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Nov 13 | Closing Market Report · Closing Market Report

• 0:00
  Todd Gleason: From the Land to Grant University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois. This is the closing market report for the November 2025. I'm extension's Todd Gleason. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Matt Bennett. He's at agmarket.net.
• 0:14
  I'll tell you a bit more about RNG, your renewable natural gas made from livestock manure and possibly to be used to ship ocean going freight. And then we'll turn our attention to the weather forecast with Mike Tenor from T Storm Weather. That's all on this Thursday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the good of all.
• 0:40
  announcer: Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension.
• 0:45
  Todd Gleason: December corn in Chicago finished at $4.42 and 3 quarters. That was up 6 and a quarter cents. The March at 04:55 and a half, up 6 and a quarter. In May, $4.64 ended up 5 and 3 quarters of a cent for the day. January soybeans at $11.47, 13 and a quarter higher.
• 1:02
  The March at eleven fifty six and three quarters, up twelve and three quarters. And November beans, 11 21 and three quarters on their settlement price, up 6¢. Bean meal futures, $7.40 higher. The bean oil for the day at $50.25, a settlement price down 37¢. Wheat futures, soft red at $5.35 and three quarters, a quarter of a cent lower, and the hard red December contract for both at $5.25 and three quarters up a quarter of a cent.
• 1:29
  You're listening to the closing market report on this Thursday afternoon. It is public radio for the farming world from Illinois public media. Matt Bennett from agmarket.net now joins us to take a look at the marketplace. Hi, Matt. Thanks for being with us today.
• 1:43
  Matt Bennett: Yeah. Thanks for having me.
• 1:45
  Todd Gleason: Let's talk about this move in the marketplace. Corn and soybean futures managed to make some pretty healthy gains today. Did they tick through anything technically of importance prior to the time we get to tomorrow's USDA crop production and WANSD reports?
• 2:01
  Matt Bennett: Well, there's no doubt that, you know, I mean, beans are above all your moving averages, first of all. From a long term standpoint, you could certainly, make a claim that these beans have actually broken, you know, through some resistance. You know, there were times today whenever they looked a little stronger than others, backed off a little bit, but by all means, there's a lot of buying coming in here. There's a fair amount of money flowing to commodities. You know?
• 2:24
  And I think that there's just a large thought process that maybe some reallocation assets is is probably going on here. I I you do have some reason to believe that, you know, you should maybe consider buying some beans based upon South American weather. I mean, after talking to Eric Snograss earlier this week, you know, he he he felt like Southern Brazil, Argentina is something we shouldn't be ignoring. So by all means, I think that there's there's probably a little bit of reason for it, but by all it's it's definitely some real reallocation is going on as well.
• 2:57
  Todd Gleason: So it is not driven, as some might think, by purchases that China is making at this time, and it appears they actually haven't been in according to the data I've been reading.
• 3:09
  Matt Bennett: They certainly haven't been in to the degree that we thought they were gonna come in. You know? I mean, they've definitely been buying Brazilian beans still. You know? And so there's a lot of question marks as to is there a clause in there that says as long as they're comparative.
• 3:22
  I mean, that's problematic for sure. I mean, that's not really the language that we received. And so, you know, there's a lot of question marks there still. Even with that being said, though, they're still buying soybeans overall, you know, and so we know that if they're buying beans, demand's still strong for beans, and there's no doubt that our balance sheet might look a little bit different, but the world balance sheet certainly won't.
• 3:46
  Todd Gleason: What do you expect the WASDE to show tomorrow? And, of course, the crop production report, we can get to those numbers too.
• 3:52
  Matt Bennett: You know, if I had a dollar for every time I've been asked what I think the WASDE would say, John, we both have enough money to go out to eat on. But I tell you, it's been one of those deals where it feels like the tray is expecting, you know, at least some sort of a supportive type number. Average trade guess at $1.84 is really a little higher than what I thought we would see as far as the trade guesses go with corn. I mean, in all honesty, I've heard a lot of growers say they had a a good crop, maybe a little bit under a year ago. We've had a handful say best thing they've ever seen, you know, and then we've had a handful say that it was a train wreck.
