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Braves/Cardinals Total Winner MLB + WNBA Best Bets Saturday 7/12/25 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside I want to kill myself. We are on
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: OWN seven run over the last two days after tonight
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: it was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: start off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: don't even know what to tell you about that. I
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: just don't want to do this anymore. I have never
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: seen anything like this. Man with the slump continuing. Two
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: straight losses, not a good day at all. Own four,
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: I have not had a good season. Man with wookends
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: the slump that I'm on, and the slump continues. I've
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: reached a new peak. Actually, I'm going to burn my
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: browin tack. Man, I don't know what is going on
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: with the Bruins arch hape? Is that what it is?
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: I don't even know it's It's March ninth, I think
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: who even knows? Man, I don't know what data is anymore.
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: But I don't even know what data is anymore. Man,
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: back with you after the worst day that I could
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: possibly have, Back with you. I always am until I
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: die at least oh and two yesterday and yesterday did
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: not go well for me. Own five the worst month
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: that I've ever had in my eighteen years doing this.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: To the slumps, the slump discontinuus, the slump continues. Somebody
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: fucking kill me, please. I don't even know what I
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: should do at this point other than potentially end it all.
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: What's up, everybody, It's towed back with you for better
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: off dead. Saturday, July twelve, four and oh yesterday four
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: and oh sweep on the show. Baby, So I had
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: a nice day yesterday. Man got a little bit lucky
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: on one of them. But we hit on the Indiana
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: fever in the WNBA. That was pretty easy one. They
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: won by double digits. Easy win there on that one.
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: Didn't really pay attention to it because I don't pay
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: attention to the WNBA. But we got a winner there.
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: Met's Kansas City was the one that was looking like
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: it was not gonna hit at all. As uh Sega.
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: He didn't last that long in the game. He only
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: went four innings, walked a couple guys, but he didn't
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: allow any runs. This Kansas City team cannot hit. And
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: I did say that the Mets are gonna have to
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: do the heavy lifting to get that thing over and
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: they did. But I didn't expect it to all come
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: against Kansas City's bullpen in the final two winnings. I
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: think it was it was a one to nothing game,
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: like halfway through the game. That was a two to
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: one Royals lead, I think, pretty late in the game,
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: and then the game won eight three. I think it
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: might have been three to one Royals into the eighth.
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: Then I know the Mets scored seven runs in the
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: final two winnings of the game to put that thing over.
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: Sometimes you need a little bit of luck, man, so
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: that one. I don't know if I necessarily mishandicapped that one,
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: but definitely fewer runs came home against the starting pitchers
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: than I was expecting. Pittsburgh Minnesota. That was an easy
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: under that one hit, two to one final. I mean,
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: not a whole lot else to say about that, but
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: that one hit. The bullpens came to play in that
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: when Paul's skiens again was kind of cut short in
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: his outing, he actually gave up two runs. But Pittsburgh's offense,
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: of course, couldn't do anything against Jen Ryan, so that
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: worked out well. It was a two to one Minnesota win.
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: The bullpens were fine Minnesota used their best relievers, Pittsburgh
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: did not, and then Arizona Anaheim almost became a really
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: frustrating one because we had eight runs scored in the
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: first two winnings of that game. It was a four
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: to four game in the second inning, so at that point,
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: you know at least one more run has to be
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: scored to break that tie, So all you need is
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: one more run on top of that to get over
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: this nine and a half. Of course, it would have
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: been a lot easier if it was a nine than
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: a nine and a half, and we only got I
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: think two or three more runs in the entirety of
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: the rest of the game. It wound up a six
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: to five game. I don't remember if it was tied
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: five to five, because once it's tied five to five,
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: obviously it's over and you have to get an additional
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: run to break that tie. But when it's four to
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: four in the second inning, you're looking at like, this
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: is gonna be like a twenty run game, and it
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: wound up not I mean close to that, Like there
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: were almost no more runs scored than the rest of
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: the game, but it still went over. So there you go.
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: I'm kind of out of it right now. Man, I
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: just woke up not that long ago. I'm not wearing pants,
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: so that's this is better off dead baby. For Saturday,
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: I'm have it showered, wearing the same shirt I was
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: wearing yesterday in the Instagram videos I put out. This
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: is how the sausage is made, baby, Charles, what's up man? Yes,
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: thank you sir. Well, yes, I don't know if we're
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: gonna get a sweep today, but right now, I only
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: have one play today. Man, it's just the it's the
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: way that it is. I don't like the board at
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: all today. I'm gonna give up one play today, and
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: it's gonna mean a game where we don't even know
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: who the starting pitchers are and I'm still gonna go
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: with a total in that game. That's gonna be my
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: only play I'm gonna give out today, so hopefully it's
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: a winner, Zach, what's up man? Royals? Yeah, I mean
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: the Royals basically have a planned parenthood clinic with how
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: many abortions they're performing there on the field there. Dude,
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: Their offense is terrible. Their bullpen is actually good. I
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: did not expect their bullpen to be that bad in
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: that game. I chalk that up as a loss. Dude.
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: It was a three to one game in the eighth inning,
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: so it's like, yeah, this game is not going over
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: and then all of a sudden, the Mets are like, well,
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: hold on a minute. Mets just absolutely exploded late in
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: that game. Man, I don't know. They were dropping bombs
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: on Kaufman Stadium like it was Gaza or something. I
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: don't know. Man, all right, let's talk about today. I
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: forgot to talk about the other w NBA game yesterday,
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: by the way, which was the It was Seattle against Connecticut.
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: I usually just hit every game, but because I was
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: so feverish about the fever play yesterday, I didn't even
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: talk about the other game. But who I mean, I
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: don't know if anybody really cares, because Connecticut is a
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: terrible team. Seattle was a huge favorite. It was just
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: that I would have said that I would have leaned
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: to Seattle to cover that one, because they had actually
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: just lost to Connecticut the game before that, inexplicably, so
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: it was kind of this zigzag spot where the way
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: better team had lost the previous game. But I actually
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: think that Seattle didn't cover it yesterday. Yeah, they won
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: by fourteen. I think they were like a seventeen point favorite.
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: Eighteen point favorites. They actually didn't cover, so that would
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: have been a loss. But I'm never like laying huge
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: spreads like that in the WNBA anyway. Man, But it
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: was just crazy that Seattle lost to Connecticut the game
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: before that. Today we have another mismatch in one of
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: the WNBA games, the earlier afternoon game, Minnesota at Chicago, Chicago.
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: Now with NBA two WNBA two K twenty six cover
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: athlete Angel Rees. Oh man, you know that they're just
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: doing it again. They're just taking all these jabs at
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: Caitlyn Clark. Man, it's just ridiculous. Everybody knows Caitlin Clark
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: hause she specifically has like resulted in this huge rise
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: in popularity of the league. No, let's make the cover
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: athlete Angel Rees instead. Oh my god, this should be
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: get Sophie Cunningham. Actually, if they really want to sell
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: to men, they should put like a hot cover athlete on.
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: But they have not done that. Anyway. Angel Reese's team
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: Chicago is still terrible. They're still without Van der Slut.
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: I mean, I guess they're playing a little bit better
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: recently since now they're used to her being out of there.
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: But an injured for the season, Minnesota is probably the
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: best team in the league at this point. Minnesota is
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: up from ten to twelve and a half is a
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: road favorite. I wouldn't really want to lay that type
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: of price either, though. I mean, I expect Minnesota will
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: win this game. They've won four of their last five.
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: They're kind of rolling. They did just kind of struggle
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: with Chicago recently. They played Chicago at home and only
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: beat them by five, So Minnesota actually might take Chicago
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: a little bit seriously this time. But it is a
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: third straight road game, which is never really that easy,
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: and they're coming in from the Pacific coast, so the
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: travel spot doesn't look terrific. From Minnesota Chicago, they're just
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: staying at home. They just broke a little bit of
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: a loss Street with a pretty easy win over an
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: not very good down team. Take from all that what
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: you will. I guess I mean maybe a slight lean
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: to Minnesota getting that thing done, because they are certainly
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: the way better team, but I don't really have a
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: feel for that. I do actually like Vegas in the
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: second game, which is close to being a play For me,
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: the problem with this game is that you really have
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: to pay attention to the injury report because Vegas is
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: best player. Asia Wilson might be out again for this game.
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: She is their big woman. I mean, dude, they need her, man.
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: I mean, she's their their like post presence in there.
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: She's their best all round player. Regardless. If she's out
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: then obviously it will impact the line a little bit.
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: Right now. I think the books have kind of thrown
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: up a line in this game, kind of splitting the
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: difference here. So I think if it is announced she
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: is going to play, I think she has like a
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: wrist injury right now. I think it's different from the
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: injury she had before she got injured in the previous
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: game and had to come out of the game. Lines
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: up from Pickham to minus one and a half on Vegas.
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: But I think if Wilson isn't going to play, you're
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: going to see this line drop back down a little bit,
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: and if she is, I think to move up a
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: little bit. So I think the books again are kind
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: of splitting the difference there, so you have to kind
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: of really pay attention to it. But to me, it
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: looks like she actually might not play. Based on the
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: reports that I'm seeing, it looks like she's not really
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: that likely to play, but I could be wrong about that.
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's four o'clock PM Eastern is when this
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: game is going off. Given the situation, I do actually
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: lean to Vegas though, because Golden State's playing a fourth
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: straight road game, which is not really easy on the
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: face of it. But they came off blowing out Indiana
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: in Caitlyn Clark's return, which, as I always say, that's
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: a reverse injured player spot. And when a star player
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: comes back, the team has to completely readjust to that
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: player coming back, and sometimes they're just not there. The
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: chemistry is just not there. Indiana had a horrific shooting
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: game in that game. It was just a complete outlier
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: of a game, and Golden State was able to blow
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: them out by nineteen. So Golden State that was kind
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: of a misleading result. There were some factors in there
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: that you have to consider, and Golden State is probably
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: going pretty high on themselves. Yes, they're gonna want to
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: beat Vegas, but Vegas is actually behind them in the
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: standings down. I think if the public is looking at this,
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: they might think, well, wait a minute, how am I
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: getting the team with the above five hundred record as
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: an underdog against the team that's below five hundred. Well,
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: Vegas is still the better of these two teams in
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: my opinion, slightly so if Wilson was playing, I think
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: Vegas should probably be about a three point favorite at home,
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: to be honest, but Golden State does have the above
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: five hundred record Vegas below five hundred. Golden State is
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: playing a lot better than you would expect that they
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: would be the last time these two teams played, and
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: this is part of the handicap as well. Golden State
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: actually annihilated Vegas by almost thirty points the last time
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: they played. Ninety five to sixty eight is an absolutely
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: embarrassing result for Vegas. I think Vegas is going to
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: remember that that was at Golden State, so I think
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: this is kind of a revenge spot for Vegas as well.
