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Why Staying Invested Still Matters in an Overvalued Market · The Financial Exchange Show

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  Speaker 1: making a donation Today. Face is the Financial Exchange with
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  Speaker 1: Mike Armstrong and Mark Vandetti.
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  Speaker 2: Good morning, Welcome back here to the Financial Exchange. It's Mike,
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  Speaker 2: Mark and Tucker with you on a Tuesday where we've
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  Speaker 2: got all three major indices in the red. The Dow
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  Speaker 2: just barely off about seven points flat for the day,
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  Speaker 2: the S and P five hundred off forty three or
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  Speaker 2: about half of a percent. But the Nasdaq is the
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  Speaker 2: one in focus this morning, all three hundred and fifty
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  Speaker 2: seven points one and a third percent in early trading.
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  Speaker 2: This on the heels of higher oil prices, threats of
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  Speaker 2: strikes again in the Middle East. We will see where
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  Speaker 2: all that goes. But oil price is up to eighty
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  Speaker 2: five dollars a barrel, up about nine tenths of a
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  Speaker 2: percent this morning. That's bringing gas prices up with it,
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  Speaker 2: up to four h six per gallon on the national average.
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  Speaker 2: We're also seeing a little bit of push again in
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  Speaker 2: bond yields. We talked about this in the first hour
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  Speaker 2: of the show, but the thirty year treasury is topping
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  Speaker 2: now five and a third percent. That is a nineteen
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  Speaker 2: year high. Last time we saw yields on the thirty
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  Speaker 2: year treasury this high was back in two thousand and seven.
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  Speaker 2: You know, we can talk about the cause and effect there,
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  Speaker 2: but the reality for all of us is that it's
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  Speaker 2: meaning higher interest rates. The average thirty year fixed rate
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  Speaker 2: mortgage now sitting at six point seven to three percent
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  Speaker 2: in part because of these higher interest rates that are
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  Speaker 2: being driven up. And Mark, let's talk a little bit
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  Speaker 2: more about this phenomenon we're seeing. And as we discussed previously,
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  Speaker 2: nailing down the proximate cause of yields moving in one
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  Speaker 2: direction or another over a short even intermediate period of
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  Speaker 2: time next two impossible to do. Occasionally you can look
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  Speaker 2: at I don't know, yields in the Argentinian economy and say, well,
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  Speaker 2: pretty clear, what's going on here. Other times you look
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  Speaker 2: at you know, yields climbing globally and you say, well,
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  Speaker 2: this could be any number of factors. But let's talk about.
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  Speaker 3: True stock prices.
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  Speaker 2: Do for that? Sure? Yeah, Like, you know, can I
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  Speaker 2: definitively say why home depot stock is up a percentage
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  Speaker 2: and a half this morning? Well, their earnings might not
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  Speaker 2: have been quite as badly something you thought? Yeah, you know,
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  Speaker 2: you can't say these sellers are selling, these buyers are buying,
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  Speaker 2: and therefore the price is going up. Same goes with
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  Speaker 2: bond bond prices and interest rates. Yeah, but instead of
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  Speaker 2: trying to suss out where, you know, where the demand
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  Speaker 2: is dropping or where their supply is increasing, let's just
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  Speaker 2: talk about like why it concerns people that interest rates
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  Speaker 2: are moving up? Right? You know what happens if it
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  Speaker 2: becomes pro longed, if it gets away from the Treasury
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  Speaker 2: and the Fed, and why it could create problems, certainly
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  Speaker 2: overseas but maybe even here in the United States.
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  Speaker 4: Well, it exacerbates the debt sustainability problem. And by that
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  Speaker 4: I mean debt relative to GDP, how much we owe
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  Speaker 4: collectively relative to divided by literally our output of goods
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  Speaker 4: and services, which we measure according to GDP Gross domestic Product.
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  Speaker 4: There's other ways to measure it, but that's the most
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  Speaker 4: widely publicized and useful measure. At some point, debt to
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  Speaker 4: GDP and debt held by the public to GDP is
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  Speaker 4: now a little bit over around one hundred percent. At
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  Speaker 4: some point, investors aren't going to believe that's going to
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  Speaker 4: get paid back. And I don't mean default. The US
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  Speaker 4: government went not default because we can print money, but
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  Speaker 4: at some point they're going to believe bond investors are going.
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  Speaker 3: To incur losses.
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  Speaker 1: Yep.
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  Speaker 3: And that's what happened during COVID.
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  Speaker 4: By the way, bond investors got screwed via inflation, interest
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  Speaker 4: rates went up by a lot. Existing bondholders saw huge,
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  Speaker 4: unprecedented principal losses. Broad bond indicies went down. Uh during
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  Speaker 4: the heat of that. Uh, that that pricing in of
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  Speaker 4: that realization. So you know, Mike, this this matters because
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  Speaker 4: the the treasuries, the the the interest paid by the
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  Speaker 4: US Treasury on debt. We all know it's about a
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  Speaker 4: trillion dollars we spend now more on interest than we
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  Speaker 4: do on defense.
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  Speaker 3: That's only going to rise.
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  Speaker 1: Uh.
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  Speaker 4: The the fiscal situation in this country is a mess.
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  Speaker 2: Uh.
