Latest / Toadstool Sports / NCAAB + NBA + NHL + NFL Best Bets Monday 11/17/25
Transcript
- 0:01Speaker 1: Yep. Inside I want to kill myself. We are on
- 0:06Speaker 1: OWN seven run over the last two days after tonight
- 0:08Speaker 1: it was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna
- 0:12Speaker 1: start off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I
- 0:15Speaker 1: don't even know what to tell you about that. I
- 0:18Speaker 1: just don't want to do this anymore. I have never
- 0:20Speaker 1: seen anything like this. Man, the slump continuing. Two straight losses,
- 0:26Speaker 1: not a good day at all. Own four that have
- 0:30Speaker 1: not had a good season. Man with wookends the slump
- 0:35Speaker 1: that I'm on, and the slump continues. I've reached into pink. Actually,
- 0:40Speaker 1: I'm going to burn my browins hat Man, I don't
- 0:43Speaker 1: know what is going on with the bruins arch hape?
- 0:46Speaker 1: Is that what it is? I don't even know it's
- 0:48Speaker 1: It's March ninth, I think who even knows? Man, I
- 0:52Speaker 1: don't know what day it is anymore. But I don't
- 0:54Speaker 1: even know what day it is anymore. Man, back with
- 0:56Speaker 1: you after the worst day that I could possibly have,
- 1:00Speaker 1: act with you as I always am until I die
- 1:03Speaker 1: at least oh and two. Yesterday and yesterday it did
- 1:07Speaker 1: not go well for me. Own five. The worst month
- 1:11Speaker 1: that I've ever had in my eighteen years doing this.
- 1:13Speaker 1: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
- 1:16Speaker 1: To the slump, the slump discontinues, the slump continues. Somebody
- 1:21Speaker 1: fucking kill me, please. I don't even know what I
- 1:25Speaker 1: should do at this point, other than potentially end it all.
- 1:33Speaker 1: What's up, everybody, It's towed back with you Toadstools Sports,
- 1:38Speaker 1: the greatest, most autistic, most suicidal sports eventing show on
- 1:43Speaker 1: the planet. It's Monday, November seventeenth. I don't have much
- 1:48Speaker 1: of a voice. We had a winning weekend, Jeffrey, what's
- 1:51Speaker 1: up man? Thanks for hanging out. I know I'm going
- 1:53Speaker 1: a little bit early. It's gonna be a bit of
- 1:55Speaker 1: a smaller board today, al though there's still a decent
- 1:57Speaker 1: amount of college basketball because they're basically always is. And
- 2:01Speaker 1: I got to figure out when I'm gonna start switching
- 2:03Speaker 1: to doing some night college basketball shows when they were
- 2:06Speaker 1: really huge college basketball boards. We'll figure that out, I guess.
- 2:13Speaker 1: Subscribe to the channel. You hit the notifications for it yesterday.
- 2:17Speaker 1: I want to say yesterday it was seven and four
- 2:20Speaker 1: or six four and one, depending on what number you
- 2:23Speaker 1: got in the New York Giants. So we started off
- 2:27Speaker 1: I never saw three on Washington, unfortunately, because there were
- 2:31Speaker 1: some professional betters out there that did get a three
- 2:34Speaker 1: on that that I saw. I never saw it in
- 2:36Speaker 1: any of the books. I thought it was still good
- 2:39Speaker 1: at two and a half. That was an extremely frustrating
- 2:41Speaker 1: way to start the day with Washington. They took the
- 2:44Speaker 1: thirteen to six lead in the third quarter and then
- 2:46Speaker 1: they never scored again. And if you watched that game,
- 2:48Speaker 1: I had it on for some of the end of it.
- 2:51Speaker 1: It was unbelievable that Washington didn't win that game. Washington,
- 2:55Speaker 1: they outgained Miami in the game by probably close to
- 2:57Speaker 1: one hundred yards, and it was thirteen to thirteam was
- 3:00Speaker 1: six minutes left and Washington was literally at the goal line.
- 3:04Speaker 1: They went for an a fourth down, which I mean,
- 3:09Speaker 1: I understand the reasoning behind it, although I would at
- 3:12Speaker 1: that point I would probably kick the field goal because
- 3:15Speaker 1: the game's been so messy and low scoring that maybe
- 3:18Speaker 1: your defense is gonna be able to hold, which, by
- 3:20Speaker 1: the way, it wound up holding on the ensuing drive.
- 3:23Speaker 1: But Washington went for it. It was a pass play. It
- 3:27Speaker 1: was supposed to be a slant to Ertz. He was
- 3:30Speaker 1: gonna get it, but he tripped and that was it.
- 3:33Speaker 1: So he wasn't where he was supposed to be because
- 3:35Speaker 1: he slipped on the turf or the grass. I don't
- 3:38Speaker 1: know if the grass was messed up or what it was.
- 3:40Speaker 1: But yeah, then it was drive over. Then Miami didn't
- 3:45Speaker 1: really do anything, and Washington actually sacked too back to
- 3:49Speaker 1: I don't know, somewhere within his own like they were
- 3:52Speaker 1: inside there on twenty yard line, and it was a
- 3:54Speaker 1: fourth and seventeen. And then I didn't see what happened,
- 3:57Speaker 1: but Miami continued the drive somehow. It might have been
- 4:00Speaker 1: a penalty or they got some fluke fourth down conversion.
- 4:05Speaker 1: Then I think Miami wound up missing a field goal.
- 4:07Speaker 1: So then it was Washington's Washington's ball, and again Washington
- 4:12Speaker 1: should just kick the field goal when they were down
- 4:14Speaker 1: at the goal line, man, even though yeah, I understand
- 4:17Speaker 1: the move to go for it, but Washington gets back
- 4:20Speaker 1: down to the goal, whether they don't get back to
- 4:22Speaker 1: they get down back down into Miami territory. They kick
- 4:26Speaker 1: a field goal in the last play of the or
- 4:29Speaker 1: the attempt one on the last play of oh of regulation,
- 4:33Speaker 1: fifty four yards. It's makeable, but it's certainly not a definite.
- 4:38Speaker 1: It's not a definite make and Gay missed it, which
- 4:42Speaker 1: is very gay. Then it went into overtime. Washington got
- 4:46Speaker 1: the ball first. You're thinking, okay, that's probably good even
- 4:49Speaker 1: though this has been a low scoring game. Let's get
- 4:51Speaker 1: the ball and let's drive and score a touchdown. Here guys,
- 4:54Speaker 1: what do they do? Oh yeah, literally, the first play
- 4:57Speaker 1: Mario to throws an interception. Game over, pretty and then
- 5:00Speaker 1: all Miami has to do is kick a field goal. Great,
- 5:03Speaker 1: just great, great way to lose that game, guys. And
- 5:08Speaker 1: Washington's defense was a lot better than it had been,
- 5:10Speaker 1: which Dan Quinn took over the defensive play calling after
- 5:16Speaker 1: their defense had been sucking, so that seemed to have
- 5:19Speaker 1: actually been an improvement. I still think that was the
- 5:21Speaker 1: right call in Washington. That was some bullshit. You got
- 5:25Speaker 1: the hook with the Giants. Hell yeah, it was out
- 5:27Speaker 1: there for sure. And then we did win on the
- 5:29Speaker 1: Tennessee Titans. Titans, they had chances to win that game. Man,
- 5:34Speaker 1: it was kind of frustrated that they didn't hit on
- 5:36Speaker 1: the money line because it would have made that call
- 5:38Speaker 1: look really awesome. But they did cover. I think it
- 5:41Speaker 1: was a wire to wire cover. If I'm not mistaken
- 5:43Speaker 1: for the Titans. At one point, maybe they were down seven,
- 5:46Speaker 1: I don't know, I don't remember, but they were able
- 5:48Speaker 1: to come within that number. I think they lost by
- 5:49Speaker 1: three or four, so that hit the key number didn't
- 5:53Speaker 1: matter in that one. And then yeah, the Giants. The
- 5:56Speaker 1: seven and a half was out there, so I did
- 5:58Speaker 1: score to the seven and a half since I did
- 6:00Speaker 1: say I think if you wait, like you'll see a
- 6:02Speaker 1: seven and a half probably show up somewhere, and I
- 6:04Speaker 1: don't think you're risking not getting a seven. The seven
- 6:07Speaker 1: and a half were out there yesterday, so that was
- 6:11Speaker 1: I scored at seven and a half. If you want
- 6:13Speaker 1: me to score it as a push, I will, but whatever.
- 6:18Speaker 1: And then we had college basketball was a total roller coaster.
- 6:24Speaker 1: Jacksonville was obvious. I liked it. I did not make
- 6:26Speaker 1: it a play, which in high I mean in hindsight,
- 6:29Speaker 1: everything is obvious. I mean I gave up my analysis
- 6:32Speaker 1: on it. I thought it was pretty strong. That was
- 6:34Speaker 1: my next strongest play that was not That was the
- 6:37Speaker 1: one that I That was the first one I left
- 6:40Speaker 1: off my card. I put it in my pick five.
- 6:42Speaker 1: So I'm three and one in the pick five right now.
- 6:45Speaker 1: Because we had two and a half on the Washington
- 6:47Speaker 1: game and the other two both hit including we had
- 6:50Speaker 1: seven and a half in that game on the Giants.
- 6:52Speaker 1: So I'm three and one. I'm in the money right now.
- 6:55Speaker 1: But I also have Dallas minus three and a half
- 6:59Speaker 1: in that game tonight, so we're gonna need Dallas to
- 7:01Speaker 1: cover for that, which is gonna be one of my plays.
- 7:05Speaker 1: I don't think we're gonna get three on that, but
- 7:07Speaker 1: I will talk about it. Jacksonville, they seem to have
- 7:11Speaker 1: justin Herbert's number, though they know how to stop him.
- 7:14Speaker 1: In college basketball, UNBC first game up, they were off
- 7:17Speaker 1: to a nice start. It looked like they were gonna
- 7:20Speaker 1: win and cover easy. They had a big lead early
- 7:22Speaker 1: and then they were not able to extend the lead
- 7:25Speaker 1: at all. And who was their report, I don't I
- 7:28Speaker 1: don't even remember who they were put Wagner. Wagner just
- 7:30Speaker 1: somehow stuck around in that game. And you think, with
- 7:33Speaker 1: UNBC being a fast faced team, they're gonna be able
- 7:35Speaker 1: to up the tempo there in that game against an
- 7:38Speaker 1: inferior opponent, push the lead further. That didn't happen, and
- 7:41Speaker 1: they wound up winning and not covering, which was pretty frustrating.
- 7:44Speaker 1: That line was also at six and a half before
- 7:46Speaker 1: the game went off, but they didn't cover that either.
- 7:50Speaker 1: I think they won by five, very frustrating. Central Arkansas
- 7:54Speaker 1: was a win assuming you got the eight and a half,
- 7:56Speaker 1: because I think the line on that one did drop
- 7:59Speaker 1: down to seven, and I think they might have lost
- 8:01Speaker 1: by exactly the key number of seven, and even that
- 8:05Speaker 1: was bullshit, But I'm gonna call that a winner on
- 8:08Speaker 1: the show because it was eight and a half out there.
- 8:10Speaker 1: I think probably most people who played it must have
- 8:13Speaker 1: gotten above a seven on that. It was the right
- 8:15Speaker 1: call in Central Arkansas. They almost won the game outright.
- 8:18Speaker 1: They were in that game the entire way, and the
- 8:20Speaker 1: game went into overtime and I think they just were
- 8:23Speaker 1: tiring out and overtime and then they lost by I
- 8:25Speaker 1: believe they lost by seven in overtime, which does suck
- 8:29Speaker 1: because if you have an underdog that is there in
- 8:32Speaker 1: the game wire to wire and taken into overtime, that
- 8:35Speaker 1: was the right call. Man UMass Lowell I think probably
- 8:38Speaker 1: should have covered that line was up to thirty one
- 8:41Speaker 1: as well, but I don't think they covered even that number.
- 8:44Speaker 1: They didn't cover the twenty eight and a half, but
- 8:46Speaker 1: I don't think they covered the larger numbers either, even
- 8:48Speaker 1: though the game was not particularly high scoring. You mass Low,
- 8:51Speaker 1: I think was only losing that game by I don't know,
- 8:55Speaker 1: somewhere in the teens at halftime, and I'm thinking, all right,
- 8:57Speaker 1: that's not too bad. They could stay within this number.
- 9:00Speaker 1: And then just there was one huge run in the
- 9:03Speaker 1: game against them. I forget who their opponent was, whoever
- 9:05Speaker 1: it was made one really big run of the second half.
- 9:08Speaker 1: So then all of a sudden it was like, oh,
- 9:10Speaker 1: you mass lowel was losing by fifteen, this is gonna cash.
- 9:13Speaker 1: And then all of a sudden they're down by like
- 9:14Speaker 1: thirty four. I'm like, what is happening here? And then
- 9:17Speaker 1: I think that is exactly the number that they lost by.
- 9:20Speaker 1: They got back to within the number late in the game,
- 9:22Speaker 1: and then they still lost by thirty four. That was frustrating.
- 9:26Speaker 1: I think they could have covered that game. I'm not
- 9:28Speaker 1: gonna say they should have necessarily, but they definitely were
- 9:31Speaker 1: in position to do so. You mass was very frustrating.
- 9:35Speaker 1: You masked the minus ten and a half. They were
- 9:37Speaker 1: up to eleven and a half maybe twelve when the
- 9:40Speaker 1: game went off, So the line moved in my direction.
- 9:42Speaker 1: I think most of the market reads agreed with my plays,
- 9:45Speaker 1: which college of basketball. I can't really read the market
- 9:48Speaker 1: early in the day. I just go on situation and
- 9:51Speaker 1: then I look later and hope that the market wound
- 9:53Speaker 1: up agreeing with me, and they actually do in most cases.
- 9:56Speaker 1: You Mass, they were blowing the doors off of Connecticut
- 10:00Speaker 1: early in that game. I was thinking, this is gonna
- 10:02Speaker 1: be easy. U Mass was up like twenty five late
- 10:05Speaker 1: in the first half, and then I don't know what happened,
- 10:08Speaker 1: and they just they fell silent, and I don't exactly
- 10:12Speaker 1: know what happened in Central Connecticut got back within that number,
- 10:15Speaker 1: and I think U Mass only won by like five
- 10:17Speaker 1: or seven, and it looked like they were gonna completely
- 10:20Speaker 1: run away with that game and a blowout. That was
- 10:23Speaker 1: frustrating because they looked well on their way to covering
- 10:25Speaker 1: that one. And then we had a really nice late
- 10:28Speaker 1: slate though it was a roller coaster. Man, after all
- 10:31Speaker 1: that happened, I think we wound up up in college
- 10:33Speaker 1: basketball because the last three all hit. So I think
- 10:36Speaker 1: we went four and three in college basketball if I'm
- 10:39Speaker 1: not mistaken, because we lost you both U Masses lost,
- 10:42Speaker 1: which by the way, in Massachusetts, you can't bet those
- 10:46Speaker 1: at the actual site, so that restriction actually helped betters
- 10:50Speaker 1: win more money yesterday. Good for you books. But yeah,
- 10:56Speaker 1: so we had Central Arkansas, we lost UNBC. Yeah, we
- 10:59Speaker 1: were one in three college basketball to start of the
- 11:02Speaker 1: day and then we finished on a three to zero
- 11:04Speaker 1: run to make it four and through UNLV. Was no sweat.
- 11:07Speaker 1: That was wire to wire, outright win for UNLV. I
- 11:10Speaker 1: don't even know if they trailed in the game. That
- 11:12Speaker 1: was a nice one. The line was down to nine
- 11:15Speaker 1: and a half and that one didn't really matter nine
- 11:17Speaker 1: and a half, ten whatever, it's not key in basketball.
- 11:20Speaker 1: Mount Saint Mary's got us the cover as well. It
- 11:23Speaker 1: was somewhat close. I think they lost by about twenty
- 11:26Speaker 1: or twenty one, but they stuck within that number. Man
- 11:29Speaker 1: came away with the cover. And then Akron also covered
- 11:34Speaker 1: by I think they lost by seventeen. They lost by
- 11:38Speaker 1: something close to the number, but they they wound up
- 11:41Speaker 1: in that within the range there for Akron, which I
- 11:45Speaker 1: believe was against Purdue as well. So Akron, Yeah, I mean,
- 11:50Speaker 1: I think they're a legit team, man, I mean, I
- 11:51Speaker 1: think they might be. They're probably the best team in
- 11:53Speaker 1: the MAC this year, like I said yesterday, as part
- 11:56Speaker 1: of the handicaps. So but either way, that worked out well.
- 12:00Speaker 1: And then we actually finished the night on a five
- 12:03Speaker 1: zero run, which was very nice. We had the Orlando
- 12:06Speaker 1: Magic potentially they almost were able to get the win
- 12:10Speaker 1: in that game. Houston had to like hit a late
- 12:12Speaker 1: shot I think, and I think the game went into
- 12:14Speaker 1: overtime and Houston won, but Orlando covered, I believe, was
- 12:17Speaker 1: what happened in that one. That was a good cover
- 12:19Speaker 1: for the Magic. There. Magic looked like they were gonna
- 12:23Speaker 1: win the game at a bunch of different points, including
- 12:25Speaker 1: very late in regulation of course, and then Utah actually
- 12:29Speaker 1: won outright. That was the game where Utah was winning
- 12:32Speaker 1: out right for a while, then they were losing by
- 12:34Speaker 1: more than the spread, then they got back in it again,
- 12:36Speaker 1: then they were winning the game again, and then that
- 12:38Speaker 1: game actually wound up going into double overtime and Utah
- 12:42Speaker 1: actually got the outright win there. So a nice finish
- 12:46Speaker 1: there to the night Auburn and under. But the game
- 12:51Speaker 1: went over, oh really it went over that. I didn't
- 12:56Speaker 1: disagree with the under in that game. I liked Houston
- 12:58Speaker 1: and Houston did not cover. They won and didn't cover
- 13:01Speaker 1: I believe I had that game on for a little while.
- 13:04Speaker 1: I'm surprised that game went over because that that game
- 13:06Speaker 1: was pretty low scoring. It was like a Houston pace game.
- 13:10Speaker 1: When I was watching it, it was like the game
- 13:12Speaker 1: was like in the fifties. I thought, pretty late in
- 13:14Speaker 1: the game, I'm like, yeah, this is definitely a Houston game.
- 13:17Speaker 1: But Houston doesn't cover spreads a lot, like they don't
- 13:23Speaker 1: cover US thread as a favorite that much because they
- 13:25Speaker 1: slow everything. You don't have to do that with the
- 13:29Speaker 1: mass I mean, when I was still betting, I was.
- 13:35Speaker 1: I mean I was betting eighteen years ago, so you
- 13:37Speaker 1: know what I was doing. So I obviously have means to.
- 13:40Speaker 1: I'll play the Massachusetts schools if I want to. There
- 13:45Speaker 1: are certain sites that are not in the US that
- 13:49Speaker 1: are legit under in the Bulls. I don't know if
- 13:52Speaker 1: I have any thoughts on the total there. I don't.
- 13:54Speaker 1: I don't usually have thoughts on the totals. All right,
- 13:57Speaker 1: let's get into today. That was too much of a
- 14:00Speaker 1: breakdown for yesterday. There's still a lot of college basketball.
- 14:02Speaker 1: I mean, the show goes long because we have so
- 14:05Speaker 1: much basketball. I'm gonna try to limit myself a little
- 14:07Speaker 1: bit in College of Basketball today. I got four plays,
- 14:10Speaker 1: which still seems like a lot on a Monday, but
- 14:13Speaker 1: there aren't a lot of games. First game up is
- 14:15Speaker 1: a little bit early at six thirty PM, which is
- 14:18Speaker 1: not an interesting one except that there might be a
- 14:21Speaker 1: little bit of an angle here with Florida A and
- 14:23Speaker 1: M and Georgia. The angle that I might see here
- 14:25Speaker 1: is that Georgia just won their rivalry game against Georgia Tech,
- 14:29Speaker 1: so that is a big win, and now they get
- 14:31Speaker 1: this bad Florida A and M team, and up next
- 14:34Speaker 1: Georgia does have to face Xavier, which Xavier is down
- 14:38Speaker 1: though this year, and I forget. I figured out who
- 14:41Speaker 1: Xavier's coach is now, and I was like, oh, that's
- 14:44Speaker 1: who the Nuke coaches, and I already forget who it is.
- 14:47Speaker 1: But Xavier is not off to a great start here
- 14:50Speaker 1: under that new coaching regime. You guys can let me know.
