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The Favorites - MLB Opening Day Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

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1:20
Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.
1:24
Speaker 1: I'm Shad Mellman, Chief Content Officer oh the Action Network.
1:30
Speaker 1: We are days away from opening day from Major League Baseball.
1:36
Speaker 1: I mean, who doesn't get that little tickle in their
1:39
Speaker 1: stomach when we get close to Major League Baseball and
1:42
Speaker 1: the first pitch. I know Simon Hunter does because I've
1:46
Speaker 1: gone to a Major League Baseball game with Simon Hunter
1:49
Speaker 1: was one of my greatest joys. And he is my
1:53
Speaker 1: co host. He is my bff, he is my companion,
1:55
Speaker 1: he is my compadre. He is a professional BETTERI I'm
2:00
Speaker 1: in Hunter, Hello, sew him in. Hello Chad. What a
2:06
Speaker 1: sports weekend, brother? I really there's a few times where
2:10
Speaker 1: you're just just basking it. You literally just turned the
2:12
Speaker 1: phone off and all you're doing is just watching tons
2:14
Speaker 1: of sports, and with March Madness, with even the World
2:19
Speaker 1: Baseball Classic. Honestly, I can't believe how much fun that's been.
2:22
Speaker 1: The last two weeks. It makes the pain of football
2:26
Speaker 1: being over a little easier because you got great hoops,
2:29
Speaker 1: you got NBA, you got hockey, and like I just said,
2:33
Speaker 1: World Baseball Classics. So that was a nice I know
2:35
Speaker 1: that some fans are split on the World Baseball Classic
2:38
Speaker 1: because their players are getting hurt. I just think that's
2:41
Speaker 1: part of baseball on to me. I love it as
2:43
Speaker 1: a little pregame warm up to the MLB season. So
2:46
Speaker 1: I don't know about you, but I really really enjoyed
2:49
Speaker 1: this year of the World Baseball Classic. I thought it
2:51
Speaker 1: was awesome, and I thought you just did a professional
2:54
Speaker 1: job leading into our topic for today, which, of course
2:59
Speaker 1: I know you love this podcast because you are a
3:03
Speaker 1: makes money every year. Were also you're sort of under
3:09
Speaker 1: the radar massive baseball fan, and I've been to the
3:13
Speaker 1: Phillies games with you. Obviously Philly fans are just crazy anyways,
3:17
Speaker 1: But our podcast today is one of our favorites of
3:21
Speaker 1: the NFL offseason. We got Sean Zarrillo, we got Anthony D.
3:25
Speaker 1: Bundo to Action Network baseball experts on the show today.
3:31
Speaker 1: I want to remind everybody you got to listen to
3:34
Speaker 1: Path Pitch the Action Networks Baseball Podcast. We've got Thursday
3:38
Speaker 1: and Friday episodes this week for opening Day. Once the
3:43
Speaker 1: season begins, we're doing it every Monday, Tuesday, and Friday,
3:49
Speaker 1: and before Zarillo comes on. And I got to spend
3:52
Speaker 1: time with both Anthony and Zaillo this past weekend. We
3:56
Speaker 1: had a big event in New Jersey. They were both
3:57
Speaker 1: there as we're as was Anthony's mom. It's great of
4:01
Speaker 1: her to show up at the bar. But let's give
4:05
Speaker 1: Zarrillo a little props before he even comes on. I
4:07
Speaker 1: want to read some of the bets that Sean Zarrillo
4:11
Speaker 1: that he probably gave us last year. I know he
4:13
Speaker 1: gave you some of these because you bet a lot
4:15
Speaker 1: of them. Last year. He had Aaron Judge Al MVP
4:20
Speaker 1: twenty five to one, cashed, Julio Rodriguez of the Mariners
4:25
Speaker 1: nine to one, Ale Rookie of the Year cashed, Sandy
4:28
Speaker 1: Alcantara twenty five to one, Cy Young Marlin's cashed Phillies
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Speaker 1: NL Pennant twenty to one cash. He also came a
4:39
Speaker 1: whiskers breath Cash Schwarber to lead the league in home
4:44
Speaker 1: runs fifty to one, finished second Phillies to win the
4:47
Speaker 1: World Series. Obviously, came this close forty to one last year.
4:54
Speaker 1: This work gets interesting and we'll talk some of this today.
4:57
Speaker 1: Last year's Sean Zarrillo's projections for wind totals went nineteen
5:03
Speaker 1: ten and one. More accurate like the people who do projections.
5:09
Speaker 1: When I say these next three brands that do it,
5:16
Speaker 1: Zarillo was more accurate than Zips projections, Davenport projections, Pacoda projections,
5:24
Speaker 1: fucking Pacoda, Simon, he beat Pacoda. What do you guys
5:29
Speaker 1: say to that? Finally we took down the machines. Chad
5:33
Speaker 1: our hero we true needed. Shaun was our hero. So
5:36
Speaker 1: everybody go read Shawn's MLB previews. There are two of
5:40
Speaker 1: them are out now. He's got team futures out right now,
5:42
Speaker 1: he's got player prop projections. He's got more coming later
5:44
Speaker 1: this week. Shan Zarrillo, Anthony du Bundo long introduction, Welcome
5:50
Speaker 1: to the Favorites Podcast. Baseball's almost here. Huh, Anthony, you're
5:56
Speaker 1: in your phillies Jersey right away? Tell me right now,
6:00
Speaker 1: Phillies over under eighty nine wins. I'd probably have to
6:05
Speaker 1: go under. I'm wearing my Reese Jersey Reese goes down
6:08
Speaker 1: with an acl Last week, it feels like a big
6:10
Speaker 1: balloon was forming over the Phillies this season after the
6:12
Speaker 1: big October run, but people forgot they were only an
6:15
Speaker 1: eighty seven win team last year and they have some
6:18
Speaker 1: major question marks, not just at first base now, but
6:20
Speaker 1: the starting pitching has taken a big hit depth wise.
