Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 56 - 6/14/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 56 - 6/14/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:19
Hello and welcome to episode 56 of the All Systems Go sports
0:25
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:28
I'm your host Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
0:35
Happy Friday. Our work week is coming to an
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end. The weekend is upon us and we
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got a lot to get to on today's podcast.
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We got a little bit of everything today, guys.
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We have possibly the last game of the NBA season to the
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Celtics. Hang banner 18, finish off the
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maps tonight. Well, guess what?
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I have a play on Mavericks and Celtics game four.
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Also another big day here on the diamond for MLBI have 5.
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And to be honest with you guys, I could have had maybe six or
1:00
seven bets. I really like the board for
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Major League Baseball here tonight, but I tried to whittle
1:04
it down to the ones I thought were the sharpest plays of the
1:07
day. So A5 pack here across Major
1:09
League Baseball. And then don't forget it's a
1:12
Friday, so that means we got UFC this weekend, a little bit of
1:15
biting in the arena. So we got UFC Fight Night Perez
1:19
versus Tiara and I have a play here basically in the second
1:23
match or the the Co main event that I noticed a huge sharp line
1:28
move dog to fave, as well as a great bet split and also a
1:31
little cherry on top, a big youth advantage.
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One fighter is much younger and he's taking in the sharp action.
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So I'll tell you who that is here on episode 56 of the all
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systems go pod on a big Friday presented by rhythm as we steam
1:44
into the weekend. Now looking back toward
1:46
yesterday, guys pretty much awash did have another under
1:49
that came through for us. So I like the fact that we're
1:51
dabbling in some totals here with MLB.
1:53
The Tampa Bay Chicago Cubs under 7 1/2 came through as that was a
1:57
low scoring game that stayed under the number.
1:59
Love to see it. Snakes absolutely got just red
2:03
hot with the bats and dropped a couple bombs.
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Snakes blew out last night here against even forget the
2:11
opponents, the LA Angels, but 11 to one win.
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Finally Brandon Fodd. Where's my guy Daruche?
2:15
We finally won a Brandon Fod starts.
2:17
That was nice and then had a nice little surprise there with
2:20
the New York Mets. The Mets look like they're going
2:22
to lose to the lowly Marlins. And then bottom of the ninth
2:25
inning, down 2 to one, couple guys get on score run to tie it
2:30
and then score run to win it. Thanks to JD Martinez going oppo
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a walk off home run to catch the Mets, which was nice.
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Now losers last night, Edmonton Oilers, they just gave us a
2:42
thought that maybe hey, they'll come back and win.
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They were down 4 to one. I said, hey, this might be over.
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Then they make it 4:00 to 2:00. Then they make it four to three.
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Of course, they can't score that final goal.
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They lose four to three. So the Oilers couldn't come
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through for us despite all those great system matches on chalk
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favorites in the NHL finals. And then the frustrating one
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too, was the dream. And WNBAI feel like I'm snake
3:02
bit when it comes to WNBA. I'm not giving up on WNBA, but I
3:06
feel like, hey, we're doing pretty well in baseball, like 3
3:08
and O baseball last night. What am I doing?
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Given a unit away for WNBA but still want to diversify our
3:15
portfolio, be able to bet different sports.
3:17
Just a tough one last night because the Dream had a good
3:19
sharp line move -2 up to -2 1/2 -. 3 had a good rhythm
3:24
projection there. Unfortunately, the Dream lose
3:25
out, lose outright to the worst team in the WNBA.
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Even with Caitlin Clark, I think she only scored seven points,
3:31
but either way, that was a tough one there.
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So three and two overall, but minus 0.3 units.
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So literally basically a wash here.
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So too, we can have a winning day on a big Friday as we steam
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into a big weekend. So I want to start off with
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today's podcast talking some NBA because this could be the last
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game of the NBA regular season and I'm thinking that it will be
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the last game of the regular season.
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My play for tonight. You're going to call me a homa.
3:57
Yeah, you're Josh, you're a homa.
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You're going to bet the Celtics? Yeah, they're the public play.
4:01
What are you doing? Are you going to get your dunks
4:02
coffee and go go sweat the Celtics?
4:05
Yes, I am. I'm going Celtics tonight.
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Now, it's not a completely public play.
