Latest / International Flavor: Where the Truth Tastes Better / World Cup Sticker Shock, Israel’s Pride Land, and Europe’s Refugee Cracks in the New Multipolar Power Debate

Transcript

World Cup Sticker Shock, Israel’s Pride Land, and Europe’s Refugee Cracks in the New Multipolar Power Debate · International Flavor: Where the Truth Tastes Better

0:00
Hello, good morning.
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Welcome.
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Here we are live at the Lake Ozark
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real estate of the art studio.
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We have, you know, very important news to
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talk about today.
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It appears that we should discuss the biggest
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ever, the biggest ever.
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Now this is important.
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Israel is going to host the biggest ever
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Middle Eastern LGBTQ event.
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Now, if this isn't at the top of
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your to-do list, tell you what, let
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me spell it out for you.
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This is a, the organizers are promoting a
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four-day Pride Land Festival at the Dead
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Sea.
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And it's the, you know, the largest gathering
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of its kind in that region.
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And, uh, let's see the Israel at, at
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Israel file.
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You can follow them on, uh, what is
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that called?
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EECS X.
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Pride rises at the lowest place on earth.
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This June, the Dead Sea becomes Pride Land,
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the biggest LGBTQ plus.
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Oh, I forgot the plus earlier.
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Sorry about that.
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Festival ever in the Middle East for days
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of nonstop celebration of community and connection.
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Oh, Israel celebrates it's LGBTQ plus community now
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bigger than ever.
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So as you can see, Israel is now
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promoting a new festival called Pride Land.
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The event at the Dead Sea is billed
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as a, you know, as I just said,
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performances, parties, exhibitions, and queer culture.
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The official Israel, Israel account on X said
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on Monday, the festival would bring four days
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of nonstop celebration.
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The Jerusalem Post has described it as the
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largest festival kind in the region's history.
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According to the website, Pride Land is scheduled
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for July one through four, 2026 on I'm
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in I'm buck kick on the Dead Sea
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and is being sold as a destination event
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rather than a single parade.
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This isn't just a parade.
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This is an event people organizers roughing hotel
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and ticket packages, including all access wristbands and
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promotion of a central event called Dome X.
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So the website says a program's going to
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include parties, exhibitions, along with family oriented activities
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and child friendly areas.
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The event is being promoted against a mixed
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legal backdrop drop for LGBTQ rights in Israel.
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Same sex marriage is not performed in Israel
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because marriage is handled through religious authorities rather
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than civil law.
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But Israel recognizes same sex marriages that are
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performed abroad.
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The foreign ministry says same sex couples are
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recognized by Israeli courts in areas including adoption
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and family rights makes the country one of
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the most legally permissive jurisdiction for LGBTQ people.
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Where's the plus there's no plus there the
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plus people in the region.
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The label biggest ever, however, appears to be
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promotional rather than objective fact.
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Israel has long marketed Tel Aviv pride is
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one of the region's biggest LGBTQ events.
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That event was canceled during Gaza in 2024,
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as well as in 2025 during the US
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Israeli strikes against Iran.
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But this year, it's gonna be there.
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So get your tickets now, you know, you
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fly over there.
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You'll have all kinds of entertainment, you know,
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family based events to gather all your grandchildren
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head on over to the Dead Sea.
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And, you know, go to the LGBTQ plus
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affair for Israel.
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How would you want to miss that?
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So there you have it.
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That's that's some exciting, some exciting news for
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everyone, don't you think?
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Perhaps not.
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I don't know.
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I suppose you could take it in a
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different fashion.
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If you yesterday I was talking to you
4:44
about.
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And it's pretty funny.
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I don't know.
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Because it wasn't very well documented before.
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But apparently, I've raised an alarm about the
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this panic because of the World Cup.
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And, you know, we do have panic hotel
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prices in Dallas, Miami, Atlanta dropped 30%.
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World Cup host cities usually see room rates
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that are triple.
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But I found out some more things.
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In the meantime, get this game day hotel
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rates across US host cities.
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Kansas City is one of them, by the
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way, have fallen by approximately one third from
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the peak early this year.
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So the hotel rates are headed down everywhere.
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And FIFA had projected 30.5 billion dollars
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in economic output for the US from the
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tournament.
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But that doesn't appear to have showed up.
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It's only two months away.
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And maybe they're just, you know, the sky's
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falling, the sky's falling, and they're trying to
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get everybody to to recognize that, geez, we
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need some money or they're managing expectations.
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I'm not so sure it doesn't appear to
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be a scheduling problem.
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You know, it says that here's what the
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trigger is.
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According to the Financial Times, there's concern about
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ticket prices, concern about border crossing and concern
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about anti US sentiment made worse by the
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war in Iran.
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So on January 1, 2026, the old Trumpster
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expanded visa issuance suspensions to nationals from 39
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countries.
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I didn't realize it was that high.
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I knew about eight or 10 of them,
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but I didn't know it was frigging 39,
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39 countries can't come.
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And four of those Haiti, Iran, Senegal and
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Ivory Coast have teams that qualified and Haiti
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qualified for the first time since 74.
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But fans from an additional 50 countries are
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going to may be required to post a
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bond of 15,000 when they apply for
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the visa.
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So imagine you got a group of four
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kids, what what they were anticipating in Qatar
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was was billions.
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But Qatar is an easy destination and everything
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is there.
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You get a hotel in the city, you
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go to all 10, you know, events.
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Locations right there in Doha, and they built
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stadiums everywhere.
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And so they had plenty of plenty of
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room.
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And I don't remember the numbers from that,
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but I was hoping to go back in
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2022 for that, although I'm not.
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I've been to one game.
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And like I said yesterday, I went to
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a whole bunch of events in Qatar that
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were shown on big screens and they'd have
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these huge event places with enormous TVs on
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these huge screens, you know, and vendors everywhere
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to sell them.
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So it was like a large, I don't
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know, an open, open sort of call.
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See him if you if you don't.
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A lot of people that were there said
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they preferred to go to those things than
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they did to go to the scene because
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you could see better.
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You could see on the screens, you could
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see multiple games and not just one.
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And the alcohol is what one price is
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everything.
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You know, you pay like 80 bucks to
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get in and then all the games are
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there and all your alcohol is covered.
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And for Westerners, these 80 bucks for a
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for a day, an entire day of drinking.
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That's that's a dream in at the lake.
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Who does that happen?
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That doesn't happen.
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You go out, you wonder what the hell
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happened to your credit card later.
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Right.
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But it's like, oh, my God.
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And then you claim you lost it and
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somebody took it.
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Right.
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That's somebody took it.
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That ain't mine.
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Sir, your signatures right here.
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But that was it.
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And then or they get you for the
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10 percent or you forget your credit card
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and you leave it at the at the
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at the bar and then you have to
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go and get a go back.
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Do the walk of shame.
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I left my credit card.
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Yeah.
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Well, it's been a long, long time.
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But here's the scoop.
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This report on the experiences in the architecture
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failure of this whole thing, FIFA itself canceled
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two thousand hotel reservations in Philadelphia out of
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a ten thousand originally blocked for the tournament.
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And they axed 40 percent of its hotel
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blocks in Mexico City.
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And then they did the same in Dallas
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on Arlington in April.
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Arlington, which is a great city, is hosting
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nine matches, the most of any other host.
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So if if the demand in Arlington is
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dropping, that's a problem.
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But more importantly, get this.
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This was shocking to me when you read
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this around trip ticket, a train ticket from
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New York's Penton Station to MetLife Stadium normally
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costs twelve dollars and 90 cents.
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It's 18 miles to get there.
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Guess what?
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They're charging to get a ticket now.
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You want to book in advance a hundred
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and fifty dollars.
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They have more than 10 times the amount.
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And a bus ride is eighty dollars.
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Parking passes at the mall nearby are two
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hundred and twenty five dollars.
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New Jersey Governor Mickey Sherrill blames FIFA for
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this because they refuse to cover an estimated
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forty eight million dollars in transit costs that
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the state is going to face.
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So here's her quote.
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I won't stick New Jersey commuters for that
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tab.
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So and so fans pay instead a a
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an elevenfold markup in transit costs and.
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Wow.
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Talk about talk about price gouging that some
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price gouging and lies.
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I mean, that's not the face of forty
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eight million dollars.
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I mean, where are they getting that estimate?
