I think George is in this category.
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And Kirby Smart talked about a preseason of this is a team
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that, you know, he's got over 50% first and second year
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players that are having to grow up and learn some of these
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lessons. And look, Alabama took their
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took their lumps in week 1 and turned around.
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Everybody called for the end of the dynasty.
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And I mean, we tried to warn y'all by Week 5 they're beating
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George Ann Athens that there is no cause for concert because
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it's a long season and they had the opportunity to correct those
10:40
mistakes and they looked like an extremely focused team on
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Saturday night. Daniel, to answer your question,
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I do have a stat from Bill Conley, a kind of the analytics
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king college football. He does a post game win
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expectancy every week. And I like paying attention to
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it because it shows how fluky a win was or wasn't because it
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takes into account like basically full game stats.
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You put those stats into the computer.
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How often does that team still win the game?
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Daniel Alabama's postgame what expectancy on Saturday night was
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19.6%. So if you put the same stats in
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the game into a, you know, computer, basically Alabama wins
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that game two times out of 10. The adjusted margin for the game
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was, I'm looking here, I think it was Georgia by yeah, Georgia
11:23
by 7 is like if you enter the stats on a computer, the result
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you get most the time is Georgia and A7 point win.
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Part of that factoring in is what's really impressive about
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Alabama Saturday night was that their success rate did not match
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how often they converted on 3rd down.
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Like so it sees that as fluky and that your your average
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success rate throughout the game was nowhere close to what how
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you actually performed on 3rd down like converting those.
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And it was impressive. Ty Simpson looked methodical.
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So look at your Georgia. I think it stinks because it's
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Alabama and you're going to have people wondering, is this an
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Alabama problem again? I think you could say this for a
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lot of teams, Daniel, if you change one play in the game, are
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you talking about the problems you're currently addressing with
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this team? I think if you're smart, yes.
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Because here's the real problems for Georgia is they have to find
12:13
a pass rush. They could not get to Ty Simpson
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and it's been a problem all season, especially with four.
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They're having to get creative and it's still not happening.
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They're not getting to the pass through.
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I think that's a problem that if you're looking at Georgia and
12:25
saying, OK, what teams can sit back there and wait for
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receivers to get open because they've got a shot to be
12:30
Georgia. Tennessee did it right and they
12:32
had a shot to be Georgia. Then you take a look at some of
12:34
the good stuff and say, hey, they ran the ball for 250 yards.
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Almost like if you're Georgia and you're doing that, you
12:39
expect to win the football game. So I'm not concerned about
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Georgia going forward. I think like these top teams
12:45
were very critical of when top teams underperform.
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So this is still a team that I think has a tended to floor.
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So they they've got one of those losses.
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So I think they're going to lose more time, but I'm not concerned
12:59
about Georgia getting to where they want to go this season.
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Danny, what's your second question?
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It kind of hit my with parity there.
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What's your second question? Yeah, you mentioned in that, you
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know, about like when a team gets to the playoff, you know,
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can they, can they go on the run?
13:14
Can they make, can they win those games?
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You mentioned Arizona State with, you know, if they were to
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beat Texas, which they had them on the ropes, could they go and
13:22
beat Ohio State? Texas could have gone and beaten
13:25
Ohio State. Do we think that Arizona State
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could be in the same, in the same realm as them?
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We both agree, no. My question is in that light,
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who's the bigger national championship threat, Miami or
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Florida State? Obviously we get the game this
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week of them playing each other. So we'll see the individual
13:44
matchup itself of who is going to come out on top.
13:47
And I'm very excited to break this one down.
13:49
But I think, you know, both of these teams have a strong chance
13:53
of making the playoff. They both have a strong chance
13:55
in the ACC, of course, Florida State's O and one in the ACC
13:58
already against Virginia. But we're we're both, you know,
14:01
my, my expectations. Florida State's going to be in
14:03
the ACC championship game. Let's let's see this thing play
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out and, you know, see how these things go.
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But once they get there, which of these teams as constructed
14:14
could go on some type of a run? And you know, for me, it's like
14:18
they they're so they're similar, but different.
14:20
They're both built on the transfer portal.
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They both are making the lines of scrimmage a big deal.
14:29
Of course, the floor state with the Gus Miles on offensive
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system are more of a, you know, like, let's let's run the ball
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and let's really ball control this thing.
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You've got more of a cerebral like pocket passing quarterback
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with Carson Beck on the other side.
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So it's like he can make those throws.
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If you're down in the game, you feel better about him maybe
14:49
bringing you back. Florida State may be more of a
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front running type team. They get up on you and then they
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kind of like stop you from catching up to them because they
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bleed the clock. They keep possession of the
15:01
ball. So I'm interested to see like,
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of course, everything comes down to matchups.
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Part of me is think, you know, part of me leans on, oh, yeah,
15:08
well, Carson Beck would be able to do his thing, you know,
15:12
because he's been battle tested before he gets to the playoffs.
15:14
He's not scared of any situation because he's been in them all.
15:18
The other part of me looks at like, you know, this this
15:23
Florida State team and it's like, does this system that they
15:27
would run allow them to catch teams by surprise each week
15:30
because it is so different from what they would face otherwise?
15:34
Or is this something that is beatable if you just have better
15:37
players like we saw happen at Gus Mel's on at Auburn at times.
15:41
So yeah, it's more of an open-ended one.
15:43
But that something I'm I'm kind of looking at and I'm excited to
15:46
watch how they match up on the field this week.
15:49
Oh yeah, like this week we'll at least we'll get a picture of how
15:53
they match up, which I'm excited to talk about.
15:56
You know my last question, who plays for the SEC Championship
15:59
in Atlanta? I mean, at this point this
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season, I'm like I wrote down 8 teams that I think are capable
16:07
of reaching and winning the ACC or the SEC Championship and two
16:11
more that I think have a path that's 10 of the 16 teams.
16:18
Like, I mean, I have Georgia, Alabama, Texas, Oklahoma,
16:23
Tennessee, Ole Miss, LSU, Texas A&M is all teams that can win
16:27
it. I think of those, I might move
16:29
LSU to have a path. I think those offensive issues
16:31
are just not going away. And Vandy in Missouri have a
16:34
path with their schedule like where they're undefeated to this
16:38
point and the schedule looks pretty decent after that.
16:42
I'll ask you, Daniel, like if you had to pick right now, which
16:45
two teams are playing in Atlanta?
16:47
Who are they? Yeah, that's tough.
16:48
I mean, these teams are going to play each other, so that's kind
16:52
of where it's like who can avoid, you know, land mines on
16:57
the schedule. You know, Alabama plays
16:59
Tennessee, Ole Miss plays Georgia, Texas AM plays Texas.
17:02
You know Oklahoma plays Texas. Yeah.
17:05
Texas plays Georgia, so it's very much going to be a I don't
17:11
want to call it necessarily a round Robin, but there's there's
17:13
going to be, I think that the teams I'm, I'm willing to
17:17
eliminate are similar to you, where I think that, you know, I,
17:20
I'd have a hard time seeing LSU with what we've seen so far, get
17:24
on that run and be a viable candidate.
17:28
I think they're going to at least drop one more game on
17:31
their schedule. And Oklahoma, I'm worried about
17:35
Matir being out, especially at least for the Texas game.
