Latest / Crosstabs / On Location - Reagan on the Move

Transcript

On Location - Reagan on the Move · Crosstabs

• 0:00
  SPEAKER_02: Recording on location, is that what we're doing?
• 0:06
  [music]
• 0:24
  SPEAKER_02: I'm at the, I think they call it the Salem Convention Center, Bryan.
• 0:28
  SPEAKER_02: I almost said Oregon Convention Center, but I think that's Portland.
• 0:31
  SPEAKER_02: So I'm at the Salem Convention Center.
• 0:32
  SPEAKER_02: It is a beautiful day outside.
• 0:35
  SPEAKER_02: It's a 15 minute walk from the Oregon State Capitol where you and I work,
• 0:39
  SPEAKER_02: where I was this morning before I came to the,
• 0:42
  SPEAKER_02: I think they call it the Oregon Summit, but it's the Oregon Infrastructure Summit.
• 0:46
  SPEAKER_02: And you've been to this event.
• 0:48
  SPEAKER_02: I think it was at Seaside or somewhere up on the coast.
• 0:50
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, Seaside.
• 0:51
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 0:53
  SPEAKER_01: Seaside last year.
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_01: That's good.
• 0:56
  SPEAKER_01: That's good event.
• 0:56
  SPEAKER_01: It's like a lot of wonky infrastructure discussion, right?
• 1:02
  SPEAKER_01: Roads, bridges, people like that.
• 1:03
  SPEAKER_01: Business Oregon, OBI, those sort of folks.
• 1:08
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, it's good stuff.
• 1:09
  SPEAKER_01: It's great.
• 1:11
  SPEAKER_02: Lots of local government too.
• 1:14
  SPEAKER_02: I learned here that the city of Independence...
• 1:17
  SPEAKER_02: Had to kill off their park system.
• 1:19
  SPEAKER_02: They cannot afford to maintain their parks.
• 1:23
  SPEAKER_02: And part of that is because they can't expand their tax base.
• 1:27
  SPEAKER_02: And that is because their wastewater treatment,
• 1:29
  SPEAKER_02: I think it is wastewater treatment, is at max capacity.
• 1:32
  SPEAKER_02: They can't add another house.
• 1:33
  SPEAKER_02: They can't add another business.
• 1:35
  SPEAKER_02: Nothing.
• 1:36
  SPEAKER_02: And so they are just frozen until they can get that dealt with.
• 1:40
  SPEAKER_02: And it's a 40.
• 1:43
  SPEAKER_02: Some reason they do not have 40 and 50 million dollars just lying around, turns out.
• 1:48
  SPEAKER_00: Do you believe that these cities are,
• 1:51
  SPEAKER_00: when they say max capacity,
• 1:53
  SPEAKER_00: is that just their
• 1:54
  SPEAKER_01: Excel spreadsheet that says they're at max capacity?
• 1:57
  SPEAKER_01: Or is there literally poop pulling over the, backing up into the toilets?
• 2:02
  SPEAKER_01: I really think it's more of a spreadsheet thing.
• 2:05
  SPEAKER_02: I believe it's based on their understanding of what that system was built to handle.
• 2:11
  SPEAKER_02: And maybe they've gone a little bit beyond that already.
• 2:14
  SPEAKER_02: And they are concerned about the expensive fixes that may occur if they continue to stretch.
• 2:21
  SPEAKER_02: But I would say for the most part, it's likely on on paper.
• 2:26
  SPEAKER_02: But you also don't have large reserves if you're most cities.
• 2:31
  SPEAKER_02: So you you're not going to have the funds to deal with
• 2:35
  SPEAKER_02: a serious emergency event more than a few times.
• 2:39
  SPEAKER_01: Well, part of the problem, too,
• 2:41
  SPEAKER_01: is when they originally put those wastewater treatment plants together,
• 2:44
  SPEAKER_01: you were supposed to when you plan for what you charge people every month.
• 2:47
  SPEAKER_01: You were supposed to put a replacement cost into that charge.
• 2:51
  SPEAKER_01: That means they're bad budgeting is what I think is a big, big part of it too.
• 2:56
  SPEAKER_02: I wouldn't, I wouldn't disagree that there's very bad local, local budgeting going on.
• 3:02
  SPEAKER_02: The other thing I learned is that when a lot of these systems got put in,
• 3:05
  SPEAKER_02: so a lot of the treatment of wastewater and the treatment Yeah.
• 3:23
  SPEAKER_02: Now, a lot of times when they help with the financing of new or replacement systems,
• 3:27
  SPEAKER_02: they're covering about 10% of the bill.
• 3:46
  SPEAKER_02: So way more of the cost is being shouldered at the local or potentially
• 3:52
  SPEAKER_02: the state level when you're doing specifically water and wastewater infrastructure.
• 3:57
  SPEAKER_02: But I wouldn't be surprised if that was true for roads and other kinds of infrastructure, power.
• 4:03
  SPEAKER_02: The federal subsidies are on the way down,
• 4:06
  SPEAKER_02: and I don't think we're going to see those rebound anytime soon.
• 4:09
  SPEAKER_02: So the question is, what can the state and the local governments do?
• 4:13
  SPEAKER_01: Well, and they should be because we're $35 trillion in debt as a country.
• 4:17
  SPEAKER_01: So I'm going to have to figure something else out.
• 4:20
  SPEAKER_01: And we need to send out the $5,000 dividend, Bryan.
• 4:23
  SPEAKER_01: Well, hey, Reagan, let's not crack on my $5,000.
• 4:27
  SPEAKER_01: It's $10,000.
• 4:28
  SPEAKER_01: You and I, we're married.
• 4:30
  SPEAKER_02: I'm just waiting for them to call it a kicker,
• 4:33
  SPEAKER_02: and then we're going to file a suit on behalf of Tim Canope and the state of Oregon
• 4:40
  SPEAKER_02: to make sure that the federal government pays royalties for the name.
• 4:45
  SPEAKER_01: Has the Justice Department or Rayfield sues Trump, has he sued yet on this $5,000?
• 4:53
  SPEAKER_01: Because that's got to be coming soon, right?
• 4:56
  SPEAKER_02: I would assume it's somewhere in draft form.
• 4:59
  SPEAKER_02: He's going to look at it.
• 5:00
  SPEAKER_02: He's going to see.
• 5:00
  SPEAKER_02: He's going to evaluate it.
• 5:02
  SPEAKER_02: I bet they sue.
• 5:03
  SPEAKER_01: If we actually do keep Congress, I bet they sue.
• 5:07
  SPEAKER_01: On the 5,000?
• 5:08
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 5:39
  SPEAKER_01: That is a pretty good quote.
• 5:41
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 5:41
  SPEAKER_02: So I think the sentiment is is accurate.
• 5:44
  SPEAKER_02: Certainly.
• 5:45
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, Democrats promise all kinds of of government programs.
• 5:49
  SPEAKER_02: And I would say we're just you know, this is a little bit more of a direct route.
• 5:53
  SPEAKER_02: That's why Republicans that's why I've always thought Republicans should be very
• 5:56
  SPEAKER_02: supportive of the kicker.
• 5:57
  SPEAKER_02: It keeps down how much the government has,
• 6:00
  SPEAKER_02: which means they don't build new programs and you get your money back.
• 6:03
  SPEAKER_02: So it's not a bribe.
• 6:05
  SPEAKER_02: That's what makes it different.
• 6:06
  SPEAKER_02: It's not somebody else's tax dollars.
• 6:08
  SPEAKER_02: It's your tax dollars.
• 6:09
  SPEAKER_02: And it's commensurate with how much you pay.
• 6:11
  SPEAKER_02: You don't get a kicker if you don't pay.
• 6:14
  SPEAKER_02: And you get a bigger kicker if you pay more.
• 6:17
  SPEAKER_01: That's why I love the kicker, man.
• 6:21
  SPEAKER_01: And it always works out well with election years for me.
• 6:24
  SPEAKER_01: So if I'm doing it.
• 6:25
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, exactly.
• 6:27
  SPEAKER_01: So if you make more in even years, the kicker tends to work out better for you.
