Latest / Financial Survival Network / Are GDP Numbers Misleading You? - Mindy McIntosh #6157

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Are GDP Numbers Misleading You? - Mindy McIntosh #6157 · Financial Survival Network

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  Speaker 1: You know, I don't feel like we're really seeing from
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  Speaker 1: consumer economy. I don't feel like we've seen the rebound
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: that they're.
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  Speaker 2: Saying spending I don't see is up.
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  Speaker 1: Still, We're still seeing personal consumption being kind of in
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  Speaker 1: a troublesome area. And you know, I really think that
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  Speaker 1: we need to look at where are we seeing these jobs.
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  Speaker 1: I'm not exactly sure where we've seen the creation of that.
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  Speaker 1: I'm not sure to your viewpoint on that, Carrie.
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  Speaker 3: You are listening to Carrie Let's's Financial Survival Network, where
• 0:28
  Speaker 3: you get valuable information you just can't find anywhere else
• 0:32
  Speaker 3: to thrive in today's trying times. You need the Financial
• 0:35
  Speaker 3: Survival Network now more than ever. Go to Financial Survivalnetwork
• 0:41
  Speaker 3: dot com and get your free newsletter and gift. Financial
• 0:44
  Speaker 3: Survival Network now more than ever.
• 0:51
  Speaker 4: And welcome you are listening to and watching the Financial
• 0:55
  Speaker 4: Survival Network. I'm your host, Carrie leutz.
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  Speaker 5: Well.
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  Speaker 4: We got some GDP number is out for September, and
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  Speaker 4: Indy Macintosh is with us now to help review and
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  Speaker 4: make sense of these numbers. It sounds like things are
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  Speaker 4: really going great. I hope they're going as good for you,
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  Speaker 4: Indy as the GDP number would indicate well.
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  Speaker 1: It sure making it look like these numbers are healthy
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  Speaker 1: when we take a look at three percent. But in
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  Speaker 1: you know, the Bureau had released that that's our final
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  Speaker 1: update that we've had currently and the rising annually three
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  Speaker 1: percent pace kind of shaking up from a shapy one
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  Speaker 1: point four percent growth in quarter one. You know, I
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  Speaker 1: don't feel like we're really seeing from consumer economy. I
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  Speaker 1: don't feel like we've seen the rebound that they're.
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  Speaker 2: Saying spending I don't see is up still.
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  Speaker 1: We're still seeing personal consumption being kind of in a
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  Speaker 1: troublesome area. And you know, I really think that we
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  Speaker 1: need to look at where are we seeing these jobs.
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  Speaker 1: I'm not exactly be sure where we've seen the creation
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  Speaker 1: of that. I'm not sure to your viewpoint on that.
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  Speaker 4: Carrie, Yeah, that's a good question. You know, this would
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  Speaker 4: be this type of growth number. You know, well, they
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  Speaker 4: redefined what a recession was, right because we used to
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  Speaker 4: define it as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.
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  Speaker 4: Then we got a number that they miscounted the jobs.
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  Speaker 4: There were actually eight hundred and eighteen thousand phantom jobs.
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  Speaker 4: And now you know this, I mean, do they have
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  Speaker 4: any credibility left here. I mean, the market's going up.
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  Speaker 4: It seems like happy days are here again. I'd like
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  Speaker 4: to start playing that song again. But it's just all
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  Speaker 4: seems to be smoking mirrors.
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  Speaker 1: Well that's why I always say, you know, it's a
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  Speaker 1: big question right now where our consumers A lot of
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  Speaker 1: folks that we're doing. What they're wondering, is inflation and
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  Speaker 1: such really declining? Are things becoming more and even kel
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  Speaker 1: what's happening in the job market? And I really say,
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  Speaker 1: you know, maybe not. And you just kind of brought
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  Speaker 1: it up a little bit. When we remove energy prices,
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  Speaker 1: inflation is still above three percent. If we take out food, energy,
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  Speaker 1: and even housing, it's about four and a half. So
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  Speaker 1: how are we giving the dollar direction and or redirection?
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  Speaker 1: I mean, yeah, and you're right, stops are doing what
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  Speaker 1: they should be doing. Bonds are still programs. We're using
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  Speaker 1: a lot of bond alternatives for our client folks to
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  Speaker 1: make sure that we're still hedging some changes. But you know,
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  Speaker 1: unemployment rates, we shouldn't see them decrease with that FED cut.
