Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - Why Trump’s Dollar Collapse Actually Makes Sense (most aren’t ready) + Stock Market News 30 January 2025

Transcript

Felix Prehn - Why Trump’s Dollar Collapse Actually Makes Sense (most aren’t ready) + Stock Market News 30 January 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  SPEAKER_00: If you hold a 401k, a savings account, bonds or cash, shares, ETFs, what I'm about to reveal to you could mean the difference between preserving that wealth through the biggest monetary shift in 50 years, or watching the value of it get silently destroyed, while most investors completely miss what's happening.
• 0:20
  SPEAKER_00: President Trump was just asked about the dollar falling to a four-year low, down 11% in just a year, and his response doing great.
• 0:32
  SPEAKER_00: Now, while most people scrolled past this headline, what they missed is literally the single biggest investment signal of the year.
• 0:40
  SPEAKER_00: This deliberate dollar devaluation is transferring trillions in wealth from one asset class to another.
• 0:47
  SPEAKER_00: And if you're positioned wrong, you're well, you're gonna be on the losing side of this.
• 0:51
  SPEAKER_00: My promise to you is that by the end of this video, you'd understand the process.
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_00: You understand what's the most likely to happen, so you can position yourself better.
• 0:58
  SPEAKER_00: This is not fear-mongering, this isn't dooming and glooming, as much fun as that could be.
• 1:03
  SPEAKER_00: This is actually to give you the knowledge and the skills and to give you the training you need to understand what's going on here.
• 1:10
  SPEAKER_00: My name is Felix, I'm a former investment banker and economist.
• 1:13
  SPEAKER_00: That's Winston back there, who's clearly the brains behind it all.
• 1:17
  SPEAKER_00: And we are also the founder of the GOAT Academy.
• 1:19
  SPEAKER_00: We've taught well over 20,000 students.
• 1:21
  SPEAKER_00: We've also co-founded the TradeVision.io, where we make news and data that's institutional level available to you, none of that mainstream fear-mongering nonsense out there.
• 1:32
  SPEAKER_00: And for this video, we've gone through Fed data, institutional trading data, historical monetary policy precedence.
• 1:40
  SPEAKER_00: We've gone back to part pre-Nixon, with of course, you know, help of Winston's uh very large nose to sniff it all out.
• 1:47
  SPEAKER_00: And we're gonna break down three critical things for you.
• 1:50
  SPEAKER_00: First, America's debt trapped and why it can't be solved.
• 1:55
  SPEAKER_00: Second, the secret wealth transfer happening right now from cash holders to asset owners.
• 2:01
  SPEAKER_00: And third, exactly which asset class is positioned as the modern safe haven, and it's actually not what most people think.
• 2:08
  SPEAKER_00: So by the end of this video, you'll understand exactly how to protect and potentially grow your wealth, while most investors are going to get slaughtered.
• 2:16
  SPEAKER_00: Sorry, that's true.
• 2:17
  SPEAKER_00: Okay, let's just get us all up to the same base level of understanding of a couple of numbers.
• 2:23
  SPEAKER_00: America's national debt is 38 trillion plus,$100,000 plus for every single American man, woman, and possibly golden retriever.
• 2:31
  SPEAKER_00: So for the American average household, that is$266,000, because apparently you live in families of 2.3.
• 2:39
  SPEAKER_00: Um I don't know what the 0.3 is.
• 2:41
  SPEAKER_00: Maybe it's a very small person, maybe the golden retriever counts, maybe it's three cats.
• 2:45
  SPEAKER_00: You let me know in the comments.
• 2:46
  SPEAKER_00: Anyway.
• 2:47
  SPEAKER_00: But what makes it worse is that the US debt to GDP ratio.
• 2:52
  SPEAKER_00: Now, to put that into like household terms, imagine your annual salary is$100,000, but you owe$126,000 on a credit card.
• 3:04
  SPEAKER_00: Now, the US government's a little bit bigger than that, so they pay$3.3 billion every single day in interest.
• 3:11
  SPEAKER_00: That could fund infrastructure, education, healthcare.
• 3:14
  SPEAKER_00: Instead, it's vanishing into the pockets of, well, the wealthy.
• 3:20
  SPEAKER_00: Now you might be thinking I'm exaggerating the severity of this currency crisis, but no, don't take my word for it.
