Latest / Closing Market Report / Aug 19 | Closing Market Report
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- cmr260819 This August 19, 2026, broadcast of the Closing Market Report, hosted by Todd Gleason, provides a comprehensive update on agricultural commodities, field conditions, and global weather impacts. In the opening segment, Greg Johnson of Total Grain Marketing discusses recent fluctuations in corn and soybean prices, noting how farmer selling behaviors and the critical wild card of Chinese export purchases are influencing the market. Next, field scouts Sherman Newlin and Oliver Sloup share on-the-ground insights from the Pro Farmer Crop Tour in Iowa and Illinois, respectively, with both reporting underwhelming corn and soybean yields stemming from early-season weather stress and wet springs. Finally, meteorologist Drew Lerner highlights extreme global weather events—including severe flooding in the Philippines and historic drought in France—while emphasizing the U.S. Midwest's immediate need for warmer, drier conditions to support late-season crop maturation. 00:36 Ag Markets with Greg Johnson, Total Grain Marketing 08:31 Pro Farmer Crop Tour | Iowa and Illinois 14:45 Ag Weather with Drew Lerner, World Weather Inc. --- Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant university in Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, this is the Closing Market Report for the 19th day of August, 2026. Coming up, we’ll talk about the commodity markets, crop tour, and the weather. In Chicago, futures finished the corn about a dime higher, soybeans were up around twenty cents, and the wheat futures finished fifteen to eighteen cents higher. We’ll hear more about that in just a moment right here on this Wednesday edition of the Closing Market Report that comes to you from Illinois Public Media. announce: Todd Gleason’s services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. 00:36 Ag Markets with Greg Johnson, Total Grain Marketing Todd Gleason: Greg Johnson from TGM, Total Grain Marketing, now joins us to talk about what’s been happening in the marketplace. He’s here at the grain elevator owned by TGM in Champaign County. Hi Greg, thanks much for being with us. Crop scouts are out and about with Pro Farmer this week. They’ve been finding exactly what you have been talking about: a variable crop. Can you tell me what you think about the crop as a whole across the United States and what it looks like here in our part of the world? Greg Johnson: I’d say before August, we were looking at maybe a slightly above-average crop. The east was too wet early—Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, and Eastern Illinois were too wet. Then you go out west into Kansas, Missouri, and the Dakotas, they were a little on the dry side. Most of Illinois, Iowa, and Minnesota were in the Goldilocks spot, which was just about right. That’s where we were. Then we’ve had all these storms come through in August, so I think we’ve taken a few bushels off that crop. I don’t think we’re at a disaster-type number, but instead of being a couple of bushels above trendline yield, now I think we’re probably a couple of bushels below trendline yield. Todd Gleason: I have a question about the movements in both the corn and soybean charts. Since the month of August began, and we can look back at July where we had a high that would seem almost seasonal, things dropped at the beginning of August and we’ve been counter-seasonal since that time. Are there good fundamental reasons behind either the move in the corn or the soybeans in your opinion? Greg Johnson: Let’s take soybeans first. Farmers sold last year’s beans too early in retrospect because the price just kept going higher. We were below ten dollars a year ago, so when beans got to eleven dollars this year, farmers sold most of their old crop beans out of their inventory and actually started selling new crop beans. It’s a profitable level, and I don’t want to criticize anyone for selling eleven-dollar beans; we can make money at that. But because the market kept going up, they feel like they sold too low, too early. They don’t want to make that mistake again, so the selling has dried up. If they get to twelve dollars cash, I think that will trigger another round of selling, but until then, they are content to leave what they’ve got sold on the books and not add to it. As far as corn is concerned, we never really have been back to the highs. We’re still twenty cents off the contract highs we made in May, and that May rally only lasted for about a day and a half. Most farmers did not get an opportunity to sell corn at what they would consider good levels. That’s why we’re not seeing the corn market do as much as the bean market, because the farmers will sell corn as we approach those old contract highs, whereas with beans, they feel they’ve sold too much too early and are reticent to sell anymore right now. Todd Gleason: The stocks-to-use ratio is very low, in that seven percent range for new crop soybeans, ten percent for corn. I think ten percent for corn would tell us a tipping point, so that’s neutral, but stocks-to-use for soybeans should be viewed as bullish. The question is how much more bullish that market actually could be, particularly going into the harvest season. Greg Johnson: Now we get to the wild card: China. China continues to make spot purchases of soybeans from the US, which is the good news. The unknown is that the USDA already has penciled in to buy 25 million metric tons, which is almost a billion bushels. To put that in perspective, we grow 4.4 to 4.5 billion, so basically a quarter of the beans get exported to China. They are a huge wild card. Are they going to buy the entire 25 million metric tons? We