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Why Nearly A Tenth Of Denmark's Labor Force May Disappear · Trumponomics

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Imagine a country where all the immigrants suddenly returned to
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  Speaker 1: their native land. Train lines under construction might have to
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  Speaker 1: come to a complete stop, Hotel rooms would go uncleaned,
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  Speaker 1: and worst of all, there would be nobody to make
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  Speaker 1: the bacon. No, it's not an episode of Black Mirror.
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  Speaker 1: It's a conceivable scenario today in one European country and
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  Speaker 1: potentially others. The big surprise, it doesn't even have much
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  Speaker 1: to do with immigration policy. Welcome to Benchmark. I'm Scott
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  Speaker 1: landman and economics editor with Bloomberg News in Washington, and
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  Speaker 1: I'm Daniel Moss, economics writer and editor at Bloomberg View
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  Speaker 1: in New York. So Dan, debates over immigration are royaling
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  Speaker 1: much of the Western world. Here in the United States,
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  Speaker 1: Donald Trump won the presidential election in part by promising
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  Speaker 1: to build a border wall and clamped down on illegal immigration.
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  Speaker 1: In Europe, similar kinds of sentiment helped fuel the Brexit movement,
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  Speaker 1: and in other countries there's been an influx of refugees,
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  Speaker 1: particularly from the Middle East, and that's fueling the rise
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  Speaker 1: of populist anti immigration parties. You know, immigration is a
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  Speaker 1: bit like trade. It's become a proxy for whatever people
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  Speaker 1: feel ales society generally, it often has nothing to do
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  Speaker 1: with the economic merits of the argument, something that we've
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  Speaker 1: definitely seen lately. And so the country we're actually going
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  Speaker 1: to talk about today is Denmark. Even with a tightening
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  Speaker 1: of immigration policy, their foreign workers have kept coming in
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  Speaker 1: and now account for almost one tenth of the country's
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  Speaker 1: labor force, with Eastern Europeans making up a good chunk
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  Speaker 1: of that. And yet their native countries such as Poland
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  Speaker 1: and Hungary are getting richer. People there can make more
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  Speaker 1: money and that is learning a lot of these migrants back.
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  Speaker 1: Joining us today to talk about this situation Asian is
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  Speaker 1: Karen Hagroup. She's the CEO of Danish Agriculture and Food Council,
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  Speaker 1: and she was previously the country's Justice minister, among other positions.
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  Speaker 1: She joins us by phone from Copenhagen. Karen, thanks for
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  Speaker 1: speaking with us on Benchmark. You're welcome. So let me
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  Speaker 1: get something out of the way. First of all, tell
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  Speaker 1: us a little bit about Denmark's famous bacon. Denmark's famous bacon.
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  Speaker 1: I think Denmark is a farming country. It's known to
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  Speaker 1: be a farming country. We have been working in the
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  Speaker 1: farming industry for many centrists, and we did something differently
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  Speaker 1: than lots of other countries because instead of competing against
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  Speaker 1: one another, we actually joined up and made corroboratives and
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  Speaker 1: we learned to share knowledge and know how with one
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  Speaker 1: another so that we could compete with the rest of
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  Speaker 1: the countries in the world. So we have in Denmark
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  Speaker 1: now for many minis centries have have a an export
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  Speaker 1: not only with bacon, butter or famous brands that is
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  Speaker 1: known well white and where we have very high food
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  Speaker 1: security and food safety and traceabilities, so that we have
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  Speaker 1: gained access to export markets around the world. But because
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  Speaker 1: we have worked together in this area for so long time,
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  Speaker 1: and because we are now also very highly acknowledged for
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  Speaker 1: what we do. Approximately twenty five percent of the total
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  Speaker 1: exports of goods from Denmark actually comes from the Danish
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  Speaker 1: agriculture and food sector. And what role do foreign workers
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  Speaker 1: play in this industry, They play a very significant role.
