Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 391 - 11/7/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 391 - 11/7/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:01
  54321 All systems Go with Josh Applebaum starts now.
• 0:13
  Hello. And welcome to episode 391.
• 0:18
  Of the All Systems Go sports betting podcast.
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  Powered by rhythm, I'm your. Host Josh.
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  Applebaum What's going on, everyone?
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  Happy Friday, our work week has come to an end, but.
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  We got a lot to catch up on, a lot to talk about.
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  On today's. Podcast because I.
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  Have a three pack. Of sweats for you.
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  Across both college football and college basketball for.
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  Tonight, so of course we got 3 plays.
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  Let's try to go 2IN1 eke out a winning day.
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  I got a side and a total in college football and then I have
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  arguably the biggest college basketball.
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  Game yet on the board it is a. Powerhouse matchup between 2
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  great teams. It's the most.
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  Heavily bet. Game of the night The public
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  doesn't know what. To do.
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  But splits system matches, rhythm, everything is lining up
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  in One Direction. So I'll give you that play here
• 1:09
  with some great system matches on the pod.
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  For today also because it is a Friday, we got unveil and recap
• 1:15
  our final Best bet card. For the weekend.
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  So 3 plays in. College.
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  We're going to go over those once again and then. 4 plays in
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  the NFL, including. A play that I added last night I
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  want to thank. Everyone.
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  Who tuned into the? Rhythm rundown.
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  Because I noticed a green. Star smart signal.
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  Play and it really coincided and fit perfectly with my betting
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  philosophy. It was a game that I didn't
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  really. Focus on too much.
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  But it really. Jumped out to me and I said hey.
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  This is a. Great buy, low sell.
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  High opportunity here so. 3 college games for Saturday 4.
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  Games upcoming for this weekend in the NFL.
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  Three games here for. Tonight and reminder.
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  Pod on the weekends. But you can always get my.
• 1:49
  Analysis from visen.com you can follow.
• 1:52
  Me on Twitter at. Josh under score Insights I'll
• 1:54
  put out. Those sharp reports?
• 1:56
  On Saturday and Sunday morning and reminder.
• 1:58
  You can always get the plays and support the pod by signing up to
• 2:01
  get the official. Best bet picks.
• 2:03
  On the Juice Reel page on the Juice Reel app which will be 4.
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  Dollars and 99. Cents a week, basically less
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  than a dollar a day to tip your podcast host and get these plays
• 2:11
  a little earlier. Now looking back to our last
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  night guys. Disappointing O and two. -2
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  units. I thought we had a good edge
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  there on that over, but the way it's been going recently.
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  In the NFL, man. Hasn't been going our way, so
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  we'll see if we can continue to grind and.
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  Get back on track. But over 42 1/2, it was juiced
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  up. We had a great rhythm edge
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  predicting more like 4546 points, a lot of angles, low
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  totals. Pointing over and then.
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  It was basically A-77 game the entire time, so I couldn't get
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  that over. And also.
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  The Geno Smith. Over that was frustrating.
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  Because yeah, it fell. Short.
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  But got a really good discrepancy play I got.
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  Over two O 8 1/2. At DraftKings it.
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  Closed like 215 1/2 and Geno Smith gets hurt.
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  Had a bunch of big plays that were called back because of
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  penalties which would have boosted that yardage total.
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  So unfortunately, O and 2 -, 2 units on Thursday Night Football
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  and then. I am regretting not making the.
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  Vegas Raiders an official best bet pick because that kind of
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  fit. Pretty much what we look for. 10
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  1/2 down to 9 1/2 even 8. And 1/2 contrarian.
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  Divisional dogs. That was a mistake by me.
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  I know we talked about leaning hard on Vegas, but that should
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  have been an official bet. So maybe I'm just.
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  Overthinking NFLA little bit here too much recently, but
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  we'll get back on track, hopefully steaming into this
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  weekend. So that being said guys, let's
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  waste. No further time.
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  Let's talk about some. College football for tonight,
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  because there's a big. 3 pack of.
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  Big games there's. Also a couple added game extra
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  games, but there's two in particular that caught my eye
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  so. Let's start off with.
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  The first. Of the two 9:00 games.
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  Tulane at Memphis. Now this game.
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  It will be on, I believe, ESPN, yeah, nationally televised.
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  Game here. Tulane comes in six and two.
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  Just had their three-game winning streak though.
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  Come to an end. They lost.
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  To UTSA, they got rolled. 48 to 26, losing outright as a six.
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  Point Rd. Favorite.