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: And Vegas is also coming off a pretty ugly loss
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: to Washington that's not great either. Washington like they kind
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: of have Vegas's number. They keep playing Vegas very competitively,
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: even at Vegas, so I think they just match up
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: fairly well against Vegas. And of course, like I said.
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: Wilson did go down in that game. I'm pretty sure
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: as well. And Vegas was coming off a pretty tough
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: game against the Liberty of the Game before that, and
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: it was a fifth straight road game, so it's really
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: not a great spot for Vegas in that game. Now
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: they returning home, and I know I always say in
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: these sports when you return home, that's not the greatest
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: spot either, because you kind of have to get back
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: to family life whatever. I think Vegas has had three
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: or four days off though, so Vegas does have an
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: extra day off in comparison to what Golden State has,
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: So I think that's enough time off that maybe they
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: could just break this losing streak. Whatever. Overall, I leaned
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: to Vegas. I think if we were sure that Wilson
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: was gonna play, I would probably just jump in on Vegas.
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: But then again, actually, you know what, because she's injured,
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna do it anyway, you know what, Fuck it,
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: Let's let's have a w let's have some WNBA actually,
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: and let's have some action with the ladies today. Women's action. Man,
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna do it. Wow, I actually see it out there,
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: A plus one on Vegas. I actually see it out there.
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: Probably can't get the money line as an underdog, though,
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: but you can get plus one and just throw all
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: the money on that. Yeah, you know what, let's do it, Stacks.
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: What's up man? Yeah? Women, obviously I'm getting heat right
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: now on Twitter again for saying that we should abolish
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: the nineteenth Amendment. Thanks for nineteen thousand followers on Twitter.
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: By the way, everybody, thank you very much for that.
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: So we're gonna go with Las Vegas plus one. I
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: found out there at one of the books. I forget
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: which book it was. I just looked real quick at
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: the Massachusetts books. You can lay the money line though.
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: They have a short money line price on them right
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: now at about minus one oh six. Whatever. If you're
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: getting them at an underdog price, and I didn't, why
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: wasn't I thinking about this? Man? If Wilson isn't playing,
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: because I'm pretty sure she played in the last game, right,
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: let me just make sure of that before I actually
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: say this is definitively a play here. If she got
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: injured in the last game, you know what, she didn't
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: fuck all right? So that was the injured player, Spottle.
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: The Vegas did lose the game, which is kind of embarrassing. Yeah,
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: she didn't play in that game. She got injured in
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: the previous game. You know what, never mind, scratch it,
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: we'll delete that. Scratch it. No WNBA played today, but
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: I do lean to Vegas. It's almost to play for me.
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: How about that? And watch them win, and then I'll
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: be pissed that I said that it was not a play.
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: All right, let's go to Major League Baseball. We have
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: Cubs Yankees people hailing this, of course as a World
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: Series preview potentially here. The Yankees won yesterday. I think
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: it'll blowout if I remember correctly, Yeah, eleven and nothing.
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: Just kind of ridiculous there. I think the Cubs went
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: with a boope end game yesterday, which is not great
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: whenever you do that. Carlos Rodon pitched almost the entire game,
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: so the Yankees bulpen is definitely in good shape coming
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: into this game, so I don't love that for the Cubs.
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: Although the Cubs I think didn't really have to use
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: any of their best relievers either yesterday because it was
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: a blowout so the game was over. This is a
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: good starting pitching matchup with Matthew Boyd for the Cubs.
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: Two point five two ERA one point oh seven whip
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: good numbers, a little bit worse on the road, but
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: still pretty good. Two point eight four road ERA two
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: starts this month so far fourteen to two strike out
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: walk ratio. If you go back to his start to
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: end the previous month, seventeen to two strike out walk
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: ratio because he didn't walk anybody in six innings in
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: that start, He's only given up two runs total over
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: those three starts. Cubs have won all three of the starts.
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: Had a one point five ERA across the last two starts.
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: He's pitching well, quite obviously against the Yankees. His numbers
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: are okay. In twenty eight at bass he saw him
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: to two fifty average, but he does have more walks
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: than strikeouts seven strikeouts, nine walks, but five of the
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: walks are Aaron Judge, so it looks like he kind
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: of pitches around Judge a little bit. Has allowed an
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: eight sixty one ops though Judge also with a home
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: run against him in there. But other than that, I mean,
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: there are a couple other Yankees hitters that do some
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: damage to them, but overall, I don't think Boyd is
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: going to be that bad in this game, and he's
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: up against the Yankees Ace Max Freed two point two
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: seven ERA, point nine to six whip really good at home,
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: one point eight two ERA in the season. He is
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: starting to be like he's pitching a little bit worse
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: in the last couple of games. Granted those are both
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: on the road against Toronto, who's definitely hitting better right now.
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: I in the Mets so have a pretty good offense.
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: He had a five point seven to three ERA over
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: those two starts and only a seven to three strikeout
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: walk ratio, which is not as good. So he isn't
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: really in the greatest form right now. I wouldn't say
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: a little bit worse than what he has been doing
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: for the rest of the season. Although there's no way
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: that you can maintain like a sub to ERA for
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: the entire season at this point. Man very very rare
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: that somebody's gonna do that. Freed is still good, but
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: maybe not amazing like he has been for most of
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: the season, So right now he's maybe not in exactly
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: the greatest form. His numbers are okay against the Cubs,
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: so we know the Cubs do have a good offense.
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: Eighty eight at bats really good, twenty two to four
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: strike a walk ratio, but Half has hit him pretty
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: hard five for nine with two of them runs, two
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: sixty one average allowed to the Cubs in general, and
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: seven point thirty seven ops, so it looks like both
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: starting pitchers have kind of mediocre numbers. I do see
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: it looks like a lot of money is coming in
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: on the under in this game, though, and I'm not
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: quite sure that I'm ready to agree with that. I mean,
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: the Yankee Yankee Stadium is a pretty hitter friendly park. Well,
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: the totals dropped from May and a half to eight,
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: so I did see money, according to Action Network coming
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: in on the under. But here on pregame we see
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: sixty one percent of tickets ninety two percent of the
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: cash on the over. I mean, you know, the public's
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: gonna be on and over with two offenses like this,
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: and with the Yankees scoring eleven runs yesterday, I wouldn't
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: I would hesitate to want to play an under in
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: this game though, even though the bullpens are in okay
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: shape coming into this one. Both starting pitchers are pretty
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: good as well well. But Freed isn't exactly in the
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: greatest forum right now, and I don't exactly love the
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: matchup numbers, so I'm just gonna stay away from that.
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: It does look like the money is also coming in
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: on the cub side. Yankees down for my just one
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: sixty five to fifty two, sixty nine percent of tickets,
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: sixty seven percent of the cash, And I think the
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: angle there is probably maybe that it's just you're always
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: paying too much of a price to play the Yankees. Basically,
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: Freed again isn't in the greatest form right now. Cubs
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: have at least been able to hit him a little
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: bit in the past, and the Cubs are kind of
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: in a bounced back spot. Ef you're getting demolished last night.
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: A lot of times, if a team gets shut out
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: and gets absolutely embarrassed, you kind of want to play
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: on that team in the next game. So I think
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: that's kind of the thought there. It's almost like a
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: zig zag type of spot. But it's not gonna be
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: a play that I'm gonna recommend. JR. What's up, man,
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: Thanks for hanging out again, everybody, all the people that
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: hang out daily, Man, I don't know why you do it.
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: You guys must be insane. Seattle at Detroit Detroit Ahead
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: Schooble day completely erupt on them. Yesterday's school didn't do
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: very well. He gave up four runs. I know the
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: entire team gave up twelve runs. The bullpend got demolished yesterday.
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: But Schooble did have one of his worst outings of
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: the year. Seattle put up a lot of runs yesterday
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: and a really crazy twelve to three win. So this game,
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: I mean, it does look like it's kind of a
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: bounce back spot for Detroit after that, and we know
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: Detroit is good at home. But in this game, man,
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: the pitching matchup is interesting because on the surface, it
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: looks like it's a good pitching matchup, Kirby against Myz
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: And I think the money is coming in on the
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: under in this game. It's the totals already down from
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: eight to seven and a half. We see fifty one
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets on the under, although eighty one percent
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: of cash on the over. But this to me is
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: kind of a substantial move from the eight to the
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: seven and a half through the eight, although eight isn't
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: a key number. But on Action Network, actually Network was
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: saying there was a lot of money coming in on
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: the under in this game, and I hesitate to do that,
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: even though, again on the surface, it looks like we
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: do have two pretty good starting pitchers here based on
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: their numbers. I'll explain in a minute why I hesitate
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: to do that, But I also kind of hesitate with
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: these bullpends, even though both bullpends are generally fairly good.
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: Detroit used a lot of their bullpend yesterday. Seattle is
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: George Kirby starting. He has a four point two two ERA,
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: which doesn't look that good, but he's I think he's
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: coming back from injury. He was out at some point
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: during the year. He does have a really good one
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: point one whip, though on the road he's a little
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: bit worse though four point nine to eighty RA. He
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: is pitching really well over the last few starts fourteen
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: to zero strike at walker right sure, with only one
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: run across twelve and a third innings and seven hits
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: all out over the last two starts. Granted it was
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: at home in both of those starts, and it was
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: against too bad offenses Kansas City and Pittsburgh, but he
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: is still pitching well generally overall. He's in good form
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: right now against Detroit, though he does not have good
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: numbers and fifty eight at bats two ninety three batting
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: average allowed, eight eighty ops. Jake Rogers is three for
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: five with two homers off him, and I talk about
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: hits plus runs with the RBI's as player props. If
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: you want to do that, find a guy that has
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: good historic numbers against a starting pitcher, although usually I
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: look for like a bigger sample size if I want
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: to do that, although I almost never play props, so
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: take from all that when you will. The eighteen to
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: three strggle walk ratio is good, but Kirby has not
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: really done that well against Detroit, so that has me
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: hesitating on the under casey Mys pitching for Detroit. I
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: still think this guy has got to be due for
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: some regression, man, because he's never been as good as
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: he's pitching this year two point six three ERA though
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: one point one to eight WHIP, and he has been
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: good recently at a twenty four to seven streggle walk
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: ratio last month two point nine to three ERA has
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: been good, and his numbers against Seattle fairly good and
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: thirty three at bats to twelve average, but a somewhat
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: high seven to eighty two ops. Almost just because Polanco
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: specifically does all the damage against him though, five for
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: fourteen of two of them runs, so I do think
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: Myz does have the benefit of the matchup a little bit.
