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The Favorites - NFL Best Bets Week 11 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BED three
0:12
Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.
0:15
Speaker 1: I'm Chad Millman of the Action Network. I'm live from
0:19
Speaker 1: my remote Tommy john Home studio. Listeners may know last
0:25
Speaker 1: night went to Bulls Knicks at MSG and exciting Bulls
0:30
Speaker 1: last second win. They covered the eight and a half.
0:34
Speaker 1: The Milman Boys went home happy. I'm joined as always
0:38
Speaker 1: by my co host, my companion Mike and Padre might
0:40
Speaker 1: beff professional better Sigmon Hunter. Hello, So I'm in Chad.
0:45
Speaker 2: What a great day today, a good football day. It's
0:47
Speaker 2: gonna be forty degrees tonight in Philly for this playoff
0:50
Speaker 2: matchup between the Commanders. I'm so jealous, as you.
0:53
Speaker 1: Know, yes, because I am on night two of the
0:56
Speaker 1: Milman Sportacular. Last night me and my son both Knicks
1:02
Speaker 1: at MSG. Tonight we're going down to Philly. We'll go
1:06
Speaker 1: to dinner with my older son at Drexel and then
1:09
Speaker 1: we will go to Eagles Commanders. I'm a little worried.
1:14
Speaker 1: It's gonna be colder than I thought. I'm not sure
1:16
Speaker 1: I brought the right coat. I'm gonna have to rally.
1:18
Speaker 1: I wear my Drexel hoodie.
1:20
Speaker 2: But dude, I can warm you up. I got I'm
1:23
Speaker 2: a big coming for the tailgate brother. I'm thinking about it.
1:27
Speaker 2: I'm tempted.
1:28
Speaker 1: Dude. If you do, we can discuss offline. Yeah, hey,
1:31
Speaker 1: listen that it was a very interesting story. I want
1:36
Speaker 1: to talk about something that I read in the Wall
1:38
Speaker 1: Street Journal yesterday. Yeah, because we've talked about like the
1:43
Speaker 1: challenges that everybody has faced as better as this year,
1:46
Speaker 1: the public and the favorites have been winning so much so.
1:48
Speaker 1: This week and the last week is earnings weeks for
1:52
Speaker 1: a lot of publicly traded companies, where they are reporting
1:55
Speaker 1: how they've done in the previous quarter, in this case,
1:57
Speaker 1: usually the third quarter. That includes the sports betting operators
2:01
Speaker 1: and two of the largest in the United States. I'm
2:03
Speaker 1: not going to name them, but everyone knows who they are.
2:05
Speaker 1: They both reported in their most recent earnings calls over
2:08
Speaker 1: the past two weeks they've had to reduce their revenue
2:11
Speaker 1: expectations for the rest of twenty twenty four because of
2:15
Speaker 1: what one of them called euphemistically customer friendly outcomes, which
2:21
Speaker 1: is a very nice way of saying the public has
2:24
Speaker 1: been crushing it this year because favorites have been covering
2:29
Speaker 1: at an extraordinary clips, so much that has cost operators
2:34
Speaker 1: literally hundreds of millions of dollars. One of them reported
2:39
Speaker 1: revenue would be reduced by about two hundred and fifty million,
2:42
Speaker 1: the other by about fifty million. To put a finer
2:46
Speaker 1: point on it, during the week of Halloween, the industry's
2:50
Speaker 1: hold rate, which is essentially what they earn after payouts,
2:55
Speaker 1: was just two percent, normally closer to ten percent. If
3:00
Speaker 1: that gives you a real, real fine point on how
3:05
Speaker 1: much the public has been winning this year. We've talked
3:08
Speaker 1: about it a lot. It doesn't always get discussed like
3:11
Speaker 1: in our business. A lot of professional betters like to
3:14
Speaker 1: be on the side of these books, right the books
3:17
Speaker 1: and the betters like to root for underdogs. They like
3:21
Speaker 1: to bet underdogs. The books will make their money when
3:24
Speaker 1: underdogs win. Pros historically are playing dogs. Books historically like
3:30
Speaker 1: it when favorites loose. So all of that has made
3:33
Speaker 1: for a fascinating year. Some of the publicly traded operators
3:38
Speaker 1: laid bare with earnings this week. I don't know if
3:40
Speaker 1: you have thoughts on that. As someone who is a
3:42
Speaker 1: professional better I know. Look, we've had tremendous success and
3:48
Speaker 1: my philosophy, I know this has always been identify where
3:52
Speaker 1: I think the public markets are going to be overinflated,
3:58
Speaker 1: and then play the other side, and then look for
4:01
Speaker 1: the opportunities to play underdogs. Obviously there's been much more
4:04
Speaker 1: challenging this year. What are your thoughts on all this?
4:07
Speaker 2: What I love about this story is it's these two
4:10
Speaker 2: books kind of thought that they reinvented the wheel and
4:13
Speaker 2: they banned professional betters quick There are some of the
4:16
Speaker 2: quickest bands I've ever seen through these books we're talking about.
4:19
Speaker 2: Their number wouldn't be as negative as it is if
4:21
Speaker 2: they would take professional money. So these guys are really
4:24
Speaker 2: stuck in their ways right now and we all know that.
4:26
Speaker 2: So maybe this won't help change it right now, but
4:28
Speaker 2: I do think down the road they'll learn from these lessons.
4:31
Speaker 2: That was my biggest takeaway from it.
4:33
Speaker 1: Yeah, look, you're totally right. Getting banned is a massive
4:36
Speaker 1: issue for professional betters, and it's a constant conversation and
4:39
Speaker 1: topic for people who are in the community. Nate Silver
4:43
Speaker 1: actually wrote a book this summer that came out this
4:45
Speaker 1: summer called on the Edge, and he has a chat
4:47
Speaker 1: it's all about sort of the art of risking everything.
4:50
Speaker 1: It's a phenomenal book. I freaking loved it, and sports
4:56
Speaker 1: betting is a very small part of it. But he
4:59
Speaker 1: did write sensively about how quickly operators ban anyone they
5:05
Speaker 1: think is an advantage player that they quickly identify as
5:09
Speaker 1: everybody knows. I wrote a best selling book called The
5:12
Speaker 1: Odds about the life of professional betters in Vegas. Chad
5:16
Speaker 1: Milman wrote a book and the inner play they have
5:20
Speaker 1: with operators and how that is a symbiotic relationship and
5:24
Speaker 1: what the betters get out of it in terms of
5:26
Speaker 1: first crack at lines and what the operators get out
5:29
Speaker 1: of it. Back then, they weren't operators, they were just
5:31
Speaker 1: book makers. By letting people pound the lines into shape,
5:34
Speaker 1: and the risk that everyone is willing to take, and
5:37
Speaker 1: they're communicating with each other, they're leaning on each other,
5:39
Speaker 1: they're learning from each other. That sort of relationship I
5:43
Speaker 1: think is diminished. But listen, let's get to some freaking
5:47
Speaker 1: games today. As our NFL Week eleven Best Bets episode,
5:50
Speaker 1: Simon and I will narrow down our five picks and
5:53
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Speaker 1: bet of the week. We're going to discuss Simon's biggest
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Speaker 1: so much more bets rolling in line, the lines, removing
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Speaker 1: restriction is a plaque. All right, it's Thursday. This is
7:08
Speaker 1: when we like to hear how the wise guys are
7:11
Speaker 1: responding to our Tuesday conversation. We move lines. The pros
7:17
Speaker 1: feel compelled to weigh in on what we're saying. Simon,
7:22
Speaker 1: let's do shop call.
7:27
Speaker 2: Hello, who's there. I'm talking rain range telephone range. Somebody said,
7:34
Speaker 2: maybe want to do in Yeah, let's start with the
7:37
Speaker 2: lines that we disagree on. So off the top, the
7:41
Speaker 2: professionals like the Bears. I like Green Bay. I mean,
7:44
Speaker 2: I don't know if you want to dive into that
7:45
Speaker 2: game more.
7:45
Speaker 1: But I just don't know for sure.
7:47
Speaker 2: I don't agree what they're saying about this Bears team.
7:49
Speaker 2: I think they're kind of missing it here. And all
7:52
Speaker 2: the trends as well point to Green Bay and taking
7:54
Speaker 2: them in this spot. So interesting. They love that one Cleveland.
7:58
Speaker 2: That's another number that you know I talked about. Gave
8:00
Speaker 2: it out of three to two and a half sharpest
8:03
Speaker 2: number of the week. Apparently that's all the way down
8:04
Speaker 2: to them minus one now for Cleveland, so clearly they
8:08
Speaker 2: love it. I've missed this one. I was gonna end
8:10
Speaker 2: up being on the Saints, and now I have to
8:12
Speaker 2: be on the Saints. Now this line's flipped. I hate
8:14
Speaker 2: this game. I didn't want to bet it. Now I
8:16
Speaker 2: have to bet it, unfortunately. But the pros they love
8:19
Speaker 2: that Cleveland side, which is really interested to me New
8:22
Speaker 2: England Patriots. I'm on the other side. I like the Rams.
