Latest / Trumponomics / 56: Actually, You Probably Can't Make It in New York

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56: Actually, You Probably Can't Make It in New York · Trumponomics

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: And he goes to his parents showing how it's a
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: great investment and if they'll only give him, you know,
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: three hundred and fifty thousand dollars, it will be a
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: great investment. Blah blah blah. The apartment is about one
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: point two million dollars. And the kicker, of course, is
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: that the apartment is five hundred square feet. Hi, and
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: welcome back to Bloomberg Benchmark let show about the global economy.
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: It is Thursday, September twenty nine, and I'm Keith Smith,
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: editor for Bloomberg News here in New York. I am
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: joined today by my co host, Dan Moss, Executive editor
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: for Economics, Hi Kate. Today we're going to be talking
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: about home price inequality. Now, it's no surprise that in
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: some metro areas of the United States, like New York
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: and San Francisco, home prices are incredibly expensive. What you
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: might not know is that the growth of house values
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: in those areas has significantly, and we mean significantly, outpaced
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: other parts of the country. It's true over the past
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: thirty years, apparently, prices in the twenty most expensive markets
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: have risen much faster and much much faster. Like Dan
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: was saying in prices in the twenty least expensive markets,
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: according to a truly A report that was written by
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: Ralph McLaughlin. For those of you who don't know, Trulya
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: is an online aggregator of real estate listings across the US. Now, Dan,
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: what I found really really interesting about this report is
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: that it confirmed this theory that I've had about New York,
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: specifically Manhattan for a while. In New York is so
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: unique to me in that it's a city of successful
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: wealthy people, but not just that those people had to
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: have been raised by successful wealthy people, and that I
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: think makes it really unique and completely cut off to
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: people who, let's face it, just didn't grow up with
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: financial stability. It's another take on this term inequality, which
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: seems to be everywhere at the moment. But before we
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: get to New York and spoiler a look, we're going
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: to talk about your apartment as well. Before we get
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: to New York and where he can still make it here,
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: let's focus first on the country as a whole to
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: talk about housing inequality. We have Robert Shiller on the
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: line joining us from New Haven, Connecticut. Robert's really the
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: gold standard when it comes to home prices. He's the
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: name behind the Case Shiller Index, the authority on housing
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: prices in America. He's a Nobel laureate, the second we've
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: had on the show, and currently Sterling Economic Professor at
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: Yale University. He probably even owns a house. Robert, thanks
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: so much for joining us. My pleasure, Bob. So I
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: want to get your thoughts on this trilier report. Do
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: you buy the idea that the most expensive areas in
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: the US are growing much much faster than the least
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: expensive that that seems to have an element of truth
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: to it. You have to specify the time and of
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: all that. I'm thinking. For example, San Francisco is among
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: the most expensive cities, and it has been growing lately,
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: but it's slowed down on a little bit in our
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: latest numbers. It's a complicated picture, of course. Historically the
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: most expensive places must have grown faster than others at
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: some point in history. But it's a complicated story. You know.
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: It's expensive places don't necessarily grow fast. I think maybe
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: it is happening now, but I'd have to carefully study
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: how accurate that statement is, and with a one year
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: time interval, So the truly report was actually looking at
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: a thirty year time horizon, and they were looking at
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: areas specifically like San Jose and San Francisco into the
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: Bay Area of course, and then New York and a
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: couple others, and that it was that those had grown
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: at such an exponentially larger, larger pace, faster pace. I
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: should say, Oh, you're talking Silicon Valley. Yes, I can
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: certainly believe that because there was a technological revolution in
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: the last thirty years and they're the center for that.
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: So I certainly believe that. And how about the New
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: York question, Well, New York is an expensive city, but
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: lately it hasn't been growing, not over thirty years. I
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: think it has grown substantially, but not as much as
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: people might think. New York has emerged as the financial
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: center that it is, uh since uh the early nineteenth century,
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: so it's had two hundred years. So you know, you
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: figure out what's the excess return on New York real
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: estate over two centuries, it's going to be something like
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: one percent a year. Nothing to get that excited about.
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: So people often make that mistake in judging differences between cities. Well,
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: talk about the long view. How do you account for
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: this difference between perception and what your dater is indicating. Well,
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: I think people are fascinated by the housing market and
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: they love to tell stories, but that doesn't mean they
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: ever look at data and do calculations. The cities that
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: have achieved high levels are not surprisingly glamorous cities, cities
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: that celebrities live in, and the stories about those cities
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: feel people's imagination. It's not surprising. We're human, most of
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: us aren't financial analysts. So in terms of real estate,
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: are these cities even part of the United States national economy?
