Latest / The Scout and The Speculator / 2026 Bowman Chrome Full Season Hitter Price Check - Week 3
Transcript
- Jaba: Hello everybody. Welcome back to the Scout and the Speculator podcast. This is the third take of kicking off this episode because Jeremy must have had some sugar around lunchtime because he is ⁓ full of jokes right now. ⁓ but yeah, this is Will Jarvis, also known as Jabba Cards, joined by my aforementioned co-host, Jeremy Brown of Perfect Game Baseball. underscore_underscore_: Okay. Jaba: More importantly known as JGB underscore cards underscore. ⁓ this is our second episode of a recording of the day. We're gonna do three. We just wrapped up the DSL hitter price check. This one is going to be our ⁓ full season ball. I think there's complex guys in there too. But ⁓ yeah, it's basically five guys that are in A or high A. underscore_underscore_: Yep. Jaba: And then basically all the college names, which will likely be a fairly brief run through. ⁓ Jeremy, we got five guys here of the A and High A. ⁓ what what surprises you the most here? underscore_underscore_: Yep. We do. I'm gonna say Hundred and eighty-seven base sales of Sebastian dos Santos doesn't feel real because I feel like we didn't see his base autos or any of his autos for a while. I know that's probably a weird thing to go on. That was the first thing that caught my eye. ⁓ maybe the drop of Azakar, like already down to twenty six bucks, like he went from fifty eight to thirty six to twenty six as like a clear like top what five to ten chase in the product. That he's down that cheap. Like you put him in the DSL list and he's in your middle tier of everybody there. Where I mean, if he was if he had a different color B on his chest still now, the one that matched the uniform, like you're there's no way he's down this cheap already if he was still in the Red Sox organization. Just like we saw Juan Torres where he was holding how many times he's traded. Wandy Asijin Acogen? Assegin? Wandy. Jaba: Yeah. underscore_underscore_: With how many times he's already sold a base auto, like those are two big markets and they've held true with their sales. I th I just think if Andy was still with the Red Sox, that that twenty six wouldn't look like the hell of a deal that it is right now. Jaba: Yeah, I I'm with ya on that. I think the number would probably start with a four. ⁓ you know, I don't say that with a high degree of confidence, but like you said, there's no shot ⁓ that it's a twenty-six dollar auto. ⁓ I think the other thing that stands out to me is Sebastian dos Santos at twenty three here. I mean, we just went through all the DSL guys and basically that whole tier two, once you get outside the three big names underscore_underscore_: Yeah. 'Cause Jaba: Those guys are all sitting in kind of the sixteen to twenty five range. And I just think, you know, Sebastian dos Santos putting up a good year at single A, basically the same age as those guys, you know, I think you're kinda hoping most of those guys are able to do what he did this year next year. I think for most of those guys that would be like ⁓ you know, A minus or better outcome. underscore_underscore_: Mm-hmm. Right. Exactly. Yep. Jaba: ⁓ so I I'm just a little surprised to kind of see him falling in line there. I mean, obviously the numbers are gonna be a lot more eye popping in the DSL. ⁓ but e even still, you know, Dos Santos was good in single A. ⁓ it wasn't like a Luis Hernandez thing where it was kinda throwing him to the wolves and it went okay. You know, Dos Santos did more than hold his own. ⁓ so I I I think at twenty three underscore_underscore_: Yeah. Right. Right. Jaba: He's a buy. He's another guy where the color is not really trading off the multiple of his base. I mean, hi his blues are still going in the high mid to high 200s. ⁓ so you're looking at more of a 10 to 12x on blues for him, which is basically double, you know, the traditional multiple. ⁓ you know, if we were going off to 23, he'd probably be like 125 bucks. Wheeldare Delease, I finally learned how to underscore_underscore_: Mm-hmm. Jaba: pronounce that correctly. I figured I owed it to him with how much I'm pumping his tires. I you know, gotta get his name right. So we it's Wheeldare. Wheeldare. ⁓ Wheeldare Delease down at twenty four. Totally expected. Totally fine by me. Keep sleeping everyone. ⁓ you know, I'll see you guys in Cooperstown in ⁓ twenty fifty twenty fifty two. ⁓ got God willing. I'm more confident that he'll be there than I'll be able to make it to that. ⁓ that's how much I like this guy. Slater de Brune is completely tanked. I mean, he's really