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Transcript

Blue Jays/Dodgers MLB + WNBA + NFL Preseason Best Bets Saturday 8/9/25 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We're on OWN
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: seven run over the last two days after tonight.
• 0:08
  Speaker 2: It was just complete bullshit.
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: So that's that's I'm gonna start off this show horrible
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: Sunday one and five. I don't even know.
• 0:15
  Speaker 2: What to tell you about that.
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: I just don't want to do this anymore.
• 0:18
  Speaker 2: I have never seen anything like this.
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: Man with the slump continuing, two straight losses, not a
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: good day at all. Own four that.
• 0:29
  Speaker 2: Have not had a good season.
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: Man with wookends the slump that I'm on, and the
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: slump continues.
• 0:36
  Speaker 2: I've reached a new peak.
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: Actually, I'm going to burn my browins hack Man, I
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: don't know what is going on with the Bruins arch hape?
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: Is that what it is? I don't even know it's
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: it's March ninth, I think who even knows? Man, I
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: don't know what data is anymore. But I don't even
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: know what data is anymore.
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: Man, back with you after the worst day that I could.
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: Possibly have, Back with you as I always am until
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: I die at least oh and two yesterday and yesterday
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: did not go well for me.
• 1:07
  Speaker 2: Oh and five the worst.
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: Month that I've ever had in my eighteen years doing this.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: The slump yesterdays, the slump discontinuous, the slump continues.
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what I should do at this point,
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: other than potentially end it all. It's up, everybody, it's
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: towed back with you better off dead. Saturday, August ninth,
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: I'm doing it early. I got things to do today.
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: Gotta go to the dentist in the morning. It's early morning,
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: and I have to go later in the morning, so
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: I gotta try to keep this show somewhat abbreviated as well.
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: Hopefully I can do that. So much fun dentist obviously,
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: it's it's the best place on earth, man.
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: We all we all love that.
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: Two and two on the show yesterday. Unfortunately, I was
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: not happy about it. It was a slight loss in
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: the day. Kicked it off with a win on the
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: Miami Marlins first five innings. They won the game as well,
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: I believe, so that was a winner there either way.
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: You did it, Kansas City, Minnesota under not even close.
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: Seth Lugo uh Ken, you know, kissed my ass obviously
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: because he was terrible in that game. Joe Ryan pretty
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: much held up his end of the bargain for that
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: seth Lugo, Yeah, got bombed and that was the end
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: of it. Was probably his worst start of the last
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: like three seasons. So isn't that just great? The one
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: of the times that I like to that I actually
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: play him.
• 2:33
  Speaker 2: There it goes.
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: So I didn't actually play him, but I gave him
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: out as a I gave out the under as they
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: play on the show. And I will continue to point
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: out that I'm not actually betting any of these right
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: now because they am trying to be a little bit
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: risk averse right now. Took a loss on the Chicago
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: Cubs as well. Very surprisingly. The Chicago Cubs couldn't put
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: up any offense in that game. Michael McGreevy, I guess
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: he handed to him. He pitched well yesterday. Boyd was fine,
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: but I mean with no runs support behind him, it
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: wasn't good enough, obviously. And then the Cubs bullpen gave
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: up some runs too, and they lost five nothing. Not
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: what I expected in that game at all. And then
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: we did win in the night game on the Tampa
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: and Seattle.
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: Under and Tampa actually blew it in the end.
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: I thought Tampa was gonna win the game because they
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: had the big rest edge in the game. They blew
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: a two nothing lead in the bottom of the eighth
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: and lost three to two. Seattle playing really well right now,
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: But we didn't care about that because I give out
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: the under. If you played the under full game or
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: first five innings, even if you went under the three
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: and a half verst five, all of them won. So
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: if you played the under really in any capacity in
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: that game, it was a winner four years. So there
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: you go.
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: I will move on to today.
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: Now. We do have a lot of NFL preseason today,
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: which I will talk about it, but it's gonna be
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: really brief. I'm not gonna talk about every NFL preseason game.
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: I just think that's kind of ridiculous I have so
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: far because Thursday was just a short card, and then
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: I talked about all three games Yesterday or whatever the
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: other was it. Yes, I don't even know what day
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: is anymore, man, but whatever it was. Yeah, we'll talk
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: about that, and then we have a big MLB slate here,
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: we'll talk about WNBA. It looks like the dildo props
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: might be down from bet online right now, because I
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: did see them briefly, and it looked like because we're
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: waiting for Doldo number five, I guess, and it looked
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: like black as the color actually had the best odds
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: at this point, besides green obviously, But now that a
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: non green dildo has made its way under the court,
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: it's almost like, yeah, all bets are pretty much off here,
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: so we'll see what happens.
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: Chicago, Indiana. I mean even one of these games.
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: I mean, all four of these teams playing today have
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: actually been involved in dildo games, I believe, So there
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: could be a Doldo thrown in these games. Although it
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: looked like I saw Polymarket had odds poly Market had
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: better odds than there being one thrown tomorrow, but that's
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: just because there are way more games tomorrow. So I mean,
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: there could be one thrown today, man. I mean, I
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: wouldn't put it past these crowds here, although I don't
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: know if either one of these teams that's host has
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: actually had a duldough throne in their arena. But let's
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: just talk about these games real quick. They're not very interesting.
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: I don't think Indiana still without Caitlin Clark she's not
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: back yet. They did lose Colson and McDonald, I guess,
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: although I know Colson wasn't really I don't think she
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: was playing a whole lot. I don't even know who
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: McDonald is, so I don't know those are really key injuries.
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: But Indiana definitely a little bit shorthanded here. They are
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: returning home from a road trip as well. Not a
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: great spot really when you return home from a road
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: trip and tend to be a little bit distracted, typically
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: more often than not, because you have to get back
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: to home life. They did beat Chicago, who they're playing today.
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: They won at Chicago not that long ago, so it
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: might be a little bit of a revenge spot for Chicago.
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: Chicago's dealing with their own injuries though they have a
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: pretty significant injury report.
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: They have a lot of players who.
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: Are game time decisions, and Angel Reese I believe, is
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: still out. So we're not gonna have either of those players.
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: We're not gonna get the race battle here today between
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: Angel Reese and Caitlin Clark.
• 5:58
  Speaker 2: Neither of them are playing in this game.
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: So you can go to this game for cheap eighteen
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: dollars smuggling a Doldo in your buttthole and just you know,
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: throwing onto the court. Why not. But I would slightly
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: lean to Chicago in that game for those reasons. Indiana's
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: down from twelve to eleven. So it looks like the
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: money kind of has moved the way that I just said,
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: taking the points of Chicago. Man, Chicago is so bad.
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: That is a that is a huge line man, Indiana.
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: I mean, they were playing like some pretty solid basketball,
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: but until the last couple of games.
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: Stand with Israel. What's up with Israel?
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: Hell? All right, there you go.
• 6:35
  Speaker 2: What's up man? Is that Cthulhu in and your avats
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: are there?
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: What's up man? Thanks for hanging out this early in
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: the morning. We're really really late for you wherever the
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: hell you are. Then we have a competitively lying game
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: that actually should be a competitive game between LA and
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: Golden State because both these teams I believe, are tied
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: in the standings right now and they're both fighting for
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: one of those last playoff spots right now, So this
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: one could be a more interesting on Golden State coming
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: off two straight losses to Vegas and they're staying at
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: home at this point. They actually return home in their
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: last game and lost, which it was a return home spot,
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: which again is a very difficult spot. But I thought
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: they might play better because they were playing the same
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: team that just beat them the day before that or
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: the game before that, so I thought they might do better,
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: which they did, but they still didn't win the game.
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: LA has been kind of sneakily playing well, coming from
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: out of nowhere, winning what is that nine of their
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: last ten games or something like that, and they're only
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: lost and there was actually to Vegas as well, So
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: both of these teams have lost three recent games to
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: Vegas combined. But whatever, LA currently on another three game
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: win streak here and now they're starting another road trip
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: basically going up the coast to the Bay Area. There
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: not a terrible spot for LA there, probably, I guess
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: I would have a slight lean to LA. The money
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: seems to be coming in that way, up from one
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: to two. I agree that they're the better team. Line
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: looks like a little bit misleading right now, because I mean,
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: you have teams that are almost I mean they are
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: the same record basically, so then it's like, how was
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: the home team getting points? Right? Well, the oddsmakers are
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: telling you LA is actually indeed the better team here,
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: and there might be some injuries to I know. I mean,
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: Golden State is without Caleb Thornton, but that's been the
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: case for a while now. But she's one of their
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: best players and she's gonna miss the rest of the seasons.
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: So they're definitely gonna be missing her at some point,
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: Mike cause them to miss the playoffs anyway, all I
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: forgot to say, this is the rundown.
• 8:29
  Speaker 2: I always forget about that.
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: Let's get through Major League baseball, man, try to get
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: through it here. I'm gonna give out two plays in baseball,
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: and I have some other leans as well.
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: We actually have a double header.
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: We have a couple of afternoon games, and one of
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: them is Miami Atlanta, who are playing a double header.
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: They must be playing a makeup game, I guess because
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: they did play yesterday because I gave out Miami first
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: five in that game yesterday, which was a winner. So
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: I guess they had a game rained out at some
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: point because they're making it up here today. The game
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: afternoon is not a good pitching matchup. And as far
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: as the bullpen usage year we do have, I mean
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: normally I would say probably Atlanta has a lightly better bullpen.
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: Miami only used one relief pitcher yesterday. Both teams actually
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: only used one relief pitcher yesterday, so bullpens are actually
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: decent coming into today. Might be in okay shape to
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: pitch in two games today, but we'll see because the
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: starting pitching matchup is weird in this first game and
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: kind of questionable. Ryan Gusto, I guess, is making his
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: Marlin's debut because he was on Houston, and I guess
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: Houston traded him away and then he's been in the minors.
• 9:37
  Speaker 2: He hasn't been very good.
