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Episode 206 - 1/27/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:19
Hello, and welcome to episode 206 of the All Systems Go Sports
0:25
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:28
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
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Happy Monday. A new week begins final week in
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the month of January. And that's right, the long
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arduous journey to the Super Bowl starts today.
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We got two weeks off and then of course we got a repeat of the
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title match couple years ago with the Eagles and the Chiefs.
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I have some initial thoughts. I want to do a lot of recap
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today talking about the games from yesterday, recap and some
0:59
college hoops over the weekend, and then give me some early
1:01
thoughts on this matchup. I got some interesting stats as
1:04
well as some interesting rhythm edges and some player props to
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monitor. I think we got to have a bit of
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a conversation about how to approach player props
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specifically when it comes to the Super Bowl.
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Because you listen to a lot of odds makers nowadays and they'll
1:15
tell you really the betting on the props, whether it's novelty
1:19
props or whether it's just straight up player props.
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That's almost approaching if not exceeding the total handle that
1:26
is coming in on the conventional spread money line or total.
1:30
A lot of Super Bowl talk here today, guys set in the stage for
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the next couple weeks, but then going to look at a three pack of
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sweats to talk about for tonight.
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All college basketball. We got 2 low bet obscure sharp
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line moves and then we have one of my favorite system matches.
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And if you know, you know. But I'll explain it to you
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tonight because it is one of the fishiest lines, line moves and
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system matches that you're ever going to see.
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Happens to be one of my favorite.
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So a three pack college plays for tonight and then a lot of
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very early Super Bowl talk, the big game and some player props
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and how to attack the Super Bowl week or two weeks leading up to
2:04
the Super Bowl. Now looking back toward the
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weekend, guys, if anyone read the sharp report visen.com, you
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can always check it out. I'll tweet it out each day from
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my Twitter at Josh under score insights.
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We had a sweep on Saturday. Houston came through for the
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team K state unranked home favorite verse ranked opponent
2:20
in Missouri. All came through on Saturday,
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which was nice, and then split the games yesterday.
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I felt like kind of idiot taking the commanders there, but 6 1/2
2:29
was the best number. A lot of books didn't even go to
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6 1/2. What happens?
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Well, they get blown out obviously in Philly advances,
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But I would argue, hey, Washington, the mistakes, man,
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the fumbles. How many times do they fumble
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the ball? That was just brutal.
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And again, can't stop a Nosebleed.
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So couldn't get the commanders. But we did talk about teasing
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down Philly. We talked about teasing up
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Buffalo, 1 1/2 up to 7 1/2. That teaser came through and
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then luckily enough official bet there on the Kansas City Chiefs
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also came through. And again, we're getting to a
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point here, guys, where when are we going to learn never to bet
3:03
against Mahomes? Now I learned the hard way and
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this is a full circle moment for me because I think I told the
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story last week, but a couple years ago when it was Eagles
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Chiefs Part 1, I played the Eagles, thought I made the sharp
3:15
bet. What happens?
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Mahomes comes back and wins the game.
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And I said to myself, I am never going to bet against Mahomes
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again. And one day it'll probably hurt
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me. But until that, until that day,
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and maybe I'll lose in the Super Bowl because I'm looking at
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Kansas City once again here, guys, as a money line bet.
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There's a lot of nuances to that that I'll explain.
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But until that day happens, I'm going to keep playing the best,
3:35
the best dynasty, the best QB around.
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I saw it with Brady. I'm seeing it with Mahomes.
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And since I made that declaration, we continue to be
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undefeated with Mahomes getting it done yesterday, Mahomes
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getting it done against the 49ers a year ago in the Super
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Bowl. And we got another short number
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with some interesting stats here when it comes to favorites and
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dogs in the big game. So hope you had a good weekend
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overall. Let's see if we can start a week
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off right, the final week in January on a hot note.
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So I want to start off with some college hoops because lines are
4:04
moving and we got one huge game to talk about and two smaller
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games. But as always, same amount on
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each one flat betting betting to wrist, not betting to win.
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So let's see if we can go 2 and one and eke out a winning night.
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So the first game that I wanted to mention 8:00 game here
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tonight. This is northwestern
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northwestern state against Lamar low bet obscure game add a game
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extra game game three O 652-930-6530.
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So you know we like the line moves when it comes to these
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games because, as always, when you're betting a game, you got
4:35
to think about what kind of game is it?
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What sport, how public is the sport?
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And then even if it's a sport like college hoops, you know,
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we're going to get to a big one here in a second.