8:24
Speaker 2: I know we're gonna talk about this one. I get
8:27
Speaker 2: their viewpoint of it. They like this Patriots defense. You
8:31
Speaker 2: have them at home against outdoor Stafford. I get their
8:34
Speaker 2: reasoning behind it. So I'm looking forward to us breaking
8:36
Speaker 2: down that one even more. And for the last one,
8:39
Speaker 2: we knew this was coming. Buffalo Bills. The professionals love
8:42
Speaker 2: the Bills. They love it, they love the number. They're
8:45
Speaker 2: just like most people think on this Chiefs team's a
8:47
Speaker 2: little overrated. They like this spot. Josh Allen at home.
8:50
Speaker 2: He is not scared of this Chiefs team. We've seen
8:53
Speaker 2: in his career. It's never honestly been his fault. Eve
8:56
Speaker 2: when you go back and watch a lot of those losses.
8:57
Speaker 2: This is never on Josh's either. Why she has a
9:00
Speaker 2: terrible drop, His defense can't stop anything. It's never really
9:03
Speaker 2: been his fault. So I get where they're coming from
9:06
Speaker 2: this one. I'm excited to break this down even more.
9:08
Speaker 2: But nothing changed for me on this one. I still
9:10
Speaker 2: love the Chiefs and we've seen that number go down
9:12
Speaker 2: now from two and a half to two of most books,
9:14
Speaker 2: so it seems like some professional money has been coming
9:17
Speaker 2: in on this Chiefs now that have kind of reached
9:19
Speaker 2: its peak value at two and a half. So yeah,
9:21
Speaker 2: just off the top, those are the ones we disagreed on.
9:23
Speaker 2: The games we like the same side. Chad Pittsburgh no
9:26
Speaker 2: brainer game we're gonna talk about more. Tennessee another game
9:28
Speaker 2: we'll talk about more, and then Detroit, which we talked
9:32
Speaker 2: on Tuesday. I know Chad didn't do it because he's
9:34
Speaker 2: a good guy, but I my personal contests far ours
9:37
Speaker 2: that I do. I locked in the twelve and a
9:38
Speaker 2: half on Detroit because I knew it was going up.
9:40
Speaker 2: Now it's up to thirteen and a half fourteen at
9:43
Speaker 2: most books. So there's a couple games I'm happy we're
9:45
Speaker 2: gonna be diving into.
9:47
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a fascinating board. I can't I do want
9:51
Speaker 1: to talk about that Cleveland game. I bet the Browns
9:54
Speaker 1: at one and a half. I just couldn't couldn't have
9:57
Speaker 1: resist it. Yeah, it just didn't make any sense me.
10:01
Speaker 1: One final order of business. I mentioned this on Tuesday.
10:04
Speaker 1: We are doing another Favorites live event. This is a
10:08
Speaker 1: watch party. We're still nailing down some of the final
10:11
Speaker 1: details that will be an RSVP page available, but what
10:15
Speaker 1: you need to know right now, we're doing it in Philly,
10:17
Speaker 1: the fighting city of Philadelphia. It's a home game for
10:21
Speaker 1: my bff, Simon Hunter. He's gonna get all of his
10:25
Speaker 1: compadres from Philly South Jersey to come out, but anybody
10:30
Speaker 1: is welcome to come. It's gonna be Thursday, December twelfth,
10:34
Speaker 1: great spot called the Wicked Wolf in Center City, Philadelphia.
10:39
Speaker 1: There's gonna be drinks, live Q and A with me
10:41
Speaker 1: and Simon. Matt Mitchell is gonna be there. It's gonna
10:46
Speaker 1: be in advance of the Thursday night football game for
10:49
Speaker 1: the Rams and the Niners. We're gonna have sort of
10:51
Speaker 1: a happy hour pregame, drinks and Q and A with
10:54
Speaker 1: me and Simon and Matt, and then we're all gonna
10:56
Speaker 1: hang out. We're gonna watch that Rams forty nine Ers
10:59
Speaker 1: game in a bet. Our faces off in Philly where
11:04
Speaker 1: it's legal. We're going to enjoy and we're all going
11:06
Speaker 1: to have a blast. Mark your calendars, start making plans.
11:10
Speaker 1: We'll let you know when to and where to RSVP.
11:13
Speaker 1: All right, Baltimore Pittsburgh. First game on the board, Steelers
11:17
Speaker 1: plus three. This was our Simon Sas Simon, I think
11:20
Speaker 1: there are real statistical matchup reasons for doing this. I
11:24
Speaker 1: think the Steelers offensive strength, especially running the ball, they
11:28
Speaker 1: are an advantage. I mean, the Steelers' offensive strengths throwing
11:32
Speaker 1: the ball recently are an advantage against the Ravens defensive
11:37
Speaker 1: weaknesses and vice versa. By the way, like the Raven's
11:41
Speaker 1: strength running the ball is an advantage against the Steelers defense.
11:44
Speaker 1: We're playing the percentages. We're playing the long term ROI.
11:51
Speaker 2: I love the false enthusiasm. I'm gonna see if we
11:53
Speaker 2: can make what do you guys quit today?
11:55
Speaker 1: When these teams are grossly uneven, it favors the underdog.
12:00
Speaker 1: I will go through every single stat the litany of facts,
12:06
Speaker 1: but I want to throw it to you first.
12:09
Speaker 2: Yeah, the biggest one to me, is definitely gonna be
12:12
Speaker 2: the fact that I don't think the books have accounted
12:14
Speaker 2: enough for Cayle Hamilton being out of this game. So
12:16
Speaker 2: we have a defense that's already suffering. Now you have
12:19
Speaker 2: arguably the best safety in all football, a guy who
12:22
Speaker 2: can play every spot in the field, a guy who
12:25
Speaker 2: he just can tell by the way the teams line
12:27
Speaker 2: up when he's gonna blitz or when he's gonna back
12:28
Speaker 2: on the coverage like he was incredible and you travel
12:31
Speaker 2: over the field. I just knew it was gonna come
12:33
Speaker 2: down as soon as I saw it that it was
12:34
Speaker 2: three and a half. It was just like, Okay, this
12:36
Speaker 2: will come down to three. And the books were gonna
12:39
Speaker 2: get a ton of public money and they haven't budged sht.
12:41
Speaker 2: Like I talked to a lot of book makers. It's
12:43
Speaker 2: all Ravend's money right now for the most part. I
12:45
Speaker 2: mean a lot of people have here taking the Steelers
12:47
Speaker 2: team in the money line, but we've seen it early
12:50
Speaker 2: here it's just been Raymonds money. So we obviously know
12:52
Speaker 2: the trends back it up here, but I just think
12:54
Speaker 2: the matchup on the field does as well. Somebody got
12:57
Speaker 2: to be all in for everybody to be all in.
13:00
Speaker 2: I've seen this team when the Ravens struggle with the
13:02
Speaker 2: deep ball. That's all Pittsburgh wants to do. They want
13:05
Speaker 2: to attack you downfield, they like they love anything above
13:08
Speaker 2: twenty yards. They want to attack you. And it all
13:10
Speaker 2: starts with the run game. So Arthur Smith knows that
13:12
Speaker 2: it's like, Okay, we'll run it down their throat. Eventually
13:15
Speaker 2: the linebackers will step up, they'll suck in, we'll get
13:18
Speaker 2: one on ones, especially across the middle, and that's what
13:20
Speaker 2: Russell Wilson has been great this season. So home dog Tomlin.
13:25
Speaker 2: We are already gonna love it. The fact that we're
13:27
Speaker 2: getting such a good number. It's still a three to me,
13:30
Speaker 2: it just makes it a no brainer. It's just a
13:32
Speaker 2: spot we can't avoid. We love these type of numbers
13:34
Speaker 2: in this type of spot.
13:36
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's every reality says, take the Steelers here. I
13:44
Speaker 1: always get nervous with this because how does this trend
13:48
Speaker 1: continue to hold. We've got a couple spots here where
13:52
Speaker 1: we are today, where we're going to just be leaning
13:56
Speaker 1: into what has historically happened, not overthinking, not letting our
14:00
Speaker 1: eyes deceive us, not trying to be smart, not saying
14:04
Speaker 1: this is going to be the time where it all
14:06
Speaker 1: falls apart. Last twenty years, the underdog in this series
14:09
Speaker 1: seventy four percent against the spread in the regular season
14:13
Speaker 1: when the line is three or more underdog twenty two
14:17
Speaker 1: four and three, underdog fifteen two and one against the
14:20
Speaker 1: spread since two thousand fifteen in the regular season underdog
14:25
Speaker 1: twenty three, six and three against the spread. When Mike
14:28
Speaker 1: Tomlin faces John Harbaugh Mike Tomlin twenty and fifteen straight up,
14:34
Speaker 1: eighteen teen, fourteen three against the spread versus John Harbaugh.
14:38
Speaker 2: I'm gonna cut you off because I laugh at that
14:41
Speaker 2: all the time, like that's what the hell we pay
14:44
Speaker 2: to do.
14:45
Speaker 1: So everything says Steelers, Steelers, Steelers. And by the way,
14:52
Speaker 1: if it was the other way, it would be Ravens Ravens.
