Latest / Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar / 6/16/26: Anthropic CEO Pressed On AI In Military Use, Gas Prices Here To Stay, MAGA Grandma Turns On Trump

Transcript

6/16/26: Anthropic CEO Pressed On AI In Military Use, Gas Prices Here To Stay, MAGA Grandma Turns On Trump · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

0:00
Speaker 1: Hey, guys, Saga and Crystal here.
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0:33
Speaker 2: Some very interesting comments from anthropics Dario Amande, who I
0:37
Speaker 2: will remind you they're supposed to be like the ethical,
0:41
Speaker 2: safety minded AI company. He was asked about whether or
0:45
Speaker 2: not Claude, their product, played a role in the murder
0:49
Speaker 2: of a lot of Iranian schoolgirls in monob Let's go
0:52
Speaker 2: ahead and take a listen to his response.
0:54
Speaker 4: We don't know exactly how you know these models were used,
0:59
Speaker 4: you know obviously, like you know these things that that
1:03
Speaker 4: you know, mistakes that happen in warfare are really really terrible,
1:07
Speaker 4: Like this is a really terrible thing to happen. We
1:10
Speaker 4: were willing to risk the future of our company to
1:12
Speaker 4: like limit how you know these models are used. And
1:16
Speaker 4: you know, what you're talking about is a use case
1:19
Speaker 4: that doesn't even violate our red lines. We're worried that
1:21
Speaker 4: there will be one hundred times as much you know,
1:24
Speaker 4: with with use cases that that that do violate our
1:27
Speaker 4: red lines.
1:28
Speaker 2: So he says, there, the use case does not even
1:32
Speaker 2: violate our guidelines. The use case here being you know,
1:36
Speaker 2: targeting a little girls' school and murdering over one hundred
1:40
Speaker 2: Iranian school girls. That's the use case he's talking about.
1:43
Speaker 2: And the crazy thing is Sager that you don't want
1:45
Speaker 2: to say like he's supposed to be the most ethical.
1:48
Speaker 5: Like I actually think he is. It just shows you
1:51
Speaker 5: how low the bar is.
1:53
Speaker 2: You know, he's the one they said to the Pentagon, no,
1:56
Speaker 2: we're not going to accept complete autonomous killing with no
2:00
Speaker 2: human involved in the decision making whatsoever. That led to
2:04
Speaker 2: him drawing the ire of Pete Heggsath, Secretary of War Crimes,
2:07
Speaker 2: Pete Heggsath, and the Trump administration overall. I think it
2:11
Speaker 2: is the primary reason why right now fable has been
2:13
Speaker 2: pulled not so much out of concerns over safety, but
2:16
Speaker 2: because he dared politically to cross the Trump regime. So
2:21
Speaker 2: and meanwhile, after he did that, than Sam Altman and
2:23
Speaker 2: open AI immediately runs up, Oh, we'll do it, don't worry,
2:26
Speaker 2: we have no ethics whatsoever. So I actually think it
2:29
Speaker 2: is true that he is the best of the group,
2:32
Speaker 2: and that is really really saying something because listen to
2:36
Speaker 2: how he talks about this too. I mean, the content
2:38
Speaker 2: of it is disturbing enough, but it's also so cold
2:42
Speaker 2: and so divorced from any kind of humanity, Like the
2:47
Speaker 2: normal human reaction is horror at what was done and
2:52
Speaker 2: deep upset over the possibility that's something that you were
2:55
Speaker 2: involved in creating, may have had anything to do with that.
3:00
Speaker 2: Get none of that from him whatsoever. This is the
3:03
Speaker 2: guy that you know, he was at open AI. He
3:06
Speaker 2: was sort of the head of the group that was
3:07
Speaker 2: most concerned about safety. Then he's concerned that open AI
3:11
Speaker 2: isn't taking safety seriously enough. They go out and start anthropic.
3:14
Speaker 2: That's like his you know, his origin story. But it
3:17
Speaker 2: really gives you a window into the psychology of these
3:21
Speaker 2: people who have tremendous power in their hands. And who
3:24
Speaker 2: you know, are already tremendously wealthy. If aanthropic goes public,
3:28
Speaker 2: he is going to be even more wildly wealthy. And
3:30
Speaker 2: if they succeed and into achieving AGI or super intelligence,
3:33
Speaker 2: the amount of power that he's going to have personally
3:38
Speaker 2: or any of these guys is so terrifying.
3:40
Speaker 3: That's why I was like, with the look, I get it.
3:42
Speaker 3: You know, it's not like corrupt reasons. I'm still I'm like, no, Like,
3:45
Speaker 3: we cannot be ruled by these people. You know, if
3:47
Speaker 3: you listen to the whole thing, and I have a
3:49
Speaker 3: little bit of a summary, what he says is that
3:52
Speaker 3: he's like, look, it didn't even violate our use case
3:54
Speaker 3: because a human reviewed it. It's like, well, the whole
3:57
Speaker 3: problem is about how that targets set remained on the
4:01
Speaker 3: day one strike package?
4:03
Speaker 1: Was it AI?
4:04
Speaker 3: As we have laid out, there's a very convincing case
4:07
Speaker 3: for it because of the name and the rename. It's
4:10
Speaker 3: exactly the type of thing anybody casually playing around with AI.
4:15
Speaker 3: What was it?
4:16
Speaker 1: The girls' school used to be part of.
4:17
Speaker 3: A base, it had been abandoned, and then there was
4:20
Speaker 3: also that strike on the park, if we recall, which
4:22
Speaker 3: also had been labeled in such a way that an.
4:24
Speaker 5: It was called police park.
4:26
Speaker 2: It's really in particular, we're targeting a lot of civilian
4:30
Speaker 2: police to try to create social chaos and disorder within Iran.
4:34
Speaker 2: In both they end up bombing a park called police Park.
4:36
Speaker 3: You could easily see how at Chatch GPT or claud As,
4:39
Speaker 3: maybe any of you, if you've played around with it,
4:41
Speaker 3: how they would be like, yeah, find all places used
4:44
Speaker 3: by police and Iran target set pops up, find all
4:48
Speaker 3: IRGC bases that are known. How would it know necessarily
4:51
Speaker 3: without a human actually checking. They didn't check in those
4:54
Speaker 3: parts of the strike package. So you cannot trust these people,
4:57
Speaker 3: you know, you really should also really pay close attention
5:01
Speaker 3: to their defense of the technology. Let me read you
5:03
Speaker 3: this direct quote from the same interview. A'ma day defended
5:07
Speaker 3: the use of AI military conflict during his interviews. We
5:10
Speaker 3: don't want a world where China and Russia can build,
5:13
Speaker 3: can analyze all their intelligence with AI, can use AI
5:17
Speaker 3: for attacking Taiwan and Ukraine, and we can't defend them
5:21
Speaker 3: all right, So in his universe, Claude is the only
5:25
Speaker 3: American alternative. Now recall in China, yes, they have private companies.
5:30
Speaker 3: There's no such thing. The private companies work in tandem
5:33
Speaker 3: directly with the government. I don't even care about that
5:35
Speaker 3: at this point, because clearly it's a superior model. Well, here,
5:39
Speaker 3: what they're saying is that our unfettered, unrestricted AI is
5:43
Speaker 3: the only potential opportunity to combat what the Chinese and
5:48
Speaker 3: oh the spooky Russians are doing in Ukraine. That's the
5:52
Speaker 3: they're trying to prop themselves up as these national champions.
5:55
Speaker 3: And it's deeply cynical because what it really means is
5:59
Speaker 3: that our national chamampions have to be completely unrestricted and
6:03
Speaker 3: have to be backed stopped by the US government, and
6:06
Speaker 3: that we cannot tell them what to do, we will acquiesce.