• 3:26
  SPEAKER_00: Listen to what the man himself, Warren the Buffett, the world's greatest investor, has to say about this exact issue.
• 3:35
  SPEAKER_00: So there you have the Oracle himself.
• 3:37
  SPEAKER_00: The natural course of government is to make the currency worthless over time.
• 3:42
  SPEAKER_00: It's not a conspiracy theory, it's the reality of the world we live in.
• 3:46
  SPEAKER_00: And it's exactly why asset positioning matters now more than ever.
• 3:50
  SPEAKER_00: So let me show you the historical patterns.
• 3:54
  SPEAKER_00: Because this isn't the first time a major power has faced this situation.
• 3:58
  SPEAKER_00: In 1971, President Nixon faced a very similar crisis.
• 4:03
  SPEAKER_00: Bloody foreign countries were demanding their gold for their dollar.
• 4:06
  SPEAKER_00: Imagine the cheek, right?
• 4:07
  SPEAKER_00: They should have just trusted the Americans, shouldn't they?
• 4:09
  SPEAKER_00: And um the US was running out of gold.
• 4:11
  SPEAKER_00: So on August 15th, 1971, mark this day, it's important.
• 4:16
  SPEAKER_00: Uh Nixon did something fairly radical.
• 4:18
  SPEAKER_00: He ended the gold standard.
• 4:20
  SPEAKER_00: He said it was temporary.
• 4:22
  SPEAKER_00: It's a that's a funny word, isn't it?
• 4:24
  SPEAKER_00: It's like inflation is transitory.
• 4:26
  SPEAKER_00: People believe this stuff, apparently.
• 4:28
  SPEAKER_00: Um, 55 years ago, so it's been temporarily un undollared, ungolden standard for 55 years.
• 4:35
  SPEAKER_00: So what happened next?
• 4:36
  SPEAKER_00: Well, the dollar lost 87% of its purchasing power.
• 4:39
  SPEAKER_00: 87% just from 71 until today.
• 4:44
  SPEAKER_00: So if you held cash, your cash would now be worth 12% of what it was.
• 4:49
  SPEAKER_00: Now, if you held assets, stocks, gold, real estate, gold, you won.
• 4:55
  SPEAKER_00: And then we got in 1985 something that's called the plaza call.
• 4:59
  SPEAKER_00: You might hear that phrase thrown around quite a bit.
• 5:02
  SPEAKER_00: The G5 nations, so the the big five, agreed to deliberately weaken the dollar to fix the trade deficit.
• 5:10
  SPEAKER_00: Now it worked.
• 5:11
  SPEAKER_00: The dollar fell, but Japan got crushed.
• 5:14
  SPEAKER_00: Uh yes, sorry, Japanese friends.
• 5:16
  SPEAKER_00: Um that was that was American arranged, my humble opinion.
• 5:19
  SPEAKER_00: Uh their currency appreciated so fast, it created a massive bubble, and then they got their lost decades of economic stagnation.
• 5:28
  SPEAKER_00: So when major powers face debt crises, they devalue their own currency.
• 5:33
  SPEAKER_00: Basically, it's inflation by design.
• 5:35
  SPEAKER_00: It's the same playbook that we're running right now, once again, under this president.
• 5:41
  SPEAKER_00: And the reason it's simple, it's irresistible for politicians.
• 5:46
  SPEAKER_00: So, yes, you can print money, and they are printing money, they're printing a lot of money, and it's going to cause inflation.
• 5:51
  SPEAKER_00: Not hyperinflation, but significant inflation.
• 5:55
  SPEAKER_00: You could cut spending, nobody wants to do that, it's just unpopular.
• 5:58
  SPEAKER_00: And if you're a politician, you're by the nature of the beast a person who needs popularity.
• 6:04
  SPEAKER_00: Therefore, you will do the popular thing.
• 6:06
  SPEAKER_00: Cutting things rarely is.
• 6:08
  SPEAKER_00: Um see what Elon tried to do, right?
• 6:10
  SPEAKER_00: Didn't wouldn't work out very well, did it?
• 6:13
  SPEAKER_00: And you could default on the debt.
• 6:14
  SPEAKER_00: Well, if you do that, it's all over.
• 6:16
  SPEAKER_00: So nobody wants to do that.
• 6:17
  SPEAKER_00: So what's the real solution?
• 6:19
  SPEAKER_00: There is only one path that actually makes sense.
