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Is AI coming to take your job? · The Financial Exchange Show

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Welcome back to the Financial Exchange. It's Mike,
1:13
Speaker 2: Mark and Tucker with you on a Tuesday. Stocks in
1:15
Speaker 2: negative territory here been bumping around the negative one tenth
1:21
Speaker 2: to half a percent range all morning. We've got the
1:24
Speaker 2: Dow currently off one hundred and sixteen points one quarter
1:27
Speaker 2: of one percent, the S and P five hundred off
1:29
Speaker 2: twenty points one third of a percent, in the Nasdaq
1:31
Speaker 2: off ninety one points or about one half of one percent.
1:35
Speaker 2: The Rust two thousands actually flat for the day. In
1:37
Speaker 2: the bond market, we did see the thirty year treasury
1:41
Speaker 2: bond hit that five percent yield briefly before trending back down.
1:46
Speaker 2: Yields not moving too much today. As of the moment,
1:49
Speaker 2: the yield on the ten yure Treasury sitting at four
1:52
Speaker 2: point four eight three percent. Oil prices down a bit,
1:56
Speaker 2: down to about half percent at the moment, sixty two
1:59
Speaker 2: dollars thirty eight cents per barrel on the West Texas crude,
2:04
Speaker 2: and the national average for a gallon of gas sitting
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Speaker 2: at three dollars and eighteen cents. Speaking of ghastly, I
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Speaker 2: had to buy a new minivan recently. Our our ten
2:13
Speaker 2: year old one actually accidentally got totaled in a car accident,
2:16
Speaker 2: so everyone was safe, which was most important. But we
2:19
Speaker 2: were in the market for a new minivan. It's a
2:22
Speaker 2: new Toyota Siena. I've talked about my lame infatuation with
2:26
Speaker 2: minivans at length on this program. Would either of you
2:28
Speaker 2: like to guess, so it's a hybrid engine all we'll drive,
2:31
Speaker 2: Would you like to guess how much range we get
2:33
Speaker 2: out of this new car. It's a hybrid, it's not
2:35
Speaker 2: a plug in, it's just a regular old hybrid.
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Speaker 3: Yeah, okay, so if it's a hybrid, then you're probably
2:40
Speaker 3: in the high thirties for a minivan.
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Speaker 2: So yeah, miles per down. But like with the gas
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Speaker 2: plus the electric motor, we are getting a six hundred
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Speaker 2: and thirty mile range on this thing. Our previous one
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Speaker 2: was like three hundred. I don't know. I'm just impressed
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Speaker 2: by that because I only drive really old cars.
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Speaker 3: Where you're asking miles per gallon, yeah, yeah.
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Speaker 2: The miles per gallon is like thirties. But the range
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Speaker 2: on one of these vehicles, I said range, not miles
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Speaker 2: per ballon, Tucker, don't get all frustrated when you give
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Speaker 2: the wrong answer.
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Speaker 3: I give the right answer. Go ahead, I don't know.
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Speaker 2: I've just impressed that I'm gonna be able to drive
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Speaker 2: for six hundred plus miles on one tank of gas
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Speaker 2: and not have to refill. I'm very happy with that income.
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Speaker 3: In a minivan.
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Speaker 4: Look good for you, Michael.
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Speaker 2: It's cool, all right, Get over yourselves. The minivans are hip,
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Speaker 2: they are back in fashion, and I look cool in
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Speaker 2: my all black minivan. Now, okay? Uh anything else catching
3:29
Speaker 2: your eyes? In markets this morning?
3:31
Speaker 4: If you put your flashers on, do people think there's
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Speaker 4: a funeral? Mind?
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Speaker 2: They do? Yeah? Yeah, it does look a bit like
3:37
Speaker 2: it does look a bit like a hearse. I'm aware
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Speaker 2: of that, so I try not to put the flashers on.
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Speaker 2: But yeah, if driving really slowly, sometimes a copple blast
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Speaker 2: by on his motorcycle and try and clear traffic for me.
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Speaker 2: So it's happened a couple times.
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Speaker 4: Now, you got the funeral parlor to awake?
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Speaker 3: You don't have to. You got the captain's chairs on
3:54
Speaker 3: those things? Does you got the captain's chairs?
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Speaker 2: Is the pope wear funny hat?
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Speaker 1: Oh?
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Speaker 3: Look at captain chair leather? Does a bear poop in
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Speaker 3: the woods?
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Speaker 2: I only have two of these, so stop asking questions.
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Speaker 2: In terms of big market news today, we did have
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Speaker 2: Home Depot earnings out this morning. We'll have lows tomorrow.
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Speaker 2: I believe that TJX is going as well. In terms
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Speaker 2: of Home Depot. The big news, other than the earnings themselves,
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Speaker 2: which were fine nothing great, was that they are not
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Speaker 2: raising prices. This made headlines because Walmart just the other
4:32
Speaker 2: day said that they would be raising prices in the
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Speaker 2: face of tariffs. Big differences between Home Depot and Walmart.
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Speaker 2: Obviously in terms of sourcing of products. Home Depot claims
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Speaker 2: that next year the United States will be the only
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Speaker 2: country that accounts for more than ten percent of the
4:48
Speaker 2: products sold in their stores. The other piece would be
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Speaker 2: the operating margins, you know. The EBITDA margins for a
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Speaker 2: Home Depot, for example, are about triple those of Walmart.
