Latest / Core Memory / The Man Who Sees The Future - EP 94 Neal Stephenson
Transcript
- 0:00SPEAKER_01: Everyone wants to know, like, utopia or dystopia?
- 0:03SPEAKER_01: Oh, yeah.
- 0:03SPEAKER_00: Yeah, where are we heading?
- 0:04SPEAKER_00: Do we take our foot off the gas,
- 0:06SPEAKER_00: hit the pause button,
- 0:07SPEAKER_00: China gets it, or, you know, do we keep the pedal to the metal?
- 0:10SPEAKER_00: They may not necessarily be amoral, but they gotta do what they gotta do.
- 0:15SPEAKER_01: Very well-known tech figures fully think we are living in the singularity.
- 0:20SPEAKER_00: I'm more of an S-curve guy.
- 0:21SPEAKER_00: The two big problems that I'm scared of are too much carbon in the atmosphere and
- 0:27SPEAKER_00: the fact that people cannot agree on what is real.
- 0:31SPEAKER_00: They found a cube of uranium in some guy's garage.
- 0:35SPEAKER_00: He'd built a nuclear fuser in his garage.
- 0:38SPEAKER_01: Bedroom using only Claude as his guide.
- 0:41SPEAKER_01: He'd never built a hardware system before.
- 0:43SPEAKER_01: Anyone should have tons of TV shows and movies based on their work.
- 0:48SPEAKER_01: It's you.
- 0:49SPEAKER_00: The whole AI revolution sort of blindsided me in a lot of ways.
- 0:54SPEAKER_00: You become an instant expert in whatever you're writing about and then you walk away from it.
- 0:59[music]
- 1:13SPEAKER_01: Normally this time I would be doing an introduction or would have already done
- 1:17SPEAKER_01: an introduction, but our guest today needs no such introduction.
- 1:21SPEAKER_01: I'll embarrass you by saying living legend,
- 1:25SPEAKER_01: one of the greats among us,
- 1:27SPEAKER_01: Neil Stevenson,
- 1:28SPEAKER_01: famous author,
- 1:30SPEAKER_01: sci-fi author,
- 1:31SPEAKER_01: historical fiction,
- 1:33SPEAKER_01: and some nonfiction now and then at least in magazines and whatnot.
- 1:39SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
- 1:40SPEAKER_01: While most,
- 1:41SPEAKER_01: as a fellow author,
- 1:42SPEAKER_01: since most people will be listening now,
- 1:45SPEAKER_01: I think we should get right to the point at the beginning,
- 1:48SPEAKER_01: which is you have a new book out.
- 1:50SPEAKER_01: I do.
- 1:50SPEAKER_00: Do you want to?
- 1:53SPEAKER_01: D. Yeah, D. And whatever you want to tell us about it.
- 1:57SPEAKER_01: Sure.
- 1:57SPEAKER_01: I know it's a sequel, and I'll let
- 2:00SPEAKER_00: you do it.
- 2:01SPEAKER_00: Yeah, well, it's the second book in a series that'll probably go to three.
- 2:06SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 2:07SPEAKER_00: And it's so the name of the series is Bomb Light.
- 2:10SPEAKER_00: The first book was called Polo Stan.
- 2:13SPEAKER_00: Dee is continuing the story from pretty much where Polo Stan left off.
- 2:18SPEAKER_00: And this is a story about the whole series is about developments in physics
- 2:27SPEAKER_00: during
- 2:27SPEAKER_00: the 30s that led up to the Manhattan Project and the bomb.
- 2:31SPEAKER_00: But it's stuff that I didn't really know about.
- 2:35SPEAKER_00: Until comparatively recently,
- 2:38SPEAKER_00: everyone knows kind of the basic story of the Manhattan Project about Oppenheimer
- 2:44SPEAKER_00: and Groves and the other big players in that project.
- 2:50SPEAKER_00: But that stuff all happened.
- 2:52SPEAKER_00: It was all kind of teed up in the mid to late 30s by other things that went on
- 2:58SPEAKER_00: in Europe that I think are equally interesting in a lot of ways.
- 3:04SPEAKER_00: So I decided to write about that.
- 3:07SPEAKER_00: It's not, I mean,
- 3:09SPEAKER_00: I say it's about physics and it is,
- 3:11SPEAKER_00: but in case that's scaring anyone off,
- 3:13SPEAKER_00: it is also kind of an espionage and action kind of book because...
- 3:22SPEAKER_00: Like one of the weirdest things about this part of history is
- 3:27SPEAKER_00: that these incredibly important developments that led to nuclear energy and
- 3:31SPEAKER_00: the bomb just happened by pure coincidence to be going on at exactly the same time
- 3:38SPEAKER_00: as the rise of the Nazis and Hitler's invasion of Poland and the beginning of
- 3:44SPEAKER_00: the Second World War.
- 3:45SPEAKER_00: So that's Merely a coincidence,
- 3:48SPEAKER_00: but the fact that those things were happening simultaneously made for
- 3:53SPEAKER_00: a really interesting situation.
- 3:56SPEAKER_01: Fantastic.
- 3:57SPEAKER_01: And I'm sure our audience in particular,
- 4:01SPEAKER_01: I'm sure you have many,
- 4:02SPEAKER_01: many readers among our listeners who have been waiting for this book and are excited
- 4:07SPEAKER_01: to grab it.
- 4:10SPEAKER_01: So I'm going to go,
- 4:13SPEAKER_01: now I'm going to go off script, if that's okay, because
- 4:16SPEAKER_00: I figured you have to...
- 4:17SPEAKER_00: I didn't know there was a script.
- 4:18SPEAKER_01: No, there isn't.
- 4:18SPEAKER_01: There isn't really.
- 4:19SPEAKER_01: But it's really, it's hard to interview someone who's been interviewed so many times.
- 4:24SPEAKER_01: And instinctually, I put up on X, what should I ask you?
- 4:28SPEAKER_01: And then everyone wants to know your vision of the future.
- 4:31SPEAKER_01: And I know you don't really like to do that.
- 4:34SPEAKER_01: What's it like being...
- 4:38SPEAKER_01: I was curious how you feel about the whole book tour exercise.
- 4:42SPEAKER_01: It's never my favorite thing to do.
- 4:45SPEAKER_01: I feel like you have to go on autopilot and repeat yourself over and over again.
- 4:50SPEAKER_00: You know, so obviously it's a huge privilege to publish a book at all.
- 4:58SPEAKER_00: And among people who get to publish books, it's a huge privilege to have a book tour.
- 5:03SPEAKER_00: Now you're going to make me look
- 5:03SPEAKER_01: like an asshole.
- 5:06SPEAKER_00: Well, I mean, I have to preface the answer by saying that.
- 5:10SPEAKER_00: You understand, you know.
- 5:12SPEAKER_00: But the, I mean, I actually don't mind it.
- 5:17SPEAKER_00: I think, I mean, I only have to do it for like two weeks every two or three years, right?
- 5:23SPEAKER_00: And I could do anything.
- 5:25SPEAKER_00: And, I mean, they make it pretty easy.
- 5:28SPEAKER_00: It's not...
- 5:30SPEAKER_00: People used to go on these endless book tours for months that were just terrible.
- 5:36SPEAKER_01: That's what I was going to ask you.
- 5:37SPEAKER_01: It must be different than when you first started writing because especially even
- 5:41SPEAKER_01: before COVID,
- 5:42SPEAKER_01: it felt like they were slowing down and it felt like COVID almost killed
- 5:45SPEAKER_01: the book tour to some degree.
- 5:46SPEAKER_01: And then I noticed now all my author friends, it's very condensed.
- 5:50SPEAKER_00: Well, I think they are, yeah,
- 5:53SPEAKER_00: it could be that the author friends you have now are different from the ones you had
- 5:57SPEAKER_00: before because I think that...
- 6:01SPEAKER_00: The old school,
- 6:03SPEAKER_00: like driving from city to city with a bunch of books in the trunk of your car style
- 6:08SPEAKER_00: of book tour is something that people used to do to get their career going.
- 6:17SPEAKER_00: And the modern,
- 6:19SPEAKER_00: so publisher-financed and publisher-organized book tour is a whole different animal.
- 6:25SPEAKER_00: And what they're basically trying to do is...
- 6:29SPEAKER_00: Is hit the bookstores that they think are going to give the best numbers and cram
- 6:36SPEAKER_00: as many of those events into,
- 6:38SPEAKER_00: say, a two-week period as is physically possible with airplanes.
- 6:44SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
- 6:45SPEAKER_00: And so, because,
- 6:49SPEAKER_00: you know, what you want to do is jack up the sales figures for those key stores.
- 6:57SPEAKER_00: And that's partly about,
- 6:59SPEAKER_00: you know,
- 6:59SPEAKER_00: hopefully you get a position,
- 7:01SPEAKER_00: a better position on the bestseller list, which leads to knock-on effects.
- 7:06SPEAKER_00: And even if you don't, it's a way of making friends with the people who run those bookstores.
- 7:12SPEAKER_00: You know, it's not a high...
- 7:14SPEAKER_00: Paying job a lot of times.
- 7:21SPEAKER_00: I think one of the perks if you're a person who works in a bookstore or runs
- 7:26SPEAKER_00: a bookstore is being able to do an event.
- 7:30SPEAKER_00: So it's kind of win-win.
- 7:32SPEAKER_01: Yeah, they love it.
- 7:33SPEAKER_01: I live in Mountain View and Andy Weir used to live there.
- 7:36SPEAKER_01: And for a moment in time, I will not compare myself to Andy Weir, but we...
- 7:42SPEAKER_01: Had cornered the market on Mars and the bookstore loved it.
- 7:49SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I've done two events on two occasions when he came to Seattle.
- 7:54SPEAKER_00: I got to be the interlocutor who talked to him.
- 7:58SPEAKER_00: Yeah, that's perfect.
- 7:59SPEAKER_00: Third place books.
- 8:00SPEAKER_00: Yeah, it was fun.
- 8:03SPEAKER_01: Um, I mean,
- 8:03SPEAKER_01: there's,
- 8:03SPEAKER_01: there's,
- 8:04SPEAKER_01: you know,
- 8:04SPEAKER_01: there's,
- 8:05SPEAKER_01: I feel bad because I know people will throw similar questions at you,
- 8:09SPEAKER_01: but then there's some things where I feel like I have to,
- 8:11SPEAKER_01: I have to ask you this
- 8:12SPEAKER_00: stuff and I'm going to be,
- 8:13SPEAKER_00: doesn't matter, just turn my brain off.
- 8:16SPEAKER_01: I'm going to be indulgent and, um, and ask, and ask these things.
- 8:21SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
- 8:21SPEAKER_01: I mean, look,
- 8:23SPEAKER_01: so many,
- 8:24SPEAKER_01: I feel like I've spent my entire career pretty much covering, so I,
- 8:28SPEAKER_01: I tend to cover things that are like at the very edge
- 8:30SPEAKER_01: of What's just becoming possible and the, yeah,
- 8:35SPEAKER_01: the sort of,
- 8:36SPEAKER_01: you know, not, I mean,
- 8:37SPEAKER_01: a little bit crazy,
- 8:38SPEAKER_01: like real ideas, but at the fringe end of science and technology.
- 8:42SPEAKER_01: And quite often it's things that you predicted would happen and or people
- 8:49SPEAKER_01: who were inspired by your books and ideas who then went off to make them real.
- 8:55SPEAKER_01: And then clearly we're living in this peculiar moment where AI is...
- 9:00SPEAKER_01: Lighting up in some sort of fashion.
- 9:03SPEAKER_01: And yeah, I mean, I got you here.
- 9:06SPEAKER_01: I just couldn't be more curious about what you make about this particular moment in time.
- 9:13SPEAKER_00: Yeah, well, that's pretty broad.
- 9:14SPEAKER_00: I'll see what I can do with that.
- 9:16SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 9:17SPEAKER_00: I mean, you know, for me, the whole AI...
- 9:23SPEAKER_00: You know, revolution sort of blindsided me in a lot of ways.
- 9:27SPEAKER_00: I mean, I've obviously been aware for decades
- 9:31SPEAKER_00: that there was this thing called artificial intelligence and people were working
- 9:35SPEAKER_00: on it, you know.
- 9:37SPEAKER_00: And until pretty recently, it seemed like it was just software, you know.
- 9:44SPEAKER_00: And AI was always used to refer to something that we haven't quite got working yet.
- 9:50SPEAKER_00: And that's clearly no longer the case.
- 9:53SPEAKER_00: And so after decades of kind of,
- 9:57SPEAKER_00: I guess,
- 9:58SPEAKER_00: downplaying it a little bit,
- 9:59SPEAKER_00: I've been a little slow to realize that, you know, something's happening now.
- 10:07SPEAKER_00: So I have, you know, kind of belatedly come to it and started using it.
- 10:11SPEAKER_01: I mean, that's sort of amusing.
- 10:12SPEAKER_01: Yeah,
- 10:13SPEAKER_00: I know.
- 10:14SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 10:16SPEAKER_00: But I mean,
- 10:18SPEAKER_00: when you're writing books,
- 10:20SPEAKER_00: like one thing that people may not realize is that
- 10:26SPEAKER_00: you become an instant expert
- 10:28SPEAKER_00: in whatever you're writing about and then you walk away from it.
- 10:34SPEAKER_00: And so...
- 10:36SPEAKER_00: And so people tend to assume I know a lot of things about stuff
- 10:41SPEAKER_00: that I stopped paying attention to like 30 years ago because I finished the book
- 10:47SPEAKER_00: and I'm like, okay, you know, what am I going to write about next?
- 10:50SPEAKER_00: So...
- 10:53SPEAKER_00: Um, so anyway, I mean, um, the, uh,
- 10:57SPEAKER_00: I think I'm kind of up to speed on it now as much as you can be
- 11:00SPEAKER_00: without actually working at a, at an AI lab.
- 11:04SPEAKER_00: And I've been using it, um, quite a bit, not, not for writing, but for other stuff.
- 11:09SPEAKER_01: But I mean, the,
- 11:11SPEAKER_01: you know,
- 11:11SPEAKER_01: there's people who are,
- 11:12SPEAKER_01: I guess,
- 11:13SPEAKER_01: perhaps more, um,
- 11:15SPEAKER_01: fully directly associated with something like the singularity,
- 11:17SPEAKER_01: like Ray Kurzweil,
- 11:18SPEAKER_01: although you explore These themes in your book, but there's guys I hang out with.
- 11:26SPEAKER_01: Well, I mean, this is, you know, it's not like I'm in some private company here.
- 11:30SPEAKER_01: I mean, the very well-known tech figures fully think we are living in
- 11:34SPEAKER_01: the singularity right now or whatever, the beginning of the takeoff.
- 11:39SPEAKER_01: I mean, do you have any?
- 11:40SPEAKER_00: I mean, I'm more of an S-curve guy.
- 11:44SPEAKER_00: So the only...
- 11:50SPEAKER_00: Example I can really think of where it didn't tail off at some point become
- 11:58SPEAKER_00: an S-curve was nuclear weapons.
