Latest / Tectonic Takes / Episode 152: Not Mathematically But Spiritually Eliminated (W/ Justin Horneker)
Transcript
- speaker-0: Welcome back to the Tictonic Takes podcast where the sounds earthquakes are not mathematically but spiritually eliminated. With me, Ivan, today we've got Devin, we've got Abram, and we've got our guest today who is a huge St. Louis CSC fan and has covered them for many years through podcasting and writing. Justin, how are you doing today? Congrats on the win. speaker-1: Thank you. I'm happy to be back on the pod. It's been a couple of years, guess, hasn't it? So yeah, happy to talk to you guys. speaker-0: Yeah, it's been a bit while we tried to have, you know, guests whenever we can, but sometimes if you use pass by here and there, but we've had some great conversations, whether it's been about the World Cup even, or, you know, MLS talk as well. So pleasure to have you here. And it is bittersweet victory because while you get to enjoy a victory, two victories in a row, including the 2-0 win over Montreal. It feels a little bit too little too late and it's the exact opposite of what the San Jose Earthquakes are feeling where it's like where have the goals gone, have the victories gone for us? But we'll get your initial thoughts as you get a little bit of a spike in form for an otherwise disappointing season for St. Louis. speaker-1: Yeah, I mean, it's, it's good that's happening because they've needed something to latch onto just from a like, player mentality standpoint. And it's kind of been coming. They've been talking about just like feeling better ever since the coaching change and the first like three or so weeks. So like these results feel like what you've kind of been seeing building, but yeah, at this point, you would need an absolute miracle of every single team ahead of them losing and winning out for them to make the playoffs. So that is unlikely, but at least to see some positivity, some Like a little bit of growth without just depressing the early part of the season wise is good to see. speaker-0: And then you have the Sands Earthquakes who, despite poor results for last two plus months, we've been hanging around in ninth place somehow. Other results have been somewhat going our way here and there. That pretty much all changed this match weekend, but it doesn't really matter what else happens with the Texas teams or Real Salt Lake. The most important thing is that Sands Earthquakes had their fate in their own hands. And these last three games specifically, Austin, LFC, and St. Louis have been pretty big disappointments. So let's get initial thoughts from Devin and then Abram. speaker-2: It seems to be a consistency for every time we slowly enter the postseason. As we approach decision day, we're always trying to decipher which games are important to watch that are non-Quakes related because we are so close to that playoff line. ⁓ It's a year after year occurrence, but I'm looking forward to the day that we can finally solidify ourselves in the postseason, maybe at least two or three games beforehand. That said, the... the game on Saturday against St. Louis was quite disappointing and on our perspective anyway. ⁓ I know it was cool to see at least for St. Louis and we'll get into this shortly to see one of their players, you know, be called up from MLS Next Pro and bag a brace against us. I always like to encourage and promote from kind of like within in a way. And to see St. Louis doing that and to have one of their players strive. ⁓ was impressive to say the least. But going back to the earthquakes, there's just mass confusion. No one knows what they're doing. It seems like every player is up in arms anytime that, you know, a misplaced path, there's a misplaced pass. It's just pandemonium out there and I'm not really sure what the next steps are. speaker-3: ⁓ yeah, I mean, I could go on and rant myself about the terrible outlooks of the team, but I feel like Devon really covered everything. feel like there's a lot of disjointedness. I feel like ⁓ they have given up. They're not going to say that, you know, they're going to put on a good face for us, but from the product that we're seeing on the pitch, doesn't look good. ⁓ And we come on here every week and we do this every freaking week and it just gets worse and worse. ⁓ But obviously, you know, I love being here with you guys and that's probably the main benefit because I can't see anything to look forward to on the pitch, at least not right now. speaker-0: Right, and there's a lot of growing discontent from all angles, from supporters groups to any fan base really within the Sounds Earthquakes community. Bruce Arena, handled the loss to LAFC as well as he possibly could have in the press conference at Levi's Stadium. Granted, it's one thing when you're getting outclassed by Danny Buonga and Sun Hyung Min. And with all due respect to St. Louis, Roman Berkey is closest that they have to a player of that kind of stature and reputation there and Roman Burki he played very well but frankly he didn't have to do that much it really was Joao Claus, Brendan McSorley and pretty much this entire group effort from St. Louis that wanted this more. They came to San Jose and they looked confident from minute one and they executed so let's talk a little bit about this St. Louis City lineup and I want to hear what you thought when you saw that Brendan McSorley was getting this extended run and how he exceeded pretty much all expectations and then you can also share a little bit more about Where you think the lineup is how much change you think is needed for st Louis to get back to where they were in their inaugural MLS season speaker-1: Yeah, and not to twist the knife a little further, but this is also a bit of a depleted lineup. Say, Falu Fal, who has been there starting center back, he arrived in the summer. Henry Kessler, both of them, Kessler picked up an injury midweek. Falu Fal was sick like Thursday at training and then all of a was out. And then Song Benhuan, who they traded for from Minnesota, ⁓ is on just personal leave back in South Korea. So McSorley gets to step in because of Sang Bin's absence. And I think the notable thing is that Chris, they want with mix orally over Simon Becher, who had been kind of the left wing secondary striker stepping into that role until something got there. So knowing that mix orally, who signed his contract two weeks ago, got in last week against Dallas and then last week and sponsor all pretty good and then gets the start here and it's just flying next to Klaus, who is someone that they just have very good chemistry with. As far as like the rest of the lineup goes, kind of what we expected countered while. is doing a lot of good work on the right side as kind of the hybrid wingback gets forward a lot and then they kind of shift into more of a back three when Follum's pushing forward. then just Marcel Hartl has been having