- 14:53Speaker 1: I forget who it is. I was like, oh, like,
- 14:54Speaker 1: I absolutely know who the guy is. I'm like, oh,
- 14:57Speaker 1: he's at Xavier now. I'm like then, I think my
- 15:00Speaker 1: I thought was that's not good for them, but I
- 15:03Speaker 1: forget who it is. But that still might be considered
- 15:05Speaker 1: to be a bigger game for Georgia because that is
- 15:07Speaker 1: a big East game, So this does kind of look
- 15:09Speaker 1: like a sandwich. I'd have some hesitation though, because Georgia
- 15:12Speaker 1: was a big favorite against Georgia Tech fifteen and a half,
- 15:15Speaker 1: So you could argue that I could see both arguments.
- 15:18Speaker 1: You're like, yes, this is a rivalry game, so it
- 15:20Speaker 1: was a big win for Georgia, but also they didn't
- 15:26Speaker 1: win by that much against a Georgia Tech team. Although
- 15:30Speaker 1: the game was pretty much in hand late in the game,
- 15:32Speaker 1: I'm not gonna say it was really that much of
- 15:33Speaker 1: a scare. I mean, Georgia Tech was looking like they
- 15:36Speaker 1: might do something kind of towards the middle of the game,
- 15:38Speaker 1: but once it got to the later half of the game,
- 15:40Speaker 1: like the game was pretty much put away, Like it
- 15:43Speaker 1: wasn't as close as the five point final look. But
- 15:46Speaker 1: there could be an argument that that Georgia kind of
- 15:49Speaker 1: considers that to be an escape. So I don't know,
- 15:52Speaker 1: I mean, I don't want to do it, but the
- 15:54Speaker 1: line is a lot. Let me see, Georgia is up
- 15:58Speaker 1: from thirty seven to thirty eight. The number here, I mean,
- 16:01Speaker 1: I would take the points if I was going to
- 16:02Speaker 1: play that game. It is a high total as well
- 16:04Speaker 1: the one hundred and seventy two and a half. Don't
- 16:07Speaker 1: love it fan Duel Money on Jersey. I don't like
- 16:11Speaker 1: looking at the big like online books to try to
- 16:13Speaker 1: figure out where the actual money is because I think
- 16:16Speaker 1: that like that completely skews the perception of what's actually
- 16:19Speaker 1: going on. I don't like looking at fan duel DraftKings,
- 16:23Speaker 1: don't like it at all. I like this site here
- 16:26Speaker 1: because it factors the sharp books more like. I think
- 16:30Speaker 1: it more heavily weighs the Sharp books here, which gives
- 16:33Speaker 1: me a better read on the market. Been doing it
- 16:36Speaker 1: for a long time now, and don best is no
- 16:38Speaker 1: longer a thing. So although I guess there is odds
- 16:42Speaker 1: logic is the one that's being pushed by the wager
- 16:44Speaker 1: talk guys. I haven't tried it out, so I don't
- 16:47Speaker 1: know how good it is. You're gonna take Florida A
- 16:50Speaker 1: and M even though they haven't covered the spread yet.
- 16:53Speaker 1: I lean that way, but I think it's dangerous, which
- 16:56Speaker 1: is I'm in. I'm not gonna give it out as
- 16:58Speaker 1: a play. I will, however, give give out a play
- 17:04Speaker 1: in one of these next games here it's already the
- 17:06Speaker 1: best bets. Man. The whole show once again into college
- 17:08Speaker 1: basketball season is best bets. I'm gonna give out a
- 17:11Speaker 1: play in Oakland plus the points, although I know this
- 17:13Speaker 1: has gone down a little bit already, so we've lost
- 17:16Speaker 1: a little bit of value on this. It was fifteen, No,
- 17:19Speaker 1: it's twelve and a half. You might be able to
- 17:20Speaker 1: get thirteen. The money looks like it is definitely coming
- 17:23Speaker 1: in on Oakland. I don't think the market read is
- 17:26Speaker 1: gonna change on this. One of those who knows this
- 17:29Speaker 1: early in the morning, but my situational read says Oakland
- 17:33Speaker 1: here as well. Total is a little bit high, which
- 17:35Speaker 1: does worry me a little bit. But this I'm gonna
- 17:38Speaker 1: show you what the situation is for UCF, and I
- 17:40Speaker 1: think this is definitely a fade spot for them. Fifty
- 17:43Speaker 1: seven percent of the tickets are on UCF, ninety four
- 17:46Speaker 1: percent of the cash on Oakland. This is Oakland, Michigan,
- 17:50Speaker 1: not Oakland, California, so they do not have to travel
- 17:53Speaker 1: across the country for this, at least Oakland. I think
- 17:58Speaker 1: they played the most difficult schedule in all of college basketball,
- 18:01Speaker 1: so the fact that they're one in three doesn't really
- 18:04Speaker 1: tell you the entire story. I mean, I'm not saying
- 18:06Speaker 1: they're good. Obviously, they're not as good as a Big
- 18:08Speaker 1: twelve team like UCF, although u seef as a lesser
- 18:11Speaker 1: Big twelve team. But look at Oakland's schedule to start
- 18:14Speaker 1: the season. Man, I'm pretty sure, Ken bomb as Oakland
- 18:17Speaker 1: is literally the number one strongest strength of schedule so far.
- 18:22Speaker 1: They played on the road against Michigan, Purdue, and Houston,
- 18:25Speaker 1: and Purdue and Houston were both ranked number one when
- 18:28Speaker 1: they played them, both on the road, and I think
- 18:32Speaker 1: Purdue and Houston are probably actually the top two teams
- 18:35Speaker 1: as well, So this opening to Oakland schedule has been absurd.
- 18:42Speaker 1: They played Purdue pretty well actually, even though they got
- 18:44Speaker 1: blown out in the other two games they took, they
- 18:47Speaker 1: only lost by ten to Purdue, so they put up
- 18:49Speaker 1: a fight in that game. And then after losing those
- 18:52Speaker 1: three games, they were able to get the first win
- 18:54Speaker 1: of the season against Defiance, who was not very defiant.
- 18:57Speaker 1: That's some non Division one team blowout win for Oakland.
- 19:01Speaker 1: But I think what that will do is it helps
- 19:04Speaker 1: your momentum, and it gives you new momentum when you
- 19:06Speaker 1: get your first win of the season. I think that
- 19:08Speaker 1: will just propel them forward. Now they get to take
- 19:11Speaker 1: that win out on the road, and you see F
- 19:12Speaker 1: as a major step down from Michigan purdueing Houston. So
- 19:16Speaker 1: this is actually gonna be the easiest Division One game
- 19:20Speaker 1: that Oakland has faced so far. So they are absolutely
- 19:23Speaker 1: battle tested, which I do like. And they've been on
- 19:26Speaker 1: the road for all those difficult games, so they're not
- 19:28Speaker 1: gonna be intimidated by this. And for UCF, they just
- 19:31Speaker 1: went into Texas A and M an SEC team. Even
- 19:34Speaker 1: though Texas A and M looks down this year. A
- 19:36Speaker 1: and M was a ten and a half point favorite
- 19:38Speaker 1: in this game, and you seef won the game outright
- 19:40Speaker 1: by twelve, so that was a big upset win. If
- 19:43Speaker 1: you look at what happened in this game, UCF shot
- 19:46Speaker 1: really crazy high in the game, especially the fifty percent
- 19:49Speaker 1: from three point range. Texas A and M over the
- 19:51Speaker 1: last couple of years has been known as like slow
- 19:54Speaker 1: physical play defense they don't shoot well, but in this
- 19:57Speaker 1: game their defense was not good and you see had
- 20:00Speaker 1: a pretty big outlier of a three point percentage there,
- 20:03Speaker 1: so I expect that to regress. Texas A and M
- 20:06Speaker 1: shot really poorly in the game. Too. Thirty seven percent
- 20:09Speaker 1: from the field as notable as that's a pretty low percentage.
- 20:13Speaker 1: I mean even for Texas A and M, who's not
- 20:15Speaker 1: a really good shooting team, their percentage is still not
- 20:18Speaker 1: that bad usually because they take a lot of shots
- 20:21Speaker 1: near the basket. Typically this year maybe not quite as
- 20:25Speaker 1: much the case. But Texas A and M. They are
- 20:28Speaker 1: also a physical defense I think still that's just kind
- 20:31Speaker 1: of their mo so they can punish you physically. So
- 20:34Speaker 1: coming off that game, not only was an upset win,
- 20:37Speaker 1: but I think UCF could be kind of beat up
- 20:40Speaker 1: after that game. Now they get Oakland, who they might
- 20:42Speaker 1: not really pay a whole lot of attention to of
- 20:44Speaker 1: this Horizon team coming in here and up next to
- 20:47Speaker 1: UCF does have to play PITT, which is an ACC team.
- 20:50Speaker 1: The pit is three and one to start the season.
- 20:53Speaker 1: And this is some neutral site game I think in
- 20:57Speaker 1: the sky Scanner Legends Classic whatever hell that is. It's
- 21:01Speaker 1: in Daytona Beach, Florida, so it'll be like a semi
- 21:05Speaker 1: home for UCF, if you want to call it that.
- 21:08Speaker 1: That's a bigger game up next though, So this is
- 21:10Speaker 1: a sandwich spot I like it for Oakland. We'll grab
- 21:13Speaker 1: the points with Oakland and that one. Hopefully the number
- 21:16Speaker 1: goes back up a little bit because missed the fifteen.
- 21:19Speaker 1: Although in basketball these numbers aren't key, but every possession
- 21:23Speaker 1: does matter to some extent. All right, Colgate at Sianna.
- 21:29Speaker 1: By the way, I actually just forgot to handicap this.
- 21:31Speaker 1: I think I skipped right over it. I don't I'm
- 21:34Speaker 1: gonna see a situation on this, but I just want
- 21:36Speaker 1: to do it just because I don't like missing games.
- 21:38Speaker 1: Colgate did get that cover for us against Illinois in
- 21:41Speaker 1: their last game. I don't know that they'll be in
- 21:43Speaker 1: a hangover spot after that though, because it wasn't really
- 21:45Speaker 1: that close. Sianna just took their first loss in a
- 21:49Speaker 1: big game for them against Saint Bond Adventures. Sianna's Saint
- 21:52Speaker 1: Bond Adventure. Those are like they're both in upstate New York.
- 21:55Speaker 1: That's a pretty big matchup between those two teams. So
- 22:00Speaker 1: or I think Sianna is an upstate New York somewhere.
- 22:03Speaker 1: There's somewhere in New York above New York City, so
- 22:05Speaker 1: I think that counts. Yeah, I mean to me, it
- 22:08Speaker 1: looks like both teams are in somewhat bad spots. That
- 22:10Speaker 1: was Sianna's first loss of the season, which can kind
- 22:12Speaker 1: of hang you over a little bit, although they've had
- 22:15Speaker 1: some time off to kind of to like recollect themselves
- 22:21Speaker 1: after that. But I don't want to do anything with
- 22:23Speaker 1: that game, as I figured, I wouldn't want to do anything.
- 22:25Speaker 1: I mean, even though I do a four plays, I'm
- 22:27Speaker 1: trying to be a bit selective. That number did drop
- 22:30Speaker 1: a little bit from six and a half to six
- 22:32Speaker 1: on Sianna. Yep, the Fighting Truth based of Colgate. They
- 22:38Speaker 1: should change their name to that, although their name, I mean,
- 22:42Speaker 1: the Raiders is at least not a terrible name, but
- 22:45Speaker 1: all right. Next up, we are going to go with
- 22:47Speaker 1: another play here with Lafayette plus twenty three and a half.
- 22:51Speaker 1: I know they're bad, dude, I know we're looking at
- 22:53Speaker 1: like a bottom thirty or so team in all of
- 22:56Speaker 1: college basketball. They're at West Virginia. But there are some
- 22:59Speaker 1: things that I like about this, Even though this is
- 23:01Speaker 1: a very very ugly Lafayette team, West Virginia is down
- 23:05Speaker 1: from twenty five to twenty three on the line here,
- 23:07Speaker 1: it looks like I think twenty three and a half
- 23:09Speaker 1: is are pretty abundant right now. Hopefully the exact number
- 23:12Speaker 1: doesn't really come into play in this one, but we'll see.
- 23:15Speaker 1: I mean, West Virginia they're a big twelve team, but
- 23:19Speaker 1: there's still adapt into this new coaching regime here with
- 23:22Speaker 1: I forget what his name is, the guy from North
- 23:25Speaker 1: Texas who's coming in, and he's basically slowing West Virginia
- 23:29Speaker 1: down even more so. West Virginia they were already like
- 23:32Speaker 1: a slow paced offense. That's what they're they've been doing
- 23:35Speaker 1: for years. Slow the pace way down, try to play defense, whatever.
- 23:39Speaker 1: But North Texas isn't even more extreme version of that,
- 23:42Speaker 1: or they were under their coach and now he's at
- 23:44Speaker 1: West Virginia, so that is really their m this year. Now.
- 23:48Speaker 1: As far as West Virginia, well that means of course
- 23:50Speaker 1: that points are going to be more at a premium
- 23:52Speaker 1: here because West Virginia plays slow and this total is
- 23:55Speaker 1: crazy low at one hundred and thirty four, so that
- 23:59Speaker 1: one is a really total. The Oakland one is a
- 24:01Speaker 1: lot higher, by the way. I don't know if I
- 24:02Speaker 1: mentioned that at one sixty one, which worries me slightly,
- 24:06Speaker 1: but I'm still doing that one, this low total with
- 24:09Speaker 1: a very high spread, though the points are worth more
- 24:12Speaker 1: in a game like this man, West Virginia, they'll likely
- 24:14Speaker 1: be able to control the pace. They're gonna want to
- 24:16Speaker 1: play slow here. I don't think Lafayette wants to play
- 24:19Speaker 1: fast either, So yeah, they're at two twenty six in tempo,
- 24:23Speaker 1: so there's not really gonna be a huge tempo clash year.
- 24:26Speaker 1: So Lafayette won't be like totally uncomfortable at this pace,
- 24:32Speaker 1: which is good I think for this cover as well.
- 24:34Speaker 1: West Virginia is off to a four to oh start,
- 24:36Speaker 1: but their biggest win was the most recent game where
- 24:38Speaker 1: they smacked Pit and it looked like Pitt, their best player, Cummings,
- 24:43Speaker 1: it looked like he was potentially not gonna play in
- 24:45Speaker 1: that game. He did play, and he looked off. Man,
- 24:48Speaker 1: he had a really bad game. And I don't know
- 24:49Speaker 1: if that was because he was not at one hundred
- 24:51Speaker 1: percent or because West Virginia is that good defensively, I
- 24:55Speaker 1: don't know. But that was a huge win. I mean,
- 24:57Speaker 1: that is a rivalry between West Virginia and Pitt, even
- 25:00Speaker 1: though people talk more about the football rivalry, but the
- 25:03Speaker 1: schools do not like each other. And that was the
- 25:05Speaker 1: first big conference game for West Virginia and they destroyed Pitt.
- 25:09Speaker 1: They embarrassed them seventy one to forty nine. So now
- 25:12Speaker 1: West Virginia is coming off that that is a very
- 25:14Speaker 1: satisfying win. Now they're coming back home off of that
- 25:17Speaker 1: where I think that game was in Salver Springs, West Virginia.
- 25:21Speaker 1: I think so that it wasn't actually in Morgantown. I believe.
- 25:25Speaker 1: Now they're coming back to campus and you know, they're
- 25:28Speaker 1: probably gonna be riding pretty high. Everybody's gonna be congratulating
- 25:31Speaker 1: them and whatever. I think they're gonna look past this
- 25:34Speaker 1: Lafayette team, man. And up next they do have to
- 25:36Speaker 1: face Clemson in some neutral site affair here the Shriners
- 25:41Speaker 1: Children's Charleston Classic in the Palmeadow bracket, which is going
- 25:45Speaker 1: to be in Charleston, South Carolina, which is gonna be
- 25:49Speaker 1: a semi home game for Clemson because they're they're in
- 25:52Speaker 1: South Carolina. But that's a bigger game, man, that's an
- 25:56Speaker 1: ACC game, an ACC opponent. I should that Clemson has
- 26:00Speaker 1: been good the last couple of years, have been in
- 26:02Speaker 1: the tournament last couple of years, even though I don't
- 26:04Speaker 1: think there is good this year. But I think this
- 26:07Speaker 1: is a sandwich spot for West Virginia. The slow pace
- 26:10Speaker 1: is not really conducive to covering as a huge favorite,
- 26:14Speaker 1: and Lafayette they're gonna be looking for a win. I mean,
- 26:18Speaker 1: that's it is what it is like. I don't think
- 26:20Speaker 1: they're gonna be intimidated because they have played on the
- 26:22Speaker 1: road against Texas this year and against Saint Joe's. I
- 26:25Speaker 1: mean those are not easy games. Going to West Virginia's
- 26:28Speaker 1: closer to Lafayette's campus than Texas is, so this trip
- 26:32Speaker 1: isn't as bad for them because Lafayette is in Pennsylvania,
- 26:35Speaker 1: I believe, so not a long trip for them. They're
- 26:38Speaker 1: gonna get up for the game because it's a big
- 26:40Speaker 1: twelve opponent. So yeah, I like it. I think Lafayette
- 26:44Speaker 1: will give you an effort in this one. They're coming
- 26:46Speaker 1: off a pretty ugly loss at home to Cornell, so
- 26:49Speaker 1: I like it. I don't like the spot for West Virginia, obviously,
- 26:52Speaker 1: that's a play right there. Fan Duel one hundred and
- 26:55Speaker 1: thirty three and a half. Yeah, it's a low total regardless.
- 27:00Speaker 1: The getting your car inspected, well, I hope there's nothing
- 27:05Speaker 1: wrong with it. The inspections, dude, I hate that. The
- 27:09Speaker 1: law you have to have the sticker come on, man,
- 27:12Speaker 1: they don't do anything inspectually, takes like twenty minutes. It's like, Oh,
- 27:15Speaker 1: it's done, okay, Uh dirty sock. What's up man? Thanks
- 27:18Speaker 1: for hanging out. Sorry I went a little bit early here,
- 27:22Speaker 1: all right. A VCU at NC State is one of
- 27:25Speaker 1: the bigger games of the day. There aren't too many
- 27:27Speaker 1: big games today between big opponents VCU. I mean, their
- 27:32Speaker 1: biggest test was against Utah State so far, and they
- 27:35Speaker 1: did lose that game. Now, this is gonna be a
- 27:37Speaker 1: true road game, first true road game in the season,
- 27:40Speaker 1: having to go to NC State. I don't think it's
- 27:42Speaker 1: gonna be that easy for them. NC State looking pretty
- 27:46Speaker 1: good so far that they haven't really been tested yet.
- 27:48Speaker 1: They're three and oh but against some pretty weak opponents.
- 27:51Speaker 1: But they did smack down in State little brother UNC
- 27:55Speaker 1: Greensborrow in the last game, although they look like they're
- 27:57Speaker 1: down this year, but satisfying win. We're in State looks
- 28:00Speaker 1: really good in that game, scoring one hunder ten points
- 28:03Speaker 1: for the second time this year. But they're staying at home.
- 28:08Speaker 1: I mean, I think this does set up better for
- 28:10Speaker 1: Ramsey State. Don't have a strong opinion on this one,
- 28:12Speaker 1: but I probably lean to laying it. They're up from
- 28:15Speaker 1: eleven to twelve and a half. Although at that number
- 28:17Speaker 1: of the money looks like it's coming back on VCU
- 28:20Speaker 1: eighty eight percent of the tickets, only seventy nine percent
- 28:22Speaker 1: of the cash on NC State. I mean, I don't
- 28:24Speaker 1: really have a strong opinion on it, so just talking
- 28:28Speaker 1: about it because it was a bigger, one of the
- 28:31Speaker 1: bigger matchups there. Oh, thank you, sir. I appreciate it.
- 28:35Speaker 1: I appreciate the regulars. Appreciate that you like the show man. Oh,
- 28:39Speaker 1: he couldn't inspect it today. I've had that happen to
- 28:43Speaker 1: Like sometimes you try to get well, it's a Monday,
- 28:45Speaker 1: so you'd figure you'd be able to get a place
- 28:47Speaker 1: to do it, But like sometimes I've tried to do
- 28:49Speaker 1: it on like a Saturday, and it's like very difficult
- 28:51Speaker 1: to find a place that'll do it. Saint Joe's and
- 28:54Speaker 1: Penn is a Pennsylvania matchup here where Penn is going
- 28:58Speaker 1: to consider themselves to be the little brother of these two,
- 29:01Speaker 1: I would imagine because it's Ivy versus Atlantic ten. Saint
- 29:05Speaker 1: Joe's just took their first loss of the season, So
- 29:08Speaker 1: sometimes we talk about how that will hang you over
- 29:10Speaker 1: a little bit, but it was an embarrassingly ugly ninety
- 29:13Speaker 1: four to fifty nine loss to Virginia Tech. So you
- 29:16Speaker 1: could argue they're gonna be in a bounce back mode
- 29:19Speaker 1: here after that because that loss was just so ugly. Penn.