• 6:22
  SPEAKER_00: It's a controlled devaluation of the dollar through inflation.
• 6:25
  SPEAKER_00: You make the debt smaller by making the dollar worth less.
• 6:29
  SPEAKER_00: So if you owe somebody$100 and they're only$100 in the world, that's a lot of money.
• 6:34
  SPEAKER_00: If you owe somebody$100 and there are$1 million in the world, it's a small amount of money.
• 6:39
  SPEAKER_00: That's the same sort of principle.
• 6:40
  SPEAKER_00: So what happens?
• 6:41
  SPEAKER_00: Well, asset prices go up, but the debt says the same number.
• 6:45
  SPEAKER_00: And that's what Trump meant by, I think it's great.
• 6:49
  SPEAKER_00: Now, before I show you exactly how this wealth transfer works and which stocks are positioned as safe havens here, and which industries and which sectors, I want to give you something more in-depth for those of you who are ready to actually learn.
• 7:04
  SPEAKER_00: And that is Wall Street essentially moves a lot of money around.
• 7:09
  SPEAKER_00: They move it from one industry to another, from gold to silver to tech stocks, to biotech to AI, whatever.
• 7:16
  SPEAKER_00: And all, in my humble opinion, you actually got to do is follow that money trail.
• 7:21
  SPEAKER_00: And they're big footsteps, they're like elephant footsteps because the amount of money is so large.
• 7:25
  SPEAKER_00: And once you know how to look for that and where to look for that, I think things can look very, very different.
• 7:30
  SPEAKER_00: And your system for investing in selection of stocks becomes very, very different.
• 7:35
  SPEAKER_00: So if you want to learn that skill, which is what I learned from my Wall Street mentors, then there is a short video I recorded for you.
• 7:42
  SPEAKER_00: It's like 17 minutes long, I think.
• 7:44
  SPEAKER_00: You can get that feedixfrends.org slash get free.
• 7:46
  SPEAKER_00: So I put a link down below to that, and that's for you guys who are a bit more, you know, serious about managing your money.
• 7:52
  SPEAKER_00: Now let me show you the wealth transfer mechanism that's happening right now.
• 7:55
  SPEAKER_00: It's already started.
• 7:56
  SPEAKER_00: When the dollar declines by 11% in a year, here's what actually happens.
• 8:01
  SPEAKER_00: Say you have$100,000 in savings, you just lost$11,000.
• 8:08
  SPEAKER_00: Your salary buys$11,000 less if it's$100,000.
• 8:13
  SPEAKER_00: That's how severe that is.
• 8:15
  SPEAKER_00: You hold bonds while they pay interest in dollars that are worth less.
• 8:18
  SPEAKER_00: It's a hidden tax on people who essentially own cash.
• 8:22
  SPEAKER_00: Now the winners are those who say own stocks.
• 8:27
  SPEAKER_00: Because yes, your stocks are priced in dollars.
• 8:29
  SPEAKER_00: So when the dollars go down in value, the stock prices in dollar terms rise.
• 8:34
  SPEAKER_00: Your real estate is worth more in dollar terms.
• 8:37
  SPEAKER_00: Your gold and silver surge to all-time highs, like we're seeing, and your assets go up while your dollar debt stays the same.
• 8:46
  SPEAKER_00: So it's also good for people with a lot of debt.
• 8:49
  SPEAKER_00: And this is why Ray Dagalio said if you depreciate the money, it makes everything look like it's going up.
• 8:55
  SPEAKER_00: So the market isn't booming because the economy is great, it's booming because the dollar is dying.
• 9:01
  SPEAKER_00: And Warren Buffett warned about this.
• 9:03
  SPEAKER_00: The natural cause of government is to make the currency worth less over time.
• 9:07
  SPEAKER_00: So right now, if you're in cash, all those low-yielding safe bonds, you're being impoverished.
• 9:14
  SPEAKER_00: And it's the plan.
• 9:15
  SPEAKER_00: If you're in the right assets, you're being enriched.
• 9:18
  SPEAKER_00: That is also the plan.
• 9:19
  SPEAKER_00: It is done by design.
• 9:21
  SPEAKER_00: And maybe you think it's incredibly unfair or whatever.
• 9:23
  SPEAKER_00: Politics don't really matter.
• 9:25
  SPEAKER_00: What matters is how much money you've got at the end of it, or how much money the money is worth.