• 6:32
  SPEAKER_02: The other thing I learned is that despite having an enormous amount of land,
• 6:35
  SPEAKER_02: Oregon's a very,
• 6:37
  SPEAKER_02: very big state in terms of land and very small in terms of population.
• 6:42
  SPEAKER_02: We don't have industrial land.
• 6:44
  SPEAKER_02: We don't have industrial sites.
• 6:47
  SPEAKER_02: I'm not even talking about development-ready sites, Bryan.
• 6:49
  SPEAKER_02: I'm literally just talking about land that is available for industrial use.
• 6:57
  SPEAKER_02: It sounds like,
• 6:58
  SPEAKER_02: for the most part,
• 6:59
  SPEAKER_02: that when surveys or requests are going out from local governments or
• 7:04
  SPEAKER_02: the state government to industry,
• 7:06
  SPEAKER_02: the average amount of land that is needed for industrials,
• 7:10
  SPEAKER_02: like 283 acres,
• 7:12
  SPEAKER_02: and the number of available sites that even get to 100 acres is just minuscule.
• 7:18
  SPEAKER_02: And it's even smaller if you require them to be development ready.
• 7:25
  SPEAKER_02: So we don't have a deficit of land, but on paper, we have a tremendous deficit of land.
• 7:32
  SPEAKER_02: And that's true for housing.
• 7:33
  SPEAKER_02: That's true for industrial.
• 7:35
  SPEAKER_02: We got to get that solved if we want our economy to move, which some people don't.
• 7:39
  SPEAKER_02: They don't want our economy to move.
• 7:41
  SPEAKER_01: Well, that's, I mean,
• 7:43
  SPEAKER_01: that's indicative of our land use system that doesn't allow for industrial lands
• 7:48
  SPEAKER_01: to grow outside of the rings of city,
• 7:50
  SPEAKER_01: which the more and more we get into industrial ground,
• 7:53
  SPEAKER_01: do you really want the chemical plant paper mill right next
• 7:56
  SPEAKER_01: to light industrial homes and schools?
• 7:59
  SPEAKER_01: I don't think so, but
• 8:00
  SPEAKER_01: in the wisdom of our land use system, they do.
• 8:04
  SPEAKER_02: In Hillsboro,
• 8:04
  SPEAKER_02: I heard that they tried to build a data center,
• 8:07
  SPEAKER_02: which, you know, a zero emissions data center right next to a school.
• 8:11
  SPEAKER_02: That's very detrimental to health.
• 8:13
  SPEAKER_02: So that's probably where you should put the industrial pulp mill or the,
• 8:18
  SPEAKER_02: you know, the Yeah, that's a great question.
• 8:34
  SPEAKER_02: And that infrastructure like roads and water and sewer and power can also be used
• 8:39
  SPEAKER_02: for housing and other smaller forms of industry.
• 8:42
  SPEAKER_02: And it spurs economies.
• 8:45
  SPEAKER_02: And data center, the discussion around data centers is very funny.
• 8:49
  SPEAKER_02: They're talking about infrastructure.
• 8:51
  SPEAKER_02: So I've seen data centers come up and everybody kind of knows that the perception
• 8:55
  SPEAKER_02: of them is negative.
• 8:57
  SPEAKER_02: One of the presenters even said,
• 8:58
  SPEAKER_02: you know, we're all opposed to data centers based on the political ads.
• 9:03
  SPEAKER_02: But what do they actually do in reality?
• 9:06
  SPEAKER_02: And they were trying to make it clear they're not there to promote data centers,
• 9:11
  SPEAKER_02: but they were sharing what has happened in places like that.
• 9:16
  SPEAKER_02: I don't think anyone from Crook or Prineville was presenting,
• 9:19
  SPEAKER_02: but they were talking about Central and Eastern Oregon as being places
• 9:22
  SPEAKER_02: in Hillsborough,
• 9:23
  SPEAKER_02: of course,
• 9:23
  SPEAKER_02: where data centers are prolific and are very good for the tax base there
• 9:29
  SPEAKER_02: to supply money into the counties and the cities to do the stuff they want to do,
• 9:34
  SPEAKER_02: like water and sewer and roads and power.
• 9:39
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I think that the uninformed...
• 9:42
  SPEAKER_01: The uninformed voter is pretty dramatic right now in the data center discussion
• 9:46
  SPEAKER_01: because I think the problem is they're convoluting data centers with AI,
• 9:50
  SPEAKER_01: with government data centers, with hyperscalers.
• 9:56
  SPEAKER_01: The reality is that every business is in the data center business.
• 10:02
  SPEAKER_01: Every business is using data centers for cloud storage,
• 10:05
  SPEAKER_01: for cloud compute, for all the things that are...
• 10:12
  SPEAKER_01: You know,
• 10:12
  SPEAKER_01: good data center capital,
• 10:14
  SPEAKER_01: but we have a bumper company here,
• 10:15
  SPEAKER_01: Buckstop Bumpers,
• 10:17
  SPEAKER_01: employ close to 100 people,
• 10:19
  SPEAKER_01: use a ton of power because welding machines use a lot of power, by the way.
• 10:23
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 10:25
  SPEAKER_01: But they use data centers because
• 10:29
  SPEAKER_00: that's where they get the designs from.
• 10:30
  SPEAKER_00: And so when you're plasma cutting around a bumper,
• 10:34
  SPEAKER_00: it turns out that
• 10:35
  SPEAKER_01: AI can do a little bit of a better precision cut than,
• 10:39
  SPEAKER_01: you know, a dude.
• 10:41
  SPEAKER_00: So, you know,
• 10:43
  SPEAKER_00: not like they use it all the time,
• 10:44
  SPEAKER_00: but it's for those really,
• 10:46
  SPEAKER_00: really hard cuts and angles that you need to be perfect on.
• 10:49
  SPEAKER_00: Like you, it just makes sense, right?
• 10:52
  SPEAKER_00: So it's not, it's making that, and we're not replacing that welding job.
• 10:56
  SPEAKER_00: We're making that welder better.
• 11:00
  SPEAKER_02: Well, I mean,
• 11:01
  SPEAKER_02: great news is that we try not to use data centers in state government at
• 11:05
  SPEAKER_02: the legislature.
• 11:06
  SPEAKER_02: That tends to go really poorly.
• 11:09
  SPEAKER_02: So, well, you know what?
• 11:12
  SPEAKER_02: One thing that's odd to me,
• 11:13
  SPEAKER_02: Bryan, have you noticed that every other state agency lets their data?
• 11:17
  SPEAKER_02: Iverson, bryangiverson, crosstabs, reaganknopp.
• 11:37
  SPEAKER_02: Whatever the reason is, I'm a little annoyed about the fairness.
• 11:40
  SPEAKER_02: I think it's a little unfair.
• 11:41
  SPEAKER_02: I might have to talk to my union about that.
• 11:43
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know.
• 11:43
  SPEAKER_01: You should.
• 11:44
  SPEAKER_01: We should talk.
• 11:45
  SPEAKER_01: Well, because I think SEIU doesn't want to lose the interpreters that we pay
• 11:48
  SPEAKER_01: for every time we have a hearing.
• 11:51
  SPEAKER_01: We've got to have these interpreters.
• 11:53
  SPEAKER_01: When you have closed caption,
• 11:55
  SPEAKER_01: you have AI,
• 11:56
  SPEAKER_01: you have all these things that can literally do everything that these SEIU,
• 12:01
  SPEAKER_01: I'm guessing they're SEIU employees,
• 12:03
  SPEAKER_01: that are interpreters that make, I bet they make a shit ton of money.
• 12:07
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know what they make.
• 12:08
  SPEAKER_01: I might have to FOIA that to find out how much those guys make.
• 12:13
  SPEAKER_01: And I don't know how many people.
• 12:14
  SPEAKER_01: I'll turn my closed caption on sometimes when I'm on mute in the office and stuff,
• 12:19
  SPEAKER_01: and I kind of still want to hear what's not here,
• 12:22
  SPEAKER_01: but kind of see what's going on in a committee.
• 12:25
  SPEAKER_01: But that person's getting paid,
• 12:27
  SPEAKER_01: and I can't speak a lick of – I can't do sign language at all,
• 12:32
  SPEAKER_01: but I can read, turns out.
• 12:34
  SPEAKER_01: So, you know, funny how that is.