- 29:24Speaker 1: They're also coming off a blowout loss to Providence. Although
- 29:28Speaker 1: Providence big East team, I mean, that was somewhat expected
- 29:31Speaker 1: the Penn would not be able to hang in that game.
- 29:35Speaker 1: Both teams I expect to get up for this game,
- 29:37Speaker 1: So in that case, I usually tend to look towards
- 29:40Speaker 1: the little brother of the two. Penn is getting five
- 29:44Speaker 1: points here, line looks like it's going a little bit
- 29:47Speaker 1: higher five and a half. Actually, line looks like it's
- 29:49Speaker 1: going a little bit higher as well. This is I
- 29:52Speaker 1: believe at Penn's stadium as well. This is actually a
- 29:55Speaker 1: Philadelphia battle as well, But I'm pretty sure this is
- 29:57Speaker 1: at Penn's campus. Jeffrey could correct me if I'm wrong,
- 30:00Speaker 1: because he's the Philadelphia guy. But I believe the Poleestra
- 30:03Speaker 1: is Penn's home arena, so I believe it's a home
- 30:09Speaker 1: game for them, although it's in Pennsylvania, I mean it's
- 30:13Speaker 1: in Philadelphia. I believe both schools are Philadelphia, all right,
- 30:17Speaker 1: buck Nell at Pitt. This is a game where I mean,
- 30:21Speaker 1: just on the surface, I would kind of start leaning
- 30:23Speaker 1: towards buck Nell because they're the little brother in the
- 30:26Speaker 1: state of Pennsylvania. They're gonna get up for a game
- 30:28Speaker 1: against Pitt. Yep the Poleestra pretty sure, yet not Podesta.
- 30:35Speaker 1: I don't know. Is there an underground a child trafficking
- 30:39Speaker 1: ring underneath the arena? There the John Pulestra, But yes,
- 30:45Speaker 1: I believe that's still where penn plays. But now you
- 30:48Speaker 1: know they're gonna get up for a game against Pitt
- 30:49Speaker 1: because Pitt is one of the bigger schools in their area.
- 30:54Speaker 1: Pitt is coming off that game against West Virginia where yes,
- 30:56Speaker 1: it was an embarrassing loss, but it was also a
- 30:58Speaker 1: gamer Pitt, I think, got up for that game and
- 31:01Speaker 1: it was their first loss. So I could see this
- 31:03Speaker 1: being a bit of a hangover for Pitt, even though
- 31:06Speaker 1: they might want to redeem themselves from how ugly that
- 31:08Speaker 1: loss was. So this is why I don't really want
- 31:11Speaker 1: to get involved in this one, because I could see
- 31:12Speaker 1: that going either way for Pitt. They do have UCF
- 31:15Speaker 1: up next level. I think UCF looking ahead to Pitt
- 31:17Speaker 1: is a bigger look ahead than Pitt looking to UCF,
- 31:20Speaker 1: because you see if they're a newcomer to the Big twelve.
- 31:23Speaker 1: So I still think they are not quite considered to
- 31:26Speaker 1: be one of the bigger boys, if you know what
- 31:29Speaker 1: I mean. But buck Nell, I mean, I think they're
- 31:31Speaker 1: gonna get up for this game. This game being on
- 31:34Speaker 1: the horizon was part of the reason why we faded
- 31:36Speaker 1: buck Nell against Hofstra on Friday and we got the
- 31:39Speaker 1: win in that one, because I thought they'd be potentially
- 31:41Speaker 1: looking ahead to Pitt. This is gonna be a big
- 31:44Speaker 1: game for buck Nell. So I do expect buck Nell
- 31:47Speaker 1: to show up here in this game. It's just buck
- 31:49Speaker 1: Nell is a pretty lousy team, man, So we'll see.
- 31:53Speaker 1: The line actually doesn't look that high, which almost makes
- 31:56Speaker 1: it look like it looks too easy to lay the
- 31:58Speaker 1: points with Pitt at sixteen and a half. With buck
- 32:01Speaker 1: Nell being pretty bad this year in Kembom's rankings, like
- 32:04Speaker 1: somewhere in the mid two hundreds, sixteen and a half
- 32:07Speaker 1: doesn't look particularly doesn't look like particularly a large spread here.
- 32:12Speaker 1: Total also is low down to one forty two and
- 32:15Speaker 1: a half. I would take the points with Bucknell in
- 32:17Speaker 1: that one not gonna make my card though. Lamar at
- 32:23Speaker 1: Uel Monroe. This caught my eye because they don't think
- 32:26Speaker 1: Lamar is in a very good spot. Lamar just played
- 32:28Speaker 1: pretty tough at in state big brother TCU because Lamar
- 32:32Speaker 1: is also a Texas school. TCU is an eight and
- 32:36Speaker 1: a half eighteen and a half point favorite in this game,
- 32:38Speaker 1: and Lamar came within thirteen of them. But if you
- 32:42Speaker 1: look at this game, even though TCU actually shot really
- 32:45Speaker 1: well in the game, TCU had a lot of turnovers
- 32:48Speaker 1: in the game, so that might have had something to
- 32:49Speaker 1: do with the fact that they didn't win by a
- 32:51Speaker 1: huge margin. But Lamar was winning this game outright like
- 32:55Speaker 1: midway through the second half, man, So they played really
- 32:58Speaker 1: tough in this game, and they were still within six
- 33:01Speaker 1: with less than five minutes left. They were within two possessions.
- 33:04Speaker 1: So Lamar put up a big fight in this game,
- 33:07Speaker 1: big effort, big game for them to face one of
- 33:09Speaker 1: the big schools in Texas. Now they're coming off that
- 33:12Speaker 1: and they got to go to Yuel Monroe. I just
- 33:15Speaker 1: don't see how Lamar gets totally excited gets back up
- 33:17Speaker 1: off the mat after that. Joel Monroe pretty bad team,
- 33:21Speaker 1: but they did have one difficult opponent, and they're at
- 33:24Speaker 1: oh Miss, which that's one of their losses. And they've
- 33:27Speaker 1: played three road games so far, and this is gonna
- 33:30Speaker 1: be their first Division one home game, So I do
- 33:32Speaker 1: expect Juol Monroe to show up for this one. They
- 33:34Speaker 1: lost at Houston Christian in their last game, which Houston Christian.
- 33:39Speaker 1: They're not that good, but they were I think like
- 33:40Speaker 1: an eight eight and a half point favorite against Joal Monroe.
- 33:43Speaker 1: Yol Monroe really bad. But I think this is a
- 33:47Speaker 1: spot where it's just not a good spot for Lamar.
- 33:50Speaker 1: I don't think. I do not think there's any real
- 33:52Speaker 1: look ahead component here though, though I mean Montana. I
- 33:55Speaker 1: mean they are a bigger name than Joel Monroe though,
- 33:58Speaker 1: so there is that like Montana, they're one of the
- 34:00Speaker 1: better teams in the Big Sky, and they did make
- 34:02Speaker 1: the tournament last year, so maybe debatably, there is some
- 34:05Speaker 1: component there. If you want Yola Monroe. The line has
- 34:08Speaker 1: gone up from eight and a half to ten and
- 34:10Speaker 1: a half. I would take the points with you Ol
- 34:12Speaker 1: Monroe and that one if I was going to play.
- 34:13Speaker 1: It hasn't made my card though. A stone Hill. My
- 34:19Speaker 1: local guys have to go to Iowa State. Looks like
- 34:24Speaker 1: it's not going to be that easy of a travel
- 34:27Speaker 1: spot for stone Hill. Man, this is going to be
- 34:29Speaker 1: the first time they're leaving or no, it's not the
- 34:32Speaker 1: first time to leave in the Eastern Times, so because
- 34:34Speaker 1: they did have to go to De Paul, so maybe
- 34:36Speaker 1: that makes it a little bit easier for them to
- 34:37Speaker 1: have to go out to Iowa. But still they're having
- 34:40Speaker 1: to go out to an unfamiliar place man and face
- 34:42Speaker 1: a really strong Iowa State team, and they're coming off
- 34:46Speaker 1: that tournament that they were just in in Fairfield, Connecticut.
- 34:49Speaker 1: Although stone Hill got pretty embarrassed in the tournament, losing
- 34:52Speaker 1: both games, so you could argue, well, they get to
- 34:56Speaker 1: just forget about that and just go on the road,
- 34:58Speaker 1: So maybe it's not all bad for Stonehill. It is
- 35:02Speaker 1: pretty much a sandwich spot for Iowa State though. I mean,
- 35:04Speaker 1: they just pulled off a nice win against SEC Mississippi State,
- 35:08Speaker 1: double digit win, nice win for Iowa State there, and
- 35:13Speaker 1: they do have Saint John's and Creighton coming up after this,
- 35:16Speaker 1: so they got some big opponents coming up after this.
- 35:18Speaker 1: So this does look like a game where Iowa State's
- 35:20Speaker 1: just not going to give their full effort and just
- 35:22Speaker 1: kind of go through the motions, get in, get out.
- 35:26Speaker 1: I have not added this to my card, but you're
- 35:28Speaker 1: getting a ton of points if you want. Stone Hill
- 35:30Speaker 1: Iowa stayed up from thirty seven to thirty nine and
- 35:33Speaker 1: a half. Now, Iowa State does like to go fast
- 35:38Speaker 1: and Stonehill does not, I believe, But I know I've
- 35:41Speaker 1: faded some of these fast paced teams recently in games
- 35:44Speaker 1: similar to this, or I thought they were in a
- 35:46Speaker 1: sandwich spot. And really the handicap is, even though this
- 35:49Speaker 1: team is fast, they just don't want to fatigue themselves, right,
- 35:52Speaker 1: They don't want to put in Like why would you
- 35:54Speaker 1: run yourselves out like against a team that you can
- 35:57Speaker 1: just beat easily without putting in one hundred percent, you
- 36:00Speaker 1: know what I mean. So that is still kind of
- 36:02Speaker 1: what I expect here. I don't expect a complete effort
- 36:05Speaker 1: from Iowa State. Obviously, I think they're gonna win easily,
- 36:08Speaker 1: but I don't think they're gonna cover the number. I'm
- 36:12Speaker 1: not gonna I am not giving this out as a play.
- 36:14Speaker 1: I'm not going to, but I just, yeah, I mean
- 36:19Speaker 1: something about stone Hill coming off that tournament and having
- 36:21Speaker 1: to go to an unfamiliar venue just scares me a
- 36:24Speaker 1: little bit about it. But I would take the points
- 36:27Speaker 1: with stone Hill if I was gonna do it. Stonehill
- 36:31Speaker 1: two and two against the spread. Yeah, that basically means
- 36:35Speaker 1: the odds makers are doing their job because they basically
- 36:38Speaker 1: want teams to be fifty to fifty against the spread.
- 36:41Speaker 1: Because that means the odds makers are making money because
- 36:46Speaker 1: they're collecting, you know, the the juice there the vague
- 36:50Speaker 1: nine and three in college football on Saturday. That's pretty solid, man,
- 36:54Speaker 1: nice win for you. I was only what was I
- 36:56Speaker 1: three and two? I was not happy about it Man
- 37:01Speaker 1: USC and Michigan State though I thought those were like
- 37:03Speaker 1: maybe the two strongest, and those both lost. I'm not
- 37:08Speaker 1: thrilled about that. Obviously, good plays by you, though obviously
- 37:12Speaker 1: I think I agreed with the majority of them, maybe
- 37:15Speaker 1: not all of them. Yeah, it's edging money. It is
- 37:19Speaker 1: the big or the juice. Yeah, Wisconsin ranked twenty fourth
- 37:24Speaker 1: in the country. I always stay of sixteenth. By the way,
- 37:26Speaker 1: Wisconsin's got SIU Edwardsville coming in. I Wisconsin a large
- 37:32Speaker 1: favor here. Obviously, Wisconsin really has not been tested yet,
- 37:35Speaker 1: and they do have a huge game up next against BYU.
- 37:39Speaker 1: That is a major look ahead spot for Wisconsin because
- 37:42Speaker 1: if you remember, BYU is the team that eliminated Wisconsin
- 37:46Speaker 1: from the tournament last year, which I had that right
- 37:49Speaker 1: in my bracket. By the way, my bracket was pretty strong, man.
- 37:54Speaker 1: It's just that I needed Florida to get bounced in
- 37:56Speaker 1: the tournament and it didn't happen, and I think it
- 37:58Speaker 1: should have early in the tournament. But yeah, I had
- 38:01Speaker 1: BYU getting to the sweet sixteen and bouncing Wisconsin, and
- 38:05Speaker 1: that is what happened. That was a crazy high scoring
- 38:08Speaker 1: game as well. Wisconsin's definitely gonna remember that, so they're
- 38:11Speaker 1: definitely gonna be They're gonna have that game circled. So
- 38:14Speaker 1: I do think Wisconsin probably not gonna come into this
- 38:17Speaker 1: game with a full effort. They are coming off of
- 38:19Speaker 1: a blowout win as well, but it was against ball State,
- 38:22Speaker 1: so it was it was not a max effort a
- 38:24Speaker 1: game for Wisconsin. I would imagine. SLU Edwardsville is one
- 38:28Speaker 1: of the better teams in the Ohio Valley. I think
- 38:30Speaker 1: they won that conference last year and then they got
- 38:35Speaker 1: destroyed by Houston as a sixteen seed in the tournament.
- 38:39Speaker 1: But SIU Edwardsville the reason why I don't want to
- 38:42Speaker 1: play them is they're coming off a big game as well.
- 38:44Speaker 1: They just upset Drake on the road seven and a
- 38:47Speaker 1: half point underdog. Big win for SIU Edwardsville, even though
- 38:50Speaker 1: I know Drake Ben McCollum has moved on to bigger
- 38:53Speaker 1: things in the state of Iowa, moving over to Iowa,
- 38:57Speaker 1: but still Drake the name and the fact that Drake
- 38:59Speaker 1: was a favorite. That's a pretty big win for SIU Edwardsville.
- 39:03Speaker 1: So I worry that there is kind of a letdown
- 39:05Speaker 1: component here, even though I do expect them to show up.
- 39:08Speaker 1: It makes it a bit more of a difficult spot
- 39:10Speaker 1: for them here. Although I do think this is a
- 39:11Speaker 1: major look ihead spot that Wisconsin is in. I do
- 39:15Speaker 1: expect Wisconsin to just not have their foot on the
- 39:18Speaker 1: gas in this game. So I would take the points
- 39:20Speaker 1: if I was gonna do it. Although here we see
- 39:22Speaker 1: eighty percent of the tickets on SIU Edwardsville, sixty eight
- 39:25Speaker 1: percent of the cash on Wisconsin. I don't get that
- 39:29Speaker 1: market read there. I don't get those percentages at all.
- 39:31Speaker 1: I think there's no way that the public is taking
- 39:34Speaker 1: SIU Edwardsville. But yes, if I was gonna play it,
- 39:37Speaker 1: I would take the points the card is really tough. Yeah,
- 39:43Speaker 1: I'm limiting myself a bit sob I've already given up
- 39:45Speaker 1: two plays though in college basketball, which I'm gonna reiterate
- 39:49Speaker 1: the end of the show. You can go back and
- 39:51Speaker 1: see my analysis River Rat, what's up man, Yes, sir,
- 39:55Speaker 1: we're not all free, man, that's the thing, like we're
- 39:59Speaker 1: we're all in a prison together here. All right, I'm
- 40:02Speaker 1: gonna give out another play right here, which this one's
- 40:04Speaker 1: probably the weakest of the four. But we're gonna take
- 40:07Speaker 1: North Dakota State plus the one and a half against
- 40:09Speaker 1: Southern Illinois. I do not like how this sets up
- 40:12Speaker 1: for Southern Illinois. I know I faded them in their
- 40:14Speaker 1: last game and I got caught. Ken Balm, I think
- 40:17Speaker 1: actually has both of these teams listed as being amongst
- 40:21Speaker 1: his luckier teams in the country, so that kind of
- 40:23Speaker 1: balances out. But Southern Illinois, they just went all the
- 40:26Speaker 1: way out to Nevada, and I got this game wrong.
- 40:29Speaker 1: I laid the points with Nevada. I gave it out
- 40:32Speaker 1: a ten on the show, and it went up to
- 40:33Speaker 1: eleven and a half, so the money agreed with it.
- 40:35Speaker 1: I didn't think it was a good spot for Southern
- 40:37Speaker 1: in Southern Illinois, but I thought Nevada was gonna show
- 40:40Speaker 1: up because they were coming off a bad performance in
- 40:42Speaker 1: the previous game, and Southern Illinois they played really well
- 40:46Speaker 1: in this game, and they took Nevada into overtime and
- 40:50Speaker 1: they had chances to win this game without Nevada was
- 40:52Speaker 1: terrible in this game though, even though they had few turnovers.
- 40:56Speaker 1: They won the rebound battle, but their shooting was awful
- 40:59Speaker 1: thirty from the field. Both teams are twenty four percent
- 41:02Speaker 1: from three, but very very bad shooting game from Nevada.
- 41:05Speaker 1: I think that was a bit of an outlier. Southern
- 41:07Speaker 1: Illinois did lose the rebound battle, so something that's, you know,
- 41:13Speaker 1: one of the more predictable stats that they did lose
- 41:15Speaker 1: with Southern Illinois. They had Nevada on the ropes, man,
- 41:17Speaker 1: they could have pulled off this win. They're winning for
- 41:20Speaker 1: more of the game than Nevada was, like, they had
- 41:23Speaker 1: the bigger lead in the game than Nevada did. Not
- 41:26Speaker 1: good for my play, obviously. I don't think Nevada was
- 41:28Speaker 1: ever covering in the game wire to wire cover for
- 41:31Speaker 1: Southern Illinois, but they wound up going into overtime and
- 41:34Speaker 1: then it looked like Nevada might actually be able to
- 41:36Speaker 1: pull away. I'm like, do it, man, do it? Like
- 41:39Speaker 1: just cover and overtime, Like give me a bad beat
- 41:43Speaker 1: on my side for once. No, Nevada won by five.
- 41:46Speaker 1: Didn't cover. But coming up of that game, that was
- 41:49Speaker 1: a huge game for Southern Illinois. They put in a
- 41:51Speaker 1: max effort in that game. Now they got to go
- 41:53Speaker 1: up to North Dakota. I don't like the spot here, man,
- 41:56Speaker 1: I really don't. Uh. North Dakota State is two and
- 41:59Speaker 1: OHO at home, although I don't think they've really played
- 42:01Speaker 1: any good opponents. Fuck you ad block, I'm not gonna
- 42:03Speaker 1: buy your premium shit, North Dakota State. I mean, their
- 42:07Speaker 1: two home games have been somewhat easy against cal State
- 42:11Speaker 1: Northridge and Scholastic or whoever that is. But they are
- 42:15Speaker 1: still too and oh at home, and they have some
- 42:17Speaker 1: momentum Right now, they're just staying at home, so the
- 42:19Speaker 1: travel spot is better for North Dakota State. And I
- 42:22Speaker 1: don't think they're gonna be over confident. I just think
- 42:24Speaker 1: they have some momentum. Sorry, that school is Saint Scholastica.
- 42:29Speaker 1: He's the patron saint of of one of my what's
- 42:35Speaker 1: the terminology I'm looking for of elementary schools subscription reading
- 42:40Speaker 1: material I don't know is which probably involves all like
- 42:45Speaker 1: trans propaganda. Now, no, I have no idea, but Saint
- 42:48Speaker 1: Scholastica North Dakota State annihilated them, but I don't really
- 42:52Speaker 1: see them being overconfident after beating a non Division one team.