14:55
Speaker 2: Yeah. That that has to do with Lamar two as
14:58
Speaker 2: a dog, right, Lamar is a Dog's the biggest one
15:00
Speaker 2: with that what you're talking about. So yeah, So we
15:03
Speaker 2: love both sides as dollars.
15:04
Speaker 1: We love both. We just love the dogs in this
15:06
Speaker 1: spot underdogs in the AFC North Divisional games. Thank you
15:09
Speaker 1: Evan Neighbors. By the way, for all these you got
15:11
Speaker 1: to check out his story that comes out on Wednesdays
15:14
Speaker 1: where he breaks down every game with these cool stats.
15:18
Speaker 1: Underdogs forty seven to thirty one against spread sixty percent
15:22
Speaker 1: since twenty eighteen. So book it, Steelers. We might get burned,
15:27
Speaker 1: obviously we think we could get burned here.
15:29
Speaker 2: But it's not one hundred percent success rate.
15:31
Speaker 1: Nothing is one hundred percent success rate. It's positive. Ev like,
15:38
Speaker 1: this is what we think is going to happen. And
15:40
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna overthink it on this, Like, I'm not
15:43
Speaker 1: gonna get crazy. We're just gonna play what we have
15:45
Speaker 1: always played. If this was Duck Hodges and the Steelers
15:49
Speaker 1: were plus three, I don't even think we'd be having
15:52
Speaker 1: a conversation. We'd one hundred percent be betting the Steelers.
15:55
Speaker 1: I think we'd be more more confident if the Steelers
15:58
Speaker 1: were actually.
16:00
Speaker 2: Yeah, and it's also in our contest is still three
16:03
Speaker 2: and a half. So it's just like, not only you're
16:05
Speaker 2: getting great value, you're getting a great number as well.
16:08
Speaker 1: Done Minnesota Tennessee. Tennessee's a six point dog here. Look
16:13
Speaker 1: the number says play the home dog. It's a defense
16:15
Speaker 1: whose strengths matchup to a you know, turning into a
16:20
Speaker 1: pumpkin quarterback. The trend say fade the road favorite with
16:25
Speaker 1: a win percentage of seventy five or more, it's only
16:27
Speaker 1: forty three percent against spread. The reality Will Levis versus
16:34
Speaker 1: a Brian Flores defense. And if you want to talk
16:37
Speaker 1: about the highest rankings for any defense in pressure and
16:45
Speaker 1: blitz and blitz rate and total pressure is raw and
16:49
Speaker 1: total blitz is raw, it's going to be Brian Flores.
16:53
Speaker 1: If you want to talk about the quarterback who struggles
16:57
Speaker 1: the most in the NFL, in that scenario, it's Will Lewis.
17:05
Speaker 1: So I know that, like we want to do the
17:09
Speaker 1: ugly thing here, I kind of went no part of
17:11
Speaker 1: this game.
17:14
Speaker 2: Yeah, and it's also I mean, my main thing is
17:16
Speaker 2: it's just yeah, Will loves and might might struggle and
17:19
Speaker 2: be bad in this game. But Sam could be said
17:21
Speaker 2: for Sam Darnel. And now we do have date on
17:24
Speaker 2: him where you know, he's been a favorite ten times
17:26
Speaker 2: of three points or more in his career. He's three
17:29
Speaker 2: and seven against the spreading those games, so we've seen
17:31
Speaker 2: him struggle as big favorites. Now, I told you the
17:34
Speaker 2: negative to me is that the numbers come down. If
17:37
Speaker 2: I want to put it in. If it's six and
17:38
Speaker 2: a half, But I told you I'm not here to
17:40
Speaker 2: force us in to take in this at six and
17:42
Speaker 2: five and a half. It's like, I want a good
17:43
Speaker 2: number run back in such a terrible quarterback and will
17:46
Speaker 2: love us. But you're right, like, don't need to force
17:49
Speaker 2: us one in. But it's a spot I have to bet,
17:52
Speaker 2: and it's just it's it's buy and low on this
17:55
Speaker 2: Tennessee team. Even last week, like in my money line
17:57
Speaker 2: around Robin one on the legs was the Patriots paired
18:01
Speaker 2: with the Jaguars, and it's like I knew at the time,
18:03
Speaker 2: everyone was like, there's no way the Jaguars going to
18:05
Speaker 2: beat that team, but you saw how it could happen. Right,
18:07
Speaker 2: if you have a quarterback that's just playing terrible like
18:11
Speaker 2: Sam Dona has been playing, teams are going to stay
18:13
Speaker 2: in these games. So I'm with you. This is an
18:16
Speaker 2: ugly one that I'm happy to avoid. But at six
18:18
Speaker 2: and a half, if it is that jet in or contest,
18:20
Speaker 2: I might force you to take it.
18:23
Speaker 1: Well, I think we're going to have five pretty good options,
18:25
Speaker 1: and I do think we're gonna have to race onto
18:27
Speaker 1: the site after this show because there's going to be
18:29
Speaker 1: a game that we want to get in before they
18:32
Speaker 1: become the favorite, and that is the Cleveland Browns, who
18:35
Speaker 1: at bet three six 's five are still one point
18:38
Speaker 1: underdogs at the New Orleans Saints. We talked about it
18:42
Speaker 1: on Tuesday. I can't get out of my head, like
18:45
Speaker 1: I don't know why the Saints are still favored here.
18:48
Speaker 1: It might not last much longer. Like there's a couple
18:50
Speaker 1: spots where the Saints are a half point favorite now
18:54
Speaker 1: opened it what two and a half on Sunday when
18:57
Speaker 1: we first identified it? Are only mitigating factor here? Is
19:02
Speaker 1: jamis other than that? Like? How are we not betting
19:07
Speaker 1: the better defense, the healthier team off of bye with
19:11
Speaker 1: a superior coach against a team that basically just won
19:17
Speaker 1: the game that had to win and might not win
19:19
Speaker 1: again all year and has zero receivers and a quarterback
19:23
Speaker 1: who under pressure is a much different quarterback than he
19:26
Speaker 1: is when he is not under pressure, which is why
19:28
Speaker 1: we liked him last week. You got to be on
19:30
Speaker 1: the Browns here, assignment be on the Browns with me.
19:34
Speaker 2: I mean, I guess I'm fine with you putting them in,
19:36
Speaker 2: but I have true I told you I want to
19:38
Speaker 2: avoid this game because I don't really have a good
19:39
Speaker 2: read on it. I just I just don't trust either
19:42
Speaker 2: of these quarterbacks right now. And I'm with you. I'm
19:44
Speaker 2: trying to find a reason to take this Cleveland team.
19:46
Speaker 2: You're right, maybe it's the number and that's where the
19:48
Speaker 2: value is. But for me, I just there's other games
19:52
Speaker 2: I'd rather bet on. So this could be your game
19:54
Speaker 2: if you want to stand behind it, you're confident in it.
19:56
Speaker 2: I believe in you. You can put this one in.
19:58
Speaker 2: But as you said your Thursday, I just can't get there.
20:00
Speaker 1: Why is it just because of Jamis?
20:03
Speaker 2: Yeah, and just the Browns in general. They're just they're
20:07
Speaker 2: they're terrible this year and we've seen them struggle when
20:11
Speaker 2: they get behind, and you know it's it is. It's
20:15
Speaker 2: a huge game for Jamis, Like this is him coming
20:18
Speaker 2: back to a team that let him go, and you
20:20
Speaker 2: know he's in his feelings. Jamis is a crazy person
20:22
Speaker 2: in his own heads. A lot of people forget. You
20:25
Speaker 2: can go out, you can see practice, you can nicknack this,
20:27
Speaker 2: that Paddy Way give with all the bone. That's just
20:30
Speaker 2: my fear is he's just gonna be trying to do
20:32
Speaker 2: too much. That's what you don't want if I knew
20:34
Speaker 2: that this is gonna be a heavy Nick Chubb type
20:36
Speaker 2: of game, and I would feel really confident, like what
20:38
Speaker 2: you're talking about, this is a nice spot to fade.
20:40
Speaker 2: This Saint's team off will win. I win that. Me
20:43
Speaker 2: and you both agree they got pretty lucky to get
20:45
Speaker 2: So I agree with your view of it that the
20:47
Speaker 2: numbers probably right of Cleveland. I'm just not confident in
20:50
Speaker 2: this Cleveland side.
20:51
Speaker 1: Stefanski knows he's got a healthy offensive line, that he
20:56
Speaker 1: can keep the clock running, that he's got a defense
21:00
Speaker 1: that can be in Derek Carr's face, that the Saints
21:03
Speaker 1: probably should have lost that game last week. They got
21:06
Speaker 1: lucky winning it, Like I can believe all this.
21:11
Speaker 2: All right, put it, We'll put it in.
21:13
Speaker 1: Then I want to put it in. I want to
21:15
Speaker 1: put it in. I want to own it. I'll own it.
21:18
Speaker 1: But Simon, it is not our big balls. Better the
21:24
Speaker 1: Week Care presented by Tommy John. If you've got the balls,
21:30
Speaker 1: Tommy John has the supports. Great games start with great underwear.
