Latest / Apex Insiders Podcast / Indycar Long Beach GP 2026 | Push to Cash Betting Preview
Transcript
- @f1capper: Apex insiders back live. We got the Long Beach betting preview. I got I Nate Rogers here and it seems like it's been an eternity, man. It's been only what? Couple weeks though since our last race, but we finally are here. We got Long Beach. I know that there the books have gifted us some odds early on, which is actually insane. It was like about a week and a half before and then now here we are. @iN8Rodgers: Crazy. @f1capper: I know Cesar's pulled their fun stuff again, which we'll talk about as well. But before we get started, you got our race preview. I think you posted it up, which I'd love to go into. yeah. @iN8Rodgers: Yeah, here we are at Long Beach, which, like he said, I mean... This time last year we would have been on our like fourth or fifth break, since IndyCar kind of spoiled us early on, this felt kind of weird to have three weeks off here, but back at it. Long Beach is a pretty historic race. A lot of people would say it's second to the Indy 500. I've never had the chance to attend, but I've heard it's just an incredible atmosphere and I have to make it out there someday. But it's, I think it's been around @f1capper: Yeah. @iN8Rodgers: once you include like the kart races and stuff it's three or four decades which is going to be one of the longest running street tracks that you know Indy cars ever had it's a 1.97 mile 11 turn street circuit And the track has a few of those infamous corners, I think, it turns three and four around the fountain, which aren't really that exciting, but make for a good viewing. It's easy on the eyes and kind of unique. ⁓ And then you have that really slow turn 11 hairpin where the broadcasts will talk about it this weekend a lot, where it's the slowest turn, I think, on the calendar. And you're really trying to set yourself up because that's coming into the long straight into turn one, which is the best passing opportunity. I'll touch on that a little bit, but ⁓ it's just a really unique turn of how they have to try to get that steering wheel turned, maybe even take a hand off the wheel, things like that. But that ends the lap and brings you into that ⁓ turn one there, which is a long straightaway. And right there at turn one is also pit exit. you're going to, it's kind of madness right there. And as we saw last year, the overcut was the kind of preferred strap. because Kirkwood kept going a lap later than Palo did and he was able to, as long as he had good pit stops, hold Palo behind him and then turns two through five are nice and slow around that fountain that allow you to build up a little tire temp without overexposing you to ⁓ getting past to someone that's already got their tire temperature going. ⁓ To get into the stats and trends that we've seen a little bit, Honda is dominating here. I think they sponsor the race, but also they've won the last three, four to the last five, and seven out of the last 10. A lot of that is going to come from Andretti. They've won five out of the last seven races here. To touch on Andretti a little bit. The Andretti cars have advanced to round two of qualifying in 18 and 21 attempts in the hybrid era. 13 of those 18 they've put into the Fast 6 and that's given them five poles in just seven races. So Andretti, I mean, we know they're strong on street circuits, but those stats really just show that they're setting themselves up nicely on Saturdays before race day. The pole sitter is only one here four out of the last 17 races, but All four of those have come in the last seven, so it's kind of trending more towards the front of the field and the pole setters able to control the race. Colton Herda is the the farthest back that shows statistically is one he was all the way back from 14th in 2021 and he's one of only four drivers to win from outside rows one and two. So 76 percent of drivers starting first through fourth have won the race in that span. Rows one and two also account for two-thirds of podium finishes over the last 10 races. In that same span only six drivers have managed a podium from outside the Fast Six so 80 % of our podium spots have been claimed by drivers starting in the Fast Six. @f1capper: Yeah, so that's exactly why Kirkwood is ⁓ what plus 250 plus 275 at most books. I mean that Andretti, obviously it shows that ⁓ it's got a really good setup when it comes to these street courses. Took on Arlington GP. We saw Power even, you know, talking about how he was struggling to start the season and