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Iowa State, Arizona, which is much more heavily bet versus
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this little Northwestern state Lamar, which to me percentage is
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not quite as meaningful, but line moves are because the
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public may not care about Northwestern state Lamar the day
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after the day after the AFC and NFC championship game, but looks
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based on this line move that pros do.
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So couple things like about this one.
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Let's start off and set the stage.
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Northwestern State comes in nine and 10.
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They've won two straight games. I just beat Stephen F Austin 57
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to 54 in overtime, winning that game outright as a 3 1/2 point
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Rd. dog. Meanwhile, Lamar 11:00 and 9:00
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on the year. They've also won two in a row,
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just took down East Texas A&M 61 to 58 in overtime, but they did
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not cover as a nine and a half point home favorite.
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So what are we seeing across the market here?
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Well, hopefully you maybe you're following the all systems go
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best bet picks on juice Reel, which you can do from the social
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tab and search ASG under score podcast.
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Or maybe you're the sharp board that I wrote earlier today
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because I'm loving Lamar and I'm loving the fact good and bad at
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this point good that this line continues to go to Lamar.
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Not great if you haven't bet it yet because it is going to be a
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little bit more expensive, but it is a good sign that hopefully
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Lamar is the sharp bet that comes through.
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So the reason why I like Lamar early, they open up as a 3 1/2
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point home favorite. We've seen Lamar at the time
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earlier today, late late morning, early afternoon -3 1/2
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-, 115 juiced up some shops even going to four.
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Well, good thing here is that a lot of smart money continue to
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pour in on Lamar. Lamar is now up to -4 1/2, some
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books even up to five. Now this was the money line
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played for me earlier today. I got Lamar on the money line
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-166 now you're looking as high as like -190 So as always,
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again, try to get these in a little bit earlier.
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But I do like the fact that this line continues to go to Lamar
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even though majority of public betters have nothing to do with
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this game. So it tells me it's really a
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smart money move. So again, if you're playing it
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now, I'm still going money line, try to get below -200 that
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should be available. But I really like the splits on
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this game because if you look at DraftKings, Lamar's getting 74%
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of spread bets, 96% of spread dollars.
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However, that's not 74% public. It's a tiny little game.
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Therefore that's 74%. It's not really the public
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playing Lamar. It's more of majority of tickets
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that are most likely coming from wise guys who have targeted the
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game and are playing the game. The other angle here would be
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Ken Palm. Now Ken Palm has Lamar winning
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by 5 points. So even if you played the spread
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earlier and got -3 1/2, you like that.
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Again, Ken Palms got him by 5. But again, these games can be
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crazy. There can be a meaningless 3
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pointer late just to protect yourself.
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I like to go money line and short favorites.
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But he also does have Lamar ranked higher.
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Ranked 216 in the country versus 2:45 for Northwestern State.
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And Lamar also has the better defensive efficiency.
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Big edge here. They rank 144th in the country
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versus 221st for Northwestern State.
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Also an edge 3 point shooting, 36% versus 32%, as well as an
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edge at the free throw stripe, 70% versus 68%.
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Of course, home Rd. always important to me, especially in
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college you talk about all the time, but getting that homecourt
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behind you is definitely meaningful.
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Makes it harder to go on the road, especially if you're a
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young kid not used to it. But in this spot, good edge here
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in favor of Lamar. You have Lamar six and three at
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home this year versus Northwestern State, 3:00 and
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7:00 on the road. And then of course, looking at
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the projection here from our friends at Rhythm Notice Lamar
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they have predicted or a model here, play of Lamar -4.7.
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So again, line move quite a bit toward Lamar.
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I'm loving it because I bet this game earlier and got a better
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price. Again, if you're playing it
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right now, you are definitely with a sharp move.
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You're just having to pay a little bit more, which again,
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gift and a curse. Sharp bet.
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But hey, it's a little bit more expensive, so I got Lamar -166
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on the money line. Again, if you're playing it
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right now, you're looking at around -190 another low bet
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added obscure game. Texas Southern and Alabama State
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8:30 PM game here. For tonight, we have Texas
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Southern coming in eight and 11 on the year, but they are riding
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A5 game-winning streak. Just took down Alabama A&M 82 to
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78 and overtime. Did not cover, however, as a 5
9:01
point Rd. favorite. On the other hand, Alabama
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State, they have won two straight.
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Just took down Prairie View 66 to 63 Did not cover though as a
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7 1/2 point home favorite. So what have we seen across the
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market here? Well, this game opened Alabama
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State listed as a 2 1/2 point home favorite.
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And I noticed early on Alabama State was getting juiced up -2
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1/2 - 115. And I really like the the bet
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splits toward Alabama State like at the time they didn't really
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move to three that many books, but they were getting juiced up.