the only one that's he's the only one of these five under twenty. ⁓ next lowest is Dos Santos at twenty three ten. De Brun's at fifteen forty six. That's really low, but I get why it's low. I mean, I know we talked about this offline this morning, but you know, the ground ball rate is very high, the ISO is minuscule and he's a smaller guy, but at the same time he is a muscular guy. You know, this isn't like a you know, Chandler Simpson thing where it's like the speed's the carrying tool and you're just gonna hope that he can get on enough to utilize it. You know, this is a guy who projects to be able to do some damage at the plate. ⁓ But, you know, the parallel you drew was ⁓ Slade Caldwell in terms of physical profile. And you know, with that being said, I can definitely understand why people would be a bit wary of him kind of following in what Slade did this year. What else ⁓ what else here is standing out to you? 'Cause I I know that these are five names that we like. ⁓ underscore_underscore_: I wanna go back to ⁓ dos Santos real quick, only because he was eighteen the whole year. He turned eighteen in January. And again, I like to do this where he would have been a high school senior this year. And an A ball he hit two forty six, had fifteen more strikeouts than Walks, hit ten home runs, eight doubles, stole eighteen bases, where if he were American born he would have just been drafted. Then have some time either like at the complex, maybe the bridge league, maybe scoot him off to the AFL, though I doubt it because I think Zion Rose is one of the very few from this year's draft going to Arizona and he is a collegiate kid. So just again, I like to put that into perspective of like, ⁓ okay, like you put him stateside where he would be, like, that's really impressive. And to be able to get his base autos for twenty three dollars, like Jaba: Yeah. underscore_underscore_: Probably time to go scoop a couple and Cardinals fans do like their guys. ⁓ Jaba: Yeah. ⁓ I mean, I know for one thing, I know that people have said, and obviously you do actual, you know, showcases here, so correct me if I'm wrong, but I feel like people say that Roger Dean down in Jupiter is not great for hitters. I remember I remember seeing a tweet a few weeks ago basically saying the dimensions are too large. And, you know, with that being said, he had ten homers and fifty-five single A games. underscore_underscore_: That's big. Bit of a current card. Jaba: Yeah, the sixty strikeouts aren't great in fifty five games, but it it's not ghastly and what really stands out to me is forty-four walks. I mean, for a kid at eighteen facing full season professional pitching, to be walking like twenty percent of the time is just pretty crazy. I mean, I'm I I'm not I'm not saying he's Juan Soto. ⁓ you know underscore_underscore_: Like that. Yep. Jaba: I can't say I've watched a lot of video of him, so I don't want to make any kind of proclamations without doing so, but I I mean that that's just so many walks. ⁓ you know, I I think it generally again, correct me if I'm wrong, I'm kinda getting into your lane here. I think that shows, you know, a mature approach and obviously with the strikeouts being high underscore_underscore_: Mm-hmm. Jaba: you feel a lot less worried about the high Ks when the walk rate's high because at least to me it means, you know, he's not just swinging at everything. You know, maybe it's a hole in his swing or something, and all of those things are a lot more fixable than, you know, a Javi Baez who's just going up there with a blindfold on. Yeah. underscore_underscore_: Right. Right. Like if anything he's too passive right now. You could point to that, like, ⁓ he's he's working pitch counts, he's but you also at those lower levels, you don't know sometimes what the directive is. Like somebody in the system could be telling him, like, hey, go up there and see three pitches before swinging. Like you don't know what they're working on. Things like that do happen. Where you just want him to get more comfortable with pitch recognition, seeing things. But maybe he's being too patient to a fault when you have that many walks, but he's eighteen. Like you just have to keep hammering that point home and like it all comes back to like, Yeah, we'll let that slide. Like we're good. Like, don't worry about it. ⁓ Jaba: Yeah. And la la last thing to wrap there, I know a lot of people have started using kind of K rate minus walk rate for pitchers to kind of figure out You know, okay, well is it kinda a wild strikeout guy or is this a guy who's striking guys out and has, you know, serious