Latest / The Specific Jawns / This Feels Like A Good Time To Panic

Transcript

This Feels Like A Good Time To Panic · The Specific Jawns

• Pat Barker: Hey everybody, it's the Specific Johns Podcast. I'm your host, Pat Barker, and ⁓ it's September and Jesus Lazardo is on the injured list, and I am metaphorically on the edge of the Walt Whitman Bridge right now, here to try to talk me off is my co-host, my good friend Carl Bakudi. Carl, you got anything to ⁓ keep me from jumping here? Carl: No, I'm I'm dangling off the cables of the Ben Franklin myself. So ⁓ yeah, we're in the same boat. ⁓ we'll hopefully land in the same boat as we jump off these respective bridges. ⁓ you tell me where you want to begin because the sky is falling and here we are. Pat Barker: Yeah, well, you know, I have a lot of thoughts, of course, on the sky falling. ⁓ a lot of thoughts on these fillies. And at the same time, like, weirdly, no thoughts at all. Like, you would think that this would be a podcast where it's like, just hit record and you'll know what to say, but like leading up to it, I was like, What do you say when it's just kind of what we all thought ⁓ would probably end up happening? Like what does Charlie Brown say after Lucy pulls the football out? Like who do you blame but yourself, right? So I think I'm just mad at me right now. Where are you at? Carl: Yeah, same spot. And I I think, you know, since the off season, since the end of twenty twenty three, I don't know, you can go back any any point in this era and be like, we know how this is gonna end. It's just how specifically is it gonna break our hearts? How exactly how are the trends that we're all aware of but but see blips throughout the season that give us hope that maybe they'll be bucked? ⁓ you know, w what moments are gonna happen that that put us ⁓ you know in into an another winter of misery. ⁓ there's never a way to predict exactly what that's going to be in baseball. But you think you have a handle on it ⁓ you know after an August like they they had. You you think you think they're you know what their strengths are, exactly what their weaknesses are. They're gonna go into the postseason. You're gonna hope for the best with the the predictable set of strengths and weaknesses that you see. And this past week That is all blown up. I in every facet. Everything we talked about in the prior three episodes, I would say. ⁓ the the things we took as certainties and as known, you know, potential trouble spots. It it it's all a trouble spot now. Every every strength we thought we had a week ago even is is suddenly been evaporated. ⁓ you know, the Lusardo news, you you mentioned that already, that that's That's just the kick of the pant in the pants at at the end of a long week of troubling trends and statistics. Pat Barker: Well, i I I'm I'm gonna break down the week in a minute and we can kinda get into it in more detail. I I just wanna say as my closing thought for just this little intro, the most troubling part to me is this isn't done. They are going to win my trust back one or two more times, maybe three or four depending on if they can make a run or not. ⁓ and I will kick the football again and I will miss it again. I this is a This is a terrible thing to say about somebody that you love, but oftentimes we say the things that are meanest about the people that mean the most to us. And I'll I'll say this. These Phillies teams over the last few years, and this isn't gonna make sense on the surface, so just hear me out, but like these last few years of Phillies teams are starting to remind me of the 2007 to 2009 New York Mets. Which is just a brutal thing to say. And I'm not saying it's a good comparison. on on paper. But the thing about those Mets teams is they were very, very good at dragging their fans along to the point of maximum damage. Getting them to the point where it's like this is where we can break your heart the most. And this is the path we could take to get there. O seven and ⁓ eight, of course, the the collapses at the end of the season. But even ⁓ nine where they were bad the whole time, I I tell the story all the time and just an abridged version of it. I was at the Eric Bruntlett unassisted triple play game. And people don't understand the way that game unfolded. Well, it was late August and the Mets were terrible and the fans were defeated. And the Phillies were up six-nothing after one inning, and they build up this huge lead, and the Mets just kinda kept chipping away. And the fans did not buy in until the batter right before Francourt, which was an RBI single to make it nine to seven and to put runners at first and second with nobody out. And that was the moment I felt the fans. They started chirping a little bit at us. They had been quiet the whole game. And then Francour lined into a triple play. And you're just like, that's the funniest thing the Mets could have done. These people went in with their guards up, and the Mets still found a way to penetrate that wall. Carl: Mm-hmm. Pat Barker: and break their spirits again and I'm beginning to feel like these fillies are pretty good at the same thing. ⁓ and it sucks. Carl: Yeah, I I I hate that comparison 'cause it is spot on in a lot of ways. And you didn't even mention what that run was sort of on the heels of, which was the two thousand six NLCS, where it was a heartbreaking finish lost in game seven even after that Andy Chavez catch on Scott Rowland. But like the hope that Mets fans felt like this is the beginning. This is this is just you know what, we didn't It wasn't a done deal this season, but we didn't expect to get this far. Watch out in the next five. And nothing happened for them. And that's how I'm feeling here. Pat Barker: Yeah. And even last year in the I mean, if you look at the Phillies the last few years, two thousand four they had that unbelievable first half where you're like coming off of the twenty twenty three heartbreak, you're like, all right, they got it. They're out for blood. And then they just kinda were really mediocre the rest of the way. And then last year, they should have won every one of those games versus the Dodgers. Every single one they created an opportunity for us to believe they were going to win the game. And in every single one, they failed. ⁓ And then this year it's just like the roller coaster of constantly giving the highs and then having the bottom fall out. And I'm telling you, I will fall for it again and it will happen again. But for now, let's jump into the last week. I i if you guys watched or listened last week, and thank you for