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It does have a majority of bets here, 68% of bets, 70% of money
4:14
at DraftKings here is coming in on Boston.
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But I'm going to tell you why I'm going to play the Celtics to
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finish it off tonight. One is that this line has moved
4:21
a little bit toward Boston. A lot of these books opened
4:23
around a pick em or Dallas Mavericks -1 a lot of those
4:27
minus ones are now down to a pick em.
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And some of those pickums are now flipping to Celtics -1 so
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this is a great opportunity to shop around.
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I see some books at a Pickum. I see some books Celtics -1 I
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see a couple books Mavericks -1 So no matter who you like
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tonight, shop around. Try to get the best of the
4:44
number, especially when it comes to a money line here.
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Like regardless of which side you like, I'll go money line.
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If you tell me like Dallas, I'm not going to lay a -, 1 when I
4:52
can go money line. If you tell me like Celtics, I'm
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not going to lay a - 1. We can go money line.
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One point game. You want to cash your bet, So
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I'm going to go money line here. I got Boston at -110 little bit
5:02
of line movement toward Boston. Boston has been unbelievable.
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You don't need me to tell you this.
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There's they're fifteen and two straight up in the NBA playoffs
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here this season. 15% ROI, 88% win percentage.
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Now, we do have to admit the referees tonight, we do have the
5:18
extender Scott Foster. Now he is known as the guy who
5:21
gets in there to extend the series and whoever's facing
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elimination, typically they win. Again, there is some validity
5:27
behind that. But I'll take it a step back and
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say Scott Foster, James Williams, David Guthrie, the
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three refs for tonight, they are all Rd. referees.
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They're all between 51 and 54% against the spread historically
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to the road team. So again, don't love the
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extender with Foster. Hope it's not extended.
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Hope it ends here tonight. But all three are Rd. refs.
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And then I'm going to put a little stock into two other
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things. I'll give you the main reason
5:53
here in a second, but one little angle I can tell you if just
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from being a Celtics fan my whole life, born and raised
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Massachusetts. I grew up on the western side of
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the state in the small area called the Berkshires moved to
6:04
Boston after college. I've been here pretty much ever
6:06
since, but my dad always tell stories of I was sitting on his
6:09
lap watching Larry Bird. Now I don't remember that I was
6:11
born in 1987, but he claims it's true and I believe him.
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But lifelong Celtics fan, but in particular, you know, O 8 for me
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was as good as it gets. Pierce, Garnett, Ray Allen,
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obviously, ironically enough, and This is why I think planets
6:25
are aligning. I studied abroad in Namibia,
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Africa on a Wildlife Conservation program with Save
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the Rhino Trust in 2008. And when I got back, the Celtics
6:34
were in the finals. I got back in early June.
6:37
They're in the finals against the Lakers.
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Ironically enough, I just got back from Africa for the second
6:41
time in my life from Kenya. Don't you know it?
6:44
Celtics are also in the finals. So I feel like the planets are
6:46
aligning here, but not just that, you know, coincidence,
6:49
whether it's, you know, fate or, or it's a sign, who knows?
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But I would say, you know, having listened to this team,
6:57
especially Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, this whole group, I think
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this team has learned something. Now, it hasn't been an easy
7:03
ride. Remember a couple years ago
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against Golden State, they're up in the series, could have won
7:08
that series, imploded, lost. They were down O3 to Miami,
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almost came back and lost. This team is basically, it's
7:15
taken a while to get to this point.
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So it feels like a culmination of years and years.
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And again, this is I, I believe Tatum's 7th year, Brown's 8th
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year. So this has been a long time
7:25
coming here. And one quote that I heard from
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Jaylen Brown after the game and just this team seems different
7:30
to me. They seem focused.
7:32
They seem like they've learned from their struggles in the
7:34
past. And one of their struggles has
7:36
been, you know, not, you know, stomping on the neck of the
7:39
opponent when you can put them away, giving him a game saying,
7:41
oh, no big deal, we'll get the next one.
7:43
No, you need to win it and, and, and put your opponent down when
7:46
you can. But there's a quote from Jaylen
7:47
Brown after the last game. He said it's time to graduate.