• 12:37
  SPEAKER_01: Anyways, enough of that talk.
• 12:39
  SPEAKER_01: Ledge days.
• 12:40
  SPEAKER_01: People want to hear what our ledge days is.
• 12:42
  SPEAKER_01: What was your experience of ledge days?
• 12:44
  SPEAKER_01: A whole bunch of nothing.
• 12:45
  SPEAKER_01: There wasn't a lot of people there.
• 12:47
  SPEAKER_02: No, it wasn't bad.
• 12:47
  SPEAKER_02: I think a lot of people are still, they've got vacations.
• 12:51
  SPEAKER_02: It kind of feels like conference season.
• 12:54
  SPEAKER_02: There were people that were out of state at various conferences on kind of
• 12:58
  SPEAKER_02: the issue areas, trying to get themselves ready to go for next session.
• 13:01
  SPEAKER_02: I think that's fine, Bryan.
• 13:03
  SPEAKER_02: There was nothing that I was aware of that really happened in committee
• 13:07
  SPEAKER_02: that was like, couldn't wait.
• 13:09
  SPEAKER_02: Until, you know, really any time after.
• 13:13
  SPEAKER_02: But we chose the week of Labor Day to do those things.
• 13:16
  SPEAKER_02: So that's cool.
• 13:18
  SPEAKER_02: I'm very sorry to everybody whose Labor Day was ruined by just sitting in a vehicle
• 13:21
  SPEAKER_02: on their way to Salem to prep for legislative days.
• 13:27
  SPEAKER_02: They're pretty much, I mean, it can be helpful to get everybody in a room and check in.
• 13:32
  SPEAKER_02: I think the pace at which, though, we do them is...
• 13:36
  SPEAKER_02: It feels like we jam a week's work of work into almost two, two and a half days.
• 13:41
  SPEAKER_02: And that's a little crazy to me for interim.
• 13:44
  SPEAKER_02: We've got a whole session to jam years worth of work into.
• 13:49
  SPEAKER_02: The other thing was we got to use the request portal.
• 13:52
  SPEAKER_02: So we have new technology at the legislature.
• 13:55
  SPEAKER_02: And so there are some things about it I like.
• 14:00
  SPEAKER_02: There are some things about it that I don't find to be particularly functional.
• 14:04
  SPEAKER_02: But there were some reports that on the deadline day,
• 14:08
  SPEAKER_02: September 11th,
• 14:09
  SPEAKER_02: to get your pre-session draft requests in that it crashed maybe a couple
• 14:14
  SPEAKER_02: of times earlier.
• 14:15
  SPEAKER_02: So I'm sure they're working on that.
• 14:17
  SPEAKER_02: And then we may not be able to drop bills unless we get our boss to go click the button.
• 14:23
  SPEAKER_02: So that could be fun.
• 14:25
  SPEAKER_02: They're trying to work that out now,
• 14:26
  SPEAKER_02: but they need the presiding officers and LC and IT and ledge admin to all sign off.
• 14:31
  SPEAKER_02: So we'll see if that happens.
• 14:34
  SPEAKER_02: People are working on that.
• 14:35
  SPEAKER_02: I just don't know.
• 14:38
  SPEAKER_02: What was broke, Reagan, that we had to create this portal?
• 14:41
  SPEAKER_02: That's a good question.
• 14:42
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 14:44
  SPEAKER_02: It's not like the portal magically made my LC bill requests better.
• 14:50
  SPEAKER_02: I'm sure they're just as incomprehensible to LC as they were before in a Word doc or
• 14:55
  SPEAKER_02: in an email.
• 14:57
  SPEAKER_02: So, I mean,
• 14:58
  SPEAKER_02: I think if they're allowed to manage it with the database on the back end,
• 15:02
  SPEAKER_02: maybe that improves LC's quality of life as opposed to copy and pasting out of
• 15:07
  SPEAKER_02: a form or out of an email.
• 15:10
  SPEAKER_02: So, I mean, that could be the reason.
• 15:13
  SPEAKER_02: The thing that's going to be weird, though, is there's no bill back.
• 15:17
  SPEAKER_02: So if you've been in the legislative process,
• 15:19
  SPEAKER_02: as long as you've been there,
• 15:20
  SPEAKER_02: there's been a there's been a form that's called a bill back.
• 15:23
  SPEAKER_02: And that's how you get a bill introduced.
• 15:24
  SPEAKER_02: So you can't introduce a bill.
• 15:26
  SPEAKER_02: You can have the language, but you can't introduce it unless you got the bill back.
• 15:29
  SPEAKER_02: So the bill back is the thing.
• 15:31
  SPEAKER_02: And It has to be signed by a legislator that chief sponsors that says this is going
• 15:36
  SPEAKER_02: to be my bill.
• 15:37
  SPEAKER_02: And it kind of starts as their bill and then it folds into the process.
• 15:41
  SPEAKER_02: And they're typically the one that is contacted by the L pro or by the chair or
• 15:46
  SPEAKER_02: by anyone interested in that bill to say, hey, what's this bill about?
• 15:49
  SPEAKER_02: And we do like it.
• 15:50
  SPEAKER_02: We don't like it.
• 15:51
  SPEAKER_02: Are you ready to get it heard?
• 15:53
  SPEAKER_02: All that stuff.
• 15:55
  SPEAKER_02: No paper billbacks is what I understand.
• 15:58
  SPEAKER_02: So it's all going to be now in this portal.
• 16:01
  SPEAKER_02: So essentially now we have a social media platform for billbacks.
• 16:04
  SPEAKER_02: And that's going to be super, super duper interesting.
• 16:10
  SPEAKER_01: I think it's going to suck.
• 16:13
  SPEAKER_01: So, well, so we'll all get used to it.
• 16:17
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 16:17
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, like all things
• 16:18
  SPEAKER_01: would change.
• 16:18
  SPEAKER_01: You just eventually get used to it.
• 16:20
  SPEAKER_01: And so I don't I don't want to push back too hard against those guys.
• 16:23
  SPEAKER_01: I think there's probably I don't use a lot of build back stuff.
• 16:27
  SPEAKER_01: I don't really have like a bunch of people sign on to our bills.
• 16:30
  SPEAKER_01: Early on, because they can always just go in and sign on to it themselves, right?
• 16:35
  SPEAKER_02: You got to be in the same chamber or the bill's got to be in your possession.
• 16:38
  SPEAKER_02: So that's the only thing.
• 16:39
  SPEAKER_02: The only downside there is pre-session.
• 16:41
  SPEAKER_02: You can sign on to anything if you've got the bill back or now you'll be able
• 16:44
  SPEAKER_02: to request through the process.
• 16:45
  SPEAKER_02: Or I think you can send out requests.
• 16:50
  SPEAKER_02: So I'm going to make sure we can put in some really right-wing bills and
• 16:55
  SPEAKER_02: then request all of the Democratic Socialists to sign on and see if they click it
• 17:00
  SPEAKER_02: by accident.
• 17:00
  SPEAKER_02: Maybe that could be fun.
• 17:03
  SPEAKER_02: So we'll see.
• 17:04
  SPEAKER_02: It's going to be super interesting.
• 17:05
  SPEAKER_02: But the one process that's pretty normal that's going to get
• 17:08
  SPEAKER_02: a little harder is you'll have a lobbyist come in or a staffer or the member.
• 17:15
  SPEAKER_02: And they'll just come in and they'll explain their bill in two seconds.
• 17:17
  SPEAKER_02: And they'll say, OK, yeah, I'll sign on.
• 17:19
  SPEAKER_02: And you literally pick up a pen and you write your initials, right?
• 17:22
  SPEAKER_02: You're probably not chief sponsoring if you have that quick of a conversation.
• 17:24
  SPEAKER_02: You might.
• 17:25
  SPEAKER_02: But most of the time, it's a quick sign on your initials.
• 17:27
  SPEAKER_02: And now you're going to have to go to your computer.
• 17:30
  SPEAKER_02: You can't use a phone because we don't have state phones.
• 17:33
  SPEAKER_02: So you have to go to a state computer.
• 17:35
  SPEAKER_02: You have to log into the thing.
• 17:37
  SPEAKER_02: You have to find the right bill number or do the right request.