- 42:56Speaker 1: So bad spot for souther of in Illinois. I don't
- 43:00Speaker 1: consider it to be a negative spot for North Dakota State,
- 43:03Speaker 1: so we're gonna go with it. The line has dropped
- 43:05Speaker 1: from two and a half to one and a half
- 43:06Speaker 1: of Southern Illinois being the favorite. You're getting points at
- 43:09Speaker 1: home with North Dakota State. I'm not gonna say they're
- 43:12Speaker 1: the better team because they're not, but I don't think
- 43:15Speaker 1: they're that much worse either. Ninety three percent of tickets
- 43:17Speaker 1: ninety six percent of the cash coming in on North
- 43:19Speaker 1: Dakota State, and North Dakota State does like to slow
- 43:23Speaker 1: the pace down, so you know, I like these home
- 43:25Speaker 1: underdogs with these slower paced teams. Excuse me. Kem Baum
- 43:30Speaker 1: has North Dakota State being one of the unluckiest teams
- 43:32Speaker 1: in the nation. He has them as like the eighth
- 43:34Speaker 1: unluckiest team in the Nation right now, which means that
- 43:36Speaker 1: they're better than they look. But he has Southern Illinois
- 43:40Speaker 1: very unlucky as well. He actually has them has like
- 43:43Speaker 1: the fourteenth unluckiest, so both teams unlucky. But I think
- 43:49Speaker 1: that just negates itself. Southern Illinois likes to play a
- 43:52Speaker 1: fast tempo throw in the top one hundred. I think
- 43:54Speaker 1: on North Dakota State will be able to slow it
- 43:56Speaker 1: down a bit, throw them out of their element. The
- 43:59Speaker 1: total is kind of just in the mid range of
- 44:01Speaker 1: totals at one hundred and fifty four. We'll take North
- 44:04Speaker 1: Dakota State plus the points in that one, Buffalo Sabers
- 44:09Speaker 1: money line, Pelicans first quarter plus the points Bucks first
- 44:13Speaker 1: half plus the points yet sab I don't know, man,
- 44:17Speaker 1: You're your volume is it's too I think my volume
- 44:21Speaker 1: is high. Your volume is like out of control. Man. Uh.
- 44:26Speaker 1: I'll talk about the Sabers shortly. I don't really have
- 44:29Speaker 1: a I don't have much of a feel on those
- 44:31Speaker 1: other games though. All right, what else do we have today?
- 44:37Speaker 1: On college basketball? My last play that I'm gonna give
- 44:40Speaker 1: out is right here. We're gonna take the points with
- 44:43Speaker 1: Tulsa against Kansas State plus thirteen and a half with Tulsa.
- 44:50Speaker 1: Don't really see much of the percentages of the obvious.
- 44:52Speaker 1: See sixty five percent of the tickets, one hundred percent
- 44:54Speaker 1: of the cash on Tulsa. I'm not sure that I
- 44:56Speaker 1: buy that, but I think you can get thirteen thirteen
- 44:58Speaker 1: and a half right now with Tulls. I like it
- 45:01Speaker 1: as a bounced backspot for Tulsa, man, because if you remember,
- 45:03Speaker 1: we went against Tulsa in their last game, we took
- 45:06Speaker 1: Oral Roberts and the handicap was ORL. Roberts is the
- 45:10Speaker 1: little brother in the city of Tulsa, So they really
- 45:12Speaker 1: get up for a game against Tulsa, whereas Tulsa I
- 45:15Speaker 1: thought might overlook them a little bit coming up beating
- 45:17Speaker 1: Rhode Island and then Tulsa had this big game against
- 45:20Speaker 1: Kansas State up next. They got this game, circle, dude,
- 45:23Speaker 1: this is like their biggest game of the season. Like,
- 45:26Speaker 1: I don't think they face any Power Conference opponents for
- 45:29Speaker 1: the remainder. This is the only one the entire season,
- 45:32Speaker 1: So I think Tulsa was in a big time look
- 45:35Speaker 1: ahead spot. They almost lost to Oral Roberts, and now
- 45:38Speaker 1: that loss is explainable, or that one point win is explainable.
- 45:44Speaker 1: But also I think because they got that major scare
- 45:47Speaker 1: by ORL. Roberts and almost lost the game, I think,
- 45:50Speaker 1: you know, that's gonna give them more focus coming into
- 45:52Speaker 1: this game. So I'm expecting a big effort out of
- 45:54Speaker 1: Tulsa here. I don't think they're gonna be totally intimidated
- 45:57Speaker 1: going up into Manhattan, Kansas, to be honest, even though
- 46:00Speaker 1: usually it is a pretty difficult place to play, but
- 46:02Speaker 1: it's not that far from Tulsa, Kansas. They got bigger
- 46:05Speaker 1: things that they're trying. They're trying to do this year.
- 46:08Speaker 1: Man Kansas is coming up a big game over Cal
- 46:11Speaker 1: big win, although Kansas did not cover the spread, But
- 46:14Speaker 1: this is Cal Man. I mean, it's an acc team.
- 46:16Speaker 1: They're off to a decent start. Kansas State beat them,
- 46:19Speaker 1: that's a big win. But if you look at what
- 46:21Speaker 1: happened in this game, both teams shot like out of
- 46:24Speaker 1: control high in this game. There was like no deepfense
- 46:26Speaker 1: in this game. But Kansas State shot sixty four percent
- 46:30Speaker 1: from the field, fifty percent from three. You know that's
- 46:33Speaker 1: gonna regrass, dude, even though I know Cal shot fifty
- 46:35Speaker 1: four percent from three, but yeah, there's no way Kansas
- 46:39Speaker 1: State is gonna shoot sixty four percent from the field again,
- 46:42Speaker 1: especially if they're not really focused, and I think they
- 46:44Speaker 1: might not be coming up that big win. They got
- 46:47Speaker 1: a bigger game up next. They have two big games
- 46:49Speaker 1: coming up after this against Mississippi State and Indiana, so
- 46:53Speaker 1: they got two Power Conference opponents coming up right after this.
- 46:56Speaker 1: Mississippi State will be in the middle of the week.
- 46:59Speaker 1: So I think it's a sandwich spot that Kansas State
- 47:02Speaker 1: is in. I do not like it for them. I
- 47:04Speaker 1: like Tulsa to show up Kansas State big name. I
- 47:08Speaker 1: know they're making the tournament a bunch of years in
- 47:10Speaker 1: a row. They took a step back last year though, man,
- 47:13Speaker 1: and right now, I think they're still kind of in
- 47:15Speaker 1: a rebuild mode. Right now. I think they'll be maybe,
- 47:18Speaker 1: you know, in the mix to try to get a
- 47:19Speaker 1: tournament bid this year. But they're not like one of
- 47:22Speaker 1: these upper rational on Big twelve teams right now. And
- 47:26Speaker 1: as far as yeah, Tulsa against Oral Roberts, I mean
- 47:30Speaker 1: Oral Roberts shot really well in the game, fifty percent
- 47:32Speaker 1: from the field. Both teams were in the low forties
- 47:35Speaker 1: from three point range, so that was kind of an outlier.
- 47:37Speaker 1: Tulsa out rebounded them, by the way, by nine, So
- 47:40Speaker 1: the more predictable stat of rebounds, Tulsa out rebounded them.
- 47:44Speaker 1: So that's a decent sign for Tulsa coming into this one.
- 47:46Speaker 1: We're gonna take the points with Tulsa and that is
- 47:48Speaker 1: the fourth and final college basketball play on my car. There.
- 47:54Speaker 1: You like the Tea Wolves against the Mavericks. Oh, boy,
- 48:00Speaker 1: Wolves will not cover against both Dallas and the Wizards.
- 48:05Speaker 1: I don't know, man, I mean, it's all I can't
- 48:07Speaker 1: really call what's gonna happen in the next game necessarily
- 48:10Speaker 1: because it all depends on what happens in tonight's game.
- 48:15Speaker 1: I'm gonna yeah, I'll talk about that game in a minute. Well,
- 48:18Speaker 1: once I get to the NBA for the remaining games
- 48:21Speaker 1: here on the board that we have here today, I mean,
- 48:24Speaker 1: I don't really have a whole lot else to say
- 48:26Speaker 1: about this board. Gonzaga. You could argue Gonzaga is in
- 48:29Speaker 1: kind of a bad spot because they had a big
- 48:31Speaker 1: win against Creighton at home, blew them out. Then they
- 48:34Speaker 1: went down to Arizona State first true road game, got
- 48:36Speaker 1: a nice double digit win there against Arizona State. Now
- 48:39Speaker 1: they come home and they got this Southern Utah team
- 48:42Speaker 1: that you gotta think Gonzaga is just gonna go through
- 48:44Speaker 1: the motions here and just look past them. They got
- 48:47Speaker 1: a week off and then they play Alabama next, which
- 48:49Speaker 1: is a huge game. So it's basically a sandwich spot there.
- 48:53Speaker 1: So I don't love Gonzaga there. Southern Utah they're pretty
- 48:58Speaker 1: bad though, man, Like I don't know if I don't
- 49:00Speaker 1: know if I can actually do it, and they're coming
- 49:02Speaker 1: up a pretty nice performance against Omaha where they went
- 49:05Speaker 1: on the road. I thought this was actually kind of
- 49:06Speaker 1: a bad spot for Southern Utah, or I thought it
- 49:09Speaker 1: was kind of a positive for Omaha. Like I gave
- 49:12Speaker 1: out a leon on Omaha minus the points in this one,
- 49:14Speaker 1: and Omaha did not cover as eight and a half
- 49:16Speaker 1: point favorite. Southern Utah played well in this game as
- 49:19Speaker 1: an underdog, even though Omaha shot ridiculously well in the
- 49:22Speaker 1: game and still didn't cover, which does say something. It
- 49:26Speaker 1: does say that even though Southern Southern Utah excuse me,
- 49:30Speaker 1: shot horribly in the game and they still cover the spread,
- 49:33Speaker 1: that does tell you something. It's about Southern Utah. I
- 49:35Speaker 1: guess that maybe they're actually not terrible, although I still
- 49:39Speaker 1: think they are people are also gonna look at this
- 49:42Speaker 1: and say, oh, Gonzaga beat Arizona State by double digits.
- 49:46Speaker 1: In Arizona State beat Southern Utah by double digits, But
- 49:49Speaker 1: everybody already knows Gonzaga is the way better team, so whatever.
- 49:53Speaker 1: But yeah, the one thing that worries me about Southern
- 49:55Speaker 1: Utah is they had that big performance in Omaha a
- 49:58Speaker 1: couple of days ago. So as an underdog, so I
- 50:01Speaker 1: worry a little bit. I would still take the points
- 50:03Speaker 1: here with them, but the money seems to disagree. Gonzag
- 50:07Speaker 1: is up from thirty four and a half to thirty
- 50:08Speaker 1: five and a half, sixty percent of the cash on Gonzaga,
- 50:12Speaker 1: fifty percent of the tickets evenly split. Yeah, I mean again,
- 50:17Speaker 1: that one's definitely a stay away. And then we have
- 50:21Speaker 1: North Alabama and Clemson, where you could argue that Clemson
- 50:24Speaker 1: is in a sandwich spot, maybe a letdown spot, because
- 50:27Speaker 1: they just took their first loss of the season on
- 50:29Speaker 1: the road at Georgetown, a big East team that looks
- 50:32Speaker 1: like they're kind of on the rise again here that
- 50:34Speaker 1: was a big game and Clemson took the loss. Now
- 50:36Speaker 1: they have to come back home with face North Alabama,
- 50:39Speaker 1: who they may not pay attention to the North Alabama
- 50:42Speaker 1: if you remember, they made the ASUN title game last year,
- 50:45Speaker 1: and we're pretty competitive in that game as well, which
- 50:47Speaker 1: I think was against Kennesaw. I want to say they're
- 50:52Speaker 1: not that bad of a team, though, I think they're
- 50:54Speaker 1: a little bit under the radar. Clemson also does have
- 50:57Speaker 1: West Virginia up next, so a big twelve team. I
- 51:00Speaker 1: know Georgetown and West Virginia are not these like Upper
- 51:02Speaker 1: Rachelan teams in their conferences, but I do think it's
- 51:05Speaker 1: still a sandwich spot and it being Clemson's first loss
- 51:09Speaker 1: in their last game could hang them over a bit.
- 51:12Speaker 1: North Alabama they're coming off a home loss to East Tennessee.
- 51:17Speaker 1: East Tennessee decent team, though that was kind of a
- 51:20Speaker 1: big game because it was a conference challenge game there
- 51:25Speaker 1: between the A Sun and the SoCon. So North Alabama's
- 51:28Speaker 1: having to come off of that loss. They've only played
- 51:31Speaker 1: one game on the road and they were pretty non
- 51:33Speaker 1: competitive against Mississippi State, so I don't know. They lost
- 51:37Speaker 1: by twenty four and that one I'm staying away, but
- 51:41Speaker 1: Clemson is almost exactly a twenty four point favorite. They're
- 51:44Speaker 1: down to twenty three and a half it is a
- 51:46Speaker 1: fairly low total one hundred and forty four and a half.
- 51:48Speaker 1: So if you do like North Alabama, the points are
- 51:51Speaker 1: going to be more valuable in a game like that
- 51:54Speaker 1: with a low total. So that's what we got going
- 51:56Speaker 1: on in that one, which, by the way, the Tulsa game,
- 51:59Speaker 1: I really it is a high total, so maybe some
- 52:03Speaker 1: concern there as far as the pacing in that game.
- 52:06Speaker 1: By the way, Kansas State does play a fast tempo
- 52:08Speaker 1: and Tulsa does not. Tulsa wants to play slow, but
- 52:12Speaker 1: I just think Kansas State's not gonna push the tempo
- 52:15Speaker 1: to the max in that game because I don't think
- 52:16Speaker 1: it's that big of that much of a big game
- 52:19Speaker 1: for them, So I think they're gonna try to save
- 52:22Speaker 1: some of their energy, you know what I mean. So
- 52:24Speaker 1: that's how I've been handicapping these games recently. With the
- 52:27Speaker 1: faster paced team that I think is in a bad spot,
- 52:32Speaker 1: you know, I just think they might not go full
- 52:34Speaker 1: throttle because they want to save their energy. So Tulsa
- 52:39Speaker 1: may be able to get that game into a bit
- 52:40Speaker 1: of a slower pace. And then we do have a
- 52:42Speaker 1: rivalry game between Oregon State and Oregon here, and I
- 52:44Speaker 1: believe Oregon went into Corvallis, into Oregon State last year
- 52:48Speaker 1: and beat them, so it's a little bit of revenge
- 52:51Speaker 1: for Oregon State. I think Oregon State treats this game
- 52:54Speaker 1: as a bigger game than Oregon does because Oregon State
- 52:57Speaker 1: was one of the teams from the Pac twelve that
- 52:59Speaker 1: got orphaned and now basketball they're in the WCC, so
- 53:02Speaker 1: they're down in a non power conferences. Oregon got to
- 53:05Speaker 1: move up to the Big Ten, so I think Oregon
- 53:07Speaker 1: State does play with a chip on their shoulder against Oregon.
- 53:11Speaker 1: Oregon State's coming up that game where I think they
- 53:14Speaker 1: know they got lucky. They only beat North Texas because
- 53:16Speaker 1: North Texas called a time out when they didn't have
- 53:19Speaker 1: any left in Oregon State one on technical foul shots,
- 53:22Speaker 1: so I think Oregon State realizes they got really lucky
- 53:25Speaker 1: in that game. This is gonna be their first true
- 53:27Speaker 1: road game, but staying in the state of Oregon, and
- 53:30Speaker 1: obviously not an unfamiliar venue to them because this is
- 53:33Speaker 1: a team that used to play at Oregon every single
- 53:36Speaker 1: year because when they were in the same conference, they
- 53:38Speaker 1: played each other in both venues every year. So I
- 53:40Speaker 1: don't think they're gonna be intimidated by that. Oregon. I mean,
- 53:44Speaker 1: they're not excellent this year, and we've seen they have
- 53:46Speaker 1: not been good as a home favorite this year. Man, Oregon,
- 53:49Speaker 1: They're own three against the spread. They've been a home
- 53:52Speaker 1: favorite in every game so far, and they haven't covered
- 53:55Speaker 1: any of them. And they're ower and two for me
- 53:57Speaker 1: because I expected them to bounce back, can play better
- 54:00Speaker 1: in each of those two games, and they didn't do it.
- 54:03Speaker 1: And they have Auburn up next. I mean, I don't
- 54:05Speaker 1: think they're gonna overlook Oregon State because it is a
- 54:07Speaker 1: huge rivalry for both teams, but maybe there is something
- 54:11Speaker 1: in the back of their head, like we got these
- 54:12Speaker 1: bigger games coming up. Man, Auburn, pretty big game there.
- 54:16Speaker 1: So I would take the points with the Oregon State
- 54:17Speaker 1: in this game if I was gonna do it. Oregon's
- 54:21Speaker 1: up from eleven and a half to thirteen here, seventy
- 54:23Speaker 1: five percent of tickets, ninety five percent of the cash
- 54:25Speaker 1: on Oregon State. So it looks like the money is
- 54:27Speaker 1: coming back on Oregon State there. Yeah, so we'll see
- 54:32Speaker 1: what happens in that game. Not getting involved. Yeah, Oregon,
- 54:37Speaker 1: I hate them right now. Obviously. Let's hope that Southern
- 54:41Speaker 1: Illinois doesn't become my new nemesis because this would be
- 54:43Speaker 1: the second time I'm trying to fade them. Nah, I
- 54:46Speaker 1: don't think it's gonna happen. Oregon, I think. I don't
- 54:48Speaker 1: think they're gonna cover this. Oh, this is a low total,
- 54:52Speaker 1: two down, one hundred and forty one. Oregon plays a
- 54:55Speaker 1: lot of low scoring games, man, so it is more
- 54:58Speaker 1: difficult for them to cover by a margin like that
- 55:01Speaker 1: because they play these ugly low scoring games. So they're
- 55:05Speaker 1: not gonna win by thirty. They may cover the spread,
- 55:10Speaker 1: but all right, NHL, we don't have a ton of
- 55:13Speaker 1: games today in the NHL. I like Mondays because they're
- 55:16Speaker 1: you know, the boards smaller. Though, of course, college basketball
- 55:18Speaker 1: is huge. I'm gonna give out one hockey play here.
- 55:22Speaker 1: I'm trying to limit myself here. Man. My Boston Bruins
- 55:25Speaker 1: kick off the slate here playing against Carolina. This is
- 55:28Speaker 1: a big game kind of for both teams at this
- 55:31Speaker 1: point because Carolina they're rolling. They're playing pretty well, although
- 55:34Speaker 1: they've lost a couple of games recently. But you figure
- 55:37Speaker 1: they'll probably show up here because they're going back to
- 55:40Speaker 1: where they lost. Their third most recent loss was at
- 55:43Speaker 1: Boston back in November first, so I think they're gonna
- 55:46Speaker 1: remember that and they're gonna show up here. But the
- 55:49Speaker 1: spot isn't great for Carolina here as they're playing a
- 55:53Speaker 1: third game in four days, the first two of which
- 55:55Speaker 1: went into overtime, and they are coming off taking Edmonton
- 55:58Speaker 1: into overtime, and I think Carolina kind of treated that
- 56:01Speaker 1: as like this should have been the Stanley Cup Final
- 56:03Speaker 1: matchup last year because they think Carolina I believe lost
- 56:07Speaker 1: to Florida and the conference championship round last year, conference
- 56:14Speaker 1: championship series, whatever, Eastern Conference finals, so I think that
- 56:19Speaker 1: was a big game for Carolina, though I mean it
- 56:20Speaker 1: was against Edmonton. They put in a huge effort, went
- 56:23Speaker 1: to overtime. Don't love the spot that they're in here,
- 56:26Speaker 1: although they are starting a road trip, but I do
- 56:28Speaker 1: say teams will be focused to start the road trip.
- 56:30Speaker 1: Carolina is doing something where they're using a different goalie
- 56:33Speaker 1: every single day, so their goalie is rested coming into
- 56:36Speaker 1: this one. Assuming they're not gonna use Anderson back to back,
- 56:39Speaker 1: although they did do that once or twice this year,
- 56:42Speaker 1: both back in October, unlikely they're gonna do it this
- 56:45Speaker 1: time though. Boston, my boss and Bruins there. They're on
- 56:52Speaker 1: a nice roll, man, and they did not suffer a
- 56:55Speaker 1: hangover effect after losing a long win streak against Ottawa.
- 56:58Speaker 1: They bounced back with a big win for Montreal. But
- 57:01Speaker 1: I think that kind of puts them in a bit
- 57:02Speaker 1: of a letdown spot here because big rivalry between Boston
- 57:06Speaker 1: and Montreal and Montreal is pretty good again, so that
- 57:08Speaker 1: was a big win for the Bruins in Montreal. Now
- 57:11Speaker 1: they're coming back home. It was only a two game
- 57:13Speaker 1: road trip, so I don't really really consider it to
- 57:15Speaker 1: be like one of the huge road trip return spots
- 57:17Speaker 1: where they've been away for a long time. That's not
- 57:19Speaker 1: the case. I don't think they're gonna overlook Carolina either,
- 57:23Speaker 1: because Carolina is so good. But the Bruins do have
- 57:25Speaker 1: Anaheim up Mexican. Anaheim did beat Boston in Boston in
- 57:29Speaker 1: late October, so they I don't know if they're gonna
- 57:32Speaker 1: have one eye looking ahead to that game. Probably not.