6:23
Speaker 1: So I would go under Sean since we got Simon
6:26
Speaker 1: on the podcast and he's a huge Philly wait for
6:29
Speaker 1: it fanatic. Yeah, the Phillies went to a little under
6:34
Speaker 1: one of my favorites in the National League, one of
6:36
Speaker 1: my favorites in baseball this season, even before the Reese
6:38
Speaker 1: Hoskins injury, before the Andrew Painter injury, the top pitching
6:42
Speaker 1: prospect in baseball who's expected to give them a boost
6:44
Speaker 1: this year. Obviously, as you mentioned in the intro, which
6:47
Speaker 1: I appreciate, the Phillies my favorite long shot bet last season.
6:51
Speaker 1: My opinion on them hasn't really changed. If they make
6:53
Speaker 1: the playoffs, they're gonna be dangerous. But in terms of
6:55
Speaker 1: having depth to get to the playoffs, guaranteeing themselves a
6:57
Speaker 1: playoff spot, Ryce Harper not coming back likely till mid season,
7:01
Speaker 1: and coming off of an injury where it may sap
7:03
Speaker 1: is powered, there's a lot of reasons to be down
7:05
Speaker 1: on the Phillies this season, on top of the recent
7:07
Speaker 1: injuries they've had, so definitely a win total underbet for
7:10
Speaker 1: me probably down to about eighty eight wins after the
7:13
Speaker 1: Reese Hoskins injury. That said, if they make the ploffs,
7:16
Speaker 1: they're still gonna be just as dangerous as they were
7:18
Speaker 1: last year, but they're win total one up by a
7:20
Speaker 1: couple of wins, and I don't see them as any
7:22
Speaker 1: more talented coming into this season than they were last year.
7:24
Speaker 1: All right, Well, listen, we got to MLB Opening Day
7:26
Speaker 1: coming up this week, and so it's a good time
7:28
Speaker 1: to remind people as they've been hearing me talk about
7:31
Speaker 1: game Time all offseason long. In the last episode, in
7:36
Speaker 1: the episode before that, game Time is the fastest growing
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Speaker 1: ticketing app in the US. I love game Time, honestly,
7:43
Speaker 1: I do. I use it all the time. And if
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Speaker 1: you're looking to get out to a pro or college
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Speaker 1: game this week, or even a concert, Gametime has amazing
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Speaker 1: last minute deals on tickets to all of these. I'm
7:55
Speaker 1: actually going to open a game Time app right now
7:57
Speaker 1: from my house and lo and behold look what I see.
8:00
Speaker 1: I can get into Yankee Stadium for opening Day against
8:04
Speaker 1: the Giants for eighty four bucks. How easy is that?
8:08
Speaker 1: No matter where you live, download the game Time app,
8:12
Speaker 1: get out and have some fun this week. You deserve it,
8:14
Speaker 1: and you can redeem code favorites for twenty dollars off
8:16
Speaker 1: your first purchase. Terms apply again. Just download the app
8:20
Speaker 1: entwer code favorites for twenty dollars off. Download Game Time Today,
8:23
Speaker 1: last minute tickets, lowest price gear Rount. I feel like
8:30
Speaker 1: we got to get a little organized here, Simon. So
8:34
Speaker 1: I know what I want to know. I want some
8:38
Speaker 1: season win totals. They just gave us one for the Phillies.
8:41
Speaker 1: I know how much you love like the future player
8:46
Speaker 1: prop projections. So we're gonna get into World Series futures.
8:50
Speaker 1: We're gonna get independent futures. We're gonna get into season
8:53
Speaker 1: win totals. But before we do that, Simon, ask away
8:57
Speaker 1: on the player prop projections. Whichever one's you want to
9:00
Speaker 1: know about. Well, I'll go boring first. I just reading
9:04
Speaker 1: through Shawn's article like the last couple of days, it
9:07
Speaker 1: really stands out you really love the Braves this year,
9:09
Speaker 1: and I know they're obviously the best team last year.
9:12
Speaker 1: How do you project out a team like that that
9:14
Speaker 1: it was so disappointed in the playoffs. They're bringing everyone back.
9:17
Speaker 1: I mean, you could argue that Braves are better this
9:19
Speaker 1: year than they were last year. That you still think
9:22
Speaker 1: in that division where the Mets have gotten better. I mean,
9:25
Speaker 1: I hate to say, but I do think that Phillies
9:27
Speaker 1: have gotten better, just because I like this coaching staff.
9:30
Speaker 1: The coaching staff to have Lasher it took him to
9:32
Speaker 1: the World Series. I think it's light years I had
9:35
Speaker 1: of what they had last year going to the season.
9:36
Speaker 1: So to me that the nlast is really strong. I'm
9:40
Speaker 1: just insure to hear Shawn's projection here. I know he's not,
9:43
Speaker 1: you know, going crazy with the over under on Atlanta,
9:46
Speaker 1: but you do like them to win the division, and
9:47
Speaker 1: you like them a couple of other player prop bets.
9:50
Speaker 1: So I'm just in sure to hear Shawn's view on
9:52
Speaker 1: Atlanta and if Anthony agrees with Shawn's view on Atlanta,
9:54
Speaker 1: because to me, it seems like they're far and above.
9:57
Speaker 1: You know, once again, it's them. It feels like it's
9:59
Speaker 1: them that dodge where they're kind of the most talked
10:01
Speaker 1: about two teams heading into the season. Yeah, So in
10:05
Speaker 1: terms of teams who are likeliest to make playoffs, teams
10:08
Speaker 1: who have the highest upside projection in terms of just
10:12
Speaker 1: being there at the end making the dance. The Braves
10:16
Speaker 1: are at eighty five percent if you combine the projections
10:19
Speaker 1: from Fangrass and Dakoda. That's higher than any other team.
10:21
Speaker 1: The Yankees are at eighty two and a half scent,
10:24
Speaker 1: The Potteries are at eighty percent, and the Astros are
10:27
Speaker 1: also at eighty percent. That's the only group that Dodgers
10:30
Speaker 1: are in there as well. So those five teams all
10:33
Speaker 1: at eighty percent are above but amongst them, the Braves
10:38
Speaker 1: are actually the most mispriced, because the Braves should probably
10:43
Speaker 1: be around six fifty to make the playoffs, and you
10:48
Speaker 1: can get them as low as minus five hundred. I
10:50
Speaker 1: think it's because their division is so strong. But something
10:54
Speaker 1: we've talked about a lot on our Payoff Pitch podcast
10:56
Speaker 1: is the schedule being different this year. The NL Central,
11:00
Speaker 1: these teams are all playing their divisions less, which means
11:03
Speaker 1: the NL Central teams and the ALE Central teams, who
11:06
Speaker 1: have generally been weaker advanced less than the playoffs than
11:08
Speaker 1: these other divisions in recent years, they're going to get
11:11
Speaker 1: fewer games against each other and more games against the
11:13
Speaker 1: West and the East, and that does not bode well
11:16
Speaker 1: for the NL Central or ALE Central. I have a
11:18
Speaker 1: difficult time seeing those divisions getting more than one playoff team.