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Speaker 2: So again, not that any company wants to be absorbing
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Speaker 2: price increases, but they're just a higher margin business than
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Speaker 2: your Walmart, which partly operates in the grocery business and
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Speaker 2: therefore has very very low margins. I will be interested
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Speaker 2: to hear hey does TJX, for example, which almost undoubtedly
5:14
Speaker 2: sources much more of their material outside of the United States.
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Speaker 2: Do they talk about price increases. Did they use the
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Speaker 2: Walmart cover as kind of that cover to be able
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Speaker 2: to raise prices. We will see when they report earnings
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Speaker 2: later this week. Our top story of the hour is
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Speaker 2: from Connor Sen saying that the next great job churn
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Speaker 2: is already starting.
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Speaker 3: And in you know, a.
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Speaker 2: Great picture for this piece, this dystopian banner from the
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Speaker 2: streets of San Francisco Artisans, which is the name of
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Speaker 2: the company that's promoting the AI tool. Artisans won't complain
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Speaker 2: about work life balance, and it's this picture of a
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Speaker 2: presumably woman that's supposed to look like a robot employee,
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Speaker 2: and it's all about the start of the job and
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Speaker 2: what types of jobs are starting to be affected by
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Speaker 2: artificial intelligence. And I just I had a good quote
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Speaker 2: on this from a random person on x formerly Twitter quote.
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Speaker 2: The future was supposed to free up our time from
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Speaker 2: work so we could spend it on higher pursuits. Instead,
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Speaker 2: we created AI that makes art while we all work,
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Speaker 2: and that is kind of the weird dystopian moment that
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Speaker 2: we're in. AIS of today are pretty good at creating
6:29
Speaker 2: new logos. They're fairly good at making you know, cartoon
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Speaker 2: artwork for advertisements. They're pretty good at impersonating humans and
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Speaker 2: you know, writing a poem for you or summarizing an
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Speaker 2: article for you. They're not great at flipping burgers at
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Speaker 2: the local McDonald's. They are not too good at driving
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Speaker 2: your car for you or restocking the shelves at Walmart.
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Speaker 2: And I just find it interesting that, hey, this is
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Speaker 2: where the job disruption is going to come there for
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Speaker 2: is maybe not so much in the low income jobs
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Speaker 2: that everybody thought were going to be wiped out right.
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Speaker 2: You know, two decades ago, when everybody was talking about
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Speaker 2: raising the minimum wage in certain states, the conversation was
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Speaker 2: all about, well, nobody's gonna be working in McDonald's anymore
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Speaker 2: because robots are going to do that job instead. It's yeah,
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Speaker 2: we're not going to need law clerks in legal offices
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Speaker 2: anymore because I can have an AI tool that just
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Speaker 2: summarizes fifteen legal cases for me and gives me a
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Speaker 2: pretty good estimation of it. Or we're not going to
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Speaker 2: need graphic designers as much as we used to because
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Speaker 2: I can have an AI tool that will design fifteen
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Speaker 2: different logos for me, and I can just choose the
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Speaker 2: one I like best. I don't know. It's just it's
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Speaker 2: very interesting to me where this is going. But that's
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Speaker 2: where the churn seems to be coming from.
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Speaker 4: But the article makes it. What these researchers did is
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Speaker 4: kind of I'm skimming the paper here is you talk.
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Speaker 4: What they ask is how disruptive is generative AI likely
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Speaker 4: to be here? We seeing any evidence that what happened
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Speaker 4: in manufacturing in the seventies and eighties, the massive i'll
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Speaker 4: call it hollowing out. Even though that's a little bit dramatic.
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Speaker 4: There was a huge shift from manufacturing to services over
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Speaker 4: the past several decades.
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Speaker 2: And you can play part of that in globalization, but
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Speaker 2: a lot of it on automation.
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Speaker 4: You don't really get into that. Yeah, yeah, that's really
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Speaker 4: the key point technological. Because it happened all over the world,
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Speaker 4: we tend to lament that we don't make anything here anymore.
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Speaker 4: Every advanced country would would make a similar it would
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Speaker 4: have similar complaints. So is generative AI. These researchers ask,
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Speaker 4: I mean that the connor Cent article was like almost
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Speaker 4: as long as the research paper, So I just went
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Speaker 4: to the research paper. Now this is not peer reviewed,
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Speaker 4: meaning they put it out there. Ye, but no publication
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Speaker 4: has accepted it yet I don't know. There may be
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Speaker 4: some big problem. So one of the problems with looking
8:54
Speaker 4: at something that's not peer reviewed. These people run to
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Speaker 4: something called Social Science Research Network, where people just host
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Speaker 4: their work before it gets accepted by a peer reviewed journal.
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Speaker 4: The peer review journal process is a pain. I get that,
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Speaker 4: But all the data here could be made up. I'm
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Speaker 4: not saying that it is, but this could be total
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Speaker 4: this could be total BS. But it's nevertheless an interesting approach.
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Speaker 4: They ask, what if the same thing that happen to
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Speaker 4: manufacturing due to, as you point out, automation and other factors,
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Speaker 4: happens to white collar jobs that generative AI can gradually replace.
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Speaker 4: What is that likely to do to unemployment? Say here
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Speaker 4: in Boston, which they talk about in which this article covers,
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Speaker 4: where unemployment has gone up from about three and a
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Speaker 4: half to a little over four percent, is that due
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Speaker 4: to generative aim? Very hard to tease that out, which
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Speaker 4: is where I run into some problems with using this
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Speaker 4: article to make policy or draw conclusions. But nevertheless the
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Speaker 4: author makes the authors of this particular paper make the
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Speaker 4: interesting point that a big shift away from the white
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Speaker 4: collar jobs supporting finance and technology. Other industries could be
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Speaker 4: underway as generative AI replaces what many entry level type jobs,
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Speaker 4: people that filled entry level type jobs have done historically.
