Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Ethereum To $5k Next?📉Crypto Market Update

Transcript

Ethereum To $5k Next?📉Crypto Market Update · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: All right, today, let's get into it. All time high
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: for Ethereum. Could five K be in the cards today?
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: I'll break it down for you. My name is Paul Barrel.
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: Welcome back into the show. I want to thank our
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: sponsor today and that is Gemini. You guys can get
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: your Gemini credit card on over there, and the cool
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: thing is you can get the XRP edition. It is
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: a limited edition, so make sure and use our link
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: down below. You'll be able to kind of go over
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: there and select which run you want to use. You
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: can actually use any crypto in terms of getting rewards,
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: which is real time on every purchase out there, breaking
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: down some of the purchases gas, ev transit, dining, groceries,
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: everything else. And of course you do get that extra
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: bonus which is two hundred bucks in XRP by just
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: signing up and spending your first three thousand, so that
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: will get you going. It is a MasterCard world Elite.
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: Check it out and use our link. Let's go over
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: to the first tweet right here. Fed shair Palace caved
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: one month. Then the FED will cut and we expect
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: a weaker labor market. I think that's going to be
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: the case. Going forward is that it's going to take
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: some time for this to adjust in. I don't think
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: this cut is going to change things very quickly. Expect
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: more pain in the labor market, which means that the
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: FED is cutting into high inflation and job losses. That's stagflation, guys.
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: It's not a good position for the FED. In general,
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: public confidence very low on the FED right now. Only
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: thirty seven percent of US adults say they had a
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: great deal of or a fair amount of confidence that
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: the that the FED chair will do anything right for
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: the economy. This is not looking good for Chair Pal
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: as he made his last statement over at Jackson holl
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: He's been up there, I think eight times. So not
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: going to happen. Now, let's take a look at the
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: FED decision right here on polymarket hovering right at around
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: seventy five percent as we're recording right here on August
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: twenty fifth, So you can kind of see this is
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: a big deal because I think we are on point
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: for starting to see multiple rate cuts through the end
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: of the year. The question is how many I want
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: to go to a quick clip here. This is of course,
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: gets in a little more detail about what people did
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: not like at the Jackson Hole event. Take a look.
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: But what next? He didn't give much clarity on what
• 2:04
  Speaker 2: happens after September, and then he said almost nothing about
• 2:09
  Speaker 2: the policy implications of all the structural changes that he
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: mentioned in the labor force, in the trading system, in
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: the operation of the domestic economy. That matters because it
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: matters for key issues of monetary policy, the level of interest,
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: rac equilibrium level, limited racy, equilibrium level of the balance sheet,
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: and it also matters for the framework. The last thing
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: we want is a framework that once again is dead
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: on arrival, or like the Wall Seat Journal characterized the
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: twenty twenty which was the most poorly time change in
• 2:43
  Speaker 2: the monet framework. So I'm glad for what he said,
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: but I'm disappointed for what he did not cover. So,
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: first of all, Jackson Hall is the place to do it.
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: This was his last Jackson Hall. He's had eight of them.
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: You would have expected him to talk about lesson learned,
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: You would expect of to keep the strategy issues, but
• 3:03
  Speaker 2: he didn't, and that's because his tendency is to be
• 3:07
  Speaker 2: data dependent, not strategic, all right.
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: So one of the things that you have to look
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: at there is the clarity of forward looking statements, and
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: I think that is something that the FED doesn't really
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: do because they are looking at reversing and you know,
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: data from behind them, you know, as opposed to forward
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: looking statements. I think you still have to look at
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: what some of the CEO's are the biggest companies in
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: the US say, because those are the ones that basically
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: our feet on the ground. They are in a position
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: where they know what their labor market is and they
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: know what their consumer market is, and they're reporting this
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: mostly because what they're seeing is in their store sales.
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: So be on the lookout for that. I think we're
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: going to continue to see problems there. However, with all that,
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: the FED cuts interest rates within two percent of the
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: stock market all time highs, and the S and P
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: five hundred has gone on to finish higher over the
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: next twelve months twenty out of twenty times. That's a
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: good bet, guys, one hundred percent right there. Other points
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: I want to show you is the US stock market
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: hitting its most expensive valuation in history, surpassing the dot
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: com bubble and the run up to the Great Depression.
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: This is the nineteen twenty nine that was the big
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: run up to nineteen twenty nine, and then of course
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: the big ball. Now, the nineteen ninety nine scenario plays
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: out kind of interesting because many people are looking at
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: this zone right here as to where we are right now.
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: So the potential of more significant growth is there by
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: a lot of stock analysts and money managers that are
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: looking at this based on moving into a much more
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: different strategy, I should say, of where the FED is going,
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: and the fact that most likely we're going to see
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: some printing. Sixty eight percent of the S and P
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: five hundred stocks are now trading above their two hundred
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: day moving average most of this year, continuing to be
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: very strong bullish elements for the market in general. I
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: want to go to another clip, and this clip is
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: going to go into why did crypto pull back? Everybody's
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: wondering over the weekend it pulled back? Well, why take
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: a look?
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: That's interesting?
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: I mean, why after Jackson Hole is everything pulling back?
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: Because I think a lot of people thought it'd be
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: risk on. Everybody's ready to kind of take those risk
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: of your bets, you.