7:50
So that really spoke to me because I think what Jaylen
7:53
Brown is getting at is, you know, they've been 7-8 years
7:57
together going through, you know, elementary school, middle
7:59
school, high school. I think they've learned from
8:01
their mistakes. This feels like a team of
8:03
destiny and the line's moving a little bit toward Boston.
8:06
I think it's time for this team to graduate.
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I think they win tonight. The line is moving a little bit
8:10
in their favor. Now if you tell me, Josh, what
8:12
are you doing taking the Celtics?
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They're getting 68% of bets. I don't like that.
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Fully admit I do not like being on the side of the public.
8:20
What I'm hoping for is we see this line close Boston -1 like I
8:23
want to see some late movement toward the Celtics here and if
8:27
it wasn't enough, little bit of line movement, you know, Celtics
8:30
fantastic in the post season Rd. refs.
8:33
Just kind of the intangibles of thinking this team is ready to
8:35
finally hoist Banner 18. I'll give you one last angle.
8:39
Rhythm. That's right, our friends at
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Rhythm who do a fantastic job of powering this podcast rhythm
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with their AI backed data-driven picks and props.
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They have a projection for this game and you know what their
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projection is? Their projection is Celtics win
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the game one O 7.9 to one O 5.8. So basically you win by 2.1
8:59
points. Recommended bet there is to take
9:02
the money line. So this is a rhythm back model
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that is telling us to take Boston and not only is are the
9:08
Celtics, you know, have a rhythm projection advantage here.
9:12
Advantage would be an edge over the sports books by definition,
9:16
the refs, everything we mentioned here.
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But it's a value play to me. Like if I were to bet Dallas or
9:22
layoff the Celtics tonight and they win, that's something that
9:24
I I don't know if I can sleep tonight.
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If I pass that up, if I bet Celtics and they lose tonight,
9:29
Hey, it is what it is. But from watching these teams
9:32
play, Celtics are humming right now.
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I think it's time to graduate and The Mavericks, I feel like
9:37
they've kind of given the Celtics their best shot and it's
9:39
almost a fait accompli here, especially with Doncic, you
9:42
know, being at being out of shape and committing bad fouls.
9:45
So you add it all up here, guys. I'll be honest, if I didn't have
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this rhythm recommended bet I I don't know if I'd like it as
9:53
much because it does worry me a little bit that it's the public
9:56
bet. It's the obvious bet.
9:57
Just take the good team playing well.
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But because rhythm also is backing us up with their
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data-driven AI backed model, that's giving me kind of that
10:05
that little cherry on top that that last final, you know, straw
10:09
that breaks the camel's back to make me bet Boston here.
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So at all up here guys, I'm hoping this is the last game of
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the NBA regular season. I'm going Boston Celtics to win
10:18
banner 18 on the money line. I got the Celts at -110.
10:23
Now let's go over to some Major League Baseball.
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We got a lot of MLB sweats here for today.
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I'm excited to have a big card with you guys here for tonight.
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So first one on the board, 6:45 PM Eastern Time, Miami Marlins
10:36
and the Washington Nationals pitching match up Here we have
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Sean Anderson, a journeyman 29 year old right-hander going for
10:42
Miami. He's O&O 5.4 OERA.
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He'll be opposed by Mackenzie Gore, lefty.
10:48
Remember they picked him up in the, it was the Juan Soto trade
10:52
back in the day, that big package with CJ Abrams that they
10:54
got from the pods. But Mackenzie Gore five and
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five, 3.44 ERA. But I've seen a big move here in
11:00
favor of the Nats. I'm going nationals here
11:03
tonight, guys. Nationals open this game as low
11:05
as around -160 -, 165 on the money line.
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Now they're up to -175 -, 180. So a big, big steam move, an
11:14
overload of sharp action across the marketplace hammering
11:17
Washington, telling us smart money has come in on the
11:19
nationals. Now the Nationals are getting
11:21
89% of money line bets, 93% of money line dollars.
11:25
So it is a public play, but also a little bit low bets, higher
11:28
dollars with a big line move in their favor.
11:31
Some good system matches on Miami or sorry, on Washington
11:34
here. One would be a system that I
11:36
came up with a few days ago, but both teams are below 500.
11:40
Take the favorite. Very simple, but it's 135 and
11:43
8960% this year with a 2% ROI. Again, this is kind of a lesser
11:49
of two evils. Play 22 bad teams, you know,
11:51
take the less bad team. Take the favorite.