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Speaker 4: What are the political implications, What are the demographic implications?
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Speaker 4: They're not necessarily Well, they're bad probably for us here
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Speaker 4: in the Northeast.
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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a fascinating theory.
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Speaker 5: Right.
10:20
Speaker 2: Are the same strengths that made incomes and property values
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Speaker 2: in areas like San Francisco, areas like Boston shoot through
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Speaker 2: the roof over the last quarter century. Are those same
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Speaker 2: factors going to be the one that lead those same
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Speaker 2: areas into some sort of higher unemployment, lower income scenario.
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Speaker 4: On the extreme end of it, is the Boston DC
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Speaker 4: card are going to become like the rust belt of
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Speaker 4: the twenty thirties. The authors of this study say that
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Speaker 4: the downstream effects I'll just read their conclusion very briefly,
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Speaker 4: downstream effects of generative AI appear more benign than the
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Speaker 4: downstream adjustments, which is a euphemism for the enormous displacements
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Speaker 4: that cost people their jobs and livelihoods and cause them
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Speaker 4: to have to move or something far more benign they
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Speaker 4: expect than the adjustments due to the manufacturing shock. So no,
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Speaker 4: no new rust belt, providing we adapt it, make investments
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Speaker 4: in people, make it easier to switch jobs, and stuff
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Speaker 4: like that. So there is a role for policy here.
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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's been a I guess a story that's been
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Speaker 2: nagging at me all year is and I'm focused on Boston,
11:32
Speaker 2: but you can make the same argument of New York
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Speaker 2: or DC, the whole corridor or parts of the West
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Speaker 2: Coast as well. But in a market like Boston, which
11:40
Speaker 2: is so dominated by education, dominated by life sciences finance,
11:46
Speaker 2: is some combination of government cuts plus artificial intelligence going
11:50
Speaker 2: to make the Boston job market look fundamentally different than
11:54
Speaker 2: it did last decade or so. I think it's really
11:56
Speaker 2: tough to tease out and answer to that, But theoretically
11:59
Speaker 2: it's easy to kind of stack those bricks for a
12:04
Speaker 2: for a very different labor market in the Boston area.
12:07
Speaker 2: Given cuts to government work grants.
12:10
Speaker 4: What's solve the housing crisis?
12:11
Speaker 2: On the bright side, what's solve the housing crisis? Rather rapidly?
12:14
Speaker 2: Let's take a quick break when we come back a
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Speaker 3: It's time for sure You're in the Financial Exchange And
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13:50
Speaker 2: Well, anyone hoping for some relief on mortgage rates this
13:54
Speaker 2: year has been badly disappointed. The thirty year fixed rate mortgage,
13:58
Speaker 2: according to Mortgage News Daily, is city at six point
14:00
Speaker 2: nine nine percent. On that jumbo you're up at seven
14:03
Speaker 2: point one percent, and you're not really even saving much
14:06
Speaker 2: money for a fifteen year which is sitting at six
14:08
Speaker 2: point three percent. Tucker, by any chance, do you have
14:11
Speaker 2: our predictions on interest rates sitting around here? Because I
14:15
Speaker 2: think we made do we make mortgage predictions this year?
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Speaker 3: Yeah? This was back in December? Uh, Paul said the
14:22
Speaker 3: low fix was five point eight five, high was seven
14:27
Speaker 3: point one. Chuck had five point two. Is the low
14:29
Speaker 3: high seven point eight? And you had high now and
14:34
Speaker 3: low was six and a half. So what was the
14:36
Speaker 3: high back in December.
14:39
Speaker 2: Seven point one?
14:41
Speaker 1: Ish?
14:42
Speaker 2: Okay, So we haven't gotten back over that. So in
14:46
Speaker 2: any case, that relief does not appear to be on
14:49
Speaker 2: the horizon at the moment. What the Federal Reserve does
14:52
Speaker 2: does not directly affect mortgage rates in any real way.
14:56
Speaker 2: What they control is primarily the shorter end of the
14:59
Speaker 2: curve in the US. They're buying and selling a lot
15:02
Speaker 2: in the way of their existing balance sheet. But recently
15:06
Speaker 2: Fed officials have been I think, echoing a lot of
15:09
Speaker 2: the message from Jerome Powell when it comes to interest rates,
15:13
Speaker 2: which seems to be they're not going anywhere anytime soon.
15:17
Speaker 2: How would you summarize kind of the direction of FED
15:19
Speaker 2: policy right now unless they get removed by the press.
15:24
Speaker 4: The forces of unemployment and inflate. The way they might
15:26
Speaker 4: put it is, the forces of unemployment and inflation appear
15:29
Speaker 4: to be roughly in balance. Maybe there's a slight, slight
15:36
Speaker 4: bias among Fed policymakers toward warring about higher inflation, a
15:42
Speaker 4: slight bias in favor of warning about higher inflation relative
15:44
Speaker 4: to unemployment. I think if you do think so relative
15:46
Speaker 4: to yeah, I do. I think they're really worried about
15:50
Speaker 4: the supply, the splice shock, so to.
15:52
Speaker 2: Be, because of what happens, because I would say that
15:55
Speaker 2: was definitely not the case prior to twenty twenty one.
15:57
Speaker 2: But I think you're right only because of it's an experience, right.