• 9:31
  SPEAKER_00: Does that make any sense?
• 9:32
  SPEAKER_00: All right, so here's where it gets interesting.
• 9:34
  SPEAKER_00: When people say safe haven assets, most people think gold, government bonds, cash.
• 9:39
  SPEAKER_00: And these are the traditional playbook.
• 9:41
  SPEAKER_00: But we're in a new era, and there is a new asset class that combines, in my opinion, safety with growth.
• 9:49
  SPEAKER_00: Now, of course, all investments carry risk, and past performance isn't guarantee of future performance.
• 9:54
  SPEAKER_00: I'm not a financial advisor, I'm not registered for anything except, you know, with Winston.
• 9:59
  SPEAKER_00: But large cap US tech stocks with global revenue are extraordinary.
• 10:05
  SPEAKER_00: And by the way, I'm also a big fan of metals right now, especially gold.
• 10:10
  SPEAKER_00: Silver is going to be very volatile, but yeah, a lot of money to be made there, potentially.
• 10:14
  SPEAKER_00: But I do think there is something everybody's overlooking, and it is the big tech stock.
• 10:20
  SPEAKER_00: Why?
• 10:21
  SPEAKER_00: When the dollar weakens, companies like Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Google, well, they sell their products globally in foreign money.
• 10:30
  SPEAKER_00: So if they sell their product in a foreign currency, and when they convert those euros, yens, pounds, all the monkey currencies back into the mighty dollar, right?
• 10:40
  SPEAKER_00: They get more dollars for it.
• 10:41
  SPEAKER_00: So a weak dollar means bigger international sales.
• 10:45
  SPEAKER_00: So think about it this way Microsoft's cloud business, called Azure, uh, just hit 50 billion in quarterly revenue.
• 10:53
  SPEAKER_00: Much about some overseas, about 40 odd percent or so, almost half.
• 10:57
  SPEAKER_00: Nvidia's chips are sold globally.
• 10:59
  SPEAKER_00: So when the dollar falls 11%, their foreign revenue is worth 11% more.
• 11:06
  SPEAKER_00: So they get growth without doing anything at all.
• 11:09
  SPEAKER_00: And secondly, this is not the dot-com bubble.
• 11:13
  SPEAKER_00: And that's when I started investing.
• 11:15
  SPEAKER_00: That was speculation on future profits that nobody had thought about yet.
• 11:19
  SPEAKER_00: Those dot-com companies usually had no revenue and certainly no profits.
• 11:23
  SPEAKER_00: Today's tech giants are generating massive free cash flow right now.
• 11:28
  SPEAKER_00: Microsoft Azure is driving AI revenue explosions on a daily basis, and video is driving massive improvements in profits.
• 11:39
  SPEAKER_00: So the tech sector has just given us a record number of positive earnings guidance for the year.
• 11:46
  SPEAKER_00: So we're getting into the monetization phase of AI.
• 11:50
  SPEAKER_00: Yes, we've spent all the money on infrastructure and chips and technology, but companies are now making huge margins on AI services.
• 11:58
  SPEAKER_00: And that's what I said about a year ago.
• 12:00
  SPEAKER_00: I said software is the next step of AI.
• 12:05
  SPEAKER_00: And the beautiful thing is that these companies are not tied to any single government's policy.
• 12:10
  SPEAKER_00: They operate globally, they generate cash globally, they hold assets globally.
• 12:14
  SPEAKER_00: So when the US government devalues the dollar, Microsoft doesn't lose value, it actually gains value.
• 12:19
  SPEAKER_00: So it's like owning a business that operates in 50 currencies.
• 12:23
  SPEAKER_00: Your dollar exposure is limited.
• 12:26
  SPEAKER_00: And even if inflation really, really takes hold of the US and the world, well, Microsoft is just gonna put up their prices for their subscriptions.
• 12:34
  SPEAKER_00: You probably wouldn't even notice.
• 12:35
  SPEAKER_00: Companies are not gonna cancel their Windows license fees, right?
• 12:39
  SPEAKER_00: Because the company would stop.
• 12:40
  SPEAKER_00: They're not gonna cut off their cloud computing because everything will stop.
• 12:45
  SPEAKER_00: So they're just gonna pay more.
• 12:48
  SPEAKER_00: So these companies have pricing power.