that, by the way, hit like or subscribe or whatever, or don't, I don't care. None of this matters. until Lazarus shoulder is better, I don't care if you subscribe or not. It doesn't make a difference to me. ⁓ but Carl: Yeah. Pat Barker: When we hit record last week, it was right after Edmundo Sosa hit the double that should have been the triple. If it had been the triple, it would have led to a sack fly, which would have tied the game. They end up losing six to five to the Astros. after that they come back the next day. Nice 11-7 win. Sanchez uncharacteristically gets hit around, gives up ten hits and six innings. They stick with Sanchez long enough for the Phillies to come roaring back and and win the game. It was very nice. Great to see the offense erupt like that. And then the next day, they do nothing. They lay an egg. They lose two to one to the Astros. Duran taking the loss there, which, of course, is his second consecutive game, which means then they head to Atlanta. And in that first game, ⁓ they did something pretty. ⁓ spectacular. They managed to blow leads in the ninth, tenth, and eleventh innings and route to a loss. ⁓ and we never saw Duran take them out. I know we were texting ⁓ in the group and I was furious about it. It turns out it was more than just, ⁓ it would have been three days in a row. They needed him for the next day because they knew that Jesus Lazardo was gonna miss his start. ⁓ so they go into a bullpen game. Tim Mesa gives you three shutout innings to start, which is unbelievable, and yet he was Carl: Mm-hmm. Uh-huh. It it looked great. Yeah. Pat Barker: Amazing. And then as soon as he left, the wheels fell off. ⁓ Brooks Rayleigh has really not delivered anything. ⁓ what a disappointment of a pickup that's been. ⁓ and then Grant Holman, who it never a good sign when a guy comes in, you're like, I've never heard of this guy and it's the middle of September. ⁓ and ⁓ they they get they get lit up, twelve to two loss. That of course started with the Bryce Harper ⁓ receipt for Acunya running around the bases, which looked really cool when it was one nothing, not so cool when it was twelve to two. ⁓ and then they come back the next day against Atlanta, salvage a game, ⁓ seven runs in the eighth inning. The offense kind of blows up. They have one really good inning and they win it nine to four. ⁓ and as things stand right now, they are in DC and ⁓ Christopher Sanchez just ⁓ gave up the lead. Schwarber hit a homer in the top of the fifth to put him up three to two. Sanchez gave up a homer in the bottom of the fifth. It's three to three. This is two consecutive unimpressive starts for Christopher Sanchez. ⁓ the latest update on Lozardo is ⁓ Mattingley said at the time, I'm not worried. ⁓ if the playoffs were today, he'd be pitching. Now he's on the IL, and Mattingley is not ruling out him playing in the playoffs, which seems crazy because you know they love reassuring everybody. Lazardo is like, ⁓ it feels much better already. Well then how come a week ago, if the playoffs were today, he would have been pitching, and now we're saying it already feels better and with two more weeks of rest, maybe he'll pitch. I don't know, man. ⁓ it's all pretty bad. What jumped out at you from the week? Carl: I think what jumped out at me was the contrast between ⁓ and I'm still thinking about that great run we we had in August and and what and the elements that that popped up that gave the team such juice. And a lot of it was on the margins. We had of course we had the Arise trade and Harper going on an absolute tear the entire month. But the moments you remember, at least the vast majority of them and come from behind victories and and just, you know, the the energetic highlights Where from your your bench guys that have propped up this year and and been pretty great. Your your Derek Hills, your ⁓ Brian Dela Cruz, ⁓ Admundo Sosa started to go on a tear. ⁓ you know, and and those are the things that round out a team and give you a sustained playoff run. What I see in this month is all the guys that are supposed to get you where you're going, the big money guys, the stars. Almost to a man are coming up real small. And they're coming up real small as the schedule gets tough, as the pitching gets more challenging, as the lineups get a little more challenging. I'm not going to lean too heavily on the starting pitching. I'm very concerned about Sanchez. ⁓ I do think he he does not have the edge to his change up right now, and that is that's what makes his whole whole ⁓ itinerary work. ⁓ you know, the and the Luzardo thing's just a disaster. Like I said, it's ⁓ it was the the straw that breaks the countless back this past week. But I'm looking at Kyle Schwarber. ⁓ has had some big, big hits, big grand slam, obviously leads the league in home runs. But just like various postseasons, we see some stronger pitching. We still have him in the lead-off spot, giving us nothing. I mean Uncompetitive at bats. ⁓ he goes on his streaks where he's in between. He's absolutely in between right now. He's behind on the fastball, ⁓ he's ahead on the breaking ball. But when you have, you know, every ⁓ every leadoff slot coming up with not unproductive at bats, like the rest of the lineup's not gonna have much of a shot either. Harper has cooled off. Harper's not only cooled off, I I might want to save him for later, but I'm just gonna lay right into it. ⁓ This is a time, this is a month where ⁓ not only do your superstars need to shine the brightest, but your leaders need to show up. And there's a word that I said a lot this past week that I said at the end of the last two seasons, and I hate using it against my own team, but gutless. They're playing gutless baseball. And the The moment that you mentioned at the beginning of that blowout, that wasn't a blowout yet, when he hit his solo shot early on Saturday night and did his little trot around the bases to try to show up Acuna. The fact that that resulted in the type of game that we had is really indicative of the fact that he's still a leader who doesn't get it. I don't know how far you want to go into this topic. We I I talked a lot about this ⁓ early on in the season, but He's a guy who should be telling everyone to get their asses in gear. Not with that's just not the way to do it. There are there are ways to show up the other team. There are ways to show that you know no one intimidates you. ⁓ he's mimicking another guy's pimp job. He he's i i it's almost like schoolyard, I know you are, but what am I type stuff? It's it's not real. It's not it's not filly. It it's it just