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  Meanwhile, Memphis 8 and one ranked 22nd.
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  They've won two straight. Just beat Rice 3814 on
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  Halloween. Easily covered as a. 14 Point
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  Rd. favorite. So what?
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  Do we see? Across the market here, well,
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  this game. Opened Memphis as high as a 6
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  1/2 point home favorite. And the public says Memphis is.
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  The better team, better record, better ranking again, Tulane
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  just. Lost outright.
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  To a bad UTSA team. Memphis.
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  Just rolled and covered. So don't even think about.
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  It lane late with Memphis, right well.
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  That's what the. Public's doing 80% of.
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  Spread bets at DraftKings. Laying it with Memphis.
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  At home, however. Even though you're getting.
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  Such popular support. In favor.
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  Of the Tigers, Memphis has fallen all the way from -6 1/2
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  down to -3 1/2. Now what does that?
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  Tell us big. Sharp reverse line movement
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  Publix on Memphis but. Line is falling to.
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  Tulane tells us a lot of big money is coming.
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  In on Tulane. Now it makes a.
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  Little tricky because. You love the line.
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  Move toward. Tulane but is this?
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  An injury, baseline move that's. What I was kind of thinking to
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  myself because I was reading. Up on the Memphis quarterback
• 4:56
  Brendan. Lewis, I guess.
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  He got hurt, got hurt in the last game.
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  He's questionable for this game. So is that true?
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  Smart money going with Tulane. Is that maybe Lewis?
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  Won't play or he's banged up. Which the line's going to
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  Tulane, but either way, Tulane is still a.
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  Very unpopular play. Which makes them.
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  A great bet against the public play.
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  They're only getting 20% of. Spread bets at DraftKings and a
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  heavily bet 9:00 ESPN game now Tulane. 20% bets but. 39%
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  dollars. At DK at circa 29% bets but 60.
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  5% dollars. We have short Rd. dogs getting.
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  Four or less. Covering 53% of the time doesn't
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  sound great, but you are. Overcoming the 52 point. 38
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  Magic Number Friday night Rd. Dogs. 13 and eight against the
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  spread this. Season 62%.
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  Tulane also has that buy low unranked dog versus sell high
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  ranked. Opponent that system is. 54.
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  Percent ATS this season, so fully admit.
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  That you're making me pick a side.
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  It's Tulane here. I'm going to play the under.
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  Though my play I like this under.
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  We saw the total. Open as high as 55 1/2.
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  It's now down to 45 and a sorry 55 1/2 down to 54 1/2.
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  And some. Books are even getting down to
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  5453 1/2 so it's been pretty clear.
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  That this total is. Dropping again if the.
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  Quarterback is out for Memphis. That's even better toward the
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  under. But I really like the splits.
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  It's a big. Contrarian Play.
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  DraftKings. Has 81% of bets going over.
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  Yet this total has. Fallen.
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  And then if you. Look over at Circa.
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  Only 40. Percent of bets.
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  But we are looking at 90. 7% of dollars.
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  Going under so a. Really big low.
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  Bets higher dollar split. Along with this total.
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  Dropping and I was also reading up on how.
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  Both these teams are not great in.
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  Terms of explosive offense, but they both like to run the ball
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  and that was kind of music to my ears because if they both like
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  to run. The ball.
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  What does that mean? Means chew up the.
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  Clock and hopefully get a lower scoring game here so I.
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  Did play under 54 1/2. Again, shop around some books.
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  Are as low as. 5453 1/2 We do have rhythm predicting a 53.2
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  so. It's a little bit of an.
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  Edge there on the 54 1/2. But there's also a sharp.
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  Mush indicator from our friends at Juice Real.
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  So I am going to play. The under in this game again
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  certainly lean hard on the two lane.
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  Side according to. Rhythm.
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  It should be like a 4.42 lane or a 4.1.
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  So not a huge edge with rhythm. On the two lane.
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  But an edge. Here on the under.
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  Hopefully with a lower scoring game.
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  So I did play 2. Lane under 50. 4 1/2.
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  Now of course you always want to make sure you get the best price
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  here, but you can. Still get let.
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  Me, just go to my college football tab.
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  On my odds page, of course. Shop around, look at all.
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  The current prices you can still.
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  Get under 54 1/2 at -115. That is still available.
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  At Bet MGM. But a lot of.
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  Shops are 53 1/2. 54 so make sure you get the best of it.
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  But this thing is moving down, so I'm going to take a shot on
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  the under 54 1/2 -115. Still available.