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: I think Seattle has advantage just because of the bullpen
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: usage that happened yesterday. The number has gone down on
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: Detroit for minus one thirty five to minus one thirteen,
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: So some significant market indicators against Detroit in this game,
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: and on Seattle eighty seven percent of tickets only seventy
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: five percent of ash in Detroit. I just can't do it, man,
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: based on Kirby's specific numbers against Detroit, that kind of
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: gives me hesitation and I just stay away from Metso
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: that's that Pittsburgh at Minnesota. Minnesota used a bunch of
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: their best relievers yesterday, so I think Minnesota's bullpen has
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: actually had a disadvantage here. The Pittsburgh's bullpen is not
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: very good. I think Minnesota's at a disadvantage in general
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: because we don't even know who's gonna start for them today,
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: so it's a complete question mark where we're gonna get
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: from Minnesota's a pitching in this game. Pittsburgh, their bullpen
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: is better rested and at least we know who their
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: pitcher is gonna be. It's Mike Burrows, who is in
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: his rookie season, and he's been okay three point six
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: y three ERA one point three to one whip. He's
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: he's been better on the road two point eight to
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: one roadie al right. Last outing he didn't give up
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: any runs. Over his last three outings, he's given up
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: one or fewer earned runs, but he isn't going deep
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: into these games. Last outing was the only time out
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: of those three that he went five innings. He walked
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: four guys in that outing, which is a little bit
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: of a concern, but over the course of the whole season,
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: he does have a forty one to fourteen strike a
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: walk ratio, which isn't that bad. His numbers are actually
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: pretty good. He has more strikeouts than innings pitch, fewer
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: hits allowed than thenings pitch. The home run ball has
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: been a little bit of an issue for him, but
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: it hasn't really come up as much recently. He's only
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: allowed one home run over those last three starts, so
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: he is kind of pitching well. And he's a guy
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: who has never been seen before by Minnesota. So these
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: young pitchers. As I always preach, a young pitcher with
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: good stuff tends to have an advantage over an offense
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: that hasn't seen them most before, especially an offense that
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: isn't really that good. And given that we don't even
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: know who's pitching for Minnesota here in Minnesota's bulp and
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: used most of their best relievers yesterday, I think Pittsburgh
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: might be worth a look in this game. On the
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: money line, we're seeing it right now. Minnesota is just
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: sitting in a minus one forty favorite. I think you
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: could maybe take a shot with Pittsburgh on the money
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: line in that game. Not gonna be a play for me, though.
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: Next up is the one play I talked about the
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: other undecided pitcher. I'm still gonna go over in Atlanta
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis, And I know I always say you usually
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: want to get the best of the number nine because
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: it's a key number in baseball. Nine is what breaks
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: the four to four tie. You can only find nine
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: and a half right now, just like yesterday. Unfortunately, I
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: think you have to pay probably about close to minus
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: one thirty to get it over nine. So we can
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: go nine and a half in this and hope that
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: we still get over that, even though having to get
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: over that hook with the key number there. But I
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: think this is gonna be an over game man Saint
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: Louis and Atlanta. I know yesterday's game went over as well,
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: but we saw a lot of bullpen usage on both
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: sides of yesterday's game. And I don't love either one
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: of these bullpens anyway, So I think the bullpen bullpens
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: are at a disadvantage here for both teams. And Lanta
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: doesn't even know who they're starting pitcher is gonna be,
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: so that's not good either, especially when their bullpend hasn't
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: been great and it's fairly used up after yesterday. That's
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: not a good side if they're going with a starter
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: who's not gonna last very long or maybe a bullpend
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: game here, so that doesn't look good. And then on
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: the other side, Eric Fetti, I think is completely a
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: guy you want to fade right now for Saint Louis
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: four point seven to ninety IRA one point four to
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: seven whip. He has awful stats on the season, putting
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: way too many guys on base, and he's been even
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: worse at home five point six y five home The
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: ra Over his recent starts, he's been absolutely awful. Two
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: starts in a row where he did not even strike
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: out anybody and he walked seven a zero to seven
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: strike out walk ratio only lasted one and a third
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: in the previous game, but it was bad. And I
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: know it was against the Cubs, they're a good offense.
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: But four walks, no strikeouts, three runs allowed. That is bad.
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: And then the previous start was against a really bad
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh team. He gave up seven runs in that outing.
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: Gave up seven runs the outing before that, again against Chicago,
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: the Cubs, again the horror, good team. But still he's
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: been awful. And his strikeout walk ratio in the month
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: of June was terrible too, eighteen to fifteen. So he
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: has been awful. Man. His command hasn't been there. He's
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: given up a lot of runs. There's nothing to like
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: about Fetti right now. And versus the Braves, we have
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: a huge sample size of ninety seven at bats he
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: has more walks than strikeouts against them, and that many
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: at bats ten strikeouts, thirteen walks. Leno Ozuna specifically absolutely
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: bombs this guy. He's nine for fifteen with two two
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: home runs and five walks against him, so that's definitely
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: a player prop up potential there in Akunya as well,
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: five or seventeen with two home runs. We'll see what
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: happens with this, But overall, Fetti has awful numbers against
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: Atlanta three seventy one average, one thy one, sixteen ops.
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: So I think Fetti is absolutely fade material, a complete
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: fade here in this one. We're going over the total
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: nine and a half. Man, I haven't seen what's gonna
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: go on with this total as far as the market,
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: it's kind of just sitting there nine and a half.
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: It is juice to the under as we can see
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: here though, but I just don't see. I don't see
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: a nine out there that's not too heavily juiced towards
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: the over on the nine. But that's the play that
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: I like, Man, that's the only play that I'm gonna
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: have today. Actually, Charles, what's up? Man? Will Ralei break
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: the home run record? I'm gonna say no, he will not.
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: We're not in the steroid era anymore, man, so he's
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: not gonna break bonds record. He's slightly behind him going
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: into the All Star break, and you get into the
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: post All Star Break stuff. A lot of times, these
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: guys start getting tired later in the season. Again, we're
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: not Everybody's not roided up anymore at this point, so
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: I don't think it's gonna happen. It might, it'll make
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: for some entertaining storylines towards the end, but I honestly
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: don't even think it's gonna be that close. I don't
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: think he's gonna get to seventy. All right, we got
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: Miami Baltimore. Boy, this is a bad, bad series. Baltimore
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: has won three games in a row, though, and they
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: did win yesterday against my even though Dean Creamer was
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: on the mound. Baltimore was coming off playing a double header.
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: I told you I actually liked Miami in this game,
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: but Cabrera gave up too many hits, didn't get the
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: job done. Neither bullpen saw a lot of you suggest today.
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: Creamer did shockingly well yesterday, even though I don't think
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: he's good at all. Both bullpens are fairly rested here,
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: but they're both bad bullpens. So I would not put
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: any trust in these bullpens. I don't know if I
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: would want to trust Jansen junk either. From the Marlins,
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: the junk guy, the junk pitcher man. Maybe he is
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: a sanitation worker, I don't know, or he's one of
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: those cleanup services when they come to remove all your
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: old stuff that you don't want anymore. Three point one
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: two ERA one point zero for a whip on the
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: season is pretty good, though, but he's been worse on
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: the road four point seven ERA. He was coming out
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: of a bullpen for a bit. Now he's starting all though.
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: His last two starts have actually been pretty good this month,
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: going six innings in each ten to two strike aut
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: walk ration, including one at Cincinnati, which is not a
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: easy place to pitch. So he's been good in those
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: last two starts, giving up only two runs across those
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: two starts and seven hits in twelve innings. Facing a
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: Baltimore offense that is not very good and isn't that
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: familiar with him. They only have five at bats off him,
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: though they are two for five off him four hundred
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: average one thousand ops. But still, Junk is fairly unfamiliar
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: to Baltimore, so he might do okay. He's up against
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: Trevor Rodgers, who is just surprising me with how well
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: he's pitching so far, man a one point five to
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: seven ERA point eight to seven whip. I mean, his
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: numbers in the minor leagues this year just weren't good
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: at all. And I'm thinking, well, Baltimore's just bringing him
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: up because they need a guy to ad to the rotation.
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: I did not expect him to be anywhere near this good.
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: He has a zero ERA at home so far. It
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: might have been only one home start though, ah, yes,
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: only one home start, but it was a great eight
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: inning shutout with no walks against Texas, three hits allowed,
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: four strike gots. Texas not a good offense. But still
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: he has three games where he hasn't even a lot
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: run out of his five starts. Baltimore's actually won four
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: of his five starts. He is pitching well, so I
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: mean that's just the way that it is. And he's
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: facing a bad Marlins offense who has never seen him before.
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: Oh and by the way, Rogers, if we remember correctly,
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: his last team and he was on was the Miami Marlins.
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: He was on their team into last season and then
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: he got traded. I think it was on Baltimore just
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: at the end of the season. So I believe this
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: is going to be the first time Rogers is facing
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: his former team that got rid of him, and you
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: know that actually kind of pumps up a pitcher. They
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: tend to get pretty excited and do fairly well because
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: they want to prove their worth to that team that
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: got rid of them, you know what I mean. So
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: I think this is a big game for Rogers facing
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: his former team, even though they stink. Miami, he might
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: be excited and come out with fire again. Then he
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: is pitching well right now, but I still again, based
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: on his triple A stats this year and his major
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: league stats over his career, there's no way he can
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: keep this up, right, I mean, look at his career numbers.
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: Four point one eighty r A and one point three
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: seven whip is just way too high. So I don't
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: see how he's gonna be able to keep this up.