feels soft. And I thought that was really indicative of sort of the way the g the team has played baseball the past week, really all of September. ⁓ and then you get to the base running issues. ⁓ all of that adds up to me as gutless baseball. These are guys who are not bearing down, these guys are guys who are not live ⁓ stepping up to the moment and ⁓ you know. Shutting the door on bad teams, getting a leg up on on teams ahead of them in the standings, ⁓ absolutely gave up the division to the Braves. I mean, just three and four against them when four of them were at home, gutless. That's that's the only way I can say it. And I'm not even gonna go into Trey Turner because he's been dog shit for two months, if not longer. ⁓ you know, the the big dogs are are are are just coming up too small. ⁓ at the time when they have to be the ones that carry this team. Pat Barker: Disagree with I ⁓ most of that. I I'm fine with going into the Bryce thing because last week I tried to dig deep on statistics and find out which pitch type Pete Crow Armstrong struggles the most against and it resulted in Jesus Luzardo's shoulder exploding. So I'm not gonna go too deep into any numbers here this week because I frankly I didn't have the energy to do the research. ⁓ I I really feel like this team right now is We gotta talk about feels. Like it it really is more about the vibes and the feelings and all that stuff, right? Which is not as easily quantifiable. But I'll tell you one thing. In in doing my research last week, and I gave you the one stat, how many players on the twenty twenty-two Phillies in the postseason hit above two twenty-five? And it was one. It was Bryce Harper. ⁓ he hit three forty-nine, had an eleven sixty OPS. Schwarber had a terrible batting average, but a 937 OPS. I'll leave Schwarber out of it for now because he gets hot and cold in different series. When he's hot, he's s so hot. And Harper, what I'll say is, and he's he's struggled once or twice, but for the most part. And this goes back to the offseason thing about calling him not elite. And I know it's a hot button topic for podcasts and sports talk radio to Get into the nuances of how Bryce Harper carries himself. And I've said oftentimes I think he's kind of corny and, you know, he's he's fake in a lot of ways and he's patronizing. He's the only fucking guy showing up half the time. And I could sit here and pick a part the way he chooses to run the bases after the home run, or I could pick apart that the rest of the team has no fucking shot at hitting a home run. And to me, I'm so frustrated with this idea that. Carl: Mm-hmm. Pat Barker: And I understand why the the bar is higher, because he makes more money. I got it. But like I I would rather sit there and be like, well, after Tim Mazel left the game, the pitchers gave up twelve runs and five innings. And I know one of those was Garrett Stubbs. So nine runs and four innings. I'd rather focus on the fact that like these guys disappear. Brandon Marsh, we thought had turned a corner, figured something out. He he hasn't figured anything out. He's His numbers are now below his career averages. He's been worse this year than he's been on average. Alec Bohm has one good month a season. Bryson Stott has one and a half good months a season. Trey Turner disappears for four or five months at a time. ⁓ the you know, the starting pitchers, God bless them, but they, you know, the these injuries are just killers. The bullpen can't figure out how I don't trust anybody in that thing except for Duran. ⁓ they can't figure out how to get out at the biggest points. I've been unimpressed with Mattingley's job as manager ⁓ the in the the entire time, to be honest with you. ⁓ and he's still he's still doing it now. He's still doing it now. He's keep platooning Marsh and De La Cruz, even though De La Cruz has an OPS 200 points higher against righties than lefties. Doesn't matter. If a righties in there, he's gonna put Marsh out there because Marsh is a lefty. Never mind the fact that Marsh is hitting like 120 since the All-Star break. It it's just Carl: Yeah. Pat Barker: I'm looking at everybody on this team fail and Harper for four years be really better than everybody else. And I'm just not in the mood to pick apart the way he chooses to be better or how he could be even better than he is currently. It's like, how about the rest of these guys do something worth celebrating incorrectly? How about one of them pimps a home run wrong? They gotta hit a home run first, that's the problem. Carl: It's fair, but as you said, ⁓ the bar is higher. The bar is higher for Bryce Harper. And when there are guys who are making ⁓ horrendous base running errors, I mean I I I I can't even get into each one of them because th they're one is more comical than the last. There's not even anything to evaluate on the field as ⁓ this guy he's thinking this about a a ground ball in front of him, so he he makes that break. It's it's before the pitch is even thrown. The decisions that they they should have known to make ⁓ like aren't even on the landscape for them. And then for for Harper to make the same mistake after, you know, three of them happened that week, ⁓ that's where I and I I know it's it's a different standard and and he he he produces at a higher level than the rest of them, but that is his role. It's it his role is beyond just be the best player. It's supposed to be be the leader, be the example. And for him to make that base running error and also make the just PR team leadership blunder of of the slow trot around the bases. ⁓ I it I it just makes the whole thing feel feel so sour. And it it's hard to feel like you're even a fan of this team at moments because you're so against what you're looking at. Pat Barker: Yeah. I I I can't defend the base running stuff. I can't. That's always been a weakness in his game is the aggressive base running. The difference is when you win, it's a footnote. I I came on here and told a story about how I went to see them in Anaheim a couple weeks ago, and I knew he was going to try to steal home. I n I could tell. I told Aaron sitting next to me, I was like, he's gonna try to steal home, and Aaron was like There's a right-handed pitcher out of the stretch. He's staring right at him. That doesn't make sense. I'm like, I don't care. He's gonna try to steal home. And he did. And he was out by a lot. Might have been safe because of the catcher didn't try to tag him, but whatever. The point is he got thrown the ball reached home a lot faster than he did. And that's because I think that when Bryce feels