6:08
Speaker 1: To them entirely.
6:09
Speaker 3: Both are terrifying possibilities, yes, right, And that because at
6:12
Speaker 3: least in China, you know, you don't have this separate
6:15
Speaker 3: oligarchy of total government control.
6:17
Speaker 1: Total government control has.
6:19
Speaker 3: Its down science, but here you have half government control
6:23
Speaker 3: and then half private control over everything. It's actually the
6:26
Speaker 3: worst of both worlds. You have oligarchic and government authoritarianism
6:30
Speaker 3: fused together basically to create some sort of like supra
6:34
Speaker 3: super rich state, which is ultimately I think what they want,
6:38
Speaker 3: you know, for everybody.
6:39
Speaker 2: Yeah, the butt China argument that Dario is fully bought in.
6:44
Speaker 2: All on, I'm reading this book, what is it called
6:47
Speaker 2: Empire of Ai?
6:48
Speaker 5: Excellent?
6:49
Speaker 2: Yeah, And so I'm going through this portion right now.
6:53
Speaker 2: And when you have this mentality of oh, but if
6:56
Speaker 2: we don't do it, then the scary Chinese are going
6:59
Speaker 2: to do it, guess what that leads to? All your
7:01
Speaker 2: safety concerns ultimately are going to take a back seat
7:03
Speaker 2: to that or your moral ethical concerns. As in the
7:06
Speaker 2: case of letting the Department of War Crimes use your
7:10
Speaker 2: technology in such a way that results in little girls
7:13
Speaker 2: getting mass murdered. You're going to say, oh, but if
7:16
Speaker 2: we don't do it, then China is going to do it.
7:18
Speaker 2: This is exactly how David Sax was able to spike
7:21
Speaker 2: the potential executive order that was reportedly being drafted that
7:24
Speaker 2: Trump was contemplating of requiring some sort of government process
7:27
Speaker 2: to make sure these models are safe before they're turned
7:29
Speaker 2: over to the public. And if you, hell, but if
7:32
Speaker 2: we do that, then on Chine is going to be
7:34
Speaker 2: that we can't have that. That's how you end off
7:37
Speaker 2: end up with this complete no regulation off to the
7:40
Speaker 2: race's approach that we have. And you know, just to
7:44
Speaker 2: go back to what you were saying about, you know,
7:45
Speaker 2: the targeting and how you can imagine AI. Okay, you're
7:49
Speaker 2: looking for anything to do with police, sears, police park
7:52
Speaker 2: and also the interaction between AI and humans and how
7:55
Speaker 2: it makes the humans lazier. I think this is very
7:58
Speaker 2: common with tech chnological advances, right. I mean you can
8:02
Speaker 2: think about it like Google Maps. Right, We've all brains
8:05
Speaker 2: have all gotten a lot lazier and a lot less
8:06
Speaker 2: adept at being able to actually find our way around
8:09
Speaker 2: places and know how to get you know, how to
8:11
Speaker 2: get places on our own, but that has only minor consequences.
8:15
Speaker 2: You could think about it with the Tesla self driving, right,
8:18
Speaker 2: It's good most of the time. The expectation is supposed
8:22
Speaker 2: to be that human is paying attention and not just
8:25
Speaker 2: default turning it all over to the computer. Because we've
8:28
Speaker 2: had hundreds of accidents, some of them fatal from exactly
8:31
Speaker 2: that result where the auto driving system is not so
8:35
Speaker 2: good that it can deal with these edge cases. But
8:38
Speaker 2: the human has already lazily turned over all of their
8:40
Speaker 2: faculties to the self driving and so you could see
8:43
Speaker 2: very easily how this would happen with military targeting as well.
8:47
Speaker 2: If it was a human that was having to go
8:49
Speaker 2: through from scratch and develop the strike package and analyze
8:52
Speaker 2: all of these targets, they wouldn't just be lazily turning
8:56
Speaker 2: over their brain power to the tech.
8:58
Speaker 5: But oftentimes what happens with.
8:59
Speaker 2: The tech is you just assume that, oh, it's you know,
9:02
Speaker 2: it's pretty good, and it is probably pretty good most
9:04
Speaker 2: of the time, but there are going to be instances
9:08
Speaker 2: where it fails. And those instances, when you're talking about war,
9:12
Speaker 2: are literally life or death.
9:14
Speaker 5: You know.
9:14
Speaker 2: The other thing that has been very noteworthy that we
9:17
Speaker 2: have been tracking here is the public backlash to this technology.
9:21
Speaker 2: And one thing that's truly unique we can put C
9:23
Speaker 2: two up on the screen is that that backlash has
9:26
Speaker 2: really been centered among young people. And the reason I
9:29
Speaker 2: say that's unique is because usually it's young people who
9:31
Speaker 2: are the most enthusiastic about new technological developments, and it's
9:36
Speaker 2: usually older people who are out setting their ways. Get
9:38
Speaker 2: off my lawn. I don't want to change how I'm
9:40
Speaker 2: doing things. I like the status quo. Here it's a
9:42
Speaker 2: complete reversal where it's young people who have the gravest concerns.
9:46
Speaker 2: Understandably because I think of a couple of reasons.
9:48
Speaker 5: Put C two up. This is a Stanford walk out.
9:51
Speaker 2: Of the CEO of Google was speaking at their commencements
9:56
Speaker 2: ceremony Sundar PRACAI and there was a significant walk out here.
10:01
Speaker 5: Now this wasn't just about AI.
10:02
Speaker 2: This was about Google's contracts with the IDF, and you
10:08
Speaker 2: know the moral and ethical concerns, but I think the
10:11
Speaker 2: two are very much tied in given how much we
10:13
Speaker 2: understand that AI was important and was really tested out.
10:16
Speaker 2: They use Gaza as like a testing ground for the
10:19
Speaker 2: integration of AI tech on the battlefield. So we've also
10:25
Speaker 2: seen you know, any AI commencement set speakers that even
10:28
Speaker 2: mention AI at all getting booed and you know, really
10:33
Speaker 2: having a rough time of it with these students. And
10:35
Speaker 2: you can understand saga why because they're the ones who
10:37
Speaker 2: are really on the frontline of the job consequences here,
10:41
Speaker 2: and young people are also have been the most vocal
10:43
Speaker 2: and the most upset about the ethical implications and the
10:47
Speaker 2: barbarism that they've seen with this technology as well.
10:49
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think you know, with a lot of this
10:51
Speaker 3: what people are watching in horror is the sheer like
10:55
Speaker 3: it's about control. It's not just about immorality with what
10:58
Speaker 3: happened in Israel and Gaza, that's definitely part of it.
11:00
Speaker 3: But the reason why with data center, if you talk
11:02
Speaker 3: to the younger person, I mean, you know, I remember
11:05
Speaker 3: talking about this last year. It's you know, what is it?
11:08
Speaker 3: It's June sixteenth, so we're full passed. The class of
11:11
Speaker 3: twenty twenty six has mostly graduated.
11:13
Speaker 1: What do you do? We remember in our AMA somebody
11:16
Speaker 1: asked us, They're like, what career advice would you give?
11:18
Speaker 1: I don't know. I can't tell you.
11:20
Speaker 3: And I didn't even graduate that long ago, so that
11:23
Speaker 3: it's a terrifying possibility. I look at the wage growth,
11:26
Speaker 3: I look at the economy, I look at housing. I mean,
11:28
Speaker 3: how what other than learn how to think for yourself
11:32
Speaker 3: and you know, really try to build up genuinely, like
11:35
Speaker 3: build up your ability to make decisions by reading a
11:37
Speaker 3: lot of books. I do not know what possible actual
11:40
Speaker 3: career advice I could give serious and I think that's
11:43
Speaker 3: really scary for a lot of people with AI. And
11:47
Speaker 3: this is probably the first generation because the class of
11:49
Speaker 3: twenty twenty six chat EPT came out in twenty twenty two.