11:21
Speaker 1: It's possible, certainly on the Twins are actually a team who,
11:25
Speaker 1: based on the odds, may be worth a bet around
11:27
Speaker 1: possible in fifteen to make the playoffs, because there's actually
11:30
Speaker 1: projections that have them closer to fifty fifty five percent.
11:32
Speaker 1: So regardless of that, and you know, the middle of
11:36
Speaker 1: the table, at the upper echelon of the league, there
11:39
Speaker 1: are only certain teams who have both the depth and
11:41
Speaker 1: the top end talent to sprint their way through the season,
11:46
Speaker 1: get a big lead, get a buy, get to the playoffs,
11:48
Speaker 1: and comfortably have their starters rest for the end, compared
11:53
Speaker 1: to the teams are in the middle of the back
11:54
Speaker 1: up the fight all the way through. The difference between
11:56
Speaker 1: the Braves and the other teams at the top is
11:59
Speaker 1: player development. You saw Michael Harris Spencer Strider basically come
12:04
Speaker 1: from nowhere on the oddsboard last year for rookie the
12:08
Speaker 1: year one hundred to one plus each. Harris not even
12:11
Speaker 1: listed to finish one two in the race, and they
12:14
Speaker 1: have more pitchers this year. We're competing for backend rotation spots.
12:18
Speaker 1: Had no issue sending Ian Anderson back down to the
12:21
Speaker 1: minor leagues to try to get him a little bit
12:23
Speaker 1: better to who he was a key part of their
12:25
Speaker 1: rotation when they made the World Series around a couple
12:27
Speaker 1: of years ago. So the Braves back end of the rotation,
12:31
Speaker 1: the way that they have all these first round picks
12:33
Speaker 1: where they're constantly juggling and adding new pitches too, I
12:36
Speaker 1: trust their player development more than I do any other organization.
12:39
Speaker 1: On top of the math, it just says for me
12:41
Speaker 1: that I like them a few wins better than the
12:44
Speaker 1: market does. I like the Mets and the Phillies slightly
12:46
Speaker 1: less than the market does. So all that adds up
12:49
Speaker 1: to me to making the Braves about sixty percent to
12:51
Speaker 1: win their Division one fifty at plus they were plus
12:55
Speaker 1: one forty. After the Diaz injury, they dropped down to
12:58
Speaker 1: about plus one fifteen, and then I think after the
13:00
Speaker 1: Hoskins injury they move closer to even money. So you've
13:02
Speaker 1: seen the market adjusts relative to the injuries for the
13:05
Speaker 1: Mets and the Phillies in favor of the Braves. But yeah.
13:08
Speaker 1: I mean since the midpoint of last season, the Braves
13:10
Speaker 1: have been my favorite team in baseball, in my best
13:13
Speaker 1: protected team in baseball. Fangraphs has basically carried the same opinion.
13:16
Speaker 1: Pacoda is lower on the Braves and higher on the Mets.
13:19
Speaker 1: But I'm happy to see that it's not just me
13:21
Speaker 1: who've used the Braves as the best team in baseball,
13:23
Speaker 1: not only from the depth perspective, but in terms of
13:26
Speaker 1: the star talent they have. Like they lose Danzy Swanson,
13:28
Speaker 1: but they didn't get a full season from a Kunie
13:30
Speaker 1: last year. I expect Matt Wilson to take another step forward.
13:33
Speaker 1: Ausi Albi is coming back. So they lost a little
13:36
Speaker 1: bit of production, but I expect them to replace it
13:38
Speaker 1: in different ways. And just the number of outs they
13:41
Speaker 1: give themselves too, with player development, how deep their bullpen is.
13:44
Speaker 1: It's a very difficult team. But the safety of betting
13:47
Speaker 1: the Braves now attend to one knowing they're going to
13:49
Speaker 1: make the playoffs, I think is why I like them.
13:51
Speaker 1: Pennant World Series. In addition to their divisional futures, they're
13:55
Speaker 1: just a very likely team to make the Deads. Yeah,
13:59
Speaker 1: I you know, ten to one for Ronald Acuna to
14:02
Speaker 1: win the MVP is my favorite bet for Atlanta. He
14:06
Speaker 1: wasn't very good in twenty one twenty twenty two. Rather,
14:10
Speaker 1: he had a pretty down year relative to his expectations,
14:12
Speaker 1: only a one fourteen w RC plus, so he was
14:15
Speaker 1: about twenty points lower than his projection, and he was
14:18
Speaker 1: battling that knee injury. He wasn't quite one hundred percent.
14:20
Speaker 1: So one hundred percent Ronald Kuna raises their ceiling even higher,
14:24
Speaker 1: and I think he has that at stark potential. He
14:27
Speaker 1: was stealing basis again, but he was complaining throughout the
14:30
Speaker 1: second half of the season that his knee wasn't quite right.
14:32
Speaker 1: He was in and out of the lineup, battling that.
14:35
Speaker 1: He hit a lot of ground balls. We've seen him
14:37
Speaker 1: unlock a lot more power in spring training this year,
14:39
Speaker 1: hitting more balls in the air, full offseason to get healthy.
14:42
Speaker 1: It's a huge difference. And they won the World Series
14:44
Speaker 1: without him too. I mean, we don't talk about it enough,
14:47
Speaker 1: but they literally won the World Series without their best player.