• 12:51
  SPEAKER_00: The kind of pricing power that was reserved once for, you know, say a Coca-Cola who makes a nearly addictive beverage.
• 12:59
  SPEAKER_00: Um Pepsi, for example, raised during COVID, they raised their prices like 17% in a year.
• 13:04
  SPEAKER_00: Did they sell this?
• 13:05
  SPEAKER_00: No.
• 13:06
  SPEAKER_00: Why?
• 13:06
  SPEAKER_00: Because people are addicted to stuff.
• 13:08
  SPEAKER_00: I need my sugar, you know, whatever it is.
• 13:10
  SPEAKER_00: So when you have these very strong companies with products that once you sign up for them, well, you just need the pain of switching, it's just too great.
• 13:21
  SPEAKER_00: You're gonna pay whatever it is.
• 13:23
  SPEAKER_00: And the data proves it.
• 13:25
  SPEAKER_00: While the dollar is down last year, the Nasdaq, oh, this is silver.
• 13:31
  SPEAKER_00: Uh silver went up quite a bit too.
• 13:33
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, by the way, we should, we should, we should not fail to mention that.
• 13:37
  SPEAKER_00: But let me just measure here in uh Trade Vision how much that's gone up by 20 plus percent, right?
• 13:42
  SPEAKER_00: So it has done better than the loss of value of the dollar.
• 13:48
  SPEAKER_00: Dollar goes down 11%, and as that goes up 20%, right?
• 13:51
  SPEAKER_00: So we're still making more money than the dollar devaluation.
• 13:55
  SPEAKER_00: The silver thing is actually an interesting story, but let me show you gold for a second as well, which had a tremendous one.
• 14:02
  SPEAKER_00: But let me show you something even more interesting.
• 14:04
  SPEAKER_00: Because I was looking at this yesterday, I was doing a podcast, and what I was seeing is I was looking at the gold and silver dark pool trades, and you can look at this in trade vision.
• 14:16
  SPEAKER_00: I'll put a link down below into a trial, software we make.
• 14:19
  SPEAKER_00: And I can see trades that are hundreds of millions of dollars, and they place them every single day, not just one day.
• 14:29
  SPEAKER_00: The day before was the same story.
• 14:31
  SPEAKER_00: And these trades have pretty low probabilities of actually making money.
• 14:36
  SPEAKER_00: Go back another day.
• 14:37
  SPEAKER_00: Uh here you have some more 200 million, 100 million.
• 14:40
  SPEAKER_00: And look, they have like a 28%, 28%, 20% chance of making money.
• 14:45
  SPEAKER_00: So these are massive institutional, bullish trades on gold.
• 14:50
  SPEAKER_00: Now, on silver, the largest trade I can find is about$10 million, which is not a lot by Wall Street standards.
• 14:56
  SPEAKER_00: So it does show you where the money is flowing.
• 14:58
  SPEAKER_00: And I just thought I'd share that with you.
• 15:00
  SPEAKER_00: As you can obviously come to your own conclusion and rummage around the data on your own.
• 15:05
  SPEAKER_00: So, what's our strategy here?
• 15:07
  SPEAKER_00: Let's get specific.
• 15:09
  SPEAKER_00: What should you own?
• 15:10
  SPEAKER_00: What should you avoid in this dollar death spiral decline?
• 15:15
  SPEAKER_00: By the way, people are still gonna use the dollar, it's just gonna be worthless.
• 15:17
  SPEAKER_00: Well, large cap US tech stocks.
• 15:20
  SPEAKER_00: Think Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Amazon, Google.
• 15:24
  SPEAKER_00: So national revenue, they benefit from a weak dollar.
• 15:27
  SPEAKER_00: AI monetization is driving earnings, they have high free cash flow, and it gives you international exposure without having to rummage around the exotic stock exchanges of, you know, Delhi or uh Calcutta or Indonesia or somewhere.
• 15:41
  SPEAKER_00: I'm not judging those markets.
• 15:43
  SPEAKER_00: I just don't know anything about them, nor do you, I imagine.
• 15:46
  SPEAKER_00: And that's how I would get my international exposure.
• 15:48
  SPEAKER_00: So, no, I would not go to the apparatchniks in in Europe, um, you know, the socialist republics of France and Germany or any of those, and particularly hand for those stocks, unless you're into warmongering stocks, which has been a very good trade.
• 16:03
  SPEAKER_00: War is always very profitable and insanely immoral.