17:39
I don't think it's going to hurt them playoff wise, but SEC
17:43
championship wise, I'd have AI have a concern.
17:47
I'm really Ole Miss has shown me so much so far this year.
17:50
I know. I really think Ole Miss has a
17:53
great shot to be one of those teams.
17:55
I think that either Georgia or Alabama and then maybe Ole Miss
17:59
is going to be in in there, but we'll see.
18:04
I wrote down four teams because I, I can't decide.
18:07
My lean is that one of them won't be Georgia because with
18:10
the way I think everybody's going to have two losses, I
18:12
think that's kind of like how just the SEC is.
18:16
There's a lot of parity in this SEC this year, which is, which
18:19
is nuts. Alabama has this head to head
18:21
one over Georgia. You know what, when one of their
18:23
losses was, you know, if they're only going to lose twice in the
18:25
season, maybe they lose 2 conference games.
18:27
But now you've got that head to head over a team.
18:30
My, my lead would be my lean is Alabama versus Texas.
18:34
I see we're going to see Texas this week.
18:35
We're going to talk about them. My next team right there is like
18:38
Ole Miss in Georgia. Like do do one of these teams,
18:41
you know, if Ole Miss beats Georgia, obviously then they
18:43
have a head to head as well and their schedule looks decent at
18:46
that point. But yeah, I, I don't know if
18:49
I've gone into like a week 6 where I could like list 8 teams.
18:55
I wouldn't be surprised for playing in Atlanta and then I'm
18:58
having a hard time narrowing that down.
19:01
Like I can't remember times this.
19:02
I've been like covering or watching college football as a
19:05
fan seriously for a long time that we couldn't get like almost
19:09
halfway through the season and be have a really good idea of.
19:12
This is also only the second year of having Oklahoma and
19:15
Texas and both of those are in that group.
19:18
So like. Totally fair.
19:20
Just to keep in mind like they didn't just add, you know, like
19:24
South Carolina and Arkansas. Like in 1992, this was you got
19:28
Oklahoma and Texas and Oklahoma is playing like Oklahoma.
19:32
So it's fun. It's going to be a great
19:34
second-half of the season. It will be all right.
19:37
Let's go into halftime. Daniel.
19:38
We've got our updated XPR top five, which for watching on
19:42
YouTube. You can see it on screen.
19:44
If you're not, you can follow us at the extra point upon
19:47
Instagram. You can follow Daniel at the
19:49
South, Daniel on Twitter, me at Jacob Karns, the K on Twitter,
19:53
all linked down the episode description.
19:56
But if you're watching top five, I'll go through new number one
19:59
this week. We've got Oregon at one, which
20:01
we've had them at one for a couple weeks on our personal
20:03
rankings, Ohio State of two. Ole Miss at 3, Miami at 4,
20:07
Oklahoma at 5 And you've got to rag you a little bit, all right.
20:12
This has been this has been a fight between you and I for
20:14
years now. All right.
20:16
And if you'd like to see my personal ballot, happy to send
20:19
it to you. You know, you send me yours and
20:21
I put this all together to to get our aggregate.
20:23
You've got George over Alabama and your personal rankings.
20:26
They just played in Athens on Saturday.
20:28
I'd like an answer on that one as well as what you corrected it
20:32
a little bit. You've got USC ahead of Indiana,
20:36
who is ahead of Illinois, although Indiana beat Illinois,
20:40
who just beat USC. What's what's what's going on
20:42
here, Daniel? What's going on?
20:44
First of all, the Big 10 is insane.
20:49
Like, I don't know, we got to go a couple weeks because they play
20:52
like the schedule that they play.
20:56
We've got to see some teams play each other, I guess for me to
21:00
build. OK, OK.
21:01
We did. But what I said last week was
21:05
going into it, we're either going to learn that USC is a
21:08
contender or we're going to have more questions.
21:11
And I think we have more questions because Illinois won.
21:14
If you see, you would have won, then we could have just thrown
21:16
Illinois to the side and throw them away.
21:17
I almost did by accident. I forgot about them briefly.
21:20
They're back there in my top 25, of course, but that shellacking
21:25
they got from Indiana is enough for me to be down on Illinois
21:29
also. I just Indiana, I've seen it
21:33
against Illinois where they dominated.
21:37
I just, I, I want to believe, you know, I want to see like
21:43
they haven't played like a legitimate opponent yet.
21:46
The manner in which they beat Illinois is all I'm basing their
21:50
ranking on. So I'm well, I am fine with
21:54
admitting that these are imperfect and they are going to
21:56
be imperfect for a little bit. I have no problem.
21:59
The Alabama Georgia thing, I mean, look to your your Bill
22:01
Connolly stat. As far as like both the way I
22:04
looked at it, yes, those head they have a head to head win,
22:06
but I also square in Florida State.
22:08
They're like Florida State has a head to head when I'll ever
22:10
Alabama. But do I think Alabama is better
22:12
than Florida State? I kind of still do.
22:16
Like am I going to let that chain me down for the rest of
22:18
the season? Not necessarily.
22:20
If they get a loss, I put them into a different pile.
22:22
If they're undefeated, I kind of hold them in a little bit higher
22:25
regard. So Alabama having one loss, I
22:29
feel like I have the liberty to move them back and forth.
22:31
They did just beat Georgia at home.
22:33
Adjusted win percentage, all that kind of stuff, you got to
22:35
factor in. Do I think that if they played
22:38
again, Georgia would have a chance to beat them?
22:40
Yes, I do. Do I think that Georgia has a
22:44
better chance of going unscathed the rest of the way rather than
22:48
Alabama? I do think that I think that
22:51
Georgia has a higher floor than Alabama, but I'm, I'm open to
22:56
criticism. I, I think that all of these
22:58
teams are confusing. Like it's just I at least put a
23:01
lot of thought into it. I'm not an AP voter.
23:03
That's like, does anybody really care?
23:07
The sun, you know, it's out today.
23:09
So anyways, thankfully you can. I mean look, disagree with you
23:14
all you want. Daniel, feel free to do it.
23:16
Feel free to grow. I have, I have the important
23:20
things right. I mean, Oregon's number one for
23:22
me, like I have that, you know, so they're still in the playoff,
23:26
everybody, they're still in the playoff.
23:27
Relax. I'm I'm closer to putting Ohio
23:30
State one even after or I expect they're already going.
23:34
We're going to go on the road and beat Penn State, Ohio State
23:38
beating Washington, kind of dismantling them.
23:39
They've looked really impressive.
23:41
But to me, there's a clear one and two right now in the country
23:44
as far as who's looked the most impressive and it's Ohio State
23:46
and Oregon in my opinion. I think Miami's right there at
23:50
three. I think after that, I mean, like
23:53
you could pretty much give me any order of teams like 4 to
23:59
like 11-12 and I'll kind of be like, yeah, sure.
24:04
So yeah, interesting there. Again, this is this is where
24:08
it's funny. If you use transitive property,
24:10
this is where I'll agree with you.
24:11
If you use transitive property, then you have to say like, OK,
24:15
Bama beat Georgia, they should be ahead.
24:18
Florida State beat Alabama, Virginia beat Florida State, NC
24:22
State beat Virginia, and someone crazy beat and beat NC State.