21:34
Speaker 1: Tommy John makes the greatest. I believe we won our
21:38
Speaker 1: big balls last week. It was the Saints, if I'm
21:40
Speaker 1: not mistaken. So this week we're doing something we have
21:45
Speaker 1: never done in the history of our show. How long
21:48
Speaker 1: have you and I been together? What is it? There's
21:51
Speaker 1: a sixth season. In six seasons, we have never gone
21:57
Speaker 1: big balls on a two touchdown favorite, Yet here we are.
22:07
Speaker 1: I bet the Lions at minus thirteen. It's in the app.
22:11
Speaker 1: I saw it moving to thirteen and a half at
22:14
Speaker 1: a couple of Connecticut books and wanted to get the
22:16
Speaker 1: thirteen where I could. It's up to fourteen at a
22:19
Speaker 1: lot of places, so that's the consensus. I feel like
22:25
Speaker 1: we're entering the law of big numbers territory. It becomes
22:30
Speaker 1: impossible for teams and quarterbacks to continue to outperform their
22:35
Speaker 1: previous success and the market. It's why Patrick mahomes Ats
22:41
Speaker 1: record is a favorite of more than three is so low,
22:45
Speaker 1: Like the public expectations are so high, it's just not
22:48
Speaker 1: possible to consistently beat them. And I feel like we're
22:52
Speaker 1: reaching that point with the Lions. But I don't care,
22:55
Speaker 1: Like there's no reason not to bet them here.
22:59
Speaker 2: Yeah, I've seen the trends as well, point to that
23:01
Speaker 2: these big favorites have done well these last couple of years,
23:04
Speaker 2: Like that's it's been profitable to take these favorites of
23:07
Speaker 2: ten points or more, and Jared got specifically. You know,
23:11
Speaker 2: he's made nine starts eleven and two or nine and
23:14
Speaker 2: two straight up, and those starts as a big favorite
23:17
Speaker 2: seven and four against the spread as a big favorite
23:20
Speaker 2: of ten points or more. So I'm trying not to
23:23
Speaker 2: let it scare us off. The biggest thing to me
23:25
Speaker 2: is just the fact that they didn't cover last week, Chad,
23:27
Speaker 2: like we've talked about this. I don't know if we
23:30
Speaker 2: talked about this year, because they've been a covering machine.
23:32
Speaker 2: But basically me and Chad blindly bet the Lions after
23:35
Speaker 2: they don't cover, and people always ask us why, and
23:38
Speaker 2: it's pretty simply point to a trend of Lions fail
23:41
Speaker 2: to cover their previous game Golf fourteen and four against
23:43
Speaker 2: the spread with Detroit, including nine and two at home
23:46
Speaker 2: against the spread. So it's just really a spot like
23:49
Speaker 2: we already liked the number. We like that it's Mac
23:52
Speaker 2: Jones going against his defense, and it feels like that
23:54
Speaker 2: was the Jaguars everything game last week outdoors in the muck,
23:58
Speaker 2: and don't I just lay down at this point? Isn't
24:01
Speaker 2: this a team that's just going to roll over and die,
24:03
Speaker 2: especially if the Lions just come out and they're humming.
24:06
Speaker 2: You know. That was the throwaway game last week. I
24:09
Speaker 2: coughed the guy threw what was with five interceptions? You
24:11
Speaker 2: expect him to have a huge bounce back spot and
24:14
Speaker 2: this offense to have a bounce back spot, especially against
24:16
Speaker 2: this Jaguars team. So shop around. There's I mean, I'm
24:20
Speaker 2: seeing a thirteen still out there, so you can still
24:22
Speaker 2: get a good number on this. For this show, though,
24:24
Speaker 2: we'll take it up fourteen because that's what it's at
24:26
Speaker 2: on bet three six five, Hello Detroit. Double digit's favorites
24:37
Speaker 2: this year four and oh against the spread. I want
24:40
Speaker 2: to just give that style because that's just it just
24:41
Speaker 2: shows how things have changed. Like I used to be,
24:44
Speaker 2: I really love taking double digit favorites, and this year
24:46
Speaker 2: is kind of showing you. It's like it's moved the
24:48
Speaker 2: other way where if the books are really pushing it
24:50
Speaker 2: above ten, I mean, they really need the dog to
24:53
Speaker 2: come through and that's just not happened them this season.
24:55
Speaker 2: I mean, that's that's crazy, the fact that there're four
24:57
Speaker 2: and oh double digit favorites this.
24:58
Speaker 1: Year, and it's crazy. That is our big balls better
25:01
Speaker 1: of the Week, and we're going to be putting the
25:02
Speaker 1: Detroit Lions in the contest that way. As I said,
25:07
Speaker 1: you can see in the app, I've already taken the Lions.
25:12
Speaker 1: Our sponsor, Tommy John, makes the most comfortable underwear I've
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Speaker 1: ever worn. They've changed my life. When you're truly comfortable,
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Speaker 1: you can bet better, which means taking the Lions. As
25:24
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25:42
Speaker 1: We talked about Green Bay in Chicago. Chicago is now
25:45
Speaker 1: down to five and a half and like this was
25:49
Speaker 1: a placeholder game for us, we could not come to
25:51
Speaker 1: a conclusion. You've started the lean in the Packers direction,
25:55
Speaker 1: to be honest, so do I. I think we wanted
25:59
Speaker 1: to see a little bit about how the market moved
26:02
Speaker 1: I the past two decades. I used this stat last
26:08
Speaker 1: week for the Niners against the Bucks, and we were
26:12
Speaker 1: on the Niners. It didn't work out, but they dominated
26:15
Speaker 1: it and should have won that game. Going away Over
26:17
Speaker 1: the past two decades, road faves off of a buy
26:22
Speaker 1: cover at a sixty percent clip, the number is seventy
26:25
Speaker 1: percent when the spread is five and a half or higher.
26:30
Speaker 1: Why do you think the wise guys are on the Bears, Simon?
26:34
Speaker 1: Why do you want to be on the packers?
26:36
Speaker 2: Because they're like me and they're old school. It's a
26:38
Speaker 2: divisional home dog that's getting less than ten percent of
26:42
Speaker 2: the bets, less than ten percent of the tickets. It's
26:45
Speaker 2: this is what professionals do, and this is why again,
26:47
Speaker 2: book makers need people like us because we bet the
26:49
Speaker 2: other side and no one's betting, so they're not going
26:52
Speaker 2: to catch me on this one. Though, Like I, I
26:55
Speaker 2: was a sucker. I think it was five six years
26:57
Speaker 2: ago where I was. I thought Roger was kind of
27:00
Speaker 2: heading down the other side of his career. I know
27:02
Speaker 2: it sounds stupid now, but this is when he was
27:04
Speaker 2: still with McCarthy a little. Did I know he was
27:07
Speaker 2: about to win two MVPs after that, But I was
27:10
Speaker 2: always like, Okay, they'll finally catch this Green Bay team.
27:13
Speaker 2: Especially I got sucked in when they got you guys
27:14
Speaker 2: had Mitch Tubisky. It doesn't matter if your team's good
27:18
Speaker 2: if Green Bay is on the other side, they just
27:21
Speaker 2: always beat you guys. It's the most bizarre thing right now.
27:24
Speaker 2: You're the relationship between green Bay like that, the Brett
27:27
Speaker 2: Favre era they dominated, Aaron Rodgers era they dominated, and
27:30
Speaker 2: then Jordan Love, who's not even been that good as
27:33
Speaker 2: a favor for some reason, though he plays really well
27:35
Speaker 2: against this this Bears team. So five and a half now, Chad,
27:39
Speaker 2: I'll join the public. I'll take the number. But I'm
27:42
Speaker 2: happy that we don't have to make this one over
27:43
Speaker 2: five because I'm just not super confident in betting in
27:45
Speaker 2: Jordan Love is a big favorite.
27:47
Speaker 1: No, I'm not either. I am more confident in betting
27:52
Speaker 1: Matt laflor So even though it's not, it's not gonna
27:54
Speaker 1: end up being our contest. Play Matt Lafleur on extended
27:58
Speaker 1: preps seven and three against the spread when favored by
28:01
Speaker 1: four points or more. That's the fourth best mark amongst
28:05
Speaker 1: the ninety nine head coaches over the past twenty years.
28:08
Speaker 1: Rams minus four and a half at New England another one.
28:11
Speaker 1: I think you and I have sort of come to
28:14
Speaker 1: an agreement here independently. We both kind of like the Rams,
28:19
Speaker 1: and we know that the wise guys aren't the Patriots here,
28:22
Speaker 1: but off of home loss as a favorite last week,
28:25
Speaker 1: they're now road favorites field goal or more. Those teams
28:28
Speaker 1: fifty eight percent against spreads in two thousand and three,
28:31
Speaker 1: twenty nine to fifteen to two since twenty twenty. I
28:34
Speaker 1: don't know McVeigh in this spot. He's great on short rest.
28:40
Speaker 1: Like with Stafford as a QB, he's great on short rest.