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  Speaker 1: But because I think that the FEDS did make that
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  Speaker 1: half of a basis point cut as well, because we
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  Speaker 1: want to make sure we don't get more recession territory.
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  Speaker 1: But our perspective really is, you know, a lot about
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  Speaker 1: taking a look at overall picture of what we're asking
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  Speaker 1: our clients with interest rates and unemployment and so historically
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  Speaker 1: and economic trends from past residential cycles. Even in elections.
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  Speaker 1: It's you know, obviously impossible to predict our exact economic implications,
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  Speaker 1: but I am so concerned with our with the people
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  Speaker 1: and the consumers that we're seeing in our office day
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  Speaker 1: in and day out, what's going to happen with post
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  Speaker 1: election cycles, and really what our theory is behind that.
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  Speaker 1: So we really have to hone in on the fundamentals
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  Speaker 1: and make sure we're not doing too much of a
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  Speaker 1: political basis is here. We want to make sure that
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  Speaker 1: we're being irrelevant in the portfolios and the things that
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  Speaker 1: we're seeing folks do on a day to day basis.
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  Speaker 5: Right.
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  Speaker 4: Yeah, So you know, and then you look and you
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  Speaker 4: see the dollars declining. You see gold prices hitting at
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  Speaker 4: our near all time highs twenty going to twenty seven
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  Speaker 4: hundred imminently, so it would appear silver is at thirty
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  Speaker 4: two dollars the ounce, and you know, you got to
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  Speaker 4: wonder are we missing something. Even copper, which had been
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  Speaker 4: kind of moribund but it's still was trading in the
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  Speaker 4: four dollar range. Copper is at four and a half
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  Speaker 4: bucks now back up to five. So where does all
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  Speaker 4: this leave us here with a feeling like we're not
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  Speaker 4: really seeing the whole picture from these government numbers right
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  Speaker 4: Even oil prices starting to head up now again. And
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  Speaker 4: is this just the election field distortion of reality that's
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  Speaker 4: taking place, or is there.
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  Speaker 5: Something deeper going on here?
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  Speaker 2: Mandy Well, I think sometimes we have to.
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  Speaker 1: Look out for avoiding emotional and or political motivated investment
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  Speaker 1: decisions right now. But what we're even seeing from our
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  Speaker 1: clients is that there's been in market volatility and we're
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  Speaker 1: seeing folks more flame to what they call the tangibles
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  Speaker 1: or they want more outside diversifications. We're seeing that happen.
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  Speaker 1: So I think that's why we're seeing the gold and
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  Speaker 1: the silver. I think that we're seeing it in higher usage.
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  Speaker 1: There's more demand on that currently as people are more
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  Speaker 1: nervous and uneasy about the market. We're also seeing on
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  Speaker 1: the flip side and more folks are heavy in cash
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  Speaker 1: right now too, And I think that you know that's
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  Speaker 1: they're just unsure of what's going to happen with political
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  Speaker 1: you know views, what they've even seen Wall launched the debate.
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  Speaker 1: So that's over the long term. It's really our job
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  Speaker 1: here in our firms. We're trying to help folks for
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  Speaker 1: pere and establish for a nice retirement, and so we
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  Speaker 1: want to make sure they're not too heavy in cash.
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  Speaker 1: We do want to have some of those outside tangibles
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  Speaker 1: and diversification, but really guiding through you know, guiding our
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  Speaker 1: focus as much as possible through the political noise, which
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  Speaker 1: some of that I think you're alluding to here, Carrie
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  Speaker 1: is just you know, we have to be okay with
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  Speaker 1: you know, democratic versus Republicans, you know, even ideally when
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  Speaker 1: we take a look over the past fifty years, the
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  Speaker 1: digital age is much more increasing right now, we have
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  Speaker 1: adi to think about. We have a lot of things
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  Speaker 1: driving differences right now that we take a look at,
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  Speaker 1: so shifting an incentives for I'll let social media platforms.
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  Speaker 1: Audiences are getting more bias, so what they're feeling, I
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  Speaker 1: think about trends in the market and popularization of different ideas.
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  Speaker 1: So with our process, we just aim to make sure
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  Speaker 1: that our client folks and their experience can lead to
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  Speaker 1: clarity just to get sometimes of just the buzz of
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  Speaker 1: the headlines out out of what they're actually reading and
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  Speaker 1: let's get down to the basics of what's really happening.