• 16:06
  SPEAKER_00: But with very few exceptions, most good companies are listed in the US.
• 16:10
  SPEAKER_00: There's a very simple reason for that.
• 16:12
  SPEAKER_00: If you're a brilliant business, you want to sell your business as the owner to the people who have the most money and you're going to pay you the most.
• 16:20
  SPEAKER_00: Where is that gonna happen?
• 16:21
  SPEAKER_00: Well, it's gonna happen in the biggest stock exchange in the world, where they're the biggest hedge funds, the biggest pension funds, the biggest privately owned banks in the world.
• 16:28
  SPEAKER_00: So where is that?
• 16:29
  SPEAKER_00: Well, that is a place called New York.
• 16:31
  SPEAKER_00: So everybody who's half decent lists there.
• 16:34
  SPEAKER_00: There are a few exceptions, but they're not that many.
• 16:36
  SPEAKER_00: So that's why I get my international exposure up.
• 16:39
  SPEAKER_00: Just don't bother with it, just buy the big tech stocks.
• 16:42
  SPEAKER_00: And uh the third part to it, and the second and the and the first, I appreciate, are basically the same.
• 16:47
  SPEAKER_00: Uh keep life simple, I always say, is precious metals.
• 16:51
  SPEAKER_00: And, you know, people talk about allocation, some people say 5%, some people say 25%, some people say 125%, don't leverage.
• 16:59
  SPEAKER_00: Uh far too risky.
• 17:01
  SPEAKER_00: But real assets are something that you can't print.
• 17:05
  SPEAKER_00: So precious metals, you can't print gold as a central bank.
• 17:09
  SPEAKER_00: You also can't print Microsoft shares.
• 17:12
  SPEAKER_00: In fact, the exact opposite is happening.
• 17:14
  SPEAKER_00: The number of shares of a company like Microsoft, here's a chart for it, it declines.
• 17:19
  SPEAKER_00: So they used to have 8.5 billion shares outstanding in 2012, and now it's 7.5 billion, and it's less every single quarter.
• 17:28
  SPEAKER_00: How does that happen?
• 17:29
  SPEAKER_00: They basically take shares and they put them in the shredder.
• 17:32
  SPEAKER_00: So companies buy their own stock.
• 17:35
  SPEAKER_00: Why do they do that?
• 17:36
  SPEAKER_00: It helps to pump the stock price.
• 17:38
  SPEAKER_00: Because their management is paid in share options, and those share options are worth a heck of a lot more if the stock price gets pumped.
• 17:44
  SPEAKER_00: So this is what these companies do.
• 17:46
  SPEAKER_00: They keep doing exactly that.
• 17:47
  SPEAKER_00: And you'll see the same story with every with every uh major tech stock out there, like Amazon here, for example, does the opposite.
• 17:57
  SPEAKER_00: Okay, I'm surprised by that because they do do major share buybacks, but I guess they must be handing out a heck of a lot of share options.
• 18:03
  SPEAKER_00: Let's look at some of the other ones then.
• 18:05
  SPEAKER_00: Uh let's look at here, Nvidia, for example.
• 18:08
  SPEAKER_00: Again, they had 25, 26 billion shares, now it's 24 billion shares.
• 18:12
  SPEAKER_00: So there's a constant erosion of shares over time, and that makes it a scarce asset, a little bit like what the Bitcoin lots tell you.
• 18:22
  SPEAKER_00: So digger, the Bitcoin lot go nuts in the comments down below.
• 18:25
  SPEAKER_00: So what do we want to avoid?
• 18:27
  SPEAKER_00: Well, anything with fixed returns in dollars.
• 18:31
  SPEAKER_00: So you ever buy a long-term bond that pays you 4.5% for the next 30 years, run! Right?
• 18:37
  SPEAKER_00: If you were one of the Muppets who bought the Austrian 100-year bond that paid you, I think, 0.5% or 1%, uh, you deserve your head examined.
• 18:48
  SPEAKER_00: And if you're sitting on cash because you think the market's too high and you don't know whether it's right to buy yet, I'm gonna wait for the next crash.
• 18:55
  SPEAKER_00: Well, you're losing 11% per year guaranteed.
• 18:59
  SPEAKER_00: So think about that.
• 19:00
  SPEAKER_00: And really speculative stocks with no fundamentals.