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  Speaker 4: It's to say it's deteriorated in the past decade under
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  Speaker 4: Trump than Biden out Trump again is an understatement. We've
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  Speaker 4: been more wasteful than ever. There was a lot of
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  Speaker 4: handering during the Reagan years and debt did double from
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  Speaker 4: one to two trillion during those years. And I'm not
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  Speaker 4: going to deny that, but you could argue, well, that
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  Speaker 4: was an investment to win the Cold War. Debt hasn't
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  Speaker 4: quite doubled in the past ten years, but it's up
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  Speaker 4: well over fifty percent from a much bigger baseline, and
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  Speaker 4: in the last generation it's up from around what two
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  Speaker 4: three trillion to now nearly forty trillion all debt, not
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  Speaker 4: just dead held by the public. These numbers are staggering,
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  Speaker 4: so staggering that I don't I don't even know like
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  Speaker 4: how to conceptualize them. Frankly, at some point it's going
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  Speaker 4: to matter, and at some point interest rates will if
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  Speaker 4: nothing is done, go up. I assume buy a lot
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  Speaker 4: as investors price in the unavoidable money printing that's going
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  Speaker 4: to be used to pay down these.
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  Speaker 2: And that's that's again, what the risk of not getting
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  Speaker 2: your money back? It is not a concern for most
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  Speaker 2: people of the US government, the Treasury just saying well,
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  Speaker 2: we're not going to honor those debts and we are
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  Speaker 2: going to cancel it. Yeah, yeah, that's not likely what
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  Speaker 2: they're going to do. But if the US government does
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  Speaker 2: in fact need to print a whole bunch more money
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  Speaker 2: in order to pay back those debts, then you're being
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  Speaker 2: paid back in dollars that can buy a lot less
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  Speaker 2: stuff otherwise.
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  Speaker 3: Right, this is less of a.
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  Speaker 2: Problem here in the United States than it is for
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  Speaker 2: other countries. I want to focus.
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  Speaker 4: On that historically anyway, Well, hold on, I mean there
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  Speaker 4: have been periods when we've inflated a lot of debt away. Yep,
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  Speaker 4: when we jammed this problem down the throat of bondholders.
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  Speaker 4: Civil War, right after World War two less so. But
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  Speaker 4: and then if you count the Confederacy most people don't
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  Speaker 4: as a US government, but it happened to year inflation
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  Speaker 4: was like five thousand percent.
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  Speaker 2: What some would argue again, what I would argue is
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  Speaker 2: different today is the fact that we are the reserve currency.
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  Speaker 2: And why I think we're given much more leeway on
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  Speaker 2: our debt than pretty much any other country out there
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  Speaker 2: is because there are a lot more people and institutions
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  Speaker 2: that need to buy dollars in.
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  Speaker 4: Order to connect stuff interest right, I mean, we have
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  Speaker 4: been for the better part of a century now, and
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  Speaker 4: that won't stop rates from going up a lot. It
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  Speaker 4: did not in the nineteen seventies certainly.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, and so when you will use.
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  Speaker 3: That privilege too.
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  Speaker 4: Incidentally, if we continue to combused stable yeah, I don't
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  Speaker 4: know what's going to supplant the dollar. It's so dominant
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  Speaker 4: in foreign exchange and in settlement and payment. But investors
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  Speaker 4: won't put up with it.
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  Speaker 2: Let's take a quick break when we return, Hold on,
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  Speaker 2: I need to look at my agenda here. When we return,
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  Speaker 2: we're talking a little bit about the AI trade, specifically,
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  Speaker 2: what we have seen in stocks for the last five
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  Speaker 2: years rolling now pretty unprecedented levels of return, certainly nothing
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  Speaker 2: we've seen in the last two decades. What it's meant
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  Speaker 2: for investors, what's driving it, and what might be coming next.
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  Speaker 2: That's next on the Financial Exchange.
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  Speaker 1: He's the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
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  Speaker 2: The return that we've seen on stocks really since the
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  Speaker 2: COVID pandemic has been nothing just short of unprecedented. There
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  Speaker 2: have been very few periods of times that we have
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  Speaker 2: seen a compound growth rate like what we have seen
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  Speaker 2: from US equities since that period in time. I couldn't
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  Speaker 2: get exactly at the time frame that they're looking at here.
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  Speaker 2: I think it's a five year compound annual growth rate
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  Speaker 2: of fifteen percent on the S and P five hundred
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  Speaker 2: according to Dow Jones Market data. And I believe that's
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  Speaker 2: looking at this summer's close, you know, August close in
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  Speaker 2: twenty twenty six from what would be what's that twenty
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  Speaker 2: twenty twenty twenty one would be the five year time
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  Speaker 2: period in any case, Yeah, yeah.
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  Speaker 3: I always have to do that. I always want to subtract.
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  Speaker 2: In any case, you're looking at like the post COVID
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  Speaker 2: pretty low levels to now, and it is a pretty
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  Speaker 2: phenomenal point return. And I think there's a few messages
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  Speaker 2: in here, but there's really one that I think is relevant.
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  Speaker 2: They market Watch here, you know, listed out a bunch
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  Speaker 2: of things that they considered to be scary moments in
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  Speaker 2: time during that a global pandemic, the fastest thirty percent
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  Speaker 2: equity draw down in history, supply chain crisis, memestock mania,
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  Speaker 2: forty year high inflation rate of nine percent, Russia invading
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  Speaker 2: Ukraine again, one hundred and forty dollars a barrel oil prices,
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  Speaker 2: the FED had to hike seventy five basis points twice
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  Speaker 2: in back to back meetings. Short term bond yields going
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  Speaker 2: from zero to five percent, an inverted yield curve, Silicon
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  Speaker 2: Valley bank crisis, the twenty twenty two bear market, worst
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  Speaker 2: bond market crash in history, UH, one of the worst
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  Speaker 2: years ever for a sixty forty portfolio. Mortgage rates going
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  Speaker 2: three to eight percent UH, commercial real estate crashing, the
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  Speaker 2: China real estate crisis, government shutdowns, debt ceiling standoffs, credit
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  Speaker 2: rating downgrades, the yen carry trade, liberation day, terrifs, iron war,
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  Speaker 2: oil gas price spin to bathroom thirty year treasury yields. Again,
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  Speaker 2: all of these pretty much occurred over the last five
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  Speaker 2: six years.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, so at that point, like the market's indestructible.