- 12:02SPEAKER_00: Okay, so that was a case where it went from,
- 12:07SPEAKER_00: you know,
- 12:08SPEAKER_00: people in labs doing little tabletop experiments to Hydrogen bombs in like 15 years.
- 12:18SPEAKER_00: And so that was a case where there wasn't there never was really a ceiling that
- 12:26SPEAKER_00: That it tapered off to,
- 12:27SPEAKER_00: like the Russians end up building the Tsar Bomba,
- 12:31SPEAKER_00: which is like 50 megatons,
- 12:34SPEAKER_00: and basically figured out that you could go on making them bigger all you want,
- 12:41SPEAKER_00: but beyond a certain size,
- 12:42SPEAKER_00: all it does is punch a hole in the atmosphere and vent out into space.
- 12:49SPEAKER_00: So there wasn't a technical ceiling on how big you could make a bomb.
- 12:53SPEAKER_00: And the...
- 12:55SPEAKER_00: But other than that, most technologies do at some point hit some kind of natural limitation.
- 13:03SPEAKER_00: And so what seemed like an exponential curve at a certain point ends up being an S-curve.
- 13:11SPEAKER_00: So I assume that AI is one of those.
- 13:14SPEAKER_00: I could be wrong.
- 13:15SPEAKER_01: I mean, it's a weird moment because it feels like What we've done
- 13:19SPEAKER_01: so far is extremely brute force vacuuming up all these words, um,
- 13:25SPEAKER_01: kind of getting,
- 13:27SPEAKER_01: I don't know if lucky is the right word,
- 13:28SPEAKER_01: but having some things like transformers come out that unlock these new powers
- 13:33SPEAKER_01: on this stuff.
- 13:34SPEAKER_01: And then it's not at all clear to me, even though they're clearly getting better and better.
- 13:40SPEAKER_01: There is something about this that still feels very,
- 13:42SPEAKER_01: uh, almost rudimentary and early days to me.
- 13:45SPEAKER_01: And like we could sort of hit a wall, um,
- 13:49SPEAKER_01: But when you talk to the people at OpenAI and Anthropic,
- 13:54SPEAKER_01: they argue something very different,
- 13:56SPEAKER_01: that it is totally clear to them that this just keeps going from
- 14:00SPEAKER_01: the computers we put in.
- 14:02SPEAKER_00: Okay.
- 14:02SPEAKER_00: I mean, they know more than I do.
- 14:05SPEAKER_01: You're so bellow about all this.
- 14:08SPEAKER_01: I thought this would be sort of a profound moment of sorts, maybe.
- 14:11SPEAKER_00: Well, all I can do is play with it.
- 14:16SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 14:16SPEAKER_00: Play with what's publicly available, you know, see how it might be interesting or useful to me.
- 14:24SPEAKER_00: So I think right now
- 14:32SPEAKER_00: the steepness of the curve feels very palpable to a lot
- 14:38SPEAKER_00: of people because there's whole swaths of the economy that Where people are looking
- 14:45SPEAKER_00: at this and saying, okay, I think my job is becoming obsolete, right?
- 14:50SPEAKER_00: Or at least it's going to get radically transformed now.
- 14:53SPEAKER_00: And so I think that adds a strong sense of anxiety and crisis to what's going on
- 14:59SPEAKER_00: because it's obviously showing the potential to disrupt a lot of people's lives
- 15:06SPEAKER_00: and careers.
- 15:08SPEAKER_00: So I think that adds to a sense that, you know, kind of something explosive is going on.
- 15:16SPEAKER_00: But again, I just don't have enough knowledge of my own knowledge to know where it might end up.
- 15:27SPEAKER_01: There's other themes that you've written about that seem to be taking place
- 15:32SPEAKER_01: among these AI companies, or at least to me, you have them.
- 15:37SPEAKER_01: It looks to me a moment in time when corporations are clearly quite
- 15:42SPEAKER_01: a bit more powerful than the government in a lot of ways.
- 15:44SPEAKER_01: You have whatever the number is you want to put on it, four or five of these giant labs.
- 15:51SPEAKER_01: They're run by figures that at the moment all seem to kind of hate each other and are...
- 15:57SPEAKER_01: Are chasing, I mean, it's almost, it always reminds me of Lord of the Rings.
- 16:02SPEAKER_01: They're all sort of chasing the ring, but they're deeply afraid of the ring at the same time.
- 16:07SPEAKER_01: And I mean, that part could be comical at times.
- 16:12SPEAKER_01: But, you know,
- 16:12SPEAKER_01: this is something I've been writing about for a long time,
- 16:15SPEAKER_01: which was even back when,
- 16:18SPEAKER_01: like when Tesla started building a nationwide charging network and
- 16:21SPEAKER_01: then SpaceX started.
- 16:22SPEAKER_01: With its success,
- 16:23SPEAKER_01: with its rockets,
- 16:24SPEAKER_01: you could just tell that companies were doing things that governments used to do
- 16:28SPEAKER_01: and doing them much,
- 16:29SPEAKER_01: like the government seems almost incapable of doing things like this now.
- 16:33SPEAKER_01: And then you reach this point where these AI companies,
- 16:37SPEAKER_01: they have so much more computing capacity,
- 16:40SPEAKER_01: even if the,
- 16:41SPEAKER_01: I think if the US government wanted to build data centers of the scale
- 16:45SPEAKER_01: that these companies are, I'm not sure that it could.
- 16:47SPEAKER_00: Oh, that it could,
- 16:48SPEAKER_01: yeah.
- 16:49SPEAKER_01: Yeah, and so you end up in this spot where If this technology even remotely lives up
- 16:57SPEAKER_01: to its billing, the companies are in charge with something very powerful.
- 17:02SPEAKER_01: Yeah, you know, this is a very long-winded way.
- 17:04SPEAKER_01: I don't even know how much you pay attention to this stuff, but clearly...
- 17:10SPEAKER_01: One large group of people think these tech companies are evil.
- 17:15SPEAKER_01: All five of these people running these labs are to be questioned.
- 17:20SPEAKER_01: Do you come down one side or the other on any of this?
- 17:24SPEAKER_01: I mean,
- 17:31SPEAKER_00: the question that keeps coming up is,
- 17:34SPEAKER_00: do we take our foot off the gas, hit the pause button,
- 17:42SPEAKER_00: And think about this a little bit,
- 17:44SPEAKER_00: in which case China gets it, or do we keep the pedal to the metal?
- 17:57SPEAKER_00: So a funny thing about this book,
- 17:59SPEAKER_00: about Dee,
- 18:00SPEAKER_00: is that that question has a lot of parallels with what I'm talking about in Dee,
- 18:08SPEAKER_00: because I didn't Know that when I started it.
- 18:12SPEAKER_00: So I started this series a long time ago,
- 18:15SPEAKER_00: like 2012,
- 18:17SPEAKER_00: and put it aside for a long time and then kind of got back into it
- 18:21SPEAKER_00: about four years ago, four or five years, I think.
- 18:30SPEAKER_00: And the whole AI revolution has happened during the time I've been working on it.
- 18:34SPEAKER_00: So if you look at, actually, there was just a big story that broke last week.
- 18:41SPEAKER_00: About the German bomb program.
- 18:47SPEAKER_00: And because the big the big impetus behind the Manhattan Project was obviously
- 18:54SPEAKER_00: the fear that the Germans might have it.
- 18:57SPEAKER_00: OK, so in the early eventually this will will end up wrapping back around to AI,
- 19:05SPEAKER_00: by the way, but it's going to take me a minute.
- 19:09SPEAKER_00: The
- 19:13SPEAKER_00: The reactor that the Germans wanted to make to start working on
- 19:18SPEAKER_00: the bomb was uranium cubes suspended in a vat of heavy water.
- 19:24SPEAKER_00: So the uranium does the fission and the heavy water is there as a moderator to slow
- 19:29SPEAKER_00: the neutrons down.
- 19:31SPEAKER_00: And so they needed a lot of those two things.
- 19:34SPEAKER_00: And in February of 1940,
- 19:38SPEAKER_00: so it's after the invasion of Poland,
- 19:41SPEAKER_00: But it's before the invasion of Europe, the rest of Europe, I should say.
- 19:48SPEAKER_00: The head of IG Farben,
- 19:50SPEAKER_00: the soon-to-be infamous giant German chemical company,
- 19:55SPEAKER_00: sends a letter to the manager of this plant in Norway.
- 20:00SPEAKER_00: It's the only place in the world that makes heavy water.
- 20:03SPEAKER_00: And says, we want to buy all of your heavy water now.
- 20:08SPEAKER_00: And so this guy...
- 20:11SPEAKER_00: Gets in touch with his banker,
- 20:13SPEAKER_00: who's a French guy named Jacques Allier,
- 20:15SPEAKER_00: and Allier notifies the Deuxième Bureau,
- 20:18SPEAKER_00: which is the French intelligence service,
- 20:21SPEAKER_00: and they talk to physicists,
- 20:24SPEAKER_00: and the physicists are like, this is really frightening.
- 20:30SPEAKER_00: This is really important.
- 20:31SPEAKER_00: It's hard to explain why, but just take our word for it.
- 20:34SPEAKER_00: We do not want the Germans to get all of the heavy water.
- 20:39SPEAKER_00: So that happens in February.
- 20:42SPEAKER_00: By March,
- 20:43SPEAKER_00: Allie is in Oslo,
- 20:49SPEAKER_00: evacuating the existing stock of heavy water out from under the noses of
- 20:53SPEAKER_00: the Germans just right before the Germans invade Norway.
- 20:56SPEAKER_00: And he succeeds in doing that.
- 20:58SPEAKER_00: There's a whole story downstream of that that's in the book.
- 21:03SPEAKER_00: But it's in June.
- 21:06SPEAKER_00: Then that the Germans do invade westward and they overrun Belgium and Belgium has
- 21:17SPEAKER_00: the Belgian Congo, which is where uranium comes from.
- 21:21SPEAKER_00: And the first thing they do upon getting control of Belgium is to place an order
- 21:27SPEAKER_00: for basically all of the uranium they can get from the Belgian Congo mines.
- 21:33SPEAKER_01: Okay.
- 21:33SPEAKER_00: So if you're A person in the know,
- 21:36SPEAKER_00: in the intelligence services of France or England or the US,
- 21:41SPEAKER_00: and you know that they are aggressively moving to get all of the heavy water
- 21:45SPEAKER_00: and they're aggressively moving to get as much uranium as they can get their hands
- 21:51SPEAKER_00: on, then there's only one conclusion that you can safely draw from that.
- 21:56SPEAKER_00: So that's what kicks off the Manhattan Project.
- 22:04SPEAKER_00: And just last week, they they found a cube of uranium in some guy's garage somewhere.
- 22:13SPEAKER_00: He was, I think,
- 22:14SPEAKER_00: a Harvard professor who had is one of the cubes that the German nuclear project made
- 22:22SPEAKER_00: during the war that they were going to suspend in the big tank of heavy water.
- 22:26SPEAKER_00: OK. And I might get to see it in a couple of weeks.
- 22:30SPEAKER_00: But But the point being that I told you this was going to get back to AI.
- 22:40SPEAKER_00: If if all you know is,
- 22:42SPEAKER_00: you know,
- 22:44SPEAKER_00: Germany trying to corner the market on heavy water and uranium,
- 22:49SPEAKER_00: you have no further info.
- 22:51SPEAKER_00: Then the only thing you can do at that point is launch the Manhattan Project.
- 22:56SPEAKER_00: And then later on,
- 22:57SPEAKER_00: we find out, now we know that the Germans never came anywhere near making a bomb.
- 23:03SPEAKER_00: Their reactor didn't work.
- 23:04SPEAKER_00: They didn't have enough stuff.
- 23:06SPEAKER_00: They were maybe screwing up the calculations because Heisenberg wasn't a great experimentalist.
- 23:13SPEAKER_00: So it turned out to be unnecessary paranoia, but you can't know that.
- 23:20SPEAKER_00: You know, when you're in the middle of the actual war.
- 23:23SPEAKER_00: So that's kind of where we are, I think, vis-a-vis China with the whole AI thing.
- 23:29SPEAKER_00: It's like, okay, sure, if AI is scary, we could take our foot off the gas.
- 23:36SPEAKER_00: But then,
- 23:36SPEAKER_00: you know,
- 23:37SPEAKER_00: what if there's,
- 23:39SPEAKER_00: you know,
- 23:39SPEAKER_00: stuff we don't quite understand that's happening in China that would allow them
- 23:45SPEAKER_00: to seize a commanding lead?
- 23:48SPEAKER_01: This episode is brought to you by Brex.
- 23:51SPEAKER_01: I spend all of my time inside of
- 23:53SPEAKER_01: the world's most ambitious companies making rockets, semiconductors, robots.
- 23:58SPEAKER_01: Very often the business is struggling and then all of a sudden things click and take off.
- 24:04SPEAKER_01: Then the company's expenses spin out of control.
- 24:07SPEAKER_01: They either have to clamp down,
- 24:08SPEAKER_01: start counting pennies,
- 24:10SPEAKER_01: or cross their fingers,
- 24:12SPEAKER_01: hope for the best that the quarter or the year comes out okay enough.
- 24:15SPEAKER_01: Brex was built to handle exactly these situations.
- 24:18SPEAKER_01: It helps you move fast, spend smarter at the same time.
- 24:22SPEAKER_01: They've got credit cards, banking, expense management, all in one place.
- 24:26SPEAKER_01: They've got AI technology, looking over everything, taking care of tasks for you.
- 24:32SPEAKER_01: No more chasing down receipts.
- 24:35SPEAKER_01: We use Brexit Core Memory.
- 24:36SPEAKER_01: It has been a godsend in giving me back so much time.
- 24:40SPEAKER_01: Giants like Anthropic and Zoom.
- 24:43SPEAKER_01: Use Brex as well, and so do tens of thousands of startups.
- 24:47SPEAKER_01: You should use Brex,
- 24:48SPEAKER_01: and you can find out exactly how to do that by going to brex.com slash
- 24:54SPEAKER_00: Core Memory.
- 24:55SPEAKER_01: In the Manhattan Project,
- 24:57SPEAKER_01: clearly you had big personalities who were driving that,
- 24:59SPEAKER_01: but ultimately it was the government at the end of the day that owned and controlled
- 25:03SPEAKER_01: the technology for quite some time.
- 25:06SPEAKER_01: Whereas in this case, you have companies and individuals.
- 25:10SPEAKER_01: And I mean, look, everybody knows.
- 25:12SPEAKER_01: I tend to be more on the optimistic side and fascinated by all this stuff.
- 25:18SPEAKER_01: There's large, just,
- 25:20SPEAKER_01: you know,
- 25:21SPEAKER_01: I don't know when this podcast will air,
- 25:22SPEAKER_01: but as we're recording this,
- 25:24SPEAKER_01: I think we've got a movie coming out on Mark Zuckerberg,
- 25:28SPEAKER_01: Sam Altman, Elon Musk, SPF, and Elizabeth Holmes.