24:28
Was it ODU? Old Dominion?
24:30
Yeah, I think. So.
24:32
But no, no, no, they beat Virginia Tech.
24:34
But did Virginia Tech beat? I don't.
24:37
Know NC State, I don't know, something crazy like that.
24:39
But my thing is when teams have the same record and you have a
24:43
recent result, like I'm, I'm at this point, OK with you moving
24:46
Alabama ahead of Florida State because both teams have a loss
24:49
and because it's like where your team's at in week 6.
24:52
Because to me, rankings have always been about who.
24:54
What have you done for me recently, right.
24:57
And so I was like, OK, yeah, Alabama and Georgia are the same
24:59
record, but Alabama just won in Athens.
25:03
I'm like, OK, like that's giving me the data I need to.
25:06
Bam is the head of Georgia. Even if you have them ahead of
25:08
Florida State, because to me it was like, oh, it's five weeks
25:10
ago and they're a different team now, which which I think they
25:14
are. We'll see.
25:16
Right. Maybe this week things will look
25:18
the same and maybe George is not that good.
25:20
We'll find out near the rest of the season.
25:22
Be sure to check out the XPR again on our Instagram, on our
25:26
Twitter accounts, which are all linked down below there.
25:29
Daniel, Third quarter, three games, we're not going to pick,
25:34
but three games we've got our eye on this weekend.
25:36
Yeah, I'm, there's a it was tough when we're picking the
25:40
games to pick because I feel like there's 2 clear options.
25:43
And then we had a bunch that we were like, all right.
25:47
Yeah. Does this one deserve to does
25:49
this one deserve to? So anyways, my three games, one
25:52
of the ones that I actually didn't even have that you
25:54
mentioned, I did not see this line until today Cincinnati
25:58
hosting Iowa State. In my head, it's like, OK, so I
26:03
would say probably like a, a four to seven point, you know,
26:06
line, move on with your life. And Cincinnati is favored by 1
26:13
1/2 points. And I just don't.
26:14
I mean, I have not watched Cincinnati since that first game
26:18
against Nebraska. Watch that game intently because
26:21
it was really all I had. And then I moved on with my life
26:24
with Cincinnati. I was like, OK, whatever.
26:26
It's like they're not a contender.
26:28
They're no reason to like plus they're three and one.
26:30
They're want to know in the Big 12 and they're playing my
26:34
champion of the of the Big 12, which is Iowa State and Rocco
26:37
Beck having a Goodyear they 5 and I mean, they're they're
26:41
rolling. They're most wins of any team
26:44
this year so, so far. But I don't know, man.
26:47
They're going on the road, Cincinnati Nippert Stadium.
26:50
And are they going to be able to have enough to do that on the
26:53
road? Like, yeah.
26:54
Anyways, you see something like that.
26:56
You're wondering what Vegas is keyed in on, what these numbers
27:00
are saying all the like, I'm looking at weather.
27:03
Weather looks good, like really trying to figure it out.
27:06
Second game I'm looking at is one that was really considered
27:10
to be on our card this week, which was Virginia and
27:13
Louisville. Virginia hosting Louisville
27:15
after that big win in Charlottesville last week for
27:18
Virginia against Florida State, the probably the greatest
27:23
rushing of the field I've ever seen, or at least the fastest.
27:27
Louisville also coming off of a big win against Pitt.
27:29
I mean, that was like a very much a back and forth game.
27:32
And there was a couple of times where a lesser team or a team
27:36
that didn't have like the mental toughness would have lost that
27:39
game and Louisville pulled it out.
27:43
Man, I was impressed with Louisville last week.
27:45
Been impressed with him so far this year for definitely in play
27:48
for the ACC championship. Of course, Virginia's two and O
27:51
in the ACC. So, you know, we we talked about
27:54
parity across the league. These are both teams that are
27:57
like, you know, in the running Virginia already with that big
28:00
win against Florida State. Do we think that they can go
28:03
wire wire? Probably not.
28:04
Louisville's more of that team. I think that is built to maybe
28:07
last. And they're they're they're
28:09
hosting Virginia. And then the third game I'm
28:12
watching is one that I I had lobbied, I stood on the table
28:16
for. I got pushed off of that table
28:18
by you multiple times wanting to watch Mississippi State, Texas A
28:22
and it because as I said in my preamble, the SEC is going to
28:27
run through the state of Mississippi.
28:28
I think very much this game is in that realm.
28:31
Texas A&M goes to Mississippi State and so that's just one
28:36
that I think you've got a you've got a circle or excuse me, they
28:40
don't get to Mississippi State. I have a thing written.
28:44
All the home teams are on the left and the way teams are on
28:46
the right and I've mixed it up on that one.
28:48
Excuse me everybody, Mississippi State's going into Kyle Field.
28:52
Texas A&M nonetheless, A&M is A2 touchdown favorite.
28:55
Mississippi State's only loss was last week against Tennessee
28:59
in double overtime. I don't necessarily think
29:02
Mississippi State's going to come in and win this game, but I
29:04
think they're going to give them some trouble.
29:06
They are a team that has not given up, nor that should they.
29:09
But I'm saying a lot of teams when they play, a lot of times
29:12
when teams play Mississippi State, they're counting on
29:14
playing a team that's not going to fight very hard.
29:17
They their season's probably over with Texas A and is coming
29:21
into this game probably not fully.
29:24
I'm not saying they're not focused on Mississippi State,
29:27
but it's not a rivalry. It's not a team they think
29:29
about, You know, any any week other than this week.
29:32
They don't do any extra prep beforehand.
29:35
They just came out off that very emotional big win against
29:38
Auburn, which we picked perfectly by the way.
29:40
We said that Auburn with the points 6 1/2, they win by 6.
29:45
It was perfect. I mean, we got lucky.
29:48
We. Did not get lucky.
29:49
That was a good. Thing that was a blowout.
29:53
That scored a night pick. That's those time of games.
29:56
Those games get ugly and that's what I expected.
29:59
It was going to be a weird score place.
30:03
Keep an eye on this Mississippi State team this year and it's
30:07
the team that everybody counted out before the year They're
30:09
coming in. Playing with house money at
30:11
Texas A&M is going to have to make sure they don't let them
30:15
ruin their season. 14 1/2 points spread.
30:18
I would probably lean on taking the points.
30:19
I know it's on the road now, but anyways, that's the last game
30:24
I'm watching. What?
30:25
What about the your three games, your 3U matchups of the week?
30:29
Jacob I. Love the way we've added this.
30:31
I love talking uniforms. You know, the algorithm has now
30:34
given me several uniform accounts, some of which I here's
30:37
the thing and good uniform accounts because there's some
30:40
frauds out there. I don't mean to just trashing
30:42
people, but there's a certain uniform account that is a lot of
30:45
college football stuff that if you just wear a different
30:49
uniform, it's like the fire emojis.
30:52
Like isn't this sick? Like you were the awful Michigan
30:55
State uniforms of like the state in law, You know what I mean?
30:58
Like, you know, or the Florida swamp green uniforms, like
31:01
they'd wear those and they'd be like fire #1 uniswag.
31:04
I didn't mean to say their name, but you know, Uniform of the
31:07
week. Sorry dude.