this pressure of having to be a leader, he feels like the only way he knows how to do that, and this speaks to your point of n not leading the correct way. The only way he knows how to do that is to take the game into his own hands. Problem is in football, Tom Brady could take the game into his own hands because he has the ball every possession. Michael Jordan could take the ball into his hands because he he could demand it whenever he wants it. If you're Bryce Harper, you get four at bats a game, so you're like, I gotta force something on the bases, I gotta make something happen, I gotta really maximize this opportunity. And he runs himself in to stupid outs every year. But if they come in wins, we kind of laugh. It off and we kind of just go, ⁓ Bryce, I love the thought, I love the aggressiveness, and but there's a I wouldn't even say a thin line. There's a very clear demarcation between aggressiveness and stupidity, and he crosses it all the time. That stuff is indefensible. The trot I I'll fall back on. We all loved it when he stared down Arcia. We all loved it. And, you know, it became a thing where it's like, that's that's a leader, you know, so stuff like that that's open to interpretation and can be made to look worse by the performance of his teammates. ⁓ I I I don't fixate on that stuff as much, but in terms of him directly affecting the game, the base running blunders are absolutely unacceptable. I'm with you. Carl: Yeah. And just to put a button on the the Harper part of this cast, ⁓ I also see it in his at bats in in in in that that there is a thin line between feeling like you're the only one who can do anything on the team right now and and understanding that extra level of performing and leading by example and a lot of it has had to do with his plate approach over past several seasons. We talked about this When he went on that tear after the arrige trade, ⁓ it's kind of chicken or egg. Is he seeing better pitches? ⁓ is is is he willing to lay off the pitches because he knows he's got someone behind him, etc. He was understanding the context part of it that you're not batting at on an island. You're you're in a lineup and taking the base, the free pass, sometimes is worth just as much as swinging for the fences. ⁓ I'm seeing this past two weeks. Him falling back into that hero ball stuff. And it just it compounds a a team-wide problem when you're not getting the bats going, you're not working counts, you're not getting that starter out of there, when your best hitter and your leader comes up there and takes that same exact approach and doesn't produce because he's pressing. It's just his spot in the order being like that. is way worse than the eight-hall hitter doing that. And that's the understanding that he never seems to get to ⁓ at this stage in his career, you gotta think he's never going to. And it yeah, it just it's it's the thing that I notice and point to because it is the most prominent and he is the one who needs to make something happen. He need he needs to be the the change that we're looking for. And he never ⁓ he doesn't always quite get it. Pat Barker: And to that point in August, I believe it was twenty-four walks versus eighteen strikeouts, which was unbelievable. Looking now, I see his numbers for the last fifteen games, five walks, seventeen strikeouts, and specifically over the last seven games, one walk, eight strikeouts. I I think that I think Bryce is a guy and Carl: Mm-hmm. There it is. Pat Barker: I think one of the reasons I have a soft spot for Bryce is because I r relate to you ever have a player who has a fault that you also have in your own life and you kinda like I think one thing that always hampered me, you know, when I was like working whatever quote unquote real job, now I live in a goofy fantasy land for as long as I can until I have to, you know, fill out a resume again. But AI will have replaced us all. Who cares? Carl: Sure. Ha ha. Pat Barker: Point is when I had to work at like whatever my regular job was, I'm the kind of guy that when the pressure got turned up, I was like, okay, it's time to turn on the the gas step on the gas. And, you know, it's time to really step up and just work my ass off and like, you know, single-handedly carry this thing. And it's not a good way to kind of go through life, but it's like a reaction. And I think he also I think he's way too in tune with the fans and what people think. And he did his recon when he moved to Philadelphia. He knew exactly what the fans like and what they don't. And I'll tell you this, you're a hundred percent right. I love that twenty-four walk month and I love the approach. But I also sat in the stands for years and listened to people talk shit about Bobby Abreu, another three-hole hitter who walked a whole bunch. And wasn't you know what I mean? But it it's a real kind of thing where it's like Yeah, Harper's twenty-four walk month looked great, but if a rise and bone and those guys weren't delivering behind him, there would have been people talking, and they would have been wrong, by the way, but there would have been people talking about he's making all this money, he needs to drive in runs, he shouldn't be standing there taking walks and then passing the baton to these guys who can't hit behind him. So Carl: Yeah, in in this era, ⁓ conventional baseball, we're we're in a weird spot in baseball right now. With with low averages and you know the true outcome emphasis. ⁓ I think it's apples and oranges, personally, Pat. ⁓ comparing the critiques of Bobby Abreu in 2002 and Bryce Harper in 2026. I'll I'll just I'll leave it at that. Pat Barker: Okay, well, off-air you're gonna have to explain to me how it's apples and oranges, because I I don't I think it's ⁓ I think it's a relatively apt comparison, but we will ⁓ we'll leave we'll put a button in the Harper thing because we have at least a few more episodes before this season ends and something tells me we're gonna want to talk about him again. Let's let's have the Lozardo conversation. Let's get into it. He comes out on Labor Day, throws a complete game shutout in a one-nothing win against the Braves. One of the best filling Phillies pitching performances I've seen in a long time. Carl: Ha ha ha. Pat Barker: time. ⁓ and then his next start, he gets scratched with ⁓ shoulder soreness. They're saying the MRIs came back negative outside of some inflammation. I believe the the goal is to have him play catch sometime in the next couple days, see if he could throw pain free. And if it is indeed a matter of just kind of dealing with pain. ⁓ I would