16:01
Speaker 4: Feet and screamed, yeah, no, no, the situation was totally
16:06
Speaker 4: different than twenty twenty. We were generating enough inflation for
16:08
Speaker 4: the previous twelve years. The Fed adopted a new framework
16:12
Speaker 4: in twenty twenty because they wanted inflation expectations up anchored,
16:18
Speaker 4: but up they were far more got it, disinflation. Yeah,
16:21
Speaker 4: be careful what you wish for guys. So no, no,
16:25
Speaker 4: the situation could not be more different today, which is
16:27
Speaker 4: why they're going to revise their so called policy framework
16:29
Speaker 4: again in an effort to reaffirm their commitment to low
16:33
Speaker 4: and stable, which they've defined as two percent inflation. Look this,
16:38
Speaker 4: you made the point that the Fed does not control
16:40
Speaker 4: They don't really control any interest rate, but they exert heavy,
16:43
Speaker 4: heavy influence over short term interest rate. The FED controls
16:45
Speaker 4: the supply of money. Long term interest rates are a
16:48
Speaker 4: function of expected short term rates in the future. Why
16:52
Speaker 4: would you ever buy a ten year bond when I
16:54
Speaker 4: could just buy a one year bond every year and
16:56
Speaker 4: roll it over when it matures.
16:58
Speaker 2: Can you answer that question?
16:59
Speaker 1: I knew it.
16:59
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's because you expect interest rates to change in
17:02
Speaker 4: the interim. Maybe you expect them to go down a lot.
17:05
Speaker 4: You think we're going to return to the twenty tens
17:07
Speaker 4: when interest rates were very, very low. If so, a
17:10
Speaker 4: tenure bond with a yield of four point five percent
17:13
Speaker 4: roughly right now is pretty attractive. Alternatively, maybe you think
17:17
Speaker 4: tariffs and other factors fiscal recklessness, like we're arguably seeing
17:24
Speaker 4: from this new tax plan. I like the tax cuts,
17:26
Speaker 4: but they're not addressing spending. I call that reckless. That's
17:29
Speaker 4: I'm not just just throwing incendiary terms out there, That's
17:32
Speaker 4: what I mean. Maybe you think short term interest rates
17:35
Speaker 4: are going to be higher as high as they are today,
17:37
Speaker 4: maybe a little lower, maybe a little higher over the
17:39
Speaker 4: next ten years, in which case I don't know, it's
17:41
Speaker 4: not really attractive to buy a ten year at four
17:43
Speaker 4: point five percent. I can almost get that on the
17:45
Speaker 4: one maybe now and into the future, and I don't
17:47
Speaker 4: have to assume the risk of rates changing a lot,
17:50
Speaker 4: a lot more than are expected in the interim. So, Mike,
17:53
Speaker 4: the relationship between short and long term interest rates is
17:56
Speaker 4: so complicated that researchers have this this term that they
18:00
Speaker 4: used to describe the difference. It's a little mysterious. It's
18:03
Speaker 4: called the term premium. People don't usually talk about it
18:06
Speaker 4: outside of like a finance class, but it can be
18:08
Speaker 4: inferred from the difference between long and short term and
18:11
Speaker 4: then expected short term interest rates. It all gets a
18:14
Speaker 4: little bit convoluted, but there are there are structured ways
18:18
Speaker 4: to think about it.
18:18
Speaker 2: The Federal reserves current target rate is for four and
18:22
Speaker 2: a quarter to four and a half percent. On that
18:24
Speaker 2: FED funds, we got as high as was it a
18:27
Speaker 2: full percentage point high, five and a quarter was there.
18:29
Speaker 2: So where you've seen that has been on CD offers,
18:33
Speaker 2: on money markets that have all come down by about
18:36
Speaker 2: a percentage point over the course of the last twelve
18:38
Speaker 2: months or so. But what's more interesting to me is
18:40
Speaker 2: when we look out over the next few meetings. So
18:43
Speaker 2: first off, there's a meeting coming up a little bit
18:45
Speaker 2: less than a month from now, ninety five percent chance
18:48
Speaker 2: that FED does not move rates at all from their
18:50
Speaker 2: current levels if we go all the way out to
18:53
Speaker 2: the end of this year. However, this is where you've
18:55
Speaker 2: seen big change of the course of this year. There's
18:59
Speaker 2: the most likely outcome on the CME FED watch tool,
19:02
Speaker 2: which again is not really a good predictor of where
19:05
Speaker 2: rates will end, but rather where people are kind of
19:07
Speaker 2: placing bets about how far rates come down. You've got
19:10
Speaker 2: a thirty nine percent chance that rates are half a
19:14
Speaker 2: percentage point lower than where they are right now. You've
19:17
Speaker 2: got more than fifty percent chance that they're lower in that.
19:19
Speaker 2: But this has changed quite a bit. You know, there
19:21
Speaker 2: is a lot of baked in assumptions about rate cuts
19:24
Speaker 2: coming this year, and they seem to have been wiped
19:27
Speaker 2: pretty much off the board. We've got to take a
19:29
Speaker 2: quick break. We'll cover that a little bit more along
19:30
Speaker 2: with the trivia winner. Next to the Financial.
19:32
Speaker 5: Exchange, bringing the latest financial news straight to your radio
19:44
Speaker 5: every day. It's the Financial Exchange on the Financial Exchange
19:47
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19:55
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Speaker 5: the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
20:04
Speaker 3: Trivia question today was who has had the longest tenure
20:08
Speaker 3: as a cast member on Saturday Night Live. That would
20:13
Speaker 3: be Keenan Thompson. He's been with Saturday Night Live for
20:16
Speaker 3: twenty two seasons, still going strong. He beat out Darryl Hammond,
20:21
Speaker 3: who served for fourteen years on the SNL cast. Nick
20:26
Speaker 3: from Falmouth is our winner today, taking home a Financial
20:29
Speaker 3: Exchange Show t shirt. Congrats to Nick and we played
20:32
Speaker 3: trivia every day here in the Financial Exchamee. See complete
20:36
Speaker 3: contest rules at Financial Exchange Show dot com.