31:11
Anyway, silly games get silly prizes, right?
31:14
That's they they did it to themselves.
31:16
Kind of be nice here anyway. Look have some self respect.
31:22
Not every different uniform is good.
31:24
Most of them are bad. And if you did a top ten
31:28
uniforms of every week you know it should be every week.
31:31
Probably is like 1 Michigan, 2 USC, like 3 LSU.
31:36
Like every single week. This copy paste because these
31:39
teams have good uniforms. If it ain't broke, they'll fix
31:41
it anyway. This week 3U matchups, I'm
31:45
excited to watch Florida and Texas.
31:47
We're going to talk about the game, but should be a really
31:49
clean. I will say we were talking about
31:52
this like of teams that wear all white on the road.
31:54
I've gone back and forth with, like I say, unitards where it's
31:57
all one color. White's my exception, especially
32:00
with teams that do it traditionally.
32:02
So a Penn State, a Texas, because it's a great canvas for
32:05
a uniform matchup, because the other team can wear bold colors
32:08
and it's going to look good because you're in all white.
32:10
Florida's wearing their classic orange blue white, which is
32:13
their best combo. Houston versus Texas Tech
32:17
Houston's uniform update has been very clean.
32:21
Excuse me, Texas Tech's uniform update isn't very clean.
32:23
I hope they're not wearing one of their weird uniforms that day
32:26
with Patrick Mahomes. They're like ice stuff.
32:28
I don't like those at all. I don't know what they're
32:29
wearing, but if they wear something normal on the road,
32:31
Houston is wearing their Oilers inspired like baby blue uniform
32:36
this week. So that should look very cool.
32:40
That's right. And then lastly, Florida State
32:42
versus Miami got my eye on it. This should be an elite uniform
32:46
matchup. I say should be because Florida
32:48
State sometimes, I mean the past, it's just like, why do you
32:51
refuse to wear your elite uniform?
32:54
When teams have an elite uniform, some might say one of
32:57
the best in the sport and choose to not wear it, it really gets
33:00
under my skin. This has a chance and this is a
33:02
great helmet game. You know, like there have been
33:05
so many classic matchups played between Florida State and Miami.
33:08
What I hope this is Daniel, is I hope Miami wears all white or
33:12
green pants, not the orange pants.
33:14
Just not a fan In Florida State wears their classic gold helmet,
33:18
garnet top, gold pants. That's what this should be under
33:22
the lights. It will look amazing if that's
33:24
the case and hope we get a classic game in that one.
33:27
A few more just to mention Georgia and Kentucky.
33:29
Blue and red always looks good. Michigan, Wisconsin, North
33:32
Carolina, Clemson could be a really good 12.
33:35
Great uniforms in that one. Yeah, there's all the other
33:37
three kind of highlighted. Yeah, those are the top three.
33:39
I've got my eye on this, but the Houston one made it because
33:41
they're wearing those baby Blues.
33:43
I think. I'm excited to watch to see
33:44
those in the field in Texas. Texas, something I was going to
33:46
mention with your, your synopsis of uniforms, you I listened
33:53
carefully. You said most of the time when
33:55
somebody wears something new and different, it's bad.
33:59
Most of the time. I would say that's you've got a
34:03
very conservative view of uniforms as in preserve the
34:07
originals, yes, and maybe even throwback to something, a call
34:12
back to something rather than something new and different.
34:16
So like a a progressive view of like a crazy, you know, Michigan
34:20
State, you know, uniform or whatever.
34:22
Or there's been times like Louisville's done some crazy
34:24
looking stuff or whatever, you know, just throwing a random
34:27
team out there, but like them doing a little throwback.
34:30
Even though Houston, I mean, obviously the Oilers were NFL
34:32
team, but doing a throwback to that I am interested because
34:36
those were classic uniforms. Those were great.
34:39
I like that they're kind of honoring that legacy.
34:41
So yeah, I agree man, this is this is good.
34:44
I think that that most, most serious uniform people are the
34:47
same way. So should be a good looking
34:49
week. A different dimension uniform
34:51
action of the week for this past week, week 5, the winner of that
34:55
was Penn State versus Oregon looked elite I love those like
34:59
iridescent numbers that Oregon has in that white jersey where
35:02
it looks green or black in different lights.
35:04
I think it looks sick. I love again, Oregon's one of
35:08
the exceptions were like they were something different every
35:10
week and most of the time it looked really good.
35:12
They they do have exceptions too, though, and those, but I
35:15
love the duck wings and the helmet.
35:17
I know some of their classic helmets look really cool, but
35:19
man, to me, like Oregon is like they're the different team.
35:23
They do the duck wings. Like if I were to have an Oregon
35:25
helmet behind me, I think I don't want one that had the duck
35:27
wings because you know exactly who it is when you see it.
35:29
You know what we need to do a whole episode in the offseason.
35:32
To me the best uniforms in football are the ones where,
35:37
well let me let me clarify this best normal uniforms like non
35:41
alternates are the ones where you know exactly who it is.
35:44
He would take the logos off. You know you and I grew up
35:48
Georgia fans. There's some Georgia fans who
35:49
want Georgia to wear those red pants in the road.
35:51
I am a hard disagree on that. I think they look bad personally
35:57
I don't. I just don't think that old look
35:58
fits the modern template very well.
36:00
Or at least the one they did in 2020 just looked terrible, like
36:02
it didn't look good at all. Jordan, Stripe, all that kind of
36:06
stuff. Yeah, like Jordan, one of these
36:07
teams, though, if like, you take the logo off, you see a red
36:10
helmet with like, red and black numbers, with silver pants with
36:13
that red, black and white pants stripe.
36:15
You know exactly what team it is.
36:16
Like Ohio State, you see the silver, you know what they call
36:21
it Cardinal? I don't know.
36:22
Scarlett, Scarlett in like, Gray.
36:24
Scarlett and Gray. Excuse me, Ohio State pants like
36:28
grey with that helmet stripe. And I know the Buckeyes are kind
36:31
of logo, but like you see that in the pants stripe and yeah,
36:34
you know, it's Ohio State, Michigan, very clear who that
36:37
team is. Those are my favorite uniforms
36:39
where you take the logo away and you just know, looking at it
36:41
like that is that team because it's it's an iconic look.
36:44
Those are the best uniforms in my opinion.
36:46
Anyway, I digress. We headed into the fourth
36:49
quarter. Daniel, 4 best games of the
36:51
week. Sometimes it's hard to pick this
36:53
one of those weeks. We're going to pick four games
36:56
against the spread, starting with a 330.
36:58
We've got Texas going to Gainesville.
37:01
Daniel, this was supposed to be one of the biggest games of the
37:03
year. It's not anymore, but it is
37:06
under a touchdown spread. So we got 4 to favor by 6 1/2.
37:11
This is a trap spot. Both teams off a by.
37:13
Who do you like in Gainesville? Yeah.
37:15
So we're saying it's not, it's not anymore.
37:19
It's not going to be. This is allegedly not a big
37:21
game. Yeah, I don't buy it.
37:23
I don't buy that. Dude.
37:24
This is the SEC. This is Texas's first true SEC
37:29
Rd. test has joined the conference.
37:30
OK, So look at Florida. This whimpering team might be.