11:53
Speaker 3: They went through full on college with chat Sheep two
11:55
Speaker 3: their entire college experience. So a lot of them probably
11:58
Speaker 3: have never written a real essay. They have never don't
12:01
Speaker 3: even know what it's like to have to solve problems
12:03
Speaker 3: or anything without AI at a collegiate level, and even
12:06
Speaker 3: if they're continuing in their field. So for them, they
12:09
Speaker 3: know the upside and the usefulness of SET technology, but
12:12
Speaker 3: they also know how much it could potentially endanger their
12:15
Speaker 3: future career choices. And then all to see Dario and others,
12:19
Speaker 3: you know, talking about how, oh, it wouldn't even.
12:20
Speaker 1: Violate our use case. So they're out of control. You know.
12:24
Speaker 3: I felt that one of the reasons why a lot
12:26
Speaker 3: of young people despair right now is they really have
12:28
Speaker 3: never been less in control of their own destiny than
12:32
Speaker 3: at any time in modern American history. That's what the
12:35
Speaker 3: dream ultimately was about, is I foresee a path to
12:38
Speaker 3: controlling my future, and right now they don't.
12:41
Speaker 2: That's what AI is ultimately. I think that's right. Let's
12:44
Speaker 2: put see five up on the screen. I have a personal,
12:48
Speaker 2: deep and abiding hatred of these freaking meta AI glasses
12:54
Speaker 2: that you know, people can be wearing them you really
12:57
Speaker 2: can't tell that they could be recording, taking picture you,
13:00
Speaker 2: et cetera. And so Wired, which does some really great reporting,
13:05
Speaker 2: they have uncovered that Meta is partnering with this Pentagon
13:09
Speaker 2: supplier to prototype facial recognition for their glasses.
13:14
Speaker 5: The company is called Rank one.
13:16
Speaker 2: They say the board includes a former CIA Deputy director,
13:19
Speaker 2: former FBI science chief, supplied face recognition and Meta for
13:22
Speaker 2: internal development of its smart glasses app. They go on
13:26
Speaker 2: to say the arrangement is documented in a software license
13:29
Speaker 2: that was obtained by Wired. This would be part of
13:33
Speaker 2: the Meta, ray Ban and Oakley smart glasses. Rank one's
13:37
Speaker 2: face recognition has been bought by the US Marshal Service,
13:40
Speaker 2: which uses it to confirm prisoner's identities without fingerprinting them
13:43
Speaker 2: during transport, by the Naval Criminal Investigative Service, the Navy's
13:47
Speaker 2: Police Force, which purchased.
13:48
Speaker 5: The company's video tool.
13:50
Speaker 2: Rank one developed long range face recognition for US Special
13:54
Speaker 2: Operations Command under a government research contract, saying it software
13:57
Speaker 2: could identify a face from as far as a kilometer away.
14:00
Speaker 2: Police departments across the country use its algorithms to embedded
14:03
Speaker 2: in tools they buy from other vendors. By the way,
14:06
Speaker 2: already the deployment of this tech in a policing and
14:09
Speaker 2: surveillance context has led to issues where people have been
14:13
Speaker 2: wrongfully arrested for crimes they allegedly committed where they were
14:17
Speaker 2: not even in the state where the crime was committed,
14:20
Speaker 2: but you know, they come up on some algorithmically facial
14:23
Speaker 2: recognition technology as though it was them, and then they
14:26
Speaker 2: end up getting arrested and it's literally taken weeks to
14:29
Speaker 2: months to get them out of prison and prove that
14:31
Speaker 2: I had nothing to do with this crime. So, even
14:33
Speaker 2: in policing context, this is already horrifying, but how dystopian
14:37
Speaker 2: that people could be walking around with these frickin things
14:40
Speaker 2: and pulling you up on good you know, facial recognition
14:42
Speaker 2: and pulling you up and knowing everything about you. That
14:45
Speaker 2: is creepy as hell. It is such a violation. I
14:49
Speaker 2: have got to be based.
14:50
Speaker 1: I was like, am I maybe call me a LUDDI
14:52
Speaker 1: ban this shit? Yeah?
14:53
Speaker 3: When I'm absolutely, when i'm maybe i'm paranoid. But when
14:56
Speaker 3: I'm in public, that is literally the first thing that
14:58
Speaker 3: I look for.
14:58
Speaker 1: Because you don't know they're weirdos who are out there.
15:01
Speaker 3: You're in a gym walker room, people are walking around
15:03
Speaker 3: with glasses you don't know for sure, I mean anybody
15:06
Speaker 3: else seen on Instagram, Like the number of undercover videos
15:10
Speaker 3: that people do now, you know, yeah, and some of
15:12
Speaker 3: them are entertaining, but it's like, look, I'll take my
15:15
Speaker 3: entertainment off the table just to make sure that people
15:18
Speaker 3: have like a modicum of privacy. If you're a cashier,
15:21
Speaker 3: you're not safe. If you're in a social situation, you're
15:23
Speaker 3: not said. I mean, God help, any young person wants
15:26
Speaker 3: to go to a bar, you know anymore these days,
15:28
Speaker 3: good luck, seriously, because between phones and the metaglasses, like
15:32
Speaker 3: it's you're constantly being recorded. And also, you know, these
15:36
Speaker 3: people don't even have any scruples about just airing the
15:40
Speaker 3: faces of complete strangers. Like here in the news business,
15:43
Speaker 3: you can't do that. You have to get release forms
15:45
Speaker 3: and all this. They just er it, you know, an
15:47
Speaker 3: err on the side of They just don't care about caution.
15:51
Speaker 3: They'll put people completely on blast. And now to add
15:54
Speaker 3: facial recognition software, which it already exists.
15:57
Speaker 1: You can look up Clearview AI.
15:59
Speaker 3: It's already it's one of the biggest technology companies that
16:01
Speaker 3: came out of Silicon Valley and it works with every police,
16:04
Speaker 3: you know, CIA and all these other intelligence agencies.
16:07
Speaker 1: By the way, if.
16:08
Speaker 3: You're curious for what their founder has gone on to do,
16:10
Speaker 3: he now is going to be owning a stake and
16:12
Speaker 3: only fans. So think about that next time that you
16:15
Speaker 3: are signing up for one of those.
16:17
Speaker 5: Yeah.
16:17
Speaker 3: Yeah, And a little facial recognition on the camera that
16:20
Speaker 3: anybody else ever seen this? You know, like the green
16:22
Speaker 3: light come on when the camera's on. I don't even
16:25
Speaker 3: have face ID still comes on sometime. What are you recording?
16:28
Speaker 1: What's going on?
16:29
Speaker 5: Heroes?
16:29
Speaker 1: You know?
16:30
Speaker 2: Yeah, and there's something I mean, it's bad enough that
16:32
Speaker 2: there's so many public cameras so much just like public surveillance,
16:37
Speaker 2: but it feels different when there's an assumption that okay, whatever,
16:41
Speaker 2: you know, government or business or whatever that's reviewing this footage.
16:44
Speaker 2: At least there's level of like professionalism that you know whatever.
16:48
Speaker 5: That's the expectation. Feels a little less personal right now.
16:53
Speaker 2: If you have an individual person who is creepily taking
16:57
Speaker 2: your photo or videoing you with ound you knowing like
17:01
Speaker 2: that is it is just it is very disturbing.
17:04
Speaker 5: So yeah, I.
17:05
Speaker 2: Hate these things. I think they should be banned. The
17:08
Speaker 2: tie up with the facial recognition company just makes it worse.