28:44
Speaker 1: I'm actually surprised that the wise guy love for the
28:47
Speaker 1: Patriots in this spot. It feels like you'd want to
28:53
Speaker 1: sell the Patriots right now and buy the Rams because
28:56
Speaker 1: this was another one the Rams kind of dominated offense.
29:01
Speaker 2: Yeah, and it feels like we're getting a great number
29:03
Speaker 2: like this is it's down to four and a half,
29:05
Speaker 2: like you just said, on this Rams team, that to
29:06
Speaker 2: me is there's there's too much line movement right now
29:09
Speaker 2: and to pass on this value. This should be at six.
29:12
Speaker 2: Like you said, this Rams team coming off just their
29:15
Speaker 2: worst offensive output this season, and there's no excuse, right,
29:18
Speaker 2: they had all their guys back, they have their offensive
29:20
Speaker 2: lineback at pook in the lineup bit a Cooper Cup,
29:23
Speaker 2: no excuse. That was just a totally fall on their
29:25
Speaker 2: face terrible game by them. How do we not been
29:28
Speaker 2: on the bounce back the veteran quarterback with a great
29:30
Speaker 2: head coach. This is the spot you dominate, right going
29:33
Speaker 2: up against the rookie head coach and the rookie quarterback
29:35
Speaker 2: after they just had a huge road win like this,
29:38
Speaker 2: This Patrios team's gonna be feeling themselves all week, and
29:40
Speaker 2: then on the flip side, this other team is going
29:42
Speaker 2: to be raging. So the Rams have to roll here
29:46
Speaker 2: if they If they don't Chad, I don't know what
29:48
Speaker 2: kind of purgatory will put them into. But it's like,
29:51
Speaker 2: this is clearly not a playoff team if they don't
29:52
Speaker 2: come out and dominate this game. This is a team.
29:54
Speaker 2: If this is a game, if you are a legit
29:56
Speaker 2: playoff team who's gonna make a wild card run, you
29:59
Speaker 2: have to win this game and you have to kind
30:00
Speaker 2: of put it away by I think seven points are
30:02
Speaker 2: more so I love this number and I'm happy you're
30:04
Speaker 2: on the same side with me.
30:06
Speaker 1: Yeah, to me, this feels like a no brainer for
30:08
Speaker 1: the contest. The only question is we had the Rams
30:10
Speaker 1: as a foxhole last week. Do we want to go
30:14
Speaker 1: Rams foxhole again? Because we are clearly on the opposite
30:17
Speaker 1: side of the professionals.
30:19
Speaker 2: I love it.
30:21
Speaker 1: Let's do it. Let's put the Rams in the foxhole.
30:23
Speaker 2: You know me, regardless of what's going on, I'm a
30:25
Speaker 2: foxhole guy. I commit to a team, I commit to
30:28
Speaker 2: a city. I'm a foxhole guy.
30:30
Speaker 1: I can't think of a better tandem to be in
30:32
Speaker 1: with than Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford. We love betting
30:36
Speaker 1: on Matthew Stafford. I'm not afraid of it. We're going
30:39
Speaker 1: even the foxhole with the Los Angeles Rams minus four
30:42
Speaker 1: and a half against the New England Patriots. Another game.
30:48
Speaker 1: I love this one too, and you and I have
30:50
Speaker 1: not talked about it enough. Colts plus four at the
30:54
Speaker 1: New York Jets went from four to three and a
30:57
Speaker 1: half since we last met. Also, since we last met,
31:02
Speaker 1: Anthony Richardson back in the starting lineup. Soon after that,
31:06
Speaker 1: the line moved back to Colts plus four. Are you
31:13
Speaker 1: as in love with the Colts in this game as
31:15
Speaker 1: I am?
31:17
Speaker 2: No, I'm not. No, No, you're not. I'm betting it
31:21
Speaker 2: because I think it's a good number. I don't think
31:22
Speaker 2: this Jets team should be a four point favorite against anybody,
31:25
Speaker 2: but I don't know how, I don't know the I
31:29
Speaker 2: don't know the mood of the team, Chad, like everything
31:31
Speaker 2: outside the numbers and all the data. The human element
31:34
Speaker 2: of this is what scares me because we talked about
31:36
Speaker 2: I don't like when teams have their owners making all
31:39
Speaker 2: the decisions. And I said it from the get go.
31:41
Speaker 2: There was something funky about the whole way they made
31:43
Speaker 2: Flaco the quarterback. The team reacted to it negatively. Flacco
31:48
Speaker 2: turned back into a pumpkin. He didn't handle it well either.
31:51
Speaker 2: And now it's all back on to Anthony Richardsons shoulders.
31:53
Speaker 2: And he's what twenty two to twenty three years old,
31:55
Speaker 2: and the guy's made nine starts. It's just, oh man,
31:59
Speaker 2: it's a brutal they're putting this kid in like this
32:01
Speaker 2: is just a year. You should have just let him
32:03
Speaker 2: play it out. This was his rookie season. They just
32:06
Speaker 2: I hate that the NFL moves so quick they judge
32:09
Speaker 2: these kids because it's what because he was two for
32:11
Speaker 2: fifteen passing in that first half, That's why they did it.
32:13
Speaker 2: It's like we knew the kids weakness is coming out.
32:16
Speaker 2: He was terrible at throwing the ball to the guy underneath.
32:20
Speaker 2: He just literally can't hit it. But he's a great
32:22
Speaker 2: deep ball thrower, so it's like they know what they
32:23
Speaker 2: need to work on. It's all about how you get
32:25
Speaker 2: taxed these next couple of years. But his mental might
32:28
Speaker 2: be shot now. We don't know what he's This kid's
32:30
Speaker 2: gone through these last couple of weeks. So that's why
32:33
Speaker 2: it's like I'll bet it. It's the same thing like
32:35
Speaker 2: I'd rather do Cleveland than take this number with you, Chad,
32:39
Speaker 2: It's like this one, we're strictly betting the number. At
32:41
Speaker 2: least Cleveland. I can see them winning. Like I think
32:44
Speaker 2: they are the better team than the Saints, where the
32:48
Speaker 2: Jets are the better team, They're just they're just another
32:51
Speaker 2: team that's just lost overall. Like you said, they don't
32:54
Speaker 2: have a head coach. That's a huge advantage to that
32:57
Speaker 2: Colts team. So that's another reason why I'm playing that
32:58
Speaker 2: plus four numbers. So it's just a number that I'm
33:01
Speaker 2: not confident. There's other games I'd rather bet, but Anthewy interesson.
33:04
Speaker 2: We'll see how he can handle adversary. Look, this is
33:06
Speaker 2: a huge game where if they win this, this could
33:09
Speaker 2: change their whole season. If they lose it, we could
33:12
Speaker 2: easily just see this keep getting worse and worse for
33:14
Speaker 2: this Colts team, because this Jets team, we said it
33:16
Speaker 2: last week, they look like they quit. So we'll see
33:18
Speaker 2: which one of these teams is ready for vacation, which
33:21
Speaker 2: team is actually not given up yet on their season.
33:23
Speaker 1: Here's why I like this, and this is part of betting,
33:27
Speaker 1: and it's something that every regular better has to manage,
33:32
Speaker 1: which is their own personal biases and the things that
33:36
Speaker 1: matter the most of them when they're breaking down these games.
33:40
Speaker 1: And we've generally liked the Colts because we like Shane
33:43
Speaker 1: Steichen's a play caller, at least we did last year
33:46
Speaker 1: and still do. And we love their running game right
33:49
Speaker 1: Their run blocking unit number one in the NFL. Their
33:53
Speaker 1: offensive line when it comes to run blocking is elite.
33:57
Speaker 1: Jonathan Taylor is a great running back. Gain more than
34:00
Speaker 1: one hundred yards last week against the Bills. It's why
34:04
Speaker 1: we liked that game last week. And if not for
34:07
Speaker 1: the Joe Flacco turning into Batter Flacco, then I still
34:12
Speaker 1: contend we cover that game. I know it's a ludicrous
34:15
Speaker 1: argument if if but like the Jets run defense is terrible.
34:20
Speaker 1: We saw it last week. They can't tackle. They're afraid
34:23
Speaker 1: to tackle. They don't want to put their nose in it.
34:26
Speaker 1: If I'm Shane Steichen and I can run the ball
34:31
Speaker 1: and I can dominate that way, and I get Anthony
34:33
Speaker 1: Richardson back, then all of a sudden, I've got another
34:36
Speaker 1: running threat against a defense that is chaos, and really
34:41
Speaker 1: it doesn't have anything to hang its hat on right now.
34:44
Speaker 1: So I like it actually more at four with Anthony
34:48
Speaker 1: Richardson than I do with Joe Flacco. We don't have
34:51
Speaker 1: to put it in, but my reverse psychology might have
34:53
Speaker 1: worked because now I get to put Cleveland in. That's fair,
34:59
Speaker 1: all right. So Atlanta at Denver, Atlanta's two and a half.
35:05
Speaker 1: I'm surprised that didn't come up in sharp calls because
35:09
Speaker 1: I feel like the wise guys are on Denver and
35:11
Speaker 1: you and I both like Atlanta.
