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Melbourne Property 2026: The Buying Opportunity of the Decade is here | Property Experts · The Follio Property Podcast

• 0:00
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• 0:56
  Melbourne has just recorded its sharpest property price fall. Melbourne home prices have been falling for six months straight. More than a thousand homes have been removed from Melbourne's rental market. Melbourne's market going down by 25% since 2016. If you factor in inflation, you're talking like a 30% or more loss on that asset. That probably makes people fearful.
• 1:16
  The data may not be as positive in terms of median house price growth because you're going to see sub-markets underperforming, which affects the overall median. What's the summary of the market right now in Melbourne? It's droppy. The sub-markets that are outperforming are the markets, but for those that are patient and that are focusing on owner-occupier areas, there's going to be some really good results over the medium to long term.
• 1:36
  Where do you see the biggest impact on the market for the rest of 2026? There's some natural headwinds because you've got arguably increased inflation, a rate rising environment, an unexpected war, which all create new stories, which creates sentiment. So there's short term sentiment, which is great for buying conditions.
• 1:55
  You're listening to the Folio Property Podcast. I'm Rhys Bettle and I'm here each week with my co-host, Lachlan Delahunty. Lachlan, we're back in the Perth studio for a couple of weeks over, Rhys, actually. You've taken me everywhere, Rhys. Sydney, Brisbane, Melbourne. We have done the grounds and learned a lot. We have learned a lot. Got some really good guests coming out, but I thought let's just update our audience about kind of the future of the show and where we're going to be taking the podcast.
• 2:20
  Some of the feedback is not everyone wants guests, which we respect and love. My theory was you're sick of hearing me and Rhys just yabber on about the property market, but apparently that's what you guys want. So on the Tuesday, we're just going to keep that. Rhys and I having a bit of a chat about where we see markets and opportunities, investment strategies, and then our guest podcast, we're going to feature on either a Thursday or Sunday, some point later in the week. So yeah, that's probably a good summary of what we're doing.
• 2:46
  Absolutely. So we've got some really good guests coming up. Not only guests, there's some other projects we've probably flirted on the podcast before, such as the value-add strategy that we really want to start to bring to life, a bit more stories that we talk on the podcast as well. So, yep, Tuesday is going to be me and Lachlan every week talking data, strategies, market updates, and then an episode later in the week will be guests or some sort of value-add content that hopefully everyone...
• 3:10
  listening to this get some value out of. Rhys has made me film all the projects we're working on behind the scenes. So you'll see some of our renovation projects, developments, et cetera. So really opening up to you guys. So please tread lightly before commenting.
• 3:23
  Hey guys, quick thing to share. If you're serious about investing in Australian property right now, you need to see what we put together. It's called the National Investment Report and it's our brand new monthly deep dive into exactly where the market is moving, what the data is saying and what the smart investors are looking at right now. The March edition has just dropped and you can get the first access completely free. Just scan the QR code on the screen right now or click in the link below to fill out the form.
• 3:50
  Let's kick off today. So, you know, we mentioned we've done Sydney in Melbourne multiple times over the last two weeks and spending a lot of time on the ground in Melbourne. I thought we haven't done an episode on Melbourne in three or four months. It is changing. It's good getting here on the ground. It's good going out and seeing properties, seeing what's selling for, what the market conditions are. So I thought today let's do a deep dive into some of the feedback we're seeing. Let's talk through Melbourne. I'm going to give some latest data points that have come to light, but I think we're always going to get the real value of some of this.
• 4:18
  sentiment, the feedback we've seen. Before we kick off that, we haven't had a podcast since the RBA announcements come out and the cash rate's been increased again by 25 bips. Where do you see that having the biggest impact in the market? Not necessarily just with Melbourne, but across Australia?
• 4:33
  It's sentiment, right? And it was a, I believe, it was a knee-jerk reaction. They still didn't have the quarterly inflation figures, so they're going off monthly data figures. So for those that are listening, they made a decision on the new board that they were going to essentially, it was a reform for how the RBA works.