assume he'll get loaded up with all the cortisone shots or cortisol, whatever they do right before the playoffs, the horse tranquilizers, whatever lets Kurt Chilling go out there with his foot falling off, they'll use that same thing on Lazardo. ⁓ But I don't feel confident. ⁓ and it's one reason I hate the quote and all managers do it. It's not just Maddenly, but when he was like, ⁓ if the playoffs were today, he'd be pitching. Okay. Cool, I don't doubt that he's gonna get out there, but it doesn't mean he's gonna be any good or he's gonna be effective. ⁓ and certainly not to the degree that had us saying he should be the number one starter in the playoffs. ⁓ do you see any reason for, you know, any sort of like positive outlook here, or are you in complete panic mode like me? Carl: I'm in I'm in panic mode, of course, but I I have to trust that all right, shutting him down is the right almost preemptive move right now. ⁓ you know, they have a ninety seven percent chance of making the postseason right now, ⁓ as as it stands. ⁓ they're they're very fortunate that the Padres and Diamondbacks play each other the last series of the season. That that should that alone should be what secures us to get into the postseason. ⁓ so in that ⁓ with that in mind, I if it if it's like he's at sixty-five percent right now, and if we needed him to go out and throw, they could. I I'm much more relieved to shut him down entirely for the rest of the season. ⁓ could be that he is, you know, ready to go for even game one of the wild card round. I think unfortunately all of our ⁓ fun plans for what to do with the rotation ⁓ in the postseason that we talked about last week or probably could put ⁓ the the thing that kills me about losing Luzardo is that not only was he ⁓ you know the one of the best pitchers in baseball for the past couple months, I love his fire. He he's a guy I never would call gutless out there, ever. ⁓ There have been games where he was getting lit up and he still like the the type of pissed off he was was the right type. ⁓ he he never he did not want to lose the baseball. He wanted to be out there, he wanted to fight through it. He he's the type of guy you got to go out and rein in. And I love that. I'll take that any day of the week over the other type of player. ⁓ so it's devastating not not to feel like just the juice of saying, you know what? We might get an unbelievable October out of Hays Luce Lazaro. We might ⁓ bump him up in the pecking order here, at least for this month, ⁓ and consider him our true ace. ⁓ that felt like one of those things that are gonna be different this year compared to prior postseasons. ⁓ and now it's now it feels like it's ⁓ has evaporated. ⁓ but that said, shutting him down is the right move regardless. I'm gonna hold out hope that it will, you know, recover enough for him to be effective in October, hopefully somewhere close to the level that he was prior. but everything I know about shoulder inflammation in a starting pitcher, ⁓ it's not good. It doesn't really resolve itself on its own quickly. ⁓ you almost would rather hear about a forearm strain or or ⁓ elbow soreness at this stage in the season than than shoulder inflammation. So made it rush. Yeah. Pat Barker: Yeah, for the for the short term. Certainly. I mean I I I'll take I'll take shoulder inflammation over elbow or or forearm in terms of projecting next season and beyond. But yeah, to try to win some games in October, it's not good. I agree with pretty much everything you said there. and I I do think honestly, for as much as I've kind of like shit on Aaron Nola on this podcast, I I would say that all five of the Philly starters fall ⁓ well outside of the gutless category. I actually think the starters ⁓ are have the most guts of anybody on the team. Even Painter I never felt like he was gutless. I just felt like he was a scared little kid trying to figure it out. ⁓ but he never struck me as somebody who didn't want to be in the on the big stage. And Carl: I agree. Hundred percent. Mm-hmm. Pat Barker: Same with Nola. I didn't trust him there, but that is a guy who for a decade now has taken the ball every fifth day and gone out there and ⁓ you know, thrown a whole bunch of innings and everything like that. So I I gotta give credit where credit is due. ⁓ let me ask you this. With that being said, is there a world where Jesus Lazardo goes to the bullpen now? And you just go Sanchez Wheeler. ⁓ Nola and Painter as your rotation and you try to preserve Lazardo's arm as much as you can while at the same time maybe solving part of your bullpen problem? Carl: Great thoughts. here's how I approach the postseason as it stands right now. Zach Wheeler is my game one starter. Or none. ⁓ Sanchez game two. If we somehow get out of that wild card series after two games, I kind of want Aaronola to be my game one starter for the following season, for the following series. And I I wanna I want to roll back to the plan that we talked about last week, where Luzardo is available in the bullpen in game one, if needed, and then is our game three starter. How however it works with rest days, etc. ⁓ that's how I'd I'd really ideally want it to pan out. But if if his first game back is game th decisive game three for the wild card, I'm not comfortable Starting him over, I I can't believe I'm saying this, Aaron Nola. I I'd rather have him may maybe available. Luzardo with a a quick hook on Nola and and Luzardo's ready right after that. And I believe they did that in a postseason game last season. Am I am I wrong? Nola got a quick hook and was it for Luzardo? Or Suarez. I'm sorry. That's right. Pat Barker: was for Suarez. That was ⁓ yeah, that was game three. Nola pitched the first two and then Suarez pitched the next five. And then Lazardo came in in relief in game four, ⁓ in like the ninth that was the one that went eleven. Carl: And it worked. That's right. That's right. ⁓ that I don't see any other way to plan for this. And that's that's expecting that they will be comfortable with Lozardo being healthy enough to be in any postseason matchup. ⁓ if if he's effective in that, you know, decisive game three or or or later in the next series, you know, we can we can go from there and and continue with the idea that All these guys are available on their for their bullpen session is actually a live game in the postseason. I think that should still be on the table. But right now, shutting him down for the rest of the regular season and then going into that wild card series, I I just I don't want his first time back to be an elimination game. I can't