an incredible run over the past like month and a half since Critchley really kind of found a role for him playing that kind of if anyone remembers watching St. Pauli in their promotion run a couple years ago where Bevan Hursler now manager of Brighton was using Hartl in kind of this more free flowing attacking role and He has kind of settled into that similar role with Critchley here over the past month or so. And it's like really resulted in a lot of success in the attack in space because Hardell has had a lot of success like in generating things. And if you look at his expected numbers, they're very good among some of the best creators in MLS, but he just hasn't been able to, and St. Louis haven't had the finishing product really reward all the work they've done. they've been getting Some of that luck that they didn't have earlier in the season now here at the end of season doesn't do them much good, but it's good to have at least something to hang their hat on, building some momentum, how this looks when everyone is healthy again. Now they have some difficult decisions to make, but as far as like the lineup in a pinch, not knowing if Kyle Hebert or who that other center back was going to be for them to have this performance is encouraging. speaker-0: Yeah, and of the starting 11, I believe half this team are from the 2023 inaugural MLS season, is that correct? speaker-1: Let's see. Yeah, essentially. So yeah, Berkey and Hebert, who had been kind of like in the island of Misfit Toys for, know, since Critchley took over. So he has to step in after not playing since June. Eddouliven, Xiao Klaus, Celio Pompeo, those guys are all part of the initial 11. And then if you look back, like everyone else had been in City 2. Durkin was acquired last year. Padelford was acquired this year. Timo Baumgordel was a free agent signing this year. Conrad Wallum. on loan. Mekai Joyner, I guess you could technically say he was part of the team because he the Academy at that point. And then Simon Betcher and Thomas Staudelan were acquired last season. So that is how you get to this point. speaker-0: Right, yeah, so third season MLS, probably not enough time to have a complete turnover as you might have seen from LAFC who were there down to their last player from their inaugural MLS season. believe Segura for them. But yeah, we covered that trivia for you, Abram and Devin, so you don't have to answer the question for once this week. But I was interested because you looked at some of the players that have come to MLS since then with Bundesliga connections, if you go back for Hyunmin, with Leverkusen or Marco Royce of course that's been a big part of St. Louis's original identity with building a lot of players that play in the Bundesliga or German or German speaking in the case and Baumgartner is actual German I was thinking might be Austrian but I might have been confusing with the speaker-1: It's like, yeah, it's a lot of like leech van steele's connections along the way like see when Baumgurl was a guy that was a player that he brushed with in Germany and that's why he was like able to Just give a flyer on a guy, you same with Alfredo Morales. Morales was someone who had played for lewts when he was at Hoffenheim I believe but he had played for lewts previously and then he just they needed a six like so badly that they called him up for a trial of preseason and then he's been kind of Not to say like, critically important, but he like raised the floor of this team at a certain point when they needed someone to just like play the position competently. speaker-0: Yep, there we go. of course, Alfredo Morales was briefly with Sounds of Earthquake. Haha. ⁓ yeah. Yes indeed. I'm 35 years old now. speaker-1: Former Quakes legend. speaker-3: In terms of some of the most attractive players that have stepped foot on the pitch, such a handsome man, Alfred Amoreles. So in that sense, yes, definitely, but in other sense, not really. speaker-0: Yeah, I think Abram might be teasing another off-season pod topic. speaker-1: for us to discuss. speaker-3: Top 10 hottest earthquakes of all time. speaker-1: Handsome as Sari 11. speaker-0: There we go. mean, there's bound to be a 2026 World Cup article with that topic, whether it be by Unibisión or BuzzFeed, whatever the case may be. So we might as well be... speaker-1: Someone's riding it, Neyra. Might as well be you. speaker-0: Yeah, so while st. Louis they definitely have a decent looking roster where they should be more competitive than they have been in the this MLS season It probably is some frustration that they could have made bolder signings if they were going the Bundesliga route some of the things may have been more like flirting the lower table Bundesliga upper by Bundesliga quality of players so Where you think are some of the ways that things got? little bit derailed for St. Louis. speaker-1: this season. Yeah, I mean, honestly, injuries were a big part of it. And like some of that is just like some of that is signing players that had an injury history previously and then are just not able to stay healthy. That's kind of like the story of Looch Vanisjiel's tenure. And then, yeah, just a lot of the players that were signed like along the fringes or some kind of older aging out of Bundesliga players like and some of that is giving players a flyer like Timo Baumgordel had. a lot like he's a cancer survivor that was part of his story as well and then had a falling out at Schalke because Schalke at this point and needed a place to play and that's where like Fanon still found him, brought him in for preseason and he's been very good at times this year like inconsistent for sure but there have been times where he's been a clear good center back in this league and yeah I think there's it's hard to put the failings on the signings necessarily just because it's more that where St. Louis went wrong was in the coaching hire was kind of where things went sideways. I think if you give this roster to what be a David Critchley or to a different manager that like can get the most out of this roster, I think it is a playoff roster. But when you have a manager come in and kind of not understand their style and what we heard afterwards was just that like he was bad at explaining what he wanted from the players as well. So they're able to play well defensively but couldn't get anything out of the attack. And if you look at how this attack is going now and the players in that attack, like they should have been expecting to score more, expecting to create more, but it's taken a while to like build that back into the squad. So if I were to say like what really went wrong, it's not necessarily the signings as much as is the mangerial signing earlier in the year. And like, yeah, it's not a perfect roster by far, but it is one that the new scoring director should be able to come in and turn around pretty quickly. speaker-0: Yeah, and I think once