• 5:14
  Speaker 3: Know, and it may still be so. I think what
• 5:16
  Speaker 3: we're seeing over the weekend is a lot of liquidations
• 5:19
  Speaker 3: that were triggered. The price of eth just ran up
• 5:22
  Speaker 3: so high so quickly. The last time it hit an
• 5:24
  Speaker 3: all time high was twenty twenty one, and every time
• 5:26
  Speaker 3: it reaches that mark, it's never really able to meaningful,
• 5:30
  Speaker 3: meaningfully break it. So I think, you know, the TLDR
• 5:33
  Speaker 3: here is, you know, it's still it's pulled back, but
• 5:36
  Speaker 3: it's still at forty six hundred, which is still kind
• 5:38
  Speaker 3: of a good spot for it to be, all right.
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: So one of the things you have to consider there
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: is the fact that many people in this cycle have
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: seen all time highs. They've seen it in bitcoin, they've
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: seen it an eighth why not take some profits? So
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: is that the potential of what's happening right now or
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: are they just exiting the market a little bit early.
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: I think this is the question that everybody's going to
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: be looking to as we start to go to the
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: latter half. Retail's appetite for risk is now breaking records.
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: We continue to see a lot more options as shares
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: of the total S and P five hundred options volume
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: have averaged about sixty five percent so far in Q three.
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: This is a big deal because this is the first
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: time I've seen retail starting to outpace what's been happening
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: in structured finance, So another good indicator going forward. And
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: of course over the weekend, ETH hitting its all time
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: high at forty nine hundred. Could we see a five
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: K before end of August? I think so yes, And
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: my long term outlook toward the end of year is
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: still hovering around seven K, which I think is more
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: of a psychological number. Eight is really the chart number
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: that many people were pointing to, unless you're Tom Ley
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: and he thinks he's going to go to fifteen K.
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: But that is where I'm looking toward the end of
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: the year. Bitcoin again, not financial advice. That's something that
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: I'm looking at and compared to what I see in
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: the ecosystem where ETH is today, this is what they
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: were talking about. A bitcoin whale sold twenty four thousand
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: bitcoin worth over two point seven billion dollars, causing a
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: little bit of a crash over the weekend. I think
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: a lot of people were questioning, why would they do
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: such a thing? Did they put it back into ETH
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: at an all time high at forty nine hundred, don't
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: know that would have been a bad trade. ETHTF outflows
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: two hundred and forty one thousand last week, and ethereum
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: is dumping. More people are selling just to cover risk.
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: I think we'll see a cycle in this, and then
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: you'll see a return to more inflows. Stable Coins already
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: holding more US treasuries than Germany, that's the third largest
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: economy in the world. Guys. This is a big factor
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: because if we continue to export US dollars via stable coins,
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: treasury backstop is going to become a real strategy that
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: is going to make Scott Bessant and Trump look brilliant,
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: because it's very possible they could get into position where
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: they could back out of the pressure coming from the
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: Japanese support of US treasuries if stable coins get exported
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: enough worldwide. Vitallic Buterin comes on and says, well, wait
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: a minute, we think that you can't necessarily plan on
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: prediction markets if you're trying to predict how the markets
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: are going to go, and this of course to really
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: protect ethereum traders. If you look at a couple of
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: his statements right here, problem he explained structural, a lot
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: of these platforms don't offer really any interest sparing instruments.
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: Any users got to give up yields and then without
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: an incentive, you're pretty much done because for Hedger's the
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: function mainly is just a betting in the speculator. Yeah,
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: I agree with that that's most likely going to be
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: the case, and the markets are going to struggle a
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: little bit to kind of replicate that. But I do
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: think that he's right here, and that is he thinks
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: there's going to be a new class of derivatives structured
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: products that may end up filling the void here, and
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: that could be a good thing for eth in general.
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: Not good for prediction markets, but good for eth in general.
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: Further in is the US government is going to be
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: taking ownership and more companies. I don't like this. I'm
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: a smaller government kind of guy, and any time a
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: US government is starting to reach in here, it just
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: reminds me of these golden shares coming out of China.
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: Not a good thing. I know. Trump has his whole
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: theory of entrepreneurialship and you know, supporting companies, but some
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: of these companies, if they're just not doing well, let
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: them die, no more government bailouts. Just get to that point,
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: and I think that is something they should be doing.
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: Robinhood announced over in the EU that stock tokens available
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: for EU investors are now available. No hidden fees on Robinhood.
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: Only a point one FX fee applies to each order.
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: When are we going to see this in the United States, Flad?
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: We need to get this rolling here. Let's get things
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: moving again. I think robin Hood's got a lot on
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: their plate because they've got banking coming in here to
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: the US later this year. Even though they've started to
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: kind of backtrack on that, they haven't launched the credit
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: card fully. So that's another issue that plays out if
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: you look at the market right now. Eth of course
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: trading as we're recording around forty five one hundred, forty
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: four hundred again, many people will look at this as
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: a pullback and a pop sable opportunity going forward towards
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: end of week. Stay tuned right here. We're going to
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: be covering this and much more this week. If you're
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: not in the diamond circle, make sure and get in
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: on that. It's a great place to get additional content
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: and it's absolutely free. Follow me on X at Paul Baron.
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: We'll catch you next time right here on the Paul
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: Baron Show.