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And as something sounds, something sounds a little
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screwy like that.
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So.
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Let's see.
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Boston is charging eighty dollars for roundtrip train
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ticket to Gillette Stadium, four times the normal
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twenty dollars a day, a day game fair.
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Meanwhile, L.A. and Philadelphia have pledged to
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keep the transit fares the same in Kansas
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City is running fifteen dollar shuttles.
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So Kansas City's probably got the best idea.
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The inconsistency reinforces the perception of price gouging.
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Of course, it is.
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So get this FIFA's ticket pricing, the cheapest
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first round tickets, first round.
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I mean, this is Jesus.
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I forget how many games there are, but
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it's not a few.
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It's a buttload.
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The cheapest first round tickets are one hundred
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and forty dollars.
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While, you know, the opening match is Paraguay
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in in Los Angeles.
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U.S. is opening against Paraguay and that
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price for a ticket.
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For opening match, two thousand seven hundred and
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thirty five dollars.
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Two thousand seven hundred thirty five dollars for
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an opening match ticket.
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The cheapest ticket for the final at MetLife
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Stadium is listed at four thousand one hundred
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and sixty five dollars, which is up all
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the way up to eight thousand six hundred
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and eighty for the most expensive category.
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So if you're a dude coming from, I
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don't know, pick a place, Paraguay, I mean,
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pick Paraguay, for example.
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Paraguay is a beautiful country.
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Went down there, saw that several years ago.
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Good people, good everything.
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But their their economy.
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It's pretty cheap there, you know, and I
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imagine coming up with let's let's do a
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quick calculation for these poor bastards, right?
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If you want to come to a World
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Cup game, you and a girlfriend, you and
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three friends from college, whatever you and who
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cares what.
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And let's see if you.
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Start off with you're going to go to
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two games.
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Let's let's say there's going to be two
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games that you're going to go to four
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thousand one hundred and sixty five dollars for
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a ticket final.
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And you're going to go to the first
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round ticket at one hundred and forty dollars.
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You want two games, just one hundred and
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forty dollar one and one four thousand one
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hundred eighty five.
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So you got two hundred and eighty four
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for two on the first round shot.
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And then you got basically eighty three hundred
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for the second one.
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So you're basically at nine thousand dollars just
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in tickets.
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Right.
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And that's the cheapest that you can get.
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Then you pay for your airfare.
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Now, I imagine they'll raise at the time.
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But the last time I went down to
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art, I flew into Argentina, not Paraguay.
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And it was it was fantastic trip.
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And, you know, you drive up into Paraguay
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from Buenos Aires and it's a beautiful city,
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too.
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And you drive up there, you get Uruguay,
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Paraguay, the what are the falls called Iguazu
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Falls, like second largest on the planet, like
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instead of Victoria Falls.
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It's a huge, complex, beautiful stuff.
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Anyway, the reverse is what we're talking about.
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We're talking about them come here.
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That trip was nothing.
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You could get the airfare for four hundred
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and eighty dollars or something.
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Four hundred.
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If it wasn't much, you know, you fly
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down there and fly back from Miami.
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And maybe it's because a lot of people
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go there from Miami.
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I don't know.
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But but it was cheap.
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And now call it even double that.
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Now call it a thousand dollars a game.
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Two thousand for that.
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You're already up to nearly eleven thousand.
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Right.
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Fifteen thousand apiece for visa.
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So you come back home.
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There's thirty thousand.
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You're at forty thousand dollars.
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And then that's not including your hotel.
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Even if you stay for three, four days,
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you know, a I mean, a great rate
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in New York.
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Great.
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I stayed in New York.
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It is not pretty.
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And that was years ago.
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The last time I was there and I
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was in a cheap ass place, of course,
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I was downtown, but it was a cheap
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ass place that still cost me almost six
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hundred dollars a night.
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And I think you got four hundred for
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the weekday and six hundred on the weekend
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or something like that.
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And so call it five hundred dollars a
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night.
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And so for four nights, there's another two
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thousand.
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Anyway, by the time you're all done with
16:45
this and you haven't even eaten yet, you
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haven't taken a bite to eat and you
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got to have forty five grand to come
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and see a team play.
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You know, you're far better off flying from
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Paraguay to Qatar.
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You can probably do it for a thousand
17:00
bucks.
17:00
Even if you flew to Dallas, you could
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fly Dallas to Doha for about twelve hundred
17:04
dollars in the summer because nobody wants to
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go there in the summer, in the fall
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and winter.
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But well, because in the summer, it's, you
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know, a hundred degrees.
17:13
You could still fly there.
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But the time of this fly there, fly
17:17
over, there's your two thousand dollars apiece.
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There's no visa issues because you just, you
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know, get in and they check you out
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and then in you go.
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And then you stay in a hotel for
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a hundred bucks a night, you know, three,
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four nights.
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You go out to one of those places
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every single day, get all your alcohol involved
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and everything.
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That entire trip between the two of you
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cost three thousand dollars, maybe less.
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And I haven't traveled internationally.
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Well, I've traveled a lot internationally, but I
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haven't traveled internationally and paid more than, I
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don't know, the typical trip cost me all
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total, all in, maybe thirty five hundred bucks
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for two.
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And the bulk of that is usually airfare.
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You know, if you go, you go somewhere
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and it's usually ten days or so.
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Now, and when I went for six weeks,
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it was nearly five, you know, that I
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spent in there.
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And I also stayed at a sanatorium, which
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but but I mean, think about that.
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Would you if if your option is to
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show the only people are going to go
18:18
to the FIFA events are Americans, you know,
18:22
nobody else.
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And that's not counting any of the politics
18:26
or anything like that.
18:28
But there are plenty of seats still available.
18:30
And according to Sports Illustrated.
18:34
They're going to, you know, say it's, you
18:38
know, it's poorly attended, but it'll be almost
18:41
as poorly attended as a club World Cup
18:43
last summer.
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It's an it's it's not just embarrassing.
18:47
It's economically catastrophic for cities that have invested
18:51
billions expecting FIFA's projected economic windfall and tourism
18:57
and all that stuff.
18:59
So.
19:01
You know, they may still fill it up
19:03
with locals, but.
19:06
America is struggling to fill seats at a
19:10
hosted football event.
19:12
Didn't we steal it from somebody?
19:14
I can't remember that we thought we were
19:17
going to do it.
19:18
The World Cup debacle is, you know, I
19:24
keep an eye on that because if you
19:26
want to know, I mean, it's not like
19:30
I read another article last night that was
19:33
about.
19:37
The average, so the average American in the
19:40
article was called the average American is twice
19:43
as poor as the average European, OK?
19:46
And part of is because of their social,
19:48
you know, their social stuff and what they
19:50
get, they get vacation time.
19:52
You know, they start with six weeks.
19:54
You know, I remember when I worked for
19:55
that German company in Dallas and you'd work
19:59
for those guys and they would come over,
20:02
come to the US.
20:03
I started.
20:03
I started in back then.
20:05
It was a pretty good deal in the
20:06
military.
20:07
I always got 30 days.
20:08
It doesn't change ever.
20:09
You just get 30 days of of leave
20:12
every year.
20:13
And it counts weekends, counts all that other
20:15
stuff.
20:15
So but Europeans get six weeks of vacation
20:19
and.
20:21
It is it's depending on the company, it's
20:25
calculated at the day rate.
20:29
So six weeks is 42 days and doesn't
20:32
even include your weekends.
20:34
So you got almost six weeks of vacation
20:36
before you get started.
20:37
They got holidays all over the place and
20:40
they think differently than we do.
20:43
So if you think about that, that's a
20:44
thing.
20:45
We're starting with two weeks of vacation.
20:47
That's a big deal.
20:48
You're lucky to get one.
20:49
You can't afford to go out of the
20:51
country.
20:51
Number two and or you can, but then
20:56
you're convinced not to.
20:59
And in all truth, we we are an
21:04
extremely expensive country compared to the.
21:09
A lot of the rest of the world.
21:13
Now, Europe, since the start of the euro
21:16
has become far more expensive than it was
21:19
before, used to be able to play around
21:21
with rates going in between countries.
21:25
And you go to Greece and my my
21:28
God, you used to be able to live
21:29
well.
21:30
But now the Europeans that control if the
21:35
country signs up for the euro, Hungary did
21:41
not.
21:41
This is why this is why Orban was
21:44
able to have so much leverage over them.