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: And he wasn't good with Baltimore last year either or
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: with Miami for that matter. But he is pitching well
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: right now, and this is a start where I think
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: he is gonna show up, So I would slightly be
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: leaning to Baltimore in this one. Baltimore is up for
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: minus one fifty five to minus one sixty five, but
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: they're public seventy two percent tickets and the cash is
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: all coming back in on Miami though, fifty nine percent
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: of the cash on Miami, So I guess do with
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: all that what you will. I think the price is
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: probably too high on Baltimore though, which is probably why
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: some of the money is fading them at this point.
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: I think it's maybe more of a price thing, like
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: who's Baltimore to be laying a price like that, even
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: though they are at home, and I do think they
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: have a little bit of an edge. Yeah, Dean Creamer,
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: d Yeah, d Creamer. That is a terrible name, right,
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: Some people pronounce it Cramer, so I don't even really
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: know how it's actually pronounced. Bring Yes, we should bring
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: back steroids, dude. I grew up in the UH in
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: the nineties. Man, we had the steroid era. It was
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: some of the most entertaining baseball you'll ever see. Man.
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: We had the Bash Brothers, you know, McGuire, Conseko, Staares, whatever,
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: and then we had a Giambi, and then we had
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: and they were all on the A's at one at
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: one time, I think, And we had, of course the
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: big thing that really got everybody's like, I don't think
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: I've ever seen more people watching baseball than the McGuire
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: Sosa home run race. And they were trying to set
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: the new record over Roger Morris's and like one of
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: them was gonna do it, and they were both neck
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: and neck. That was some of the most entertaining baseball,
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: especially because they were in the same divisions. They were
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: playing against each other a lot down the stretch too.
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: Those are crazy times. Man. That got more eyes on
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: it than the Bonds breaking the record again later on.
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: So yeah, all right, and then we got a let's
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: keep going, man. We have Dodgers Giants. I mean, this
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: is a huge series, big divisional series, teams only separated
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: by four games now, with San Francisco winning four of
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: the last or five of the last six games and
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: winning yesterday, which I kind of didn't think that would happen.
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: Logan Webb actually does not do well against the Dodgers.
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: He didn't do well in the game yesterday, but San
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: Francisco still got out of there with an eighty seven win.
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: Both teams use some of their better relievers yesterday, so
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: I don't know if I love the bullpen situation here.
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: San Francisco does have the better of the two bullpens,
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: and LA is basically going with a bullpen game here. Remember,
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: because Otani is listed as the starter. This is gonna
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: be I think his fourth or fifth start. But he's
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: gone one or two innings in every one of his
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: outings so far, so that's what I expect. Again, he'll
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: probably go too, maybe at most three innings. He has
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: been good. He has in a lot of runs. Since
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: the first inning that he pitched, he has like six
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: strikeouts and six innings pitched I think, and only one
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: run allowed. So he is pitching pretty well. But he's
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: only gonna be in the game for a little bit,
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: so you are gonna get a lot of Dodgers bulp
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: and action here. San Francisco is landing route pitching, and
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: even those three point three to ninety r ras pretty good.
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: One point four to six whip is not very good.
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: He's been better at home though, one point eight five HOMEYRA,
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: so he's good at home, but he's just putting way
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: too many guys on base. Dude. He's walked at least
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: two guys in every outing going all the way back
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: to May seventeenth. That is bad. This is way too
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: many walks. The two outings this month. I know these
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: are good offenses Arizona and Philly that he faced. San
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: Francisco actually won those two games, and they've actually won
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: his last four starts in a row, and he hasn't
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: a lot more than two hour runs in any of them.
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: But I think it's misleading because look at these last
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: two starts, seven strikeouts, six walks. I mean, you're not
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: gonna keep getting away with that man, especially against another
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: good offense here are the Dodgers. I know he got
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: away with it a little bit in those previous two games,
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: but I don't think it's gonna continue. Dodgers have good
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: numbers against someone, though it's a small sample size of
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: fourteen three to four strike a walk. Ratio Otani does
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: have a home run off him three point fifty seven
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: average overall of the Dodgers in one thy two fourteen ohps.
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: So this game, I think the way to look at
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: this game is the over I mean, you got a
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: couple of bullpens that are pretty used up right now.
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: I think the Dodgers are gonna be going to their
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: bullpen pretty early in the game here with though Tani
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: being the starter San Francisco, I don't trust ROUPI either.
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: Totals up from eight to eight with Juice here on
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: the over, eighty six percent tickets, nine to nine percent
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: of cash on the over. Public probably gonna be on
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: the over as well. But in this case, I think
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: I probably agree with it, and the money is coming
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: in on the Dodgers for what it's worth. But I
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: think it's way too much of a price delay. With
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: the Dodgers up from minus one forty minus one fifty
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: seven eighty percent tickets, ninety five percent of cash on them,
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: just the fact that Otani is starting like command that
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: much respect in the marketplace seems a little bit weird
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: to me. I mean, I would probably not want to
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: look that way either. I think it's too much of
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: a price to lay, although the Dodgers are gonna at
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: least be in a bounce back spot here. But to me,
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: even though this is a picture friendly park, I think
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: over it's probably the lead in there. Thanks for reposting, Jr.
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: Thanks for the Twitter listening on Twitter folks, and of
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: course on YouTube as well. Keep doing it, baby Colorado
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: at Cincinnati. Colorado actually won yesterday, so Colorado actually got
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: a win. Colorado used some of their better relievers yesterday,
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: although better is kind of a relative thing because Colorado's
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: bullpend's not good. Cincinnati's isn't that great either, But man,
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: I mean, I think you're probably gonna see Cincinnati put
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: up some runs here after they didn't score a lot yesterday.
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: Bradley Blaylock is listed as a starter for the Rockies here,
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: and he it has been very rocky for him. He's
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: a really young pitcher. Twelve point nine to fort era
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: though this year so for on two point six whip
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: very bad. He was better on the road, but I
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: mean that's relative as well. Seven point one one ERA
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: is not exactly good. He pitched early in the season.
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: Rockies lost all five of his starts, and he got
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: sent down, or if he got absolutely blasted for twelve
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: runs against the Padres three on runs allowed in that start.
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: He was not pitching well overall. To six strike a
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: walk right show and get up six home runs, twenty
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: three ear in runs, and twenty seven hits in sixteen innings.
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: Wasn't getting the job them. I don't see any reason
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: to think that he's going to get the job done here.
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: Although maybe when he was down in Triple A or whatever,
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: maybe they tried to work with them fix some stuff.
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: The Reds actually faced him this year once already, so
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: the Reds actually have familiarity with him too. And you
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: know I talk about when a young pitcher is unfamiliar
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: to the opposing hitters, they tend to do a little
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: bit better. Well, he's not gonna have that advantage here either,
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: because the Reds already faced him. I think at Coursefield
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: earlier this year, fifteen at bats they get seven hits off.
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: I'm a four to sixty seven average, one thy thirty
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: three ops. So Blaylock struggled in that start as well.
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: I'm not liking it at all, Man, and this is
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: a pretty hit or friendly park. Two Brady Singer is
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: gonna be pitching for Cincinnati. He's not having a great
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: season either, really, four point three two ERA, one point
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: three to six whip not great. Better at home three
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: point nine to nine ERA. But he has been struggling
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: this month. He's been very mediocre. The Reds have lost
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: four straight starts of his. He's only given up two
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: runs and he started, but he only lasted three innings
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: against my Red Sox seven to three. Strike a walk
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: race here this month, not exactly good four point five.
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: Era had kind of an okay performance last time out
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: against Miami, but they're a bad offense, so I don't
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: think Singer is in great form either. He does have
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: fairly good numbers against the Rockies though, in twenty six
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: at bats two sixty nine average sixty eight ops, so
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: maybe Singer will bounce back against a weak offense here.
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: So I think the way to look at this game again,
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: it's gonna be a high total in this one. Let
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: me see, Yeah, it's ten and a half. Although we
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: do see money coming in on the under in this one,
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: fifty five percent tickets on the over, eighty one percent
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: of catch in the under. I think the way to
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: look at this is to play Cincinnati to go over
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: their team total. Though you're gonna need them to go
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: over like six runs though probably in this game, but
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: after they faltered offensively yesterday, it's still a hitter friendly park,
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: and facing a guy like Blaylock that they've already seen
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: him before, I think Cincinnati will pour it on in
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: this game. Colorado's bullpen is not really much of a
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: threat either to hold an offense and check. So I
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: think Cincinnati probably to score over their team total is
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: probably the way to look at that game. Otani single
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: season home run record for a pitcher, well, I don't know,
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: because he'd have to beat his own record probably, or
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: maybe Babe Ruth still holds the record for it. I
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: don't even know. I don't know what the record is
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: for that, But Babe Ruth was hitting home runs even
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: when he was a pitcher. O'tani was a pitcher until
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: the last like two seasons or so, so he was
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: doing both as well. So he has seasons of his
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: own where he had a lot of home runs when
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: he was also a pitcher. So I don't know the
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: answer of that. Tampa at my Red Sox, the Red
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: Sox continue to win, even though I told you, yeah,
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: they're playing really well right now. They're hot. Their offense
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: is pretty hot right now, but beating Washington to Colorado
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: not that impressive. And though now they've beaten Tampa twice,
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: but again by one run each time. And I told
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: you that early in the season the Red Sox probably
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: were a little bit better than they looked because they
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: lost a lot of one run games, and now they're
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: winning some one run games, so some of this might
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: turn around. And yesterday, of course, they're losing in the
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: ninth inning and Rafaela, who's been really hitting well, recently
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: hit a walk off to run home run. I believe
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: yesterday huge hit for him. He's playing really well right now. Man,
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: he's I think he is definitely a young star. Red
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: Sox have a lot of young talent on the team. Man.
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: As a Red Sox fan, I am excited to see
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: what they do. I don't think it's gonna be something
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: that coalesces this year. Everybody's saying they're gonna win the
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: World Series. Now I'm not even sure they're gonna make
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: the playoffs. But I mean, I like how this young
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: team is shaping up for the you know, the next
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: few years. Probably hopefully they can at least make a
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: run at a championship in the near future. If Tampa
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: is playing at Boston. Shane Boz is pitching for Tampa.
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: He's been mediocre this season four point three four ERA,
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: one point two to six whip better on the road,
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: though three point one ERA on the road. He had
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: face the Red Sox twice. His last outing was at
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: Fenway Park against the Red Sox Tampa won the game,
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: but Boz was mediocre in the game. He walked three guys,
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: struck up five and five and a third, and gave
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: up three on runs, limited the Red Sox to three hits.