17:10
Speaker 2: But I already just hate that they exist right.
17:12
Speaker 3: Well, and what they'd done, if you will see, is
17:15
Speaker 3: meta ray Bands is fully integrated into Instagram, and so
17:19
Speaker 3: when people take videos of them, it actually is even
17:22
Speaker 3: a de facto advertisement for the ray bands. They're like,
17:25
Speaker 3: see how it was shot. It is shot on the
17:27
Speaker 3: ray band, and you know, they have all this bs
17:29
Speaker 3: like oh there's a light on and all this stuff.
17:32
Speaker 3: People put tapes on the lines. It's a whole industry
17:34
Speaker 3: now of all of these undercover people, you know, prank
17:37
Speaker 3: YouTubers and all of this. Like what possible benefit of
17:41
Speaker 3: putting spycams which you can blast out on social media
17:44
Speaker 3: could ever come to society? We should cover this soon.
17:47
Speaker 3: I don't know if you saw it. The UK just
17:49
Speaker 3: banned social media for all children under the age of sixteen.
17:51
Speaker 5: I did see it.
17:52
Speaker 3: I was like, wow, incredible, like just out of he
17:55
Speaker 3: just came out and he's like, we're banning it for
17:57
Speaker 3: everyone under the age of sixteen and predictive. The Silicon
18:01
Speaker 3: Valley people are freaking out about it. They're like, oh, no,
18:04
Speaker 3: this is about government control. I'm like, yeah, exactly, because
18:07
Speaker 3: we don't want to be under your control. At least
18:09
Speaker 3: in the government, you have somewhat of a democratic input
18:12
Speaker 3: as opposed to what what should I become a shareholder
18:14
Speaker 3: of Meta for my measly five hundred dollars and register
18:17
Speaker 3: my you know, my complaints. It's we have no control
18:21
Speaker 3: over these people. And these cameras are everywhere between ring.
18:24
Speaker 3: Have I told you about ring and the police thing?
18:26
Speaker 3: It's nuts, Like, if you have a ring camera, yeah,
18:29
Speaker 3: and a crime is committed, the police can just send
18:32
Speaker 3: you a request for all ten blocks let's say, of
18:35
Speaker 3: a suspect and be like, submit anonymously.
18:38
Speaker 1: All your video.
18:39
Speaker 3: I mean, you're under no matter where you walk around,
18:42
Speaker 3: you are completely under surveillance, you know, by the state,
18:46
Speaker 3: by private court.
18:47
Speaker 2: You know what else they do They feed all of
18:49
Speaker 2: that also into these AI courses need to help with
18:51
Speaker 2: their training data and develop them whatever. Anyway, it's very
18:55
Speaker 2: it's very disturbing. All right, Let's talk a little bit
18:58
Speaker 2: about the the economic fallout of the Iran war that
19:03
Speaker 2: may continue even though a deal is struck. So we
19:09
Speaker 2: have a memo of understanding for a sixty day negotiation period.
19:13
Speaker 2: A lot that could go wrong with regard to this
19:16
Speaker 2: potential deal with the run, which we've covered other places
19:19
Speaker 2: in the show, but we wanted to take a look
19:21
Speaker 2: at the economic fallout and assuming the best case scenario,
19:24
Speaker 2: assuming this all goes swimmingly and the straight of Hormones
19:28
Speaker 2: opens imminently, what is likely to be the continued lag effects.
19:33
Speaker 2: How quickly can we expect oil markets in particular to
19:36
Speaker 2: get back to normal. So New York Times has an
19:39
Speaker 2: interesting write up here. They say deal to reopen hormones
19:42
Speaker 2: kicks off a long effort to ease the energy crisis.
19:45
Speaker 2: Because remember, we've had months at this point of things
19:49
Speaker 2: not being normal, and if there's one thing we weren't learned,
19:51
Speaker 2: both from Ukraine and from the COVID shock, it can
19:54
Speaker 2: take a while before the kinks get worked down of
19:57
Speaker 2: the system till things truly were.
19:59
Speaker 5: Very to the way that they were before.
20:01
Speaker 2: There's also some indications they may never completely return to
20:05
Speaker 2: the way that they were before. Let me read you
20:07
Speaker 2: a little bit from this piece. They say the long
20:09
Speaker 2: awaited deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz brought quick
20:12
Speaker 2: relief to the oil market, sending prices to their lowest
20:14
Speaker 2: levels since early March, getting substantial amounts of oil and
20:18
Speaker 2: gas blowing, however, will take much longer. It can take
20:21
Speaker 2: weeks or months even in the best of times, to
20:23
Speaker 2: get oil and gas from wells in the Persian Gulf
20:25
Speaker 2: to buyers in China or Japan.
20:28
Speaker 5: The first big test for.
20:29
Speaker 2: Whether the deal will work is whether it gives shipping
20:31
Speaker 2: companies and of confidence to send their vessels through the strait.
20:35
Speaker 2: If they do, tankers that have been strand in the
20:37
Speaker 2: Persian Gulf will be able to bring much needed fuel
20:39
Speaker 2: to buyers around the world. What comes after that will
20:42
Speaker 2: depend a lot on how long companies think the reopening
20:45
Speaker 2: will last. The US and Iron agreed to a sixty
20:48
Speaker 2: day truce during which they would try to breach a
20:50
Speaker 2: broader agreement on Around's nuclear weapons program and US sanctions
20:53
Speaker 2: against the.
20:54
Speaker 5: Country, so socger.
20:55
Speaker 2: What they point to here is the fact that a
20:58
Speaker 2: lot of the reason that ships have not been trans
21:02
Speaker 2: transitting the straight orform moves is obviously the war led
21:06
Speaker 2: to an inability to transit, and there were mines in
21:09
Speaker 2: the strait, but also even if you wanted to, you
21:12
Speaker 2: were not going to be able to get insurance. You know,
21:15
Speaker 2: the shipping companies that own these giant tankers are not
21:18
Speaker 2: willing to take that risk, and so now you have
21:21
Speaker 2: a situation that continues to be very tenuous. Are they
21:24
Speaker 2: going to be able to get insurance in the near term?
21:27
Speaker 2: Are they going to wait the sixty days until a
21:29
Speaker 2: deal is actually secured before they begin transitting again, So
21:33
Speaker 2: it will be a further delay before traffic fully returns
21:37
Speaker 2: to normal. You also have a situation where you know,
21:40
Speaker 2: everybody's stockpiles have dramatically diminished, so there's very low levels
21:45
Speaker 2: in our strategic patrol and reserve as well as countries
21:48
Speaker 2: around the country. So there's going to be you know,
21:51
Speaker 2: further increased demand as things come back to normal. All
21:54
Speaker 2: of this is to say that it may still be
21:56
Speaker 2: a while before things truly returned to anything approximate what
22:00
Speaker 2: they were before.
22:00
Speaker 3: The war, right, And if we look at some of
22:02
Speaker 3: the oil markets and others, So for example, Brent crude
22:06
Speaker 3: is currently trading around eighty dollars a barrel. I think
22:10
Speaker 3: that West Texas somewhere around seventy. We should begin to
22:14
Speaker 3: see gas prices come, which is good. You know, we're
22:16
Speaker 3: going to see it's still about four dollars a gallon nationally.