21:47
And so what they're what they're going to
21:48
try to get the new guy to do.
21:50
And I don't know how I eased off
21:52
into this.
21:52
I was still talking about the World Cup,
21:54
but there are people that the financial part
21:58
of it does matter because your money is
22:02
the reverse of coming here.
22:04
Like I always say, when I go to
22:05
Eastern Europe, it's like it's like getting a
22:08
rather large pay raise.
22:10
Not so if you're if you're in the.
22:15
The euro zone, you spend it's a lot
22:20
of money to spend in in the zones
22:24
that have accepted just the euro because the
22:27
euro controls and the euro doesn't make things
22:30
cheaper at all.
22:32
It makes them twice expensive and they do
22:36
better than the dollar.
22:38
So the euro does anyway.
22:40
And so it's you got to be careful
22:43
of that.
22:44
So if you're coming to the reverse, your
22:46
money is worth less here.
22:48
So you come in from Paraguay, like my
22:51
example was saying, and your money doesn't buy
22:54
anything.
22:55
I talk here about purchase power parity, which
22:58
is the the the PPP, not the one
23:02
where the government gave you millions if you
23:03
had employees, you know, you don't get millions
23:08
for that.
23:09
It's nonsense just based on what your payroll
23:11
was.
23:13
But instead, you're over here.
23:17
You have to pay 40,000 to get
23:19
here in the first place.
23:21
And well, for all the the stuff and
23:24
then that's that's no entertainment, that's no food,
23:27
that's nothing.
23:29
Assuming now the biggest chunk of that 30
23:32
,000 is, you know, the government making it
23:37
out of reach for even the people who
23:39
had the 10,000, you know, if they
23:46
could afford the 10,000 for, you know,
23:49
10,000 is just the price of the
23:51
tickets, you know, and then you got to
23:54
live here when you get here.
23:56
So I don't know how I feel about
23:57
that.
23:58
It's not that I necessarily care.
23:59
It's more of an indicator for me.
24:02
And I just it's a broad pattern, you
24:04
know, that when a country weaponizes immigration enforcement,
24:09
you know, it's which I'm not against it.
24:14
I'm not necessarily for but I'm not against
24:16
it either.
24:17
It'd be I'd like some middle of the
24:18
road approach.
24:19
I'm much more in the in the middle
24:21
of the road realm than not.
24:24
So, you know, that's important.
24:28
Anyway, I think that's enough of the of
24:31
the FIFA discussion.
24:33
I had a couple of more interesting.
24:36
I wanted to play for you a song
24:43
or two.
24:45
Where did it go?
24:47
Where did it go?
24:52
Well, the next after the we're going to
24:54
take a little bit of a music break
24:56
here.
24:56
And after it, we're going to discuss.
25:10
Oh, sorry about that.
25:11
I turned turned down the microphone.
25:14
We're going to to talk about some NATO
25:17
stuff.
25:18
And on the landscape I just saw on
25:19
the TV, by the way, that Tucker Carlson's
25:22
son was working with J.D. Vance's team.
25:29
And because of his father's dispute with Trump,
25:32
whatever that is, they they have opted to
25:37
to stop that.
25:41
And he has left.
25:43
So that's unfortunate for him, I suppose.
25:47
He looks he looks quite a bit like
25:50
like the old Tucker.
25:52
And he it was rather, rather interesting.
25:58
Oh, I also watched Maria Zakharova yesterday, spent
26:01
some time on that.
26:02
I'll give you some interpretations of her discussions
26:07
and how that went.
26:09
And we can go from there.
26:12
And in the meantime, we're going to play
26:14
some some enchanting music.
26:35
I love them by the door.
26:38
I told myself I'm done.
26:43
Still wanting you once more.
26:47
I'm between letting go and holding what we
26:52
have.
26:54
Between moving on and running to the past.
27:01
I'm between letting go.
27:05
Not brave, not afraid.
27:09
Just standing in the space.
27:33
I walk
27:49
the long way home, just to pass your
27:54
street.
27:55
Every step I take feels incomplete.
28:04
I'm between letting go and holding what we
28:09
have.
28:11
Between moving on and running to the past.
28:19
I'm between letting go.
28:22
Not brave, not afraid.
28:24
Just standing in the space.
28:40
Between staying.
29:29
That's actually a lot of the music that
29:31
I listen to when I'm when I'm bicycling.
29:35
I like to get on the trail.
29:39
That's my that's my 30 to 50 miler
29:42
music.
29:43
You get on there and listen to all
29:45
that kind of stuff and talk about relaxing.
29:48
That is some good stuff.
29:50
Maynard, you ever get a chance?
29:52
I think I might even do it this
29:53
weekend.
29:54
I hear the weather's going to be fairly,
29:55
fairly good.
29:58
Of course, it always changes.
30:00
You know, I was told that it rained
30:02
all last Saturday and I just haven't done
30:04
it.
30:04
And well, we're going to move on a
30:08
little bit.
30:09
There's an idea that's been circulating around for
30:13
the last several years, mostly outside of U
30:15
.S. culture, but I've heard it here by
30:18
gifted and talented people.
30:22
But it's becoming harder to ignore.
30:25
And that is the idea that the future
30:28
structure of the world isn't going to be
30:30
decided through international institutions, through bilateral, multilateral
30:36
consensus, but through direct negotiation between a small
30:42
number of dominant powers, not alliances, not coalitions,
30:48
not committees, but individuals representing states that have
30:54
the capacity to shape the outcomes on a
30:57
global scale.
30:59
And within that framework, three names come up
31:02
all the time as very likely candidates that
31:07
if they chose to do something could change
31:10
the world.
31:12
And they really could.
31:14
Those names are Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, and
31:22
depending on the timing, Donald Trump.
31:26
Now, I think that ship may have left,
31:31
I don't know, but it's still worthy of
31:33
considering.
31:33
A lot of people think that what Trump
31:35
is doing, even the lunacy of the Iran
31:40
conflict, the Venezuela thing, that what he's really
31:44
doing is dismantling the deep state.
31:46
That's what is happening.
31:49
The deep state being in large part elites
31:52
between Europe and New York, who have long
31:55
controlled the planet, well, and Hollywood area, San
31:59
Francisco, wherever.
32:00
Pick some coastal towns of the United States
32:04
and discuss that.
32:05
And I'm not saying I disbelieve that, that
32:10
he is trying to tear down the deep
32:11
state.
32:11
I like to think about it, but then
32:13
a lot of me thinks that he's joined
32:16
right in.
32:18
He's just the replacement for the exact same
32:21
thing.
32:22
And maybe he is, I don't know.
32:24
But before dismissing the whole theory, it's worth
32:29
understanding where the idea comes from and why
32:32
it persists.
32:33
This is not something that appeared overnight, particularly
32:39
in Russia and parts of Asia.
32:43
People have been discussing, and analysts too, have
32:46
been discussing the possibility for at least the
32:48
last two, three years, and many cases longer.
32:52
And the reasoning behind it isn't based just
32:55
on these strong global personalities.
32:59
I always say you got to throw in
33:00
Narendra Modi as well, but who knows.
33:06
But there are structural shifts in power on
33:09
the planet that are happening even now.
33:14
So the argument begins with a very simple
33:16
observation.
33:19
In the post-Cold War system, which has
33:26
been dominated by the United States and supported
33:29
by only Western-based institution, it no longer
33:33
functions properly.
33:36
Now, I agree with that, and I've been
33:37
saying that for years, especially on this show.
33:42
It doesn't mean the United States is no
33:44
longer powerful.
33:45
It doesn't mean that the UN, the World
33:48
Bank, the IMF, all those places, Swift Banking,
33:52
that they're no longer powerful.
33:55
It's just that people are seeking alternatives.
34:01
So it no longer functions just as the
34:07
system, the only system.
34:09
It doesn't mean the US is no longer
34:13
powerful.
34:13
It is.
34:14
But it does mean that other centers of
34:16
power have developed to the point where they
34:19
cannot, or at least should not, be ignored.
34:23
They can't be contained or integrated into terms
34:26
that were previously dictated to them.
34:30
China, under Xi Jinping, has transformed from a
34:33
participant in the global system into a competitor
34:36
within it, and in some areas, an alternative
34:40
to it.
