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Reinventing Germany's Economy · Trumponomics

0:03
Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to Stephanomics, the podcast that brings the
0:06
Speaker 1: global economy to you. The Germans make everything difficult for
0:16
Speaker 1: themselves and for everyone else, so said Geta, the great
0:21
Speaker 1: German poet, whether it's producing cars or managing their public finances,
0:26
Speaker 1: Germany holds itself to very high standards and expects others
0:30
Speaker 1: to do the same. That's made things tough for businesses
0:34
Speaker 1: trying to compete with German exports. President Trump, we know,
0:37
Speaker 1: gets very cross with a number of German cars on
0:40
Speaker 1: American streets. But it's worked up very well for the Germans,
0:44
Speaker 1: or it has until recently. Now that famous German model
0:48
Speaker 1: is being questioned inside and outside of Germany. I'm going
0:52
Speaker 1: to talk about it with Bloomberg Star economic columnist Ferdinando
0:55
Speaker 1: Giuliano in a minute. I'm also going to catch up
0:59
Speaker 1: with the Frankfurt team on Germany's chances of running the
1:02
Speaker 1: European Central Bank. But First, Eurozone Economy reporter Catherine Boseley
1:07
Speaker 1: has this report. She starts with a blast from the
1:10
Speaker 1: past that's going to really irritate President Trump. Have you
1:35
Speaker 1: ever wondered how the man who drives a snowplow drives
1:39
Speaker 1: to the snowplow. This one drives a Volkswagen, so you
1:49
Speaker 1: can stop wondering. That's a classic folks Fang TV commercial
1:53
Speaker 1: from nine. It reminds us that throughout the decades, one
1:58
Speaker 1: thing has remained constant out Germany's economy engineering prowess. After all,
2:05
Speaker 1: it was here that the first combustion engine vehicle was
2:08
Speaker 1: invented more than a century ago. Today the country is
2:12
Speaker 1: synonymous with famous brands like Poikeswagen, Mercedes and Zemens in
2:16
Speaker 1: manufacturing accounts for over twenty of the economy. Old school
2:22
Speaker 1: engineering for export has been Germany's recipe for success until now,
2:26
Speaker 1: so much so that the country's trade surplus in dollar
2:30
Speaker 1: terms is second only to China's among major economies. Now
2:37
Speaker 1: that model is under threat thanks to today's reality of
2:40
Speaker 1: protectionism and slowing global growth. Add to that factors like
2:46
Speaker 1: Germany's aging population and creaky infrastructure due to years of
2:50
Speaker 1: under investment, and you've got a big question mark hanging
2:53
Speaker 1: over an economy that for years has been Europe's powerhouse. Yah.
3:04
Speaker 1: These are the sounds of the factory floor at a
3:07
Speaker 1: b M, perhaps a company I recently visited in Wolfing
3:11
Speaker 1: In in the rolling hills of southern Germany. It has
3:15
Speaker 1: got fifteen thousand employees and factories from the Black Forest
3:19
Speaker 1: region nearby all the way to China. The company makes
3:24
Speaker 1: motors and fans. Some are for building ventilation systems or trains,
3:30
Speaker 1: while others are used to cool the electrical systems in
3:33
Speaker 1: cars or even help keep seats comfortable so you don't
3:37
Speaker 1: sweat when you're driving a b M perhaps. CEO Stefan
3:41
Speaker 1: Brande said his business is doing okay thanks to its
3:45
Speaker 1: focus on energy efficiency, but he's well aware of issues
3:49
Speaker 1: that the whole factory sector is facing, especially if you
3:53
Speaker 1: are living in a kind of a remote area like
3:55
Speaker 1: we are here in wolfing in Um. Certainly there is
3:59
Speaker 1: a big chair lynch on getting skilled workers for our
4:04
Speaker 1: different manufacturing parts of our business, and then of course
4:10
Speaker 1: also a digitalization if it is concerned. There is also
4:15
Speaker 1: an infrastructure in Germany which in my opinion is absolutely
4:19
Speaker 1: not appropriate. Car makers in particular are in for a