again, this has been said more often than I ever expected to be for our Santa's Earthquakes podcast, but thank you, LA Galaxy, for being so bad that St. Louis kind of flew under the radar in that first half of the season between the win at overseal of Sounders on March 15th and the first time you beat us in May 31st. Again, Major League Soccer, why schedule this match with the UFH Champions League final? I don't know, but they did. The only win that came in between was in the U.S. Open Cup against Union Omaha. So that just puts you in a hole, even with nine teams making the playoffs right away. And you look at all these rosters in the Western Conference, I'm sure it's the same case in the Eastern Conference, that a few things go their way either way. You can make a case for any of these teams to make it. So that kind of run to start season or minute differences here and there, that can cost the team from what could be essentially a lost season. speaker-1: Yeah, the differences seem so small when you look at the roster. Like if you look at, I look at Dallas right now and I see how they're playing and that's a team that had been bad for a lot of the year, but I would not want to play them like right now heading into the playoffs with how they are and on the run they're on. So yeah, all these, even these teams in the West that are like down out of the playoff mix or fighting to get back into the playoff mix, those are still good teams with good players, but you have to. get everything right, can't afford to waste time. And St. Louis went on an 11 game winless streak. After they started well the first three matches and they went on 11 game losing streak, not, a winless streak. So you just can't afford to do that. And by that point, Chris really comes in, he needs a little bit of time to get things right. And not only are they not winning, they're having injuries, they're not doing a good enough job of promoting the young players into these positions, that now you can see at this point in the season has paid off for them, and in this game especially. speaker-0: Yeah, so that's been kind of where you can draw the comparisons between both San Jose earthquakes and St. Louis. San Luis had the slow start and San Jose earthquakes had the crash landing. And speaking of slow starts to an individual game, this happened not once, but twice, arguably three times in a row, thrice even, that's a word. And that's the thing that frustrates me heavily when you do not learn from your mistakes from the previous game or the game before that. And that's where we take this game to Devon where we start once again with a barrage of goals being conceded by the Salons Earthquakes. Like we can't even get past 10 minutes now without conceding a goal. And then 20 minutes without conceding multiple. speaker-2: I think that's what two games in a row now at least where the Santa's earthquakes concede three goals before the first half is over. ⁓ Was the game against LAFC, we walk into that, ⁓ walk into halftime three one down or was that three, three no. speaker-3: Yeah, three one. speaker-2: 3-1, okay, so exact same score at halftime as it was versus LAFC. ⁓ I don't know what the boys are doing in the training grounds. It seems like we've collected a bigger training ground. We've built a bigger training ground now, which is cool, but that doesn't really seem to help our case as we keep conceding multiple goals ⁓ before the first half is over and that kind of kills the rest of the momentum the rest of the game. ⁓ It's... an unfortunate story for the San Jose Earthquakes as know, kind of Abram alluded to at the very beginning, like it's just tough to keep coming back to this topic again and again every game, but you know, that's how it is. At this point, you can kind of debrief about individual performances. I can, ⁓ we could bring up some positives right now. Like, Osenibuuta still yet again, just like last weekend, he got the start ⁓ and he performed just like everyone kind of expected him to. He impressed, he dribbled, maneuvered around a bunch of St. Louis players effectively and created space for others, distributed well. ⁓ He had an impressive performance. And I think there were a couple of other players that I can't really specifically think of right now. At least Daniel Muni, I think, had a good performance and so did Danielle. ⁓ It was a good recovery for Muni. But on that note, there's just lots of confusion. And when I say confusion, mean, none of the players know exactly where they go. like watching Yosef Martinez since the Atlanta United days, as he came on as a sub, you can tell that there's, there's vigor in his eyes. There's energy, there's desire to want to score goals. Since he's been brought to the San Jose earthquakes after his, his hat trick. Um, and actually there's a connection I'd like to make here in a minute. Um, he's been very lackluster. speaker-1: He's speaker-2: not much energy, not much desire to put himself in the box in an intimidating way is the only way I can really describe it. And I can only kind of bring that back to a really big factor. that I believe is an evidence, it's okay. So this is evidence based off of the fact that Chicho Arango's goal celebration was posted to social media ⁓ honoring Hernan Lopez Munoz and Hernan Lopez Munoz. ⁓ Yeah, he lifted the 2-3 ⁓ and Hernan basically reposted that and said, you know, thank you brother. I miss you. There's, I think there's a statistical connection to the fact that these players that we've come to know so well and despite that it's, you know, I'm kind of alluding to the fact that these players at their peak We're not with the San Jose Earthquakes and these are players with like Chicho Arango, Josef Martinez, some guys that we brought over from other teams. We are used to seeing them perform at a high level on other teams and we were getting used to seeing them perform at a high level in the San Jose Earthquakes. However, I think there is some sort of issue that went on with Thernan Lopez and the club. kind of looked back at the statistical history on these players and a lot of our guys, our prominent figures fell off, not fell off, but they stopped producing around the time when Hernan Lopez Munoz was transferred back to ⁓ Argentina. ⁓ Espinoza hasn't been performing in the last couple of months, unfortunately. Josef Martinez, Chico Arango, they haven't been as big of a threat since that you know, since that time, sure, they're scoring, but they're also like scoring goals ⁓ on pens. ⁓ So yeah, they are producing, but not in the normal flow of play that we're used to seeing, ⁓ which I'm really happy that judges kind of stepped up in that in that case that I said a couple of good headers and attempts and whatnot. But I do think that there's confusion or something going on. ⁓ And the fact that, you know, Chicholurongo was alluding to ⁓ Hernán López Muñoz, I feel that there's a very big disconnect