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  Speaker 2: No, I think the point, well, I'm not sure they're
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  Speaker 2: trying to make that point. I think it pays to
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  Speaker 2: stay put, is the message they're delivering here, because any
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  Speaker 2: one of those thirty y odd items that I just
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  Speaker 2: listed might have been enough to spook somebody away from
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  Speaker 2: the stock market. In many cases, I.
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  Speaker 4: Know it wasn't over yet, Mike, maybe it should have been.
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  Speaker 4: I mean, the story's not We're never on the last
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  Speaker 4: page of the last chapter.
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  Speaker 2: We're not.
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  Speaker 3: But I think the unless you cashed.
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  Speaker 4: Out and then you don't care anymore. But for most
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  Speaker 4: of us, I mean the.
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  Speaker 2: Cash down and did what are sitting in cash?
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  Speaker 4: You bought an annuity or something. You say you were
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  Speaker 4: sixty five, you said, I don't need the growth anymore.
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  Speaker 4: That's probably not advisable for most Yeah, but I get.
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  Speaker 4: My point is for most people, the story continues to unfold,
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  Speaker 4: and we may have a very different retrospective a.
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  Speaker 2: Year ten year.
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  Speaker 1: Look.
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  Speaker 4: I mean, by any measure, the stock market is obscenely
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  Speaker 4: overvalued right now unless AI not only delivers very high
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  Speaker 4: rates of economic growth, but profit growth moreover, delivers those
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  Speaker 4: rates of profit growth to existing companies.
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  Speaker 2: The So this may not end well, of course, I mean.
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  Speaker 3: And you're not you weren't saying differently.
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  Speaker 2: I recognize that there will be a crash, There will
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  Speaker 2: be many more crashes.
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  Speaker 3: But if you're a long term investor, those crashes will
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  Speaker 3: be good.
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  Speaker 2: I guess that's opportunity. And I know I hate thinking.
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  Speaker 2: I love call you on statistics without preparing you for
• 12:54
  Speaker 2: calling you on statics.
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  Speaker 3: I'll just make it up. It's okay. Nobody, nobody cares anything.
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  Speaker 2: Like the investor that's got a thirty year horizon. Yeah,
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  Speaker 2: the messages don't worry about this stuff. The message of
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  Speaker 2: don't worry about this mess is because over thirty year
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  Speaker 2: time horizons. I guess first things First, do you know,
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  Speaker 2: has there ever been a thirty year time horizon in
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  Speaker 2: the last hundred years of stock market investing where an
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  Speaker 2: investor has lost money?
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  Speaker 4: Now, maybe if you use like the Stern data set
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  Speaker 4: from NYU Stern, you can get one hundred years because
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  Speaker 4: it goes back to nineteen twenty seven or twenty six.
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  Speaker 4: Maybe it starts, yeah, maybe very early on.
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  Speaker 3: It was close, but it's it's great.
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  Speaker 2: It's so rare.
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  Speaker 4: Yeah, which is of course extreme. Ninety percent drop peaked
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  Speaker 4: a trough and the dow that was so extreme. There's
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  Speaker 4: not gonna be another great depression because we jet us
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  Speaker 4: in the gold standard, so that's not gonna the the
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  Speaker 4: approximate cause to use your earlier rays, which I like,
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  Speaker 4: there's there's there's wide there's wide agreement that the monetary
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  Speaker 4: policy could prevent an they're great depression. There could be
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  Speaker 4: a prolonged period like the nineteen seventies were terrible for equities,
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  Speaker 4: but they were flat in nominal terms. In real terms,
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  Speaker 4: you lost money, but they were flat in nominal terms.
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  Speaker 4: So yeah, I think that is so that is such
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  Speaker 4: an extreme counterexample, Mike, to long story short here to
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  Speaker 4: finally get around answering your question that we can rule
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  Speaker 4: that out. I'm very comfortable. I think most researchers will
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  Speaker 4: be comfortable with saying, if the economy structure doesn't change dramatically, yeah,
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  Speaker 4: you should be at a thirty year horizon. Stocks are
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  Speaker 4: very likely to beat bonds, and that is the relevant comparison,
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  Speaker 4: by the way stocks relative to whatever else you could
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  Speaker 4: have done cash bonds.
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  Speaker 3: Right.
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  Speaker 2: The counterpoint that I always get when I make this point,
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  Speaker 2: whether it's you know, me talking about stocks over ten
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  Speaker 2: year return where they rarely lose money, or a twenty
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  Speaker 2: year return where it almost never happens, or a thirty
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  Speaker 2: year return where over the last hundred years, Mark and
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  Speaker 2: I would struggle to even find a three decade period
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: where stocks lost money. The counterpoint that I hear from
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  Speaker 2: a lot of folks is, well, that was fine when
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  Speaker 2: I was thirty five and investing in my four oh
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  Speaker 2: one K, But I'm not thirty five, Mike. Now I'm
• 14:58
  Speaker 2: sixty and and I've only got five years. Different storymore,
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  Speaker 2: it is a different story. But here's what I struggle
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  Speaker 2: to convey to people. I'm sixty years old, I'm five
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: years away from retirement, and my next question is, sounds good.
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  Speaker 2: Are you planning on spending your entire four oh one
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  Speaker 2: k the first year of your retirement? Because if you are,
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: then you're absolutely right you should have no money anywhere
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: near the stock market. But if you're like most people,
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: it's sixty years old, if you're a married couple, there's
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: a pretty good chance you still have a thirty year
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  Speaker 2: time horizon. I don't know what the odds.
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  Speaker 3: Are couple like sixteen years.
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: Old, but for a married couple at sixty years old,
• 15:39
  Speaker 2: I think there's something like a one in three chance
• 15:42
  Speaker 2: that at least one of you makes it till ninety.