14:50
Speaker 1: They had him last year, he wasn't even a one
14:51
Speaker 1: hundred percent. If he's close to one hundred percent again,
14:54
Speaker 1: this team is the best in Baseball. I mean, look,
14:56
Speaker 1: I can't believe I teeth signing up to take the
15:00
Speaker 1: Lorie Bet of home run leader, and You're like, can
15:07
Speaker 1: we talk about the Atlanta Braves. I love it. I
15:11
Speaker 1: love I just love the info about it because to me,
15:14
Speaker 1: that's something that the normal fans not realizing is how
15:16
Speaker 1: good Atlanta is heading into the season. So I just
15:18
Speaker 1: wanted to get that off the top. I mean, I
15:20
Speaker 1: joke about it. I joked about it on our NL
15:22
Speaker 1: East preview that we did on Playoff Pitch. I've every
15:25
Speaker 1: year that I've bet baseball, I have bet the Atlanta
15:27
Speaker 1: Braves to win the division, and every year they have
15:29
Speaker 1: won the division pretty comfortably. Last year was a bit
15:32
Speaker 1: of a sweat. The Mets had a great first half.
15:35
Speaker 1: But the Mets, you know, regress a little bit, and
15:37
Speaker 1: I'm worried about their age profile. The Mets are the
15:38
Speaker 1: oldest team in the league. They have some questions at
15:41
Speaker 1: corner infield, third base, and corner outfielders are old. The
15:44
Speaker 1: starting rotations very old. So I'm worried about the Mets,
15:47
Speaker 1: especially now losing Diaz. And how you do the Braves
15:51
Speaker 1: signed big free agents. How often is talent coming from
15:53
Speaker 1: outside of their organizations, always internal. I know they lost
15:56
Speaker 1: Freddie Freeman traded for Madelson, like that's a one for
15:59
Speaker 1: one thing. By and large, all of their talent comes
16:01
Speaker 1: within their player development system, so we continue to underrate
16:06
Speaker 1: their ability to get the most out of the talent
16:08
Speaker 1: their organization. No, it's the old Phillies joke that Bobby
16:12
Speaker 1: Cox would just walk into a hospital and point to
16:14
Speaker 1: a baby and say that's a left fielder, that's the shortstop,
16:17
Speaker 1: that's a closer, and literally that's how it worked with
16:20
Speaker 1: Atlanta for about thirty years. So clearly he's still still
16:23
Speaker 1: helping out on their farm program. Who's gonna win the
16:27
Speaker 1: fucking home run title? Well? Do you won't? Do you
16:31
Speaker 1: want the real answer? Do you want some crazy odds
16:34
Speaker 1: because you're pick I means the board. You guys going
16:38
Speaker 1: to ask me about stat leaders this year? You know
16:40
Speaker 1: I've come on before and given out Blagger or Junior
16:43
Speaker 1: home run leader fifty to one, Shoreber last year, fifty
16:45
Speaker 1: to one. I do love those fifty to one vats, right,
16:47
Speaker 1: And I think it is a category where you speculate
16:50
Speaker 1: on Hall of Fame talent guys like Juan Soto, who
16:54
Speaker 1: if he just decides to start swinging more. Is he
16:57
Speaker 1: going to turn into Barry Bonds? He's gonna sacrifice walks
17:01
Speaker 1: for home runs at some point. I think it's gonna happen.
17:04
Speaker 1: Soto's twenty four, He's hitting his physical prime. So Soto
17:07
Speaker 1: at fifty to one to be home run leader, sure
17:09
Speaker 1: fire on that. Julio Rodriguez fifty one hormun leader. I
17:12
Speaker 1: know Anthony likes his home run total under, but I
17:15
Speaker 1: said on our podcast for prop bets, Julio is a
17:17
Speaker 1: kind of guy who you can justify based on projections
17:20
Speaker 1: betting his home run total under, but also based on
17:22
Speaker 1: stack cast metrics, justify betting him to lead the league
17:25
Speaker 1: in home runs because he has some forty home run
17:28
Speaker 1: forty steel seasons in his future. Very likely. Matt Olson
17:33
Speaker 1: sixty one just mentioned him. But the guy is yord
17:35
Speaker 1: On Alvarez RBI, home runs, runs scored, MVP across the board.
17:41
Speaker 1: Yord On Alvarez is my guy this season. He's the
17:43
Speaker 1: player I've allocated the most too in the futures market.
17:45
Speaker 1: It's three quarters of a unit. If he gets hurt,
17:47
Speaker 1: I'm not going to be devastated by any means. But
17:50
Speaker 1: based on his batted ball profile, his development arc is
17:54
Speaker 1: a hitter. This guy is the best bat in baseball
17:57
Speaker 1: and honestly one of the best bats received, maybe the
18:00
Speaker 1: best since Barry Bonds, the best outside of the steroid era.
18:04
Speaker 1: Hold On, hold on, I agree, all right, all right,
18:09
Speaker 1: quick agreement from Anthony that for a second, that is
18:12
Speaker 1: a massive statement, because what you just said about this
18:18
Speaker 1: guy is that you've put again you said, it's only
18:21
Speaker 1: three quarters of a union, but it's the most you
18:23
Speaker 1: bet on any individual bet and even do a player,
18:28
Speaker 1: and you're basically comparing him to Barry Bonds. I would
18:32
Speaker 1: like each of you to break that down to Bundo.
18:34
Speaker 1: You go first. Yeah, there was a point in the
18:37
Speaker 1: middle of last season where I was just kind of
18:39
Speaker 1: looking through his stat profile and one of the things
18:41
Speaker 1: I like to look at his plate discipline. So how
18:43
Speaker 1: much you swinging up balls and strikes? How good is
18:45
Speaker 1: your reading of the strike zone, because that's really what
18:47
Speaker 1: separates guys to take that next step. His swing percent,
18:51
Speaker 1: so the amount of times he swung at a pitch
18:53
Speaker 1: was exactly the same as the year before, but he
18:55
Speaker 1: cut his chase rate on balls by five percent and
18:58
Speaker 1: increased to swing rate on strikes by five set and
19:00
Speaker 1: I was like, holy shit, like that's like superstar level
19:02
Speaker 1: stuff to do that in one year. And we've always
19:05
Speaker 1: known how much raw power he has. I mean, if
19:07
Speaker 1: you watch him hit, he hits unbelievable homers. So with
19:11
Speaker 1: the result of that was his walk rate went up,
19:13
Speaker 1: his strikeout rate went down, his raw power and his
19:16
Speaker 1: contact quality was as lead has ever been the biggest
19:20
Speaker 1: thing with him his injuries. I mean, he had like
19:21
Speaker 1: a weird hand injury, wrist injury that kind of kept
19:24
Speaker 1: him out, and then his knees are not great, but
19:27
Speaker 1: they don't don't play him in the field as much too,
19:29
Speaker 1: so that does help him. But in terms of just
19:31
Speaker 1: like pure hitter, I will take him over one Toto
19:34
Speaker 1: and I will take him. I mean, he's the best
19:36
Speaker 1: pure hitter even an Aaron Judge as a lad as
19:38
Speaker 1: he is, does strike out a good amount, much more
19:41
Speaker 1: than Alvarez. It feels like he's, you know, he has
19:46
Speaker 1: Aaron Judge like qualities in that he's just huge. He's
19:52
Speaker 1: just the bat looks like a toothpick in his hands.
