Latest / DEEP INSIGHT / 'Worse than if she had just said nothing' REACTION to Paxton's estranged wife's ad backing him

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'Worse than if she had just said nothing' REACTION to Paxton's estranged wife's ad backing him · DEEP INSIGHT

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  Speaker 1: With control of Congress on the line, let's bring an
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  Speaker 1: MSNL political analyst.
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  Speaker 2: And professor at Morgan State University, Jason Johnson.
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: Galen Druk is a political analyst and host of the
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: GD Politics podcast. Mariana Sotomayor is Capitol Hill correspondent for Puck,
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  Speaker 1: an MSNL political analyst and host of Fast Politics podcast.
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  Speaker 2: Molly Jean Fast. Molly, you're going to be so surprised.
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  Speaker 2: Big surprise. What is he talking about?
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  Speaker 3: Modern day presidential. Yeah, that video. When I saw that,
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  Speaker 3: I was like, can that actually be real? He's talking
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  Speaker 3: about whatever is happening is information bubble, which is curated
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  Speaker 3: by Natalie Harp. I mean, he may be on an alternate,
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  Speaker 3: you know, we all worry about being in information bubbles,
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  Speaker 3: but he is in one of the most. sort of
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  Speaker 3: exaggerated cases of that. But I also think, you know,
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  Speaker 3: they're sending him out there because he likes to campaign.
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  Speaker 3: But you'll see, I mean, the fact that they're sending
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  Speaker 3: him to these very red districts, they're not sending him
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  Speaker 3: to swing districts. And when you see him and J.D.
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  Speaker 3: Vance out on the trail, when they're going to places
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  Speaker 3: like Iowa, which should not be a swing district, you're
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  Speaker 3: having Senate candidates not campaign with them. And so there's
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  Speaker 3: a reason for that. And that's because they're seeing the
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  Speaker 3: internals and they're seeing their drag on the candidate.
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  Speaker 4: Dr.
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  Speaker 1: Jason Johnson, I want to bring you in on this
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  Speaker 1: because the president went to Truth Social to now declare
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  Speaker 1: all voting in America is corrupt.
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  Speaker 2: It started as a post about Brazil's elections.
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  Speaker 1: He wrote, 125 million people voted today in the first
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  Speaker 1: round of Brazil's presidential election. The results came out shortly
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  Speaker 1: after the vote closed on the same day. In Detroit, Philadelphia, California,
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  Speaker 1: and numerous other U.S. cities and states, the results, with
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  Speaker 1: much smaller numbers, will often take weeks to rig. I mean, calculate.
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  Speaker 1: Voting in America is corrupt. He should probably, as you know, Jason,
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  Speaker 1: tune in more to the anti-incumbent sentiment that is coming
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  Speaker 1: out of Brazil.
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  Speaker 2: But on this promise of.
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  Speaker 1: A big surprise, if he expresses confidence that Republicans can
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  Speaker 1: win big and they don't, then has he essentially primed
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  Speaker 1: the pump to complain of corruption?
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  Speaker 5: Well, he has.
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  Speaker 6: And let's let's go back to Brazil for half a
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  Speaker 6: second here, which is something we'd all love to do.
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  Speaker 5: From time to time. Look, Bolsonaro overperformed. Right.
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  Speaker 6: And that was in the situation, as you pointed out,
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  Speaker 6: where you have sort of anti-incumbent sentiment. But what's also
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  Speaker 6: key here, which is not going to apply to the
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  Speaker 6: United States, is in Brazil you have compulsory voting until
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  Speaker 6: you're 70. Donald Trump, at the same time that he's
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  Speaker 6: telling people that they have to turn out and they
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  Speaker 6: have to be engaged and we want the election results
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  Speaker 6: very quickly, has failed. His own minions at the local
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  Speaker 6: level in Texas and in Ohio and other places shutting
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  Speaker 6: down voting booths, shutting down voting locations, giving confusing messages
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  Speaker 6: about where you're going to be able to vote and
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  Speaker 6: how you're eligible to vote and whether or not they're going.
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  Speaker 5: To send ICE agents there.