really showed some good pace in Arlington. So that's also gonna... show up this weekend. ⁓ Obviously I'm an Ericsson hater, but he should technically do well here. So the odds are reflecting it, which I think might go right into ⁓ one of the early plays that you got in. I think it was when they first posted Lines. So yeah, let's talk about those outrides that you have. @iN8Rodgers: Yeah, MGM put odds out. Caesars was early too, but MGM out of nowhere. ⁓ had some things for us and I went ahead and jumped on all three in dreadies. I liked the odds but I was, I mean I just liked them. Those stats show why you would like them but I was pleased with the odds I got for the most part. Like I said I think before I would have really loved a 10 to one on Kirkwood like we got before Arlington but I don't think we'll ever see that again barring another mistake. So power was at 20 to one at the time, Erickson was at 30 to one and Rosenquist's a little flyer at 100 to one. Pretty nuts for how good he's been. here. ⁓ I would really lean more towards Kirkwood and Power if you're trying to shorten up what you want to do on the outright. ⁓ Palo is also there. I've seen like plus 250 places so you could maybe just go like Kirkwood Palo or just pick one of them or maybe you know Palo and power. ⁓ Kind of a couple ways to go about it but yeah that's where I started was just four outrides there. I was later able to they posted top fives and that's where I was really liking someone like ⁓ Rosenquist and Ericsson and so I took top five so the first this is the first top five and I think ⁓ @f1capper: Yeah. @iN8Rodgers: a season I think that I'm early last season but aside from the ND 500 of course but I took top five power Erickson and Rosenquist plus 140 plus 225 and plus 400 and those respectively ⁓ so yeah that's that's I've just ⁓ After Arlington, I just feel really good about Andretti. I'm in the same boat on Erickson. He's not going to win because he never wins when I bet on him. But he's stolen a lot of money from me every time he does win. ⁓ @f1capper: Yeah. Yeah, he's definitely a bag stealer, but I will say I think Obviously, I missed the boat on a lot of those outright. Well, I didn't really have the access and Now that we're here and I'm able to talk it out with you I think one of the top fives that I'm I'm really keen on and I feel like I just need to be Putting a full unit on it is is the willpower top five, even though it's dropped down to plus 115 but we're talking about like a top five and You know, I do worry about him going into qualifying and maybe messing up and whatnot, but number one, we don't get a top five market often. So this is like that opportunity. I feel like I need to strike on it while we have it. Cause there's no, I don't think we'll see that top five after we start practice on Friday. And, and I just, you know, to your point, like, I mean, I feel like the, he does qualify good, you know, if he's in the top four, top three odds are going to probably be up like plus one, you know, 30, 140, so here we are, I got them at plus 115. So I think that's gonna be my initial pre-weekend play for sure that I wanna go in on, even though it's dropped down. I think you said plus 140 is what you got it at? Yeah. So yeah, there's a lot of good stuff out here. So I'm just gonna throw out some numbers and just get your thoughts while we have a top five market. Why not? Let's have fun with this. @iN8Rodgers: Absolutely. Yeah. @f1capper: Interesting to see Lungard at minus 155. as much as, too much juice. And that brings me to ask like, before we even dive into it, probably wanted to talk to you more about McLaren. I know that we've been kind of low on them through the year, but we've been high on them you know, come race day. But now it's starting to become like a, it was kind of alarming to see, I guess, Pado and like Seagull. obviously Siegel, we expected to be around like P17, but Pato, he did not show anything at the last race. Where do you see them fitting in this weekend? @iN8Rodgers: ⁓ They've been kind of pretty rough here the last couple years and and Lundgaard did an interview just recently where he kind of went back to that race as they asked him about how Long Beach Long Beach went last year not moving on from barber But he said he was kind of surprised that he finished on the podium ⁓ That they still didn't really have the pace last year paddle was not great here last year. He never really has been And so I don't want to touch Lundgaard right now I probably won't touch paddle at all this week I probably