19:57
Speaker 1: We're starting to see some of these baseball players come
19:59
Speaker 1: up athletically that I don't think we've seen before O'Neil
20:04
Speaker 1: Cruz last year a six foot seven shortstop Ellie de
20:08
Speaker 1: la Cruz, who's going to come up for the Reds,
20:10
Speaker 1: is one of the most dynamic athletes that will ever
20:13
Speaker 1: step on a baseball field. Julio, we already talked about
20:16
Speaker 1: the athleticism coming into the game, in addition to the
20:19
Speaker 1: fact that baseball has modified the rules to increase the
20:24
Speaker 1: emphasis on speed base running. Obviously your Don does not
20:29
Speaker 1: fit into that profile. But the gargantuan nature of his size,
20:33
Speaker 1: in addition to the fact that he's so disciplined as
20:35
Speaker 1: a hitter, I think that's where the Bonds comes in
20:37
Speaker 1: for me. Not in any way, shape or form in
20:40
Speaker 1: terms of speed or defense, Barry Bonds as an overall
20:43
Speaker 1: baseball player far superior. I'm talking about pure hitting ability,
20:48
Speaker 1: ability to recognize balls and strikes, as Anthony said, and
20:51
Speaker 1: then his pure power, his in game power, both raw
20:54
Speaker 1: and in game power. Your Don is a freak. He's
20:58
Speaker 1: twenty five years old. That season that errand Judge put
21:01
Speaker 1: up last year he's going to have at some point
21:04
Speaker 1: if he stays healthy. He didn't pick up a bat
21:07
Speaker 1: until the final week is spring trade. This is the
21:09
Speaker 1: biggest concern here, but his odds relative to where he
21:12
Speaker 1: ranks in terms of his average expected production per playing time.
21:17
Speaker 1: I have him as the RBI leader in terms of
21:19
Speaker 1: RBIs per plate appearance. All of it aligns with his
21:23
Speaker 1: price points. Look at his stat cast page, He's in
21:25
Speaker 1: thee hundredth percentile for basically every key stat except for
21:29
Speaker 1: strikeout rate he's in the sixty third percentile. But that's
21:32
Speaker 1: just because he swings hard. He's looking for home runs.
21:35
Speaker 1: But in terms of what he's looking to recognize and hit,
21:38
Speaker 1: this guy is as good as Soto in terms of
21:41
Speaker 1: plate discipline. There's other guys who have better about to
21:43
Speaker 1: ball skills, but he is elite in terms of his
21:45
Speaker 1: plate recognition and adding the power on top of it.
21:48
Speaker 1: Those are the skills you covet. That's my elite player portfolio.
21:53
Speaker 1: Is that power and plate discipline together it's unbeatable. What
21:56
Speaker 1: are his current odds again right now? So for home
21:58
Speaker 1: run leader, I believe you're on is fourteen to one.
22:02
Speaker 1: I also bet him. I bet him RBI leader ten
22:06
Speaker 1: to one, and I bet him MVP at fourteen to
22:09
Speaker 1: one as well. So home run MVP both fourteen to one,
22:14
Speaker 1: have like a quarter unit on each of those, and
22:16
Speaker 1: then a little bit less on his RBI and runs later. Bets,
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Speaker 1: gambler dot net in West Virginia, Simon, I want to
24:16
Speaker 1: hear Dubundo's long shot, but Simon is beaming right now.
24:21
Speaker 1: I forget how much he loves this podcast and how
24:24
Speaker 1: much he loves baseball. I actually do want to ask Simon,
24:30
Speaker 1: why didn't you ever become a professional baseball better everything
24:33
Speaker 1: Zarrillo and Dbundo were talking about, like plays to all
24:36
Speaker 1: your interests in strengths and you love baseball other than
24:40
Speaker 1: the fact that you truly have no life for about
24:43
Speaker 1: seven months. It's in my when I first got into
24:48
Speaker 1: this world, especially where the old school was meeting the
24:51
Speaker 1: new school of the old school guys, they did some
24:54
Speaker 1: analytics and some stuff one computers, but they really didn't. Honestly,
24:56
Speaker 1: a lot of it was word to mouth spots like
24:59
Speaker 1: they knew different spots in baseball. When I got into it,
25:04
Speaker 1: there were just guys that were just older than me
25:06
Speaker 1: that they kind of had their own little group. I
25:09
Speaker 1: really couldn't get in that door for baseball. It really
25:11
Speaker 1: was tight knit. You know, it's different where you could
25:16
Speaker 1: say you won now about how baseball has changed so much.
25:18
Speaker 1: When I got in, you know, thirteen years ago, twelve
25:21
Speaker 1: years ago, baseball was nothing like it is now, especially
25:24
Speaker 1: betting wise. It's completely a different world. So people like
25:29
Speaker 1: Sean here that have got into it more recently are
25:32
Speaker 1: far better off. Than people have been in baseball for
25:34
Speaker 1: a long time. I mean, it's a huge advantage. Like
25:36
Speaker 1: he's talking about everything you can do now in the computer,
25:38
Speaker 1: the analytics. It's huge. So that's what it was making
25:41
Speaker 1: me smile. I was like, you know, he's talking about
25:44
Speaker 1: a guy here who obviously I would love for him
25:48
Speaker 1: to be at home and leader all these other stuff.
25:50
Speaker 1: I like when Sean came out here, give us like
25:51
Speaker 1: the fifty to one stuff, because that, to me is
25:53
Speaker 1: the such the unicorn stuff of baseball. It's like you
25:56
Speaker 1: have guys who are just one year, you'll have the
25:57
Speaker 1: ra Dickies. That's my favorite thing forever, the R Dickie.