20:39
Speaker 2: The cost of moving freight around the world has increased
20:42
Speaker 2: a bit over the last week, but not nearly as
20:44
Speaker 2: much as some of the worst case predictions that we're
20:47
Speaker 2: out there. There is an index called the Dreary World
20:51
Speaker 2: Container Index WCI, which hit a COVID peak of nearly
20:56
Speaker 2: six thousand dollars. This is the US dollars per feet
21:00
Speaker 2: of container stuff. I think it's Shanghai to La that's
21:06
Speaker 2: how we describe container stuff.
21:07
Speaker 3: Yes, container stuff that hit about.
21:09
Speaker 2: Six thousand dollars back during November of twenty twenty four,
21:15
Speaker 2: and higher during peak COVID times. But as of this week,
21:19
Speaker 2: it's moved up about eight percent off of those recent
21:22
Speaker 2: lows that we saw, indicating to me at least that
21:26
Speaker 2: while there's probably still a lot of stuff moving from
21:29
Speaker 2: Shanghai and all of China over to the United States,
21:33
Speaker 2: it's not so much volume that these countries were unprepared
21:37
Speaker 2: for it, that the United States infrastructure system was not
21:40
Speaker 2: prepared to deal with the volumes. And I don't know,
21:44
Speaker 2: it seems unlikely that we're going to get to a
21:46
Speaker 2: point where it's causing a significant amount of inflation. The
21:49
Speaker 2: pandemic peak on this index, by the way, was ten
21:52
Speaker 2: three hundred and seventy seven dollars back in September of
21:55
Speaker 2: twenty twenty one. So we are sitting about eighty percent
21:58
Speaker 2: below that even with the most recent increase. So could
22:03
Speaker 2: this still result in some you know, measure of inflation
22:07
Speaker 2: that we can discern possible? It's still early. Perhaps, you know,
22:11
Speaker 2: the manufacturers took a little while to fire up over
22:13
Speaker 2: in China and actually get this stuff onto boats. But
22:16
Speaker 2: for the time being at least, and this is Bloomberg's
22:20
Speaker 2: main point too, that you know, feared tsunami of cargo
22:24
Speaker 2: coming from China. They phrased, it looks more like a swell.
22:27
Speaker 2: And some of the data that's behind all this is
22:29
Speaker 2: seemingly back at backing that up at least for the moment.
22:32
Speaker 4: Yeah, the inflation danger I think comes from the tariffs themselves. Yeah,
22:36
Speaker 4: prices getting past.
22:37
Speaker 2: But this was a question mark. You know, we had
22:39
Speaker 2: raised this question as well, like, hey, is it you know,
22:43
Speaker 2: such a demand for goods coming into the US that
22:46
Speaker 2: you're going to snarl up supply chains again, and that's
22:48
Speaker 2: a contributing factor. I wasn't sure. I thought that was
22:52
Speaker 2: a possibility, and you should never be sure. It doesn't
22:56
Speaker 2: seem to be at the moment, which raises other questions,
22:58
Speaker 2: right like our are suppliers buying as much as we
23:03
Speaker 2: thought they would, or are they just saying, hey, buy
23:05
Speaker 2: what we need for the next couple months, let's not
23:07
Speaker 2: worry about the holiday shopping season because we think the
23:09
Speaker 2: tariffs potentially could be even lower. Or is this just
23:13
Speaker 2: a very well oiled supply chain that knows how to
23:16
Speaker 2: deal with this stuff post COVID better than they did.
23:18
Speaker 4: I mean the big risk here. I know we talked
23:20
Speaker 4: about the FED in the last segment, but the big
23:21
Speaker 4: risk to the economy, The big challenge for the FED
23:24
Speaker 4: is that inflation expectations, particularly by the Michigan Survey but
23:29
Speaker 4: by others as well, have gone up. Michigan Survey, they've
23:32
Speaker 4: gone up through the roof high since nineteen eighty one.
23:35
Speaker 4: Inflation expectations feed into actual inflation. They sort of become
23:39
Speaker 4: self fulfilling. The FED. Even if they wanted to ease
23:43
Speaker 4: in response to say the negative GDP report we got
23:46
Speaker 4: in the first quarter and this slight rise in unemployment
23:49
Speaker 4: over the past few months, they probably can't because inflation expectations.
23:54
Speaker 4: Some researchers would argue have become unanchored again like they
23:58
Speaker 4: were during COVID.
23:59
Speaker 2: This was the most recent Michigan sentiments. I want to.
24:03
Speaker 4: Say six six and change and again or something.
24:06
Speaker 2: To explain what that means of the people that this
24:10
Speaker 2: survey spoke to, which has been in place for what
24:13
Speaker 2: eighty years they've been doing these surveys. The average or
24:18
Speaker 2: I don't know if it's average or media expectations over
24:20
Speaker 2: your inflation is now in the mid sixes.