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  At Bet MGM. Next one for you, Northwestern,
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  USC 9:00 game here. Tonight we have Northwestern
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  coming in five and three. That a four-game win streak.
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  That just ended. They lost to Nebraska. 28 to 21
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  they pushed as A7. Point Rd.
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  Dog, meanwhile. USC six and two on the year,
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  ranked 20th. They've rotated wins and losses.
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  Over their last four. Games they just beat.
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  Nebraska, though. 21 to 17. That's OK with us.
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  That was a late addition on the pod over the weekend.
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  Nebraska covered the. 4 1/2 at home.
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  So what have we seen across the market here will this?
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  Game open. UFC listed around a 15 point
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  home favorite. And the public not scared off by
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  this. Big number USC is ranked.
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  Again, good. ** Program Northwestern.
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  You think of them as, like us, kind of a lesser school, or
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  maybe just a. Like a mini Iowa I.
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  Always think of them as just. Good defense and.
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  Not a lot of offense, however. Even though you're getting at
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  this. Current time at DraftKings. 64.
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  Percent of spread. Bets in favor of USC.
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  The sign has actually. Fallen USC -15 down to -14 some
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  shops even down to minus. 13 1/2 So if the.
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  Public is on USC. Why is this line?
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  Dropping, making it easier for the public to cover well again
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  tells me smart money here has loaded.
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  Up on Northwestern plus the points.
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  Northwestern is contrarian. Heavily by game.
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  This is. A game on Fox tonight, so it
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  should be. Very heavily bet at every.
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  Bar in America at 9:00 tonight, but also contrarian.
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  Heavily bet. Game only about 1/3 of tickets.
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  But I noticed that circa Northwestern 47% of spread bets
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  71% of spread dollars. So a good low bets, higher
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  dollar split from the sharps. They're out there in Vegas.
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  Unranked dogs versus ranked. Opponents.
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  They're 54% against the spread this season.
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  Listen to this, I mentioned this.
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  With Tulane. Friday night Rd.
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  Dogs. 13 and eight against the spread this year 62%.
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  But if you're a Friday night Rd. dog, getting. 14 points or more.
• 9:45
  There's seven and two. Against the spread this year.
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  So it's been pretty. Good 78.
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  Percent overall. When two teams from the Big 10
• 9:52
  play each other, take the dog. That's 27 and 20 against the
• 9:55
  spread. This season 57%.
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  Little bit of correlative betting, big dog low total total
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  this one is. About 5151 1/2.
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  That's a high NFL total, but it's kind of a low college
• 10:05
  football total. And again, you're getting 2
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  touchdowns, so it's going to be hard for that favorite to cover
• 10:11
  if you're expecting fewer. Points and then also.
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  Big rest first. Tired.
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  Advantage Wildcats of Northwestern.
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  They're coming. Off a bye week, they did not
• 10:19
  play. Last week.
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  So rest, rehab, get ready for. This game.
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  Whereas the Trojans played on the road at.
• 10:24
  Nebraska and then have to come back to the West Coast.
• 10:27
  So that it all up here, guys. I'm taking a shot on
• 10:28
  Northwestern. Again, we've seen these.
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  Big dogs on Friday night do well covering.
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  The number they don't. Always win but.
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  They seem to keep. It relatively close.
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  I did get plus. 14 1/2 at -120 a.
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  Little bit earlier today, I believe that was I think
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  fanatics a lot of books are at. 14 you might still find a 14
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  half that's. Really your best price.
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  Here, but again, some books down to 13.
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  And a half. So the 14 1/2 is what I'm
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  sweating. Here with Northwestern, so
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  Northwestern plus 14. And a half Tulane under 54 1/2.
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  Now biggest college basketball. Game that I've seen so far this
• 11:00
  year. One of the great rivalries.
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  Kansas and North Carolina. That's right, The Jayhawks and
• 11:05
  the Tar Heels. 7:00 tonight. ESPN most heavily.
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  Backed Game of the Night 2. Great.
• 11:10
  Programs 2 ranked teams. Both one and O both had big.
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  Wins in their openers didn't play very good teams.
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  Kansas blew out Green Bay. North Carolina blew out Central
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  Arkansas. But this is what I like about
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  this game. It's the most heavily backed
• 11:24
  game of the night. And the public doesn't know what
• 11:26
  to do if you. Look at the splits.
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  Right now they're. 5050. Right down the middle.
• 11:30
  Now this game open UNC around a one point favorite. 1 1/2.