22:19
Speaker 3: They'll probably normalize around three point fifty or so. But
22:22
Speaker 3: that's the problem is three to fifty is still at
22:25
Speaker 3: least a dollar higher or so then where things were
22:28
Speaker 3: before the war began, and people are going to remember
22:31
Speaker 3: that they still had to pay those one hundred days
22:34
Speaker 3: of four dollars a gallon gasoline as things continue. The
22:38
Speaker 3: important point that they make inside of this story around
22:42
Speaker 3: the Strait of Hormuz and the resumption of oil traffic
22:44
Speaker 3: is the amount of slack in the system now is
22:47
Speaker 3: basically completely gone. For example, let's put D two up
22:51
Speaker 3: here on the screen. This is the US Energy Secretary
22:53
Speaker 3: who was speaking just a week ago, who said, quote,
22:56
Speaker 3: it will take many months to get back to normal
22:59
Speaker 3: after this energy crisis. And the specific thing that he
23:02
Speaker 3: points to is around the shifting of supply chain. And
23:07
Speaker 3: so what we were talking about a lot of time
23:09
Speaker 3: during the blockade was it takes like forty something days
23:14
Speaker 3: from a tanker to get from Asia to the United
23:17
Speaker 3: States and then another forty days I could be wrong
23:20
Speaker 3: on the exact number of days, but something like that
23:22
Speaker 3: to go back, and so so many different you know,
23:25
Speaker 3: supply chains have been redirected from Asia to America or
23:29
Speaker 3: from America to Asia that reshifting and coming back to
23:33
Speaker 3: the straight or from it takes months. And there's also
23:36
Speaker 3: all the excess oil that was in the system has
23:39
Speaker 3: gone basically right. And the example of this I think
23:42
Speaker 3: we have is about what was it, yeah, D five
23:44
Speaker 3: please that we can put up here. You can actually
23:47
Speaker 3: see in this chart what we have is the barrels
23:51
Speaker 3: of crude in the US Petroleum Reserve are literally at
23:54
Speaker 3: their lowest level since the nineteen eighties, so since Ronald
23:58
Speaker 3: Reagan was president, the US Petroleum Reserve has never been
24:01
Speaker 3: this low. And what the oil executives say is that
24:04
Speaker 3: with all these dwindling stockpiles, it basically just means you're
24:07
Speaker 3: going to have some level of demand destruction for oil
24:11
Speaker 3: facilities and others. As we've described, we still don't even
24:14
Speaker 3: know what level they were operating at. You know, Rory
24:17
Speaker 3: made a real point of telling us here on the show,
24:20
Speaker 3: it's not that simple to go from ten percent to eighty.
24:23
Speaker 1: You have all the storage which is backed.
24:25
Speaker 3: Up, and if any of those refineries were taken completely
24:28
Speaker 3: to zero, that's not I mean, it takes a while,
24:30
Speaker 3: you know, for everything to spin back up, and you
24:33
Speaker 3: still have all these shifts.
24:34
Speaker 1: The UAE left OPEC.
24:36
Speaker 3: They're going to be pumping as much as they possibly can,
24:39
Speaker 3: Saudi Arabia, you know, and others. It could be even
24:41
Speaker 3: a price war, which could cause problems. So there's just
24:44
Speaker 3: going to be chaos, I think in the markets for
24:46
Speaker 3: you probably at least a year or so to come.
24:48
Speaker 2: So they say in this piece too, that you know,
24:51
Speaker 2: a lot of oil and natural gas producers they you know,
24:55
Speaker 2: some of them shut their wells, some of the oil fields.
24:59
Speaker 2: There was signific damage that occurred during the war as well,
25:03
Speaker 2: So you know, are you going to do the difficult
25:05
Speaker 2: work of bringing everything back online, of repairing everything when
25:08
Speaker 2: things continued to be uncertain at least for the sixty
25:11
Speaker 2: day period. According to this New York Times report, Gulf
25:14
Speaker 2: country slash up to fifteen million barrels a day of
25:17
Speaker 2: oil production this spring. That's nearly fifteen percent of global supply.
25:23
Speaker 2: So you have to judge, okay, is it worth going
25:26
Speaker 2: back to the production levels we had, which is not
25:29
Speaker 2: a simple and straightforward thing, or are we going to
25:31
Speaker 2: wait a little bit longer and see if this thing
25:33
Speaker 2: really comes to fruition and see how this all completely
25:36
Speaker 2: shakes out. You know, with regard to traffic, in the
25:38
Speaker 2: Strait of Hormuz. We can go ahead and put D
25:41
Speaker 2: four up on the screen here as well, because you
25:45
Speaker 2: can see that we are still a long way from
25:48
Speaker 2: getting back to the normal level of traffic within the strait.
25:54
Speaker 2: This tweet says, claims about Hormos reopening are exactly why
25:57
Speaker 2: we built this. As ships start moving through the strait
25:59
Speaker 2: with AIS and Spot and so on, you'll see it
26:01
Speaker 2: in the index, updated every thirty minutes. So this will
26:05
Speaker 2: certainly be something to pay attention to as we see
26:08
Speaker 2: how companies read the political dynamics and how certain they
26:13
Speaker 2: are that this deal is going to come through and
26:15
Speaker 2: it's going to ultimately be solid. The other thing I
26:18
Speaker 2: was looking at this morning saga is you know, some
26:21
Speaker 2: aspects of the energy market are likely not to go
26:23
Speaker 2: back to normal ever, because I think, just like there
26:26
Speaker 2: were a lot of learnings from Ukraine and Russia, there
26:30
Speaker 2: was a big realization here certainly in other places as well,
26:34
Speaker 2: that as long as you are reliant on global energy markets,
26:38
Speaker 2: your whole economy can be held hostage.
26:41
Speaker 5: Right, you are truly at risk.
26:43
Speaker 2: And so during the course of this war, there was
26:45
Speaker 2: a massive increase in demand for Chinese solar panels, and
26:50
Speaker 2: for ev cars, that technology has really come of age
26:54
Speaker 2: now where it can be a reliable and affordable alternative
26:58
Speaker 2: both at sort of the niche and wide level and
27:00
Speaker 2: also at the individual consumer level. And so countries that
27:04
Speaker 2: have started to shift in that direction are not likely
27:07
Speaker 2: to shift back because they don't want to find themselves
27:09
Speaker 2: in this situation again. And the technology has advanced even
27:13
Speaker 2: in just you know, the several years since the Ukraine
27:16
Speaker 2: War began to make it a much more feasible alternative.
27:20
Speaker 2: So I guess thank you to Trump for helping to
27:22
Speaker 2: speed up the renewable energy transition. We appreciate your servicer.
27:26
Speaker 3: Dean bag I think he was from the Washing Post.
27:28
Speaker 3: You wrote this very interesting story about how BYD should
27:30
Speaker 3: award Trump Salesman of the Year.
27:34
Speaker 1: And I was reading the data.
27:36
Speaker 3: It's unbelievable the amount of cars that they have been
27:40
Speaker 3: able to export and to sell. Actually in the interim
27:43
Speaker 3: last six months. They're actually rolling out all kinds of
27:46
Speaker 3: new technology, which you know, I've been wanting to cover
27:48
Speaker 3: some of this stuff for a while. One of them
27:50
Speaker 3: is a flash charger, which can take your car from
27:53
Speaker 3: ten to seventy percent in five minutes. I mean on
27:56
Speaker 3: a supercharger with the Tesla. I mean you're probably looking.
28:00
Speaker 3: I did it this weekend for at least fifteen, you know,
28:02
Speaker 3: fifteen minutes or so. And that's assuming you know, there's
28:05
Speaker 3: some idiot park next to you, even when there's five
28:07
Speaker 3: other stalls that are open.
28:09
Speaker 6: That the chargers are broken or the targets. Yeah, I mean,
28:11
Speaker 6: I will say the Teslam Teslas charges are never broken.
28:14
Speaker 6: But the what is it ev America or not never broken?
28:17
Speaker 6: But I forget exactly what they are.
28:19
Speaker 3: The private other companies are awful in terms of the infrastructure.