• 4:26
  So I think it's gotta be somewhere in the middle. Big question mark is, what was last year's yield? You know? I mean, when we look at them adding stocks to that September report, that tells me that that 24 crop is actually bigger than what they'd said. It might have been a one eighty one.
• 4:42
  So, you know, are we above last year? Yeah. Probably, but I don't believe that we're above it by a whole lot. As far as soybeans go, I feel like it'll be fairly close to that September number. If you look historically, beans actually, from a percentage standpoint, have a bigger change from September to November than what corn does over the last several years.
• 5:01
  So, you know, maybe you get a surprise there, but I I still feel like it's pretty good sized bean crop.
• 5:06
  Todd Gleason: Now coming back to this reallocation. If there is a reallocation of assets, you're really talking about money moving from one place to another. How long does it impact the marketplace? I I know it's probably a large enough number that it can drive the market in one direction or the other, but is it a temporary push, and does rebalancing happen very quickly?
• 5:29
  Matt Bennett: Yeah. Mean, it's it's it all depends on a whole host of things. I I feel pretty confident that the funds took a look at the grains, speed grains, and said, hey. You know, we're looking at a situation where these assets look a little cheap to us. Of course, they must have looked at, you know, the livestock situations, particularly cattle, especially with some of the rhetoric coming through social media from the president, you know, that they were gonna drive those prices down.
• 5:54
  I think it kinda pushed them out. You know? So I feel pretty confident that some of that money flowed from that catalog over to buying some grains. Now do we see it on a bigger broader base? Pretty tough to tell considering, you know, just this week, we had an all new all time high for the Dow, all time high for silver yesterday.
• 6:14
  Gold's still off the high, but, you know, we've seen several different places where money's flowing in. So I think government reopening has probably freed a little bit of money up, And so who knows? Maybe it maybe it would last a little bit longer. But I think as a producer, you got you just don't wanna ignore these types of rallies, particularly with beans over a dollar rally off harvest lows is probably not something we should ignore.
• 6:35
  Todd Gleason: Do you suppose the trade is looking forward to what the Supreme Court might be saying as well when it makes a decision about tariffs and the legality that the president might have or may not have to impose them?
• 6:48
  Matt Bennett: Well, I mean, they probably are, but it certainly hasn't scared them off of buying beans. I mean, it's been, to be honest, super impressive to see this type of a rally. I'm not surprised we rallied, but to the tune that we did, I think it's it's been impressive to say the least. So if they're concerned, you know, about the supreme court decision, then maybe beans should be higher yet because by all means, we just continue to see these beans getting bought, which has been, you know, super impressive to say the least.
• 7:22
  Todd Gleason: Hey. Thanks much. We appreciate you taking time with me today.
• 7:24
  Matt Bennett: Oh, absolutely. Thanks for having me.
• 7:26
  Todd Gleason: That is Matt Bennett. He is with agmarket.net. In today's agricultural news, Chinese purchases of soybeans from The United States appeared to have stalled only two weeks after The US touted a wide ranging trade truce between the two countries. Chinese imports of American cargoes seemed to have faltered after a flurry of orders in October. That's according to traders who asked not to be identified while discussing confidential information.
• 7:58
  The traders said they were not aware of any new shipments, Bloomberg said. The pause is causing significant uncertainty, say the traders, over whether the biggest consumer of American soybeans will be back in the market at the level the White House has claimed to expect. An agricultural broker with Stonex in Singapore said many experts view China's commitment to purchase 12,000,000 tons of US soybeans this year to be more of a diplomatic gesture than a firm agreement. On a related note, President Donald Trump says it would be an economic disaster for the nation if the supreme court overturns his tariffs. Trump warned the supreme court against overturning his emergency tariffs in a case challenging his use of the 1977 law.
• 8:44
  Donald Trump: Trillions of dollars have been taken in or gotten in terms of investment from the tariffs. And so if that were ever reversed, it would be a disaster. Frankly, it would be a national security problem for our country.