• 4:48
  meet and discuss and bring forward these announcements, and it was meant to change and be for the better. It just shows all the stuff that they said they were going to do regarding not to take into consideration monthly inflation data points because they don't have enough information,
• 5:04
  It goes against everything that they promised last year. They've made a decision based on sentiment. There's a war happening, which absolutely that's going to have impacts, I agree, but they've made it on pretty choppy monthly data because the quarter dollar is not there. They can't come out and say, yep, we've been really informed with information we've got. Hence, while we don't meet every month now and make a reactive decision, we space them out so we can make really informed decisions. They haven't done that. That's echoed by the fact that four out of the nine members have been able to make a
• 5:31
  voted against the idea because they didn't have enough information in front of them to make an informed decision. It's a reactive response and it has massive impacts. You've got a government that's been giving out money pushing up inflation for the last six months. You've got all these first-time buyers now that are geared up to their eyeballs with debt and you've just thrown them into a rate-rising environment. We've already had one. This is the second and the indication of that meeting that it's likely to be more.
• 5:58
  I would be quite nervous as a first home buyer that's uneducated, that's gone out there on a whim and bought something at 95% LVR and they've just all of a sudden put wool over my eyes and I've got two rate rises. So what I did do my budgeting on has now changed significantly. So I just think it's unfair.
• 6:16
  to, you know, it's easy to say it's unfair to the everyday punter, but it is because there was no rationale. There wasn't enough explanation as to why that rate rise occurred, and it is reactive. And it may, in hindsight, have been the right call, but with the information they had, I don't believe they had enough information to make that call. It's interesting because you speak about this conversation,
• 6:38
  on the podcast quite frequently of how sentiment can really drive a market above and beyond simple demand versus supply. And you're already seeing this within the market, just a bit of fear mongering going on, I guess, with certain areas and demographics. Where do you see the biggest impact on this? So, you're mentioning there the vulnerability of a first time investor.
• 6:59
  Is that where you see the biggest sort of concerns in the market with these rate rises or is it actually the complete opposite, the upper quartile property prices where they're 2 mil plus?
• 7:10
  Yeah, they will be impacted and it's market specific, right? So as I've said on the podcast and I had half day I had 10 clients reach out sort of seeking advice and it's funny, it's like when there's tailwinds and sentiment is positive, everyone's happy in the moment, there's any sort of change in that, people start to second guess themselves and the strategy we implement are not for a three, six, 12 month window, right? We're doing strategies for three, five, 10 years.
• 7:37
  So these little bumps along the road are sort of all part of the journey. So it's sort of you need to zoom out a little bit before making irrational decisions to one of my clients who wanted to sell a property that we bought six months ago. I was like, just relax and let's weather the storm because nothing's ever as bad as what it's meant to be. Nothing's ever good. But that doesn't answer your question.
• 7:55
  It's market specific where demand outweighs supply in markets such as Perth and Brisbane, for example, it's going to have a very modest impact and typically probably for the first week at home opens, you'll see less buyer activity and then there'll be a developing new story in two weeks and everyone will forget about it.
• 8:18
  Because people don't understand a rate rise or a rate cut takes six months to come into effect before you actually see it hit the bank account. So these rate rises, it's all sentiment driven. Sentiment in these markets will be impacted for a week or two. And then, like I said, new news will hit the media and then...
• 8:35
  There'll be no properties available to buy and prices continue to run. In the areas where there's not oversupply but there's an imbalance and there's probably more stock available have more of an impact. Sydney's a really good example of that. The likes of a Tasmania market will be impacted. Melbourne's an interesting one because the balance of supply and demand has been reducing, so supply has been reducing over the last 12 months. But if you had to portion off, yes, the first-time buyer market's most vulnerable because there's
• 9:02
  25 bips will impact them more and hit their bottom pocket harder than anyone else. Harder than someone who's got a $3, $5, $10 million budget, but sentiment in those markets will shift on the back of this news.
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• 10:02
  So looking at the Melbourne high-level stats, it does paint a very interesting tail. There's some really positive signs there, and I'd love to get your feedback on. And there's obviously some stats that are probably trending in the wrong direction. So kicking it off, last three months, the Melbourne market in terms of property prices down 0.34%. From a 12-month average, still up 4.7%. But I know when we were talking in the back end of last year, Melbourne did over 5% for the year. So the last couple of months, we've definitely seen a downward trend.