28:22
Speaker 1: But I saw that and I was like, man, I
28:24
Speaker 1: mean if.
28:24
Speaker 3: You if you make charging similar to just filling up
28:27
Speaker 3: a gas you know, a gas tank, like that is
28:30
Speaker 3: changes the whole ball game. Yeah, I even saw. I
28:32
Speaker 3: think they can go ten to ninety I think in
28:34
Speaker 3: ten minutes, which is shocking, right for that's for hundreds
28:38
Speaker 3: of miles to charge to be able to go, like,
28:41
Speaker 3: I don't know, I mean I see that, and I
28:43
Speaker 3: see also you have this feeling of abandonment by the
28:47
Speaker 3: United States in all of these different countries. We talked
28:50
Speaker 3: a lot about Asia over the last several months. Well,
28:54
Speaker 3: it's going to be very difficult for them to keep
28:56
Speaker 3: a superior product and to really just like align itself
29:01
Speaker 3: with America over this period. I really do think you
29:04
Speaker 3: know that this we will live with the consequences of
29:06
Speaker 3: that for a really long time. On top of Tesla,
29:09
Speaker 3: I mean, if you look, they don't they don't even
29:11
Speaker 3: want to be a car company anymore. That's one kind
29:13
Speaker 3: of thing which is crazy. They want to become a
29:15
Speaker 3: robotaxi and robot company.
29:17
Speaker 1: They have. They want nothing to do with the car business.
29:20
Speaker 3: They've ended the production of some of their models explicitly
29:23
Speaker 3: just to move to what is it, cybercab, their robotaxi
29:26
Speaker 3: and then two robots. They say it in their own
29:28
Speaker 3: you know, production documents, so they're almost acquiescing in certain ways.
29:32
Speaker 3: So anyway, yeah, I mean it's a tangent, but I
29:34
Speaker 3: was fascinated by that in terms of how the war
29:37
Speaker 3: could significantly accelerate EV adoption in the rest of the world,
29:41
Speaker 3: which is de facto good for China.
29:43
Speaker 1: Yeah, and for their market.
29:44
Speaker 2: I mean, the only reason our domestic car producers are
29:47
Speaker 2: competitive in the EV market at all is because we
29:50
Speaker 2: cannot buy like I mean, it would be it would
29:53
Speaker 2: be over for them if we were allowed to purchase
29:56
Speaker 2: the vehicles because they're just more technologically advanced. And yeah,
30:00
Speaker 2: if we had the infrastructure here and we had that
30:03
Speaker 2: level of tech, it would be, you know, only a
30:05
Speaker 2: matter of time before the full transition happened, because the
30:08
Speaker 2: technology genuinely is superior. Like not having to go to
30:10
Speaker 2: the gas station, Philip is great. There's less maintenance on
30:12
Speaker 2: the car, not having to get the little light coming on.
30:14
Speaker 2: Oh you got to get your oil changed again.
30:16
Speaker 5: It's great.
30:17
Speaker 2: The way they drive is fantastic. It is going to
30:19
Speaker 2: be the future. It's just a matter of time. And
30:22
Speaker 2: you know, the Trump administration has this like ideological war
30:24
Speaker 2: on evs and any sort of renewable energy that has
30:27
Speaker 2: precluded us from moving more aggressively in that direction. But
30:31
Speaker 2: ultimately I think the technology will win out.
30:34
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's certainly possible. All right, let's get to the polls.
30:39
Speaker 2: Very interesting interview with a Maga grandma who was a
30:43
Speaker 2: big Trump supporter and now says she is so upset
30:47
Speaker 2: over the price increases that she is seeing and the
30:49
Speaker 2: Trump economy that she is having literal panic attacks.
30:53
Speaker 5: Let's take a listen to what she had to say.
30:54
Speaker 7: I actually have panic attacks.
30:58
Speaker 5: I've had a couple this past week.
31:01
Speaker 7: And I get very emotional over it. I don't want
31:06
Speaker 7: to work anymore, but I can't afford to retire.
31:10
Speaker 2: Obviously, President Trump is immensely wealthy, has been wealthy since
31:14
Speaker 2: he was borne.
31:15
Speaker 1: Do you think he understands No, he.
31:20
Speaker 7: Hasn't lived it. To understand it. He sees it, he
31:23
Speaker 7: has not lived it. He needs to live it. Wear
31:27
Speaker 7: the clothes, wear the shoes. Wear your Walmart clothes, wear
31:30
Speaker 7: your Walmart shoes, do your thrift store shopping. Don't eat steaks.
31:38
Speaker 7: I don't get to go out to dinner. It's not
31:40
Speaker 7: an overnight thing. But it's been two years now. You
31:43
Speaker 7: said you'd bring down the grocery prices. Literally, I must
31:47
Speaker 7: be the most angry person when I grocery shop because
31:50
Speaker 7: I buy the same things every week, and I see
31:55
Speaker 7: it jump every week. It is not every couple months,
31:58
Speaker 7: it's literally every week.
32:00
Speaker 5: So she is not happy.
32:02
Speaker 2: Hard to imagine that woman enthusiastically turning up to vote
32:05
Speaker 2: for Republicans in the midterms given her upset over their handle.
32:09
Speaker 5: Does that means you'll vote for Democrats? No? Probably not.
32:11
Speaker 2: Is she one that just says, you know what I
32:13
Speaker 2: got other things to do on election day. I'm just
32:15
Speaker 2: not showing up. This party does not deserve my support
32:17
Speaker 2: at this moment. That seems very likely, if not probable.
32:21
Speaker 2: And there was a ride of the New York Times
32:23
Speaker 2: of their recent polling with regard to a group that
32:26
Speaker 2: has long been considered Trump's strongest base.
32:28
Speaker 5: Of support, which is the white working class.
32:31
Speaker 2: And they are in a very different mindset for these
32:35
Speaker 2: midterms versus where they were for the twenty eighteen midterms.
32:39
Speaker 2: We could put this next element up on the screen.
32:41
Speaker 2: So back in twenty eighteen, working class voters approved of
32:45
Speaker 2: Trump on the economy by thirty plus points, So whatever
32:48
Speaker 2: else concerns they may have had, they were.
32:50
Speaker 5: Like, look, this is working for me. Okay.
32:52
Speaker 2: I feel like I've got more money in my pocket.
32:54
Speaker 2: I feel like things are speeding along by thirty points.
32:57
Speaker 5: Okay.
32:58
Speaker 2: Now they disapprove of his handling of the economy by
33:02
Speaker 2: as much as that margin, so minus thirty points. And
33:06
Speaker 2: then they have a deeper look at the way some
33:10
Speaker 2: of these voters are feeling about Trump, and that really
33:13
Speaker 2: is a night and day difference between this term and
33:17
Speaker 2: the last time he was in office. Sore where I
33:19
Speaker 2: think A big part of the reason he got back
33:20
Speaker 2: into office is because people looked at that time and
33:23
Speaker 2: were like, well, I felt pretty good about the economy then,
33:24
Speaker 2: and I feel pretty bad about the economy now. So
33:27
Speaker 2: you know, this guy's his businessman, that's his core brand. Now,
33:31
Speaker 2: between not only the tariffs, but obviously the terrorsts and
33:34
Speaker 2: the Iran war, people feel completely differently. Where his lowest
33:39
Speaker 2: approval ratings are on the economy, on inflation, and on
33:42
Speaker 2: cost of living. So when you consider, you know, how
33:46
Speaker 2: will these midterms compare with what was a very negative
33:49
Speaker 2: midterm result for them in twenty eighteen, I think all
33:51
Speaker 2: the signs are there that this will be an even
33:53
Speaker 2: bigger way for Democrats.