24:23
Speaker 4: And it's that is squarely due to that is clearly
24:27
Speaker 4: unequivocally due to tariffs. So I'm actually impressed that people
24:29
Speaker 4: are internalizing, so to speak, that if this were not
24:33
Speaker 4: my little area, I'm not sure I know what to
24:36
Speaker 4: make of it. It's like when I hear that, as
24:39
Speaker 4: the FDA announced today they're changing their guidance on COVID vaccines,
24:42
Speaker 4: I don't know if I should be mad, happy, or
24:45
Speaker 4: indifferent about that just not my area. But this is
24:47
Speaker 4: a case where I didn't think it's so abstract. I'm
24:50
Speaker 4: not sure. I wasn't sure people would get what tariffs are,
24:53
Speaker 4: and the politicians are obfuscating, Oh they're not you know,
24:56
Speaker 4: they're not taxes, or they are or so you get
24:59
Speaker 4: a lot of noise in there. Yeah they get it.
25:01
Speaker 2: Yeah they seem to.
25:02
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26:06
Speaker 2: The last time I personally bought a car was before
26:10
Speaker 2: this week, was twenty twenty two. When anybody who bought
26:18
Speaker 2: a car back in twenty twenty two remembers how miserable
26:19
Speaker 2: it was. I had to pay like a surcharge just
26:22
Speaker 2: to get the Honda Civic that I wanted above the MSRP.
26:26
Speaker 2: I couldn't find one. It was quite difficult. The market
26:30
Speaker 2: is not quite where it was back then, but we're
26:32
Speaker 2: seeing signs of it. In the used car market. There
26:35
Speaker 2: is less inventory. Prices have not ticked back up month
26:39
Speaker 2: of a month according to the most recent CPI report.
26:41
Speaker 2: But I continue to hear stories about this, and you know,
26:44
Speaker 2: to share a bit about my recent buying experience, which
26:48
Speaker 2: is unique because I don't think there's a lot of
26:50
Speaker 2: minivans out there. But when looking for a new Toyota minivan,
26:56
Speaker 2: I called approximately fifteen dealers in the Massachusetts area who
27:01
Speaker 2: told me that they had none in supply and that
27:05
Speaker 2: they could put me on a waiting list for one
27:07
Speaker 2: that was going to be available in July the sixteenth
27:10
Speaker 2: did have one, and I was able to find one.
27:12
Speaker 2: When I went to go buy it, I was seeing
27:14
Speaker 2: some of the similar things that I saw during the
27:16
Speaker 2: COVID days. You know, they came in with the manufacturing
27:19
Speaker 2: price and they said, you know, normally we would charge
27:22
Speaker 2: you a twenty five hundred dollars market value assessment surcharge
27:26
Speaker 2: on this car because they're so hard to find. But
27:29
Speaker 2: if you make this deal happen today, we're willing to
27:31
Speaker 2: waive that, we'll give it to you for MSRP. And
27:34
Speaker 2: I think you're starting to see signs of that elsewhere
27:36
Speaker 2: in the auto market here and there.
27:38
Speaker 4: Plus, they knew you had a funeral this week and
27:40
Speaker 4: you needed the.
27:41
Speaker 2: I need the black vehicle exactly. Yeah, I had to
27:44
Speaker 2: go attend one of those. But in any case, you
27:48
Speaker 2: are starting to see this in areas of the market.
27:50
Speaker 2: Maybe I'm just a bad negotiator, but here was the answer.
27:53
Speaker 2: I needed a new car, and I called fifteen dealerships
27:56
Speaker 2: and only one of them had the car that I wanted.
27:58
Speaker 2: So I didn't feel like I was a approaching with
28:00
Speaker 2: a really strong negotiating position. But on average, what you're
28:05
Speaker 2: seeing here, according to a piece from Bark and Watch,
28:07
Speaker 2: use car buyers being charged and average six hundred and
28:09
Speaker 2: forty dollars in surprise fees, and seemingly it's the same
28:14
Speaker 2: thing we're seeing from other sellers of goods, which is
28:18
Speaker 2: the tariffs are kind of giving cover for dealerships to
28:21
Speaker 2: tack on fees. Some might call it a bait and switch,
28:24
Speaker 2: some might call it supply and demand. I guess it
28:26
Speaker 2: depends on your perspective. But you know, everything from vin
28:30
Speaker 2: etching wheel locks in other cases just you know, charging
28:33
Speaker 2: higher than standard etching.
28:35
Speaker 4: Can you opt out of that?
28:36
Speaker 2: Yeah?
28:37
Speaker 4: Actually, I really don't want to vent on this.
28:40
Speaker 2: Okay, Reconditioning fees are going for an average of sixteen
28:46
Speaker 2: hundred dollars unused cars. So I mean, these are all
28:50
Speaker 2: the add ons that you get talked into and in
28:53
Speaker 2: you know, in Massachusetts, they actually have to record those
28:55
Speaker 2: conversations in the business office. Have you ever did you
28:57
Speaker 2: notice that when you bought your car a couple of
28:59
Speaker 2: years ago.
29:00
Speaker 4: There was absolutely no recording device in that office. Really,
29:03
Speaker 4: at least I wasn't informed they'd have to disclose.
29:05
Speaker 2: Now, in the office that I went to, there's a
29:08
Speaker 2: giant sign that says recording in progress if you enter
29:11
Speaker 2: this room. Because from what I understand, in Massachusetts, maybe
29:15
Speaker 2: all or at least some of the business offices have
29:18
Speaker 2: to be recorded because they were kind of so badly
29:20
Speaker 2: abused over the last few years. Interested huh, But in their.
29:25
Speaker 4: Own protection, somebody asserts that you did or said you
29:27
Speaker 4: misrepresented something. I bet on balance that benefits dealers.