- 25:33SPEAKER_01: None of these movies are flattering.
- 25:36SPEAKER_01: People do not trust these people now.
- 25:39SPEAKER_01: Yeah, just as somebody who's, like,
- 25:40SPEAKER_01: explored this intellectually,
- 25:42SPEAKER_01: I'm just curious what you make of...
- 25:44SPEAKER_00: Well, I mean, the...
- 25:48SPEAKER_00: You know, you start a company.
- 25:52SPEAKER_00: If you're lucky, it grows.
- 25:53SPEAKER_00: It gets big.
- 25:55SPEAKER_00: And then you find yourself
- 25:59SPEAKER_00: Having a fiduciary responsibility,
- 26:02SPEAKER_00: a legally enforceable fiduciary responsibility to pay the investors back
- 26:09SPEAKER_00: and pay them back as much as you can.
- 26:13SPEAKER_00: And if you don't take all necessary steps to do that, then the board will replace you.
- 26:25SPEAKER_00: Unless you're really smart, that is, and you've got special shares that make that impossible.
- 26:31SPEAKER_00: But the point is still the same,
- 26:33SPEAKER_00: is that I think when you're running one of these companies,
- 26:42SPEAKER_00: you have to make certain business decisions based on business,
- 26:50SPEAKER_00: not on kind of highfalutin ethical decisions.
- 26:54SPEAKER_00: Considerations.
- 26:55SPEAKER_00: And that's the dilemma that these people are in.
- 26:57SPEAKER_00: They may not necessarily be amoral people, but they got to do what they got to do.
- 27:06SPEAKER_01: And I sense you're a little...
- 27:11SPEAKER_01: I don't know if reluctant is the right word.
- 27:14SPEAKER_01: It's hard to generalize across five, six individuals.
- 27:18SPEAKER_01: But you don't seem to want to be casting judgment on our current batch
- 27:22SPEAKER_01: of tech overlords, in my sense.
- 27:24SPEAKER_00: Well, I mean, they're all different people.
- 27:26SPEAKER_00: So, I mean, it's hard to make...
- 27:29SPEAKER_00: I'm trying to speak in general terms.
- 27:33SPEAKER_00: And so what I've said is kind of broadly true of anybody in that position.
- 27:38SPEAKER_00: I don't know the specific...
- 27:41SPEAKER_00: Decisions that these individuals have to make necessarily.
- 27:47SPEAKER_01: When we were talking about China,
- 27:48SPEAKER_01: how much do you pay attention to what's going on in China at the moment from a tech
- 27:54SPEAKER_01: and science standpoint?
- 27:55SPEAKER_00: Tech and science.
- 27:55SPEAKER_00: I mean, I don't have any great insights that go
- 28:00SPEAKER_00: beyond what another reasonably well-informed person would know.
- 28:05SPEAKER_00: I don't have a lot of contacts there.
- 28:08SPEAKER_00: I don't visit there.
- 28:11SPEAKER_00: So I don't know if I can be super interesting about that.
- 28:14SPEAKER_01: No, I find it fascinating.
- 28:19SPEAKER_01: I have become quite convinced that they will be leading our technological future.
- 28:23SPEAKER_01: Oh, yeah.
- 28:23SPEAKER_00: There's all kinds of evidence to support that.
- 28:26SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
- 28:27SPEAKER_01: And I didn't know if you'd played out in your head maybe what that looks like at all.
- 28:32SPEAKER_01: How much do you follow the brain-computer interface stuff that's going on?
- 28:38SPEAKER_00: I, you know, have, I've known a couple people who've gotten involved in that stuff.
- 28:43SPEAKER_00: I don't, I mean,
- 28:49SPEAKER_00: it's obviously great for,
- 28:51SPEAKER_00: you know,
- 28:52SPEAKER_00: if you've got ALS,
- 28:54SPEAKER_00: let's say, you know, or locked in syndrome or something like that.
- 28:59SPEAKER_00: So, so that's wonderful.
- 29:02SPEAKER_00: I don't, I'm, my whole life and career is, Everything that makes me happy is about words.
- 29:08SPEAKER_00: It's about translating concepts into words and then words back into concepts.
- 29:16SPEAKER_00: So the interface of letters on a page is what I like.
- 29:19SPEAKER_00: It's where I'm happy.
- 29:22SPEAKER_00: I've never felt any particular desire to have something different.
- 29:27SPEAKER_00: So I've tended,
- 29:29SPEAKER_00: I guess,
- 29:29SPEAKER_00: not to pay super close attention to that stuff just
- 29:32SPEAKER_00: because I don't see how it's applicable to my life.
- 29:36SPEAKER_01: This is so different than I was picturing in my head.
- 29:40SPEAKER_01: I just thought you'd be obsessed with all this stuff and where it was at.
- 29:44SPEAKER_00: I mean, it's still a little too abstract for me, I guess.
- 29:49SPEAKER_00: So if I could look at specific examples of what people are doing with it,
- 29:54SPEAKER_00: then maybe it would be more something I could react to.
- 30:00SPEAKER_00: But I think we are embodied creatures, and I think that...
- 30:07SPEAKER_00: Bypassing the body, I just don't understand it.
- 30:13SPEAKER_00: I write with a fountain pen on paper.
- 30:18SPEAKER_00: The full engagement of the body,
- 30:21SPEAKER_00: not just the abstract stuff up here,
- 30:24SPEAKER_00: but the motor cortex and down the arm to the hand,
- 30:30SPEAKER_00: that is all part of thinking to me.
- 30:32SPEAKER_00: It's not It's not that there's thinking,
- 30:34SPEAKER_00: which is this separate thing up here,
- 30:37SPEAKER_00: and then this chunk of meat attached to it that's kind of dumb and stupid.
- 30:42SPEAKER_00: It's all, you know, we're all one big kind of brainified, you know, creature.
- 30:48SPEAKER_00: So, I mean,
- 30:49SPEAKER_00: I guess it's an interesting thought experiment to think about bypassing the body,
- 30:54SPEAKER_00: but I can't get any real traction on it myself.
- 30:59SPEAKER_01: I read you talking about this and how you write.
- 31:02SPEAKER_01: I was envious when I was younger in my teenage years.
- 31:07SPEAKER_01: Always had the notebook and was writing short stories and things like that.
- 31:10SPEAKER_01: But my handwriting is so bad that I could barely read it then.
- 31:14SPEAKER_01: Couldn't
- 31:15SPEAKER_01: read your own handwriting?
- 31:17SPEAKER_01: Wow, that's
- 31:17SPEAKER_00: pretty bad.
- 31:19SPEAKER_01: Like, okay,
- 31:20SPEAKER_01: but I wouldn't want to write an entire book and then have
- 31:22SPEAKER_01: to transcribe what I've done.
- 31:26SPEAKER_01: But that sensation you're talking about, I do miss that.
- 31:31SPEAKER_01: I feel like I am totally a different, I think, quite differently person.
- 31:38SPEAKER_01: Writing than I do just speaking what's coming out of my...
- 31:42SPEAKER_01: Like when I think about, oh,
- 31:43SPEAKER_01: what would it be like if you had a BCI and you could just think out the thoughts,
- 31:47SPEAKER_01: I think I would do really quite poorly because there is something
- 31:50SPEAKER_01: about this movement and this process of how the words get shaped that feels
- 31:57SPEAKER_01: so natural.
- 31:58SPEAKER_00: I think so.
- 31:59SPEAKER_00: I mean, I got really interested in...
- 32:03SPEAKER_00: Here's a weird like side...
- 32:06SPEAKER_00: I think it's a related but weird thing.
- 32:09SPEAKER_00: So I started watching a lot of WNBA and so watched a lot of video of Caitlin Clark.
- 32:20SPEAKER_00: And she does something that Michael Jordan used to do,
- 32:25SPEAKER_00: which is that Basically,
- 32:28SPEAKER_00: if you're on the opposing team and you see their tongue come out,
- 32:32SPEAKER_00: you know something bad is about to happen to you.
- 32:35SPEAKER_00: So it's the moments of maximum concentration when they're about
- 32:41SPEAKER_00: to do some amazing thing,
- 32:44SPEAKER_00: athletic feat,
- 32:45SPEAKER_00: that suddenly the tongue is sticking out and then they do the amazing thing.
- 32:50SPEAKER_00: And then sometimes after it's done,
- 32:54SPEAKER_00: The tongue comes out again when they're exulting in a dunk or an amazing shot or
- 33:02SPEAKER_00: a great pass or whatever.
- 33:04SPEAKER_00: And so I was kind of thinking about the whole tongue thing because it was
- 33:09SPEAKER_00: a Michael Jordan thing and you see it with some other great athletes.
- 33:13SPEAKER_00: Why would you do that?
- 33:16SPEAKER_00: There's got to be a reason, right?
- 33:17SPEAKER_00: So...
- 33:24SPEAKER_00: You know,
- 33:25SPEAKER_00: your brain at that moment fully engaged in taking
- 33:29SPEAKER_00: in this whole sensory world around you and every muscle in your body kind of working
- 33:37SPEAKER_00: in concert to carry out a three-dimensional plan.
- 33:44SPEAKER_00: You know, what's the point of sticking your tongue out?
- 33:47SPEAKER_00: And I don't know the answer, but there must be a reason.
- 33:51SPEAKER_00: And, you know, one thing that...
- 33:56SPEAKER_00: The curse to me is that,
- 33:57SPEAKER_00: you know, uh,
- 33:58SPEAKER_00: your, your tongue is, um, I don't know if it, if it never touches the spinal cord.
- 34:05SPEAKER_00: I don't know if there's nerves that go straight from your brain to your tongue
- 34:08SPEAKER_00: without going through your spinal cord or,
- 34:11SPEAKER_00: um, or if it's just very, very high up in the spinal cord.
- 34:16SPEAKER_00: But, um, you know, maybe that's part of it.
- 34:20SPEAKER_00: Um, and, and, um,
- 34:23SPEAKER_00: Kind of to the earlier point about BCIs,
- 34:30SPEAKER_00: the human tongue does amazing stuff when you think about speech.
- 34:36SPEAKER_00: I mean, it's this multivalent tool.
- 34:39SPEAKER_00: We use it to eat, obviously.
- 34:42SPEAKER_00: But...
- 34:46SPEAKER_00: But we also use it in speech.
- 34:49SPEAKER_00: And speech is one of the things that differentiates us from primates or other higher primates.
- 35:01SPEAKER_00: So this is a question for people who study evolution and neurology,
- 35:09SPEAKER_00: but what's the evolutionary pathway
- 35:14SPEAKER_00: Where, um, we,
- 35:17SPEAKER_00: uh, where early humans kind of repurposed this basically food swallowing machine.
- 35:25SPEAKER_00: Right.
- 35:26SPEAKER_00: To, to make sounds, uh, to, to speak in a way that I think led to, um,
- 35:35SPEAKER_00: Led to us very rapidly lapping all of the other animals in the world in terms
- 35:40SPEAKER_00: of our brain size and our brain complexity.
- 35:46SPEAKER_00: So that's one of the things that I...
- 35:55SPEAKER_00: It's not really a clear train of thought or a clear conclusion,
- 35:59SPEAKER_00: but when I think about brain-computer interfaces, I'm like, well...
- 36:07SPEAKER_00: What's the, are we gonna bypass the tongue?
- 36:13SPEAKER_00: And what does that mean for an embodied creature to not have to use that weird,
- 36:20SPEAKER_00: complicated muscle anymore?
- 36:22SPEAKER_01: Yeah, okay.
- 36:24SPEAKER_01: So I've spent a lot of time on the BCI.
- 36:26SPEAKER_01: I've been filming a Neuralink documentary and hanging out with the patients.
- 36:30SPEAKER_01: And like you said,
- 36:31SPEAKER_01: I mean, if you have ALS or you're paralyzed, I mean, It's quite obvious what we do.
- 36:36SPEAKER_01: Then I try to play it forward in my head and I'm like,
- 36:39SPEAKER_01: what superpower would I be sort of wanting from this?
- 36:45SPEAKER_01: I mean, you know,
- 36:47SPEAKER_01: we're already at the point where if I wanted to be controlling a robotic arm
- 36:51SPEAKER_01: or something like that with my mind, I basically could be.
- 36:54SPEAKER_01: Or if I had a prosthetic or an extra arm, I could.
- 36:57SPEAKER_01: It's like, I don't know if I would want that.
- 37:00SPEAKER_01: We can't really...
- 37:01SPEAKER_01: Put information in yet in any like meaningful way.
- 37:06SPEAKER_01: Although,
- 37:06SPEAKER_01: you know,
- 37:07SPEAKER_01: the thought of just like in The Matrix downloading Kung Fu or Spanish
- 37:12SPEAKER_01: or something like that seems appealing.
- 37:14SPEAKER_01: My favorite is the one that I like feel on some sort of visceral level
- 37:19SPEAKER_01: and I don't know if it would be good or bad is more of like the arrival style where
- 37:22SPEAKER_01: the aliens are communicating with a This symbol and it's,
- 37:27SPEAKER_01: I do feel like our words are limited and that like if I go to a concert and I'm,
- 37:33SPEAKER_01: it's like hitting me in this euphoric way and you almost want to share that with
- 37:38SPEAKER_01: the person next to you as you express it, you,
- 37:41SPEAKER_01: I don't really have a mechanism to convey to them what I'm feeling in my body
- 37:46SPEAKER_01: and head and I have this, this
- 37:48SPEAKER_00: You'd have to go home and write poetry.
- 37:50SPEAKER_01: Yeah, but even then, it still wouldn't be as visceral.
- 37:54SPEAKER_01: Of chemicals and energy and stuff.
- 37:56SPEAKER_01: And I wonder, I do sometimes wonder if we could get somewhere like that with BCI.
- 38:03SPEAKER_01: But maybe that's horrible.
- 38:04SPEAKER_01: I don't know if we all want to experience each other that way.
- 38:08SPEAKER_00: Well, and then it becomes, if it's just a bunch of bits...
- 38:14SPEAKER_00: Then it's repeatable.
- 38:15SPEAKER_00: And so, you know,
- 38:16SPEAKER_00: you could just sit there like the monkey hitting the lever,
- 38:21SPEAKER_00: you know,
- 38:22SPEAKER_00: hitting your pleasure centers over and over again to inhabit this kind of fake,
- 38:28SPEAKER_00: euphoric, imaginary world.
- 38:32SPEAKER_01: And I'll, like, veer off.
- 38:34SPEAKER_01: There's a lot of questioning.
- 38:35SPEAKER_01: But, you know, okay, so I'm here.
- 38:36SPEAKER_01: I'm covering BCI stuff.
- 38:38SPEAKER_01: I'm covering...
- 38:39SPEAKER_01: Artificial wombs, you know, everything.
- 38:43SPEAKER_01: There is this weird class of,
- 38:45SPEAKER_01: especially in biotech, things that are right on the edge of becoming possible now.
- 38:51SPEAKER_01: As I stated, I mean, I tend to get excited about these things.
- 38:55SPEAKER_01: Obviously, other people can see them in quite dystopian points of view.