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: Though wasn't his worst start, and against the Red Sox
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: early in the season in Tampa, he did really well
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: against them with eleven strikeouts and six innings, no walks,
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: two hits allowed in one run. Overall, Boz actually does
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: do well against the Red Sox in fifty seven of
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: bats to eleven batting average of five to ninety ops.
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: Red Sox don't tend to hit him that well. He's
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: in pretty good for him in two starts this month,
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: man with a high strikeout rat even though I know
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: the Rays lost both of his starts. Wasn't exactly his
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: fault because he went thirteen innings combined. He did allow
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: three home runs, which is a little bit of a concern,
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: but he had an eighteen to three strikeout walk ratio,
• 40:51
  Speaker 1: so yeah, the home runs are a little bit of
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: an issue for him. He's allowed seventeen on the season.
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: I mean, he does pitch at a home run friendly
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: park in Steinbrenner field there, the spring training stadium at
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: Tampa plays, and yes, Fenway is also pretty home run conducive.
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: But I think he might do pretty well in this
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: game against the Red Sox, and he hasn't been bad
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: against him this year, and overall he does pitch well
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: against him. He's gonna have to go up against Garrett Crochet, though,
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: who is the Red Sox ace. Obviously two point three
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: to ninety RA, one point zero nine whip. He's been
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: a little bit worse at home two point seven ninety RA,
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: but I mean he's Crochet Man. He's really good overall.
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: I had a fifty five to eight strike a walk
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: ratio in June. The Red Sox have won six of
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: his last seven starts, I think is what that is.
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: Coming off not the greatest start against Washington. Only went
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: five innes, give up nine hits and two walks. I mean,
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: that's pretty bad. He had over a two whip in
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: that game, but he still held him to tour and
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: runs somehow and struck out seven. But I'm not ready
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: to say he's in bad form, although he did give
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: up five runs the previous start against Cincinnati, but through
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: those three starts, he still had a U what is
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: that a twenty six to six strike a walk ratio.
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: So he's still producing. Man, He's still got a high
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: strikeout rate, low walk rate, he's still got command. And
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: against the Rays they only have eight at bats. Ever
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: against him in they're over eight with three strikeouts and
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: a walk, so a zero average and a one to eleven.
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: Oh ps if you can do the math on that one.
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: Some easy math there. So this one, now, it looks
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: like both starting pitchers match up pretty well in this game.
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: Money is actually coming in on the over, though it's
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: flipped from eight juice to the under, to juice to
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: the over, sixty tickets ninety seven percent of cash on
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: the over. I would be looking under in the first
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: five innings in this one because I think both starting
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: pitchers actually might do well and match up pretty well.
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: But I don't trust the bullpens right now. Both bullpens
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: had a lot of usage yesterday, especially the Red Sox,
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: so I think under first five innings is probably the
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: way I would look at that game. Not a very
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: strong lean on that one, but that's those are my
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: thoughts on that one. Yeah, the Red Sox are not
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: gonna make it to the World series. Man, it's probably
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: gonna be the Yankees. Unfortunately, the Yankees have a really
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: high run to wrenchal and one of the best offenses,
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: and they have pretty decent pitching as well. Crochet can
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: knit together a good game, that's right. Yeah, shout out
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: to that uh Anna chick who at least was doing
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: crocheting with Crochet. I don't know if you've seen this.
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: She's like kind of a local, uh not celebrity really,
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: but like local famous Red Sox fan because she goes
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: to a lot of Red Sox games and when Crochet pitches,
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: she crochetes like sweaters in the stands while he's pitching.
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: It's a ridiculous concept. I think it is pretty hilarious,
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: So shout out to her. She probably hates me for
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: my Yeah, you can check that out. She probably hates
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: me though for probably her politics would be completely the
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: opposite of mine. But I do think she's funny. All right,
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: Cleveland at the White Sox. Remember they played a double
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: header yesterday, so the bullpend situation is pretty bad for
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: both these teams. The bullpends basically got unloaded yesterday, so
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: pretty much every relief pitcher had to get into the
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: games yesterday, so that's not a good sign for the
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: pitching here. Although Cleveland does have their best starter going
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: with Tanner Biby. His numbers aren't really good this year though,
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: four point three to five ERA and one point two
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: to three whips, so he's been struggling a bit. He's
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: been worse on the road to significantly worse five point
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: five to eight Roady Ra, which isn't that great a
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: sign either. Not pitching well this month either. Over two starts,
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: he didn't make it five innings in either of them. Yes,
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: they were both on the road against some good teams
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: the Cubs in Houston, but he gave up nine runs
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: over that span five walks. In addition, it's ten hits,
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: two home runs, eight strikeouts. Not good numbers, man. Yeah,
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: so Biby is definitely struggling right now, but he is
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: stepping down in class if he's a bad White Sox
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: lineup and he does do well against them, and a
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: shockingly limited sample size given that they're in the same division,
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: they only have fourteen at bats against him two fourteen
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: average eight thirty eight ops is a little bit high,
• 44:56
  Speaker 1: though almost entirely just because Taylor has a home run
• 44:59
  Speaker 1: off and though, so I'm not sure that I expect
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: Biby to really do that bad in this game, but
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: he isn't in great form so and you have to
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: you definitely have to worry about the bullpens. He's going
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: up against Sean Burke, who but I believe is a
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: rookie for the White Sox. This year hasn't been that
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: great either, four point four ERA one point four to
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: two whip. He's been better at home though, three point
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: eight one ERA, so the splits are in his favor.
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: But he's coming off a really bad outing against Toronto,
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: although maybe he was in a letdown spot because he
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: had a really good outing against the Dodgers the game
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: before that. He actually strung together three pretty good starts
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: in a row against some decent offenses in Saint Louis,
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: Arizona and the Dodgers, and then he imploded last time out,
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: giving up six runs of three home runs, three walks,
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: only two strikeouts against Toronto. So that wasn't good. So
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: he might be tiring a little bit man because he's
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: a young guy, or that was a blip. It's hard
• 45:51
  Speaker 1: to tell, like, is he actually starting to falter again?
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: Is this a sign that he's in bad form again
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: or was that just a letdown spot off that big
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: Dodger performance. I think it's hard to say he has
• 46:03
  Speaker 1: done well against Cleveland in the past for the most part.
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: Sixteen at bats not a lot, but one twenty five average,
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: six forty six ops. Did give up a home run
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: to Santana, who's still hitting even though he's probably forty
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: years old now. Five to five strike a walk ratio
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: is not very good this game, man. I mean, both
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: offenses are so bad, like because of the bullpen usage.
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: I kind of want to say over is the way
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: to look in this game. But you do have to
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: worry about the fact that both offenses suck. But I
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: think maybe you could get the runs in this game
• 46:32
  Speaker 1: because the pitching just doesn't look like it's gonna be
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: necessarily that great here. Even though the matchup numbers look okay,
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: bullpens once they come in, it's sort of like you're
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: probably gonna get some runs once the bullpens are in.
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: The totals up from eight and a half to nine now,
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: so it is kind of moving up. Sixty percent tickets,
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: ninety five percent of the cash on the over, probably
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: the over would be worth a look. Maybe I don't
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: want to deal with it though. Mets at Kansas City.
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: Of course, Kansas City, as we talked about, imploded late
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: in the game yesterday, and they actually lost a four
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: game win streak. And you know a lot of times
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: I say when a team loses a wind streak like that,
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: they tend to be hung over in the next game,
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: especially kind of the way they lost. They almost had
• 47:11
  Speaker 1: to win over the Mets, looked like they were going
• 47:13
  Speaker 1: to get this big win over the Mets, and then
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: their bulp and completely implodes in the last two winnings.
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: Just terrible. So I'm not sure it sets up a
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: great spot for Kansas City here. So I worry about
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: the spot for Kansas City, even though I actually think
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: the pitching matchup actually favors Kansas City in this game.
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's two pitchers that really are not guys
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: that you necessarily want to put your money on. And
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: with Kansas City's bullpend getting rocked last night and the
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: mets Bullpend's still being pretty overworked right now, I kind
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: of don't like the Boltpenz in this game, either, so
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: you might it might be worth looking towards an over
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: again here. One thing I forgot to mention on the
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: show yesterday with the over in this game yesterday was
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: the total was also high, even though it's a pitcher
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: friendly park, usually at Kaufin Stadium in Kansas City. But
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: when the totals high like this, it also usually indicates
• 47:58
  Speaker 1: the wind is blowing out, which was the case in
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: yesterday's game, and it might be the case again today.
• 48:03
  Speaker 1: But these pitchers aren't very good either. Man I monta
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: suspicion for the Mets. He's only made like three starts.
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: I think this season. He's coming back from injury and
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: he hasn't been very effective so far at all. Six
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: point one forty era one point three whip that's not
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: gonna get the job done. Really bad on the road
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: so far. Thirteen point five rail that was only one star,
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: but it was against Pittsburgh who are a really bad offense,
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: so I think that doesn't look good. He's allowed four
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: home runs over his last two starts, only going at
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: five to two thirds at most in the two starts.
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: Giving up ten runs over that span, that's not a
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: great sign. Even though he only walked one guy, so
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: his strike a walk ratio is fine. Here but he's
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: getting hard hit he's giving up a lot of home runs,
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: a lot of walks. That's not good. His numbers against
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: the Royals are okay. In twenty five at bats, a
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: lot of their hitters haven't even seen him two forty average,
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: seven h nine ops. Perez does have a home run often,
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: but other than that six to one strike a walk
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: ratio in numbers for Montas So maybe he won't do
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: as bad here, but I don't think you can bank
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: on him because he's just in terrible form right now,
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: up against Michael Lorenzen, who's not having a good season either.
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: For KC four point six' ONE, era one point THREE
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: wip not, good but he's been significantly better at home
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: three point seventy nine HOME, era and he's actually been
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: pretty good in two starts this. Month he's rounding it
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: to form a little bit twelve to one strike a
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: walk ratio over the last two. Starts and the most
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: impressive thing was he just shut Out arizona on the
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: road for seven, innings and that is not an easy
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: thing to. Do ALTHOUGH i think he did have good
• 49:35
  Speaker 1: matchup numbers specifically Against arizona for some, reason but that's
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: a good lineup in a very hitter friendly, park and
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: he had a two hit shutout for seven innings with
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: a seven to one strike a walk, Ratio so kind
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: of a sign That lorenzen is pitching a little bit
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: better right. Now and even though The mets offense is,
• 49:50
  Speaker 1: Good lorenzen actually has done well against them in the.