34:42
Its economic scale, manufacturing capacity, technological development, and
34:48
financial initiatives, particularly those tied to infrastructure and
34:55
regional integration of systems, have created a sphere
34:59
of influence that operates alongside, not within, traditional
35:05
Western structure.
35:07
And China isn't asking for a seat at
35:10
somebody else's table.
35:11
It's not doing it anymore.
35:13
It gave that up.
35:14
I believe India has given up that effort
35:17
as well.
35:18
They asked for 20 years to be given
35:21
a seat on the Security Council, and they
35:23
should have one, frankly.
35:25
They're the largest country, population-wise, in the
35:28
world.
35:29
1.48 billion or something like that, just
35:32
under 1.5, and China's right behind them.
35:35
And India's not on, can't do it.
35:39
And they keep saying you have to, how
35:40
long have they been lecturing the UN that
35:42
you have to change this?
35:43
How long have they said you have to
35:45
do something different?
35:46
You have to make this a group effort
35:50
instead of a dictatorial sort of thing.
35:53
So, but China is no longer asking for
35:56
a seat at any of these tables.
35:58
They're building their own table.
36:00
And pretty soon, you're going to have to
36:02
be invited to their table.
36:03
Russia, under Putin, has taken a different path,
36:07
but with a similar result.
36:09
Rather than expanding economically in the way China
36:12
has, Russia's focus on strategic positioning, energy influence,
36:18
military capabilities, and the ability to disrupt or
36:21
counterbalance Western initiatives.
36:24
And that's accurate, although it has a decent
36:27
amount of manufacturing capacity, too.
36:30
But its role is not necessarily to dominate
36:32
globally economically, but to ensure that no global
36:38
structure can function without accounting for its presence.
36:43
And then there's the United States, which is
36:46
the largest and most influential economy in the
36:48
world.
36:49
Unmatched financial reach and global military presence, but
36:54
which is increasingly facing internal division.
37:00
You know, we're so divided, it's not even
37:03
funny.
37:05
We are, we're a mess, you know, I
37:11
suppose.
37:12
And it also faces external resistance in ways
37:17
that were less pronounced in previous decades.
37:22
This is an interesting decade, for sure.
37:28
And when you put these three actors together,
37:31
the logic of a three-legged table, a
37:35
power table, emerges.
37:37
The idea is not that these leaders could
37:39
formally sit down and sign a document dividing
37:42
the world into zones of control.
37:44
As you might have imagined previously, you know,
37:47
Warsaw Pact versus NATO, Eastern Europe, Western Europe,
37:51
East Germany, West Germany.
37:53
But the effective decisions shaping global order are
37:56
increasingly being made through interactions between these powers,
38:01
whether it's directly or indirectly.
38:04
The Russian analysis takes a step further and
38:09
frames it almost as inevitable.
38:12
The argument is that the system itself is
38:15
out of balance.
38:16
And when systems are out of balance, they
38:19
tend to reorganize.
38:20
Not through consensus, but through pressure, negotiation, and
38:25
ultimately accommodation among those who have the capacity
38:29
to enforce the outcome.
38:31
In that framing, Europe becomes less central, not
38:36
because it lacks importance, but because it lacks
38:39
independent leverage at its highest levels.
38:42
It is reactive rather than decisive.
38:45
Influential, but certainly not determinative.
38:49
But the interesting part of this analysis is
38:52
the timeline.
38:54
It's not presented as something that, you know,
38:56
might have, you know, happened or might happen
39:00
in 10 to 20 years.
39:01
It's being discussed as something that is actively
39:04
forming now.
39:06
And with key moments, potential meetings, policy shifts,
39:10
economic alignments, being interpreted as a steps toward
39:13
that structure.
39:14
When they started, when Trump and Putin met
39:17
in Anchorage back in August or whatever it
39:20
was, people expected a lot of good stuff.
39:22
And the fact is, there were things to
39:25
be very positive about.
39:29
So I watched the interview with Nibenzia by,
39:33
I think it was BBC or some other
39:35
broadcaster could, you know, in England, but I'm
39:40
pretty sure it was BBC, that went to
39:43
the, that went and interviewed Nibenzia, who's the
39:47
UN rep, or UN ambassador from Russia.
39:52
And they were talking to him about what
39:56
happened after, you know, what happened after Anchorage
40:01
and how that related.
40:04
And he said there were some big expectations
40:06
that the piece proposed by Trump and Putin
40:10
at that time, but, you know, was still
40:13
something that Russia would welcome that type of
40:19
an arrangement.
40:20
And Trump, you know, was trying to make
40:21
a deal.
40:22
And then remember, right afterward, you know, eight
40:25
or nine European leaders, Stube came, a bunch
40:29
of other people came and wanted to convince
40:36
him, and apparently they did, that it wasn't
40:39
going to happen.
40:41
And it hasn't happened.
40:43
That's the fact.
40:45
But America has increasingly, well, allegedly withdrawn some,
40:52
but we're still sending, how much, 400 million
40:55
this year.
40:56
So it's, we'll see.
40:59
And at any rate, these potential meetings, you
41:04
know, when they were talking right leading up
41:07
to the Iran deal, the war over there
41:11
that we started with Israel, was take the,
41:17
Trump wanted his pressure points is the way
41:20
I see it.
41:21
Now, I suppose I could be wrong, but
41:23
I'm not alone in seeing it this way,
41:25
that he beat up on Venezuela, jailed their
41:29
leader, killed the leader of another country, stole
41:32
all the oil from Venezuela, and is saying
41:36
he's going to do the same in Iran,
41:38
but that hasn't panned out the way he
41:39
wants.
41:40
So he canceled his trip to China, at
41:43
least delayed it.
41:44
So the talk is still out there that
41:47
he's going to go over and meet Xi
41:52
Jinping in the, in the reasonably near future.
41:56
Putin is going to go over there for
41:58
his trip.
41:59
I can't, I don't recall the exact date,
42:02
but he always goes around this time of
42:04
year anyway.
42:04
So that'll be, that'll be happening again.
42:08
And there's some talk that, and I've seen
42:11
two shows of this nature that say that
42:13
there's an outside potential that the three of
42:18
them get together.
42:18
Now, I'll believe that when I see it.
42:22
But these potential meetings, policy shifts, economic alignment,
42:29
some of them are talked about as steps
42:32
toward some sort of a new structure, pressured
42:36
by these three people.
42:39
And the countries aren't necessarily as important as
42:43
the people, you know, because if anybody could
42:45
pull it off, if these three ever came
42:47
to an agreement, I got news for you,
42:49
the world would have to fall in line.
42:51
And if you added Modi, definitely.
42:54
And if you included him, I mean, the
42:56
smart diplomatic move would be to include him
42:59
anyways, in the largest country in the world,
43:01
and rising economically, you know, definitely.
43:06
And so the idea of a meeting in
43:09
Beijing involving Putin and Xi, with the possibility
43:13
of US participation is not a coincidence.
43:17
It's, it's, people are talking about this, floating
43:21
this idea.
43:23
Within that framework, this diplomacy might not be
43:27
dead in the absolute sense, it's, uh, it's
43:31
gone, but maybe it's moved to a different
43:33
level.
43:34
Instead of broad multilateral engagement, you have what
43:37
might be described as a vertical diplomacy direct
43:40
lines between major powers conducted quietly, sometimes through
43:46
intermediaries focused on specific outcomes rather than general
43:50
cooperation.
43:52
This is where the concept of a back
43:54
channel architecture is, is even more important.
43:58
Even when public communication appears limited or hostile,
44:04
there are often ongoing contacts behind the scenes.
44:08
Remember, I told you the other day, after
44:09
watching Lavrov, and watching Lavrov the other day,
44:12
he said something similar after the Anchorage deal.
44:20
Remember, he came out of there wearing his
44:21
USSR sweatshirt, and that was the big deal
44:24
from, for him from that he wore his
44:27
USSR sweatshirt to Alaska.
44:29
And people were quizzing him on that.
44:32
And, but anyway, he said that there were
44:35
big expectations.
44:37
But funny for me in that little tiny
44:40
bit off topic, but, but for both Nabinzia
44:42
and Lavrov, when they were speaking on these
44:46
on Alaska, and this just within the last
44:49
week, when they were speaking on Alaska, they
44:52
both said that they anticipated something more.
44:57
The both were asked, what are the details
45:00
that were going to come out of Alaska?