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: That gives you a thirty year time horizon. And it
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: does not certainly mean that you take all of it
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: and be as aggressive as you were when you were
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: thirty five. But far too often I see people approach
• 15:56
  Speaker 2: that retirement stage and say, okay, well now I need
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: to get twice as conservative, or you know, take three
• 16:04
  Speaker 2: quarters of my portfolio and change what I'm doing, And
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: the answer is maybe yes. But by doing so, you
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: have to be aware of and concerned about all the
• 16:14
  Speaker 2: risks that affect you. And I will tell you from
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: my first hand experience, which might be different because I
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: primarily meet with people who have been successful enough to
• 16:24
  Speaker 2: save a fair bit of wealth. But for the vast
• 16:27
  Speaker 2: majority of those folks, what I have to convince them
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: of is, as concerned as you are about that next
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  Speaker 2: stock market crash, which we will get, and as great
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: as it's been for the last five years, who knows
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: what the next five years bring, you need to be
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: at least as concerned about the pressure of inflation on
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: this bucket of money and what that's going to do.
• 16:48
  Speaker 2: And if you reverse course too much because you're retiring
• 16:51
  Speaker 2: and you're nervous about things, then yeah, maybe you don't
• 16:54
  Speaker 2: have a problem with the stock next stock market crash,
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: but what happens to your scenario of inflation runs a
• 16:59
  Speaker 2: percentage point higher than you're anticipating as you approach that
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: period of time where you will no longer be saving
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: for your future. Looking at this stuff with a critical
• 17:11
  Speaker 2: eye and going beyond the simple sixty forty or target
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: date retirement fund to address your specific scenario is very
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: important if you have questions along those lines and you'd
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: like to learn more about what it is that Armstrong
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: does for its clients. Two ways to check that out.
• 17:30
  Speaker 2: One you can go to Armstrong Advisory dot com. The
• 17:34
  Speaker 2: other way, by the way, we're hosting an event on
• 17:36
  Speaker 2: Thursday of next sorry this week out in framing Him,
• 17:40
  Speaker 2: where we're talking about all sorts of visions like social
• 17:42
  Speaker 2: security and Medicare, and it's free to attend, also at
• 17:45
  Speaker 2: Armstrong Advisory dot com. Learn more, go to Armstrong Advisor
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  Speaker 2: dot com or give us a call at eight hundred
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: three nine three four zero zero one.
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: The proceeding was paid for by Armstrong Advisory Group, a
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: registered investment advisor. Nothing in the ad or in any
• 17:58
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• 18:01
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• 18:04
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• 18:07
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• 18:09
  Speaker 2: Auto insurance premiums saw massive increases during COVID because of
• 18:13
  Speaker 2: a few different factors, one being sorry it wasn't actually
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: during COVID. Premiums fell during COVID because nobody was driving.
• 18:21
  Speaker 2: Therefore there were no accidents. But after COVID, when car
• 18:26
  Speaker 2: prices went through the roof parts replacement parts were tough
• 18:29
  Speaker 2: to get a hold of, and prices generally went up
• 18:32
  Speaker 2: for both new and used cars. Insurance premiums followed suit
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: because making those repairs became increasingly expensive to do. So
• 18:40
  Speaker 2: I didn't want to misqualify that, but what we are
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: seeing this year is after those premiums readjusted to the
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: new normal, you're actually seeing insurers making a heavy bit,
• 18:50
  Speaker 2: a fair bit of change on how much they are
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: collecting in premiums compared to how much they're paying out,
• 18:56
  Speaker 2: and so they are actually lowering premiums here and there.
• 18:59
  Speaker 2: What this means for the average person it may pay
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: to shop around more than it has over the last
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: few years when it comes to auto insurance. Obviously this
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: is hyper localized and hyper specific based on your own
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: driving history. But the piece here from the Wall Street
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: Journal sites that the loss costs and claims expenses as
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: a percentage of premiums are in the low to high
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: eighty percent range, whereas typically they're targeting around ninety, meaning
• 19:26
  Speaker 2: these insurers are trying to expand and grow their business
• 19:29
  Speaker 2: quick break Wall Street Watch and Dan Stack from the
• 19:31
  Speaker 2: DAV coming.
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: Up next, bringing the latest financial news straight to your radio.
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: Every day. It's the Financial Exchange on the Financial Exchange
• 19:45
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• 19:49
  Speaker 2: Tell you out full.
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: Wall Street Watch, treking, the stocks, the data and the
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: headlines driving markets So far today right here on the
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: Financial Exchange Radio Network.
• 19:58
  Speaker 5: Our markets are negative territory, led by a selloff in
• 20:01
  Speaker 5: tech due to pressure from rising treasury yields, as the
• 20:04
  Speaker 5: three year that a new nineteen year high. Right now,
• 20:07
  Speaker 5: the dows down a quarter of a percenter, one hundred
• 20:10
  Speaker 5: and twenty points lower, SMP five hundred down six tens
• 20:13
  Speaker 5: of one percent of forty six points lower, Nasdaq selling
• 20:16
  Speaker 5: off one in a quarter percent or three hundred and
• 20:18
  Speaker 5: thirty one points lower. Rush two thousand down over one percent.
• 20:22
  Speaker 5: Ten year treasure reil flat at the moment at four
• 20:24
  Speaker 5: point seventy two percent, and oil up over one percent
• 20:28
  Speaker 5: now training at eighty five dollars a barrel. Home Depot
• 20:31
  Speaker 5: shares are rising over half a percent after the home
• 20:33
  Speaker 5: improvement retailer beat second quarter expectations on the top and
• 20:37
  Speaker 5: bottom lines and reaffirmed its full year of guidance. The
• 20:40
  Speaker 5: company's CFO told CNBC that it continues to operate in
• 20:45
  Speaker 5: frozen housing market conditions. We'll see more retailer earnings tomorrow
• 20:49
  Speaker 5: morning ahead of the open where lows Target TJX will
• 20:53
  Speaker 5: post their second quarter earnings. Meanwhile, several memory chip makers
• 20:57
  Speaker 5: pulling back from yesterday's gains. Micron Technology selling off seven percent,
• 21:02
  Speaker 5: while sk Heinex and sand Disk are falling by eight percent.