even if there's a good matchup to fade him I'll be in on that ⁓ but Lungard I was gonna be looking at him but that kind of gave me some pause especially at these numbers right now because he really does show out on race day more than he does on qualifying so ⁓ I mean yeah there's a chance I don't really see that number getting much worse @f1capper: I don't either. If you can get a top five market again, just wait until after qualifying, but highly doubt you will. So don't even pay the Jews. But how about this? David Malouk is plus 240. I know. @iN8Rodgers: Yeah, I was just... I just saw how New Garden and Maluchas have fallen even more in the odds. Like can get New Garden and Maluchas like 30 to one outright and Maluchas 35 to one. And so the top three and the top five don't really, I wish they were little kinder on those, like coming off of those numbers, but I kind of like it. mean, plus 240 is just that he's been qualifying well. And so I think that number will be nice for that. @f1capper: Yeah, there was- @iN8Rodgers: I was hoping a little more for maybe a plus 800 podium or something like that off of a 35 to 1, but... @f1capper: I agree. I mean, I wish it was a plus 350, but again, we're not gonna see these odds. So from just throwing it around and you wanna have fun while you have access to something like this, that was the one that was kind of sticking out to me like, okay, well, it's not the best odds, but again, situation like this, why not? Because you're not gonna probably see it. @iN8Rodgers: Yeah. Yeah. Unfortunately you can't really be choosy on top fives. just gotta, if you feel that it's, yeah. Absolutely, yeah. @f1capper: Yeah, you just gotta go for it. You gotta send it, push the pass, send it. Awesome, awesome. Okay, so top three, we had, let's see, I don't know if we had anything for top three. Did you have top three plays? @iN8Rodgers: I haven't played it since I got those top 5s, I've just kind of left it. @f1capper: Yeah, honestly, should, ⁓ that's the way you should be playing it, is take the top fives, because you will get, let the qualifying grid just set itself, and then you'll get top three again, so. @iN8Rodgers: And if this gets chalky like Kirkwood pillow one two, then you have one spot to hit for podium basically because you're not going to get anything good enough on Kirkwood or pillow unless you start making parlays or something. podiums just, you're squeezed on that. @f1capper: Yep, yep. All right, well, I got an even more fun one for you because we talked about Caesars. So Caesars, if you're listening, you really have to be a hawk. They will post for a moment some odds. ⁓ And again, they did it in St. Pete. They did it this last week. I think they did the last race. They did it again this race. @iN8Rodgers: Yeah, and they do have a lot of it back up, but unfortunately not everything that was there. @f1capper: Well, I loved, loved those combo top finishes that they have. Man, so if you're listening, they just, put three of, know, they'll put a Kirkwood, a Palo and a Pato or something or a new garden at a top 10 and it's like minus 110, minus 120. And they give you pretty much about like 10 different matchups. I swear. I think I know I added it up for St. Pete. I think seven out of the 10 hit out of that combo that posted. ⁓ But did you get an opportunity to get in on that? @iN8Rodgers: Yeah, I did. And actually they had just ⁓ pairs instead of, you know, having three people in them. So I, well, they had both. So I played three of the pairs. got New Garden and Dixon at minus 110, Rosenquist at power plus 140, and Maluchas at Ericsson at plus 200. Yeah, ⁓ I believe so. You know, like anything can happen, but you got it. When you look at just the hit rates of these things that like, that, you know, the odds seem tough, but @f1capper: Okay, so it was a pair. Oh, even better. free money. free money. @iN8Rodgers: You know, they're pretty like workable for, you know, is Palo and Dixon going to get a top 10? Like 90 % chance, yes. So there was, you know, Kirkwood, Palo and Dixon was minus 150. A little, a little juicy, but I mean, that's, you're, you're. one and two on the board and then Dixon who's just steady and then Palo Lungard Dixon so swapping Kirkwood and Lungard there for even plus 100. So those are the five I got into. Another one that they have pulled and haven't reposted was a top Chevy. I took Malukis at seven to one for just 0.1 units at a small play. ⁓ I don't know that he's going to be the best Chevy but he doesn't have a ton of competition when you look at