do Pat Barker: Yeah, it can't be. It can't be. And that's why I think at least for the wild card series, maybe to just save everybody, includ I mean, especially him, the uncertainty, you just tell him, We're putting you on the roster, but we're not starting you any of the games. Because Maybe he solves a little bit of the bullpen problem. Maybe you save some bullets using him in a short spurt versus making him throw a hundred pitches. Or maybe somehow you win and you don't have to use him. And now, you know, you could start him game three in the NLDS or something. And now you've given him a month off to kind of like really let the shoulder heal. I want to be really clear here. I don't. Carl: Mm-hmm. Pat Barker: If there's really any significant risk of doing further injury with him pitching in the playoffs, I'd rather they just shut it down, to be honest with you. And I know that sounds crazy because this is a team with a window closing and we feel like this could be it or whatever, but Jesus Lazardo is a guy that I look at look at, and I'm like, no matter what happens with this particular core, this Harper, Schwarber, whatever. Luzardo is a guy I want, you know, as a frontline starter for the next five years. I don't want to fuck that up. Carl: Mm-hmm. I agree with that for sure. ⁓ but the window closing this year supersedes that for me. ⁓ you know, I I guess we could learn more about his diagnosis and the risk of, you know, long-term injury if they put him out there. ⁓ it might not matter. It might be a situation where, you know, the damage is done and he's gonna need a procedure in the offseason, regardless. In that case, let him let him go out there and throw his arm out. ⁓ you know, I'm not the doctor here, but. ⁓ yeah, if if the choice is, you know, potential long-term damage and you know, we're making a postseason run, I'm whipping my horses at at this stage in in this this era. ⁓ you you gotta go for it. Pat Barker: Fair. Fair. ⁓ I I can't be mad at that. ⁓ let me ask you this. We we did a whole episode last week on what arms we trust in October, and I didn't really get into any of the lefties. ⁓ and I think my answers, frankly, are a lot different this week than they would have been last week on a couple of the guys. ⁓ Brooks Rayleigh is a guy that I thought, ⁓ they're just not using him enough, but he's good. ⁓ and now I don't want him anywhere near the mound. I feel com ⁓ Go ahead. Carl: Serving Yeah. I I Pat Barker: Well I was just gonna say I I I I amazingly I feel confident and it's not just based on the one spot start in the bullpen game, but it's based on his last, you know, handful of outings. I have confidence all of a sudden in Tim Mesa. Carl: Yeah, well let's be honest, in what's he been here one and a half seasons? Was he here at all the the full season last year? I think we we got him midseason. He's never been the guy where I I don't ever remember saying, ⁓ here comes fucking Tim Mesa. So and that that's something to be said in this in the bullpen that we've had the last season. ⁓ yeah, he goes out there, he's he's often put in low leverage spots, but Pat Barker: It's true. True. Carl: In spots where we need him for more than one inning, ⁓ that's a lot more than we can say about most of these guys in this ballpen. ⁓ yeah, he he does what he does. He ⁓ he doesn't have anything lights out. He he doesn't tend to walk a lot of guys. I don't I don't remember being pissed that Tim Mays is walking the leadoff hitter again. Like to me, if you're a reliever who just doesn't do that, ⁓ you're already, you know, ⁓ a h up ahead in my depth chart. ⁓ Pat Barker: Mm. Carl: Yeah, I got no problem with us talking about Mesa as a as a good option in the postseason. I mean, what the hell else are we looking at? Pat Barker: Well, we're yeah, we're not looking at Orion Kirkering. ⁓ you talk about somebody that ⁓ you know, walks too many guys. He he's made one appearance since the game that we were at where he gave up the two run homer to Dubon. He came in in mop up duty in that twelve to two loss and he retired four batters and walked three. So he's done. He's done. I don't know if he's injured. The fact that they didn't pitch him for eight days tells me there's something physically wrong with him in addition to just being bad. ⁓ but if that's the case, also put him on the IL and call up literally anybody. Carl: Yeah, why why why hide at at this point I don't buy that as a possibility. Why why hide that? What are we what are we salvaging by not putting them on the shelf? I I don't get it. Pat Barker: Yeah, I'm I'm I'm thinking maybe like a mi I'm not talking about like a like an arm injury, but like something where, you know, he has lower back discomfort or something like that. But what I'm saying is now I don't care if it's a hangnail, whatever excuse you can come up with to get him on the IL, not that I think there's great options in Triple A. We know there's not, but this is the point of the season where it's like we just got you gotta try something 'cause Kirkering is not going to be Carl: Mm-hmm. Pat Barker: taking the ball in October. He can't. He just can't. ⁓ Alex McFarlane on the other hand has rebounded nicely, ⁓ over the last week from giving up that three run homer to Acunya. That certainly appears like a blip on the radar, so I I feel good about him. ⁓ Carl: And and ⁓ on that point, that was one bright spot this past week. It was not only that he performed, but that Mattingley put him in the spot that he did. He put him right back into a high leverage inning and and he he he pulled through. That was huge to me. ⁓ I'm glad to see they still have confidence in Pat Barker: Yeah, me too. ⁓ and you know, some of that to be fair might be a lack of other options. I I don't know what I don't know what you do. You gotta put somebody out there. ⁓ but we have now reached a point where this is deeply upsetting, but it's like if they're going to if they're gonna go anywhere in October, they need contributions Carl: It's all relative. Pat Barker: in some way, shape, or form from Aaron Nola and Andrew Payner. And I did not wanna have to sit here in the middle of September and say that. But that is absolutely where we're at. And I think Nola might be the ultimate example of me allowing them to break my heart again. Because I have been out on Aaron Nola for the last probably two and a half seasons at this point. Definitely the last two seasons. Carl: Uh-huh. Pat Barker: And now I think I have been tricked enough into believing that he might be past whatever was messing him up the last couple of years. And