• 10:29
  So, that's probably more- It's sub-markets though, as we'll discuss. Absolutely. However, sales volume, they've seen a massive increase in sales volume, 10.7% increase in the last 12 months. Listings are up 17% as well in the last 12 months. And days on markets reduced by 18% as well. So, that's sort of showing a positive sentiment in the market. How do you-
• 10:50
  How do you take some of that- There's some good news there and some positive news there and it's like, what do you make of it? Exactly. Yeah, yeah. No, it's a good point. It's because the reason when data's choppy like that is because there's sub markets within the markets operating at different speeds and you're seeing it on the ground that higher end quartile, so to speak, sort of two million plus is soft.
• 11:12
  There's been a lot of pain there and the reason there is is because of that land tax issue. All those sort of people who have been holding property for many years and larger portfolios have started to have to offload them because they can't due to the land tax issue and we know it's scaled. On an individual investment at $850,000, it doesn't have huge implications but if you've
• 11:35
  It has a massive implication and that's really taken into effect. So you're seeing some of that higher end dollars where there's a lot of land content and in some blue chip localities, it's taken a hit. You see the investment market extremely bullish, sort of the inner city and the dual income sweet spot between sort of 800 and 1.5, really strong. And going to a couple of auctions, there was –
• 12:02
  strong participation, lots of own occupiers, and that's what we really want to see. But certainly that top tier, the lifestyle markets down the peninsula, extremely soft.
• 12:12
  What about those areas we hear a lot of these investment groups or when the sentiment was starting to pick up from Melbourne, a lot of investors were talking of the likes of your Meltons, your Cranborns, Craigie Burns, I might be pronouncing these wrong, Craigie Burns, your Donnybrooks, your Tarnies, are those sort of areas where there's abundance of supply, are those sort of areas sort of bringing some of these figures down as well?
• 12:37
  Yeah, when you talk about sentiment, these markets get smashed when sentiment changes, right? Because they're all built around investment. And negative news typically reduces investment, reduces speculation. So, you'll find that, and we've seen that, that those markets and your regionals around Australia will start to struggle on the back of this negative sentiment because it's purely investment driven.
• 12:59
  And that's why we always encourage listeners to operate and try to buy properties with owner-occupied dominated areas. An auction I went to in Melbourne last week, there were six different bidders on that asset and it was at a nice price point for dual income.
• 13:14
  husband and wife or partners going in there to try to get within 10Ks of the CBD between 1 and 1.5, a lot of activity, a lot of buys. None of those were investors. So, they'd be like, okay, well, why are you buying something investors want? That's the type of asset I want in my portfolio because there's strong interest for it. And yes, I missed out, but I would have had to pay more for it than going out on the outskirts and dealing with investors. But that's where you want to be participating.
• 13:38
  So this early in a cycle for Melbourne, it's clearly, you know, we've spoken about it at length. I'm sure a lot of our listeners have seen the data over the last couple of years. Melbourne's gone through a long stagnation period. However, it's had the green shoots last year. We've seen incremental growth up until the last couple of months. I think from last year, from memory, February to December every month was an incremental growth.
• 14:00
  Do you start to see these desirable owner-occupier, maybe in that medium to high price bracket, start to make the movement first when a market starts to make a move? Every market will move at different phases. So if you look at Melbourne, it's going to be underpinned, I believe, by the more affordable price points that will then start to make those higher price points more attractive. And that's what we're seeing. You're seeing first-owned buyers on a feed-in frenzy, sub a million dollars, competing and driving up prices significantly.
• 14:30
  personally and as a business, we see a real opportunity between that sort of 900 to 1.5 because there's arguably a bit of artificial inflation at the lower price points because of what the government have done to stimulate first-time buyer activity. So, above that, certainly when you look at what you can get for 1.1 compared to what you can get for 850 or 900, there's a disproportionate gap in value that we really like. But again, it's competitive because it's dual incomes. It's a competitive price point in good localities.