it. between him and two McLarens and New Garden and McLaughlin as teammates. So to get a seven to one on, it's a little more even in my mind. @f1capper: Yeah, so what I'm gonna do, I do this with our F1, since there's a lot of lines out here for this Caesar, I'm gonna share my screen so we can all track together. Just give me one second. Let see, can you see my screen? Cool. All right, let's get to Caesar's. Because there's a lot. And I actually wanna get to one. that we I think so I think so and listen like I get it you know this is a Honda dominant track whatnot and I'm playing with fire but I do think the over I don't know if I would want to take it at minus 130 though um but over four and half total numbers of chevys in in the top 10 so @iN8Rodgers: We're on opposite sides here. @f1capper: Why don't you go ahead and give me your reasoning? Because mine really is just like, hey, listen, they were close last year. Joseph New Garden was at like one more car, because it slipped in. I think it's priced right. So it's pure vibes. Let's just put it that way. @iN8Rodgers: Yeah. Yeah, no, and it's, I think people are agreeing with you because the line has moved into the over and this plus 100 on the under is actually better than what I got. So, @f1capper: I'm, yeah, I think it's getting to that side where you might want to take the under. @iN8Rodgers: But You it's kind of funny that when we talked about it, you said, you know, you'll maybe touch on this. There's a little more data driven and mine was just like a simple math of like, I'm counting on my hand of like how many, how many Hondas I'm looking at and how many Chevys. And, and then that's just kind of what it like, I think there's seven to eight Hondas that have a decent shot to, ⁓ get in the top 10 and I'm only counting five to maybe six Chevys. And so there's just that slight edge to Honda, which the line is made. @f1capper: I I mean... Yeah... ⁓ for sure. @iN8Rodgers: that way too that they're giving the slight edge to Honda so it's going to be close either way you don't we don't see a ton of races where there's eight or nine of one manufacturer in the top ten so it's going to be close @f1capper: Yeah. And if you're just feeling frisky, think at this point, like it's really kind of just, yeah, go if you want to have fun, but I think there are other things we can look at here, which is like driver to lead a lap. now we got over five and a half is or under five and a half is now just to that side. then drivers on the lead lap at finish. I don't know if I want to even mess with. @iN8Rodgers: Yeah, that's just so... When you go through the history, it's like hard to even say why, you know, get to... know, cautions will be one thing, but ⁓ it's... @f1capper: Yeah. @iN8Rodgers: On the previous street course in St. Pete, I went to the over on the number of lap leaders and the number of lead changes. But since I talked about that overcut, I would kind of lead. Because if the leader's out there and they're trying to stay out the longest, obviously cautions really throw a wrench in that, but can't predict those. And Kirkwood maintained the lead. @f1capper: under. Yeah. @iN8Rodgers: So just because he would pit and come back out in the lead. And so if Kirkwood or Palo is your person sitting up front, then you're not going to change hands very much. And even if you do, you're probably just going back and forth between them. And so I'm leaning the under. Yeah, I'm leaning the under. @f1capper: I'm interested in that under. Yeah, I'm interested in, I haven't done it yet, but I am, I am interested in that under just because of the overcut and just like you said, just you got to, it's going to be Palo and Kirkwood probably just battling it first and second for all we know, you know. @iN8Rodgers: And you can even throw it, know, maybe power Ericsson, like get, get pole and they're in that mix too. And that's still only three liters. Maybe someone ought to caution sequence gets you four, maybe five, but then you still clear it. @f1capper: Yeah Yep, yep. I haven't done the analysis on the fastest speed yet. ⁓ @iN8Rodgers: That's, that one's where it's nice if they keep that up all weekend because we were, I was able to find St. Pete that they were just naturally going slower than last year. And that was just an easy kind of like they, their average was based on what they've done, you know, last year. And then we see we're going slower. So kind of hard to call because in, in barber, they were going much faster. ⁓ I would lean that it's going to be under. @f1capper: So what