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  Point favorite Very. Short number in favor of the Tar
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  Heels. Publix down the middle 5050, but
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  yet 67. Percent of spread bets are on or
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  spread dollars, I should say, are on the Tar Heels and the Tar
• 11:46
  Heels have moved up -1 -, 1 1/2 up now to. -2 -. 2 1/2 I see one
• 11:52
  book even touching 3 so. What do we always talk about?
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  5050 bet. Splits talking just about
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  tickets. Raw ticket counts if the tickets
• 11:59
  are right down. The Middle 5050.
• 12:01
  Theoretically, in a vacuum, a line shouldn't move at all.
• 12:04
  Tickets are even. No need for the oddsmakers.
• 12:06
  To bring the number up or down. But 5050 in the line does move.
• 12:10
  Tells us smart money is taking a.
• 12:11
  Position and. It looks like it's on North
• 12:12
  Carolina. With that line moving further in
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  their favor. DraftKings only 50% of tickets,
• 12:18
  nearly 70. Percent of the money.
• 12:20
  Is in their favor. I also noticed that circa 80% of
• 12:23
  tickets are on. UNC.
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  But that accounts for. 90. 6% of dollars on.
• 12:27
  UNC. Salt in Vegas again?
• 12:30
  Don't worry too much about. Contrarian as always mentioned.
• 12:32
  Is DraftKings big public National Book across 40 multiple
• 12:36
  states? Circa, it's more about.
• 12:38
  The bet split to me. Low bets, higher dollars.
• 12:40
  Because again, you're taking from sharp betters out in Vegas.
• 12:44
  So good. Bet split at both DraftKings and
• 12:45
  Circa. Now I'm money lined.
• 12:47
  UNC, I got the. -137 at FanDuel shop around because some books
• 12:52
  as high as -140 - 1. 45. But at DraftKings.
• 12:55
  Only 40% of money line bets. But 56%?
• 12:58
  Of money line dollars. Ken Palm has UNC.
• 13:02
  Winning by. Two, rhythm has UNC -2 point. 7
• 13:05
  So that's why I want a money line just.
• 13:07
  Make sure we win this game, but I do.
• 13:09
  Have a great. System Match 2 ranked teams take
• 13:12
  the home. Favorite.
• 13:13
  Now 2 ranked teams take the home.
• 13:14
  Favorite on the spread it is. 131 and one O 8 against the
• 13:19
  spread 55%. 5% ROI since. 2021. But if you look at. 2 ranked
• 13:26
  teams take the home. Favorite on the money line?
• 13:28
  Just win the damn game. 175 and. 6872% nearly a 6%.
• 13:35
  ROI. So in this spot, especially with
• 13:37
  a low number like if it was if it was 2 ranked teams take.
• 13:40
  The favorite, but the favorite is.
• 13:41
  You know, minus. 7 - 10 And the money line is, you know -500
• 13:45
  then hey, I'm not going to lay the money line, but I'll protect
• 13:48
  myself. It's a short number.
• 13:50
  It could be a close game. Public doesn't know what to do.
• 13:53
  Yet the lines going to UNC and rhythm and.
• 13:57
  Ken Palm Both have. UNC winning by about two or
• 13:59
  three. So I'm going to play UNC
• 14:01
  tonight. I got them on the money line
• 14:03
  -137 we got system matches, splits, good, Ken Palm and
• 14:07
  Rhythm Edge. I'm a big Tar Heels fan.
• 14:09
  Maybe we'll see Bill Belichick and my buddy Michael Lombardi
• 14:12
  courtside tonight, but I did. Play Tar Heels money line.
• 14:15
  When the damn game -137. Now looking.
• 14:19
  Toward the weekend. A big weekend ahead here.
• 14:21
  Guys with college football. Let's just run through.
• 14:23
  Some plays that. We talked about.
• 14:24
  Earlier in the week. But still, still playing.
• 14:27
  Here for for tomorrow. Florida.
• 14:30
  And Kentucky love this. One this one.
• 14:33
  Jumped out to me pretty early in the week.
• 14:35
  Because it. Just looked like a really sharp
• 14:37
  play in. Favor of Kentucky and really
• 14:39
  nothing has changed to get me off of that.
• 14:41
  So I do like Kentucky here. And the points I think the.
• 14:44
  Big thing about Kentucky. Is just that they're very
• 14:48
  unpopular. Like right now you are.
• 14:49
  Getting across the market. 74. Percent of spread bets on
• 14:52
  Florida, but Florida. Opened around -3 1/2.
• 14:56
  A lot of books are down to three, so why is the line moving
• 14:59
  toward? Kentucky if big majority.