hope so. With all the purchases they’ve made in the last month, we have them up around fifty percent. They’ve made a good dent into what the USDA says they’re going to buy. Will they buy the entire 25 million, more, or less? We don’t know, but that recent China buying is probably the biggest reason for the rally in soybeans. Todd Gleason: President Xi is due into the United States at the end of the month of September. Does that give producers time at these levels maybe to consider when to make a sale? Greg Johnson: I think so. The perception is that President Trump will do everything he can to encourage China to buy more soybeans than just the 25 million metric tons. From China’s point of view, if the US can lower tariffs on the products China ships to the US, that’s a trillion-dollar industry. I think they would be more than willing to spend a few billion dollars if they can get tariffs back on trillions of dollars of their products. There’s reason for optimism in the beans. Farmers are hoping that when Trump and Xi get together, good news will come out of that meeting. We’ll have to wait and see. Todd Gleason: Spillover effects for corn? Greg Johnson: Spillover effects for corn, yes. In addition to the 25 million metric tons, the agreement supposedly says China will spend another 17 billion dollars on US commodities, non-soybeans. That can be pork, cattle, wheat, but it could be corn. 17 billion dollars is a lot to spend. If China shows up to buy corn, as you said, the tipping point on the stocks-to-use ratio is ten percent. We could go either way, and if China buys corn, that stocks-to-use ratio drops into single digits. There’s your reason for optimism in corn. The flip side is farmers haven’t sold much corn, so any rally will be met with pretty good farmer selling, which might keep a cap on the rally. The funds are also long corn and soybeans, and you never know when they’re going to reverse positions. But there’s reason for optimism. It doesn’t feel like a runaway market, so farmers just need to figure out what’s a profitable level for them based on updated yield prospects and have offers ready to sell at levels where they can make money. Todd Gleason: And keep your eye on the USMCA negotiations. Thank you too for being with us today. We appreciate that, Greg. Greg Johnson: No problem, thanks Todd. announce: Greg Johnson is with TGM, that’s totalgrainmarketing.com. 08:31 Pro Farmer Crop Tour | Iowa and Illinois Todd Gleason: We’ve been following all week long the Pro Farmer crop tour, both the eastern and the western legs. Sherman Newlin now joins us. He’s with Zaner Ag Hedge and is traveling through the state of Iowa, on the western edge today. Thanks Sherman for being with us. What have you seen so far today? Sherman Newlin: It’s been a little disappointing, in my opinion, from what we’ve seen in the past. Things look green, but corn has been under some stress at some point earlier on. They’ve had some rain to help green it back up. We started around Arcadia, Iowa, and have made five stops so far in Ida, Sac, and Woodbury counties. Our first stop was surprisingly disappointing at 131. The highest stop we’ve had was our fourth one, which went 250. But our current average is 187 so far. That’s 18 percent down from last year and 6 percent down over the three-year average. So kind of disappointing, kind of surprising actually. Todd Gleason: What else have you seen as it relates to the corn crop? Sherman Newlin: Stands are all over the place, kind of on the thin side. I’ve seen plants that came up late and didn’t put on an ear, and the stalk is puny. I see that at home too, but I’m noticing it a little more here right now. I’m surprised we’re down as much as we are and haven’t found any really good yields yet. As far as the beans are concerned, the average is 1131. That’s down 33 percent from last year and down 22 percent over the three-year average. So beans, for whatever reason, are surprisingly low for us. Todd Gleason: So given what the bean crop is doing and what the corn crop is doing, I’m going to guess you’re not coming to conclusions that producers cut back on seeding rate or nitrogen rate? Sherman Newlin: No, I can’t tell that. Everything is staying pretty well green. I don’t see any nitrogen loss, maybe a little lack of moisture in it, but it’s not overly wet like we were in Indiana yesterday. I’m assuming part of this area getting dry for a while has been a big part of the lower yields we’re seeing. More rain right now is not going to help the corn crop over here get any better; it will just help hold on to what it has. As far as the beans go, yes, beans always need more rain until they start turning, and we haven’t seen any beans up here starting to turn yet. Todd Gleason: Thank you, Sherman. Sherman Newlin is with Zaner Ag Hedge and traveling on the western leg of the Pro Farmer crop tour. On the eastern leg in the state of Illinois is Oliver Sloup. He is with Blue Line Ag Futures and near Macomb at this point. Thank you much for joining us, Oliver. What have you found so far today? Oliver Sloup: Thanks for having me. Always good to hop on with you. We’re working our way west through the state. We started out this morning with about an hour’s drive south to get to our first county, near Blue Mound, just south of Decatur, and worked our way to Taylorville and then west and back north. We’ve been covering good ground, about ten stops so far, the bulk of those in District 6. Right now, things look a little bit underwhelming, which is in line with what we’ve seen through the first couple of days of the crop tour. Things have improved as we’ve worked west, but still a little disappointing. Through those first few stops in District 6, our average yield count is about 193.77. That