11:53
The team was expected to win. Also, we have seen this this
11:57
total drop at some shops. There's some 8 1/2's down to 8
12:00
that would match our correlative betting favorite play.
12:03
Not just a correlative betting favorite low total, but also
12:06
when the total falls, at least half run, take the favorite.
12:09
Very simple. But that's two O 6 and one 4060%
12:12
this season with about a 1% ROI. Lastly, nationals are four and O
12:17
head to head against Miami this year.
12:18
They've had their number and in particular Washington or sorry,
12:22
Miami. Going up against southpaws,
12:25
they've really struggled. So going up against Mackenzie
12:27
Gore tonight, Miami is only hitting 224 against lefties.
12:30
That's 26th in Major League Baseball.
12:33
So big sharp steam move. We have a team that's really
12:36
only the other team four and O nationals are this year against
12:40
Miami. Hopefully pitching advantage,
12:42
system match advantage. Miami doesn't hit lefties.
12:45
I'm going Washington here guys, shop round.
12:47
I got the Nats at -180 keep on cruising.
12:52
We're getting a good number on a team we love to sweat tonight.
12:55
Baltimore Orioles, baby, show me your O face.
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Let's go Orioles. Orioles are at home against
13:00
Philadelphia. Pretty good pitching match up
13:02
here tonight. Ranger Suarez 10 and one 1.81
13:05
ERA. He's been great.
13:06
Kyle Bradish also has been pretty good.
13:08
He was injured early but he's now two and O with a 2.62 ERA.
13:13
First thing I noticed about this game is it's a very cheap price
13:16
on Baltimore as a short home favorite and the line has moved
13:18
toward Baltimore, so that's why I like the OS tonight.
13:21
Baltimore open this game. Some shops as low as -120 now
13:25
Baltimore's up to -130 I see some books even -135.
13:29
So it's always notable to me that as soon as line opens,
13:32
which direction does it get hidden in?
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Which direction does it move in? And also, is there a basically a
13:37
a stopgap point where it stops and comes back or is it just
13:41
consistently in One Direction? This one's consistently in favor
13:44
of Baltimore. Baltimore would be a favorite
13:47
low total correlative betting play.
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They're -130 total of this one is 7.
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Excuse me, 7. Also interleague favorite, a
13:56
lack of familiarity benefiting the better team.
13:58
Also good system match I have here would be a winning team
14:01
who's favored off a loss. Baltimore loss yesterday to
14:05
Atlanta. Winning team so above 500 record
14:08
favored after a loss. Those teams are 125 and 80 this
14:12
year, 60%. Also, Baltimore is one of the
14:15
best chalk teams in Major League Baseball.
14:17
The Orioles are actually the third best overall.
14:19
They're 38 and 19 as a favorite. The other best favorite teams
14:24
would be the Yankees, the Guardians and the Phillies.
14:26
But again, that basically tells me that, hey, when Baltimore is
14:29
favored to win, they typically come through.
14:31
We do have that favorite with the total that falls as well
14:34
because this total was eight. There's a lot of smart money on
14:36
the under 8. Now it's all the way down to
14:38
seven. So kind of missed the boat
14:39
there. But lastly, I know Ranger Suarez
14:42
is a good pitcher, but Baltimore does well against lefties.
14:45
Baltimore is hitting 264 against left-handed pitchers this year.
14:48
That is number six or sixth best and Major League Baseball.
14:52
So let's go Baltimore. I'm on the O's at -130 keep on
14:58
cruising Cincinnati and Milwaukee.
15:00
I'm going right back to the well with the Milwaukee Brew Crew.
15:03
Give me the Brewers. Got the Brewers here a little
15:05
bit earlier today around -145 I love the fact that this line's
15:09
ticking up. Not great news if you haven't
15:11
bet it yet, but good news that it keeps getting hit.
15:14
So Milwaukee's now up to like -150 -, 155.
15:18
But anyway, pitching match up here for tonight, we have Hunter
15:21
Green going for the Reds, four and two, 3.61 ERA.
15:25
Brewers, meanwhile, are going with Freddy Peralta, who is four
15:29
and three with a 3.95 ERA. Big move here is toward
15:33
Milwaukee. That was the first thing that
15:34
jumped out to me on Milwaukee. They open as low as -135 I wrote
15:39
about Milwaukee in the Sharp report for vc.com earlier today.