I'm literally sitting here like, yeah, if there's a third game against the Cubs, I think Aaron Nola is my guy. Carl: That's incredible, Pat, because I remember being at a game with you, I think, two seasons ago. it was early in the season, and Nola hadn't even like shown that he was gonna have a good or bad year, and you just turned to me and said, Aaron Nola stinks. You said it with with with such definitiveness. Like that was that opinion would never change the rest of your life. So to hear you say that here is either a a a a remarkable story of of ⁓ redemption or ⁓ the state that we're in right now. Pat Barker: I'm gonna I'm gonna lean towards the latter. I I need straws to grasp at. and ⁓ I I yeah, I've always thought because it's the same thing as like Stott and ⁓ you know, Bohm and now Marsh too, where it's like they show promise and then they never really develop. And it always drove me nuts that Nolo like a top three Cy Young guy in twenty eighteen, and then he was just kinda like fine. And You know, that always bothered me because I feel like there's another level. I saw it. And he never was able to get back there. And it's not like he had an injury that set him back or anything. He just like wasn't able to be that same guy again. And stuff like that drives me nuts. And I think it gives guys a lot of grace with the fans, especially if they're homegrown players. There's nothing Phillies fans want more than a homegrown player to succeed. And, you know, I I felt like Nola had been pitching below, you know, his his skill level for years. And maybe now he lowered the bar enough to where I'm like, he's pitching above his skill level. And ⁓ maybe that's what turned me. But ⁓ yeah, I mean I think I think for the first time in a long time I have a little bit of confidence in Aaron Nola. Where are you at with Nola and Painter? Carl: Well, there there's a reason. There there's a very ⁓ identifiable reason to have a little more confidence in Nola. It's not just the results, it's how he's getting there. He has changed his approach to hitters. He is relying he's setting up with that knuckle curve rather than, you know, relying on his fastball to be the one that sets up the knuckle curve. It it's it's a completely reverse approach, and it's the right move to make when you're at this point in your career and the VLO's not there anymore. ⁓ you know, I was getting real frustrated with the way he was leaving the knuckle curve hanging, and I think it's because he was still chasing that VLO with the fastball. And we're talking about three years of this, is what was happening with him. His the pumpkin inning, as I always call it, where he would look good for three and get lit up in one, and then maybe they'd throw him back out there because the game fell out of reach and he'd be fine for another two or three. it just looks like he's attacking hitters the way ⁓ Pat Barker: Mm-hmm. Carl: his arsenal mandates and and he's executing. So I I do feel confident in him in a way that I even if he like, you know, had a blip September where he started to do well the past couple years, I wouldn't have the kind of confidence I have in him right now then. So ⁓ yeah, I I think he's gonna be an effective pitcher, whether he's gonna be able to shut down elite teams ⁓ I don't know, but you know, if you're only getting if you're getting six ⁓ innings and and three to four runs out of Aaronola in a ⁓ a a a deep playoff series, I think you take that to the bank right now. Pat Barker: Yeah. It's a it's an outstanding point, the way he's pitching backwards to how he was, you know, years ago. and it's it really is the the better way for him to pitch because the thing is the the knuckle curve always used to be the puttaway pitch. You'd use the the fastball to set up the knuckle curve And then, you know, you bury the knuckle curve. Every now and then you hang one. He's always had a tendency to give up some home runs. And I think because if you're throwing the knuckle curve with two strikes and you hang it, you're just speeding guys' bats up and you know, that's that's where you get hit. But He does have an uncanny ability to get that knuckle curve over for a strike. So for him to start out with that and not have it be the chasing in the dirt pitch, but rather the establishing myself pitch, it's gonna make that fastball, which is pretty mediocre at this stage in his career, look three to four miles an hour faster again. So you're absolutely right. He's completely changed his approach and ⁓ that's a great call. And ⁓ that that's that gives me a lot of confidence in Nola. Thank you for verbalizing that because I hadn't really thought about it. Now, Painter, on the other hand, also looks like a change pitcher. I mean, he went down to the minors, he came back, he made some adjustments, and outside of a few innings here or there where he has looked Carl: Mm-hmm. No doubt. Pat Barker: Bad. ⁓ not like, ⁓ yeah, he has a few innings where he doesn't look sharp. No, he just looks bad, but then he's able to kind of flip a switch and and turn it on, which is not ideal in the playoffs with the short leashes. I don't know how to feel about Andrew Painter after all this. I i if nothing else when I two months ago, I if nothing else, I had certainty. And certainty feels good. Now I'm sitting here and I'm like, I don't know what we're gonna get out of this guy or what to expect or even how to use him. What do you think? Carl: Well, ⁓ I'm gonna take a real glass half full approach to that. Neither are opponents. They're not gonna know what to expect out of Andrew Painter either. ⁓ I can't specifically ⁓ talk to what his approach to hitters has been. He's still learning that. ⁓ but I know that he has figured out the mechanics of his fastball and I also know that when he starts a game or loses it, you know, early in a game, he knows how to get back to the right mechanics. And that that is remarkable to me for a guy who can touch the kind of velocity that he does, who's as big as he is. you know, the longer you are, the more ⁓ little mechanical issues ⁓ that can affect you. ⁓ there there's more body to to set on the wrong path off off the mount. ⁓ and the fact that just the mental aspect of what he's shown us in several of these starts where You I was at the game in Minnesota we talked about where he he just got tattooed in the first inning, stuck around for another five and they won the game. you can't have that happen in the postseason, obviously, and expect to win, but again, that like ⁓ I talked about everyone else feeling gutless on this team. It's not the