I'm gonna do is I'm gonna do the same exercise I did for the last race, which I just took the average speeds, I think for the past five years or something like that, and try to just factor in like, what is the average amount of cautions that will impact speed? So we'll see. ⁓ that's on the fastest lap. I just realized. ⁓ nevermind. Nevermind. @iN8Rodgers: That's just, yeah, that one's just fastest lap. that one's just straight up like comparing practice times, like are they slower? @f1capper: Yeah, nevermind. I don't want anything to do with that. nevermind. ⁓ Group B. Let's see. Yeah. ⁓ @iN8Rodgers: Yeah, these groups kind of suck. ⁓ Because, I mean, would maybe, if you really wanted something, I would go Felix, yeah, because of the odds. And this one is disgusting because it's got six people in a group. Yeah. @f1capper: Felix? Yeah. Yeah, Felix on that one, but it's pro- What the, ⁓ there's even more. ⁓ yeah, that's not even fun. Okay. Yeah. And it's probably, yeah. Ooh. Yeah. I don't want anything to do with that. All right. Well, let's see. ⁓ here's the average speed of the race. Okay. There it is. Number of lead changes, which kind of goes back. I actually don't like it at seven and a half because yeah, like, yeah. Yeah. @iN8Rodgers: Yeah, that's. probably going to be a three stop race but that overcut kind of changes things from St. Pete. @f1capper: Yeah. Take it. If you're going to don't even mess with that. Just take the where is it? laps. Just take the drivers to lead the laps over that. That's such a better number to take on is five and a half right there. Average speed. This is where I'll do that exercise and just look at the average speed and then factor in any cautions that may impact that. And then that will give us what it is, but it could be over 98 and it looks like the market is leaning that way too. So, ⁓ we'll see. I'm going to do that. I Probably will post that eventually, but that's one I'm eyeing as well. Winning card number, or even. Yeah. That's just a, yeah, don't even. Exactly. Exactly. Let's see, total odd number card. Man. Just do the Chevy over this. @iN8Rodgers: Yeah, and when you have Polo and Kirkwood split, you're kinda like, well, that's hard to touch. Might as well just bet on one of them outright. Yeah, this would be another one where you're counting on your fingers, but with the odds moving like that, mean, minus 145 is kind of... @f1capper: Mm-hmm. Okay, well, I don't know. Are there any other lines that we're missing at other books? Are there any matchups going on? @iN8Rodgers: No, we don't have any of that yet. I did just think, I don't want to, I'm not going to play in New Garden, Maluchas outright, but for them to be 30 to one and higher on MGM when everywhere else they're 10 to one, 16 to one is kind of interesting. So. @f1capper: just outright. @iN8Rodgers: If anyone really really likes them, that's that's where you got to go because we don't normally have that big of a Same thing with Felix to Felix is really short on the you know, three or four other books But mgm just is still he was a hundred to one, but he's still like 50 to one maybe I think 40 to one so that's pretty interesting to to for them to be so Far away from everyone else ⁓ Did you did you have any grid rival I threw a few of those together @f1capper: Yeah. Actually, did. Let me see. Let's pull that up. trees so I did a Marcus Armstrong, so I had a profit boost, which was nice on this one too. They gave me a free profit boost. I did Armstrong and on better 10 and a half and Colette worse 14 and a half. And then that was it. That's all I had. And then I was gonna say, let's cook some stuff up while we're here, but let's talk about the ones you have. @iN8Rodgers: Yep, I'm on that. @f1capper: because I know you probably have a plethora of them. @iN8Rodgers: ⁓ So I do have the Armstrong and Colette. ⁓ I do prefer Felix here over Armstrong just statistics wise. Armstrong hasn't necessarily popped here at Long Beach yet but Colette I'm not really sure why he's that high. I know he looked good in Arlington and maybe they're going off of that a little bit but ⁓ I still don't trust Voight cars and ⁓ @f1capper: Yeah. @iN8Rodgers: He's a Chevy where you lean Honda. ⁓ Another car was Rosenquist better than 9.5 with VK worse than 13.5. VK has been kind of rough here all the way back to his rookie year at ECR. ⁓ I think this line might be a little lower just because VK sometimes has a little bit of that magic and also I think Stingray got a disgusting top 10 here last year which was mostly strategy based I really