4:23
Speaker 1: big shift because engines are going electric. Folkswagen has hatched
4:29
Speaker 1: the most aggressive electric car plans in the auto industry. Well,
4:33
Speaker 1: BMW and Diamela are emerging their car sharing services to
4:37
Speaker 1: tackle the likes of Uber. The automotive sector is investing
4:43
Speaker 1: sixty billion euros or about sixty seven billion dollars over
4:48
Speaker 1: the next three years an electric cars and automated driving,
4:51
Speaker 1: according to v d A and Industry Association. Unfortunately, the
4:57
Speaker 1: most profitable segments and the most profitable models are precisely
5:02
Speaker 1: the ones which will generate the biggest problems in our
5:04
Speaker 1: regulatory sense, because they're going to be high emission petrol
5:07
Speaker 1: and diesel cars. That's Peter Wells, a professor at Cardiff
5:10
Speaker 1: Business School in the UK who studies global auto manufacturing
5:15
Speaker 1: and the trouble therefore that the industry faces over the
5:17
Speaker 1: next two or three years is the looming threat of
5:20
Speaker 1: government regulation EU regulation on CEO two emissions, which is
5:24
Speaker 1: going to make it very very difficult for them to
5:27
Speaker 1: continue to generate profits whilst investing heavily into these new technologies. YEA,
5:36
Speaker 1: the strains on the economy are undeniable. Manufacturing and exports
5:41
Speaker 1: play a much greater role for Germany the neighboring France.
5:44
Speaker 1: For example, growth in is forecast to be the weakest
5:49
Speaker 1: in six years. According to Economy Minister Peter Atmeyer, the
5:55
Speaker 1: economy's current soft patch is a wake up car, but
5:59
Speaker 1: the problems are to some degree homemade, with the German
6:02
Speaker 1: government for years focusing on reducing debt rather than investing
6:06
Speaker 1: in the future. At least that's the view of Adam Posen,
6:10
Speaker 1: who has studied Germany extensively and is president of the
6:14
Speaker 1: Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. There's been a
6:19
Speaker 1: complete shortfall of investment, first private sector, but in recent
6:24
Speaker 1: years public investment. And this is marked that an economy
6:30
Speaker 1: which is doing so well in terms of employment, in
6:33
Speaker 1: terms of generating surpluses, is not finding uses for all
6:37
Speaker 1: the capital it throws off, at least not at home.
6:41
Speaker 1: And the under investment by the public sector is stands
6:45
Speaker 1: out and is a choice, and it's frankly a bad choice.
6:49
Speaker 1: It's showing up now in the power grid, it's showing
6:52
Speaker 1: up now in transportation, it's showing up in the schools.
6:57
Speaker 1: When I lived in Germany in the early nineties and
6:59
Speaker 1: used to go back and forth all the time, you know,
7:02
Speaker 1: one thing you could count on was the punctuality of
7:04
Speaker 1: German trains and planes, and now that's not there. This
7:14
Speaker 1: past winter is the government in Berlin proposed an industrial
7:17
Speaker 1: strategy in response to fears that Germany will get squeezed
7:22
Speaker 1: by the US and China as the global economy shifts
7:25
Speaker 1: to new technologies. The program calls for defending the country's
7:29
Speaker 1: leadership and key sectors like metals and machinery, and investing
7:33
Speaker 1: in technologies such as artificial intelligence, which the report calls
7:38
Speaker 1: likely the best important development since the steam engine. In
7:42
Speaker 1: Posen's eyes, this plan is a non starter. Where Germany
7:47
Speaker 1: really needs is better use of available labor, the regulation
7:50
Speaker 1: of its service sector, and infrastructure investment. He says, just
7:56
Speaker 1: invest a few percent more of GDP at home and
8:00
Speaker 1: thanks that matter for German well being and that will
8:02
Speaker 1: live about. My colleague Chris Writer in Berlin spoke to
8:07
Speaker 1: labor union I GAMETI, which has two point two million members.