35:13
Speaker 2: Yeah, and it's just a game where it's it's not
35:16
Speaker 2: honestly as heavy as you think it would be on
35:18
Speaker 2: that Denver team. For the professionals, I think they liked
35:20
Speaker 2: the early number right. They grabbed it when it was
35:22
Speaker 2: one one and a half. Now that's up to two
35:25
Speaker 2: and a half. Either guys are avoiding or people are
35:27
Speaker 2: like you and me, right, we're taking the other side
35:29
Speaker 2: in this, So I don't know where you're at with Atlanta.
35:33
Speaker 2: It's feeling like a little chalky to me that like
35:35
Speaker 2: it's of course we're taking this Kirk Cousins a two
35:38
Speaker 2: point dog to bow Nicks. I'm just worried there's something
35:43
Speaker 2: I'm missing here because this does feel easy, Like when
35:45
Speaker 2: we talked on Tuesday, It's like I thought this was
35:47
Speaker 2: gonna be one of my bigger bets. I've kind of
35:49
Speaker 2: pulled back from it because there's other games I like more,
35:51
Speaker 2: but it's it's shocking it's still two and a half
35:54
Speaker 2: on this Atlanta team. I just don't know what I'm missing.
35:57
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm you know what I put in the notes.
35:59
Speaker 1: I really can't believe this line hasn't moved.
36:02
Speaker 2: Yeah, like what are.
36:02
Speaker 1: And it turned me off in the same way I
36:05
Speaker 1: think it turned you off the past forty eight hours.
36:08
Speaker 1: And again you and I haven't talked about it. I
36:11
Speaker 1: like things to be fresh for the show, but I
36:15
Speaker 1: have not put much. I don't think I put any
36:18
Speaker 1: money on the Falcons yet.
36:21
Speaker 2: I bet it, but I'm with you, it's like I
36:23
Speaker 2: bet it. I'm like, ah, should I just put that
36:25
Speaker 2: much money. I just put on that like I should
36:27
Speaker 2: have been patient.
36:28
Speaker 1: Well, it's not a contest play to me, and I
36:30
Speaker 1: think on Tuesday, if you had asked me on Tuesday,
36:33
Speaker 1: I was probably gung ho putting in this in the contest.
36:36
Speaker 1: And it's definitely faded out of the top six or
36:40
Speaker 1: seven for me at this point. Like Kirk Cousins off
36:45
Speaker 1: a loss, straight up off a loss, he's great, But
36:50
Speaker 1: I do worry about the pressure that the Broncos can
36:54
Speaker 1: get on Kirk Cousins in this game, and the lack
36:58
Speaker 1: of pressure the Falcons and create for bo Nix, who's
37:02
Speaker 1: just clearly getting more and more confident each and every week.
37:05
Speaker 1: And if I'm the Broncos, I'm emboldened by what happened
37:11
Speaker 1: against the Chiefs, Like I look at that and think, wait,
37:15
Speaker 1: we can play here, Like this was not us like
37:19
Speaker 1: being a bad team. This was just they made a
37:22
Speaker 1: great play in the exact right spot. They're the champions.
37:26
Speaker 1: What can we learn from this? I don't know. I'm
37:29
Speaker 1: a little more nervous about it than I was, so
37:30
Speaker 1: I'm glad we're on the same page. Meanwhile, I mentioned
37:34
Speaker 1: up top with the Steelers We're just going to keep
37:39
Speaker 1: playing with fire, right the Steelers plus three Every week
37:43
Speaker 1: we say raw Rob Mike Tomlin, and we take it,
37:47
Speaker 1: even though it feels kind of chalky and cliche at
37:50
Speaker 1: this point. Same thing with the Kansas City Chiefs, who
37:54
Speaker 1: are now two point dogs at Buffalo. It's come down
37:57
Speaker 1: from two and a half. This was my ex decision
38:00
Speaker 1: this week. The wise guys you said they were on Buffalo,
38:04
Speaker 1: they bettered at the two and a half. A little
38:05
Speaker 1: bit of buyback. All the precedent tells you not to
38:09
Speaker 1: overthink it. You said it on Sunday, you said it
38:12
Speaker 1: again on Tuesday. Do not go too deep into the matchup.
38:16
Speaker 1: Take Patrick Mahomes. Why don't the wise guys agree with us?
38:21
Speaker 2: I honestly think it's all about what groof Tree talked to.
38:23
Speaker 2: I would say that some guys are like me that
38:26
Speaker 2: just they've learned from going against Mahomes in the past
38:30
Speaker 2: that there's just don't don't listen to your model, stop
38:33
Speaker 2: thinking you know more, you just bet Mahomes. It's that
38:38
Speaker 2: kind of thing where the other side is just we
38:40
Speaker 2: all know what they know. Right. This Chiefs team isn't
38:44
Speaker 2: that good as people perceived. They've gotten extremely lucky this season.
38:47
Speaker 2: They do have injuries that effective this team, like number
38:51
Speaker 2: one receiver and their number one running back. That's a
38:54
Speaker 2: huge thing to a team like that that needs those
38:55
Speaker 2: explosive plays, right, and we've kind of seen they've just
38:59
Speaker 2: figured it out out where they've dinked and dunked their
39:01
Speaker 2: way down the field. Now they're kind of back to
39:03
Speaker 2: what they were last year of just a slow, ugly,
39:06
Speaker 2: drag it out kind of offense and that relies heavily
39:09
Speaker 2: on their defense. And when we look at this matchup,
39:12
Speaker 2: the biggest thing to me is just the pattern we've
39:14
Speaker 2: talked about that we think that we've nailed with the
39:17
Speaker 2: Bills and this team this season, which is if they're
39:20
Speaker 2: playing a bad team, they can roll you. I mean,
39:24
Speaker 2: we've seen it now with Joe Brady in this offense,
39:26
Speaker 2: him calling it. They can run it down team's throats
39:28
Speaker 2: if they're able to. The Chiefs aren't that type of team,
39:31
Speaker 2: and you know, we saw it with Houston. They struggled,
39:34
Speaker 2: they lost by three, and then they got rolled by
39:37
Speaker 2: that Ravens team. So we've seen them face good playoff
39:39
Speaker 2: teams and they've lost this year. This Buffalo team and
39:42
Speaker 2: here comes the Chiefs we perceived to be a good
39:45
Speaker 2: playoff team. I just think it's going to be tight.
39:48
Speaker 2: And that that two and a half, which is such
39:50
Speaker 2: a key number we always talk about. That felt like
39:52
Speaker 2: to me, that's where all the value was on this number.
39:54
Speaker 2: So Mahomes and the dog, we know, brain want to
39:57
Speaker 2: be on it. The fact that we were getting two
39:59
Speaker 2: and a half, I mean, chop around people. We we
40:01
Speaker 2: just said there's it's two now at bet three sixty five.
40:04
Speaker 2: There's still a couple two and a halfs out there.
40:05
Speaker 2: Make sure you grab that number. We always talk about
40:07
Speaker 2: such a key number. So I I am surprised that
40:12
Speaker 2: the money has moved this number back down because it
40:14
Speaker 2: seemed like the books were going to take a position
40:16
Speaker 2: right when they moved the all way up to two
40:17
Speaker 2: and a half. I don't know if you agree with me.
40:18
Speaker 2: I was like, oh, this might get to three. Like
40:20
Speaker 2: they're clearly taking a position here on the bills. They
40:23
Speaker 2: think they have a good read on it. But they've
40:26
Speaker 2: humbly moved it back down. So it seems like even
40:28
Speaker 2: the books are a little unasure how to price this
40:30
Speaker 2: game on this number.
40:32
Speaker 1: I was convinced Monday when it didn't get to three,
40:36
Speaker 1: because it got to two and a half right away
40:38
Speaker 1: that it was just staying there. So I betted at
40:40
Speaker 1: two and a half Kansas City on Monday. It's been holden.
40:44
Speaker 1: I'm not surprised at all now that it's gotten back
40:47
Speaker 1: down to two. I wouldn't be surprised if comes Sunday.
40:50
Speaker 1: We've seen so much money, especially since Betty became legal,
40:55
Speaker 1: come in on Sunday between eleven and one, so it's
41:01
Speaker 1: like so hard to be patient during the week and like,
41:03
Speaker 1: no that you might be able to get the number
41:06
Speaker 1: you want on Sunday. I actually think the number is
41:10
Speaker 1: going to get lower. I think it's going to go
41:11
Speaker 1: in the direction of the Chiefs because it's the Chiefs.
41:13
Speaker 1: They're undefeated. Most people are going to want to bet them.
41:16
Speaker 2: Oh, the money line, the teaser exposure, they're getting hammered
41:19
Speaker 2: right now with it.
41:20
Speaker 1: I think, like you, if you want the Chiefs, get
41:22
Speaker 1: it now, because I don't think it's going to get
41:24
Speaker 1: any better for you. A couple of stats keep in
41:28
Speaker 1: mind we've mentioned them before. Mahomes eleven and three straight
41:32
Speaker 1: up as an underdog, twelve one and one against the spread.