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And I noticed that DraftKings, again, low bet, added obscure
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game that Alabama State was getting 66% of spread bets, 97%
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of spread dollars. Also noticed that Ken Palm had
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Alabama State winning by three points.
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So this wasn't a huge line move play for me, but I like that bet
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split. They're getting juiced up a bit.
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So I put in a money line play on Alabama State at -134 now gift
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and a curse. Great thing here.
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This lines continued to go in favor of Alabama State
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throughout the afternoon. When I wrote about them earlier
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today, they were -2 1/2 juiced up.
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Now they're up to -4 So I love the fact that we're getting some
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CLV here. However, if you're playing them
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now, you're looking at closer to a you know -170 -, 180.
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But a couple things still to like about Alabama State.
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Again, low bet, obscure, sharp line move, great bet split.
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Ken Palms got a winning by three.
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Our friends at Rhythm have Alabama State -3.7.
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So again, good angle here to bet Alabama State, hopefully to at
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least just win this game. Now Ken Palm has Alabama State
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ranked higher 283 in the country versus 298 for Texas Southern.
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And then also all the Alabama State better offensive
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efficiency. 225 in the country may not sound great, but we're
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going up against Texas Southern, one of the worst offensive
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efficiency teams in college. They ranked 342 effective field
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goal percentage advantage for Alabama State, 48% versus 45%.
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And a big one for me. Take care of the ball.
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How frustrating is it when a team you bet on keeps coughing
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it up, keeps turning it over? Well, luckily Alabama State does
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a pretty good job, their 10th in the country and turnover
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percentage. Texas Southern turns it over a
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lot. They ranked 265.
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Lastly, we have Alabama State 5 and O at home this year.
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Texas Southern 2:00 and 9:00 on the road.
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So this lines continue to move toward Alabama State.
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Good sign if you targeted them early.
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Obviously this line is ticked up, but for good reason.
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Tells me pros are with us on this one.
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So let's go Alabama State to win this game.
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I got them on the money line -134 again.
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Now they're as high as around -170 -, 180 Now the big one
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tonight, the most heavily back game of the night also happens
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to be one of the top sharp contrarian plays around Iowa
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State in Arizona. 10:30 tonight on ESPN.
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Now Iowa State comes in one of the best teams in the country,
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17 and 2 ranked third overall. They've won two in a row.
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Just took down Arizona State 76 to 61, covered as a nine and a
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half point Rd. favorite. Meanwhile, Arizona 13 and six on
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the year. They've also won two straight,
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just took down Colorado 78 to 63.
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They did cover as a 14 1/2 point home favorite.
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So the first thing you might have picked up on is that Iowa
12:14
State is really good and ranked and Arizona, yes, they have a
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decent record, but they're not ranked.
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So Iowa State's favorite here, right?
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The lines going to Iowa State. No, the line is going toward
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Arizona and Arizona is favored when my favorite system matches
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of all time. You guys know it.
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Unranked home favors ranked opponent.
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Let's just talk about this line move first.
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This game open Iowa State -1 on the road.
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Now, right off the bat, that opening line speaks volumes.
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Yes, you would assume Iowa State would be favored because they're
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much better ranking and better, better one loss record.
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But only -1 on the road seems kind of fishy, kind of really
12:50
low there. Now the public, they're saying,
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give me Iowa State all day. Again, third team in the
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country. It's all you got to know against
12:58
an unranked team. So nearly 80% of spread bets at
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DraftKings are going Iowa State, hammering Iowa State.
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Yet despite 8 out of 10 bets going Cyclones, this line is
13:08
flipped dog to fave in favor of Arizona.
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Arizona went from getting a point plus one at home now all
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the way to -2 1/2 at home. So a massive dog to fave reverse
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line move. It's the most heavily bet game
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of the night and everybody's playing Iowa State.
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Even if you don't have this sharp line move, this would just
13:25
be a notable contrarian play on Arizona.
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But I love the fact that Publix Iowa State, yet lines going to
13:31
Arizona tells me you got some great sharp movement here in
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favor of the Wildcats. Now Arizona only getting around
13:38
25% of bets, but over 50% of dollars, circa 61% of bets, 83%
13:45
of dollars. So public DraftKings, public
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book, big National Book, everyone's playing Iowa State
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out in Vegas at Circa caters to sharper betters.
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The sharps are a little bit heavier there on Arizona.
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Of course, I'm not going to lay a 2 1/2, have Arizona win by one
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or two at the buzzer or maybe they're up, you know, four and
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Iowa State hits a three there at the end to make it a one point
14:06
game. Haven't we seen many of those?