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  Speaker 4: Hey, you're in Michigan, so I'm sure you remember this slogan.
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  Speaker 4: I mean that it was US economic policy probably for
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  Speaker 4: fifty sixty years, and that is what's good for GM
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  Speaker 4: is good for the US. Is it hard to change
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  Speaker 4: that and say what's good for Tesla is good for
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  Speaker 4: the US?
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  Speaker 1: Oh? I feel like you do see that everywhere, right,
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  Speaker 1: even in any of the morning feeds that I read.
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  Speaker 1: We see it everywhere. And what are they trying to
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  Speaker 1: get involved with with now? And how is he continuing
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  Speaker 1: to make a staple sub Yeah, I mean before it
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  Speaker 1: was GM. I live in Michigan, not far from like
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  Speaker 1: some of the big plants in Flint, Michigan. Here, it's
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  Speaker 1: just only about an hour away. And we also need
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  Speaker 1: to make sure that even folks that are looking to
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  Speaker 1: have Tesla in their portfolio, are we too happily laid
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  Speaker 1: weighted there? And then what are the tax of the locations,
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  Speaker 1: especially if you're in a bull fight accounts, it's a
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  Speaker 1: whole nother discussion. But when we take a look at
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  Speaker 1: the world right now, what we're paying for taxes, We
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  Speaker 1: have huge legislative risk right now, and what are our
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  Speaker 1: taxes actually are going to be in the future. That
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  Speaker 1: can go nowhere but up. So I think that, you know,
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  Speaker 1: rather than getting tripped up on too many individual pieces,
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  Speaker 1: we need to make sure that we're urging our folks
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  Speaker 1: to answer questions like long term goals even right, So
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  Speaker 1: instead of lookating today Tesla AI, how man they get
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  Speaker 1: involved in the new great thing? More, it's what are
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  Speaker 1: financial rules? When do they need to reach them? You know,
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  Speaker 1: how much risk can folks really tolerate? Do they need
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  Speaker 1: the growth that they're speculating their thinking they want or
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  Speaker 1: are they already kind of won the game at work
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  Speaker 1: and now we need to do a great income and
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  Speaker 1: withdrawal strategy from them? So these are all things were safe.
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  Speaker 5: I get it, they get it, they get it.
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  Speaker 4: Maybe what's good for Tesla is good for the world,
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  Speaker 4: but not necessarily the stock market and your retirement right right? Absolutely,
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  Speaker 4: all right, So emerging trends here, I think we're going
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  Speaker 4: to see a shift in as far as the leading
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  Speaker 4: sectors in the market. A are we kind of going
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  Speaker 4: through a transformation here? What is your take on it?
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  Speaker 1: I really think we're still going to see with what's
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  Speaker 1: happening with AI tech that all those platforms I think
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  Speaker 1: are going to continue to be successful and do well.
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  Speaker 1: I do think one area we should look out for, though,
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  Speaker 1: is more nuclear power in the future, especially with what
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  Speaker 1: we're seeing overseas clean energy. I really think as a
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  Speaker 1: being viewpointed on a lot of of sectors, so I
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  Speaker 1: think we can look out for that. I always always
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  Speaker 1: want to continue to maintain looking at some of our
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  Speaker 1: staples like healthcare as well, So those would be some
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  Speaker 1: of my key fundamentals. Where are stabilizers, what are sort
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  Speaker 1: of things that should be steady Eddy? And then what
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  Speaker 1: is still the newer hib But I'm like, sure, you know,
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  Speaker 1: we had the Apples and Amazons and Microsoft to the world,
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  Speaker 1: but it's really that tack AI that I continue to
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  Speaker 1: feel like we're gonna seating that in the forefront of
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  Speaker 1: some big things still for the for the next year plus.
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  Speaker 5: Okay, all right, I'll buy that.
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  Speaker 4: And finally, when we have this conversation in a year,
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  Speaker 4: is economy going to be booming the same or lower.
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  Speaker 1: I think that that has a lot to keep your
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  Speaker 1: November an election. You know, I'm a very optimistic person.
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  Speaker 1: I want to say that it's gring to be dreaming,
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  Speaker 1: but I have my own reservations. But I have deeper
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  Speaker 1: reservations than just a year from now. My reservationsly a
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  Speaker 1: lot more in I feel like legislative intact rinks in
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  Speaker 1: the future, like for what are you know my oldest
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  Speaker 1: daughter is fifteen years old that I really really am
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  Speaker 1: concerned about the future for our youth. But a year
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  Speaker 1: from mental, I think that there's a lot more to
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  Speaker 1: see what happens in election time. But also even some
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  Speaker 1: of these numbers that just come out Garry I I'm
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  Speaker 1: not I'm not feeling it.