• 15:01
  Of public betters. And by the way, it's A7. 30
• 15:03
  game, prime time. Game.
• 15:05
  Are going here with Florida tells me we got.
• 15:07
  Smart money taking the hook. In particular with Kentucky.
• 15:11
  Now I got Kentucky plus. 3 1/2 you got them at -1. 18 you can
• 15:16
  still. Get them with the hook plus 3
• 15:18
  1/2 at -120. That's available.
• 15:20
  Now now at FanDuel and ESPN bet. But again, a lot of books are
• 15:23
  down to three. So Kentucky loses by.
• 15:25
  Three you want to cover. With the hook.
• 15:27
  But a great bet. Split Kentucky only getting.
• 15:30
  In a heavily bet. Primetime game.
• 15:32
  At this point, 26%. Of spread bets, but. 43.
• 15:35
  Percent of spread dollars. You also.
• 15:37
  Look at Kentucky, 59% bets 72. Percent of spread dollars at
• 15:43
  Circa. And you have a.
• 15:45
  Conference dog as well as really.
• 15:47
  The kicker for me? I was looking at the rhythm.
• 15:49
  And I talked about. This on the rundown.
• 15:50
  Last night. But rhythm actually has
• 15:52
  Kentucky. Favored in this game-winning by
• 15:54
  about 3.1 to. 3.3 points. So again, Florida.
• 15:59
  Kind of, you know, fired their coach, got that dead count.
• 16:02
  Dead cat bounce, as people like to call it.
• 16:04
  Maybe that comes back down to earth.
• 16:05
  Kentucky taking the points. Plus 3 1/2.
• 16:08
  With with the Wildcats. Next one for you, let's check
• 16:12
  out Southern Miss and Arkansas. State again.
• 16:16
  Maybe not the most you know. Heavily backed game.
• 16:18
  Most important game? Most popular game.
• 16:20
  But I like this spot. To take the points here with
• 16:22
  Arkansas State, they played. Pretty well I believe they won
• 16:25
  like. Four in a row, but public's all
• 16:27
  over Southern. Miss they're getting.
• 16:28
  Nearly 60% of spread bets across the market, but they.
• 16:31
  Open as high as. -5 1/2 - 6 1/2 They're all the way down to 4
• 16:35
  1/2. So this line's falling toward
• 16:37
  Arkansas State. Even though the public.
• 16:39
  Is on Southern Miss. You look at circa, you know.
• 16:43
  Arkansas State is. Very contrarian here.
• 16:46
  But at circa. Pros really like Arkansas State
• 16:48
  88. Percent bets 94% dollars.
• 16:51
  And then what I really like in in particular is rhythm has. 2
• 16:54
  Green Star plays both on Arkansas State and they have
• 16:57
  Arkansas State plus 2.8 and plus 1.1.
• 17:01
  So we're against the public. The lines moving toward Arkansas
• 17:04
  State. Good bet splits at DraftKings
• 17:06
  and Circa, and Rhythm says it should.
• 17:08
  Be about a 1-2 or three. Point game.
• 17:10
  So I did take the plus 4 1/2 with Arkansas State.
• 17:14
  Next one for you. Nevada and Utah State, this
• 17:17
  one's going. To make you puke in your mouth.
• 17:18
  Because Nevada I believe is 1 and 7.
• 17:20
  They're just. A bad team here.
• 17:22
  But they've actually played pretty well the last two games
• 17:24
  on the road. They've covered double digit
• 17:26
  spreads. And the public wants nothing to
• 17:29
  do with them, because they. Have a terrible record, but
• 17:31
  actually Utah State. Open as high as a 10 1/2.
• 17:33
  Point home favorite. Now they're down to 9 1/2 I
• 17:37
  think some shops. Might have even touched 8 1/2
• 17:39
  earlier this. Week So why is the line moving
• 17:41
  toward Nevada if everyone and their mother is on Utah State?
• 17:45
  Once again. Tells me you got.
• 17:46
  Some smart money here. Going Wolfpack, they're very
• 17:49
  contrarian. Only getting 27.
• 17:51
  Percent of spread. Bets here it's a.
• 17:54
  Late 730 game on Saturday and then in particular.
• 17:59
  Aside from the conference dog and all those angles.
• 18:02
  Rhythm has Nevada +6 or plus 6.7.
• 18:05
  So hopefully an edge there off the 9 1/2.
• 18:07
  So I did take Nevada with the points here.
• 18:11
  Again, it's a big. Number can they lose?
• 18:13
  By 7. Can they lose by 9 or less?
• 18:15
  That's obviously the goal, but I did take +9.