command? Kinda reversing it here, I mean, yeah, the ki the K rate's only twenty three and a half, which is a lot better than I would have thought. ⁓ given it's more than one a game. You know, that's kinda perfectly average and the walk rate's seventeen point three percent. So I mean, like you said, he's just being passive. I mean, forty percent of the time when he goes up there he walks or strikes out, trying to find his swing rates here on fangrafts. Yeah, I mean he swings forty one percent of the time. ⁓ only at twenty percent of pitches out of the zone. when he swings in the zone he's making contact in eighty six percent of pitches, which is okay. you know like you said, I think it's an interesting point you made. ⁓ that a lot of people, including myself, either don't know or wouldn't even think about. Which, you know, you don't know what directive these guys are getting. You know, I would have never really thought that they would say, Hey, you know, take maybe not maybe they're not saying, Hey, take two strikes, but you know, take take a couple pitches, you know, we want to see you in deep counts. you know, and that's where it's different, obviously. In the majors it's like, okay, go put up the best results possible, but in the minors it's, you know, not fully results based and more about the process. So I think, you know, it those Santos really, the more I look into ⁓ the more I like And you underscore_underscore_: Mm. Jaba: five minutes I've kinda done our our patented move here where I really talk myself into a guy. So I think if anything the takeaway here is that Dos Santos is good. underscore_underscore_: I mean I mean, all that, like, on the face of it for what it is, he's got a four ⁓ nine on base percentage and ⁓ eight ninety two OPS is an eighteen year old with two thirds of his playing time at the single A level. So that's Jaba: He also pulls the ball more than half the time. ⁓ fly ball rate. Pretty good. I mean the ground ball rate's down at thirty seven. It actually went down to thirty five in just single A. So I mean he's hitting a fly ball or a line drive sixty four percent of the time and he's pulling the ball fifty four percent of the time. And especially with these guys that, you know, were looking for them to tap into power. I mean, seeing them put the ball in the air is on the pull side is the best way to optimize that. And I mean again, fangraf size and is six foot a hundred and forty pounds. ⁓ ⁓ you know, it's like he's basically optimized his power and if he can put on, you know, a bunch of muscle, you know, the swing's there, the approach is there, and you know, he's actually getting fine results there now. And if he gets big, you know, watch out. And he's a switch hitter, that's fun. But ⁓ yeah, I underscore_underscore_: Sort of pipeline. Yep. Those are always good. Like a real switch hitter too. I think more power, I believe, from the left side, but like which makes sense because that's where most of your reps are coming from. But overall I think it's like a real ⁓ a real ⁓ switch hit, not just ⁓ I can switch it and you're like terrible from one side. So I said from one side. Jaba: Ronnie Maritz yo. Yeah. ⁓ Okay. That's he went nuts. He hit three homers in the last two days of the season. So people might have The ⁓ that's hilarious. Fangrafs, I guess this was back in a few months ago, but Fangraves had Dos Santos as the number fifty seven guy in the organization. nailed it, guys. underscore_underscore_: Good. Hmm. I know people were I know people were on him last year too, as like a guy coming out of the DSL ⁓ already, so that's kind of interesting to h be that low in the org. Jaba: Yeah, they had him ⁓ Jeez. Yeah, he he's like nowhere to be found. ⁓ so that's crazy. Anyhow, we got ten college hitters. I don't even think anybody cares if we go into them. I guess it's not all college hit hitters, it's also just older international guys. ⁓ Anthony Martinez, our boy, down to four thirty-seven. The only two guys above twenty bucks are Lotis and Ayers, which I think makes sense. ⁓ Lotis Yeah. Lotis kinda had the typical cut in half auto price between underscore_underscore_: Those are the two you would have thought like Jaba: Week one and week two, he went fifty eight down to twenty seven. He's actually rebounded to thirty two. ⁓ but yeah, I mean some of these guys, Anthony Martinez week one thirty-seven, week two five, week three, four. You know, these guys have really tanked. Another guy, I know Bob, ⁓ called out Randy Guzman. He's gone from twenty to nine to seven in change. Another one that's just you know, I like that he's a