37:37
Are they on a backup quarterback?
37:38
Do we know is is? DJ like they look while you're
37:43
talking. OK, you look, I'll filibuster.
37:45
All right, Texas going into this game.
37:47
OK, defense is very good. And when I say very good, I mean
37:51
they might be like shortlist the best in the in the country
37:56
defense. We don't know yet because we got
37:58
to see them play more teams as they play more of these bigger
38:01
teams and and you know, and stop the stop the run, continue to
38:05
to, you know, make plays in the secondary.
38:08
What we will see on the biggest stage if these Texas defense is
38:12
there to stay. Conversely, Flores offense is
38:14
not very good even when DJ Lagway is there.
38:18
I will say it being less than a touchdown spread.
38:21
Vegas knows about going on the road.
38:23
The SEC, you haven't seen Florida's best shot.
38:27
They haven't fired their coach yet.
38:29
Lagway is playing. He's playing.
38:32
OK, So you've got these guys experienced quarterback, Texas
38:35
Blue Florida out last year in Boston.
38:38
So getting getting them in Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.
38:42
My biggest concern Billy Napier in the play calling because if
38:47
he can play call, if he can just call a clean game or have
38:49
someone else do it and just get the ball to Jaden Ball, your
38:53
best player. Don't have your injury prone
38:56
quarterback drop back more than 50 times in the game.
39:00
Feed your running backs who are pretty good.
39:03
This alleged good offensive line that we've been told about that
39:06
has two all SEC players, potentially an all American at
39:09
centre, like run the ball, hand them the ball and like establish
39:15
the run. It's going to be tough.
39:17
You might have to punt in this game.
39:18
Guess what? You've been punting all season.
39:20
Establish the run. Do your best to do that.
39:23
I'm pumping them up because I'm picking Florida.
39:27
I'm taking Florida with the points.
39:29
They're going to lose this game because Texas better.
39:31
Texas going to play better defense down the stretch.
39:34
Arch has not fully shown us a big game.
39:38
We're still concerned if he's hurt or not.
39:40
His accuracy's definitely been off.
39:41
We've got some Texas friends. We've talked to them and we try
39:44
to be, you know, they're candid about, you know, his struggles.
39:47
It's not this all or nothing. It's more like, hey, if he could
39:50
fine tune it a little bit, we think he'd be great.
39:53
I think that they still have that trajectory, like you
39:56
mentioned, to win the SEC, be in the playoff, do all those kinds
39:59
of things. It starts with a win in
40:00
Gainesville, but it's not going to come easy.
40:03
There's going to be some, you know, blood, sweat and tears
40:06
that are going to be part of the payment for this game.
40:09
And I think 6 1/2 is too much. I think Florida with the points
40:15
loses this game. But I'm going to, I'm going to
40:17
middle it like we did with with Auburn and.
40:21
And Texas A&M last week. I'm going to try not to get
40:23
burned by doing this too much, but I am taking Florida at home
40:26
with points. I like a underdog at home with
40:29
points in the SEC. Give me the 6 1/2 points.
40:32
Yeah, just seeing the home teams this year are 5454% against the
40:36
spread. That's just not wins.
40:39
It's against the spread too. So good.
40:42
Good. It's been a trend this year.
40:42
Good pick, maybe 55. I don't know.
40:44
It's enough where it's, I know it sounds like not a lot, but in
40:47
the betting world that is a trend. 10% difference.
40:51
If it's just 5% one way, it's 10%.
40:53
That's right. You know total.
40:54
Florida and Texas which which offense can find explosive place
40:58
if you can tell me that right now it's how he's going to win
40:59
the game. Which team can convert on 3rd
41:01
down. I know this is like I could just
41:04
say that for any of these games, true as a true as analysis, but
41:08
you're talking about both of these teams are out to the top
41:10
103rd down conversions for the year so far.
41:14
I think the easy answer to both questions is Texas as far as
41:18
like, which offense do I trust to figure it out?
41:21
I think it's Texas, but we haven't seen it yet.
41:25
I still lean the Texas offense figures it out.
41:27
Is the Swamp going to be on full throat, right?
41:30
Like they're, you know, they're on the board talking about who's
41:34
going to be the next head coach. Like, are they ready to welcome
41:37
Texas in and take this seriously and go ruin Texas this season?
41:41
What version of the Swamp do we get?
41:43
Will will Texas be able to run the ball against Florida?
41:46
Texas so far has not been great running the football.
41:50
Can they find it on the road against Florida?
41:52
I I'd again, I'd love to find out.
41:56
To me, Daniel like the the glaring mismatch is the Florida
42:00
offense against the Texas defense.
42:02
But again, if I mean, I thought Josh paid asked a good question
42:05
last night. He said if what's Florida's
42:07
record with Texas schedule so far and he's like probably the
42:10
same or they're both three and one or four and one probably the
42:13
same exact record. So Eileen Tex, I I have to trust
42:18
my Isaac floor like Lagaway has looked bad.
42:21
The offensive line has looked bad.
42:23
They haven't found a run game. Here's the thing that Daniel was
42:26
against LSU. They they can't get away from
42:28
the run. They have to commit to running
42:30
the football because if your quarterback is playing poorly
42:33
and doesn't see the field, why do you have him throw it 50
42:37
times? Like you go back to the run and
42:41
try to let play action open up where you get guys, you know,
42:43
why'd the heck open? I didn't understand that.
42:48
Can they do that in this game? You know, like, like you said,
42:50
can play calling change to put this offense in more successful
42:54
situations? I just I don't think so.
42:58
The line scares the heck out of me in this game, but the fact
43:02
that it's under a touchdown, like give me a Texas 2720 win
43:07
and by the skin of my teeth, Texas wins in coverage on the
43:10
road in Gainesville and and in a low scoring game because neither
43:13
one of these offenses have figured it out.
43:14
I think the Texas defensive line could have its way with the
43:17
Florida offensive line. But again, it's a long season.
43:20
Did they find something to the bye week?
43:21
Do they put a different rotation in?
43:23
There's this offensive line that was supposed to be top five in
43:25
the conference. Figure it out.
43:28
I think it's hard to figure stuff out against Texas, but
43:30
again, backs against the wall. I thought Napier coached his
43:34
butt off the last second-half the season last year.
43:37
Did they come out of the bye week ready to roll, ready to go
43:40
beat Texas? We'll see.
43:41
The the line scares me, but I'm taking Texas to win and cover in
43:45
this one. By the way, we did both go three
43:48
and one last week, which brings you Daniel to you are at sorry,
43:54
wrong sheet 4 and 11% against the spread.
43:57
Yep, 10 and 11:00 and 12:00, one game behind that at 42% against
44:00
the spread. So there's our one game
44:02
difference right there where maybe I'll make a comeback here.
44:05
We'll see how we go rest of the way, but that we we need that
44:08
week. We wanted four and O we got
44:11
three and one. We move on.
44:13
We're finding our footing here. Keep stacking 3 in one weeks on
44:17
each other. How about that?
44:18
Hey, win every day, you know, keep stacking days.
44:21
Just. Alabama and Alabama and
44:22
Vanderbilt, look, we we saw this last year in the same exact
44:26
spot. Alabama gets a huge win at home
44:28
against Georgia. Everyone talks about how they're
44:31
the favorites win the national championship.