- 39:02SPEAKER_01: And so there's nothing about this particular moment
- 39:06SPEAKER_01: in 2026 that's making you tilt Utopian or dystopian one way more.
- 39:12SPEAKER_01: Like this moment feels a little unnerving and different.
- 39:16SPEAKER_00: I mean, so if I've got ALS, then the biggest problem in my life is that.
- 39:24SPEAKER_00: And if a BCI helps with that, then BCI is solving a huge problem.
- 39:29SPEAKER_00: It's really important.
- 39:30SPEAKER_00: Okay, so that's great.
- 39:32SPEAKER_00: For me,
- 39:33SPEAKER_00: the two big problems that I'm scared of are too much carbon in the atmosphere and
- 39:39SPEAKER_00: And the fact that people cannot agree on what is real.
- 39:44SPEAKER_00: OK. And so any technology or doesn't have to be a technology, but,
- 39:52SPEAKER_00: you know,
- 39:52SPEAKER_00: any any thing of any action of any kind
- 39:56SPEAKER_00: that addresses those problems is really interesting to me.
- 40:01SPEAKER_00: I'm all over it.
- 40:02SPEAKER_00: OK. OK.
- 40:03SPEAKER_00: But if it's not like.
- 40:06SPEAKER_00: ECI, I don't see how it solves any problems that I'm currently having.
- 40:11SPEAKER_01: I think you wrote an essay,
- 40:12SPEAKER_01: I think it was 2011-ish in Wired about the struggle to come up with new big ideas.
- 40:20SPEAKER_01: And if I remember right,
- 40:23SPEAKER_01: I mean, there was at least part of it that was things have become so specialized.
- 40:29SPEAKER_01: You know, you have to be so...
- 40:32SPEAKER_01: Knowledgeable about this minutiae in your field that it was kind of hard
- 40:35SPEAKER_01: to think maybe broad enough and be able to push things for you.
- 40:38SPEAKER_01: There was more to it than that.
- 40:41SPEAKER_01: And when you wrote that,
- 40:42SPEAKER_01: I remember,
- 40:43SPEAKER_01: I think in just a couple of years earlier,
- 40:45SPEAKER_01: this guy,
- 40:46SPEAKER_01: Jonathan Huebner,
- 40:47SPEAKER_01: who was in the Navy,
- 40:49SPEAKER_01: he'd written this quite a paper that a lot of people had paid attention to,
- 40:53SPEAKER_01: which is he'd gone through all the patent record and was trying to argue
- 40:57SPEAKER_01: that Similar thing
- 40:59SPEAKER_01: that we just weren't having these big world changing breakthroughs anymore.
- 41:03SPEAKER_01: We'd kind of gone to the edges of the tree of invention.
- 41:06SPEAKER_01: And so I was thinking I paid a lot of attention to that essay.
- 41:09SPEAKER_01: And then I noticed that yours was nearish in time.
- 41:13SPEAKER_01: And I was thinking back to that moment in time.
- 41:16SPEAKER_01: And, you know, a lot of it.
- 41:19SPEAKER_01: Clearly now,
- 41:20SPEAKER_01: if you look,
- 41:21SPEAKER_01: AI would be something that is quite different,
- 41:23SPEAKER_01: at least there were hints of it back in 2011, but nothing like we have now.
- 41:28SPEAKER_01: And then there's things like a ton of fusion startups now.
- 41:32SPEAKER_01: There's people doing some interesting things in space,
- 41:34SPEAKER_01: although I don't know if it would be revolution in some ways, but in other ways not.
- 41:40SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I was just kind of curious.
- 41:42SPEAKER_01: It's been, I would think, 15 years since you wrote that.
- 41:47SPEAKER_01: Do you still feel the same way?
- 41:49SPEAKER_00: Well, the, um, I think that came out of, uh,
- 41:52SPEAKER_01: I totally got the date wrong.
- 41:53SPEAKER_00: No, no, that sounds about right.
- 41:55SPEAKER_00: I had, um, uh,
- 41:58SPEAKER_00: I don't know if it was in Wired though, but, um,
- 42:01SPEAKER_00: I had been on a panel discussion with Michael Crow, the president of Arizona state.
- 42:06SPEAKER_00: And, and he was sort of, uh,
- 42:09SPEAKER_00: jokingly saying,
- 42:10SPEAKER_00: you know,
- 42:10SPEAKER_00: um, you know, we've got all this technology and, you know, uh, We're ready to go.
- 42:17SPEAKER_00: You know, we're ambitious.
- 42:19SPEAKER_00: And you science fiction writers are letting down the side
- 42:22SPEAKER_00: because all you do is write kind of sad dystopian garbage that,
- 42:27SPEAKER_00: you know, depicts a future we don't want to live in.
- 42:30SPEAKER_00: So why don't you,
- 42:31SPEAKER_00: you know,
- 42:31SPEAKER_00: shape up and write some futures that are worthy of being made real,
- 42:38SPEAKER_00: you know, and kind of go back to your
- 42:43SPEAKER_00: You know,
- 42:44SPEAKER_00: be more productive members of the society basically by inspiring engineers
- 42:48SPEAKER_00: to do cool things.
- 42:50SPEAKER_00: And so out of that came a book that was about then.
- 42:54SPEAKER_00: I mean, I did write a piece about it.
- 42:59SPEAKER_00: But I worked with the Arizona State people.
- 43:04SPEAKER_00: We brought out an anthology of science fiction stories called Hieroglyph
- 43:10SPEAKER_00: that was meant to depict more kind of positive futures.
- 43:18SPEAKER_00: And so my contribution to that was a story about making a tall tower.
- 43:26SPEAKER_00: Which was kind of the one,
- 43:28SPEAKER_00: you know,
- 43:32SPEAKER_00: of all the alternative space launch technologies that we looked at in
- 43:37SPEAKER_00: the early years of Blue,
- 43:40SPEAKER_00: that was the one that kind of stuck with me as,
- 43:42SPEAKER_00: hey, you know, this is actually worth doing.
- 43:46SPEAKER_00: Just for the non-space nerds for Blue Origin.
- 43:49SPEAKER_00: Blue Origin, yeah.
- 43:50SPEAKER_00: At the time it was...
- 43:52SPEAKER_00: It was Blue Operations, LLC, but then it became Blue Origin.
- 44:03SPEAKER_00: So anyway, this is a common theme.
- 44:09SPEAKER_00: I've heard this from a lot of people, even within the last few months.
- 44:13SPEAKER_00: I've heard multiple times from people in the tech world,
- 44:18SPEAKER_00: investors,
- 44:19SPEAKER_00: mostly investors,
- 44:20SPEAKER_00: who I kind of like, hey,
- 44:22SPEAKER_00: you know, uh,
- 44:24SPEAKER_00: you know,
- 44:24SPEAKER_00: is there any way we can foster the, uh,
- 44:28SPEAKER_00: the writing of,
- 44:29SPEAKER_00: you know,
- 44:30SPEAKER_00: science fiction that's inspiring and that makes people want to go out and build,
- 44:35SPEAKER_00: build cool things again?
- 44:37SPEAKER_01: I hear this all the time.
- 44:38SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
- 44:39SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
- 44:39SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
- 44:39SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 44:40SPEAKER_01: No, it's, uh, I was actually, I was going to ask you about this very thing.
- 44:43SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 44:43SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 44:43SPEAKER_00: So I'm, um, I, I just, uh,
- 44:47SPEAKER_00: three weeks ago, um,
- 44:49SPEAKER_00: Was one of the judges on a SpaceX,
- 44:53SPEAKER_00: not SpaceX,
- 44:54SPEAKER_00: XPRIZE
- 44:57SPEAKER_00: competition to make films
- 45:02SPEAKER_00: that presented technology and particularly AI in
- 45:05SPEAKER_00: a somewhat more encouraging light.
- 45:09SPEAKER_01: Go ahead.
- 45:09SPEAKER_01: Do you feel like you at all have a...
- 45:12SPEAKER_01: Okay, so I've been through this exercise.
- 45:15SPEAKER_01: After ChatGBT came out,
- 45:17SPEAKER_01: There were a bunch of people in Silicon Valley who kind of got together.
- 45:20SPEAKER_01: It wasn't like a cloak and dagger thing, but it was a little under the radar.
- 45:23SPEAKER_01: And it was like, can we get, people don't know what's coming.
- 45:28SPEAKER_01: We see what's coming.
- 45:31SPEAKER_01: We don't want to scare them.
- 45:32SPEAKER_01: And we're pretty optimistic about what's happening.
- 45:36SPEAKER_01: We need to very quickly make some science fiction mass media that's on Netflix
- 45:41SPEAKER_01: or somewhere where enough people will see it that people can...
- 45:44SPEAKER_00: When was this?
- 45:45SPEAKER_01: This is like...
- 45:46SPEAKER_01: This is probably like 2024-ish.
- 45:47SPEAKER_01: Oh, okay.
- 45:50SPEAKER_01: It's possible it's all spilled over and spilled out in some ways.
- 45:53SPEAKER_00: Yeah, or a little parallel evolution or something.
- 45:56SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 45:56SPEAKER_00: It was co-sponsored by Google, 100 zeros.
- 45:59SPEAKER_01: Okay, so mine's a little different, but...
- 46:02SPEAKER_01: Okay.
- 46:02SPEAKER_01: And...
- 46:05SPEAKER_01: You know, and so I'm sitting here in these conversations.
- 46:07SPEAKER_01: It's like I sort of get the spirit of it.
- 46:10SPEAKER_01: Almost all good science fiction tends to have things going wrong in some way for
- 46:16SPEAKER_01: the most part, I think, is fair to say.
- 46:19SPEAKER_01: And then,
- 46:19SPEAKER_01: you know,
- 46:19SPEAKER_01: so you're sort of in this battle of,
- 46:21SPEAKER_01: well, you can't just write some everything is wonderful type thing.
- 46:26SPEAKER_01: And the tech people tend to struggle with that.
- 46:29SPEAKER_01: And then...
- 46:31SPEAKER_01: Struggle quite badly.
- 46:33SPEAKER_01: And then,
- 46:33SPEAKER_01: you know,
- 46:34SPEAKER_01: it's not all clear to me,
- 46:35SPEAKER_01: like someone like you,
- 46:38SPEAKER_01: you know,
- 46:38SPEAKER_01: you write about these futures where things do go wrong,
- 46:41SPEAKER_01: but you're clearly very interested in technology.
- 46:43SPEAKER_01: And so, yeah, I mean, I don't know.
- 46:44SPEAKER_01: So that is something that appeals to you on some level,
- 46:46SPEAKER_01: is that you do think you can...
- 46:49SPEAKER_00: Well, I'm happy to help, you know, foster that stuff.
- 46:53SPEAKER_00: You know, it's a little side...
- 46:55SPEAKER_00: Project or series of little side projects that doesn't,
- 46:58SPEAKER_00: you know, I mean, it could have some kind of constructive effect.
- 47:02SPEAKER_00: It could,
- 47:03SPEAKER_00: you know,
- 47:03SPEAKER_00: maybe help some writers or filmmakers, you know, get some traction somewhere.
- 47:09SPEAKER_00: And, you know, like you say, a lot of people in the tech world are keen on the idea.
- 47:20SPEAKER_00: So, you know.
- 47:22SPEAKER_00: Clearly make the worst films, though.
- 47:25SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 47:25SPEAKER_00: Well, so, I mean,
- 47:27SPEAKER_00: this is a kind of hobby horse of mine for a long time,
- 47:31SPEAKER_00: but I do think that, um,
- 47:35SPEAKER_00: in my theory is that the big bang of this was the,
- 47:39SPEAKER_00: the last shot of Planet of the Apes where you see the Statue of Liberty,
- 47:45SPEAKER_00: it's fallen over,
- 47:46SPEAKER_00: you know,
- 47:47SPEAKER_00: and, um, it's a super powerful image and, um, uh, But a very inexpensive one, right?
- 47:56SPEAKER_00: So, I mean,
- 47:57SPEAKER_00: they got a model of the Statue of Liberty and they kicked it over
- 48:00SPEAKER_00: and threw some dirt on it.
- 48:01SPEAKER_00: And, you know, so that was a really cheap and easy way to make a very powerful image.
- 48:09SPEAKER_00: And so you kind of see this in a lot of post-apocalyptic dystopian movies.
- 48:15SPEAKER_00: You see examples where they've just taken something that exists today And sort of,
- 48:24SPEAKER_00: you know, bang it around and throw some dirt on it.
- 48:29SPEAKER_00: And, you know, it looks cool.
- 48:31SPEAKER_00: And it doesn't require a big imaginative investment, okay?
- 48:38SPEAKER_00: Whereas if you're trying to
- 48:42SPEAKER_00: show a more
- 48:45SPEAKER_00: positive kind of future, you know, you do have to...
- 48:51SPEAKER_00: To do some pretty hard imagining.
- 48:57SPEAKER_00: At this XPRIZE thing I was at,
- 49:01SPEAKER_00: one part of the program was a documentary called The 60-Year Mission,
- 49:09SPEAKER_00: which is a documentary about the creation of Star Trek and Gene Roddenberry and all
- 49:15SPEAKER_00: of that.
- 49:16SPEAKER_00: And they had to put some energy into imagining what that future world was going to look like.
- 49:23SPEAKER_00: And so that's the kind of thing that you have to do if you're going
- 49:28SPEAKER_00: to create any kind of positive science fiction.
- 49:32SPEAKER_00: And I don't think it's tremendously hard,
- 49:36SPEAKER_00: but it seems to be just the path of least resistance for people.
- 49:43SPEAKER_00: For movie companies and TV companies to kind of go the dystopian route.
- 49:49SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 49:49SPEAKER_01: Okay.
- 49:50SPEAKER_01: Okay.
- 49:50SPEAKER_01: So they have to try harder, be more creative.
- 49:53SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I think so.
- 49:56SPEAKER_01: So there's a person on our staff.
- 49:58SPEAKER_01: His name is Kamen Hodges.
- 49:59SPEAKER_01: He's an enormous fan of yours.
- 50:02SPEAKER_01: It is his life's ambition to see Snow Crash made into a movie.
- 50:09SPEAKER_01: He has an idea where...
- 50:11SPEAKER_01: I'll read it to you.
- 50:12SPEAKER_01: I don't know if he expressed it.
- 50:14SPEAKER_01: I have a question.
- 50:21SPEAKER_01: He wants to adapt it exactly how Hollywood...
- 50:25SPEAKER_01: Would have treated it in 1992 when the book came out.
- 50:28SPEAKER_01: Pretend it's a lost, unfinished artifact that got shelved before release.
- 50:34SPEAKER_01: Blair Witch style marketing.
- 50:36SPEAKER_01: And I, you know, that I was looking through all your works and you've addressed this before.
- 50:41SPEAKER_01: But my God, I mean, if anyone should have...
- 50:45SPEAKER_01: Tons of TV shows and movies based on their work.