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: Four point nine two ERA one point four to three
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: whip better on the road though three point one ERA
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: on the road. Last time out, he did go six innings,
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: lining one run against Washington, five strikeouts, one walk, which
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: wasn't terrible a strikeout walker race. He hasn't been that
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: bad over the past month or so in the month
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: of July, but overall his numbers still aren't very good.
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: He wasn't really cutting yet. Now he's going up against
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: the Atlanta Braves here who actually have never seen him before,
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: so maybe he has a little bit of an edge
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: here just because the Braves haven't seen him before. He
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: might be I don't know if he's gonna be pumped
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: because he went from a contender in Houston to a
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: Marlin scene that is likely not contending for anything. So
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: I don't know if he's gonna be excited about pitching
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: for his new team or what. Man, So it's very
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: difficult to gazor you're gonna get out of Gusto. Atlanta
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: has Hurston Waldrup making the start here, and he's a
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: guy that was a pretty highly touted draft pick a
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: few years back. I don't really know what happened. He
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: does throw a hard fastball. I believe he throws an
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: upper nineties fastball. I guess he has a really good splitter,
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: but I guess the rest of his arsenal needs work.
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: And I guess he's really really wild because I looked
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: at his minor league numbers this year and they're not
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: that good, like his era is. I believe in the
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: like around four or so in Triple A, which isn't
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: that great, and his whip is like one point four,
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: which I think is due to the wildness. He has
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: a pretty good strikeout ran in the miners, but he's
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: walking a ton of guys man, so he hasn't really
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: fixed his wildness. I guess he does throw like a slider,
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: a cutter, a sinker. I believe in a curveball as
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: well for his one actual slow pitch, so mostly it's
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: a fastball mix out of Waldrope. But he hasn't totally
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: been getting a done man in the miners. Last year
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: he made two starts for Atlanta, which I don't remember
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: at all, and he didn't do well in those two starts.
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: This year, he has made one start for Atlanta very recently.
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: That was probably one of those games where they were
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: undecided when I broke down the game, because I do
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: not remember talking about him at all. He did okay
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: against Cincinnati five and two thirds innings. This was at
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: home as well. Gave up one on run, four strike
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: got still had some wildness in that one with two walks,
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: but he was decent in that start. Miami has never
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: seen it before, I'm pretty sure. So what are we
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: gonna get on him? I don't know. Man. You have
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: two pitchers that have never been seen before by the
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: opposing hitters in this matchup, so you could argue they're
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: both maybe gonna do okay. But the osmakers threw up
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: a total nine and a half in this game, it
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: did already drop to nine. Miami is a road favorite here,
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: as they have been in every game in the series
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: from minus one oh five to minus one oh six. Here,
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: I would probably not want to play Miami. I don't
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: trust Gusto at all, man, so I don't like that idea.
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: As far as the total, I could see the first
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: five innings maybe going under just because of the unfamiliarity here.
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: But there's no way I would want to bank on
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: two starters that you really can't gauge very well. And
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: then these teams are gonna play in the evening as well,
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: so they're playing in one fifteen game. Then they're gonna
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: have a break and then play a game at seven
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: fifteen Eastern. Usually when you see these double headers, it's
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: like almost one right after the other, but not for
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: this doubleheader here in the night game. If you're gonna
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: play an over in one of these games, I mean
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: I would probably play in well, if you're gonna play
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: a total at all, I should say, because I kind
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: of lean to the under in the first five in
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: the first game, I think over is the way to
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: look at the second game here. I mean, both of
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: these starters are extremely untrustworthy, and you might have a
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: lot of bullpend usage in game one. You don't really know,
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: so the bullpends might be a little bit overworked. I
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: don't know if that if the second game, if game
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: two of a double header, I don't even know if
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: game two of a double header actually affects the hitting
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: a little bit or not, as far as like the
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: hitter is being a little bit tired because they already
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: played a game. I don't really know. But this pitching
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: matchup in game two looks really really awful. Sandy el
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: Contra pitching from Miami six point four to four ERA,
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: one point four to two whip not good numbers, really
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: bad on the road eight point eight six ERA. I mean,
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: it's very very sad, really, you know, he just has
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: never bounced back from the injuries and surgeries that he's had.
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: I pitched okay for a little bit over the past
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: month or so, and then kind of fell apart again.
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: Gave up six runs last time. I think it's Houston,
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: which is not good. They definitely were able to hit him,
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: even though he had five strikeouts one walk. Overall, his
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: strikeout rate has never gone back to what it was
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: early in his career. His strike out rates have been
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: pretty low recently. Hasn't been walking a ton of guys,
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: but he has giving up some hard hits in some
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: of these games, so he's just not really fooling hitters
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: at this point. Numbers are mediocre in his career against
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: Atlanta one hundred nineteen at bats, twenty nine to eight
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: strike a walk ratio is good to sixty one batting
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: average seven hundred oh ps. Not horrible numbers, but some
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: of that must be from before he was before he
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: was injured, you know, before he's been this bad. So
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: I would take into account his recent form more than
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: what those numbers are, so I would probably be leaning
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: towards him not doing well. And Eric Fetti, I think
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: you've been pretty much always leaning towards him not doing well.
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: Five point three two ERA, one point four to eight
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: whip on the season. He came over from Saint Louis
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: and it has not been good. He's been bad at
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: home a five point five nine eral, though most of
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: that was with Saint Louis. He did pitch one game
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: at home with Atlanta and wasn't great. I gave out
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee on the on the show here, and Milwaukee did
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: get it done for him, or may barely. Fetti went
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: five and a third still, gave up three on runs,
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: had no strikeouts, two walks. That wasn't good, and he
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: didn't even make it five innings in his other Atlanta start,
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: giving up four runs and four to two thirds to
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: Kansas City. Not a good lineup, so he's not doing
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: very well with Atlanta so far. Miami hasn't seen him
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: much though, surprisingly only three at bats against him. They're
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: one for three lifetime with a strikeout, so Fetti might
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: actually have a little bit of an unfamiliarity edge in
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: game two there, So I mean, if you want to
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: do something really really crazy and lean towards Atlanta, it
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: looks like the money kind of is coming in that way.
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: Miami dropped for minus one to fifteen to minus one
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: ZHO six in that game. Although just on the surface,
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: I think Olecondre is the better pitcher over Fetti, though,
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: but I think over is the way to look in
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: that game, and it's up a little bit from eight
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: and a half to eight and a half or no,
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: it actually went down to eight and a half juice
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: to the under my mistake, but I would lean to
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: the over in that game. Houston at the Yankees, Yeahs
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: had another bullpen implosion yesterday. Devin Williams again gave up,
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: gave it up. The guy that the Yankees used to
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: have a no facial hair policy or no beards at least,
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: and they finally got. I mean, it's a stupid policy,
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: they finally got. It's like uptight bullshit. Of course, I'm
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: a Red Sox fan. The Red Sox like to have
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: huge beards, you know, blue collar, down and dirty, you
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: know the way that I like it. Man. But the
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: Yankees actually a loud beard starting this year, basically just
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: for Devin Williams that he didn't have to shave his beard.
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: And he's been terrible as their clotheser this year. Man.
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: I don't think there's any other way to put it.
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: Yankees have lost six of their last seven games, I
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: believe is what that is now. Not playing great baseball
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: right now? Man. And their bullpen, as I was just
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: basically alluding to, is a concern here. Their bullpen's definitely
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: the worst of these two bullpens up against Texas, Texas,
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: is it Texas? Wait? What am I even talking about? No, Houston,
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: the other Texas team, excuse gonna Beyeah. Houston has a
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: much better bull as well, and the Yankees used more
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: of their bullpen yesterday as well, So Texas does have Houston.
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: God I keep saying Texas, Houston does have the bullpen
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: edge in this game. From Bervaldez is pitching for Houston.
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: He's been one of their best starters. Two point eight
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: three ERA, one point one two whip good stuff. Worse
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: on the road though, four point h four R on
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: the road, so he is more hittable on the road.
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: He's coming off basically his worst start of the season
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: last time out on the road at Femway Park, which
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: he I mean there was kind of a defense of
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: unraveling behind him where it was it all like all
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: the damage happened in one inning and he couldn't get
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: out of the inning. The defense like failed behind him,
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: so it wasn't entirely his fault. He gave up five
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: earned runs against the Red Sox in one single inning,
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: but he went six innings in the game, so he
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: wasn't really that awful in the game. He did have
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: three strikeouts, which isn't that many one walk whatever. I'm
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: not ready to say that he's in like really bad
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: form now or anything like that. His numbers are mediocre
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: against the Yankees. It's gonna be another tough task for
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: him to pitch at the Bronx. I mean, that's not easy.
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: We know the Yankees obviously have the better offense out
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: of these two teams, even though Houston's is all right.
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: Fifty nine bats for Valdez against Houston against the Yankees,
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: Oh my god, it's too early, man, I can't even talk.
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: Two seventy one batting every seven to ninety nine ops
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: allowed twenty to eight strike a walk ratio. So his
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: numbers are decent against the Yankees. He's going up against
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: Luis Heel, which I don't know what we're gonna get
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: out of Heel here. Man. He had a pretty decent
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: season last year, although his issue has pretty much been
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: the walks, Like he could strike guys out, but he
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: is wild as hell, and that was the case his
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: first game back. He hadn't pitched yet this year, and
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: his first game back was not good against Miami. He
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: was not a good offense. He only lasted three and
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: a third, gave up five and runs on five hits
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: plus four walks and struck out three.
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: So maybe you give him a pass for that.
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: Because it was his first game pitching in basically a
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: year's time, and he was coming back from injuries. You
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: expects some struggles where he has to get used to
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: pitching again at the major league level, but that was
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: a bad start against a pretty bad offense. So he
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: is facing a better offense here in Houston. But in
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: his career he's actually been good against Houston. Their current
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: lineup is only one for nineteen often with nine strikeouts,
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: two walks oh fifty three average if you can do
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: the math there in one ninety five ohps. So slightly
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: in to the Yankees in the first five innings for me, man,
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: because I don't want any part of the bullpens. But
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: the money looks like it's agreement.
• 19:31
  Speaker 2: The Yankee side.
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: Houston down for minus one thirty to minus one seventeen
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: sixty one percent. Ticket's only sixty percent of the cash.