• 8:57
  Todd Gleason: Especially given the rare earth's mineral deal Trump made with China, while farmers complain its farm top markets in China and elsewhere. But the president is betting his power to tariff will be upheld.
• 9:09
  Donald Trump: And nobody thinks it's gonna be reversed. I think we had a very good court case. As you know, it's before the supreme court right now.
• 9:15
  Todd Gleason: But the high court's six conservative justices seemed mixed in their reviews. Trump, for his part, argues his tariffs have worked to rebalance trade.
• 9:24
  Donald Trump: They were not taking our our agriculture. We were taking massive amounts of their it was so unfair.
• 9:29
  Todd Gleason: And history shows tariffs also invite retaliation, from China, forcing the president to broker a deal with Beijing that recouped some, but not all, the lost US soybean sales. And that's a look at today's agricultural news. You may find more news from the University of Illinois, the ag economist, the crop scientist, and the animal scientist on our website at willag.org. That's willag.0rg. There you'll also find a way to register for the December 12 farm assets conference to be held in Bloomington at the Agra Center.
• 10:06
  It should be a fantastic day. We're gonna kick off that day by hearing from Joe Jansen. He'll give us a commodity outlook. To rather set the tone for the day, we'll include livestock this year with Britney Goodrich, and then we'll go over crop budgets with Nick Paulson. That'll set the whole day's tone.
• 10:24
  We'll turn our attention to those folks who are really working on your behalf as associations a bit later in the morning with Todd Mayne, who's the director of development for the Illinois Soybean Association, Mark Wilson, who's the chair of the United States Grain and Bioproducts Council, and Colin Waters from the Illinois Corn Growers Association. And then we'll check-in with Scott Irwin about biofuels policies, the RFS, RINs, and what the possibilities might be for FAME or regular soy diesel and renewable diesel coming forward. He has an idea that things may be turning bullish for that, And that's just the first half of the morning, the farm assets conference. You can find all the details online at willag.org. There is so very much more, and we hope you will join us on Bloomington on the December.
• 11:18
  It's a Friday at the AGRA Center, but you need to get yourself registered now. You can do that at willag.org, willag.0rg, or on the PharmDoc Daily website. Yesterday over the noon hour, I listened in on a webinar hosted by Sarah Wyatt and Co. And AGGRIPOLSE. It was focused on biogas or renewable natural gas made from mostly livestock waste.
• 11:52
  It can be made from commodities too, but in this case livestock manure. Now the target use would be for maritime shipping. Anaerobic digesters have been used for decades to capture methane and reuse it to locally power farms. This would incentivize that capture to take advantage of a push outside of The United States to reuse waste on the global trade routes. During the conversation, three primary presenters, all from companies hoping to be involved in the RNG boom, popped a natural gas pipeline map up on the screen.
• 12:25
  This is how the RNG would be transported. I had some questions about that and typed them in for Sarah Wyant to ask.
• 12:33
  Sarah Wyant: Rod, I'm gonna toss this to you, and then if anybody else wants to jump in. But Todd Gleason, who many of you know from Illinois, asked whether the pipelines are set up to carry fuels in both directions, and when I looked at your map, I thought, Wow, we're touching every part of rural America and urban, especially with some of our ports, but he asked whether it looks like Illinois is short of pipelines and what parts of the country you think are most poised to take advantage of maritime?
• 13:02
  Rod Snyder: I'm going start by saying that one of the benefits of RNG is that it is a drop in fuel, it's you're able to inject it directly into existing natural gas pipelines. That's one of the upsides.
• 13:13
  Todd Gleason: That's Rod Snyder of Junction Strategies. It's a consulting firm specializing in agriculture, climate, and environmental policy as well as supply chain sustainability issues. He deferred the question Ben Krueger of Riceland Renewables.
• 13:26
  Rod Snyder: I'm gonna throw a lifeline to Ben, who is more of an expert on the pipeline conversation in terms of geographies as well as access to ports. Ben can, can help me out here on that piece.