- 50:48SPEAKER_01: It's you,
- 50:49SPEAKER_01: you seem like me to have,
- 50:51SPEAKER_01: in a much bigger way,
- 50:53SPEAKER_01: to have been caught in some kind of the typical Hollywood option rights hell
- 50:58SPEAKER_01: where things get started and don't get finished and they just get,
- 51:02SPEAKER_01: it's crazy to me though.
- 51:03SPEAKER_01: I mean, this must be frustrating.
- 51:06SPEAKER_01: Well, first of all, to your friends... Can we have the rights to Snow Crash?
- 51:11SPEAKER_00: To your friend's point, there was actually...
- 51:14SPEAKER_00: I mean, I've been watching people think about adapting Snow Crash since it came out.
- 51:21SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 51:21SPEAKER_00: Okay.
- 51:22SPEAKER_00: And at every stage along the way,
- 51:26SPEAKER_00: I've kind of said, boy,
- 51:28SPEAKER_00: it's a good thing that they never made that movie in 1995 or 2000 or 2005 because...
- 51:36SPEAKER_00: Because just a few years later, the computer graphics had gotten so much better.
- 51:42SPEAKER_00: So I remember having gotten so much better that it would it would look dated.
- 51:49SPEAKER_00: OK, in the way like the original Tron looks.
- 51:52SPEAKER_00: Yeah, looks dated today.
- 51:54SPEAKER_00: So I had a during one of these during one phase of this
- 52:02SPEAKER_00: Conversation, one of these guys had the idea to use HDR photography.
- 52:10SPEAKER_00: Instead of rendering the metaverse using computer graphics,
- 52:14SPEAKER_00: just shoot it straight,
- 52:16SPEAKER_00: but then manipulate the film to kind of send you a message
- 52:21SPEAKER_00: that this is actually generated by computer graphics, right?
- 52:26SPEAKER_00: And so that was the first point when People began to think, okay,
- 52:34SPEAKER_00: the graphics are so good that in this future world,
- 52:37SPEAKER_00: you know, it's just going to look like photography.
- 52:40SPEAKER_00: And now, of course, we're to the point where it simply would look like photography.
- 52:44SPEAKER_00: You wouldn't be able to tell it apart from...
- 52:48SPEAKER_00: Uh, from,
- 52:49SPEAKER_00: from something that really happened unless there was some other visual cue,
- 52:52SPEAKER_00: like something that was physically impossible, you know, in, in the scene.
- 52:57SPEAKER_00: So, um, so, so, uh,
- 53:00SPEAKER_00: I just found that an interesting, uh,
- 53:02SPEAKER_00: reflection from the, the, the,
- 53:05SPEAKER_00: the message you just read, um,
- 53:07SPEAKER_00: because, um,
- 53:09SPEAKER_00: you know, you,
- 53:10SPEAKER_00: you could kind of flip that on its back and,
- 53:13SPEAKER_00: um, Go ahead and make it using 1995 Doom.
- 53:17SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I think that's what he wants, yeah.
- 53:21SPEAKER_01: Can we do that?
- 53:21SPEAKER_01: Is it still tied up?
- 53:23SPEAKER_00: It is.
- 53:25SPEAKER_01: It is, yeah.
- 53:27SPEAKER_01: You started Blue Origin with Jeff Bezos.
- 53:31SPEAKER_01: I assume you guys are still friendly.
- 53:33SPEAKER_01: I mean, he owns an entire media organization.
- 53:37SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
- 53:39SPEAKER_00: Well, it's at a different media organization.
- 53:43SPEAKER_00: It has been for a long time.
- 53:46SPEAKER_00: So
- 53:49SPEAKER_00: it's been at Paramount and Paramount slash Skydance for a long time.
- 53:54SPEAKER_00: So they just write you a check every year?
- 53:58SPEAKER_00: That was true for a while and then they just bought it.
- 54:00SPEAKER_00: Okay.
- 54:01SPEAKER_00: So at some point they're like, we have to stop writing the analyst check every year.
- 54:06SPEAKER_01: I mean...
- 54:07SPEAKER_01: Like, honestly, tell me to fuck off if I'm just going too far.
- 54:11SPEAKER_01: But, like,
- 54:11SPEAKER_01: there's no way in hell Jeff must want to make at least some handful
- 54:17SPEAKER_01: of things you've written.
- 54:18SPEAKER_00: Well, I think they did have Seven Eves for a bit.
- 54:25SPEAKER_00: I think they might have had Snow Crash.
- 54:29SPEAKER_00: No, they didn't.
- 54:33SPEAKER_00: But he delegates those kinds of decisions to the people who run those organizations.
- 54:38SPEAKER_00: That's stupid.
- 54:44SPEAKER_00: But yeah, I mean, it's a mystery.
- 54:48SPEAKER_00: It's a tragedy is what it is.
- 54:51SPEAKER_00: Well, yeah.
- 54:52SPEAKER_00: I mean, it's given me, I think, some kind of...
- 54:57SPEAKER_00: Some insights and some thoughts about the nature of that business,
- 55:02SPEAKER_00: how it works, how it doesn't work.
- 55:06SPEAKER_01: You've got this started, is it Wenair?
- 55:09SPEAKER_00: Wenair, yeah.
- 55:11SPEAKER_01: I mean, I was reading about it.
- 55:12SPEAKER_01: I think I get it,
- 55:13SPEAKER_01: but I mean,
- 55:13SPEAKER_01: so you're trying to use AI to let people create these worlds from fictional works,
- 55:21SPEAKER_01: but you'd be able to kind of change them a bit.
- 55:25SPEAKER_01: Or it's like if Lord of the Rings, I mean, you're reading...
- 55:28SPEAKER_01: Yeah, and if you look at the...
- 55:44SPEAKER_00: The fan reaction to Rings of Power,
- 55:48SPEAKER_00: there's multiple subreddits full of serious Lord of the Rings fans talking
- 55:55SPEAKER_00: about how much they don't like it.
- 56:01SPEAKER_00: And so that's been the fate of fans.
- 56:05SPEAKER_00: For a long time, right?
- 56:06SPEAKER_00: Is that there's all these fictional universes that have very intense fan groups.
- 56:13SPEAKER_00: And this is how entertainment works now.
- 56:16SPEAKER_00: I was at Comic-Con in New York just a few days ago.
- 56:19SPEAKER_00: And that's like a giant monument to multiple fandoms obsessed with multiple story worlds.
- 56:29SPEAKER_00: And their only way to see these things get translated into visual media...
- 56:35SPEAKER_00: Has been to, to wait for Hollywood to disgorge something.
- 56:41SPEAKER_01: Right.
- 56:41SPEAKER_00: You know, sometimes after decades.
- 56:43SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 56:44SPEAKER_00: You know, and, and, and very expensively.
- 56:46SPEAKER_00: And then, um, a lot of times they're not happy with, with the result.
- 56:52SPEAKER_00: Right.
- 56:52SPEAKER_00: As we can all think of examples of,
- 56:54SPEAKER_00: you know,
- 56:55SPEAKER_00: like the last season of Game of Thrones or what have you, where, um,
- 57:00SPEAKER_00: if you're a fan of the, um,
- 57:03SPEAKER_00: Source material and you know the source material,
- 57:06SPEAKER_00: you can just see that,
- 57:08SPEAKER_00: oh my God, the person who wrote this scene doesn't understand that character at all.
- 57:13SPEAKER_00: It's unsatisfying.
- 57:14SPEAKER_00: Yeah, or the showrunners, you know, what were they thinking?
- 57:18SPEAKER_00: So there's this kind of frustrating situation for fandoms who just want
- 57:24SPEAKER_00: to see stories told in their favorite worlds.
- 57:27SPEAKER_01: So what?
- 57:28SPEAKER_01: I mean, but are you guys, do you have massive...
- 57:32SPEAKER_01: Compute to go power this?
- 57:34SPEAKER_01: I don't know.
- 57:34SPEAKER_00: What state is that?
- 57:35SPEAKER_00: No, we're not using Gen AI video.
- 57:42SPEAKER_01: Oh, that's right.
- 57:42SPEAKER_01: You're doing a Unity thing, right?
- 57:44SPEAKER_00: Unreal.
- 57:45SPEAKER_00: Oh, off a game engine.
- 57:47SPEAKER_00: Unreal editor for Fortnite.
- 57:48SPEAKER_00: Sorry.
- 57:50SPEAKER_00: The generation of the pixels happens at the edge using tried and true game engines
- 57:56SPEAKER_00: and game engine compatible hardware.
- 58:00SPEAKER_00: So we're not hitting data centers for just churning out lots of pixels.
- 58:09SPEAKER_00: But there's all kinds of other ways that you can use AI to assist people
- 58:14SPEAKER_00: in writing Writing scripts or to power sort of AI-powered non-player characters
- 58:22SPEAKER_00: in these worlds.
- 58:24SPEAKER_00: There's a bunch of ways that AI can be kind of efficiently used,
- 58:29SPEAKER_00: I think, that don't
- 58:33SPEAKER_00: take creative agency away from the creator.
- 58:39SPEAKER_00: We're working with a company called Dreamlands.ai that has a system that
- 58:46SPEAKER_00: That enabled us to generate a realistic environment in the universe of Pride
- 58:55SPEAKER_00: and Prejudice incredibly efficiently.
- 59:00SPEAKER_00: Is that in the public domain?
- 59:02SPEAKER_00: Well, that's the thing is that, yeah, certainly Pride and Prejudice is.
- 59:07SPEAKER_00: So you can't do Snow Crash because somebody has it, but you can do
- 59:10SPEAKER_01: somebody else's.
- 59:12SPEAKER_00: Yeah, exactly.
- 59:13SPEAKER_00: But the source material is also public domain.
- 59:17SPEAKER_00: So, I mean, for the visuals, right?
- 59:20SPEAKER_00: So if you want a Regency or a chair...
- 59:24SPEAKER_00: Well, you know,
- 59:25SPEAKER_00: there's a million pictures of chairs on the internet just from antique shops
- 59:30SPEAKER_00: or whatever.
- 59:31SPEAKER_00: So you're not screen scraping like somebody else's creative output
- 59:39SPEAKER_00: to repurpose it.
- 59:40SPEAKER_00: You're working with just historical documents, basically.
- 59:44SPEAKER_01: And then I'm exploring this world like a game or I'm watching it like a movie?
- 59:49SPEAKER_00: It's...
- 59:53SPEAKER_00: You can write scripts
- 59:56SPEAKER_00: with a web-based script editor in which you say what you want to happen.
- 1:00:03SPEAKER_00: And then in Unreal, UEFN, basically in Fortnite, you see that script get played out.
- 1:00:12SPEAKER_01: Oh, okay.
- 1:00:13SPEAKER_01: So I'm like in a Jane Austen novel, just getting to like...
- 1:00:17SPEAKER_01: Tweak the story a little bit or just make one up.
- 1:00:20SPEAKER_01: Okay.
- 1:00:21SPEAKER_00: Yes.
- 1:00:21SPEAKER_00: So there's all kinds of AI enhancements that make that easier.
- 1:00:27SPEAKER_00: So, you know,
- 1:00:29SPEAKER_00: you could type in,
- 1:00:30SPEAKER_00: you know,
- 1:00:31SPEAKER_00: tell Darcy he sucks and then hit a button and then,
- 1:00:35SPEAKER_00: you know, Claude comes back with a perfectly written sort of Regency era English.
- 1:00:42SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 1:00:42SPEAKER_00: You know, I must observe Mr. Darcy that, you know, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.
- 1:00:46SPEAKER_00: That actually rings true in that world and that sounds like what
- 1:00:51SPEAKER_00: that particular character would say.
- 1:00:57SPEAKER_01: Yeah, go ahead.
- 1:00:58SPEAKER_01: Is this like early days kind of small thing or this is like big, big, you guys are going full?
- 1:01:03SPEAKER_00: Well, it's still, it's where we are right now is getting ready for kind of early play tests.
- 1:01:11SPEAKER_00: So looking for people.
- 1:01:13SPEAKER_00: So there's hundreds of millions of people who play Fortnite.
- 1:01:20SPEAKER_00: Somewhere there's some Venn diagram overlap between them and people
- 1:01:25SPEAKER_00: who like these kinds of books.
- 1:01:28SPEAKER_00: The most popular sort of genre of books in the world is Jane Austen and Bridgerton
- 1:01:35SPEAKER_00: and all of that.
- 1:01:39SPEAKER_00: So we're looking for a few of those people who are willing to put up with
- 1:01:42SPEAKER_00: a still kind of janky early days kind of version of this thing and play with it
- 1:01:51SPEAKER_00: and point out all of the things we're doing wrong.
- 1:01:55SPEAKER_00: And once we get past that phase,
- 1:01:59SPEAKER_00: then the next step would be to launch it and see if people want to play with it.
- 1:02:06SPEAKER_01: And you're friends with Tim Sweeney from Epic?
- 1:02:09SPEAKER_00: We certainly have a friendly relationship.
- 1:02:11SPEAKER_00: We're in touch from time to time.
- 1:02:13SPEAKER_01: I didn't know if he was kind of behind this or helping.
- 1:02:16SPEAKER_01: He's not.
- 1:02:17SPEAKER_00: Well, I'll say that Epic overall has been incredibly helpful.
- 1:02:22SPEAKER_01: Okay.
- 1:02:22SPEAKER_00: So they've been great.
- 1:02:26SPEAKER_00: But they're...
- 1:02:32SPEAKER_00: You know, they're very scrupulous people, I think.
- 1:02:37SPEAKER_00: And that comes from the top.
- 1:02:39SPEAKER_00: It comes from Tim.
- 1:02:40SPEAKER_00: And, you know,
- 1:02:41SPEAKER_00: so I think when they see,
- 1:02:45SPEAKER_00: you know,
- 1:02:46SPEAKER_00: if there's something that we need that has general utility for their developers,
- 1:02:53SPEAKER_00: you know, a lot of developers might want, then...
- 1:02:58SPEAKER_00: Then, you know, then we can have a conversation about that.
- 1:03:02SPEAKER_00: But they're also very even handed about not privileging one developer over another.
- 1:03:08SPEAKER_01: Okay.
- 1:03:08SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 1:03:08SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 1:03:09SPEAKER_01: I'm keeping an eye on time.
- 1:03:10SPEAKER_01: I do want to get to a little bit of a rapid fire round for people who sent in.
- 1:03:15SPEAKER_01: Sure.
- 1:03:16SPEAKER_01: But before we do that,
- 1:03:17SPEAKER_01: there were just kind of like two last things that I really wanted to be indulgent
- 1:03:21SPEAKER_01: on.
- 1:03:21SPEAKER_01: I know you've talked about your time at Blue Origin before, just to give people some context.
- 1:03:25SPEAKER_01: I think you were basically.
- 1:03:27SPEAKER_01: Employee number one or with Jeff and the idea in the early days was
- 1:03:31SPEAKER_01: to explore quite different ideas of what we could do in space.
- 1:03:35SPEAKER_01: We know how to make liquid-fueled rockets and there's really not
- 1:03:38SPEAKER_01: that much you can do to tweak their design.