15:42
You can always check that out around noon time.
15:43
It'll come out. But they're -135 up to -145
15:47
again now they're as high as -155 S consistent movement in
15:51
favor of the Brew Crew. Brewers are getting around 70%
15:55
of bets in dollars. So kind of a combination here of
15:58
both public and sharp support. I'm really going to bank on
16:00
Milwaukee's offense. They're hitting 256 on the year.
16:03
They've scored 331 runs. Cincinnati's hitting 226.
16:07
They've only scored 295 runs. Milwaukee also has just a match
16:12
that I love here. Both teams had the day off the
16:15
previous day. Take the favorite, very, very
16:17
simple. But it's 55 and 39 this year,
16:20
59% since 2020 it's 494 and three O 262% with a nearly 3%
16:27
ROI. So it also match on Milwaukee.
16:29
We also have a correlative favorite low.
16:31
Total Milwaukee now favored around -150 - 155.
16:35
Total is 7 1/2 and home Rd. splits favor Milwaukee.
16:39
So let's make some beer tonight. The Brewers are 20 and 11 at
16:42
home. The Reds are 15 and 16 on the
16:44
road, but this is one of those games early this morning where
16:47
boom, I noticed the big steam move.
16:49
It hasn't let up. It's continued in favor of
16:51
Milwaukee. I'm going Milwaukee guys.
16:53
I got them at -145 Now you're looking at around -155 next one.
16:59
If this is what I call an ain't broke, don't fix it play, who
17:01
wants to go right back to the desert and sweat the snakes with
17:04
me? I'm going Arizona once again
17:06
here for tonight. Big steam move here.
17:09
So last night, obviously Arizona came through that big win.
17:13
Chicago White Sox had, I don't know if anyone noticed that, but
17:16
there's a pitching change. The line fell huge away from
17:19
Seattle. Seattle was like -175 all the
17:22
way down to like -115 White Sox actually won that game.
17:26
Garrett Crochet had a really good start.
17:28
But anyway, now the White Sox are going to Arizona pitching
17:32
match up here for tonight. We have Chris Flexen.
17:34
I remember he was on Seattle I believe last year.
17:36
He's two and five, five point O 6 ERA.
17:39
He'll be opposed by Ryan Nelson, who's three and three and five
17:42
with a 5.96 CRA. But this one here, why I like
17:46
the snakes. Huge steam move, massive
17:49
adjustment in favor of Arizona. This game actually opened
17:52
Arizona as low as -160 -, 170 when I wrote about this one for
17:57
vesan.com, I bet the Arizona D backs at -185.
18:03
Now they're close to -200. So again, we just talked
18:06
Milwaukee. Big move, no let up.
18:08
Massive adjustment here toward Arizona.
18:10
No let up whatsoever. So if you're playing it now, you
18:13
know, try to shop around, find them maybe -195 -, 197, anything
18:17
you can below -200 but again, some shops are now up to -200 I
18:23
see a -, 2 O 5 even. So on the one hand, good sign.
18:26
Continue movement toward Arizona.
18:28
Not great if you haven't betted yet as you kind of have missed a
18:30
better price. But I'm going to still ride
18:32
Arizona, risking one unit to try to get a half unit here.
18:36
Diamondbacks getting around 85% of money line bets in dollars
18:40
again, quote UN quote public, but also big money from
18:43
respected wise guys in the form of that steam move.
18:45
One system match that I love home interleague favorites off a
18:48
win. Arizona would match this 155 and
18:51
3760 percent, 2% ROI. Same match that was on the
18:57
nationals earlier. 2 sub 500 teams take the favorite also
19:01
60%. Arizona going to bank on their
19:03
offense. They're hitting two 49329 runs
19:07
scored. Chicago's only hitting 217 with
19:10
214 runs scored. Chicago, by the way, is the
19:13
worst team on the road this year.
19:15
How to win last night, but they're only 6 and 29 on the
19:18
road. Worse than in MLB and fading
19:20
Chicago. We had operation Fade Corbin the
19:23
other day. If you read the Sharp report,
19:25
that was an earlier play before the pod.