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: Are they really part of an economy that is comprised
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: of sy Singapore, Dubai and neighborhoods in London? Well, uh,
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: the problem with real estate, it's a very diverse thing.
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: There's always a story practically for all of these. When
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: you say London, London has more stories written about it
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: than just about any other any other city, and it
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: has been a world financial center of great distinction. So
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: it seems plausible to investors from wherever, China, India, Russia,
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: wherever they're coming from, that's the place to put money.
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: And it's also London has a reputation for political stability,
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: and lack of usurpations. So all those things come together
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: to a story for London. I'm not surprised that there's
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: a vulnerability to bubbles in London real estate. Let me
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: jump in here and bring it back to the US
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: for just a second and kind of trying to tie
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: this together with income growth, I mean, in in your
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: own research and the way you've seen kind of the
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: way prices have evolved over the past thirty years. Is
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: there a strong correlation between income growth in a particular
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: area and the home prices or do they tend to
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: be decoupled. We find a correlation and forecasting we've found
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: especially useful employment growth that means more people coming into
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: the city, and you can find a fairly good correlation
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: between in home price increases across cities and employment growth.
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: So here's what happens. Some industry starts expanding in a city,
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: They start hiring and bring people in. There aren't enough
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: houses for all these people, so they start bidding against
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: the residents, and you know, some of the residents will
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: end up if they're lower income, they can't win the bid,
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: so they end up moving in with their parents or
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: something like that. But that stimulates the construction industry, and
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: the construction industry then increases the supply, and eventually prices
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: tend to come back down or at least slow their appreciation.
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  Speaker 1: So that's a typical cycle of cities there. Their growth
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: is irregular through time, and you see bursts of home
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: price increases that will later very likely be reversed. Now fault.
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: That line about people moving in with their parents is
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: a good one. There's been a lot said and written
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: about that. Lightly Kite is a MILLENNIAU all herself and
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: has an interesting personal story, and Bob, i'd like you
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  Speaker 1: to comment on whether you think that is part of
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: what's going on right now. And before I get into
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: my personal story, I'd like to get some numbers, because
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: it's not just me. Right. One in three adult children
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  Speaker 1: in the US they receive monetary support of some kind
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: of their parents. And that's not just on the other
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: end of the spectrum of you know, the millennial sleeping
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: on their parents couch. It's the millennial receiving you know,
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: a rent subsidy from mom and dad so that they
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: can live in Manhattan and pursue their dream of whatever.
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  Speaker 1: So one thing that I find interesting living in New
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: York is that there are very very few people I
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  Speaker 1: know that have not received some kind of parental subsidy
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: along the way to get here. Me personally, I was
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: only able to move into my first apartment because my
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: parents were willing to co sign my lease and to
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: give our listeners a little peek into what the glamorous
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: life is like in New York. This was a maybe
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: three hundred fifty square foot studio if I'm being generous,
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: in Hell's Kitchen for sixteen fifteen a month, and what
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: that required was excellent credit and I'm talking like seven fifty.
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  Speaker 1: My income had to be forty times the monthly rent,
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: and the guarant tour had to be eighty. So the
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  Speaker 1: only way I could have moved into that apartment was
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: with my parents co signing at least, And I thought
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: that was fascinating. When I spoke to my friends, I
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: was actually receiving some of the least amount of support
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: some of them were getting, you know, I mean, I
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: have one friend whose mom pays for half her rent. Like, so, Robert,
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: can you tell me about how is the parental subsidy
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: issue impacting rents in places like Manhattan? It's interesting you
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: mentioned that my own son is not getting He has
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: an apartment in the New York near Manhattan. Um, maybe
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: he didn't go to Manhattan. Maybe it's cheaper a little
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: bit further out, but I think that yeah. I mean,
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  Speaker 1: it's it's natural that this would happen because people have
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  Speaker 1: an instinct to promote their own children. And I think
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: it's probably since time and memorial, right, they were doing
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: that in ancient Rome too. Our bet now, just to
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: bring it back to this issue of inequality, and Bob,
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: you know this better than anyone. It's a term that
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: has a lot of buzz right now. Picketty didn't specifically
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: discuss millennials and Manhattan real estate in his book, but
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: to the general idea of inequality, is this a manifestation
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: of inequality? Wealthy parents beget kids getting a foothold in
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  Speaker 1: a major city, which begets the opportunity to work for
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: fantastic companies like Bloomberg. Is this fueling this inequality zeitgeist? Well,
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  Speaker 1: I think that it's it's stronger than it was in
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  Speaker 1: the past. That it's the millennial generation that I'm not
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: an expert on this, but my impression is they weren't
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: asked to do any household chores when they were children.