with the club and a lot of it think had to do with Hernán's departure. speaker-0: Yeah, thank you so much for that ⁓ observation and analysis, Devon. I understand you got to dip a little bit early, but ⁓ I really... ⁓ you can? speaker-2: Actually, I can stay now, so. Hey yeah, we're good. speaker-0: ⁓ Sweet ⁓ There we go. I do also want to add that you made some valid points that yeah, they're still scoring But that is like the bare minimum, especially from the penalty spot that we expect of those forwards and Unless you're asked in Villa when you have your cold stretch, you're gonna at least score goals here and there Someone has to score goals or points or get yards on even the worst teams of their respective sports So we can't just be like, ⁓ yeah great like that guy rushed for 76 yards we lost 34 to 7 but he had a good game it's like okay well you can't get zero yards like you can't get zero shots in a game of soccer like you gotta have higher standards than like ⁓ yeah we did some things here and there but that's kind of what we've been reduced to like we can point to Renato Vieira but I feel like the middle of the park was champagne problems like that was one of the few places where like we didn't really need reinforcements we need reinforcements in the back three because when you're leaking goals you don't just stick with the same defenders that you've been using all season you bring in another guy or two or three even within the next year by the time we're talking about this next year hopefully ⁓ Either the personnel changes or everyone takes a big leap. One of the two has to happen. And I frankly, the former seems more likely at this point. And even when I scored that penalty, like I felt like, okay, you better not check out after this game. Cause we've seen when that happens, like he gets a goal and then he thinks his job is done. It's like, yeah, you scored one goal, but as much as a goal is important, we still need you to do all the dirty work to keep the attack Turning go ahead Devon speaker-2: I also want to kind of praise St. Louis here because, you know, I'm trying to add more detail to these podcasts and just trying to create a more, you know, analytic atmosphere. Not that we don't already, ⁓ but I... speaker-3: like ⁓ speaker-2: I'll get right back to you, Abram, but... speaker-3: rest you can just sing. I've read the article. speaker-2: Um, I do want to compliment St. Louis on their defending because every single time we were in possession, you know, we like to play it around the back and kind of switch back and forth around the back line. And St. Louis did an excellent job. Anytime we made passes into our midfield area or midfield third, um, the earthquakes were just struggling to move the ball forward. And that's due to the fact that St. Louis closed us down. They basically made us play in like a 45, 30 yards. you know, square space. They did a really good job with pressing, pressing players and containing them and not having an out, if that makes sense. speaker-1: That's something that they've been working on a lot too. It's like they went from a very defensive system earlier in the year under Olaf Melberg, then they opened everything up to the point where they're just allowing so many goals. And then over the past three weeks or so, things have started to really like tighten up again with the structure. that's, that has been like a big point of improvement over the last few weeks. And if I could ask a question of like where you see things going wrong, is it more of just like the general defensive structure or do you think it is like the defensive personnel? speaker-2: I think it's a mix. think it's, it has to do with defensive personnel, but I also think it's player choice. I think it's player choice. And a lot of fans might agree, they might disagree, but I think, you know, when you're looking at our FB ref stats, Rodriguez is probably one of our best defenders and he's being benched for multiple games, not even seeing the field for some games, know, Boleru, Ian Harks, these are two guys that are prominent figures for the earthquakes now, despite not many people knowing. you know, their impact on the game, but we can see it as Earthquakes fans and analysts. ⁓ They're being benched and we're not really giving answers or we're not given answers as to why they're being benched. just kind of, anytime we ask Boosterina those questions, he kind of just brushes over it and was like, yeah, that's just my choice. That's how it is. speaker-0: Yeah, and some of the random Florianni earlier in the season, especially later in the season, Reid Roberts games have been head scratchers because when you're at the point of the season where you're just playing once a week, play your strongest 11 each week, barring injuries and suspensions, of course. Earlier in the season, I understand give these players these opportunities, but they're not performing at a certain level. When you get to July, August, September, those opportunities have to be fewer and further between. And we would come off a good performance from maybe a moon. or Rodriguez or Wilson and then all of sudden, ⁓ yeah, here's Reed Roberts again. And not every game was as dramatically bad as the one that he suffered against Austin, but had... ⁓ ⁓ More experienced defender bin and Roberts is positioned. Maybe we get a positive result from that game Those are those small moments that turn into avalanches giant snowballs running down the hill and then we crash and burn and now we're out of the playoff picture and Our last three games were on the road to San Diego scheduled loss on the road to Vancouver scheduled loss Who knows what's gonna happen in our home finale against Austin, but it's probably not gonna mean much at that point anyway so this was a game where this had to be win or go home and we're going home and because we were at home we didn't have to go that far. speaker-3: I don't know if that's answer to question, but I agree with those guys. The personnel, how we set them up, nothing seems to work, it's not good. speaker-1: Yeah, it was very interesting. Cause yeah, I obviously had watched a lot of Daniel Mooney and watched a lot of Max Floreani over the years. So I was curious if it was like specifically their performances or if it was more of just like the structure in between the lines and maybe given something that they're Bruce Arena is looking for something different. speaker-3: For Florian to give you some more insight since you seem to be somewhat invested in how he does, ⁓ he's not bad. He has lapses of focus which you can expect from young players, but in a back three you kind of hold up a lot of responsibility and I don't think that he's ready for that. ⁓ It's a very difficult, you know, system to play in, especially when, you know, it's not just him who is causing our defensive issues. There is defensive issues whether he's there or not. And so to ask him to fix