41:36
Speaker 1: This is the best straight up mark as a dog
41:39
Speaker 1: in the Super Bowl era for a QB with at
41:43
Speaker 1: least ten starts. Of course, that one against the spread
41:46
Speaker 1: loss came as an underdog in twenty twenty two at
41:50
Speaker 1: home against Josh Allen and the Bills. They lost by four,
41:54
Speaker 1: so two and a half point underdog also twenty six
41:57
Speaker 1: to eight, and one in his career as a favorite
42:00
Speaker 1: of three or fewer that is Mahomes And the other
42:03
Speaker 1: thing I will say, like the Bills are not in
42:08
Speaker 1: a great spot health wise. We talk about the Chiefs
42:11
Speaker 1: and Isaiah p. Checko not back this week, or Rashi
42:14
Speaker 1: Rice he's out right, but Kean Coleman not playing, Dalton
42:20
Speaker 1: Kinkaid has a cast on his hand, Amari Cooper not playing.
42:27
Speaker 1: They've got some issues on their offensive line. They're not perfect, Chad,
42:31
Speaker 1: Before we go any further, just wanted to break into
42:34
Speaker 1: the show here to give my beloved Buffalo Bills a
42:37
Speaker 1: little pep talk. And who better to deliver this message
42:41
Speaker 1: than my favorite coach all time, coach Pete Bell, played
42:46
Speaker 1: by Nick Nolty in the seminal nineteen ninety four film
42:50
Speaker 1: Blue Chips. Coach Bell, let him hear.
42:53
Speaker 2: It, all right, boys, we got a job to do now.
42:59
Speaker 2: Goddamn it, We're not I'm going out there to make
43:01
Speaker 2: a good show or just put up a good fight.
43:04
Speaker 1: We're going out there to beat the best goddamn team
43:06
Speaker 1: in the country.
43:07
Speaker 2: Right now. Let me tell you something. Boys, you may
43:10
Speaker 2: not know this, but I know it. There is the
43:12
Speaker 2: talent in this room to do just that. He'll tell
43:15
Speaker 2: them exactly what we're gonna do. I'll give them our offense.
43:18
Speaker 2: I'll give them our defense because it's not what you do,
43:20
Speaker 2: goddamn it, it's how you do it. And we're gonna
43:23
Speaker 2: go nose to nose with him, and you're gonna play
43:25
Speaker 2: better than you ever dreamed of, because goddamn it, that's
43:28
Speaker 2: what I've have. Man of you. Good luck boys, give
43:31
Speaker 2: him help the Bills. Make me a wanna.
43:35
Speaker 1: Last game we want to talk about. This was an
43:38
Speaker 1: alternate foxhol so I do want us to go through it.
43:41
Speaker 1: We're sort of leaning Chargers right now minus one and
43:44
Speaker 1: a half against the Bengals. Maybe we're like on the
43:47
Speaker 1: wrong side of the wave now with the Chargers because
43:51
Speaker 1: we've avoided the Chargers. We've said they're a little bit
43:53
Speaker 1: too vanilla. We didn't believe they were good enough to
43:57
Speaker 1: beat good teams. Now all of a sudden, we've changedtoon
44:00
Speaker 1: and they could beat a good quarterback, which they haven't
44:03
Speaker 1: done this year. They've lost the Mahomes, they've lost to
44:05
Speaker 1: Kyler Murray. But maybe we're snake bitten. They've basically done
44:12
Speaker 1: things they don't do the things that have burned us
44:15
Speaker 1: the most. They don't make bad coaching decisions, they don't
44:19
Speaker 1: make bad penalties at the worst possible time. They don't
44:22
Speaker 1: turn the ball over. So now we like the Chargers.
44:25
Speaker 1: We're not gonna put them in the contest, I don't think,
44:27
Speaker 1: But give me your take here, I.
44:29
Speaker 2: Wouldn't mind putting them in. I love the Chargers in
44:31
Speaker 2: the spot. This is probably gonna end up being one
44:33
Speaker 2: of my bigger bets. I just love the number. Love
44:36
Speaker 2: this team, and the biggest thing I love about him
44:38
Speaker 2: is that they're not the Cincinnati Bengals team. Shead, I
44:40
Speaker 2: think this is one of the more overrated teams of
44:42
Speaker 2: this season. You're like me, though, you love Joe Burrow
44:44
Speaker 2: and he kind of blinds you to it.
44:46
Speaker 1: Love them.
44:48
Speaker 2: They're not good, this Bengals team. And I've thought that
44:52
Speaker 2: all season, and I remember I was giving you a
44:55
Speaker 2: hard time when they when you took them against the Eagles,
44:57
Speaker 2: and it's just like, I think they're going to struggle
44:59
Speaker 2: against good defense, and they've been very fortunate this season.
45:02
Speaker 2: They really haven't faced many good defenses. And you know,
45:07
Speaker 2: the public is a little blind to it right now
45:09
Speaker 2: because what we just saw them put up forty one
45:12
Speaker 2: against the Raiders two weeks ago, then last week in
45:14
Speaker 2: a primetime game, they put up thirty four. Like people
45:19
Speaker 2: right now are just like this offense is a juggernaut,
45:21
Speaker 2: They're unstoppable. We'll see like they're about to face another
45:25
Speaker 2: really good defense, and I think that's gonna be the
45:26
Speaker 2: difference here is the Chargers. They'll be patient, they'll wait.
45:30
Speaker 2: Joe Burrow is gonna force one in there, They'll make
45:32
Speaker 2: him make a mistake and that's when this Chargers team,
45:34
Speaker 2: to me, will kind of take this game by the
45:36
Speaker 2: rains and take a lead. So this is gonna be
45:40
Speaker 2: to me, the biggest public side of the week. Everyone,
45:43
Speaker 2: every bookmaker I've talked to it. Basically every teaser they've
45:46
Speaker 2: gotten too far as the Chiefs Bengals teaser like, they
45:49
Speaker 2: just can't stop taking those type of teasers, right now,
45:51
Speaker 2: which makes total sense. You're getting Joe Burrow up to
45:54
Speaker 2: seven and a half, which is a pretty good number
45:56
Speaker 2: against his Chargers team in most people's minds. But I
46:00
Speaker 2: could see this Chargers team rolling. It's just a team
46:03
Speaker 2: that's kind of been slept on this season. Like you said,
46:05
Speaker 2: we've even slept on them where we were just unsure
46:07
Speaker 2: about what their identity was gonna be, and they've taken
46:10
Speaker 2: on just this really smart team that plays stout defense.
46:12
Speaker 2: I think that's something that's gonna give trouble with this
46:14
Speaker 2: Bengals team. So even if this does turn into a
46:18
Speaker 2: QB battle, I'm not too thrown off with it being
46:21
Speaker 2: herbering his weapons. It feels like he's gotten more comfortable
46:24
Speaker 2: to here down the road. So do I wish this
46:27
Speaker 2: one kept going down? It woud been great to get
46:29
Speaker 2: the Chargers of the dog. I thought it would keep
46:30
Speaker 2: moving that way. This number is not bud despite just
46:34
Speaker 2: about nine money nine percent of the tickets coming in
46:37
Speaker 2: on that Bengals side. So we talked all the time.
46:39
Speaker 2: There's certain games I like to dig my heels and
46:41
Speaker 2: on this is gonna be one of them. We're primetime game,
46:43
Speaker 2: which everyone's on a road dog. Uh, usually is not
46:47
Speaker 2: good for these people.
46:49
Speaker 1: Well, that's when you say you're digging your heels. It
46:52
Speaker 1: feels like you want to take a position and put
46:55
Speaker 1: them in the contest. And now we're gonna have a
46:57
Speaker 1: challenge because I think we got we got if as
47:00
Speaker 1: I see it, seven games we like for the contest,
47:04
Speaker 1: so we'll have to narrow it down after the show.
47:07
Speaker 1: I think the games that we like the most Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Detroit,
47:14
Speaker 1: we like the Rams, Kansas City, the Chargers. I think
47:20
Speaker 1: that's actually six, So it's gonna come Maybe it's coming
47:22
Speaker 1: down to the Chargers in the Browns. Maybe it's coming
47:24
Speaker 1: down to the Chargers in the Rams. Are we gonna
47:27
Speaker 1: want like a road favorite in there and a big
47:31
Speaker 1: favorite and a short home favorite that's going against what
47:35
Speaker 1: the public is doing. That's gonna be it's gonna be exciting.
47:39
Speaker 1: Each week we give out a two team money line
47:42
Speaker 1: underdog parlay Bet three six five boosts the odds and
47:46
Speaker 1: highlights it on their site all weekend under both game pages.
47:50
Speaker 1: Remember both games were eligible for Bet three six fives
47:53
Speaker 1: early payout promo, where your money line pick gets marked
47:56
Speaker 1: as a win. If that money line pick takes a
47:59
Speaker 1: seven team point lead even if they lose. I've benefit
48:04
Speaker 1: from this myself. If you want to bet this better
48:06
Speaker 1: at bet three six five this week's boosted parlay Steelers
48:11
Speaker 1: plus the Chiefs. Find the boost under either the Steelers
48:16
Speaker 1: or Chiefs game page. I'm bet three sixty five.