- 1:03:42SPEAKER_01: And so it was kind of like, what else could we do that would be a bit more adventurous?
- 1:03:48SPEAKER_01: What comes next?
- 1:03:49SPEAKER_01: This is not meant to be mean or anything like that.
- 1:03:51SPEAKER_01: I just,
- 1:03:52SPEAKER_01: I've written books about all this stuff and it was such a nice chance to talk to you
- 1:03:57SPEAKER_01: about this.
- 1:03:57SPEAKER_01: But, you know, so you're at that, I think for about six years.
- 1:04:02SPEAKER_01: Blue Origin eventually gets going.
- 1:04:04SPEAKER_01: I've seen you say that you left when things got a bit more conventional after all.
- 1:04:09SPEAKER_01: And then,
- 1:04:09SPEAKER_01: you know, Blue, I mean,
- 1:04:11SPEAKER_01: I admire,
- 1:04:12SPEAKER_01: especially where they're at now,
- 1:04:13SPEAKER_01: but when you compare them to SpaceX, I mean, it's,
- 1:04:16SPEAKER_01: It looks like one company was almost standing still for about 18 years while
- 1:04:20SPEAKER_01: the other was developing four rocket families
- 1:04:23SPEAKER_01: and learning how to land rockets and dominating satellites and taking over
- 1:04:27SPEAKER_01: the entire space industry.
- 1:04:29SPEAKER_01: And Blue is still trying to prove that it could even deliver satellites to space and all that.
- 1:04:35SPEAKER_01: So, I mean, is that painful?
- 1:04:40SPEAKER_01: Obviously, you haven't been there on a day-to-day basis for these 20 years.
- 1:04:44SPEAKER_01: I've always been...
- 1:04:45SPEAKER_01: Blue's the only space company I really haven't spent time at in part
- 1:04:49SPEAKER_01: because it was quite secretive.
- 1:04:50SPEAKER_01: Jeff is the only kind of tech billionaire type I've never really hung out with.
- 1:04:55SPEAKER_01: Just I've always worked somewhere where somebody else covered Amazon and never had that chance.
- 1:05:00SPEAKER_01: And so I don't know.
- 1:05:02SPEAKER_01: Blue's the one place I don't know much about.
- 1:05:04SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
- 1:05:07SPEAKER_01: It's frustrating,
- 1:05:08SPEAKER_01: you know, to have all those resources and then get stuck for such a long time.
- 1:05:14SPEAKER_01: Although, you know, they really are seeming to kind of come on strong now.
- 1:05:17SPEAKER_01: But yeah, I mean, so what's your, I guess my question is twofold.
- 1:05:20SPEAKER_01: It's like,
- 1:05:22SPEAKER_01: I don't know if you have an emotional attachment to Blue still and sort
- 1:05:25SPEAKER_01: of how do you feel about how it's done.
- 1:05:28SPEAKER_01: And then second,
- 1:05:30SPEAKER_01: and I've heard you say you're impressed of SpaceX,
- 1:05:32SPEAKER_01: but I'd be curious,
- 1:05:33SPEAKER_01: like sort of,
- 1:05:35SPEAKER_01: How impressed,
- 1:05:36SPEAKER_01: given that context of you were looking at doing things quite different.
- 1:05:40SPEAKER_01: And so they've done some different things, but then some that aren't that radical.
- 1:05:44SPEAKER_00: Well, I mean, for starters, I'm very impressed with SpaceX.
- 1:05:48SPEAKER_00: I mean, you just, you know...
- 1:05:53SPEAKER_00: You can't not be if you know anything at all about rockets and space.
- 1:05:58SPEAKER_00: So that's easy.
- 1:06:00SPEAKER_00: That's an easy one.
- 1:06:02SPEAKER_00: I was there from sort of the inception of it in 1999 up until the end of 2006 after
- 1:06:11SPEAKER_00: Launched the first kind of rocket-powered vehicle at West Texas.
- 1:06:18SPEAKER_01: And with Pablo Holman, who's been in that chair as well, who I think is a friend of yours.
- 1:06:23SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
- 1:06:23SPEAKER_00: Yeah, he was probably one of the first five people who was involved in Blue Operations, LLC.
- 1:06:34SPEAKER_00: Yeah, and so the... And then after that, I just said...
- 1:06:41SPEAKER_00: This is great,
- 1:06:42SPEAKER_00: this is fun,
- 1:06:43SPEAKER_00: really interesting,
- 1:06:46SPEAKER_00: but I feel like I could walk away for 20 years and I wouldn't be missed.
- 1:06:54SPEAKER_00: Simply because in the early years,
- 1:06:58SPEAKER_00: we were doing studies on different alternative launch technologies,
- 1:07:08SPEAKER_00: which is different from Engineering, per se.
- 1:07:12SPEAKER_00: And once Jeff made the decision to build rockets and picked a path to follow,
- 1:07:24SPEAKER_00: then it became an engineering organization from that point on.
- 1:07:29SPEAKER_00: And I could have probably talked my way into some kind of engineering organization.
- 1:07:35SPEAKER_00: But when you're a member of a team like that, you have responsibilities.
- 1:07:39SPEAKER_00: You can't go on a book tour and fail to deliver a document in time for
- 1:07:46SPEAKER_00: the design review or what have you.
- 1:07:50SPEAKER_00: And so I just didn't really see my relevance there from that point on.
- 1:07:59SPEAKER_00: So it was a completely amicable parting of the ways at that point.
- 1:08:04SPEAKER_00: But from that point,
- 1:08:06SPEAKER_00: end of 2006,
- 1:08:08SPEAKER_00: I haven't had hardly any real insider knowledge of how things work there,
- 1:08:15SPEAKER_00: what's going on.
- 1:08:16SPEAKER_01: And again, if I'm overstepping my bounds, tell me, are you and Jeff, are you guys friends?
- 1:08:22SPEAKER_01: Are you pretty tight?
- 1:08:25SPEAKER_00: We communicate a few times a year, I would say.
- 1:08:28SPEAKER_01: Have you asked him over the years, like, what the fuck is going on with me?
- 1:08:33SPEAKER_01: It went a little crazy for a while.
- 1:08:36SPEAKER_01: It must have been very frustrating to see SpaceX just racing ahead.
- 1:08:40SPEAKER_00: Well,
- 1:08:43SPEAKER_00: strangely enough, the one enduring thing that I contributed was that...
- 1:08:51SPEAKER_00: The it was would have been, I don't know, 04 or 05.
- 1:08:57SPEAKER_00: And Jeff wanted to make a Like a seal or a coat of arms that would embody the company's values.
- 1:09:06SPEAKER_00: The motto, yeah.
- 1:09:07SPEAKER_00: Yeah, and I think at that point it was already evident that SpaceX,
- 1:09:14SPEAKER_00: which it started at about the same time,
- 1:09:17SPEAKER_00: was jackrabbiting forward at an incredible pace.
- 1:09:22SPEAKER_00: And I think part of the message that Jeff wanted to send was, you know, we don't care.
- 1:09:28SPEAKER_00: We just don't care.
- 1:09:29SPEAKER_00: We're just going to keep, you know, working at our pace.
- 1:09:34SPEAKER_00: And so there's a thing that you see in coats of arms called supporters.
- 1:09:40SPEAKER_00: You'll get animals that support the escutcheon.
- 1:09:44SPEAKER_00: Okay.
- 1:09:44SPEAKER_00: So like in the case of the arms of like the King of England,
- 1:09:49SPEAKER_00: it's a lion and a unicorn, you know, hold up the shield.
- 1:09:55SPEAKER_00: And so I said, well, you know, Maybe the supporters should be tortoises.
- 1:10:04SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 1:10:05SPEAKER_00: And so that's still there.
- 1:10:06SPEAKER_00: It's like painted on the wall.
- 1:10:09SPEAKER_01: I always love that.
- 1:10:10SPEAKER_01: And then as the years went on, it started.
- 1:10:13SPEAKER_01: It was looking like the tortoise was maybe too slow.
- 1:10:17SPEAKER_01: I mean, Blue Origin, they might get the moon.
- 1:10:20SPEAKER_01: They might get the moon, but they have a lot of work to do still on that.
- 1:10:22SPEAKER_00: Although it seems like suddenly in the last few months, Elon is getting interested in the moon.
- 1:10:27SPEAKER_01: Well, he is because that's where there's money and Trump is,
- 1:10:31SPEAKER_01: the government's turning its eye there.
- 1:10:32SPEAKER_01: I mean, Elon was always, we're going to do Mars and not the moon.
- 1:10:36SPEAKER_01: The moon is just, you're just wasting time if that's where you go.
- 1:10:41SPEAKER_01: But clearly, you know, I think there's things to be gained now and all the stuff is expensive.
- 1:10:48SPEAKER_01: It's interesting that Blue Origin is taking outside money for the first time.
- 1:10:53SPEAKER_00: Raising money, yeah.
- 1:10:54SPEAKER_00: Well, the...
- 1:10:58SPEAKER_00: Rob Meyerson,
- 1:10:59SPEAKER_00: who was the CEO of Blue Origin for a long time,
- 1:11:02SPEAKER_00: and Gary Lai,
- 1:11:03SPEAKER_00: who was a very senior engineer there that I used to work with,
- 1:11:11SPEAKER_00: have started a startup called Interlune,
- 1:11:14SPEAKER_00: which is going to mine helium-3 on the moon's surface.
- 1:11:19SPEAKER_00: It's pretty close to me in Seattle.
- 1:11:22SPEAKER_01: I saw this and you guys, you've got Stokes Base up there, which is interesting.
- 1:11:25SPEAKER_01: And yeah, Washington still has a couple interesting things.
- 1:11:29SPEAKER_01: I saw you when you first came in, you peeked at my little rocket.
- 1:11:32SPEAKER_00: Yeah, can't help it.
- 1:11:32SPEAKER_01: Which is, so that's Skyroot.
- 1:11:34SPEAKER_01: So that's an Indian private rocket company.
- 1:11:37SPEAKER_01: They went to orbit on their first try like two or three months ago, which basically never.
- 1:11:41SPEAKER_01: Yeah, that's rare.
- 1:11:42SPEAKER_01: They made it to orbit and they put a satellite in the right spot.
- 1:11:45SPEAKER_01: Wow.
- 1:11:45SPEAKER_01: Although it's a...
- 1:11:49SPEAKER_01: I mean, it's technically a four-stage rocket.
- 1:11:50SPEAKER_01: It's really three stages with solid rocket fuel, so they went a little bit easier.
- 1:11:55SPEAKER_01: And the four-stage is kind of a kick stage, and it wasn't clear if their stage...
- 1:11:59SPEAKER_01: It wasn't totally clear how clean their stage separation was on a couple things.
- 1:12:04SPEAKER_01: But...
- 1:12:04SPEAKER_01: It's a hard problem.
- 1:12:05SPEAKER_01: You know what they built that for?
- 1:12:07SPEAKER_01: I think they...
- 1:12:09SPEAKER_01: So they started, I think, in 2018 at the time...
- 1:12:13SPEAKER_01: Commercial space was illegal in India, but they started anyway.
- 1:12:16SPEAKER_01: So they started designing.
- 1:12:18SPEAKER_01: And then around 2022, 2023, the Indian government made commercial space legal.
- 1:12:23SPEAKER_01: And so these guys had a rocket that was coming ready.
- 1:12:27SPEAKER_01: And I think they did it.
- 1:12:29SPEAKER_01: I think they built that whole thing for $60 million,
- 1:12:32SPEAKER_01: which I don't think has ever been done for less than a billion years.
- 1:12:35SPEAKER_00: Where did they launch from?
- 1:12:36SPEAKER_01: From Sri Harikota.
- 1:12:37SPEAKER_01: It's an island off the east coast of India.
- 1:12:39SPEAKER_01: It's the same place where the Indian government, ISRO, launches the PSLV and all its rockets.
- 1:12:44SPEAKER_01: I've been there for a launch.
- 1:12:46SPEAKER_01: It's amazing.
- 1:12:47SPEAKER_01: It's right by Chennai, which is a little bit north.
- 1:12:51SPEAKER_00: Yeah, there must be some great sights there.
- 1:12:53SPEAKER_01: It's unbelievable.
- 1:12:54SPEAKER_01: So when I went, I got to stay on the island, and there are...
- 1:12:59SPEAKER_01: Monkeys crawling all over the rocket.
- 1:13:01SPEAKER_01: There's cows at the launch site.
- 1:13:03SPEAKER_01: It's full on jungle.
- 1:13:05SPEAKER_01: And it was amazing.
- 1:13:07SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I know a couple of people who've been to the Baikonur site.
- 1:13:12SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 1:13:12SPEAKER_00: And apparently that's also pretty rural.
- 1:13:14SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
- 1:13:15SPEAKER_01: Yes.
- 1:13:16SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
- 1:13:16SPEAKER_01: The launch sites is one of my favorite things to do because they're always in
- 1:13:20SPEAKER_01: the weirdest places like French Guiana.
- 1:13:22SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 1:13:23SPEAKER_01: You're in, I think it's in the bottom five of the poorest countries in the world.
- 1:13:29SPEAKER_01: And then all of a sudden there's this huge European rocket launch site.
- 1:13:33SPEAKER_01: I've been to Alaska, Ukraine, New Zealand.
- 1:13:37SPEAKER_01: Rocket Lab is one of the most beautiful launch sites you can imagine.
- 1:13:41SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I'm sure they have a spectacular site.
- 1:13:43SPEAKER_01: So when you were looking at these different concepts,
- 1:13:45SPEAKER_01: I mean, the only ones that I know that are quite radical today are...
- 1:13:50SPEAKER_01: Spin launch with sort of the centrifuge type system where you're going
- 1:13:54SPEAKER_01: to throw something to space.
- 1:13:55SPEAKER_01: I don't know if you've seen Longshot.
- 1:13:57SPEAKER_01: We did a video on them.
- 1:13:58SPEAKER_01: They're making like a 10 kilometer long space gun, more or less.
- 1:14:03SPEAKER_01: Obviously not human rated.
- 1:14:04SPEAKER_01: This is all satellites.
- 1:14:07SPEAKER_01: But it sort of pushes a projectile along this tube and accelerates it
- 1:14:12SPEAKER_00: with gas.
- 1:14:14SPEAKER_00: Is there anything that you feel like?
- 1:14:16SPEAKER_00: Yeah, we looked at both of those.
- 1:14:18SPEAKER_00: There's a...
- 1:14:19SPEAKER_00: Is it, well,
- 1:14:22SPEAKER_00: we're really about to go down a deep rabbit hole here,
- 1:14:24SPEAKER_00: but there's a ramjet accelerator that was developed at the University of Washington
- 1:14:29SPEAKER_00: that sounds like what you're...
- 1:14:31SPEAKER_00: It's close to the long shot, yeah.
- 1:14:32SPEAKER_00: ...Talking about that.
- 1:14:33SPEAKER_00: And then the...
- 1:14:36SPEAKER_00: Centrifuge.
- 1:14:39SPEAKER_00: The centrifuge thing...