that... is a big ask. ⁓ I also think that because of the fact that he's failed so many times already against really big opposition where he was kind of embarrassed against Arfsten and I'm like why'd you put him against Arfsten? Right? ⁓ Because of those moments I feel like he has a big hit to his confidence and when you're a defender you have to feel confident you have to feel like you're gonna win every single time. I think Reed Roberts is a very similar story but mirrored on the other side of the field. speaker-0: And we've seen this. Core players that are relatively inexperienced Perform well in the town and that's frankly where they should be for this season Reid Roberts was the anchor of the back line that just beat Ventura County 4-0 over the weekend and the town if you're looking at the broader scope of Bay Area soccer Bay FC on life support Oakland Roots still fighting for playoff spot, but that might not happen Sands Earthquakes, we already know what's going on there the town their second in the Western conference only to St. Louis' MLS Next Pro. speaker-1: See you in the playoffs again, I think. Yeah. speaker-3: Can ask a question about St. Louis and their Amulet Neck Pro journey right now? Yes. Or just overall, I remember getting absolutely destroyed by Caden Glover a few years ago. Where is that guy? What happened to him? Because he looked like he was going to be special, but it didn't seem to pan out that way. speaker-1: I think there's a couple things. think like there is some inherent pressure as the first ever homegrown player that they've kind of talked about. There's been some coaching changes, but that hasn't been as big of a deal as like he is kind of trying to find his position. They think that he's maybe even more as a 10 versus as a traditional nine. And there's been a lot of competition at the nine as well. Brendan McSorley, of course, and who you guys experienced this weekend, Amelia Eskalainen, they drafted last year and he's been getting most of the stars at the nine with Ken Glover. underneath as the 10 in sort of a more free flowing. But yeah, he has all the physical tools for sure. And I don't know what the real answer is outside of they just have maybe it's I would have to look into it more. But I do think it's maybe a usage thing of you he's not the guy that the ball is going through and he's not necessarily the guy things are being set up for. Like McKay Joyner, when he was before he was brought up full time was getting a lot of those licks. So I think it's it's that players have not say fast them up, but players were maybe more of the focal point versus Glover was kind of the focal point when he started next year, the first year and has had some growth over the last few years of just trying to figure out his position, trying to figure out his, just like how to use his body because he had a growth spurt as well. And I think that plays into part of it. So yeah, and they're taking their time with them. They're okay. He's still young. Him and Mackay both just turned 18. So still time. And you know, he's big out there, so he has the body for it. just. finding the right way to play the ten I think is where he goes from here. speaker-0: Yeah. Taking a look at the St. Louis 2 side, a few familiar faces in that lineup that beat Austin 2-1. Jayden Reed at 24 years old and Akil Watts at 25 years old. Still some time to grow and of course with a lot of American players, if they're coming out of college, they're coming into Major League Soccer 21 or 22. So you do need to invest a little bit more time in some of those guys. But a player that I'm excited to see, Kevin of a shot at the mid-week soccer level 20 year old white winger Miguel Perez. How do feel about his progress? speaker-1: Yeah, and maybe it's especially over and really the whole season of the next pro. He had kind of went out on loan last year to Birmingham and USL and just because of the way that their season went, you he wasn't playing great to begin with and then they kind of prioritize their own young players just because they weren't in playoff contention. So I think that struck his confidence a little bit. So coming back playing mostly all of the year with City two, I think it was kind of the plan just to have him get his confidence back. He's playing in more of a advanced role than he was in that first year where he was just pretty much a defensive midfielder. So now he's been playing a little bit everywhere. He played right fullback, he's played right wing, he's played attacking mid, he's played defensive mid, and he's been pretty good just about everywhere. like he's probably too good to be an X-Pro, but I don't know if they like they aren't ready to pull him up yet. And we'll see what happens next year with him. speaker-0: Awesome. Progress is never linear with any player. So we'll see what happens, but I'm excited to see that he's doing well. As for this game, so the stats that probably tell the story of this game and this season with how wasteful the Quakes have been on the offensive front, 57 % possession, 3.3 expected goals, 21 total shots, 10 shots on target. So there is a world where the San Jose Quakes could have maybe tied 3-3. something Devon but ultimately the first half damage was done by St. Louis second half they held par and we are dealing with a devastating loss speaker-2: Yeah, I mean at that point it's all damage control, you know, you've already been traumatized by a double score line, two games in a row. Trying to pull yourself out of that rut is really difficult and you I can only fault the players so much for that, although they are the ones on the field dictating the score of play. At least in terms of statistical purposes, I'd like to shoot this over to Abram just to kind of hear, he's ready to go. See here, his side of speaker-0: kind of shy. speaker-1: Thanks. speaker-3: I feel like the narrative that this game was difficult for the Quakes and that they weren't able to get forward is not entirely accurate. think it paints us as ⁓ being impotent and I think it paints St. Louis as not having as good of a defensive performance as they did. I think that Berkey actually had a very good game. Right, Justin, like he literally with one hand like just flew across the goal and then stopped it off the goal line. was an incredible. speaker-2: Picture S. speaker-1: Yeah, was probably his best performance of the year, speaker-3: Yeah, and I mean I wish it had come at some other time for you I wish the best for you guys just not win this against us ⁓ So yeah this game we had 23 shots total 11 shots on goal which ⁓ St. Louis also had 18 shots so that's about even with the amount of shots, but they only had six on goal ⁓ but Out of the 11 shots we had, 11 shots on target, sorry, we had 4.9 expected goals, which is a lot of XG, guys. That is a very big amount of XG when you're ⁓ taking into account that we only scored one time this game from