26:00
Speaker 1: It's like you have a knuckleballer who's thirty eight years
26:03
Speaker 1: old somehow win the cy young. That's why we love baseball.
26:06
Speaker 1: That's why I love betting baseball. So m again, we're
26:08
Speaker 1: gonna talk about, like I want to talk about most wins.
26:11
Speaker 1: There's just a bunch of stuff that Sean puts out
26:13
Speaker 1: there that you're getting these crazy high odds that if
26:16
Speaker 1: Shan shits the bed this year, you miss on everything.
26:19
Speaker 1: You shouldn't care because Sean is already give you a
26:21
Speaker 1: crazy returning these last couple of years. So that's what
26:23
Speaker 1: it means. Where stick to it with baseball, Like Sean's
26:26
Speaker 1: gonna give you out every year. You want to play
26:28
Speaker 1: it every year, like you're not gonna know half to
26:30
Speaker 1: name Sean's talking about. That's what I love about baseball.
26:33
Speaker 1: It's just such a turnover. So to me, that's what
26:35
Speaker 1: the smile on my face. It's like, God, I can't
26:37
Speaker 1: wait b Opening Day, just all of it. I just
26:40
Speaker 1: love baseball. It's the it's the best. You know, it
26:43
Speaker 1: is Chad, the background noise of the summer. It's just
26:45
Speaker 1: always on the TV all summer. All right, Well, look,
26:48
Speaker 1: the Bundo wants his shot. The Bundo wants shot. He
26:52
Speaker 1: wants to give us a home run, long shot. Let's
26:54
Speaker 1: let's go baby Byron Buxton Minnesota centerfield or DH sixty
26:59
Speaker 1: to one. You can find him that high. Look. Buxton
27:03
Speaker 1: was having a ridiculous season, and the question with him
27:05
Speaker 1: is never how good is he? It's always can he
27:07
Speaker 1: stay healthy? The Twins are making an effort to keep
27:10
Speaker 1: him healthier. They went and signed Michael Taylor from the Royals.
27:12
Speaker 1: He's gonna, I think, play center field. Buckston's gonna DH
27:15
Speaker 1: more he's not stealing basses anymore, so they're trying to
27:18
Speaker 1: do everything possible. They're even load managing him at points
27:20
Speaker 1: last season. They're trying to keep him as healthy as
27:22
Speaker 1: possible because last year he played ninety two games. In
27:26
Speaker 1: twenty twenty one, he only played sixty one games. Twenty
27:28
Speaker 1: nineteen he only played eighty seven games. But at some
27:31
Speaker 1: point he probably will have a season where he gets
27:33
Speaker 1: lucky and stays healthy for the whole year, and when
27:36
Speaker 1: he does, he is an unbelievable slugger who's right up
27:39
Speaker 1: there with the top of the level guys. I mean,
27:42
Speaker 1: Zillo said he projected him sixth most home runs per
27:45
Speaker 1: plate appearance. He hit twenty eight homers in ninety two
27:48
Speaker 1: games last year. That's right below, right around a fifty
27:51
Speaker 1: home run pace. And his you know, he's been focusing
27:55
Speaker 1: more on hitting flyballs. He's been striking out a little more,
27:58
Speaker 1: but just trying to tap into his power as possible.
28:01
Speaker 1: That's the guy I want. So it's sixty to one.
28:03
Speaker 1: He'll probably hit twenty homers the first two months and
28:05
Speaker 1: then miss a month and it'll cost him. But if
28:08
Speaker 1: he can put together one healthy season, he's right up there.
28:11
Speaker 1: With the best in the league. All right, Simon, what
28:15
Speaker 1: are you gonna ask about wins? Were you asking season
28:17
Speaker 1: win totals or pitcher wins pitchers most wins? I just
28:20
Speaker 1: like that Sean right now is the shortest odds. He
28:22
Speaker 1: has his twenty five to one, So I like that
28:24
Speaker 1: that he has a bunch of guys here. We all
28:26
Speaker 1: have really good odds. So from Sean's perspective, I know,
28:30
Speaker 1: Anthony gat touch On here, there are any guys that
28:31
Speaker 1: really jumped out. I know you're kind of favoring your
28:33
Speaker 1: projectors here. We're just like, all right, we'll put Atlanta
28:35
Speaker 1: guy in there, just because I assume Elana hasn't have
28:38
Speaker 1: the most wins, So I'm interested here how Sean breaks
28:41
Speaker 1: down who how he projects out most wins for pitchers. Yeah,
28:44
Speaker 1: Garrett colebacks Freed Toad a top my projection lead at fifteen.
28:48
Speaker 1: They've kind of been the projected leaders the past two
28:51
Speaker 1: or three years, just based on the number of times
28:53
Speaker 1: they take the ball, the teams they play for, and
28:57
Speaker 1: how deep they both pitch into games, so they're around
28:59
Speaker 1: for a lot of decisions. Play for ninety plus one
29:01
Speaker 1: teams take the ball thirty two times a year, you're
29:04
Speaker 1: going to automatically project for around fourteen or fifteen wins.
29:08
Speaker 1: Freed is twenty five to one. I think he should
29:10
Speaker 1: be closer to twenty to one. So he is my
29:13
Speaker 1: favorite bet in that category. And then, as he mentioned, Simon,
29:15
Speaker 1: correlation relative to my Atlanta love, the fact that I
29:20
Speaker 1: project them as the best team in the league, that
29:22
Speaker 1: all aligns. So number of starts for Freed, the high
29:26
Speaker 1: number of starts for Freed on the best team all
29:29
Speaker 1: sort of aligning. You mentioned though, And I want to
29:31
Speaker 1: get into this before we run out of time. Players
29:34
Speaker 1: that nobody has ever heard of at long odds. That
29:38
Speaker 1: is what you're here for, Simon Yea. So let me
29:40
Speaker 1: offer you Bubba Thompson as the steals leader at fifty
29:42
Speaker 1: to one. He is starting in center field an opening
29:46
Speaker 1: day for the Rangers because their actual center field or
29:48
Speaker 1: Leoti Tavars is hurt. In the past five years or so.