• 14:59
  I think over the next probably two years, we'll start to see value above that into the top quartile of values in that sort of two to four million because I believe you'll see a natural increase in values at that more affordable price point. Then you start to see value and then the jump between say 1.6 to 2 may look like you're getting a lot more value for your money. That's what will be driving the Melbourne market. It's not a perfect market as we've discussed and a market very early in the cycle is a little bit choppy.
• 15:28
  and you take a long-term view on Melbourne, which we do, if you take a long-term view, you're buying, I believe, at a discounted price when you look at the long-term compounding growth average over the last 30 years and you look at the other markets around Australia,
• 15:46
  You buy Melbourne at a discount at the moment and that's not going to be there forever. But you need to take a longer term view because yes, the next 12 months is likely to be a little bit choppy within markets but like Perth for instance in 2018 and 2019, it was choppy. But if you look back then, you're like, well, they were great investments because you had choice, you could buy well.
• 16:04
  Same if you look at Brisbane in 2016 and 17 when there was an oversupply of properties. If you look at Adelaide in 2015, go back to the previous cycle, Sydney in 2009, will surprise a lot of people, was really soft and you were spoiled for choice and it was a bit choppy. So this is a moment in time but you look at the data and this is where when speaking to people in the market race, it was interesting. People that live in Melbourne, there's negative sentiment in pretty much everywhere you look
• 16:32
  They're fed up with the state government. They argue that it hasn't been dealt with well. There's a lot of headwinds with taxes and reforms. But then you step out of it and purely look at the data. It's all the same stuff we've seen in other markets where you've got days on market reducing huge population growth. You can't deny that this sheer population migrating to Melbourne and Victoria in general because of multiple reasons. A, it's our biggest city in Australia and B, our second largest jobs hub in Australia outside of Sydney.
• 17:00
  And the third point, it's now extremely cheap to rent and to buy comparative to Sydney, Brisbane, Adelaide and now Perth. So there's a lot of reason and we know the population is the key driver to markets. So zoom out and when we're outside of that market, it pays a clearer picture than those that are probably in it and struggling and like we saw when we were in Perth recent 18 and 19, no one could see a way out of the despair of the Perth property market late 2017, 18 and 19.
• 17:28
  And here we are in 2026 and it's sword pass and our median house price now is over a million dollars when back then it was a touch over 500. We had Trent Fleskins on the podcast a couple of months ago and we were talking through his journey and when he was buying and when Perth was completely underwater. And he said that was his favorite buying conditions because of the –
• 17:50
  The stock he could get and he could manipulate some value potential as well, but he wasn't paying overs. In this market in Melbourne, and I know you're excited by the opportunity in Melbourne, you've personally picked up a couple of opportunities yourself, which we'll touch on in a later podcast once we start documenting them. What type of investors are buying in Melbourne in this type of market? What type of investors?
• 18:11
  What are we buying or what's the general? What I'm getting at is like people, you know, like a first-time investor is always chasing yield or chasing quick capital growth. Like is it more an experienced, sophisticated investor that's probably getting their teeth into Melbourne now because they're thinking bigger picture? Back to what you were saying is like, you know, when you're younger and you buy shares and you're just looking at it every day, seeing if it's uplift, but then when you're older, you're like, you might not look at my portfolio for a month.
• 18:38
  Because I'm thinking of a long-term view. Yep, yep. You just made a good analogy. Melbourne's like a blue-chip share. And when you buy blue-chip shares, you're not checking, you know, the stock exchange every day to see if it's going up or down because you're buying them for the long term. And that's how I see Melbourne. Blue-chip share that you are...
• 18:54
  investing for a period of time. It's more of a sophisticated investor. Yes, there's going to be a lot of groups out on the outer fringes buying investment stock, buying off the plant apartments and that sort of stuff. But for the smart money that we're seeing and speaking to, it's buying in where there's value.