a penalty. That's just ridiculous. And also, to shatter the on that, ⁓ St. Louis scored three goals on 2.5xG. And you know, it's great. They were more efficient with their chances. They outperformed their XG by 5.5xG, isn't... They squared about what you'd expect, but they did those things. And the nine saves from Berkey was phenomenal. This game could have been much different if you had just a slightly worse keeper in net. And I do think that we can't let that fact get away from us. I think that there's so many things about this team that were very frustrating to watch on Saturday. But I do think that the offense was not trying. Like, Budo was trying. Chicho had a lot of chances. Justin, from what I saw, I felt like Chicho would have been the guy that you're looking at and you're most scared of because he's getting so many shots off and also the reputation you're bringing with him. speaker-1: Yeah, he's always played against St. Louis well, with Real Salt Lake. And I remember him playing well earlier in the year, even I'm not sure if he scored in that game or not. yeah, he's always been a menace against St. Louis and they have not pained themselves in glory defensively most of the year. And I think once they went up three, one and a half, they kind of knew that San Jose would come back at him. were able to mitigate that and then of course you get good goalkeeping for Roman Berkey. Brendan McSorley saved one off the line too that like probably is a gold nine out of ten times. So yeah, it's, I wouldn't say this is a bad performance from like a over performance from San Jose versus like, I think it was a pretty even game that one team just got more of their execution versus the other. speaker-0: Yeah. speaker-2: I also think that Chicho late in the game too had a really good opportunity top of the box, ⁓ but he completely whiffed it and missed the net entirely, which you could see in the reaction on the big screen, he was pretty upset with himself. So going to like what Abram said statistically, the stats painted a more closer game than what we have visualized. ⁓ And I think if we had put more, not more chances on target, but if we had... Conducted like more dangerous opportunities. I definitely feel like the Like the level of interest I think could have been higher ⁓ for a fan, whereas kind of like the general consensus, we walk away from the stadium, I've like, maybe, maybe not, this doesn't really feel like ⁓ a good feeling, good win. speaker-3: I'd like to challenge that perspective with I think that this was a decent offensive performance. We've had better. We only scored one goal, right? I'm not going to say it was the best offensive performance I ever had. I think the defensive performance was so bad that it just totally erased the narrative of the offensive performance. I think that we have to give Chicho some credit. He worked very hard, Buddha a lot of credit, Judd, you know, working very hard to make those chances possible. but again this we I am disappointed in how this game went and I did leave the game with very little hope because It feels like it doesn't matter how how many clothes we score it doesn't matter how well we do We're gonna concede more than we score no matter what every single time speaker-2: You know, I think I'll agree with Abram for the most part on that. ⁓ I think there is an exception in a way, and I'd like to explain that of like, yeah, sure, we did have a lot of opportunities and offensively, you we don't really give our players enough credit. But I think at least during the game versus St. Louis, and I'd like to know kind of what Justin thinks on this, it seems like St. Louis did a really good job with kind of holding us back to a point where our shots and our attempts weren't that dangerous. Anytime Berkey was tested, it was kind of right to him. He was able to catch the ball. Yeah, he made a couple of impressive saves. But I think for the most part, a lot of those chances on target were aimed directly at Berkey, or it was a somewhat parable save. speaker-1: Yeah, I, uh, I don't know. sometimes struggle just cause I'm like painted by how they're have played defensively all year, but Oh, did freeze? Okay, sorry. Yeah, just with how they've played defensively all year, they haven't been able to really shut things down. But yeah, I think you're right in that they came in the second once they got that third goal, they came in the second half, knowing that as long as they like played a little bit less expansive than they did before, and were able to keep the quakes in front of them that like that would limit some of that. And then yeah, Berkey is just out of his mind over the last like 20 minutes of that game. speaker-3: I wanted to add statistically, Devin, to help answer. I do think that you're right in that the shots ended up not being good, but the chances were what was good. Like we got chances in good positions, but we underperformed to XG massively by 3.9. That's a lot of XG. Like each chance, right, is 0.45 XG. If we're just doing quick math, quick math. so, if we're gonna put that into terms that maybe my dad would understand, ⁓ if we're gonna, the chances that we had, if we took, take one of those, ⁓ if we took that chance 100 times, he'd score it 45 times. That's just like quick maths. And so, that's not amazing, but it's pretty good. speaker-2: on median. speaker-3: And they are chances that we should, if we're getting so many of those, like 11, you should be scoring more than one. And so the actual quality of the finishing is a problem. But the chance creation is surprisingly, in this game at least, it was there and just, I feel that St. Louis was able to, you know, really nullify it with like six block shots. That's nothing to scoff at. Nine saves, that's really good. you know they were able to step up defensively and I know you said that maybe they haven't been able to do that for all season but this is in my eyes a good defensive performance and even without the stats because Devon and I are usually the eye test versus stats guys. The eye test for me watching this game I felt that we had a lot of chances that we just weren't making the most of and so I feel like it backs it up with the numbers we're looking at. speaker-2: Any thoughts, Simon? speaker-0: Yeah, I think that... However, we dice it sounds earthquakes have maybe three of the five components you need to close out a game and it's a different three each game like it's One of those components that's constantly missing lately has been defending but everything else is just it feels like this collection of players has run out of ideas ran out of gas ran out of motivation anything that has guided them to the hot start they had this season. And I think that these next three games, we're just hoping to not lose embarrassingly to Vancouver and San Diego. And one last time in front of our home fans against Austin, maybe get a win. That's pretty much