48:21
Speaker 2: There will come up payday. Hallelu yo, wanna pay day?
48:25
Speaker 2: There will come.
48:26
Speaker 1: Up payday some day.
48:28
Speaker 2: Some day there, I will come up heayday.
48:31
Speaker 1: Hallelu yo.
48:32
Speaker 3: Wanna payday.
48:33
Speaker 2: I will come up payday some day.
48:38
Speaker 1: Simon. This is where I thought we would land for
48:42
Speaker 1: our underdog round. Robin. Tell me if you disagree. Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Indianapolis, Cleveland.
48:55
Speaker 2: Uh, Cleveland is minus one tenth. So I'm gonna make
48:58
Speaker 2: you sadly have to take that one out. Let's pair
49:00
Speaker 2: up another long shot with that Coats one, because I
49:02
Speaker 2: we're the type where you're getting to the point of
49:04
Speaker 2: the season where it's like you want to take these
49:06
Speaker 2: ugly dogs, like just like the Patriots last week, right
49:09
Speaker 2: every now and then they're in, they're going to keep popping.
49:11
Speaker 2: How do we not throw Tennessee?
49:13
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's what I thought you were going to say.
49:14
Speaker 2: I know, like, no one's betting them they're plus two
49:17
Speaker 2: oh five. Come on, this would be such a shocker,
49:20
Speaker 2: and I love those type of bets.
49:22
Speaker 1: Give me your biggest bets. Then right now you mentioned
49:24
Speaker 1: the Chargers. Where are your biggest bets?
49:26
Speaker 2: They're not yet Chargers because I, like I said, I
49:29
Speaker 2: felt the public would really hammer that that number on
49:31
Speaker 2: the Bengals and I'd get a better number. But it
49:34
Speaker 2: looks like I'm just gonna have to suck it up
49:35
Speaker 2: and take this minus one and a half two and
49:37
Speaker 2: a half chiefs if you can still find it. That's
49:40
Speaker 2: no brown, no doubt aboucking with my bigger bets, Pittsburgh.
49:43
Speaker 2: I was hoping we'd still get the three and a half.
49:45
Speaker 2: Chat we've seen now it's the books are going to hold.
49:48
Speaker 2: Now on the three, I haven't broken yet. Like my
49:51
Speaker 2: early heavy money was on the three and a half.
49:53
Speaker 2: Haven't touched the three yet. I'm gonna give in. This
49:56
Speaker 2: will be one of my bigger bets if it just
49:57
Speaker 2: stays of the three. I don't hate taking the three.
49:59
Speaker 2: I just want the three and a half. You know
50:01
Speaker 2: it is so those two they jumped out right away,
50:04
Speaker 2: And then right now, I mean shockingly Detroit. I've just
50:07
Speaker 2: been hammering it at thirteen. I was just all over
50:11
Speaker 2: it thirteen and a half. I've played a little bit
50:13
Speaker 2: of fourteen. I've slowed down a little bit just because
50:16
Speaker 2: it's hitting that point of I don't think they're gonna push,
50:19
Speaker 2: but it's like the value Obviously I've shifted at this point.
50:21
Speaker 2: But I really do love Detroit in this spot with this.
50:24
Speaker 1: Number, and I love that about you. I love that
50:27
Speaker 1: you and I independently who says we can't adjust? Fucking
50:33
Speaker 1: love that you and I are both going balls to
50:35
Speaker 1: the wall on a two touchdown favorite in the Detroit
50:40
Speaker 1: Lions Scoots Roulette. Last week we both lost. Who's your pick?
50:50
Speaker 1: This week?
50:52
Speaker 2: When all hope is lost, all this left is relief.
50:56
Speaker 3: Let's play Scoots Roulette?
51:00
Speaker 2: I mean depends. Well, they let me get Chiefs two
51:02
Speaker 2: and a half.
51:03
Speaker 1: Give me Chiefs two and a half.
51:05
Speaker 2: All right, I appreciate you. Give me, give me the boring,
51:07
Speaker 2: the safe play. I need to get back on my
51:09
Speaker 2: winning ways. Give me Chiefs two and a half.
51:11
Speaker 1: So I narrowed it down to the Rams, Detroit and
51:14
Speaker 1: Indie and the fact that you love Detroit as much
51:17
Speaker 1: as you do if you can give me the lowest
51:21
Speaker 1: available price on Detroit that is on the board anywhere
51:25
Speaker 1: I want to take Detroit.
51:26
Speaker 2: There's a thirteen out there, all.
51:27
Speaker 1: Right, then I'm taking Detroit minus thirteen.
51:30
Speaker 2: The most public book there is, so it doesn't matter.
51:32
Speaker 1: I'll take it. Customer Friendly decisions have been made. I'm
51:39
Speaker 1: getting a customer friendly line.
51:41
Speaker 2: True.
51:42
Speaker 1: Listen, Before we get out of here, let's bring in
51:44
Speaker 1: our director of research, Evan Abrams, for the final word.
51:48
Speaker 1: He's going to make us feel so much better about
51:51
Speaker 1: everything we've said today.
51:52
Speaker 2: The last word with Evan Abrams, we're finished talking.
51:58
Speaker 3: It would have been crazy a few years ago, just
52:00
Speaker 3: that we were starting a game down fourteen points and
52:02
Speaker 3: we had the Lions. But that's where we sit today.
52:04
Speaker 3: All right, Let's talk about the Chiefs because that's the
52:06
Speaker 3: game of the weekend. Here's a nugget I kind of
52:08
Speaker 3: drew up here. If you like Kansas City, you're gonna
52:11
Speaker 3: like where this is headed. So since the Patriots undefeated
52:13
Speaker 3: season in two thousand and seven, we've had just three
52:15
Speaker 3: undefeated teams lose three consecutive games against the spread or more.
52:20
Speaker 3: Where the Chiefs right now are on a three game
52:22
Speaker 3: ats losing streak. That is the twenty twenty Titans, the
52:25
Speaker 3: twenty eighteen Rams, and the two thousand and nine Saints.
52:28
Speaker 3: After that three game ATS losing streak, those teams win
52:31
Speaker 3: three and zero straight up and against the spread, covering
52:33
Speaker 3: by twenty three point five points per game after that streak.
52:36
Speaker 3: What I'm telling why, I'm telling you this. If you
52:39
Speaker 3: like Kansas City and you think being undefeated, even though
52:42
Speaker 3: that Denver field goal was one way or the other,
52:44
Speaker 3: isn't an accident, then covering and covering by a lot
52:47
Speaker 3: is coming. So that is a positive aspect of looking
52:50
Speaker 3: at the three game ATS losing streak they're on.
52:53
Speaker 1: That's how I'm looking at it. Evan.
52:54
Speaker 3: I now, Pittsburgh, you've said a lot about Tomlin. I
52:58
Speaker 3: just want to give you two more fun things. So
53:00
Speaker 3: his teams have faced Lamar four times. He's three and
53:03
Speaker 3: one straight up and four and zero against the spread.
53:05
Speaker 3: That's the good part because usually after you face Lamar
53:08
Speaker 3: a time or two, he ends up getting back at you,
53:11
Speaker 3: and that hasn't happened with Tomlin. One of the reasons
53:14
Speaker 3: might be how he does against the run game. So
53:16
Speaker 3: when Tomlin is a dog facing a rush offense averaging
53:19
Speaker 3: four plus yards per carry. He's twenty five and eight
53:21
Speaker 3: against the spread. When that moves to four point five
53:24
Speaker 3: yards per carry, it's eleven and four against the spread.
53:27
Speaker 3: And that's exactly what they're gonna have to do, is
53:29
Speaker 3: stop the run. Let's go to the Colts for a second.
53:32
Speaker 3: So the Jets, and this just gets crazier every week.
53:34
Speaker 3: But the Jets are three and seven straight up a
53:37
Speaker 3: thirty percent win percentage. They are four point favorites teams
53:41
Speaker 3: thirty three percent win percentage or less favored by four
53:44
Speaker 3: or more forty percent ats last twenty years. They are
53:47
Speaker 3: thirteen and twenty eight against the spread thirty two percent
53:50
Speaker 3: over the last decade. If you like Indy, it's just
53:53
Speaker 3: a straight numbers play. And I got one for the Rams.
53:56
Speaker 3: So this one I literally just checked again ten minutes
53:59
Speaker 3: ago because I wanted to make sure it was true.
54:01
Speaker 3: As a big favorite on the road, McVeigh has been
54:04
Speaker 3: nearly flawless as a favorite of above four points on
54:08
Speaker 3: the road. He is seventeen and oh straight up in
54:11
Speaker 3: his career, never lost, So hopefully that continues this week,
54:15
Speaker 3: and I gets New England for you guys.
54:16
Speaker 1: But that's what I got today, Chaed Wow, Simon, that's
54:19
Speaker 1: going to make some of our decisions today really difficult.
54:24
Speaker 1: I'm excited. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented
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Speaker 1: All right, Simon and I back for the next episode
55:10
Speaker 1: of The Favorites on the Action Network YouTube page. Sunday night,
55:13
Speaker 1: seven point thirty Eastern will recap week eleven. We'll get
55:17
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