• 19:12
  where we see Melbourne at the moment. There's some really good opportunities. It's almost mind-blowing how you've been able to buy them at prices that are, in some cases, less than what they were five to seven years ago. Name another market in Australia where you can buy at or under what they paid for seven years ago. It doesn't exist. So, there's opportunity there. So, it is probably a more sophisticated investor. It's not for everyone in the sense that those that are impatient and want a quick win, you know, they're not going to be able
• 19:38
  They'll get pushed into the regionals and all these exciting opportunities around Australia. But the smart money's going into Melbourne, in my opinion.
• 19:44
  It's not going to be those people that click on the Instagram reels where it's 70 grand uplift in the last three, six months. I think that type of investing, yeah, for sure. But like Trent said, when you look at what I'm doing personally, there's a huge opportunity to pick up value-add opportunities. We're not just reliant on the market as well. And again, that's not for every type of investor, but you can be very selective and quite picky with what we're buying and that in itself...
• 20:10
  you know, gives you the opportunity to buy assets where you can artificially create wealth through the property, through renovation, development, et cetera. Going into some of the investment activity stats, so we kind of touched on, you know, listings and sales volumes and from a generic standpoint,
• 20:25
  But actually looking at the latest figures for a yield perspective, a medium yield perspective, Melbourne's increased to 3.7%, which is ahead of Sydney, Brisbane and Adelaide and not far off Perth medium anymore as well. So for an investor, that should start to excite them that there is a strong position there for yield. We've said this before from the data that we track, rents are up 60% and from a vacancy rates as well, we're at like a 20-year low in Melbourne. So from an investor standpoint, although they have all exited the market, there is some strong signs for them to start entering as well.
• 20:55
  Yeah. So if you stand back again, look at the fundamentals, 20-year low vacancy rate, very difficult for stock to become on because a lot of builders went fast, particularly in Victoria through COVID. So the supply channels moving forward are really, really restricted, and you've got the second fastest growing population in the country.
• 21:12
  That alone will indicate the long-term strengths and fundamentals of that market. But yes, cash flow is really important when you're investing and we're seeing good quality assets, established assets trading above 4% yields. Cash burn is relevant, particularly when you look at what could be happening with negative gearing. Essentially, cash burn becomes more relevant than ever, particularly when you're looking at an interest rate now above 6%.
• 21:39
  We need to be getting 4%, 4.5% to make it palatable to hold these assets longer term.
• 21:44
  Let's get into some actual suburbs that we ourselves over the last couple of months have been going out with the team and speaking to agents out there as well. From a first-time investor standpoint, so looking at that budget, I know you're saying that the best value is actually probably above that first home in a cap, which is 950 in Melbourne, so something sort of 900 to 1.1. Yeah. It doesn't mean there isn't opportunities sub a million. You just have to be really selective because you don't want to compete with the masses and end up going down the garden path where...
• 22:12
  You know, you're getting caught up in the momentum of the first-time buyers. Yeah. We were looking at a lot of assets in the southeast, down by Bayside, so Elwoods of the world, Mentone, looking at Brunswick in the inner north as well. I know you've got a bit of affiliation with some of the inner west as well. What are some of the suburbs there that you've been, you know, that's caught your attention after the last recent trip?
• 22:37
  We speak about the Wild West of Melbourne being the Outer West and we want to avoid those but the Inner West is not too dissimilar to the Inner West of Sydney. What has outperformed the Sydney market over the last 20 years has been the Inner West. It's done extremely well because it's undervalued for a long period of time, no different to the Inner West of Melbourne. We've seen really good value there. Anything along the Bay side, right through essentially around the Bay, we're seeing really
• 23:07
  So it's, again, targeting areas where the fundamentals for own occupiers are strong. And what's that? What are the school catchment areas? Where are the government spending money for infrastructure? So both shopping centers, we know that there's huge projects going through Melbourne at the moment, massive and cornerstone around their infrastructure nodes. So we're taking really strong positions.
• 23:29
  within proximity to them because we know that's the sort of 10, 20-year plan is the Victorian government to focus on those. So that's sort of, we've spent a bit of our time in Melbourne and it was well reinforced when you look at home open activity. There wasn't a lot of investment groups or buyers agents. There was a lot of own occupiers.