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: Used to be you did, But most parents today are
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: are preoccupied on getting their kids an advantage, So you
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: don't want them to do Most people don't want them
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  Speaker 1: to do a household chores because that takes away from
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: their studying and they've got to get into a good
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: high school or a good college and a good job
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: after that. And parents, Uh, I think that's the sitegeist
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: right now, and so renting them an apartment in New
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: York sounds perfectly believable for for now, and I'm bet
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: it's much stronger than it was fifty or a hundred
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  Speaker 1: years ago. Is that a good thing for economic mobility
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: in the country? Well, I think, Uh, what's the alternative?
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: Carl Marks okay, and with angles in eight wrote the
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: communists they didn't want to know about, but they want
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: to abolish the family. It didn't happen. I think this
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: shows that they were stronger on rhetoric than rhetoric than
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: they were on observing reality. Uh, there's a parental instinct
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: to want your children to do well. And once we
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: get past the marginal living, what do parents want to
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: do with their income is to help promote their children.
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: But of course the idea of parental support is is
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: certainly nothing new, obviously, But I think what I find
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: interesting is and it's universal, but it's not universal that
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: parents can afford that, right, So like only a certain
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: kind of parent and a certain kind of person can
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: is able to afford to spend that kind of money
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: on their kids. So I think I think that's what
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: we're talking about a little bit about the economic mobility question,
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: because it's not universal that everyone can move to New
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: York and have half their rent paid for by mom
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: and dad, right, right. And it's getting as you know,
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: Thomas Picquety showed that it's getting worse. I think it's
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: getting to the point where if you are in what
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: he calls the Tope one, there's almost no way to
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: spend the money on yourself. That's why you've ended up
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: lavishing it on your children, and that we would hope
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: they would do more on philanthropy, but somehow the children
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: get favored. What you described would certainly pick true in
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: some parts of the United States, but in others. I'm
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: thinking about New York City. To live the life that
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: you've described, you need a bit more than that wouldn't you.
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: I haven't done the calculations you think going out to
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: eat and going to show. I mean this figorite. We
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: can try to figure it out. But in all seriousness though,
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: I mean, there's been a lot said and written about
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: income disparity in various parts of the country. New York
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: Times had a big piece on this last Sunday, and
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: the extent to which this might be entrenched. The phenomenon
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: that we're talking about in say New York City or
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: San Francisco, has measured over the past thirty years. Again,
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: just to press you on this, it is fueling this
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: sense of inequality and political and economic discomfort. I think
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: that it's the trouble of our times, and it's reflected
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: in the election campaign recent election campaign. I think if
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: you read Toma Picat, I'm trying to pronounce it right.
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: He's French, okay. Uh. The A lot of what's in
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: his book is a discussion of the literature at the
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: at different times in history, notably the so called Gilded Age,
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: around when inequality was especially add and he argued that
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: it affects their their whole sense of life and living
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: and even romance. You know, a lot of novels of
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: that time would talk about marrying into wealth because that
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: was perceived as the only way you could arrive inequality
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: being so high. Now, Kate, you have some more stories,
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: some of which might surprise our listeners, but they may
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: not surprise Bob. It's beyond parents um being sort of
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: hassled by their children to contribute to a down payment,
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: and it's beyond rental subsidies, and it's beyond your own
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: experience of least guaranteurs. You know, people who are doing
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: spreadsheet presentations for their parents about liquidity and rates of
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: returning if only they can help them with the down
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: payment exactly. And I think that's I mean, it almost
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: seems like a parody. It is. I mean, are you
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: saying that they're optimistic about housing as an investment. Yes. Absolutely.