8:11
Speaker 1: They say not enough is being done to help retrain
8:14
Speaker 1: older workers for evolving jobs, and have scheduled a demonstration
8:18
Speaker 1: in June to highlight their predicament. Let's hear from board
8:22
Speaker 1: member oven Mine hearts all our members will be affected
8:26
Speaker 1: in the one kind or the other today or tomorrow.
8:30
Speaker 1: Everyone will be affected of this transformation, digitalization, of electrifying
8:36
Speaker 1: in the automotive industry and other transformations. Nothing will rest
8:43
Speaker 1: as it is today, So we have to face these
8:49
Speaker 1: huge dimension of transformation. So that's the problem that many
8:57
Speaker 1: employees as well as many managers just want circumstances to
9:02
Speaker 1: stay as they are now won't work. Who refuses the
9:07
Speaker 1: change today might be jobless tomorrow. The Union is calling
9:13
Speaker 1: for Germany's notoriously tight fisted government to increase investment in
9:17
Speaker 1: physical and digital infrastructure and training employees for the skills
9:21
Speaker 1: and jobs of tomorrow. Still, Germany has a long track
9:26
Speaker 1: record of adapting. It emerged from the ashes of World
9:29
Speaker 1: War Two to become Europe's leading economy, and the integration
9:33
Speaker 1: of the Communist East after the fall of the Berlin
9:36
Speaker 1: Wall has largely been successful. Germany's labor forces skilled in
9:41
Speaker 1: its education system includes several institutions of international renown. Ultimately,
9:51
Speaker 1: it may be a question of both economics and politics
9:54
Speaker 1: for the government in Berlin. Germany's industrial sector may simply
9:58
Speaker 1: be too big to fail. The uncertainty has filtered through
10:03
Speaker 1: to voters already, is one can see from the rise
10:05
Speaker 1: of the populist a f D party and will definitely
10:09
Speaker 1: preoccupy whoever succeeds the active as chancellor. Here's how Peter
10:15
Speaker 1: Wells of Cardiff Business Squad put it. The transition I
10:18
Speaker 1: think has to happen at a manufacturing level first and foremost,
10:21
Speaker 1: and we're beginning to see that companies like Volkswagen are
10:24
Speaker 1: investing heavily in industry four point zero and related themes.
10:29
Speaker 1: If they can do that, then there's a chance that
10:32
Speaker 1: they can push productivity much much higher, and that will
10:35
Speaker 1: enable them to continue to survive as manufacturers in a
10:38
Speaker 1: high class location. But of course there is a downside,
10:41
Speaker 1: and that downside is reduced jobs. Companies like Volkswagen are
10:45
Speaker 1: already talking about taking headcamp out of their manufacturing operations,
10:50
Speaker 1: and that reduces their bargaining for politically. So it's a
10:54
Speaker 1: very difficult place to be in right now. And Katherine
10:58
Speaker 1: Boseley for bloomdern this now I'm very glad to say.
11:06
Speaker 1: I'm now joined down the line by Ferdinando Giuliano, the
11:10
Speaker 1: Bloomberg economic columnist. Ferdinando, you and I have been around
11:15
Speaker 1: in economics for long enough to know that there's these
11:19
Speaker 1: We often have rounds of questioning about the German model.
11:23
Speaker 1: You know, I remember in the nineties there was talk
11:27
Speaker 1: of the sick man of Europe being Germany. Do you
11:30
Speaker 1: think this is a real this round of questioning is
11:34
Speaker 1: really serious or is it just a little bit of angst. Well,
11:37
Speaker 1: I think it is pretty serious. I mean you've mentioned
11:41
Speaker 1: what happened at the end of the nineties. I think
11:43
Speaker 1: that was certainly more serious, and that's why the government
11:46
Speaker 1: of getting shure they introduced a number of very important
11:49
Speaker 1: labor market reforms which really helped growth in the coming
11:53
Speaker 1: decade and more. But I think, and I think at
11:56
Speaker 1: this stage where there are still more question marks than answers.