• 13:38
  Ben Kruger: Yeah, and Mike, don't want to chip in as well? He had the he had issued the map up on a slide, but, I think we're really well positioned, for, renewable natural gas and or LNG to flow in any direction that's needed to get to a port. And then in particular, it depends a little bit how the accounting rules are written, if we can mass balance our way to things. I think where we have ample feedstocks, ample production today or the possibility for new growth. I think, you know, the country is ready today and well positioned for future growth to hit it.
• 14:10
  Mike, I'll let you opine if there's anything else we missed in that.
• 14:13
  Todd Gleason: Michael is Michael O'Laughlin at Vanguard Renewables. Now before we get to him, I posted a second question as soon as Ben Krueger said, it depends on how the accounting rules are written, I. E. Guidance. If we can mass balance.
• 14:27
  A mass balance triggered meme. This generally means, and we'll use a shipping company as an example, They say we'll agree to purchase RNG but since we cannot get it to the port we're going to fill the ship's tanks with regular LNG or liquid natural gas instead. They get credit for the purchase but don't actually use RNG in the ship. En masse, it balances. Now here's Michael Laughlin on using the existing natural gas pipeline network in The United States to transport RNG.
• 14:58
  Micheal O'Laughlin: No. I think that there's a great network of both regional and then interstate connections. So, our company has over 50 projects across The United States that we're developing. You know? And more than half of them, the projects have direct access to the grid.
• 15:14
  The ones that don't though, we leverage something that we call virtual pipeline where essentially we're trucking the gas to an injection station. So let's just say, for example, you have a property, a farm opportunity where you're not directly connected into the grid in that location. The United States has enough grid pipeline within proximity that it is not only cost effective, but still offers a low carbon intensity to actually truck a short distance to be able to inject. So, again, a very unique situation The United States finds itself in, to be able to see this demand expansion.
• 15:53
  Todd Gleason: So mostly everyone danced around the first question I asked. That's because the answer is yes and no. Some, but not all, pipelines can flow in both directions. Not really the point of the webinar, of course, but important if RNG is to be produced in the Midwest and shipped to ports along the coast. The point is that there may be one more way to use an agricultural product to power global transportation, in this case biogas, RNG, made from livestock manure moving ocean going freight.
• 16:25
  In the next couple of days, AGGRIPULSE will post this webinar to their website. The title is the race for renewable fuels to improve world prosperity. Let's turn our attention now to the global growing regions. Mike Tenorio is here. He's with tStorm Weather, president and CEO there in Naperville.
• 16:53
  Find them online at tstorm.net. Hello, Mike. Thanks for being with us again.
• 16:57
  Mike Tannura: Hey. Thanks for having me here, Todd.
• 16:59
  Todd Gleason: I am told that there is a developing story in the northern parts of Brazil, particularly some of the soybean growing regions. Can you identify for me where that is exactly and what the concerns might be?
• 17:12
  Mike Tannura: Well, if you look at Goias and Mato Grosso, which accounts for about 40% of Brazil's soybeans, they're the driest since 2014 when you start on October 1 and it's basically the second driest open to a growing season going back twenty five years. Over the next seven days, there's really not much rain in the forecast. Upper level high pressure is going to dominate, and this is at a time of the year when they should be receiving around one and a half, maybe even two inches of rain over the next ten days. So, you know, this story is going to get a little bit worse over the next week. There is a cool front that's going to arrive around Wednesday and Thursday, so just about one week from now.
• 17:51
  We And think that's going to linger for around five to ten days. As long as that happens, they should receive around one and a half to three inches of rain one to two weeks from now. And that would also include areas further to the north where about 15% of soybeans are produced. So basically, around half of your Soybean Belt is all experiencing the same kind of weather to date and the same kind of weather coming up one to two weeks out. So Todd, if all of that happens like we think with this front coming in, making for some decent rains one to two weeks out, that will take away some of this dryness story.