- 1:14:43SPEAKER_00: Existed back then under the name of Slingitron.
- 1:14:49SPEAKER_00: It was the same idea.
- 1:14:50SPEAKER_00: It's a spiral thing.
- 1:14:53SPEAKER_00: It's a big table that goes like this, and you have a spiral passage in it.
- 1:15:02SPEAKER_00: It's a big gun, basically.
- 1:15:03SPEAKER_00: It's all big gun systems have got...
- 1:15:08SPEAKER_00: Problems that you're obviously aware of around,
- 1:15:10SPEAKER_00: you know,
- 1:15:11SPEAKER_00: what happens when you meet the atmosphere, you know, and that kind of thing.
- 1:15:14SPEAKER_00: But the, I mean,
- 1:15:20SPEAKER_00: as a kind of almost tongue-in-cheek thing,
- 1:15:22SPEAKER_00: I looked at gigantic steel bullwhips, which is still a topic I'm obsessed with.
- 1:15:28SPEAKER_00: I've got five Substack posts about that kind of technology now.
- 1:15:34SPEAKER_00: But the one that...
- 1:15:38SPEAKER_00: That I, I still think somebody out of build is the tall tower.
- 1:15:42SPEAKER_00: Okay.
- 1:15:43SPEAKER_00: So this came out of a paper by Jeff Landis, um, that, um, uh,
- 1:15:50SPEAKER_00: where he,
- 1:15:50SPEAKER_00: he went through and,
- 1:15:52SPEAKER_00: and enumerated all of the advantages that you would be able to benefit from
- 1:15:57SPEAKER_00: by launching from the top of a tower.
- 1:16:01SPEAKER_00: And some of them are kind of non-obvious, like, um, well,
- 1:16:05SPEAKER_00: if you know rocket engines,
- 1:16:06SPEAKER_00: you know that,
- 1:16:07SPEAKER_00: um, One that's designed to operate in vacuum has a big bell and it's more efficient.
- 1:16:14SPEAKER_00: So you'd be able to do that.
- 1:16:19SPEAKER_00: Some really odd things like you have to build the rocket so it won't destroy itself
- 1:16:26SPEAKER_00: with its own noise.
- 1:16:28SPEAKER_00: And it's not as noisy up there.
- 1:16:31SPEAKER_00: You have to build it so it won't buckle at max Q.
- 1:16:36SPEAKER_00: Up there, max Q is going to be a lot lower.
- 1:16:40SPEAKER_00: And so you do have to put less weight into structural strength of the airframe.
- 1:16:48SPEAKER_00: So when you add all those things up,
- 1:16:51SPEAKER_00: And factor those into the rocket equation, you know, an exponential equation.
- 1:16:55SPEAKER_00: It turns out that,
- 1:16:57SPEAKER_00: at least according to Landis' calculations back then,
- 1:17:01SPEAKER_00: for a given kind of rocket configuration, you could get twice as much mass into LEO.
- 1:17:09SPEAKER_00: So, um...
- 1:17:11SPEAKER_00: Okay.
- 1:17:13SPEAKER_01: I don't want to... No, sorry.
- 1:17:14SPEAKER_01: I didn't mean to cut you off.
- 1:17:15SPEAKER_01: Well, no, I can...
- 1:17:17SPEAKER_01: Okay, so then, I mean, SpaceX is...
- 1:17:20SPEAKER_01: Clearly, they've gotten cadence way up for people who aren't space nerds.
- 1:17:25SPEAKER_01: Governments, we're super lucky to do 12 launches a year.
- 1:17:28SPEAKER_01: SpaceX is going almost every two days.
- 1:17:30SPEAKER_01: They've got reuse down.
- 1:17:32SPEAKER_01: We've gone from roughly 2,500 satellites in space now to about 15,000.
- 1:17:39SPEAKER_01: Almost the vast majority of that is overnight and driven by Starlink.
- 1:17:44SPEAKER_01: The Starship is coming.
- 1:17:47SPEAKER_01: So you're talking mass to orbit.
- 1:17:48SPEAKER_01: I mean, a giant...
- 1:17:49SPEAKER_01: Leap forward on that.
- 1:17:53SPEAKER_01: And you've already said SpaceX is impressive,
- 1:17:55SPEAKER_01: but are you dissatisfied because you still want these far more?
- 1:17:59SPEAKER_01: Does Starship scratch your itch, or do you still want more?
- 1:18:03SPEAKER_00: Well, yeah, I mean,
- 1:18:07SPEAKER_00: so
- 1:18:11SPEAKER_00: the question that was before us, you know, at the beginning of Blue Origin was...
- 1:18:20SPEAKER_00: Are there optimizations that you can apply to chemical rockets
- 1:18:26SPEAKER_00: that would radically transform the economics of space launch?
- 1:18:31SPEAKER_00: So it turns out the answer is yes.
- 1:18:34SPEAKER_00: That was not totally obvious back then.
- 1:18:38SPEAKER_00: You know,
- 1:18:38SPEAKER_00: it was kind of felt that if you look at,
- 1:18:41SPEAKER_00: you know,
- 1:18:42SPEAKER_00: let's say the space shuttle main engine, you know, it's a pretty amazing engine.
- 1:18:45SPEAKER_00: It's, you know, the specific impulse of that engine is very impressive.
- 1:18:50SPEAKER_00: Um, so, well, that's not going to get a lot better.
- 1:18:52SPEAKER_00: You know, the specific impulse is not going to get a lot better.
- 1:18:56SPEAKER_00: So, um, that's just a thermodynamic reality.
- 1:19:00SPEAKER_00: And so is there a way that you can, um, do something that's not all about that?
- 1:19:07SPEAKER_00: And so, you know,
- 1:19:08SPEAKER_00: we looked at laser launch,
- 1:19:09SPEAKER_00: we looked at electromagnetic propulsion,
- 1:19:12SPEAKER_00: you know, uh, and, um, you know, all kinds of ideas, but the, um, um,
- 1:19:22SPEAKER_00: For me, the attraction
- 1:19:26SPEAKER_00: of the tall tower went beyond just it's a good way to launch rockets.
- 1:19:32SPEAKER_00: And there's this additional factor of it would be really cool to have something
- 1:19:40SPEAKER_00: that big, you know.
- 1:19:41SPEAKER_00: And so it goes to the whole American dynamism,
- 1:19:44SPEAKER_00: you know, why don't we build big things anymore kind of questions.
- 1:19:50SPEAKER_00: And if it were built,
- 1:19:52SPEAKER_00: I think it would be possible to monetize it in a whole bunch of additional ways
- 1:19:59SPEAKER_00: beyond just launching rockets from it.
- 1:20:01SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
- 1:20:03SPEAKER_01: Well, I haven't seen anything that interesting, but China seems to be...
- 1:20:07SPEAKER_01: It's got its own thoughts on reuse and things like that, which is kind of interesting.
- 1:20:11SPEAKER_01: I think India is actually,
- 1:20:13SPEAKER_01: so from the moment the government made commercial space legal,
- 1:20:17SPEAKER_01: which is roughly 2023 till now, now there are 500 space startups in India.
- 1:20:22SPEAKER_01: Wow.
- 1:20:22SPEAKER_01: And there's about,
- 1:20:23SPEAKER_01: there's probably around like eight rocket startups,
- 1:20:26SPEAKER_01: three to four of which I would say are sort of legit and have a chance.
- 1:20:30SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
- 1:20:33SPEAKER_01: Not hugely radical ideas that are different yet, but we'll see.
- 1:20:36SPEAKER_00: Well, yeah,
- 1:20:37SPEAKER_00: it's interesting that I think one thing that we did figure out,
- 1:20:42SPEAKER_00: it was sort of like a cold water in the face moment, was that...
- 1:20:50SPEAKER_00: The business of space,
- 1:20:53SPEAKER_00: at least then,
- 1:20:54SPEAKER_00: probably now,
- 1:20:55SPEAKER_00: is essentially launching these huge satellites up to geo
- 1:21:00SPEAKER_00: that are incredibly expensive and their time is incredibly valuable.
- 1:21:08SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
- 1:21:08SPEAKER_00: And if you, uh,
- 1:21:11SPEAKER_00: so to begin with the cost of the rocket itself is kind of a round off error,
- 1:21:16SPEAKER_00: you know, it's just, uh, it's compared to everything else.
- 1:21:19SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 1:21:19SPEAKER_01: I mean, uh, yeah,
- 1:21:20SPEAKER_01: a launch,
- 1:21:21SPEAKER_01: even if it was expensive Lockheed or somebody was 300 million,
- 1:21:25SPEAKER_01: those satellites could be like $2 billion each.
- 1:21:28SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 1:21:28SPEAKER_00: And the, um,
- 1:21:31SPEAKER_00: You need insurance,
- 1:21:32SPEAKER_00: you know,
- 1:21:33SPEAKER_00: and you're not going to get insurance on a brand new launch,
- 1:21:37SPEAKER_00: you know, a radically new launch concept.
- 1:21:41SPEAKER_00: And I assume that's why Elon launched that car into space.
- 1:21:48SPEAKER_00: You know, he had to show that he could do it.
- 1:21:52SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 1:21:52SPEAKER_00: But no one was going to risk an expensive satellite, you know, until...
- 1:21:58SPEAKER_01: That was on the first Falcon Heavy one, I think.
- 1:22:00SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
- 1:22:00SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
- 1:22:01SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 1:22:02SPEAKER_01: Well, and I think Elon wanted.
- 1:22:03SPEAKER_00: I'm sure.
- 1:22:04SPEAKER_00: I'm sure.
- 1:22:05SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 1:22:06SPEAKER_00: But it was a cold water moment in that we kind of realized, oh, man,
- 1:22:13SPEAKER_00: you know,
- 1:22:14SPEAKER_00: we could,
- 1:22:15SPEAKER_00: you know,
- 1:22:15SPEAKER_00: come up with the coolest new idea imaginable
- 1:22:19SPEAKER_00: and it would never go anywhere commercially.
- 1:22:22SPEAKER_00: Because it would be uninsurable.
- 1:22:27SPEAKER_00: If one of these launches gets delayed by a few weeks or a few months
- 1:22:32SPEAKER_00: by technical issues,
- 1:22:34SPEAKER_00: then that's a few weeks or a few months that it's not generating revenue for
- 1:22:38SPEAKER_00: the owner of that satellite.
- 1:22:40SPEAKER_00: And that's an enormous loss.
- 1:22:43SPEAKER_00: So why not just pay Lockheed to send the thing up?
- 1:22:48SPEAKER_01: Okay, I'm looking at the time.
- 1:22:49SPEAKER_01: I'm really pushing my limits now.
- 1:22:50SPEAKER_01: I have to let you go in about 10 minutes.
- 1:22:52SPEAKER_01: Can I go rapid fire?
- 1:22:54SPEAKER_00: Yeah, and we can go a little over if you want.
- 1:22:57SPEAKER_01: Okay, I just want to be careful, and I want to...
- 1:23:01SPEAKER_01: Anyway, people tweeted these in, so I'm not responsible for what comes out next.
- 1:23:05SPEAKER_01: There's quite a bit of interest in your interest in sword fighting.
- 1:23:09SPEAKER_01: I'll let you pick one, which I think is...
- 1:23:14SPEAKER_01: One is extreme.
- 1:23:15SPEAKER_01: It was your 20 favorite swords.
- 1:23:17SPEAKER_01: And the other was ask about sword fighting techniques.
- 1:23:21SPEAKER_01: Anything you want to tell the people about swords currently.
- 1:23:24SPEAKER_00: I mean, I assume they mean 20 favorite types of swords.
- 1:23:27SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 1:23:28SPEAKER_00: Sorry.
- 1:23:28SPEAKER_01: I don't know what I said, but that's correct.
- 1:23:30SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 1:23:30SPEAKER_00: I don't know.
- 1:23:31SPEAKER_00: There's – I have –
- 1:23:35SPEAKER_00: In the last probably 10 years have focused entirely on kind of niche sword type,
- 1:23:45SPEAKER_00: which is the basket-hilded broadsword.
- 1:23:49SPEAKER_00: And that is a—it's not done by a lot of people these days, which is funny because it's—
- 1:23:59SPEAKER_00: I think it's the longest lived sword category that was in actual use in
- 1:24:05SPEAKER_00: the West anyway,
- 1:24:06SPEAKER_00: because,
- 1:24:07SPEAKER_00: you know,
- 1:24:07SPEAKER_00: we know it was in use in the 1500s and,
- 1:24:13SPEAKER_00: you know, it was in active military use until basically the First World War.
- 1:24:17SPEAKER_00: But it's a...
- 1:24:19SPEAKER_00: A single-handed sword where the hand is completely protected by a basket.
- 1:24:22SPEAKER_00: And there were versions of it that existed in Italy called the Schiavone and
- 1:24:27SPEAKER_00: in Germany, but it's mostly associated with English and Scottish military.
- 1:24:34SPEAKER_00: And so I did a video about it.
- 1:24:41SPEAKER_00: It's viewed as being kind of a weirdly heavy weapon for a single-handed user,
- 1:24:49SPEAKER_00: but I think that that's because people are doing it wrong.
- 1:24:56SPEAKER_00: So that's the thing that I do.
- 1:24:58SPEAKER_00: I started doing it partly because I got tired of having my hands broken,
- 1:25:04SPEAKER_00: working with long swords, which don't have hand protection.
- 1:25:08SPEAKER_00: And partly because it's a historical era that I'm kind of interested in.
- 1:25:15SPEAKER_00: So that's the particular style that I practice.
- 1:25:19SPEAKER_00: It's based on mostly on the work of a guy named George Silver,
- 1:25:23SPEAKER_00: who was a contemporary of Queen Elizabeth and all of those guys.
- 1:25:28SPEAKER_00: And...
- 1:25:32SPEAKER_00: And is a well-known and somewhat controversial figure in the world
- 1:25:37SPEAKER_00: of historical European martial arts.
- 1:25:40SPEAKER_01: Okay.
- 1:25:41SPEAKER_01: Okay.
- 1:25:42SPEAKER_01: This question comes from one of my favorite readers.
- 1:25:45SPEAKER_01: I don't know if it's answerable.
- 1:25:47SPEAKER_00: Okay.
- 1:25:48SPEAKER_00: We'll see.
- 1:25:48SPEAKER_00: We'll soon find out.
- 1:25:49SPEAKER_01: What are the mystics of America?
- 1:25:52SPEAKER_01: I mean, the mystics,
- 1:25:52SPEAKER_01: they're kind of choose which technology they want to adopt and bring
- 1:25:56SPEAKER_01: into their society.
- 1:25:58SPEAKER_01: Right?
- 1:25:59SPEAKER_01: I mean, sort of inspired by the Amish.
- 1:26:00SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
- 1:26:01SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 1:26:02SPEAKER_00: Yeah, well, I mean,
- 1:26:03SPEAKER_00: so this is an idea that is from Kevin Kelly,
- 1:26:06SPEAKER_00: who kind of pointed out a long time ago that the Amish don't reject all technology.