• 21:07
  Speaker 5: And according to the information ev maker Tesla is ready
• 21:10
  Speaker 5: for an August launch of its cyber cab or a
• 21:14
  Speaker 5: robo taxi without a steering wheel. Tesla stock is down
• 21:18
  Speaker 5: over half a percent. I'm Tucker Silvan, that is Wall
• 21:22
  Speaker 5: Street Watch.
• 21:23
  Speaker 2: Joining us now is Dan Stack from the Disabled American
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: Veterans Department of Massachusetts talk to us about the upcoming
• 21:31
  Speaker 2: race and other events. Dan, thanks for coming on. Appreciate it.
• 21:34
  Speaker 6: Mike as always really appreciate your having me. Thank you
• 21:37
  Speaker 6: very much.
• 21:38
  Speaker 2: So first things first, Dan, I have to check my calendar.
• 21:41
  Speaker 2: It's mid August and yet you managed to sell out
• 21:46
  Speaker 2: the race for the DAV five k in November. We
• 21:51
  Speaker 2: are months away here and it is filled. What makes
• 21:56
  Speaker 2: this race so special to people because clearly you know
• 21:59
  Speaker 2: it's gathering in US enough attention to sell out months
• 22:02
  Speaker 2: ahead of time.
• 22:04
  Speaker 6: I think if you have attended any of the past events,
• 22:07
  Speaker 6: and this is our sixth consecutive Sello, you feel that
• 22:11
  Speaker 6: euphoria that the public gives in regards to their appreciation
• 22:16
  Speaker 6: for what veterans have done, and especially this year, the
• 22:20
  Speaker 6: two hundred and fiftieth anniversary, I think that helped sell
• 22:24
  Speaker 6: this out more than anything else. It really, I mean,
• 22:27
  Speaker 6: fifty four percent of everyone who has basically coming to
• 22:32
  Speaker 6: this race is someone who has been there before. We
• 22:35
  Speaker 6: have three hundred and seventy five veterans that are coming.
• 22:39
  Speaker 6: It's just an amazing event where I know myself, my
• 22:43
  Speaker 6: entire family, and you know, it's very powerful that they
• 22:47
  Speaker 6: have pride in what their father has done in his
• 22:50
  Speaker 6: service to the country, and they're kind of like fulfilling
• 22:53
  Speaker 6: the fact that, hey, we want to show appreciation not
• 22:56
  Speaker 6: only to our fathers, but to all veterans that have
• 22:59
  Speaker 6: served this country over these two hundred and fifty years
• 23:03
  Speaker 6: that we have been in existence. So's it's an amazing,
• 23:07
  Speaker 6: amazing event and we were really proud to say that,
• 23:10
  Speaker 6: you know, it sold out eighty two days in advance,
• 23:14
  Speaker 6: and that eighty two days is because everyone got clicked
• 23:18
  Speaker 6: that button when they got the invitation and said yes,
• 23:22
  Speaker 6: I want to participate in the DAB five Day on
• 23:24
  Speaker 6: November the seventh at Castle Island.
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: So Dan, I know it sold out. I know people
• 23:29
  Speaker 2: cannot still register to race on November seventh, but I
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: do still want to talk about the event because you're
• 23:35
  Speaker 2: going to continue to do it for years to come,
• 23:37
  Speaker 2: and it is just an awesome event to even come
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: spectate down in Boston at Castle Island for those who
• 23:43
  Speaker 2: have not been to this specific space, you know, Ford
• 23:47
  Speaker 2: Independence at Castle Island a pretty special spot right in
• 23:50
  Speaker 2: the Boston Harbor. But talk to me about the event itself,
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: what goes on there. I could, I could do it,
• 23:56
  Speaker 2: but I'd rather you tell me about the you know,
• 23:58
  Speaker 2: the howitzer cannons, the fireboats that are out there. Pretty
• 24:02
  Speaker 2: special stuff that happens.
• 24:04
  Speaker 6: Well, you know, last year, unfortunately the howitzers weren't able
• 24:08
  Speaker 6: to be there because of the quote budget deficiencies that
• 24:12
  Speaker 6: were going on. You know, actually they happened to be
• 24:16
  Speaker 6: There was no money in the government at that time.
• 24:18
  Speaker 6: There was a shutdown, so we were very thankful that
• 24:22
  Speaker 6: the Conquered mine Man came down, you know, and they
• 24:25
  Speaker 6: actually started us off and shot and they're going to
• 24:29
  Speaker 6: be back this year. Along with the Howarzers we out
• 24:33
  Speaker 6: in the bay. We have the Boston fireboat that comes
• 24:36
  Speaker 6: out the Boston Fire Department hangs the huge flag at
• 24:40
  Speaker 6: the end of the causeway that everybody runs under. You know.
• 24:45
  Speaker 6: Not only that, one of the nicest part about our
• 24:48
  Speaker 6: five day is all of the food vendors that come out.