would be down 2 percent from the Pro Farmer five-year average for that district, so a little softer. I’ve been talking with scouts on other legs of the tour and they’ve seen slightly better results than that. It’ll be interesting to see what Pro Farmer comes out with this evening. All in all, I think the yield is really just taking a hit from the lower ear counts and population. I think a lot of that can be attributed to the wet spring we had. Obviously, those first few days in Ohio and Indiana were extremely wet with standing water in almost every field. That’s going to be something to keep an eye on, particularly for beans over the next couple of weeks, to see how that has an impact. Talking with a lot of farmers, it’s a big question mark. Will it have an impact? Absolutely. How much of one is still to be determined. As we’ve worked west, things have dried out a little bit more, which is encouraging, so we don’t have to worry as much about that into Western Illinois and Iowa. Todd Gleason: Thank you much, Oliver. Oliver Sloup is with Blue Line Ag Futures and traveling in Illinois today on the Pro Farmer crop tour. Last night, Pro Farmer announced the Nebraska and Indiana tour results. They show a 163-bushel average for corn in Nebraska. There is a 14-bushel differential, so 177 or 178 is closer. 183 was the USDA’s August number. Indiana yielded 183.5, and the differential puts that at about 189.25. 206 is the USDA number. We’ll continue to follow along with the Pro Farmer crop tour for the rest of the week. 14:45 Ag Weather with Drew Lerner, World Weather Inc. Todd Gleason: Let’s check the weather forecast across the planet to see how growing regions are faring. Drew Lerner is here from World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City. Hello again, Drew, thank you for being with us. Drew Lerner: Good afternoon. Hope you’re having a good week. Todd Gleason: We are. I want to start with some of the crazy weather we’ve been having around the planet, maybe not always in the biggest growing regions, but there are strange things happening. What have you been watching? Drew Lerner: The latest statistic that is mind-blowing is coming out of the Philippines. They have had an enormous amount of rain over the last few weeks. It actually started in late July, but in August alone, looking at August 1st through the 18th, the western half of Luzon Island has had between 14 and 32 inches of rain. That isn’t so unusual for them in the tropical season, but there are a few locations in west-central Luzon that have had more than 67 inches of rain since the first of this month. That is mind-blowing. There is a lot of rice produced in that area of Luzon, and there are a lot of people living there, so the flooding and impact on infrastructure and personal property has been horrific. They’re taking a little break right now, it’ll last into Friday, and then it’s going to start raining again over the weekend with heavy rain returning during the work week next week. This is an ongoing event that needs to be closely monitored. While it’s raining crazy in the Philippines, it’s not raining in Indonesia in the south. That is directly associated with El Niño, and that is going to continue for a few months yet. The number of wildfires in Western Kalimantan, Indonesia, has increased from just three fires about a week and a half ago to about seven now. This is just the beginning; we will see that whole area light up with fires by the time we get to the end of the year. So that’s something to keep an eye on. Other areas impacted by El Niño in the realm of dryness include southern Thailand, parts of southern India, and a portion of central Myanmar. The other place that has been exciting with crazy rain, of course, was Hawaii. I’m sure everybody heard about Hurricane Lane that passed by the southwest coast, producing 30 to 43 inches of rain, causing a lot of problems there. And then, of course, there’s France. France is having one of the worst droughts they’ve had on record. The river and stream flows are horrifically low. Folks that I know took a tour on the rivers in Germany and France, and they ended up having to walk and move from one raft into another in order to get through the river system because the ground showed to the point where they couldn’t float. France has had a crazy hot summer, record heat, and it is not associated with El Niño. It’s part of a drought that started a year ago. Todd Gleason: And quickly here in the United States, we need the sunshine, maybe a few periodic showers would be great. What do you think? Drew Lerner: These cool temperatures are a concern. We’re really not getting much heat units out of the daily warmth. Temperatures are stuck in the 70s and lower 80s for yet another full week, maybe eight or nine days. We still have this excessive moisture occurring from eastern Nebraska into Ohio and West Virginia, and that’s a lot of important real estate there. Some areas are in worse shape than others, but we definitely need to see a complete stoppage of the rain for a little while and some warmer temperatures to get these soybeans back on track. They don’t like their feet being wet this long and certainly don’t like the cooler temperatures. So we’ll keep our fingers crossed that maybe in the very last days of this month and more likely the first week of September we can turn this around a bit. Todd Gleason: Thanks much. We’ll talk with you again soon. Drew Lerner: You bet. Have a great day. Todd Gleason: You too. Drew Lerner is with World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City and joined us on this Wednesday edition of the Closing Market Report that came to you from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world, online, on demand at willag.org.