Matt. underscore_underscore_: Mm-hmm. Jaba: I'm not sure that seven sixty's a great deal, but you know, I think it's an interesting guy. And your boy AOA saw a rebound as well. underscore_underscore_: Yeah. AOA's the only one who's kind of bounced up. But like it also does well, Brandon Buttersworth looks like he went up a couple bucks up to a seven dollar base auto, which maybe it's just people buying on AFL or there was maybe one bad sale high. Like the AOA doesn't make sense because like a true orange last night ended at a buck fifty-two. Which like I fell asleep during or I probably should have just bought that. Like a true orange auto sold for one fifty-two. Jaba: Yeah. underscore_underscore_: And a black X Fractor sold for one ninety five last night. It's like his number his his numbers aren't the greatest. ⁓ that gold Andre Hidalgo ended at one thirty three. FYI. We're moving the market Just kidding guys. ⁓ Yeah, that AOA being the only one up kind of also doesn't surprise when I mean the other names on the list you have Anthony Martinez who just keeps scooping him and we'll just hold him and let it play out. Jaba: Yeah. Dang at that. underscore_underscore_: Austin Overn's down to like an affordable price of twelve dollars and fifty nine cents. Kind of a speed guy with some results. Older. Yeah. Wyatt Vincent sub five bucks. Yep. Wyatt Vincent sub five bucks. Randy Guzman's tiptoeing there. Alejandro Nunez is the price of an iced coffee, as is Brendan Jones. And Jaba: I kinda like him. I just worry as a older Ray, you know, no one's gonna care. underscore_underscore_: Yeah, I mean Brandon Buttersworth is about three snack wa ⁓ three ⁓ wake up reps at Duncan, so we're gonna start just putting everything on Dunkin Donuts comparisons. Jaba: Alejandro Nunez, you can buy two bases for a Starbucks. underscore_underscore_: Yep. Depending on how how ⁓ pinky out you are. Jaba: Yeah, exactly. I think ⁓ I like Wyatt Vinton sub five. I'd like to get some of that. You know, Anthony Martinez, sub five, we like that. ⁓ Nunez, Jones, and Buttersworth, I think we're both, you know, all set on. And ⁓ yeah, I mean I think that's really it. I think Lodis is a surprise leading the way. He's probably the best he's probably the best of these guys, and he's a brave. underscore_underscore_: Yeah. Lodius also is And he's the only Brave Auto too, so they didn't have much else to chase as a fan. I know w at open his base were around seventy-five bucks. ⁓ Ayers is just that older triple A, ⁓ blew up in the AFL. Wouldn't be surprised if Boston Smith kind of follows that suit. Like catcher had a good year, gonna have a good AFL, doesn't have a Bowman card. Jaba: Yeah. underscore_underscore_: Gonna probably probably be one release, maybe two releases too late, because Boston's not gonna be obviously in Bowman draft. So assume he will have a twenty twenty seven Bowman alongside Grady Emerson. ⁓ yeah, I don't think there's a whole lot else here to ⁓ slap the tree and hope an apple falls on our head. Jaba: Yeah. ⁓ I I will say I think twenty seven Bowman between ⁓ Yostin Pena, Grady Emerson, you know, whatever other draft holdouts there are, that could be a ⁓ underscore_underscore_: I wouldn't doubt I wonder if Yosin will be held out for twenty seven chrome though. You think? Jaba: He I think he played enough at single A where they can't I mean they they can do they can and will do whatever they want, but I think it's like Florentino last year where it was like, ⁓ okay, well he played in single A. We we kinda have to. And, you know, I'm hoping the twenty seven chrome or twenty seven Bowman's great. So I mean twenty five Bowman was really my first one getting back into it, and that was obviously Made, Luis Pena, McGonagall, underscore_underscore_: Maybe, yeah. Right. That's true. Yeah, that's fair. Mm-hmm. Weather hole. Jaba: Weatherholt. That was a great release and twenty six Bowman was pretty awful. I mean, I still really like Florentino. ⁓ but you know underscore_underscore_: Mm-hmm. Ethan Holliday got hurt right away, so that hurt that like market right away. Like quickly. Jaba: Yeah, I mean I I I'm I'm trying to think of other hitters and the only name that I can think of is Kendry Churio who's a pitcher. ⁓ but yeah. That's ⁓ I think once we get talking about this we can cut the episode. ⁓ thank you all for listening as always. ⁓ really means the world to us. And ⁓ don't be a stranger on social media. We're always happy to talk cards, baseball, and ⁓ Jeremy enjoys talking about life insurance policies. Just kidding. ⁓ all right. Thank you guys all for listening, and ⁓ let's go Matt. See you guys.