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: I do think Valdez is good, though, but the money
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: looks like it's coming in, expecting heel to actually pitch
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: a lot better here. Uh, I could see some arguments
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: for a first five inning under in this game as well.
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: The total thing at eight. You could wind up with
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: a bit of a pitcher's duel early on, because I
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: think Valdez is still a good pitcher. But again, I
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: think the best way to attack that game is actually
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: a Yankees first five innings. Probably you're getting them as
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: an underdog price. Don how often do you get the
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: Yankees as a home underdog. Not often, so there might
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: actually be some value or usually you're paying attacks to
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: play the Yankees, But in this case, I don't think
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: you really are, because of Heel's really bad starting this
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: one start so far this year, and.
• 20:18
  Speaker 2: Because Houston's been playing really well.
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: And the Yankees have not been playing well recently. Washington
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: at San Francisco. San Francisco on a three game win
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: streak to shut out Washington five nothing yesterday. San Francisco
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: definitely has the better of these two bullpens here Washington.
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: I'll give Washington the offensive edge because San Francisco's is
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: so bad.
• 20:38
  Speaker 2: Washington used less of their bullpend yesterday.
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: They basically had Oga Sawara, who was in the starting
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: rotation for a little bit, just eat up innings in
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: yesterday's game to save their Bullpendal, though I don't know
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: why they're saving anything because they got nothing to play
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: for here. I mean, Miami and Atlanta have nothing to
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: play for either. Houston, New York both obviously they're playing
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: for playoff positioning. Washington pretty much has nothing to play
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: for here. In San Francisco is probably gonna have the
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: motivational edge at least because they are still trying to
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: make the playoffs here. Brad Lord listed as a starter
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: for the Nats. I've made some mistakes trying to go
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: against this guy man, because I really don't think he's
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: that good. Three point four two ERA one point two
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: to three whip and those are decent numbers. Though two
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: point seventy RA in the road is fine. But the
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: reason I was going against him is because he was
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: a relief pitcher and then he started making starts, and
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: you know he's not gonna go that deep into these starts,
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: and then you have to deal with washing its bulpen
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: and that's not really ever a good sign. He finally
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: didn't have a good start last time, but he failed
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: to go five innings against Milwaukee. He's only at most
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: one five and a third, which is a game against
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: Houston so I still don't think he's that good.
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: I'm just I'm not trusting.
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: Lord. I think you're gonna see a lot of the
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: Nationals bulp end in this game, and they already used
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: Ogasawara yesterday for a lot of pitches, so he's not
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: gonna be available a Lord. Against the Giants, they're zero
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: for four, often with a strikeout and no walks, but
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: very small sampus. I don't think you'd take away a
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: lot from that Carson wizzen Hunt pitching for the Giants here.
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: I believe he's a rookie. Yeah, so he hasn't pitched
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: in the majors until this year. He's got a four
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: point three to five RAM one point one to six
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: whip across two starts, and he was worse in his
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: home start seven point two ERA because of that one
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: start at home which was uninspiring, and give up four
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: and runs at home to Pittsburgh, which isn't very good.
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: But maybe you'd give him a little bit of a
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: break because it was his first start ever. In his
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: last start, he pitched at the match, which is they're
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: pretty good offense, and he only gave up one and
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: run in five and a third inning, So he did
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: pitch better in that game, even though he did walk
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: to guys. I'm still not ready to trust wizen Hunt.
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: But the one thing to know about him is that
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: he has like an elite change up that's like the
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: one that's his thing, man, that his change up is
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: his best pitch. He doesn't throw that hard. He tries
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: to fool hitters with a mix of like off speed stuff,
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: and his change up is where it's at. Andrew, what's
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: up man? You missed the the WNBA talk though, as
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: far as the egg plan is concerned. But overall, I'd
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: probably still lean to San Francisco in this game. I
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: think they You could pretty much argue they have the
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: starting pitching edge, and obviously they have the bulpen edge,
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: and I don't think the offensive edge that Washington might
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: have here is really that significant, and San Francisco needs
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: to get wins here. San Francisco is down for minus
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: one sixty one fifty seven tickets ninety three percent of
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: the cash on them. Probably be leaning to San Francisco
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: in some capacity in that game, although I don't love
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: the price either, so but maybe I mean, you could
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: argue for playing them run line, but with a bad
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: offense like that, it's tough to cover on minus one
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: and a half or whatever. At home, you could go
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: minus one run line or split one minus one and
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: a half half the bet and money line half the bet,
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: something like that. But I agree with the San Francisco
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: side in that game. In general, Anaheim andrew just the
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: time for Anaheim Angels at Detroit, Detroit beat them six
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: to five yesterday. Detroit has the better bullpend here. Anaheim's
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: bullpen is pretty bad. Detroit only used two relievers yesterday
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: and Anaheim used four, so Detroit definitely has a bullpen
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: edge in this game. I'll give the offensive edge to
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: Detroit as well, and Detroit is particularly good at home,
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: so I think Detroit has a bunch of edges in
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: this game. As far as it's starting pitching. On the surface,
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: you would say, well, Kakuchi is definitely the better pitcher
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: over Morton, right, But in this matchup, I'm not so
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: sure about that. Yeah, Kakuchi three point two two era
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: pretty good, but his whip is very high one point four.
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: He walks way too many guys, man, So I think
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: at some point you're gonna see his era go up
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: because you can't put one point four guys on base
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: and inning and continue to not allow runs like that.
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: He has been worse on the road to four point
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: two to seventy r on the road, So if you
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: want to fake Kokuchi, you usually want to do it
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: on the road. I did have a good start last
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: time out at home Wan and run allowed against Tampa
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: six innings, seven strikeouts, two walks, but he was struggling
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: prior to that. Man he gave up some runs, didn't
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: really go deep into any game in the prior month
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: in July, and he gave up some runs in most
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: of those games, so he wasn't exactly great, even though
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: he was limiting the runs.
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: To basically three or few were in pretty much all
• 25:11
  Speaker 2: those starts.
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: But when you're not going that deep into these games,
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: it looks less impressive. And his numbers against Detroit are
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: very bad. In seventy three at bats three seventy batting
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: average allowed, one thousand and sixty ops, they got five
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: homers off and Torres has a torrid hitting pace off
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: of him twelve for thirty with two on the runs
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: of three walks. So if you want to look for
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: a player prop there, you could look for Torres to
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: maybe do something in this game. But Detroit has Charlie
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: Morton on the mound. He's made one start for Detroit's
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: it's coming over from Baltimore. Bad numbers on the season,
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: five point two ERA, one point five to whip, really
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: bad better at home generally, although this includes with Baltimore
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: four point six to eighty RA at home.
• 25:54
  Speaker 2: Hasn't made any or that's all with Baltimore.
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: He hasn't had any home start you after Detroit, but
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: I mean, Horton has been an anomaly man. I mean
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: he's really old, so it seemed like his career was over.
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: Baltimore was losing so many games with him on the mound,
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: they send him to the bullpen, and then when they
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: brought him back into the starting rotation, he's been like
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: lights out almost since then, well not quite lights out,
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: but he's been really good since then, except for one
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: bad start at Tampa, which is a very hitter friendly park.
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: He's been quite good since then. And his first start
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: with Detroit was at Philadelphia, which is certainly not an
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: easy task, and he had He went six innings and
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: only allowed one on and run, six strikeouts, one walk,
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: four hits, really nice start out of Morton, so he
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: might actually pitch well in this game. And he has
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: decent numbers against Anaheim and eighty two at bats twenty
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: five to six strikeout walker as yo two fifty six
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: average allowed, six ninety seven ops.
• 26:44
  Speaker 2: So Morton has good numbers against Anaheim.
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: I've started out looking at this game thinking, oh, come on,
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: Cacuchi on the road versus Morton, and I was gonna
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: recommend an over in this game. And I don't necessarily
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: disagree with that. I mean, the total has gone up
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: a little from eight and a half juice to the
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: under to eight and a half, but I mean I
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: kind of agree with Detroit as well, but the money
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: is completely disagreeing with that. So I don't really want
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: to do that Detroit down for my one fifty five
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: to minus one, twenty seven, fifty three percent of tickets
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: on them, but seventy eight percent of the cash coming
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: in on Anaheim. Given those matchup numbers, then the splits
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: that I just showed you, I don't really see how
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: you can play Anaheim in this game, to be honest, man,
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: Even though Detroit, yeah, you could argue they're just too
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: heavy a favorite with a guy like Morton on the mound.
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: But anyway, I think I'll come for full circle on that,
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: and I still think maybe the best way to play
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: that is still look towards an over in that game,
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: even though Detroit's bullpen is decent. If you know Morton
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: does struggle and he's out of that game, then you
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: know it could kind of have a domino effect into
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: the bullpen.
• 27:41
  Speaker 2: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh.
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh has won the first two games of this series,
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: which is kind of crazy because Pittsburgh is out of it.
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati is in the thick of it. Man, Cincinnati needs
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: to win games if they want to get into the playoffs.
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: Here in Pittsburgh, I guess they're just stepping up just
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: because they want to spoil Cincinnati season. Which is crazy
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: is Pittsburgh does have the better of the two bullpens,
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: but as far as the usage, Cincinnati used at a
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: little bit less of their bullpen yesterday two relievers compared
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: to Pittsburgh's three, but will still probably give the bullpen
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: inch to Pittsburgh. After that, I think Cincinnati does get
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: the starting pitching edge. With Nick Martinez pitching, he hasn't
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: been that great. Four point six six Era one point
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: two to one whip on the season four point ninety.
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: I ran. The road's a little bit worse than the road.
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: What they've been doing with Martinez is a little bit
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: odd man because he's had a couple of random appearances
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: out of the bullpen.
• 28:36
  Speaker 2: One was his most recent appearance, which wasn't very good.
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: He came in out of the bullpen and went two
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: and a third at Wrigley and gave up two runs
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: to the Cobs, but it is the Cobs that are
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: a really good offense. Maybe he just wasn't used to
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: coming out of the bullpen because that was a game
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: where Nick Lodolo started and he had a blister and
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: they had to take him out, so Martinez came into
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: the game in that game. So he's actually pitching on
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: slightly short rests too, because that was exactly five days ago.