29:52
Speaker 1: The major league steals leader the peak number of steals
29:56
Speaker 1: that they averaged per an average number plate appearances. That
30:01
Speaker 1: is what Bubba Thompson averaged in his brief major league
30:05
Speaker 1: stint last season. So he's already shown in about one
30:09
Speaker 1: hundred and fifty two hundred plate appearances that he can
30:12
Speaker 1: generate steals at a rate on par with the stolen
30:15
Speaker 1: base leaders from past seasons. He also stole sixty seven
30:19
Speaker 1: bags on seventy attempts and the majors in Triple A
30:21
Speaker 1: last season, which is about is high of a percentage
30:23
Speaker 1: I've seen for that many steals over the course of
30:27
Speaker 1: a season at that high of level of baseball. So
30:30
Speaker 1: if he just decides to steal every time he's on first,
30:33
Speaker 1: if they just pinch run him every game with these
30:35
Speaker 1: new rules, I can see a very similar season for
30:38
Speaker 1: Bubba Thompson is what John Birdie did for the Marlins,
30:41
Speaker 1: where he led the league in steals. I think it
30:43
Speaker 1: had forty steals in about four hundred plate appearances last season.
30:47
Speaker 1: If you get Bubba Thompson three hundred fifty four hundred
30:49
Speaker 1: plate appearances, he could absolutely get forty or forty five
30:53
Speaker 1: steals based on the rate that he was running last year,
30:56
Speaker 1: the rate that he ran to the minors, and the
30:57
Speaker 1: success rate that he had on those bags. Bobba Thompson
31:01
Speaker 1: one of the fastest players in baseball, but on top
31:04
Speaker 1: of that, probably the best pure bass stealer in baseball.
31:07
Speaker 1: There's guys like Corbyn Carroll, who is the best runner
31:11
Speaker 1: in baseball. He's the fastest guy. But there's actually better
31:14
Speaker 1: base stealers on Carroll's own team, Bobba Thompson. Stealing and
31:18
Speaker 1: speed aren't necessarily the same thing. There are instincts, timing,
31:22
Speaker 1: other things that go into that. So Bubba Thompson, I think,
31:25
Speaker 1: is going to be an elite bass dealer if he
31:28
Speaker 1: gets playing time. And he's getting a jump from opening days,
31:30
Speaker 1: so maybe he has a hot week. They keep sticking
31:32
Speaker 1: him in the lineup and he gets enough playing time
31:35
Speaker 1: to get in real quick. Did they change the pickoff
31:36
Speaker 1: rule now that you only get two attempts and then
31:39
Speaker 1: and then if you attempt the third time you don't
31:41
Speaker 1: get them, they get the next base. Does that count
31:43
Speaker 1: as a steal? I don't believe. I'm actually not sure
31:47
Speaker 1: how that would accounts as a back Yeah. Oh shit, yeah,
31:51
Speaker 1: so you're not gonna see though too many. I mean
31:54
Speaker 1: it's at that point like, yeah, they'll do They'll do
31:57
Speaker 1: two attempts and they just want to do the third. Right,
32:01
Speaker 1: you were just giving up the base at that point anyway,
32:03
Speaker 1: So you may throw the pitch and see if you're
32:05
Speaker 1: catcher can get them out all right, Bubba Thompson, We
32:07
Speaker 1: love that we got to get out of here in
32:09
Speaker 1: about five minutes because we've got tight time constraints today,
32:15
Speaker 1: which means I need from Zarrillo and I need from
32:19
Speaker 1: Dubundo your best season wind total over and your best
32:25
Speaker 1: season win total under each of you, Okay and Simon,
32:31
Speaker 1: then you will ask about their pennant and World Series predictions.
32:39
Speaker 1: Best dots. Zarrillo, go first, give me your best season
32:44
Speaker 1: win total over and your best season win total under.
32:48
Speaker 1: I like the Marlins over seventy four and a half wins.
32:50
Speaker 1: They have a ton of starting pitching depth. I know
32:52
Speaker 1: they signed Johnny Quato, don't love that because I wanted
32:55
Speaker 1: them to bring up Ury Perez is one of their
32:57
Speaker 1: top prospects. They added some offense who's a rise. They're
33:00
Speaker 1: finally starting to get a little bit more competitive. But
33:03
Speaker 1: just the starting pitching depth that they have on a
33:06
Speaker 1: game to game basis, I'm actually going to be betting
33:08
Speaker 1: on the Marlins a lot again this season. Hopefully they
33:10
Speaker 1: improve their bullpen because they blew a ton of games.
33:12
Speaker 1: If the Marlins over seventy four and a half, I
33:15
Speaker 1: like is my favorite over. My favorite under is the
33:17
Speaker 1: White Sox under eighty nine and eighty three and a half.
33:19
Speaker 1: I'm sorry. In addition to the Phillies under eighty eight
33:23
Speaker 1: or eighty seven and a half even that's fine as well.
33:27
Speaker 1: In terms of Pennant and World Series predictions, I'll give
33:29
Speaker 1: you my final four as I see it now. These
33:32
Speaker 1: teams are all futures that I bet Guardians and Yankees
33:36
Speaker 1: in the American League Wow, yes. And then we're gonna
33:40
Speaker 1: go with the Brazen Podres in the NL, so a
33:42
Speaker 1: bit more predictable. In the NL. I've talked a lot
33:44
Speaker 1: about the fact that the new rules helped the Guardians
33:46
Speaker 1: more than any other team. Tristan McKenzie, though, who's a
33:49
Speaker 1: starter that I liked as a cy young bet, is
33:51
Speaker 1: hurt for two months now. They lost their one of
33:54
Speaker 1: their top prospects due to injury. Bon Nailer, who's one
33:57
Speaker 1: of their other top prospects as a catcher. He'll be
33:59
Speaker 1: up later in the year. So given these injuries that
34:02
Speaker 1: the Guardians have, the fact that they should eventually peak
34:06
Speaker 1: later in the season, I think they're going to be
34:08
Speaker 1: dangerous in the playoffs. Their bullpen, they're going to have
34:10
Speaker 1: to play tight games, probably to overcome the astros of
34:13
Speaker 1: the Yankees. But yeah, I think the Guardians are going
34:16
Speaker 1: to be aided by the new rules as much as
34:17
Speaker 1: any team. Also like the Cardinals for a similar reason.