44:32
They go on the road to Vanderbilt and nothing fluky
44:36
about it. They just got beat.
44:37
They got beat in the high scoring game.
44:40
You know, maybe they're overlooking that one pure, you
44:42
know, perfect let down spot. This is in the same spot,
44:46
Daniel, that they get a win on the road at Georgia.
44:50
Now Vanderbilt's coming into town into their building.
44:53
I've heard people say Daniel, like this is Alabama is not
44:57
going to overlook Vanderbilt. But I also think that it's hard
45:01
to get up two weeks in a row and you can't tell with a straight
45:04
face. Even the Vanderbilt's
45:05
undefeated. They beat him.
45:07
They're not going to be overlooked.
45:09
It's also not the Georgia game, so I I do think there's
45:12
something there. The Lion's 10 1/2.
45:15
Who do you like in this game in Tuscaloosa?
45:17
Not that not that the Alabama game in Alabama and Georgia were
45:20
in Tuscaloosa since that was obviously they they are coming
45:23
home to play this game. But saying that, like you said,
45:27
this game, the the crowd's going to be different.
45:29
It's just going to be it's not going to be a great.
45:32
You know, I, I really like what a great follow on on Twitter,
45:36
Reddit, CFB, just they always usually have some great one
45:40
liners. But one of the things they said
45:42
this this week was Saturday feels like either a Diego
45:45
Pavia's magnum opus or Bama winning 70 to nothing and
45:50
there's no in between. So I agree with that in the
45:52
sense of like, you know that you don't know what's going to
45:56
happen. Diego Pavia.
45:59
I feel like every time I'm ready to go ahead and doubt him is
46:01
when he just keeps doing, you know, these crazy things.
46:05
And you know, people like to point to the the game 10 years
46:08
ago or whatever when Jalen Hurts was AI think it was 262016
46:13
because I think it wasn't that Jalen Hurts was a A freshman and
46:19
both teams were undefeated. And I forget the guy's name.
46:23
The linebacker from from Vanderbilt says, oh, you know,
46:26
Alabama, you're next. You're going to see what kind of
46:30
ball we play in the SEC. You know, it's 59 to nothing
46:35
that Vanderbilt team was propped up.
46:38
That was not that was not this team.
46:40
So like I in the these logos have done it before and we've
46:44
seen, you know, Alabama just completely destroy that was a
46:48
Nick Saban Alabama with Jalen Hurts, a quarterback with a
46:52
unreal amount of studs defensively that were going pro.
46:57
And it was against the Vanderbilt team that had played
46:59
a very weak schedule and had purely survived unbelief.
47:04
This Vanderbilt team is different even from last year,
47:07
from what we've seen so far this year.
47:08
This team can beat you up. They can run the ball, they can
47:13
control the line of scrimmage. And I'm I'm concerned, my
47:16
concern, which is also something that might be a wild card that
47:21
helps Vanderbilt. Diego Pavi is their leading
47:25
rusher. I mean, almost 300 yards rushing
47:27
on the year. It's any time I see that that
47:29
usually worries me. It's usually like, OK, this
47:32
means they don't have a good running game otherwise.
47:35
But when you have almost 300 yards, couple touchdowns, you
47:39
know, it's not that maybe that he's having to do it out of
47:42
necessity. I think maybe it's just that
47:45
he's a weapon and he's the kind of guy whose mentality going
47:51
into a year like this after every you know, everybody had
47:56
said, you know, he's you know, we figured him out after last
47:59
year and obviously they didn't go 12 and O last year.
48:02
People figured them out during the season last year.
48:05
And if Alabama played them the week after they lost to them, I
48:08
think they would have beat them last year.
48:09
I'll say it like that. That being said, this is the
48:12
exact same spot. Look ahead, Diego Pavia, man.
48:17
I mean, I, I'm just going to take these points and see what
48:21
happens. I'm going to go for the ride.
48:24
I'm just going to take the 10 1/2 points.
48:26
I think Alabama wins. I think they should win.
48:27
They're better team. It's at 3:30, just the spots.
48:32
Weird. If Alabama was on the road, I
48:34
think Alabama has a better chance of beating them and I
48:39
think it's because they would lock in for a road game.
48:43
That being said, I'm going to take Vanderbilt with the points.
48:46
I think Alabama wins again, another middle.
48:50
Some people would call it a coward middle.
48:52
I'm just going to take these points.
48:53
But it's on the road that I'm taking these points and I, I,
48:58
it's, I think it's a good line, 10 1/2 open at 11 1/2, I think.
49:02
So give me Vanderbilt, give me the 10 1/2.
49:06
You know, I'm open to whatever happens.
49:09
Alabama probably wins, but who knows?
49:11
We'll see. I've seen crazier things.
49:13
Alabama's, excuse me, Alabama is good.
49:16
Vanderbilt's just a good football team.
49:17
There's nothing fluky about this.
49:20
Like they're power rated into the top 20.
49:22
So that's opponent adjusted. It's not just the five in their
49:25
record. It's not just the schedule
49:26
they've played. They're they're simply a good
49:29
football team. They're not off the radar.
49:31
But like I said, like you're not going to be up for the game as
49:35
like you are against Georgia. Here's what I do see coming,
49:37
Daniel. I do see a high scoring game
49:40
coming. Both teams are comfortable
49:42
playing in a high scoring game. And also Vanderbilt's defense
49:45
not that good. Alabama has given up some
49:48
explosive plays on defense. Pavia is just an experienced in
49:52
a very good college quarterback. He is like he he's kind of this,
49:56
I say dying breed of you know, like sixth year quarterbacks
50:01
from the COVID year, like there's very few left at this
50:03
point. But he's an experienced
50:06
quarterback. It's a great he's a baller.
50:08
He's a Yolo quarterback. He knows how to win football
50:10
games. Opponent adjusted per play.
50:12
Like Vanderbilt has a top five offense in college football
50:16
going against the same same metric like a top 20 defense in
50:19
Alabama. So I think that's kind of your
50:21
good on good. Also put same kind of stat like
50:24
Alabama offense going up against a a top 35 defense in
50:31
Vanderbilt. Excuse me, sorry, no, that is
50:34
true. Sorry.
50:34
Top 35 defense in Vanderbilt, man, I'm going back and forth to
50:37
this. And Daniel, they has been a flip
50:39
to switch. I think that's my question.
50:41
Like was was the Georgia result like last year where they got
50:45
really up for that game? The next week they looked
50:47
completely different because again, the reason I picked
50:50
Georgia was I'm like for for George's flaws.
50:53
I've not seen a lack of effort like I saw with Alabama against
50:56
Florida State. And I didn't know if some of
50:57
those issues were fixable in season.
50:59
Clearly they fixed something because they looked extremely
51:01
focused, like didn't have a lot of penalties.
51:05
They were finishing plays against Georgia.
51:07
Like looks like a completely different team.
51:09
Have they flipped a switch or do we see something similar to last
51:12
year? I think it's a really good game.
51:15
Here's where I'm picking Alabama to cover.
51:17
I think it's like a 44 to 31 game, so high scoring, take the
51:21
over. I think a Pavia Yolo balls.