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: Past it's sixty four at bats one fifty six average
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: allowed four to ninety four oh, ps so his matchup
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: numbers are. Good SO i could see some reasons to
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: lean To Kansas city based on the starting pitching, matchup
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: BUT i really don't love the bullpen situation here for
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: either team metal. Them The mets bullpen is more overworked
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: Than Kansas city's, is BUT i don't love The Kansas
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: city lost that wind streak yesterday in really crippling fashion,
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: Yesterday SO i don't love the like mental state That
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: Kansas city might be in. Here but the money is
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: agreeing with the matchup, stuff and With Kansas city, Here
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: mets down for minus one thirty mins one to twenty,
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: two and it's really, like did The mets deserve to
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: be a road favorite With montas? Pitching probably they. Don't
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: uh sixty five per tickets on, them fifty percent of
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: the cash coming in On Kansas. City so the best
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: market read on this is actually towards The Kansas city.
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: SIDE i would still agree with that. GENERALLY i just
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: worry about the situation more than anything. Else if we
• 50:48
  Speaker 1: want to Go Kansas, city either full game or first five,
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: INNINGS i think it's probably. Okay BUT i don't, Know,
• 50:53
  Speaker 1: MAN a lot in a lot and uh sodom you mean,
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: RIGHT i don't know what you're talking. About, Oh I'm
• 51:02
  Speaker 1: i'm lot in living In. SODOM i guess is what
• 51:05
  Speaker 1: you're saying something like. That, Yeah, nancy what's? Up thanks
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: for hanging. Out santana probably can't do him, justice, man
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: because he's mostly a really really excellent guitar. Player so,
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: like how does that translate to the yuke WHEN i
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: can't do any of the fingering? Stuff, MAN i THINK
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: i gotta Leave santana, alone unless MAYBE i could try
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: to do Like, smooth the song that he did With Rob.
• 51:27
  Speaker 1: THOMAS i don't, KNOW i don't know what that would look.
• 51:29
  Speaker 1: Like But washington At Milwaukee milwaukee, one eight to three.
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: Yesterday milwaukee's on a nice hot, streak winning a bunch
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: of games in a. ROW i thought they were gonna
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: suffer a letdown after sweeping The. Dodgers that that has not,
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: happened AND i think this still sets up well For
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: milwaukee again here, MAN i, mean both bullpens are, untrustworthy
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: But washington has the worst of the two, bullpens and
• 51:51
  Speaker 1: they're the only team that used their bullpen, yesterday as
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: The brewers Had preest listed as a starter, yesterday he
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: actually came in in relief Of Dl. Hall and those
• 51:59
  Speaker 1: are the oly the two pitchers that got used for
• 52:01
  Speaker 1: The brewers. Yesterday so The brewers bullpen is almost entirely,
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: intact And washington's already really bad bullpen that's the worst
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: of the two already got used up more. Yesterday so
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: already the bullpen situations in favor Of. Milwaukee milwaukee already
• 52:15
  Speaker 1: has the better, offense AND i think they have a
• 52:17
  Speaker 1: big pitching edge here. Too washington Is Shinosuke Oga sawara.
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: Pitching he's making only his second major league start, ever
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: and his first start wasn't good against The Red. Sox
• 52:28
  Speaker 1: he got rocked and two and two. Thirds he gave
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: up seven, hits four and runs a home. Run did
• 52:33
  Speaker 1: have two strikeouts and no, walks but he was very.
• 52:36
  Speaker 1: Ineffective he got, Blasted so even though he is a young,
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: pitcher it hasn't been seen before by these opposing. Hitters
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: he does have kind of a funky delivery and he
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: does throw a lot of weird off speed, stuff which
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: you can kind of keep some hitters off. Balance BUT
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: i don't know that he's gonna do that well here.
• 52:51
  Speaker 1: MAN i mean that first start is really not a good.
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: Indicator And milwaukee is a good, offense even though they're
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: better on the road, typically But milwaukee's offense has been
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: hot recently, too SO i don't expect much out Of Oga.
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: Salwara and if he's out of the game, early watching
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: his bullpend coming in looks pretty bad as. Well and
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: he's gonna have to go up Against Brandon. Woodruff AS i,
• 53:10
  Speaker 1: mentioned he's only made one start so far this. Season
• 53:13
  Speaker 1: AS i, mentioned he was coming back from an injury
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: WHERE i think he's been out Of major league baseball
• 53:18
  Speaker 1: for two. Years he's only been On, MILWAUKEE i, believe
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: his entire, career and he actually had really good numbers
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: throughout his, career and then, EVERYBODY i think forgot about.
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: Him he was kind of this. Guy he's not really
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: a big. Name his numbers have been really good throughout his.
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: Career then he got sidelined by this, injury and it was, like,
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: well how is he gonna bounce back from that? Injury,
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: well how about a six, inning two, hit one run
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: performance with eight strikeouts and no walks Against. MIAMI i
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: know It's miami and they're a bad, offense but he Dominated,
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: Man so that is a good sign that his command
• 53:48
  Speaker 1: was totally. There if he had eight strikeouts and no,
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: walks he gave up a home, run but he barely
• 53:54
  Speaker 1: gave up anything else at. All So woodruff looks like
• 53:57
  Speaker 1: he's already right back in good form. Here. Man his
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: numbers Against washington in his career are. Good sixty eight at,
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: bats nineteen to three strike a walk, ratio has a
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: lot of four home, runs which is a little bit,
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: questionable but he's held into a one to ninety one,
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: average still pretty low six twenty two. Ops SO i
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: Think woodrooff also has a big time edge in this.
• 54:16
  Speaker 1: Game so given THAT i think there's a big starting
• 54:18
  Speaker 1: pitching edge and a big boatpen edge, HERE i would
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: be looking At milwaukee on there on the run line, here,
• 54:24
  Speaker 1: Man but it's gonna be a very expensive thing to
• 54:26
  Speaker 1: do with the rotro minus two forty to minus two
• 54:28
  Speaker 1: fifty four. Here money coming Into, milwaukee AND i think
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: for good, reason they have the way better offense to
• 54:33
  Speaker 1: just they have every advantage in this. Game eighty six
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: cent of the, tickets ninety six percent of. Cash it's just, iffy.
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: MAN i, MEAN i just think THERE'S i wouldn't really
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: want to go Under washington's team. TOTALLY i Think woodroff
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: will probably come in and pitch well against. HIM i
• 54:48
  Speaker 1: DON'T i still don't think you can totally Trust milwaukee's
• 54:51
  Speaker 1: boatmend to completely hold them. Under sid still be looking
• 54:54
  Speaker 1: For milwaukee to win by like a run total. Here but,
• 54:58
  Speaker 1: again when they're already winning the game and you don't
• 55:01
  Speaker 1: get the final at bat in the ninth, inning it
• 55:03
  Speaker 1: becomes a little bit, iffy especially if you have to
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: go over two and a half runs or two runs
• 55:07
  Speaker 1: instead of one and a. HALF i don't. KNOW i
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: don't know what the price would be laying the minus
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: one and a, half but still that's probably the best
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: way to play it. Is still looking at A milwaukee
• 55:15
  Speaker 1: run line of some, Kind, Yeah santana again. THERE i
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: THINK i already brought that comment. Up all, Right texas
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: at wash or At, houston excuse, me big divisional battle,
• 55:25
  Speaker 1: Here houston still leaving the. Division texas is still in
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: the fight. Here texas did win. Yesterday houston has now
• 55:32
  Speaker 1: lost four in a, row AND i Thought houston kind
• 55:34
  Speaker 1: of was in a bounce back spot. Yesterday BUT i
• 55:36
  Speaker 1: mentioned McCullers has just been really bad at. HOME i
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: thought the pitching matchup actually did Favorite texas, yesterday and it.
• 55:43
  Speaker 1: Happened even Though lighter wasn't really that good, either he
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: still outpitched, McCullers got deeper into the, game And texas
• 55:49
  Speaker 1: got the win. Yesterday So houston is kind of in
• 55:53
  Speaker 1: a bounce back spot. Here but what we're looking at
• 55:56
  Speaker 1: is a real pitching match up, here, Man AND i
• 55:59
  Speaker 1: like the un during this. Game the problem, IS i
• 56:02
  Speaker 1: didn't see any number out there that was even at.
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: SEVEN i just saw six and a half across the,
• 56:06
  Speaker 1: Board and you know, me seven is a very key
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: number in, baseball AND i just don't really ever go
• 56:10
  Speaker 1: under the six and a. HALF i think this is
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: gonna be an under game in a very low scoring.
• 56:14
  Speaker 1: GAME i worry a little bit about the bullpens because
• 56:17
  Speaker 1: we did see some. Bullpend you suggest that even though
• 56:19
  Speaker 1: both bullpens are generally pretty, Good texas offense isn't that.
• 56:23
  Speaker 1: Good houston's offense is, Okay so we don't have like
• 56:27
  Speaker 1: offenses that really tear the cover off the ball here.
• 56:29
  Speaker 1: Either yesterday's game went over that's otal as, well which
• 56:32
  Speaker 1: is probably gonna kind of make people want to go
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: more towards an over. Here but, again if you find
• 56:37
  Speaker 1: an under, SEVEN i MEAN i maybe you want to do,
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: it BUT i can't go under six and a. Half.
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: MAN i would probably pay up to about minus one
• 56:43
  Speaker 1: twenty to get it at under. Seven BUT i didn't
• 56:45
  Speaker 1: see that out there at. All everything was six and a.