• 18:17
  And 1/2 with. Nevada and again there are a
• 18:19
  couple books at. 8 1/2. So Nevada plus 8 1/2.
• 18:23
  Kentucky Plus 3 1/2. Arkansas State Plus. 4 1/2.
• 18:27
  Now. Over to the NFL board.
• 18:29
  For this weekend, I got an early play for you.
• 18:32
  Saturday. Sunday morning.
• 18:33
  Took the points with the Atlanta.
• 18:35
  Falcons. Plus 6 1/2 Like this move toward
• 18:38
  the Falcons? Indy Open.
• 18:40
  And again, this is your I think it's in Berlin.
• 18:43
  In Germany. This came open Indy. -7 this
• 18:46
  line is not down to 6 1/2 and some books are juice like it.
• 18:49
  May even get down to six so. Why is line moving toward
• 18:51
  Falcons? If majority of tickets.
• 18:53
  Here are going Indy 71. Percent of bets Falcons. 32%
• 18:58
  bets, 51% dollars. At, circa at.
• 19:01
  DraftKings 29%, Bets 41%. Dollars on the Falcons.
• 19:05
  So in both. Spots you have Falcons with a
• 19:07
  low bets higher dollar. Split contrarian in a.
• 19:10
  Heavily bet early game. Coming up on Sunday morning and
• 19:13
  I have three models here, all in the Falcons.
• 19:16
  Falcons +6. .4. Falcons plus 3.7.
• 19:20
  That's a bit of an outlier, and Falcons +6. .7 so.
• 19:24
  Again, my rhythm models are saying take the points.
• 19:27
  That's what I'm doing. I noticed I believe.
• 19:29
  Deforest Buckner was. Ruled out as well.
• 19:32
  So I took Falcons plus 6 1/2. Like that line movement in their
• 19:35
  favor. Next one for you.
• 19:38
  Cleveland Browns. That's right.
• 19:39
  I'm playing the Browns to win a game.
• 19:41
  Maybe I'm an idiot, but Jets traded away their two top guys.
• 19:44
  Quentin Williams, Sauce Gardner. Also what is that?
• 19:47
  You know, send. The type of message in the
• 19:49
  locker room I. Don't know is this.
• 19:50
  A team that's. Ready to quit?
• 19:51
  I'm going to. Go dog to fave with Cleveland.
• 19:53
  The Jets open this game. As a two point.
• 19:55
  Favorite we have now. Flipped to the Cleveland.
• 19:57
  Browns -1 and half minus. 2, even -2 1/2.
• 20:01
  So dog to fave toward Cleveland. 74% bets, 81% dollars on
• 20:06
  Cleveland. At at DraftKings and I got a lot
• 20:10
  of system matches favorites off a loss would match with
• 20:12
  Cleveland. 31 and 16 against the.
• 20:15
  Spread, that is. 66% cover rate. So far this season.
• 20:19
  They're also a favorite off a bye, so rest first tired we're.
• 20:24
  Actually, both teams are. Off a bye, but the favorites off
• 20:26
  a bye do. Much better.
• 20:27
  They're 55% against the spread historically over the big 20
• 20:32
  year sample, so to mitigate. Some risk.
• 20:34
  I went money line here. I got Cleveland around. -130 on
• 20:37
  the money line. And if you.
• 20:39
  Look at the draftking split. On the money line. 70% bets.
• 20:43
  Nearly 80% dollars. So if The Jets.
• 20:45
  After trading away their. Two guys beat me.
• 20:47
  I'll have to just tip my cap but.
• 20:50
  I like I like Cleveland here to get this thing done.
• 20:52
  Dog to fave. Cleveland money line around -130
• 20:56
  Next one for you Pittsburgh LA Chargers give.
• 20:59
  Me the points here. With the Steelers.
• 21:02
  Steelers open this game as high as a. 4 1/2 point Rd. favorite.
• 21:05
  We've not seen this line get. All the way down.
• 21:07
  To plus. Three or even plus 2 1/2.
• 21:10
  So again, you. Missed the hook, but you can
• 21:13
  still get the three. Get that key number you lose by
• 21:15
  three. You want to push instead of lose
• 21:16
  that bet, but this is a play for me.
• 21:19
  With a line move in favor. Of the Steelers. 59% bet 74%.
• 21:24
  Dollars at DraftKings, so good split.
• 21:27
  You also have the Mike Tomlin. Dog Angle.
• 21:29
  He's been great. Two and one ATS this year.
• 21:31
  As a dog. 65% ATS in his career as a dog.