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: And usually these pitch will have one extra day in
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: there because teams usually get a day off somewhere in there,
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: so pitchers usually pitching on one extra day of rest,
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: so Martinez won't be rested. But he only threw thirty
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: three pitches in that game, so maybe the amount of
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: rest doesn't really matter. His numbers against Pittsburgh are actually
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: not good. Even though Pittsburgh's offense is terrible, Cincinnati has
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: the better offense sixty six at bats, twenty two to
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: five strike a walk race here to eighty eight batting
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: average allowed, and seven to sixty two ops. So his
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: numbers is not very good against Pittsburgh. But Pittsburgh has
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: Braxton Ashcraft listed as their starter, and he is a
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: guy who's been in the bullpen all year. Three point
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: two four ERA, one point three to eight whip is
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: really bad. So even though he's been limiting the damage
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: run wise, his whip indicates something else is going on.
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: He's putting too many guys on base. He's been worse
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: at home four point three ERA at home, But again,
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: he's been coming out of the bullpen. He hasn't gone
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: more than three innings in any appearance this year, So
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: I don't think we're gonna get a deep appearance out
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: of Ashcraft. Yere. What does surprise me is Cincinnati, even
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: though they're in his division right now, I've never faced
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: him before, so that's a little weird. So maybe we'll
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: have a little bit of an edge early on, just
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: because they've never seen him. Before, but you're basically getting
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: kind of a Pittsburgh Bope end game in this game.
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: I'm not sure either starter is totally trustworthy in that game,
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: so that game is probably looking like you kind of
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: want to look towards an over in that game as well,
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: total sitting at eight and a half. I know it's
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: a little bit tough to do that with Pittsburgh's offense
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: being so weak, but I think that's the way that
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: I would lean in that game. Cincinnati's down for one
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: twenty one eighteen. They got fifty seven percent of tickets
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: with eighty nine percent of the cash coming in on Pittsburgh.
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: So the professional money actually likes the Pittsburgh Bope end game.
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: I don't know, you try to figure that one out.
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: I can't really figure it.
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: Out for myself.
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: A's and Baltimore really ugly match up here between two
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: teams that are out of it.
• 30:53
  Speaker 2: That Orioles won yesterday three to two.
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: I kind of liked the A's in that game, and
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: I like them in the game, So I don't know
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: if the A's had the leader earlier in the game
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: or not, but both these bullpens stink, especially the A's
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: Baltimore's is more rested as well, because the A's actually
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: played two days ago and Baltimore didn't, So Baltimore definitely
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: gets a bullpen edge here.
• 31:14
  Speaker 2: An though their bullpen still stinks.
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: The A's probably have the better offense, though with all
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: those young hitters they have there. Jack Perkins, also a
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: young guy, would be making the start for the A's.
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: He does have pretty good numbers this year three point
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: nine to seventy RA, one point one to five WHIP
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: and he's actually been way better outside of that awful
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: Sacramento stadium they have to play, and he is a
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: point seventy to ninety RA on the road, although it's
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: in a very small sample size. Perkins was, I believe
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: making relief appearances, and then I think he's made one
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: start so far, his last outing against Arizona. He only
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: went three innings, gave it four and runs, three walks,
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: five hits, four strikeouts. It was not a great performance
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: from I know it was a difficult offense to face
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: with Arizona, even though Arizona traded a couple of their
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: bats away. But still, Perkins, I'm not ready to trust him, man.
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: I don't think he's gonna go very deep into this game.
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: Orioles have never seen him before, so maybe while he's
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: out there, he will have a little bit of an
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: upper hand as far as the unfamiliarity is concerned, because again,
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: the hitters have to kind of figure the pitcher out.
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: But I don't think I'm ready to trust Perkins. Brandon
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: Young is pitching for Baltimore. He's a young guy that's
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: got some talent, but it hasn't really happened yet for him.
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: I think he's had kind of a delayed start to
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: his major league career or two because I think he
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: was dealing with injuries. Five point eight eighty r a
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: one point six to seven whip on the season. I
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: know that's really bad. His numbers look way.
• 32:36
  Speaker 2: Worse than Perkins.
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: Young has been really bad at home as well, six
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: point eight five yr. So I wouldn't really want to
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: touch him either. Here. I don't want to touch him, man,
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: He's not handsome enough for me. But I mean, his
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: walk numbers haven't been that great. Although he's kind of
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: gotten under control a little bit recently, they've gone down
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: a little bit. It's last outing he didn't make it
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: five innings against the Cubs, but he actually allowed nowhere
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: and runs in that start up, had two walks, four strikeouts.
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: It wasn't an awful start for him, and he had
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: one good start prior to that against Toronto, going six
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: innings long, twour and runs. With the two starts prior
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: to that are three out of the prior four. Actually
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: all the rest of his starts besides one of them.
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: One of them he didn't even make it five innings,
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: so he's struggling. He's not going deep into games. His
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: strikeout rate is okay, but his walk rate is way
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: too high. He's allowed too many hits. So young overall,
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: very difficult guy to actually put your money on. The
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: A's have never seen him before, so he does have
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: an unfamiliarity edge, So we do have that on both.
• 33:32
  Speaker 2: Sides of this starting pitching matchup.
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: I still don't think we could trust these pitchers enough
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: to want to go like under though in the first
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: five innings or something like that. High total of ten
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: kind of indicates there's something going on here. I mean,
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: part of it is that both bullpens are putrid, but
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: that's a high total to see in a game that's
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: not at Oakland or at the A's I mean Stadium
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: or at Coursfield seventy six percent tickets to eighty four
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash coming in on the over, even
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: though the total flip from being used to the over
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: to juice to the under. I wouldn't necessarily disagree with
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: the over, because I don't really trust either. Start here,
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: the money is also coming in on Baltimore up for
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: minus one ten of minus one eleven. That's the strongest
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: market read at least seventy percent of the cash on
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: them fifty percent of tickets evenly split. So I think
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: the sense is probably that Young is just more used
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: to going deeper into these games than Perkins's, so you're
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: probably gonna get the as really bad bullpen into the
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: game before Baltimore's bullpen is in the game. So I
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: think that's probably the sense there, and part of the
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: reason why Baltimore is taking the money there.
• 34:31
  Speaker 2: I don't really disagree with that.
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: Cleveland at the White Sox, White Socks have lost five
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: games in a row after they were actually playing some
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: decent baseball for a little bit. They lost yesterday nine
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: to five, and I actually thought Chicago was a way
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: to look in the first five innings yesterday, and I
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: was wrong.
• 34:49
  Speaker 2: Savale did not have a good performance.
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: The White Socks kind of saved their bullpend, but how
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: good is their bullpend? Not very Cleveland was more of
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: their were levers for compared to the White Sox. Two
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: generally has the better bullpen over the White Sox, but
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: due to the usage, maybe it evens out a little
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: bit here Cleveland.
• 35:08
  Speaker 2: I mean, I don't even know which team.
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: I would say has the better offense at this point, man,
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: I mean they're both not good offenses.
• 35:14
  Speaker 2: White Sox are way down near the bottom.
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: Cleveland also is, but I guess you give Cleveland the
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: slight edge offensively, which is ridiculous. The starting pitching matchup
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: is somewhat interesting. Joey Cantillo is pitching for the Indians here.
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: Four point three seven e RA one point four to
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: four whip. Those are not good numbers.
• 35:32
  Speaker 2: He hasn't been better on the road though, three point
• 35:34
  Speaker 2: six ram the road. Last time.
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: He had nine strikeouts against Minnesota and five to two thirds,
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: so his strikeout stuff was working even though you gave
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: it four and runs in that start. The prior to
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: starts are actually three of the prior four he'd allow
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: three or more walks in all those starts though, so
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: his walk rate has been way too high. He hasn't
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: a lot of a lot of runs. He was coming
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: out of the bullpen for a lot of the season,
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: but since he's been in the starting rotation, he's basically
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: been limited to around five innings at restart. So it
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: doesn't go that deep. But his issue really is the control.
• 36:05
  Speaker 2: It's his walks.
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: He strikes out a good amount of guys, the walks
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: are really the main problem. He doesn't allow that many
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: hits either. Numbers are good against the White Sox line
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: mean we're talking about a bad line up here. In
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: thirty at bats that they only have five hits, thirteen strikeouts,
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: no walks, one sixty seven average four point thirty three
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: oh ps.
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: So Cantillo has done well against the White Sox.
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: He's going up against Sean Burke, another young pitcher here,
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: was having an up and down season for the White Sox.
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: Four point two to three era one point four to
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: one whip is really bad. The era is okay that
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: that whip is way too high. He has been a
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: little bit better at home though, three point seventy nine
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: the ra at home he's done okay recently. He hasn't
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: had too many bad starts, but he's not going that deep.
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: Just like Cantillo, he's going around five innings and about
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: every start as well. But you have to go back
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: to early July to find a start where you give
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: it more than three or in runs, and the prior
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: start I was in like early to mid June, when
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: he gave up more runs than that, So he's actually
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: not allowing that many runs recently. Seven strikeouts last time
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: out against Anaheim at three earned runs a lot of
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: five innings, not a horrible start for him, and he
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: had eight strikeouts to start before that in one walk
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: against a tough Cub lineup, although he didn't even make
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: it five innings in that game. But he is pitching
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: okay right now facing a pretty weak Cleveland lineup.
• 37:23
  Speaker 2: They're not good against him.
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: Five to thirty five lifetime eleven strikeouts seven walks isn't
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: a good ratio for him, but all the other numbers
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: are pretty good. One forty three average left, five forty
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: three oh ps, so he does well against this supposing
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: lineup too, So I think first five inning under is
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: probably the way to look in this game, and you
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: have two bad offenses that have bad matchup numbers against
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: these opposing pitchers here, and the pitchers their numbers don't
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: look exactly that great. Like, I don't think any public
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: better is gonna look at this game think, oh, I
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: want to play an under in this game, but I
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: wouldn't want to deal with the bullpens because I trust them.