19:28
But Chicago is now a fading of Chicago is now 52 and 1874% with
19:34
a 13% ROI. So again, hopefully you jumped
19:37
on this one maybe a little bit earlier, but I got Arizona on
19:40
-185 now you're looking Arizona close to -200 last bet of the
19:45
night, San Francisco G men, let's go G men.
19:50
I'm on the Giants here, guys. Giants at home against the
19:53
Angels, opener of a interleague series here.
19:56
Now this one's interesting because we know the pitcher for
19:59
for the Angels, Tyler Anderson, he's five and six, 2.63 ERA.
20:03
He has been good this year. We don't know the starter for
20:06
San Francisco. So I was I was looking I.
20:08
I saw a couple names that they could go with probably going to
20:11
be an opener. So right now it's it's TBD.
20:15
So we don't know exactly who the pitcher is for San Fran.
20:18
Now you may have heard me say this on the pod before.
20:20
Action versus listed pitcher. 99 times out of 100 you want to go
20:24
listed pitcher because if a guy gets scratched, you don't want
20:27
to get locked into a bet. You want to spend your time
20:29
capping a game based upon who you think is going to start.
20:32
If it's a surprise, it could screw up your bet.
20:35
It gives you that freedom with listed pitcher that if a guy
20:37
gets scratched, you can just bet it again if you like it.
20:40
This is one where I'm going to go action because I want to bet
20:43
San Francisco no matter who starts tonight.
20:45
And I'll tell you why. The fact that we don't know who
20:48
San Francisco starter is, that's true.
20:51
But yet the line keeps going towards San Francisco.
20:53
So books that have this game available, you saw a lot of
20:56
openers here around -130 -, 135. Now you have San Francisco up to
21:01
-140 -, 145. So if we don't know who the
21:04
starter is, why is line continuing to go to San Fran?
21:08
That kind of tells me that again, no matter who starts this
21:11
is this is an advantage here to play San Francisco now rest
21:16
first tired advantage is huge because San Francisco was off
21:19
yesterday, whereas the angels are second leg of a back-to-back
21:23
after after they played the snakes.
21:25
So I like that angle. If you're a favorite off a day
21:27
off versus a team on the second leg of back-to-back.
21:29
A big sample size here, 346 and two, 3360% all the way since
21:34
2018. Also have a couple system
21:38
matches here, both below 500. Take the favorite.
21:41
We talked about that one earlier today.
21:42
That's 60% home interleague favorite off a win.
21:46
That's also 60%. And then also we have the
21:48
correlative favorite. Low total total on this one is
21:51
8. Now some shops are hinting 8
21:53
1/2, but mostly eights here. Home Rd. splits.
21:56
San Fran is 19 and 15 at home. LA is 15 and 19 on the road.
22:01
And then last little angle here, San Fran against lefties,
22:04
they're hitting 261. That's the 8th best average
22:07
against left-handed pitchers facing Anderson tonight.
22:10
So even though we don't know for sure who the starter is for San
22:12
Fran, I'm going to go action here.
22:14
That means we're locked into the pic no matter who starts or gets
22:17
scratched. I'm on San Francisco action at
22:20
-145 S A5 pack here tonight. Can we get three or more
22:25
Washington Nationals, Baltimore Orioles, Milwaukee brew crew,
22:28
Arizona snakes and the San Francisco G men?
22:31
G men last bet of the day or it's actually not even for
22:36
today. It's the last bet on today's
22:37
pod, but it's for tomorrow and you know what it is I know you
22:40
look forward to every Friday when we talk about UFC biting in
22:45
the arena got some big UFC for this weekend Fight Night Perez
22:50
versus tiara and I have a bet here on the UFC Fight Night
22:55
bantamweight Co main event. So the Co main event is between
22:59
miles Johns and Douglas Silva Deandrad.
23:03
Now first thing I noticed about this one.
23:06
I get my fresh batch of data I mentioned on the at the end of
23:08
pod yesterday around 9:00 AM Eastern Time every Friday, my
23:11
buddy John Ewing gives me that e-mail, which I love to see,
23:14
which gives me the splits for the UFC that upcoming weekend.
23:18
I got that e-mail. I'm looking through all the
23:19
different fighters and what I do actually or biters I should say.