starters, and Andrew Payner is has not shown that he's one of those. He he he has shown real guts out there. So I'll take that. He's got the stuff. He's he's unknown to some of the teams that were gonna play in the playoffs, relatively, and he's gotta be part of the the the plan going into the postseason. And I think a couple weeks ago we would said we know he's not gonna be the one who can come out of the bullpen because he was getting lit up in the first inning of a few games, but he's had a couple starts where that's not happened. ⁓ and yeah, we we With Lozardo down, we we have to again be even more creative than we were a week ago. So he's in there and if they put him out there, I'm gonna be fully confident in him. Pat Barker: It's all can do. It's all you can do at this point. I i if nothing else, the same way I defended Harper being like, Well, he's the only one showing up like ⁓ in historically over the last few years. I I'm not in a position to Criticize anyone who has been showing up recently. ⁓ and Painter has. Has it been perfect? No. Has it been encouraging? Yes. And I guess at this point all you can do is say, I am going to trust him until he gives me a reason not to, which I'm sure will happen. But w what else are you supposed to do? We have five minutes left in this episode, and I want to ask you. And I was trying to come up with a way how to get into it. And then thankfully he gave me a way into it. ⁓ I'm just checking on the score right now. The Phillies are now down six to three. Jonathan Bolin, but I want to talk about Don Mattingley. He leaves Sanchez in to try to get through seven. Sanchez, it's a three-three game, six innings. He's given up three runs. He allows ⁓ Carl: Jonathan Bolin. Pat Barker: couple of base runners and ⁓ I believe one run. All I know is Bolin came in or no, I guess Bolin came in when it was still tied and served up the three run home or two of the runs charged to Sanchez. Now when we did this episode last week, I haven't looked at the updated stats, but at that point Bolin had given up a home run in three of his previous four outings, which needless to say, when you're a reliever is a lot. ⁓ and now Bolin comes in and gives up another big home run. I want to talk actually about Mattingley, and I'll turn it over to you so you have the duration of these last three or four minutes. ⁓ I said earlier I haven't been impressed by him. This is another example to me. Bolin is a a guy that should not be getting the ball in any sort of high lever. And I know there's not a lot of options, but putting Bolin out there. To inherit those r I'd rather Sanchez give up the runs himself at this point than ⁓ trust Bolin to bail him out. ⁓ give me your overall thoughts on Mattingley and maybe this move in particular if you'd like. Carl: Yeah, this move in particular, and it it it does speak to Mattingley and and how he reminds me of Rob Thompson ⁓ in moments like this. ⁓ Bolin right now reminds me of twenty twenty three Craig Kimbrell. he was so obviously cooked, he was so obviously gonna give up that big home run. And just because that was his assigned role, like it was what was on his name tag Pat Barker: Yeah. Carl: Topper would put him out there in that situation when every b ⁓ the sixty five thousand people around him knew it was the wrong move and he just went with the motions. And Mattingley, I think you gave me the first insight into him that that to expect a lot of the same. ⁓ having watched him in LA for a number of years. I did I remember liking his Marlins teams for for some of the fight that they had, but that might have just been a function of, you know, their their the lowest payroll and and and somewhat successful. So you you kind of classify them as a a well managed tough team. ⁓ Pat Barker: We fell for the same thing with Girardi, by the way. Don't forget Girardi was manager of the year in his only season with the Marlins. And we were all like, ⁓ if he can win with the Marlins, that's the same kind of thing we did with Mattingley. People forget Mattingley spent six years in Miami and only had one winning season and it was the COVID season. But go on. Carl: ⁓ that's a great call. That's a great call. Mm-hmm. That's that's that's upsetting. And ⁓ and much like the Girardi years, ⁓ I remember the feeling this is the most fundamentally unsound baseball team I've ever seen. ⁓ in every aspect, including the aspects that they themselves were outstanding at as players. I I it it confuses me so much. I mean, Joe Girardi was a a ⁓ just a model backstop. in in in the major leagues. Don Mattingley, I mean, top five defensive ⁓ first baseman, ⁓ just a a a a professional hitter. you just don't see any any changes in in guys under him. ⁓ bullpen management I don't I don't even know that I see a trend with him that I can point to that I don't trust, but I know I don't trust him. ⁓ that and that's unfortunate. And it could be just be a function of the guys that he has, but when we talk about ⁓ you know, the times when we see Alvarado brought in when you could have just left the starter out or whatever other guy was in front of him, ⁓ bringing bringing Kirkering into a dirty inning, you know that's not the move ever. How many times has he done that? ⁓ yeah, I there's just a lot of that where I feel like everybody knows what not to do in a moment and that's the one that he makes. So I don't know what else to say. Pat Barker: Yeah, and my last thought ⁓ on this, and I we don't have time for you to answer this rhetorical question, but when you bring up a guy like Alex McFarlane, who has been a starter for the duration of his time in the minors, who's clearly comfortable doing an updown and coming back for a second inning, why he's really our only dependable arm and in tight situations ⁓ in must-win games, he seems to be limited to one inning, I don't totally understand. But ⁓ I'll leave I'll leave I'll leave that there. ⁓ Carl: Mm-hmm. Perfect example. Pat Barker: ⁓ if nothing else, these last few episodes of the podcast this season are going to be very, very interesting because we are either in the middle of an epic free fall, completing our metamorphosis into the ⁓ seven, ⁓ eight Mets, or we are going to have the football put back on the T and have a chance to s kick it and miss again in October. Either way, ⁓ Carl: Okay. Pat Barker: I'm excited to talk about it with my buddies. ⁓ we'll be back next week with another episode of the specific Johns. Thanks as always for checking us out. Tell a friend or whatever. ⁓ until next time, I'm Pat Barker at Carl Bakudi Go Fills. Carl: Yo fells.