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: So first five under is the way. Look in this game,
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: it's down a little bit from nine to eight and
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: a half here, so you might have missed that key
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: number of nine to go, or well, if you want
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: to go full game, you might have missed the key
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: number nine. But for first five, it doesn't matter as much.
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: First five you get like a four, maybe even a
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: four and a half. That looks pretty decent to me.
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: That number, to me, actually seems too high. Ninety two
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets nine to nine percent of the cash
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: in the over though, but it's a public over, so
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't really have that much of an issue taking
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: a first five under at all there due to the
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: market read cleaning up for mis one thirty mine one
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: thirty two. But they're public eighty nine percent of tickets,
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: only eighty four percent of the cash public as usual
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: doesn't want anything to do with the White Sox, But
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: I mean I would probably lean to the White Sox
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: side slightly, even though I don't think Burke is the
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: better picture over Cantillo, just because the value, Like, just
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: because of the number, it looks like maybe taking that
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: home underdog makes a little bit more sense. Kids SITDNY.
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: Minnesota is gonna be one of my players, so I'll
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: skip it for now. Mets Milwaukee is a good matchup here.
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee won three to two yesterday. Milwaukee remains really hot. Man.
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: I'll give Milwaukee the bullpen edge in this game, and
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: I think the bullpen usage was a little bit less
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: on Milwaukee side yesterday as well. Yeah, they used two
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: relievers and were off the day before that. Both teams
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: were off the day before that, but Mets used four relievers.
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: We'll give the bullpen edge to Milwaukee. I think at
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: this point we'll give the offensive edge to Milwaukee, even
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: though they have a couple of injuries there and starting pitching.
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: Have to give that to Milwaukee as well, because the
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: Mets haven't decided on a starter, so they might be
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: going with a bullpend game. Meanwhile, Tobias Myers is making
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: his return for the Brewers. I believe here. His numbers
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: aren't good this year four point three ERA, one point
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: six to one WHIP, but in such a small sample
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: size the season, and he might have been injured. And
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: then he's been injured. So I'm gonna put more weight
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: into last season when he made starts for almost an
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: entire season and had a three RA and one point
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: one to seven WHIP and had a really good strikeout
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: walk ratio. He was not walking a lot of guys
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: last year, so I think Myers.
• 39:59
  Speaker 2: Does have something.
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: He missed a couple of months this year and he
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: wasn't doing that well. Actually, he came back and I
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: think he made relief appearances, which is why I haven't
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: talked about him, because he's been in two games in
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: July so far, and then I think they decided to
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: rest him a little bit and get him ready to
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: rejoin the starting rotation. And now that's what we're gonna
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: get here. He did only make it five innings once
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: so far this season, but last year he was doing
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: it pretty regularly, So at some point we're gonna see him,
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: I think, ramp up back to what he was last year.
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: I think last year is a better indicator of what
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: he is than what he's done so far this season.
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: The Mets have twenty six career at bats against him,
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: only three hits, eight zero strikeout walker as yo one
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: to fifteen batting average, three to eight ops. Some Myers
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: has done well against the Mets. I would lean to
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: on Milwaukee in this game. They're down for minus one
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: fifty one forty eight, but I think they have a
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: slight edge at the very least across the board here
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: in every aspect of this game.
• 40:52
  Speaker 2: So that is the way that I would lean.
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: Here is the price.
• 40:58
  Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know.
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: The price might be a little bit too from Milwaukee,
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: but that's the way that I would lean probably a
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: maybe looking at a run line or something like that.
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: Cubs at Saint Louis, As I said, surprising, Saint Louis
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: got the win yesterday in the return home spot, facing
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: Matthew Boyd. They still won. They got a couple of
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: runs off of Boyd and then tagged more on against
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: the Cubs bullpen. More On. More On was me for
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: being on the Cubs there? I should have just not
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: gone with it just because I don't like these public
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: road favorites, but I thought the Cubs had all the
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: edges in the game. Man. Cubs still have the same
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: edges today for the most part. They have the better bullpen.
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: They're a little bit more rested than Saint Louis as
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: far as the bullpen, as far as what they used yesterday.
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: So you got to give those edges of the Cubs.
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: Cubs have the better offense, probably have the better bullpen.
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: And it's debatable which one of these starters is better,
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: because I don't really like either starting pitcher very much.
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: But when you look into the matchup numbers, I think
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: probably you give the edge to the Cubs as well.
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: With Colin Ray on the mound, even though he hasn't
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: been I don't find it to be very impressive. I mean,
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: he was looking really good early on this season, but
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: I told you he was gonna regress, and that has happened.
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: Four point two to three ern the season, one point
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: three to two WHIP not good numbers, especially the whip.
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: He's been slightly better on the road four point one
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: to two ran the road, failed to make it five
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: innings in his last two starts, giving up six earned runs,
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: across eight and two thirds innings, giving up a wopping
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: fourteen hits across that stretch, did have six strikeouts and
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: two walks. That walk number isn't high, but still he's
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: been struggling a bit man, and he gave it five
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: earned runs to Kansas City to start before that. You
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: can maybe give him a pass for a bad start
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: against a good Milwaukee lineup, but he had a bad
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: start last time out against Baltimore as well, so he's
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: definitely gone a bit out of formed after he had
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: a few good starts in a row. He's not pitching
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: well right now, but he does have good numbers against
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis and fifty two at bats and only nine
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: hits eleven to six strike at walker ratios, a few
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: too many walks, I guess, but one seventy three batting
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: average allowed in five h nine ohps. Surray may be
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: able to bounce back here because he does at least
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: have decent numbers against Saint Louis. Andre Polonte for Saint Louis,
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: has similar numbers in ERA and whip wise four point
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: five to seven e RA, one point three to two whip.
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: Polonte not a guy that I really like nothing personal, man,
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: just I don't like the way he pitches four point
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: three to nine y ra at home, so he's been
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: a little bit better at home. He is coming off
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: two outings in a row where you gave hup two
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: or fewer runs, went twelve total innings, two combiner and
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: runs allowed against Miami. I mean he shut out Miami
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: and one hit them for seven innings, which is impressive,
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: but Miami not a good to offense, and the three
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: starts between bad offenses in Pittsburgh and Miami, he did
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: poorly in all three of those starts. In the middle
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: there only went five innings last time and against San
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: Diego though I did say he only allowed two in runs,
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: but he did walk three guys. So he's not exactly
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: in the greatest form right now. I wouldn't saying he's
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: facing a really good Cubs line up here. In fifty
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: eight at bats, he has a ten to seven strike
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: a walk ratio against them, three to ten batting average
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: at a nine oh two OPS, so he doesn't have
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: very good numbers against the Cubs. So I will lean
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: to the Cubs in this game. For all those reasons.
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: I think they actually have the edge kind of across
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: the board here. They're gonna be public again eighty seven
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets, they do have ninety four percent of
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: the cash. You're getting a bit of a cheaper price
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: on them this time with Saint Louis at minus one
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: oh five, which does look misleading. It again looks way
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: too easy to take the Cubs here, but I would
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: probably do that if I was gonna play the game,
• 44:26
  Speaker 1: or I would just pass it. Philadelphia at Texas. Texas
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: has the better bullpen over Philadelphia. Philadelphia beat them up
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: yesterday and though man Christopher Sanchez had a really good
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: start and Merrill Kelly did not do well in his
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: second start for Texas, so Philadelphia I believe won the
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: game nine to one or something like that.
• 44:44
  Speaker 2: Phillies didn't use a lot of their bullpen yesterday.
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: It was a blowout, so not a lot of bullpen
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: usage for either team really, But we'll give the bullpen
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: edge to Texas in general, just because they do have
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: the better bullpen. Philadelphia obviously has the better offense though,
• 44:56
  Speaker 1: which kind of balances out as far as the starting
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: pitching matchup. Though, the starting pitching matchup to me looks
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: like it's pretty heavily in favor of Texas. I mean
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: I like Texas starter in this game a lot more
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: than I like Phillies, which is Jesus Lizardo Lozardo, excuse me.
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: Four point three to two ERA. This year one point
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: three to five Whip started pitching significantly worse after a
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: hot start to the season, though he has been pretty
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: good on the road three point three six ERA on
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: the road and facing a week offense like this in
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: a pitcher friendly park might actually be good for him.
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: He actually has kind of returned to form over his
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: last couple of starts, which were also against bad offenses.
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: White Sox Baltimore had eleven strikeouts in one walk across
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: thirteen innings. They're only allowed seven hits and three earned
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: runs combined. So he is pitching better in his last
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: two starts he was. He had a really really rough
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: stretch where hitters were definitely able to figure him out
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: for at least a while there. His numbers against Texas
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: are kind of all over the place, and it's a
• 45:51
  Speaker 1: small sample size twenty two at bats, which these small
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: sample sizes can lead to some kind of wonky numbers.
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: Ten strikeouts to three walks, He has a really high
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: strikeout rate against them, two twenty seven batting average. That's
• 46:03
  Speaker 1: all good, but he's allowed three on runs them, so
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: in nine to fifty six ops is quite high. Two
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: of them are from Garcia, though, and then one from Sieger,
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: so kind of the usual suspects there. So Lozardo a
• 46:15
  Speaker 1: little bit tough to figure out how to kind of
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: reach into his numbers against Texas. Maybe you just shouldn't
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: and maybe you should just say, well, he's in better form.
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: Texas isn't the greatest offense, so maybe he'll do well here.
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: I still think Jacob de Gram for Texas is the
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: more trustworthy pitcher. I mean, he's been really, really excellent
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: throughout basically his entire career and including this year two
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: point eight ERA point nine four WHIP one point nine
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: one ERA at home, he's been really good. Although he's
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: out of for him right now. He's struggled his last
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: two starts. He let five and runs in each start,
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: both on the road against Anheim, but then in Seattle,
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: a pitcher friendly park, he did not do well there.