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  Speaker 1: The number of unemployed in denmarkus generally at a very
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  Speaker 1: low level, and in many parts of the country we
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  Speaker 1: already would have what what you would actually call full
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  Speaker 1: employment because we have so few people who are not
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  Speaker 1: in the workforce to begin with, that you could characterize
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  Speaker 1: it as full employment and in those parts of the countries,
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  Speaker 1: and those parts are often far away from the large diseases.
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  Speaker 1: That is where a lot of my companies are located.
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  Speaker 1: So that's the places where it's even more difficult to
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  Speaker 1: attract people to actually get to move there, to get
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  Speaker 1: them to take a job there. And that is where
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  Speaker 1: we have been very very fortunate with the foreign labor
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  Speaker 1: that we have been able to attract to Denmark because
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  Speaker 1: they have had the possibility of having a real high
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  Speaker 1: waves and also very very good job. So since two
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  Speaker 1: thousand and fourteen, we can see that the increase of
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  Speaker 1: the total labor force in Denmark for a big part
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  Speaker 1: of it actually has been because we have had a
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  Speaker 1: large increase of foreign labor, and of course in the
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  Speaker 1: food and agriculture sector we have had our share of
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  Speaker 1: those people. What kind of labor shortages are there now
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  Speaker 1: in the food and agriculture industries. It is in the
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  Speaker 1: DAIRYUS sector that we see the issues, but it is
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  Speaker 1: also in the agro industry. We have a large, large
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  Speaker 1: acro industry where they actually make the machineries that are
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  Speaker 1: needed in the in the processing companies and also in
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  Speaker 1: the farms. So it is also people who have high
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  Speaker 1: educations when it comes to using data to be just
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  Speaker 1: in a normal educated um plants where they can make
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  Speaker 1: things that are working together in a in a different
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  Speaker 1: way that they used to. So it is people with
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  Speaker 1: high education that we also need. Could the Danish agriculture
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  Speaker 1: industry be what it is today without immigrant workers, No,
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  Speaker 1: we couldn't if you look at it, and totally we
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  Speaker 1: employ more than two hundred thousand foreigners. They come from
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  Speaker 1: many different parts of the world, and they also have
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  Speaker 1: very diverse backgrounds and education and skills. But if all
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  Speaker 1: two hundred thousands of them tomorrow said we are going
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  Speaker 1: back to where we came from, the Danish Agriculture and
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  Speaker 1: Food Council could not produce what we do today, and
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  Speaker 1: we could not deliver what we do in the total
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  Speaker 1: export of goods from Denmark, which is approximately twenty five
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  Speaker 1: of the total goods from Denmark that comes from the
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  Speaker 1: Danish Agricols and food sator. So if the foreigners were
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  Speaker 1: to leave, we would be in a very bad position.
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  Speaker 1: Now we've reported that foreigners are leave thing not necessarily
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  Speaker 1: because of more restrictive immigration policies, but because their home
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  Speaker 1: countries are getting richer that wages are rising and that
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  Speaker 1: the wages in Denmark might not be so attractive relatively
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  Speaker 1: speaking as they were some years ago. Is this something
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  Speaker 1: that Denmark is able to fix or that your industry
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  Speaker 1: is able to deal with the people that comes from
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  Speaker 1: other countries and work in our factories. They would get
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  Speaker 1: the same pay as the Danish work force would do,
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  Speaker 1: and it is the same as you may know, the
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  Speaker 1: Danish model where we have a pay agreement, so it
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  Speaker 1: is still relatively competitive. If you see what a Dane
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  Speaker 1: would get foreigner working in Denmark would get compared to
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  Speaker 1: what they would get in the UK, it is maybe
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  Speaker 1: three times as much that they would get in Denmark.