51:24
What causes a cover here? Like I think it's a good close
51:26
game throughout and like the reason it gets to like 13
51:31
instead of 6 or 7 is probably it does throw a lot of Yolo balls
51:37
works against a lot of team. I mean, just dude, just watch
51:40
him play like he's just he's sprinting out to one side,
51:43
throws across his body and like, wait, some of these balls that
51:46
are just Yolo balls, which wins them a lot of games get a game
51:50
like this in the road. You have one of those turn into
51:51
an interception and all of a sudden the game that you could
51:54
be in position to win where you're driving to go down to
51:57
take a lead, all of a sudden you're down by 13.
52:00
I'm picking Bama to win and cover.
52:03
I'm not at all confident. I'm excited to watch it.
52:07
Not at all confident that, but give me Alabama to win and cover
52:12
and you. Let's go to Houston.
52:15
Baby blue uniforms being played. Texas Tech in Houston.
52:19
Texas Tech a 10 1/2 point favorite on the road.
52:21
To me, they've been the clear Big 12 best team so far.
52:26
Houston undefeated rivalry game here.
52:29
Former former Southwest Conference matchup here.
52:32
Daniel, who do you like in Houston?
52:33
Yeah, you got Connor Wegman, former Texas A&M Aggie leading
52:39
the Houston offense. And you know, it's it's it's an
52:43
impressive team. It's a frisky team.
52:46
Some would say, I won't say that.
52:47
Some would say that I really like that they're undefeated at
52:54
this stage. I think they should be, if you
52:55
look at their schedule, no disrespect.
52:58
So they should be 4 and O and then Texas Tech going on the
53:02
road. I think that the best possible
53:04
game is Texas Tech going on the road to Houston if they were
53:06
going to Lubbock. I think that Texas Tech wins
53:10
this game running away. I think that the Red Raiders are
53:13
just outright a much better team.
53:17
They've also been more battle tested.
53:19
Obviously you look at, you can look at a common opponent,
53:21
Oregon State, obviously one was at home, one was on the road.
53:24
But Oregon State, Texas Tech beats them 4514.
53:29
Houston goes to overtime to beat them 2724.
53:34
I'm not going to outright say that Houston is fraudulent, but
53:40
they just haven't played nobody. If they beat Texas Tech, I will
53:44
give them obviously some respect.
53:46
I'm excited about them. A uniform matchup, you've
53:48
mentioned that. That's going to look cool.
53:50
Texas Tech has got 2 good quarterbacks.
53:52
They've got a relatively, you know, they've got a good defense
53:55
goodness, the most points they've given up this year's 14
53:59
offensively. I mean, they've scored in the
54:01
60s twice now. Those were both overmatched
54:03
opponents, but they beat the mess out of Utah at Utah and it
54:08
should have been worse. 34 to 10 on the road.
54:13
That's a very tough environment to play in and they've had a bye
54:16
week. I do I think the bye week helps
54:18
hurts. I mean that, you know, remains
54:21
to be seen it it definitely helps getting their quarterbacks
54:24
healthy and everything Bear Morton's back.
54:26
We'll see. I'm going to I'm going to lay
54:28
these points. It's a lot of points to lay on
54:30
the road. 10 1/2. Your stat earlier stresses me
54:33
out a little bit about home teams covering or, you know,
54:36
against the spread, everything like that.
54:38
But I'm going to take this road team with points or Rd. team
54:43
laying points. Excuse me.
54:44
So laying 10 1/2. I just think Texas Tech is not
54:48
just better, I think they're markedly better and I think that
54:51
it's going to take a a big time opponent for Texas Tech to even
54:56
come close to a loss, much less let it be A1 score type of game.
55:00
So yeah, I think it's a 2 touchdown win at least there's a
55:04
chance the Tech Tech runs away with it, but I'm going to be
55:07
respectful. I think it's a 2 touchdown win
55:08
and that covers for me. So give me Texas Tech laid the
55:11
points. This one should be over in like
55:14
the third quarter. Daniel, last week the game I
55:17
was, I'm looking here in this other pick sheet.
55:18
I do, I might. So I do another pick sheet.
55:22
I kind of like the ESPN that you see like the confidence picks,
55:25
it's straight up picks better do it by confidence.
55:27
And usually it's just like, you know, I think someone went by
55:30
the biggest points margin that gets the most confident pick
55:32
anyway. I had USC over Illinois as my
55:35
third most confident pick of the 10 picks.
55:37
I just thought like, look, I know they just got beat.
55:41
But even then I'm like USC has looked good.
55:43
I don't care. It's on the road to touchdown
55:44
game like this is at least 10 points very confident.
55:50
I do you mean they straight up lost the game.
55:52
I Daniel going into our picks. If I'm going to say when I first
55:56
pull up like our four games, this is what we're picking.
55:57
I'll glance at them and kind of be like, OK, like, you know,
56:01
probably Texas, but that line scares me.
56:03
Like am I leaning Van to your Alabama?
56:06
I don't know. And then I'm like Texas Tech for
56:07
sure. And then Florida State Miami.
56:09
We'll see. And as I go back through, I just
56:13
got a feeling about this one, Daniel, because honestly, the
56:15
stats say two touchdown win. I'm with you.
56:18
Like all your analysis that was spot on, especially just looking
56:23
at like what Texas Tech's offense be able to do vertically
56:28
this season. I think that, sorry, I lost my
56:34
stat sheet here and pulling it back up and their defense, their
56:36
defensive lines been great. They've been great in the
56:39
secondary against the pass. Houston can run the ball.
56:42
I think that's the like if there's something this game
56:44
where they can keep it ugly and keep it close, they can run the
56:47
ball. Their success rate's just not
56:49
been good. Their EPA per rush is top 25 in
56:51
the country. Can can they run the ball and
56:53
make this ugly? I think so.
56:56
I think so. This is this is one of those
56:57
games where I think you're watching it late.
57:00
Is this game on a Friday? No, this is Saturday night for.
57:02
Somebody I thought it was Friday where you're just like kind of
57:04
like Fort of state of Virginia last week where that game was
57:06
like a 10 point line and it's like like are Texas Tech and
57:09
Houston tied like late in the fourth quarter rivalry game?
57:14
Texas Texan. I mean they're both undefeated,
57:16
but like Houston could win this game and take a lead in the Big
57:20
12 title race. I just like I think this is like
57:22
a touchdown win for Texas Tech and they're fine with that.
57:24
I also think Texas Tech could go run them out of the building
57:27
like the dead against Utah. So I just this is just one of
57:30
these ones where I just have a weird feeling about give me the
57:34
points for the home team. I was picking all favorites too
57:37
and you know, Rd. teams and I'm like, I give me give me Texas
57:41
that actually give me Houston with the points.
57:43
I think Texas Tech wins on middle this one and I think
57:46
Houston covers. So give me the Cougars in this
57:49
one. It's got no solid analysis to
57:52
why that is. I think they can run the ball
57:54
and muddy it up, but it's got a weird feeling about that game.
57:57
It's the Big 12. College football, man.
57:59
College football, you go to Saturday night, Florida State
58:04
hosting Miami. This might have been, and I
58:07
think it still is the biggest Florida State Miami game in
58:10
years. Florida State takes a little bit
58:11
of the shine off of my Louisiana Virginia last week.