33:54
Speaker 3: I think what's interesting about the working class polls and
33:58
Speaker 3: if you read, you know, very deeply into all of
34:00
Speaker 3: these numbers, the blue collar white voters, and that Maga
34:03
Speaker 3: Grandma is like a perfect example. Now, these people are
34:05
Speaker 3: not Democrats, Like, It's actually very clear. And I think
34:08
Speaker 3: even you know, one of our guests yesterday was talking
34:10
Speaker 3: about this as well with young men. Yeah yeah, yeah,
34:13
Speaker 3: Luke was like, look, these people aren't Dems, but they're
34:16
Speaker 3: still mad and being mad you know, sometimes they can
34:19
Speaker 3: be converted a significant slice, and ultimately, as the tried
34:22
Speaker 3: expression goes, it comes down to turn out. But in
34:25
Speaker 3: twenty eighteen, the white working class had a very like
34:29
Speaker 3: low drop in the amount of approval that Donald Trump
34:31
Speaker 3: has had. But now, I mean, you're near forty percent
34:35
Speaker 3: in terms of the reservoir of goodwill, it's completely evaporated.
34:39
Speaker 1: I also think it was such a.
34:40
Speaker 3: Potent talking point back in twenty twenty four, Make America
34:45
Speaker 3: twenty nineteen again?
34:46
Speaker 1: How could somebody not want that?
34:48
Speaker 3: I mean, you know, you had low inflation, you had
34:50
Speaker 3: decent growth. Yes, you know what was the famous saying
34:52
Speaker 3: that they would always be like all I had were
34:54
Speaker 3: some bad tweets. It's like, yeah, okay, I mean, seems
34:57
Speaker 3: tolerable in comparison to what we've just said to experience
35:00
Speaker 3: over the last four years. But now when you have
35:03
Speaker 3: a bad economy, you have no reduction inflation, you actually
35:06
Speaker 3: an increase in the overall inflation, you have no change
35:09
Speaker 3: in overall housing, and you have how long has Trump
35:11
Speaker 3: been an office?
35:12
Speaker 1: Almost two years now, it was a year and a
35:14
Speaker 1: half or so.
35:15
Speaker 3: An almost total and complete focus at this point on
35:19
Speaker 3: foreign affairs, with the signature achievement and you know, memory
35:23
Speaker 3: ultimately when we write the history books, you know, on
35:26
Speaker 3: the admin this is it. And everybody knows it, including
35:28
Speaker 3: the people who are involved from the Israeli side and
35:31
Speaker 3: from you know, the anti war side. Everybody knows that
35:34
Speaker 3: war ultimately defines everything about your presidency. And so that's
35:39
Speaker 3: what he decided to make his ultimate gamble on. And
35:42
Speaker 3: with the economy continuing in the direction that it already
35:45
Speaker 3: was even before the Iran War, on top of what
35:47
Speaker 3: just happened, it's very obvious even those people coming back,
35:51
Speaker 3: it's going to be very, very difficult. You would have
35:52
Speaker 3: to see a massive material change in the US economy,
35:55
Speaker 3: which on autopilot we know that's not happening.
35:58
Speaker 1: Significant government intervention.
36:00
Speaker 2: Ones ties in with the block we just did about
36:02
Speaker 2: how look, you may have a deal, it may even
36:05
Speaker 2: come together in sixty days. There's still going to be months,
36:07
Speaker 2: and the Trump administration is outright saying months of disruption
36:11
Speaker 2: to the energy markets. Things are not going to just
36:14
Speaker 2: go back to the way that they were. And voters
36:17
Speaker 2: are understand where to place the blame because he I mean,
36:21
Speaker 2: I think because he has such a you know, larger
36:24
Speaker 2: than life personality, takes such personal control over everything anyway.
36:28
Speaker 2: And then also because the terriffs and the war are
36:31
Speaker 2: directly laid at his feet, so you know why you're
36:35
Speaker 2: paying more at the pump. And you know the other
36:38
Speaker 2: piece soager is he hasn't done himself any favors rhetorically.
36:41
Speaker 2: When you come out and you say, quote, I love
36:43
Speaker 2: the inflation. Yes, when you come out and you say
36:47
Speaker 2: I don't think about American's financial situation at all. You
36:51
Speaker 2: don't think Democrats are going to run that on a
36:53
Speaker 2: loop until election day one hundred percent as they should.
36:57
Speaker 2: And you know you can claim it was out of context.
36:59
Speaker 2: We play for you the entire context.
37:01
Speaker 7: No, he was.
37:02
Speaker 2: He was articulating exactly what it sounded like he was articulating.
37:06
Speaker 2: And I think that comes through in that woman's comments
37:08
Speaker 2: as well, where she says he hasn't lived it, so
37:10
Speaker 2: he doesn't understand. I want him to go on wear
37:11
Speaker 2: the Walmart clothes and know what it's like for us
37:14
Speaker 2: struggling to get by. Another area that's interesting to put
37:18
Speaker 2: the last element here up on the screen is there
37:20
Speaker 2: was a lot of fanfare about the significant gains that
37:23
Speaker 2: Trump had made among working class Latino men in particular,
37:27
Speaker 2: but among Latinos overall, Man that has also fallen off
37:31
Speaker 2: a cliff. You now have sixty four percent of Latinos
37:35
Speaker 2: with a disapproval of Trump, only thirty four percent approve.
37:39
Speaker 5: Seventy seven percent of.
37:40
Speaker 2: Voters between ages eighteen and twenty nine disapprove of Trump
37:43
Speaker 2: compared to twenty one percent who approve. So also the vaunted,
37:47
Speaker 2: you know, improvement with young voters that has all dissipated. Again,
37:51
Speaker 2: that doesn't mean these people have become like you know,
37:53
Speaker 2: resistance liberal Democrats super excited to vote for like Roy
37:58
Speaker 2: Cooper in North Carolina or whatever. But are these tend
38:02
Speaker 2: to be infrequent voters.
38:03
Speaker 5: They're just not going to show up.
38:04
Speaker 2: They're just they're they're going to register, They're discussed by
38:07
Speaker 2: staying home on election day. The only group where Trump
38:11
Speaker 2: has maintained solid support is with Republicans, and even there,
38:15
Speaker 2: the percent that say that they strongly approve of him
38:17
Speaker 2: has fallen. And that is a really significant change from
38:21
Speaker 2: you know, the entirety of his political career since he
38:24
Speaker 2: really came on the scene in twenty fourteen, twenty fifteen.
38:27
Speaker 2: So you know, that also is going to have an
38:30
Speaker 2: impact on midterm enthusiasm and who ultimately shows up to
38:33
Speaker 2: vote the thing of the You know, I don't know
38:36
Speaker 2: whether he truly doesn't care, but he sure it certainly
38:38
Speaker 2: acts like he doesn't really care what happens in the
38:40
Speaker 2: midterms anyway. No, I guess you could make an argument
38:43
Speaker 2: that the very fact that he made such a push
38:45
Speaker 2: for a deal right now is because he was concerned
38:48
Speaker 2: about the political impact. But there's just no real side
38:52
Speaker 2: that this is something he's focused on.
38:53
Speaker 3: I have no inside information. This is my theory of
38:56
Speaker 3: observing this man now for a decade, depressing I've professional
39:01
Speaker 3: life trying to psycho analyze this person. I think the
39:04
Speaker 3: way that JD and the Rick koffin all those guys
39:07
Speaker 3: got to him was this, sir, and look at the
39:09
Speaker 3: way that they're selling it.
39:10
Speaker 1: We're going to transform the entire Middle East. The way
39:14
Speaker 1: that they sold it to him is like the lemon
39:16
Speaker 1: will building. It's like, you will.