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So this is a money line play for me now.
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I got Arizona -128 on the money line earlier today.
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It's not that far off. It's around -140 now at this
14:16
point. But some advantages here or
14:19
hopefully some good signs for Arizona.
14:22
You mentioned the of course buy low unranked home favorite,
14:25
first ranked opponent, but in particular on the money line,
14:29
Arizona 30% bets 57% dollars at DraftKings and if you look over
14:34
at Circa, 67% bets 85% dollars at Circa.
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So again tells me that we have a lot of smart money not only
14:42
backing Arizona to cover the number, but to win the game,
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which is more important to me because I am playing Arizona
14:48
money line. Now, you look at Home Rd.
14:51
obviously Iowa State's a great team.
14:53
They do have a winning record on the road.
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But if you look at Arizona, they started the season, I believe
14:58
they're four and five. They're nine and one at home and
15:02
they're nine and one over their last 10 games.
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So maybe this is just a spot where hey, Iowa State, you know,
15:08
highly rated team, but maybe it's just a good angle or a good
15:11
situational spot for Arizona, which is why, again, the Sharps
15:14
keep hitting the Wildcats. But again, we open Iowa State,
15:18
the third ranked team in the country, as a one point Rd.
15:20
favorite. Now the books are giving you 2
15:23
1/2 to play Iowa State. When I was new to sports
15:25
betting, guys, this would be a, you know, double down, triple
15:28
down all day on Iowa State. You're the books got the wrong
15:30
team favored. But if you bet sports long
15:32
enough, you kind of realize that, hey, if it's fishy, if it
15:35
doesn't make sense, there's typically a reason for it.
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So I'm going to go with this sharp fishy reverse line move.
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I love the dog to fave split. This is the epitome of sharp
15:43
contrarian. This one's so, so sharp.
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I cut my finger on it, putting it in the app earlier today,
15:48
bleeding all over my my iPhone. That's obviously a joke, but
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Arizona is very sharp. And that's where I'm going.
15:54
Give me Arizona to win the game again.
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I got -128 money line. Now you're looking at around
16:00
-140 I will mention rhythm has Arizona -2.8, which is nice to
16:06
see. So Lamar, Alabama State,
16:09
Arizona, all money line. Can we find a way to get two out
16:12
of three? So let's talk about the Super
16:15
Bowl because sadly, there's only one NFL game to bet on for the
16:20
rest of the season. And then we got a long layoff
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and I'm sure we'll bet on the NFL draft.
16:23
But we do have one big game. And I want to say a few things
16:27
about this because I always have thoughts when we get to Super
16:29
Bowl time. And there are a couple things
16:30
that I've learned over time that have helped me and I've learned
16:34
through trial and error, but I think can be a benefit to you,
16:37
especially if you are relatively new to betting Super Bowls or
16:40
just betting sports in general. The first thing I'll say about
16:43
the Super Bowl, it's a very long two weeks.
16:45
So the first week feels like it goes forever.
16:48
The second week kind of feels like it goes quickly.
16:51
But I would just try to practice as much patience as you possibly
16:54
can. Because once the Super Bowl
16:56
lines come out, you know, obviously we have chiefs -1 1/2
17:00
Philly right here would be a great teaser play just
17:04
automatically thinking 1 1/2 to 7 1/2.
17:06
And we have a very high total 49 1/2.
17:09
So I know there's prop bets out there.
17:12
You feel like you want to play everything.
17:14
Give it some time. There's no, there's never
17:15
anything wrong with letting the dust settle.
17:17
And also remember, you know, sharps might be hitting this
17:19
game early, but the public really isn't betting this game.
17:22
They're going to wait typically until next week and really the
17:25
last few days leading up to the Super Bowl.
17:28
With that being said, I have some early thoughts here.
17:31
So first thing I want to mention is dogs and favorites in the
17:34
Super Bowl. Now, overall trends last 21
17:38
years. My database goes back since
17:40
2004. Over the last 21 years, Super
17:44
Bowl dogs have done well. Fourteen and seven against the
17:46
spread 67%. Now it's a little bit misleading
17:50
a bit because the Chiefs were +2 against San Fran last year and
17:54
the Chiefs were plus one and half against Philly couple years
17:56
ago. So you know, obviously Casey's
17:59
in this game and they're favored, but they really
18:01
benefited and helped to continue to build this dog stat here.
18:05
If you look at Super Bowl favorites, straight up 11 and
18:08
10. So again, you have seen
18:10
historically dogs do well and it's kind of 5050 in terms of
18:13
who wins the game. Now let's look at this bet
18:16
splits early. And I do want to also say take
18:19
these bet splits with a grain of salt because it is so early in
18:22
the process that they could really change between now and
18:25
kick off obviously in New Orleans on February 9th.