• 19:03
  SPEAKER_00: I actually think they're going to have a good run in this year because we're gonna see so much money printing, we're gonna see interest rates come down very significantly.
• 19:11
  SPEAKER_00: So I think speculation is gonna be great, but in the long run, it doesn't help you.
• 19:15
  SPEAKER_00: So it's one of those things where you need a firm exit rule.
• 19:17
  SPEAKER_00: And again, check out the mini masterclass I recorded for you so you're a little bit better informed on that one.
• 19:23
  SPEAKER_00: So, what can a portfolio look like?
• 19:25
  SPEAKER_00: Quality stocks.
• 19:26
  SPEAKER_00: That's where I put the majority of my money.
• 19:29
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, international, I allowed that into that.
• 19:31
  SPEAKER_00: So for me, that's most of it.
• 19:32
  SPEAKER_00: Quality stocks, I also take about half of my money, maybe a little bit less.
• 19:36
  SPEAKER_00: I trade that more actively.
• 19:38
  SPEAKER_00: Um, what do I look for in quality stocks?
• 19:40
  SPEAKER_00: In uh in our um community, in the in the the paid part of it, this is this is the$27 a month paid parts.
• 19:49
  SPEAKER_00: It's intentionally very, very affordable.
• 19:51
  SPEAKER_00: You get research reports and also access to this little tool here.
• 19:55
  SPEAKER_00: Um and these are the things I look at.
• 19:57
  SPEAKER_00: So I look for margins.
• 20:00
  SPEAKER_00: That are ideally 60% or above.
• 20:02
  SPEAKER_00: I look for return on invested capital.
• 20:05
  SPEAKER_00: That's at least what I want as a return.
• 20:07
  SPEAKER_00: So at the very least, it has to be in line with the dollar valuation.
• 20:10
  SPEAKER_00: Free cash flow margins, think about that.
• 20:12
  SPEAKER_00: You want a positive interest coverage ratio.
• 20:15
  SPEAKER_00: PE ratios, I'm not that bothered about, but you know, you can obviously play around with that.
• 20:19
  SPEAKER_00: But yeah, say if you want to ramp this up to a little bit more impressive numbers, it then gives you a pretty short list.
• 20:25
  SPEAKER_00: This is out of 5,000 stocks.
• 20:27
  SPEAKER_00: Now you've only got 78 left that actually have solid data.
• 20:31
  SPEAKER_00: We also have a little preset for that.
• 20:33
  SPEAKER_00: You click on high quality and it'll give you here some stocks.
• 20:36
  SPEAKER_00: Again, I'm not telling you to buy them.
• 20:37
  SPEAKER_00: This isn't financial advice, but it's a good place to kind of start.
• 20:40
  SPEAKER_00: And then you can look at any of these and you go, oh, okay, I didn't realize that Intuit fits that bracket.
• 20:47
  SPEAKER_00: Let me let me click on that.
• 20:48
  SPEAKER_00: And you hit analyze, and it gives you a nice little breakdown of what that company does.
• 20:54
  SPEAKER_00: And that's just one of the little tools that we we give you access to to just make better decisions.
• 20:58
  SPEAKER_00: So you could also put your portfolio into that and a lot of other things.
• 21:03
  SPEAKER_00: So that's kind of the way I look at that.
• 21:04
  SPEAKER_00: And again, precious metals, commodities, the percentage really depends on how you feel about the world.
• 21:10
  SPEAKER_00: I think the more uh fearful, fearful and worried that put more into it.
• 21:15
  SPEAKER_00: I think the wealthy would put more into it because they don't need it to be so liquid, whereas stocks obviously are very nice and liquid.
• 21:22
  SPEAKER_00: And then if we look a little bit at the timeline here, look, the dollar is gonna bounce around a little bit because Trump's a volatile chap.
• 21:30
  SPEAKER_00: Um you're gonna get market pullbugs, 5, 10%, stock market 10, 20, 30% are completely normal.
• 21:36
  SPEAKER_00: They're part of the system, they're a feature, not a bug.
• 21:39
  SPEAKER_00: But as long as tech earnings remain strong, as long as we're seeing them make more and more money out of AI, you're gonna see more job losses.
• 21:46
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, Amazon has announced some more.
• 21:48
  SPEAKER_00: Things are looking good, except for the people who lost their jobs.