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  Speaker 4: Yeah, well, you know, so this is going to make
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  Speaker 4: a joke. You're talking about kids, but you have young kids.
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  Speaker 4: I'll love refrain from the joke. My kids are My
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  Speaker 4: kids are grown. It's their problem. I don't care anymore.
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  Speaker 4: That's kind of where I'm at with it. It's like,
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  Speaker 4: I'm just going to enjoy my life and hopefully my
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  Speaker 4: my money will outlast me. But you never know about
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  Speaker 4: these things, right, And that's I'm sure the biggest question.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's it's and I agree with you, Carrie. You
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  Speaker 1: never know. It's the biggest quest that our actual clients
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  Speaker 1: ask us, And do I have enough money? Am I
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  Speaker 1: going to be okay? With healthcare costs and things happening
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  Speaker 1: in the world. Am I going to have enough income
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  Speaker 1: to sustain my twenty five or thirty years of retirement?
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  Speaker 1: Because with advancements in health so we have to have
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  Speaker 1: more diversification. But some are like keep carry. They're like, hey,
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  Speaker 1: the day but you would say the day you pass away,
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  Speaker 1: if all of your counser are to zero, you one.
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  Speaker 5: That is it? Well?
• 12:27
  Speaker 4: Well, I mean the one thing I learned kind of
• 12:30
  Speaker 4: twenty years ago is never retire semi retire right us,
• 12:35
  Speaker 4: as you can do things, bring in enough cash flow
• 12:39
  Speaker 4: that'll keep you happy as long as you can, and
• 12:41
  Speaker 4: then when you can't, the money.
• 12:42
  Speaker 5: Isn't going to matter anymore anyway. So that's kind of
• 12:46
  Speaker 5: my day active too.
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: If we stay active, can bault and keep our brain
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: power going and keep our bodies moving. I say that
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: less things happen to us, we can do we do
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: continue to maintain better by staying active. So I fleeve
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: with you, Carrie, keep on doing something that you enjoy.
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  Speaker 4: Mentally active, physically active, because you'll just have a better
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  Speaker 4: quality of life and financially active. Appreciate you coming on
• 13:11
  Speaker 4: as always, Mindy. Just tell us where we find you.
• 13:14
  Speaker 4: How do we connect with you on the web.
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: Sure, thanks, Kerry, appreciate it. You can find us at
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: Walthmichigan dot com or by all means anytime you reach
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: out there. We do actually have some reports informational educational
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: session set up, but that's Wealth Michigan dot com writing
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: the best way to locate our Macintosh and Associates firm
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: and find out about more information and how we can help.
• 13:38
  Speaker 4: Excellent and looking at your window there, it looks like
• 13:41
  Speaker 4: winter is coming, although you heard it's pretty warm up
• 13:44
  Speaker 4: in Michigan right now.
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: But it's been great. You know, we've had some ball
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: mornings now for sure, and it's getting dark earlier, but
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: we still have some great weather and it's been good
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: for our our outdoor sports seasons as for sure.
• 13:58
  Speaker 4: Hey, well, we only have two seasons here in Florida.
• 14:00
  Speaker 4: I'd like to say hot and hotter, So right now
• 14:04
  Speaker 4: we're getting done with hotter and we're going into hot,
• 14:07
  Speaker 4: which is fine with me.
• 14:08
  Speaker 5: So we'll talk to you again soon.
• 14:09
  Speaker 4: Hey, you've got a question from Mindy or myself kl
• 14:12
  Speaker 4: at Carrie Lutz dot com. That's the email address and
• 14:16
  Speaker 4: you'll find a link to mindy site in the show
• 14:18
  Speaker 4: notes to this interview on Financial Survival Network dot com.
• 14:22
  Speaker 4: While you're there, please sign up for your free newsletter Mindy.
• 14:25
  Speaker 4: Always a pleasure. Thanks so much for stopping by.
• 14:27
  Speaker 3: Thanks Karen, thanks for listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network,
• 14:32
  Speaker 3: your solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go
• 14:36
  Speaker 3: to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: Now more than ever,