• 17:41
  SPEAKER_02: And then somebody has to approve it.
• 17:43
  SPEAKER_02: That's a similar process to how it works when you sign on Olus.
• 17:46
  SPEAKER_02: It's going to create a lot of friction, though, where there used to not be as much friction.
• 17:52
  SPEAKER_02: And sometimes that was helpful.
• 17:53
  SPEAKER_02: And then sometimes you signed on to stuff you didn't even realize.
• 17:56
  SPEAKER_02: And then it blows up and you go, yeah, I'm going to go to Olus and tick my name off that.
• 17:59
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, right.
• 18:01
  SPEAKER_01: I'm going to have to find where my state computer is.
• 18:04
  SPEAKER_01: I feel like it's in a drawer somewhere in the Capitol.
• 18:08
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 18:09
  SPEAKER_02: That's why the chiefs of staff, we're all just like, could you please let us do it?
• 18:12
  SPEAKER_02: Just don't let our bosses do this, please.
• 18:15
  SPEAKER_02: For the love of all that is holy.
• 18:17
  SPEAKER_02: There's a handful of tech literate people,
• 18:19
  SPEAKER_02: and I'm sure they're great and they can go and all that.
• 18:22
  SPEAKER_02: There's a lot of us that may not work for as tech literate folks,
• 18:26
  SPEAKER_02: and it's going to be a problem if I have to get them to sign in and figure
• 18:32
  SPEAKER_02: and do it.
• 18:32
  SPEAKER_00: Are you saying your boss isn't tech literate?
• 18:35
  SPEAKER_02: I would never put that on the record, but she has many times.
• 18:41
  SPEAKER_02: So, yeah, I think she'd prefer I do it is kind of what she's thinking.
• 18:46
  SPEAKER_02: She's going to tell me what she wants to sign on to,
• 18:50
  SPEAKER_02: but I'm going to be the one clicking the button.
• 18:52
  SPEAKER_01: I'm going to give you the authority to do it for Senator Anderson so you can just do mine too.
• 18:58
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 19:00
  SPEAKER_01: I don't even have one.
• 19:01
  SPEAKER_01: You can get all my email through my Mac and thank God I can do that.
• 19:05
  SPEAKER_02: So IT comes and delivers a new computer and it's like one per office per legislature.
• 19:11
  SPEAKER_02: So you might get one in like November or December or whatever.
• 19:15
  SPEAKER_02: After the elections, they could give you yours, but they probably won't before the elections.
• 19:20
  SPEAKER_02: They probably wait until they know who's coming in and then they drop off a computer
• 19:23
  SPEAKER_02: for every district.
• 19:25
  SPEAKER_02: Every district probably gets one new computer this session,
• 19:28
  SPEAKER_02: which is super helpful, honestly, super great.
• 19:31
  SPEAKER_02: So maybe you'll get one, but will you use it?
• 19:34
  SPEAKER_02: No.
• 19:34
  SPEAKER_02: And I would rather bring my MacBook as well.
• 19:36
  SPEAKER_02: I wish they made some of this stuff more friendly to the bring your own devices, but...
• 19:41
  SPEAKER_02: So legislative IT, not a big fan of bring your own anything, let alone Apple.
• 19:47
  SPEAKER_00: I would agree.
• 19:48
  SPEAKER_01: I think you and I both love Apple products, right?
• 19:52
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, it's just kind of, it's our world.
• 19:54
  SPEAKER_01: I just love the inner.
• 19:55
  SPEAKER_01: And I probably would be fine with Teams and Microsoft if I used them all the time.
• 20:00
  SPEAKER_01: I used to,
• 20:00
  SPEAKER_01: but I just,
• 20:02
  SPEAKER_01: now it's just,
• 20:02
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 20:03
  SPEAKER_01: my phone is really the biggest reason why I love to have Apple,
• 20:06
  SPEAKER_01: because, you know, you're always on your phone.
• 20:09
  SPEAKER_01: So whether because I drive a lot and we're traveling a lot.
• 20:11
  SPEAKER_01: So it's nice to have your phone.
• 20:13
  SPEAKER_01: And if everything is connected through your phone,
• 20:15
  SPEAKER_01: the reality is, is I can get anything I need if I have my phone.
• 20:21
  SPEAKER_02: And in most workplaces, that's true.
• 20:23
  SPEAKER_02: But I'm here at a conference with mostly government attendees and they're all having
• 20:27
  SPEAKER_02: to log in with their government issued laptop, whether it's city, county, state.
• 20:31
  SPEAKER_02: I see them everywhere and they can't.
• 20:34
  SPEAKER_02: And it seems like government IT has not adapted.
• 20:37
  SPEAKER_02: And it's not like these corporations don't have security requirements.
• 20:41
  SPEAKER_02: You know, they all have security requirements.
• 20:44
  SPEAKER_02: It's often government level security.
• 20:46
  SPEAKER_02: And it just seems like The folks at IT are the ones that don't really like the limits of Apple.
• 20:52
  SPEAKER_02: And they can kind of do whatever they want.
• 20:54
  SPEAKER_02: And they started on Windows.
• 20:55
  SPEAKER_02: And I get it.
• 20:56
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, that sounds just like every agency where it's like, please don't let us do anything new.
• 21:01
  SPEAKER_02: Also, don't make us do anything different.
• 21:03
  SPEAKER_02: Give us more money to do what we've already been doing poorly.
• 21:08
  SPEAKER_01: I would agree.
• 21:09
  SPEAKER_01: All right.
• 21:11
  SPEAKER_01: Well, just my quick takeaway is I'll talk about some politics.
• 21:15
  SPEAKER_01: We can shift gears.
• 21:17
  SPEAKER_01: The only two committees that I thought were even remotely interesting were the one
• 21:22
  SPEAKER_01: on data centers that Gamba held,
• 21:25
  SPEAKER_01: which ultimately I think turned out to be a huge nothing burger for them,
• 21:31
  SPEAKER_01: for the Democrats who were looking to blow the lid off of stuff and really Everybody
• 21:36
  SPEAKER_01: that showed up there kind of basically said what things are,
• 21:40
  SPEAKER_01: gave the facts, and then there was really no like fireworks.
• 21:44
  SPEAKER_01: Because I think the reality is,
• 21:45
  SPEAKER_01: is when you learn the details and the facts of data centers,
• 21:49
  SPEAKER_01: that you come to find out that they're good for local communities.
• 21:52
  SPEAKER_01: The state doesn't glean a ton of taxes off of them.
• 21:56
  SPEAKER_01: And that kind of drives them crazy.
• 21:58
  SPEAKER_01: And there's really not a lot of harmful waste that is all just made up bullshit.
• 22:03
  SPEAKER_01: That's kind of out there in the ether.
• 22:05
  SPEAKER_01: So the reality is as we get closer, now you can have, and that's just data centers.
• 22:09
  SPEAKER_01: I'm not talking about AI technology.
• 22:11
  SPEAKER_01: That could be a whole different debate, right?
• 22:13
  SPEAKER_01: And I think we can have that debate.
• 22:16
  SPEAKER_01: And that's probably a fair debate because I think AI is like AI making the welder
• 22:22
  SPEAKER_01: that I just talked about make its cuts cleaner and safer and sharper and all
• 22:26
  SPEAKER_01: that sort of stuff, more efficient.
• 22:28
  SPEAKER_01: That is AI.
• 22:30
  SPEAKER_01: And then you have robots that kill humans.
• 22:32
  SPEAKER_01: That's AI too.
• 22:33
  SPEAKER_01: So I think there is a difference between the two.
• 22:36
  SPEAKER_01: And I think you can't use one against the other.
• 22:39
  SPEAKER_01: And that's kind of what they're doing.
• 22:40
  SPEAKER_01: I think a little bit is pitting one against the other.
• 22:43
  SPEAKER_02: You know,
• 22:43
  SPEAKER_02: I was trying to start an AI company and,
• 22:47
  SPEAKER_02: you know, you have the cloud and I wanted to store everything kind of in the sky.
• 22:52
  SPEAKER_02: And then the AI was supposed to kind of do everything.
• 22:54
  SPEAKER_02: It was so supposed to be a net.