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: I was talking to a friend last night, and I
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: should mention that he he owns an apartment on the
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: Midtown East. He doesn't actually live in it, though, and
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: he was talking about how he views New York real estate,
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: and he is not American. He views New York real
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: estate as the ultimate investment that he could possibly make
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: with his money, because it is to him always growing
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: you're never gonna you're hardly ever going to experience a
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: loss in New York City real estate. And then it's
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: liquid and more. Look what I should say, then, let's
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: say a hedge funder private equity. So if he wants
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: to park a million dollars, what better way to do
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: it than Manhattan real estate to him? So it's not
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: like dad kind of borrowed the car. He sits his
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: parents down and does a spreadsheet presentation based on rights
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: of return as a wife of persuading his parents to
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: cough up a down payment. Bob, you're gonna love this.
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: So the guy who bought that apartment, he was able
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: to afford it on his own, but I know another
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: person who I mean, I guess he didn't really afford it.
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: But anyway, so he wants to buy an apartment in
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: the West Village. And for our listeners who aren't in
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: New York, West Village is I think one of the
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: most expensive neighborhoods in Manhattan. It's beautiful, it's you know,
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: tree lined. When you think of New York, this is
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: the neighborhood you're thinking of. Probably, So anyway, so he
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: wants to buy an apartment in in that neighborhood, and
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: he goes to his parents and he comes up with
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: a power point presentation showing how it's a great investment
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: and if they'll only give him, you know, three hundred
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: and fifty thou dollars, it'll be you know, they'll make
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: their money back. It'll be a great investment. Blah blah blah.
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: The apartment is about one point two million dollars, and
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: they agree, and it's just this investment that they view.
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: And the kicker, of course, is that the apartment is
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: five hundred square feet. And I think that was kind
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: of like what Dan and I are talking to. Is
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: there just I mean, how many families have the liquidity
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: and the cash that they can just look at a
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: presentation say okay, yeah, that makes sense for me to
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: give to my kid. I just have to imagine that
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: that's not a universal phenomenon. It can't be. No, it's
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: not you're talking about. But that's who New York is now.
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: But this feels like it's of it does, and I
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: think making it more universal, that's to me what it
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: New York has become. Because that's the only way you
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: can buy a home in New York. By the way,
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: our numbers for New York metro area show a one
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: point seven increase in home prices over the last year.
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: Now is that New York, Brooklyn, all the borrows or
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: is that just Manhattan. Well, in fact, that is the
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: emphasizing in Manhattan really because we're talking about I don't
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: think we represent the co ops. Well, maybe it's not
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: the only number that you could look at. I think
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: New York, you know, the tens to go through periods
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: of strength and weakness, and New York was weakened by
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: the financial it being a financial center. Of course, London
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: is still going up. And I can't really explain all
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: these things. But I'm wondering what the spreadsheet that this
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: person showed and what the time horizon was. But I
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: have a spreadsheet showing US home price, not Manhattan, US
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: home prices back to eight and it shows that between
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: eighteen ninety and nine, home prices in the US did
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: a little better than increase with inflation. But there's often
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: been an idea that it's done well. It seems to
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: be apocryphal, but it does. Of course. I mean, of
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: course New York has become an expensive city, and that
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: happened over a long time, and it gave people, you know,
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: one or two percent a year return on capital gains.
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: I find it a little strange that people are so
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: excited about it at various times, but that's human nature,
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: I suppose, so, Bob, again taking the long view, and
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: you're very good at this, looking at these cycles over
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: the past hundred hundred fifty years, seeing what you see now,
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: discussing what we're discussing now in the big picture. How
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: does this end for our economy? Well, I hope there
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: isn't an end for our economy. Um, the bubble and
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: burst that we saw that peaked in two thousand and
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: six was a huge historical anomaly. We've never seen anything
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: that dramatic. There was the the bubble in Florida in
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: the mid nineties, but that was more isolated. So I
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: don't know what to make of of these Uh why
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: are we likely to have that happen again? I don't maybe,
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: but right now it's not really happening. It's not that
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: dramatic on a broad scale. Maybe in certain places. Robert,
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: this has been a fascinating conversation. Thank you so much
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: for joining us. We've enjoined it immensely. Benchmark Will be
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: back next week, and until then, you can find us
• 21:19
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• 21:22
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• 21:25
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• 21:27
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• 21:30
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• 21:32
  Speaker 1: to and follow us on Twitter at at Daniel Moss
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: d C and at by Kate Smith, and you can
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: follow our guest as well. Robert can be found on
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: Twitter at at Robert J. Schiller. We'll have to get
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: your spreadsheet friend and here. I don't think he's going
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: to want to come in here after the show. See
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: you next week.