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  Speaker 6: So he's creating so much chaos, both in favor of
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  Speaker 6: his victory or in favor of a loss. Look, Trump
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  Speaker 6: was going to say something terrible anyway if he doesn't
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  Speaker 6: get the results that he wants. But his clear lack
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  Speaker 6: of messaging is part of the problem that the Republicans
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  Speaker 6: are dealing.
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  Speaker 5: With at the local level.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah.
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  Speaker 1: To your point about mandatory voting, my neighbors are dual citizens, U.S.
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  Speaker 1: and Brazil, and they had to drag their butts from
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  Speaker 1: New Jersey to Queens in order to make sure that
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  Speaker 1: they cast their votes in that election.
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  Speaker 2: All right.
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  Speaker 1: So you have Democrats expanding their map. As I noted,
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  Speaker 1: these are districts Trump won by double digits, places like Arkansas, Nevada.
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  Speaker 1: What are you hearing from Democrats about where and how
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  Speaker 1: they are choosing to make these investments?
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  Speaker 5: Yeah.
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  Speaker 4: This is like one Democratic strategist told me last week.
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  Speaker 4: It is money where your mouth is seasoned. And a
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  Speaker 4: lot of us are going to be tracking where the
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  Speaker 4: money is moving. And I think it's also a story
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  Speaker 4: of two different chambers on the House side. They are
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  Speaker 4: feeling obviously incredibly confident that they're not just going to
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  Speaker 4: win and flip the majority. It's a question of how
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  Speaker 4: big that majority can be. And that's why you're seeing
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  Speaker 4: Democrats project confidence in these more Trump plus 15, even
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  Speaker 4: into Trump plus 21 districts. But the question comes down
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  Speaker 4: to whether they compete. It's all about the money. And
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  Speaker 4: that's a little bit more of the problem that you're
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  Speaker 4: seeing on the Senate side as well. Right now, what
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  Speaker 4: I'm hearing from House Democratic campaign strategists is that based
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  Speaker 4: on these blockbuster numbers of both candidates and also the
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  Speaker 4: House majority pack have been able to raise in a
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  Speaker 4: quarter three. They can compete with the money that MAGA Inc.
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  Speaker 4: and other affiliate packs have been able to put in.
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  Speaker 4: through this time period.
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  Speaker 2: If MAGA Inc.
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  Speaker 4: Puts in more money, that's where they might have to
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  Speaker 4: constrain the map more. On the Senate side, it's a
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  Speaker 4: bit different. As much as we have seen, you just
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  Speaker 4: showed those numbers where Democrats are faring incredibly well. A
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  Speaker 4: conversation nobody thought we would be having at this point
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  Speaker 4: in time like a year ago. The problem is even
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  Speaker 4: in Kansas, where it's tied, we saw money moving from
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  Speaker 4: North Carolina to Kansas. $ 14 million in being placed there
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  Speaker 4: on the Republican side, Democrats still not devoting any money.
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  Speaker 4: So that is where we are seeing a bit of
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  Speaker 4: that money problem, not as much money going to Senate candidates.
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  Speaker 4: We're seeing a lot of the Democratic candidates like James Tallarico,
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  Speaker 4: who has been spending for a significant amount of time,
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  Speaker 4: now being outspent by the Republican side.
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  Speaker 3: Let me just add that Kansas, there's some independent expenditures
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  Speaker 3: happening in Kansas on the Democratic side to the tune
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  Speaker 3: of about four million dollars.
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  Speaker 2: And that's new.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah.
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  Speaker 1: And the nature of the money matters because of the
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  Speaker 1: way in which their ad sales then are priced.
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  Speaker 2: Not all money is created equal. Galen, speaking of.
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  Speaker 1: Red states, I want to focus on Texas for a
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  Speaker 1: second because Politico has some great new reporting on Ken Paxton.
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  Speaker 1: According to audio they obtained, this keeps happening during a
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  Speaker 1: fundraising event last month. Paxson said, quote, I've never been
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  Speaker 1: in a race where I felt less control over the
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  Speaker 1: campaign and like what issues are going to matter because
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  Speaker 1: it's all coming, you know, from D.C. I don't control
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  Speaker 1: message or what we're doing. It would seem he's shifting
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  Speaker 1: the blame. What do you make of what's going on here?