45:02
What was the deal that you and Donald
45:05
Trump had arranged?
45:06
And remember, we've never been able to find
45:10
a, a list, a checklist of points of,
45:16
of ideas of what Alaska, what the proposition
45:20
was that they were floating to Ukraine.
45:24
And you get bits and pieces, but on
45:26
the Russian side, very, very, every single time
45:33
they talk about it, in fact, they all
45:36
say the same thing.
45:37
We don't talk about negotiation while negotiation is
45:41
ongoing.
45:42
We don't agree with negotiation by true social
45:47
or by, by X, you know, that's not
45:51
how we negotiate.
45:52
Chinese say the same thing.
45:53
Indians say the same thing.
45:55
It's only the Europeans and Trump that do
45:58
everything by, by posting, you know, they might
46:01
throw out some, some, they might have secondaries
46:05
throughout commentary, but they don't, they don't tell
46:09
what the proposal is as soon as they
46:11
walk out the door.
46:13
They go, yeah, we talked to these guys
46:14
and we gave them this and they didn't
46:15
take it.
46:16
That's not their style.
46:18
They don't do it.
46:19
So there's a belief that negotiations are still
46:25
ongoing, not in the open and, and, but
46:29
through what might be called the shuttle diplomacy,
46:32
representatives moving between capitals, they convey each other's
46:36
positions, they test proposals, and they gradually build
46:40
towards something more concrete, but that's pretty much
46:43
stopped post Alaska.
46:46
There's not been much going on since then,
46:48
at least on the Ukraine side.
46:50
So this brings us to the role of
46:52
the United States in this new framework and
46:55
specifically the question of leadership.
46:57
The idea that Donald Trump could be part
46:59
of a structure is tied to a particular
47:01
perception of how he approaches negotiation.
47:05
So from that perspective, he operates less like
47:09
a traditional politician and more like a transactional
47:13
negotiator, somebody willing to bypass established process in
47:19
favor of direct engagement.
47:21
And he always seems to think that he's
47:23
the only, you know, I can get this
47:24
done, right?
47:25
Which is, I don't mean that badly in
47:27
any way, because in a lot of ways
47:28
he, he, he can, but whether that's an
47:32
advantage or a disadvantage or a, you know,
47:34
some sort of liability depends on your point
47:36
of view.
47:37
Supporters might argue that it follows and it
47:40
allows for flexibility and the possibility of, of,
47:43
of breakthrough agreements.
47:45
Critics say that it's unpredictable and undermines institutional
47:50
stability.
47:52
Well, I certainly agree with that, but I'm
47:55
not saying it's necessarily bad, but within the
47:57
three, three-legged table, the three powers group
48:02
concept, the style is seen as compatible with
48:06
a kind of direct leader, leader to leader
48:10
negotiation that a structure requires like that.
48:14
And at the same time, there'd be an
48:16
acknowledgement even within the, the analysis being put
48:21
out on the Russian side.
48:26
There's a phone.
48:28
I've been distracted by the TV again.
48:31
There's a support Trump.
48:34
You have to call 800-540-9106 and
48:37
press one and sign the Trump petition approval
48:41
petition.
48:43
So everybody get out your phone, 800-540
48:46
-9106, press one.
48:50
Let's see.
48:51
At the same time, the Russian analysts are
48:54
saying, especially in recognition of recent developments, particularly
48:59
in terms of policy decisions and geopolitical tension,
49:03
that the path has now been complicated toward
49:06
any kind of coordinated outcome with these, these
49:09
one, these one-party rule tendencies that have
49:16
come out with, you know, things like Venezuela
49:19
and Iran.
49:19
The idea that the process has been mishandled
49:23
or disrupted is definitely present, even if it's
49:27
not always stated.
49:29
So that brings us to the question about
49:33
adding Narendra Modi.
49:35
From a structural standpoint, it definitely makes sense
49:38
because India represents a significant and growing center
49:41
of economic and political influence.
49:44
It is not aligned in a traditional sense
49:46
with either the West or with the Russia
49:49
-China axis, and it has its own strategic
49:53
priorities.
49:54
And in fact, that's what Modi, Jaishankar, several
49:57
others say all the time.
49:59
Quit telling us what our interests are.
50:02
We know what they are.
50:04
You know, quit dictating to us what we're
50:06
going to do.
50:06
They won't take it from, from Russia or
50:09
China, and they sure as hell ain't going
50:10
to take it from the U.S. So
50:13
what, what it is, what, what's, what's happening,
50:16
even if you look at the four and
50:19
the question I just raised about whether you
50:21
should include Narendra Modi or not, just the
50:29
fact that you're having that, that thought process
50:32
is, it talks about the multipolar reality more
50:36
clearly than anything else.
50:38
The inclusion of India would complicate a three
50:42
-power model, but it also makes it more
50:44
realistic.
50:45
Instead of a triangular structure, you begin to
50:48
see something closer to a network of major
50:51
powers, each with overlapping but not identical interests.
50:55
So I've argued for a long time, too,
50:59
that the EU is, how do I want
51:05
to put this, as being as dictatorial as
51:07
it is these days, you know, destroying or,
51:11
you know, supporting opposition parties of anybody that
51:15
is anti, did you hear about Bulgaria, by
51:18
the way, that, that went to a strong,
51:22
a strong Putin backer, I forget his name,
51:26
it's another, another Slavic Russian, Russian-style name,
51:30
Blintsov, Peskov, not Peskov, that's the guy in
51:34
the, but whatever it is, I can't remember
51:36
his name, but that he won, and he
51:37
won with a huge, huge margin, and he
51:41
has, he has a majority, he doesn't need
51:43
a coalition government, he needs, he, he can,
51:46
they can do it all themselves, his party
51:48
won, crossed the board, enough seats at a
51:51
massive level.
51:52
So Bulgaria, keep an eye on Bulgaria here
51:55
in the, in the future, but these, the,
52:00
these models that people put together, they seem
52:04
to exclude these days the European Union, and
52:09
the reason the European Union was supposed to
52:11
be put into, you know, into effect was
52:14
to have a larger world presence, but they're
52:21
still disjointed in there, you know, there's still
52:25
some major players and minor players, but, but
52:28
who runs the, who runs the EU are
52:31
unelected bureaucrats, so they got their share of
52:34
problems, and whether they will ever be a
52:39
fifth portion, so you have to analyze, so
52:42
if you look at the UN after World
52:44
War II and what, what, what prompted it,
52:46
it was the, it was the US, Russia,
52:50
and some other major powers who got together
52:52
that weren't, weren't quite as major anymore, Great
52:56
Britain, France, Germany, you know, however you want
52:59
to put it together, that they, they were
53:01
going to create this new world structure, and
53:05
they did it with the biggest powers of
53:07
the day.
53:09
Well, perhaps, it's been 80 years, perhaps it's
53:14
time to look at that concept again, and
53:18
analyze where the real power structures of the
53:22
world are coming, this next hundred year period
53:24
is not going to be the same as
53:25
the last one, and so when you talk
53:30
about the three or even the four power
53:32
model, it's, you still have to have these
53:36
key decisions being made, and even if you
53:40
look at three, overlapping with, but they don't
53:45
have identical interests, and in that environment, the
53:48
idea of, one table is more metaphorical than
53:53
literal, but the underlying principle is the same,
53:55
the key decisions are going to be shaped
53:57
by a relatively small group of actors, rather
54:00
than through broad institutional processes.
54:03
Now, I say that there hasn't been a
54:05
whole bunch of broad institutional processes anyway, if
54:09
you believe the UN listens to other people,
54:12
forget it, it's totally western dominated, and they
54:17
ignore what they don't want to apply to
54:21
them, they just have it apply to somebody
54:23
else.
54:24
So, I don't know.
54:29
Now, this is relevant, if the model is
54:33
even partially accurate, it helps explain a lot
54:36
of the trends we've been seeing lately, the
54:38
weakening of a traditional diplomacy that Lavrov talks
54:43
about, that Lukashenko talked about, they make sense
54:46
in a system where formal channels are less
54:49
central, the economic adjustments of Russia, the sanction
54:54
therapy, if you want to call it that,
54:57
Iran sanctions, and the strategic position of China,
55:03
aligned with the world where self-sufficiency and
55:05
leverage are prioritized.
55:11
Now, think about this, all I want you
55:13
to do is think about it, I'm not
55:14
even saying that I believe it, but it
55:16
did make it much more likely.