• 21:52
  SPEAKER_00: Uh medium term, one to three years, the dollar decline continues, and people are gonna start to notice it around year three because they're like, wow, this is all everything feels a lot more expensive.
• 22:02
  SPEAKER_00: Inflation will remain elevated.
• 22:04
  SPEAKER_00: Officially, it'll be two, three, four, five percent, and that'll be good for you, apparently.
• 22:08
  SPEAKER_00: Unofficially, it'll be 10, 20, 30 percent a yeah.
• 22:13
  SPEAKER_00: Massive inflation that isn't measured.
• 22:17
  SPEAKER_00: So this is why I want to be in hard assets, and I do include the high-quality stocks and hard assets.
• 22:23
  SPEAKER_00: And then in the longer term, yeah, we might end up with a new monetary system.
• 22:27
  SPEAKER_00: Um, cash's gonna disappear, it'll be some sort of stable coin government-backed type thing, which will be weird and they can tax you whenever they feel like it and control you and all that kind of stuff, which is another reason people like to earn metals.
• 22:39
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, that's coming, and whether that's gonna be JP Morgan's or the US government's, you know, well, we'll we'll wait and see.
• 22:45
  SPEAKER_00: But those who are in assets will not just survive, they will actually create generational wealth.
• 22:50
  SPEAKER_00: People who invested in 71 into hard assets are living on, you know, triplex apartments in Fifth Avenue today and overlooking the, you know, park and park lane and that kind of thing.
• 23:04
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, and and and having a brilliant life and are wondering, you know, the biggest problem is shall we go to the house in Nentacket or to the one in um, you know, Bahamas or something?
• 23:12
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, and and and which jet should we take?
• 23:14
  SPEAKER_00: Because mummy flew out on the one that I wanted.
• 23:17
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, and and that's kind of, I think, where we are.
• 23:19
  SPEAKER_00: I honestly think this is a beautiful, amazing opportunity for those who are informed.
• 23:25
  SPEAKER_00: And it is the most horrid and unfair thing for those who are not, and also for those who don't have the ability to put a significant amount of money into assets.
• 23:36
  SPEAKER_00: So if it was me, I would focus on getting as much of my cash and income into hard assets as humanly possible.
• 23:45
  SPEAKER_00: I'd spend the next couple of weeks and months studying and learning and getting confident and getting systems and maybe getting yourself a mentor and that kind of thing, and build out a strategy that doesn't just get me to pay my bill by next bills by next month or by the end of the year or reduce my debt or something, but how do I actually think in decades and generations about how to generate this wealth?
• 24:10
  SPEAKER_00: And how do I share that with the people who come after me?
• 24:13
  SPEAKER_00: So, in the long term, I think the trend is very clear.
• 24:16
  SPEAKER_00: Assets will go up, dollar and currencies will continue to go down.
• 24:21
  SPEAKER_00: Think about it 87% loss of the dollar just since the 1970s.
• 24:26
  SPEAKER_00: This time they're gonna do it faster.
• 24:29
  SPEAKER_00: So please, please, please stay invested, make an action plan, audit what you own, reallocate.
• 24:39
  SPEAKER_00: I'm not giving you advice, I'm just giving you some thought processes here, and then track what's going on out there.
• 24:46
  SPEAKER_00: Keep an eye on the politics.
• 24:48
  SPEAKER_00: It could change, but it's very unlikely because how do you get out of a problem with 38, 40 billion trillion dollars of debt?
• 24:55
  SPEAKER_00: You make it worth less by printing more money.
• 25:00
  SPEAKER_00: It's not complicated, it die requires discipline, which is why I admire Buffett so much, because he's happy to be unpopular and seen to be an idiot for years at a time, and just smiles confidently to himself.
• 25:13
  SPEAKER_00: And that's a skill I think we should all aim for.
• 25:15
  SPEAKER_00: So you're gonna decide who you want to be, which side of this you're gonna want to be on.
• 25:20
  SPEAKER_00: The ones who are gonna be emotional will get slaughtered.
• 25:25
  SPEAKER_00: The ones who understand this now, at least starting to understand this now and will dig deeper, will wait.
• 25:33
  SPEAKER_00: That's my humble opinion.
• 25:34
  SPEAKER_00: If you got some value out of this, please share it with somebody who might also get some value out of it so that their golden retrievers can be as uh exhausted from hiking as that chap back there.
• 25:44
  SPEAKER_00: And I wish you a beautiful future.