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  Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean, I would say that Ken Paxton is
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  Speaker 7: probably the worst candidate fielded by either the Democrats or
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  Speaker 7: the Republicans this cycle. And as much as he's correct
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  Speaker 7: that President Trump is underwater to a historic degree, you know,
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  Speaker 7: his approval rating is net negative 23 right now. That's
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  Speaker 7: worse than he was at in 2018. It's worse than
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  Speaker 7: any president in the modern polling era going into a midterms.
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  Speaker 7: But Ken Paxton himself is about, when it comes to
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  Speaker 7: approval rating, 20 percentage points underwater in Texas, a state
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  Speaker 7: that Trump won by 13 points in 2024. And that's
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  Speaker 7: largely his own doing. He was impeached by his own party.
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  Speaker 7: He's generally seen as corrupt by the median voter in Texas.
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  Speaker 7: And so in terms of the campaign that he's running,
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  Speaker 7: it's very much the bed that he's made for himself
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  Speaker 7: over the past decade or so in Texas politics.
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  Speaker 2: Speaking of bets that he has made for himself, Jason.
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  Speaker 1: This is the same race where Paxton's estranged wife is
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  Speaker 1: now appearing in ads designed to help him out, even
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  Speaker 1: though she won't.
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  Speaker 2: Actually say his name. Take a look.
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  Speaker 8: In a general election, it's not as much about the
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  Speaker 8: individual players on the team. It's about getting the whole
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  Speaker 8: team across the finish line. Either we hold every Republican
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  Speaker 8: seat or we hand the future of Texas to the
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  Speaker 8: other team. That's why I'm voting for the Republican ticket
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  Speaker 8: on November 3rd.
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  Speaker 1: I will leave it to someone younger and tech-savvier to
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  Speaker 1: me to layer in Destiny's Child on that ad. But
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  Speaker 1: just explain to me, Dr. Jason Johnson, who does that
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  Speaker 1: ad actually work with?
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  Speaker 6: It doesn't work with anybody because your first reaction was like,
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  Speaker 6: what team are you talking about?
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  Speaker 5: Who are you talking about?
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  Speaker 6: Everyone knows what she's referring to. To use the tech
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  Speaker 6: savvy term, like she's subtweeting because I still say tweet.
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  Speaker 6: She is subtweeting her ex-husband, right, who everybody knows is corrupt.
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  Speaker 6: This is actually a worse ad than if she had
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  Speaker 6: just said nothing. I personally think if I was actually
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  Speaker 6: discussing this with some strategy friends of mine, In Texas,
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  Speaker 6: this would have worked better with.
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  Speaker 5: A humorous ending.
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  Speaker 6: She said, we got to vote for the same team,
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  Speaker 6: even him.
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  Speaker 5: And people would have gotten that joke. That would have
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  Speaker 5: been her saying, hey.
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  Speaker 6: Look, I don't necessarily like the guy either, but we've got.
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  Speaker 5: To keep the Republican Party whole.
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  Speaker 6: But by pretending that she's not going to talk about
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  Speaker 6: the gigantic elephant in the room and not the Republican Party,
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  Speaker 6: but her relationship with her corrupt and cheating husband, she's
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  Speaker 6: actually made the situation worse. This is a campaign, an
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  Speaker 6: absolute free-for-all between him blaming her D.C. consultants to his
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  Speaker 6: own failures in the state. And, you know, Tallarico is
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  Speaker 6: going to be the Doug Jones of this campaign season.
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  Speaker 5: And he's the Roy Moore.
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  Speaker 1: It is an interesting dynamic that is playing out in Texas,
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  Speaker 1: because one of the things I noticed when I was
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  Speaker 1: there is voters have a baked view of Ken Paxton.
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  Speaker 1: He's not introducing himself to voters in the way that
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  Speaker 1: Tallarico is introducing himself to voters. So in some way,
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  Speaker 1: the next 29 days are more critical for Tallarico than
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  Speaker 1: they are for Ken Paxton.
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  Speaker 4: Yeah.
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  Speaker 3: I mean, he's also look, he's a mini Trump at
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  Speaker 3: a moment where Trump is as unpopular as he's ever been.