11:59
Speaker 1: I mean, as we know, the German economy has been
12:01
Speaker 1: slowing quite sharply at the end of last year, in
12:04
Speaker 1: the second half there was nearly fell into a technical recession.
12:08
Speaker 1: Is now bounced back in the first quarter of this
12:11
Speaker 1: year by growing by not point four percent on a
12:13
Speaker 1: quarterly basis. But I think there are still some questions
12:16
Speaker 1: over really the long term future of the country, and
12:20
Speaker 1: some of the question marks are actually pretty striking. I mean,
12:24
Speaker 1: one has obviously got to do with trade. The other
12:27
Speaker 1: one is the future of the car industry, and then
12:29
Speaker 1: there is the issue of the banking industry, which is
12:31
Speaker 1: really uh come back to the fore. After the failed
12:35
Speaker 1: merger between Commerce Bank and Deutsche Bank, so a number
12:39
Speaker 1: of question marks there for the politicians, not yet dramatic,
12:43
Speaker 1: but you know they still need to come up. They
12:45
Speaker 1: need to come up with some answers pretty quickly, I think.
12:48
Speaker 1: And do you see and mean we have a government
12:50
Speaker 1: that's got a little bit different complexion now, at least
12:54
Speaker 1: for those of us looking at the economic policies. We
12:56
Speaker 1: have a finance minister, all of shul Suits has is
12:59
Speaker 1: of a different character from his predecessor, who was what
13:03
Speaker 1: you might call a very characteristic in his economic policies.
13:07
Speaker 1: You know, he was the one Wolfgang Scheibler who would
13:10
Speaker 1: was didn't really believe in Greece being in the Eurozone
13:15
Speaker 1: and gave it a really tough time during the Eurozone crisis.
13:18
Speaker 1: You know, it was associated with a loss of those
13:21
Speaker 1: policies that we do associate with Germany, you know, tough
13:24
Speaker 1: fiscal policy and still wanting to have that very strong
13:28
Speaker 1: export performance and a reluctance to have a lot more
13:31
Speaker 1: public investment, something that was highlighted by Catherine in that piece.
13:34
Speaker 1: Do you see with this different finance minister, a slightly
13:37
Speaker 1: different government that we will have there's a more of
13:41
Speaker 1: an openness to this kind of change, like more public
13:43
Speaker 1: investment for example. Well, I think we've seen a little
13:46
Speaker 1: bit of a shift, to be honest, to the fiscal
13:49
Speaker 1: policies turned mildly expansionary over the last a few months.
13:53
Speaker 1: But there are still, you know, big questions. I mean,
13:55
Speaker 1: if you have a slowing economy and you are running
13:58
Speaker 1: a budget surplus, your debt is very low, and actually
14:03
Speaker 1: investors are willing to give you money at negative nominal rates,
14:07
Speaker 1: why why are you not investing more? I think these
14:09
Speaker 1: questions are still there. What's interesting is that, I think
14:12
Speaker 1: is that debate. The debate is starting to shift a
14:15
Speaker 1: little bit precisely because the economy is not doing so well.
14:18
Speaker 1: I mean, it's all well and good to kind of
14:21
Speaker 1: run a very tight fiscal policy if the economy is
14:24
Speaker 1: still growing. I mean, of course it could be growing more.
14:26
Speaker 1: Your productivity could be boosted by more public investment. But
14:30
Speaker 1: you know, it's harder to make a public case for
14:33
Speaker 1: more spending at this juncture. I think it's harder to
14:35
Speaker 1: sustain the physical you know, the case for physical discipline
14:40
Speaker 1: at the moment. So I think that that change in
14:42
Speaker 1: the debate is very very interesting. Now, of course, all
14:46
Speaker 1: of shots on his own does not mean very much
14:51
Speaker 1: because clearly, you know, we need to understand what's going
14:55
Speaker 1: through the mind of a k K, the successor to
14:58
Speaker 1: Angela Merkel, who's going through a difficult period to establish herself,
15:02
Speaker 1: and we don't really know what her economic policy thinking
15:06
Speaker 1: is deep down. So I think there are still a question.