29:32
Speaker 2: Maybe, but I bet it's also a legal requirement. I
29:37
Speaker 2: doubt that it was the dealers that said, Hey, we're
29:39
Speaker 2: going to voluntarily record all the conversations of our business
29:42
Speaker 2: managers trying to upsell customers on all sorts of protection
29:45
Speaker 2: plans that they may or may not need. But you
29:48
Speaker 2: are seeing this stuff, and it is showing up a
29:51
Speaker 2: little bit more, according to the experts, than it did
29:53
Speaker 2: just a year ago. And again I think that's all
29:57
Speaker 2: supply and demand. There's been a lot of people.
30:00
Speaker 4: Why do they itemize those things? Guys? The price is
30:02
Speaker 4: the price. I assume you're going to clean the car.
30:04
Speaker 4: I assume it's going to have a v in on it.
30:06
Speaker 2: Why assume that, Yeah, I mean.
30:09
Speaker 4: The itemize it. Is there something psychological about that? Are
30:12
Speaker 4: you more willing to pay it if it's itemized?
30:14
Speaker 2: No, but you're more willing to show up at the
30:15
Speaker 2: dealership for the price on the website. That doesn't reflect all.
30:19
Speaker 4: Those extra That was a naive question on.
30:21
Speaker 2: Mine, right, I mean, that's the answer is once they've
30:23
Speaker 2: got you in there, they think they can make that
30:25
Speaker 2: sale and add on all those extras after the fact,
30:29
Speaker 2: just like.
30:29
Speaker 3: Hey, well I got you in here. Uh what do
30:31
Speaker 3: you think about this playcast?
30:32
Speaker 2: I mean, guys, this is no different other than the
30:34
Speaker 2: dollar amounts than buying tickets from ticket Master or airline
30:39
Speaker 2: tickets on you know, on Kayak or whatever tool you use.
30:43
Speaker 2: They advertise the lowest price they can possibly advertise, and
30:46
Speaker 2: then just tack on the baggage fees and the seat
30:48
Speaker 2: choice fees and the recliner fees on top of all
30:51
Speaker 2: of these things in order to get a higher price.
30:55
Speaker 2: Let's take a quick break. When we come back. Stack
30:58
Speaker 2: Roulette is next.
31:00
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31:03
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31:06
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31:25
Speaker 3: The Financial Exchange is a proud partner of the Disabled
31:28
Speaker 3: American Veterans Department of Massachusetts. And as we get set
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31:35
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32:02
Speaker 2: Tucker's hoping to finish in a pr under two hours
32:06
Speaker 2: this year, so it's going to be particularly exciting race.
32:08
Speaker 2: And when is it November?
32:10
Speaker 3: What did I say? November eighth?
32:12
Speaker 2: Yeah? Yeah, I think it's my third or fourth year.
32:15
Speaker 3: Eight Saturday November.
32:16
Speaker 2: Are you gonna run one of these ones? Tucker? Saturday
32:19
Speaker 2: is a.
32:19
Speaker 3: Tough for me, but I'll see if I can make
32:21
Speaker 3: it work fair enough.
32:23
Speaker 2: In the latest story of why social media sucks, two
32:27
Speaker 2: Provident school students and a staff member were brought to
32:29
Speaker 2: the hospital after what's called the chrome book challenge incident,
32:33
Speaker 2: which is where you just stick objects into chrome books,
32:37
Speaker 2: which are little tablets, in order to see if you
32:40
Speaker 2: can destroy them by you know, making them smoke and
32:44
Speaker 2: short circuit and just destroy themselves, which can obviously be
32:47
Speaker 2: a hazard to the chromebook and all those around you.
32:51
Speaker 2: And my point about why social media sucks is that obviously,
32:56
Speaker 2: if you tell a bunch of middle school students that
32:58
Speaker 2: they can stick a staple into a own book and
33:01
Speaker 2: light the thing on fire, then they're gonna do it.
33:04
Speaker 2: And my point with all of this is.
33:06
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm tempted right now.
33:08
Speaker 2: Yeah, Mark is just Itchen did go do this? Kids
33:13
Speaker 2: are not any smarter or dumber than they were thirty
33:17
Speaker 2: years ago in middle school. When I was in Midfield
33:22
Speaker 2: Middle school, a kid poured a gallon of gasoline. Maybe
33:26
Speaker 2: not in a gallon, he poured a significant quantity of
33:28
Speaker 2: gasoline into the bathroom toilet and lit it on fire
33:31
Speaker 2: just because he thought it would be funny. And it's
33:35
Speaker 2: kind of funny. It wasn't funny because you know, it
33:37
Speaker 2: caroused probably thousands of dollars worth of damage. But he
33:41
Speaker 2: also wasn't able to create the light your middle school
33:44
Speaker 2: toilet on fire challenge and encourage a bunch of other, uh,
33:48
Speaker 2: you know, twelve year olds to go and light their
33:50
Speaker 2: toilets on fire. And this is why social media just sucks.
33:55
Speaker 4: Whether it was a middle school kid warning him that
33:58
Speaker 4: we may not be insured for the hazards.
34:02
Speaker 2: Just got my calculator and my protector and they're like, oh,
34:05
Speaker 2: this isn't a good idea.
34:09
Speaker 1: School.
34:11
Speaker 2: She's a fair bit higher dude.
34:14
Speaker 4: But yeah, company taxes could go up as a result
34:16
Speaker 4: of youless actions.
34:18
Speaker 2: This is exactly the argument that I was trying to make.