• 21:35
  Prime time dogs. Another angle here matching.
• 21:38
  With the Pittsburgh Steelers. And the other angle is Chargers
• 21:42
  just lost both of their tackles. To injuries.
• 21:44
  Joe Walt and Rashawn Slater. He was hurt earlier in the year,
• 21:47
  but. Pittsburgh's DTJ Watt against
• 21:49
  the team with both. Tackles that are out.
• 21:52
  Like the plus 3 here. So I did take Pittsburgh Plus.
• 21:54
  Three. And we do.
• 21:55
  Have some rhythm models? Where they should be around plus
• 21:58
  2.8. So hopefully Pittsburgh can
• 22:00
  cover this number. And then last play that I added,
• 22:03
  we'll talk about this upcoming here on Monday.
• 22:08
  But I like the Green Bay money line.
• 22:09
  It's a Monday night game. You can get Green Bay around
• 22:11
  -125. What I like here is just a
• 22:14
  straight up contrarian play. As well as a good rhythm match
• 22:17
  because everyone and their. Mother's on Philly.
• 22:19
  Philly. Across the market again.
• 22:20
  How do you not? Take the Eagles.
• 22:22
  Off a bye the. Rest of the ready to go, but
• 22:25
  then. Also, you look at the public
• 22:27
  really not wanting to play the Packers because they just lost
• 22:29
  straight up at home against Carolina.
• 22:32
  So this line did. Move a bit, you know it.
• 22:34
  Was like as high as -3 you're down to like 1 1/2 now at this
• 22:38
  point. So Philly does have the line
• 22:39
  move. But you are in a.
• 22:42
  Spot where you can. Really.
• 22:43
  Fade the public. On prime time Monday night, you
• 22:45
  almost never get a favorite. So unpopular Green Bay Packers.
• 22:48
  Only 23. Percent of spread bets.
• 22:51
  But what really sent me over the edge are some good angles.
• 22:53
  Toward the Packers on the money line.
• 22:56
  Packers money line. Green Star recommended Smart
• 22:59
  signal. Play.
• 23:00
  Basically you have. Rhythm saying it should.
• 23:02
  Be Packers by about. Let's see by about two points
• 23:06
  but this. Is a 70. 6% hit hit rate on the
• 23:09
  Packers money line. So if you give me a green.
• 23:11
  Star recommended smart signal from rhythm to say hey, take the
• 23:14
  Packers money line. It's a short number there also.
• 23:16
  Could be some snow. And bad weather.
• 23:18
  I was reading about that. And you can buy low after they
• 23:20
  lost outright to Carolina. And you can also.
• 23:23
  Fade the public on a. Big Monday night game.
• 23:25
  If I put this in here around -125 Packers to win.
• 23:28
  The damn game. Like this contrarian angle, so
• 23:31
  did play. The pack.
• 23:32
  Go pack, go win the damn game. So that about does.
• 23:35
  It for episode. 391. Of the all systems go sports
• 23:39
  betting podcast powered by rhythm this is the part of the
• 23:41
  pod where we wrap things up and I start first by saying.
• 23:44
  Thank you. Thank you for tuning in, Thank
• 23:46
  you for listening. Thank you for grinding.
• 23:48
  Again, this pod, I'm just lucky enough.
• 23:50
  To host it. But it's really all of us
• 23:52
  putting our heads together each day trying to come up with
• 23:55
  sharp, data-driven plays that that makes me very proud to
• 23:57
  toast this pod. So if you want to help me out,
• 23:59
  give the pod a five star review on Spotify or iTunes, click the
• 24:03
  follow button. Recommended to a friend.
• 24:04
  That'll all be fantastic. Next, if you enjoy the style of
• 24:08
  betting and you want to learn more.
• 24:10
  About data-driven betting, you know what you should do?
• 24:11
  Go to Amazon.com. Type in the NFL.
• 24:14
  Sharp betting playbook. As well as the.
• 24:15
  Everything Guide to sports. Betting my two books that I've
• 24:17
  written. Very proud of both, but if you
• 24:19
  want to pick one. Up or both of them.
• 24:21
  Bring them the sports book. I'll sign them for you, I'll buy
• 24:23
  you a beer and if you want to give one or both of them a 5
• 24:26
  star. Review and a little, little
• 24:27
  comment there on Amazon.com. That would also be fantastic.
• 24:31
  Next, have you downloaded Rhythm and Juice Reel yet?
• 24:33
  My two favorite. Sports betting apps rhythm.