• 24:52
  Speaker 6: We have you know, Wahlbergers, the sausage guy. I can't
• 24:57
  Speaker 6: even name everybody that's there by me. We have all
• 25:00
  Speaker 6: of these individuals that come out and participate and provide
• 25:04
  Speaker 6: free food to all of the participates and their guests
• 25:08
  Speaker 6: that are there. It really is a family event. We
• 25:12
  Speaker 6: see more and more families coming to it. I'd love
• 25:16
  Speaker 6: to see how they all take their pictures after they
• 25:19
  Speaker 6: run with their families by, you know, with the Dad
• 25:22
  Speaker 6: sign behind it. You know, I love the solemn part
• 25:27
  Speaker 6: of everyone. You can see the veterans as they are passing,
• 25:31
  Speaker 6: the Heroes on the Hill, the Lou Pasqually Heroes on
• 25:34
  Speaker 6: the Hill, how they stop and salute all of the
• 25:37
  Speaker 6: flags representing all of the past veterans that have passed
• 25:40
  Speaker 6: over the last years. So I mean, yeah, it's an
• 25:44
  Speaker 6: amazing event. There's something to do the whole time you
• 25:46
  Speaker 6: were there, plenty of food to provide it. So we're
• 25:50
  Speaker 6: really excited about what's going to be happening this year
• 25:53
  Speaker 6: on November.
• 25:54
  Speaker 2: Seventh, it is dan a Run to honor veterans. Obviously
• 25:57
  Speaker 2: a lot of non veterans, non military, are running in
• 26:01
  Speaker 2: the event every year, but I saw that you had
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: some four hundred veterans that are actually registered to race
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: that this year. It does really speak to something. I
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: know you've seen growth from run clubs and universities who
• 26:13
  Speaker 2: have their cross country teams going, but you know, four
• 26:17
  Speaker 2: hundred veterans actually registered and really seems to show the
• 26:20
  Speaker 2: commitment that your team has to supporting this this specific
• 26:24
  Speaker 2: group here in Massachusetts. It's quite a thing.
• 26:27
  Speaker 6: One of the things about veterans period is when they
• 26:31
  Speaker 6: believe in the cause, they will support it. And to
• 26:34
  Speaker 6: have that have almost one third of everybody that is
• 26:37
  Speaker 6: going to be running to be veterans with their families,
• 26:42
  Speaker 6: that does an awful lot. And the DAV is a
• 26:44
  Speaker 6: very proud organization. We've been in existence over one hundred years.
• 26:48
  Speaker 6: We work very hard to make sure that the veterans
• 26:52
  Speaker 6: that we service are well taken care of, whether it
• 26:55
  Speaker 6: be their claims that have to go before the Veterans
• 26:58
  Speaker 6: Administration to make sure that they are properly adjudicated and
• 27:02
  Speaker 6: they received the exact compensation they're entitled to, or to
• 27:06
  Speaker 6: the twenty three and a half trips around New York
• 27:09
  Speaker 6: we have done with our transportation program to make sure
• 27:13
  Speaker 6: veterans get to and from their VA medical appointments, or
• 27:18
  Speaker 6: the mere fact that we have over in massitude two
• 27:21
  Speaker 6: hundred volunteer two hundred and fifty volunteers at all of
• 27:24
  Speaker 6: our VA medical centers that have given over twenty five
• 27:27
  Speaker 6: thousand powers of volunteerism. This really has saved the Veterans
• 27:32
  Speaker 6: Administration over a million dollars by us helping them make
• 27:37
  Speaker 6: sure that the veterans in our healthcare system are well
• 27:40
  Speaker 6: taken care of. So I am very proud to be
• 27:43
  Speaker 6: the chief executive Officer of the DAD Department of Massachusetts.
• 27:47
  Speaker 6: I know all that we do. Our volunteers and our
• 27:50
  Speaker 6: staff are out there every single day trying to help
• 27:55
  Speaker 6: a veteran and make sure that their life and their
• 27:57
  Speaker 6: family's life are a little easier in the future.
• 28:01
  Speaker 2: Dan, I know our focus is and should and should
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: be on the DAV five K. You also have another
• 28:06
  Speaker 2: event going on pretty soon. The golf Tournament is coming
• 28:10
  Speaker 2: up here. What can you tell me about that upcoming event.
• 28:13
  Speaker 6: We are very fortunate to have the Applied Underwriters basically Invitational,
• 28:20
  Speaker 6: which benefits the disabled American veterans. It's our corporate golf tournament.
• 28:25
  Speaker 6: It's held at Granted Links Golf Club. Is going to
• 28:29
  Speaker 6: be this year, is going to be August the thirty first.
• 28:33
  Speaker 6: It's up. It's a couple of weeks away, but I
• 28:36
  Speaker 6: do have some still. I still have about five or
• 28:38
  Speaker 6: six openings for teams if they want to join us,
• 28:42
  Speaker 6: and they can basically go on to DA v m
• 28:45
  Speaker 6: A dot org and click on the link and that'll
• 28:48
  Speaker 6: bring them up to what they need in order to
• 28:51
  Speaker 6: register sign up. We are very grateful to all of
• 28:56
  Speaker 6: those that are are silver sponsors for the DAV Golf Tournament.
• 29:02
  Speaker 6: Our Solver Sponsors is a five thousand dollars contribution. But
• 29:07
  Speaker 6: not only do they get a team in the corporate event,
• 29:10
  Speaker 6: their name and logo was also placed on the DAD
• 29:13
  Speaker 6: five K road share, so you know it's a lasting
• 29:16
  Speaker 6: memory and they help benefit both the DAD golf tournament
• 29:20
  Speaker 6: the five K. So if you, if anybody is out
• 29:23
  Speaker 6: there that loves golf and loves supporting veterans and you
• 29:26
  Speaker 6: know you can get your corporation put a team in,
• 29:29
  Speaker 6: we would love to have you again. That DA v
• 29:33
  Speaker 6: M A dot org. Click on a link corporate golf
• 29:36
  Speaker 6: tournament for the Applied Underwriters Invitational.
