How confident can we be in past performance?
Paul Merriman responds to a podcast listener who wrote: “I am convinced your 4-Fund Combo is a portfolio I want to add to my portfolio. My question is, how confident are you in the past performance of these four asset classes from 1970-2019 AND how confident can we be about any performance?"
Before digging into the specifics of the 4-Fund Portfolio, I re-read a 2015 MarketWatch article (written with Rich Buck) entitled, 10 things you should know about portfolio performance.
To help investors get a sense of how difficult it is to pin down future returns, I looked back at the period from…
The skinny
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