15:10
Speaker 1: I would like to add one more thing. Yes, all
15:11
Speaker 1: of Shorts has been a good shift in terms brought
15:15
Speaker 1: a good shift in terms of fiscal policy. There is
15:17
Speaker 1: stuff going on in terms of industrial policy and banking
15:21
Speaker 1: policy which I think is a little bit more suspicious.
15:24
Speaker 1: German is going back to the kind of go the
15:26
Speaker 1: old way, you know, to the kind of marrying the
15:29
Speaker 1: French approach to industrial policy, gains competition policy. All of
15:33
Speaker 1: Shorts was a supporter of this national champion idea in
15:36
Speaker 1: the banking industry. While all of that is something which
15:38
Speaker 1: I think as an economist I'm quite worried about, you know,
15:43
Speaker 1: when you step back from these debates, and obviously we
15:46
Speaker 1: look at what happens to German GDP, you know week
15:48
Speaker 1: to week or months to month, of course to course,
15:51
Speaker 1: but over the years Germany has often been criticized for
15:57
Speaker 1: being a bit too successful exports in not saving too much.
16:02
Speaker 1: It's household save save too much, not taking enough risks,
16:06
Speaker 1: and these all have a field of being pretty long
16:09
Speaker 1: term characteristics of Germany. Is what's what's the odds of
16:12
Speaker 1: it really changing? I mean, it's always been said. I
16:14
Speaker 1: think that the German people, German households spend more on
16:18
Speaker 1: flowers every year than they do on shares. You know,
16:20
Speaker 1: is that really going to change? Well, I think what's
16:24
Speaker 1: changing is the landscape. I mean you were talking about
16:27
Speaker 1: the trading surpluses which Germany has been recording throughout the years,
16:31
Speaker 1: and the model which is really based on experts. I mean,
16:35
Speaker 1: what's changing is the landscape. What we have is this
16:38
Speaker 1: now this you know not even not no longer a
16:40
Speaker 1: trade skirmish, but then outright trade war. It would see
16:43
Speaker 1: in between the US and China, the US is being
16:46
Speaker 1: very confrontational with with Europe, threatening to slap tarifts on cars,
16:53
Speaker 1: which is Germany by the way. So I think in
16:56
Speaker 1: this shifting landscape where globalization is at risk, global commerce
17:00
Speaker 1: is at risk, the model which Germany has um you know,
17:05
Speaker 1: established and which has been you know to be fair
17:07
Speaker 1: very successful over the past few years of rising globalization
17:12
Speaker 1: and you know, strong Boord trade is increasingly at risk.
17:17
Speaker 1: And so even though you know us as some you
17:21
Speaker 1: know as as economists have been doubtful of this model
17:25
Speaker 1: for some time, but you know, the kind of the
17:27
Speaker 1: man on the street wasn't really seeing the problem with
17:30
Speaker 1: it because you know, after all, unemployment was very low
17:33
Speaker 1: and the economy is doing fine. But now that these
17:37
Speaker 1: risks are rising and are actually there present and are
17:41
Speaker 1: taking a hit on economic growth, I think politicians will
17:44
Speaker 1: start asking themselves some hard questions because hey, you know,
17:48
Speaker 1: maybe Donald Trump will disappear in a few years and
17:52
Speaker 1: we will go back to the good old days of globalization.
17:55
Speaker 1: But what if we don't, How will Germany keep growing?
17:59
Speaker 1: How will keep giving prosperity to its people. That's a
18:02
Speaker 1: real question which politicians need to ask themselves. And Germany
18:06
Speaker 1: has been so dominant in Europe, in the Eurozone over
18:10
Speaker 1: the last ten twenty years. What does it mean for
18:13
Speaker 1: Europe if it's now going through a phase of being
18:16
Speaker 1: on the defensive and a bit insecure and its economic
18:20
Speaker 1: model well, I think, paradoxically, from a certain point of view,
18:24
Speaker 1: and it's slightly weaker, German economy could be interesting from
18:30
Speaker 1: a political point of view, because it may make Germany
18:34
Speaker 1: a little bit more understanding towards some form of expansionary policies,
18:39
Speaker 1: especially fiscal policies, which Germany has traditionally been skeptical of.