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: Strikeout rate was still pretty decent, with thirteen strikeouts over
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: that stretch of ten and a third innings, but he
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: did walk four guys just in that great I give
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: up five home runs across that stretch. He's actually giving
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: up ten home runs since the start of July, so
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: the home runs have actually heard him. Surprisingly, three home
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: runs allowed at Seattle.
• 47:10
  Speaker 2: That's a little bit bizarre.
• 47:11
  Speaker 1: I mean, the home run ball has been kind of
• 47:13
  Speaker 1: his weird U one negative this year. Really will he
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: bounce back facing a really good Philly lineup? I don't know.
• 47:20
  Speaker 2: He does have pretty good numbers against him.
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: Philly has certainly seen him because he was in the
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: NL East I believe, not that long ago, right, he.
• 47:26
  Speaker 2: Was on the Mets. Yeah, up until twenty twenty two
• 47:30
  Speaker 2: against the Phillies.
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: One hundred and seventy two at bats, seventy to fourteen
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: strike a walk ratio though it's a very good strike
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: on walk ratio two twenty seven average a lot six
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: to sixty nine ops. So he does pitch well against
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: this Philly lineup generally, although Lozardo is in the better
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: form recently though, So how do you attack this game?
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: I mean, I still I would kind of lean to
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: Texas in the game. I think they have the pitching edge.
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: I still like their starting pitcher better and their bullpen better.
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: They're down for minus one thirty five to minus one
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: thirty one, fifty percent taket nine percent of the cash
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: on Texas. The totals really low, down from seven and
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: a half to seven. So the oddsmaker's telling you.
• 48:06
  Speaker 2: They think this is gonna be a pitching duel, which
• 48:08
  Speaker 2: I wouldn't really disagree with.
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: The public coming in heavily on the over ninety three
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: percent all the tickets, ninety eight percent of cash on
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: the over, which is a little bit odd, probably not
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: an accurate number really there, so I would slightly lean
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: to the under. Yeah, the under there. I don't really
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: trust Philly's bullpend though, so Texas I would lean to
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: them slightly as well. But I'm worried about the recent
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: form of these two pitchers here not being in favor
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: of Texas. Colorado at Arizona Arizona won yesterday. I mean
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: not really surprising because Colorado is bad. Although I thought
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: Arizona might not be in a great headspace there, and
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: I didn't necessarily think Arizona was the greatest look in
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: that game. Arizona does still have the better offense, even
• 48:49
  Speaker 1: though they traded some guys away. Colorado, they're historically bad, man,
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: they're putrid. Arizona as bad as their bullpend is, they're
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: probably the better of these two bullpends. So I think
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: Colorado has some metrics that are actually the worst in
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: all of baseball now. Bullen wise, Colorado used fewer of
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: their relievers yesterday, though not by much. So you gotta
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: give Arizona the offensive edge and the bullpen edge. Probably
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: you gotta give the starting pitching edge to Arizona as well,
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: as far as their pitcher is the better pitcher. But
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: digging into the numbers, it's a little bit questionable. Blaylock
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: is pitching for the Rockies. He's a young guy still
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: maybe has some potential. Numbers this year look awful obviously,
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: seven point six eighty R, one point sixty six whip.
• 49:28
  Speaker 2: That's bad.
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: He's been bad of course field, though away from course
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: field he actually has a three ERA, which is way
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: better obviously, so he's been way better on the road.
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: His last couple of roads starts are actually quite good.
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: He uh give up one e run combined across eleven
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: to two thirds innings, and those two starts not really
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: striking out a lot of guys though, so his strikeout
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: rates not high. Last start, he walked four guys against
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: a bad Pittsburgh lineup and got bombed for seven e runs.
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: I unfortunately gave out Colorado in the first five innings
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: in that game because I thought Blaylock might actually do
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: decent for once in that game. Was not to be.
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: He was bad. He continued to be really bad at home,
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: so he's not really in the greatest form. Surprisingly, he
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: does have good numbers against the d Backs though, though
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: it's only in thirteen at bats. They only have two
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: hits off him, two strikeouts, no walks, four average three
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: eighty five obs. So maybe Blaylock will deliver a decent
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: performance here, although Arizona that's a very hit or friendly
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: park as well, so we will see Arizona's got Eduardo
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: Rodriguez on the mountain. He's the guy who I think
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: has better stuff than what his numbers look this year
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: five point five to three ERA, one point sixty six whip.
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: I know he's trying to come back from I believe,
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: like Tommy John or something like that. So that can
• 50:40
  Speaker 1: definitely hurts some guys, especially when they're in their thirties,
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: like Erotis hasn't been that good this year, man. He's
• 50:46
  Speaker 1: been pretty much the same home and away, not great.
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: His wildness has really been a concern. Man. His strikeout
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: rate has been okay, but he's in wild walking a
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: lot of guys multiple walks now in four straight starts.
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: He's been kind of alternating good bad starts, and that
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: would mean a start would be bad this time out.
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: Had a decent start at that terrible A's Stadium last night,
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: which is at least a decent sign that he's pitching
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: okay in like bad ballparks. His numbers are bad against
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: the Rockies, though in forty one at bats seven zero
• 51:15
  Speaker 1: strike a walk ratio is good for him, but three
• 51:17
  Speaker 1: seventeen average allowed, seven thirty two oh ps. Those are
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: not good numbers, so don't really know if we could
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: trust eros. So surprisingly, Blaylock actually has the matchup the
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: better matchup numbers in this game, which definitely surprises me.
• 51:32
  Speaker 1: Arizona's down for minus two thirty to minus two thirteen,
• 51:35
  Speaker 1: so the money lines dropped on them seventy four percent
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: of tickets ninety eight percent of the cash on them
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: could look to maybe take Colorado on the run line
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: in the first five innings. I would not want any
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: part of their bullpen. But maybe somehow Blaylock gets the
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: better US start than not erod here in this specific matchup.
• 51:51
  Speaker 2: Possibly. I'm not sure I.
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: Would disagree with an over either, even though the money
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: looks like it's disagreeing with it eighty percent of tickets
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: only sixty three percent of cash on the over total
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: has gone up slightly from nine to nine and a half. Though,
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: I mean, both bullpens are pretty untrustworthy. Both starters could
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: potentially be untrustworthy as well, so maybe that's the way
• 52:10
  Speaker 1: you look my Red Sox at San Diego. The Red
• 52:13
  Speaker 1: Sox beat up Nick Povetta yesterday. Man big win for
• 52:17
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox yesterday, ten to two. They're having to
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: face some good pictures in this series out of the Padres.
• 52:23
  Speaker 1: Man Padres are definitely better at home than on the road,
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: pretty significantly so, and the Red Sox aren't that great
• 52:28
  Speaker 1: on the road. But Man, Red Sox beat up San
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: Diego yesterday ten to two. I don't want to have
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: faith in the Red Sox, man, but they're playing pretty
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: well as of late. Red Sox used more relief pitchers yesterday.
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: The san Diego.
• 52:42
  Speaker 2: I believe, yeah, san Diego will use two relief pitchers.
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: San Diego has the better bullpen, even though the Red
• 52:47
  Speaker 1: Sox pen isn't that bad. San Diego does have a
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: bullpen edge in this game Red Sox. I'll give the
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: offensive edge to the Red Sox, but looking at the
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: starting pitching, it looks like San Diego should have the
• 52:58
  Speaker 1: better starter here King Againstito. King is definitely the better pitcher.
• 53:02
  Speaker 1: But Giolito apparently the Red Sox pitching coaches figured out
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: something wrong with his mechanics. Like I guess he's coming
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: back from Tommy John surgery and I guess he changed
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: his motion or something, and they somehow were able to
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: figure out something to get his motion to be more
• 53:18
  Speaker 1: like it was before the surgeries. And he's starting to
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: pitch better. His numbers on the season are good three
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: point five seventy RRA, one point one to nine wif
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: he's been good on the road three point one round
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: the road, and this is a pitcher friendly park too.
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: He's coming off giving up one on run each and
• 53:32
  Speaker 1: two straight starts against Houston, which is a decent offense
• 53:35
  Speaker 1: in Minnesota, not a very good offense. He did a
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: struggle against Chicago and Philly. The Cobs in Philly in
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: the two games prior to that. Those are good lineups.
• 53:44
  Speaker 1: But overall he's definitely pitching a lot better than he
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: was earlier this year. Two good starts in a row.
• 53:48
  Speaker 1: Now only a nine to three strike a walk ratio.
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: He's not striking out a lot of guys, but he
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: only allowed two hour and runs over those fourteen innings.
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: That's not bad man up against the Padres. They've seen
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: it decent amount of him because I think he was
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: in the National League right, No, Actually, I don't know
• 54:05
  Speaker 1: how will he barely He was on Washington very early
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: in his career. He was mostly on the White Sox.
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: I do remember that, but for some reason I thought
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: he was like on the Dodgers or something. So I
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: don't know how he has this many at bats in
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: his career against San Diego one hundred and two at bats,
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: but he has a twenty to six strikeout walk ratio
• 54:19
  Speaker 1: against him, a one ninety six average allowed and five
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: point fifteen ops. So Gilito does have good numbers against
• 54:26
  Speaker 1: the Padres. Michael King pitching for the Padres here, he's
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: been really good, which I like that because the Yankees
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: got rid of him and now he's a really good
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: bitcher for San Diego two point five nine ERA, one
• 54:39
  Speaker 1: point oh two whip on the season. He was good
• 54:41
  Speaker 1: before he went down this year, but he's been off
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: for a long time. He was good at home two
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: point one to one ERA, but he hasn't pitched since May.
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: Prior to that, though, he'd allowed no more than three
• 54:51
  Speaker 1: hundre runs in any start on the entire season, but
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: he wasn't going deep into most starts. He was going
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: a little bit more than five innings and most of
• 54:58
  Speaker 1: his starts because he's such a the strikeout rate pitcher
• 55:01
  Speaker 1: that he doesn't go that deep.
• 55:03
  Speaker 2: Man, he throws a lot of pitches.