34:23
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, so we're talking new rules over on the
34:27
Speaker 1: Arizona Diamondbacks seventy four and a half wins. They were
34:30
Speaker 1: the worst team in baseball two years ago and they
34:32
Speaker 1: have steadily trended up considerably. They've had a bit of
34:34
Speaker 1: a youth movement. Urban Carroll is the National League Rookie
34:38
Speaker 1: of the Year favorite. He is going to be every
34:40
Speaker 1: day but player. He's the fastest player in baseball. They're
34:43
Speaker 1: more built to lean in on the new rules, I think,
34:45
Speaker 1: in the National League than any other team, like the
34:47
Speaker 1: Guardians in the American League. They have a trio of
34:49
Speaker 1: really interesting young pitchers. Only one of them will start
34:52
Speaker 1: in the rotation, Ryan Nelson, but Drey Jamison is waiting there.
34:55
Speaker 1: Brandon fott Is, I think you know, one of the
34:58
Speaker 1: three best pitching prospects in baseball. He's sitting in Triple A.
35:01
Speaker 1: So the minute that Bumgarner or Zach Davies start to falter,
35:04
Speaker 1: I think you're gonna see these guys come through. They
35:06
Speaker 1: have more team speed and a better defense than probably
35:09
Speaker 1: anybody in baseball. They were second and out's above average
35:12
Speaker 1: last year. Defensively, they have Alec Thomas, Jake McCarthy, Corbyn
35:15
Speaker 1: Carroll a ton of speed, so they're going to be
35:18
Speaker 1: able to lean in on the pitching, the defense, and
35:20
Speaker 1: the speed to win and get to about five hundred plus.
35:22
Speaker 1: Fewer games against the two mamos in that division will
35:25
Speaker 1: certainly help more games against the week American League. My under,
35:29
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with the Washington Nationals under fifty nine
35:32
Speaker 1: and a half wins, and I know it sounds crazy.
35:35
Speaker 1: My first pick was the White Sox, but Sean took it,
35:36
Speaker 1: so I'm gonna take the Nationals. They don't have a
35:39
Speaker 1: single player by the bat projections that is expected to
35:42
Speaker 1: be above average this season, not one player. Their best
35:46
Speaker 1: player is arc plus and he's a thirty year old
35:49
Speaker 1: triple A journeyman who had a breakout campaign last year,
35:52
Speaker 1: Joey Minesis. Other than that, it's a really bad lineup
35:55
Speaker 1: of retreads and I was somewhat interested in their pitching
35:59
Speaker 1: at first, but Mackenzie Gore has had some problems in
36:02
Speaker 1: spring training. Kankavali. Their top pitching prospect has to get
36:05
Speaker 1: Tommy John. They're starting Patrick Corbyn, who lost nineteen games
36:08
Speaker 1: last year on opening Day. I think this could be
36:10
Speaker 1: a next level of utility for the Nationals. They had
36:13
Speaker 1: a respectable lineup at the start of last season, then
36:16
Speaker 1: they lost Juan Soto, they lost Josh Bell. It was
36:18
Speaker 1: a triple A team. This is a triple A team.
36:20
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna take under fifty nine and a half
36:22
Speaker 1: on the Nationals. As for my World Series prediction, I
36:25
Speaker 1: agree with Sean on the Braves. I think they're the
36:27
Speaker 1: deepest team. I trust their pitching and their bullpens elite,
36:30
Speaker 1: and I think they're gonna get an Vpakunya, so they're
36:32
Speaker 1: gonna be my pick. Let's talk about Otani and Trout
36:35
Speaker 1: in the American League because I think I don't hate
36:37
Speaker 1: the idea of them as a long shot, and we
36:39
Speaker 1: just talked about this on our Player Props and long
36:41
Speaker 1: Shots episode. If they get to the deadline and they're
36:44
Speaker 1: in a position where they have any chance of really competing,
36:47
Speaker 1: moreno is looking about selling the team. How do you
36:50
Speaker 1: not go all in with Otani potentially looming with free
36:53
Speaker 1: agency here and try to make one run if they're
36:55
Speaker 1: in contention. They have a lot of bus potential. This
36:57
Speaker 1: is still the Angels, but they also you know, last
37:01
Speaker 1: year I said I thought the Angels make the playoffs
37:03
Speaker 1: because I liked their their depth behind Otani and Trout.
37:06
Speaker 1: Rndon got hurt. He's looked great in spring training at
37:09
Speaker 1: third base. But the difference between their depth this year
37:11
Speaker 1: and last year. Last year they bet on some young
37:14
Speaker 1: guys finally making that leap into you know, everyday major leaguers.
37:18
Speaker 1: This year they've actually gone out and spent money on
37:21
Speaker 1: actual everyday major leaguers like Geo Orshella, like Hunter Renfro,
37:25
Speaker 1: players who have proven track records. Brendan jury that can
37:28
Speaker 1: produce more behind these guys, and they have two starters
37:31
Speaker 1: in Sandoval, Patrick Sandoval and Reid Debtmer's that I'm pretty
37:33
Speaker 1: high on. So we know that we know the top
37:36
Speaker 1: end talents there. Maybe the depth is real this time
37:39
Speaker 1: and if they get in the playoffs, they're the kind
37:41
Speaker 1: of stars and scrubs team, kind of like the Phillies
37:44
Speaker 1: that could do a similar thing in an American league
37:46
Speaker 1: that's not quite as deep as the National League. All right, listening,
37:50
Speaker 1: are fifty to one to win the World Series. By
37:51
Speaker 1: the way, you guys have made Simon's day. I've never
37:56
Speaker 1: seen him take so many notes doing a podcast, smiling,
38:00
Speaker 1: make them bets, make them bets, chat bets as we speak.
38:04
Speaker 1: Great podcast, great information. Everyone's got to listen to payoff
38:09
Speaker 1: Pitch obviously Thursday Friday this week Opening Day episodes Monday
38:15
Speaker 1: Tuesday Friday during the season. Go read Anthony at Action
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Speaker 1: Network in the app online read Zarillo Action Network dot com. Amazing,
38:25
Speaker 1: amazing baseball analysts. They are inside the game like none other.
38:30
Speaker 1: Four Matt Mitchell for Simon Hunter. I am Chad Noman.
38:34
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38:36
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