55:18
How long has Iran been under sanctions?
55:22
Iran has had to become self-sufficient.
55:24
How long has Iran been told, we're going
55:27
to come in and bomb the crap out
55:29
of you, and you know, the latest version
55:31
of Donald Trump's genocidal comments, we're going to
55:35
kill you all, we're going to kill a
55:38
civilization tonight, or whatever it was he said,
55:40
and you know, we're going to send you
55:42
back to the Stone Age.
55:44
You know, those sorts of commentary make you
55:47
one tend to be, or try to be
55:48
a little more self-sufficient.
55:50
No wonder they've been stockpiling missiles for decades.
55:55
And so, if you take that self-sufficiency
55:59
and leverage, the Straits of Hormuz, that's what
56:04
everybody else is doing.
56:05
What's the leverage?
56:06
So China, or not China, Japan is now
56:08
talking about militarization as well.
56:13
Japan dumped another 60 billion in U.S.
56:20
debt instruments, and China did so the same
56:23
day, this was like last Friday, that they
56:26
dumped them, and they're both on a massive
56:28
deal.
56:28
China has only about 30% of what
56:33
it held in U.S. debt a short
56:36
10 years ago.
56:39
They've wiped out a ton of it.
56:41
Japan is doing the same.
56:44
When it comes right down to it, they
56:45
aren't going to fund our debt, and the
56:48
rest of the world is tired of doing
56:49
it, and that move is speeding up.
56:53
The oil dollar is dying.
56:56
People are trading in yuan, paying for it
57:00
in yuan.
57:00
You know that Saudi Arabia accepts the yuan,
57:03
and now it doesn't necessarily have to be
57:06
the oil dollar.
57:07
They've made agreements.
57:10
Iran is definitely accepting it, and so these
57:13
alternative tracks are there.
57:15
So when you look at these leverage, these
57:19
three stool models, the pressures within the European
57:24
Union, they reflect a region that is adapting
57:28
to a role that is far less dominant
57:32
than it once was.
57:34
Nobody considers Europe anymore.
57:38
They don't, and they're trying to stay relevant,
57:41
and how do they do that?
57:43
They force the issue toward the EU and
57:47
not toward the individual countries.
57:50
So even the situation with Iran and the
57:53
strategic choke points can be viewed through this
57:55
same lens.
57:56
In a multipolar system, regional actors gain importance
58:01
because they can influence global outcomes in ways
58:04
that a larger power must account for.
58:07
They're part of the negotiation, whether directly or
58:09
indirectly, because their actions can affect a broader
58:12
balance.
58:13
The question, then, is not whether there will
58:15
be a formal meeting between the three leaders,
58:18
although that would certainly be a significant deal,
58:23
and would certainly shift to change in the
58:26
tides.
58:27
The question is whether the world is already
58:29
operating as if that structure exists, and in
58:33
many ways, it might already be.
58:36
Decisions are being made with an awareness of
58:39
how the other major powers will respond.
58:42
Now, Trump doesn't care about NATO, about Europe.
58:45
He's said it, but he does care about
58:47
Russia, and he does care about China, and
58:49
he really cares about India, too.
58:51
He doesn't say it as often, but he
58:53
wants to make sure that he's the biggest
58:57
stud in the room, and more power to
59:00
him, so what?
59:01
All three of these guys, I'm sure, have
59:05
a highly developed ego.
59:08
So policies are being shaped not just by
59:11
domestic consideration, but by the need to position
59:13
yourselves in a shifting global framework.
59:16
How many people believe that Trump seizing Venezuelan
59:22
oil and trying to seize Iranian oil deals
59:26
with the next 100 years, making America in
59:34
charge of the energy infrastructure of the planet,
59:38
or trying to, for the next 100 years?
59:40
I doubt he's going to be able to
59:43
pull it off, but it appears that that's
59:45
what he's been trying to do in the
59:47
global framework.
59:49
So they're positioning themselves in a shifting global
59:52
framework, and Europe, completely irrelevant in that regard.
59:56
What you are seeing is not the creation
59:59
of a new order in a single moment,
1:00:01
but the gradual emergence of one through a
1:00:03
series of interactions, adjustments, recalibrations, regional agreements,
1:00:14
Shanghai Cooperation Organization, stuff like that, BRICS even,
1:00:19
although that one's a little more broad, but
1:00:21
even BRICS.
1:00:23
It is an uneven, sometimes contradictory, and far
1:00:26
from complete, but it is happening.
1:00:28
A new world order is developing, and the
1:00:31
most important thing to understand is that this
1:00:33
process doesn't require public acknowledgment, doesn't require us
1:00:37
to go, yep, sure is.
1:00:38
It doesn't need to be a declaration, any
1:00:41
sort of treaty, or a formal structure.
1:00:43
It just needs to quit using the old
1:00:45
one.
1:00:45
How many people beat up on the UN?
1:00:48
All of them.
1:00:49
Everybody comes out and says, you know, you
1:00:50
guys are hypocrites, and they're talking about all
1:00:53
of the bigger leaders who ignore.
1:00:56
What's his name?
1:00:58
Chavez?
1:01:00
Damn it.
1:01:01
No, I can't remember his name, the guy
1:01:02
from Spain.
1:01:05
It's completely slipped my mind, but he gave
1:01:08
a speech there and talked about not following
1:01:15
the rules.
1:01:16
Canada gets up there.
1:01:17
Kearney gets up there and says, we haven't
1:01:22
followed our own rules for decades, and we've
1:01:24
always kind of looked the other way because
1:01:26
of the bigger picture.
1:01:28
You know, we're developing hegemony or whatever, but
1:01:31
when the hegemon is no longer your friend,
1:01:35
well, then you got to think differently, right?
1:01:38
And of course, you know, that's why these
1:01:40
fractures are occurring, okay?
1:01:42
So when you hear discussions about a potential
1:01:49
meeting between Putin, Xi Jinping, and any U
1:01:53
.S. leader, but Trump, don't think of it
1:01:55
as a standalone event.
1:01:57
Think of it as a visible moment in
1:01:59
a much larger process, one that's been developing
1:02:02
for years and will continue to evolve regardless
1:02:06
of whether that specific meeting ever takes place.
1:02:12
Because at the end of the day, the
1:02:13
structure of the world isn't determined by what
1:02:16
is announced.
1:02:17
It's determined by what is actually practiced.
1:02:20
And right now, this sort of shuttle practice
1:02:23
is occurring.
1:02:24
What is being practiced looks a lot less
1:02:26
like a unified global system and a lot
1:02:29
more like a set of parallel powers negotiating
1:02:33
their positions in real time.
1:02:35
Certainly, it is from the standpoint of what
1:02:39
they put on, what they put on, I
1:02:43
don't know, X or true social or whatever.
1:02:47
So it's an interesting concept.
1:02:51
I believe we're going to listen to a
1:02:53
little bit more of that beautiful voice.
1:02:55
Hold on.
1:02:56
Or a similar one, not the same one.
1:03:28
And I'm just out of time.
1:03:31
Crossing signs we can't define.
1:03:35
We're living between the lines.
1:03:39
Not yours, not mine.
1:03:46
Just a moment passing by.
1:03:50
Between the lines tonight.
1:03:54
We don't choose, we don't fight.
1:03:57
We just feel it while it's right.
1:04:07
Clock keeps moving, body slow.
1:04:11
Every touch says don't let go.
1:04:15
Morning waits outside the door.
1:04:19
We're not ready for what's wrong.
1:04:23
If this fades when daylight shows.
1:04:26
Let it fade, don't make it hurt.
1:04:31
We were fired, we were sworn.
1:04:34
Nothing promised, nothing broke.
1:04:38
We're living between the lines.
1:04:40
Not yours, not mine.
1:04:44
Just a moment passing by.
1:04:48
Between the lines tonight.
1:04:52
No goodbye, no rewind.
1:04:56
Just your breath against mine.
1:05:11
When the
1:05:25
sound is gone and the lights don't wind,
1:05:30
I remember you.
1:05:39
Between the lines.
1:05:55
Between the lines.
1:06:03
Between the lines.
1:06:15
Gotta love it.
1:06:17
Oh, why am I yelling?
1:06:19
I don't mean to be yelling.
1:06:20
Sorry about that.