• 18:26
  The only thing is, and we kind of alluded to this earlier, you should normally get about three inches of rain over the next two weeks in these areas. So if we only get one and a half to three inches, you're still falling behind. That means that we're going to need to see rain two to four weeks out, and this is going to become a more notable story. We haven't really seen anything quite like this in basically at least eleven years and arguably longer than that when you start considering some of the things that have been taking place a little bit before this. So this is unusual, but you can still get out of this situation.
• 18:57
  But right now, there should be a little bit of concern about this.
• 19:00
  Todd Gleason: Okay. Other parts of South America, particularly Argentina, maybe Southern Brazil that you have been watching, and how are they faring?
• 19:07
  Mike Tannura: Well, they've had a pretty nice growing season to date. They've had a nice mix of rainfall and dry periods, and that's been allowing planting to move forward. They'll receive some more thunderstorms in both of those areas over the next five days, and that will again keep that soil moisture in place. What happens, though, early next week is a little bit different than what we've seen lately. We'll have a pretty large surface level high develop across this area, and that'll turn everybody pretty dry there for about five to ten days.
• 19:32
  That is a little bit atypical for this time of the year, but it's very common of what you would see in a La Nina summer. And we do have a weak La Nina that's in place. But whether or not this is a sign of what's to come up in December, January, and February when it really matters remains to be seen. It's hard to say if this is just a false signal or a true signal that this La Nina is going to mean business or not. Right now we're just going to watch it and for the time being it's really not a concern because the dry weather is basically going to allow planting to continue.
• 20:05
  Todd Gleason: What are the things that would be in place that would indicate to you that a La Nina is strengthening. So what do you have to watch for? What are the facts on the ground?
• 20:15
  Mike Tannura: Well, we already know a weak La Nina is in place. You can look at ocean temperatures across the Equatorial Pacific Ocean and they're a little bit cool and that means that we have a La Nina in place. It's a weak one though and typically the peak magnitude of La Nina or El Nino for that matter pretty much happened sometime in November, December, or maybe early January. But basically, we're kind of in that window right now. So we don't expect this weak La Nina to suddenly become real strong.
• 20:44
  It's just a little bit too late for that. We're kind of near that peak magnitude, and so it'll just stay weak. You can look back in history, and there's been a lot of weak La Ninas over the last fifty to sixty years. We've pretty much identified fifteen years that kind of line up similarly. That tells you right off the bat, this is not an uncommon setup.
• 21:04
  This is an ocean pattern that we do see basically once every three to four years, and this is just going to be one of them. Some of the worst crops on record have certainly happened with this type of setup in Argentina in particular, but also a lot of really nice crops happen too. But pretty much if you're going to have a bad crop, these weak La Ninas are the ones that tend to produce them, but it doesn't happen every time. And so because of that, we're just in a waiting game and you need to be aware of this, but it's not time to start dialing in a major drought just because next week is gonna be dry and we have a week La Nina.
• 21:42
  Todd Gleason: Thank you much, and good luck on your lecture here on campus today. Thanks for driving in for an Ag Econ lecture with Scott Irwin. I take it you'll be talking about weather to his classes?
• 21:54
  Mike Tannura: Yeah. Weather and how, what I do applies to agricultural economics. The funny thing about this is that I'm speaking to the same class that I was in exactly twenty years ago right now. So and I've been doing this for for a long time, but it's kind of fun being back.
• 22:08
  Todd Gleason: Oh, excellent. Well, we look forward to seeing you later too. Thanks much. That's Mike Tanura. He is with t storm weather.
• 22:14
  That's tstorm.net online. You've been listening to the closing market report on this Thursday afternoon. Do visit our website. The address there is wilag.org, willag.0rg. Can sign up for the farm assets conference there today.
• 22:29
  Should be a fantastic day in Bloomington, Illinois with the PharmDoc team and so many more. And just as a preview, we will be talking about biomass based fuels, particularly those produced from soybeans. It sure looks like there might be a way up in that marketplace. We'll hear more from Scott Irwin during the farm assets conference, but you'll need to be there to get yourself registered. You can do that at willag.org.
• 22:57
  The cost is just $80. That includes the noon hour meal and so much more. Find it at willag0rg. I'm University of Illinois Extension's, Todd Gleason.