23:23
But what I do is once I get that e-mail, I kind of like scroll
23:26
over and I, I don't even look at the names because I don't want
23:29
to have like any bias come in. If I see a fighter, maybe I bet
23:33
him or her before and won or lost.
23:35
I just don't want any bias to seep in.
23:36
So I, I basically cover up the names and then I go straight to
23:40
the bet splits. And what I'm looking for is a
23:42
big discrepancy between bets and dollars.
23:44
So low amount of bets, higher amount of dollars.
23:47
Once I identify a, a fighter with that, then I'll look at the
23:50
line movement. I want the line to move in favor
23:52
of that biter who's getting a low bets, higher dollars.
23:56
And then I'll look at the names, figure out who the matches on
23:58
and then I'll do a little bit more digging.
24:00
So who I landed on was Miles Johns baby.
24:05
That's right. Going Miles Johns on the money
24:07
line to win this fight. Couple things that jumped out to
24:10
me with Miles Johns. Number one is a great line move
24:13
in favor of Miles Johns. He actually opened as a
24:17
basically a pickem or a short dog like plus one O 5.
24:20
Now he's all the way up to -140 so about a 45 cent steam move in
24:25
favor of Miles Johns right off the bat tells me a lot of good
24:28
money, respected money is poured in on Miles Johns.
24:32
Then I go to the bet split. Miles Johns is only getting 55%
24:35
of bets, but 76% of dollars. So basically half the tickets,
24:40
but 3/4 of the money. That is a + 21% smart money
24:44
discrepancy. So we're starting to build our
24:46
case. Remember what our, our, our
24:47
angle here with UFC is Younger, taller, longer reach, line move,
24:52
low bets, higher dollars. So we got the line move, we got
24:55
low bets, higher dollars. Here's where it gets even
24:57
better. Now they're both 5 foot 6.
25:01
Andrade has actually about an inch advantage in terms of
25:03
reach, but a big youth advantage.
25:06
Miles Johns is 30 years old. His opponent, Douglas Silva de
25:11
Andrade, is 38 years old. So something of basically UFC
25:16
Sharp told me a long time ago is fade fighters who are 35 or
25:20
older, fade fighters who are five years older than their
25:23
opponent. So I want to fade Douglas Silva
25:26
De Andrade because he's 38 years old.
25:28
I want to back Miles Johns because he has an 8 year youth
25:30
advantage. Miles Johns also if you look
25:33
into some stats here, he has the better striking accuracy, 47%
25:38
versus 38%. He also is better at defending
25:41
significant strikes. He defends at 68% versus 58%.
25:46
Also was reading about his superior takedown defense so he
25:49
doesn't get taken down to the mat very often.
25:51
He usually kind of repels it. And the better grappler in terms
25:54
of wrestling. And I was kind of reading about
25:57
both these these these fighters, these fighters.
26:00
And basically kind of the gist that I was getting was that
26:03
Miles Johns is on is on the rise.
26:04
He's like at the peak of his career right now.
26:07
He's won three straight. He's really showing, you know,
26:10
his ability here in the UFC, whereas Deandrad is kind of
26:14
getting older and, you know, might be, might be, you know,
26:16
falling, falling over the hump here at this point.
26:19
So we got one fighter on the rise, only 55% bets, but 76%
26:24
money. Huge line move in his favor,
26:26
plus one O 5 to -140 big youth advantage, better striker,
26:30
better defender, better grappler.
26:33
We've checked off pretty much every box here, guys.
26:35
I'm going to go with miles Johns pointing in the UFC.
26:40
I'm going miles Johns at -140 that about does it for today's
26:46
episode of the all systems gopod episode 56.
26:49
But reminder, if you enjoy the all systems go sports betting
26:53
pod, if you missed it while I was in Africa, if you're glad
26:57
that it's back, if you enjoy, you know, tuning in and and
27:00
listening to the breakdowns, whether you tail every bet I
27:03
recommend, whether you fade them, whether you pick and
27:05
choose, it's all up to you. I just want to say thank you.
27:08
Thank you for taking the time out of your day.
27:10
The 25 to 30 minutes at the pod runs to listen.
27:13
It means a ton to me. There's nothing better to me
27:16
than spending the time to break down a sharp bet and watching it
27:20
cash with your buddies. To me, that's the kind of the
27:22
ultimate thrill that I get. But it's an honor to host this
27:25
pod and it's great to again pull up a chair to the virtual bar
27:28
and and talk sharp bets with you each day.