39:18
Speaker 3: Bring peace, the peace maker, Trump, the peacemaker to Persia,
39:23
Speaker 3: the first of his name, Donald Trump, you know, to
39:26
Speaker 3: march in the gates of Persia. And he loves that, right,
39:29
Speaker 3: you know, he loved the idea of conquering it. He
39:31
Speaker 3: loves even more the idea of normalizing relations with the
39:35
Speaker 3: whole region. That's why only Trump could attack them, demand
39:38
Speaker 3: unconditional surrender, and then turn them into an economic powerhouse.
39:41
Speaker 3: Like literally nobody else could do that. But that's how
39:44
Speaker 3: they appeal to his vanities, like you will appear in
39:46
Speaker 3: this historic peace deal, and that's the way that we'll
39:49
Speaker 3: get everything going.
39:50
Speaker 1: These Raelies did it to him, that's how they got
39:52
Speaker 1: him to attack.
39:52
Speaker 3: In the first place. So the you know, the other
39:54
Speaker 3: side basically did the same thing. I don't think he
39:56
Speaker 3: cares whatsoever about the midterms because the administration has given
40:00
Speaker 3: up on domestic concerns again, Like, if you vote for
40:03
Speaker 3: Republicans in the midterm elections, what are you voting for? Right?
40:06
Speaker 1: Like what? Well, And it's not like there's nothing on
40:09
Speaker 1: the table. There's not even like a deal nothing. Yeah.
40:11
Speaker 7: Yeah.
40:11
Speaker 2: And the only thing that they really worked with Congress
40:14
Speaker 2: on at all was the big beautiful.
40:15
Speaker 1: Bill correct which is gone, which has done been wiped out.
40:18
Speaker 2: Right Yeah, so yeah, I mean he does when he
40:22
Speaker 2: wants to do something, he just does it through executive
40:24
Speaker 2: order and implements it and then dares the courts to
40:28
Speaker 2: pull him back, which they mostly haven't done, so he
40:31
Speaker 2: doesn't really care that much about Congress. He himself is
40:35
Speaker 2: immune from criminal investigations of any sort of you know,
40:39
Speaker 2: wrongdoing or as many corrupt dealings, et cetera.
40:42
Speaker 5: So while obviously it's.
40:43
Speaker 2: Going to be uncomfortable for a lot of Republicans who
40:46
Speaker 2: are facing subpoenas and various investigations if Democrats are in control,
40:50
Speaker 2: like Trump doesn't care about them either, So I think
40:54
Speaker 2: it's genuine. When that was another thing he said, he said,
40:56
Speaker 2: I don't care about the midterms. Memory he said he
40:58
Speaker 2: said that, and I think he's right. I think he's
41:00
Speaker 2: telling the truth there. I don't think that he thinks
41:02
Speaker 2: about it all that much, because if he did, then
41:05
Speaker 2: you might see some some different moves. I don't think
41:07
Speaker 2: he'd be out there saying I love the inflation and
41:09
Speaker 2: I don't care about your financial situation. If he was
41:11
Speaker 2: really thinking about those political consequences.
41:13
Speaker 3: You really should care because it's going to be Clinton
41:16
Speaker 3: two point zero if the Dems win, I mean, really
41:18
Speaker 3: is going to be a nightmare.
41:20
Speaker 2: Well, the reason you should care is because of that
41:21
Speaker 2: legacy piece, because you know, I mean, it's already his
41:25
Speaker 2: legacy is already going to be a mess, whether he
41:27
Speaker 2: knows it or not. But if you spend the last
41:29
Speaker 2: two years of your presidency just having you know, various
41:32
Speaker 2: of your officials like under this, under scrutiny for corrupt dealings,
41:36
Speaker 2: and you know, if it's just investigation after investigation, and
41:40
Speaker 2: that's what the entire news cycle is about, day after
41:42
Speaker 2: day after day, it's yeah, it's not going to be
41:45
Speaker 2: a great legacy.
41:46
Speaker 5: Builder for you.
41:46
Speaker 1: Yeah.
41:47
Speaker 3: I mean, seriously, people should recall, like the Clinton administration,
41:50
Speaker 3: they're not There's some modern histories of ninety six to
41:54
Speaker 3: two thousand, it was a non stop the Kenneth Star nonsense,
41:59
Speaker 3: like it would just went on forever, like.
42:02
Speaker 1: That is what modern Fox News is built off of.
42:05
Speaker 3: Lewinsky and ken Starr and Whitewater and the Rose Law.
42:09
Speaker 3: Like it was oh my god, Like no, no president
42:12
Speaker 3: would want to live through that. I mean you can
42:14
Speaker 3: even see remember some of the Obama administration too. Whenever
42:18
Speaker 3: he had to deal with the Republican Congress, I mean,
42:20
Speaker 3: it was over for him. They tried to do the
42:23
Speaker 3: Grand Bargain on Social Security and from that point forward,
42:26
Speaker 3: that's why he did the Iron Deal. Actually, in retrospect,
42:28
Speaker 3: that's why he became obsessed with foreign affairs.
42:30
Speaker 1: He couldn't do anything else. So it just that's just
42:33
Speaker 1: with the House.
42:34
Speaker 3: Now imagine with both parts, you know, both the House
42:37
Speaker 3: and the Senate. Yeah, nothing, It'll turn to a nightmare.
42:40
Speaker 3: You have total subpoena power. Every day of your White
42:44
Speaker 3: House and administration will be dealt with a new attack,
42:47
Speaker 3: a new hearing, a new trial. I mean they'll put
42:50
Speaker 3: him on trial. I mean, who even knows right? And
42:52
Speaker 3: they have, you know, all of the abilt Every every
42:54
Speaker 3: single member of Congress will be required or every single
42:57
Speaker 3: Cabinet official will be live in before Capitol Hill.
43:00
Speaker 1: Every guy who ever.
43:00
Speaker 3: Served in DOGE will have a million dollars in private
43:03
Speaker 3: legal bills, like it's gonna be.
43:05
Speaker 2: Epstein investigators, cover up investigations. All the stuff that you
43:09
Speaker 2: that he clearly did not want to talk about is
43:12
Speaker 2: going to be drag front and center every single day.
43:14
Speaker 2: And I think at this point, I think Democrats will
43:16
Speaker 2: take the House. I think it's more likely than not
43:18
Speaker 2: that they take the Senate as well, which is really
43:20
Speaker 2: crazy because like the landscape for them was so difficult
43:24
Speaker 2: coming in.
43:25
Speaker 5: They have to win in places.
43:26
Speaker 2: Like Ohio and Alaska or Texas, to be able to
43:30
Speaker 2: take the Senate. And yet I think, given you know
43:33
Speaker 2: the numbers that we just showed you, I think that
43:34
Speaker 2: is more likely than not.
43:36
Speaker 5: But you never know. We've seen crazy things happening.
43:39
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, Harry Innton gave that warning on the
43:42
Speaker 3: generic ballot. He was like, look, Dems are you know,
43:44
Speaker 3: they're doing well, but they're still not exactly exactly where
43:46
Speaker 3: they need to because there's still a lot of dissatisfaction
43:49
Speaker 3: with the Democratic Party. I think the problem with this
43:51
Speaker 3: analysis is that people may not like the Democratic Party.
43:54
Speaker 3: People didn't love the Republican Party either in twenty ten,
43:57
Speaker 3: but they hated Obama where they stayed home, so it
43:59
Speaker 3: could work out to their benefit. All Right, thank you
44:01
Speaker 3: guys so much for watching. We appreciate it. We're about
44:03
Speaker 3: to do the Ama so you could stick around for that,
44:06
Speaker 3: or I guess you will have watched it already by
44:08
Speaker 3: the time this comes out. There'll be at Wednesday show.
44:10
Speaker 3: We'll see They'll see you then,