• 29:40
  Speaker 2: Dan Stack from the Disabled American Veterans Department Masters, Dan,
• 29:44
  Speaker 2: thanks so much for being here. We everybody here at
• 29:47
  Speaker 2: the Financial Exchange is so proud of the work that
• 29:48
  Speaker 2: you get guys do and just so happy to partner
• 29:50
  Speaker 2: with your year after year. So thank you for being here,
• 29:53
  Speaker 2: Thanks for filling us in and we will talk again soon.
• 29:56
  Speaker 6: Hey, Mike, just my last little thank you to you personally,
• 30:00
  Speaker 6: but more than anything, the money matters to the Armstrong
• 30:04
  Speaker 6: Group and the Financial Exchange. We wouldn't have sold out
• 30:08
  Speaker 6: if you hadn't been able to constantly put our PSA
• 30:12
  Speaker 6: up on your radio stations letting everybody know what we do.
• 30:17
  Speaker 6: So again, thank you so much for everything that you
• 30:19
  Speaker 6: have done in helping us make sure that we can
• 30:22
  Speaker 6: assure that veteran lives are going to be a little
• 30:24
  Speaker 6: leasing in the state of Massachusetts because of what we do.
• 30:27
  Speaker 6: Thanks again, Mike.
• 30:28
  Speaker 2: Thanks Dan. That's Dan Stack again for the CEO of
• 30:31
  Speaker 2: the Disabled American Veterans Department of Massachusetts. We are going
• 30:34
  Speaker 2: to take a quick break here on the Financial Exchange.
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: We'll be right back with some Stack Roulette.
• 30:39
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• 30:42
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• 31:18
  Speaker 5: Well, the twenty twenty six DAV five K Boston is
• 31:22
  Speaker 5: officially sold out. The race is set for Saturday, November
• 31:26
  Speaker 5: seventh at Fort Independence at Castle Island. But even if
• 31:30
  Speaker 5: you can't participate, you can still help our great American
• 31:33
  Speaker 5: heroes by making a donation.
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: Your gifts help.
• 31:35
  Speaker 5: Fund free rides to medical appointments for veterans, and the
• 31:38
  Speaker 5: nation's first dav ledhousing initiative providing homes for single veterans
• 31:43
  Speaker 5: in veteran families. Go to dav fivek dot Boston and
• 31:47
  Speaker 5: make your donation today. That's dav five k dot Boston.
• 31:51
  Speaker 2: What do you have for us for stack Roulette today?
• 31:54
  Speaker 3: Mark Mike.
• 31:54
  Speaker 4: Food inflation through July, the latest period for which we
• 31:57
  Speaker 4: have inflation figures is up about two percent one point
• 32:00
  Speaker 4: nine percent. The price of sugar and sweets, however, is
• 32:03
  Speaker 4: up twice that, nearly four percent three point seven percent.
• 32:07
  Speaker 4: So I'm rounding up a little bit.
• 32:09
  Speaker 2: Save America, bring down the cost of gummy sweets.
• 32:14
  Speaker 3: Raw sugar futures.
• 32:15
  Speaker 4: The reason I bring this up is Bloomberg printed a
• 32:18
  Speaker 4: story at eleven thirty raw sugar futures rising to their
• 32:20
  Speaker 4: highest level in more than a year. The most active
• 32:25
  Speaker 4: sugar contract rose as much as four point three percent.
• 32:27
  Speaker 4: I don't know how unusual a big a swing that is,
• 32:30
  Speaker 4: how large it is, but they make it sound sensationally large,
• 32:34
  Speaker 4: So I'm being dramatic. Prices in New York, the market
• 32:38
  Speaker 4: I guess in which these futures are traded up about
• 32:41
  Speaker 4: twenty percent in the past month, so no relief in sight.
• 32:45
  Speaker 2: Good thing we're all taking these GP ones because otherwise
• 32:48
  Speaker 2: grocier baskets would be pretty darn expensive. I don't know
• 32:52
  Speaker 2: if those weight loss drugs specifically help you out with
• 32:54
  Speaker 2: not being interested in sweets, but just it does more
• 32:59
  Speaker 2: than just your quan of food, because all of all
• 33:01
  Speaker 2: of the big food companies out there are kind of
• 33:03
  Speaker 2: shifting the formulas in there in their recipes to appeal
• 33:07
  Speaker 2: to people with you. In fact, sorry to completely diverge
• 33:10
  Speaker 2: from this, but I was driving by a restaurant in
• 33:13
  Speaker 2: my town the other day and I was, you know,
• 33:17
  Speaker 2: just parked at the traffic light, and I could see
• 33:18
  Speaker 2: inside the restaurant window and there's a little flyer on
• 33:20
  Speaker 2: the table, one of those like card flyers on the table,
• 33:24
  Speaker 2: and it was scan here to see our GLP. No,
• 33:29
  Speaker 2: it was are you on GLP ones? Scan here to
• 33:32
  Speaker 2: see our menu special menu?
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: Hm?
• 33:36
  Speaker 3: Smart, I guess so.
• 33:38
  Speaker 2: I've just never seen it so in your face before
• 33:42
  Speaker 2: in a restaurant like.
• 33:43
  Speaker 5: Was this a chain I zoom or is it just
• 33:46
  Speaker 5: a single.
• 33:47
  Speaker 2: Space restaurant, a single location restaurant in the town of
• 33:50
  Speaker 2: Needham and huh. I don't know. Am I wrong in
• 33:55
  Speaker 2: saying that I detected some shame early on from GLP
• 33:59
  Speaker 2: one users that like didn't want to talk about it
• 34:02
  Speaker 2: all that publicly, And has it now shifted from yeah,
• 34:06
  Speaker 2: some degree of embarrassment to oh, yeah, I'm on GLP ones,
• 34:09
  Speaker 2: I've lost a ton of weight, and I'm willing to
• 34:12
  Speaker 2: scan a QR code at my dining table in order
• 34:15
  Speaker 2: to browse the menu.