all that's left this season. Any concluding thoughts on the game from the San Jose Earthquakes perspective, Aver? speaker-3: ⁓ I ⁓ am disappointed. think that at one point this team would be ⁓ overperforming next year. I think that they have the confidence, that they the belief in themselves to score difficult goals, do the right thing, ride games out and get that goal that we need at the right time. ⁓ the grit mentality that we've been trying to cultivate and promote, but it is fading quickly. think every game ⁓ we see another tear in that banner of ⁓ grit FC. And I really liked being that team that was doing that. ⁓ And so it sucks to see, and it doesn't look like... ⁓ things will get better unless we make some big changes to how this team is... it's a philosophy, it's a morale behind the team, it's not just like, you go here, you go here. It's not as simple as that, it's interpersonal relationships with not just the coaching staff but the players amongst themselves. It's a lot of things. speaker-0: Definitely concluding thoughts. speaker-2: I think Abram just stole all my words. So I want to shoot it over to Justin and kind of ask you, like, are your thoughts on the rest of the season? You know, your opponents. ⁓ What are you looking forward to? speaker-0: And specifically, I'll add to that question, Justin. If you had to prefer which of the two home games you'd rather win against, the tougher opponent or the season closer, what would it be? speaker-1: That's tough. mean, I think if you lose to LAFC, especially with how LAFC have been playing, like that is kind of very excusable, especially with how like the season has gone. like leaving the year on a high, being Real Salt Lake, I think would mean more than being LAFC. But if they beat LAFC three game win streak, that'd be the first time that's happened for them all year, I think would be very big for David Critchley, who is managing for potential to get the full-time job. Everything's up in the air without a, without a sporting director, without a manager next year, they have a lot of, a lot of moves to make, a lot of roster overhaul to do. But yeah, if I'm looking at the end of the season, like I don't think, I think even the most optimistic St. Louis fan would not be expecting a result against LAFC, against Austin, against Real Salt Lake, like you have to show that this improvement you've seen over the past month can turn into wins against teams that are where you kind of should be in the table. speaker-0: Yep, and as all of us have followed Major League Soccer for a decade or two at this point, ⁓ we know that once each team is done for the season and then gets eliminated from the playoffs, we get a dozen players per team. It's like, okay, we are not extending their option. There's a lot of players in MLS always on one-year contracts and you see many players go from MLS club to MLS club that this is an important last few games for those players, for a lot of players. speaker-1: Yeah, they've been players in St. Louis have been talking about that over the past ever since Lutz was fired as well of just like, knowing that their jobs are kind of on the line that they need to perform for that. And I think it's kind of driving some of what you're seeing as well. speaker-0: And in the spirit of the previous time that you mean able had talked about the 2022 World Cup and that's a conversation that we hope to send an invitation to you in the future for the 2026 World Cup ⁓ Where some story lines are you looking forward to ahead of that World Cup? know that you're probably joining all of us and being concerned about how the US men's national team are playing It did get a win against the top 25 opponent But Japan was kind enough to rotate their entire team to make that happen ⁓ thoughts about that coming World Cup. speaker-1: Yeah, I definitely don't feel good about this US group. That's for sure. Yeah, I think I feel better. I kind of wrote about it after the last window, but like I'd feel better if things were consistent with the lineups and they were playing well, as opposed to like, you know, we haven't seen Weston McKennie with this group yet, like in a while, all the calamity of the gold cup and just like the Christian Pulasik, Pochettino stuff. Yeah, there's not a lot of positivity, ⁓ not a lot of reasons to feel good about it. But You know, it's, should be a group of players, right? It's like what we always talk about. Like this should be a group that can put together good performances. Like if you look at how they perform, like Willie Tillman had a great game for Leverkusen this week. Christian Puelstake had like one of the best games I've ever seen him play. Chris Richards with Crystal Palace. Like that was a defensive performance that I don't think has ever been replicated by a US player before. like it's hard for me to draw the line of like watching these guys. with their club teams play well and then for the USMNT to be so like lackluster. speaker-0: Yeah, it is frustrating to see that you think you have all the pieces together and yet the end product is nowhere near as good. It's kind of like an analogy for the sands earthquakes right now, but also from my perspective. speaker-1: Are they managed by a former US men's attitude manager? that have anything to do speaker-0: Yeah, it turns out he led the US Miss national team to a quarterfinal if the this USA team makes it to the quarterfinal of this World Cup like I Will be the happiest person to see how well they do like I don't know what I would do Probably just go running a mile of a certain direction in pure joy if that happens ⁓ That would be funny, but also I do have to keep an eye on you know being Mexican-American that how Mexico are doing in speaker-3: you speaker-0: how in some cases there's slightly more optimism particularly among young players like Rodrigo Huesca's playing in Champions League for Copenhagen or ⁓ 16 year old Gilberto Moura for Tijuana that there is still concern that we couldn't beat Japan or South Korea in the window either so and When I say those things I want to make it very clear that they're good teams But for both Mexico and the United States the key to getting out of the group and unfortunately getting past the first knockout round has eluded them in recent World Cups. But getting out of the group you just didn't need to beat the Polans of the world, the Algerias of the world, the Ghanas of the world. So if you're not beating South Korea, which is a very similar test that you might face, and Iran for example in the last World Cup in USA's case, then you might not even get out of the group. So yeah, that's something that Abram and I expressed our concerns about in our previous podcast when we covered Mexico versus Japan over the international. break that it seems like the same old story and then of course the joke that even if Mexico does get to El Quinto Partido that has been the biggest talking point