18:44
Speaker 1: I mean, we've heard many times you're confirming some of
18:47
Speaker 1: the paranoia that the Germans themselves have that the other
18:49
Speaker 1: countries are just willing for them to fail. When you
18:52
Speaker 1: say that, oh yes, I mean I think, you know,
18:54
Speaker 1: I was more thinking about their their own domestic policy
18:57
Speaker 1: and the repercussions for the for the EU. In terms
19:00
Speaker 1: of the broader debate, I mean, frankly, it's been stuck
19:05
Speaker 1: for you know, at least a year and a half now.
19:08
Speaker 1: I mean, after the election of President Emmanuel Mcron and
19:12
Speaker 1: the idea that there would be a grand bargain between
19:14
Speaker 1: France and Germany, there was some enthusiasm about the reform
19:18
Speaker 1: of the Eurozone and making sure that those are the
19:21
Speaker 1: building blocks, especially for example, in setting up some form
19:25
Speaker 1: of joint fiscal capacity or completing the banking union project,
19:30
Speaker 1: which has been advancing for some time. And then it's
19:32
Speaker 1: tolled where there was hope that this could happen, but
19:35
Speaker 1: at the moment everything has tolled and I suspect that
19:39
Speaker 1: the rise of some populist governments, for example in Italy,
19:43
Speaker 1: which you know, are taking very irresponsible attitude towards economic
19:48
Speaker 1: policy making, is going to make the German public just
19:53
Speaker 1: more defensive. And another big question I think is over
19:57
Speaker 1: the European Central Bank. Mario Dragging has been and extraordinarily effective,
20:02
Speaker 1: not just in implementing policy, but also in selling it
20:05
Speaker 1: to the German politicians, especially Angela Mercle. But we now
20:09
Speaker 1: his term is coming. We know his term is coming
20:11
Speaker 1: to an end at the end of October. Who will
20:13
Speaker 1: replace him? And will this person be just as effective
20:17
Speaker 1: in terms of making the easyb you know, a powerful
20:20
Speaker 1: tool in fighting slowdowns recessions. Or are we going back
20:25
Speaker 1: to less effective presidents? This is another big questions And
20:31
Speaker 1: of course you know Yains Vitman, the president of the Bundesbank,
20:33
Speaker 1: is one of the leading candidates. So will we see
20:36
Speaker 1: a more Germanic monetary policy in the Eurozone and what
20:41
Speaker 1: what would that mean for for the currency union? You know,
20:44
Speaker 1: this is this is a big doubt which I think
20:48
Speaker 1: many investors would want to ponder on well. And I'm
20:51
Speaker 1: very glad you mentioned that. For another because I'm going
20:54
Speaker 1: to be talking about that in a second, getting the
20:56
Speaker 1: latest on that horse race to run the European Central Bank.
21:00
Speaker 1: Just after talking to you, But ferdinandod and thank you
21:04
Speaker 1: very much for sharing your thoughts. Thank you well. I
21:13
Speaker 1: mentioned with Fernando there the battle to see who's going
21:18
Speaker 1: to replace Mario drag the Italian who has been running
21:22
Speaker 1: the European Central Bank for the last eight years, and
21:25
Speaker 1: I wanted to check in with Paul Gordon, who runs
21:27
Speaker 1: our central bank team out of Frankfurt on it. Paul,
21:31
Speaker 1: the Germany's never had one of its nationals run the
21:36
Speaker 1: European Central Bank. Is this sits moment? Well, the head
21:41
Speaker 1: of the bonders Bank, Ends Viedman, is a contender, but
21:44
Speaker 1: it is very wide open field, wider than we've ever seen. Really.