• 34:17
  Speaker 5: I just I think it's definitely way, way, way more
• 34:20
  Speaker 5: accepted than when it first came out.
• 34:22
  Speaker 2: Yeah, definitely, it's.
• 34:24
  Speaker 5: Like celebrated now, which is you know, yeah, loss is great.
• 34:26
  Speaker 2: Yeah, Yeah, I just I didn't expect it to be
• 34:29
  Speaker 2: so forward.
• 34:31
  Speaker 3: Like I kind of marketed in a restaurant.
• 34:34
  Speaker 2: In a restaurant, like I kind of expected, you know, hey,
• 34:37
  Speaker 2: check out our low calorie menu or you know, other items. No,
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: are you on GLP ones? Scan here for our special menu.
• 34:47
  Speaker 2: I thought that was very forward for a restaurant. But
• 34:50
  Speaker 2: I mean, there's a reason they do. It must be
• 34:52
  Speaker 2: working to some degree. But yeah, I just found that
• 34:55
  Speaker 2: fascinating and completely forgot about it until right now. You
• 34:59
  Speaker 2: seem like you want to say.
• 35:00
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm not sure how I feel about it. You're
• 35:05
  Speaker 4: so someone who's on the drug is trying to lose
• 35:08
  Speaker 4: weight there they may or may not be self conscious
• 35:11
  Speaker 4: to make them very conspicuously scan a code. It's it's
• 35:16
  Speaker 4: a it's a public declaration that I'm on a drug
• 35:20
  Speaker 4: from weight loss, but it's it also should be like encouraged,
• 35:25
  Speaker 4: like we celebrate when people wear a nicotine patch or
• 35:28
  Speaker 4: I guess these days take a take something to wean
• 35:32
  Speaker 4: you off.
• 35:32
  Speaker 3: I guess it says we need to change.
• 35:35
  Speaker 4: Our It should not be shamed because we want to,
• 35:38
  Speaker 4: if only to get my own insurance premiums down. I
• 35:40
  Speaker 4: want to encourage anybody who thinks that they're overweight to
• 35:42
  Speaker 4: lose weight.
• 35:43
  Speaker 2: And like, you know, does anybody feel shame about being
• 35:46
  Speaker 2: on a statin? That's sort of what that's.
• 35:47
  Speaker 4: Kind of what I mean being overweight is you're probably predisposed.
• 35:52
  Speaker 4: Many people are anyway, It's absoltely nothing to be embarrassed about.
• 35:56
  Speaker 2: On board, Yeah, I think we need to just I
• 35:58
  Speaker 2: guess it was surprised, not distaste or anything like that.
• 36:02
  Speaker 2: I was just surprised that the company that the restaurant decided, Yeah,
• 36:06
  Speaker 2: this is something we want to be very public because.
• 36:09
  Speaker 4: It's impolite to comment on somebody's weight. It's not impolite
• 36:11
  Speaker 4: to say, hey, quit smoking. It might be a little
• 36:14
  Speaker 4: bit impolite to say, hey, you lost weight, and.
• 36:16
  Speaker 2: You know what is better than going to the table
• 36:18
  Speaker 2: and be like, oh, that person could use our low
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: calorie menu. Maybe I should ask them.
• 36:23
  Speaker 3: Maybe that.
• 36:27
  Speaker 2: Airlines are in a standoff over price cuts as jet
• 36:30
  Speaker 2: fuel costs are easing a bit here, I don't think
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: they're going to be price cutting any time all that soon,
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: because as much as we have seen jet fuel prices
• 36:41
  Speaker 2: ease over the last few weeks a little bit. Is
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: there anyone that is sitting here today looking about looking
• 36:47
  Speaker 2: around at the situation in Iran and saying, hey, you
• 36:50
  Speaker 2: know what, that seems stable enough that I'd be willing
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: to lock in lower profits on airline tickets or gas
• 36:58
  Speaker 2: prices for the next six months. That I'm pretty convinced
• 37:01
  Speaker 2: we're going to see energy prices calm down over the
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: next six months. Because I'm certainly not confident. I don't
• 37:06
  Speaker 2: know why an airline executive would be. Do you feel confident?
• 37:10
  Speaker 4: No, of course, not that energy prices are gonna stay
• 37:14
  Speaker 4: where they are come down. Yeah, No, I feel sounds
• 37:18
  Speaker 4: like a foolish view.
• 37:20
  Speaker 2: So, yeah, they have eased a little bit recently, airlines
• 37:24
  Speaker 2: don't seem to be moving on ticket prices. Furthermore, the
• 37:29
  Speaker 2: you know, kind of first company to cut on prices
• 37:32
  Speaker 2: spirit airlines doesn't exist anymore. So I don't see a
• 37:35
  Speaker 2: lot of domestic pressure for that to happen. So unfortunately,
• 37:39
  Speaker 2: I just don't see much of a case for gas
• 37:41
  Speaker 2: prices to come down, airline tickets or anything that's really
• 37:45
  Speaker 2: a petroleum derivative to to help us outime.
• 37:48
  Speaker 3: If they stay where they are.
• 37:49
  Speaker 4: Of course, the implications for the bigger picture are positive.
• 37:53
  Speaker 3: We're not gonna get more inflation. Yeah, that's stating the obvious.
• 37:56
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it doesn't mean airline tickets are gonna come down.
• 37:59
  Speaker 2: Stocks remain in negative territory here. As we close out
• 38:02
  Speaker 2: the show, Dow off quarter of percent now s and
• 38:05
  Speaker 2: p off half a percent. Now's back down a little
• 38:07
  Speaker 2: bit more than one percent. We'll be back at it
• 38:09
  Speaker 2: tomorrow with more earnings. Have a great rest of your day, folks,
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: and see you in twenty two hours.