- 57:36Speaker 1: I mean, they'll probably still focus on Carolina. Basically, I
- 57:40Speaker 1: think both teams will show up here, but that probably
- 57:42Speaker 1: means the better team is gonna be the team to
- 57:44Speaker 1: win out. Carolina is a big favorite as the Bruins.
- 57:47Speaker 1: I almost said the Red Sox. The Bruins are still
- 57:49Speaker 1: not getting any market respect here. Carolina up from minus
- 57:53Speaker 1: one or down from minus one ninety five to minus
- 57:54Speaker 1: one eighty eight, seventy two percent of the tickets and
- 57:57Speaker 1: ninety five percent of the cash on Carolina. Like the
- 58:00Speaker 1: money's coming in on the Carolina side, I don't want
- 58:03Speaker 1: to touch it. I mean, to me, I think the
- 58:06Speaker 1: spot is actually a little bit worse for Carolina because
- 58:08Speaker 1: they've played more games in the last few days and
- 58:12Speaker 1: took Edmonton to overtime in the last game. But we
- 58:19Speaker 1: will see. I mean, it is a return home spot
- 58:21Speaker 1: technically for the Bruins, but again I don't think they're
- 58:24Speaker 1: gonna be distracted because they haven't been away for that long.
- 58:26Speaker 1: I don't think they're gonna overlook Carolina. But it is
- 58:28Speaker 1: technically a road trip return in a road trip start
- 58:31Speaker 1: for Carolina, where usually I look to the team to
- 58:33Speaker 1: start the road trip, Edmonton is at Buffalo. I do
- 58:37Speaker 1: think Edmonton's in a bad spot. Edmonton just beat Carolina
- 58:42Speaker 1: in overtime on the road. Now they're going up to Buffalo,
- 58:45Speaker 1: who has not been very good, and they do Washington,
- 58:47Speaker 1: Tampa Bay, Florida, Dallas all coming up next. Those are
- 58:50Speaker 1: all bigger games, so it is pretty much a sandwich
- 58:53Speaker 1: spot for Edmonton here. I don't like the spot. I
- 58:56Speaker 1: think they might overlook Buffalo here. However, Buffalo just beat
- 59:01Speaker 1: Detroit man on the road, and the returning home from
- 59:04Speaker 1: a road trip, I don't like it, man, I do
- 59:07Speaker 1: not like it for Buffalo here either. In Buffalo, they
- 59:09Speaker 1: played on the twelve, thirteenth, and fifteenth, so they're playing
- 59:12Speaker 1: a fourth game in six days on top of it
- 59:15Speaker 1: being a road trip return. I don't love that. The
- 59:19Speaker 1: one good thing is they broke their lost streak. So
- 59:21Speaker 1: sometimes when you break your lost streak with a win,
- 59:24Speaker 1: it will carry over into the next game. But in
- 59:27Speaker 1: this game, and again it was a big upset win
- 59:30Speaker 1: on the road against Detroit. The returning over from a
- 59:32Speaker 1: road trip here, which I'd like to say, that tends
- 59:35Speaker 1: to be a distraction spot. You got to get back
- 59:37Speaker 1: to home life. They're not gonna overlook Edmonton, but still,
- 59:41Speaker 1: I mean, that's still I think is some sort of
- 59:43Speaker 1: a factor even if you are playing a better team
- 59:45Speaker 1: like Edmonton. The money in this one is reflecting on Edmonton.
- 59:49Speaker 1: They're definitely my one sixty to one to fifty five
- 59:51Speaker 1: on the money line, but eighty seven percent of the
- 59:53Speaker 1: cash on them seventy two percent of the tickets on Buffalo,
- 59:57Speaker 1: which I don't buy. The Buffalo is a public side
- 59:59Speaker 1: in this game, though, but I can't get there with
- 1:00:02Speaker 1: either team. They're both in bad spots. So you know
- 1:00:05Speaker 1: what my opinion will be on this game, It'll be
- 1:00:08Speaker 1: the over. I mean, Edmonton, they could score Buffalo. Not
- 1:00:12Speaker 1: good defensively, not good goaltending. I don't like the goaltending
- 1:00:15Speaker 1: on either side really either, So I think in over,
- 1:00:18Speaker 1: with both these teams also being in spots where they
- 1:00:21Speaker 1: might be tired out, which can reflect on defense, over
- 1:00:25Speaker 1: makes sense to me in that game Vancouver at Florida,
- 1:00:32Speaker 1: and I'm gonna keep watching those overs to the point
- 1:00:34Speaker 1: where maybe I'll get confident in my overcalls and get
- 1:00:37Speaker 1: back to actually giving them out as plays. But Vancouver
- 1:00:42Speaker 1: is coming up a nice win over Tampa Bay. I
- 1:00:44Speaker 1: mean that was yesterday too, So it's a bad spot
- 1:00:49Speaker 1: for them, man, because they just played Carolina and Tampa
- 1:00:51Speaker 1: Bay and now they're going to Florida three games on
- 1:00:54Speaker 1: the road in a four day SPANOK took Carolina to
- 1:00:57Speaker 1: overtime and then beat Tampa Bay. You think they were
- 1:01:00Speaker 1: focus on Florida because Florida is the back to back
- 1:01:02Speaker 1: defending returning champs, But it is possible Vancouver runs out
- 1:01:06Speaker 1: of steam in this game, man. Just this is just
- 1:01:10Speaker 1: the scheduling. Spot's pretty difficult for them, and I thought
- 1:01:13Speaker 1: they might overlook Tampa Bay and play harder against Florida.
- 1:01:16Speaker 1: But they got that big win against Tampa It did
- 1:01:18Speaker 1: end a lost streak for them. But this looks like
- 1:01:21Speaker 1: a tough spot, man for Vancouver. For Florida. Florida just
- 1:01:26Speaker 1: lost to that same Tampa Bay team and they're staying
- 1:01:29Speaker 1: at home and they've had a day off, so Florida
- 1:01:31Speaker 1: is gonna be the more rested team. I think they're
- 1:01:33Speaker 1: gonna want to bounce back off of that ugly loss.
- 1:01:36Speaker 1: And people might look at this and say, oh, Vancouver
- 1:01:38Speaker 1: just smacked Tampa Bay at Tampa Bay and Florida just
- 1:01:41Speaker 1: lost to Tampa Bay at home, So the public might
- 1:01:45Speaker 1: actually even start thinking that there's some value taking Vancouver
- 1:01:49Speaker 1: here for that reason. Although as you know, I gave
- 1:01:52Speaker 1: out Tampa Bay on Saturday as one of my hockey plays.
- 1:01:54Speaker 1: We swept two and zero in hockey on Saturday. I
- 1:01:58Speaker 1: told you Tampa Bay was in a huge room avenge
- 1:02:00Speaker 1: spot there because Florida was the team that knocked them
- 1:02:03Speaker 1: out of the playoffs last year, so that was part
- 1:02:06Speaker 1: of the handicap there. Plus Florida I thought was just
- 1:02:09Speaker 1: in a bad spot after beating Vegas and Washington, so
- 1:02:12Speaker 1: that loss was a little bit explainable. So I do
- 1:02:15Speaker 1: like Florida in this game, but they're a monster favorite here,
- 1:02:19Speaker 1: which also I think the public is actually maybe gonna
- 1:02:21Speaker 1: think there's some value taking. Vancouver is such a massive underdog.
- 1:02:27Speaker 1: This tells you what the odds makers think of Vancouver
- 1:02:29Speaker 1: this year, by the way, and they think Florida is
- 1:02:31Speaker 1: still pretty good. Florida's then for seventy to minus two
- 1:02:37Speaker 1: sixty five, ninety four percent tickets, ninety eight percent of
- 1:02:39Speaker 1: the cash on Florida, So they are looking public in
- 1:02:42Speaker 1: the market here. But if you wanted to play this game,
- 1:02:46Speaker 1: I would find a way to play Florida. That would
- 1:02:49Speaker 1: be my opinion in that one, if you want to
- 1:02:50Speaker 1: lay like a minus one and a half puck line
- 1:02:53Speaker 1: on it, which, by the way, that did win with
- 1:02:54Speaker 1: Colorado yesterday. I was correct on Detroit. Sorry, Jeffrey, don't
- 1:02:59Speaker 1: be can't play the Rangers at home, man, I'm telling you,
- 1:03:02Speaker 1: And I thought it was a bad spot too. I
- 1:03:04Speaker 1: like to Detroit. I almost added Detroit to my car,
- 1:03:06Speaker 1: and I'm mad I didn't yesterday. And then I did
- 1:03:09Speaker 1: also like Colorado yesterday, and they wound up getting the
- 1:03:11Speaker 1: win after they were down one nothing. I told you
- 1:03:13Speaker 1: the Islanders were gonna run out of steam there, although
- 1:03:16Speaker 1: I thought it was gonna happen in a game earlier.
- 1:03:18Speaker 1: But yeah, Colorado did cover the puck line in that one,
- 1:03:23Speaker 1: so I don't hate the puck line with Florida on
- 1:03:25Speaker 1: this one. An angling and NHL totals every wait, every
- 1:03:33Speaker 1: line the same and everyone betting over what do you mean?
- 1:03:39Speaker 1: I mean, I just I don't think the public just
- 1:03:40Speaker 1: really heavily. The NHL is not a very publicly bet
- 1:03:44Speaker 1: sport at all. It's like it's mostly professional money in
- 1:03:48Speaker 1: the NFL. In the NHL market, the public just doesn't
- 1:03:51Speaker 1: pay a whole lot of attention to it, especially when
- 1:03:53Speaker 1: NBA and football are all going on. NHL is like
- 1:03:57Speaker 1: the least publicly bet of all of them, and I
- 1:03:58Speaker 1: think fairly significant. So that might be why I do
- 1:04:02Speaker 1: better in the NHL because you can come in and
- 1:04:04Speaker 1: find some nice spots, maybe some value. But I do
- 1:04:08Speaker 1: better in the NBA still for whatever reason. No, you
- 1:04:14Speaker 1: don't suck. I mean, I just disagreed with that one.
- 1:04:20Speaker 1: But yeah, I mean there are some strong trends right
- 1:04:22Speaker 1: now with that Ranger team with the home road dichotomy
- 1:04:26Speaker 1: is ridiculous and I'm gonna keep rolling with it. I
- 1:04:28Speaker 1: should have done it yesterday, but that Ranger home road
- 1:04:31Speaker 1: dichotomy is paid off on the show a lot this
- 1:04:34Speaker 1: year already. But yeah, as far as the dude, I
- 1:04:39Speaker 1: don't know. I just can't bring myself to get in
- 1:04:41Speaker 1: on unders in the NHL like ever, like, empty net
- 1:04:44Speaker 1: goals are just too much of a danger, with the
- 1:04:47Speaker 1: totals being so like the margins being so razor thin,
- 1:04:51Speaker 1: I would just much rather want to be on an over,
- 1:04:53Speaker 1: even though I know that's the way the public thinks,
- 1:04:55Speaker 1: But in hockey, I think there's actually a legitimate reason
- 1:04:58Speaker 1: to think that way because the empty net goals are
- 1:05:00Speaker 1: a huge hazard. And again, in a game where the
- 1:05:05Speaker 1: totals are they're so like there are not that many
- 1:05:07Speaker 1: goals scored, so the totals are so low that one
- 1:05:10Speaker 1: of those can put like basically every single game over all, Right,
- 1:05:16Speaker 1: La Kings at Washington. King's four wins in a row.
- 1:05:19Speaker 1: They won every game on the road trip, so at
- 1:05:22Speaker 1: some point you think they might run out of steam.
- 1:05:24Speaker 1: I don't know. I mean, they beat Pittsburgh than Montreal, Toronto, Ottawa.
- 1:05:28Speaker 1: Those are three big wins up in Canada. Now they're
- 1:05:31Speaker 1: going down to Washington. Washington's been kind of mediocre this year,
- 1:05:34Speaker 1: so it is possible the Kings kind of run out
- 1:05:36Speaker 1: of steam here. They use Forsburg and net on Saturday,
- 1:05:39Speaker 1: so we'll be kemper back in Net here. Who is
- 1:05:42Speaker 1: their better goalie? So that they do have that going
- 1:05:45Speaker 1: for them Washington. I mean, I could see arguments that
- 1:05:49Speaker 1: they're in a positive and a negative spot here because
- 1:05:51Speaker 1: Washington return over from a road trip. They lost to
- 1:05:54Speaker 1: New Jersey in a shootout. Returning over from a road trip,
- 1:05:57Speaker 1: it's a difficult spot. As I always preach, it could
- 1:06:01Speaker 1: be a you know, a spot where you get distracted
- 1:06:03Speaker 1: because you've been away from home. You got to get
- 1:06:05Speaker 1: back and do stuff back at home, whatever that could
- 1:06:08Speaker 1: take your mind away from the game. Well, the Washington
- 1:06:11Speaker 1: seems like they weren't distracted in that game because they
- 1:06:13Speaker 1: took this good Devil's team into overtime. And ever it
- 1:06:16Speaker 1: was that the first game without Hughes, I don't remember. Yeah,
- 1:06:21Speaker 1: I think it was because the Devils haven't played since then,
- 1:06:25Speaker 1: so yes, I believe so, so you can argue that
- 1:06:28Speaker 1: Washington's gonna be kind of in a hangover spot after that.
- 1:06:31Speaker 1: I don't think they're gonna overlook the Kings because the
- 1:06:33Speaker 1: Kings have been hot and they have a good record,
- 1:06:35Speaker 1: even though I know they got Edmonton coming up next.
- 1:06:37Speaker 1: Washington does, but you could argue also, this is a
- 1:06:41Speaker 1: second game back home, and if they did fall into
- 1:06:43Speaker 1: that distraction spot in the first game, you get what
- 1:06:46Speaker 1: you need to do done at home, and then you
- 1:06:47Speaker 1: focus more on hockey in the next game. So I
- 1:06:50Speaker 1: don't like the spot for either team. The money is
- 1:06:53Speaker 1: indicating on Washington down for minus one thirty one twenty
- 1:06:57Speaker 1: nine on the money line, eighty four percent of the
- 1:06:59Speaker 1: cash them, eighty three percent of the tickets on La
- 1:07:02Speaker 1: so LA is the public side, which it also does
- 1:07:05Speaker 1: look a little bit strange that Washington is a favorite.
- 1:07:08Speaker 1: They're getting basically home ice here plus the vague, So
- 1:07:12Speaker 1: the oddsmakers are telling you these teams are basically even,
- 1:07:15Speaker 1: But why would an eight eight and two team be
- 1:07:17Speaker 1: favored against a ten to five and four team, So
- 1:07:19Speaker 1: that looks odd. So the oddsbreakers are telling you something
- 1:07:22Speaker 1: there that conflicts with what the records look like. So
- 1:07:26Speaker 1: I'll probably lean to Washington, but I also don't want
- 1:07:28Speaker 1: to go up against this King's nine to one to
- 1:07:30Speaker 1: two road record. The Kings have been awesome. They're dude,
- 1:07:33Speaker 1: They're almost like the Rangers, and I haven't even noticed.
- 1:07:36Speaker 1: The Kings have been excellent on the road and they're
- 1:07:38Speaker 1: actually really bad at home pretty much. They only have
- 1:07:41Speaker 1: one win at home. The Kings are basically the Rangers
- 1:07:44Speaker 1: of the West. I didn't even notice because the Kings,
- 1:07:47Speaker 1: like I just keep thinking they're really good at home
- 1:07:48Speaker 1: because they were good at home last year. But this
- 1:07:51Speaker 1: year they've been amazing on the road and not good
- 1:07:53Speaker 1: at home. So something that keep in mind for Kings games.
- 1:07:58Speaker 1: So I don't really want to fade La Montreal at Columbus.
- 1:08:02Speaker 1: Montreal is coming off that big game against the Bruins.
- 1:08:05Speaker 1: It was a close game, they took the loss, but
- 1:08:07Speaker 1: that is still a pretty big rivalry game. They do
- 1:08:11Speaker 1: get to get out of town though, and go to Columbus.
- 1:08:13Speaker 1: But is this a difficult spot because it's just a
- 1:08:16Speaker 1: single road game, and they do get Washington and Toronto
- 1:08:19Speaker 1: coming up next, so you could argue those are bigger
- 1:08:22Speaker 1: games than Columbus, because Columbus really just doesn't attract a
- 1:08:25Speaker 1: whole lot of attention from these teams. So it almost
- 1:08:30Speaker 1: does look like a little bit of a sandwich spot
- 1:08:32Speaker 1: and kind of a spot where it's just weird, a
- 1:08:34Speaker 1: single game travel spot to Columbus. Montreal maybe a little
- 1:08:38Speaker 1: bit hung over after playing tough against the Bruins, although
- 1:08:41Speaker 1: Montreal did lose that game as a favorite too, so
- 1:08:43Speaker 1: you could argue it's also it could be a bounce
- 1:08:45Speaker 1: back spot, so difficult for me to read what's going
- 1:08:48Speaker 1: on in this game. Columbus did just lose. On Saturday.
- 1:08:51Speaker 1: The other winner that I gave it on the show
- 1:08:52Speaker 1: was the Rangers on the road. Of course, what else
- 1:08:55Speaker 1: is new? The Rangers got the job done in overtime
- 1:08:58Speaker 1: in a shootout. Columbus I thought was in a bad
- 1:09:01Speaker 1: spot because they had return home and they beat Edmonton
- 1:09:04Speaker 1: in their home return home spot, so I thought they
- 1:09:06Speaker 1: were gonna run out of gas, and I thought they
- 1:09:09Speaker 1: were also gonna letdown Spot and I thought Columbus might
- 1:09:12Speaker 1: put more weight into this Montreal game upcoming, which they
- 1:09:15Speaker 1: still might. I'm gonna lean to Columbus in this one.
- 1:09:18Speaker 1: And it looks like the money, the art, like the
- 1:09:21Speaker 1: market is bearing that out eighty nine percent of the tickets,
- 1:09:24Speaker 1: only eighty six percent of the cash on Montreal. So
- 1:09:27Speaker 1: Montreal is a public road underdog here. And you know,
- 1:09:29Speaker 1: I talk about how you want to fade teams that
- 1:09:32Speaker 1: have that type of market set up. When the public
- 1:09:34Speaker 1: likes an underdog like that and they're on the road,
- 1:09:36Speaker 1: you want to look to take the favorite. I mean
- 1:09:38Speaker 1: their a favorite for a reason. It does look a
- 1:09:40Speaker 1: little bit weird the Columbus would be a favorite against
- 1:09:43Speaker 1: this Montreal team. It's been pretty hot, Columbus has a
- 1:09:46Speaker 1: bit more of a mediocre record here. Uh, but yeah,
- 1:09:49Speaker 1: I would lean to Columbus in this one. Market Reid
- 1:09:51Speaker 1: seems to agree with that. Montreal has been fairly good
- 1:09:55Speaker 1: on the road though, So something to keep in mind there,
- 1:09:58Speaker 1: all right. And then yeah, Sab talking about am I
- 1:10:02Speaker 1: on Utah. Yes that is correct, dude, Now you're in
- 1:10:07Speaker 1: my mind. You know what I'm thinking. I have actually
- 1:10:09Speaker 1: not entered it into the system. Yet it's the whole No,
- 1:10:11Speaker 1: my mistake. Let me see, I forget what the price
- 1:10:14Speaker 1: was that I got on this. I think it was
- 1:10:17Speaker 1: about minus one fourteen. So yes, Utah is the play there,
- 1:10:21Speaker 1: Utah minus one fourteen on the money line. They're off
- 1:10:25Speaker 1: for minus one ten to minus one fifteen here against Anaheim.
- 1:10:27Speaker 1: Although I don't love how they look public right now,
- 1:10:30Speaker 1: I just don't know if that's really true. Sixty four
- 1:10:33Speaker 1: percent of takes fifty seven percent of the cash on
- 1:10:35Speaker 1: them right now. But as I talk about in in hockey,
- 1:10:39Speaker 1: these market percentages that pregame shows here can really really
- 1:10:42Speaker 1: change throughout the day. And this game is not until
- 1:10:44Speaker 1: ten pm Eastern, so we're gonna look to go with
- 1:10:49Speaker 1: Utah here. Oh whoops, I should have gone with the abbreviation. Man,
- 1:10:53Speaker 1: this isn't Utah the University of Utah. There you go,
- 1:10:57Speaker 1: Utah Uta, not Texas Ornland. But yes, I do like
- 1:11:02Speaker 1: the spot for Utah or I don't like the spot
- 1:11:04Speaker 1: for Anaheim. But first of all, I don't see how
- 1:11:07Speaker 1: the public is on Utah here, because if you look
- 1:11:09Speaker 1: at these teams records, why would the public want to
- 1:11:11Speaker 1: be on a ten to seven and one team that's
- 1:11:14Speaker 1: favoring on the road, Like, it doesn't make any sense,
- 1:11:17Speaker 1: Like why would the public want to do that when
- 1:11:19Speaker 1: Anaheim has been hot, even though I know they have
- 1:11:21Speaker 1: cooled off a little bit, but they're eleven six and
- 1:11:24Speaker 1: one overall, Like it looks very very odd. Pun intended
- 1:11:30Speaker 1: to see the odds telling you that Utah's a road
- 1:11:33Speaker 1: favorite here, So the ods Vegas are telling you Utah
- 1:11:36Speaker 1: is actually the better team. They've been decent on the road.