1:06:21
We are gonna do one more song that
1:06:23
I just happen to particularly like just because
1:06:25
I like it.
1:06:28
And I think we're gonna do it even
1:06:31
before I get there.
1:06:34
With no, no lyrics because I don't have
1:06:37
them.
1:06:38
But I can't find them.
1:06:41
But I always I heard this song first
1:06:44
when I was living in Qatar.
1:06:47
And it is a Greek English pop song
1:06:53
written by Phoebus and Evie Druza.
1:06:57
The song is performed by Despina Vandy.
1:07:05
And it's, you know, pretty cool, at least
1:07:08
in my view.
1:07:09
And if you haven't heard it before, well,
1:07:11
it could be entertaining.
1:07:12
Oops, sorry, we're still on something else there.
1:07:16
We gotta get rid of that.
1:07:18
Where is it?
1:07:19
We shall find out, shan't we?
1:07:23
Let's see here.
1:07:26
Okay, well, we're gonna do one more song
1:07:27
just because I'm on a roll today.
1:07:29
And then we're gonna come back and we're
1:07:30
gonna talk a little bit more about Europe.
1:07:34
You know, I had a buddy when I
1:07:36
was in the army and he'd say, well,
1:07:39
I'm not gonna repeat that.
1:07:41
That's a bad.
1:07:43
Anyway, here is Despina Vandy, Gia.
1:11:48
Gia, Despina Vandy is who did that song.
1:11:51
I don't remember the year, but it was
1:11:53
like back in 2012 or something.
1:11:55
But it was it was played quite a
1:11:57
bit when I was living in Qatar.
1:11:59
There was a if you'd go to one
1:12:01
of the rooftop places for so every Friday,
1:12:04
they would have a brunch out there because
1:12:07
it's the Sabbath and all the everything was
1:12:10
closed.
1:12:11
So the work week was Sunday through Thursday
1:12:18
was the work week.
1:12:19
And so actually it was Fridays.
1:12:21
They'd have these big rooftop, you know, you
1:12:25
like I was telling you about, you go
1:12:27
see soccer, you go do whatever.
1:12:28
But you or rugby, a lot of rugby
1:12:33
games played over there and or not played
1:12:36
video showed over there.
1:12:38
Lots of sports, sports sorts of bars on
1:12:41
rooftops and stuff like that.
1:12:42
It was really pretty cool.
1:12:43
And five star buffets everywhere.
1:12:46
And so free food, free alcohol the whole
1:12:48
day.
1:12:48
You go sit and spend the whole day
1:12:50
up there or you go out in the
1:12:51
desert and do it and do it in
1:12:53
these huge tents out there.
1:12:54
It was also kind of cool to go
1:12:56
do that as well.
1:12:56
There's a totally different cultural experience.
1:13:00
And that song in particular was was always
1:13:04
pretty popular over there around that time.
1:13:07
But I think it came out a few
1:13:08
years before that.
1:13:09
Anyway, that's when I first heard it.
1:13:10
And it was a pretty cool song.
1:13:13
I want to continue on with what we
1:13:14
were talking about as far as Europe and
1:13:19
the cracks that are showing up in the
1:13:22
system over there.
1:13:23
If there is one, you know, I've always.
1:13:27
I've been around for the time of the
1:13:28
European Union.
1:13:31
I've been here when the people in the
1:13:32
United States think about Europe, they still have
1:13:36
a lingering image of some sort of stability,
1:13:39
you know, coordination and a kind of an
1:13:43
institutional sort of maturity that suggests that things
1:13:48
are handled, managed, ultimately under control.
1:13:52
Everything's under control.
1:13:54
We got this covered.
1:13:55
The image was built over decades, particularly after
1:13:57
the Cold War.
1:13:59
And then the European Union positioned itself not
1:14:02
just as an economic bloc, but as a
1:14:04
model of cooperation, integration, shared values.
1:14:07
It presented itself as proof that historic rivals
1:14:11
could align, that borders could soften.
1:14:14
Remember, I talk about this pretty frequently.
1:14:17
The Europeans have been at each other's throats
1:14:19
for generations.
1:14:22
You know, today's today's allies were yesterday's enemies
1:14:26
and vice versa.
1:14:27
And it's constant, you know, and one one
1:14:31
continual, at least for the last 100 years,
1:14:32
is Russia.
1:14:34
Everybody hates the Russians, at least for the
1:14:38
last.
1:14:39
Excuse me.
1:14:41
The image has been built for a long
1:14:43
time and it.
1:14:46
I don't know borders.
1:14:48
You know, they have the Schengen for a
1:14:50
long time.
1:14:50
The model held together well enough to convince
1:14:53
the rest of us that, you know, that
1:14:55
everything was fine, at least on the surface.
1:14:58
But what you're seeing now is a strain
1:15:00
beneath that surface that's quite visible, not in
1:15:03
a single dramatic collapse, but in a series
1:15:05
of adjustment, recalculation, quiet reversals.
1:15:09
And when you take them all together, they
1:15:10
point to something more fundamental.
1:15:12
Europe is not breaking apart in the sense
1:15:15
of disintegration, but it is shifting into a
1:15:19
more defensive posture.
1:15:20
One about and talks about internal internal stability,
1:15:24
taking precedence over outward projection and where ideals
1:15:28
are reevaluated against economic realities.
1:15:32
Most immediate and telling example of this shift
1:15:35
is the evolving approach toward Ukrainian refugees.
1:15:39
When the conflict escalated, the response across Europe
1:15:42
was swift and initially unified.
1:15:45
Borders were open.
1:15:46
Support systems were activated.
1:15:49
Come here.
1:15:49
We'll give you a 2000 euro a month
1:15:51
for free, free housing, free food.
1:15:53
And there's a strong narrative about solidarity and
1:15:56
making sure this is OK.
1:15:57
Governments frame the acceptance of reputee refugees not
1:16:01
only as a humanitarian necessity, but a moral
1:16:04
imperative, something defining Europe's identity in contrast to
1:16:08
other parts of the world.
1:16:09
That message for a time seemed as though
1:16:11
the system could absorb the influx without significant
1:16:15
internal tension.
1:16:16
But with the passage of time, there's been
1:16:20
a bit of testing of that theory.
1:16:21
Even the strongest political narratives are being tested.
1:16:24
Supporting large populations over extended periods of time
1:16:28
requires sustained financial commitment, administrative coordination, and most
1:16:34
importantly, public buy-in.
1:16:36
Housing has to be provided to these people.
1:16:38
Health care has to be expanded.
1:16:41
Schools have to integrate new students with different
1:16:43
language skills and different financial assistance has to
1:16:47
continue.
1:16:47
The direct money to be paid.
1:16:50
These are not temporary measures.
1:16:52
They're structural obligations.
1:16:53
And as these obligations begin to accumulate, the
1:16:57
question shifts from can we help to how
1:17:00
long can we help?
1:17:02
This is where Europe is right now.
1:17:03
The language is changing, not abruptly, but very
1:17:06
noticeably.
1:17:07
Where there was once emphasis on the open
1:17:09
-ended support, there's now increasing discussion about limits,
1:17:12
timelines, transition.
1:17:13
Some countries' benefits are reduced, restructured.
1:17:17
In others, there are explicit or implicit efforts
1:17:19
to encourage refugees to return to Ukraine, particularly
1:17:23
as certain regions are deemed relatively stable.
1:17:26
There are even projections, circulations, and policy discussions
1:17:30
that suggest that hundreds of thousands of individuals
1:17:33
are affected by these changes over the next
1:17:35
year.
1:17:36
Zelensky's running around telling people that he believes
1:17:39
300,000 in the next two years will
1:17:45
be returned.
1:17:46
Fighting age.
1:17:47
I heard an analysis yesterday that said that
1:17:50
they're right now meeting the numbers of 30
1:17:54
,000 a month, Ukrainians, that they're actually meeting
1:17:59
the numbers.
1:18:00
Now, I haven't heard that.
1:18:02
I've heard it from, but both are on
1:18:04
the Ukrainian side.
1:18:05
I haven't heard it.
1:18:07
I need to go back and check out
1:18:09
Orestovich and see what his says.
1:18:11
Orestovich is actually the right way to say
1:18:13
it.
1:18:13
But that needs to be verified.
1:18:17
But the Europeans are getting ready to have
1:18:21
a massive force out of Ukrainians.
1:18:27
And Zelensky's all for it.