27:30
So First off, thank you for listening.
27:32
Secondly, can you do me a favor? I have a favor to ask of you.
27:35
Can you help me grow this podcast organically?
27:38
Can you recommend it to a friend?
27:39
Can you follow it on iTunes or Spotify?
27:41
But more importantly, can you give this pod a 5 star review?
27:45
It really helps to gain credibility to rise up the
27:48
rankings. It takes literally maybe 2
27:51
seconds to just go to the rating, hit five and boom,
27:54
you're done. But would mean a lot to this pod
27:55
would mean a lot to me. If you haven't done it yet,
27:57
please give it five stars. Of course, if you enjoy the pod
28:00
and you are interested in data-driven betting, maybe you
28:03
love betting on sports. You didn't have a ton of success
28:06
and you said, hey, betting just one based upon what I think or
28:09
want or hope or expect to happen.
28:12
Guess what? That isn't really predictive.
28:14
Now you've learned to read the market become sharper, beat some
28:17
closing lines. Maybe you've become a little
28:19
more contrarian. You look at betting splits and
28:22
line moves and system matches. If any of that is the case,
28:25
maybe you maybe you flat bet now and you avoid those parlays
28:28
which are a handout to the book. You're basically just pulling
28:30
the the lever on the penny slot when you're when you're placing
28:33
a parlay. But if any of that's the case
28:36
and the pot has helped you along in your sports betting journey
28:38
and you want to learn more about data-driven sports betting, then
28:41
here's here's something you can do and guess what Father's Day
28:44
is coming up. What the heck are you going to
28:46
get your dad, your grandfather? What do you want as a gift if
28:50
you're a dad? I'm a dog dad.
28:51
Hope, hope to have a a kid one day, God willing.
28:55
But I got a great gift. If you are crunched for time and
28:59
don't know what to get dad, you can get him the Everything Guide
29:02
to Sports Betting, the book that I wrote.
29:04
Just go to Amazon.com, type in the everything Guide to Sports
29:07
betting. It'll come in time for Sunday.
29:10
But if Dad likes to bet on sports or wants to get into
29:12
sports betting, he has no freaking clue how to start.
29:15
The Everything Guide will help him.
29:17
It's going to explain to Dad how lines are set, how and why they
29:19
move, how to read line movement, how to locate sharp action, how
29:22
to place a bet in person or online, how to shop for the best
29:25
line, how to set up a bankroll management plan, all included in
29:28
the Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
29:29
So pick one up and when I see you and Dad at the book, or
29:32
maybe you're the dad, I'm going to I'm going to buy you a drink
29:35
and I'm going to sign the book for you.
29:37
I would seriously thank you. I really appreciate it, guys.
29:39
With that being said, whether I see you at the Borgata in
29:42
Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New
29:44
Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut at the
29:47
Encore in Boston are plain Ridge Park Casino R.E.M.
29:50
Jim Springfield and my neck of the woods here in Boston, in
29:53
Massachusetts or out in the desert where the true grinders
29:56
get down, where Billy Walters sends his number runners, where
29:59
lowest choose possible is found, the South Point.
30:01
Sweat and Sharp can train plays jumping in the stadium swim pool
30:04
when JD Martinez walks it off for you, wherever it may be.
30:08
You're going to come up to me. You're going to show me that
30:10
Mets walk off ticket, the snakes ticket.
30:13
Show me a Tampa Bay Chicago Cubs under 7 1/2.
30:16
Guess what? First one's on me, next one's on
30:18
you. We're going to post about the
30:18
book. Sweat Sharp can train plays all
30:20
night long. So wish you the best of luck
30:22
everyone. Have a fantastic Friday night.
30:25
Have a great weekend. Go Celtics and happy Father's
30:29
Day to all the dads out there. I hope you have a great day and
30:32
hopefully, hopefully we can cash them tickets tonight and get a
30:34
winner for dad in biting in the UFC for tomorrow night.
30:39
But have a great weekend everyone.
30:40
We'll be back at it on Monday for episode 57 of the All
30:44
Systems Go Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
30:47
Have a great weekend everyone, Good luck.