21:48
Speaker 1: He's up against, at least according to our surveys to Frenchmen,
21:52
Speaker 1: the head of the French Central Bank and the and
21:55
Speaker 1: one of the executive board members, and two Finns the
21:58
Speaker 1: current ahead of the Finnish Central Bank and form ahead
22:00
Speaker 1: of the Finnish Central Bank. It's very hard at this
22:02
Speaker 1: point to see whether Germany will have what it takes
22:05
Speaker 1: to win the political support to get you inspiber And
22:08
Speaker 1: into the position. Now, if you're an outsider looking at
22:12
Speaker 1: the Ourizon, particularly if you're in sitting working in the
22:15
Speaker 1: financial markets in New York, say, what you really care
22:18
Speaker 1: about who runs the European Central Bank is whether they'll
22:21
Speaker 1: support growth in Europe and whether they'll be able to
22:23
Speaker 1: do the right thing in a crisis. Is there any
22:25
Speaker 1: chance that the right person is going to be in
22:27
Speaker 1: the job for either of those things or that is
22:29
Speaker 1: where the German nomination should the inspiber and be That
22:34
Speaker 1: nominee is potentially the problem because Vibraan has been an
22:37
Speaker 1: opponent of a lot of the CBS crisis era measures
22:42
Speaker 1: in the past. You have to remember that Mario Draggy,
22:44
Speaker 1: although he was something of a controversial candidate when he
22:47
Speaker 1: came in eight years ago, pledged in twenty twelve to
22:50
Speaker 1: do whatever it takes and the market believed him, and
22:53
Speaker 1: he's continued to make these pledges and to come up
22:57
Speaker 1: with fairly original measures in order to try to get
22:59
Speaker 1: him inflation back on track. It's not there yet and
23:02
Speaker 1: the economy is showing signs of stuttering. So you have
23:06
Speaker 1: to wonder whether the next ECB president, if they haven't
23:09
Speaker 1: supported some of those measures as vibe and hasn't will
23:12
Speaker 1: have the credibility to get the job done. And the
23:15
Speaker 1: credibility matters. It has an impact on the markets, that
23:18
Speaker 1: has an impact on inflation expectations. So that's the biggest
23:21
Speaker 1: challenge for Germany. One has to say, and you've mentioned
23:25
Speaker 1: there some of those sort of key phrases that came
23:27
Speaker 1: out of Marrow drugging. I mean, is that why it
23:30
Speaker 1: does really matter who runs this organization? It's not you know,
23:34
Speaker 1: some people will say, well, it's just one vote or
23:37
Speaker 1: men of many on the council. It doesn't doesn't matter
23:40
Speaker 1: who's in that job. It matters how the council vote
23:43
Speaker 1: goes goes. But then if we look at something like
23:45
Speaker 1: the FED, we know that, you know, it does matter
23:47
Speaker 1: who's chairman of the Fed, even though technically the FED
23:50
Speaker 1: chair only has one vote. Is that also the case
23:53
Speaker 1: in the European Central Bank? I mean, remember we've got
23:55
Speaker 1: a lot of countries represented around the table. It's not
23:57
Speaker 1: just those regional banks that you have represented in the US, No,
24:01
Speaker 1: I mean the the the governing council chamber in the
24:04
Speaker 1: European Central Bank is a very crowded place. There are
24:07
Speaker 1: twenty five policy makers, nineteen central bank governors, six board members.