• 24:35
  For their AI backed models and predictions for game bets and
• 24:37
  player props as well as. Juice reel where you can get the
• 24:40
  all systems go best bet. Picks for $4.
• 24:43
  And $0.99 a week. Support your podcast.
• 24:45
  Host tip your podcast host also the Robo Jackson best bet.
• 24:49
  Picks the sharp mush indicators the arbitrage plays.
• 24:51
  All available when you download. Juice reel.
• 24:53
  So download rhythm, download juice reel.
• 24:55
  Give them a five star review in the app.
• 24:56
  Store next. Do you have a live odds page?
• 25:00
  If you don't, you need one. You got to be able to track the
• 25:02
  market. So critical, so important.
• 25:04
  What are the line open at? Where is it?
• 25:05
  Now you know what are. What are the line?
• 25:08
  Moves in between. Pull up the line history, double
• 25:10
  click the box. To pull up the line history for
• 25:12
  any game from any sports book, identify Steam when.
• 25:15
  Teams get lit up in red. You know their odds are moving
• 25:18
  and you can jump on a book that hasn't adjusted.
• 25:20
  And of course getting the best price, so.
• 25:22
  There are a lot of live odds pages out there, but.
• 25:24
  You need to try. Odds logic.
• 25:26
  It's awesome. I think you're going to enjoy
• 25:28
  it. I use it every day. 7 day free
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  trial, 50% off your first month. Just go to.
• 25:32
  Oddslogic.com slash. Josh, 123.
• 25:36
  Next. Have you given Novig a shot?
• 25:38
  Novig is a sports betting exchange.
• 25:40
  Not a sports book, so because you're not.
• 25:42
  Facing the house. They're not.
• 25:44
  Going to crush. You with the juice?
• 25:45
  Or you're going to get better. Juice prices. -1 O 5 - 1 O 8
• 25:48
  plus one O 2 - 1 O3 So you can win at the same rate but make
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  more money because you're laying less.
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  Juice with an exchange. So.
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  If you want to. Download Novig when you fund
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  your. Account put in the promo code
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  Josh. 123 for a. 20 extra 25 bucks. 100% deposit match so
• 26:04
  that about does it for last part of the week here on Friday
• 26:07
  episode. 391 as. Always guys, whether I see.
• 26:10
  You at the Borgata in Atlantic City Twin.
• 26:12
  River in Rhode Island, the brook of New.
• 26:13
  Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan. Sun down in Connecticut, The
• 26:16
  Encore in Boston. Plain Ridge Park Casino.
• 26:18
  MGM, Springfield, The Nash, My neck of the Woods.
• 26:21
  In Nashville, New Hampshire. On the.
• 26:22
  Border of Massachusetts. Out in the desert, where the
• 26:25
  true grinders get down. Or Billy Walters sends.
• 26:26
  His number runners where the lowest juice possible is found
• 26:29
  at the South point. Or sweat.
• 26:30
  And Sharp can train plays. Jumping in the stadium swimming
• 26:33
  pool when you. Catch a big ticket at Circa?
• 26:35
  You're going to walk up to me. Hopefully.
• 26:37
  Hopefully. Don't show me the Gino.
• 26:38
  Over the over game total. Man, I'm kicking myself.
• 26:41
  I should have played Cardinals on Monday.
• 26:44
  I should have played Raiders. I identified it, but I didn't
• 26:47
  play it. I got to pull the trigger.
• 26:49
  But hopefully if you had the Raiders, you show me a Raiders.
• 26:51
  Ticket first one's on me next. One's on you.
• 26:53
  We'll post about the book, so that's some sharp contrarian
• 26:55
  plays all weekend long. So as always guys.
• 26:58
  Coming off an O and two or A2 and OA.
• 27:01
  One in one. A good night, bad night.
• 27:03
  Hot Streak. Cold Streak.
• 27:04
  Winning, losing. Grinding.
• 27:06
  Just got to stick with it. Keep.
• 27:08
  Playing the system matches. Discipline with our bankroll.
• 27:10
  Management if we can find the games that.
• 27:12
  Fit our model against the public with the house with the pros
• 27:15
  Flat bet. Avoid parlays and get that CLV.
• 27:17
  If we can do that, we're. Going to be successful sports
• 27:20
  bettors. So have a great Friday night,
• 27:23
  everybody. Have an even better weekend I'll
• 27:25
  see. You back on Monday.
• 27:26
  For episode 392 of the All Systems.
• 27:29
  Go sports betting podcast. Powered by rhythm.
• 27:32
  Good luck everybody and have a great.
• 27:34
  Great, great weekend.