• 22:57
  SPEAKER_02: And so I was calling it Skynet and nobody is investing in my AI company
• 23:00
  SPEAKER_02: and I cannot figure out why.
• 23:03
  SPEAKER_02: And then everyone's like, oh, AI is going to kill everybody.
• 23:05
  SPEAKER_02: And they're talking about movies called Terminator.
• 23:07
  SPEAKER_02: And so I go and watch those and I go, oh, I picked the wrong name for an AI company.
• 23:12
  SPEAKER_02: So we're going to have to rebrand.
• 23:14
  SPEAKER_02: I'm working on that now.
• 23:15
  SPEAKER_02: But yes, I see why that wasn't working now.
• 23:19
  SPEAKER_01: Skynet.com.
• 23:21
  SPEAKER_02: Is that true?
• 23:23
  SPEAKER_02: Don't do it.
• 23:25
  SPEAKER_01: Somebody called Teleset bought Skynet.com.
• 23:28
  SPEAKER_01: That was somebody I bet they really thought.
• 23:30
  SPEAKER_01: And they do a...
• 23:31
  SPEAKER_01: They do connectivity solutions.
• 23:33
  SPEAKER_01: That's great.
• 23:34
  SPEAKER_02: If somebody bought a Skynet domain and then just pointed it at ChatGPT or Claude,
• 23:39
  SPEAKER_02: just do a simple redirect.
• 23:41
  SPEAKER_02: Oh, man.
• 23:42
  SPEAKER_02: That would create so much freak out.
• 23:45
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, I think.
• 23:47
  SPEAKER_01: AIKillsHumans.com.
• 23:50
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, I mean,
• 23:50
  SPEAKER_02: at the end of the day,
• 23:51
  SPEAKER_02: I think you have to,
• 23:53
  SPEAKER_02: as we understand, just don't put the AI in the robots and we should be fine.
• 23:58
  SPEAKER_02: But I guess we'll see.
• 24:01
  SPEAKER_02: I'm not as worried about that.
• 24:02
  SPEAKER_02: Maybe I should be.
• 24:03
  SPEAKER_02: But at this point, I'm not.
• 24:05
  SPEAKER_01: Well, and the other one that I thought was remotely interesting was
• 24:10
  SPEAKER_01: the Transportation Committee.
• 24:14
  SPEAKER_01: And all they talked about was other ways that they could tax to come up with money.
• 24:20
  SPEAKER_01: It was literally like, you know, maybe we should tax microwaves.
• 24:24
  SPEAKER_01: Maybe we should tax, you know, it was like every tax you could think.
• 24:28
  SPEAKER_01: They literally just threw the kitchen sink at the tax equation and just said,
• 24:32
  SPEAKER_01: maybe this, maybe that.
• 24:33
  SPEAKER_01: Like these things had nothing to do with anything.
• 24:37
  SPEAKER_02: So as part of the infrastructure summit, the governor's transportation advisor presented.
• 24:44
  SPEAKER_02: And she wanted to make it clear that the room of people doing all the calculations
• 24:49
  SPEAKER_02: about the taxes is not the same room where they're going to try to secretly conspire
• 24:54
  SPEAKER_02: to raise your taxes.
• 24:55
  SPEAKER_02: It's not that room.
• 24:56
  SPEAKER_02: I have it.
• 24:58
  SPEAKER_02: I think that room is usually at SEIU somewhere.
• 25:08
  SPEAKER_02: It's not in the Capitol usually.
• 25:11
  SPEAKER_02: But she kind of presented and she basically said the governor's...
• 25:17
  SPEAKER_02: I don't know, Roads Council, whatever it's called, is going to present a plan.
• 25:22
  SPEAKER_02: And the plan is going to have various options inside of it.
• 25:25
  SPEAKER_02: It's kind of a door one, door two, door three approach.
• 25:28
  SPEAKER_02: And then the legislature can decide which door they want to walk through and
• 25:32
  SPEAKER_02: if they would like to get their heads cut off or if they would like to lose arms
• 25:36
  SPEAKER_02: or legs, basically.
• 25:37
  SPEAKER_02: Those are the choices.
• 25:39
  SPEAKER_02: And one thing, though,
• 25:40
  SPEAKER_02: that I think about the transportation conversation that I think the Republicans find
• 25:44
  SPEAKER_02: the most challenging is Is that every Democrat that talks about this stuff goes,
• 25:49
  SPEAKER_02: wow, there's all these situations and transportation's really complex.
• 25:53
  SPEAKER_02: You have kids that walk and bike to school.
• 25:56
  SPEAKER_02: False.
• 25:56
  SPEAKER_02: They take the bus or they get dropped off by their parents.
• 26:00
  SPEAKER_02: Sure, there are probably kids that walk.
• 26:02
  SPEAKER_02: That is a minuscule number compared to the numbers that are in buses and cars.
• 26:07
  SPEAKER_02: And then they said, oh, seniors, they take transit to their appointments.
• 26:10
  SPEAKER_02: And I was like, absolutely they do not.
• 26:14
  SPEAKER_02: They may use the senior rideshare service or they get a family member.
• 26:17
  SPEAKER_02: Or they drive themselves.
• 26:18
  SPEAKER_02: And they are designing policy.
• 26:22
  SPEAKER_02: It's the same for when they talked about green energy.
• 26:24
  SPEAKER_02: They are designing policy around the ideal way that they imagine they want people
• 26:31
  SPEAKER_02: to live instead of reality.
• 26:33
  SPEAKER_02: And I think that's the huge disconnect between Democrats
• 26:36
  SPEAKER_02: and Republicans is Republicans like 95% of people are just using roads with cars and
• 26:42
  SPEAKER_02: then some buses on top of that.
• 26:44
  SPEAKER_02: Transit doesn't even – I was talking to somebody – They were talking
• 26:47
  SPEAKER_02: about how Amtrak is probably going to stop doing passenger commutes in Oregon
• 26:53
  SPEAKER_02: by 2032 based on current projections.
• 26:57
  SPEAKER_02: So I live close enough to the train station where I could drive at
• 27:00
  SPEAKER_02: the Albany train station, park, ride it up to Salem and ride it back.
• 27:04
  SPEAKER_02: They run...
• 27:05
  SPEAKER_02: I think a single Amtrak,
• 27:07
  SPEAKER_02: it leaves too late in the morning for me to make it for 8 a.m. committees.
• 27:12
  SPEAKER_02: And it leaves at like 5.0 something,
• 27:14
  SPEAKER_02: which means I can't stay long enough to get my work done.
• 27:16
  SPEAKER_02: And so at the end of the day, I'm going to have to drive.
• 27:19
  SPEAKER_02: And that would be a super duper.
• 27:20
  SPEAKER_02: Super easy train ride if they actually offered it at multiple times.
• 27:28
  SPEAKER_02: And I don't know.
• 27:28
  SPEAKER_02: Again, I don't know all the background on that.
• 27:30
  SPEAKER_02: It's not functional for me.
• 27:32
  SPEAKER_02: So I'm going to have to drive.
• 27:33
  SPEAKER_02: And that's 99, again, 99, 95% of people.
• 27:38
  SPEAKER_01: That was part of where when I lived in San Diego and I worked for
• 27:41
  SPEAKER_01: the gas company down there, marketing manager, Semper Energy.
• 27:45
  SPEAKER_01: And I lived in Solana Beach and there was the train that went up,
• 27:50
  SPEAKER_01: you know, up and down the coast.
• 27:51
  SPEAKER_01: And then SoCal Gas was the gas towers downtown LA.
• 27:55
  SPEAKER_01: And there was one train that picked me up at 830.
• 28:00
  SPEAKER_01: And then there was another train that left LA that I could grab at 430.
• 28:04
  SPEAKER_01: And it just like occasionally I could do that.
• 28:07
  SPEAKER_01: My boss was cool.
• 28:08
  SPEAKER_01: But like if I had a meeting or if we had stuff going, you know, it just didn't work.
• 28:12
  SPEAKER_01: So I probably three at least three days a week I had to drive because the idea
• 28:18
  SPEAKER_01: of just public transportation just didn't work.
• 28:20
  SPEAKER_01: And, you know, and that was, of course, 2002 or whenever I was living down there.
• 28:25
  SPEAKER_01: So that was a long time ago.