in Mexican soccer culture now it just means we're back at the round of again. speaker-1: Yeah, I'm a little bit worried about all three of the concaphos nations and we're being real. speaker-0: Canada though, congratulations to them. They did beat Romania and Wales in the last break and they've reached their highest ever FIFA ranking. hey, Canada, you're like, look at you two losers. speaker-1: Like five, Jesse Marsh wants nothing to do. speaker-0: The last thing I'll ask for each of us is that with the playoffs not featuring either or two teams, barring a miracle, what's one team that we are rooting for and, you know, for the Quakes people here, we will exclude ourselves from the one team we're rooting against because we know the answer is LAFC. for ⁓ got Thomas Mueller over there. No, I'm not taking credit for that, but that was kind of a nice little coincidence. Even though I didn't get a chance to see Thomas Mueller play, I'd be happy to see Vancouver Whitecaps do well. And then I'll turn it over to Abram. speaker-3: You know, I think Austin had a really hard time ⁓ in the middle of their ⁓ MLS tenure. I feel like they had a really strong start similar to St. Louis. They had a big dip in the middle that I felt bad for them. I've always had a soft spot for Austin. I enjoy the vibes of their stadium. ⁓ When I was working at Area Sports, I always liked posting their stuff on Instagram. because their photographers were very good. just for reasons like that, I have to say often, like, yeah, I hope they end up doing well. speaker-0: All right, Devin, who's your pick? speaker-2: ⁓ I had to quickly sift through to see who's actually in a playoff spot and who's currently not ⁓ That being that being said, I don't think that really shifted my my direction of focus ⁓ Philadelphia Union, I would love to see Philadelphia Union take home MLS Cup. I was rooting for them versus LAFC in LA Or yeah, I think it was either way versus LAFC. ⁓ I think they resemble a lot of a lot like the San Jose Earthquakes. have a great academy system. They bring a lot of players out, send them up to Europe, even though we don't really do that. We just kind of send them off to like Oakland Roots or some USL club and then ⁓ Europe buys them from them. ⁓ you know, they resemble a lot like the Earthquakes and I really want them to see, you know, an MLS trophy in their trophy cabinet at the end of the season. speaker-0: Yep, and even though it wasn't the right fit for the earthquakes, we do appreciate the generosity in allowing us to acquire Jamiro Montero. speaker-3: for a hot minute. So nice. He was good for a little bit for the first season and then never again. speaker-0: Right. So Justin, can go bad news, good news. The team you're rooting against and the team you're rooting for. speaker-1: Okay. I think I'm going to phrase this as less a team I'm rooting against and a team that I, I just like see falling apart at the seams. ⁓ unfortunately, I think like, cause I was pulling for Nashville earlier in the year. I think like a of weeks ago, I talked about how I thought that I could talk myself into a Nashville cuff run, but they have like kind of fallen apart at the seams lately. So I think I'm not sure how much juice there is left with Nashville SC and then As far as who I'm rooting for, think Vancouver, like I said, Ivan, there's a lot going for them. I like the way they play. They're very exciting team to watch. And then the Thomas Mueller of it all, as well, if he can come in. And the way that he's just been, kind of that floating extra piece that seems to be the cherry on top to what they built this year, I think that's a good team. And if it's an LAFC Vancouver Westerner Conference final, I think that's going to be a very good game. speaker-0: Yeah, so Nashville's an interesting case because after they beat Orlando 5-1 on Saturday, August 23rd, they've lost their last three MLS games. Granted, aside from Atlanta United, those losses came against good teams, Cincinnati and Orlando. But if you're looking to get to the MLS Cup final, you have get past the Cincinnati or an Orlando. And they may have exchanged some of that good momentum in MLS to maybe they'll be lifting the US Open Cup and set. So maybe not all is lost for Nashville. show. speaker-1: Yeah, I just like I they're on such a high and then they just I don't know what happened. Yeah, because the US Open Cup game like they looked like they were coming back to themselves. They beat Orlando, like you said, and then they said have that game against Atlanta was kind of like the I don't know. I think that might have been the death knell for their MLS Cup hopes. speaker-2: Looking at their stats right now, it's kind of shocking that they have an MLS Golden Boot candidate plus Hany Mukhtar at 52 goals for and 38 goals against and yet they're only sitting seventh. speaker-1: Yeah, and then they that they were sitting higher. And they beat Chicago 7-0 at one point this year too. Like, yeah, it seemed like they just going to be a buzzsaw in the East and yeah, kind of similar to San Jose that they have just run out of steam at the worst time, seems like. speaker-0: And we got Nashville versus Austin US Open Cup Finals, so I feel slightly less bad about losing to Austin in the US Open Cup. speaker-3: I mean, they still suck. Like, that was a very frustrating game. yeah. I mean, if you can lose to anyone, lose to the one of the guys in the final, at least. speaker-0: And that's what happens when you put your strong lineups in the US Open Cup and you get far enough to potentially lose to a finalist. So, Sam's Earthquakes, they took a slight step in the right direction in the US Open Cup, but it does not sugarcoat the tragic end to this season. And also, sadly enough, this is the end of our podcast for this episode, but before we go, Justin, once again, thank you so much for coming on with us once again. Where can people find you on social media and what things you have to Thank speaker-1: Yeah, happy to come by. Thank you for inviting me. Yeah, you can find me at Hornaker Justin. I pretty much post on Blue Sky as my main mode of posting at this point. And then my newsletter, Talking Soccer, that's where I cover my St. Louis City stuff. I also cover other things in U.S. Soccer. I know we sell MLS. And then if you ever want to follow St. Louis News, I write for St. Louis Magazine with my St. Louis City coverage. So that's where you can find me. speaker-0: Yep, and you know where to find us, whether it be Blue Sky, Twitter, Instagram, Tectonic Takes, and we're all individually there as well. We will come back ⁓ next week and we'll see what kind of game we have to analyze for the Sounds of Earthquakes. ⁓ We shudder to say it can't get much worse, but this is the Sounds of Earthquakes we're talking about. We got three games less this season and then we'll still talk about the playoffs even if we're not in it. But as always, go Quakes.