58:14
Then they're 4 1/2 point dog at home to Miami.
58:18
Who do you like in Tallahassee? Yeah, this one's tough.
58:20
We talked about earlier just kind of forward thinking like
58:23
who's going to be the better the tougher match up in in the
58:27
postseason. Perhaps both of these teams have
58:29
a lot of football obviously left in front of them.
58:33
Florida State O and one in the ACC after that loss to Virginia.
58:37
That definitely kind of hurts hurts their bid here.
58:39
But you know, Miami having to go to Florida State.
58:44
They both have the you know, they're just I want to see what
58:49
style wins out against one another.
58:52
I think that Miami, like I said before, Miami can win this game
58:56
multiple ways. They can either get ahead and
58:59
kind of pound the ball and you know, have big third down
59:01
conversions, that kind of thing and just play some good defense
59:04
and sit on it a little bit. And then they could also be down
59:07
in this game. And I think that they could come
59:09
back with bet throwing the ball, getting the, you know, running a
59:14
2 minute, that kind of stuff where they have to really, you
59:17
know, change what they're doing. So I think that they could they
59:19
could win multiple ways. I think Florida State wins this
59:21
game one way and one way only. That's by big time crowd, big
59:26
time defense. I'm making plays, getting off
59:28
the field on 3rd downs and specifically ball control
59:31
offensively, running the ball with quarterback with the
59:34
running backs having, you know, a couple of big plays out wide.
59:38
But you know, they're their bread and butter is going to be,
59:41
you know, running the ball, getting first downs, converting,
59:45
doing those kinds of things, doing little things, holding,
59:47
holding on to the ball. 4 stay at home with 4 1/2 points in a
59:52
game like this. I like them in this game because
59:55
even if Miami were to win that other way that I mentioned of,
59:59
you know, being behind but coming back to win, I think that
1:00:03
that's still probably leads them to just a small victory of, you
1:00:06
know, less than three points perhaps.
1:00:08
So I like that half point I get with the four point 4 1/2
1:00:12
points. I think that helps.
1:00:14
You know, me reconcile, I think Florissant outright wins this
1:00:17
game. It's a must win for them.
1:00:19
After last week, there's no more looking ahead.
1:00:21
Last week they were potentially looking ahead.
1:00:24
And I also like the coaching matchup.
1:00:26
You know, I think Cristobal has, you know, a chance that there's
1:00:30
maybe some mental blunders along the way.
1:00:32
Whereas Mike Norvell and Gus Malzani, I feel like are a
1:00:36
little bit more steady as coach, as coaching Staffs give me floor
1:00:41
to stay outright to win. But I'll take the 4 1/2 points
1:00:44
just in case I need them. Deal this for the first week
1:00:47
where we go completely against each other with the picks.
1:00:52
All four-game last night we were completely in unison.
1:00:55
This one was needed complete disagreement.
1:00:57
But again, like that's funny. The game I feel most confident
1:01:00
in is Texas Tech and I just flipped it just because I'm like
1:01:03
I I know nothing. So I'm going to go ahead and
1:01:06
pick you. This will be a close game, man.
1:01:09
We've we've seen it already. I think Illinois is a great
1:01:13
example. They lose to Indiana.
1:01:15
They come right back and beat a good team at home, backs against
1:01:19
the wall. They beat USCI.
1:01:21
Think that can absolutely happen in this game.
1:01:22
But if I'm just looking at the teams, Daniel, I think that
1:01:26
Miami can win this game in more ways than Florida State can win
1:01:29
the game. And so in a tight game that I
1:01:32
think will be within a touchdown, I think Miami has
1:01:35
more ways to win. They can win running the
1:01:37
football. They can win throwing the
1:01:38
football for 350 yards. They need to with Carson Beck.
1:01:41
Their defensive line is one of the best in the country.
1:01:43
Their offensive line is one of the best in the country.
1:01:46
Their defensive backfield was retooled and has looked
1:01:48
unbelievable this year. I think that's one of like the
1:01:50
winds of the portal has been Miami's defensive backfield.
1:01:54
Can the Florida State defense step up and get enough stops
1:01:56
against Miami, enough stops to win?
1:01:59
I think that decides the game. And they're they're bad about
1:02:03
giving up points in the red zone for State's defenses.
1:02:06
They've not been great with field position.
1:02:07
And they're they're third and 4th down success rate.
1:02:11
The border states defense is not getting off the field near as
1:02:14
much as they need to. Miami's a top 15, top 15 offense
1:02:18
in the country in that area. And we saw it last week with
1:02:21
George and Alabama where look, if you keep them on the field,
1:02:24
they're going to keep getting points right.
1:02:25
Like I think I think Miami's offense has enough success on
1:02:29
3rd and 4th down to win a close game on the road.
1:02:33
The 4 1/2 points, I do wish it was like 2 1/2 honestly.
1:02:37
So I think it's going to be a really good close game.
1:02:40
But I do think Miami wins about like a touchdown.
1:02:42
So give me the Hurricanes. I think they're one of the best
1:02:44
teams in the country. I think they go on the road and
1:02:47
beat Fort State. Fort State wins this game, I
1:02:49
think it looks like. I mean, we've already seen this
1:02:52
on this year. No one's really talking about
1:02:53
it, but Beck has thrown started throw some interceptions this
1:02:56
year, was a problem last year. He's thrown 3 picks this year.
1:03:00
When you do that against a good team, you put yourself in a
1:03:02
position to lose football games, right?
1:03:04
So I think that looks like the defense gets a big pick and
1:03:07
Florida State goes up by a touchdown.
1:03:09
Now the crowd's against you, right?
1:03:11
And now the pressure's on. Now you feel like you're in.
1:03:13
Knowing how good of a game they coach Mario Cristobal is, you
1:03:16
start to make some dumb decisions when we start to get
1:03:19
down or when you're up, dude, no lead is safe.
1:03:22
When you get Mario Cristobal, is your head good?
1:03:25
So if I'm picking a close game, I'm really nervous picking them.
1:03:28
But I do think this roster is just better than Florida State.
1:03:31
But again, Miami can go with this game by touchdown.
1:03:33
And I am and by no means worried about Florida State the rest of
1:03:36
the year. So you know, it's a tough loss
1:03:39
to Virginia, but this is still a team that can go 10 and 293, be
1:03:44
right back in the ACC championship game and get a
1:03:46
rematch against Miami potentially.
1:03:47
It's kind of how I see it right now.
1:03:49
But give me Miami on the road at this point in the season.
1:03:53
All right, dude, four games against each other.
1:03:56
So what root for two and two. I mean, I guess we're both
1:03:59
rooting for ourselves to go for and now, but right, one of us is
1:04:03
going to be in the hole and maybe we'll maybe we'll go to
1:04:05
and two and we're both still behind 500.
1:04:07
So not not what I'm rooting for, but be sure to follow us at the
1:04:11
extra point pod on Facebook and Instagram YouTube.
1:04:14
You can follow Daniel on Twitter at Deep South Daniel.
1:04:17
You can follow me on Twitter at Jacob Karn to the K that hold it
1:04:20
for this edition of the extra point.
1:04:22
He is Daniel. I am Jacob.
1:04:24
See ya.