1:18:28
He says that he can have, they say
1:18:31
that they can have 56,000 in the
1:18:33
next two months.
1:18:34
And that there's, you know, a strong possibility
1:18:38
of a couple hundred thousand by the end
1:18:40
of the year.
1:18:41
So, what makes this significant isn't the policy
1:18:45
shift itself.
1:18:46
It's what reveals about the limits of the
1:18:48
European model.
1:18:49
For years, the European Union has emphasized values,
1:18:51
human rights, humanitarian responsibility, collective action as the
1:18:56
foundation of its identity.
1:18:57
Those values are present, but now they're being
1:18:59
filtered through a pragmatic lens.
1:19:03
Economic capacity is asserting itself as the ultimate
1:19:07
constraint, which it should be, because they can't
1:19:10
afford it.
1:19:10
And when there's tension between value and capacity,
1:19:13
capacity wins.
1:19:14
I mean, I wonder, and I've never looked
1:19:17
into this, but it's an interesting question.
1:19:19
Because these Ukrainians that have been over there
1:19:21
for, what are we, in year five?
1:19:25
They're not required to work, is my understanding.
1:19:29
That they get to go over there, these
1:19:30
families, they're still getting the money.
1:19:33
And, you know, that's what it is.
1:19:36
These are not, they're not being forced into
1:19:43
the labor market.
1:19:44
Let's put it that way.
1:19:45
This assistance chain is still going.
1:19:48
The free housing is still out there.
1:19:50
And the Ukrainians know how to maximize it.
1:19:53
If they lose it in one country, they
1:19:55
go to the next country.
1:19:57
And that is not a unified EU model.
1:20:02
So if France cuts you off, you just,
1:20:04
you know, go across the border to Germany
1:20:07
and grab something there.
1:20:10
You lose out there, we're off to Switzerland.
1:20:12
You lose out there, Austria, and they're all
1:20:14
a couple hours drive.
1:20:15
It's no problem.
1:20:17
We just relocate.
1:20:18
It's not like, it'd be like us moving
1:20:21
from the Lake area to St. Louis, you
1:20:26
know, but just go to the cross-border
1:20:28
Collinsville or something and start using Illinois freebies
1:20:32
instead of Missouri.
1:20:34
So these restructuring supply chains shift away from
1:20:39
certain sources and increase reliance on alternatives, all
1:20:42
introduce a volatility into this system.
1:20:45
At the same time, there's divergence in Europe.
1:20:48
The idea of a unified block was always
1:20:50
been somewhat aspirational because member states have different
1:20:54
economies, different cultures.
1:20:56
I was telling you earlier that they forced,
1:20:59
for example, Greece to limit its freebies to
1:21:07
older people, its pension reserves, and it forced
1:21:11
them into the Euro, and when they take
1:21:12
the Euro, you know how they enforce it?
1:21:14
They just quit providing money in the ATMs.
1:21:17
You can't get Euros in the bank, and
1:21:18
so therefore, you know, what are you going
1:21:21
to live on?
1:21:22
You know, they tell you what.
1:21:26
There's plenty of issues coming up.
1:21:28
In periods of stability, the differences are managed,
1:21:31
but under stress, like they are now, they're
1:21:33
much more prevalent.
1:21:34
Some countries are willing to bear more economic
1:21:37
costs for geopolitical alignment, say Poland, while others
1:21:40
are a little more cautious, prioritizing domestic stability
1:21:43
over external commitment.
1:21:46
Bulgaria, Orban in Hungary, you know, but we
1:21:51
wonder what's going to happen now.
1:21:52
Political leadership within Europe is also under pressure,
1:21:55
quite a bit of it, and where the
1:21:57
situation is even more unpredictable.
1:21:59
Leaders are navigating a landscape where public opinion
1:22:02
shifts.
1:22:02
You just saw the elections of a Putin
1:22:06
backer in Bulgaria, and I know that's got
1:22:10
to worry the Kaya-Kalises and the Ursula
1:22:14
von der Leyens of the world.
1:22:16
Elections are less about long-term vision and
1:22:19
more about emergency or immediate concerns.
1:22:22
Energy, cost of living, employment creates incentives for
1:22:24
leaders to adjust positions.
1:22:27
United Kingdom is a useful case study, even
1:22:30
though they're no longer part of the European
1:22:31
Union.
1:22:32
The political environment there has become increasingly volatile
1:22:35
with leadership changes.
1:22:37
There was supposed to be something coming out,
1:22:39
discussions, and I haven't followed it yet, but
1:22:41
the leadership figures like Starmer often carry a
1:22:44
tone of scrutiny and skepticism.
1:22:46
He's getting beat up by putting an unqualified
1:22:49
guy in a position, and I just saw
1:22:51
a little bit of it on TV there,
1:22:54
and there's some real issues.
1:22:56
So the language and the international commentary of
1:22:59
pressure, vulnerability, and collapse are not necessarily objective,
1:23:03
but they do indicate how the situation is
1:23:06
being perceived externally, and the perception does matter
1:23:10
because Europe's influence has always been tied not
1:23:13
just to its economy, but to its image
1:23:16
as a stable and reliable partner, historic place
1:23:19
for travel.
1:23:20
When that image is cracked, it affects how
1:23:23
others in other regions even react with it.
1:23:26
Confidence is not something that can be maintained
1:23:28
by a declaration, and I'm telling you, they're
1:23:31
not confident in the EU.
1:23:33
I'm sure as hell not.
1:23:34
The notion that refugees might be encouraged to
1:23:37
return back to Ukraine is part of a
1:23:39
broader recalibration.
1:23:42
It reflects recognition that the current level of
1:23:44
support cannot be maintained without consequence, and those
1:23:48
consequences aren't just financial.
1:23:50
They're political.
1:23:51
They are social.
1:23:53
Public opinion has shifted, particularly if people feel
1:23:56
that their own economic situation is being affected
1:23:58
thereby.
1:24:00
Governments are sensitive to that, and they have
1:24:02
to adjust accordingly.
1:24:03
So what you're seeing is a transition from
1:24:06
values response, oh, it's democracy, to capacity-driven.
1:24:10
The rhetoric may still emphasize we're solidly behind
1:24:13
Ukraine, but the policies are shaped by what's
1:24:15
feasible rather than what these ideological concerns are.
1:24:21
This doesn't mean Europe is abandoning its principles
1:24:24
or Ukraine, but it does mean that the
1:24:26
principles are going to be bent or constrained
1:24:31
or applied within the stricter limits.
1:24:33
So when you look at Europe today, you're
1:24:38
not looking at a system in collapse, but
1:24:40
you're looking at a system under a great
1:24:42
deal of pressure, adapting in real time to
1:24:44
challenges that it can't, can't, that it's faced
1:24:47
with.
1:24:48
And these cracks aren't catastrophic, but they're very
1:24:51
visible.
1:24:52
Perhaps the most important thing to understand is
1:24:55
that these changes are not temporary.
1:24:58
Just like I was saying on the shift
1:25:00
in the world order view that is coming,
1:25:04
no matter how you slice it, it's also
1:25:07
coming for these guys.
1:25:08
These are not temporary change.
1:25:10
So Europe is part of a longer term
1:25:11
adjustment, one that reflects a world where resources
1:25:15
are tighter, expectations are more calibrated or recalibrated,
1:25:19
and the balance between ideals and practicality is
1:25:22
being renegotiated in real time.
1:25:24
And that is the context in which Europe
1:25:27
is operating.
1:25:29
It's a context that will shape not only
1:25:30
its own future, but the broader dynamics of
1:25:34
the global system I discussed earlier.
1:25:38
And I appreciate you being here on International
1:25:40
Flavor this morning.
1:25:42
There will not be a program tomorrow.
1:25:45
I'm on the road and I'm traveling and
1:25:47
I don't have time to get another one
1:25:50
in.
1:25:51
Maybe we'll replay something entertaining from before.
1:25:53
Who knows?
1:25:54
Because it is Wednesday, the largest day in
1:25:57
radio history.
1:25:59
Tomorrow here at damradio.com forward slash live.
1:26:02
You can listen and hope that you do
1:26:06
go out to internationalflavor.com and check out
1:26:13
the prior issues.
1:26:16
And you can also wait for me on
1:26:19
Thursday, 730 AM, same time, same bat channel.
1:26:25
I will see you then.