- 1:11:38Speaker 1: They're five six and zero on the road. I know
- 1:11:40Speaker 1: we're going up against Anaheim's really good five and one
- 1:11:43Speaker 1: home record, so something I usually don't like to do,
- 1:11:46Speaker 1: but we're gonna do it because of the spot. As
- 1:11:50Speaker 1: far as Utah is concerned, they've hit a rot They've
- 1:11:53Speaker 1: lost four of their last five games. They just lost
- 1:11:56Speaker 1: in overtime to New York to the Islanders. The Islanders
- 1:11:59Speaker 1: areun that really hot streak, that really hot stretch. I
- 1:12:01Speaker 1: thought that Utah was in a good spot in that
- 1:12:03Speaker 1: one and Islanders were not, and the Utah did not
- 1:12:06Speaker 1: get it done for us. But now Utah has had
- 1:12:08Speaker 1: a lot of rest, dude, and they get to leave
- 1:12:10Speaker 1: home and start a road trip. I think this is
- 1:12:12Speaker 1: a good spot for Utah because you've had multiple days off,
- 1:12:15Speaker 1: you can break that losing momentum that you got going on,
- 1:12:18Speaker 1: you can focus on hockey. You know they're gonna focus
- 1:12:21Speaker 1: on Anaheim because Anaheim has been hot this year to
- 1:12:23Speaker 1: start a road trip. Utah's gonna play San Jose tomorrow,
- 1:12:26Speaker 1: but you know which team is gonna get their attention
- 1:12:28Speaker 1: in this back to back here, it's gonna be Anaheim.
- 1:12:32Speaker 1: So I do expect Utah to show up in this
- 1:12:34Speaker 1: one and for Anaheim. I don't like the spot for
- 1:12:37Speaker 1: Anaheim is they're returning home from a road trip, only
- 1:12:40Speaker 1: a three game road trip, but it took them fairly
- 1:12:42Speaker 1: far travel wise, and it's been almost a week since
- 1:12:46Speaker 1: they've been home, so I do think they might fall
- 1:12:48Speaker 1: into that rut there. To me, I think the public
- 1:12:50Speaker 1: would have a tendency to look at this and think, well,
- 1:12:52Speaker 1: wait a minute, Anaheim just lost all their games on
- 1:12:55Speaker 1: the road trip, but of course they're gonna bounce back
- 1:12:56Speaker 1: now that they're at home, Like you think that the public,
- 1:12:59Speaker 1: the public has a ten to think that way, especially
- 1:13:01Speaker 1: when a team's been good at home, which is why
- 1:13:04Speaker 1: I kind of want to fade I mean, I do
- 1:13:06Speaker 1: want to fade Anaheim here, even though we don't see
- 1:13:09Speaker 1: that reflected in the market yet. But Anaheim did just
- 1:13:12Speaker 1: go to Colorado, then all the way to Detroit, then
- 1:13:15Speaker 1: back to Minnesota. I know that was an ugly loss
- 1:13:17Speaker 1: to finish the road trip getting shut out, but I
- 1:13:20Speaker 1: just don't think when teams are in road trip return spots,
- 1:13:22Speaker 1: I don't think they actually tend to bounce back. I
- 1:13:26Speaker 1: think they actually tend to fall into the distraction spot.
- 1:13:29Speaker 1: Utah hasn't been playing that well recently as well, so
- 1:13:32Speaker 1: I'm not sure that Anaheim's really gonna be able to
- 1:13:34Speaker 1: avoid that distraction spot. And they might even actually focus
- 1:13:38Speaker 1: on Boston coming up on Wednesday, because the Bruins have
- 1:13:41Speaker 1: actually been hot. Even though Utah did beat the Bruins
- 1:13:44Speaker 1: in Boston earlier this year, it was a high scoring,
- 1:13:47Speaker 1: fairly close game. So yeah, I do not like the
- 1:13:52Speaker 1: spot here for Utah, excuse me, for Anaheim, I do
- 1:13:55Speaker 1: not like it. And as far as Anaheim's home record,
- 1:13:59Speaker 1: they lost it home to Carolina, which Carolina we know
- 1:14:02Speaker 1: is a good team, but they have beaten some good
- 1:14:04Speaker 1: teams at home, so I'm not gonna take that away
- 1:14:06Speaker 1: from them Pittsburgh. I don't think it's very good. But
- 1:14:08Speaker 1: their other home wins are against Detroit, New Jersey, Florida
- 1:14:11Speaker 1: and Winnipeg. So yes, they have been good at home,
- 1:14:14Speaker 1: and they have been beating good teams at home. But
- 1:14:16Speaker 1: I just still think Anaheim is not what they look like.
- 1:14:20Speaker 1: I don't think they're as good as this like. I mean,
- 1:14:22Speaker 1: they're a team that was in the drags last year
- 1:14:24Speaker 1: in the cellar, and now all of a sudden, you
- 1:14:26Speaker 1: expect me to believe they're like this one of these
- 1:14:28Speaker 1: top teams in hockey. I don't think they are. I mean,
- 1:14:31Speaker 1: will they make the playoffs, Yeah, I think they probably will,
- 1:14:35Speaker 1: But I don't think that this like up rational on
- 1:14:38Speaker 1: team right now, and the Odsjekers are telling you that
- 1:14:40Speaker 1: they're not even as good as Utah. So we will
- 1:14:43Speaker 1: take Utah in that one. And now we'll go to
- 1:14:45Speaker 1: the NBA to finish this off. Here in Milwaukee Cleveland,
- 1:14:49Speaker 1: one of the biggest games, which is the only televised one.
- 1:14:52Speaker 1: You're gonna have to hit the streams here, man, this
- 1:14:54Speaker 1: one's on Peacock. Milwaukee did already beat or excuse me,
- 1:14:59Speaker 1: they lost the Cleveland in Cleveland, what am I saying
- 1:15:01Speaker 1: earlier this year? Only by five, so Milwaukee played pretty
- 1:15:04Speaker 1: well in that game. It does mean it's a little
- 1:15:07Speaker 1: bit of in season revenge from Milwaukee here going back
- 1:15:11Speaker 1: to that same place. But both teams are gonna show
- 1:15:14Speaker 1: up for this game. It's a big game, so I
- 1:15:15Speaker 1: don't expect either team to really be unfocused. Milwaukee is
- 1:15:19Speaker 1: playing a third game in four days, but at least
- 1:15:21Speaker 1: for them, they played the first two games at home.
- 1:15:24Speaker 1: They did lose badly to the Lakers in the last game,
- 1:15:26Speaker 1: so I do think in a way maybe they're gonna
- 1:15:28Speaker 1: bounce back from that because that was just ugly. Three
- 1:15:31Speaker 1: games in four days is not easy, But at least
- 1:15:33Speaker 1: the travel is only from Milwaukee to Cleveland, which isn't
- 1:15:37Speaker 1: too bad. As far as Cleveland is concerned. They have
- 1:15:41Speaker 1: even less travel and more rest as they're staying at
- 1:15:44Speaker 1: home coming off a win over Memphis. It was really lackluster,
- 1:15:48Speaker 1: only beating them by eight. So the spot to me,
- 1:15:51Speaker 1: does look better for Cleveland. And when you got two
- 1:15:53Speaker 1: teams that are probably both gonna be focused, I'm kind
- 1:15:57Speaker 1: of gonna attend towards I'm gonna lean towards the better team,
- 1:16:00Speaker 1: and that's Cleveland. Cleveland up from six and a half
- 1:16:03Speaker 1: to seven and a half here, eighty three percent of
- 1:16:05Speaker 1: the tickets, ninety five percent of the cash on Cleveland. Yeah,
- 1:16:07Speaker 1: I'll lean to Cleveland in that game. I do think
- 1:16:10Speaker 1: the spot's a little bit better for them, and both
- 1:16:11Speaker 1: teams showing up. You can lean towards Cleveland here. Cleveland
- 1:16:16Speaker 1: maybe not a whole lot of line value though, because
- 1:16:18Speaker 1: Cleveland was six and a half in that other game
- 1:16:20Speaker 1: against Milwaukee, they didn't cover the number of it. Now
- 1:16:23Speaker 1: they're through the key number of seven and they're at
- 1:16:27Speaker 1: seven and a half here, So I don't really want
- 1:16:29Speaker 1: to give it out as a play or anything, but
- 1:16:30Speaker 1: it's a lean for me to Cleveland. Indiana at Detroit, Indiana, Man,
- 1:16:35Speaker 1: have they fallen off man this year? Just injuries have
- 1:16:40Speaker 1: really really hurt them this year, pun intended, and they're
- 1:16:43Speaker 1: still dealing with some of those injuries right now. Nemhart
- 1:16:46Speaker 1: Mathren got to see if they're in or out of
- 1:16:48Speaker 1: the line up here. Indiana. They should be in a
- 1:16:51Speaker 1: bit of a positive spot here because they did return
- 1:16:53Speaker 1: home from a road trip on Saturday, which, as I
- 1:16:56Speaker 1: always point out, as a bad spot, and they were
- 1:16:58Speaker 1: out in elevation out on the Pasie the coast, very
- 1:17:01Speaker 1: very difficult road trip and road trip return spot there.
- 1:17:04Speaker 1: For Indiana, they couldn't get it done. They lost by
- 1:17:07Speaker 1: double digits to Toronto. They're not staying at home, but
- 1:17:11Speaker 1: now after that loss, they get to go back out
- 1:17:13Speaker 1: on the road. I actually think it might be more
- 1:17:14Speaker 1: of a positive for Indiana to just get out of there,
- 1:17:17Speaker 1: refocus on basketball. Once you've been at home, you've done
- 1:17:21Speaker 1: what you need to do at home, get back out
- 1:17:23Speaker 1: on the road, and then you shouldn't be as distracted here.
- 1:17:26Speaker 1: For Detroit, they're coming off a nice win, a couple
- 1:17:28Speaker 1: of wins in a row for Chicago and Philadelphia. I
- 1:17:30Speaker 1: mean they've won a bunch of games in a row,
- 1:17:32Speaker 1: obviously eight wins in a row, but the last couple
- 1:17:34Speaker 1: wins were pretty big against Chicago and Philadelphia. And now
- 1:17:37Speaker 1: they have multiple days off and they're just staying at
- 1:17:39Speaker 1: home kind of basking in it, which I actually think
- 1:17:42Speaker 1: is bad. I think that that can make you overconfident,
- 1:17:45Speaker 1: and it might bust your momentum to have multiple days
- 1:17:49Speaker 1: off while staying at home, and they might not fully
- 1:17:52Speaker 1: focus on Indiana. I mean, they do have to play
- 1:17:53Speaker 1: Atlanta tomorrow, and Atlanta's playing fairly well even without Trey Young.
- 1:17:57Speaker 1: So I would take the points with Indiana, and if
- 1:18:00Speaker 1: I was gonna play it, I won't do it. But
- 1:18:03Speaker 1: the money seems to agree the Pistons. I think they're
- 1:18:05Speaker 1: favored by too much as well. They'roughout from eight and
- 1:18:08Speaker 1: a half to ten here eighty percent of the tickets,
- 1:18:10Speaker 1: only sixty two percent of the cash. Who would have
- 1:18:13Speaker 1: thought that the Pistons being the Pistons whisperer would mean
- 1:18:18Speaker 1: I'm starting to lean towards fading the Pistons as a
- 1:18:21Speaker 1: huge favorite. Now, the Pistons were always like a dog man.
- 1:18:24Speaker 1: They were always my dog, an underdog. Did give up
- 1:18:27Speaker 1: a win with the Pistons as a favorite not that
- 1:18:30Speaker 1: long ago, though, against Chicago. So but in this situation,
- 1:18:35Speaker 1: I would take the points of the Pacers. But I
- 1:18:38Speaker 1: do have some concerns about it. Clippers at Philadelphia. I
- 1:18:42Speaker 1: think the Clippers are in a pretty difficult spot here.
- 1:18:45Speaker 1: I mean, they're on a back to back and they're
- 1:18:46Speaker 1: playing a third game in four days, all in different cities.
- 1:18:49Speaker 1: They went to double overtime in Dallas on Friday, and
- 1:18:52Speaker 1: then they were in Boston and they took Boston to
- 1:18:55Speaker 1: the wire on Sunday, lost the game. Now they're going
- 1:18:58Speaker 1: to Philadelphia yesterday and now they're going to Philadelphia. It's
- 1:19:02Speaker 1: not a good spot for la Man. Third game of
- 1:19:05Speaker 1: four days, fourth game in six days actually, and the
- 1:19:08Speaker 1: first one of those was them being at home on
- 1:19:10Speaker 1: Wednesday against Denver. It's a pretty lousy spot for the Clippers. Man.
- 1:19:15Speaker 1: I like Philadelphia in this game. I just have sort
- 1:19:18Speaker 1: of an issue with how the injury situation sets up here.
- 1:19:22Speaker 1: Philadelphia had a single game road trip to Detroit. They
- 1:19:25Speaker 1: couldn't get it done. They lost to Detroit. Now Philadelphia's
- 1:19:28Speaker 1: back home and they've had multiple days off, which I
- 1:19:31Speaker 1: think can kind of helped them here and break that momentum.
- 1:19:34Speaker 1: So they are the much much more arrested team. Although
- 1:19:36Speaker 1: you know that's going to factor into the line here.
- 1:19:39Speaker 1: Joel Embiid is out. He's been out for a bit now,
- 1:19:41Speaker 1: I mean, what else is new, So that's not really
- 1:19:43Speaker 1: going to influence, like, you know, game to game because
- 1:19:46Speaker 1: he's been out for a while. Same with Kawhi Leonard.
- 1:19:50Speaker 1: He's missed a bunch of games for the Clippers. So
- 1:19:51Speaker 1: both teams have one of their big men who's been
- 1:19:54Speaker 1: missing for a long time. My problem with the Philadelphia
- 1:19:57Speaker 1: side here is Paul George might be coming back. This
- 1:20:00Speaker 1: might be his season debut, and while that's good in
- 1:20:04Speaker 1: the long run for the Sixers, but he is kind
- 1:20:06Speaker 1: of an aging veteran here now. He's questionable right now.
- 1:20:11Speaker 1: I would watch the injury report because if he does
- 1:20:13Speaker 1: come back, I actually don't like Philadelphia as much because
- 1:20:16Speaker 1: you're gonna have to lay more points and he's gonna
- 1:20:18Speaker 1: be the key guy. I when you have the key
- 1:20:19Speaker 1: guy coming back like that, he's key with embid out
- 1:20:23Speaker 1: for sure, that can like disrupt the momentum because it's
- 1:20:26Speaker 1: like what Roles George's gonna fit, You know what Roles
- 1:20:29Speaker 1: max A gonna play something that It could be a
- 1:20:31Speaker 1: little bit disruptive to have George come back. Man. So
- 1:20:34Speaker 1: that's the one thing I don't like about the spot
- 1:20:36Speaker 1: for Philadelphia. Otherwise I do like it quite a bit.
- 1:20:39Speaker 1: This one almost made my card. I just am hesitant
- 1:20:42Speaker 1: because of the Paul George thing. So I'll stay off
- 1:20:45Speaker 1: of it, but I lean towards laying it with Philadelphia here.
- 1:20:48Speaker 1: The spot is really really bad for other Clippers. The
- 1:20:52Speaker 1: money seems to agree with me. It's up from four
- 1:20:54Speaker 1: and a half to five and a half now. Seems
- 1:20:56Speaker 1: like maybe that's indicating George is coming back to and
- 1:20:58Speaker 1: you're losing some value here. If you want to get
- 1:21:01Speaker 1: the Sixers, if you want to play the Sixers, you
- 1:21:03Speaker 1: gotta get it at Bulow seven at the very least.
- 1:21:05Speaker 1: Though eighty three percent of tickets nine to one percent
- 1:21:08Speaker 1: of the cash on the Sixers seven of course being
- 1:21:11Speaker 1: key again because where a team stops intentionally fouling, all right,
- 1:21:18Speaker 1: they could use a shakeup. Yeah, But I just think
- 1:21:21Speaker 1: that in that first game, like they just don't understand
- 1:21:24Speaker 1: their roles. So a lot of times the chemistry is
- 1:21:26Speaker 1: just not there. Like I've been waiting all season to
- 1:21:28Speaker 1: fade Philadelphia when Paul George comes back to because I'm like,
- 1:21:31Speaker 1: that's gonna be a huge injured player reverse injured player spot.
- 1:21:35Speaker 1: But it just so happens to come in a spot
- 1:21:37Speaker 1: where the Clippers are in a horrible rest spot. So
- 1:21:40Speaker 1: I just can't do it. Man. The Knicks are at Miami.
- 1:21:44Speaker 1: This is a zigzag spot here. I almost want to
- 1:21:47Speaker 1: get involved in this one too. The Knicks just beat
- 1:21:49Speaker 1: Miami at home in a very high scoring game by eight.
- 1:21:52Speaker 1: That was on Friday. Now they're playing each other again,
- 1:21:55Speaker 1: but the Knicks are starting a road trip, and I
- 1:21:57Speaker 1: usually talk about how starting a road trip is a focus,
- 1:22:00Speaker 1: but in this case, I'm not sure, because you know,
- 1:22:03Speaker 1: Miami is gonna want to look to get their revenge
- 1:22:06Speaker 1: against the Knicks here after that loss. And by the way,
- 1:22:08Speaker 1: both of these teams are these teams are playing a
- 1:22:12Speaker 1: lot of backups here right now. This isn't this is
- 1:22:14Speaker 1: an injury This is like the Injury Bowl here, because
- 1:22:18Speaker 1: something I didn't even know is Jalen Brunson actually got
- 1:22:21Speaker 1: hurt against Orlando and he didn't play in the game
- 1:22:24Speaker 1: against Miami. So the Knicks are actually in an injured
- 1:22:26Speaker 1: player spot in that game, which I think actually helped
- 1:22:29Speaker 1: them because when your star player like Brunson goes down,
- 1:22:32Speaker 1: you'll step it up for that game without a man.
- 1:22:35Speaker 1: So Brunson was out. But now this is the second
- 1:22:37Speaker 1: game without Brunson, So yes, that would put me on
- 1:22:39Speaker 1: Miami because I think when the team plays well the
- 1:22:43Speaker 1: first game without the star, they tend to take a
- 1:22:45Speaker 1: step back in the next game, and it's a zigzag
- 1:22:48Speaker 1: for Miami, of course, So that means that because Miami
- 1:22:52Speaker 1: lost in that game at the Knicks, Miami's gonna be
- 1:22:54Speaker 1: the team that has the adjustments to make The problem
- 1:22:58Speaker 1: I have with it is, well, Miami is still injured.
- 1:23:01Speaker 1: That's not really a concern for me here, because that's
- 1:23:03Speaker 1: been the case for a while. Out of Bio and
- 1:23:06Speaker 1: Hero are both still out, but that's been the case
- 1:23:08Speaker 1: for a while. The problem I have is this is
- 1:23:11Speaker 1: also an injured player spot for the Knicks because ann
- 1:23:14Speaker 1: and Nobe got hurt in the game against Miami and
- 1:23:17Speaker 1: he's gonna be out for a while. So now it's
- 1:23:19Speaker 1: like the Knicks are in an injured player theory spot
- 1:23:22Speaker 1: two days in a row now almost, so that this
- 1:23:24Speaker 1: one also comes into play, also comes into a game
- 1:23:28Speaker 1: where it's the where it's the post injured player, there
- 1:23:31Speaker 1: is spot with the other injured players. So I just
- 1:23:34Speaker 1: don't know what I want to do with this game.
- 1:23:36Speaker 1: This game just there's a little bit too much going
- 1:23:39Speaker 1: on for my liking here. I'm not gonna do it.
- 1:23:44Speaker 1: But yeah, the Knicks are down both Brunson and Anonobi now,
- 1:23:47Speaker 1: but Miami is also down out of Bio and Hero.