• 28:27
  SPEAKER_01: The technology now would probably make it a little easier to get on the train.
• 28:31
  SPEAKER_01: But you're right.
• 28:32
  SPEAKER_01: It's just not functional.
• 28:33
  SPEAKER_01: And then,
• 28:34
  SPEAKER_01: of course,
• 28:34
  SPEAKER_01: you had to walk like,
• 28:35
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 28:35
  SPEAKER_01: eight, nine, ten blocks or whatever from wherever I got off the subway or the train.
• 28:40
  SPEAKER_01: And that was before, of course, it was full of homeless people and drugs.
• 28:43
  SPEAKER_01: But that's a different story.
• 28:45
  SPEAKER_01: You know,
• 28:46
  SPEAKER_01: the worst part about all these sort of things that the governor does,
• 28:50
  SPEAKER_01: and this is probably my biggest pet peeve of the governor.
• 28:52
  SPEAKER_01: And then I want to kind of transition into that race.
• 28:55
  SPEAKER_01: Is no matter what the problem,
• 28:58
  SPEAKER_01: she appoints a committee,
• 28:59
  SPEAKER_01: a council,
• 29:00
  SPEAKER_01: you name it,
• 29:01
  SPEAKER_01: Chief Prosperity Council,
• 29:02
  SPEAKER_01: the data center council,
• 29:05
  SPEAKER_01: The Transportation Committee,
• 29:07
  SPEAKER_01: she does this and she's been doing it since she's been in political office.
• 29:12
  SPEAKER_01: She creates a council and then she has the implausible deniability.
• 29:16
  SPEAKER_01: She'll use terms like, well,
• 29:18
  SPEAKER_01: I put the experts in the room and they're going to come up with this suite
• 29:20
  SPEAKER_01: of solutions.
• 29:21
  SPEAKER_01: And then we'll take a look at the things that are palatable based on those lists
• 29:25
  SPEAKER_01: of solutions where she'll say,
• 29:27
  SPEAKER_01: yeah, door, like you just said, door one, two or three.
• 29:30
  SPEAKER_01: And the legislature gets to decide which ones they
• 29:32
  SPEAKER_00: want to do.
• 29:34
  SPEAKER_00: Rates this group of people,
• 29:37
  SPEAKER_00: no matter what,
• 29:38
  SPEAKER_00: no matter what the problem, they come up with this suite of potential solutions.
• 29:44
  SPEAKER_00: And then she kind of doesn't really put her foot down on all of them.
• 29:49
  SPEAKER_00: And then she kind of doesn't necessarily own them.
• 29:52
  SPEAKER_00: And I think that's part of the biggest reason why her negatives are so bad,
• 29:57
  SPEAKER_00: is I don't think she owns her decisions.
• 30:02
  SPEAKER_00: I think she always has...
• 30:04
  SPEAKER_00: You know,
• 30:05
  SPEAKER_00: just another group or another,
• 30:07
  SPEAKER_00: you know, group of people to kind of throw the blame out there.
• 30:11
  SPEAKER_00: Transportation, she'll say, well, I had to swoop in and try to help the legislature didn't act.
• 30:17
  SPEAKER_00: And then now she's going to say, well, I gave you three solutions, you didn't pick one.
• 30:21
  SPEAKER_00: And so I just think like,
• 30:22
  SPEAKER_00: that's probably my biggest pet peeve with the governor is like,
• 30:25
  SPEAKER_00: I want a governor who is convicted.
• 30:28
  SPEAKER_00: Who knows the right direction to go with stuff and just uses the bully pulpit
• 30:32
  SPEAKER_00: to push that through.
• 30:34
  SPEAKER_00: And I wish she would do more of that because I think her personality
• 30:37
  SPEAKER_00: and what she stands for would come through that.
• 30:41
  SPEAKER_00: And she could probably get the naysayers to back off a little bit
• 30:44
  SPEAKER_00: if she just told them all to back the F off.
• 30:46
  SPEAKER_00: This is what we're doing because it's in the right direction of org.
• 30:50
  SPEAKER_00: And I think that's why her negatives are so low or so high, I should say.
• 30:55
  SPEAKER_01: I was talking to somebody.
• 31:00
  SPEAKER_01: The other day,
• 31:01
  SPEAKER_01: and they'll remain nameless,
• 31:03
  SPEAKER_01: but they were
• 31:05
  SPEAKER_00: asked, like, why is the governor talking about data centers?
• 31:08
  SPEAKER_00: And they said it's because it's the only number that has a higher negative than hers.
• 31:14
  SPEAKER_00: So I think there's just,
• 31:16
  SPEAKER_00: there's a real problem with those negativity, and it comes out in these polls.
• 31:21
  SPEAKER_00: That we're seeing,
• 31:22
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 31:22
  SPEAKER_00: the most recent one with Drazen and Kotech where Drazen's at 45% and Kotech at 43%.
• 31:28
  SPEAKER_00: It's technically a DHM did it.
• 31:30
  SPEAKER_00: We like DHM.
• 31:31
  SPEAKER_00: We, you know, we're, we're big fans of, of those guys.
• 31:36
  SPEAKER_00: We think they do a pretty guy still think they're a little too Valley focused.
• 31:40
  SPEAKER_01: But they focus on,
• 31:41
  SPEAKER_01: you know, put like actual register people, people that are most likely to vote.
• 31:47
  SPEAKER_01: And then that Brett Smith guy
• 31:50
  SPEAKER_00: got 4%.
• 31:51
  SPEAKER_00: So basically 92% have pretty much made up their mind.
• 31:58
  SPEAKER_01: So we're going to spend all this money to fight for 8% that remained uncertain.
• 32:03
  SPEAKER_01: And I don't even think those 8% are pretty much uncertain at this point.
• 32:08
  SPEAKER_01: I think they pretty much made up their mind.
• 32:09
  SPEAKER_01: They just didn't want to tell the pollster what their decision was.
• 32:12
  SPEAKER_01: So I really believe that's, I think this race is kind of done at this point.
• 32:18
  SPEAKER_01: I think those 8% are looking for a reason to support Kotech, and she's not giving it to them.
• 32:24
  SPEAKER_01: And because most all your Republicans are pretty much made up their mind.
• 32:27
  SPEAKER_01: All your Democrats have made up their mind.
• 32:29
  SPEAKER_01: You know, the ones that are going to cross over or whatever.
• 32:32
  SPEAKER_01: I don't think any Republicans are crossing over.
• 32:33
  SPEAKER_01: I'm sure she's lost a few Democrats.
• 32:35
  SPEAKER_01: Maybe they're going to Brett Smith.
• 32:37
  SPEAKER_01: But What this tells me, though, is this race is going to be super close.
• 32:41
  SPEAKER_00: But what I'm starting to see that I don't like if you're Drazen is that
• 32:46
  SPEAKER_00: that 48%
• 32:47
  SPEAKER_01: she had originally is starting to soften.
• 32:51
  SPEAKER_01: And and,
• 32:52
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 32:52
  SPEAKER_01: the window between the two of them now,
• 32:54
  SPEAKER_01: if you're Drazen,
• 32:56
  SPEAKER_01: what you need to do is make sure that if Kotex not palatable,
• 32:59
  SPEAKER_01: that it goes to Brett Smith.
• 33:02
  SPEAKER_00: That looks like the right guy for you is Brett Smith making a protest vote against Kotex.
• 33:06
  SPEAKER_00: So.
• 33:07
  SPEAKER_00: We'll see kind of what happens,
• 33:08
  SPEAKER_00: but the reality is this race is tight,
• 33:12
  SPEAKER_00: which is very odd because the other polling that I'm seeing
• 33:14
  SPEAKER_01: around the state
• 33:15
  SPEAKER_01: on legislative races is Republicans are kind of getting walloped.
• 33:21
  SPEAKER_01: And congressional races and legislative races, we're not looking good right now.
• 33:25
  SPEAKER_01: But for some reason,
• 33:26
  SPEAKER_01: Drazen's kind of breaking through,
• 33:28
  SPEAKER_01: and that has to be the negatives on Kotex's side of it.
• 33:31
  SPEAKER_01: Is the only thing that I'm reading into that because most people have no idea
• 33:34
  SPEAKER_01: who their state senator is or their state rep.