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  Speaker 1: Right.
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  Speaker 3: Trump and Paxton both survived impeachment. Both were not removed. Both,
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  Speaker 3: you know, had this kind of reputation as being really problematic.
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  Speaker 3: I thought it was interesting that ad because. you know,
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  Speaker 3: if you didn't know the story intimately and you were
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  Speaker 3: just Googling, like, why is this woman on my screen?
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  Speaker 1: Right.
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  Speaker 3: Because you have to imagine some of these people are
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  Speaker 3: not totally read in voters. They're lower propensity voters. But
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  Speaker 3: if you Google Angela Paxton, like you would get into
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  Speaker 3: the whole rabbit hole of like, you know, divorcing her
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  Speaker 3: husband on biblical grounds. And I think They're almost better
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  Speaker 3: off just not bringing that up. And in fact, there's
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  Speaker 3: also video of him being interviewed by his daughter. And
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  Speaker 3: that in it's in a weird way, his older daughter saying, like,
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  Speaker 3: you have to do what's right, which flies in the
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  Speaker 3: face of pretty much his whole biography.
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  Speaker 1: I want to talk just for a second about Latino
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  Speaker 1: voters because they're going to make a big difference in
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  Speaker 1: a bunch of places, including in Texas. There is a
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  Speaker 1: new NBC Telemundo pullout. It shows Democrats' advantage among Latino
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  Speaker 1: voters has doubled in two years from 12 points in 2024.
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  Speaker 1: to 24 points. Now, Galen, I wonder what you think
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  Speaker 1: about that polling, given that you are the numbers guy
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  Speaker 1: here and where that is likely to be most significant.
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  Speaker 7: Yeah, I think that's, of course, very significant in Texas.
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  Speaker 7: It is one of the most Latino and one of
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  Speaker 7: the youngest states in the country. And those are two
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  Speaker 7: demographic groups amongst which we've seen the biggest swings. I
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  Speaker 7: do want to you know, this is. Broadly, very good
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  Speaker 7: news for Democrats. But I do want to raise one
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  Speaker 7: note of concern for Democrats in this polling, which is
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  Speaker 7: that this improvement amongst Latino voters gets them back to
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  Speaker 7: about where they were in 2022 with Latino voters, which
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  Speaker 7: was during the presidency of an unpopular Democrat. In an
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  Speaker 7: environment where a Republican is this unpopular, you would think
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  Speaker 7: that Democrats would be able to get back to where
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  Speaker 7: they were in, say, 2016 or before during the Obama coalition.
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  Speaker 7: And they have not been able to do that, which
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  Speaker 7: I think is to say that some Latino voters that
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  Speaker 7: they've lost over the past decade are probably lost in general,
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  Speaker 7: will be much harder to get back than some of
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  Speaker 7: these quick swings, which are sort of last into the
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  Speaker 7: Trump coalition first out. And one more thing, this 2026
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  Speaker 7: coalition is not what the 2028 coalition is going to
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  Speaker 7: look like. A lot of lower propensity voters, Latino voters
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  Speaker 7: who turned out for Trump in 2024 have been screened
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  Speaker 7: out of these likely voter polls. So when you hear
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  Speaker 7: Angela Paxton saying you need to turn out and you
• 11:27
  Speaker 7: need to vote down the ticket, you need to vote
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  Speaker 7: for all the Republicans. The reason she's saying that is
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  Speaker 7: because when you look at the New York Times Siena
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  Speaker 7: College poll and Paxton is behind Tallarico by six points,
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  Speaker 7: That's all because of the likely voter differential. If you
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  Speaker 7: were to equalize and say that the people who voted
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  Speaker 7: in 2024 vote again in 2026, they would be neck
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  Speaker 7: and neck, completely tied. So while this is good news
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  Speaker 7: in the short term for Democrats, I don't think that
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  Speaker 7: there are challenges amongst Latino voters that have been sincere
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  Speaker 7: and severe over the past decade are resolved.
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  Speaker 5: Hey, it's Rachel.
• 12:00
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• 12:02
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• 12:26
  Speaker 5: Thanks.