- 1:23:51Speaker 1: I'm not gonna do it. I lean to the Heat.
- 1:23:54Speaker 1: They're out from one to one and a half. Here
- 1:23:55Speaker 1: the money agrees with it, But the Knicks are a
- 1:23:57Speaker 1: six and a half wayt home favorite, and now you
- 1:24:00Speaker 1: take you got to take Anonobe out because Brunson was
- 1:24:03Speaker 1: already out. So the Knicks are a six and a
- 1:24:04Speaker 1: half point favorite. So if you give NBA, you don't
- 1:24:07Speaker 1: get much for home court. Okay, So flipping the home venue,
- 1:24:11Speaker 1: the line should probably be with Anonobi's still there for
- 1:24:15Speaker 1: the Knicks, the line would probably be about three. Knicks
- 1:24:19Speaker 1: minus three would be my opinion, maybe like two two
- 1:24:22Speaker 1: and a half. Now because Antonoby's out, you're moving that
- 1:24:25Speaker 1: line to the Heat minus one and a half. So
- 1:24:27Speaker 1: that's what I'm concerned about. Man. The injured player situation
- 1:24:31Speaker 1: for the Knicks, I think has caused the line to
- 1:24:33Speaker 1: overreact a little bit on the Heat, although I will
- 1:24:35Speaker 1: say it is still in that range where you're just
- 1:24:38Speaker 1: picking the winner. So I do agree with the Heat
- 1:24:41Speaker 1: still seventy four percent of the cash on them. I
- 1:24:44Speaker 1: might money line it as well instead of laying the
- 1:24:46Speaker 1: one and a half, and then maybe you'll find a
- 1:24:48Speaker 1: decent money line price and then you don't have to
- 1:24:50Speaker 1: worry about the points sixty five percent of the tickets
- 1:24:53Speaker 1: on the Knicks. The Knicks are public, so it's like
- 1:24:55Speaker 1: the public doesn't even realize how injured the Knicks are
- 1:24:57Speaker 1: or something. I don't know you're on Miami. Yeah, I
- 1:25:02Speaker 1: agree with it. This one was close to being a play.
- 1:25:04Speaker 1: I like the Sixers better then I like this one Miami,
- 1:25:07Speaker 1: and then I have one play that I like better
- 1:25:09Speaker 1: than both. That is my one NBA play of the day.
- 1:25:14Speaker 1: What's the other injury? I don't even know at this point,
- 1:25:17Speaker 1: but Brunton, it in and over are huge injuries. All right,
- 1:25:23Speaker 1: Charlotte at Toronto, fuck it, that's my play. Let's just
- 1:25:27Speaker 1: do it now. Charlotte plus the eight and a half
- 1:25:30Speaker 1: here is gonna be the play here against Toronto. I
- 1:25:33Speaker 1: don't like how this sets up for Toronto. They're very public,
- 1:25:36Speaker 1: by the way, eighty nine percent of the tickets, ninety
- 1:25:38Speaker 1: five percent of the cash for now. But I think
- 1:25:41Speaker 1: you're gonna see the money start coming in on the
- 1:25:42Speaker 1: Hornets as we go through the day. Raptors are up
- 1:25:45Speaker 1: from seven to eight and a half here. But I
- 1:25:48Speaker 1: don't agree with it. As far as Charlotte is concerned,
- 1:25:51Speaker 1: I should be worrying my Charlotte ball shirt here. What's
- 1:25:55Speaker 1: his name? I almost said Monte Ball. I'm like, no,
- 1:25:58Speaker 1: that's the running back. Whichever ball they have, Lonzo ball,
- 1:26:02Speaker 1: LaMelo ball, whichever one it is. I don't know. But
- 1:26:05Speaker 1: where's Jersey tomorrow? If they get this done for us here,
- 1:26:07Speaker 1: if they cover Charlotte. Yeah, they're coming off a game
- 1:26:12Speaker 1: against Oklahoma City. I know they're playing a third game
- 1:26:14Speaker 1: in four days in different cities, in a fourth game
- 1:26:17Speaker 1: in six days. I know that's not that easy. And
- 1:26:19Speaker 1: they were zigzagging. They played at home, then they went
- 1:26:21Speaker 1: to Milwaukee on a back to back, they had to
- 1:26:23Speaker 1: go to Oklahoma City. But now they at least have
- 1:26:25Speaker 1: one day off and they're technically starting a road trip here.
- 1:26:29Speaker 1: And they lost by a huge margin against Oklahoma City.
- 1:26:32Speaker 1: The game wasn't close, so the game is pretty much
- 1:26:34Speaker 1: over in the final stretch there. So I don't think
- 1:26:38Speaker 1: Charlotte was putting you know, it wasn't a game where
- 1:26:41Speaker 1: they went like totally to the max against Okay. See,
- 1:26:44Speaker 1: now they're going out on the road, starting a road trip,
- 1:26:47Speaker 1: trying to break a lost street here where they've lost
- 1:26:49Speaker 1: five of their last six or whatever that is. I
- 1:26:52Speaker 1: think it is a positive spot for Charlotte. But I
- 1:26:55Speaker 1: think more of the crux of this is that this
- 1:26:57Speaker 1: is a negative spot for Toronto. Toronto's on a night
- 1:27:00Speaker 1: hot streak and they just have been on the road
- 1:27:02Speaker 1: since Friday the seventh, So Toronto's been on the road
- 1:27:05Speaker 1: for a long time, going down to Atlanta. They've played Atlanta, Philadelphia, Brooklyn, Cleveland, Indiana.
- 1:27:11Speaker 1: I know they didn't go to the Pacific Coast or
- 1:27:13Speaker 1: anything like that, but still, when you're away for that
- 1:27:16Speaker 1: long of a period of time, now you're gonna go
- 1:27:18Speaker 1: through customs, come back to Canada. You gotta get through
- 1:27:21Speaker 1: all that. You got stuff to do at home. You
- 1:27:23Speaker 1: got this ugly Charlotte team here as your opponent, and
- 1:27:26Speaker 1: then you have to go to Philadelphia on Wednesday, which
- 1:27:28Speaker 1: is a much bigger opponent, bigger game. I don't like it.
- 1:27:32Speaker 1: I think Toronto will fall into that distraction spot, maybe
- 1:27:35Speaker 1: get caught here in this game. I like taking a
- 1:27:38Speaker 1: lot of points in a spot like this. They might
- 1:27:40Speaker 1: look ahead to Philadelphia as well. So yeah, we'll do it.
- 1:27:43Speaker 1: We'll take the Hornets plus the points. I know last
- 1:27:46Speaker 1: time I gave up the Hornets in a game where
- 1:27:48Speaker 1: they were turning over from a road trip. It didn't
- 1:27:50Speaker 1: work out, but hope ex usually hopefully it does here.
- 1:27:55Speaker 1: Dallas at Minnesota. Dallas, I mean, man, they're off to
- 1:27:59Speaker 1: a bad start. They've had a lot of injuries to
- 1:28:01Speaker 1: their big men. Kyrie is still out, they don't have
- 1:28:03Speaker 1: a point guard. What are we gonna do with this team?
- 1:28:06Speaker 1: They're playing two overtime games in a row. They've played
- 1:28:10Speaker 1: two overtime games in a row, even though they were
- 1:28:13Speaker 1: both at home. They're playing a third game in four
- 1:28:15Speaker 1: days now, fourth game in six days. And those last
- 1:28:17Speaker 1: two games, including yesterday, were both overtime, double overtime against
- 1:28:22Speaker 1: the Clippers, which they lost, and they won an overtime
- 1:28:24Speaker 1: last night against Portland. Now they got to travel to Minnesota. Yeah,
- 1:28:29Speaker 1: it's a bad trial. It's a bad rest spot for Dallas.
- 1:28:32Speaker 1: I mean, they're gonna be very, very tired, I assume
- 1:28:34Speaker 1: coming into this game. So yeah, I don't like the
- 1:28:38Speaker 1: spot for Dallas, even though you gotta think, well, you know,
- 1:28:41Speaker 1: if they can, they're gonna still focus on Minnesota because
- 1:28:43Speaker 1: it is a big deal and Dallas did just gonna
- 1:28:46Speaker 1: win to break their lost streak at least for Minnesota.
- 1:28:51Speaker 1: They're staying at home. But they're playing a third game
- 1:28:53Speaker 1: in four days as well. And they did just lose
- 1:28:55Speaker 1: to Denver, big game for them, and that broke their
- 1:28:58Speaker 1: lost streak or excuse me, that broke their win streak,
- 1:29:00Speaker 1: excuse me, So that could hurt their momentum a little bit,
- 1:29:03Speaker 1: disrupt their momentum for Minnesota. That was a big game
- 1:29:06Speaker 1: against Denver as well. They've not lost twice to Denver.
- 1:29:10Speaker 1: Couldn't get it done there. So I don't love the
- 1:29:12Speaker 1: spot from Minnesota here either. And I also don't really
- 1:29:15Speaker 1: want to lay fourteen points with the team that you
- 1:29:17Speaker 1: know is the public side here, so I can't do
- 1:29:22Speaker 1: I can't lay it with Minnesota here throughout from thirteen
- 1:29:24Speaker 1: and a half to fourteen, sixty eight percent of the tickets,
- 1:29:27Speaker 1: only sixty one percent of the cash. So the market
- 1:29:29Speaker 1: read looks like it's leaning towards taking the points of
- 1:29:32Speaker 1: the MAVs. I think if that's the case, it's more
- 1:29:36Speaker 1: of just a numbers play there and not really looking
- 1:29:39Speaker 1: at the situation, which the situation is a little bit
- 1:29:42Speaker 1: less bad for the Tea Wolves, I think. But yeah,
- 1:29:46Speaker 1: I mean fourteen I think is also too many points.
- 1:29:48Speaker 1: There's no way I want to get involved in that.
- 1:29:50Speaker 1: And then speaking of too many points, Okase, I don't
- 1:29:55Speaker 1: even know if I've ever seen a road favorite in
- 1:29:57Speaker 1: the NBA be favored by this many points. O going
- 1:30:00Speaker 1: to New Orleans, Okay, see, is just still on a
- 1:30:02Speaker 1: run here. They got that win on Saturday against Charlotte.
- 1:30:06Speaker 1: Don't think it's really a particularly bad spot for Oklahoma
- 1:30:08Speaker 1: City here, although it's possible they just go in and
- 1:30:11Speaker 1: overlook New Orleans. I mean New Orleans has lost five
- 1:30:13Speaker 1: games in a row. They're on a back to back,
- 1:30:16Speaker 1: which is not great. In three games in four days,
- 1:30:18Speaker 1: four games and six days, although every game has been
- 1:30:21Speaker 1: at home, so at least they're not traveling, although they
- 1:30:24Speaker 1: did still play yesterday, which is not great. Zion Williamson
- 1:30:29Speaker 1: is a game time decisions. That's something you gotta look at.
- 1:30:32Speaker 1: If he comes back, it will be a reversed injured
- 1:30:35Speaker 1: player spot for the Pelicans, So that might give you
- 1:30:38Speaker 1: less value on the Pelicans, although I mean they're not
- 1:30:42Speaker 1: gonna overlook Oklahoma City. I mean, even if Zion comes back,
- 1:30:45Speaker 1: you're not gonna get a team that's like, oh, we
- 1:30:47Speaker 1: can like ease up a little bit because our best
- 1:30:49Speaker 1: player is back. I don't think so. I mean, this
- 1:30:51Speaker 1: is a two and eleven team, it's lost five games
- 1:30:53Speaker 1: in a row, and they're playing Oklahoma City here. I mean,
- 1:30:56Speaker 1: I think they're gonna try to focus on this game
- 1:30:58Speaker 1: if they can. I don't know what I would even
- 1:31:02Speaker 1: want to do with this. The Thunder up from seventeen
- 1:31:04Speaker 1: to seventeen and a half on the road, ridiculously high number.
- 1:31:08Speaker 1: I mean, there's no way I would want to lay that.
- 1:31:10Speaker 1: As dominant as the Thunder are, ninety percent of tickets,
- 1:31:13Speaker 1: ninety three percent of the cash on them, I mean
- 1:31:16Speaker 1: they were a public side. I don't put too much
- 1:31:18Speaker 1: into that cash disparity right there. Two percent with a
- 1:31:21Speaker 1: ridiculously public team right now, oh man, I mean I
- 1:31:27Speaker 1: would probably I would lean to taking the points if
- 1:31:31Speaker 1: you really forced me to give out an opinion on
- 1:31:33Speaker 1: that one. But I hate it. I hate that game.
- 1:31:36Speaker 1: And then finishing the board, we have a Chicago and
- 1:31:39Speaker 1: Denver Nuggets. Chicago at Denver. Denver's off to a really
- 1:31:42Speaker 1: nice start ten and two. Chicago was five and o
- 1:31:45Speaker 1: to start the year, and now they've crashed back down
- 1:31:47Speaker 1: to earth six and six. Chicago, I mean, I still
- 1:31:51Speaker 1: think they're an improving team. I mean, they're a mediocre team.
- 1:31:53Speaker 1: This latest stretch they've been on was pretty difficult, man.
- 1:31:56Speaker 1: But now they're at an elevation back to back, which
- 1:31:59Speaker 1: I I really don't like. Even though they had a
- 1:32:01Speaker 1: lot of time off prior to last night, I gave
- 1:32:03Speaker 1: out Utah as a play last night. I wasn't buying
- 1:32:05Speaker 1: into the extra rest for Chicago there because I thought
- 1:32:09Speaker 1: they might look ahead to Denver here and they were
- 1:32:11Speaker 1: coming up that big game against Detroit. Chicago went to
- 1:32:15Speaker 1: double overtime in Utah last night, still lost, and now
- 1:32:18Speaker 1: they have to turn around and play Denver. The back
- 1:32:21Speaker 1: to back elevation games very very difficult to do that,
- 1:32:25Speaker 1: especially when you play two extra periods of basketball last night.
- 1:32:29Speaker 1: That's not good. Even though yeah, ideally did want to
- 1:32:32Speaker 1: try to focus on Denver because they're really good. But man,
- 1:32:35Speaker 1: it is a bad spot for Chicago. For Denver, they're
- 1:32:39Speaker 1: kind of in a bad spot too. Though. They were
- 1:32:40Speaker 1: returning over from a road trip they've been on since Tuesday.
- 1:32:43Speaker 1: They went out to the Pacific Coast. They finished the
- 1:32:46Speaker 1: road trip up in Minnesota and they got a nice
- 1:32:48Speaker 1: win against Minnesota, pretty big win. Minnesota is still a
- 1:32:51Speaker 1: good team, although I did point out how Minnesota has
- 1:32:53Speaker 1: been very bad against good teams this year. Minnesota has
- 1:32:56Speaker 1: been good against bad teams, which true Dallas is a
- 1:33:01Speaker 1: bad team, so there is that, but Minnesota has been
- 1:33:04Speaker 1: bad stepping up in glass this year. So whatever, But
- 1:33:07Speaker 1: that's still a big win for Denver. They're still returning
- 1:33:09Speaker 1: home here. I'm not gonna say they're gonna overlook Chicago,
- 1:33:12Speaker 1: but they only have a couple of days to get
- 1:33:14Speaker 1: whatever they have to do at home done and that
- 1:33:18Speaker 1: then they go back out on the road. So these
- 1:33:20Speaker 1: single game home stands are tricky where I really don't
- 1:33:23Speaker 1: like to look at the home team in those games.
- 1:33:26Speaker 1: The Nuggets are getting the money, but they're all the
- 1:33:27Speaker 1: way up from ten and a half to fourteen and
- 1:33:29Speaker 1: a half now, so I don't know if there's like
- 1:33:30Speaker 1: an injury to be aware of, because why did the
- 1:33:33Speaker 1: line move that significantly. It doesn't really look like and
- 1:33:37Speaker 1: I Jokic's day to day, but he hasn't missed a game.
- 1:33:41Speaker 1: I don't think during this recent run. It looks like
- 1:33:44Speaker 1: he's probably gonna play because the line's up to fourteen
- 1:33:46Speaker 1: and a half. He played in their last game two
- 1:33:50Speaker 1: seventy per tickets eighty seven percent of the cash on Denver.
- 1:33:54Speaker 1: So the money looks like it's coming in on Denver.
- 1:33:56Speaker 1: I mean, I mean, I guess if you forced my hand,
- 1:34:01Speaker 1: I guess I would lay it with Denver. But I
- 1:34:03Speaker 1: really don't want to get involved in that. Those are
- 1:34:06Speaker 1: my thoughts on that game. So there you go with that.
- 1:34:10Speaker 1: Oh yeah, you said you like the under in this game. Yeah,
- 1:34:13Speaker 1: I mean the money looks like it has come in
- 1:34:15Speaker 1: on that. I mean the number. You've lost some value
- 1:34:18Speaker 1: on that. The total was really high at two forty five.
- 1:34:21Speaker 1: It sounded two thirty nine. The Bulls do play at
- 1:34:23Speaker 1: a fast pace of the Nuggets, I think maybe less
- 1:34:27Speaker 1: so though sixty two percent take a sixty percent of
- 1:34:30Speaker 1: the catch on the over money doesn't think it's indicating
- 1:34:32Speaker 1: on the under. But I mean, if you're doing it,
- 1:34:35Speaker 1: I wouldn't you know, I wouldn't have waited probably, or
- 1:34:38Speaker 1: I wouldn't wait, I guess, is what I would say,
- 1:34:40Speaker 1: because you're definitely losing some value on that number there.
- 1:34:42Speaker 1: It's already crashed six points, which hopefully that doesn't come
- 1:34:46Speaker 1: into play, all right, And then we got the NFL
- 1:34:49Speaker 1: Before we get out of here, which Oh I closed
- 1:34:51Speaker 1: my ESPN here. Hang on, I'm going to reopen it. Oh,
- 1:34:55Speaker 1: that's Ken Pom up here. It is all right, so
- 1:35:00Speaker 1: NFL before we get out here, I do have a
- 1:35:01Speaker 1: play here in the NFL. I don't think we're gonna
- 1:35:05Speaker 1: get the three on this on the Cowboys, but I
- 1:35:07Speaker 1: like the Cowboys here. I talked about it on my
- 1:35:09Speaker 1: NFL show the other day. I like how this sets up.
- 1:35:12Speaker 1: We will have a play on the Dallas Cowboys here
- 1:35:15Speaker 1: minus the three and a half. I guess we have
- 1:35:17Speaker 1: to give it out at that if you want to.
- 1:35:19Speaker 1: I know, three is key, so I don't love that.
- 1:35:21Speaker 1: I'd rather lay the three. But if you want to
- 1:35:23Speaker 1: lay a money line, you could do that too, but
- 1:35:25Speaker 1: it's a pretty expensive money line. If you want a
- 1:35:27Speaker 1: money line, parlay it. I mean, I'm not gonna stop
- 1:35:29Speaker 1: you from doing that either. I like how this sets
- 1:35:32Speaker 1: up for Dallas. Dude, Dallas is coming out of a bye.
- 1:35:36Speaker 1: So first of all, I'm gonna start by looking towards
- 1:35:38Speaker 1: that team if that's the case, because they went to
- 1:35:41Speaker 1: the buying a bad note. So when a team goes
- 1:35:42Speaker 1: into the buying a bad note, and it was a
- 1:35:45Speaker 1: bad note, they lost forty four to twenty four in
- 1:35:47Speaker 1: high elevation in Denver, and then they turned around and
- 1:35:49Speaker 1: they played on Monday and lost to Arizona on a
- 1:35:53Speaker 1: Monday night game that was highly publicized although nobody could
- 1:35:56Speaker 1: watch it thanks Disney, although I could because I still
- 1:35:59Speaker 1: have cable. I watched some of that game. That was
- 1:36:02Speaker 1: an ugly game for Dallas. They only put up seventeen
- 1:36:05Speaker 1: points as well. So the public is still going to
- 1:36:08Speaker 1: be on Dallas year, but it's more of the fact
- 1:36:10Speaker 1: that they just don't want anything to do with the Raiders.
- 1:36:12Speaker 1: But in this case, I just don't think that they're wrong.
- 1:36:14Speaker 1: I think you're gonna see better offense out of Dallas
- 1:36:17Speaker 1: this time. In Dallas. The one really good thing about
- 1:36:19Speaker 1: Dallas is their offense. Their offense is very good. Dak
- 1:36:22Speaker 1: Prescott's been really good this year. They can't really run
- 1:36:25Speaker 1: the football that well. They mostly throw it, but luckily
- 1:36:29Speaker 1: for them, Vegas has a better rushing defense than pass defense.