18:28
So the first thing we're looking, let's look at
18:30
DraftKings right now. Right now, 62% of spread bets,
18:34
55% of spread dollars on Kansas City.
18:37
Now flip it the other way. Philly's getting 38 percent, 45%
18:40
dollars. That looks actually a little bit
18:42
better for Philly. We go to Circa Circa right now
18:46
Chiefs are getting 64% of spread bets, but 81% of spread dollars.
18:52
So basically the splits of DraftKings look a little bit
18:54
sharp contrarian for Philly. But Circa, which again, I got to
18:58
respect because they are a book that does not, you know, kind of
19:02
turn away smart money. They accept it, which I think is
19:04
smart. But there's 64%, that's 81%
19:08
dollars. Kansas City.
19:10
So basically my first thought is, hey, you know, Casey looks
19:13
sharp at Circa. DraftKings looks a little bit
19:16
good for Philly. Then let's look at the money
19:19
line because there can be a difference, of course, when it's
19:22
a very short number, you know, money line versus spread.
19:25
Now, if you look right now at DraftKings on the money line,
19:29
48% bets, 50% dollars. On Kansas City at circa 56%
19:34
bets, 61% dollars. So relatively even.
19:37
Nothing huge there either way. But now let's dig into a couple
19:41
other things. One, Patrick Mahomes, We've
19:44
gotten to a point here, guys. Again, I was lucky enough to be
19:48
born and raised during the Tom Brady era.
19:50
I remember I was 13 years old in 2001 when Tom Brady started the
19:55
dynasty, and over time I learned to love Brady, of course, but
19:58
never bet against Brady. And I think that Mahomes are at
20:01
the same level here. Don't bet against Brady, don't
20:04
bet against Mahomes. Now I know that is a obvious
20:06
somewhat public sentiment, which does scare me a bit, but the
20:10
proof is in the pudding. I told you guys the anecdote
20:12
last week. Going into this week or going
20:15
into Sunday's games where I played KC, I liked them because
20:19
they were sharp. Public was Buffalo, Lyman was
20:21
going to KC. It came back a little bit.
20:23
Late, but a lot of my handicap was, hey, I learned to never bet
20:27
against Kansas City by betting against them in the Super Bowl
20:30
with Philly a couple years ago and I lost that bet and I said
20:33
I'm never going to do it again. Since that time I've been
20:36
rewarded with nothing but wins. So maybe, maybe Philly wins this
20:39
game here on Super Bowl Sunday. But since that declaration, I've
20:43
never bet against Mahomes came through for me.
20:46
Obviously yesterday came through against really a huge bet that I
20:50
made reputation wise and dollar figure with the Chiefs as a dog
20:55
against the 49ers in last year's Super Bowl.
20:58
And the stats prove it out. Mahomes as a favorite 95 and 22
21:02
straight up in his career, 81% regular season 82 and 19
21:08
postseason 13 and three. So my mind is very close to
21:14
being made-up that I'm going to be on Kansas City.
21:17
But because it's such a long stretch between now and Super
21:19
Bowl Sunday, I want to give it some time and make sure that I'm
21:23
not like clearly on the public plane going against the smart
21:26
money. So what do I mean by that?
21:28
You know, when we were talking Kansas City Buffalo throughout
21:30
the the week on the pod last week, I kept saying, hey, I'm
21:34
I'm going Kansas City here for reasons ABC and D, but I'm going
21:37
to wait it out and make sure that, you know, this doesn't get
21:40
down to a pick em or hop the fence and go to bills -1.
21:43
Well, for this reason, I'm going to kind of do the same thing I
21:46
could put in Kansas City money line right now.
21:48
That's most likely what I'm going to do, but I figure
21:51
between now and giving it another week or so, what if a
21:54
crazy injury occurs? What if something unforeseen
21:57
happens? You know, what if, what if, you
21:59
know a week from now? This is a Peckham and I money
22:02
line Kansas City at let's say -125 when they're down to -110
22:08
So partly is that I want to wait out the smart money and not make
22:11
sure I'm not against the smart money.
22:13
I'm looking forward to see what Billy Walters says.
22:15
I remember last year when I was in Vegas for the Super Bowl,
22:19
Billy Walters got I didn't interview him by some get
22:22
interviewed I think was by the Super book.
22:24
And he said, you know, I make Kansas City A2 point favorite
22:26
when they are two point dog in the market.
22:28
And he said I give the edge with coaching quarterback and the
22:31
kicker. Now, you know, what's the
22:33
advantage here against Philadelphia?