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: Half and it's just too, dicey, man because again the
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: seventh run is what breaks the three to three. Tie
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: BUT i think this is going to be a pitching. Duel,
• 56:55
  Speaker 1: basically both team's best pitchers are on the hill or,
• 56:58
  Speaker 1: well For houston it's actually their sex best. Pitchers they
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: just have so many good. Pitchers For, texas we GOT
• 57:05
  Speaker 1: i would say they're ace on them on. Here jacob
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: De grom is just continuing his amazing career this, season
• 57:11
  Speaker 1: in his late, thirties he's still pretty much dominating two
• 57:14
  Speaker 1: point two to NINETY ra point nine to ONE whip
• 57:16
  Speaker 1: on the. Season he's been a little bit worse on
• 57:18
  Speaker 1: the road two point seven to TWO, era which is
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: still quite. Good a little bit worse this month, though
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: with a four point h NINETY ra and two, starts
• 57:25
  Speaker 1: but still an eleven of three strikeout walk. RATIO i,
• 57:29
  Speaker 1: mean he still hasn't allowed more than three ear runs
• 57:31
  Speaker 1: in any start going all the way back to his
• 57:33
  Speaker 1: second start of the entire, season so he is still
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: pitching really, well and he has good numbers Against houston
• 57:39
  Speaker 1: and forty one at, bats nine, strikeouts no. Walks Only
• 57:43
  Speaker 1: caratini does damage often for whatever. REASON i don't even
• 57:46
  Speaker 1: really know who he, is but he's six for seventeen
• 57:48
  Speaker 1: of two of them. Runs but other than, that, uh
• 57:51
  Speaker 1: De grom overall is held to a one to seventy
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: one average of five to twelve ops. Overall That's houston's
• 57:57
  Speaker 1: bats against De, Grom SO i think De grom is
• 57:59
  Speaker 1: in line for or another good start he's up against
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: From brevaldez For, houston even THOUGH i Think Hunter brown
• 58:04
  Speaker 1: is obviously their best starter From bervaldez could be an
• 58:07
  Speaker 1: ace on most other pitching Staffsman So houston starting pitching
• 58:10
  Speaker 1: rotation pretty, good And valdez is certainly part of that
• 58:14
  Speaker 1: two point NINETY ra one point one to five. Whip
• 58:17
  Speaker 1: he's been excellent at home one point eight three home THE.
• 58:20
  Speaker 1: Ra pitching really well recently, too allowing no more and
• 58:23
  Speaker 1: than touring runs going all the way back to Mid,
• 58:26
  Speaker 1: may which was hilariously a start Against. Texas re allowed
• 58:29
  Speaker 1: three on, runs but he still went seven innings eight to.
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: One strike a walk ratio There houston is. ONE i
• 58:35
  Speaker 1: believe what is this eleven straight starts of His houston is.
• 58:38
  Speaker 1: WON i, mean that's a crazy streak to be. On
• 58:41
  Speaker 1: valdez is walking too many. Guys he has walked seventeen
• 58:44
  Speaker 1: guys in his starts going back to the start Of,
• 58:48
  Speaker 1: june although he does have a ton of strikeouts over
• 58:50
  Speaker 1: that span forty two, strikeouts so his strikeout rate is really.
• 58:53
  Speaker 1: High his walk rate is two high as, well but
• 58:55
  Speaker 1: he's not allowing that many. Hits he did allow two
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: on runs last, time but it was against The dogs
• 59:00
  Speaker 1: on the. ROAD i mean that's a good. Offense still
• 59:02
  Speaker 1: pitched pretty well went six, innings seven, strikeouts two, walks
• 59:05
  Speaker 1: four and. Runs not a horrible, start giving the fact
• 59:08
  Speaker 1: that he was up against that great. Offense that was
• 59:10
  Speaker 1: actually my. Apologies that was actually the one other start
• 59:13
  Speaker 1: this entire year where he gave up more than three earned.
• 59:15
  Speaker 1: RUNS i don't think he's in bad form, though or
• 59:18
  Speaker 1: anything like. THAT i, mean he was pitching so well before.
• 59:20
  Speaker 1: That hedn't allowed any home runs going all the way
• 59:22
  Speaker 1: back to Late. May he just doesn't allow a lot
• 59:25
  Speaker 1: of hard hits, typically so he's. Good he's facing he's
• 59:28
  Speaker 1: stepping down in class again from The dodgers to face
• 59:31
  Speaker 1: a weak offense, here and they have a lot of
• 59:34
  Speaker 1: familiarity with him one hundred and ninety six at, bats
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: and they still have not done a whole lot against.
• 59:38
  Speaker 1: Him fifty three to seventeen strike a walk race yet
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: with kind of a lot of walks again but still
• 59:42
  Speaker 1: two fourteen to average six thirty four. Ohps faldez has
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: done well against. Him so, AGAIN i think the under
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: is what you're looking at in this. Game he has
• 59:51
  Speaker 1: sixty sven percent of, tickets sixty one percent of cash
• 59:53
  Speaker 1: on the over total has gone up a little bit,
• 59:56
  Speaker 1: actually from six to six and a. Half six is
• 59:59
  Speaker 1: a ridicul ulus, number. MAN i, mean you could go
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 1: first five innings, under but you're gonna be looking at
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 1: about a three on, that which is a very risky
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 1: thing to do as. Well BUT i do think the
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 1: pitching is gonna be good in this, game SO i
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 1: still lean towards an under some. Way if this number
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 1: does creep up to, SEVEN i think you could kind
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 1: of go with an under in this game, maybe But
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 1: i'm not gonna recommend it as a play. Here, yes
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 1: a pitching battle is WHAT i. Think philadelphia At San.
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 1: Diego San diego got the win, yesterday surprisingly BECAUSE i
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 1: Thought suarez had a big edge For philly yesterday over Berge,
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 1: air And San diego has been using a lot of their,
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 1: bullpen and they used again a lot of their bullpen last.
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 1: Night they had to use some of the better relievers
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 1: to finish the game off a close win For San diego.
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 1: Yesterday so even Though philly generally has a worse bullpen
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 1: Than San diego, DOES i don't Think San diego's bullpen
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 1: is in good shape, here AND i think you're probably
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: looking at a situation where San diego's bullpen is coming
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 1: into this game, first in this game Because philadelphia has
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 1: their ace on the. Mound Zach wheeler two point one
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 1: seventy are a point eight four. Whip he's been dominating the.
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 1: Season even though he's in his mid, thirties he's still
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 1: JUST i, mean he's just excellent. Overall a little bit
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 1: worse on the road two point five two, era but
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 1: it's still really. Good he's in a pitcher front of
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 1: the park. Here, yeah he's coming off a complete game Against.
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati threw one hundred and eight, pitches which is kind
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 1: of a, lot BUT i mean he throws like he
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 1: throws over one hundred pitches quite, often so that's not
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 1: anything atypical for. Him SO i don't know he's gonna
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 1: be in like a huge letdown spot or anything like.
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 1: That he did just Face San, diego So San diego
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: is recently familiar with, him but he absolutely destroyed. Them
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 1: he shut them out for eight. Innings so over his
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 1: last two starts he's gone seventeen, innings lining only seventy
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 1: it's wan to, run no walks and twenty two. Strikeouts
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 1: absolute domination From. WHEELER i, MEAN i don't expect him
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 1: to do this again against San. Diego BUT i think
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 1: he's gonna still be good Against San diego and his
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 1: numbers in his career in a huge one hundred and
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 1: twenty one at bat sample, size he's Dominated San diego
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 1: twenty eight to Two Streggo walker Race yo one seventy
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 1: four batting. Avers you almost never see numbers this long
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 1: and a huge sample size like that four twenty seven.
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 1: Ops so even Though San diego just saw, HIM i
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 1: still don't expect who to do that bad. Here and
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 1: he's up against You, darvis who just came back making
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 1: his return from. Injury he had to face a pretty
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: good Lineup, arizona But philly is also a good, lineup
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 1: And darvish didn't do well in the. Game three and two,
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 1: thirds three, hits two, runs not, terrible but five strikeouts pretty,
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 1: good but three. Walks he was a little bit all
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 1: over the. PLACE i, mean he's he's gonna improve off of. That, yeah,
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 1: probably he'll probably get a little bit. Better it may
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 1: not be Against philly though in it's only a second.
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 1: Start he does have good numbers Against philly in the, past,
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 1: though one hundred and fifty four at bats thirty eight
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 1: to Seven Strego walker, race you're two twenty one average
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 1: six to ninety four. Ops so if you like the matchup,
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 1: numbers then you think with that game under his, belt
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 1: he's gonna actually improve and bitch better, here maybe you
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 1: do want to go under in this, game of, THOUGH
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 1: i would limit it to first five. Innings the money
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 1: is coming on the. Under it's it's seven and a
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 1: half with juice on the, under fifty per, tickets ninety
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 1: one percent cash on the. Under at least a seven
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 1: and a half is a playable. Number but With phillies
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 1: not being that good And San diego's will be very
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 1: overworked right, NOW i just don't trust it that, much,
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 1: Man SO i think if you're looking at the under
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 1: first five, innings but then again three three and a
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 1: half for that number again is a little bit dicey as,
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 1: Well SO i just don't love. It philadelphia has seen
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 1: some money come in on them up for minus one
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 1: thirty to minus one fifty, five Expecting wheeler probably will
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 1: Outpitch darvish and outlast him in this. GAME i would
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 1: not disagree with. That ninety one percent, tickets ninety five
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 1: percent of cash coming in On, philly AND i think
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 1: if we get to the bullpen situation like. That phillies
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 1: does have more rest at, least SO i do slightly
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 1: lean To philly, either BUT i don't think you can
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 1: lay a price like that with them on the. Road,
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 1: Uh darvish maybe should do better in this. GAME i
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 1: think the pitching matchup could be okay for an under,
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 1: there but we will See arizona At. Anaheim of, course
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 1: we're still dealing with two really bad bullpens in this,
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 1: series which is WHAT i said yesterday as far as
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 1: the over was. CONCERNED i don't love the over as
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: much in this game. Though even though the bullpens are
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 1: both really, bad the starting pitching not as bad as
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 1: it was. Yesterday Zach gallon For, ARIZONA i know he
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 1: hasn't been good this. Season five point one FIVE, rora
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 1: one point three to five whip not. Good he's been
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 1: better on the, road, though way from a hitter Friendly
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 1: Chase field there four point six to FOUR era home
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 1: runs are still an, issue though he's allowed twenty home
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 1: runs over the course of the. Season but he's actually
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 1: been good this month with a point six p NINETY
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: ra thirteen innings across two, starts both wins for his
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 1: team only line ten, hits one ear in run over
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 1: that whole. Span one home, run but whatever nineteen to
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 1: one strike a walk race year is. Crazy so his
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 1: command has actually definitely been there over his last two.
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 1: Starts so he has actually pitched a lot better in
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 1: those last two. Starts his career numbers would suggest that
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 1: he should get a little bit better than what his
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 1: numbers have been so far this. Season he has good
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 1: numbers Against anaheim as, well sixty one at, bats twenty
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 1: two to, four strike a walk ratio one nine tinety
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 1: seven average five forty one oh, ps SO i think
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 1: he will actually probably pitch. Well he's in good form right,
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 1: now has good matchup numbers Against. Anaheim he's going up Against,
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 1: kokuchi who's been fairly good this year with a three
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 1: point oh TWO era al those one point three to
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 1: eight whip still concerns. Me man he walks too many.