- 1:36:33Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure, so I don't think Vegas is really
- 1:36:36Speaker 1: well equipped to slow down this Dallas passing attack. Denver,
- 1:36:41Speaker 1: of course, is so the fact that Dallas put up
- 1:36:43Speaker 1: twenty four at Denver that's not really that bad. And
- 1:36:46Speaker 1: then the last game was bad. Dallas only putting up
- 1:36:49Speaker 1: seventeen against Arizona. That's ugly. But if you look at
- 1:36:53Speaker 1: this game, Dallas had a bunch of turnovers. Dallas actually
- 1:36:57Speaker 1: only got out gained by seven yards, but they lost
- 1:36:59Speaker 1: the turn over about a three to nothing. So that's
- 1:37:02Speaker 1: a huge reason why they lost the game. So that's
- 1:37:04Speaker 1: something they can work on in the by just clean
- 1:37:06Speaker 1: up those mistakes. Dallas is definitely not quite as bad
- 1:37:09Speaker 1: as they looked in that game against Arizona. I think
- 1:37:12Speaker 1: for them, it might actually be good to go on
- 1:37:13Speaker 1: the road because you don't have to hear like the
- 1:37:16Speaker 1: media complaining about how bad you are right now. Just
- 1:37:18Speaker 1: go out on the road. Play Vegas. You know Vegas,
- 1:37:21Speaker 1: by the way, their home advantage is terrible because Vegas
- 1:37:25Speaker 1: is like a tourist spot, you know what I mean,
- 1:37:27Speaker 1: A lot of people actually travel to Vegas just oh,
- 1:37:30Speaker 1: let's have a Vegas you know weekend or whatever, go
- 1:37:33Speaker 1: to our team's football game. You know, like these fans
- 1:37:36Speaker 1: of the road team will actually go and make a
- 1:37:38Speaker 1: weekend out of it in Vegas. So Vegas has a
- 1:37:40Speaker 1: horrific home advantage. You like almost don't even have one
- 1:37:43Speaker 1: because these teams, these road teams, their crowd shows up.
- 1:37:47Speaker 1: And you know, Dallas has a huge contingency all over
- 1:37:51Speaker 1: the place, and especially Dallas isn't that far from Vegas either,
- 1:37:55Speaker 1: so all across the Southwest. You know, there's a huge
- 1:37:57Speaker 1: Dallas fan base. I mean, they're America's they have one
- 1:38:00Speaker 1: of the biggest fan bases in the country. So you
- 1:38:03Speaker 1: know Dallas is gonna have a ton of fans at
- 1:38:04Speaker 1: this game. So I like that aspect of it. Two,
- 1:38:07Speaker 1: That's something I didn't mention on my show the other night.
- 1:38:12Speaker 1: So I don't think Vegas has really any home field
- 1:38:15Speaker 1: advantage here. Really, maybe like give them like one point
- 1:38:19Speaker 1: if that Vegas, they're coming off a tough game. Do
- 1:38:22Speaker 1: I know they've had extra rest here. But as I
- 1:38:24Speaker 1: pointed out, that was a big game for them on
- 1:38:26Speaker 1: Thursday night, a huge divisional game in Mile High and
- 1:38:30Speaker 1: they almost got the win at Denver. They only lost
- 1:38:32Speaker 1: ten to seven. That was a big game then, and
- 1:38:35Speaker 1: when you play a physical, punishing defense like that like Denver,
- 1:38:39Speaker 1: and now they're coming off that game, and like I said,
- 1:38:40Speaker 1: I think teams have only covered the next week after
- 1:38:43Speaker 1: playing Denver. I think they've only covered like two times
- 1:38:46Speaker 1: this entire season because Denver physically beats you up, and
- 1:38:50Speaker 1: that being a divisional game and almost pulling off a
- 1:38:52Speaker 1: huge upset. I don't think it's a good spot, even
- 1:38:55Speaker 1: with the extra rest for Vegas. I don't like it
- 1:38:57Speaker 1: at all. I like Dallas here, and of course Dallas,
- 1:39:00Speaker 1: I think he's gonna have the extra motivation, which I
- 1:39:02Speaker 1: talked about on my show the other night, with the
- 1:39:04Speaker 1: fact that Quineum will or not quite what's neland Quinon
- 1:39:09Speaker 1: Williams is one of their guys they got in trade,
- 1:39:11Speaker 1: so that's also a factor. By the way, Dallas has
- 1:39:14Speaker 1: made moves to get some defensive players. They got Quinton
- 1:39:16Speaker 1: Williams from the Jets, so he's gonna improve their defense
- 1:39:20Speaker 1: at least to some extent. I know Dallas has had
- 1:39:22Speaker 1: one of the worst defenses this season, I know, but
- 1:39:26Speaker 1: they got him. They traded for another defensive player I
- 1:39:29Speaker 1: think a linebacker or maybe somebody in the second or
- 1:39:33Speaker 1: I forget. But then Dallas also has a couple of
- 1:39:35Speaker 1: injured defensive players coming back as well, so Dallas's defense
- 1:39:39Speaker 1: should show some improvement here. And this Raider offense has
- 1:39:43Speaker 1: been really a mess all year too, So I don't
- 1:39:45Speaker 1: really see the Raider offense really being able to take
- 1:39:48Speaker 1: advantage of Dallas's bad defense. The Raiders haven't been able
- 1:39:52Speaker 1: to run the ball. Even though they drafted genty in
- 1:39:54Speaker 1: the first round. He hasn't been able to cut it, man.
- 1:39:56Speaker 1: I mean, I thought that might be the case because
- 1:39:58Speaker 1: going up against Mountain defenses that are that are any
- 1:40:02Speaker 1: good to then having to face NFL defense is a
- 1:40:05Speaker 1: totally different thing. Man. This Raider offense really hasn't been good.
- 1:40:09Speaker 1: I think Dallas might be able to slow them down
- 1:40:12Speaker 1: to some extent. And of course I don't think the
- 1:40:14Speaker 1: Raiders offense can catch up to Dallas's offense. Yeah, and
- 1:40:18Speaker 1: the Raiders, because they can't run the ball, they might
- 1:40:20Speaker 1: become one dimensional as well. And then it's all on
- 1:40:23Speaker 1: Geno Smith. And who does he have for receivers. He
- 1:40:26Speaker 1: has Bowers and that's it because they traded away Myers.
- 1:40:29Speaker 1: So you know that's gonna help Dallas's bad defense because
- 1:40:32Speaker 1: they know they can just double team Bowers, who's the
- 1:40:35Speaker 1: best receiver, the only receiver that the Raiders really have,
- 1:40:38Speaker 1: so he's their only target. So that makes it a
- 1:40:41Speaker 1: little bit easier to slow down this Raider offense, which
- 1:40:47Speaker 1: is very offensive. And as I was just alluding to,
- 1:40:50Speaker 1: we have the Kneeland situation with Dallas, which I talked
- 1:40:52Speaker 1: about in pretty decent detail the other night. They have
- 1:40:56Speaker 1: a guy who was a staple of their team and
- 1:40:58Speaker 1: one of their starting defense I believe he was a
- 1:41:00Speaker 1: starting defensive lineman, right Marshawn neland he I don't know
- 1:41:06Speaker 1: exactly what the situation was how it got to that,
- 1:41:08Speaker 1: but I know it was there was a police chase.
- 1:41:12Speaker 1: I don't know exactly what happened, but he committed suicides.
- 1:41:15Speaker 1: So now we have that in the air. But to me,
- 1:41:18Speaker 1: all those quotes that I read, you can go back
- 1:41:20Speaker 1: and watch my own Avall show from Saturday night. There
- 1:41:23Speaker 1: are a lot of quotes coming out of this Cowboys
- 1:41:24Speaker 1: locker room that I like to hear, Like you had
- 1:41:26Speaker 1: the coach Schottenheimer basically saying that the guys want to
- 1:41:30Speaker 1: go out and play football, like this is what they
- 1:41:32Speaker 1: want to do, you know, because they've had a hard
- 1:41:34Speaker 1: week whatever, one of the best things they can do
- 1:41:36Speaker 1: is go and play football. And I agree with that.
- 1:41:38Speaker 1: Like when teams have like a death on the team
- 1:41:41Speaker 1: like this, I think it does usually tend to be
- 1:41:43Speaker 1: more of a positive than a negative because football is
- 1:41:46Speaker 1: your distraction, right, Like, you've had to deal with this
- 1:41:49Speaker 1: death like all week. For them, it's been over over
- 1:41:52Speaker 1: a week because it's been the bye week. You get
- 1:41:55Speaker 1: that kind of out of your system, and football can
- 1:41:57Speaker 1: be a distraction from it all, right, But then there's
- 1:41:59Speaker 1: also the thing where you want to go out and
- 1:42:01Speaker 1: you want to get a win for the guy. You
- 1:42:03Speaker 1: know what I mean. You liked this guy, seems like
- 1:42:05Speaker 1: the team liked this guy. Dak Prescott seems like he's
- 1:42:09Speaker 1: extra motivated here because his brother actually committed suicide as
- 1:42:12Speaker 1: well back in the day, not recently, but back in
- 1:42:14Speaker 1: the day. So that's something Prescott has had to deal
- 1:42:17Speaker 1: with personally before. So I think you might see a big,
- 1:42:21Speaker 1: big effort out of Dallas here, man. So for all
- 1:42:23Speaker 1: those reasons, Dallas is gonna be the play here in
- 1:42:26Speaker 1: this Monday night game here or yeah, so yeah, And oh,
- 1:42:30Speaker 1: by the way, I think it's even better because Dallas
- 1:42:32Speaker 1: lost on Monday night prior to going into the buy
- 1:42:34Speaker 1: and now they get to redeem themselves with another Monday
- 1:42:37Speaker 1: night game that nobody can watch because of Disney. But
- 1:42:40Speaker 1: when you lost on Monday night, I think having another
- 1:42:42Speaker 1: Monday night game, it's like you have another opportunity. Hey,
- 1:42:45Speaker 1: we looked really bad in this spotlight game. Now we
- 1:42:48Speaker 1: get another spotlight game. We get a chance to look
- 1:42:50Speaker 1: way better this time. So yeah, I like it. Again,
- 1:42:53Speaker 1: the Raiders season is basically over, and yes I know
- 1:42:56Speaker 1: that for a team like the Raiders, when the season
- 1:42:58Speaker 1: is over, I like to say they're gonna get up
- 1:43:00Speaker 1: for games that are primetime games, which I know this is,
- 1:43:03Speaker 1: and they're gonna get up for divisional games. But the
- 1:43:05Speaker 1: game that they just played on last Thursday was both
- 1:43:09Speaker 1: a primetime game and divisional against the division leading Broncos,
- 1:43:13Speaker 1: who just beat the Chiefs yesterday, so which I was
- 1:43:17Speaker 1: wrong about. So yeah, I mean that that was a
- 1:43:22Speaker 1: bigger game for the Raiders than this one. Is. That's
- 1:43:25Speaker 1: just the way that it is. That's the way that
- 1:43:26Speaker 1: I read it, at least. So we're gonna lay it
- 1:43:28Speaker 1: with Dallas in that one man, and that's gonna do it.
- 1:43:32Speaker 1: So once again, today the play is, we have college basketball.
- 1:43:35Speaker 1: We have Oakland plus the points. Hopefully you can get
- 1:43:37Speaker 1: a little bit more than twelve and a half because
- 1:43:38Speaker 1: the line did drop a little bit. La Fayette plus
- 1:43:41Speaker 1: the points, Tulsa plus the points. So some big underdogs
- 1:43:46Speaker 1: because I know Jeffrey likes those, and all underdogs actually,
- 1:43:49Speaker 1: but a small one with North Dakota State hockey. We
- 1:43:52Speaker 1: got Utah on the money line, NBA Charlotte Hornets plus
- 1:43:56Speaker 1: the points. And in the NFL. So even on a
- 1:43:59Speaker 1: Monday that you usually slow Monday, so we actually have
- 1:44:01Speaker 1: seven plays today Dallas on Monday. So that's gonna do it. Yeah, Man,
- 1:44:09Speaker 1: White will get additional minutes for the Bulls or get
- 1:44:11Speaker 1: some minutes. Oh he's not gonna play. I don't even know, man,
- 1:44:16Speaker 1: I don't know what's going on with the Bulls right now.
- 1:44:17Speaker 1: But yeah, that game's really really unpredictable to me. Like,
- 1:44:22Speaker 1: regardless of the White situation, Sanders is bad, dude, I know,
- 1:44:26Speaker 1: like they're throwing him into the mix there, Dude, Stefanski,
- 1:44:29Speaker 1: he is the worst head coach when it comes to
- 1:44:31Speaker 1: quarterback decisions that I've ever seen. Like last year he
- 1:44:35Speaker 1: benched Jameis Winston to play DTR. I don't even know
- 1:44:39Speaker 1: where DTR is now. I think he might be is
- 1:44:41Speaker 1: he on the Eagles or some I don't know. He's
- 1:44:43Speaker 1: like a third fourth string quarterback somewhere. I don't even
- 1:44:46Speaker 1: know where he is now. That was ridiculously stupid. Winston
- 1:44:50Speaker 1: is dynamic, man, I know we didn't quite get there.
- 1:44:53Speaker 1: I mean, the Giants covered for us yesterday. If you
- 1:44:56Speaker 1: got the seven and a half, I thought they were
- 1:44:57Speaker 1: gonna win outright. The Giants could have won that game.
- 1:45:00Speaker 1: They're winning the game very late in the game. So
- 1:45:04Speaker 1: unfortunate there because Winston looked like he was very pumped
- 1:45:06Speaker 1: up for it. I think he did all right in
- 1:45:08Speaker 1: the game. Yeah, and then Sanders was terrible. I don't
- 1:45:13Speaker 1: even understand that move. I know Dylan Dylan Gabriel is bad,
- 1:45:16Speaker 1: but Sanders is probably even worse. And that was a
- 1:45:19Speaker 1: game where the Browns could have beaten the Ravens and
- 1:45:21Speaker 1: you're gonna change your quarterback. What are you doing? Man?
- 1:45:25Speaker 1: The Browns actually could have won that game if they
- 1:45:28Speaker 1: just stuck with Dylan Gabriel because he was keeping them
- 1:45:30Speaker 1: in that game while the defense was keeping them in
- 1:45:32Speaker 1: the game. But yeah, that was very, very strange. Stefanski
- 1:45:35Speaker 1: should be fired. I don't get it at all. Make
- 1:45:39Speaker 1: Jim Schwartz the head coach, man like focus extra hard
- 1:45:43Speaker 1: on the defense because their defense is good. Yeah, correct,
- 1:45:47Speaker 1: un alive player spot for Dallas Mariners signed Josh Naylor.
- 1:45:55Speaker 1: What do you mean eleven to one? You're saying they're
- 1:45:58Speaker 1: gonna eleven to one to win the world that's the odds.
- 1:46:00Speaker 1: They're eleven to one to win the World Series. I
- 1:46:03Speaker 1: mean that Mariner team. They've never even made the World
- 1:46:07Speaker 1: Series as a franchise. So I don't know. Man. They
- 1:46:11Speaker 1: had Josh Naylor this year, right, they just re signed him.
- 1:46:14Speaker 1: They got him in a trade this year, so they
- 1:46:16Speaker 1: had him for the stretch run this year. Oh, Gabriel
- 1:46:20Speaker 1: got injured. All right, thank you, Bobby. I take that
- 1:46:22Speaker 1: back then, all right, dude. I was confused because I
- 1:46:25Speaker 1: saw some people saying one thing, some people been saying
- 1:46:28Speaker 1: another thing, and I saw that stupid who's that lady,
- 1:46:31Speaker 1: that sports analyst who's like, I don't know, she's basically
- 1:46:34Speaker 1: like deep throating shit. Ura Sanders is saying if you
- 1:46:36Speaker 1: say anything bad about him, you're a racist or whatever.
- 1:46:39Speaker 1: That's all ridiculous. She's a moron. But I couldn't really
- 1:46:42Speaker 1: figure out, like, did they actually decide to switch away
- 1:46:46Speaker 1: from Gabriel because he was sucking or did he get hurt,
- 1:46:48Speaker 1: so all right, thank you, Bobby. I guess he got hurt, then,
- 1:46:52Speaker 1: all right, then I'll ease up on Stefanski a little
- 1:46:55Speaker 1: bit for that Sanders and not of experienced throwing to
- 1:47:03Speaker 1: those guys. I still don't think he's good though, hopefully
- 1:47:06Speaker 1: my I'm trying with my quarterback reads, man, Like I see,
- 1:47:10Speaker 1: like back in the day, I seem to be the
- 1:47:11Speaker 1: only one that thought Josh Allen was gonna be good.
- 1:47:14Speaker 1: Everybody was thinking Mitch Trubisky was gonna be better than Alan.
- 1:47:17Speaker 1: I think that was the same year. And I liked
- 1:47:19Speaker 1: Alan like I don't know, man, I don't know. It
- 1:47:22Speaker 1: was something in my mind. I mean, I've gotten some
- 1:47:24Speaker 1: quarterbacks wrong, but I thought Alan was gonna be great,
- 1:47:27Speaker 1: so I got that one right. And then I've said
- 1:47:29Speaker 1: that I like Jackson Dart obviously. I think I thought
- 1:47:32Speaker 1: he was the best of this quarterback class by far,
- 1:47:34Speaker 1: which I think is already turning out to be true.
- 1:47:36Speaker 1: He just keeps getting concussed because he's because he doesn't
- 1:47:40Speaker 1: take care of himself. He is super aggressive, running all
- 1:47:44Speaker 1: over the place and taking hits, which was the case
- 1:47:47Speaker 1: in college too, but this is the NFL. John Gruden's
- 1:47:50Speaker 1: gotta work with him. Man, John Gruden should become the
- 1:47:52Speaker 1: coach of the Giants. Grood him with Dart. I would
- 1:47:54Speaker 1: love that team so much. That's what should happen. And
- 1:48:00Speaker 1: then yeah, I also never liked Caleb Williams, so so
- 1:48:03Speaker 1: I'm on record with that too. I don't think Williams
- 1:48:06Speaker 1: is good. I still think the Bears are fraudulent. I
- 1:48:09Speaker 1: don't think JJ McCarthy is good either. So that's what
- 1:48:13Speaker 1: was going on in that game. Two very bad offensive
- 1:48:16Speaker 1: performances in that game. They were offending. They were offensive
- 1:48:19Speaker 1: to me. Dart, Yeah he's got something, man. Dart has
- 1:48:25Speaker 1: the I don't know, like he seems like he has
- 1:48:29Speaker 1: the ability to lead. Like you said, Yeah, I don't know.
- 1:48:32Speaker 1: He has a Juna se Quah about him. Yeah, he
- 1:48:36Speaker 1: looks like he is. He is the guy. But he's
- 1:48:38Speaker 1: gotta come back. That's gonna do it. Man, Thanks guys
- 1:48:40Speaker 1: for hanging out this morning. It's get some wins today.
- 1:48:43Speaker 1: Learn to towe on Twitter, Learned to toad on Instagram.
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- 1:48:56Speaker 1: channel on YouTube that's up to date. I believe now
- 1:48:58Speaker 1: with the covers have been putting much out. I apologize
- 1:49:01Speaker 1: that my voice is just really in dire straits right now. Man,
- 1:49:05Speaker 1: I can do dire straits. I'll do I'll redo money
- 1:49:07Speaker 1: for nothing. No, I don't know that that would at
- 1:49:10Speaker 1: least help my my voice will be able to do it,
- 1:49:13Speaker 1: because it would be able to do it because that
- 1:49:15Speaker 1: song is basically just talking for the vocals. And then
- 1:49:20Speaker 1: Patreon dot com, slash Learned to Toe and you get
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- 1:49:28Speaker 1: Tommy cutlets Tommy Cutletz is funny, but I don't think
- 1:49:31Speaker 1: he's a good quarterback. I don't know we're I think
- 1:49:34Speaker 1: is he on the Patriots? Now? I think he's on
- 1:49:35Speaker 1: the Patriots. Now he's the he's one of the Patriots
- 1:49:38Speaker 1: backup quarterbacks. Now. Uh, Tommy DeVito, Man, what's gonna happen though?
- 1:49:43Speaker 1: Because he's not in New York, so he can't go
- 1:49:45Speaker 1: back home and eat his mom eat his mom's a
- 1:49:47Speaker 1: chicken parmesan after the game. Now because he's not in
- 1:49:50Speaker 1: New York, I don't know. He's not that far away though.
- 1:49:54Speaker 1: I don't know, but yeah, I like him. He's just
- 1:49:55Speaker 1: not a good quarterback. All right. That's gonna do it.
- 1:49:58Speaker 1: Thanks guys, Peace,