• 55:05
  Speaker 1: His one struggle I guess his comp if you will,
• 55:09
  Speaker 1: is that he walks too many guys. He's definitely a
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: hard thrower. He strikes guys out, but he walks too
• 55:14
  Speaker 1: many guys. He's not that good against the Red Sox though,
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: in forty two at bats, fourteen to two strike a
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: walk ratio is good. But the Red Sox have seen
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: him a little bit and three ten batting averages what
• 55:26
  Speaker 1: they have off him seven ninety three ohps so I
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: would kind of lean to the Red Sox first five
• 55:32
  Speaker 1: innings here, man, because you don't know what you're gonna
• 55:34
  Speaker 1: get out of King when he first comes back. Although
• 55:36
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox are the public team right now seventy
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: nine percent of tickets, only seventy seven percent of the cash,
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: because the Red Sox have been better than the Padres
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: have as of late. So I don't really want to
• 55:46
  Speaker 1: take a public road underdog like the Red Sox are
• 55:49
  Speaker 1: here San Diego down for MI one forty one thirty
• 55:51
  Speaker 1: nine King. I mean, I do like to play on
• 55:54
  Speaker 1: guys more often than not when they come back from
• 55:56
  Speaker 1: the injureless because you know they've made reabs starts. They're
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: usually excited ready to go, especially on a contender like
• 56:02
  Speaker 1: San Diego, and King being a veteran and being a
• 56:05
  Speaker 1: good pitcher, he probably will be ready to go. But
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: the matchup numbers look like maybe you get some value
• 56:10
  Speaker 1: on Gilito on the Red Sox early in the game
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: in the first five innings. I would not do it
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: in the full game, though full game Padres have the
• 56:17
  Speaker 1: better bullpen. I think the tide kind of shifts towards
• 56:21
  Speaker 1: San Diego in the full game total is fairly low.
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: It's up from seven and a half seven and a
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: half with juice on the over, but eighty eight percent
• 56:27
  Speaker 1: of tickets on the over percent of the cash on
• 56:30
  Speaker 1: the under. I could definitely see the arguments for this
• 56:33
  Speaker 1: being an under. A pitching duel there red Sox bullpen
• 56:37
  Speaker 1: uses is a little bit high for my liking, although
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: the bullpen is decent, so maybe the under makes sense.
• 56:42
  Speaker 1: I will skip Toronto La because that's my other play
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: that I have listed in the title here, and Tampa
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: at Seattle. Like I said, Tampa blew the game against
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: Seattle in the eighth inning Seattle three run eight dinning
• 56:53
  Speaker 1: yesterday to steal that game. Seattle's now won five games
• 56:57
  Speaker 1: in a row. Seattle a lot of bullpen usage, though,
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: because they had to play the day before that, so
• 57:03
  Speaker 1: Tampa still might have a little bit of a rest edge.
• 57:04
  Speaker 2: Because they didn't play on Thursday.
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: Seattle only used two relief pitchers yesterday, that'll kind of
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: give their bullpen a little bit of rest. Tampa also
• 57:11
  Speaker 1: only used two though, and didn't play the day before that,
• 57:14
  Speaker 1: so Tampa, I would say, still has a bullpen edge
• 57:17
  Speaker 1: in this game.
• 57:17
  Speaker 2: Seattle has the better offense.
• 57:19
  Speaker 1: The starting pitching is two young guys that like could
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: do well in any given start, but could also not
• 57:26
  Speaker 1: do well.
• 57:27
  Speaker 2: Joe Boyle for.
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: The Rays good numbers on the season two point three
• 57:30
  Speaker 1: e RA point eight eight whip worst on the road
• 57:33
  Speaker 1: though four point three eighty R on the road, surprisingly
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: because the Rays have a pretty hitter friendly ballpark at
• 57:39
  Speaker 1: home and this is a pitcher friendly ballpark here, though
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: he hasn't pitched in this stadium yet.
• 57:43
  Speaker 2: He's not going deep into games.
• 57:45
  Speaker 1: Though, man, I think he was coming out of the bullpen,
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: and he's gone at most five innings. So he did
• 57:49
  Speaker 1: go five shutout innings last time out against the Dodgers,
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: walked two guys though only two strikeouts, so Boyle, I mean,
• 57:56
  Speaker 1: he's still walking too many guys here, so I'm a
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: little bit concerned with that. He's not allowing a lot
• 58:00
  Speaker 1: of hits though, so he's tough to hit, so he
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: could potentially do well here. The Mariners only four guys
• 58:06
  Speaker 1: have seen him before. They're one for four, often with
• 58:08
  Speaker 1: two walks and a strikeout, so he is fairly unfamiliar
• 58:11
  Speaker 1: to the Mariners. So maybe Boyle will have an okay
• 58:13
  Speaker 1: start in this game. Probably won't be going that deep though.
• 58:18
  Speaker 1: And then Logan Evans pitching for Seattle. He's a young
• 58:20
  Speaker 1: guy that does have some upside, but his number is
• 58:22
  Speaker 1: not great this year four point three e R one
• 58:25
  Speaker 1: point four to one whip better at home as most
• 58:27
  Speaker 1: Seattle pitchers are three point zero three ERA at home
• 58:32
  Speaker 1: last time out, three strikeouts, no walks, three on runs
• 58:34
  Speaker 1: a lot against Texas, a weak Texas lineup. But he
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: kind of bounced back after a bad start at the
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: A's stadium, but we know that a stadium.
• 58:42
  Speaker 2: Very tough to pitch in.
• 58:43
  Speaker 1: His worst starts were at the A's and at the Bronx,
• 58:45
  Speaker 1: which are difficult stadiums to pitch in man and fairly
• 58:49
  Speaker 1: difficult offenses to face. Tampa has no track record against Evans,
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: so he at least hasn't seen them before, so that
• 58:56
  Speaker 1: might be a little bit of an extra edge to Evans.
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: There very very dificult to gauge this game, man. The
• 59:01
  Speaker 1: money is coming in towards Tampa though fifty eight percent tickets,
• 59:04
  Speaker 1: only fifty six percent of the cash on Seattle's already
• 59:07
  Speaker 1: down for minus one one twenty two. So if you
• 59:09
  Speaker 1: want to resort to a market read there. It looks
• 59:12
  Speaker 1: like Tampa getting professional money again as an underdog there.
• 59:17
  Speaker 1: If I was gonna do that, yeah, I mean I
• 59:20
  Speaker 1: could see doing that actually, because I do think they
• 59:21
  Speaker 1: have the bullpen edge too, So yeah, maybe that's a
• 59:24
  Speaker 1: slight lean to Tampa in that game.
• 59:26
  Speaker 2: And then they didn't get it done yesterday.
• 59:29
  Speaker 1: Let's go to best Bets now and then I'm just
• 59:31
  Speaker 1: gonna briefly hit on NFL preseason because I do have
• 59:34
  Speaker 1: to get out of here as well. Best Bets. I'm
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: gonna give out two plays today, Charles, what's up? Man?
• 59:39
  Speaker 1: I know I'm really early today because I gotta go
• 59:41
  Speaker 1: to the friggin dentist, which is gonna suck.
• 59:45
  Speaker 2: Good morning to you as well, man.
• 59:47
  Speaker 1: Kansas City money line full game is the first play
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: that I'm gonna give out today. I think this is
• 59:52
  Speaker 1: a good starting pitching a matchup to look for case
• 59:56
  Speaker 1: in this game. Where are we looking here? I hear
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 1: it is waiting. Yeah, there it is that they've flipped
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 1: already from plus one oh nine to minus one twenty
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 1: five year though we see sixty two percent of tickets
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 1: on them as seventy two percent of the cash coming
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 1: out of Minnesota. I don't buy those numbers, man. I
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 1: actually think the initial market move was actually the right move,
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 1: even though sometimes just a false move early in baseball,
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 1: and then you want to look at the cash percentage later.
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 1: But it might switch around because this is the night game, man.
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 1: I think Kansas City is the right play to make here.
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 1: Hopefully you can still get a decent money line price
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 1: on it. If it starts coming back the other way,
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 1: you might get a better price on Kansas City. But
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 1: I see this being the right way to go, man.
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 1: I mean, Kansas City is technically still in the race
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 1: here in Minnesota sold off at the break, so they're
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 1: out of it at this point, man h. Kansas City
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 1: then therefore has the motivational edge, right, so they still
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 1: have more to play for here. I know Minnesota one
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: yesterday with Joe Ryan on the mount, so Kansas City
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 1: might want to bounce back from that as well. Kind
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 1: of an ugly performance from them yesterday, mostly because of
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 1: Seth Lugo. Thanks a lot, Lougo.
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 2: Minnesota.
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 1: I don't think as the best bullpen either. I mean
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 1: they traded away their closer. They did use three relievers
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 1: yes today. Kansas City also did. But Kansas City's a
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 1: little bit more rested than Minnesota is they do have
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 1: the better bullpen. Yes, Minnesota has the better offense, but
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 1: it's not by that much. So I'm looking at mostly
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 1: pitching here, and I think the starting pitching is a
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 1: big edge to Kansas City. So you could go first
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 1: five innings with Kansas City as well, but you're paying
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 1: a little bit more for it. So I figured because
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 1: they also have the bullpen edge, in my opinion, I
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 1: would go full game on this instead. Noah Cameron pitching
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 1: for the Royals. I mean, even though he's a rookie,
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 1: I would argue he's their best pitcher right now. I mean,
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 1: I think boo bitch might be heard or something. I
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 1: think Cameron is probably their best pitcher. Two point six
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 1: eighty RA, one point zero one whip on the season,
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 1: really good, slightly better on the road to two point
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 1: four ran the road is coming off only having one
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 1: strikeout against Toronto and all like four and runs, so
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 1: it's not the greatest start for him. Kansas City had
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 1: won four starts in a row prior to that. For him,
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 1: though he was alternating shuts with games were allowed like
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 1: a couple of runs. He's only allowed four or more
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 1: and runs three times all season, and one was at
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 1: the Cubs, one was against the Dodgers, so we're talking
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 1: about really good and the Yankees was the other one.
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 1: So we're talking about the best lineups that he faced.
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 1: He struggled against them. Minnesota is not one of those offenses.