doubt if that was any of his pure racing craft but ⁓ I faded VK. ⁓ Next card was Power better than 5.5 and I faded Grosjean. @f1capper: Yeah, he did. I'm gonna do that one. I'm gonna do that one. @iN8Rodgers: Even though he's been okay here at times, I think it's time to fake Grojah at 9.5. ⁓ He might have moved, this been a little bit. @f1capper: He's at 9.5. ⁓ he did. Now he's at 10 and a half. Let's ⁓ Keep going. Keep going. @iN8Rodgers: I have one more. I got cute with this one. Not sure why did Rasmussen better than 15.5 where I've normally been fading them. I don't know if Java House has been paying Fox to... say that uh... easier is gonna have these upgrades that they're bringing the next race the next race for some reason i'm buying that uh... but i i faded shoe market sixteen and a half uh... real estate himself on our podcast that he thought they could struggle here so that's that's what i'm basing on mic mic has struggled so far this year he has moments where he can lay like an awesome sector and also a lot but putting a whole race together isn't shown that yet so i think the sixteen half is a little low @f1capper: Yeah. @iN8Rodgers: that with something else because I don't know I went a little wild with the Rasmussen better I think. @f1capper: Yeah, no, looking at it, ⁓ that Colette one is almost like 14 and a half. What are we doing? ⁓ And it shows, right? He's at 16 and a half now. I was not afraid to take that one on. I just, I did Armstrong just because he's been good to me on grid rival and he's, he's a pretty solid, no, he doesn't get enough talk through the grid at all. And I'm like, he's quietly just puts up really good results. So 10 and a half to me just, you know. @iN8Rodgers: ⁓ yeah. @f1capper: seems like a pretty good number to be backing him at better. So I do like that Schumacher though. I don't know what I would want to pair it with though. So let's ⁓ pair it with some. I was thinking power, but I said, if I'm going to do the top five with power, let's do something else. Like let's go look somewhere else. @iN8Rodgers: was really interesting of how they posted them for this race if they glumped so many people into that 14 through 16 and we don't really see many people lower than that. So it's just kind of like that take your pick, which a lot of them I lean worse on actually. And so. @f1capper: Yeah, they did. Maybe I just take Kiffin just for 15 and a half worse or maybe... @iN8Rodgers: He was pretty good here last year, but again, it's like, don't know. Was that just a product of everyone else struggling last year? Cause this year he just hasn't. Yeah. @f1capper: He hasn't shown anything this year. The only other one was like Foster, worse than 14 and a half. Maybe. @iN8Rodgers: Yeah, just that they probably won't let you do that with with just Schumacher because I almost wanted to I wanted to fade all the Rayhaws really but I just had to kind of pick one @f1capper: Yeah, ⁓ yeah, that's right. You know what? I will go with my gut and do worse on Kiffin Simpson. Let's do this. It'll be worse 15 and a half Kiffin Simpson, Mick worse 16 and a half. And I'll just call it a day. I am really banking on the other one, which is my Armstrong and Colette 14 and a half. So, you know, pray for that one. All right. This is this is in. This is my official push to cash Long Beach grid rival play. All right. So is that it? Is that all we got for grid rival? I guess so. @iN8Rodgers: Yep, I mean, I expect we'll get some matchups and more top three options tomorrow and Thursday. So we'll have those on the Discord, but that's really all I have right now, which is actually quite a bit. @f1capper: Yeah, yeah, we'll definitely have more. Yeah, so just get into the Discord. Obviously, we'll have live discussions and as odds are posting, know, everyone's going to just be like Hawks. So you'll get the up to second when they post what we're doing, everything as well as I will try to post something for fantasy this weekend. So cool, man. I'm looking forward to this late times because it is on the West Coast. So. be prepared for it to be in the late afternoon. So, cool. @iN8Rodgers: Yeah, think the NASCAR is rolling right into IndyCar, so hopefully some good ratings for them. @f1capper: Yeah, it's been fun. It's been fun so far. think they're at Kansas on Saturday and Sunday, so that should be fun. No F1. It feels like a century since we've been talking F1, so. Yeah, it's been, it's very weird, very weird. All right, man, we'll see you this weekend. @iN8Rodgers: second offseason unfortunately for them.