• 23:48
  That was the feedback from literally every agent that I spoke to in our client's budget around $700 to $950, all first homeowners. And you should never compare a suburb to another state or whatnot, but it is hard to have that. You're looking to see what's happening in the Perth market. You're looking at similar suburbs to similar amenities, similar infrastructure, and you'd argue Melbourne obviously is
• 24:15
  should be much more superior. But a lot of the price- Historically, yes. Historically. A lot of the price points we were looking at for comparable, say, a suburb in Perth are going for up to 200K more for a similar type asset. But look at the one I just sold in Leaderville for 2.2 and I could buy a comparable asset, I believe, in Yarraville, which is west of Melbourne.
• 24:38
  for 1.15 and it was a very similar footprint. Probably needed 100 to 150K spent on it to get up to the same spec. But value for money, 2.2 asset in Leaderville, comparable suburb of Yarraville, same cafe strip amenity. There's a lot of similarities, really good school catchment area, not too dissimilar proximity from the CBD and it's a million dollars less. You don't even have to be in property to realize that that's probably not a
• 25:06
  bad hedge on the Melbourne market. We've got some examples here as well. We did a bit of digging with some local agents just trying to understand, especially in that price point that you mentioned there where you see a lot of value and there's good buying conditions for smart investors or even owner occupiers in that. I'm talking around that 1.1 to 2 mil price bracket. But we've got some examples here where
• 25:28
  There's been, when they recently sold, looking at how much, you know, how much growth or lack of growth there was over a period, over a longer period. So let me just read one out for you now. So there's one on 68 Osborne Street in South Yarra. In May 2016, it sold for $2.1 million. Sold last year, about 12 months ago, for $1.95 million. So in nine years, it actually went down 7%.
• 25:56
  And 7% is not factoring in inflation over that period, right? So if you factor in inflation on that, nine years, let's call it 2.5%, that's a 25% loss race. And that probably makes people fearful. I only see opportunity because tell me a market in Australia that's gone down by 25% since 2016. It doesn't exist. Another good example here for you. Just fire them off.
• 26:18
  This was obviously a little bit of a higher one, but on the lower end of the budget, so 14 Murray Street, Paran, did I say it? Yeah, Paran. Paran sold in 2017 for $1.26 million, then recently sold November 24 for $1.2 million. So no growth in seven years and actually was a 60K loss. Yep.
• 26:39
  That's in the lower price bracket as well. We purchased one four weeks ago for a client in South Melbourne for 1.35 and it traded for 1.42 five years prior to that. These are big numbers. These are big numbers. Big falls. And I think what you said there with inflation is bang on. You can look at these numbers and go, there's no growth, but actually there's negative growth on all this. Significantly negative growth because you've got to factor in inflation to get the real net return or net loss.
• 27:05
  And from an investor standpoint, you said this excites you. Why should it excite someone? Why would someone not be fearful that that's just going to continue to stagnate? Well, let's just look at a meeting that I had when I was there with quite a large property group who have been in Melbourne, only ever operated in Melbourne, only ever traded property in Melbourne. And it's just like these stories, these war stories have got...
• 27:28
  This particular gentleman had a rent roll and things were trading. Some of these examples were trading for 10%, 15% less now than they were five years ago. Just created all this negativity, negativity, and that just got me so excited because these are people that are in the market every day.
• 27:44
  speaking to agents every day. So that negativity just festers and they'll be telling their vendors the same thing. So as a buyer, I see that as an opportunity. It's not that I want to rain on the downturn of the Victorian market. That's not a good thing. But as an investor, I get excited because like when we were in Perth in 1819, I was having the exact same conversations and I was out there telling people it was a good idea to take a strong position in Perth
• 28:07
  And told a lot of people, and was sort of beating the drum that, hey, guys, over in Melbourne and Sydney, you should be investing over here in Western Australia because it's pretty depressed over here. Everyone's saying the market can't go up, but the fundamentals look pretty good on paper. You look at the data. It's not too dissimilar in Melbourne from what it was in Perth in 2018 and 19. Those who took advantage of that, obviously extremely happy with their return. We're talking examples of 120, 130, 140% growth over that period, but it's when you're in that market.