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 1: Guys but he's been really good at home one point
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 1: six' NINE. Home era he's always better, at home although
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 1: in his last start at home he wasn't that good
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 1: Against the. Texas offense that isn't. That good he only
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 1: went five innings, a lot four, earned runs two walk
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 1: six hits. Four strikeouts that's not. That great he went
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 1: on a run a few starts, prior to Like, in
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 1: june basically his last few Starts, in june he was
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 1: really getting a lot of strikeouts and his walk numbers had.
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 1: Gone down but Now, in july over, two starts he's allowed,
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 1: six runs ten and two thirds innings on, twelve hits.
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 1: Four walks. Eleven strikeouts, is good but his walk issues
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 1: seemingly are coming back a. Little BIT so i don't
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 1: know that We trust kakuchi in his. Current form his
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 1: Numbers against arizona are pretty, good though seventy four, at
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 1: bats eighteen to four strike a walk ratio two forty
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 1: three average six thirty. Three ohps so maybe because he
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 1: is still good, at home he hasn't been horrific in
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 1: those last couple. Of starts you're probably looking maybe at
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 1: an under in the first five innings in, this game
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 1: and the totals all the way up from eight and
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 1: a half to nine here seventy nine percent of tickets
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 1: only seventy one percent of cash on, the, over though
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 1: so maybe something money is coming back on the under in.
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 1: THIS one i think under in the first five, innings
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 1: though because you don't want anything to do with. The
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 1: bullpend so both starting pitchers might do okay in. This
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 1: game first five inning under could be the way to.
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 1: Look here money is also coming In an anaheim for,
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 1: some reason up for minus one oh nine to minus one,
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 1: to sixteen fifty six percent of the cash, on them
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 1: but eighty one percent of Tickets. On arizona arizona continuing
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 1: to be the, Public team anaheim still continues To. Overperform
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 1: man they have a better RECORD than i think. THEY
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 1: should i still think they're gonna regress big time at
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 1: some point because they're run differential is still. Really bad
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 1: it still hasn't totally happened, Yet THOUGH but i don't
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 1: really agree With the. Anaheim SIDE but I think gallon
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 1: he's the one of the pitchers who's in better form
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 1: right now and probably the less liable one to walk
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 1: a bunch, of guys and he has the somewhat better
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 1: matchup numbers. As WELL so i don't really agree With
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 1: the anaheim, side EITHER and i don't like their. Bullpen
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 1: either so Ridiculous, six yeah and we'll finish. It, off
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 1: yeah with that number of six on a, total there.
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 1: That's crazy toronto And the a's to finish. This off
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 1: toronto did get the, win yesterday that was a close
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 1: seven to. Six win schuzer did pretty well in. The
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 1: game the bullpen's not quite. As well severnno kind of
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 1: got knocked around a little bit in the game. AS
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 1: well i think we had a bunch of unearned Runs
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 1: for toronto come into this game. As Well the a's
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 1: saved their bullpen By using beto in relief a lot of,
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 1: the time But the a's bullpen is still, really bad
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 1: so you even With the a's, BULLPEND rested i don't
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 1: think you can bank. On Them although toronto used a
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 1: lot of their relief, staff yesterday some of their better,
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 1: Relief Pitchers so, toronto's bullpen even though it's the much
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 1: better of the, Two bullpens toronto's bullpen's a little bit
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 1: overworked coming into, this game so might be looking towards
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 1: an over in. This, game goussman Especially, for toronto good
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 1: numbers on the season pretty much in four point ONE
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 1: three era a little. Bit high one point one to
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 1: five whip is. Pretty good he does allow a lot
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 1: of hard, contact though which is kind of. A problem
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 1: been decent on the road three point nine to eighty
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 1: r IN the rud he hasn't allowed that many home
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 1: runs thirteen over the course of. The season he really
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 1: hasn't been. That bad but he's been struggling a bit
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 1: over the last, month plus Even though toronto has actually
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 1: won his last, three starts and they've won what is
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 1: this a lot of his. Recent starts they won seven
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 1: of his last, Nine starts but in the Month of
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 1: june he struggled with a twenty nine to thirteen strike
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 1: a walk raciers is way too many walks five point
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 1: four to six era wasn't very good and the walks
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 1: are continuing to be. A problem and two starts this
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 1: month twelve to seven strike a. WALK ratio i don't
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 1: know if we Trust, gausman man even though he allowed
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 1: only four e runs over that spam against A good
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 1: yankee lineup in one of those starts, as well but
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 1: in the, other one but still that is too, many Walksmen.
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 1: So goussman he's not in the greatest form, right now
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 1: walking too, many guys and he has struggled Against this
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 1: a's lineup in the past forty nine at bats three
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 1: zero six average seven to forty six oh Ps so
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 1: gousman's numbers aren't really. That good he's going Up Against,
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 1: jacob lopez who's been very difficult to predict four point
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 1: TWO six era one point three to. Four whip he's
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 1: actually been better at home in, this stadium even though
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 1: he's a lot a couple more home runs in. This
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 1: Stadium is era is way better three point six, to
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 1: two even though this is a very hit or. Friendly
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 1: stadium he kind of bounced back, last out even an
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 1: eight to one strike a walk ratio Against, s francisco
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 1: but he allowed four earned runs in four and a,
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 1: third inning so he did give up some. Hard hits
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 1: so lopez strego walk ratio was good in, that start
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 1: but the previous start he only lasted three and a
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 1: third and only had one strikeout and one walk and
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 1: give up three on Runs. Against tampa so he was
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 1: on a hot run where he struck out a lot
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 1: of guys over like a pretty. Quick span he was
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 1: getting a lot of strikeouts his last. Two starts he
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 1: hasn't lasted in, the game though he hasn't been, that
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 1: Good so i'm not ready to say he's back, in
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 1: form even though his strikeout rate was really good in the,
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 1: last outing so maybe he will come back a little
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 1: bit and will be. Bouncing back but his Numbers, against
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 1: toronto it's a small samples as, a sixteen but these are.
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 1: Awful numbers he's a lot of five sixty two average.
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 1: To Them vlad Guerrero And ernie Clement or clement Both,
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 1: HAVE clement i Guess Like, matt clement who was a
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 1: pitcher for a while In the majors On My red
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 1: sox at one point, as well but they each have
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 1: a home run off and he's a lot of five
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 1: sixty two average in one thousand and eight to sixty
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 1: one oh ps one to two strike out walk ratio.
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 1: Not good so that has me going over in, this
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 1: GAME and i don't think either bullpen is very trustworthy
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 1: giving the. Spot here money is disagreeing. With me total
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 1: at ten and, a half obviously very. High total we
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 1: know a lot of hitting happens in this ballpark seventy
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 1: six percent. Of tickets only fifty six percent of the
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 1: cash though on the over in, This game so the
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 1: money is disagreeing and the juice is coming in on the.
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 1: Under here juice, is LOOSE but i see almost only
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 1: reasons to go over in, this, Game man so that's
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 1: the WAY that i. Would look and the market read
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 1: Is saying oakland Or, the A'S which i don't really
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 1: disagree with. That either toronto's down for minus one, fifty
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 1: five minus one thirty five eighty five percent, of tickets
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 1: only fifty four percent of. The cash toronto probably a
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 1: little bit too much of a favorite on. The road
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 1: they are public a lot of reverse, line movements so
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 1: a pretty strong market read On. THE a's i don't
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 1: disagree with that Just because toronto di'd use a lot
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 1: Of their. Voltman yesterday gousman's matchup numbers aren't, very good
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 1: but we just saw the matchup numbers on the, other,
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 1: side man so again doesn't exactly look that great. To
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 1: me so that's the WAY that i look at all. Those.
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 1: Games man that's gonna do it for. Me today thanks
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 1: everybody for. Hanging out the one playoff, given out even
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 1: though we don't even know who's Starting For Atlanta braves
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 1: cardinals over the nine and a half is the One
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 1: play i'm giving out on the. Show today hopefully we
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 1: get a sweep with that and we, get, THERE man
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 1: i give out some. Strong leans at least that almost.
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 1: Made plays thanks for. Hanging out everybody learned to Toad,
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 1: On Twitter, Happy Saturday, happy Weekend everybody Better. Off dead
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 1: you can find me, on YouTube on the audio Platforms
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 1: on instagram right do shorter videos with the same, analysis
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 1: here trying to make it a little bit funnier, and
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 1: Shorter although i'm starting to rant a little bit more on.
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 1: Those two but it's only a couple minutes, per video
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 1: so keeping the add people watching. Me there, Thank, You,
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 1: charles thanks thanks. Everybody, again yeah the AUDIO stuff i do,
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 1: have monetized but nobody's been listening over the last. Few DAYS,
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 1: MY seo i think is pretty bad with the Name Better,
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 1: off DEAD so i don't Know what i'm gonna do.
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 1: About that got to figure. Something out and Covered in
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 1: yuke is my. YUKE channel i am putting up the
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 1: STUFF that i Put on twitter on the yuke channel
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 1: now Covered in yuke, on YouTube which i have to
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 1: get the last couple ONES that i did. Up there
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 1: and people have been finally talking and saying that they
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 1: do Want. My patreon yeah, That's. Right charles The audio
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 1: i'm gonna be, doing that so it's gonna Be for
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 1: patreon supporters. At learned it's owed As my patreon AT
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 1: like i think it's probably the like fifteen dollars level
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 1: and up or something Or whatever i'm, doing there it's
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 1: gonna be you're gonna get the, audio feed which is
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 1: gonna be the Covered in yuke Podcast. On spotify i'm
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 1: gonna Do the i'm gonna put the audio up there
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 1: of All the yuke Covers that, i'm doing even though
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 1: the audio quality is not very Good because i'm just
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 1: doing it on. My phone BUT maybe i could try
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 1: to change that and do more recording with. This MIC
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 1: but i only have one, mic here so we'll see how.
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 1: That works but that's in. The WORKS hopefully i can
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 1: get some of that set up. This weekend actually we,
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 1: will see but that's the answer. To that thanks guys for.
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 1: Hanging out have a good, day today have a. Good weekend.
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 1: In peace