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  Speaker 1: But what we are seeing now is that the growth
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  Speaker 1: rates in countries for instance like Poland, where we have
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  Speaker 1: had lots of our workforce coming from the growth rates
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  Speaker 1: in Poland last year in just the second quarter was
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  Speaker 1: about seven points seven presents in the processing industry, so
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  Speaker 1: relatively the vague wages are increasing and in countrys like
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  Speaker 1: Poland and of course, if you would like to go
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  Speaker 1: to Denmark to have a job and you have a
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  Speaker 1: family back home, you would have to make some sacrifices
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  Speaker 1: in your personal life. So it is relatively when does
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  Speaker 1: the balanced tip When is it's no longer attractive to
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  Speaker 1: maybe away from your family in daw or the week
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  Speaker 1: and then only be home in the weekends. So, of
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  Speaker 1: course this is an issue that we have to be
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  Speaker 1: very much aware of that the growth rapes in for instance,
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  Speaker 1: Poland are so high and other people in Denmark you
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  Speaker 1: might be attuned to this because of your political background,
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  Speaker 1: who look at this and say, hang on a second,
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  Speaker 1: shouldn't these jobs in an iconic Danish industry be for Danes. Well,
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  Speaker 1: you know, the situation is that we don't have enough
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  Speaker 1: labor force to take the jobs. If everyone were to
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  Speaker 1: go where they came from, we would just be a
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  Speaker 1: country with companies and with the farming industry that could
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  Speaker 1: not deliver. Because we deliver most of our goods to
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  Speaker 1: the export markets. Of course, our companies are very merriable
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  Speaker 1: reliance on if they can get the workforces they need,
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  Speaker 1: because then they could actually sell more. And if they
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  Speaker 1: can't sell more, then they're not competitive and when they
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  Speaker 1: match themselves up against other companies from other countries. So
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  Speaker 1: if we can't get the layed workforce with the label
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  Speaker 1: that we actually need, the companies will be less productive
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  Speaker 1: and they would be less attractive. So no, we do
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  Speaker 1: not have two hundred thousand people in Denmark without a job.
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  Speaker 1: We only have I think it's about four points two
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  Speaker 1: percent of people without a job in the current situation.
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  Speaker 1: And because lots of my companies are located in the
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  Speaker 1: in the countryside, these people that actually do not have
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  Speaker 1: a job in Denmark, they might live in the largest
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  Speaker 1: cities very very far away from my companies. So if
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  Speaker 1: I can't get the foreigners to come still being able
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  Speaker 1: to give them a relatively high income and pay for
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  Speaker 1: what they do, I would have a serious problem because
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  Speaker 1: there are not enough things without a job in Denmark
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  Speaker 1: to take over. And one last question current, this isn't
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  Speaker 1: just limited to the agriculture and food industries. I assume
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  Speaker 1: that with your background and your connections in politics and
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  Speaker 1: across other industries and other trade groups, that this is
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  Speaker 1: something that other people and other business leaders are probably
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  Speaker 1: talking about two right in the processing industry, in the
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  Speaker 1: construction industry, at the hotels and in special areas. This
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  Speaker 1: is an issue of very very high importance, and it
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  Speaker 1: is an issue that is not going to go away
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  Speaker 1: because if we do not get be able to have
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  Speaker 1: the workforce that we actually need, then Denmark is going
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  Speaker 1: to be a more poor country. And if you see
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  Speaker 1: the way that the wages are created in denmarketing is
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  Speaker 1: it is very different from other countries. So if you
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  Speaker 1: actually look at it, you can't say that these foreigners
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  Speaker 1: have come and they have taken jobs that Dange should
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  Speaker 1: otherwise have had. You cannot say that because foreigners have
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  Speaker 1: come than the development in the wages have been less
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  Speaker 1: or that the pay is bad. Um. Actually everyone is
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  Speaker 1: getting a higher income because the companies get more productive.
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  Speaker 1: The country's B and P is rising. So if the
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  Speaker 1: possibilities of getting the workforce that you need from other
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  Speaker 1: countries would disappear, then the country would all in total
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  Speaker 1: be more poor, and the wages would also drop for
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  Speaker 1: the Danish employees because the companies that they actually work
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  Speaker 1: at would be less productive. Karen hagger Up, CEO of
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  Speaker 1: Danish Agriculture and Food Council, thank you so much for
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  Speaker 1: joining us today. Well, thank you, yeah bye. Benchmark will
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• 10:51
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• 11:00
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• 11:05
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