34:20
Speaker 2: And believe it or not, he lit the toilet on
34:22
Speaker 2: fire anyway, So yeah, this is the problem with social
34:26
Speaker 2: media is that whether it's this, whether it's the tide
34:29
Speaker 2: pod challenge, there are a lot of dumb, dangerous things
34:32
Speaker 2: that middle schoolers do, but up until recently, they didn't
34:35
Speaker 2: have the ability to inform the entire world about them
34:38
Speaker 2: and encourage others to follow them in kind.
34:42
Speaker 3: So yeah, I mean social medias have flagged this stuff.
34:45
Speaker 3: It's as simple as that, and they don't. Yeah, well
34:47
Speaker 3: it's as simple as that.
34:48
Speaker 2: That costs money. That costs money, Mark, what do you
34:50
Speaker 2: have for us for a sacroulette?
34:52
Speaker 4: Elon Musk was speaking to the cutter. That's qat a
34:57
Speaker 4: R the country. I'm always confused how to pronounced, but
35:00
Speaker 4: I thought you're talking about there's any right, there's there's
35:03
Speaker 4: an economic forum in Cutter. Musk was there and he announced,
35:07
Speaker 4: probably wisely into his great credit, that he'll be stepping
35:10
Speaker 4: back from his more visible political role. I assume that
35:15
Speaker 4: means no formal role going forward with this or any
35:19
Speaker 4: other administration, as well as curtailing political contributions. He feels
35:23
Speaker 4: like he's done enough. He wants to focus on Tesla.
35:25
Speaker 4: He's committed for the next five years as CEO at least,
35:29
Speaker 4: and chaerholders like it. Stocks up five percent, so probably
35:32
Speaker 4: a good move.
35:33
Speaker 2: He's got some work to do. I mean, granted, I
35:35
Speaker 2: live here in Massachusetts, which is not exactly a conservative
35:41
Speaker 2: area of the country, but I would say that more
35:45
Speaker 2: often than not, when I see a Tesla on the road,
35:48
Speaker 2: there is some form of anti elon bumper sticker attached
35:51
Speaker 2: to it. Again, it's Massachusetts. I'm not surprised by any
35:55
Speaker 2: of this. But why that matters is because states like
35:58
Speaker 2: Massachusetts are rare. He was selling all of his Tesla's
36:02
Speaker 2: and so if that is more than just a Massachusetts trend,
36:05
Speaker 2: and you know they are not able to recoup that
36:08
Speaker 2: marginal buyer on the Tesla vehicle or create a new
36:11
Speaker 2: market for them. I'm open to that idea that conservatives
36:14
Speaker 2: are suddenly going to start buying Tesla's, but the proof's
36:18
Speaker 2: not out there, and the infrastructure is not even close
36:21
Speaker 2: to there, because you know, there's not a whole lot
36:23
Speaker 2: of Tesla superchargers in Iowa, for example. So we will
36:26
Speaker 2: we will see where this one goes. I think he's
36:28
Speaker 2: got his work cut out for him on the turnaround
36:31
Speaker 2: story when it comes to Tesla, but he's done it before,
36:33
Speaker 2: so I'm not going to say it.
36:34
Speaker 4: And he found how difficult it is to make meaningful
36:37
Speaker 4: changes to government spending him he didn't have the legislative
36:40
Speaker 4: power behind him to do it, obviously, that lies with Congress,
36:44
Speaker 4: and I.
36:45
Speaker 2: Think he spoke to that specifically.
36:46
Speaker 4: It's like, yeah, it's going to be frustrating for a
36:48
Speaker 4: guy like him who's used to being king of the
36:50
Speaker 4: joint and rightfully so, he more or less built the
36:53
Speaker 4: company up from nothing.
36:55
Speaker 2: Speaking of Tesla, you know, and autonomous car, he's generally
37:00
Speaker 2: there's a new study out about social sensitivity and how
37:03
Speaker 2: cars need to be trained on behaving more like humans,
37:07
Speaker 2: which or the drivers of those cars which are robots
37:11
Speaker 2: behaving more like humans, which is confusing to me because
37:14
Speaker 2: I thought that was the entire point of developing autonomous vehicles,
37:18
Speaker 2: was that we all sucked at driving, we crashed too much,
37:20
Speaker 2: and so we wanted robots to drive the cars instead.
37:24
Speaker 2: But this study says, no, we need to behave more
37:26
Speaker 2: like humans with these cars. And now I'm just left
37:29
Speaker 2: wondering what the point of all this is, because the promise,
37:32
Speaker 2: at least in terms of my opinion, was, Hey, autonomous
37:35
Speaker 2: driving is going to make driving for everyone safer because
37:38
Speaker 2: there's going to be better reaction time. A robot can't
37:41
Speaker 2: get distracted by its phone, and therefore we're all going
37:45
Speaker 2: to become better drivers. Insurance costs come down, and it'll
37:48
Speaker 2: be nice because you can go do something else with
37:50
Speaker 2: the cars driving. This study seems to point to that
37:53
Speaker 2: in the other direction, but maybe they're.
37:56
Speaker 4: They're giving them little middle fingers now.
38:00
Speaker 2: On the horn. The autonomous car is just honking at
38:02
Speaker 2: you as soon as it turns green. Markets remain in
38:07
Speaker 2: negative territory now off one hundred points or a quarter
38:10
Speaker 2: of percent, NASDAK off seventy one points thirty percent, and
38:13
Speaker 2: S and P similarly off a thirty percent. We'll be
38:15
Speaker 2: back at it tomorrow. Folks, have a great rest of
38:17
Speaker 2: your day. We'll talk to you then