• 33:37
  SPEAKER_01: So the reality is Kotex carrying that banner of all the negativity of whatever Democrats have.
• 33:43
  SPEAKER_01: And Drazen's benefiting from that negativity is the two things I see.
• 33:46
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know what you're seeing, but that's kind of what I'm seeing at this point.
• 33:50
  SPEAKER_02: Well, one,
• 33:50
  SPEAKER_02: I think you have to discount so that Pacific Green Party,
• 33:54
  SPEAKER_02: Brett Smith, he's getting 4% in the polling.
• 33:57
  SPEAKER_02: That almost always collapses by at least half by the time voting actually shows up
• 34:02
  SPEAKER_02: because Betsy Johnson four years ago was getting 20% to 15%.
• 34:07
  SPEAKER_02: She ends up with 9%.
• 34:08
  SPEAKER_02: So you have to factor that in.
• 34:10
  SPEAKER_02: And I think the rest of it, you're right.
• 34:12
  SPEAKER_02: It is true.
• 34:15
  SPEAKER_02: So it's
• 34:22
  SPEAKER_02: hard to know exactly if that vote is equally distributed
• 34:26
  SPEAKER_02: between right leaning versus left leaning,
• 34:29
  SPEAKER_02: regardless of which party they're a part of.
• 34:32
  SPEAKER_02: And the biggest problem right now is Is that Republicans are in a lot
• 34:37
  SPEAKER_02: of competitive governor elections.
• 34:39
  SPEAKER_02: And if they can't put those away,
• 34:41
  SPEAKER_02: they can't get the national money in to Drazen and she's going to get badly outspent
• 34:46
  SPEAKER_02: in the final days.
• 34:47
  SPEAKER_02: And I think the executive order that Trump did and that the Supreme Court overruled
• 34:52
  SPEAKER_02: on voting is a big part of that because vote by mail is still a hot topic.
• 34:59
  SPEAKER_02: And so I think Drazen needs to probably let folks know,
• 35:03
  SPEAKER_02: if she's not opposed to vote by mail,
• 35:06
  SPEAKER_02: that she isn't going to allow Trump to have influence in the elections.
• 35:10
  SPEAKER_02: That could help her pick up a piece of that vote that wants a reason not to vote
• 35:15
  SPEAKER_02: for Kotech, but is still scared of Trump.
• 35:20
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, that's why they're doing the statewide,
• 35:22
  SPEAKER_01: the Democratic Party is doing the statewide,
• 35:24
  SPEAKER_01: you know, no Trump in Oregon tour, right?
• 35:26
  SPEAKER_01: So they think that's their best angle is to drive,
• 35:30
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 35:31
  SPEAKER_01: the negatives of Drazen,
• 35:32
  SPEAKER_01: which I don't think is going to work because Drazen's really sitting out about
• 35:36
  SPEAKER_01: that Trump number right now.
• 35:38
  SPEAKER_01: If you look at the margin of error really right there,
• 35:40
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, Trump got nearly 44% of the vote in 2024.
• 35:45
  SPEAKER_01: You know, every governor, Republican governor kind of has gotten somewhere around that number.
• 35:50
  SPEAKER_01: So I don't know if you can really drive the negatives up on Drazen.
• 35:53
  SPEAKER_01: I think maybe what they're trying to drive is the negatives
• 35:57
  SPEAKER_01: of those undecided voters to be too afraid of Trump,
• 36:01
  SPEAKER_01: like you just said,
• 36:02
  SPEAKER_01: and then get them to collapse over to Tina at the end of this thing.
• 36:06
  SPEAKER_01: And that's clearly their strategy from the Kotech thing.
• 36:10
  SPEAKER_01: But I think she's missing a little bit.
• 36:12
  SPEAKER_01: I think Kotech's got to get out there and Create a positive agenda for the future
• 36:17
  SPEAKER_01: if she wants to win.
• 36:18
  SPEAKER_01: I think Drazen's starting to do that.
• 36:20
  SPEAKER_01: I really start to see that with some of her stuff that she's doing.
• 36:23
  SPEAKER_01: She's trying to put out, here's my ideas, here's my future.
• 36:26
  SPEAKER_01: Yes, I'm going to fight you on data centers.
• 36:28
  SPEAKER_01: I'm going to fight, you know, they're kind of, They're kind of fighting in the middle on that.
• 36:31
  SPEAKER_01: It sounds like they're both in the same space,
• 36:33
  SPEAKER_01: but somehow they're bashing each other for both doing something on data centers
• 36:39
  SPEAKER_01: and being okay with it.
• 36:40
  SPEAKER_01: It's kind of a funny commercial battle between the two of them
• 36:43
  SPEAKER_01: because they're literally kind of saying the same thing.
• 36:47
  SPEAKER_01: So I think that'll subside a little bit because nobody seems to be winning anything.
• 36:51
  SPEAKER_01: The argument, I wouldn't say.
• 36:53
  SPEAKER_01: I don't think either one of them is winning that argument.
• 36:54
  SPEAKER_01: They both kind of called for a moratorium, which I hate.
• 36:58
  SPEAKER_01: I think the moratorium is dumb.
• 37:00
  SPEAKER_01: I think we just go into the legislature and figure it out.
• 37:02
  SPEAKER_01: I think it's not that hard to do.
• 37:04
  SPEAKER_01: I think this moratorium stuff is for people that...
• 37:07
  SPEAKER_01: Can't pass a gas tax because they can't do big things.
• 37:10
  SPEAKER_01: It's easy to say moratorium because you can just kick the can because you can't go
• 37:14
  SPEAKER_01: in there and do big things.
• 37:16
  SPEAKER_01: I think if you can't figure out the road situation and ODOT situation in Oregon,
• 37:20
  SPEAKER_01: then you shouldn't be in the room because you can't do big things.
• 37:24
  SPEAKER_01: And Oregonians should demand big things from our legislature and our governor.
• 37:29
  SPEAKER_01: And I think that's really what I believe is kind of missing is big things.
• 37:32
  SPEAKER_01: What's the big picture?
• 37:33
  SPEAKER_01: What's the big things?
• 37:35
  SPEAKER_01: What are we going to tackle today?
• 37:36
  SPEAKER_01: Because people are looking for that right now, I think.
• 37:38
  SPEAKER_01: And I don't think either of the governor candidates are given.
• 37:42
  SPEAKER_01: I think Jason's trying a little bit more than Tina is,
• 37:44
  SPEAKER_01: but I'm not seeing, you know, what's, I don't even know what Tina's agenda is.
• 37:48
  SPEAKER_01: Her agenda is not Trump.
• 37:51
  SPEAKER_01: Every time you say anything, it's just Trump, Trump, Trump.
• 37:55
  SPEAKER_01: You know, every answer to everything is Trump.
• 37:57
  SPEAKER_01: Rayfield, Trump, right?
• 37:58
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, everything is Trump.
• 38:00
  SPEAKER_00: Tobias Reid, Trump.
• 38:01
  SPEAKER_00: It's all Trump.
• 38:05
  SPEAKER_01: Which might be the winning strategy.
• 38:06
  SPEAKER_01: Don't get me wrong, Reagan.
• 38:10
  SPEAKER_02: He's not the most popular guy in Oregon,
• 38:11
  SPEAKER_02: but he still has higher favorables than Kotech generally,
• 38:15
  SPEAKER_02: which I think may bother the Democratic side a little bit.
• 38:21
  SPEAKER_02: At the end of the day,
• 38:21
  SPEAKER_02: I think you're talking about the governor delegating everything,
• 38:25
  SPEAKER_02: and the governor can't do everything she does have to delegate.
• 38:29
  SPEAKER_02: But I think she probably should be able to delegate to agency heads to be able
• 38:35
  SPEAKER_02: to handle the stuff and allow them to convene groups of people to get feedback,
• 38:40
  SPEAKER_02: whether public meetings or just one-on-one stuff.
• 38:43
  SPEAKER_02: And then she kind of needs to be the hero of an issue.
• 38:46
  SPEAKER_02: But I do think she kind of wrapped her arms around housing,
• 38:51
  SPEAKER_02: and I don't think that's a bad issue.
• 38:52
  SPEAKER_02: I think it's an important issue that needs to be solved.