• 28:34
  it's hard to look out and that's what we noticed. So I do see that as an opportunity because that's when you can pick up really good deals. Even when a market's balanced where supplies meet in demand, you can't get a deal. You have to go to auction in Melbourne. You go to auction and you get bidded up, up, up, up, up, up, and all of a sudden you're in a situation where you're questioning if you've overpaid or not. We're in a position now where we can be really selective
• 28:58
  And if that's the sentiment of agents and the locals on the ground, the sellers on the ground, put the foot on the juggler and get the best price you can. And that's what we're seeing and that's what we're doing. So it is easy on the outside looking into a market. And that gentleman that I was in the room with having a conversation that was breathing down that negative sentiment, and I was sort of looking back and smiling. I just made a very simple analogy. It's like, who in the great Warren Buffett?
• 29:24
  be greedy when those are fearful and be fearful when those are greedy. And he goes, I knew you were going to say that. And I'm like, he's just like, who's this kid off the block that is talking about this market like he knows it, but it's just, they couldn't understand the data. He couldn't tell me what the population growth figures were for Victoria. He couldn't tell me what the vacancy rate was, couldn't tell me the days on market. And this is the thing, everyone's got an opinion about property markets, right? But if you can't tell me...
• 29:52
  Those three fundamental stats, days on market, stock on market, population growth, what is the population of your city and what is the market, what's the long-term compounding growth rate of that particular city. If you can't just give me those five data sets, you can't give me an opinion on what direction that market's going. And everyone we spoke to in Victoria couldn't give us those five data sets. So am I going to value their opinion on-
• 30:13
  The sentiment? Will I value their opinion on what direction the market's going? No, but what have they told me? I know exactly where the sentiment is for the local marketplace, which is fantastic because it brings opportunity for those that can read markets. Does it almost feel like...
• 30:29
  Groundhog Day for you. So you've heavily invested in the Perth market during the start of that, Adelaide and Brisbane as well. So you've seen the same trends and does this feel the same in Melbourne? It certainly does. But like when I was buying in Perth in 18 and 19, Brisbane, you know, 17, Adelaide prior to that, I didn't come into Perth in 19 and expect that it's going to have 120% growth by 2026. Because if I did that, you know,
• 30:57
  I certainly wouldn't be sitting here with you, Rhys, on a podcast, or maybe I will be because I like our conversations, but you'd take disproportionately strong positions. But did I take a long-term 10-year view on Perth when I entered in 2018, 2019? Absolutely. Did I think the market would turn as quickly as it did? No, but the fundamentals were strong, and it's outperformed our expectation. But regardless, I took a 10-year view, and it's happened in six.
• 31:22
  Do I look at this Groundhog Day for Melbourne with my 10-year view? Absolutely. And if you take that view with a little bit of patience, you are going to get strong compounding growth returns in the Melbourne market. Awesome.
• 31:37
  Let's summarize because there's some really good feedback there from the sentiment that we had on the ground. There's a couple of examples of some good buying conditions there. Talking about the rate increases, what impact that's going to have. The recent negative growth, there's some positive signs there from an investor standpoint and even just from a sales volume perspective.
• 31:56
  Let's do another podcast on this in three or four months, but where do you see the market going in the next, like, sorry, let's summarize. What's the summary of the market right now in Melbourne and where do you see it going for the rest of 2026?
• 32:08
  It's choppy. There's sub markets that are outperforming other markets and that's going to be consistent probably for the next 12 to 18 months. But for those that are patient and that are focusing on owner-occupier areas, you'll weather the storm and there's going to be some really good results over the medium to long term.
• 32:27
  But there's some natural headwinds and there's going to be some new stories because you've got arguably increased inflation, rate rising environment, and unexpected war, which all create new stories, which creates sentiment. So the short-term sentiment may be low.
• 32:42
  which is great for buying conditions. So stick with it. The data may not be as positive in terms of median house price growth because you're going to see sub markets underperforming, which affects the overall median, but you're going to see some really good results in some pockets of Melbourne over the next 12 to 18 months. You've been listening to Folio Property Podcast. Yeah.
• 33:09
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• 33:24
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