22:35
We shall see. The whole point being is I want
22:38
to make sure I get the best price and whether I bet them
22:40
-125 or -130 like, let's say this gets to two 2 1/2 and I
22:45
miss it a little bit. Hey, it's not that that big of a
22:48
deal to me. So I'm not betting against
22:50
Mahomes and I will most likely be on KC money line.
22:54
Now, if you tell me you like Philly, I think it's a great
22:57
teaser play. I think this is very similar and
23:00
the numbers almost exactly the same as the Bills game against
23:03
Philly against Kansas City yesterday.
23:05
So if you're playing Philly and you want to take plus 1 1/2,
23:08
hey, I give you a lot of credit there, but I think the smarter
23:13
place to tease them up 1 1/2 up to seven, half the way you go
23:17
through a couple key numbers. And remember last game they
23:19
played, it was 38 to 35, which again went way over the total in
23:23
terms of the total. Now pretty much 49 1/2 hasn't
23:26
moved a ton. Some books did go up a little
23:28
bit, 49 to 49 1/2. You're getting over 80% of bets
23:33
and dollars at both DraftKings and Circa on that over.
23:35
So we'll see how that develops. But Long story short, to me,
23:40
this is another die on the hill of Patrick Mahomes play.
23:43
I haven't bet it yet for the reasons that I explained.
23:46
I want to make sure there's no smart money going against me.
23:48
I want to hopefully get the best money line price, but I'm 99.99%
23:53
gonna go Kansas City money line. Now, I wanted to mention some
23:57
Super Bowl props because I think when you get to the Super Bowl,
24:01
obviously prop betting explodes. Get the crazy ones like, you
24:04
know, the length of the national anthem, the color of the
24:06
Gatorade that gets dumped on the coach.
24:08
I mean, you got all these, you know, the halftime Kendrick
24:11
Lamar and what, what will be his first song.
24:13
You know, some jurisdictions allow quote UN quote novelty
24:16
bets, some don't. But let's stick to player props.
24:19
Obviously, we are lucky enough to have rhythm with some great
24:22
predictions and models that we can lean on.
24:24
Oh, oh, I forgot this. I wanted to mention this.
24:27
I have two rhythm models. And again, this is important to
24:32
me in terms of the big game. One is chiefs -2.8, another one
24:37
is chiefs -5 so the five is high.
24:40
I get that that's aggressive. Maybe you want to toss that out,
24:43
but Rhythms got a 2.8 and a three and A and A5 in favor of
24:46
Kansas City. So that's another reason why I'm
24:48
going to most likely definitely go Kansas City money line.
24:52
But anyway, back to the props. I want to mention this because I
24:54
think it's important #1 the Super Bowl props can move quite
25:00
a bit. There's a day called
25:01
Propapalooza. Usually it's the Thursday.
25:04
It'll probably be this Thursday, I would assume, when all the
25:06
props are unveiled out in Vegas and you can go bet them and
25:10
really wise guys are lined up and ready to go.
25:12
So often times you're going to see numbers move quite a bit.
25:15
Like unless you get it early, it could move a lot.
25:17
And then it's the question of do I want to buy low and go the
25:20
other way? Like let's say, you know,
25:22
Patrick Mahomes, you know, rushing yardage.
25:25
I forgot what I saw in the market.
25:26
Let's just say it's 30 five, maybe it get gets bit up to 40.
25:30
Do you really want to go 40 over?
25:32
Yes, you're with the smart money, but you're getting the
25:34
worst of it. Do you want to buy low and go
25:35
under 40? These are just the things you
25:37
got to think about. If you don't get it early,
25:39
chances are you want to kind of buy low, sell high in terms of
25:42
the big line move. But the biggest thing that I
25:44
want to mention in terms of Super Bowl prop betting is not
25:48
focusing OnStar players, focusing on supplementary
25:51
players. So we all know that Travis
25:53
Kelsey is going to get a ton of betting.
25:55
A.J. Brown, Saquon Barkley, Mahomes,
25:58
Jalen Hurts, you know, Devonta Smith, some of these.
26:01
Obviously the big guys are going to get a ton of action, a ton of
26:03
love. Those are really so however, if
26:06
you're betting these guys to go over, you're kind of getting the
26:09
you're kind of getting inflated line, you know, shaded numbers
26:12
and often times the books of course know that they're going
26:15
to get hammered with all these star player overs.
26:17
So they set these numbers a little bit high.
26:19
Again, you're kind of betting into bad prices.
26:21
I've learned over time to target these lesser known players.