• 38:55
  SPEAKER_02: But unfortunately – It didn't get better in terms of the amount of units being built
• 39:03
  SPEAKER_02: in her four years.
• 39:03
  SPEAKER_02: And so she may feel a little burned by that.
• 39:06
  SPEAKER_02: And I don't blame her.
• 39:08
  SPEAKER_01: Yep, I would agree.
• 39:09
  SPEAKER_01: I think it's going to be well, that's going to be the talk of the town going into November 3rd.
• 39:15
  SPEAKER_00: I think we'll we'll dive into it.
• 39:17
  SPEAKER_00: Reagan next week, we'll get we'll start.
• 39:20
  SPEAKER_00: Start our political podcasts and episodes
• 39:22
  SPEAKER_01: where we'll start breaking down all these House and Senate and governor races,
• 39:27
  SPEAKER_01: you know, through the month of October.
• 39:28
  SPEAKER_01: I think it's going to be a pretty interesting month of October.
• 39:31
  SPEAKER_01: We'll see if you and I got $5,000 checks coming from President Trump,
• 39:36
  SPEAKER_01: by the way, which will cost something like $1.2.
• 39:39
  SPEAKER_01: Four trillion dollars or something like that.
• 39:41
  SPEAKER_01: It's some insane amount of money.
• 39:44
  SPEAKER_02: It's one of the reasons the kicker is a tax credit.
• 39:46
  SPEAKER_02: It is kind of expensive to send out checks to everybody.
• 39:50
  SPEAKER_02: I think that Speaker Johnson and Leader Thune will probably also try to convince
• 39:54
  SPEAKER_02: the president it should go out via people's tax rebates for that very reason.
• 40:01
  SPEAKER_01: Yep.
• 40:01
  SPEAKER_01: No.
• 40:02
  SPEAKER_01: And then I kind of want to talk about the mail-in voting thing at some point.
• 40:05
  SPEAKER_01: It's I think that there's been a couple of snafus coming out of President Trump
• 40:10
  SPEAKER_01: that I that as a Republican and as a huge,
• 40:12
  SPEAKER_01: you know, I've been a been a Trump supporter for a long, long time.
• 40:16
  SPEAKER_01: And and and I just I don't I don't discount the president for trying to make things happen.
• 40:22
  SPEAKER_01: But he's I think his direction is just a little off right now.
• 40:27
  SPEAKER_01: And I think he's listening to it happened to him in 2019 as well.
• 40:32
  SPEAKER_01: Going into the 2020 elections where, hey,
• 40:35
  SPEAKER_01: I think he was getting some bad advice and some listening to some of
• 40:38
  SPEAKER_01: the wrong people.
• 40:39
  SPEAKER_01: And then the rudder kind of got shifted and,
• 40:42
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 40:42
  SPEAKER_01: COVID kind of threw a lot of things off and he kind of went into
• 40:45
  SPEAKER_01: the wrong direction there with how to approach all of that.
• 40:48
  SPEAKER_01: And I feel like we're doing the same thing going into the midterms here.
• 40:51
  SPEAKER_01: And I just, but that's just, you know, my own opinion on that.
• 40:56
  SPEAKER_01: Nothing else but opinion on that, which is probably wrong.
• 41:00
  SPEAKER_02: My thought on mail-in voting, Bryan, is simply this.
• 41:03
  SPEAKER_02: At least in Oregon...
• 41:06
  SPEAKER_02: The folks that I talk to that deal with elections or are close to elections tell me
• 41:10
  SPEAKER_02: that without mail-in balloting that very first election,
• 41:15
  SPEAKER_02: Republican turnout from rural areas will get absolutely crushed without the ability
• 41:21
  SPEAKER_02: to mail-in ballots because a lot of those folks do not live close to a drop box.
• 41:26
  SPEAKER_02: And they rely on being able to drop it in the mail.
• 41:29
  SPEAKER_02: And I get it.
• 41:31
  SPEAKER_02: I get the concerns about fraud,
• 41:34
  SPEAKER_02: and we need to make sure that we've done everything we can to do to prevent that.
• 41:39
  SPEAKER_02: But at the end of the day,
• 41:40
  SPEAKER_02: I think that first election,
• 41:43
  SPEAKER_02: let's say Republicans, some Republicans get their way and we do in-person voting.
• 41:47
  SPEAKER_02: I'm not confident that election actually goes Republican.
• 41:50
  SPEAKER_02: So if that's what they're looking for, they may need to do some checking.
• 41:54
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 41:56
  SPEAKER_01: I agree with you.
• 41:57
  SPEAKER_01: I think a lot of people have gotten used to it in Oregon.
• 41:59
  SPEAKER_01: I think it probably would work well in states like Michigan or something like that
• 42:03
  SPEAKER_01: where it's not all melon ballots and stuff.
• 42:07
  SPEAKER_01: But in places where we're 100% melon, which we're one of the few, I think you're right.
• 42:12
  SPEAKER_01: I think we get crushed.
• 42:14
  SPEAKER_01: I think we got to be a little cautious about it in regards to that.
• 42:18
  SPEAKER_01: I think it's good.
• 42:19
  SPEAKER_01: Well, hey, Reagan, I got my coffee from this morning, but I didn't reheat it.
• 42:23
  SPEAKER_01: I just put ice cubes in it.
• 42:26
  SPEAKER_01: Is that okay or is that kind of gross too?
• 42:29
  SPEAKER_02: When was the coffee brewed?
• 42:31
  SPEAKER_02: This morning.
• 42:32
  SPEAKER_02: Then it's fine.
• 42:33
  SPEAKER_02: You can put ice cubes in coffee from today.
• 42:35
  SPEAKER_02: The thing that people were objecting and have told us,
• 42:38
  SPEAKER_02: I think we have more listeners that are aware of your coffee habits
• 42:42
  SPEAKER_02: than anything else.
• 42:45
  SPEAKER_02: You can't drink yesterday's coffee, Bryan.
• 42:47
  SPEAKER_02: It's just not okay.
• 42:49
  SPEAKER_02: You got to dump that stuff out and start fresh.
• 42:52
  SPEAKER_01: Are you saying that it's 23 hours is the max time?
• 42:56
  SPEAKER_01: Is it like, when's the max time limit in which I can reheat or reuse coffee?
• 43:03
  SPEAKER_02: If you are drinking it, I think it's roughly the workday, same workday.
• 43:07
  SPEAKER_02: So if you brew coffee in the morning,
• 43:09
  SPEAKER_02: you can microwave it that afternoon or drop ice cubes into it or whatever.
• 43:14
  SPEAKER_02: If you come in in the morning and it's yesterday's coffee, it needs to be dumped, Bryan.
• 43:18
  SPEAKER_02: You got to dump it.
• 43:19
  SPEAKER_02: You cannot keep that stuff around.
• 43:21
  SPEAKER_02: It's going to have, I don't know, it's going to have toxins or whatever starting to form it.
• 43:27
  SPEAKER_01: Yes.
• 43:27
  SPEAKER_01: You know, the other thing I do too is I usually use the same coffee cup for about three days.
• 43:34
  SPEAKER_02: I did that on accident today.
• 43:36
  SPEAKER_02: I picked up the same coffee mug that I left in the Keurig that I meant to make
• 43:40
  SPEAKER_02: a second cup with and didn't this morning.
• 43:44
  SPEAKER_02: And my wife sort of looked at me funny.
• 43:47
  SPEAKER_01: Yes, Vicky doesn't like that.
• 43:48
  SPEAKER_01: She hates it when I use my same.
• 43:50
  SPEAKER_01: She'll grab it all the time and put it in the dishwasher.
• 43:52
  SPEAKER_01: And I'm like, what are you doing?
• 43:53
  SPEAKER_01: I've only used that for two days.
• 43:57
  SPEAKER_00: All right, well,
• 43:58
  SPEAKER_00: get home safe and next week we'll start our
• 44:02
  SPEAKER_01: political craziness to the finish line.
• 44:08
  SPEAKER_01: See you, buddy.
• 44:09
  SPEAKER_01: Have a great day.
• 44:10
  SPEAKER_02: Sounds great, Bryan.
• 44:11
  SPEAKER_02: Talk to you soon.