24:12
Speaker 1: But the board does have undue influence, if you like,
24:16
Speaker 1: it has much more influence than the others. Yes, there's
24:18
Speaker 1: one vote per person doesn't normally come to a vote
24:21
Speaker 1: in the governing Council. A consensus is reached and that
24:24
Speaker 1: consensus is heavily swayed by whatever proposal the executive boarders
24:29
Speaker 1: put on the table for everyone to discuss. So the President,
24:32
Speaker 1: as one of those board members, matters. So does the
24:34
Speaker 1: Chief Economists that currently is Peter Prett, but that changes
24:38
Speaker 1: as well as a first of June Philip Lane of
24:40
Speaker 1: Ireland will come in. And also another influential figure is
24:43
Speaker 1: Benoir Currey. He's the head of market Operations. He leaves
24:46
Speaker 1: at the end of the year, though as I say,
24:48
Speaker 1: he is potentially one of the contenders to replace Mario Draggy,
24:51
Speaker 1: so it's not really one vote per person. It doesn't
24:54
Speaker 1: quite work that way. Well, and you've mentioned something that
24:57
Speaker 1: I think we're going to come back to in the
24:58
Speaker 1: next few weeks on the podcast, the fact that you've
25:01
Speaker 1: got so many senior jobs changing hands in Europe. Three
25:05
Speaker 1: of the key European central bank jobs changing hands in
25:08
Speaker 1: twelve months, but also all of the European Commission jobs
25:11
Speaker 1: and everything else. It's a mess. It's at there's a
25:12
Speaker 1: lot of hallse trading going on. I'm gonna put you
25:15
Speaker 1: on the spot, Paul, who do you think it's going
25:18
Speaker 1: to be and when do you think we're going to
25:19
Speaker 1: find out? On just on the ECB president job. Yeah,
25:23
Speaker 1: it's it's quite a confluence of events. I mean, the
25:25
Speaker 1: political post tend to last for five years, the clans
25:28
Speaker 1: for eight years, so only once every forty years. Any
25:31
Speaker 1: student of maths will tell you do you get that coincidence?
25:35
Speaker 1: So it could take some time. It may not be
25:38
Speaker 1: resolved until shortly before potentially where every the ECB president
25:43
Speaker 1: post expires at the end of October. And as for
25:46
Speaker 1: who it is, well, I'll give you two basic assumptions
25:49
Speaker 1: most people are making. It's probably going to be a
25:52
Speaker 1: Northern European, although you would have to include France in
25:55
Speaker 1: that mix. Not everybody sees Frances nor the European but
25:59
Speaker 1: it's it's in the shot of the chances been deciding
26:02
Speaker 1: for a while whether it's a Southern European or it
26:04
Speaker 1: still isn't there exactly right, And the second point is
26:08
Speaker 1: it's very very unlikely to be a woman. Well, that
26:11
Speaker 1: is definitely true when you look at who's in leadership
26:13
Speaker 1: positions across central banks across Europe. Oh for Shane. Thank
26:17
Speaker 1: you very much, Paul. I know what is going to continue.
26:20
Speaker 1: This horse race is going to produce lots of great
26:22
Speaker 1: stories for us, and we do have that ongoing pole
26:24
Speaker 1: you mentioned of economists for who they think is going
26:28
Speaker 1: to replace Mario Druggie, which involves a nice graphic with
26:31
Speaker 1: little bouncy heads, which I gather as quite popular in
26:34
Speaker 1: the corridors of Frankfurt in the Central Bank as well.
26:37
Speaker 1: Thank you very much, Paul. Thank you, thanks for listening
26:48
Speaker 1: to Stephanomics. Come back next week for more on the
26:51
Speaker 1: ground insights into the global economy. In the meantime, you
26:54
Speaker 1: can find us on the Bloomberg Terminal, website, app or
26:57
Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcast. We'd love if you took
27:00
Speaker 1: the time to rate and review our show so it
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Speaker 1: can reach more people. For more news and analysis from
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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Economics, follow at Economics on Twitter. You can also
27:10
Speaker 1: find me on at my Stephanomics. The story in this
27:14
Speaker 1: episode was reported and written by Katherine Bosley and Chris
27:17
Speaker 1: writer Helmuth Tromp assisted. It was produced by Magnus Hendrickson
27:22
Speaker 1: and edited by Scott Lamman, who is also the executive
27:25
Speaker 1: producer of Stephanomics. Chris and Katherine's original article on this
27:28
Speaker 1: topic was edited by David Rocks. Special thanks to Ferdinando
27:33
Speaker 1: Giuliano in Milan, Agatha Krantrall in Berlin, and Paul Gordon
27:37
Speaker 1: in Frankfurt. Francesco Leviy is the head of Bloomberg Podcasts.