- 1:26:12SPEAKER_00: They use rollerblades.
- 1:26:14SPEAKER_00: They just reject specific technologies.
- 1:26:17SPEAKER_00: And so...
- 1:26:21SPEAKER_00: I mean, you see it all the time now if you're trying to communicate with people
- 1:26:27SPEAKER_00: because you've got people who use Signal,
- 1:26:30SPEAKER_00: Telegram, WhatsApp, you know, plain old SMS messages, email.
- 1:26:38SPEAKER_00: And so that's a very common and kind of trivial example of people deciding
- 1:26:44SPEAKER_00: which technology they're going to use and not going to use.
- 1:26:49SPEAKER_00: But...
- 1:26:51SPEAKER_00: Clearly, there's people now who are being super fastidious about AI.
- 1:26:55SPEAKER_00: You know, I refuse to use AI.
- 1:26:57SPEAKER_00: There's a huge debate over should we allow students in classrooms to have screens
- 1:27:04SPEAKER_00: or children in any circumstance to have access to screens.
- 1:27:10SPEAKER_00: So you can kind of see examples of it all over the place.
- 1:27:16SPEAKER_01: So the screens, I assume you've had to answer this question before.
- 1:27:19SPEAKER_01: The screens kind of hits on another thing that came up about six or seven times,
- 1:27:23SPEAKER_01: which is, can we now make the young lady's illustrated primer?
- 1:27:27SPEAKER_01: Should we be doing that?
- 1:27:29SPEAKER_01: Can we, should we?
- 1:27:30SPEAKER_01: Are you?
- 1:27:31SPEAKER_00: Yeah, so this is now.
- 1:27:34SPEAKER_01: Should we describe what it is?
- 1:27:37SPEAKER_00: Yeah, it's a hypothetical device,
- 1:27:42SPEAKER_00: a nanotech,
- 1:27:43SPEAKER_00: a magic book in my book,
- 1:27:45SPEAKER_00: The Diamond Age, that teaches kids that it's an educational system.
- 1:27:54SPEAKER_00: And the...
- 1:27:58SPEAKER_00: So this is now hot in a way that the metaverse was like five or six years ago.
- 1:28:04SPEAKER_00: So I hear about it every day.
- 1:28:05SPEAKER_00: I
- 1:28:09SPEAKER_00: mean, I've been thinking about it a lot, I guess is the first thing to say.
- 1:28:14SPEAKER_00: I'm actively thinking about this stuff.
- 1:28:20SPEAKER_00: What I have been doing is...
- 1:28:26SPEAKER_00: I'm trying to pay attention to what teachers actually want.
- 1:28:30SPEAKER_00: So I follow the teachers subreddit and a bunch of other channels of information
- 1:28:36SPEAKER_00: where actual teachers and actual classrooms talk about the problems they face,
- 1:28:41SPEAKER_00: none of which can be solved by giving them a piece of technology.
- 1:28:46SPEAKER_00: That is at the bottom of their list in terms of what they actually want.
- 1:28:53SPEAKER_00: So I, you know,
- 1:28:54SPEAKER_00: I think it's fine to to think about ed tech,
- 1:28:58SPEAKER_00: but I think it's really important to go about it in a way that is is observant of
- 1:29:05SPEAKER_00: the fact that there have been many ed tech initiatives,
- 1:29:09SPEAKER_00: you know,
- 1:29:09SPEAKER_00: down through the years that haven't worked out and that don't address the
- 1:29:17SPEAKER_00: the pressing issues that teachers actually have to to deal with day to day.
- 1:29:25SPEAKER_01: And this is all meant to be directly to you.
- 1:29:27SPEAKER_01: I'll say one thing.
- 1:29:28SPEAKER_01: One of the most read stories I've done recently, I had this experience.
- 1:29:31SPEAKER_01: I was with this 22 year old and I was hanging out with him.
- 1:29:35SPEAKER_01: He had built a nuclear fuser in his bedroom using only Claude as his guide.
- 1:29:41SPEAKER_01: He'd never built a hardware system before.
- 1:29:43SPEAKER_01: And we were hanging out in his little San Francisco apartment
- 1:29:47SPEAKER_01: and he had like seven different AI systems running at the same time.
- 1:29:51SPEAKER_01: You know, he was speaking into one of them.
- 1:29:54SPEAKER_01: He was like sending in all the receipts from Amazon that he had bought
- 1:29:57SPEAKER_01: for this fuser thing, getting his diagrams back.
- 1:29:59SPEAKER_01: And he had this like fluidity with the computer that, I mean, I'm...
- 1:30:05SPEAKER_01: Even though I'm on the older side now, I'm pretty good.
- 1:30:08SPEAKER_01: I use all the latest and greatest tech.
- 1:30:10SPEAKER_01: I go pretty deep.
- 1:30:11SPEAKER_01: He had a different relationship with his computer.
- 1:30:15SPEAKER_01: It wasn't exactly a tutor, but it was this symbiotic thing going on that I did not have.
- 1:30:22SPEAKER_00: The first question that comes up when you seriously start talking about this is...
- 1:30:33SPEAKER_00: Okay, you know,
- 1:30:34SPEAKER_00: we don't want to just make a gadget that is going to serve
- 1:30:39SPEAKER_00: a small privileged population,
- 1:30:41SPEAKER_00: you know, that doesn't need it because they're going to be fine anyway.
- 1:30:46SPEAKER_00: No, we should,
- 1:30:47SPEAKER_00: you know,
- 1:30:48SPEAKER_00: make something that's going to work for everyone,
- 1:30:50SPEAKER_00: you know, that's going to have broad social impact.
- 1:30:54SPEAKER_00: And then,
- 1:30:54SPEAKER_00: so once you go down that road,
- 1:30:56SPEAKER_00: which is very feel good,
- 1:30:59SPEAKER_00: and again,
- 1:31:00SPEAKER_00: start Looking at the real problems of education,
- 1:31:03SPEAKER_00: then very soon you sort of focus back down to,
- 1:31:08SPEAKER_00: okay, let's try a pilot program for a few kids.
- 1:31:16SPEAKER_00: So the kid that you're describing,
- 1:31:18SPEAKER_00: I would put it to you, would have been
- 1:31:24SPEAKER_00: just as successful 100 years ago.
- 1:31:28SPEAKER_00: My analogy for this is Abe Lincoln.
- 1:31:32SPEAKER_00: So when Abe Lincoln was a kid, he didn't have paper.
- 1:31:37SPEAKER_00: So he had a shovel.
- 1:31:39SPEAKER_00: So he would stick the shovel in the fire.
- 1:31:43SPEAKER_00: And so it was covered with soot.
- 1:31:45SPEAKER_00: And then he would flip it over, wait for it to cool down.
- 1:31:48SPEAKER_00: And then he would scratch his lessons out on the shovel by scratching the soot off.
- 1:31:54SPEAKER_00: And then when the shovel was full of words, he would Stick it back in the fire again.
- 1:31:59SPEAKER_00: So there is Abraham Lincoln kids,
- 1:32:02SPEAKER_00: you know,
- 1:32:02SPEAKER_00: who just cannot be stopped,
- 1:32:04SPEAKER_00: you know, no matter how rugged their circumstances might be.
- 1:32:12SPEAKER_00: But they don't need help.
- 1:32:15SPEAKER_00: So I'm not saying I have the answer.
- 1:32:17SPEAKER_00: I'm just saying that these are the immediate questions you have to start thinking
- 1:32:21SPEAKER_00: about when you begin to ponder, you know, Bringing out a new kind of ed tech.
- 1:32:29SPEAKER_01: Okay.
- 1:32:31SPEAKER_01: I'll leave you with the last one.
- 1:32:34SPEAKER_01: I mean, I was going down this road before.
- 1:32:37SPEAKER_01: There's just a million things.
- 1:32:38SPEAKER_01: I mean, this must be so frustrating because people see you as some kind of oracle.
- 1:32:42SPEAKER_01: I mean, talking to you has been different than I thought it would be in some ways.
- 1:32:46SPEAKER_01: Like, I thought you would be a total...
- 1:32:49SPEAKER_01: Latest and greatest tech obsessive across all these fronts.
- 1:32:53SPEAKER_01: I can just tell now.
- 1:32:54SPEAKER_01: I mean, you're just super thoughtful.
- 1:32:56SPEAKER_01: You research things.
- 1:32:57SPEAKER_01: You must have this unique ability to, like, conjure these worlds and futures in your head.
- 1:33:02SPEAKER_01: But it must be frustrating.
- 1:33:03SPEAKER_01: I'm sure people turn to you all the time hoping for you to tell us what the future will be like.
- 1:33:07SPEAKER_01: But it is—it's all on here.
- 1:33:10SPEAKER_01: Everyone wants to know, like, utopia or dystopia.
- 1:33:12SPEAKER_01: Oh, yeah.
- 1:33:13SPEAKER_01: Yeah, where are we heading?
- 1:33:14SPEAKER_00: Well, look,
- 1:33:14SPEAKER_00: the— Well,
- 1:33:15SPEAKER_00: so what you're seeing is essentially a storyteller or a novelist method to thinking
- 1:33:24SPEAKER_00: about these things because the first duty of a storyteller or a novelist is
- 1:33:32SPEAKER_00: to keep people turning the page.
- 1:33:34SPEAKER_00: And so you've got to try to put them into an immersive world A fictional world
- 1:33:41SPEAKER_00: that is coherent and makes sense.
- 1:33:44SPEAKER_00: And there's all kinds of signals that you can inadvertently send to the reader
- 1:33:49SPEAKER_00: that they may not even be fully conscious of them,
- 1:33:53SPEAKER_00: but they'll immediately kind of say, oh, wait a second, that doesn't make sense.
- 1:34:00SPEAKER_00: I don't know why that character did that.
- 1:34:02SPEAKER_00: This seems kind of simplistic.
- 1:34:05SPEAKER_00: And they closed the book and they put it down.
- 1:34:07SPEAKER_00: So...
- 1:34:11SPEAKER_00: And this goes to what I was saying earlier about Hollywood adaptations,
- 1:34:15SPEAKER_00: what makes them succeed or fail.
- 1:34:18SPEAKER_00: So if you're going to write a fictional scenario that involves technology,
- 1:34:25SPEAKER_00: you need to embrace the full complexity of that technology,
- 1:34:30SPEAKER_00: how it can go bad,
- 1:34:31SPEAKER_00: how it can succeed, and also how would a society interact with that technology.
- 1:34:41SPEAKER_00: And what would happen when people misused it or used it in really unexpected creative ways?
- 1:34:48SPEAKER_00: And you also have to think about what's the business plan?
- 1:34:52SPEAKER_00: How would it make sense economically for a given fictional technology
- 1:34:59SPEAKER_00: to actually be rolled out and put to use?
- 1:35:03SPEAKER_00: And so if you do all those things and you do a good job of it,
- 1:35:07SPEAKER_00: then the reader reading the book will say, okay, yeah, that kind of adds up.
- 1:35:11SPEAKER_00: You know, this rings true to me.
- 1:35:15SPEAKER_00: And if you don't, again, they'll get a sense that it's false and they won't like the results.
- 1:35:23SPEAKER_00: So I think what you're seeing,
- 1:35:26SPEAKER_00: you know,
- 1:35:27SPEAKER_00: if you see me as being ambivalent or kind of complicated in my Some of my responses,
- 1:35:32SPEAKER_00: it's me,
- 1:35:34SPEAKER_00: the novelist brain,
- 1:35:36SPEAKER_00: trying to constantly ask the question of,
- 1:35:39SPEAKER_00: you know,
- 1:35:40SPEAKER_00: how could we tell stories here that have that complexity and subtlety about them?
- 1:35:45SPEAKER_01: Yeah, no, which is fair.
- 1:35:46SPEAKER_01: And I wish the world was wired a bit more like that.
- 1:35:51SPEAKER_01: Neil, I can't thank you enough.
- 1:35:53SPEAKER_01: Honestly,
- 1:35:53SPEAKER_01: I don't want to embarrass you or anything,
- 1:35:55SPEAKER_01: but it's like an honor of a lifetime to talk to somebody who's,
- 1:36:00SPEAKER_01: first of all,
- 1:36:00SPEAKER_01: just Prolific and wonderful at writing and,
- 1:36:04SPEAKER_01: and it was really like shaped the world in ways that I don't think I really,
- 1:36:11SPEAKER_01: it's rare to run into.
- 1:36:12SPEAKER_01: So, uh, please definitely buy the book.
- 1:36:17SPEAKER_01: That's the most important thing.
- 1:36:18SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
- 1:36:19SPEAKER_01: I knew I should get it first cause I knew we were going to get distracted
- 1:36:22SPEAKER_01: a little bit, but, um,
- 1:36:23SPEAKER_01: but please buy the book and,
- 1:36:25SPEAKER_01: and, um, yeah, no, just a highlight of, um, Highlight of the year.
- 1:36:30SPEAKER_00: Thank you.
- 1:36:31SPEAKER_00: It's been fun.
- 1:36:32SPEAKER_00: I've enjoyed talking to you and looking at your cool rocket models.
- 1:36:37SPEAKER_00: Are those Tesla batteries?
- 1:36:40SPEAKER_00: Are those whatever they are?
- 1:36:41SPEAKER_01: They are lithium ion batteries, but they got made in a laboratory in Tennessee.
- 1:36:47SPEAKER_01: We collect these artifacts as we go around.
- 1:36:49SPEAKER_01: Of course.
- 1:36:49SPEAKER_01: That's my face built by some robots in Los Angeles.
- 1:36:53SPEAKER_01: Yeah, we just keep adding as we go.
- 1:36:56SPEAKER_01: Cool.
- 1:36:56SPEAKER_00: Okay.
- 1:36:57SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 1:36:58SPEAKER_00: Great.
- 1:36:58SPEAKER_00: It's been fun.
- 1:36:59SPEAKER_00: Thank you, man.
- 1:37:00SPEAKER_00: Thank you so much.
- 1:37:01SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 1:37:01SPEAKER_00: Pleasure.
- 1:37:02SPEAKER_00: And good luck with the rest of the tour.
- 1:37:04SPEAKER_00: Thanks.
- 1:37:05SPEAKER_00: Okay.
- 1:37:07SPEAKER_01: The Core Memory Podcast is hosted by me,
- 1:37:09SPEAKER_01: Ashley Vance, and or Kylie Robison, or both of us together.
- 1:37:14SPEAKER_01: It is produced by me and David Nicholson.
- 1:37:18SPEAKER_01: Our theme song is by James Mercer and John Sortland.
- 1:37:21SPEAKER_01: And the show is edited always by the John Sortland.
- 1:37:27SPEAKER_01: Thank you so much to Brext for all your support and thank you most of all
- 1:37:32SPEAKER_01: to everybody for listening or watching.
- 1:37:35SPEAKER_01: We love you.
- 1:37:36SPEAKER_01: Please leave us a like, a review, a subscribe, all those tremendous things.
- 1:37:41SPEAKER_01: Thank you and we'll see you again.
- 1:37:45[music]