26:24
It's been treated me pretty decent over the years.
26:27
So 1 is that these lesser known guys are harder to set in terms
26:31
of their numbers because the usage and you know, obviously
26:34
the targets and you know, the matchups can be a little bit
26:37
harder to set in terms of player prop lines.
26:40
So therefore creates an edge for us betters to hopefully
26:42
capitalize on maybe some mispriced numbers.
26:45
So I came up with three. I haven't bet them yet, but they
26:48
just caught my eye and it kind of just is a launching off point
26:51
as we get started in the long two week, two week March here to
26:55
the Super Bowl with three supplementary guys.
26:57
They happen to all be Chiefs players, but they look
27:01
intriguing to me and they have good rhythm edges.
27:04
So the first one, Juju Smith, Schuster over 13 1/2 receiving
27:09
yards. Now rhythm has been predicted to
27:12
finish with 17.6. So about a four yard edge there.
27:16
He had 60 yards against Buffalo. His last Super Bowl against
27:20
Philly couple years ago, he had 7 catches for 53 yards.
27:24
So he's got some experience and he's got a good rhythm, good
27:29
rhythm edge here. And again he gets you one pass
27:31
for 14 yards. You can.
27:32
You can hit that in one fell swoop.
27:34
So you know, going in the Super Bowl is Juju Smith Schuster
27:37
going to be one of the top five most bet props to his over.
27:40
I doubt it. But lesser known guy, shorter
27:43
number Rhythm edge. That one, that one caught my eye
27:46
early. The next one that caught my eye
27:48
is Xavier Worthy, but not his receiving yards, rushing yards
27:52
over 4 1/2 rushing yards. Now Rhythm is predicting 5.7.
27:57
So it's only about a yard. You know, 1.2 yard edge.
28:01
But he had 16 against Buffalo. He's gone over 4 1/2 rushing
28:05
yards in seven of his last nine games.
28:07
And with all those big hogs in the middle, Jalen Carter, who's
28:11
the other guy? Davis, I could just see a jet
28:14
sweep to Xavier Worthy. They seem to like to run that
28:17
play to just get him on the outside, get him on the
28:19
perimeter and cut it up. So that one jumped out to me.
28:23
You know, Worthy is probably going to be an anytime touchdown
28:26
favorite. He's going to be an over
28:27
receiving yardage. But his rushing jumped out to me
28:31
just here early. And then the last one, which
28:35
cashed on the very last player. They're not the very last they
28:38
kneeled, kneeled down. But Sama JP Ryan over 6 1/2
28:42
receiving yards. He had 17 against Buffalo, was
28:46
the last play of the game to ice the game.
28:48
But he's gone over six and half receiving yards in nine of his
28:50
last 10 games. And Rhythm is predicting Sama JP
28:53
Ryan 14 receiving yards in the Super Bowl.
28:57
So these are low numbers. You know, you don't go to the
29:00
bathroom, don't get a another another thing of popcorn during
29:04
the Super Bowl because you miss a play number one.
29:05
You don't want to miss the commercials.
29:06
They're typically pretty good, but you could miss the one play
29:09
to P Ryan 8 yard, you know, dump off pass that could cash you
29:13
that ticket. So again, everyone, your
29:16
buddies, your friends, your colleagues, they're going to
29:18
play these Saquon, Kelsey, A.J. Brown Hertz, you know, Mahomes.
29:24
I think the money to be made here is guys like Juju worthy
29:27
rushing P Ryan lesser known guys that again aren't going to get
29:30
the public love. But hopefully with these rhythm
29:32
edges can cash for us. So just my thoughts here early,
29:36
early, early, very early in the process.
29:40
So that about does it guys. Another pod here in the books
29:43
talk to college hoops talk some NFL getting ready for the Super
29:46
Bowl. But this is the part of the pod
29:48
where we wrap things up and we start start first by thanking
29:52
you. Thank you for taking the time
29:54
out of your busy lives to devote 30 minutes or so listen in a
29:57
sharp contrarian breakdowns. Hopefully the insights you feel
30:01
are valuable and hopefully you know, win, lose or draw or been
30:04
based on data, money, percentages, splits, dollars.
30:09
Not opinion, not bias. With that being said, if you do
30:12
enjoy the pod, and I would think if you're listening to my voice,
30:14
unless you're hate listening, which that's OK too, I assume
30:18
you kind of like it. And if that's the case, could
30:20
you please do me a solid give this podcast a five star review
30:24
on either Spotify or iTunes. It would mean a lot.
30:26
If you want to click the follow button, that would be great.