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 1: Minnesota has four hitters who has seen him before, but
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 1: they're only one for twelve off him a double from Jeffers.
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 1: They got five strikeouts, no walks, is an eighty three average,
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 1: two fifty ops and the rest of the guys are
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 1: unfamiliar with camera and so you got a young, talented
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 1: pitcher and Cameron fairly unfamiliar to the opposing hitters. I
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 1: think that's the way you gotta go here. Up against
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 1: Bailey Ober, who has really been struggling for the Twins, unfortunately,
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 1: because I have liked this guy in the past, but
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 1: five point three eighty RA, one point four to one
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 1: whip terrible numbers for Ober. He's a little bit better
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 1: at home four point eight to ninety RA. He was
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 1: dealing with some injuries as well, so he actually just
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 1: came back. He was really bad prior to his injury.
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 1: Along seven are in runs and three out of the
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 1: four starts before going down.
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 2: Minnesota has actually.
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 1: Lost eight starts in a row of his including the
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 1: one start when he came back. His home run issues
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 1: are still an issue. He's allowed multiple home runs in
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 1: four of his last five starts, five of his last six,
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 1: actually terrible. Gave up two more against Cleveland four and
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 1: runs in five inn He's not a great start for
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 1: him there, although four to one strengle walk ratio wasn't
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 1: that bad, but his walk rate has never really been
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 1: the problem. He gives up hard contact, he gives up
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 1: home runs, and his numbers against the Royals, as bad
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 1: as they are offensively, are not good in one hundred
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 1: and sixteen at bats, so they're way more familiar with him.
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 1: Sixteen to seven strengle walk ratio, three to zero, two
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 1: average allowed in eight sixty seven ops. So Ober definitely
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 1: at the disadvantage here. So Kansas City is the way
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 1: we're gonna go in that game, a full game, he
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 1: get a better price on it. I still like they're
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 1: bolt being a little bit. Yeah, well it's it's just
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 1: a cleaning this time. But I'm worried about what they
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 1: might find. Man, you know, I'm older now, so I'm
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 1: definitely concerned about that. So we might have a really
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 1: bad visit in the future, which it really suck. But yeah,
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: you could go first five innings if you want to,
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 1: with Minnesota as well, and then to finish it off,
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 1: we're going Dodgers first five on the run line half
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 1: a run, so they do have to be leading after
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 1: five innings. It's the better price though, at minus one fifteen,
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 1: because I don't want to lay like minus one fifty
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 1: or whatever on the Dodgers here, but I think they're
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 1: the right side, especially early in the game. They're up
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 1: for minus one sixty to minus one sixty three here,
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 1: ninety two percent of the cash on them, but fifty
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 1: seven percent.
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 2: Of tickets coming in down on Toronto.
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 1: I think public perception of this is the Toronto top
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 1: team in the Al East, like that they can compete
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 1: with the Dodgers, which yeah, they can, but in this matchup,
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 1: I just don't like it at all. Man. Yeah, Toronto
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 1: has been playing pretty well. The Dodgers did win yesterday
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 1: five to one. Generally, yes, Toronto has the better bullpens.
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 1: That's why I'm taking the bullpens out of the equation.
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 1: Toronto only used three relief pitchers yesterday. The Dodgers also
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 1: used three, So we'll avoid the bullpens here because Toronto
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 1: has the better bullpen. Dodgers have the better offense, though
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 1: in their it is really good at home. I think
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 1: they're the highest scoring home team in all baseball. So
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 1: we're gonna be backed by that at least here. And
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 1: I'm looking at the starting pitching matchup, and I think
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 1: LA has a big edge here. Man Chris Bassett. I
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 1: know he's shown signs of pitching really well here, but
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 1: he's kind of an older dude that kind of like
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 1: he just throws a lot of different fastballs with a
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 1: lot of different movement. He doesn't throw that hard, and
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 1: I think he's starting to kind of lose it a
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 1: little bit. Man four point one two e are a
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 1: one point three to one whip. His whip has been
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 1: kind of too high all season, and he's been much
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 1: much worse on the road six point four or five
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 1: r in the road. So if you want to fade Bassett,
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 1: you want to do it on the road, which is
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 1: where he is here. He's coming off walking three guys
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 1: against k C even though he went six inning. He's
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 1: a one hit, one run ball there. It wasn't the
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 1: greatest start for him. The prior to starts. He gave
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 1: up six earned runs and three earned runs against Baltimore,
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 1: not a good sign, but he got rocked by Baltimore
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 1: and the Yankees.
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 2: He can give him a pass for that.
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 1: But he also gave up ten hits the start before
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 1: that against San Francisco, So he's kind of faltering a
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 1: little bit here though. StrEG a walk ratio has actually
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 1: been decent over the last month. But I don't trust him.
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 1: And against this Dodger lineup that's pretty heavy hitting, he
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 1: hasn't been good and ninety one at best three zeroa
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 1: at average allowed nine to weight oh ps twenty five
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 1: to nine streke a walk racio, So I don't trust
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 1: Bassett here up against Blake Snell. Snell, I mean, he's
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 1: been basically injured all season. Man, he's one of the
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 1: components of the Dodgers. Dodgers are getting their guys back
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 1: in the rotation. Man. They got Glass no back, snell
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 1: Is back down. These guys have been really, really good
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 1: in the past. I think snell Is gonna be back
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 1: to his usual form at some point here. Man, even
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 1: though he's bouncing back from injury. Usually he walks too
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 1: many guys, but he's virtually unhittable, and that's basically his thing.
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 1: Uh three point two one ERA this year one point
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 1: six to four whip, I understand is really really bad,
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 1: but he's better at home. He has a two ERA
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 1: at home, although I know it's a very small sample size.
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 1: He pitched really early in the season, had one bad
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 1: start against Atlanta, went on the shove. Actually he walked
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 1: four guys in each of those starts, which wasn't good.
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 2: Went on the shelf.
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 1: But he's made one start since coming back, and he
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 1: had eight strikeouts, no walks against Tampa, went five innings,
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 1: did allow.
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 2: Three on runs on two homers, but it was at that.
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 1: Weird Steinbrenner Stadium that's very home run conducive. So I'm
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 1: not gonna take that much away from that. But he
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 1: pitched pretty well. Man. The fact that he had that
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 1: many strikeouts in that few walks, that shows me he's
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 1: back in command. Man. I think he is back ready
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 1: to go, and he has pretty good numbers against Toronto
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 1: and thirty nine at bats nine to five strike out
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 1: walk ratio not great again, he walks too many guys,
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 1: but two fifty six average six forty nine oh ps.
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 1: So I'm gonna trust Snell. I don't trust LA's bullpens.
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 1: We'll take them out of the equation. We'll go Dodgers'
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 1: first five inning run line in that one. And that's
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 1: the second of the two plays that I have NFL preseason.
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna talk about every one of these games,
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 1: but I will just briefly mention the games where the
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 1: line has just moved out of control here, which are
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 1: the Jaguars up from one and a half to four
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 1: here now they're taking the money as well against the Steelers.
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 1: The Steelers are not playing Aaron Rodgers in this game.
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 1: The Jaguars are going to play Trevor Lawrence at least
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 1: early in this game. So that's why the line is
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 1: where it is. They're Jags playing their starting quarterback there,
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 1: and they have a new coach there, so they want
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 1: to get used to the system there with Duval Liam
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 1: Cohen there. Don't know how that's gonna work out, although
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 1: I actually think the Jaguars could bounce back this year
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 1: in a really bad division. But if you want Jags,
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 1: I mean these totals in preseason, as I mentioned, are
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 1: all way way low, as I've talked about on the show.
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 1: So when the line has kind of moved out of
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 1: control and you're not getting any more value in there,
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 1: and you know that that like starting quarterback is gonna
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 1: be in that game and the offense is going to
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 1: be trying in that game, I would look to play
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 1: that team's team total over so Jags, and then the
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 1: Broncos are the other one there. They flip from plus
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 1: one and a half dog to a seven point favorite
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 1: here at the forty nine ers. I think all these
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 1: games are probably being played at these teams home stadiums. Obviously,
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 1: the Broncos would never be a seven point five favorite
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 1: at the forty nine ers unless there was something going
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 1: on here. Again, that line has moved too far. There's
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 1: no way you can lay a touchdown with the Broncos.
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 1: But low total again thirty four and a half. The
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 1: other games is thirty six or whatever. I would look
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 1: to play the Broncos over their team total. They're gonna
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 1: be playing bon Knicks, They're playing their starters, and this
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 1: is the Greenlaw game because Broncos have dre greenlawn out
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 1: whatever his name is. Was one of the best defensive
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 1: players for the forty nine ers for a while. He's
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 1: been dealing with injuries though, but he is on the
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 1: Broncos and I have no idea if he's gonna play
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 1: in this game. But the Broncos with Sean Payton, he's crazy.
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 1: They're saying they're gonna play their starters here. I guess
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 1: they want to get bon Nicks some more reps there,
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 1: so he will be in this game early at least.
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 1: And the forty nine ers are not playing their starters,
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 1: so that's what's going on there. That's it for today.
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 1: Man again, my plays baseball Kansas City Royals minus won
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 1: twenty money line and first five inning run line on
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 1: the Dodgers.
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 2: That's it. It's gonna do it.
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 1: Everybody, have a good day today. Learn a toad on
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 1: Twitter and on Instagram. Better off dead obviously, like subscribe,
• 1:10:01
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• 1:10:04
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• 1:10:08
  Speaker 1: as well. Covered in you because my ukulele YouTube Channe,
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 1: which I gotta get the short people cover that I
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 1: put on Twitter yesterday. I gotta get that up at
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 1: some point maybe later today or something on YouTube, so
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 1: check that out on patreon dot com. Learn to toe it.
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 1: I should put a banner up for it'll. Maybe I'll
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 1: get that done as well. You can get bonus uke
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 1: content at least a Spotify feed and prioritize requests.
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 2: That's gonna do it.
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 1: Everybody, have a good day because I probably won't be
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 1: YouTube man, Charles, have a good day, thanks for hanging out. Everybody,
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 1: have a good week at everybody, and peace for now.