30:29
That way it goes right to your library right as soon as it
30:32
drops each day. And also if you want to
30:33
recommend it to a friend, word of mouth is always great to help
30:36
us grow the pod. Secondly, if you enjoy the style
30:40
of betting breakdown, data-driven, sharp contrarian
30:42
betting, you find the insights intriguing.
30:44
You've been turned on to line movement and bet splits and
30:47
system matches, money lining, short home favorites.
30:50
Hey, whatever the case may be, if you want to learn more about
30:53
data-driven betting, you want to let me know you appreciate the
30:56
pod, Do me another solid and buy my book.
30:59
Support the team, give it to a friend, that buddy of yours that
31:01
parlays everything. It's got everything I've learned
31:04
in the industry. All you got to do is go to
31:05
Amazon.com, type in the Everything Guide to Sports
31:08
betting. Pick up a copy for you or a
31:10
friend. How lines are set, how and why
31:13
they move, how to read line movement, how to locate sharp
31:15
action, how to place the bet in person or online, how to shop
31:17
for the best line, how to set up a bankroll management plan.
31:20
How to go contrarian. All included in the Everything
31:23
Guide to Sports Betting. So grab one, bring it to the
31:25
book, I'll sign it for you and I'll buy you a beer or ginger
31:28
ale. We'll sweat some games together
31:30
next. Have you taken advantage of a 7
31:33
day free trial of Juice Reel or Rhythm yet?
31:35
Well, if you haven't, go download both apps.
31:38
Rhythm is great for their AI backed models and predictions
31:40
for best bets and of course player props.
31:43
And then we have Juice Reel where you can follow all the ASG
31:47
podcast best bets, which if you got them earlier today, you got
31:51
some good CLV on these college games.
31:54
But either way, you can get the Robo Jackson best bet picks.
31:57
You can follow the all systems go best bets from the social tab
32:00
for $4.99 a week. That's less than a dollar a day
32:04
cup of coffee. And then you can also get the
32:07
arbitrage plays sharp mush indicators as well as bets and
32:10
dollars and breakdowns and futures shopping for the best
32:13
future price always beneficial with juice real as well.
32:17
Next, of course, we're going to leave you with a couple things.
32:20
One, whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin
32:23
River in Rhode Island, Brook in New Hampshire, Foxwoods or
32:26
Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut at the Encore in Boston, or
32:29
Plain Ridge Park Casino or MGM Springfield in my neck of the
32:32
woods in Massachusetts. Route in the desert where the
32:35
true grinders get down. Or Billy Walters sends his
32:37
number runners where the lowest use possible is found at the
32:39
South Point. Or sweat and Sharp Contrary and
32:41
plays jumping in the stadium swimming pool.
32:43
When you cash a big ticket at Circa, wherever it may be,
32:46
you're going to show me if you if you read the sharp report,
32:49
Houston, K State and Mizzou on Saturday, nice little sweep.
32:53
Of course you're going to show me a Kansas City Chiefs ticket.
32:56
What did you guys think was the the coming up short on the on
33:00
the tush Bush or the interception slash catch?
33:03
Were those were those to the the refs helping the Chiefs?
33:06
Well, here's another thing I don't get.
33:07
If you're one of those people that thinks it's rigged, which
33:10
it's not, but if you think it's rigged and you think it's rigged
33:13
in favor of Kansas City, then why don't you just buy Kansas
33:15
City every time? It just makes no sense to me.
33:18
But either way, guys, bring one of those tickets, Kansas City,
33:23
of course, to to the book and we'll all sweat some sharp and
33:26
train plays together and we'll catch some tickets.
33:30
As always, winning, losing, hot, cold up down process never
33:34
changes. Don't inject your bias.
33:37
Don't get down on yourself when you're struggling.
33:39
Don't get cocky and arrogant when you're doing well.
33:41
You're never as hot as you think when you're hot.
33:43
You're never as cold as you think when you're cold, they're
33:45
always somewhere in the middle. And if we can find that sweet
33:47
spot, games that fit our model against the public with the
33:50
house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays, get that CLV.
33:54
If we can do that long term, we're going to be successful
33:56
sports betters. So have a great money on
33:59
everybody. We got some great college hoops
34:01
tonight. See if we get 2 out of three.
34:03
And then of course, welcome to the long two week journey now
34:07
until the Super Bowl. I remember, I remember my
34:10
Patriots were in this game. Those were the days.
34:13
It's probably gonna be quite a long while until we get back
34:15
there. But of course, guys, have a
34:17
great night. Good luck, and I'll see you
34:19
tomorrow for episode 207 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting
34:22
podcast powered by Rhythm. Good luck everybody.
34:26
Have a great Monday night.